Cap 34- Los incendios forestales en España ante al cambio climático

Anuncio
Impactos y Vulnerabilidad
J. M. Moreno1*, I.R. Urbieta1, J. Bedia2, J.M. Gutiérrez2, V.R. Vallejo3
1
Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo
2
Grupo de Meteorología, Instituto de Física de Cantabria, CSIC-UC, Santander
3
Universidad de Barcelona y CEAM (Barcelona, Valencia)
*
34
Correo electrónico: [email protected]
Los incendios forestales en España ante al cambio climático
Resultados clave
‡ /RV LQFHQGLRV DIHFWDQ D WRGR HO WHUULWRULR QDFLRQDO
SRUORTXHODJHVWLyQ\FRQVHUYDFLyQGHORVHFRVLVWHPDV
WHUUHVWUHVHVSDxROHVUHTXLHUHLUPiVDOOiGHODSUHYHQFLyQ
HLQWHJUDUODHFRORJtDGHORVHFRVLVWHPDVHQUHODFLyQFRQ
HOIXHJR
‡ (O FDPELR FOLPiWLFR LQFUHPHQWDUi OD IUHFXHQFLD GH
VLWXDFLRQHV GH PD\RU SHOLJUR DVt FRPR OD HVWDFLyQ GH
LQFHQGLRV+DVWDPHGLDGRVGHVLJORHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR
SUR\HFWDGR HV SRFR YDULDEOH H LQGHSHQGLHQWH GH ODV
HPLVLRQHVGHJDVHV GHHIHFWRLQYHUQDGHUR3RU WDQWROD
SODQL¿FDFLyQIXWXUDGHEHEDVDUVHHQHOFOLPDSUR\HFWDGR
QRHQHOSDVDGR
‡ /D JHVWLyQ GHEH KDFHUVH SRU REMHWLYRV HVSHFt¿FRV
LQFOX\HQGR OD GLVPLQXFLyQ GH OD SHOLJURVLGDG HO
PDQWHQLPLHQWR R PHMRUD GH ORV VHUYLFLRV HFRVLVWpPLFRV
R OD UHVLOLHQFLD GH ORV HFRVLVWHPDV DO IXHJR X RWURV
IHQyPHQRVH[WUHPRV/DJHVWLyQGHEHFRQWHPSODUHOXVR
GHOIXHJRSUHVFULWR
‡ /RV LQFHQGLRV VH FRQFHQWUDQ HQ DOJXQDV ]RQDV 6H
QHFHVLWD XQD FDUWRJUDItD KLVWyULFD GH ORV LQFHQGLRV SDUD
SRGHU DQWLFLSDUVH D ORV LPSDFWRV PiV LQGHVHDGRV +D\
TXH SODQL¿FDU FRQ HVSHFLDO DWHQFLyQ OD LQWHUID] XUEDQR
IRUHVWDO
Contexto
Descriptiva general de la ocurrencia de incendios en
España y tendencias
(Q HO ~OWLPR PHGLR VLJOR VH KDQ UHJLVWUDGR HQ
(VSDxD XQRV LQFHQGLRV IRUHVWDOHV ORV FXDOHV
DIHFWDURQ D FHUFD GH 0KD /D LQFLGHQFLD DQXDO
KD VLGR PX\ YDULDEOH PLHQWUDV TXH HQ OD GpFDGD GH
HO SURPHGLR DQXDO GH LQFHQGLRV UHJLVWUDGR HUD GH
DIHFWDQGR D KD HQ OD GpFDGD GH OD
GH PD\RU LQFLGHQFLD VH OOHJDURQ D UHJLVWUDU FDGD DxR
XQRV LQFHQGLRV DIHFWDQGR D XQ SURPHGLR GH
KD 'XUDQWH HO ~OWLPR GHFHQLR HO Q~PHUR PHGLR GH LQFHQGLRV FDGD DxR KD GLVPLQXLGR
DOJR KDVWD SHUR FRQ XQ FODUR GHVFHQVR GH
OD VXSHU¿FLH PHGLD TXHPDGD KD DQXDOHV
0$*5$0$ )LJXUD $ (VWDV YDULDFLRQHV VRQ
HO UHÀHMR GH FDPELRV H[SHULPHQWDGRV HQ HO SDtV HQ ORV
IDFWRUHV GHWHUPLQDQWHV GH OD RFXUUHQFLD \ PDJQLWXG
GH ORV LQFHQGLRV (Q FRQFUHWR GXUDQWH HVWH WLHPSR KD
FDPELDGRODVRFLRORJtD\HFRQRPtDHQSDUWLFXODUGHODV
]RQDV UXUDOHV FRQ VXV FRQVLJXLHQWHV HIHFWRV VREUH ORV
XVRVGHOVXHOR\ORVSDLVDMHVDVtFRPRQXHVWUDVSROtWLFDV
GH OXFKD FRQWUD LQFHQGLRV \ OD FDSDFLGDG GH KDFHUORV
IUHQWH 3RU RWUR ODGR SDUWH GH HVWDV YDULDFLRQHV UHÀHMD
FDPELRVHQODUHFROHFFLyQGHODLQIRUPDFLyQVLHQGRHVWD
PiVKRPRJpQHD\H[KDXVWLYDHQODV~OWLPDVGpFDGDVOR
TXHDIHFWDVREUHWRGRDORVLQFHQGLRVGHSHTXHxRWDPDxR
)LQDOPHQWHHOFOLPDDOLJXDOTXHHQHOUHVWRGHOPXQGR
KD FDPELDGR FRQ DXPHQWRV GH WHPSHUDWXUD GHVLJXDOHV
SHURJHQHUDOL]DGRV%UXQHWHWDO3pUH]%RVFROR
)HUQiQGH]0RQWHVHWDO$FHURHWDO
3RU RWUR ODGR ORV FDPELRV HQ OD SUHFLSLWDFLyQ DXQTXH
PHQRVUREXVWRVHYLGHQFLDQWDPELpQXQDWHQGHQFLDKDFLD
ODUHGXFFLyQGHODVPLVPDVVREUHWRGRHQLQYLHUQRHQOD
PLWDGVXUHVWHGHOSDtV*LRUJL/LRQHOOR3pUH]
%RVFROR%HJXHUtDHWDO
/RV LQFHQGLRV VH UHSDUWHQ SUiFWLFDPHQWH SRU
OD WRWDOLGDG GH QXHVWUD JHRJUDItD 3RGHPRV D¿UPDU
FRQ URWXQGLGDG TXH JHVWLRQDU QXHVWURV HFRVLVWHPDV
WHUUHVWUHV GHVGH OXHJR ORV IRUHVWDOHV UHTXLHUH HQWHQGHU
VX UHODFLyQ FRQ HO IXHJR 'H LJXDO PDQHUD FRQVHUYDU
QXHVWURV HFRVLVWHPDV WHUUHVWUHV SUHFLVD HQWHQGHU VX
HFRORJtDHQUHODFLyQFRQHOIXHJR6LELHQORVLQFHQGLRV
395
RFXUUHQGHPDQHUDJHQHUDOL]DGDODLQFLGHQFLDHQHOSDtV
QR HV XQLIRUPH SRU OR TXH KD\ ]RQDV SDUWLFXODUPHQWH
DIHFWDGDV(QWUHHOODVGHVWDFDQ*DOLFLDFRQHOGHORV
VLQLHVWURV\HOGHODVXSHU¿FLHIRUHVWDOWRWDODIHFWDGD
HQHO~OWLPRGHFHQLRHO/HYDQWHODV6LHUUDV%pWLFDV\HO
6LVWHPD&HQWUDO)LJXUD%&
TXHGDQHQKDGHDKDVRORVRQXQ
\GHPiVGHKDDSHQDVXQ/RVLQFHQGLRVPX\
JUDQGHV ! KD DOFDQ]DQ D LQFHQGLRV DQXDOHV GH
PHGLDFRQXQPi[LPRGHJUDQGHVLQFHQGLRVHQ
HQ GpFDGDV DQWHULRUHV VH DOFDQ]DURQ PHGLDV DQXDOHV GH
JUDQGHVLQFHQGLRVGpFDGDGHORV\GpFDGDGH
ORV0$*5$0$1RREVWDQWHHVWRVQ~PHURV
ODVXSHU¿FLHTXHTXHPDQHVWiHQUHODFLyQLQYHUVDFRQHO
WDPDxRGHPDQHUDTXHORVFRQDWRVDSHQDVVXSRQHQXQ
GHOWRWDOTXHPDGRFDGDDxRORVLQFHQGLRVSHTXHxRV
GHDKDXQORVGHDKDXQORVGH
DKDXQ\ORVPX\JUDQGHVXQSHULRGR
1R H[LVWH XQD WHQGHQFLD FODUD HQ FXDQWR D
YDULDFLRQHVGHOQ~PHURGHLQFHQGLRVPX\JUDQGHV!
KDSDUDHOSHULRGRWHVWGH0DQQ.HQGDOOIJ=
S RDOSRUFHQWDMHGHVXSHU¿FLHTXHTXHPDQ
IJ S /RV LQFHQGLRV RFXUUHQ PD\RULWDULDPHQWH HQ
YHUDQR VLHQGR ORV PHVHV GH -XOLR \ $JRVWR ORV TXH
FRQFHQWUDQDOUHGHGRUGHOGHODVXSHU¿FLHTXHPDGD
1R REVWDQWH HQ DOJXQDV iUHDV SDUWLFXODUPHQWH HQ
ODV SURYLQFLDV GHO 1RUWH SHQLQVXODU ORV LQFHQGLRV GH
SULPDYHUD H LQYLHUQR SXHGHQ VHU IUHFXHQWHV FRPR
FRQVHFXHQFLDGHSDUWLFXODUHVFRQGLFLRQHVGHFLUFXODFLyQ
DWPRVIpULFDGHO6XUTXHWUDHQYLHQWRVHFR\FiOLGRDOD
UHJLyQ&DUUDFHGRHWDO
/DPD\RUSDUWHGHORVLQFHQGLRVVRQSHTXHxRV
PXFKRV GH HOORV VHJ~Q GDWRV GHO SHULRGR DSHQDV VXSHUDQ HO QLYHO GH FRQDWR RWURV VH
Figura 1
A
B
C
Figura 1. Área quemada y número de incendios en España en el último medio siglo (A). Mapas del número total de incendios (B) y área quemada
DQXDOPHGLDKD&HQ(VSDxDHQORV~OWLPRVDxRVFXDGUtFXODVGH[NP/DViUHDVVRPEUHDGDVUHSUHVHQWDQODVXSHUÀFLHIRUHVWDO
(Mapa Forestal 1986-1997).
Fuente: EGIF (MAGRAMA) y elaboración propia.
396
Relaciones entre el clima, la meteorología
y los incendios
'DGR XQ FLHUWR SDLVDMH OD WHPSHUDWXUD OD
KXPHGDG GHO DLUH \ GH ORV FRPEXVWLEOHV \ OD YHORFLGDG
GHO YLHQWR HQWUH RWUDV GHWHUPLQDQ OD SUREDELOLGDG GH
TXH GDGD XQD IXHQWH GH LJQLFLyQ HVWD GHVHQFDGHQH XQ
LQFHQGLR 5RWKHUPHO /D HVWUHFKD UHODFLyQ HQWUH
PHWHRURORJtD H LQFHQGLR HV OD EDVH GH ORV GLIHUHQWHV
tQGLFHV GH SHOLJUR TXH XVDQ ODV DJHQFLDV GH SUHYHQFLyQ
\OXFKDFRQWUDLQFHQGLRV$QGUHZVHWDO)XMLRND
HWDO&DPLDHWDO3RUHMHPSORHOVLVWHPD
FDQDGLHQVH TXH HV XQR GH ORV PiV XWLOL]DGRV HQ OD
(XURSD PHGLWHUUiQHD FRQVLGHUD FLQFR tQGLFHV SDUFLDOHV
\ XQR ¿QDO ):, ¿UH ZHDWKHU LQGH[ SDUD FDUDFWHUL]DU
HO SHOLJUR GH LQFHQGLR YDQ :DJQHU 6X XVR HQ
LQYHVWLJDFLyQ HVWi DPSOLDPHQWH H[WHQGLGR GHELGR D OD
GLVSRQLELOLGDG GH GLIHUHQWHV EDVHV GH GDWRV %HGLD HW
DO 'LYHUVRV HVWXGLRV KDQ HQFRQWUDGR UHODFLRQHV
SRVLWLYDV HQWUH HO Q~PHUR GH LQFHQGLRV R OD VXSHU¿FLH
TXHPDGD \ XQDV SRFDV YDULDEOHV PHWHRUROyJLFDV HQWUH
ODVFXDOHVODWHPSHUDWXUD\ODSUHFLSLWDFLyQVRQODVPiV
IUHFXHQWHPHQWH XWLOL]DGDV 9i]TXH] 0RUHQR 3DXVDV9HUG~HWDO7XUFRHWDO(QRWURV
FDVRVVHKDQH[SORUDGRODVUHODFLRQHVHQWUHLQFHQGLRVH
tQGLFHVGHSHOLJUR3LxROHWDO5DVLOODHWDO
%HGLD HW DO D (VWRV tQGLFHV WLHQHQ OD YHQWDMD GH
FRPELQDU HQ XQD R SRFDV PpWULFDV GLYHUVDV YDULDEOHV
PHWHRUROyJLFDV (Q JHQHUDO SDUD OD (VSDxD SHQLQVXODU
ORVLQFHQGLRVVHYHQIDYRUHFLGRVSRUWHPSHUDWXUDVDOWDV
\SUHFLSLWDFLRQHVGHLQYLHUQREDMDV9HUG~HWDO
(Q DOJXQRV FDVRV VH KD GHPRVWUDGR TXH PiV TXH ODV
FRQGLFLRQHVPHGLDVUHLQDQWHVHQODHVWDFLyQGHLQFHQGLRV
HOYHUDQRQRUPDOPHQWHODVFRQGLFLRQHVH[WUHPDVHVWR
HVYDORUHVSRUHQFLPDGHWDORFXDOYDORUGHODVYDULDEOHV
PHWHRUROyJLFDV UHOHYDQWHV R tQGLFHV GH SHOLJUR R HO
Q~PHUR GH GtDV SRU HQFLPD GH GLFKRV YDORUHV VRQ ODV
TXHWHUPLQDQVLHQGRGHWHUPLQDQWHVGHODJUDYHGDGGHOD
WHPSRUDGDGHLQFHQGLRV9i]TXH]0RUHQR3LxRO
HWDO5DVLOODHWDO
/DV VLWXDFLRQHV GH IDOWD GH OOXYLD SHUVLVWHQWH
FRPRGXUDQWHODVVHTXtDVVRQLJXDOPHQWHSURSLFLDVSDUD
ORV LQFHQGLRV DXQTXH OD LQWHQVLGDG GH VX UHODFLyQ FRQ
ORVLQFHQGLRVYDUtDVHJ~Q]RQDV&DUUDFHGRHWDO
/DV UHODFLRQHV HQWUH tQGLFHV GH VHTXtD FRPR HO FyGLJR
GH VHTXtD '& GHO VLVWHPD FDQDGLHQVH \ OD RFXUUHQFLD
GHLQFHQGLRVPXHVWUDTXHHVWRVVRORVRQSRVLEOHVDSDUWLU
GH GHWHUPLQDGRV YDORUHV XPEUDOHV GHO tQGLFH /RHSIH
HW DO /D LQÀXHQFLD GH OD PHWHRURORJtD QR VH
FLUFXQVFULEHDODxRHQFXUVRVLQRTXHHQDOJXQRVFDVRV
VH KDQ HQFRQWUDGR UHODFLRQHV FRQ OD PHWHRURORJtD GH
DxRV DQWHULRUHV SDUWLFXODUPHQWH FRQ ODV SUHFLSLWDFLRQHV
3DXVDV7XUFRHWDOKDELpQGRVHHQFRQWUDGR
TXHDxRVOOXYLRVRVDQWHULRUHVDOGHODHVWDFLyQHQFXUVR
VH FRUUHODFLRQDQ FRQ VLWXDFLRQHV GH PD\RU LQFLGHQFLD
GHLQFHQGLRV(VWRVXJLHUHXQDLQWHUDFFLyQLQGLUHFWDSRU
ODYtDGHODDFXPXODFLyQGHOFRPEXVWLEOHDXQTXHGLFKD
UHODFLyQQRVHKDSUREDGR3RURWURODGRODUHODFLyQFRQOD
SUHFLSLWDFLyQGHODxRHQFXUVRSXHGHYDULDUGHSHQGLHQGR
GH OD HVWDFLyQ 0LHQWUDV TXH OD SUHFLSLWDFLyQ DOWD HQ
SULPDYHUDIDYRUHFHORVLQFHQGLRVODGHYHUDQRORVUHGXFH
;\VWUDNLVHWDO
'H SDUWLFXODU UHOHYDQFLD VRQ ORV JUDQGHV
LQFHQGLRV GDGD OD DOWD SURSRUFLyQ GH VXSHU¿FLH TXH
TXHPDQ HQ UHODFLyQ D VX Q~PHUR SURSRUFLyQ TXH YDUtD
VHJ~Q]RQDVPiVRPHQRVSHOLJURVDVVLHQGRWDQWRPD\RU
FXDQWRPD\RUHVODSHOLJURVLGDGGHXQWHUULWRULR9i]TXH]
0RUHQR 9HUG~ HW DO (Q JHQHUDO ORV
LQFHQGLRV GH PD\RU WDPDxR YLHQHQ GHWHUPLQDGRV PiV
SRUODVFRQGLFLRQHVPHWHRUROyJLFDVTXHSRUIDFWRUHVGHO
WHUUHQRLQFOXLGRHOWLSRGHXVRGHOVXHOR6RQGHWHUPLQDQWHV
GHHVWRVVREUHWRGRHQODV]RQDVPHGLWHUUiQHDVGHDOWLWXG
LQWHUPHGLD ODV DOWDV WHPSHUDWXUDV HIHFWR SRVLWLYR \
ODVSUHFLSLWDFLRQHVGHLQYLHUQRHIHFWRQHJDWLYR9HUG~
HW DO /D UHODFLyQ HQWUH JUDQGHV LQFHQGLRV \ ODV
FRQGLFLRQHVGHVHTXtDGHOFRPEXVWLEOHQRHVOLQHDOVLQR
TXHH[LVWHQGLIHUHQWHVXPEUDOHVSRUGHEDMRRSRUHQFLPD
GH ORV FXDOHV HVWRV QR SURVSHUDQ (Q HO SULPHU FDVR HO
H[FHVRGHKXPHGDGVHUtDORTXHORVOLPLWDPLHQWUDVTXH
HQ HO VHJXQGR OR VHUtD SUHVXPLEOHPHQWH OD IDOWD GH
FRPEXVWLEOHDOGDUVHVLWXDFLRQHVGHPD\RUGp¿FLWKtGULFR
HQODV]RQDVFRQPHQRUSUHFLSLWDFLyQ\SRUHQGHPHQRV
SURGXFWLYDV/RHSIHHWDO'LIHUHQWHVVLWXDFLRQHV
VLQySWLFDVGHFLUFXODFLyQDWPRVIpULFDSURGXFHQGLVWLQWDV
SUREDELOLGDGHVGHSHOLJURH[WUHPR\FRQVLJXLHQWHPHQWH
GHULHVJRGHJUDQGHVLQFHQGLRV3HUHLUDHWDO7ULJR
HWDO5DVLOODHWDO1RREVWDQWHODHIHFWLYLGDG
GHXQGHWHUPLQDGRSDWUyQHQSURGXFLUJUDQGHVLQFHQGLRV
QRHVKRPRJpQHDHQWRGRHOWHUULWRULRQDFLRQDOSHQLQVXODU
$Vt PLHQWUDV TXH VLWXDFLRQHV GH DOWDV WHPSHUDWXUDV \
EDMD KXPHGDG UHODWLYD MXQWR FRQ YLHQWR PRGHUDGR GHO
HVWH R VXUHVWH VRQ GHWHUPLQDQWHV GH JUDQGHV LQFHQGLRV
HQHORHVWHSHQLQVXODUHQHOOHYDQWHHVPiVLPSRUWDQWHOD
SUHVHQFLDGHYLHQWRVIXHUWHVGHVFHQGHQWHVDFRPSDxDGRV
GH EDMD KXPHGDG UHODWLYD LQGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWH GH OD
WHPSHUDWXUD0LOOiQHWDO5DVLOODHWDO/D
SHUVLVWHQFLDGHSDUWLFXODUHVVLWXDFLRQHVGHSHOLJURSXHGH
GHULYDU HQ HSLVRGLRV GH JUDQGHV LQFHQGLRV TXH SXHGHQ
WHUPLQDU DIHFWDQGR D JUDQGHV H[WHQVLRQHV GHO WHUULWRULR
6LWXDFLRQHVGHHVWHWLSRTXHJHQHUDQORTXHVHKDGDGR
HQ OODPDU PHJDLQFHQGLRV RFXUULHURQ HQ HO /HYDQWH HQ
0RUHQR HW DO R HQ *DOLFLD HQ 6DQ
0LJXHO$\DQ] HW DO &LUFXQVWDQFLDV GH HVWH WLSR
IUHFXHQWHPHQWH DVRFLDGDV D RODV GH FDORU \ HQ DOJ~Q
FDVRDGp¿FLWGHSUHFLSLWDFLRQHVVHKDQGDGRWDPELpQHQ
RWUDV]RQDVPHGLWHUUiQHDVFRPRHQ3RUWXJDOHQORVDxRV
\RHQ*UHFLDHQHQWUHRWURV3HUHLUDHW
DO.RXWVLDVHWDO6DQ0LJXHO$\DQ]HWDO
Otros factores determinantes de los incendios
$SHVDUGHODLPSRUWDQFLDGHODPHWHRURORJtDHQ
ORV LQFHQGLRV OD FDSDFLGDG SUHGLFWLYD GH OD RFXUUHQFLD
GH LQFHQGLRV Q~PHUR R VXSHU¿FLH TXHPDGD HQ XQ
SHULRGRGDGRHQEDVHDYDULDEOHVPHWHRUROyJLFDVRVXV
DJUHJDGDVFOLPiWLFDVGLUHFWDVYJUOOXYLDVGHSULPDYHUD
WHPSHUDWXUD PHGLD GH OD HVWDFLyQ GH LQFHQGLRV R
LQGLUHFWDVYJUtQGLFHVGHSHOLJURVXHOHVHUEDMDORTXH
LQGLFDTXHRWUDVYDULDEOHVLQWHUYLHQHQHQHOSURFHVRSDUD
GHWHUPLQDUODLQFLGHQFLDGHLQFHQGLRVHQXQOXJDUGDGR
(VWRHVGHELGRDTXHODPD\RUSDUWHGHORVLQFHQGLRVHQ
(VSDxDHVGHRULJHQKXPDQR9i]TXH]0RUHQR
0$*5$0$ OR TXH GL¿FXOWD VX SUHGLFWLELOLGDG
$Vt ODV LJQLFLRQHV QR RFXUUHQ DO D]DU QL HQ HO HVSDFLR
QL HQ HO WLHPSR %DGLD3HUSLQ\i 3DOODUHV%DUEHUD
$PDWXOOL HW DO *RQ]iOH]2ODEDUUtD HW DO
)XHQWHV6DQWRVHWDO&KDV$PLOHWDO
&RQVLJXLHQWHPHQWHHOWHUULWRULRQRVHTXHPDGHPDQHUD
DOHDWRULDVLHQGRQRUPDOTXHXQDV]RQDVDUGDQPiVTXH
RWUDV 'H LJXDO PDQHUD HQ XQ PLVPR OXJDU XQRV WLSRV
GHYHJHWDFLyQVXHOHQDUGHUPiVIUHFXHQWHPHQWHTXHRWURV
PDWRUUDOHV R FRQtIHUDV IUHQWH D ERVTXHV FDGXFLIROLRV
R VLVWHPDV DJURSDVWRUDOHV'tD]'HOJDGR HW DO 9HUG~HWDO0RUHQRHWDO%DUURV3HUHLUD
3RURWURODGRODSUREDELOLGDGGHTXHXQLQFHQGLR
397
VH SURSDJXH VH YH IDYRUHFLGD SRU OD FRQ¿JXUDFLyQ
HVSDFLDOGHODVPDQFKDVGHYHJHWDFLyQTXHFRQIRUPDQHO
SDLVDMH8QDPD\RUGLYHUVLGDGHVSDFLDO\GLVFRQWLQXLGDG
GHORVWLSRVGHFRPEXVWLEOHGL¿FXOWDODSURSDJDFLyQGHO
IXHJR\IDYRUHFHHODWDTXHKDFLHQGRTXHHOLQFHQGLRVHD
PHQRU9LHGPDHWDO/RHSIHHWDO0iVDXQ
ORV SURSLRV LQFHQGLRV SXHGHQ FRQWULEXLU D FDPELDU OD
FRPSRVLFLyQ\HVWUXFWXUDGHOSDLVDMHLQFUHPHQWDQGRVX
KRPRJHQHLGDG \ SHOLJURVLGDG 9LHGPD HW DO 'H
KHFKRHQDOJXQRVFDVRVVHKDGHPRVWUDGRXQDLQWHUDFFLyQ
SRVLWLYD HQWUH OD RFXUUHQFLD GH XQ SULPHU LQFHQGLR \ HO
VLJXLHQWH9i]TXH]0RUHQR6DOYDGRUHWDO
3RU WDQWR OD SHOLJURVLGDG GH XQ SDLVDMH HV FDPELDQWH
\ ORV SURSLRV LQFHQGLRV SXHGHQ FRQWULEXLU D HOOR /D
YDULDFLyQKLVWyULFDGHORVGLYHUVRVIDFWRUHVTXHMXQWRDO
FOLPDDIHFWDQDORVLQFHQGLRVIDFWRUHVVRFLRHFRQyPLFRV
SDLVDMtVWLFRV R GH FDSDFLGDG GH OXFKD FRQWUD HO IXHJR
HQWUHRWURV0DUWtQH])HUQiQGH]HWDO0RUHQR
&KXYLHFR FRPSOLFD OD GHWHUPLQDFLyQ FDXVDO GHO
HIHFWRGHOFOLPD\GHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFRHQORVLQFHQGLRV
(QODPD\RUtDGHDQiOLVLVVHVXHOHDVXPLUTXHHOSHVRGHO
UHVWRGHORVIDFWRUHVQRKDVLGRVLJQL¿FDWLYRSRUORTXH
UDUDPHQWHVHWLHQHQHQFXHQWDDOHVWXGLDUWDOHVUHODFLRQHV
OR FXDO SXHGH LQGXFLU D HUURU &LHUWDPHQWH HV GLItFLO
FXDQWL¿FDU FXiQWR FRQWULEX\HQ ORV GLIHUHQWHV IDFWRUHV D
ORVLQFHQGLRVTXHKDQRFXUULGRHQXQSHULRGRGDGR(VWD
OLPLWDFLyQ HV LPSRUWDQWH D OD KRUD GH FDOFXODU HO ULHVJR
IXWXUR GH LQFHQGLRV VREUH OD EDVH GH SUR\HFFLRQHV GH
FDPELRFOLPiWLFRRGHRWURVFDPELRVSDLVDMtVWLFRVRGH
RWUDQDWXUDOH]D
Los incendios en un contexto de clima futuro
y otros cambios
Proyecciones de clima futuro de interés
para los incendios
/DPD\RUSDUWHGHORVLPSDFWRVGHOFOLPDIXWXUR
VREUH HO SHOLJUR GH LQFHQGLR X RWURV VHFWRUHV GH LQWHUpV
VH KD UHDOL]DGR KDVWD DKRUD HQ EDVH D ORV HVFHQDULRV
65(6 GHO ,3&& 1DNLüHQRYLü 3DUD (XURSD ODV
SUR\HFFLRQHV PiV FRPSOHWDV GH FOLPD IXWXUR IXHURQ
JHQHUDGDV SRU HO SUR\HFWR (16(0%/(61 YDQ GHU
/LQGHQ0LWFKHOOXVDQGRHOHVFHQDULR$EFRPR
UHIHUHQFLD\XQDUHVROXFLyQHVSDFLDOPi[LPDGHNP
(Q(VSDxDHVWDVSUR\HFFLRQHVKDQVLGRFRPSOHWDGDVFRQ
VLPXODFLRQHV HTXLYDOHQWHV FRQVLGHUDQGR WDPELpQ RWURV
HVFHQDULRV \ WpFQLFDV HVWDGtVWLFDV GH UHJLRQDOL]DFLyQ
SURGXFLGDV HQ HO PDUFR GHO 31$&& *XWLpUUH] HW DO
)HUQiQGH] HW DO (O HVFHQDULR$E DVXPH
XQ FUHFLPLHQWR UiSLGR GH OD HFRQRPtD \ WHFQRORJtD OD
SREODFLyQPXQGLDODXPHQWDKDVWDPHGLDGRVGHOSUHVHQWH
VLJORSDUDOXHJRHVWDELOL]DUVH7RGRHOORFRQOOHYDUtDXQ
DXPHQWR UiSLGR GH HPLVLRQHV KDVWD PHGLDGRV GH VLJOR
\ XQD GLVPLQXFLyQ SRVWHULRU (O SODQWHDPLHQWR XVDGR
HQ HO 65(6 SDUD OD JHQHUDFLyQ GH HVFHQDULRV GH FOLPD
IXWXUR KD VLGR PRGL¿FDGR UHFLHQWHPHQWH 0RVV HW DO
(VWD QXHYD JHQHUDFLyQ GH HVFHQDULRV &0,3
7D\ORU HW DO KD VLGR OD EDVH GHO ~OWLPR LQIRUPH
GHO ,3&& 6WRFNHU HW DO 1R REVWDQWH GDGR TXH
OD PD\RUtD GH ORV HVWXGLRV GH LPSDFWR GLVSRQLEOHV
VLJXHQ EDViQGRVH D~Q HQ ORV HVFHQDULRV 65(6 LQWHUHVD
FRPSDUDU DPEDV DSUR[LPDFLRQHV SDUD SRGHU YDORUDUODV
DGHFXDGDPHQWH 5HFLHQWHPHQWH VH KDQ SXEOLFDGR SDUD
KWWSZZZHQVHPEOHVHXRUJ
1
2
398
KWWSZZZDHPHWHVHVVHUYLFLRVFOLPDWLFRVFDPELRBFOLPDW
(XURSDSUR\HFFLRQHVGHFOLPDIXWXURFRQXQDUHVROXFLyQ
GH NP EDVDGRV HQ GRV GH HVWRV QXHYRV HVFHQDULRV
5&3 \ 5&3 -DFRE HW DO (O HVFHQDULR
$EDQWLFLSDXQFDOHQWDPLHQWRJOREDOGHž&SDUD
¿QDOHVGHVLJOR(VWHFDOHQWDPLHQWRHVLQWHUPHGLRHQWUH
ORSUR\HFWDGRSDUDHOHVFHQDULR5&3PiVPRGHUDGR
TXH DVXPH XQD GLVPLQXFLyQ GH ODV HPLVLRQHV D SDUWLU
GHPHGLDGRVGHVLJOR\HO5&3PiVHOHYDGRFRQ
HPLVLRQHVHQFRQWLQXRDXPHQWR\TXHVHFRUUHVSRQGHHQ
JUDQPHGLGDFRQODWHQGHQFLDGHODVHPLVLRQHVDFWXDOHV
&ROOLQVHWDO/DVGLIHUHQFLDVHQODVSUR\HFFLRQHV
HQWUH HVWDV DSUR[LPDFLRQHV VRQ FXDQWLWDWLYDV HQ WDQWR
HQ FXDQWR GHSHQGHQ GH OD PDJQLWXG GH ODV HPLVLRQHV
/DV UHODFLRQHV HVSDFLDOHV VH PDQWLHQHQ FRQ SHTXHxDV
GLIHUHQFLDVHQJUDQSDUWHGHELGDVDODPD\RUUHVROXFLyQ
HVSDFLDOGHORV~OWLPRVPRGHORV/DVJHQHUDOLGDGHVTXH
HPHUJHQSDUDODUHJLyQGHO6XUGH(XURSDVHQVX0HW]JHU
HWDOVLUYHQELHQSDUDFDUDFWHUL]DUHOFOLPDIXWXUR
GH(VSDxD
(Q JHQHUDO SDUD OD UHJLyQ GHO 6XU GH (XURSD
VH SUHYp XQ FDOHQWDPLHQWR FRQIRUPH GLVFXUUD HO
VLJOR ;;, WDQWR PD\RU FXDQWR PD\RU VHD HO QLYHO GH
HPLVLRQHV 5&3 IUHQWH D 5&3 (Q OD 3HQtQVXOD
,EpULFD HO FDOHQWDPLHQWR HV PD\RU KDFLD HO LQWHULRU \
VXUHVWH TXH HQ ODV ]RQDV SUy[LPDV D OD FRVWD 'H LJXDO
PDQHUD ODV SUHFLSLWDFLRQHV PHGLDV DQXDOHV GLVPLQX\HQ
FRQ HO WLHPSR FRQ XQD VHxDO WDQWR PiV UREXVWD FXDQWR
PD\RU HV HO QLYHO GH HPLVLRQHV /D GLVPLQXFLyQ GH ODV
SUHFLSLWDFLRQHV HV GHVLJXDO KDFLpQGRVH PD\RU KDFLD HO
VXUHVWH HQ FRPSDUDFLyQ FRQ HO QRUWH \ QRURHVWH (VWRV
SDWURQHV HVSDFLDOHV SUR\HFWDGRV SDUD OD 3HQtQVXOD
,EpULFD VRQ VLPLODUHV D ORV GHVFULWRV SDUD HO HVFHQDULR
$EGHO65(6VHJ~Q(06(0%/(6$VtHQJHQHUDOOD
FRUUHODFLyQHVSDFLDOSDUDHOVXUGH(XURSDHVPX\HOHYDGD
WDQWR SDUD OD WHPSHUDWXUD FRPR SDUD OD SUHFLSLWDFLyQ
\ SDUD PHGLDGRV R ¿QDOHV GH VLJOR -DFRE HW DO (VWRV FDPELRV VH FRUUHVSRQGHQ FRQ RWURV GH VLQJXODU
LPSRUWDQFLDSDUDORVLQFHQGLRVWDOHVFRPRDXPHQWRHQ
ODIUHFXHQFLDGHUDFKDVFiOLGDVRGHOQ~PHURGHQRFKHV
WURSLFDOHVFRQDOWDVWHPSHUDWXUDVDXPHQWRGHODVHTXtD
HVWLYDOGLVPLQXFLyQGHOFRQWHQLGRHQKXPHGDGGHOVXHOR
DXPHQWR GHO Q~PHUR GH GtDV FRQVHFXWLYRV VHFRV HQ HO
VXHOR R OLJHUDV GLVPLQXFLRQHV HQ OD KXPHGDG UHODWLYD
HQWUHRWURV-DFREHWDO&KULVWHQVHQHWDO
3RU WDQWR ODV VLWXDFLRQHV FOLPiWLFDV GHVIDYRUDEOHV SDUD
ORV LQFHQGLRV SXHGHQ DXPHQWDU HQ HO 6XU GH (XURSD
LQFOXLGDOD3HQtQVXOD,EpULFDH,VODV%DOHDUHV
Índices de peligro meteorológico
/DV SUR\HFFLRQHV UHJLRQDOHV GH FDPELR
FOLPiWLFR DQWHV GHVFULWDV SURSRUFLRQDQ OD LQIRUPDFLyQ
QHFHVDULD YDULDEOHV PHWHRUROyJLFDV SDUD HO FiOFXOR
GH GLVWLQWRV tQGLFHV GH SHOLJUR GH LQFHQGLR &RQYLHQH
UHFRUGDUTXHXQtQGLFHGHSHOLJURQRVGDXQDLGHDGHOD
IDFLOLGDGSDUDODLJQLFLyQODSURSDJDFLyQHOFRQWUROGHO
IXHJRRVXLPSDFWRQRGHODRFXUUHQFLDGHPiVRPHQRV
LQFHQGLRV HVWR HV GHO ULHVJR HQ VHQWLGR HVWULFWR 1RV
FHQWUDUHPRV HQ HO ):, \ VXV FRPSRQHQWHV GHO VLVWHPD
FDQDGLHQVH GH DPSOLD DSOLFDFLyQ \ SUREDGD HIHFWLYLGDG
HQ OD (XURSD 0HGLWHUUiQHD \ HQ (VSDxD /D HYROXFLyQ
IXWXUD GH HVWRV tQGLFHV SXHGH DQDOL]DUVH FRPSDUDQGR
ORVYDORUHVREWHQLGRVDSDUWLUGHODVSUR\HFFLRQHVHQXQ
SHUtRGRIXWXURSRUHMHPSORFRQORVYDORUHV
FDUDFWHUtVWLFRVGHOFOLPDDFWXDOREWHQLGRVDSDUWLUGHODV
SUR\HFFLRQHV HQ XQ SHUtRGR GH FRQWURO SRU HMHPSOR
'HHVWHPRGRHQEDVHDOVLVWHPDGHSHOLJUR
FDQDGLHQVHVHKDQGHVDUUROODGRUHFLHQWHPHQWHHVFHQDULRV
IXWXURV GH SHOLJUR SRWHQFLDO SDUD HO HVFHQDULR $E
XWLOL]DQGR WDQWR ORV HVFHQDULRV GLQiPLFRV JHQHUDGRV HQ
ORV H[SHULPHQWRV GHO SUR\HFWR (16(0%/(6 %HGLD HW
DOEFRPRSUR\HFFLRQHVHVWDGtVWLFDVGHHVFHQDULRV
31$&&TXHSURSRUFLRQDQGDWRVDHVFDODSXQWXDO
EDVDGDV HQ ORV UHJLVWURV GH HVWDFLRQHV PHWHRUROyJLFDV
%HGLDHWDO
(Q HO FDVR GH ORV HVFHQDULRV GLQiPLFRV GH
SHOLJUR IXWXUR VH KD FRQVLGHUDGR XQ FRQMXQWR GH PRGHORV UHJLRQDOHV DQLGDGRV D GRV PRGHORV JOREDOHV
GLVWLQWRV /RV UHVXOWDGRV LQGLFDQ TXH H[LVWH XQD VHxDO
FRQVLVWHQWH HQWUH ORV GLIHUHQWHV PRGHORV TXH UHYHOD GH
IRUPDLQHTXtYRFDXQDWHQGHQFLDDODXPHQWRGHOSHOLJUR
SRWHQFLDO GH LQFHQGLRV FRQ HO WLHPSR HQ OD 3HQtQVXOD
,EpULFD)LJXUD$VtGHXQ):,PHGLRHQ(VSDxDSDUD
ODHVWDFLyQWtSLFDGHLQFHQGLRVMXQLRVHSWLHPEUHGHHQ
WRUQR D VH SDVDUtD D FHUFD GH D ¿QDOHV GH VLJOR
(VWR GDUtD OXJDU D XQ LQFUHPHQWR SURPHGLR GH GtDV
HQ OD GXUDFLyQ GH OD HVWDFLyQ GH LQFHQGLRV \ KDUtD TXH
HOXPEUDOGHO):,LQWHUPHGLRHQODDFWXDOLGDGSXHV
VH UHEDVD DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH HO GH ORV GtDV SDVDVH
D VHU XQ XPEUDO FRP~Q TXH VH UHEDVDUtD PiV GHO GH ORV GtDV (O DQiOLVLV GH OD GLVSHUVLyQ GH ORV GLVWLQWRV
PRGHORVLQGLFDTXHHVWRVLQGLFDGRUHVVRQ¿DEOHVSDUDOD
HYDOXDFLyQ GH ODV FRQGLFLRQHV IXWXUDV GDGD OD OLPLWDGD
GLVSHUVLyQ GHO PXOWLPRGHOR HV GHFLU H[LVWH XQ DOWR
FRQVHQVRVREUHORVUHVXOWDGRVHQWUHORVGLVWLQWRVPRGHORV
Figura 2
Figura 2. 0DSDVGHSHOLJURIXWXUR(VFHQDULRVGHSHOLJURSRWHQFLDOGHLQFHQGLRVEDVDGRVHQODVSUR\HFFLRQHVGHOSUR\HFWR(16(0%/(6SDUDGRV
LQGLFDGRUHVGHODVFRQGLFLRQHVGHSHOLJURPHGLDV665¶6HDVRQDO6HYHULW\5DWLQJ·\):,¶)LUH:HDWKHU,QGH[·\GRVLQGLFDGRUHVGHSHOLJURH[WUHPR
):,SHUFHQWLOGHO):,\)27¶)UHTXHQF\RYHUWKUHVKROG·RSRUFHQWDMHGHGtDVTXHH[FHGHHOYDORUGH):, FRQVLGHUDQGRODHVWDFLyQ
GHLQFHQGLRVGH-XQLRD6HSWLHPEUHDPERVLQFOXVLYH$GHPiVHOLQGLFDGRU/2)6/HQJWKRIWKH)LUH6HDVRQLQGLFDHOQ~PHURGHGtDVGHGXUDFLyQ
GHODHVWDFLyQGHLQFHQGLRVWtSLFDHQHO0HGLWHUUiQHR6HPXHVWUDQWDQWRODVVLPXODFLRQHVGHOSHULRGRGHFRQWUROFRPRODVSUR\HFFLRQHV
IXWXUDVFRQVLGHUDQGRHOHVFHQDULRGHHPLVLyQ$%HQHVWHFDVRUHSUHVHQWDGDVFRPRDQRPDOtDVRGLIHUHQFLDVHQWpUPLQRVDEVROXWRVFRQUHVSHFWRDORV
YDORUHVGHOSHULRGRGHFRQWUROSDUDFDGDSXQWRGHODUHMLOOD/RVUHVXOWDGRVPRVWUDGRVFRUUHVSRQGHQDOSURPHGLRGHFLQFRPRGHORVUHJLRQDOHVGLIHUHQWHV
DFRSODGRVD*&0VGLIHUHQWHV/DGLVSHUVLyQGHOPXOWLPRGHORVHSUHVHQWDHQODFROXPQDGHUHFKDHQWpUPLQRVGHVXGHVYLDFLyQWtSLFD
Fuente: Adaptado de Bedia et al. (2014b).
399
'HO PLVPR PRGR ODV SUR\HFFLRQHV
UHJLRQDOL]DGDV PHGLDQWH WpFQLFDV HVWDGtVWLFDV FRLQFLGHQ
GH PDQHUD PX\ QRWDEOH FRQ ODV REWHQLGDV PHGLDQWH
VLPXODFLyQ GLQiPLFD FRQ ORV PRGHORV UHJLRQDOHV
WDQWR HQ HO SDWUyQ HVSDFLDO FRPR HQ OD PDJQLWXG GH
ORV FDPELRV SUHGLFKRV 1R REVWDQWH GHELGR D FLHUWDV
OLPLWDFLRQHVLQKHUHQWHVDOPpWRGRHVWDGtVWLFRHPSOHDGR
GLFKDV SUR\HFFLRQHV VRQ VROR ¿DEOHV KDVWD PHGLDGRV
GHO VLJOR ;;, \D TXH SUHVHQWDQ FLHUWD WHQGHQFLD D
VHVJDU QHJDWLYDPHQWH OD PDJQLWXG GHO FDPELR HQ ODV
~OWLPDVGpFDGDVGHOVLJOR;;,IUHQWHDODVVLPXODFLRQHV
GLQiPLFDV$~Q DVt HVWH LQFRQYHQLHQWH HV FRPSHQVDGR
SRU HO KHFKR GH TXH ODV SUR\HFFLRQHV HVWDGtVWLFDV
SURSRUFLRQDQ LQIRUPDFLyQ D HVFDOD SXQWXDO (VWR KDFH
TXHHQGHWHUPLQDGDVFLUFXQVWDQFLDVHVWDVSUR\HFFLRQHV
SXHGDQVHUSRWHQFLDOPHQWHPiV¿DEOHVTXHODVJHQHUDGDV
SRU XQD DSUR[LPDFLyQ GLQiPLFD (VWR RFXUUH FXDQGR
VH UHTXLHUH LQIRUPDFLyQ GHWDOODGD HQ UHJLRQHV FRQ XQD
RURJUDItD HVSHFLDOPHQWH FRPSOHMD R HQ ]RQDV OLWRUDOHV
GRQGH OD UHVROXFLyQ GH ORV PRGHORV UHJLRQDOHV SXGLHUD
QRVHUD~QVX¿FLHQWHSDUDUHSUHVHQWDUGHIRUPD¿GHGLJQD
ORV SURFHVRV D HVFDOD ORFDO (Q HVWH VHQWLGR FDEH GHFLU
TXH WDPELpQ ORV PRGHORV GLQiPLFRV SXHGHQ SUHVHQWDU
FLHUWD WHQGHQFLD D H[DJHUDU ODV FRQGLFLRQHV GH FDORU \
VHTXHGDGD¿QDOHVGHOVLJOR;;,0DUDXQSRUOR
TXH WDQWR HQ XQ FDVR FRPR HQ RWUR ORV UHVXOWDGRV SDUD
HVWH ~OWLPR SHULRGR GHEHQ VHU DQDOL]DGRV FRQ FDXWHOD
3RU OR WDQWR ODV WpFQLFDV HVWDGtVWLFDV \ ORV HVFHQDULRV
GLQiPLFRVSUHVHQWDQYHQWDMDV\GHVYHQWDMDVSDUWLFXODUHV
TXHKDFHQTXHDPERVWLSRVGHDSUR[LPDFLRQHVGHEDQVHU
FRQVLGHUDGDVFRQMXQWDPHQWH\GHIRUPDFRPSOHPHQWDULD
DODKRUDGHDERUGDUXQDHYDOXDFLyQDGHFXDGDGHOSHOLJUR
IXWXURFRQVLGHUDQGRODHVFDODGHDQiOLVLV\HOSUREOHPD
FRQFUHWRDUHVROYHU
3RU WRGR OR GLFKR SDUHFH FODUR TXH WRGRV ORV
PpWRGRV\HVFHQDULRVDSXQWDQDXQLQFUHPHQWRFODURGHO
SHOLJURSRWHQFLDOGHLQFHQGLRVHQOD(XURSD0HGLWHUUiQHD
HQJHQHUDO\HQDPSOLDV]RQDVGH(VSDxDHQSDUWLFXODU
D OR ODUJR GHO VLJOR ;;, DVt FRPR D XQ SURJUHVLYR
LQFUHPHQWR GH OD GXUDFLyQ GH OD HVWDFLyQ GH SHOLJUR
FRQ XQD SURJUHVLYD ³PHGLWHUUDQL]DFLyQ´ GH XQD DPSOLD
SDUWH GH ODV DFWXDOHV iUHDV GH LQÀXHQFLD DWOiQWLFD HQ
WpUPLQRV GH SHOLJUR SRWHQFLDO 0iV DOOi GH ORV SRVLEOHV
PHFDQLVPRV GH UHWURDOLPHQWDFLyQ HQWUH YHJHWDFLyQ H
LQFHQGLRVYHUSHM.UDZFKXN0RULW]3DXVDV
3DXOD \ OD HYROXFLyQ LQFLHUWD HQ ODV SROtWLFDV GH
SUHYHQFLyQ\PHGLRVGHH[WLQFLyQTXHSXHGHQLQWURGXFLU
QROLQHDOLGDGHV HQ ODV UHODFLRQHV FOLPDLQFHQGLRV D OR
ODUJRGHOWLHPSRSDUHFHHVSHUDEOHXQSRWHQFLDODXPHQWR
GHOQ~PHURGHLQFHQGLRV\ODJUDYHGDGGHODHVWDFLyQHQ
ODVSUy[LPDVGpFDGDVHQ(VSDxDFRPRVHDQDOL]DHQHO
VLJXLHQWHDSDUWDGR
3UR\HFFLRQHVHVSHFt¿FDVGHLQFHQGLRV
/DVSUR\HFFLRQHVUHDOL]DGDVVREUHODRFXUUHQFLD
IXWXUDGHLQFHQGLRVHQFRQFUHWRGHiUHDTXHPDGDEDVDGDV
HQH[WUDSRODUODVUHODFLRQHVSDVDGDVHQWUHORVFRPSRQHQWHV
GHOVLVWHPDFDQDGLHQVHGHSHOLJURPHWHRUROyJLFR\HOFOLPD
SDVDGR XVDQGR HVFHQDULRV GH FOLPD IXWXUR HVFHQDULRV
65(6PXHVWUDQTXHHOLQFUHPHQWRHQiUHDTXHPDGDHQ
(VSDxDSDUDODVWUHV~OWLPDVGpFDGDVGHOVLJORHQFXUVR
SRGUtD VHU LPSRUWDQWH \ WDQWR PD\RU FXDQWR PiV DOWDV
VHDQODVHPLVLRQHV$VtPLHQWUDVTXHSDUDHOHVFHQDULR%
EDMRHQHPLVLRQHVHOLQFUHPHQWRVHUtDGHOSDUDHO
$PiVLQWHQVRHQHPLVLRQHVHODXPHQWRVHUtDGHO
$QLYHOJOREDOGH(80HGSDtVHVGHWLSRPHGLWHUUiQHR
400
GH OD 8( HVWRV SRUFHQWDMHV DVFLHQGHQ DO \ UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH SDUD GLFKRV HVFHQDULRV $PDWXOOL HW
DO &iOFXORV UHDOL]DGRV LQGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWH SDUD
RWURVSDtVHVFRPR3RUWXJDODUURMDQDXPHQWRVPHQRUHV
§SDUDHOHVFHQDULR%HOPiVEDMRHQHPLVLRQHV
GH ORV FRQWHPSODGRV 3HUHLUD HW DO 3RU WDQWR
WRGR LQGLFD TXH DVXPLHQGR TXH ODV UHODFLRQHV SDVDGDV
VHPDQWLHQHQODLQFLGHQFLDGHLQFHQGLRVSXHGHDXPHQWDU
GH PDQHUD LPSRUWDQWH WDQWR PiV FXDQWR PD\RU VHD HO
FDOHQWDPLHQWR JOREDO FRPR FRQVHFXHQFLD GH XQ PD\RU
QLYHOGHHPLVLRQHV1RREVWDQWHKD\TXHVHxDODUODJUDQ
LQFHUWLGXPEUH GH HVWRV FiOFXORV WRGD YH] TXH VH EDVDQ
HQH[WUDSRODUUHODFLRQHVSDVDGDVVLQWHQHUHQFXHQWDORV
FDPELRV SDLVDMtVWLFRV R GH RWUD QDWXUDOH]D TXH SXHGHQ
LJXDOPHQWH LQFLGLU HQ HO ULHVJR IXWXUR GH LQFHQGLRV
$XQTXHVLQFXDQWL¿FDUVtSDUHFHPiVSUREDEOHTXHGDGD
ODPD\RUIUHFXHQFLDGHVLWXDFLRQHVH[WUHPDV%HGLDHWDO
EODVTXHKDFHQPiVSUREDEOHVORVJUDQGHV
LQFHQGLRVHVWRVVHUiQPiVIUHFXHQWHV
Interacciones con otros cambios
/D FRQWLQXDFLyQ GH ODV WHQGHQFLDV KDFLD
FDPELRV HQ ORV XVRV GHO VXHOR TXH VXSRQJDQ XQ PD\RU
LQFUHPHQWR HQ OD YHJHWDFLyQ QDWXUDO \ SRU WDQWR GHO
WHUULWRULRIRUHVWDOSXHGHDxDGLUPiVWHUULWRULRVXVFHSWLEOH
GH DUGHU (VWDV WHQGHQFLDV HVWDUiQ PX\ FRQGLFLRQDGDV
SRUODVSROtWLFDVDJUDULDVGHOD8QLyQ(XURSHD3$&\D
TXH ODV WLHUUDV PHQRV SURGXFWLYDV ODV PiV VXVFHSWLEOHV
GH DEDQGRQR VH PDQWLHQHQ FXOWLYDGDV JUDFLDV D ODV
VXEYHQFLRQHV GH OD 3$& /DV SUR\HFFLRQHV GH FDPELRV
GH XVRV GH VXHORV HIHFWXDGDV KDVWD DKRUD PXHVWUDQ XQD
PD\RU FRQFHQWUDFLyQ GH OD DJULFXOWXUD KDFLD ODV ]RQDV
PiV ULFDV \ XQ DXPHQWR GHO WHUULWRULR GHGLFDGR D RWURV
¿QHVLQFOX\HQGRHODEDQGRQR5RXQVHYHOOHWDO
(VWDV WHQGHQFLDV XQLGDV DO DXPHQWR GH FRPEXVWLEOH
FRQ HO SDVR GHO WLHPSR HQ ]RQDV DEDQGRQDGDV HQ ODV
GpFDGDV SUHFHGHQWHV SXHGHQ VHJXLU LQFUHPHQWDQGR OD
SHOLJURVLGDGGHOSDLVDMHHQDPSOLDV]RQDVGH(VSDxD3RU
RWURODGRHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFRSXHGHDFHOHUDUFDPELRVHQ
ODQDWXUDOH]DGHORVFRPEXVWLEOHVKDFLHQGRHOWHUULWRULR
PiV SHOLJURVR VREUH WRGR FRPR FRQVHFXHQFLD GH OD
PRUWDOLGDGYHJHWDOHQHVSHFLHVYXOQHUDEOHVHQSDUWLFXODU
DODIDOWDGHDJXD$OOHQHWDO/DSHUVLVWHQFLDGH
DOJXQDVSODQWDFLRQHVGHFRQtIHUDVDQWLJXDVEDMRHVFHQDULRV
FOLPiWLFRVPiVDGYHUVRVSDUWLFXODUPHQWHHQFRQGLFLRQHV
[pULFDV6iQFKH]6DOJXHURHWDOSXHGHFRQWULEXLU
DDXPHQWRVHQODPRUWDOLGDGGHORViUEROHVHLQFUHPHQWRV
HQODELRPDVDPXHUWDFRQHOFRQVLJXLHQWHLQFUHPHQWRHQ
ODSHOLJURVLGDGGHOSDLVDMH
/DV SUR\HFFLRQHV GH FDPELR FOLPiWLFR SXHGHQ
GDU OXJDU D OD DULGL]DFLyQ GH ODV ]RQDV GH FOLPD VHFR
VXEK~PHGRHQHOOtPLWHFRQHOVHPLiULGRFRQXQDSpUGLGD
GH FRPEXVWLEOH TXH UHGXFLUtD HO SHOLJUR GH LQFHQGLR
.UDZFKXNHWDO3DXVDV3DXOD3DXVDV
5LEHLUR (VWDV ]RQDV VHUtDQ ODV PiV YXOQHUDEOHV
HQ OD DFWXDOLGDG \ GXUDQWH HO SHULRGR GH DULGL]DFLyQ
SURJUHVLYD HQ OD PHGLGD HQ TXH PDQWHQJDQ VX¿FLHQWH
FRPEXVWLEOH FRPR SDUD SURSDJDU ORV LQFHQGLRV \ HQ
TXHODVFRQGLFLRQHVGHVHTXtDGL¿FXOWHQODUHJHQHUDFLyQ
SRVWLQFHQGLR \ HO FRQVLJXLHQWH DXPHQWR GHO ULHVJR GH
HURVLyQ \ GH GHJUDGDFLyQ LUUHYHUVLEOH GHO HFRVLVWHPD
/D GHJUDGDFLyQ GHO WHUULWRULR SRU OD KLVWRULD GH XVRV
FRQWULEX\HDDFHQWXDUGHIRUPDVLQpUJLFDHOHIHFWRGHOD
DULGL]DFLyQGHOFOLPD
(Q XQ WHUULWRULR GH ODUJD H LQWHQVD LQÀXHQFLD
KXPDQD FRPR HO HVSDxRO OD KLVWRULD GH XVRV GHO VXHOR
WLHQH XQ SDSHO GHWHUPLQDQWH HQ OD FRQ¿JXUDFLyQ GH OD
YHJHWDFLyQFRPEXVWLEOHVVXGLQiPLFD\VXUHVSXHVWDDO
IXHJR/DUHFXSHUDFLyQLQLFLDOGHOUHFXEULPLHQWRYHJHWDO
SURWHFWRU GHVSXpV GHO IXHJR GH OD YHJHWDFLyQ GRPLQDGD
SRUHVSHFLHVJHUPLQDGRUDVSLQRVMDUDVURPHURVHVPiV
OHQWDTXHODGHODVIRUPDFLRQHVGRPLQDGDVSRUHVSHFLHV
UHEURWDGRUDVTXHUFtQHDVHVFOHUR¿ODVHQJHQHUDOPXFKDV
KHUEiFHDVSHUHQQHV9DOOHMR\$OOR]D(OORKDFHTXH
HVWRVHFRVLVWHPDVHVWpQPiVH[SXHVWRVDODGHJUDGDFLyQ
SRVWLQFHQGLR3RUHOFRQWUDULR/RVPDWRUUDOHVGRPLQDGRV
SRUHVSHFLHVJHUPLQDGRUDVGHULYDGRVGHODFRORQL]DFLyQ
GHFXOWLYRVDEDQGRQDGRVRGHUHJHQHUDGRVGHVSXpVGHO
IXHJR DFXPXODQ JUDQ FDQWLGDG GH FRPEXVWLEOH PX\
SHOLJURVRHQSRFRVDxRV%DH]DHWDOGDQGROXJDU
FRQ IUHFXHQFLD D FLFORV GH LQFHQGLRV GH FRUWR LQWHUYDOR
TXH QR SHUPLWHQ XQD VXFHVLyQ D FRPXQLGDGHV PiV
PDGXUDV\PHQRVFRPEXVWLEOHV%DH]DHWDO
'H LJXDO PDQHUD HO UpJLPHQ GH LQFHQGLRV
SXHGHFDPELDUODFRQ¿JXUDFLyQ\FRPEXVWLELOLGDGGHORV
ERVTXHV/RVSLQDUHVPiVRPHQRVSXURVTXHVXSRQHQXQ
GHODVIRUPDFLRQHVDUERODGDVHVSDxRODVVHJ~QGDWRV
GHO$QXDULR GH (VWDGtVWLFD )RUHVWDO 0$*5$0$
SXHGHQVXIULUFDPELRVGUiVWLFRVVHJ~QODHVSHFLH
GH SLQR GRPLQDQWH /RV SLQDUHV GH 3LQXV KDOHSHQVLV
TXH SRVHHQ XQ EDQFR GH VHPLOODV SHUPDQHQWH HQ FRSD
XQDYH]DOFDQ]DGDODPDGXUH]VH[XDOHVSHFLHVHUyWLQD
VXHOHQ UHJHQHUDU DEXQGDQWHPHQWH GHVSXpV GHO IXHJR
IUHFXHQWHPHQWHHQH[FHVRGDQGROXJDUDUHJHQHUDGRVFRQ
YDULRVPLOHVKDVWDGHFHQDVGHPLOHVGHSLHVSRUKHFWiUHD
7KDQRV 'DVNDODNRX (VWRV UHJHQHUDGRV
SURGXFHQ PDVDV DOWDPHQWH SHOLJURVDV \ SRU OR WDQWR
GHEHQ VHU REMHWR GH FODUHR 8Q VHJXQGR LQFHQGLR DQWHV
GH TXH OD PDVD DOFDQFH OD PDGXUH] VH[XDO DxRV
VHJ~Q OD FDOLGDG GH OD HVWDFLyQ VXSRQH OD GHVDSDULFLyQ
ORFDOGHODHVSHFLHDOLJXDOTXHSDVDUiHQXQDSODQWDFLyQ
MRYHQ 3DXVDV HW DO (VWRV SLQDUHV GDUtDQ OXJDU
D PDWRUUDOHV FRQ FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV PX\ FRQGLFLRQDGDV
SRU OD KLVWRULD GH XVRV GH VXHORV 8Q FRPSRUWDPLHQWR
PX\ GLIHUHQWH HV HO GH ORV SLQRV TXH QR WLHQHQ EDQFR
GHVHPLOODVSHUPDQHQWHHQFRSDFRPR3LQXVQLJUDR3
V\OYHVWULVTXHFRQXQVRORLQFHQGLRGHFRSDV\DSXHGHQ
GHVDSDUHFHU ORFDOPHQWH 5HWDQD HW DO KDVWD TXH
SXHGDQUHFRORQL]DUHYHQWXDOPHQWHHOPRQWHGHVGHPDVDV
SUy[LPDVQRTXHPDGDV(VWRVSLQDUHVTXHPDGRVSXHGHQ
GDUOXJDUDPDWRUUDOHVRDPRQWHEDMRGHIURQGRVDVVLHVWDV
H[LVWtDQSUHYLDPHQWHHQHOVRWRERVTXHGHOSLQDU0HQFLyQ
HVSHFLDO PHUHFH HO FDVR GHO $ELHV SLQVDSR HVSHFLH HQ
SHOLJURGHH[WLQFLyQPX\YXOQHUDEOHDORVLQFHQGLRVGH
FRSD (Q VLWXDFLyQ RSXHVWD VH HQFXHQWUD ORV ERTXHV GH
IURQGRVDVHOIXHJRQRFDXVDODGHVDSDULFLyQGHODHVSHFLH
GRPLQDQWHGHELGRDODFDSDFLGDGGHUHEURWHJHQHUDOL]DGD
HQ ODV IURQGRVDV DXQTXH Vt SURPXHYH FDPELRV KDFLD
HVWUXFWXUDV GH PRQWH EDMR PiV FRPEXVWLEOHV D PHGLR
SOD]R(VSHOWDHWDO8QSXQWRDFRQVLGHUDUHVHO
GHOSDSHOGHO&2FRPRFRDG\XYDQWHDODSURGXFWLYLGDG
H LQFUHPHQWR HQ OD H¿FLHQFLD GHO DJXD SRU WDQWR HQ
PDQWHQHU OD DFXPXODFLyQ GH ELRPDVD SDUD HO IXHJR
$LQVZRUWK/RQJ6LWFKHWDO7DJXHHWDO
El papel de la prevención
$ SHVDU GHO DXPHQWR GH ODV FRQGLFLRQHV
PHWHRUROyJLFDVIDYRUDEOHVDODSURSDJDFLyQORVLQFHQGLRV
GXUDQWH ODV ~OWLPDV GpFDGDV OD VXSHU¿FLH TXHPDGD KD
GLVPLQXLGRHQ(VSDxD\HQHOFRQMXQWRGHORVSDtVHVGH
OD(XURSDPHGLWHUUiQHD6DQ0LJXHO$\DQ]HWDO
(OORDSXQWDDODPHMRUDHQODH¿FDFLDGHODOXFKDFRQWUDHO
IXHJR%URWRQVHWDO/DVSUR\HFFLRQHVGHFDPELR
FOLPiWLFR \ GH ORV XVRV GH VXHOR LQGLFDQ XQ DXPHQWR
GH ODV FRQGLFLRQHV GH SHOLJUR \ FRQVLJXLHQWH ULHVJR GH
LQFHQGLRVSHURREYLDPHQWHKD\PDUJHQSDUDODDGDSWDFLyQ
GHXQSUREOHPDTXH\DH[LVWH\TXHHYHQWXDOPHQWHYDD
HPSHRUDUHQVXPDJQLWXGLQWHQVLGDG\IUHFXHQFLD(OUHWR
HQODSUHYHQFLyQGHLQFHQGLRVVHFHQWUDHQODGLVPLQXFLyQ
GHODVLJQLFLRQHVDQWUySLFDVHQVXLQPHQVDPD\RUtDHQ
OD SODQL¿FDFLyQ GHO WHUULWRULR TXH SURPXHYD XQ SDLVDMH
PHQRV FRPEXVWLEOH \ VXVFHSWLEOH GH SURSDJDU JUDQGHV
PHJDLQFHQGLRV\PX\HVSHFLDOPHQWHHQODLQWHUID]
XUEDQRIRUHVWDOTXHHQ(VSDxDWLHQHXQDJUDQH[WHQVLyQ
(OULHVJRGHLJQLFLyQGHVGHODV]RQDVKDELWDGDVDOPHGLR
IRUHVWDO\YLFHYHUVDHVPX\DOWRFRQHOFRQVLJXLHQWHDOWR
ULHVJRSDUDODVSHUVRQDV\HVWUXFWXUDVXUEDQDV
Recomendaciones para la adaptación
/RV LQFHQGLRV IRUHVWDOHV VH UHSDUWHQ SRU WRGD OD
JHRJUDItD QDFLRQDO &RQVLJXLHQWHPHQWH QR HV
SRVLEOH JHVWLRQDU HO WHUULWRULR \ VXV HFRVLVWHPDV
WHUUHVWUHV WDQWR HQ ]RQDV SURWHJLGDV FRPR VLQ
SURWHJHU VLQ WHQHU HQ FXHQWD HO SDSHO GHO IXHJR
/D JHVWLyQ IRUHVWDO GHEH WRPDU HQ FRQVLGHUDFLyQ
HOULHVJRDFWXDO\IXWXURHLQFOXLUODSUHYHQFLyQHQ
VXVHVWUDWHJLDVGHGHVDUUROORWpFQLFRDVtFRPRODV
XOWHULRUHVFRQVHFXHQFLDVGHXQLQFHQGLRLQFOXLGD
OD UHVWDXUDFLyQ GH PRQWHV TXHPDGRV GDGR HO
HQRUPHGLQDPLVPRGHODV]RQDVTXHPDGDV
(O FDPELR FOLPiWLFR WUDH FRQVLJR XQ LQFUHPHQWR
GHOSHOLJURPHWHRUROyJLFRPHGLRDVtFRPRGHODV
VLWXDFLRQHVH[WUHPDV2WURVFDPELRVUHODFLRQDGRV
FRQHOFOLPDRODVRFLRHFRQRPtDSXHGHQFRQWULEXLU
WDPELpQDDXPHQWDUODSHOLJURVLGDGGHOWHUULWRULR
/RV VLVWHPDV GH OXFKD FRQWUD LQFHQGLRV GHEHQ
HVWDU SUHSDUDGRV SDUD KDFHU IUHQWH D VLWXDFLRQHV
DGYHUVDVPiVIUHFXHQWHVTXHSXHGHQGHVHQFDGHQDU
LQFHQGLRVP~OWLSOHV\VLPXOWiQHRVUHSDUWLGRVSRU
DPSOLDV]RQDVGHOWHUULWRULRQDFLRQDO
'LIHUHQFLDUORVREMHWLYRVGHODJHVWLyQHLQFRUSRUDU
OD HFRORJtD GHO IXHJR QR VROR OD SUHYHQFLyQ HV
LPSRUWDQWHGHFDUDDXQIXWXURGHPD\RUSHOLJUR
+D\ TXH GLIHUHQFLDU OD SURWHFFLyQ GH ORV DFWLYRV
KXPDQRV GH LQWHUpV HFRQyPLFR R GH RWUR WLSR
IUHQWHDORVDPELHQWDOHVGHPDQHUDH[SOtFLWDSXHV
ODFRQVHFXFLyQGHDPERVSXHGHVHUFRQWUDGLFWRULD
(O IXHJR FRPR DOLDGR GH OD JHVWLyQ SXHGH WHQHU
FDELGDSDUWLFXODUPHQWHHQORVVHJXQGRV$SDJDU
FXDOTXLHU IXHJR D FXDOTXLHU FRVWH SXHGH QR VHU
SRVLEOHRUHQWDEOHLQFOXVRGHVGHHOSXQWRGHYLVWD
HFROyJLFR
3ODQL¿FDU \ SUHYHQLU SHQVDQGR HQ HO IXWXUR
FRQ FRQGLFLRQHV GLIHUHQWHV D ODV GH D\HU HV XQ
LPSHUDWLYR 5HSHWLU SDUD PDxDQD OR GHO SDVDGR
SXHGH VHU HTXLYRFDGR SXHV ODV FRQGLFLRQHV
VHUiQGLIHUHQWHV(VWRUHTXHULUiXVDUKHUUDPLHQWDV
QXHYDVXVDQGRHVFHQDULRVTXHQRQHFHVDULDPHQWH
VHKDQGDGRHQHOSDVDGR(QXQIXWXURSUy[LPR
KDVWD PHGLDGRV GH VLJOR HO FDPELR FOLPiWLFR
TXH VH SUR\HFWD HV EDVWDQWH LQGHSHQGLHQWH GH
ORV HVFHQDULRV GH HPLVLRQHV IXWXUDV 3RU WDQWR
SRGHPRV FRQVLGHUDUOR FRPR FLHUWR \ XVDU ODV
KHUUDPLHQWDV GH SUR\HFFLyQ FOLPiWLFD H[LVWHQWHV
401
WDQWR GLQiPLFDV FRPR HVWDGtVWLFDV SDUD ORV
FiOFXORV GHO SHOLJUR IXWXUR \ RWUDV DFFLRQHV
SUHYHQWLYDV
/RV LQFHQGLRV WLHQGHQ D UHSHWLUVH HQ FLHUWDV
]RQDV &RQVHFXHQWHPHQWH ORV LPSDFWRV QR VRQ
KRPRJpQHRV $QWLFLSDUVH D ORV PiV LQGHVHDGRV
UHTXLHUH FRQRFHU FXiOHV VRQ ODV ]RQDV PiV
FUtWLFDV \ SODQL¿FDU ODV SRVLEOHV UHVSXHVWDV FRQ
DQWHULRULGDG 3DUD VDEHU HVWR OD HVWDGtVWLFD QR
HV VX¿FLHQWH +D\ TXH WHQHU EDVHV GH GDWRV TXH
SHUPLWDQVDEHUGyQGHKDQRFXUULGRORVLQFHQGLRV
GH PDQHUD HVSDFLDOPHQWH H[SOtFLWD 6H SUHFLVDQ
EDVHV GH GDWRV FDUWRJUi¿FDV GHO SDVDGR TXH
SHUPLWDQFRQRFHUFXiOHVVRQORVSXQWRVGHPD\RU
ULHVJRDQWHODRFXUUHQFLDGHXQQXHYRLQFHQGLR
/DV ]RQDV GH FRQWDFWR HQWUH HO PHGLR IRUHVWDO \
XUEDQRXUEDQL]DFLRQHVVREUHWRGRFRQVWLWX\HQHO
PD\RU SUREOHPD GH SURWHFFLyQ FLYLO RFDVLRQDGR
SRU ORV LQFHQGLRV $ SHVDU GH TXH \D H[LVWH
OHJLVODFLyQ HVSHFt¿FD SDUD OD SURWHFFLyQ GH OD
LQWHUID]XUEDQRIRUHVWDOVHGHEHQEXVFDUIyUPXODV
TXHPHMRUHQODH¿FDFLDHQHOFXPSOLPLHQWRGHOD
PLVPD H LQFRUSRUDU HO ULHVJR GH LQFHQGLR HQ OD
SODQL¿FDFLyQ GH WRGR GHVDUUROOR XUEDQtVWLFR HQ
FRQWDFWRFRQHOPHGLRIRUHVWDO
5HIHUHQFLDVELEOLRJUiÀFDV
$FHUR )- *DUFtD -$ *DOOHJR 0& 3DUH\ 6 'DFXQKD
&DVWHOOH ' 7UHQGV LQ 6XPPHU ([WUHPH
7HPSHUDWXUHV RYHU WKH ,EHULDQ 3HQLQVXOD XVLQJ
1RQ8UEDQ 6WDWLRQ 'DWD -RXUQDO RI *HRSK\VLFDO
5HVHDUFK$WPRVSKHUHV
$LQVZRUWK ($ /RQJ 63 :KDW KDYH ZH OHDUQHG
IURP \HDUV RI IUHHDLU &2 HQULFKPHQW
)$&("$ PHWDDQDO\WLFUHYLHZ RI WKH UHVSRQVHV
RI SKRWRV\QWKHVLV FDQRS\ SURSHUWLHV DQG SODQW
SURGXFWLRQWRULVLQJ&21HZ3K\WRORJLVW
$OOHQ &' 0DFDODG\ $. &KHQFKRXQL + %DFKHOHW '
0F'RZHOO 19HQQHWLHU 0 .LW]EHUJHU7 5LJOLQJ
$%UHVKHDUV''+RJJ(+*RQ]DOH]3)HQVKDP
5 =KDQJ = /LP -+ &DVWUR - 'HPLGRYD 1
$OODUG * 5XQQLQJ 6: $ JOREDO RYHUYLHZ
RIGURXJKWDQGKHDWLQGXFHGWUHHPRUWDOLW\UHYHDOV
HPHUJLQJ FOLPDWH FKDQJH ULVNV IRU IRUHVWV )RUHVW
(FRORJ\DQG0DQDJHPHQW
$PDWXOOL*3HUp]&DEHOOR)GHOD5LYD-0DSSLQJ
OLJKWQLQJKXPDQFDXVHGZLOG¿UHVRFFXUUHQFHXQGHU
LJQLWLRQ SRLQW ORFDWLRQ XQFHUWDLQW\ (FRORJLFDO
0RGHOOLQJ
$PDWXOOL * &DPLD $ 6DQ0LJXHO$\DQ] - (VWLPDWLQJ IXWXUH EXUQHG DUHDV XQGHU FKDQJLQJ
FOLPDWHLQWKH(80HGLWHUUDQHDQFRXQWULHV6FLHQFH
RIWKH7RWDO(QYLURQPHQW
$QGUHZV 3/ /RIWVJDDUGHQ '2 %UDGVKDZ /6 (YDOXDWLRQ RI ¿UH GDQJHU UDWLQJ LQGH[HV XVLQJ
ORJLVWLF UHJUHVVLRQ DQG SHUFHQWLOH DQDO\VLV
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI:LOGODQG)LUH
%DGLD3HUSLQ\j $ 3DOODUHV%DUEHUD 0 6SDWLDO
GLVWULEXWLRQRILJQLWLRQVLQ0HGLWHUUDQHDQSHULXUEDQ
DQGUXUDODUHDVWKHFDVHRI&DWDORQLD,QWHUQDWLRQDO
-RXUQDORI:LOGODQG)LUH
%DH]D0-9DOGHFDQWRV$$OOR]D-$9DOOHMR95
+XPDQ GLVWXUEDQFH DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO IDFWRUV DV
GULYHUVRIORQJWHUPSRVW¿UHUHJHQHUDWLRQSDWWHUQV
LQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ IRUHVWV -RXUQDO RI 9HJHWDWLRQ
6FLHQFH
%DH]D0- 6DQWDQD90 3DXVDV -*9DOOHMR95 6XFFHVVLRQDO WUHQGV LQ VWDQGLQJ GHDG ELRPDVV LQ
0HGLWHUUDQHDQEDVLQVSHFLHV-RXUQDORI9HJHWDWLRQ
6FLHQFH
%DUURV$0*3HUHLUD-0&:LOG¿UHVHOHFWLYLW\IRU
ODQG FRYHU W\SH GRHV VL]H PDWWHU" 3/R6 21( HGRLMRXUQDOSRQH
%HGLD - +HUUHUD 6 *XWLHUUH] -0 =DYDOD * 8UELHWD
,50RUHQR-06HQVLWLYLW\RI¿UHZHDWKHU
LQGH[WRGLIIHUHQWUHDQDO\VLVSURGXFWVLQWKH,EHULDQ
3HQLQVXOD 1DWXUDO +D]DUGV DQG (DUWK 6\VWHP
6FLHQFHV
%HGLD-+HUUHUD60DUWtQ'6.RXWVLDV1*XWLpUUH]-0
5REXVW SURMHFWLRQV RI )LUH :HDWKHU ,QGH[
LQWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQXVLQJVWDWLVWLFDOGRZQVFDOLQJ
&OLPDWLF&KDQJH
402
%HGLD-+HUUHUD6*XWLpUUH]-0D$VVHVVLQJWKH
SUHGLFWDELOLW\ RI ¿UH RFFXUUHQFH DQG DUHD EXUQHG
DFURVV SK\WRFOLPDWLF UHJLRQV LQ 6SDLQ 1DWXUDO
+D]DUGVDQG(DUWK6\VWHP6FLHQFHV
%HGLD - +HUUHUD 6 &DPLD $ 0RUHQR -0 *XWLpUUH]
-0 E )RUHVW )LUH 'DQJHU 3URMHFWLRQV LQ
WKH 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ XVLQJ (16(0%/(6 5HJLRQDO
&OLPDWH &KDQJH 6FHQDULRV &OLPDWLF &KDQJH
%HJXHUtD 6 $QJXOR0DUWtQH] 0 9LFHQWH6HUUDQR 60
/ySH]0RUHQR-,(O.HQDZ\$$VVHVVLQJ
WUHQGV LQ H[WUHPH SUHFLSLWDWLRQ HYHQWV LQWHQVLW\
DQG PDJQLWXGH XVLQJ QRQVWDWLRQDU\ SHDNVRYHU
WKUHVKROGDQDO\VLVDFDVHVWXG\LQQRUWKHDVW6SDLQ
IURP WR ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI
&OLPDWRORJ\
%URWRQV / $TXLOXp 1 GH &iFHUHV 0 )RUWLQ 0- )DOO
$ +RZ )LUH +LVWRU\ )LUH 6XSSUHVVLRQ
3UDFWLFHV DQG &OLPDWH &KDQJH $IIHFW :LOG¿UH
5HJLPHVLQ0HGLWHUUDQHDQ/DQGVFDSHV3/R621(
H
%UXQHW 0 -RQHV 3' 6LJUy - 6DODGLp 2 $JXLODU (
0REHUJ $ 'HOOD0DUWD 3 /LVWHU ' :DOWKHU $
/ySH]'7HPSRUDODQGVSDWLDOWHPSHUDWXUH
YDULDELOLW\ DQG FKDQJH RYHU 6SDLQ GXULQJ
-RXUQDO RI *HRSK\VLFDO 5HVHDUFK
$WPRVSKHUHV'
&DPLD$'XUUDQW7+6DQ0LJXHO$\DQ]-7KH
(XURSHDQ¿UHGDWDEDVHGHYHORSPHQWVWUXFWXUHDQG
LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO FRQIHUHQFH RQ
IRUHVW¿UHUHVHDUFK$
&DUUDFHGR9/LDxR&'*DUFtD&RGURQ-&5DVLOOD')
&OLPDHLQFHQGLRVIRUHVWDOHVHQ&DQWDEULD
HYROXFLyQ\WHQGHQFLDVUHFLHQWHV3LULQHRV
&KDV$PLO 0/ 7RX]D - *DUFtD0DUWtQH] ( )RUHVW ¿UHV LQ WKH ZLOGODQG±XUEDQ LQWHUIDFH $
VSDWLDODQDO\VLVRIIRUHVWIUDJPHQWDWLRQDQGKXPDQ
LPSDFWV$SSOLHG*HRJUDSK\
&KULVWHQVHQ -+ .DQLNLFKDUOD .. $OGULDQ ( $Q 6,
&DYDOFDQWL,)$GH&DVWUR0'RQJ:*RVZDPL3
+DOO$.DQ\DQJD-..LWRK$.RVVLQ-/DX1&
5HQZLFN-6WHSKHQVRQ';LH63=KRX7
&OLPDWH3KHQRPHQDDQGWKHLU5HOHYDQFHIRU)XWXUH
5HJLRQDO&OLPDWH&KDQJH&KDSWHU(Q6WRFNHU
7) 4LQ ' 3ODWWQHU *. 7LJQRU 0 $OOHQ 6.
%RVFKXQJ-1DXHOV$;LD<%H[90LGJOH\30
HGLWRUHV:RUNLQJJURXS,FRQWULEXWLRQWRWKH,3&&
¿IWK DVVHVVPHQW UHSRUW $5 &OLPDWH &KDQJH
7KH 3K\VLFDO 6FLHQFH %DVLV &DPEULGJH
8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV&DPEULGJHDQG1HZ<RUN
&ROOLQV0.QXWWL5$UEODVWHU-0'XIUHVQH-/)LFKHIHW
7)ULHGOLQJVWHLQ3*DR;*XWRZVNL-U:--RKQV
7.ULQQHU*6KRQJZH07HEDOGL&:HDYHU$-
:HKQHU 0 /RQJWHUP &OLPDWH &KDQJH
3URMHFWLRQV &RPPLWPHQWV DQG ,UUHYHUVLELOLW\
&KDSWHU (Q 6WRFNHU 7) 4LQ ' 3ODWWQHU *.
7LJQRU 0$OOHQ 6. %RVFKXQJ - 1DXHOV$ ;LD
< %H[ 9 0LGJOH\ 30 HGLWRUHV :RUNLQJ JURXS
,FRQWULEXWLRQWRWKH,3&&¿IWKDVVHVVPHQWUHSRUW
$5&OLPDWH&KDQJH7KH3K\VLFDO6FLHQFH
%DVLV&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV&DPEULGJHDQG
1HZ<RUN
'tD]'HOJDGR 5 /ORUHW ) 3RQV ; 6SDWLDO
SDWWHUQVRI¿UHRFFXUUHQFHLQ&DWDORQLD1(6SDLQ
/DQGVFDSH(FRORJ\
(VSHOWD -0 5HWDQD - +DEURXN $ 5HVSURXWLQJ
SDWWHUQVDIWHU¿UHDQGUHVSRQVHWRVWRROFOHDQLQJRI
WZRFRH[LVWLQJ0HGLWHUUDQHDQRDNVZLWKFRQWUDVWLQJ
OHDI KDELWV RQ WZR GLIIHUHQW VLWHV )RUHVW (FRORJ\
DQG0DQDJHPHQW
)HUQiQGH] - )LWD / *DUFtD'tH] 0 0RQWiYH] -3
-LPpQH]*XHUUHUR 3 'RPtQJXH] 0 5RPHUD 5
/ySH]GHOD)UDQFD16iQFKH](/LJXRUL*&DERV
:' *DHUWQHU 0$ (VFHQDULRV31$&&
5HVXOWDGRV GH UHJLRQDOL]DFLyQ GLQiPLFD
(Q &DPELR &OLPiWLFR ([WUHPRV H LPSDFWRV
3XEOLFDFLRQHV GH OD $VRFLDFLyQ (VSDxROD GH
&OLPDWRORJtD$(&6HULH$1~PHUR
)HUQiQGH]0RQWHV65RGULJR)66HXEHUW66RXVD30
6SULQJDQGVXPPHUH[WUHPHWHPSHUDWXUHVLQ
,EHULDGXULQJODVWFHQWXU\LQUHODWLRQWRFLUFXODWLRQ
W\SHV$WPRVSKHULF5HVHDUFK
)XHQWHV6DQWRV,0DUH\3pUH]0)*RQ]iOH]0DQWHLJD
: )RUHVW ¿UH VSDWLDO SDWWHUQ DQDO\VLV LQ
*DOLFLD 1: 6SDLQ -RXUQDO RI (QYLURQPHQWDO
0DQDJHPHQW
)XMLRND )0 *LOO$0 9LHJDV '; :RWWRQ %0 )LUH GDQJHU DQG ¿UH EHKDYLRU PRGHOLQJ V\VWHPV
LQ $XVWUDOLD (XURSH DQG 1RUWK $PHULFD (Q
%\WQHURZLF]$$UEDXJK05LHEDX$$QGHUVHQ&
HGLWRUHV'HYHORSPHQWVLQ(QYLURQPHQWDO6FLHQFH
(OVHYLHU%97KH1HWKHUODQGVSS
*LRUJL)/LRQHOOR3&OLPDWHFKDQJHSURMHFWLRQV
IRUWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQUHJLRQ*OREDODQG3ODQHWDU\
&KDQJH
*RQ]iOH]2ODEDUULD-0ROD<XGHJR%3XNNDOD73DODKL
08VLQJPXOWLVFDOHVSDWLDODQDO\VLVWRDVVHVV
¿UHLJQLWLRQGHQVLW\LQ&DWDORQLD6SDLQ$QQDOVRI
)RUHVW6FLHQFH
*XWLpUUH]-05LEDOD\JXD-/ODVDW&5RPHUR5$EDXUUHD
-5RGUtJXH]&DPLQR((VFHQDULRV31$&&
'HVFULSFLyQ \ DQiOLVLV GH ORV UHVXOWDGRV GH
UHJLRQDOL]DFLyQHVWDGtVWLFD(Q&DPELR&OLPiWLFR
([WUHPRV H LPSDFWRV 3XEOLFDFLRQHV GH OD
$VRFLDFLyQ(VSDxRODGH&OLPDWRORJtD$(&6HULH
$1~PHUR
-DFRE ' 3HWHUVHQ - (JJHUW % $OLDV $ &KULVWHQVHQ
2 %RXZHU / %UDXQ $ &ROHWWH $ 'pTXp 0
*HRUJLHYVNL * HW DO (852&25'(;
QHZKLJKUHVROXWLRQFOLPDWHFKDQJHSURMHFWLRQVIRU
(XURSHDQLPSDFWUHVHDUFK5HJLRQDO(QYLURQPHQWDO
&KDQJH
.RXWVLDV 1 $ULDQRXWVRX 0 .DOOLPDQLV $ 0DOOLQLV
* +DOOH\ - 'LPRSRXORV 3 :KHUH GLG WKH
¿UHVEXUQLQ3HORSRQQLVRV*UHHFHWKHVXPPHURI
"(YLGHQFHIRUDV\QHUJ\RIIXHODQGZHDWKHU
$JULFXOWXUDODQG)RUHVW0HWHRURORJ\
403
.UDZFKXN 0$ 0RULW] 0$ 3DULVLHQ 0$ 9DQ 'RUQ
- +D\KRH . *OREDO S\URJHRJUDSK\ WKH
FXUUHQW DQG IXWXUH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ZLOG¿UH 3/R6
21(H'RLMRXUQDOSRQH
.UDZFKXN 0$ 0RULW] 0$ &RQVWUDLQWV RQ
JOREDO¿UHDFWLYLW\YDU\DFURVVDUHVRXUFHJUDGLHQW
(FRORJ\
/RHSIH/0DUWLQH]9LODOWD-2OLYHUHV-3LxRO-/ORUHW
) )HHGEDFNV EHWZHHQ IXHO UHGXFWLRQ DQG
ODQGVFDSH KRPRJHQLVDWLRQ GHWHUPLQH ¿UH UHJLPHV
LQ WKUHH 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ DUHDV )RUHVW (FRORJ\ DQG
0DQDJHPHQW
/RHSIH / 5RGULJR $ /ORUHW ) 7ZR WKUHVKROGV
GHWHUPLQH FOLPDWLF FRQWURO RI IRUHVW ¿UH VL]H
LQ (XURSH DQG QRUWKHUQ $IULFD 5HJLRQDO
(QYLURQPHQWDO&KDQJH
0$*5$0$ /RV LQFHQGLRV IRUHVWDOHV HQ
(VSDxD 'HFHQLR 'LVSRQLEOH HQ
KWWSZZZPDJUDPDJREHVHVELRGLYHUVLGDG
HVWDGLVWLFDVLQFHQGLRVBIRUHVWDOHVBHVSD&%DB
ÒOWLPR
GHFHQLRBBBWFPSGI
DFFHVRGHMXOLRGH
0$*5$0$$QXDULRGHHVWDGtVWLFDIRUHVWDO
'LVSRQLEOH HQ KWWSZZZPDJUDPDJREHVHV
ELRGLYHUVLGDGHVWDGLVWLFDV$()BB¿QDOBWFP
SGI ÒOWLPRDFFHVRGHMXOLRGH
0DUDXQ ' 1RQVWDWLRQDULWLHV RI UHJLRQDO
FOLPDWH PRGHO ELDVHV LQ (XURSHDQ VHDVRQDO PHDQ
WHPSHUDWXUH DQG SUHFLSLWDWLRQ VXPV *HRSK\VLFDO
5HVHDUFK/HWWHUV/
0DUWtQH])HUQiQGH] - &KXYLHFR ( .RXWVLDV 1 0RGHOOLQJ ORQJWHUP ¿UH RFFXUUHQFH IDFWRUV LQ
6SDLQ E\ DFFRXQWLQJ IRU ORFDO YDULDWLRQV ZLWK
JHRJUDSKLFDOO\ ZHLJKWHG UHJUHVVLRQ 1DWXUDO
+D]DUGVDQG(DUWK6\VWHP6FLHQFHV
0HW]JHU 0- %XQFH 5*+ -RQJPDQ 5+* 0XHFKHU
&$ :DWNLQV -: $ FOLPDWLF VWUDWL¿FDWLRQ
RI WKH HQYLURQPHQW RI (XURSH *OREDO (FRORJ\ %LRJHRJUDSK\
0LOOiQ 00 (VWUHOD 0- %iGHQDV & 6\QRSWLF
DQDO\VLV RI PHWHRURORJLFDO SURFHVVHV UHOHYDQW WR
IRUHVW¿UHG\QDPLFVRQWKH6SDQLVK0HGLWHUUDQHDQ
FRDVW(Q0RUHQR-0HGLWRU/DUJH)RUHVW)LUHV
%DFNKX\V3XEOLVKHUV/HLGHQSS
0RUHQR-09i]TXH]$9pOH]55HFHQWKLVWRU\
RI IRUHVW ¿UHV LQ 6SDLQ (Q 0RUHQR -0 HGLWRU
/DUJH IRUHVW ¿UHV %DFNKX\V 3XEOLVKHUV /HLGHQ
7KH1HWKHUODQGVSS
0RUHQR 09 &KXYLHFR ( &KDUDFWHULVLQJ ¿UH
UHJLPHVLQ6SDLQIURP¿UHVWDWLVWLFV,QWHUQDWLRQDO
-RXUQDORI:LOGODQG)LUH
0RUHQR 09 &RQHGHUD 0 &KXYLHFR ( 3H]]DWWL *%
)LUH UHJLPH FKDQJHV DQG PDMRU GULYLQJ
IRUFHVLQ6SDLQIURPWR(QYLURQPHQWDO
6FLHQFH3ROLF\
0RVV 5+ (GPRQGV -$ +LEEDUG .$ 0DQQLQJ 05
5RVH 6. YDQ 9XXUHQ '3 &DUWHU 75 (PRUL 6
404
.DLQXPD 0 .UDP 7 0HHKO *$ 0LWFKHOO -)%
1DNLüHQRYLü 1 5LDKL . 6PLWK 6- 6WRXIIHU 5-
7KRPVRQ$0:H\DQW-3:LOEDQNV7-7KH
QH[W JHQHUDWLRQ RI VFHQDULRV IRU FOLPDWH FKDQJH
UHVHDUFKDQGDVVHVVPHQW1DWXUH
1DNLüHQRYLü 1 *UHHQKRXVH *DV (PLVVLRQV
6FHQDULRV 7HFKQRORJLFDO )RUHFDVWLQJ DQG 6RFLDO
&KDQJH
3DXVDV -* &KDQJHV LQ ¿UH DQG FOLPDWH LQ WKH
HDVWHUQ ,EHULDQ 3HQLQVXOD 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ %DVLQ
&OLPDWLF&KDQJH
3DXVDV -* %ODGp & 9DOGHFDQWRV $ 6HYD -3 )XHQWHV
'$OOR]D -$ 9LODJURVD$ %DXWLVWD 6 &RUWLQD -
9DOOHMR953LQHVDQGRDNVLQWKHUHVWRUDWLRQ
RI 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ ODQGVFDSHV RI 6SDLQ 1HZ
SHUVSHFWLYHV IRU DQ ROG SUDFWLFH ± D UHYLHZ 3ODQW
(FRORJ\
3DXVDV -* 3DXOD 6 )XHO VKDSHV WKH ¿UHFOLPDWH
UHODWLRQVKLS HYLGHQFH IURP 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ
HFRV\VWHPV *OREDO (FRORJ\ %LRJHRJUDSK\
3DXVDV-*5LEHLUR(7KHJOREDO¿UHSURGXFWLYLW\
UHODWLRQVKLS *OREDO (FRORJ\ %LRJHRJUDSK\
3HUHLUD 0* 7ULJR 50 GD &DPDUD && 3HUHLUD -0&
/HLWH606\QRSWLFSDWWHUQVDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
ODUJHVXPPHUIRUHVW¿UHVLQ3RUWXJDO$JULFXOWXUDO
DQG)RUHVW0HWHRURORJ\
3HUHLUD 0* &DODGR 7- 'D&DPDUD && &DOKHLURV 7
(IIHFWVRIUHJLRQDOFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQUXUDO
¿UHVLQ3RUWXJDO&OLPDWH5HVHDUFK
3pUH] )) %RVFROR 5 &OLPD HQ (VSDxD 3DVDGR
3UHVHQWH\)XWXUR,QIRUPHGHHYDOXDFLyQGHOFDPELR
FOLPiWLFR UHJLRQDO &OLYDU (VSDxD 'LVSRQLEOH HQ
KWWSZZZFOLYDUHV¿OHVLQIRUPHBFOLYDUB¿QDOSGI
ÒOWLPRDFFHVRGHMXOLRGH
3LxRO - 7HUUDGDV - /ORUHW ) &OLPDWH ZDUPLQJ
ZLOG¿UHKD]DUGDQGZLOG¿UHRFFXUUHQFHLQFRDVWDO
HDVWHUQ6SDLQ&OLPDWLF&KDQJH
5DVLOOD ') *DUFtD&RGURQ -& &DUUDFHGR 9 'LHJR
& &LUFXODWLRQ SDWWHUQV ZLOG¿UH ULVN DQG
ZLOG¿UH RFFXUUHQFH DW FRQWLQHQWDO 6SDLQ 3K\VLFV
DQG &KHPLVWU\ RI WKH (DUWK 3DUWV$%& 5HWDQD - (VSHOWD -0 +DEURXN $ 2UGRQH] -/ 6ROj
0RUDOHV ) 5HJHQHUDWLRQ SDWWHUQV RI WKUHH
0HGLWHUUDQHDQ SLQHV DQG IRUHVW FKDQJHV DIWHU D
ODUJH¿UHLQQRUWKHDVWHUQ6SDLQ(FRVFLHQFH
5RWKHUPHO5$PDWKHPDWLFDOPRGHOIRUSUHGLFWLQJ
¿UHVSUHDGLQZLOGODQGIXHOV5HVHDUFK3DSHU,17
86'$ )RUHVW 6HUYLFH ,QWHUPRXQWDLQ )RUHVW
DQG5DQJH([SHULPHQW6WDWLRQS
5RXQVHYHOO 0'$ 5HJLQVWHU ,$UD~MR 0% &DUWHU 75
'HQGRQFNHU1(ZHUW)+RXVH-,.DQNDDQSll6
/HHPDQV50HW]JHU0-6FKPLW&6PLWK37XFN
*$FRKHUHQWVHWRIIXWXUHODQGXVHFKDQJH
VFHQDULRV IRU (XURSH $JULFXOWXUH (FRV\VWHPV (QYLURQPHQW
6iQFKH]6DOJXHUR 5 1DYDUUR&HUULOR 50 6ZHWQDP
7:=DYDOD0$,VGURXJKWWKHPDLQGHFOLQH
IDFWRU DW WKH UHDU HGJH RI (XURSH" 7KH FDVH RI
VRXWKHUQ ,EHULDQ SLQH SODQWDWLRQV )RUHVW (FRORJ\
DQG0DQDJHPHQW
6DOYDGRU 5 /ORUHW ) 3RQV ; 3LxRO - 'RHV ¿UH
RFFXUUHQFHPRGLI\WKHSUREDELOLW\RIEHLQJEXUQHG
DJDLQ"$ QXOO K\SRWKHVLV WHVW IURP 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ
HFRV\VWHPV LQ 1( 6SDLQ (FRORJLFDO 0RGHOOLQJ
6DQ0LJXHO$\DQ]-5RGULJXHV06DQWRVGH2OLYHLUD6
.HPSHU& 0RUHLUD) 'XJX\ % &DPLD$ /DQGFRYHUFKDQJHDQG¿UHUHJLPHLQWKH(XURSHDQ
0HGLWHUUDQHDQUHJLRQ(Q0RUHLUD)HWDOHGLWRUHV
0DQDJLQJIRUHVWHFRV\VWHPV6SULQJHUSS
6DQ0LJXHO$\DQ] - 0RUHQR -0 &DPLD $ $QDO\VLVRIODUJH¿UHVLQ(XURSHDQ0HGLWHUUDQHDQ
ODQGVFDSHV /HVVRQV OHDUQHG DQG SHUVSHFWLYHV
)RUHVW(FRORJ\DQG0DQDJHPHQW
6LWFK6+XQWLQJIRUG&*HGQH\1/HY\3(/RPDV0
3LDR 6/ %HWWV 5 &LDLV 3 &R[ 3 )ULHGOLQJVWHLQ
3 -RQHV &' 3UHQWLFH ,& :RRGZDUG ), (YDOXDWLRQ RI WKH WHUUHVWULDO FDUERQ F\FOH IXWXUH
SODQW JHRJUDSK\ DQG FOLPDWHFDUERQ F\FOH
IHHGEDFNV XVLQJ ¿YH '\QDPLF *OREDO 9HJHWDWLRQ
0RGHOV '*90V *OREDO &KDQJH %LRORJ\ 6WRFNHU7 'DKH 4 3ODWWQHU *. :RUNLQJ JURXS
,FRQWULEXWLRQWRWKH,3&&¿IWKDVVHVVPHQWUHSRUW
$5&OLPDWH&KDQJH7KH3K\VLFDO6FLHQFH
%DVLV&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV&DPEULGJH
7DJXH & 6HDE\ / +RSH $ 0RGHOLQJ WKH HFR
K\GURORJLF UHVSRQVH RI D 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ W\SH
HFRV\VWHP WR WKH FRPELQHG LPSDFWV RI SURMHFWHG
FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG DOWHUHG ¿UH IUHTXHQFLHV
&OLPDWLF&KDQJH
7D\ORU.6WRXIIHU5-0HHKO*$$QRYHUYLHZRI
&0,3DQGWKHH[SHULPHQWGHVLJQ%XOOHWLQRIWKH
$PHULFDQ0HWHRURORJLFDO6RFLHW\±
7KDQRV &$ 'DVNDODNRX (1 5HSURGXFWLRQ LQ
3LQXV KDOHSHQVLV DQG 3 EUXWLD (Q 1H¶HPDQ *
7UDEDXG / HGLWRUHV (FRORJ\ %LRJHRJUDSK\ DQG
0DQDJHPHQW RI 3LQXV KDOHSHQVLV DQG 3 EUXWLD
)RUHVW (FRV\VWHPV LQ WKH 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ %DVLQ
%DFNKX\V3XEOLVKHUV/HLGHQSS
YDQGHU/LQGHQ30LWFKHOO-(16(0%/(6FOLPDWH
FKDQJH DQG LWV LPSDFWV VXPPDU\ RI UHVHDUFK DQG
UHVXOWV IURP WKH (16(0%/(6 SURMHFW 7HFKQLFDO
UHSRUW0HW2I¿FH+DGOH\&HQWUH([HWHU8.
YDQ :DJQHU &( 'HYHORSPHQW DQG VWUXFWXUH RI
WKH &DQDGLDQ )RUHVW )LUH :HDWKHU ,QGH[ V\VWHP
&DQDGLDQ )RUHVWU\ 6HUYLFH )RUHVWU\ 7HFKQLFDO
5HSRUW2WWDZD
9i]TXH] $ 0RUHQR -0 6HQVLWLYLW\ RI ¿UH
RFFXUUHQFH WR PHWHRURORJLFDO YDULDEOHV LQ
0HGLWHUUDQHDQ DQG $WODQWLF DUHDV RI 6SDLQ
/DQGVFDSHDQG8UEDQ3ODQQLQJ±
9i]TXH]$0RUHQR-03DWWHUQVRI¿UHRFFXUUHQFH
DFURVV D FOLPDWLF JUDGLHQW DQG LWV UHODWLRQVKLSV
WR PHWHURORJLFDO YDULDEOHV LQ 6SDLQ (Q 0RUHQR
-0 2HFKHO :& HGLWRUHV *OREDO FKDQJH DQG
0HGLWHUUDQHDQW\SH HFRV\VWHPV 6SULQJHU9HUODJ
1HZ<RUNSS
9i]TXH]$ 0RUHQR -0 3DWWHUQV RI /LJKWQLQJ
DQG 3HRSOH&DXVHG )LUHV LQ 3HQLQVXODU 6SDLQ
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI:LOGODQG)LUH
9i]TXH] $ 0RUHQR -0 6SDWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI
IRUHVW ¿UHV LQ 6LHUUD GH *UHGRV &HQWUDO 6SDLQ
)RUHVW(FRORJ\DQG0DQDJHPHQW±
9HUG~ ) 6DODV - 9HJD*DUFtD & $ PXOWLYDULDWH
DQDO\VLV RI ELRSK\VLFDO IDFWRUV DQG IRUHVW ¿UHV
LQ 6SDLQ ± ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI
:LOGODQG)LUH
9LHGPD 2 0RUHQR -0 5LHLUR , ,QWHUDFWLRQV
EHWZHHQ ODQG XVHODQG FRYHU FKDQJH IRUHVW ¿UHV
DQGODQGVFDSHVWUXFWXUHLQ6LHUUDGH*UHGRV&HQWUDO
6SDLQ(QYLURQPHQWDO&RQVHUYDWLRQ
9LHGPD 2 $QJHOHU '* 0RUHQR -0 /DQGVFDSH VWUXFWXUDO IHDWXUHV FRQWURO ¿UH VL]H LQ
D 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ IRUHVWHG DUHD RI FHQWUDO 6SDLQ
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI:LOGODQG)LUH
;\VWUDNLV).DOOLPDQLV$6'LPRSRXORV3+DOOH\-0
.RXWVLDV 1 3UHFLSLWDWLRQ GRPLQDWHV ¿UH
RFFXUUHQFH LQ *UHHFH ± LWV GXDO UROH
LQIXHOEXLOGXSDQGGU\QHVV1DWXUDO+D]DUGVDQG
(DUWK6\VWHP6FLHQFHV
7ULJR 50 3HUHLUD -0& 3HUHLUD 0* 0RWD % &DODGR
7-'D&DPDUD&&6DQWR)($WPRVSKHULF
FRQGLWLRQV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQDO ¿UH
VHDVRQ RI LQ 3RUWXJDO,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO
RI&OLPDWRORJ\
7XUFR0/ODVDW0+DUGHQEHUJ-3URYHQ]DOH$
,PSDFWRIFOLPDWHYDULDELOLW\RQVXPPHU¿UHVLQD
0HGLWHUUDQHDQ HQYLURQPHQW QRUWKHDVWHUQ ,EHULDQ
3HQLQVXOD&OLPDWLF&KDQJH
9DOOHMR95$OOR]D-$7KHUHVWRUDWLRQRIEXUQHG
ODQGV7KHFDVHRIHDVWHUQ6SDLQ(Q0RUHQR-0
HGLWRU /DUJH )RUHVW )LUHV %DFNKX\V 3XEOLVKHUV
/HLGHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGVSS
405
Descargar