Artículo completo - Universidad Autónoma de Aguascalientes

3UR\HFWR*HQRPD+XPDQR
6,78$&,Ð1$&78$/<3(563(&7,9$6
/$4%'DQLHO&HUYDQWHV*DUFtD
/$4%&ODXGLD5HEHFD*RQ]iOH]5XL]
'UHQ&1HW]DKXDOFy\RWO0D\HN3pUH]
,1752'8&&,Ð1
/DV FpOXODV VRQ ODV XQLGDGHV IXQGDPHQWDOHV
GHFDGDVLVWHPDGHYLGD7RGDVODVLQVWUXFFLRQHV
TXH VH QHFHVLWDQ SDUD GLULJLU VXV DFWLYLGDGHV
HVWiQ FRQWHQLGDV GHQWUR GHO '1$ HO iFLGR
GHVR[LUULERQXFOHLFR /D VHFXHQFLD GH '1$ HV
HO DUUHJOR SDUWLFXODU GH EDVHV D OR ODUJR GH OD
KHEUD SRU HMHPSOR $77&&**$ (VWH RUGHQ
H[SOLFDGHWDOODGDPHQWHODVLQVWUXFFLRQHVH[DFWDV
UHTXHULGDV SDUD FUHDU XQ RUJDQLVPR SDUWLFXODU
FRQ VXV UDVJRV FDUDFWHUtVWLFRV (O JHQRPD HV HO
MXHJR FRPSOHWR GH '1$ GH XQ RUJDQLVPR /D
SDODEUD JHQRPD HV XQ WpUPLQR DFXxDGR SRU
:LQNOHUHQFRPRXQDFRQMXQFLyQHQWUH*(1\
FURPRV20$/RVJHQRPDVYDUtDQH[WHQVDPHQWH
HQ WDPDxR PLHQWUDV TXH HO JHQRPD PiV
SHTXHxR FRQRFLGR GH XQ RUJDQLVPR YLYLHQWH
XQD EDFWHULD FRQWLHQH DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH
SDUHVGHEDVHV GH '1$HO JHQRPDGHO
KXPDQR\GHOUDWyQWLHQHQDSUR[LPDGDPHQWHê
8QLGDG GH /DERUDWRULRV GH ,QJHQLHUtD \ ([SUHVLyQ
*HQpWLFD'HSDUWDPHQWRGH%LRTXtPLFD)DFXOWDGGH
0HGLFLQD8QLYHUVLGDG$XWyQRPDGH1XHYR/HyQ$Y
)UDQFLVFR,0DGHURHVT(GXDUGR$JXLUUH3HTXHxRV
Q&30RQWHUUH\0p[LFR7HO(
PDLOFHUYDQWHVGDQLHO#JPDLOFRP
'HSDUWDPHQWR GH )LVLRORJtD &HQWUR GH &LHQFLDV
%iVLFDV 8QLYHUVLGDG $XWyQRPD GH $JXDVFDOLHQWHV
$Y8QLYHUVLGDG$JXDVFDOLHQWHV0p[LFR
&HQWUR GH %LRWHFQRORJtD *HQyPLFD ,QVWLWXWR
3ROLWpFQLFR 1DFLRQDO %OYG GHO 0DHVWUR VQ HVTXLQD
(OtDV3LxD5H\QRVD0p[LFR
NE(O'1$GHOJHQRPDKXPDQRVHHQFXHQWUD
GLVSXHVWRHQFURPRVRPDVGLVWLQWRV/RVJHQHV
VRQ ODV VHFXHQFLDV HVSHFtÀFDV GH ODV EDVHV TXH
FRGLÀFDQLQVWUXFFLRQHVGHFRPRKDFHUSURWHtQDV
R51$ULERVRPDOGHWUDQVIHUHQFLDRULER]LPDV
/DFRQVWHODFLyQGHWRGDVODVSURWHtQDVSURGXFLGDV
HQXQDFpOXODHVOODPDGDSURWHRPD
'(6&5,3&,Ð1'(/352<(&72
*(120$+80$12
(O 3UR\HFWR *HQRPD +XPDQR 3*+ IXH
RÀFLDOPHQWH LQLFLDGR HQ ORV (VWDGRV 8QLGRV GH
$PpULFDHOGHRFWXEUHGH(OREMHWLYR3*+
GHO HV FRQRFHU OD VHFXHQFLD GHO '1$ GH ORV FURPRVRPDV KXPDQRV DXWRVRPDV PiV ORV
FURPRVRPDV<\;TXHGHWHUPLQDQHOVH[R'XUDQWH
ORV SULPHURV DxRV GHO SUR\HFWR VH SUHSDUDURQ
PDSDV ItVLFRV GH FDGD FURPRVRPD KXPDQR
FRQ HO ÀQ GH REWHQHU SDUD PDUFDGRUHV
GH VHFXHQFLDV LGHQWLÀFDEOHV ORFDOL]DGRV FDGD
EDVHV $GHPiV GHO JHQRPD KXPDQR
HO 3*+ WDPELpQ LQFOX\H VHFXHQFLDU HO JHQRPD
GH YDULRV RUJDQLVPRV ´PRGHORµ WDOHV FRPR
EDFWHULDV(VFKHULFKLDFROLêESOHYDGXUDV
6DFFKDURP\FHV FHUHYLVLDH ê ES
QHPDWRGRV&DHQRUKDEGLWLVHOHJDQVêES
OD PRVFD GH OD IUXWD 'URVRSKLOD PHODQRJDVWHU
ê ES\HOUDWyQ0XVPXVFXOXVê
ES(OREMHWLYRGHO3*+FRQVLVWHEiVLFDPHQWHHQ
FRPSLODUXQDVHFXHQFLDGHOHWUDV\HQFRQRFHUHO
VLJQLÀFDGRGHGLFKDVHFXHQFLD
(O3*+WLHQHFRPRREMHWLYRVHVSHFtÀFRV
5HYHODU OD VHFXHQFLD GH DPLQRiFLGRV GH
FDGD SROLSpSWLGR FRGLÀFDGR SRU QXHVWURV
JHQHV0HGLDQWHHODQiOLVLVGHODVVHFXHQFLDV
VHFRQRFHUiODIXQFLyQSUREDEOHGHGLFKRV
SROLSpSWLGRV
2EWHQHULQIRUPDFLyQGHWDOODGDDFHUFDGH
ODVVHFXHQFLDVTXHSDUWLFLSDQHQHOFRQWURO
GHODH[SUHVLyQGHORVJHQHV
,GHQWLÀFDU ORV JHQHV TXH FDXVDQ
HQIHUPHGDGHVKXPDQDVRTXHFRQWULEX\HQ
D HOODV DVt FRPR GHWHUPLQDU ORV FDPELRV
HQ OD VHFXHQFLD TXH GHWHUPLQDQ OD
HQIHUPHGDG
2EWHQHU FRQRFLPLHQWRV DFHUFD GH OD
HYROXFLyQDOQLYHOPROHFXODU/RVSURGXFWRVGH
ORVJHQHVFDUDFWHUtVWLFRVGHOKRPEUHD\XGDUiQ
D H[SOLFDU SRUTXp VRPRV ELROyJLFDPHQWH
GLIHUHQWHVDRWURVRUJDQLVPRV
'LVSRQHU GH OD LQIRUPDFLyQ SDUD REWHQHU
FXDOTXLHU JHQ SDUWLFXODU HQ PXHVWUDV GH
'1$\FRQWLQXDUODLQYHVWLJDFLyQHQELRORJtD
PROHFXODUKXPDQD
3URSRUFLRQDUODRSRUWXQLGDGSDUDHODERUDU
SURWHtQDV KXPDQDV DQWHV GHVFRQRFLGDV
FRQYDORUSRWHQFLDOHQPHGLFLQD
(Q VH SURSXVR XQ SUR\HFWR FRQ OD
ÀQDOLGDG GH VHFXHQFLDU ORV QXFOHyWLGRV GHO
JHQRPD KXPDQR (Q HO 3*+ VH LQLFLy
RÀFLDOPHQWH HQ ORV (8$ EDMR OD GLUHFFLyQ GH
ORV ,QVWLWXWRV 1DFLRQDOHV GH 6DOXG 1,+ \ HO
'HSDUWDPHQWR GH (QHUJtD GH (8$ '2( FRQ
XQ SODQ GH DxRV \ ELOORQHV GH GyODUHV SDUD
FRPSOHWDUODVHFXHQFLDGHOJHQRPD(O
GH DEULO GHO HO &RQVRUFLR ,QWHUQDFLRQDO GH
6HFXHQFLDFLyQGHO*HQRPD+XPDQRGLULJLGRHQ
ORV(8$SRUHO,QVWLWXWR1DFLRQDOGH,QYHVWLJDFLyQ
GHO*HQRPD+XPDQR1+*5,\HO'2(DQXQFLy
ODWHUPLQDFLyQH[LWRVDGHO3*+FRQGRVDxRVGH
DQWLFLSDFLyQ/DVHFXHQFLDWHUPLQDGDSURGXFLGD
SRUHO3*+FXEUHPiVGHOGHODVUHJLRQHVGH
JHQHVFRQWHQLGDVHQHOJHQRPDKXPDQR\pVWDV
KDQVLGRVHFXHQFLDGDVFRQXQDSUHFLVLyQGH
/D VHFXHQFLD GH FDGD FURPRVRPD
KXPDQRVHHQFXHQWUDQDGLVSRVLFLyQGHOS~EOLFR
HQODVLJXLHQWHSiJLQDZHEKWWSZZZQFELQOP
QLKJRYJHQRPHJXLGHKXPDQ
0(72'2/2*Ì$'(/352<(&72
*(120$+80$12
(O 3*+ DO WUDWDUVH GH XQ SUR\HFWR TXH
SUHWHQGH LGHQWLÀFDU OD VHFXHQFLD FRPSOHWD
GHO JHQRPD KXPDQR WDQWR ODV VHFXHQFLDV
FRGLÀFDQWHV H[RQHV FRPR ODV QR FRGLÀFDQWHV
LQWURQHV QHFHVLWD GH WpFQLFDV TXH SHUPLWDQ
LGHQWLÀFDUHOOXJDUORFXV\ODGLVWDQFLDHQTXHVH
HQFXHQWUDQGLFKRVJHQHV/DVHFXHQFLDFLyQHVHO
SURFHVRSRUHOFXDOVHLGHQWLÀFDQODVVHFXHQFLDV
HQ TXH HVWiQ XQLGDV ORV ê SDUHV GH EDVHV
\ SRVWHULRUPHQWH VDEHU TXp VLJQLÀFDQ GLFKDV
VHFXHQFLDV (Q XQ SULQFLSLR VH DFRUGy
TXH HO 3*+ VH UHDOL]DUtD HQ GRV HWDSDV XQD GH
OLJDPLHQWR R FDUWRJUDItD JHQpWLFD GH WRGRV ORV
FURPRVRPDV HWDSD TXH WHUPLQy HQ \ RWUD
TXH FRUUHVSRQGH D OD VHFXHQFLDFLyQ TXH LQLFLy
HQ\FRQFOX\yHQDEULOGHO([LVWHQGRV
FDWHJRUtDVSULQFLSDOHVGHWpFQLFDVGHFDUWRJUDItD
JHQpWLFD OLJDPLHQWR R FDUWRJUDItD JHQpWLFD
TXHVyORLGHQWLÀFDHORUGHQUHODWLYRGHORVJHQHV
DORODUJRGHOFURPRVRPD\FDUWRJUDItDItVLFD
TXHVRQPpWRGRVPiVSUHFLVRVSDUDGHWHUPLQDUODV
GLVWDQFLDVHQWUHJHQHVGHQWURGHOFURPRVRPD
/D FDUWRJUDItD PHGLDQWH OLJDPLHQWR VH
GHVDUUROOy D SULQFLSLRV GHO VLJOR ;; JUDFLDV DO
WUDEDMR GH 7+ 0RUJDQ (O PDSD GH OLJDPLHQWR
GH 0RUJDQ ORFDOL]D XQD VHULH GH VHFXHQFLDV
PDUFDGRUDV XQD FRQ UHVSHFWR D RWUD \ FRQ
UHVSHFWRDXQJHQGHIHFWXRVR'HHVWDPDQHUD
VH SXHGH GHWHUPLQDU OD UHJLyQ FURPRVyPLFD
TXH FRQWLHQH XQ JHQ PXWDGR TXH VH KHUHGD
GH DFXHUGR FRQ ODV /H\HV GH 0HQGHO (Q HO PDSD JHQpWLFR GHO 3*+ FRQWHQtD PDUFDGRUHV XELFDGRV D PHQRV GH XQ PLOOyQ GH
SDUHVGHEDVHVXQRGHORWUR
/DFDUWRJUDItDItVLFDGHWHUPLQDODGLVWDQFLDUHDO
HQWUHSXQWRVGLIHUHQFLDGRVGHORVFURPRVRPDV/DV
WpFQLFDVPiVSUHFLVDVFRPELQDQUREyWLFDXVRGH
OiVHUHLQIRUPiWLFDSDUDPHGLUODGLVWDQFLDHQWUH
PDUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRV3DUDUHDOL]DUHVWRVPDSDV
VH H[WUDH HO '1$ GH ORV FURPRVRPDV KXPDQRV
\ VH URPSH DOHDWRULDPHQWH HQ QXPHURVRV
IUDJPHQWRV $ FRQWLQXDFLyQ pVWRV VH GXSOLFDQ
YDULDV YHFHV HQ HO ODERUDWRULR SDUD DQDOL]DU ODV
FRSLDVLGpQWLFDVREWHQLGDVOODPDGDVFORQHV/RV
FORQHV TXH FRPSDUWHQ YDULDV PDUFDV SURFHGHQ
SRU OR JHQHUDO GH VHJPHQWRV VXSHUSXHVWRV GHO
FURPRVRPD /DV UHJLRQHV GH VXSHUSRVLFLyQ GH
ORV FORQHV SXHGHQ D FRQWLQXDFLyQ FRPSDUDUVH
SDUD GHWHUPLQDU HO RUGHQ JOREDO GH ODV PDUFDV
DORODUJRGHOFURPRVRPD\ODVHFXHQFLDH[DFWD
TXHRFXSDQLQLFLDOPHQWHORVVHJPHQWRVGH'1$
FORQDGRV/RVPDSDVItVLFRVHVSHFLÀFDQGLVWDQFLDV
ItVLFDV TXH VH SXHGHQ PHGLU HQ SDUHV GH EDVHV
SE R DOJXQR GH VXV P~OWLSORV (O PDSD ItVLFR
FRUUHVSRQGHDODSURSLDVHFXHQFLDGHOJHQRPD
3HUR DQWHV GH OOHJDU D REWHQHUOD KD\ TXH
HODERUDUPDSDVItVLFRVSDUWLHQGRGHUHVROXFLRQHV
EDMDV \ DYDQ]DQGR KDFLD ODV UHVROXFLRQHV FDGD
YH]PD\RUHV(QFLHUWDPDQHUDORVPDSDVItVLFRV
GH PHQRU UHVROXFLyQ VRQ ORV SURSLRV FDULRWLSRV
OD YLVXDOL]DFLyQ PLFURVFySLFD GH OD GRWDFLyQ
FURPRVyPLFD KDSORLGH KXPDQD WHxLGD FRQ
FRORUDQWH GH *LHPVD PXHVWUD XQ SDWUyQ
DOWHUQDQWHGHEDQGDVFODUDV\RVFXUDVHQHOTXH
FDGDEDQGDWLHQHXQDPHGLDGHXQRVPLOORQHV
GHSDUHVGHEDVHV
$
(QHO3*+VHXWLOL]ySULPRUGLDOPHQWHXQPpWRGR
GHVHFXHQFLDFLyQGHVDUUROODGRSRUHOELRTXtPLFR
EULWiQLFR \ GRV YHFHV SUHPLR 1REHO )UHGHULFN
6DQJHU (VWH PpWRGR FRQVLVWH HQ UHSOLFDU SLH]DV
HVSHFtÀFDV GH '1$ \ PRGLÀFDUODV GH PRGR
TXH WHUPLQHQ HQ XQD IRUPD ÁXRUHVFHQWH GH
XQR GH ORV FXDWUR QXFOHyWLGRV (Q ORV PRGHUQRV
VHFXHQFLDGRUHV DXWRPiWLFRV GH '1$ HO
QXFOHyWLGR PRGLÀFDGR VLWXDGR DO H[WUHPR GH
XQD GH HVWDV FDGHQDV VH GHWHFWD FRQ XQ KD]
GH OiVHU \ VH GHWHUPLQD HO Q~PHUR H[DFWR GH
QXFOHyWLGRV GH OD FDGHQD $ FRQWLQXDFLyQ VH
FRPELQDHVWDLQIRUPDFLyQHQXQRUGHQDGRUSDUD
UHFRQVWUXLU OD VHFXHQFLD GH SDUHV GH EDVHV GH
OD PROpFXOD RULJLQDO GH '1$ )LJXUD /RV PDSDV ItVLFRV GH PD\RU UHVROXFLyQ VH VXHOHQ
HODERUDU D SDUWLU GH JHQRWHFDV ELEOLRWHFDV
&
'1$%ODQFR
G$73
G$73
G$73
G$73
G*73
G&73
G*73
G&73
G*73
G&73
G*73
G&73
G773
G773
G773
G773
GG773
GG&73
GG*73
GG$73
'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQSRU
DFFLyQGHFDORU
G1G1G1G1G7
G*
G1G&
G1G1G1G1G1G1G$
G1G1G1G1G1G1G1G7
G1G1G&
G1G1G1G1G1G*
G1G1G1G$
(OHFWURIRUHVLVFDSLODUHQ
JHOGHSROLDFULODPLGD
3ROR1HJDWLYR
'
%
7
+LEULGDFLyQHQVHFXHQFLD
FRPSOHPHQWDULD
$
*
7
$
&
&
*
,QLFLDGRU
(ORQJDFLyQSRUDFFLyQGH
6HFXHQDVD
'HWHFWRU
/DVHU
3ROR3RVLWLYR
)LJXUD6HFXHQFLDFLyQSRUHOPpWRGRGH6DQJHU$$PEDVFDGHQDVGH'1$SXHGHQVHUVHSDUDGDVSRUDFFLyQGHDOWDVWHPSHUDWXUDV
“ƒ&%8QROLJRQXFOHyWLGRLQLFLDGRUVHHPSOHDSDUDSHUPLWLUDODHQ]LPD'1$SROLPHUDVDVHFXHQDVDDJUHJDUHOVLJXLHQWH
QXFOHyWLGR&6HUHDOL]DQFXDWURPH]FODVGHUHDFFLyQHQODVFXDOHVFDGDXQDFRQWHQGUiORVFXDWURQXFOHyWLGRV\XQGLGHVR[LQXFOHyWLGR
PDUFDGR'/DVUHDFFLRQHVVRQVHSDUDGDVHQXQJHOGHHOHFWURIRUHVLVFDSLODUGHSROLDFULODPLGD\FDGDEDQGDJHQHUDGDHVGHWHFWDGD
SRUXQOiVHU
GH JHQHV HQ ODV TXH HO JHQRPD D HVWXGLDU VH
HQFXHQWUD IUDJPHQWDGR HQ PXOWLWXG GH WUR]RV
DOHDWRULRV \ GHVRUGHQDGRV FDGD XQR GH HOORV
FORQDGRSRUVHSDUDGRHQXQYHFWRUDGHFXDGR
SOiVPLGR FyVPLGR FURPRVRPDV DUWLÀFLDOHV GH
OHYDGXUD <HDVW $UWLÀFLDO &KURPRVRPHV <$&V
FURPRVRPDV DUWLÀFLDOHV GH EDFWHULD %DFWHULDO
$UWLÀFLDO&KURPRVRPHV%$&VHWF/DHODERUDFLyQ
GHORVPDSDVItVLFRVHVHQFLHUWRPRGRVLPLODUD
OD GH HQVDPEODU XQ URPSHFDEH]DV FRQVLVWH HQ
RUGHQDUORVIUDJPHQWRVGHOJHQRPDPHGLDQWHOD
E~VTXHGDGHIUDJPHQWRVTXHWLHQHQDOJXQD]RQD
HQ FRP~Q HV GHFLU KDOODU FRQMXQWRV GH SDUHV
GH IUDJPHQWRV SDUFLDOPHQWH VXSHUSXHVWRV (OOR
FRQGXFHDOFRQFHSWRFRQWLJTXHHVXQFRQMXQWR
GHIUDJPHQWRVGHXQJHQRPDTXHVHKDQFORQDGR
SRUVHSDUDGRSHURTXHVRQFRQWLJXRV\TXHHVWiQ
SDUFLDOPHQWHVXSHUSXHVWRV/DFDUWRJUDItDGHORV
FRQWLJV VH SXHGH UHDOL]DU EXVFDQGR OD ´KXHOOD
JHQpWLFDµ FRP~Q D GLVWLQWRV FORQHV GH XQD
JHQRWHFDGH'1$KXPDQR'LFKDKXHOODSXHGH
$
%
FRQVLVWLUHQXQSDWUyQFRPSDUWLGRGHVHFXHQFLDV
GH HQ]LPDV GH UHVWULFFLyQ TXH VH SXHGHQ
LQGDJDUD\XGiQGRVHGHDOJRULWPRV\SURJUDPDV
GH FyPSXWR DGHFXDGRV /DV HVWUDWHJLDV PiV
UHFLHQWHVKDFHQXVRGH'1$KXPDQRHQIRUPDGH
XQRVIUDJPHQWRVLQGHSHQGLHQWHVFORQDGRV
HQ ORV %$&V \ EXVFDQGR OD ´KXHOOD JHQpWLFD
FRP~Qµ HQWUH FORQHV FRQ EDVH HQ OD GHWHFFLyQ
GHGHWHUPLQDGDVVHFXHQFLDVUHSHWLWLYDV(O~OWLPR
JUDQ KLWR HQ FXDQWR D HODERUDFLyQ GH PDSDV
ItVLFRVKDVLGRHOGHVDUUROORGH´PDUFDGRUHVItVLFRV
XQLYHUVDOHVµIiFLOPHQWHJHQHUDEOHVTXHSHUPLWHQ
TXH ORV GDWRV REWHQLGRV HQ XQ ODERUDWRULR VHDQ
UiSLGDPHQWH FRPSDUWLGRV \ DVXPLGRV SRU WRGD
OD FRPXQLGDG LQYHVWLJDGRUD )LJXUD 6H WUDWD
GH ORV OODPDGRV ´OXJDUHV HWLTXHWDGRV SRU VX
VHFXHQFLDµ6HTXHQFH7DJJHG6LWHV676/RV676
FRQVLVWHQHQIUDJPHQWRVFRUWRVGH'1$GHHQWUH
\SEFX\DVHFXHQFLDH[DFWDVHFRQRFH
\VHVDEHTXHHV~QLFDHQWRGRHOJHQRPD/RV
676 GHÀQHQ SXQWRV FRQFUHWRV ~QLFRV GHO PDSD
'1$*HQyPLFR
/LEUHUtD%$&
&RQWLJVRUJDQL]DGRV
&
%$&DVHUVHFXHQFLDGR
'
(
(QVDPEODGR\VHFXHQFLDFLyQ
GHOIUDJPHQWR
)LJXUD(VWUDWHJLDSDUDODVHFXHQFLDFLyQGHJHQRPDVHPSOHDQGRFORQHV%$&RUJDQL]DGRVHQFRQWLJV$(O'1$EODQFRDVHU
VHFXHQFLDGRHVIUDJPHQWDGR\FORQDGR%/RVIUDJPHQWRVFORQDGRVUHVXOWDQHQXQDOLEUHUtDGHYHFWRUHVGHFORQDFLyQGHIUDJPHQWRV
JUDQGHV%$&&/RVIUDJPHQWRVGH'1$JHQyPLFRVRQRUJDQL]DGRVHQPDSDVItVLFRV'/RVFORQHV%$&VRQVHOHFFLRQDGRV\
VHFXHQFLDGRVSRUODHVWUDWHJLDGHHVFRSHWD(/DVVHFXHQFLDVVRQHQVDPEODGDVSDUDUHFRQVWUXLUODVHFXHQFLDGHOJHQRPD
ItVLFR \ FRQVWLWX\HQ PDJQtÀFRV ´PDUFDGRUHVµ
IiFLOPHQWH GHWHFWDEOHV (O HPSOHR GH ORV 676
D\XGD D HODERUDU PDSDV GH FRQWLJV VHJ~Q HO
FRQWHQLGR GHO 676 GH ORV FORQHV VXSHUSXHVWRV
(VWRV PDSDV GH 676 SHUPLWHQ OD LQWHJUDFLyQ GH
ORVPDSDVJHQpWLFRV\ItVLFRVKDFHQDFFHVLEOHOD
IDVHGHVHFXHQFLDFLyQ\IDFLOLWDQODFORQDFLyQGH
JHQHVLPSOLFDGRVHQHQIHUPHGDGHVPHGLDQWHOD
OODPDGD HVWUDWHJLD GHO FDQGLGDWR SRVLFLRQDO (OHTXLSRGHODFRPSDxtD&HOHUD*HQRPLFVTXH
LQFOX\HDXQRVLQYHVWLJDGRUHVGHLQVWLWXFLRQHV
GH (8$ $XVWUDOLD \ (VSDxD HQ UHSUHVHQWDFLyQ
GH RUJDQL]DFLRQHV DFDGpPLFDV VLQ ÀQHV GH
OXFUR\FRPHUFLDOHVREWXYRPXHVWUDVGH'1$GH
FLQFRSHUVRQDVWUHVPXMHUHV\GRVKRPEUHV(VWH
JUXSR LQFOX\y XQ DIURDPHULFDQR XQ FKLQR XQ
KLVSDQR \ GRV EODQFRV /XHJR GH VHOHFFLRQDUORV
SDUDOLEUDUORVGHFRQWDPLQDQWHV\FRQMXQWDUORVHQ
ELEOLRWHFDV GH '1$ VH DQDOL]DURQ ORV WUR]RV GHO
FyGLJRJHQpWLFRGHHVWRVGRQDQWHV
8Q HOHPHQWR FHQWUDO GH HVWH DQiOLVLV IXH
OD HVWUDWHJLD GH ´VKRWJXQµ R HVFRSHWD (VWH
VLVWHPD FRPSXWDUL]DGR HPSLH]D IUDJPHQWDQGR
HOJHQRPDHQXQFRQMXQWRDOD]DUGHSLH]DVGH
XQDORQJLWXGFRQRFLGDGHSESE\
SE /XHJR GH VX VHFXHQFLDFLyQ VH XVDQ
RSHUDFLRQHV PDWHPiWLFDV SDUD HQVDPEODU ORV
IUDJPHQWRV HQ EORTXHV FRQWLQXRV \ DVLJQDUORV
DO OXJDU FRUUHFWR TXH RFXSDQ HQ HO JHQRPD
(Q FRPSDUDFLyQ HO PpWRGR GH 6DQJHU GXSOLFD
JUDQGHVWUR]RVGHOFyGLJRKXPDQRHQIRUPDGH
FORQHV%$&VORVFXDOHVSXHGHQVHUFRORFDGRVHQ
HOPDSDGHOJHQRPDHQODUHJLyQDSURSLDGD(VWD
HVWUDWHJLDXVDGDSRUORVLQYHVWLJDGRUHVGHO3*+
\ ÀQDQFLDGR FRQ IRQGRV S~EOLFRV FRQFHQWUD DO
FRPLHQ]RPiVWLHPSR\HVIXHU]RHQODJHQHUDFLyQ
GHFORQHV\PDSDVPLHQWUDVTXHODHVWUDWHJLDGH
&HOHUD*HQRPLFVXVDDOÀQDOFRQPiVLQWHQVLGDG
ODVFRPSXWDGRUDV
&HOHUD *HQRPLFV HPSOHy HO PpWRGR GH
HVFRSHWDSDUDHVWDEOHFHUODVHFXHQFLDGHO'1$
FXEULHQGR SRU OR WDQWR WRGR HO JHQRPD FLQFR
YHFHV$FRQWLQXDFLyQODLQIRUPDFLyQGHO
JHQRPD GH ORV %$&V GHSRVLWDGD HQ HO EDQFR
GH GDWRV S~EOLFR IXH GLYLGLGD HQ VHJPHQWRV
FRUWRVGHEDVHV\FDUJDGDHQODIyUPXODGH
HVFRSHWDSDUDFXEULUHOJHQRPDRWUDVYHFHV
(OJUXSRGHLQYHVWLJDFLyQHQVDPEOyOXHJRYDULDV
YHFHVODVHFXHQFLDGHOJHQRPDKXPDQRXVDQGR
GRV IyUPXODV X RSHUDFLRQHV PDWHPiWLFDV XQ
HQIRTXH GH (QVDPEODGR GHO *HQRPD ÌQWHJUR
(*, TXH SHUPLWLy WUDEDMDU GH LQPHGLDWR FRQ
WRGDODVHFXHQFLD\XQHQIRTXHGH(QVDPEODGR
GH(VFRSHWD'LYLGLGRHQ&RPSDUWLPLHQWRV((&
GLVHxDGR SDUD DFODUDU VHJPHQWRV HVSHFtÀFRV
/D VHFXHQFLD SURGXFLGD SRU &HOHUD
FXEUHPiVGHOGHOJHQRPD6HJ~Q&HOHUD
DOUHGHGRUGHOGHOJHQRPDHVWiHQVHJPHQWRV
FRUUHFWDPHQWH RUGHQDGRV GH SRU OR PHQRV
SE /D VHFXHQFLD LQGLFD OD H[LVWHQFLD
GH JHQHV FRGLÀFDQWHV GH SURWHtQDV \
GpELOPHQWH LQGLFD OD H[LVWHQFLD GH RWURV JHQHVKXPDQRVKLSRWpWLFRV3RUORWDQWRHOWRWDO
GH JHQHV YDUtD GH D 3DUD KDFHU
XQD GREOH FRPSUREDFLyQ GH OD SUHFLVLyQ GH VX
VHFXHQFLD VH FRPSDUy HO WUDEDMR GHVFULWR FRQ
VHFXHQFLDVFRPSOHWDGDVGHORVFURPRVRPDV\
\VHHQFRQWUyXQD´H[FHOHQWHFRQFRUGDQFLDµ
&XDQGR VH FRPSDUy FRQ OD VHFXHQFLD GHO
UHVWR GH ORV FURPRVRPDV HO DQiOLVLV LQVLQXy TXH
KD\ PXFKRV PiV SXQWRV GH UXSWXUD HUURUHV GH
HQVDPEODGR R YDULDFLRQHV JHQpWLFDV HQ HO
SUR\HFWRGHHQVDPEODGRÀQDQFLDGRFRQIRQGRV
S~EOLFRVTXHHQHOHQVDPEODGRGH&HOHUD
(Q ~OWLPDV IHFKDV VH FUHDURQ ORV FKLSV GH
KLEULGDFLyQ TXH VLUYHQ FRPR XQ PpWRGR GH
VHFXHQFLDFLyQ SRU KLEULGDFLyQ HQ FKLSV FRQ
ROLJRQXFOHyWLGRV 6H EDVD HOOR HQ VLQWHWL]DU
GLVWLQWDV VRQGDV GH ROLJRQXFOHyWLGRV \ XQLUODV HQ
GLVSRVLFLRQHV RUGHQDGDV DUUHJORV D XQD ÀQD
SODFDGHQ\ORQRYLGULR(OFKLSVHSUXHEDIUHQWH
D XQ '1$ PDUFDGR ÁXRUHVFHQWHPHQWH GH
PRGRTXHHOSDWUyQ\FDQWLGDGGHÁXRUHVFHQFLD
VXPLQLVWUD LQIRUPDFLyQ VREUH OD VHFXHQFLD GHO
'1$HQFXHVWLyQ$PRGRGHHVWXGLRSLORWRVREUH
VXVSRVLELOLGDGHVODHPSUHVD$IÀPHWUL[KDORJUDGR
UHVHFXHQFLDUSRUHVWHPpWRGRORVNEGH'1$
PLWRFRQGULDOKXPDQRFRQXQGLVSRVLWLYRIRUPDGR
SRUROLJRQXFOHyWLGRV
5(68/7$'262%7(1,'26325
(/352<(&72*(120$+80$12
$O PRPHQWR HO 3*+ KD DUURMDGR DOJXQDV
FLIUDV
(O JHQRPD KXPDQR FRQWLHQH ê NEGHQXFOHyWLGRV
(O WDPDxR GHO JHQ SURPHGLR FRQVLVWH
HQ EDVHV SHUR ORV WDPDxRV YDUtDQ
HQRUPHPHQWH(OJHQKXPDQRPiVJUDQGH
FRQRFLGRHVTXHFRGLÀFDSDUDODGLVWURÀQD
FRQPLOORQHVGHEDVHV
(O Q~PHUR WRWDO GH JHQHV HVWLPDGR HV GH
D PXFKR PHQRU TXH ODV
HVWLPDFLRQHV KHFKDV DQWHULRUPHQWH TXH
LEDQGHD
&DVLWRGDVODVEDVHVGHQXFOHyWLGRV
VRQ H[DFWDPHQWH ODV PLVPDV HQ WRGD OD
SREODFLyQ
/DV IXQFLRQHV VRQ GHVFRQRFLGDV SDUD PiV
GHOGHORVJHQHVGHVFXELHUWRV
0HQRV GHO GHO JHQRPD FRGLÀFD SDUD
SURWHtQDV
/DVVHFXHQFLDVUHSHWLGDVTXHQRFRGLÀFDQ
SDUD SURWHtQDV FRPSRQH DO PHQRV HO GHJHQRPDKXPDQR
/DV VHFXHQFLDV UHSHWLWLYDV FRPR VH
SHQVDED QR WLHQHQ IXQFLRQHV GLUHFWDV
SHUR DSR\DQ OD HVWUXFWXUD \ OD GLQiPLFD
GHO FURPRVRPD &RQ HO WLHPSR HVWDV
UHSHWLFLRQHV UHDFRPRGDQ DO JHQRPD
FUHDQGR QXHYRV JHQHV \ PRGLÀFDQGR \
UHRUJDQL]DQGRORVJHQHVH[LVWHQWHV
'XUDQWH ORV SDVDGRV PLOORQHV GH DxRV
SDUHFH KDEHU RFXUULGR XQD GLVPLQXFLyQ
GUDPiWLFD HQ OD WDVD GH DFXPXODFLyQ GH
UHSHWLFLRQHVHQHOJHQRPDKXPDQR
/DSRUFLyQGHKHWHURFURPDWLQDVHFXHQFLDGD
GHO JHQRPD FRPSUHQGH DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH êNEGH'1$(OWDPDxRWRWDOGHOJHQRPDHV
DSUR[LPDGDPHQWHêNESRUORTXHHOUHVWDQWH
ê NE FRUUHVSRQGH D VHFXHQFLDV
DOWDPHQWH UHSHWLWLYDV HQ OD KHWHURFURPDWLQD /D
PD\RUtDGHODVVHFXHQFLDVDOWDPHQWHUHSHWLWLYDV
VRQ HOHPHQWRV WUDQVSRQLEOHV HV GHFLU TXH
SXHGHQFDPELDUGHOXJDUTXHVHPXHYHQDOR
ODUJRGHWRGRHOJHQRPDFRPRLQWHUPHGLDULRVGH
51$HVWRVUHSUHVHQWDQHOGHODVHFXHQFLDGH
HXFURPDWLQD 2WUR GHO JHQRPD FRQVLVWH GH
VHJPHQWRV GH '1$ GXSOLFDGR GH WDO PDQHUD
TXHFHUFDGHOGHOJHQRPDKXPDQRFRQVLVWH
GHVHFXHQFLDVGH'1$UHSHWLWLYDV
3(563(&7,9$6'(/352<(&72
*(120$+80$12
(O3*+LQÁXLUiHQODELRPHGLFLQDSXHVSHUPLWLUi
DYDQ]DUHQHOFRQRFLPLHQWRGHODEDVHJHQpWLFD
GHHQIHUPHGDGHV0HGLFLQD*HQyPLFD\DEULUi
SHUVSHFWLYDVQXHYDVHQHOGLDJQyVWLFRSURQyVWLFR
\ WUDWDPLHQWR GH HQIHUPHGDGHV DXQTXH HVWR
~OWLPRUHTXHULUiGHLQYHVWLJDFLyQSRVWJHQyPLFD
'LDJQyVWLFR PROHFXODU 'HWHFFLyQ GH
PXWDFLRQHV (O DYDQFH HQ HO 3*+ \ HQ ORV
PDSDV \ VHFXHQFLDV \D GLVSRQLEOHV LPSXOVDQ
OD QHFHVLGDG GH GLVSRQHU GH WpFQLFDV
FDSDFHVGHUDVWUHDU'1$HQODE~VTXHGDGH
PXWDFLRQHV DVRFLDGDV FRQ HQIHUPHGDGHV
KXPDQDV (Q ORV SUy[LPRV DxRV VH KDEUiQ
LGHQWLÀFDGR OD PD\RU SDUWH GH ORV JHQHV
LPSOLFDGRV HQ HQIHUPHGDGHV KXPDQDV
LPSRUWDQWHV \ HQ ODV EDVHV GH GDWRV VH HVWi
LQWURGXFLHQGRLQIRUPDFLyQVREUHPXWDFLRQHV\
VXVLPSOLFDFLRQHVFOtQLFDV8QRGHORVUHWRVGHOD
PHGLFLQDVHUiKDFHUXVRGHGLFKDLQIRUPDFLyQ
SDUD PHMRUDU HO GLDJQyVWLFR \ SURQyVWLFR GH
ODV HQIHUPHGDGHV GHQWUR GH VHJPHQWRV GH
'1$FRQVHFXHQFLDFRQRFLGD
1XHYRV \ PHMRUHV PDUFDGRUHV SROLPyUÀFRV
/RV 613V VH HQFXHQWUDQ IUHFXHQWHPHQWH HQ
HO JHQRPD \ H[LVWH XQ 613 FDGD SE
DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH 6L ELHQ OD PD\RUtD GH
ORV 613V VH HQFXHQWUDQ IXHUD GH OD UHJLyQ
FRGLÀFDQWHGHORVJHQHVDOJXQRVFRQWULEX\HQ
GLUHFWDPHQWHDODSDWRORJtDSRUDOWHUDFLyQGH
XQJHQ\FRPRFRQVHFXHQFLDGHODSURWHtQD
FRUUHVSRQGLHQWH /RV 613V VRQ OD EDVH GH XQ
IXHUWHGHVDUUROORHQHOWHUUHQRGHODGLVFLSOLQD
IDUPDFRJHQyPLFD \ SDUD HO GHVFXEULPLHQWR
GH QXHYRV FDUDFWHUHV DVRFLDGRV FRQ
HQIHUPHGDGHV
/RV´FKLSVµJHQpWLFRV/RV613VSURSRUFLRQDQ
ODEDVHSDUDFRQIHFFLRQDUXQPDSDJHQpWLFR
GHWDOODGR GH FDGD LQGLYLGXR /D SRVLELOLGDG
GH HYDOXDU OD YDULDFLyQ LQGLYLGXDO HQ XQ
VROR HQVD\R JHQpWLFR HV IDFWLEOH JUDFLDV DO
GHVDUUROOR GH OD PLFURHOHFWUyQLFD DSOLFDGD
D OD JHQpWLFD PROHFXODU 8Q FRQMXQWR GH
VRQGDVGHULYDGDVGH613VTXHUHSUHVHQWDQOD
YDULDFLyQJHQyPLFDGHXQLQGLYLGXRVHKDFH
UHDFFLRQDU FRQ HO FKLS \ SHUPLWH REWHQHU
XQ SDWUyQ GH KLEULGDFLyQ FDUDFWHUtVWLFR
GHO JHQRPD GHO LQGLYLGXR HVWXGLDGR (O
SHUÀO JHQpWLFR VH LQWHUSUHWD HQ XQ OHFWRU
GH ÁXRUHVFHQFLD FRQIRFDO \ HQ VX DQiOLVLV
LQWHUYLHQH XQ SURFHVDGRU HOHFWUyQLFR (VWH
WLSR GH DQiOLVLV SHUPLWLUi QR VyOR FRQWLQXDU
HO DQiOLVLV GH HQIHUPHGDGHV JHQpWLFDV
PRQRIDFWRULDOHV VLQR WDPELpQ FRPHQ]DU
FRQ PHMRUHV SRVLELOLGDGHV GH p[LWR FRQ HO
DQiOLVLV GH HQIHUPHGDGHV PXOWLIDFWRULDOHV
WDOHV FRPR OD KLSHUWHQVLyQ OD HVTXL]RIUHQLD
ODV
HQIHUPHGDGHV
PDQLDFRGHSUHVLYDV
R OD GLDEHWHV WLSR ,, 2WUD FRQVHFXHQFLD
GH HVWD WHFQRORJtD HV OD E~VTXHGD GH XQ
PHGLFDPHQWR DGDSWDGR DO SHUÀO JHQpWLFR
GH FDGD SDFLHQWH EDVH GH ORV GHVDUUROORV
IDUPDFRJHQyPLFRV
&216,'(5$&,21(6e7,&$6
(O GHVDUUROOR FLHQWtÀFR HQ OR TXH UHVSHFWD DO
3*+ DEUH ODV SXHUWDV D GLIHUHQWHV WUDWDPLHQWRV
TXH SRGUtDQ VHU EHQpÀFRV SDUD HO KRPEUH VLQ
HPEDUJR QR VH GHEH ROYLGDU TXH HVWR LPSOLFD
PDQLSXODU GLUHFWDPHQWH ORV PHFDQLVPRV TXH
WUDQVPLWHQ OD YLGD \ GLULJHQ OD HYROXFLyQ GH ODV
HVSHFLHV LQFOX\HQGR OD KXPDQD (VWRV KHFKRV
H[FHGHQ ORV FRQFHSWRV GH pWLFD \ KXPDQLGDG
\DTXHQXQFDVHKDEtDSHQVDGRHQODSRVLELOLGDG
GHTXHODYLGDIXHUDPDQLSXODGDGHHVWHPRGR
$Vt VXUJHQ SUHJXQWDV FRPR ¢VH GHEH SURKLELU
R GHVDFRQVHMDU DOJ~Q WLSR GH PDQLSXODFLyQ
JHQpWLFD" ¢D TXLpQ OH FRUUHVSRQGH OD
UHVSRQVDELOLGDGGHGLVFULPLQDUHQWUHORSHUPLWLGR
RQR"$VtOD81(6&2VHFRPSURPHWHDSURPRYHU
\ GHVDUUROODU OD UHÁH[LyQ pWLFD HQ ORV DYDQFHV
FLHQWtÀFRVGHQWURGHODViUHDVGHODELRORJtD\OD
JHQpWLFD
&21&/86,21(6
(Q HVWH WUDEDMR VH SUHVHQWD XQ DQiOLVLV
FXDOLWDWLYR \ FXDQWLWDWLYR GHO 3UR\HFWR *HQRPD
+XPDQR FRQ EDVH HQ OD LQIRUPDFLyQ REWHQLGD
GHGLIHUHQWHVPHGLRVELEOLRJUiÀFRV(O3*+HVXQ
HVIXHU]R FLHQWtÀFR LQWHUQDFLRQDO TXH SUHWHQGH
ORFDOL]DU \ VHFXHQFLDU WRGRV ORV JHQHV TXH
FRQVWLWX\HQHOJHQRPDKXPDQR\GHDOJXQRVRWURV
RUJDQLVPRVFRQHOÀQGHDGTXLULUHOFRQRFLPLHQWR
GH OD RUJDQL]DFLyQ HVWUXFWXUD \ IXQFLyQ GH ORV
JHQHV HQ ORV FURPRVRPDV (O 3*+ KDFH XVR GH
OD FDUWRJUDItD JHQpWLFD \ OD FDUWRJUDItD ItVLFD
SDUD FDUDFWHUL]DU HO JHQRPD (O FRQRFLPLHQWR
LQWHJUDOGHOJHQRPDKXPDQRWLHQHDSOLFDFLRQHV
SRWHQFLDOHV TXH YDQ PiV DOOi GH OD JHQpWLFD
SURSLDPHQWH GLFKD SXHV VH SRGUi YDORUDU OD
VXVFHSWLELOLGDG\ODUHVLVWHQFLDDHQIHUPHGDGHV\
GLVHxDU HVWUDWHJLDV PiV SRGHURVDV \ HVSHFtÀFDV
SDUD VX FRQWURO DVt FRPR SURIXQGL]DU HQ
LPSRUWDQWHV DVSHFWRV GHO RUGHQ ELROyJLFR \ GH
LQWHUpV HFRQyPLFR \ VRFLDO (O FRQRFLPLHQWR GHO
JHQRPD KXPDQR RIUHFHUi QXHYDV IRUPDV GH
SUHYHQFLyQ GLDJQyVWLFR \ WUDWDPLHQWR GH ODV
HQIHUPHGDGHV
/,7(5$785$&,7$'$
$QyQLPR*HQRPLFVDQG,WV,PSDFWRQ6FLHQFH
DQG6RFLHW\7KH+XPDQ*HQRPH3URMHFWDQG%H\RQG
KWWSZZZRUQOJRYVFLWHFKUHVRXUFHV+XPDQB
*HQRPHSXEOLFDWSULPHUSULPHUSGI
%XWWH $ ´7KH 8VH $QG $QDO\VLV 2I 0LFURDUUD\
'DWDµ1DWXUH'UXJ'LVF
&RRSHU *0 DQG +DXVPDQ 5( 7KH &HOO
$603UHVV:DVKLQJWRQ'&S
*ROGVWHLQ'-/DHUDSRVWJHQyPLFD0HGLFLQD
\ELRORJtDPRGHUQDV(QFUXFLMDGDV8%$%XHQRV$LUHV
3DQGXUR $ %LRORJtD 0ROHFXODU HQ OD &OtQLFD
0F*UDZ+LOO0p[LFRSS
5XGGOH)´+XQGUHG<HDU6HDUFK)RU7KH+XPDQ
*HQRPHµ$QQX5HY*HQRPLFV+XP*HQHW
7KH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO +XPDQ *HQRPH 0DSSLQJ
&RQVRUWLXP ´$ SK\VLFDO PDS RI WKH KXPDQ
JHQRPHµ1DWXUH
9HQWHU&-HWDO´7KH6HTXHQFHRIWKH+XPDQ
*HQRPHµ6FLHQFH
,ixH]3DUHMD(
KWWSZZZXJUHVaHLDQH]%LRWHFQRORJLDHWLFDKWPO
9HQWHU &- $GDPV '0 *UDQJHU 6* .HUODYDJH
5$ 6PLWK +2 DQG +XQNDSLOOHU 0 ´6KRWJXQ
6HTXHQFLQJ RI WKH +XPDQ *HQRPHµ 6FLHQFH
,ixH]3DUHMD ( KWWSZZZXJUHVaHLDQH]
%LRWHFQRORJLDJHQRPDKWPO
:HDYHU5)0ROHFXODU%LRORJ\6HFRQGHGLWLRQ
0F*UDZ+LOO(8$SS
.DUS*%LRORJtD&HOXODU\0ROHFXODU0F*UDZ
+LOO,QWHUDPHULFDQD0p[LFRS