TECHNICAL REPORT (BOS & LCOE CALCULATION) BOS & LCOE Calculation of a Fixed Tilt Ground-mount Installation – Japan Trina Solar Co., Ltd. Report No.: 10265641, Rev. D Document No.: 10265641-JPYO-R-01-D Date: 2021-02-03 IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER 1. This document is intended for the sole use of the Customer as detailed on the front page of this document to whom the document is addressed and who has entered into a written agreement with the DNV GL entity issuing this document (“DNV GL”). 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Commercial in Confidence : Not to be disclosed outside the Customer’s organisation. DNV GL only : Not to be disclosed to non-DNV GL staff Customer’s Discretion : Distribution for information only at the discretion of the Customer (subject to the above Important Notice and Disclaimer and the terms of DNV GL’s written agreement with the Customer). Published : Available for information only to the general public (subject to the above Important Notice and Disclaimer). DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Project name: Technical Report (BOS & LCOE Calculation) DNV GL AS, Japan Branch Report title: BOS & LCOE Calculation of a Fixed Tilt Ground-mount Installation – Japan Customer: Trina Solar Co., Ltd. Nisseki Yokohama Bldg., 14F, 1-1-8 Sakuragi-cho, Naka-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 231-0062, Japan Contact person: Mr. Xing Gao / Mr. Kuniyasu Ito Date of issue: 2021-02-03 Project No.: 10265641 Report No.: 10265641, Rev. D Document No.: 10265641-JPYO-R-01-D Tel: +81 45 305 6560 Task and objective: BOS and LCOE calculation of a fixed tilt ground-mount installation of solar PV system – Aomori, Japan Prepared by: Verified by: Approved by: Peerawan Tadpikultong Yoshihisa Wakamatsu Yukinobu Uchida Consultant, Renewables Advisory Singapore Principal Consultant, Renewables Advisory - Japan Country Manager, Renewables Advisory - Japan Sajni Chatly Christopher Smith Consultant, Renewables Advisory Singapore Senior Consultant, Renewables Advisory - Australia ☐ Strictly Confidential Keywords: ☐ Private and Confidential LCOE, Fixed tilt ground-mount installation; Solar PV; Aomori; Japan ☐ Commercial in Confidence ☐ DNV GL only ☒ Customer’s Discretion ☐ Published © 2021 DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com. All rights reserved. Reference to part of this report which may lead to misinterpretation is not permissible. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Rev. No. Date Reason for Issue Prepared by Verified by Approved by A 2020-12-11 First issue Peerawan T. Yoshihisa W. Yukinobu Uchida B 2020-12-24 Second issue Peerawan T. Yoshihisa W. Yukinobu Uchida C 2021-01-13 Third issue Peerawan T. Yoshihisa W. Yukinobu Uchida D 2021-02-03 Final issue Peerawan T. Yoshihisa W. Yukinobu Uchida DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Table of contents 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 1 2 PROPOSED LAYOUT ................................................................................................................... 2 3 ENERGY ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................................... 4 3.1 Project Description 4 3.2 Solar Resource Assessment 5 3.3 Loss factors and energy production 6 3.4 Uncertainty analysis 9 4 COST ESTIMATION .................................................................................................................. 15 4.1 Model Assumption 15 4.2 CAPEX Analysis 16 4.3 OPEX Analysis 20 4.4 LCOE Analysis 20 5 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 22 6 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 23 Appendices COST-EFFECTIVENESS COMPARISON BETWEEN MODULE TYPES .............................. A-1 .................................................................................... B-1 INVERTER DATASHEET ....................................................................................... C-1 RACKING SYSTEM (PROPOSED RACKING DESIGN).................................................D-1 DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 1 INTRODUCTION At the request of Trina Solar Co., Ltd. (the “Customers”), DNV GL has conducted an analysis of Levelized Cost of Electricity (“LCOE”) for 5 different types of PV modules installed in a PV plant located in Aomori, Japan (“the Project”). The purpose of this analysis is to compare the energy generation, the capital expenditure (CAPEX), the operating expenditure (OPEX), and the derived LCOE cost for 5 different PV modules proposed by the Customer; 450Wp, 535Wp, 545Wp, 585Wp and 600Wp. A total of five (5) energy production assessments have been performed to support the yield inputs to the financial model. The location of the Project used in the analysis has been proposed by the Customer. The Project is located in Kamikita district, Aomori prefecture at GPS coordinate of 40.815450°, 141.084902°. The terrain elevation of the Project varies from 90m to 160m. However, in this analysis, the terrain is assumed to be flat with an elevation of 100m as proposed by the Customer. Figure 1-1: Map of Project location DNV GL notes that based on the Customer’s clarification, three (3) of the PV modules assessed in this report (450Wp, 545Wp and 600Wp) belong to Trina Solar and the remaining two (2) PV modules (535Wp and 585Wp) are the generic modules from other manufacturers which have been used for comparative purpose only. The Customer has provided the technical datasheet for PV modules used in the analysis. The datasheets for Trina solar modules are presented in Appendix A of this report. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 1 2 PROPOSED LAYOUT This section focuses on the preparation of the PV layout created for each type of module installed in the proposed project location. The quantities of PV modules, inverter and mounting structures estimated in these layouts are used as inputs to the energy assessment and LCOE cost estimation. DNV GL has defined the layout giving the priority to the AC capacity fixed at 10MWac and adjusting the DC capacity to be at approximately 1.50 DC/AC ratio (i.e. 15MWdc). The PV array tilt has been optimised for optimal gain of the solar irradiation. The pitch distance between structures has been pragmatically set up in order to maintain the targeted DC capacity of 15MWdc. The proposed layout for Aomori Project is shown in Figure 2-1 below. Figure 2-1: Proposed layout for Aomori Project DNV GL highlights that the simulated layouts are indicative and not for construction purposes. A detailed study on topography and area restrictions shall be performed for the development of the Project. DNV GL has made some assumptions regarding the characterization of the plant in order to simplify the analysis. The assumptions are made based on DNV GL’s experience in similar projects in Japan. For simplicity, DNV GL has assumed an average cable thickness for each cabling type (DC, AC LV and AC MV) and assumed the drainage system and internal road to be constructed along the Project perimeter and across the plant as shown in the layout. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 2 Based on the preliminary layout designed for each PV module type, the estimated quantities of Balance of System (BoS) components are summarized in Table 2-1 below. Table 2-1 Summary of BoS components BOS Components 450Wp 535Wp 545Wp 585Wp 600Wp Trina solar Generic module Trina solar Generic module Trina solar 33,372 mod 28,080 mod 27,576 mod 25,680 mod 25,024 mod DC combiner box type 18-in-1 16-in-1 12-in-1 16-in-1 12-in-1 DC Combiner box 70 units 70 units 70 units 70 units 70 units Inverter SMA SHP-143-JP-20, 143kW 70 units 70 units 70 units 70 units 70 units MV station (ACCB, MV Transformer & switchgear) 2MVA, 6.6/0.55kV 5 sets 5 sets 5 sets 5 sets 5 sets HV Transformer 10MVA, 66/6.6kV 1 set 1 set 1 set 1 set 1 set (4x6) – 1,236 (4x6) – 1,040 (4x6) - 766 (4x3) – 309 (4x3) - 260 (4x3) - 766 DC conductor 1 (1500 V, 6mm & MC4 connectors) 49,440 m 41,600 m 30,640 m 42,800 m 31,280 m DC conductor 2 (1500 V, 38mm2) 28,000 m 28,000 m 28,000 m 28,000 m 28,000 m 700 m 700 m 700 m 700 m 700 m 50 m 50 m 50 m 50 m 50 m 500 m 500 m 500 m 500 m 500 m SCADA system 1 set 1 set 1 set 1 set 1 set CCTV 5 sets 5 sets 5 sets 5 sets 5 sets 2500 m 2500 m 2500 m 2500 m 2500 m PV Module Rack design and quantity (unit) 2 LV AC conductor 1 (Inverter station, 600 V, 60mm2) LV AC conductor 2 (AC combiner, 600 V, 100mm2) MV AC conductor 3 (MV transformer, 6.6 kV, 60 mm2) Internal road DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com (4x6) - 1070 (4x6) - 782 (4x4) - 391 3 3 ENERGY ASSESSMENT DNV GL has performed an energy yield assessment for each module type based on the preliminary design and optimised layout as discussed in Section 2. DNV GL highlights that the results of the simulation presented in this Section shall not be considered as final estimates of the expected PV plant energy production. When the final layout and PV module characteristics are defined, the energy assessment results shall be reviewed and updated accordingly. 3.1 Project Description The summary of the key design parameters for each module comparison is presented in Table 3-1 below. Table 3-1 Key design parameters BoS Components 450Wp 535Wp 545Wp 585Wp 600Wp Trina solar Generic module Trina solar Generic module Trina solar Structure type Fixed tilt, 4-rows in width, landscape orientation Axis tilt 32° Axis azimuth 0° (South) Structure height above ground 1.5m 1.6m Collector width 4.2m 4.5m 4.3m 4.5m 5.2m Pitch 5.1m 5.5m 5.3m 5.5m 6.4m Inverter type String inverter, SMA Sunny Highpower PEAK3 Inverter rated capacity and quantity 143 kWac, 70 units Total AC capacity PV module type 10.01 MWac Trina solar, monocrystalline, 144 cells Generic module, monocrystalline, 144 cells Trina solar, monocrystalline, 110 cells Generic module, monocrystalline, 156 cells Trina solar, monocrystalline, 120 cells Module rated capacity and quantity 450Wp 535Wp 545Wp 585Wp 600Wp Number of modules 33,372 28,080 27,576 25,680 25,024 15.02 MWp 15.02 MWp 15.03 MWp 15.02 MWp 15.01 MWp 27 27 36 24 32 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Total DC capacity Modules per string Ratio DC/AC MV/LV Transformer rating & quantity 2 MVA 6.6/0.55 kV, 5 units HV/MV Transformer rating & quantity 10 MVA 66/6.6 kV, 1 unit DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 4 3.2 Solar Resource Assessment A primary factor in determining the annual energy production for a solar PV project is selecting the solar irradiance data to use in the performance simulation. The best way to determine the solar resource at a site is by measuring different parameters of interest at the location of the site, using the appropriate instruments. For example, global horizontal irradiation (GHI) is measured using a horizontally mounted pyranometer calibrated under recognised standards. In the absence of on-site measurement, DNV GL has selected the solar irradiation data from Solargis [1], a well-known satellite data provider. The data obtained from Solargis consists of a historical 30-minute time series of Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation (DHI) for the period of 13 completed years from January 2007 to December 2019. The ambient temperature, the snowfall and precipitation data are selected from the nearest ground measurement station provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) [2]. Table 3-2 below shows the measurement description, resolution and period of meteorological data selected for the Project. Table 3-2 Selected MET data sources for GHI, DIF and temperature Reference dataset Solargis Location Project Site Description of measurements Satellite-derived data Period 2007-2019 Data type • Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) • Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) • Relative Humidity (%) JMA – Noheji station • Ground measurement station Ground-based measurement station, 10km from the Project 2007-2019 • Ambient Temperature • Snowfall • Precipitation Solargis Satellite-derived global horizontal irradiation Solargis provides satellite-derived monthly global horizontal irradiation (GHI), diffuse horizontal irradiation (DHI) and ambient temperature data (T) for the Project location, for the period from July 2006 to October 2020, calculated from Meteosat and GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite). The data coverage is over 99 % for Meteosat regions. Low data coverage has been identified in GOES for the eastern part of the South hemisphere. Data for low sun angles are derived by extrapolation of clear-sky index. • Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) provides meteorological data in monthly and hourly intervals for specific years. Solar irradiation data are measured from ground-based weather stations using First Class pyranometers (Eko Instruments MS-402F) at approximately 40 locations and Secondary Standard pyranometers at approximately 3 locations. The summary of long-term monthly average global horizontal irradiation (GHI), diffuse horizontal irradiation (DHI) data obtained from Solargis and ambient temperature data obtained from JMA is shown in Table 3-3. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 5 Table 3-3 Summary of long-term monthly average GHI, DHI and ambient temperature data Aomori Project Month GHI [kWh/m2/month] DHI [kWh/m2/month] Ambient Temperature [°C] Jan 48 32 -0.9 Feb 66 42 -0.6 Mar 105 63 2.4 Apr 141 71 7.2 May 157 78 12.4 Jun 145 79 16.0 Jul 127 79 20.2 Aug 125 70 22.0 Sep 110 55 19.1 Oct 89 45 13.2 Nov 55 32 7.1 Dec 40 27 1.6 Annual 1208 671 10.0 3.3 Loss factors and energy production DNV GL simulated the energy output of the solar PV projects using the PVsyst simulation tool, the most commonly used simulation tool in the industry. DNV GL currently uses version 6.86 and independently quality-checks new releases prior to adopting them. Given that the project is located in complex mountainous terrain, DNV GL expects that terrain surrounding the project will impact the project’s near shading profile and overall annual energy yield. As such DNV GL considers the inclusion of the surrounding complex terrain necessary in determining the near shading profile accurately. DNV GL has used its proprietary software, SolarFarmer 1.0 to generate a terrain model suitable for near shade simulation of the project. DNV GL sourced the digital elevation model (DEM) from the base map information database published by Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, where the complex terrain model used in simulation is displayed in Figure 3-1. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 6 Figure 3-1 Complex terrain model for the project generated in DNV GL’s proprietary SolarFarmer software and simulated in PVSyst DNV GL has calculated, estimated, or assumed losses for the energy simulations where the results are shown in below. Losses occurring after the inverter (i.e., AC ohmic, transformer, station loads, unavailability, and plant controller) are calculated in a post-processing tool. DNV GL notes the following with respect to the simulations: • For all projects, DNV GL has applied the IAM and Low irradiance loss profiles as provided by the Customer in the PAN files. No 3rd party test report is provided for review. • The AC and DC ohmic wiring losses have been pragmatically estimated using typical loss assumptions. • DNV GL has assumed no annual module washes in the soiling model. • As requested by the Customer on the soil/snow loss adjustment, DNV GL has assumed the height of PV mounting structure for 600Wp module to be at 1.6m above ground, while the height for other module racks (450Wp, 535Wp, 545Wp and 585Wp) are assumed at 1.5m above ground. • DNV GL has assumed the plant is unstaffed and all technologies are reliable and proven. • Curtailment, power factor and grid unavailability have not been considered. • DNV GL has assumed 1st level (LV/MV) and 2nd level (MV/HV) step up transformers. DNV GL has used standard assumptions on the transformer loss factors based on project experience. • DNV GL has applied 0% module quality factor (MQF) for all PV module types. • DNV GL has applied 2.5% light induced degradation loss for all PV module types. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 7 Table 3-4 Year-1 energy assessment summary (inputs, losses, and results) 450Wp 535Wp 545Wp 585Wp 600Wp Trina solar Generic Module Trina solar Generic Module Trina solar Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) [kWh/m2/year] 1,361 1,361 1,361 1,361 1,361 Global Irradiation on the Plane of Array [kWh/m2/year] 1,208 1,208 1,208 1,208 1,208 POA uplift gain 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% Basic inputs 450Wp 535Wp 545Wp 585Wp 600Wp Trina solar Generic Module Trina solar Generic Module Trina solar 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 14.4% 14.6% 14.6% 14.5% 14.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 13.1% 13.2% 13.1% 13.2% 13.2% Low-irradiance efficiency reduction 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% Temperature -0.6% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% Module Quality Factor 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Light Induced Degradation 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Mismatch 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% DC Ohmic 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Inverter losses 4.7% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% AC Ohmic 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% Transformer 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Auxiliary consumption 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Plant controller 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% System unavailability 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% PVsyst losses Far Shading/Horizon Near Shading Incidence angle (reflective) Soiling 450Wp 535Wp 545Wp 585Wp 600Wp Trina solar Generic Module Trina solar Generic Module Trina solar Year 1 – P50 Net Energy [MWh/year] 13,286 13,165 13,339 13,244 13,334 Year 1 – P50 Yield Ratio [kWh/kWp] 885 881 888 882 888 65.0% 64.7% 65.2% 64.8% 65.3% Results Year 1 - Performance Ratio DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 8 3.4 Uncertainty analysis The uncertainty of the result is a consequence of the uncertainty of solar radiation, the inaccuracies of the simulation procedure itself (e.g., choice of models), and uncertainties associated with “external” influences (e.g., shading, soiling, deviation of components from specification, inverter losses, cabling losses, etc.). In addition, the year-to-year variability of the solar resource and precipitation results in year-to-year variability in energy production for the Project contributes to uncertainty. Inputs into the downside risk estimate include solar resource variability and solar resource, modelling and degradation uncertainties. DNV GL recommends a 0.64% annual P50 system degradation rate [3]. Exponential models and accelerating degradation rates are often used to model degradation and this behaviour has been observed in PV systems. DNV GL uses a linear degradation model to account for both behaviours. Table 3-5 to Table 3-9 present the annual expected production for the systems at various probabilities of exceedance. Note that the values in this table present the downside risk for each year independently of the other years. P99 production would not be expected to occur in every year of the Project’s life, as presented in this table. Rather, this table functions as a minimum expected production for each year of the system’s life. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 9 Table 3-5 Projected net energy output for 450Wp Trina solar module [MWh/year] Year P50 P75 P90 P95 P99 1 13,286 12,306 11,473 11,023 10,292 2 13,218 12,234 11,398 10,941 10,200 3 13,149 12,157 11,309 10,835 10,062 4 13,079 12,073 11,205 10,705 9,879 5 13,010 11,983 11,089 10,553 9,658 6 12,939 11,887 10,960 10,406 9,502 7 12,869 11,786 10,821 10,248 9,338 8 12,797 11,680 10,671 10,081 9,167 9 12,725 11,569 10,512 9,904 8,990 10 12,653 11,455 10,345 9,719 8,806 11 12,580 11,337 10,171 9,528 8,617 12 12,507 11,215 9,991 9,329 8,422 13 12,433 11,090 9,805 9,126 8,223 14 12,359 10,963 9,614 8,917 8,019 15 12,284 10,833 9,419 8,703 7,812 16 12,209 10,701 9,219 8,485 7,600 17 12,134 10,567 9,017 8,264 7,385 18 12,057 10,432 8,811 8,039 7,167 19 11,981 10,294 8,603 7,812 6,946 20 11,904 10,155 8,391 7,581 6,722 DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 10 Table 3-6 Projected net energy output for 535Wp Generic module [MWh/year] Year P50 P75 P90 P95 P99 1 13,165 12,188 11,359 10,910 10,183 2 13,097 12,117 11,285 10,830 10,092 3 13,028 12,040 11,196 10,725 9,955 4 12,960 11,957 11,094 10,597 9,774 5 12,891 11,868 10,979 10,446 9,556 6 12,821 11,773 10,852 10,301 9,401 7 12,751 11,673 10,714 10,145 9,240 8 12,680 11,569 10,565 9,979 9,071 9 12,609 11,459 10,408 9,804 8,895 10 12,537 11,346 10,243 9,622 8,714 11 12,465 11,229 10,071 9,432 8,527 12 12,393 11,109 9,893 9,236 8,334 13 12,320 10,986 9,709 9,035 8,137 14 12,247 10,860 9,520 8,828 7,936 15 12,173 10,732 9,327 8,617 7,730 16 12,098 10,601 9,130 8,402 7,521 17 12,023 10,469 8,930 8,183 7,309 18 11,948 10,334 8,727 7,961 7,093 19 11,872 10,198 8,520 7,736 6,874 20 11,796 10,061 8,312 7,508 6,653 DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 11 Table 3-7 Projected net energy output for 545Wp Trina solar module [MWh/year] Year P50 P75 P90 P95 P99 1 13,339 12,350 11,512 11,057 10,321 2 13,272 12,280 11,438 10,978 10,231 3 13,204 12,205 11,350 10,874 10,094 4 13,137 12,122 11,249 10,745 9,913 5 13,069 12,034 11,134 10,594 9,693 6 13,000 11,940 11,007 10,449 9,539 7 12,931 11,840 10,869 10,293 9,376 8 12,861 11,736 10,720 10,126 9,207 9 12,791 11,627 10,563 9,951 9,031 10 12,720 11,514 10,397 9,768 8,849 11 12,649 11,397 10,224 9,577 8,661 12 12,577 11,277 10,045 9,380 8,467 13 12,504 11,153 9,860 9,178 8,269 14 12,432 11,027 9,671 8,970 8,067 15 12,358 10,899 9,477 8,757 7,860 16 12,284 10,768 9,278 8,541 7,649 17 12,210 10,635 9,077 8,320 7,435 18 12,135 10,500 8,872 8,096 7,218 19 12,059 10,364 8,664 7,869 6,998 20 11,983 10,225 8,454 7,640 6,775 DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 12 Table 3-8 Projected net energy output for 585Wp Generic module [MWh/year] Year P50 P75 P90 P95 P99 1 13,244 12,263 11,431 10,979 10,249 2 13,176 12,192 11,355 10,899 10,157 3 13,107 12,115 11,267 10,793 10,019 4 13,038 12,031 11,164 10,664 9,838 5 12,969 11,942 11,048 10,513 9,618 6 12,899 11,847 10,921 10,367 9,463 7 12,829 11,746 10,782 10,210 9,300 8 12,758 11,641 10,633 10,043 9,130 9 12,686 11,531 10,475 9,868 8,954 10 12,615 11,417 10,309 9,684 8,771 11 12,542 11,300 10,135 9,493 8,583 12 12,469 11,179 9,956 9,296 8,389 13 12,396 11,055 9,771 9,093 8,191 14 12,322 10,928 9,581 8,885 7,988 15 12,248 10,799 9,387 8,673 7,782 16 12,173 10,668 9,189 8,456 7,571 17 12,098 10,534 8,987 8,236 7,357 18 12,022 10,399 8,782 8,012 7,140 19 11,945 10,262 8,575 7,785 6,920 20 11,869 10,123 8,364 7,556 6,697 DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 13 Table 3-9 Projected net energy output for 600Wp Trina solar module [MWh/year] Year P50 P75 P90 P95 P99 1 13,334 12,352 11,517 11,062 10,330 2 13,265 12,281 11,441 10,981 10,238 3 13,196 12,203 11,352 10,875 10,099 4 13,127 12,120 11,249 10,745 9,917 5 13,058 12,030 11,133 10,592 9,695 6 12,988 11,934 11,004 10,446 9,539 7 12,917 11,833 10,864 10,288 9,375 8 12,846 11,727 10,714 10,120 9,204 9 12,775 11,617 10,555 9,943 9,026 10 12,703 11,502 10,388 9,758 8,843 11 12,630 11,384 10,214 9,567 8,653 12 12,557 11,262 10,033 9,368 8,458 13 12,484 11,138 9,847 9,164 8,259 14 12,410 11,010 9,656 8,955 8,055 15 12,335 10,881 9,460 8,741 7,847 16 12,260 10,748 9,261 8,523 7,635 17 12,185 10,614 9,058 8,301 7,420 18 12,109 10,478 8,852 8,076 7,201 19 12,032 10,341 8,643 7,848 6,980 20 11,955 10,201 8,432 7,617 6,755 DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 14 4 COST ESTIMATION DNV GL has evaluated the costs of the proposed PV project in Aomori for all PV module types. For comparison purposes, the simplified cost analysis approach focusing on the key main parameters are performed for this Project. DNV GL has selected the following key indicators for the analysis: • Capital Costs (CAPEX); • Operational Costs (OPEX) • Energy Generation (as presented in Section 3); • Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE); DNV GL has performed a preliminary analysis of the costs based on the preliminary design and benchmark from other similar projects and best practice. CAPEX, OPEX and LCOE have been estimated for each different PV module configuration: 450Wp, 535Wp, 545Wp, 585Wp and 600Wp. Energy generation results from Section 3 has been used for LCOE estimation. DNV GL highlights that the results of the analysis shall not be considered as final estimates of the expected PV plant economic evaluation. This should be revisited once the final design and project specific economic inputs are available. 4.1 Model Assumption DNV GL has assumed a common Project Finance, EPC and O&M structure based on standard industry for solar project development in Japan. The following assumptions are considered: • The CAPEX, OPEX and LCOE costs are estimated in JPY; • EPC contract is turnkey including all major equipment; • Quantities of BoS components are based on preliminary design described in Section 2; • PV module costs and transportation have been provided by the Customer; • Costs for other key equipment are based on DNV GL’s project experience and equipment providers; • O&M costs include all scheduled and unscheduled costs annualized; • The Project operational lifetime is assumed at 20 years; • Tariff rate for operational year 1-20 is estimated at 32 JPY/kWh based on the current FIT program; • Discount rate has been applied in the LCOE calculation based on the equity and debt cost assumption specific to Japan. However, DNV GL notes that this is not our area of expertise; and • Site-specific construction conditions in a remote heavy-snow mountainous district in Aomori. DNV GL highlights that the benchmark costs used in the analysis are based on DNV GL’s experience and we consider that reflect reasonable values for solar project development in Japan. However, DNV GL is aware that the costs can highly vary depending on the contractor, region, material availability, project restrictions and affections. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 15 DNV GL recommends revisiting each of the assumptions when specific inputs are provided. It should also be noted that commodity values are volatile and difficult to predict over the study horizon. However, since the above assumptions have been considered in all the scenarios, the comparison conclusion will remain valid. 4.2 CAPEX Analysis DNV GL has assumed costs for each of the capital expenses based on DNV GL’s project experience and costs provided by the equipment suppliers. DNV GL notes that the unit cost of PV modules and transportation cost in Table 4-1 has been provided by the Customer. Table 4-1 Customer cost inputs PV modules Unit cost Transportation cost 450Wp, 535Wp, 545Wp, 585Wp, 600Wp 25 JPY/Wp 2 JPY/Wp Based on the cost input from the Customer and DNV GL’s benchmark, the Capital costs for each PV module scenarios are summarized in Table 4-2 below. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 16 Table 4-2 CAPEX costs summary [JPY] 450Wp 535Wp 545Wp 585Wp 600Wp Trina Solar Generic module Trina Solar Generic module Trina Solar 375,435,000 375,570,000 375,723,000 375,570,000 375,360,000 22,400,000 21,000,000 16,800,000 21,000,000 16,800,000 125,125,000 125,125,000 125,125,000 125,125,000 125,125,000 37,500,000 37,500,000 37,500,000 37,500,000 37,500,000 HV Substation 150,000,000 150,000,000 150,000,000 150,000,000 150,000,000 Mounting Structure 211,423,539 187,935,228 187,861,500 175,637,993 171,657,490 DC conductor 1 (1500 V, 6 mm2 & MC4 connectors) 163,152,000 137,280,000 101,112,000 141,240,000 103,224,000 25,200,000 25,200,000 25,200,000 25,200,000 25,200,000 1,750,000 1,750,000 1,750,000 1,750,000 1,750,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 1,850,000 1,850,000 1,850,000 1,850,000 1,850,000 99,000,000 99,000,000 99,000,000 99,000,000 99,000,000 5,750,000 5,750,000 5,750,000 5,750,000 5,750,000 Optical Cables, Grounding Conductors 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 Module Transportation 30,034,800 30,045,600 30,057,840 30,045,600 30,028,800 Mounting Structure Transportation 30,034,800 30,045,600 30,057,840 30,045,600 30,028,800 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 5,005,000 5,005,000 5,005,000 5,005,000 5,005,000 52,000,000 52,000,000 52,000,000 52,000,000 52,000,000 Item PV Modules Combiner Box Inverter MV Transformer and Switchgear DC conductor 2 (1500 V, 38 mm2) LV AC conductor 1 (Inverter station) 600 V, 60 mm2 LV AC conductor 2 (AC combiner) 600 V, 100 mm2 MV AC conductor 3 (MV transformer) 6.6 kV, 60 mm2 SCADA System CCTV Combiner Box Transportation Inverter Transportation Trenching DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 17 450Wp 535Wp 545Wp 585Wp 600Wp Trina Solar Generic module Trina Solar Generic module Trina Solar 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 PV System Construction Cost (including piling & foundation) 772,500,000 650,000,000 633,333,333 650,000,000 633,333,333 PV System Installation (including module, mounting structure, inverters, DC/AC cable mounting, etc.) 1,013,076,923 900,000,000 741,923,077 893,076,923 738,461,538 6,500,000 6,500,000 6,500,000 6,500,000 6,500,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 250,000,000 250,000,000 250,000,000 250,000,000 250,000,000 Fencing Supply and Installation 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 Project management 39,495,105 36,000,000 33,448,951 35,899,301 33,398,601 Engineering Design Works 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 Commissioning: LV DC 10,042,886 7,511,400 5,534,689 7,424,730 5,486,031 Commissioning: Inverter 10,010,000 10,010,000 10,010,000 10,010,000 10,010,000 Commissioning: MV units 5,005,000 5,005,000 5,005,000 5,005,000 5,005,000 Commissioning: HV unit 5,005,000 5,005,000 5,005,000 5,005,000 5,005,000 Other soft cost: safety management & operation, temporary site office, etc. 23,587,354 21,500,000 19,976,457 21,439,860 19,946,387 Site Studies (site survey, geotechnical study, etc) 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000 Total EPC cost 3,731,782,407 3,437,487,828 3,216,428,687 3,421,980,007 3,026,667,490 BOS cost1 3,356,347,407 3,061,917,828 2,840,705,687 3,046,410,007 2,822,964,980 Item Site Levelling Project Substation construction cost (if any) Road Construction Drainage Works 1 BOS cost – Cost of total components excluding PV module cost DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 18 450Wp 535Wp 545Wp 585Wp 600Wp Trina Solar Generic module Trina Solar Generic module Trina Solar - -8.8% -15.4% -9.2% -15.9% Preliminary Site Studies 8,000,000 8,000,000 8,000,000 8,000,000 8,000,000 Land Lease Payment (during Construction) 3,980,725 3,280,125 2,768,762 3,259,940 2,758,669 Development Fee 80,000,000 80,000,000 80,000,000 80,000,000 80,000,000 Feasibility Studies/Survey 12,000,000 12,000,000 12,000,000 12,000,000 12,000,000 3,835,763,132 3,540,767,953 3,319,197,449 3,525,239,947 3,301,083,650 - -7.7% -13.5% -8.1% -13.9% 255.4 235.7 220.9 234.7 219.9 Item BOS reduction [%] Total CAPEX Optimization CAPEX [%] Relative CAPEX [JPY/Wp] Commentary for the EPC cost assumption accounted for in Table 4-2 The following site-specific conditions were taken into consideration in the EPC cost assumption for the construction of 15 MWdc solar PV power plant at the proposed site in Aomori: 1. The site is located in a remote heavy-snow mountainous district; hence, a longer construction period is expected due to a shutdown of construction activity during snow season. 2. A certain level of efforts for land levelling and implementation of hydrological system was assumed to convert the mountainous land to a solar PV power plant. In this context, a cost factor associated with earth works to develop a plateau of 100 m in elevation within the 13.7605 ha area as to Customer’s plan was accounted for as the relevant costs of trenching, site levelling and a part of system construction, respectively. 3. In consideration of a load bearing capacity to snow loads, sufficient load bearing foundation and structural components were taken into account. As such, the EPC cost assumption in Table 4-2 is likely to have some uplifts in comparison with a cost benchmark of 150 – 200 [JPY/WP] by the Customer. For the particular case with 545WP module, as an example, the total EPC cost was figured out as 220.9 [JPY/WP], increasing by 10.5 % compared to the maximum of benchmark. For further details about the cost-effectiveness comparison of Trina Solar’s modules (545 WP and 600 WP), please see Appendix A. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 19 4.3 OPEX Analysis DNV GL has assumed costs for each of the operational expenses based on DNV GL’s project experience in Japan. Additionally, DNV GL has assumed a reduction in the O&M fee between the different scenarios proportional to the number of PV module mounting structures. Based on the cost input from the Customer and DNV GL’s benchmark, the Operational costs for each PV module scenarios are summarized in Table 4-3 below. Table 4-3 OPEX costs summary [JPY] 450Wp Item 535Wp Trina Solar Generic module O&M Cost 741,094,028 Asset Management Cost Land Lease Payment 545Wp 585Wp 600Wp Trina Solar Generic module Trina Solar 716,992,356 714,962,723 706,490,837 704,099,459 600,000,000 600,000,000 600,000,000 600,000,000 600,000,000 104,964,000 104,964,000 104,964,000 104,964,000 104,964,000 81,331,250 81,331,250 81,331,250 81,331,250 81,331,250 150,174,000 150,228,000 150,289,200 150,228,000 150,144,000 1,677,563,278 1,653,515,606 1,651,547,173 1,643,014,087 1,640,538,709 Optimization OPEX [%] - -1.4 -1.6 -2.1 -2.2 Relative OPEX [JPY/Wp] 111.7 110.1 109.9 109.4 109.3 Maintenance Reserve Cost Decommissioning Cost Total OPEX 4.4 LCOE Analysis Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is a common measure that is used to compare different projects and technologies based on the combination of CAPEX, OPEX, energy generation and fuel cost over the entire project lifetime. DNV GL has applied the following LCOE formula which is widely accepted and had been used by International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) for LCOE estimation of renewable energy project [4]. This LCOE analysis formula is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) which calculates the cost of renewable energy technologies by taking into consideration the time value of money. The LCOE analysis formula is as below: DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 20 Source: Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2018, International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) The weight average cost of capital (WACC) or referred to as ‘the discount rate’ is equivalent to the expected return on capital invested. DNV GL has simplified the WACC calculation approach to be based on the debtto-equity ratio. The WACC formula is as follows: WACC = (Cost of Equity (%) x Share of Equity (%)) + (Cost of Debt (%) x Share of Debt (%)) The main assumptions considered for WACC calculation are presented in Table 4-4. Table 4-4 WACC Assumption for this Project Item Aomori Project Share of equity 5% Share of debt 95% Cost of equity 2.3% Cost of debt 2.6% WACC estimates (%) 2.6% Based on all input costs, the calculated LCOE for each module type is presented in Table 4-5 below. Table 4-5 LCOE Estimation Item LCOE Aomori Project [JPY/MWh] Optimization LCOE [%] 450Wp Trina Solar 535Wp Generic module 545Wp Trina Solar 585Wp Generic module 600Wp Trina Solar 25,795 24,304 22,811 24,141 22,696 - -5.8% -11.6% -6.4% -12.0% DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 21 5 SUMMARY Based on DNV GL’s cost analysis of five (5) different PV module, the optimization of CAPEX, OPEX and LCOE for each scenario are summarized as below. Table 5-1 Cost optimization summary Item 450Wp Trina solar 535Wp Generic module 545Wp Trina solar 585Wp Generic module 600Wp Trina solar CAPEX Base case -7.7% -13.5% -8.1% -13.9% OPEX Base case -1.4 -1.6 -2.1 -2.2 LCOE Base case -5.8% -11.6% -6.4% -12.0% DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 22 6 REFERENCES [1] “Satellite data characteristics,” [Online]. Available: http://solargis.info/doc/_docs/SolarGIS_data_specification.pdf. [2] “About The Japan Meteorological Agency,” [Online]. Available: https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/menu/menuabout.html. [3] “DNV GL White Paper on Photovoltaic Module Degradation,” DNV GL, February 2015. [4] Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2018, Abu Dhabi: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2019. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com 23 COST-EFFECTIVENESS COMPARISON BETWEEN MODULE TYPES As displayed in the table below, the major contributors of cost-effectiveness for Trina Solar’s modules (545WP and 600WP modules) are related to the cost impact of the optimization of DC configuration (e.g. cost-efficiency in BOS items – DC combiner boxes and conductors, as well as in DC commissioning works) and the cost-efficient construction promoting a shorter construction period than other modules and thus leading to lowering of labour costs (e.g. system installation, project management and relevant soft cost) and the land lease payment during construction. Table A-1 Comparison of cost-effectiveness between module types Item PV Modules Combiner Box Inverter MV Transformer and Switchgear 450WP 535WP Trina solar Reduction Generic module 375,435,000 0% 22,400,000 0% 125,125,000 0% 545WP Reduction Trina solar 375,570,000 0.04% 21,000,000 -6.25% 125,125,000 0% 585WP Reduction Generic module 375,723,000 0.08% 16,800,000 -25.00% 125,125,000 0% 600WP Reduction Trina solar Reduction 375,570,000 0.04% 375,360,000 -0.02% 21,000,000 -6.25% 16,800,000 -25.00% 125,125,000 0% 125,125,000 0% 37,500,000 0% 37,500,000 0% 37,500,000 0% 37,500,000 0% 37,500,000 0% HV Substation 150,000,000 0% 150,000,000 0% 150,000,000 0% 150,000,000 0% 150,000,000 0% Mounting Structure 211,423,539 0% 187,935,228 -11.11% 187,861,500 -11.14% 175,637,993 -16.93% 171,657,490 -18.81% DC conductor 1 (1500 V, 6 mm2 & MC4 connectors) 163,152,000 0% 137,280,000 -15.86% 101,112,000 -38.03% 141,240,000 -13.43% 103,224,000 -36.73% DC conductor 2 (1500 V, 38 mm2) 25,200,000 0% 25,200,000 0% 25,200,000 0% 25,200,000 0% 25,200,000 0% 1,750,000 0% 1,750,000 0% 1,750,000 0% 1,750,000 0% 1,750,000 0% 200,000 0% 200,000 0% 200,000 0% 200,000 0% 200,000 0% 1,850,000 0% 1,850,000 0% 1,850,000 0% 1,850,000 0% 1,850,000 0% 99,000,000 0% 99,000,000 0% 99,000,000 0% 99,000,000 0% 99,000,000 0% 5,750,000 0% 5,750,000 0% 5,750,000 0% 5,750,000 0% 5,750,000 0% Optical Cables, Grounding Conductors 20,000,000 0% 20,000,000 0% 20,000,000 0% 20,000,000 0% 20,000,000 0% Module Transportation 30,034,800 0% 30,045,600 0.04% 30,057,840 0.08% 30,045,600 0.04% 30,028,800 -0.02% Mounting Structure Transportation 30,034,800 0% 30,045,600 0.04% 30,057,840 0.08% 30,045,600 0.04% 30,028,800 -0.02% 700,000 0% 700,000 0% 700,000 0% 700,000 0% 700,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 52,000,000 0% 52,000,000 0% 52,000,000 0% 52,000,000 0% 52,000,000 0% LV AC conductor 1 (Inverter station) 600 V, 60 mm2 LV AC conductor 2 (AC combiner) 600 V, 100 mm2 MV AC conductor 3 (MV transformer) 6.6 kV, 60 mm2 SCADA System CCTV Combiner Box Transportation Inverter Transportation Trenching DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page A-1 Item Site Levelling PV System Construction Cost (including piling & foundation) PV System Installation (including module, mounting structure, inverters, DC/AC cable mounting, etc.) Project Substation construction cost Road Construction Drainage Works 450WP 535WP 545WP 585WP 600WP Trina solar Reduction Generic module Reduction Trina solar Reduction Generic module Reduction Trina solar Reduction 75,000,000 0% 75,000,000 0% 75,000,000 0% 75,000,000 0% 75,000,000 0% 772,500,000 0% 650,000,000 -15.86% 633,333,333 -18.02% 650,000,000 -15.86% 633,333,333 -18.02% 1,013,076,923 0% 900,000,000 -11.16% 741,923,077 -26.77% 893,076,923 -11.85% 738,461,538 -27.11% 6,500,000 0% 6,500,000 0% 6,500,000 0% 6,500,000 0% 6,500,000 0% 50,000,000 0% 50,000,000 0% 50,000,000 0% 50,000,000 0% 50,000,000 0% 250,000,000 0% 250,000,000 0% 250,000,000 0% 250,000,000 0% 250,000,000 0% Fencing Supply and Installation 75,000,000 0% 75,000,000 0% 75,000,000 0% 75,000,000 0% 75,000,000 0% Project management 39,495,105 0% 36,000,000 -8.85% 33,448,951 -15.31% 35,899,301 -9.10% 33,398,601 -15.44% Engineering Design Works 15,000,000 0% 15,000,000 0% 15,000,000 0% 15,000,000 0% 15,000,000 0% Commissioning: LV DC 10,042,886 0% 7,511,400 -25.21% 5,534,689 -44.89% 7,424,730 -26.07% 5,486,031 -45.37% Commissioning: Inverter 10,010,000 0% 10,010,000 0% 10,010,000 0% 10,010,000 0% 10,010,000 0% Commissioning: MV units 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% Commissioning: HV unit 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 5,005,000 0% 23,587,354 0% 21,500,000 -8.85% 19,976,457 -15.31% 21,439,860 -9.10% 19,946,387 -15.44% 25,000,000 0% 25,000,000 0% 25,000,000 0% 25,000,000 0.00% 25,000,000 0% Total EPC cost 3,731,782,407 0% 3,437,487,828 -7.89% 3,216,428,687 -13.81% 3,421,980,007 -8.30% 3,198,324,980 -14.29% BOS cost 3,356,347,407 0% 3,061,917,828 -8.77% 2,840,705,687 -15.36% 3,046,410,007 -9.23% 2,822,964,980 -15.89% Preliminary Site Studies 8,000,000 0% 8,000,000 0% 8,000,000 0% 8,000,000 0% 8,000,000 0% Land Lease Payment (during Construction) 3,980,725 0% 3,280,125 -17.60% 2,768,762 -30.45% 3,259,940 -18.11% 2,758,669 -30.70% 80,000,000 0% 80,000,000 0% 80,000,000 0% 80,000,000 0% 80,000,000 0% 12,000,000 0% 12,000,000 0% 12,000,000 0% 12,000,000 0% 12,000,000 0% 3,835,763,132 0% 3,540,767,953 -7.69% 3,319,197,449 -13.47% 3,525,239,947 -8.10% 3,301,083,650 -13.94% Other soft cost: safety management & operation, temporary site office, etc. Site Studies (site survey, geotechnical study, etc) Development Fee Feasibility Studies/Survey Total CAPEX DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page A-2 PV MODULE DATASHEET B.1. 450WP Trina Solar module DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page B-1 DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page B-2 B.2. 545WP Trina Solar module DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page B-3 DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page B-4 B.3. 600WP Trina Solar module DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page B-5 DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page B-6 INVERTER DATASHEET C.1. SMA Sunny Highpower PEAK3 - 143kW DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page C-1 DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page C-2 RACKING SYSTEM (PROPOSED RACKING DESIGN) D.1. 4 x 3 Landscape, 450 WP DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page D-1 D.2. 4 x 6 Landscape, 450 WP DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page D-2 D.3. 4 x 3 Landscape, 535 WP DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page D-3 D.4. 4 x 6 Landscape, 535 WP DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page D-4 D.5. 4 x 3 Landscape, 545 WP DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page D-5 D.6. 4 x 6 Landscape, 545 WP DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page D-6 D.7. 4 x 6 Landscape, 585 WP DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page D-7 D.8. 4 x 4 Landscape, 600 WP DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page D-8 D.9. 4 x 6 Landscape, 600 WP DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page D-9 About DNV GL Driven by our purpose of safeguarding life, property and the environment, DNV GL enables organizations to advance the safety and sustainability of their business. We provide classification and technical assurance along with software and independent expert advisory services to the maritime, oil and gas, and energy industries. We also provide certification services to customers across a wide range of industries. Operating in more than 100 countries, our 16,000 professionals are dedicated to helping our customers make the world safer, smarter and greener. DNV GL – Report No. 10265641, Rev. D – www.dnvgl.com Page D-10