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Free Trade Area of the Americas
An Impact Assessment for Colombia
Miles K. Light
[email protected]
Thomas F. Rutherford∗
[email protected]
April 14, 2003
Abstract
This paper describes how entrance into the Free Trade of Americas Agreement may impact
the Colombia’s economy and public welfare. Our central tool for this analysis is a global
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of trade and production. We focus primarily
upon the economic interaction between Colombia and key trading partners. These partners
are: USA, European Union, and other Andean Pact countries. We find that Colombia does
not stand to gain substantially from an FTAA-style agreement. Since Colombia already enjoys
preferential access to key trading partners, the benefits from increased access to foreign markets
is positive, but small.
∗ The authors would like to thank Gustavo Hernndez, Juan Pablo Herrera andÖmer Ozak from National Department of Planning for a number of helpful comments. This is a working paper for discussion, the views expressed in
this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Department of Planning.
Contents
1 Introduction
3
2 The GTAP Datasets
4
2.1
Elasticities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4
2.2
Distortions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
2.3
Existing Trade Agreements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7
3 The Global Trade Model
7
3.1
General Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7
3.2
Formal Specification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9
3.2.1
GTAP in Mathiesen’s Equilibrium Format . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9
3.2.2
Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10
3.2.3
Public and Private Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11
3.2.4
Bilateral Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12
3.2.5
Income and Expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13
3.2.6
Market Clearance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14
3.2.7
Zero Profit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15
4 Policy Results
16
4.1
Trade Volumes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17
4.2
Other Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18
4.3
Factor Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18
4.4
Relative Prices and Competitiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19
4.5
Agriculture for Colombia in the FTAA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21
4.6
The Role of the ATPA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21
5 Conclusions
22
A Regions and Sectoral Aggregation
27
B Descriptive Statistics for Colombia
29
B.1 Production and Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
29
B.2 Tariff Rates and Revenues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
29
2
1
Introduction
In the early nineties Colombia modified its tariff structure in a process called ”Apertura Econmica”.
Tariffs were reduced from an average rate of 43.0% in 1989 to 11.7% in 1992. Colombia also
subscribed to some commercial agreements with the Andean Pact, Mexico and Chile. Non-tariff
barriers were also lowered in some situations, like licensing for some importers. The agricultural
sector remains the only sector still highly protected through band prices. The aim of this reform
was to promote Colombian competitiveness and diversify Colombian exports.
Non-traditional exports have consequently increased between 1992 and 2002, especially chemicals and machinery, which has encouraged industrial growth between 2000 and 2002. Colombian
participation into the Andean market has also grown from 10.8% in 1991 to 19.5% 2002. Much
of the remaining exports go to the USA as a principal comercial partner. This market represents
43.3% of Colombian exports.
Various internal and external shocks have made it difficult to evaluate the net effect of the
1991 trade reforms. Changes to the US and Venezuelan economies, exchange-rate changes, and
the preciptious decline in coffee prices give a common perception that trade liberalization is not
welfare-improving. Further difficulties occured because domestic institutions (public and private),
were not prepared for such dramatic commercial liberalization.
Despite these difficulties, most Colombians recognize that FTAA accession could be an important source of growth for Colombia and also an important opportunity to diversify its exports
to other markets in Latin America. Because there are numerous possible agreement types, both
bilater and multilateral is important to evaluate several different alternatives during the FTAA
negotiations. To do this, we use a model multi-regional computable general equilibrium model to
evaluate the effects of entry into the FTAA.
We use the GTAP dataset 1 . The GTAP version 5 (GTAP5) database represents global production and trade for 65 country/regions, 56 commodities and 5 primary factors. The data characterize
intermediate demand and bilateral trade in 1997, including tax rates on imports and exports.
This paper consists of three sections following the introduction. Section 2 describes the GTAP
dataset. This section provides information about the data organization of the GTAPinGAMS
dataset. Section 3 presents the illustrative static models. It starts with a description of the
GTAPinGAMS model using Mathiesen’s format for the Arrow-Debreu model. This section provides
notation and equations describing technology, preferences and equilibrium conditions. It also
describes how the GTAPinGAMS model can be expressed in GAMS, either as an MPSGE model
1 The
Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) is a research program initiated in 1992 to provide the economic
research community with a global economic dataset for use in the quantitative analyses of international economic
issues. The Project’s objectives include the provision of a documented, publicly available, global, general equilibrium
data base, and to conduct seminars on a regular basis to inform the research community about how to use the data
in applied economic analysis. A list of applications based on the GTAP framework can be found at the GTAP home
page: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/gtap/.) For more details see Hertel [1997], McDougall [1998].
3
or as a system of algebraic equations. This material provides a short but complete overview of how
the technology and preferences are calibrated along with GAMS code which performs this task. In
section 4 we shows the results for different kind of simulations to examine the impact of FTAA on
Colombia. Finally, we write some final remarks.
2
The GTAP Datasets
Domestic and international production and trade comes from the GTAP5 database. The Global
Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), based at Purdue University in Indiana produces the best data
for international trade analysis. Their database is a compilation of social accounts from separate
countries as well as tabulated international trade flows from the United Nations. All of the data
is combined and cleaned to provide a consistent measurement of production and trade worldwide.
Except where we indicate otherwise, we use the GTAP5 database that is current as of November
2001. The 16 region version of the model retains all regions of the GTAP5 database that are
directly relevant to our policy simulations. The full GTAP database contains 57 sectors, but we
have aggregated to 29 sectors while retaining the sectors most important to Colombian trade policy.
All GTAP datasets are defined in terms of three primary sets: r -the set of countries and
regions, i -the set of sectors and produced commodities, and f -the set of primary factors.
The GTAP data describe economic transactions in 1997. All parameters in GTAP are expressed
in terms of values (i.e. price times quantity). Units of account in GTAP5, in its original GEMPACK
representation, are millions of 1997$. But in our model the units are different by a factor of 10,000,
then we measures transactions in tens of billions of 1997$2 . Figure 1 presents the general GTAP
database flows, which are explicitly represented in the dataset.
Because the GTAP dataset must combine several disparate reports, some concessions and data
manipulation are inevitable. To ensure that we have a good handshake with the 1997 Colombian
national accounts (GTAP5 is based upon 1997 accounts), we produce several tables of production and trade for Colombia in Appendix B. In general, we find that after correcting the trade
levies between Andean Pact countries, the data seem reasonably close to the 1997 social accounts
produced by the Macroeconomics Division of the Colombian Ministry of Finance. Table 1 below
compares broad economic indicators3 .
2.1
Elasticities
We generally assume that the lower-level elasticity of substitution between imports from different
regions is σM M = 8, and that the higher-level elasticity between aggregate imports and domestic
2 Scaling
3 The
units in this way assures better numerical precision in equilibrium calculations.
GATP5 dataset for Colombia was built with preliminar national accounts while the social accounts from
Ministry of Finance was constructed to the final national accounts
4
Figure 1: GTAP flows explicitly represented in the dataset
Domestic Economy
ty
Production
tx
ti
66
vaf
m
³
³³ tm
³
³
³³
³vipm
³
³
tf
6
vdpm
³³
³³
)
?³
tp
vf m
Private
Household
Int.Trade
vxmd
vtwr
vst
-
Other
Region
vdgm ??
vigm
tg
Government
production is σDM = 4. We refer to these values as our central elasticities. There are econometric
studies, such as those of Reinert and Roland-Holst [1992], Shiells and Reinert [1993], and Hernndez
[1998], that suggest values which are lower than these. However, Reidel [1988] and Athukorala and
Reidel [1994] argue that when the model is properly specified the demand elasticities are not
statistically different from infinity, and their point estimates are close to the central elasticity
values we have chosen.
To be clear, a value of σM M = 8 means that if Colombia tried to raise its prices by 1% on world
markets relative to an average of aggregate imports, Colombian imports would decline relative
to aggregate imports by 8%. Given that there may be some economists who would prefer lower
elasticity estimates, we also perform most of the important policy simulations with σM M = 4
and σDM = 2. We refer to these as our low elasticities. In our view, a high elasticity scenario,
for an economy such as Colombia with little market power on world markets in most products,
would be a specification with still less market power for exports, such as would occur with in the
popular theoretical models of international trade where goods are homogeneous. The elasticity
of transformation between exports and domestic production is assumed to be η = 2 for each
sector. Elasticities of substitution between primary factors of production is unity. We assume
fixed coefficients between all intermediates and value added.
5
Table 1: Economic Data for Colombia from Two 1997 Datasets
Economic Data Comparison:
GTAP5
SAM97
213,627
198,971
Exports:
21,178
16,804
Imports:
22,695
23,812
1,424
1,392
Domestic Output:
Import Tariff Revenues:
Output Tax Revenues:
2,333
2,378
Total Tax Revenues:
8,500
9,788
*Notes: 1) GTAP results are reported after re-computing the benchmark tariff rates for MERCOSUR and the
Andean Pact. 2) Tax revenues are taxes on output only (i.e., doesn’t include the corporate tax, which is some 5, 600
pesos.
2.2
Distortions
All distortions are represented as ad-valorem price-wedges. Border protection estimates combine
tariff protection and the tariff equivalents of non-tariff barriers.
Outside of some trading agreements, as the Andean Pact, or tariffs preferences, such ATPA4 ,
we find that GTAP tariff levels reasonably reflect the average Colombian tariff rates for most
GTAP product categories. In services, however, the GTAP dataset contains both some subsidies
to imports in some services sectors and significant tariffs on other services imports. We judge
neither to be reasonable, and impose zero tariffs on services in our tariff database for Brazil (and
for other countries as well). In addition, contrary to the GTAP database, we impose zero tariffs
on imports within the Andean Pact. After these corrections, the implied collected tariff in the
corrected GTAP database is 9.2%, which is slightly larger than the actual collected tariff average
in Colombia of about 8% for those sectors with import tariffs.5
We employ the GTAP tariff rates for countries outside of Colombia as well. These tariff rates
are trade weighted average tariffs, and consequently typically differ according to trading partner.
That is, since there are thousands of tariff lines in the tariff schedules of most countries, literally
hundreds of tariff lines must be mapped into a single sector in the GTAP database. Since the
product mix of imports differs across countries, the trade weighted average tariff rate will differ
according to the country of origin.
Other distortions include factor taxes in production, value-added taxes, export subsidies (especially on agricultural exports from the EU, but to a limited extent elsewhere), and export taxes
on textiles and apparel.
4 ATPA
stands for “Andean Trade Preference Act,” an agreement by the US to lower trade barriers to Andean
countries (Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Colombia), in order to diversify the export base away from narco-trafficing.
5 Colombian tariffs are computed from the 1997 Colombian Social Accounts.
6
2.3
Existing Trade Agreements
Several trade agreements were signed since 1997 which are not reflected in the data. In order to
begin the modeling with a benchmark consistent with the most recent tax and tariff structure,
we impose newer trade structures onto the data and re-compute the benchmark. For example,
Brazilian accession to the MERCOSUR trading pact implies zero tariffs for partner countries.
We set these particular import tariffs to zero then re-solve the model. This constitutes the new
benchmark dataset.
Table 2: Regional Trading Agreements in the Western Hemisphere since 1997
Agreement
Description
NAFTA
North American Free Trade Agreement. Free access to most products between Canada, USA, and Mexico.
MERCOSUR
Free Trade Zone for Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay.
Multi-fiber Agreement
Special Tariff structure for textiles.
Andean Pact
Free Trade Zone for Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia.
ATPA
Andean Trade Preference Act. Zero import tariffs for most goods
exported from Andean countries to the United States.
For Colombia, we impose a free-trading zone for the Andean Pact countries in addition to
including other agreements outside of the region (e.g., NAFTA). Table 2 describes various agreements imposed on the GTAP dataset. The resulting import tariff structure for Colombia and its
trading-partners is listed in Tables 16 and 17. The basic procedure behind the FTAA-Colombia
accounting is described in the Figure 2.
3
The Global Trade Model
3.1
General Features
The quantitative model developed to evaluate the trade policy options facing Colombia is multiregional and multi-sectoral. Table 12 lists the 16 regions included explicitly in the model, as well as
Table 14 lists the 29 sectors included in each region. The model is quite detailed in the Americas:
with 13 distinct countries or regions. Outside of the Americas, we have the European Union 15,
Japan and Rest of the World. The general specification of this model follows earlier studies of trade
agreements in South America, such as the model of trade policy options for Chile and Brazil6 .
6 See
Harrison, Rutherford and Tarr [2001].
7
Figure 2: Approach to Include Recent Trade Agreements
1997 GTAP Data
|
|
GTAPinGAMS Model
|
| ------- NAFTA, MFA, Mercasur
|
FTAA Model
|
|
FTAA Scenario Analysis
|
Results
We adopt a multi-region model, rather than a small open economy model, since we need to
consider the possible effects on Colombia of a reduction in Colombia’s import tariffs for Andean
Pact countries as well as Colombia. We also need to account for the “market access” effects on
Colombian exports of a reduction of import tariffs by NAFTA regions with which Colombia agrees
to a free trade agreement. Although the general theory of the welfare effects of preferential trading
arrangements does allow for the impact of changes in partner country tariffs on the home countrys
terms-of-trade,7 some empirical approaches to evaluating preferential trading arrangements ignore
them.8 The GTAPinGAMS framework allows us to explicitly evaluate the importance to Colombia
of improved market access to regions such as the EU and the Americas, as well as losses Colombia
may suffer as partner countries raise export prices to Colombia.
In addition to MERCOSUR and the Andean Pact, we assume that NAFTA operates as an
effective free trade area with zero tariffs among the U.S. Canada and Mexico, but each of the three
countries has its own external tariff. Although there are many other regional preferential trading
arrangements in the Americas that are implemented at different levels of effectiveness, the GTAP
dataset does not incorporate these preferential tariff rates. Further notes on the tariff rates in the
GTAP5 dataset are presented in Appendix B, along with relevant statistics.
7 See
8 An
Wooton [1986] and Harrison, Rutherford
example is the approach adopted by Bond [1996]. He develops a simple general equilibrium specification
of the effects on Chile of these preferential trading arrangements with an impressive level of detail with respect to
tariff data. His results for Chile joining NAFTA, however differ significantly from Harrison et.al.[2002] because his
CGE model does not incorporate the impact on Chile of access to NAFTA markets.
8
3.2
Formal Specification
The general specification of the model follows earlier work on the Uruguay Round and on Chile.
We concentrate here on the “base” model, which is static and assumes constant returns to scale
(CRTS).
Briefly, production entails the use of intermediate inputs and primary factors (Labor, Capital
and Land). Primary factors are mobile across sectors within a region, but are internationally
immobile. We assume Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production functions for value
added, and Leontief production functions for intermediates and the value added composite. Output
is differentiated between domestic output and exports, but exports are not differentiated by country
of destination. Each region has a single representative consumer who maximizes utility, as well
as a single government agent. Demand is characterized by a nested CES utility function for the
representative agent, which allows for multi-stage budgeting. Demand at the top level, for the
composite Armington aggregate of each of the 29 goods in Table 12, is Cobb-Douglas. Consumers
first choose how much of each Armington aggregate good to consume, such as wheat, subject to
aggregate income and composite prices of the aggregate goods. The Armington aggregate good is
in turn a CES composite of domestic production and aggregate imports. Consumers decide how
much to spend on aggregate imports and the domestic good subject to the prior decision of how
much income will be spent on this sector, and preferences for aggregate imports and domestic goods
are represented by a CES utility function. Finally, consumers decide how to allocate expenditures
across imports from the 15 other regions based on their CES utility function for imports from
different regions and income allocated to consumption on imports from the previous higher level
decision.
3.2.1
GTAP in Mathiesen’s Equilibrium Format
An Arrow-Debreu model concerns the interaction of consumers and producers in markets. Lars
Mathiesen [1985] proposed a representation of this class of models in which two types of equations
define an equilibrium: zero profit and market clearance. The corresponding variables defining an
equilibrium are activity levels (for constant-returns-to-scale firms) and commodity prices.9
Commodity markets merge primary endowments of households with producer outputs. In
equilibrium the aggregate supply of each good must be at least as great as total intermediate and
final demand. Initial endowments are exogenous. Producer supplies and demands are defined by
producer activity levels and relative prices. Final demands are determined by market prices.
Economists who have worked with conventional textbook equilibrium models can find Math9 Under
a maintained assumption of perfect competition, Mathiesen may characterize technology as CRTS without
loss of generality. Decreasing returns are accommodated through introduction of a specific factor, while increasing
returns are inconsistent with the assumption of perfect competition. In this environment zero excess profit is
consistent with free entry for atomistic firms producing an identical product.
9
iesen’s framework to be somewhat opaque because many quantity variables are not explicitly specified in the model. Variables such as final demand by consumers, factor demands by producers and
commodity supplies by producers, are defined implicitly in Mathiesen’s model. For example, given
equilibrium prices for primary factors, consumer incomes can be computed, and given income and
goods prices, consumers’ demands can then be determined. The consumer demand functions are
written down in order to define an equilibrium, but quantities demanded need not appear in the
model as separate variables. The same is true of inputs or outputs from the production process:
relative prices determine conditional demand, and conditional demand times the activity level
represents market demand. Omitting decisions variables and suppressing definitional equations
corresponding to intermediate and final demand provides significant computational advantages at
the cost of a somewhat more complex model statement.
The core model described here is a static, multi-regional model which tracks the production
and distribution of goods in the global economy. In GTAP the world is divided into regions,
and each region’s final demand structure is portrayed by a representative agent who allocates
expenditure across goods so as to maximize welfare, with fixed levels of investment and public
output. Production incorporates intermediate inputs, and primary factors include skilled and
unskilled labor, land, resources and physical capital. The dataset includes a full set of bilateral
trade flows with associated transport costs, export taxes and tariffs.
In the following section, before writing down the equilibrium conditions per se, production
technology and producer choices are described. Then the structure of private and public final
demand are outlined. Finally, the zero profit and market clearance equations are written down.
3.2.2
Production
In the model there are two types of produced commodities, goods produced for domestic markets
and goods produced for export. In the base these goods are assumed to be imperfect substitutes
produced as joint products with a constant elasticity of transformation. Specifically, if Dir is
domestic output and Xir is exports, then
h
i1/(1+1/η)
1+1/η
1+1/η
Y
Y
Yir = αir
Dir
+ βir
Xir
where Yir is the activity level for good i in region r. Producers are competitive, implying that
given a value of Yir , supplies to the domestic and export markets are given by:10
D X
Dir = Yir aD
ir (pir , pir )
and
10 For
the sake of brevity, I present functional forms explicitly but represent unit demand and supply functions in
D X
reduced form, e.g. aD
ir (pir , pir ).
10
D X
Xir = Yir aX
ir (pir , pir ).
Inputs to production include primary factors and intermediate inputs. Intermediate demands
are proportional to the level of activity, so the total intermediate demand for good i in region r is:
IDir =
X
Yjr aijr .
j
In the core model we assume that all intermediate input coefficients (aijr ) are fixed, unresponsive to price.11
Following Armington [1969] intermediate demand is represented as a composite of imported
and domestic goods as imperfect substitutes. Thus, we have:
£ I
ρ
ρ ¤1/ρ
I
IDir = αir
DIir
+ βir
M Iir
in which IDir is domestic intermediate and M Iir is imported intermediate demand.
A Cobb-Douglas production function relates activity level and factor inputs. Producers minimize unit cost given factor prices and applicable taxes. The factor demands solve:
min
X
F
pF
f r (1 + tf ir )F Df ir
s.t. ψir
Y
θ
F Dffirir = Yir
f
f
taking Yir as given. Linear homogeneity of the production function implies that factor demands,
F Df ir , may be expressed as the product of an activity level and compensated demand function
F
depending on factor prices (pF
f r ) and factor taxes (tf ir ):
F F
F Df ir = Yir aF
f ir (pr , tir )
3.2.3
Public and Private Demand
Public sector output, Gr , is assumed to represent a Cobb-Douglas aggregation of market commodities:
Gr = Γr
Y
θG
GDirir
i
11 There
is no reason that this functional form should be employed in every study. For example, when we use the
GTAP dataset to study energy and environmental issues, it is important to account for the nature of substitution
possibilities among energy carriers as well as between energy and non-energy inputs to production; so in those
applications a nested CES function is employed in which energy trades off against value-added with a non-zero
elasticity of substitution.
11
As is the case for intermediate demand, GDir , an Armington aggregation of domestic (DGir )
and imported inputs (M Gir ) defines public sector demand:
£ G
¤1/ρ
G
GDir = αir
DGρir + βir
M Gρir
Public sector output is exogenous, however the composition of public sector inputs responds to
relative prices, gross of applicable tax, hence:
D M G
GDir = Gr aG
ir (pir , pir , tir )
A representative agent determines final demand in each region. These consumers are endowed
with primary factors, tax revenue, and an exogenously-specified net transfer from other regions.
This income is allocated to investment, public demand and private demand. Investment and public
output are exogenous while private demand is determined by utility maximizing behavior. The
utility function is Cobb-Douglas:
Ur =
X
C
θir
log(CDir )
i
As in the case of intermediate and public demand, an Armington aggregation of domestic and
imported inputs defines each commodity, so
£ C
ρ
ρ ¤1/ρ
C
CDir = αir
DCir
+ βir
M Cir
Aggregate final demand (CDir ) is then defined by regional expenditure and the unit price of
C
aggregate of domestic and imported goods (pC
ir ), gross of applicable tax (tir ):
CDir =
C
θir
Mr
C
pir (1 + tC
ir )
Regional expenditure (Mr ) includes factor income, net capital flows and tax revenue, net of the
cost of investment and public expenditure.
3.2.4
Bilateral Trade
There are three types of imports in the model: imports to intermediate demand (M Iir ), imports
to public sector demand (M Gir ) and imports to final consumer demand (M Cir ). The maintained
assumption is that while the aggregate import share may differ between these three functions,
each of these shares have the same regional composition within the import aggregate. A CES
aggregation across imports from different regions s forms the total import composite:
12
"
M Iir + M Gir + M Cir =
X
#1/ρ
ρ
M
αisr
Misr
s
Two tax margins and a transportation cost apply on bilateral trade in the model. Real transport
costs, Tirs , are proportional to trade:
Tirs = τirs Mirs
and these inputs are defined by a Cobb-Douglas aggregate of international transport inputs supplied
by different countries:
X
Tirs = ψT
irs
Y
θT
T Dirir
i,r
It is helpful to think of international transportation margins as transportation services which
are provided by perfectly competitive producers from different regions with an Armginton aggregation across services from different countries and an elasticity of substitution equal to unity. The
technology providing transportation services exhibits constant returns to scale, so we can specify
a price pT representing the unit cost of transportation on all commodity trade flows.12
Bilateral trade flows are determined by cost-minimizing choice, given the f ob export price from
X
M 13
region r, pX
We then may write the
ir , the export tax rate, tir , and the import tariff rate, tir .
demand for bilateral imports as:
X
T M
X
Mirs = Mis aM
irs (pir 0 , tir 0 s , p , tir 0 s )
3.2.5
Income and Expenditure
Consumer expenditure for a representative agent are the sum of factor earnings and tax revenue,
net the cost of investment, public sector output and net capital outflows:
12 There
are some simplifications here. For example, the regional composition of transportation services is identical
across all bilateral trade flows. Furthermore, while the dataset incorporates explicit trade and transport margins
on international trade flows, wholesale and retail margins on domestic sales are ignored in the dataset, so there is
some asymmetry in the database’s price level.
13 The model formulation assumes that the export tax applies on the f ob price (net of transport margins), while
the import tariff applies on the cif price, gross of export tax and transport margin.
13
Mr =
P
F
f pf r Ff r
P Y D
+ i tir (pir Dir + pX
ir Xir )
P ID ID
+ ij tijr pir Yjr aijr
P
F
+ f i tF
f ir pf r F Df ir
P G GD
+ i tir pir GDir
P
CD
+ i tC
ir pir CDir
P X X
+ is tirs pir Mirs
P
T
X
X
+ is tM
isr (pis Misr (1 + tisr ) + p Tisr )
P D
− i pir Iir
P
G
− i pG
ir (1 + tir ) GDir
−pC
n Br
! factor income
! indirect taxes
! taxes on intermediate goods
! factor tax revenue
! public tax revenue
! consumption tax revenue
! export tax revenue
! tariff revenue
! investment demand
! public sector demand
! current account balance
Capital flows in the base year are represented by Br in this expression, and in a counterfactual
equilibrium these are held fixed and denominated in terms of the numeraire price index, the
consumer price level in region n (USA).
3.2.6
Market Clearance
Having defined technology, preferences and compensated demand functions, we now may turn to
the market clearance conditions.
• Domestic Output
Domestic output equals demand for intermediate inputs to production, public sector use,
final consumer demand plus domestic investment:14
Dir
= DIir
=
IDir aD,I
ir
+DGir
+DCir
+Iir
+GDir aD,G
ir
+CDir aD,C
ir
+Iir
D,G
D,C
in which aD,I
represent the compensated demands for domestic inputs by
ir , air , and air
M
submarket, each of which are functions of pD
ir and pir .
• Imports
Aggregate supply of imports, defined by the Armington aggregation across imports from
different regions must equal aggregate import demand for intermediate, public and private
consumption:
Mir
= M Iir
=
14 Within
IDir aM,I
ir
+M Gir
+M Cir
+GDir aM,G
ir
+CDir aM,C
ir
the dataset investment inputs flow to the cgd sector, and demand for cgd sectoral output appears as
the sole non-zero in the Iir vector for each region r.
14
M,G
in which aM,I
, and aM,C
represent compensated demands for imported inputs by
ir , air
ir
M
submarket, each functions of pD
ir and pir .
• Exports
Export supplies equals import demand across all trading partners plus demands for international transport:15
Xir
=
=
P
P
s
Mirs
+T Dir
M
s Mis airs
+T aTir
In the second equation aM
irs represents the unit demand for region r output per unit of region
s aggregate imports.
• Armington Aggregate Supply
The model includes supply-demand conditions for the Armington composite goods entering
intermediate demand, public and private demand, as has already been specified above in the
equations defining IDir , GDir and CDir .
• Primary Factors
Primary factor (labor, capital, land, resource) endowment equals primary factor demand:
Ff r =
X
Yir aF
f ir
i
3.2.7
Zero Profit
• Production
Competitive producers operating constant-returns technology earn zero profit in equilibrium.
For the GTAP producer, the value of output to the firm equals the value of sales in the
domestic and export markets net of applicable indirect taxes. Costs of production include
factor inputs (taxed at rate tF ) and intermediate inputs (taxed at rate tID ):
D
X X
Y
(pD
ir air + pir air )(1 − tir ) =
X
F
F
aF
f ir pf r (1 + tf ir ) +
ID
ajir pID
jr (1 + tjir )
j
f
15 When
X
the elasticity of transformation between goods produced for the domestic and export markets is infinite,
the market clearance conditions for Dir and Xir are merged, i.e.
X
Mirs + T Dir .
Yir = DIir + DGir + DCir + Iir +
s
X
Y
and prices pD
ir and pir are replaced throughout the model by a single price index, pir .
15
• Imports
Zero profit conditions apply to trade activities as well as production. In equilibrium, the
value of imports at the domestic cif price therefore equals the f ob price gross of export tax,
the transportation margin and the applicable tariff:
pM
ir =
X
£ X
¤
X
T
aM
(1 + tM
irs pis (1 + tisr ) + τirs p
isr )
s
• Intermediate, Public and Private Demand
Armington aggregation functions transform domestic and imported goods into composite
goods for intermediate demand, public sector demand and private demand. Zero profit for
these activities provide the following equilibrium identities:
M
I
I
pIir = c(pD
ir , pir , αir , βir )
D M
G
G
pG
ir = c(pir , pir , αir , βir )
C
C
D M
pC
ir = c(pir , pir , αir , βir )
in which
c(pD , pM , α, β) ≡ minD,M pD D + pM M s.t.
¡
¢1/1−σ
= ασ p1−σ
+ β σ p1−σ
D
M
1/ρ
(αDρ + βM ρ )
=1
is the unit cost function defined by the constant-elasticity-of-substitution aggregate of domestic and imported inputs.
4
Policy Results
In the base scenario (FTAA), we consider full access to all markets in North and South America. In
this scenario, all import tariffs and export taxes are completely eliminated. The central results are
discussed, followed by results from some other plausible scenarios. We also conduct a sensitivity
analysis to identify a range for potential impacts.
Colombia does not realize substantial gains from the FTAA because the existing tariffs facing
Colombia are already low. Because of this, the economic impact of the FTAA is similar to unilateral tariff reductions. In the base scenario, welfare increases by 0.26%, imports increase by 24%
and exports rise 7.5%. The government stands to lose approximately $800 million USD in tariff
revenues, most of which (about $500 million) comes from US imports.
16
4.1
Trade Volumes
Imports increase more than exports because Colombia’s import tariffs are high relative to the tradebarriers faced by Colombia in the US and Venezuela. Tables 3 and 4 show the largest changes to
export volume and import volume for Colombia.
Table 3: Largest Changes in Exports by Sector
∆
Export
Prod
US
Value-added Shares
%
%
%
Tariff
Labor
Skilled
Land
Captl
Other Crops
31
83
2
22
46
1
28
25
Sugar
11
18
1
53
37
8
0
55
Textiles
14
16
1
12
46
7
0
48
Wearing Apparel
52
18
1
15
54
8
0
39
Cereals and grains
-19
0
0
1
47
0
28
25
Motor Vehicles and Parts
-24
10
1
1
60
12
0
28
Table 4: Largest Changes in Imports by Sector
∆
Import
Prod
Import
Value-added Shares
%
%
%
Tariff
Labor
Skilled
Land
Capital
Resource
Crops
23
11
4
7
42
3
7
43
5
Cereals and grains
24
48
0
10
47
0
28
25
0
VF
36
6
2
10
46
1
28
25
0
Oil seeds
35
22
0
9
47
0
28
25
0
Meats
31
2
7
11
47
3
19
31
0
Wearing Apparel
29
7
1
18
54
8
0
39
0
Leather, wood, and paper
19
14
3
9
44
7
0
49
0
Other Crops
-19
6
2
8
46
1
28
25
0
Sugar
-18
1
1
2
37
8
0
55
0
Exports rise the most for “other crops” (mostly Colombian coffee), sugar, textiles, and finished
wearing apparel. Exports fall for cereal and grains, as well as motor vehicles and parts. Export
sectors that gain face relatively high barriers to trade in the United States, while the losers faced
low existing trade barriers. The fall in exports for these items occurs because trade is diverted
away from Colombia by competing South American exporters. This is known in the literature as
“trade diversion.”
Colombian tariffs are high for agriculture. So it is not surprising that imports increase the
17
most for these sectors if all tariffs are eliminated. The import response is also higher because
agricultural products are consumed directly by households, where the elasticity of substitution is
unity.16 Higher imports of agricultural products may hurt low-skilled wages. But this effect is
balanced by the increase in agricultural exports, which also uses low-skilled labor.
4.2
Other Scenarios
Besides our base scenario of free trade in the Americas, we also consider a number of plausible scenarios to help identify key linkages between the Colombian economy and the Western Hemisphere
trading partners. We consider five alternative scenarios listed in Table 5.
Table 5: Trading Scenarios Considered Parallell to the FTAA
Scenario
Description
FTAA XUS
FTAA scenario where the United States does not participate.
FTAA XAG
FTAA scenario with no concessions on agricultural goods.
ATPA
UNI
FTASA
US sets all import tariffs to zero for Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
Unilateral 50% reduction of import tariffs for Colombia.
Free trade in South America. Zero tariffs or export taxes for all
South American regions.
The role of the United States for Colombia is large, so we consider how the results change if the
FTAA agreement does not include the US (FTAA XUS). Given that agricultural concessions are
more difficult to negotiate, we consider an agreement without changes to agriculture (FTAA XAG).
The role of the ATPA preferences between Colombia, Peru, Bolivia and the US is examined in the
“ATPA” scenario. We consider what a unilateral 50% tariff reduction would do for Colombian
trade. The unilateral scenario was included because the FTAA scenario is similar, since most of
the impact comes from lowering Colombian tariffs rather than increased market access. Finally,
we have a scenario with Free Trade across South America.
4.3
Factor Returns
If agriculture is included in the FTAA, returns to unskilled labor and land increase somewhat as
demand for those factors increases. Energy exports also increase the return to natural resources
and physical capital. Oil and Coal exports increase by 1.4 and 2.0 percent, respectively, which
increases the value of in-situ coal and oil resources by 2.6%. The return to factor inputs is listed
16 We
assume the elasticity of substitution for intermediate inputs is zero for producers. This implies that lower
import prices lowers production costs, but that firms cannot substitute to the low-cost good. The elasticity of
substitution between domestic and imported goods, however is σDM = 4, which implies that firms can substitute
toward foreign goods if prices fall.
18
in Table 6.
Table 6: Return to Production Factors in Colombia
FTAA
FTAA XUS
FTAA XAG
ATPA
UNI
FTASA
Skilled Labor
0.92
0.35
0.65
0.00
0.82
-0.01
Unskilled Labor
1.28
0.24
0.61
0.78
0.64
0.64
Capital
0.95
0.24
0.46
0.50
0.59
0.43
Land
0.90
0.21
0.58
0.51
0.65
0.45
Natural Resources
2.66
1.94
3.53
-2.19
3.04
-1.94
Factor returns can be traced directly to sectoral production and exports. Scenarios which
increase exports for a sector, also increase the relative return to the factor used intensively in
production. For example, the ATPA scenario invokes a fall in Coal and Oil exports17 , which in
turn pushes natural resources returns downward by 2.2%.
Table 7: Resource-Intensity and Exports for Oil and Coal
Export
Prod
US
Value-added Shares
%
%
Tariff
Labor
Skilled
Land
Captl
Resources
Coal
91
1
0
16
1
0
43
40
Oil
52
2
0
10
2
0
49
38
FTAA
FTAA XUS
FTAA XAG
ATPA
UNI
FTASA
Coal
2.00
1.21
4.28
-5.03
3.95
-4.93
Oil
1.37
1.87
3.36
-3.93
2.46
-3.59
Change in Exports by Scenario
4.4
Relative Prices and Competitiveness
Table 8 shows the change in terms of trade for each sector. Two factors determine relative prices
and the competitive position of sectors in a constant-returns model: the change in tariff rates,
and the real exchange rate. We find that if agriculture is allowed into the FTAA, this sector
increases substantially. Other sectors which had low trade barriers in the benchmark may suffer
from worse terms of trade if the appreciation of the Colombian peso outweighs the tariff reductions.
For example, several manufactures already enjoy low tariffs in the US. So in the ATPA scenario,
exports fall. Table 8 shows the relative terms-of-trade for Colombian sectors. The terms-of-trade
17 These
sectors export less because the exchange rate appreciation from other exports outweighs the small change
in import tariffs.
19
Table 8: Change in Terms of Trade
ftaa
ftaa xus
ftaa xag
atpa
uni
ftasa
Crops
6.33
3.00
6.07
0.59
3.92
0.84
Cereals and grains
11.21
1.91
-0.60
1.46
5.77
1.61
Fruits and Vegatbles
10.25
7.15
-0.17
2.29
4.53
1.28
Oil seeds
11.20
6.79
0.13
1.28
4.59
2.01
Other Crops
6.47
3.49
-0.57
4.91
3.10
2.75
Meats
7.06
1.50
6.72
1.04
5.53
0.71
Natural Resources
3.33
2.64
3.02
0.71
2.00
0.56
Sugar
-0.11
1.20
-0.21
2.06
0.58
-1.19
Food products
5.18
2.31
5.07
1.78
2.14
1.01
Textiles
9.71
5.08
9.34
1.41
5.61
2.76
Wearing Apparel
28.05
5.30
27.70
7.50
8.03
14.54
Leather, wood, and paper
5.55
2.27
5.20
1.18
4.35
1.30
Petroleum Products
1.45
-0.17
1.15
1.48
0.57
0.34
Chemicals and plastics
3.23
1.02
2.83
1.19
2.75
1.21
Mineral products
4.62
2.34
4.20
1.12
4.20
0.88
Heavy Industry
4.13
1.46
3.77
1.00
3.15
0.64
Metal Products
5.88
1.93
5.43
1.08
4.67
1.25
Motor Vehicles and Parts
-4.17
-3.57
-4.45
0.53
8.91
0.47
Transport Equipment
0.13
-0.04
-0.19
0.87
2.77
0.95
Electronic Equipment
4.29
1.20
3.75
1.34
3.22
1.95
Machinery and Equipment
3.25
1.24
2.68
1.25
4.22
1.38
General Services
-0.07
-0.10
-0.29
0.46
-0.28
0.42
Transportation
0.03
-0.10
-0.30
0.67
-0.20
0.62
Communication
-0.05
-0.07
-0.28
0.49
-0.27
0.48
Business Services
-0.04
-0.10
-0.36
0.69
-0.35
0.64
20
are defined in this table as the relative increase in export prices when compared with the benchmark
ratio:
T OT =
PX /PM
0 /P 0 .
PX
M
(1)
The terms of trade generally increase when barriers to trade are lowered. In the ATPA scenario,
terms of trade improve as US import tariffs are eliminated, thereby increasing the relative price
of exports. Conversely, in the unilateral tariff reduction scenario, terms of trade improve because
import prices have fallen, while export prices remain constant.
4.5
Agriculture for Colombia in the FTAA
Most trade negotiators agree that agricultural trade barriers will be the last to go. It is possible
that the FTAA agreement moves forward with existing agricultural tariffs in place. A scenario
which eliminates trade barriers on all goods, except agriculture, shows that Colombian neo-classical
welfare falls slightly in this circumstance. Table 9 shows the summary results for this scenario.
Table 9: Summary Results for FTAA with No Agricultural Concessions
ftaa
ftaa xag
Welfare (%)
0.26
-0.13
Welfare (USD)
0.17
-0.09
-1.32
-0.09
-807.79
-790.83
1.40
2.01
Domestic Output
Tariff Revs (USD)
Real Exchange Rate
Nominal Exchange Rate
0.92
0.12
Exports (%)
23.49
16.81
Imports (%)
7.58
4.81
Tax revenues in this scenario fall almost as much as the FTAA scenario because Colombia does
not import much agriculture from the US, although it does import from neighboring countries.
The second difficult issue here is that much of Colombia’s exports are agricultural goods. The
net impact is limited access to US markets for important Colombian exports, such as coffee, oils,
and flowers. This is combined with large tax-revenue losses which come from tariff elimination in
Colombia for non-agricultural goods - which is the bulk of Colombian imports in the first place.
4.6
The Role of the ATPA
The Andean Trade Preference Act (ATPA) was renewed and expanded in 2002 for Colombia,
Peru, and Bolivia.18 Over 700 new goods were added to a list of duty-free access to the United
18 The
new trade agreement is called the “Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act” (ATPDEA).
21
States. Colombia already enjoys free access to US markets for over 6,000 goods. The benefits to
Colombia of a unilateral tariff reduction are large compared with the FTAA scenario. Colombia
enjoys improved terms of trade across the entire economy, which increases exports and domestic
production. Additional exports also serve to lower the real exchange rate, so that imports become
relatively less expensive too.
Table 10: Summary Results Table for Colombia
FTAA
ATPA
Welfare (%)
0.26
0.86
Welfare (USD)
0.17
0.56
-1.32
-0.51
-807.79
111.51
Real Exchange Rate
1.40
-1.13
Nominal Exchange Rate
0.92
2.16
Exports (%)
23.49
3.46
Imports (%)
7.58
3.30
Domestic Output
Tariff Revs (USD)
Total domestic production falls slightly, as imports are consumed instead of domestically produced goods, but overal welfare increases 0.86%, more than three times the improvement from the
FTAA. Since Colombia does not reduce tariffs to US products, government revenues increase by
111 million USD, as imports rise about 3%.
5
Conclusions
From a neo-classical viewpoint, the FTAA is unlikely to bring dramatic change to Colombia. With
full access to all goods, including agricultural products, the FTAA is expected increase overall
welfare by increasing total consumption in Colombia by 0.26%19 (or about $170 million USD). If
agricultural goods are excluded from the FTAA, Colombian consumption falls by a small amount
(-0.13%) (-$90 million USD). The main reason for the small gains is that Colombia already enjoys
relatively free access to markets with major trading partners like the US and Venezuela. The US
grants zero import tariff rates for several goods to Colombia under ATPA, and Colombia shares a
free-trade area with Venezuela as part of the Andean Trade Pact. We find that trade is diverted
from Colombia to other Latin American countries as new entrants (e.g., Brazil, Central America,
Venezuela) receive full access to US markets.
We also find that import tariff revenues should be an important consideration for Colombia,
lost revenues from tariff elimination must be recouped from other tax streams, at potentially
19 Welfare
changes are defined in terms of benchmark consumption (Equivalent Variation). A 1% welfare increase
implies that Colombian consumers should be willing to pay 1% to enjoy the new level of consumption.
22
high welfare costs. Colombian import tariff revenues were $1.4 billion USD in 1997, with almost
$500 million (36%) coming from the USA alone. The Colombian government is expected to lose
approximately $800 million USD from tariff elimination for FTAA imports. In our “base” model,
we assume that these revenues are replaced lump-sum, or with a Marginal Cost of Funds (MCF)
equal to unity. It is more likely that these revenues will be replaced by raising other taxes, such
as the VAT. Using the MegaTax model, we estimate the MCF for VAT revenues to be about 1.5,
which implies that the cost of replacing $800 million USD would be $1,200 million USD. This
reverses the welfare change for FTAA from a net benefit of 0.26% to a net loss of approximately
-0.20% of consumption.
Of course, there exist several important benefits from trade which are not reflected in this
study. First, we are using a constant-returns to scale model, which is probably not the case
for several important services. A recent study by Jensen et. al. [2002] shows that total gains
from service-sector liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment are 4-5 times larger than the
standard gains from improved terms of trade and lower distortions in the medium run. Gains
are even larger over the long run as investment adjusts to higher capital returns. Other benefits
which were not considered here are technology transfers, improved visibility and increased political
stability if Colombia becomes more integrated with the international community as a result of
FTAA accession. A model which incorporates endogenous growth effects, such as that developed
in Rutherford and Tarr [2002], would be expected to produce gains from trade liberalization several
multiples larger than the estimated gains of our CRTS model.
Table 11: Summary Results Table for Colombia
ftaa
ftaa xus
ftaa xag
Welfare (%)
0.26
-0.08
-0.13
Welfare (USD)
0.17
-0.05
-0.09
-1.32
-0.28
-0.09
Domestic Output
Tariff Revs (USD)
-807.79
-313.72
-790.83
Real Exchange Rate
1.40
0.79
2.01
Nominal Exchange Rate
0.92
-0.62
0.12
Exports (%)
23.49
17.95
16.81
Imports (%)
7.58
2.00
4.81
The aggregate impacts are relatively small, which hides some of the more important effects that
the FTAA will have upon various sectors in Colombia. The “other crops” sector, which mainly
reflects coffee, sees a 31% increase in export volume under the FTAA full-access agreement (but
only 6% if agricultural products are not included). Overall trade volume increases most for wearing
apparel, which increases in exports of 50%.
Under free trade, we expect those sectors in Colombia with an international comparative advan-
23
tage to increase, and other sectors to face increased competition from abroad. Both situations are
beneficial for Colombia, since increased export prices present a windfall to Colombian producers.
Import tariff elimination would lower the cost of intermediate inputs for producers and lower final
consumption prices for Colombians. This effect alone increases welfare and consumption for the
country. However, most of Colombia’s gain is likely to be offset by coincident increases in other
taxes to recuperate lost tax revenues.
Although Colombia doesn’t realize large gains from accession into the FTAA, this choice is
preferable to Colombian exclusion from the agreement. We find that welfare falls by 0.18% if
Colombia unilaterally decides does not participate in the FTAA.
In this paper we used traditional indicators to identify the economic impact of the FTAA for
Colombia. Under these auspices, it appears that Colombia has little to gain from an FTAA-style
agreement. However, several additional benefits of international trade exist, but are not captured
using a constant-returns model. Foreign direct investment by multinational corporations, and
increased productivity are important determinants of growth are two effects which have been welldocumented in the economic literature (see Markusen and Venables [1998], Ethier [1982], or Dixit
and Stiglitz [1977]).
A useful extension of this analysis is the identification of productivity changes which are likely
to arise from service-sector liberalization in Colombia as a result of the FTAA agreement.
24
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26
A
Regions and Sectoral Aggregation
The 16 regions and 29 sectors which comprise the Colombia data-aggregation are listed below.
Table 12: Aggregate Regions for FTAA Analysis
BRA
Brazil
ARG
Argentina
URY
Uruguay
CHL
Chile
COL
Colombia
PER
Peru
VEN
Venezuela
XAP
Rest of Andean Pact
MEX
Mexico
XCM
Central America and Caribbean
XSM
Rest of South America
CAN
Canada
USA
United States of America
EU
European Union 15
JPN
Japan
ROW
Rest of World
Table 13: Factors of Production in the GTAP Database
LND
Land
SKL
Skilled labor
LAB
Unskilled labor
CAP
Capital
RES
Natural resources
27
Table 14: Aggregate Sectors for FTAA Analysis
CRO
Paddy rice, Wheat, Sugar cane, plant fibers, wool, forestry, fishing
GRO
Cereal grains nec
VF
Vegetables - fruit - nuts
OSD
Oil seeds
OCR
Other Crops
MET
Bo horses, animal product, Bo meat, meat prod, dairy
COL
Coal
OIL
Oil
ONR
Gas - Other Natural Resources, minerals
SGR
Sugar
OFD
Food products nec
TEX
Textiles
WAP
Wearing apparel
SFT
Leather products,wood,paper,publishing
PC
Petroleum - coal products
CRP
Chemical - rubber - plastic products
NMM
Mineral products nec
IND
Heavy Industry: Ferrous metals, other metals, manufactures, elec-
FMP
Metal products
MVH
Motor vehicles and parts
OTN
Transport equipment nec
ELE
Electronic equipment
OME
Machinery and equipment nec
SER
Gas distribution, Water,Const, trade, recreation, public goods
TRN
Transportation:Air,Water,Other
CMN
Communication
BSR
Business Service: Financial, Insurance, Other
DWE
Ownership of dwellings
CGD
Savings good
tricity
28
B
Descriptive Statistics for Colombia
B.1
Production and Trade
Colombia’s production structure, import shares, and relative importance of trade is shown below
for a 10-sector aggregation of the GTAP dataset. We aggregated to a high level so that the reader
can easily view these base-year statistics. A more detailed description of trade and production for
this model is available in the modeling section of the Colombia FTAA website.20
Table 15: Baseline Imports and Exports (Billions of 1997 Pesos)
Oil
Food
Other
Cereals
Seeds
Agri
Energy
Manufact
Prod
Textiles
Manufact
Servcs
Total
0
36
4
7
111
6
35
268
38
505
Argentina
38
8
51
0
3
4
3
37
9
153
Uruguay
0
0
5
0
0
0
11
1
4
21
Chile
0
2
54
1
35
37
14
96
16
255
Brazil
Peru
1
4
3
17
16
98
90
159
8
395
19
38
115
284
1165
309
91
1319
5
3344
121
33
285
0
395
199
61
169
5
1268
Mexico
5
1
4
1
91
18
36
472
43
671
Central Am.
0
0
3
7
43
10
3
72
33
172
Rest of S.A.
3
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
2
8
61
2
29
8
33
7
3
138
109
390
USA
278
102
93
35
648
78
242
4151
913
6539
EU
15
35
10
10
424
61
82
2358
1887
4882
Venezuela
Bol./Equad.
Canada
Japan
0
0
0
1
552
1
4
556
261
1374
ROW
35
52
13
12
395
5
116
824
1266
2718
Total
575
313
670
384
3914
832
790
10620
4598
22696
B.2
Tariff Rates and Revenues
Protection in Colombia for key agricultural sectors, and lower import costs for important intermediate inputs to production. Description of tax-revenues from international trade and from other
sources.
20 This
website is located at: http://www.mileslight.com/Colombia/
29
Table 16: Benchmark Import Tariff Rates (Percentage)
Brazil
Argentina
Uruguay
Chile
Peru
Venezuela
Rest of Andean Pact
Mexico
Central America
Rest of S.A.
Canada
USA
EU
Japan
Rest of World
Cereals
12
12
0
12
0
0
0
12
0
13
12
12
12
20
12
Oil
Seeds
10
12
0
18
0
0
0
14
11
0
18
12
15
19
13
Agri
15
18
10
14
0
0
0
14
11
11
14
16
12
0
12
Energy
8
0
5
5
0
0
0
5
9
5
5
9
8
9
8
Manufact
16
12
15
20
0
0
0
20
7
2
15
10
13
22
22
Food
Prod
18
19
18
18
0
0
0
18
19
0
19
18
18
18
18
Textiles
17
11
13
20
0
0
0
16
18
20
16
18
17
18
18
Other
Manufact
9
8
9
10
0
0
0
11
9
5
6
9
8
8
9
Servcs
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 17: Import Tariff Rates faced by Colombia (Percentage)
Brazil
Argentina
Uruguay
Chile
Colombia
Peru
Venezuela
Boliv/Equad
Mexico
Central America
Rest of S.A.
Canada
USA
EU
Japan
Rest of World
Cereals
13
13
13
12
0
0
0
0
21
36
0
3
4
76
321
19
Oil
Seeds
9
9
9
11
0
0
0
0
4
18
8
2
23
3
22
36
Agri
11
11
11
14
0
0
0
0
19
12
0
10
5
15
8
17
Energy
5
5
5
11
0
0
0
0
7
5
0
0
0
0
0
3
30
Manufact
18
18
18
11
0
0
0
0
22
13
21
8
4
1
4
5
Food
Prod
17
17
17
11
0
0
0
0
19
16
15
15
11
30
37
47
Textiles
17
17
17
11
0
0
0
0
24
19
12
20
15
12
12
14
Other
Manufact
12
12
12
11
0
0
0
0
6
7
12
5
3
4
1
3
Servcs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 18: Import Tariff Revenues (Billions of 1997 Pesos)
Brazil
Argentina
Uruguay
Chile
Mexico
Central America
Rest of S.A.
Canada
USA
EU
Japan
Rest of World
TOTAL
Cereals
0
5
0
0
1
0
0
7
33
2
0
4
52
Oil
Seeds
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
5
0
7
30
Agri
1
9
0
8
1
0
0
4
15
1
0
2
41
Energy
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
3
1
0
1
7
31
Manufact
17
0
0
7
18
3
0
5
66
56
120
86
379
Food
Prod
1
1
0
7
3
2
0
1
14
11
0
1
42
Textiles
6
0
1
3
6
1
0
0
43
14
1
21
96
Other
Manufact
24
3
0
10
52
7
0
9
353
196
42
78
773
Servcs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
2
6
Total
53
19
2
35
80
13
1
28
541
289
164
201
1424
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
Título
Autores
Fecha
1
La coyuntura económica en Colombia y Venezuela
Andrés Langebaek
Patricia Delgado
Fernando Mesa Parra
Octubre 1992
2
La tasa de cambio y el comercio colombo-venezolano
Fernando Mesa Parra
Andrés Langebaek
Noviembre 1992
3
¿Las mayores exportaciones colombianas de café redujeron
el precio externo?
Carlos Esteban Posada
Andrés Langebaek
Noviembre 1992
4
El déficit público: una perspectiva macroeconómica.
Jorge Enrique Restrepo
Juan Pablo Zárate
Carlos Esteban Posada
Noviembre 1992
5
El costo de uso del capital en Colombia.
Mauricio Olivera
Diciembre 1992
6
Colombia y los flujos de capital privado a América Latina
Andrés Langebaek
Febrero 1993
7
Infraestructura física. “Clubs de convergencia” y crecimiento
económico.
José Dario Uribe
Febrero 1993
8
El costo de uso del capital: una nueva estimación (Revisión)
Mauricio Olivera
Marzo 1993
9
Dos modelos de transporte de carga por carretera.
Carlos Esteban Posada
Edgar Trujillo Ciro
Alvaro Concha
Juan Carlos Elorza
Marzo 1993
10
La determinación del precio interno del café en un modelo
de optimización intertemporal.
Carlos Felipe Jaramillo
Carlos Esteban Posada
Edgar Trujillo Ciro
Abril 1993
11
El encaje óptimo
Edgar Trujillo Ciro
Carlos Esteban Posada
Mayo 1993
12
Crecimiento económico, “Capital
humano” y educación: la teoría y el
caso colombiano posterior a 1945
Carlos Esteban Posada
Junio 1993
13
Estimación del PIB trimestral según los componentes del gasto.
Rafael Cubillos
Fanny Mercedes Valderrama
Junio 1993
14
Diferencial de tasas de interés y flujos de capital en Colombia
(1980-1993)
Andrés Langebaek
Agosto 1993
15
Empleo y capital en Colombia: nuevas
estimaciones (1950-1992)
Adriana Barrios
Marta Luz Henao
Carlos Esteban Posada
Fanny Mercedes Valderrama
Diego Mauricio Vásquez
Septiembre 1993
16
Productividad, crecimiento y ciclos en la economía
colombiana (1967-1992)
Carlos Esteban Posada
Septiembre 1993
17
Crecimiento económico y apertura en Chile y México y
perspectivas para Colombia.
Fernando Mesa Parra
Septiembre 1993
18
El papel del capital público en la producción, inversión y
el crecimiento económico en Colombia.
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Octubre 1993
19
Tasa de cambio real y tasa de cambio de equilibrio.
Andrés Langebaek
Octubre 1993
20
La evolución económica reciente: dos interpretaciones
alternativas.
Carlos Esteban Posada
Noviembre 1993
21
El papel de gasto público y su financiación en la coyuntura
actual: algunas implicaciones complementarias.
Alvaro Zarta Avila
Diciembre 1993
22
Inversión extranjera y crecimiento económico.
Alejandro Gaviria
Diciembre 1993
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
Título
Autores
Fecha
Javier Alberto Gutiérrez
23
Inflación y crecimiento en Colombia
Alejandro Gaviria
Carlos Esteban Posada
Febrero 1994
24
Exportaciones y crecimiento en Colombia
Fernando Mesa Parra
Febrero 1994
25
Experimento con la vieja y la nueva teoría del crecimiento
económico (¿porqué crece tan rápido China?)
Carlos Esteban Posada
Febrero 1994
26
Modelos económicos de criminalidad y la posibilidad de
una dinámica prolongada.
Carlos Esteban Posada
Abril 1994
27
Regímenes cambiarios, política macroeconómica y flujos
de capital en Colombia.
Carlos Esteban Posada
Abril 1994
28
Comercio intraindustrial: el caso colombiano
Carlos Pombo
Abril 1994
29
Efectos de una bonanza petrolera a la luz de un modelo
de optimización intertemporal.
Hernando Zuleta
Juan Pablo Arango
Mayo 1994
30
.
Crecimiento económico y productividad en Colombia:
una perspectiva de largo plazo (1957-1994)
Sergio Clavijo
Junio 1994
31
Inflación o desempleo: ¿Acaso hay escogencia en Colombia?
Sergio Clavijo
Agosto 1994
32
La distribución del ingreso y el sistema financiero
Edgar Trujillo Ciro
Agosto 1994
33
La trinidad económica imposible en Colombia: estabilidad
cambiaria, independencia monetaria y flujos de capital libres
Sergio Clavijo
Agosto 1994
34
¿’Déjà vu?: tasa de cambio, deuda externa y esfuerzo exportador Sergio Clavijo
en Colombia.
Mayo 1995
35
La crítica de Lucas y la inversión en Colombia:
nueva evidencia
Mauricio Cárdenas
Mauricio Olivera
Septiembre 1995
36
Tasa de Cambio y ajuste del sector externo en Colombia.
Fernando Mesa Parra
Dairo Estrada
Septiembre 1995
37
Análisis de la evolución y composición del Sector Público.
Mauricio Olivera G.
Manuel Fernando Castro Q.
Fabio Sánchez T.
Septiembre 1995
38
Incidencia distributiva del IVA en un modelo del ciclo de vida.
Juan Carlos Parra Osorio
Fabio José Sánchez T.
Octubre 1995
39
Por qué los niños pobres no van a la escuela?
(Determinantes de la asistencia escolar en Colombia)
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Jairo Augusto Núñez M.
Noviembre 1995
40
Matriz de Contabilidad Social 1992.
Fanny M. Valderrama
Javier Alberto Gutiérrez
Diciembre 1995
41
Multiplicadores de Contabilidad derivados de la Matriz
de Contabilidad Social
Javier Alberto Gutiérrez
Fanny M. Valderrama G.
Enero 1996
42
El ciclo de referencia de la economía colombiana.
Martin Maurer
María Camila Uribe S.
Febrero 1996
43
Impacto de las transferencias intergubernamentales en la
distribución interpersonal del ingreso en Colombia.
Juan Carlos Parra Osorio
Marzo 1996
44
Auge y colapso del ahorro empresarial en Colombia:
1983-1994
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Guillermo Murcia Guzmán
Carlos Oliva Neira
Abril 1996
45
Evolución y comportamiento del gasto público en Colombia:
1950-1994
Cielo María Numpaque
Ligia Rodríguez Cuestas
Mayo 1996
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
Título
Autores
Fecha
46
Los efectos no considerados de la apertura económica en el
mercado laboral industrial.
Fernando Mesa Parra
Javier Alberto Gutiérrez
Mayo 1996
47
Un modelo de Financiamiento óptimo de unaumento
permanente en el gasto público:
Una ilustración con el caso colombiano.
Alvaro Zarta Avila
Junio 1996
48
Estadísticas descriptivas del mercado laboral masculino y
femenino en Colombia: 1976 -1995
Rocío Ribero M.
Carmen Juliana García B.
Agosto 1996
49
Un sistema de indicadores líderes para Colombia
Martín Maurer
María Camila Uribe
Javier Birchenall
Agosto 1996
50
Evolución y determinantes de la productividad en Colombia:
Un análisis global y sectorial
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Jorge Iván Rodríguez
Jairo Núñez Méndez
Agosto 1996
51
Gobernabilidad y Finanzas Públicas en Colombia.
César A. Caballero R
Noviembre 1996
52
Tasas Marginales Efectivas de Tributación en Colombia.
Mauricio Olivera G.
Noviembre 1996
53
Un modelo keynesiano para la economía colombiana
Fabio José Sánchez T.
Clara Elena Parra
Febrero 1997
54
Trimestralización del Producto Interno Bruto por el lado
de la oferta.
Fanny M. Valderrama
Febrero 1997
55
Poder de mercado, economías de escala, complementariedades
intersectoriales y crecimiento de la productividad en la
industria colombiana.
Juán Mauricio Ramírez
Marzo 1997
56
Estimación y calibración de sistemas flexibles de gasto.
Orlando Gracia
Gustavo Hernández
Abril 1997
57
Mecanismos de ahorro e Inversión en las Empresas Públicas
Colombianas: 1985-1994
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Guilllermo Murcia G.
Mayo 1997
58
Capital Flows, Savings and investment in Colombia: 1990-1996
José Antonio Ocampo G.
Camilo Ernesto Tovar M.
Mayo 1997
59
Un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable con
Competencia imperfecta para Colombia.
Juan Pablo Arango
Orlando Gracia
Gustavo Hernández
Juan Mauricio Ramírez
Junio 1997
Javier A. Birchenall J.
Julio 1997
Alberto Castañeda C.
Gabriel Piraquive G.
Julio 1997
60
El cálculo del PIB Potencial en Colombia.
61
Determinantes del Ahorro de los hogares.
de su caída en los noventa.
62
Los ingresos laborales de hombres y
mujeres en Colombia: 1976-1995
Rocío Ribero
Claudia Meza
Agosto 1997
63
Determinantes de la participación laboral de hombres y
mujeres en Colombia: 1976-1995
Rocío Ribero
Claudia Meza
Agosto 1997
64
Inversión bajo incertidumbre en la Industria Colombiana:
1985-1995
Javier A. Birchenall
Agosto 1997
65
Modelo IS-LM para Colombia. Relaciones de largo plazo y
fluctuaciones económicas.
Jorge Enrique Restrepo
Agosto 1997
66
Correcciones a los Ingresos de las Encuestas de hogares y
distribución del Ingreso Urbano en Colombia.
Jairo A. Núñez Méndez
Jaime A. Jiménez Castro
Septiembre 1997
67
Ahorro, Inversión y Transferencias en las Entidades
Territoriales Colombianas
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Mauricio Olivera G.
Giovanni Cortés S.
Octubre 1997
Explicación
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
Título
Autores
Fecha
68
Efectos de la Tasa de cambio real sobre la Inversión
industrial en un Modelo de transferencia de precios.
Fernando Mesa Parra
Leyla Marcela Salguero
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Octubre 1997
69
Convergencia Regional: Una revisión del caso
Colombiano.
Javier A. Birchenall
Guillermo E. Murcia G.
Octubre 1997
70
Income distribution, human capital and economic
growth in Colombia.
Javier A. Birchenall
Octubre 1997
71
Evolución y determinantes del Ahorro del Gobierno Central.
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Ma. Victoria Angulo
Noviembre 1997
72
Macroeconomic Perforrmance and Inequality in Colombia:
1976-1996
Raquel Bernal
Mauricio Cárdenas
Jairo Núñez Méndez
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Diciembre 1997
73
Liberación comercial y salarios en Colombia: 1976-1994
Donald Robbins
Enero 1998
74
Educación y salarios relativos en Colombia: 1976-1995
Determinantes, evolución e implicaciones para
la distribución del Ingreso
Jairo Núñez Méndez
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Enero 1998
75
La tasa de interés “óptima”
Carlos Esteban Posada
Edgar Trujillo Ciro
Febrero 1998
76
Los costos económicos de la criminalidad y la violencia en
Colombia: 1991-1996
Edgar Trujillo Ciro
Martha Elena Badel
Marzo 1998
77
Elasticidades Precio y Sustitución para la Industria
Colombiana.
Juán Pablo Arango
Orlando Gracia
Gustavo Hernández
Marzo 1998
78
Flujos Internacionales de Capital en Colombia:
Un enfoque de Portafolio
Ricardo Rocha García
Fernando Mesa Parra
Marzo 1998
79
Macroeconomía, ajuste estructural y equidad en Colombia:
1978-1996
José Antonio Ocampo
María José Pérez
Camilo Ernesto Tovar
Francisco Javier Lasso
Marzo 1998
80
La Curva de Salarios para Colombia. Una Estimación de las
Relaciones entre el Desempleo, la Inflación y los Ingresos
Laborales: 1984- 1996.
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Jairo Núñez Méndez
Marzo 1998
81
Participación, Desempleo y Mercados Laborales en Colombia.
Jaime Tenjo G.
Rocio Ribero M.
Abril 1998
82
Reformas comerciales, márgenes de beneficio y
productividad en la industria colombiana
Juán Pablo Arango
Orlando Gracia
Gustavo Hernández
Juán Mauricio Ramírez
Abril 1998
83
Capital y Crecimiento Económico en un Modelo
Dinámico: Una presentación de la dinámica
Transicional para los casos de EEUU y Colombia
Alvaro Zarta Avila
Mayo 1998.
84
Determinantes de la Inversión en Colombia:E videncia sobre
el capital humano y la violencia.
Clara Helena Parra
Junio 1998.
85
Mujeres en sus casas: Un recuento de la población
Femenina económicamente activa
Piedad Urdinola Contreras
Junio 1998.
86
Descomposición de la desigualdad del Ingreso laboral
Urbano en Colombia: 1976-1997
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Jairo Núñez Méndez
Junio 1998.
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
Título
Autores
Fecha
87
El tamaño del Estado Colombiano Indicadores y tendencias:
1976-1997
Angela Cordi Galat
Junio 1998.
88
Elasticidades de sustitución de las importaciones para la
economía colombiana.
Gustavo Hernández
Junio 1998.
89
La tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia
Martha Luz Henao
Norberto Rojas
Junio 1998.
90
The role of shocks in the colombian economy
Ana María Menéndez
Julio 1998.
91
The determinants of Human Capital Accumulation in
Colombia, with implications for Trade and Growth Theory
Donald J. Robbins
Julio 1998.
92
Estimaciones de funciones de demanda de trabajo dinámicas
para la economía colombiana, 1980-1996
Alejandro Vivas Benítez
Stefano Farné
Dagoberto Urbano
Julio 1998.
93
Análisis de las relaciones entre violencia y equidad.
Alfredo Sarmiento
Lida Marina Becerra
Agosto 1998.
94
Evaluación teórica y empírica de las exportaciones
no tradicionales en Colombia
Fernando Mesa Parra
María Isabel Cock
Angela Patricia Jiménez
Agosto 1998.
95
Valoración económica del empleo doméstico femenino
no remunerado, en Colombia, 1978-1993
Piedad Urdinola Contreras
Agosto 1998.
96
Eficiencia en el Gasto Público de Educación.
María Camila Uribe
Agosto 1998.
97
El desempleo en Colombia: tasa natural, desempleo cíclico
y estructural y la duración del desempleo: 1976-1998.
Jairo Núñez M.
Raquel Bernal S.
Septiembre 1998.
98
Productividad y retornos sociales del Capital humano:
Microfundamentos y evidencia para Colombia.
Francisco A. González R.
Carolina Guzmán R.
Angela L. Pachón G.
Noviembre 1998.
99
Reglas monetarias en Colombia y Chile
Jorge E. Restrepo L.
Enero 1999.
100
Inflation Target Zone: The Case of Colombia: 1973-1994
Jorge E. Restrepo L.
Febrero 1999.
101
¿ Es creíble la Política Cambiaria en Colombia?
Carolina Hoyos V.
Marzo 1999.
102
La Curva de Phillips, la Crítica de Lucas y la persistencia
de la inflación en Colombia.
Javier A.Birchenall
Abril 1999.
103
Un modelo macroeconométrico para la economía
Colombiana
Javier A.Birchenall
Juan Daniel Oviedo
Abril 1999.
104
Una revisión de la literatura teórica y la experiencia
Internacional en regulación
Marcela Eslava Mejía
Abril 1999.
105
El transporte terrestre de carga en Colombia
Documento para el Taller de Regulación.
Marcela Eslava Mejía
Eleonora Lozano Rodríguez
Abril 1999.
106
Notas de Economía Monetaria. (Primera Parte)
Juan Carlos Echeverry G.
Abril 1999.
107
Ejercicios de Causalidad y Exogeneidad para Ingresos
salariales nominales públicos y privados Colombianos
(1976-1997).
Mauricio Bussolo
Orlando Gracia
Camilo Zea
Mayo 1999.
108
Real Exchange Rate Swings and Export Behavior:
Explaining the Robustness of Chilean Exports.
Felipe Illanes
Mayo 1999.
109
Segregación laboral en las 7 principales ciudades del país.
Piedad Urdinola
Mayo 1999.
110
Estimaciones trimestrales de la línea de pobreza y sus relaciones Jairo Núñez Méndez
con el desempeño macroeconómico Colombiano: (1977-1997) Fabio José Sánchez T.
Mayo 1999
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
Título
Autores
Fecha
111
Costos de la corrupción en Colombia.
Marta Elena Badel
Mayo 1999
112
Relevancia de la dinámica transicional para el
crecimiento de largo plazo: Efectos sobre las tasas de
interés real, la productividad marginal y la estructura
de la producción para los casos de EEUU y Colombia..
Alvaro Zarta
Junio 1999
113
La recesión actual en Colombia: Flujos, Balances y
Política anticíclica
Juan Carlos Echeverry
Junio 1999
114
Monetary Rules in a Small Open Economy
Jorge E. Restrepo L.
Junio 1999
115
El Balance del Sector Público y la Sostenibilidad
Fiscal en Colombia
Juan Carlos Echeverry
Gabriel Piraquive
Natalia Salazar
Ma. Victoria Angulo
Gustavo Hernández
Cielo Ma. Numpaque
Israel Fainboim
Carlos Jorge Rodriguez
Junio 1999
116
Crisis y recuperación de las Finanzas Públicas lecciones
de América Latina para el caso colombiano.
Marcela Eslava Mejía
Julio 1999
117
Complementariedades Factoriales y Cambio Técnico
en la Industria Colombiana.
Gustavo Hernández
Juan Mauricio Ramírez
Julio 1999
118
¿Hay un estancamiento en la oferta de crédito?
Juan Carlos Echeverry
Natalia Salazar
Julio 1999
119
Income distribution and macroeconomics in Colombia.
Javier A. Birchenall J.
Julio 1999.
120
Transporte carretero de carga. Taller de regulación.
DNP-UMACRO. Informe final.
Juan Carlos Echeverry G.
Marcela Eslava Mejía
Eleonora Lozano Rodriguez
Agosto 1999.
121
¿ Se cumplen las verdades nacionales a nivel regional?
Primera aproximación a la construcción de matrices de
contabilidad social regionales en Colombia.
Nelly.Angela Cordi Galat
Agosto 1999.
122
El capital social en Colombia.
La medición nacional con el BARCAS
Separata N° 1 de 5
John SUDARSKY
Octubre 1999.
123
El capital social en Colombia.
La medición nacional con el BARCAS
Separata N° 2 de 5
John SUDARSKY
Octubre 1999.
124
El capital social en Colombia.
La medición nacional con el BARCAS
Separata N° 3 de 5
John SUDARSKY
Octubre 1999.
125
El capital social en Colombia.
La medición nacional con el BARCAS
Separata N° 4 de 5
John SUDARSKY
Octubre 1999.
126
El capital social en Colombia.
La medición nacional con el BARCAS
Separata N° 5 de 5
John SUDARSKY
Octubre 1999.
127
The Liquidity Effect in Colombia
Jorge E. Restrepo
Noviembre 1999.
128
Upac: Evolución y crisis de un modelo de desarrollo.
Juan C Echeverry
Orlando Gracia
B. Piedad Urdinola
Diciembre 1999.
129
Confronting fiscal imbalances via intertemporal
Economics, politics and justice: the case of Colombia
Juan C Echeverry
Verónica Navas-Ospina
Diciembre 1999.
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
Título
Autores
Fecha
130
La tasa de interés en la coyuntura reciente en Colombia.
Jorge Enrique Restrepo
Edgar Trujillo Ciro
Diciembre 1999.
131
Los ciclos económicos en Colombia. Evidencia empírica:
(1977-1998)
Jorge Enrique Restrepo
José Daniel Reyes Peña
Enero 2000.
132
Colombia'
natural trade partners and its bilateral trade
performance: Evidence from 1960 to 1996
Hernán Eduardo Vallejo
Enero 2000.
133
Los derechos constitucionales de prestación y sus
implicaciones económico- políticas. Los casos del
derecho a la salud y de los derechos de los reclusos
Luis Carlos Sotelo
Febrero 2000.
134
La reactivación productiva del sector privado colombiano
(Documento elaborado para el BID)
Luis Alberto Zuleta
Marzo 2000.
135
Geography and Economic Development:
A Municipal Approach for Colombia.
Fabio José Sánchez T.
Jairo Núñez Méndez
Marzo 2000.
136
La evaluación de resultados en la modernización
del Estado en América Latina. Restricciones y
Estrategia para su desarrollo.
Eduardo Wiesner Durán
Abril 2000.
137
La regulación de precios del transporte de carga por
carretera en Colombia.
Marcela Eslava Mejía
Abril 2000.
138
El conflicto armado en Colombia.
Una aproximación a la teoría de juegos.
Yuri Gorbaneff
Flavio Jácome
Julio 2000.
139
Determinación del consumo básico de agua potable
subsidiable en Colombia.
Juan Carlos Junca Salas
Noviembre 2000.
Incidencia fiscal de los incentivos tributarios
Juan Ricardo Ortega
Gabriel Armando Piraquive
Gustavo Adolfo Hernández
Carolina Soto Losada
Sergio Iván Prada
Juan Mauricio Ramirez
Noviembre 2000.
141
Exenciones tributarias:
Costo fiscal y análisis de incidencia
Gustavo A. Hernández
Carolina Soto Losada
Sergio Iván Prada
Juan Mauricio Ramirez
Diciembre 2000
142
La contabilidad del crecimiento, las dinámicas transicionales y
el largo plazo: Una comparación internacional de 46 países y
una presentación de casos de economías tipo:
EEUU, Corea del Sur y Colombia.
Alvaro Zarta Avila
Febrero 2001
143
¿Nos parecemos al resto del mundo?
El Conflicto colombiano en el contexto internacional.
Juan Carlos Echeverry G.
Natalia Salazar Ferro
Verónica Navas Ospina
Febrero 2001
144
Inconstitucionalidad del Plan Nacional de Desarrollo:
causas, efectos y alternativas.
Luis Edmundo Suárez S.
Diego Mauricio Avila A.
Marzo 2001
145
La afiliación a la salud y los efectos redistributivos
de los subsidios a la demanda.
Hernando Moreno G.
Abril 2001
146
La participación laboral: ¿qué ha pasado y qué
podemos esperar?
Mauricio Santamaría S.
Norberto Rojas Delgadillo
Abril 2001
147
Análisis de las importaciones agropecuarias en la
década de los Noventa.
Gustavo Hernández
Juan Ricardo Perilla
Mayo 2001
148
Impacto económico del programa de Desarrollo
alternativo del Plan Colombia
Gustavo A. Hernández
Sergio Iván Prada
Juan Mauricio Ramírez
Mayo 2001
.
140
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
Título
Autores
Fecha
149
Análisis de la presupuestación de la inversión de la Nación.
Ulpiano Ayala Oramas
Mayo 2001
150
DNPENSION: Un modelo de simulación para estimar
el costo fiscal del sistema pensional colombiano.
Juan Carlos Parra Osorio
Mayo 2001
151
La oferta de combustible de Venezuela en la frontera
con Colombia: una aproximación a su cuantificación
Hernando Moreno G.
Junio 2001
152
Shocks fiscales y términos de intercambio en el caso
colombiano.
Ómer ÖZAK MUñOZ.
Julio 2001
153
Demanda por importaciones en Colombia:
Una estimación.
Igor Esteban Zuccardi
Julio 2001
154
Elementos para mejorar la adaptabilidad del
mercado laboral colombiano.
Mauricio Santa María S.
Norberto Rojas Delgadillo
Agosto 2001
155
¿Qué tan poderosas son las aerolíneas colombianas?
Estimación de poder de mercado de las rutas colombianas.
Ximena Peña Parga
Agosto 2001
156
Elementos para el debate sobre una nueva reforma
pensional en Colombia.
Juan Carlos Echeverry
Andrés Escobar Arango
César Merchán Hernández
Gabriel Piraquive Galeano
Mauricio Santa María S.
Septiembre 2001
157
Agregando votos en un sistema altamente
desistitucionalizado.
Francisco Gutiérrez Sanín
Octubre
158
Eficiencia -X en el Sector Bancario Colombiano
Carlos Alberto Castro I
Noviembre 2001
159
Determinantes de la calidad de la educación en Colombia.
Alejandro Gaviria
Jorge Hugo Barrientos
Noviembre 2001
160
Evaluación de la descentralización municipal.
Descentralización y macroeconomía
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Noviembre 2001
161
Impuestos a las transacciones: Implicaciones sobre el bienestar
y el crecimiento.
Rodrigo Suescún
Noviembre 2001
162
Strategic Trade Policy and Exchange Rate Uncertainty
Fernando Mesa Parra
Noviembre 2001
163
Evaluación de la descentralización municipal en Colombia.
Avances y resultados de la descentralización
Política en Colombia
Alberto Maldonado C.
Noviembre 2001
164
Choques financieros, precios de activos y recesión
en Colombia.
Alejandro Badel Flórez
Noviembre 2001
165
Evaluación de la descentralización municipal en
Colombia. ¿Se consolidó la sostenibilidad fiscal de los
municipios colombianos durante los años noventa.
Juan Gonzalo Zapata
Olga Lucía Acosta
Adriana González
Noviembre 2001
166
Evaluación de la descentralización municipal en
Colombia. La descentralización en el Sector de
Agua potable y Saneamiento básico.
Maria Mercedes Maldonado
Gonzalo Vargas Forero
Noviembre 2001
167
Evaluación de la descentralización municipal en
Colombia. La relación entre corrupción y proceso
de descentralización en Colombia.
Edgar González Salas
Diciembre 2001
168
Evaluación de la descentralización municipal en
Colombia. Estudio general sobre antecedentes,
diseño, avances y resultados generales del proceso de
descentralización territorial en el Sector Educativo.
Carmen Helena Vergara
Mary Simpson
Diciembre 2001
169
Evaluación de la descentralización municipal en
Colombia. Componente de capacidad institucional.
Edgar González Salas
Diciembre 2001
2001
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
Título
Autores
Fecha
170
Evaluación de la descentralización municipal en
Colombia. Evaluación de la descentralización en
Salud en Colombia.
Iván Jaramillo Pérez
Diciembre 2001
171
External Trade, Skill, Technology and the recent
increase of income inequality in Colombia
Mauricio Santa María S.
Diciembre 2001
172
Seguimiento y evaluación de la participación de los
resguardos indígenas en los ingresos corrientes de la
Nación para el período 1998 y 1999.
Dirección de Desarrollo
Territorial
Diciembre 2001
173
Exposición de Motivos de la Reforma de la Ley 60 de
1993. Sector Educación y Sector Salud
Dirección de Desarrollo
Social
Diciembre 2001
174
Transferencias, incentivos y la endogenidad del gasto
Territorial. Seminario internacional sobre Federalismo
fiscal - Secretaría de Hacienda de México, CEPAL,
ILPES, CAF - Cancún, México. 18-20 de Mayo de 2000
Eduardo Wiesner Durán
Enero 2002.
175
Cualificación laboral y grado de sindicalización
Flavio Jácome Liévano
Enero 2002.
176
OFFSETS: Aproximación teórica y experiencia
Internacional.
Nohora Eugenia Posada
Yaneth Cristina Giha Tovar
Paola Buendía García
Alvaro José Chávez G.
Febrero 2002.
177
Pensiones: conceptos y esquemas de financiación
César Augusto Merchán H.
Febrero 2002.
178
La erradicación de las minas antipersonal sembradas
en Colombia - Implicaciones y costos-
Yilberto Lahuerta P.
Ivette María Altamar
Marzo 2002.
179
Economic growth in Colombia: A reversal of "Fortune"?
Mauricio Cárdenas S.
Marzo 2002.
180
El siglo del modelo de desarrollo.
Juan Carlos Echeverry G
Abril 2002.
181
Metodología de un Modelo ARIMA condicionado
para el pronóstico del PIB.
Juan Pablo Herrera S.
Gustavo A. Hernández D.
Abril 2002.
182
¿Cuáles son los colombianos con pensiones
privilegiadas?
César Augusto Merchán H.
Abril 2002.
183
Garantías en carreteras de primera generación.
Impacto económico.
José Daniel Reyes Peña.
Abril 2002
184
Impacto económico de las garantías de la Nación
en proyectos de infraestructura.
José Daniel Reyes Peña.
Abril 2002
185
Aproximación metodológica y cuantitativa
de los costos económicos generados por el
problema de las drogas ilícitas en Colombia
(1995 - 2000)
Ricardo Pérez Sandoval
Andrés Vergara Ballén
Yilberto Lahuerta P
Abril 2002
186
Tendencia, ciclos y distribución del ingreso
en Colombia: una crítica al concepto de
"modelo de desarrollo"
Juan Carlos Echeverry G.
Andrés Escobar Arango
Mauricio Santa María S.
Abril 2002.
187
Crecimiento y ciclos económicos. Efectos de los choques
de oferta y demanda en el crecimiento colombiano
Igor Esteban Zuccardi H.
Mayo 2002.
188
A general equilibrium model for tax policy
analysis in Colombia. The MEGATAX model.
Thomas F. Rutherford.
Miles K. Light
Mayo 2002.
189
A dynamic general equilibrium model for tax
policy analysis in Colombia.
Thomas F. Rutherford.
Miles K. Light
Gustavo Hernández
Mayo 2002.
190
Sistema Bancario Colombiano:
¿Somos eficientes a nivel internacional?
Alejandro Badel Flórez.
Junio 2002.
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
Título
191
Política para mejorar el servicio de transporte público
urbano de pasajeros.
192
Two decades of economic and social development
in urban Colombia: a mixed outcome
Autores
Fecha
DNP: DIE- GEINF
Junio 2002.
Junio 2002.
!"#
193
¿Cuáles colegios ofrecen mejor educación en Colombia?
$
Jairo Núñez Méndez
Roberto Steiner
Ximena Cadena
Renata Pardo
CEDE, U. de los Andes
Junio 2002.
194
Nuevos enfoques de política regional en América Latina:
El caso de Colombia en perspectiva histórica.
Las nuevas teorías y enfoques conceptuales sobre el
desarrollo regional. ¿Hacia un nuevo paradigma?
Separata 1 de 7
Edgard Moncayo J.
Julio 2002.
195
Nuevos enfoques de política regional en América Latina:
El caso de Colombia en perspectiva histórica.
Las políticas regionales: Un enfoque por generaciones
Separata 2 de 7
Edgard Moncayo J.
Julio 2002.
196
Nuevos enfoques de política regional en América Latina:
El caso de Colombia en perspectiva histórica.
Un mundo de geometría variable:
Los territorios que ganan y los que pierden.
Separata 3 de 7
Edgard Moncayo J.
Julio 2002.
197
Nuevos enfoques de política regional en América Latina:
El caso de Colombia en perspectiva histórica.
Enfoques teóricos y evidencias empíricas sobre
el desarrollo regional en Colombia.
Separata 4 de 7
Edgard Moncayo J.
Julio 2002.
198
Nuevos enfoques de política regional en América Latina:
El caso de Colombia en perspectiva histórica.
Las políticas regionales en Colombia.
Separata 5 de 7
Edgard Moncayo J.
Julio 2002.
199
Nuevos enfoques de política regional en América Latina:
El caso de Colombia en perspectiva histórica.
Tendencias del desarrollo regional en Colombia.
-Polarización, apertura y conflictoSeparata 6 de 7
Edgard Moncayo J.
Julio 2002.
200
Nuevos enfoques de política regional en América Latina:
El caso de Colombia en perspectiva histórica.
Marco conceptual y metodológico para el diseño
de una nueva generación de políticas de desarrollo
regional en Colombia.
Separata 7 de 7
Edgard Moncayo J.
Julio 2002.
201
Viabilidad de los servicios públicos domiciliarios
en la ciudad de Santiago de Cali.
Mauricio Santa María
Francisco Bernal
Carlos David Beltrán
David Villalba
Agosto 2002
202
Optimal enforcement: Finding the right balance
Jaime Andrés Estrada
Agosto 2002
203
Does corporate governance matter for developing
countries?
An overview of the Mexican case.
Paula Acosta Márquez
Agosto 2002
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
Título
Autores
Fecha
204
Reflexiones sobre el proceso de paz del gobierno de Andrés
PASTRANA y las FARC-Ep: (1998-2002)
Camilo Leguízamo
Agosto 2002
205
Contratación pública en Colombia y teoría Económica.
Yuri Gorbaneff
Septiembre 2002.
206
Does planning pay to perform in infrastructure?
Deconstructing the babylon tower on the planning/
performance relationships in energy, telecommunications
and transport sectors – colombian case.
Daniel Torres Gracia
Septiembre 2002.
207
A dynamic analysis of household decision making in urban
Colombia, 1976-1998
Changes in household structure, human capital
and its returns, and female labor force participation .
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Jairo Núñez Méndez
Octubre 2002.
208
Inversión pública sectorial
y crecimiento
Económico: Una aproximación desde la
Metodología VAR.
Alvaro A. Perdomo S.
Octubre 2002.
209
Impacto macroeconómico y distributivo del Impuesto de
seguridad democrática.
Ömer Özak Muñoz.
Oscar Mauricio Valencia
Octubre 2002.
210
Empleo informal y evasión fiscal en Colombia.
Jairo A. Núñez Méndez
Octubre 2002.
211
Diagnóstico del programa de reinserción en Colombia:
mecanismos para incentivar la desmovilización voluntaria
individual.
Maria Eugenia Pinto B.
Andrés Vergara Ballén
Yilberto Lahuerta P.
Noviembre 2002.
212
Economías de escala en los hogares y pobreza.
Tesis para optar el título de Magíster en Teoría y
Política Económica de la Universidad Nacional
de Colombia.
Francisco Javier Lasso V.
Noviembre 2002.
213
Nueva metodología de Encuesta de hogares.
¿Más o menos desempleados?
Francisco Javier Lasso V.
Noviembre 2002.
214
Una aproximación de la Política Comercial Estratégica
para el ingreso de Colombia al ALCA.
Ricardo E. Rocha G..
Juan Ricardo Perilla
Ramiro López Soler
Diciembre 2002.
215
The political business cycle in Colombia
on the National and Regional level.
Allan Drazen
Marcela Eslava
University of Maryland
Enero 2003.
216
Balance macroeconómico de 2002 y
Perspectivas para 2003.
Dirección de Estudios
Económicos
Enero 2003.
217
Women workers in Bogotà ‘s Informal sector:
Gendered impact of structural adjustment
Policies in the 1990s.
Tesis para optar el título de Magíster en
Estudios de Desarrollo del Instituto de Estudios
Sociales de The Hague- Holanda.
Jairo G. Isaza Castro
Febrero 2003.
218
Determinantes de la duración del desempleo en
el área metropolitana de Cali 1988-1998.
(Documento elaborado por profesores del Departamento de Economía de la Universidad del Valle)
Carlos E. Castellar P.
José Ignacio Uribe G.
Marzo 2003.
219
Conflicto, violencia y actividad criminal en Colombia:
Un análisis espacial.
Fabio Sánchez Torres
Ana María Díaz
Michel Formisano
Marzo 2003.
220
Evaluating the impact of SENA on earnings and
Employment.
Alejandro Gaviria Uribe
Jairo A. Núñez Méndez
Abril 2003.
221
Un análisis de la relación entre inversión extranjera y
Comercio exterior en la economía colombiana.
Erika Bibiana Pedraza
Abril 2003.
ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA
No
222
Título
Free Trade Area of the Americas. An impact
Assessment for Colombia.
Autores
Fecha
Miles Kenneth. Light
Thomas Fox Rutherford
Abril 2003.