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X1 =
X2 =
X3 =
X4 =
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X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
2005
141590
63,2
3,30
1009
1,6
5
2006
154666
63,4
3,27
669
2,0
6
2007
174212
63,5
3,13
560
1,8
6
2008
198773
63,8
2,93
659
5,8
7
2009
181121
72,3
3,01
734
2,9
7
2010
177218
76,6
2,83
546
1,5
8
2011
193079
76,6
2,75
422
3,4
9
2012
252286
81,6
2,64
344
3,7
10
2013
267724
83,1
2,70
543
2,8
11
2014
268643
83,2
2,84
675
3,2
11
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LUV`U JY[fYg]‚b XY` acXY`c YWcbcahf]Wc
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/01/15 Time: 00:07
Sample: 2005 2014
Included observations: 10
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
15462.07
558047.9
0.027707
0.9792
X1
-186.1670
433.7997
-0.429154
0.6899
X2
220.3824
1215.451
0.181317
0.8649
X3
16.61306
69.66835
0.238459
0.8232
X4
365.1321
999.8217
0.365197
0.7335
X5
29420.17
13196.51
2.229390
0.0897
R-squared
0.929213
Mean dependent var
200931.2
Adjusted R-squared
0.840729
S.D. dependent var
46043.84
S.E. of regression
18375.52
Akaike info criterion
22.75914
Sum squared resid
1.35E+09
Schwarz criterion
22.94069
Log likelihood
-107.7957
F-statistic
10.50150
Prob(F-statistic)
0.020391
Durbin-Watson stat
2.546809
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nrb prp qo^_^g^alobp pb^k c^jfif^obp kl
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bp p’kqlj^ nrb i^ mol_^_fifa^a ab abqb``f”k mlo
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bk`rbkqo^ bpqb pb`qlo bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab PrklEpqb bp rk `i^ol ifjfq^kqb m^o^ bi abp^ooliil abi
pb`qlo a^al nrb bk qlal bi jrkal bp i^ `^ifa^a
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qrofpjl pl_ob ilp fkdobplp abi m^’p bkcobkq^k
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pf bufpqfbo^ bpq^ jbqlalild’^ ^m^ob`bo’^k
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eb`el nrb i^ molar``f”k ab bpqb pb`qlo bp
rpr^ijbkqb kl q^kdf_ib+ `ljl bk qlal pbosf`flAp’+ bufpqbk obpqof``flkbp jbqlali”df`^p v ab
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i^ b`lklj’^Plo bpq^p o^wlkbp+ bk bpqb bpqrafl jlpqo^jlp rk^
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pb`qlo bk bi bjmibl v ilp fkdobplp ^ m^oqfo ab i^
l_pbos^`f”k ab ^idrklp a^qlp bufpqbkqbp- Ek
m^oqf`ri^o pb ^k^ifw^ i^ fkcloj^`f”k pl_ob bi d^pql
abi qrofpq^ buqo^kgbol bk bi Pbo• mr_if`^al mlo
Poljmbo• bk bi mbocfi abi qrofpq^ buqo^kgbol abi
^“l 1/02+ pfk qlj^o bk `rbkq^ bi d^pql bk
qo^kpmloqb fkqbok^`flk^i m^o^ iibd^o ^i Pbo•+
qbkbjlp nrb bi d^pql moljbafl ob^ifw^al mlo bi
qrofpq^ s^`^`flkfpq^ buqo^kgbol bk bi Pbo• crb ab
US$ 0+0/5 jfbkqo^p nrb bi d^pql af^ofl moljbafl
pb bpqfj^ bk US$ 027 a”i^obp ^jbof`^klpEk bpqb pbkqfal+ ^i jriqfmif`^o bi d^pql af^ofl mbo
`•mfq^ abi qrofpq^ buqo^kgbol mlo bi moljbafl ab
bpq^a’^ abi qrofpq^ bk Prkl+ l_qbkbjlp rk d^pql
mbo `•mfq^ moljbafl ab US$ 165-// rqfifw^alp
bk afsboplp d^pqlp molmflp ab i^ ^`qfsfa^a qro’pqf`^
`ljl+ elpmba^gb+ ^ifjbkq^`f”k+ qo^kpmloqb+
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LchU` XY [Ughc dYf W~d]hU XY` hif]ghU YlhfUb^Yfc Yb `U dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc
Turista Extranjero
USD
Gasto diario promedio US$
138,00
Promedio de estadía en Puno
2
Total Gasto Per cápita US$
276
>iYbhY5 Pbocfi abi qrofpq^ buqo^kgbol | PROMPER•; 1/02
Clk i^ molvb``f”k ab ^oof_lp ab qrofpq^p
buqo^kgbolp ^ i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl mlabjlp
`^i`ri^o bi fk`objbkql abi d^pql ^kr^i molvb`q^al
m^o^ ilp mo”ufjlp ^“lp `ljl obpriq^al abi
fk`objbkql ab i^ abj^ka^ abi molar`ql qro’pqf`l
ab i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ jriqfmif`^kal bi k•jbol
qlq^i ab ^oof_lp ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ Prkl
mlo bi moljbafl ab d^pql mbo `•mfq^ ab `^a^ qrofpq^
bk Prkl+ `lk il `r^i l_qbkbjlp bi d^pql ^kr^i
ab ilp ^“lp m^p^alp v bi d^pql ^kr^i molvb`q^al
ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp nrb `ljl obpriq^al pb
bpmbo^ nrb m^o^ bi ^“l 1/10 qbkd^jlp fkdobplp
_orqlp mlo US$ 0/6{486+/71 jfiilkbp 'T^_i^ 3(-
LUV`U /
?Ughc UbiU` XY `cg hif]ghUg YlhfUb^Yfcg Yb `U dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc
Años
proyectados
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total arribos
a Puno
277634
296336
315038
333739
352441
371143
389845
Total Gasto
Percápita
276
276
276
276
276
276
276
Total gasto
anual
76627012 81788708 86950378 92112047 97273716 102435385 107597082
>iYbhY5 DIRCETUR | Prkl; 1/04
Db ^`rboal ^ ilp obpriq^alp l_qbkfalp abi d^pql
qlq^i ^kr^i ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk i^
molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ mlabjlp `^i`ri^o bi fkdobpl
_orql mbo `mfq^ ^kr^i ab i^ ml_i^`f”k ab i^
molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ afsfafbkal bi d^pql qlq^i ^kr^i
0/3
ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk Prkl bkqob bi
k•jbol ab e^_fq^kqbp ab i^ molsfk`f^ `lk il nrb
l_qbkbjlp rk fkdobpl moljbafl molvb`q^al
^kr^i ab US$ 322 mlo e^_fq^kqb m^o^ bi ^“l 1/10+
nrb bp prmboflo ^ i^ ab ilp ^“lp m^p^alp+ fkdobplp
ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(-
_orqlp nrb pb obcibg^k bk i^ jrbpqo^ ab pfdklp ab
ofnrbw^ b`lk”jf`^ ab ilp bjmobp^oflp abi pb`qlo
qrofpjl+ mrbpql nrb plk ilp afob`qlp _bkbcf`f^oflp
ab bpq^ ^`qfsfa^a 'T^_i^ 4(-
LUV`U 0
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Años
proyectados
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total gasto
anual turistas
extranjero
76627012
81788708
86950378
92112047
97273716
102435385
107597082
Población de
la provincia
Puno
248377
248377
248377
248377
248377
248377
248377
Ingreso
percápita
promedio
proyectado
309
329
350
371
392
412
433
>iYbhY5 INEI | Prkl; 1/04Rbpmb`ql ^i bjmibl dbkbo^al mlo i^ ^`qfsfa^a
qro’pqf`^+ ab ^`rboal ^ ilp bpqraflp ob^ifw^alp mlo
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ab •Ei Lif]gac Yb Y` HYfƒ5 HYfgdYWh]jUg XY
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bpqfj^`flkbp ab i^ fksbpqfd^`f”k jbk`flk^a^+ mlo
`^a^ 0/ qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp nrb fkdobp^k ^i m^’p+
bufpqbk 4 mrbpqlp ab qo^_^gl afob`q^jbkqb
obi^`flk^alp bk bi pb`qlo qrofpjl v mlo `^a^ US$
0/+/// nrb fkdobp^k `ljl afsfp^p mlo qrofpjl
buqo^kgbol+ pb dbkbo^ bk bi m^’p rklp 3 mrbpqlp
ab qo^_^gl+ `lk il `r^i ebjlp e^ii^al k•jbol ab
bjmiblp dbkbo^alp ^kr^ijbkqb mlo ilp qrofpq^p
buqo^kgbolp bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ afsfafbkal
bi k•jbol ^kr^i ab ^oof_lp ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp
bkqob dormlp ab 0/ qrofpq^p `lk il `r^i l_qbkbjlp
rk moljbafl ab 27+873 dormlp m^o^ bi ^“l 1/10
nrb jriqfmif`^alp mlo bi k•jbol ab bjmiblp
dbkbo^alp '4( mlo `^a^ dorml ab qrofpq^p qbkbjlp
nrb m^o^ bpb ^“l pb molvb`q^k 083+811 bjmiblp
^kr^ijbkqb 'T^_i^ 5(-
LUV`U 1
=ad`Ycg [YbYfUXcg dcf Uff]Vcg XY hif]ghUg YlhfUb^Yfcg U Hibc
Años proyectados
2015
2016
277634
296336
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Promedio
27763
29634
31504
33374
35244
37114
38984
Empleos
generados
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
138817
148168
Total arribos a
Puno
Grupo de turistas
Total empleos
generados
anualmente
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
315038 333739 352441 371143 389845
157519 166870 176221 185571 194922
>iYbhY5 OIT; 1/04-
ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(-
0/4
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bjmibl mlo ilp fkdobplp ab afsfp^p ab qrofpjl
buqo^kgbol ^ i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl pb l_qfbkb
jbaf^kqb i^ afsfpf”k ab abi d^pql ^kr^i ab ilp
qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl bkqob
ilp US$ 0/+/// nrb dbkbo^k ilp 3 mrbpqlp ab
qo^_^gl `lk il nrb l_qbkbjlp rk moljbafl ab
US$ 0/+65/ m^o^ bi ^“l 1/10 nrb jriqfmif`^alp
mlo bi k•jbol ab bjmiblp dbkbo^alp qbkbjlp
32+/28 bjmiblp molvb`q^alp m^o^ bpb jfpjl ^“l
'T^_i^ 6(-
LUV`U 2
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Años
proyectados
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total gasto
7662701 817887 869503 921120 972737 1024353 10759708
anual turistas
2
08
78
47
16
85
2
extranjero
Miles de
dólares
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
Promedio
7663
8179
8695
9211
9727
10244
10760
Empleos
generados
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Total
empleos
generados
30651
32715
34780
36845
38909
40974
43039
>iYbhY5 OIT; 1/04Ek `lkpb`rbk`f^ pl_ob i^ molvb``f”k ab
dbkbo^`f”k qlq^i ab bjmiblp afob`qlp+ fkafob`qlp
b fkar`falp `ljl obpriq^al abi ^oof_l v d^pql
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ab Prkl+ pb qfbkb molvb`q^al nrb m^o^ bi ^“l 1/10
pb dbkbo^o•k 126+ 850 bjmiblp+ ^ `lkpb`rbk`f^
0/5
ab i^ ^jmif^`f”k ab i^ lcboq^ qro’pqf`^ fkkls^a^+
afcbobk`f^a^ v ab `^ifa^a abi molar`ql qro’pqf`l
ab i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ nrb dbkbo^ j^vlo
abj^ka^ ab qrofpjl buqo^kgbol v mlo il q^kql bi
fk`objbkql bk bi d^pql qro’pqf`l 'T^_i^ 7(-
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LUV`U 3
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dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc)
Años proyectados
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total empleo por
turismo en Puno
16946
8
18088
3
19229
9
20371
4
21513
0
22654
6
23796
1
>iYbhY5 OIT; 1/04;GF;DMKAGF=K
L^ lcboq^ ^`qr^i ab ilp molar`qlp qro’pqf`lp pfdrb
pfbkal bp`^p^ v kl afsbopfcf`^a^ l bpq•k bk
mol`bpl ab abp^ooliil `ljl i^p mbk’kpri^p ab
C^m^`ef`^ v Cer`rfql+ pfbkal ^•k ilp molar`qlp
qro’pqf`lp qo^af`flk^ibp `ljl Uolp+ T^nrfib+
Aj^kq^kf v Sfiirpq^kf ilp j•p lcboq^alp mlo bi
pb`qlo bjmobp^of^i- L^p mofk`fm^ibp `^rp^p nrb
bumif`^k bi _^gl fk`objbkql bk i^ abj^ka^ ab
qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl plk9
i^ `ob^`f”k b fkkls^`f”k ab krbslp molar`qlp
qro’pqf`lp mrafbkal fk`objbkq^o bk 18+31/
qrofpq^p ^i ^“l pf pb lcob`bk krbslp molar`qlp
qro’pqf`lp qbkfbkal bpqob`e^ obi^`f”k `lk i^
abj^ka^+ pbdrfa^ mlo i^ fkci^`f”k b`lk”jf`^ abi
m^’p nrb ^rjbkq^o’^ bi mlabo ^anrfpfqfsl ab ilp
qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk bi Pbo• bk 254 ^oof_lp ab
qrofpq^p; i^ fksbopf”k buqo^kgbo^ afob`q^ bk
bjmobp^p ab qrofpjl+ `rv^ fjmloq^k`f^ o^af`^ bk
bi kl ^oof_l ab ,075 qrofpq^p ^i ^“l+ ab_fbkal
moljlsbopb i^ fksbopf”k mofs^a^ bk Prkl abpab
i^ dbpqf”k m•_if`^ m^o^ obsboqfo bpqb obpriq^al
kbd^qfslDb j^kbo^ dbkbo^i+ i^ molvb``f”k ab i^ abj^ka^
ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp klp jrbpqo^ obpriq^alp
mlpfqfslp v ^ibkq^alobp m^o^ i^p fksbopflkbp crqro^p
bk bi pb`qlo qrofpjl mlo i^ mlpf_ib sfpfq^ ab
278+734 qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^i ^“l 1/10+ qbkfbkal
rk fk`objbkql abi 57+8% ab i^ abj^ka^ ^`qr^i;
mlo q^kql+ bi bjmibl q^j_f‘k pb fk`objbkq^o
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