REGÍMENES CAMBIARIOS REGIONALES

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Capítulo IV
Regímenes cambiarios regionales: la
experiencia europea
Charles Wyplosz
1.
Introducción
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2.
La lógica de las paridades flexibles
a)
Elección del régimen
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Gráfico IV.1
REGÍMENES CAMBIARIOS OFICIALES SEGÚN EL FMI Y REGÍMENES OBSERVADOS
EN LA PRÁCTICA
(Porcentaje de todos los países)
Clasificación del FMI
Clasificación del LYS
Fuente: Levy-Yeyati y Sturzenegger (LYS), 2002.
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b)
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c)
Por qué es importante la estabilidad del tipo de cambio: el
caso europeo
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Cuadro IV.1
AÑO DE LIBERALIZACIÓN EN EUROPA DE LA POSGUERRA
Austria
Bélgica
Dinamarca
Finlandia
Francia
Alemania
Irlanda
Italia
Países Bajos
Noruega
Portugal
España
Suecia
Suiza
Reino Unido
Interno
Externo
1981
1978
1980
1970
1985
Ninguno
1969
1983
1981
1984
No disponible
1966
1983
1975
1971
No disponible
1990
1988
1989
1981
1992
1990
1986
1992
1992
1980
1979
Fuente: Controles cambiarios tomados de Bakker (1996), p. 220; topes crediticios tomados de Cottarelli y
otros (1986), apéndice no publicado.
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Gráfico IV.2
INFLACIÓN EN LA ZONA DE LA OCDE
(En porcentajes)
Fuente: FMI.
Nota: Por OCDE “no europea” se entiende Australia, Canadá, Japón, Nueva Zelandia, Suiza y Reino Unido.
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Gráfico IV.3
TIPOS DE CAMBIO REALES
(Promedio de la muestra=100)
Fuente: FMI.
Nota: Para la construcción de este índice se utiliza el índice de precios al consumidor.
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Cuadro IV.2
REALINEAMIENTOS DEL MTC
Fechas
24.9.79
Número de monedas involucradas
2
30.11.79
1
22.3.81
1
5.10.81
2
22.2.82 14.6.82
2
4
Fechas
21.3.83
Número de monedas involucradas
7a
18.5.83
7a
22.7.85
7a
7.4.86
5
4.8.86 12.1.87
1
3
Fechas
Número de monedas involucradas
14.9.92
3b
23.11.92
2
1.2.93
1
8.1.90
1
14.5.93
2
6.3.95
2
Fuente: Elaborado por los autores.
a
Se realinearon todas las monedas del MTC.
b
Además, dos monedas (la libra esterlina y la lira) abandonaron el MTC.
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Cuadro IV.3
INTERVENCIONES DEL MERCADO DE DIVISAS
(Miles de millones de dólares de los Estados Unidos)
1979-1982
1983-1985
1986-1987
1988-1989
En el margen
20,5
Dentro de los márgenes
29,2
En dólares de los Estados Unidos
139,4
15,4
48,6
78,4
22,3
113,7
53,7
0,9
32,4
29,5
1,7
0
18,9
3,3
0
5,4
0
0
12,4
Todas las monedas
Dentro del MTC
Bundesbank
Dentro del MTC
En el margen
Dentro de los márgenes
En dólares de los Estados Unidos
3,1
0
25,4
Fuente: Gros y Thygesen (1998).
Nota: Suma algebraica de las compras.
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Gráfico IV.4
TASAS DE BONOS DE TESORERÍA EN EUROPA
Fuente: FMI.
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5.
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egdXjgVYdYZbdhigVgfjZZah^hiZbVZjgdeZdhZ[jcYVZceg^cX^e^dhÄgbZh
n W^Zc gZXdcdX^Ydh# Edg ZhiVh gVodcZh! Xdchi^ijnZ jc egdnZXid fjZ edYg†V
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Bibliografía
7V``Zg! 6\Z ;#E# &..+! The Liberalization of Capital Movements in Europe, @ajlZg
6XVYZb^XEjWa^h]Zgh#
7VaYl^c!G#&..,!¹I]ZXVjhZhd[GZ\^dcVa^hbº!The World Economy'%,#
8Vakd! <# n 8# GZ^c]Vgi '%%%! ¹;ZVg d[ ÅdVi^c\º! Quarterly Journal of Economics
&&,'#
8diiVgZaa^!8#!<#<Vaa^!E#BVgjaadGZZYion<#E^iiVaj\V&.-+!¹BdcZiVgneda^Xni]gdj\]
XZ^a^c\hdcWVc`aZcY^c\º!Economic Policy (#
9Z <gVjlZ! E# &.--! ¹:mX]Vc\Z gViZ kdaVi^a^in VcY i]Z hadlYdlc ^c \gdli] ^c
^ciZgcVi^dcVaigVYZº!IMF Staff Papers (*#
9gVoZc!6#'%%%!Political Economy in Macroeconomics, Eg^cXZidcJc^kZgh^inEgZhh#
:^X]Zc\gZZc! 7# n 8]# Lneadho &..(! ¹I]Z jchiVWaZ :BHº! Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity &#
;ZaYhiZ^c! B# &..,! ¹I]Z eda^i^XVa ZXdcdbn d[ :jgdeZVc BdcZiVgn Jc^dc/ eda^i^XVa
gZVhdch[dgVcZXdcdb^Xa^VW^a^inº!Journal of Economic Perspectives&&)#
<gdh! 9# n C# I]n\ZhZc &..-! European Monetary Integration, HZ\jcYV ZY^X^‹c!
=Vgadl!6YY^hdcLZhaZnAdc\bVc#
=Zaa^lZaa! ?# ;# &..-! How Much Do National Borders Matter?, LVh]^c\idc! 9#8#!
7gdd`^c\h>chi^iji^dc#
@Vb^ch`n!<#n8#GZ^c]Vgi&...!¹I]ZIl^c8g^hZh/i]ZXVjhZhd[WVc`^c\VcYWVaVcXZ"
d["eVnbZcihegdWaZbhº!American Economic Review -.(#
@ZcZc! E# 7# &..*! Economic and Monetary Union in Europe: Moving Beyond
Maastricht,8VbWg^Y\ZJc^kZgh^inEgZhh#
@ZcZc! E# 7# n 9# GdYg^` &.-+! ¹BZVhjg^c\ VcY VcVano^c\ i]Z Z[[ZXih d[ h]dgi"iZgb
kdaVi^a^in^cgZVaZmX]Vc\ZgViZhº!Review of Economics and Statistics+-#
AZkn"NZnVi^! :# n ;# HijgoZcZ\\Zg '%%'! ¹8aVhh^[n^c\ ZmX]Vc\Z gViZ gZ\^bZh/ YZZYh
kZghjhldgYhº!Jc^kZgh^YVYIdgXjVidY^IZaaV#
BX@^ccdc! G# &.,.! Money in International Exchange, The Convertible Currency
System, Dm[dgYJc^kZgh^inEgZhh#
EVghaZn!9#nH#"?#LZ^'%%&!¹A^b^i^c\XjggZcXnkdaVi^a^inidhi^bjaViZ\ddYhbVg`Zi
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EZghhdc! I# n <# IVWZaa^c^ '%%%! Political Economics, Explaining Economic Policy,
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gZ^ciZgegZiVi^dcº!Quarterly Journal of Economics &&.&#
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Finance and Development(.)#
GdhZ!6#'%%%!¹DcZbdcZn!dcZbVg`Zi/Zhi^bVi^c\i]ZZ[[ZXid[XdbbdcXjggZcX^Zh
dcigVYZº!Economic Policy (%#
HVe^g!6#! E#6\]^dc! <# 7ZgidaV! B# =Zaal^\! ?# E^hVc^";Zggn! 9# GdhVi^! ?# K^ŠVah n =#
LVaaVXZ'%%(!Agenda de una Europa en crecimiento para que el sistema económico
de la UE funcione, 8db^h^‹c:jgdeZV#
Lneadho!8]#'%%'V!¹=dlg^h`n^hÄcVcX^Vaa^WZgVa^oVi^dc^ci]ZYZkZade^c\Xdjcig^Zh4º!
Comparative Economic Studies ))'"(#
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