apertura y crecimiento - E-Prints Complutense

6HULH(FRQRPtD,QWHUQDFLRQDO
9LFHQWH'RQRVR
9tFWRU0DUWtQ
6HSWLHPEUH :25.,1*3$3(56
(;3257$&,21(6<&5(&,0,(172
(&2120,&2 (/&$62'((63$f$
'2&80(1726'(75$%$-2
'7(,
(;3257$&,21(6<&5(&,0,(172
(&21¾0,&2(/&$62'((63$f$
9LFHQWH'RQRVR
9tFWRU0DUWtQ
6HSWLHPEUH
&DWHGUiWLFRGH(FRQRPtD$SOLFDGD8QLYHUVLGDG&RPSOXWHQVHGH0DGULG
YGRQRVR#FFHHXFPHV
3URIHVRUGH(FRQRPtD$SOLFDGD8QLYHUVLGDG5H\-XDQ&DUORVGH0DGULG
YPEDUURVR#IFMVXUMFHV
6HDJUDGHFHQORVFRPHQWDULRVTXHVHTXLHUDQGLULJLUDORVDXWRUHV
'HSDUWDPHQWRGH$QiOLVLV(FRQyPLFR,QWHUQDFLRQDO
,QVWLWXWR&RPSOXWHQVHGH(VWXGLRV,QWHUQDFLRQDOHV
)LQFD0iV)HUUp(GLI$
&DPSXVGH6RPRVDJXDV0DGULG
7HO
)D[
0DLOLFHL#VLVXFPHV
:HEZZZXFPHVLQIRLFHL
([SRUWDFLRQHV\&UHFLPLHQWR(FRQyPLFRHO&DVRGH(VSDxD
9LFHQWH'RQRVR
9tFWRU0DUWtQ
'RFXPHQWRGH7UDEDMR
6HULH(FRQRPtD,QWHUQDFLRQDO'7(,
6HSWLHPEUH
,1',&(
SiJLQDV
,QWURGXFFLyQ
0DUFRWHyULFR
0DUFRHPStULFR
$QiOLVLVGHOFDVRHVSDxRO
$QiOLVLVXQLYDULDQWH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ\FDXVDOLGDG
'LVFXVLyQ\FRQFOXVLRQHV
5HIHUHQFLDVELEOLRJUiILFDV
$SHQGLFHV
&XDGURGHOLWHUDWXUDHPStULFD
*UiILFRVDQiOLVLVXQLYDULDQWH
,1752'8&&,¾1
(O SUHVHQWH WUDEDMR DQDOL]D OD UHODFLyQ HQWUH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV \ HO FUHFLPLHQWR
HFRQyPLFRHQ(VSDxD3DUDHOORHQSULPHUOXJDUVHGLVFXWHHOPDUFRWHyULFRGHODQiOLVLV
D FRQWLQXDFLyQVHH[DPLQDODOLWHUDWXUDHPStULFDUHODFLRQDGDFRQHOWHPDHQWHUFHUOXJDU
VH FRQWUDVWD VL H[LVWH R QR UHODFLyQ FDXVDO HQWUH ODV YHQWDV H[WHULRUHV GH (VSDxD \ VX
SURFHVRGHFUHFLPLHQWRHQFXDUWROXJDUVHH[WUDHQDOJXQDVFRQFOXVLRQHVVHGLVFXWHQORV
UHVXOWDGRVREWHQLGRV\VHFRPHQWDQODVIXWXUDVOtQHDVGHDYDQFHGHODLQYHVWLJDFLyQ
0$5&27(¾5,&2
3RFDV SURSRVLFLRQHV WHyULFDV JR]DQ GH XQ HVWDWXWR WDQ VyOLGR HQWUH ORV
HFRQRPLVWDVDFDGpPLFRVFRPRODTXHGHILHQGHODVERQGDGHVGHOFRPHUFLR LQWHUQDFLRQDO
SXHVVHDUJXPHQWDTXHODOLEHUWDGFRPHUFLDOSHUPLWHDORVFRQVXPLGRUHVGLVIUXWDUGHXQD
RIHUWD PiV DPSOLD \ EDUDWD GH ELHQHV HQ WDQWR TXH OD UHDVLJQDFLyQ GH ORV IDFWRUHV
SURGXFWLYRV IUXWR GH OD DOWHUDFLyQ SURYRFDGD HQ ORV SUHFLRV UHODWLYRV SHUPLWH D ORV
SURGXFWRUHV DOFDQ]DU XQ ySWLPR HQ OD SURGXFFLyQ 'H HVWH PRGR HQ XQ PXQGR GH
DMXVWHV HFRQyPLFRV LQVWDQWiQHRV \ PDJQLWXGHV HVWiWLFDV SRFD GXGD FDEH GH TXH OD
SROtWLFD HFRQyPLFD D VHJXLU VHUtD OD DSHUWXUD XQLODWHUDO H LQFRQGLFLRQDO DO FRPHUFLR
H[WHULRU(VWDFRQYLFFLyQVHLQVWDOySURQWRHQHOQ~FOHRSULQFLSDOGHODQiOLVLVHFRQyPLFR
\FRPRKDSXHVWRGHPDQLILHVWR'RXJODV,UZLQJ7RGRVORVSULQFLSDOHVHFRQRPLVWDVGH
ODSULPHUDPLWDGGHOVLJOR;,;-DPHV0LOO'DYLG5LFDUGR5REHUW7RUUHQV-RKQ6XWDUW
0LOO-RKQ5DPVD\0F&XOORFK1DVVDX6HQLRUSDUDQRPEUDUVyORDORVPiVHPLQHQWHV
HVFULELHURQ FRQ GLYHUVRV JUDGRV GH VRILVWLFDFLyQ HQ IDYRU GHO OLEUH FRPHUFLR \ IXHURQ
SUiFWLFDPHQWH XQiQLPHV HQ FRQGHQDU ORV DUDQFHOHV SURWHFFLRQLVWDV IUHQWH D OD
LPSRUWDFLyQ ,UZLQJ 8QD FRQYLFFLyQ TXH VH KD PDQWHQLGR FRQ QRWDEOH
UREXVWH] KDVWD OD DFWXDOLGDG FRPR XQD GH ODV JXtDV PiV VyOLGDV GH OD SROtWLFD
HFRQyPLFD
1R REVWDQWH HVD SULYLOHJLDGD VLWXDFLyQ QR KD LPSHGLGR VLQR WRGR OR FRQWUDULR
TXHDORODUJRGHGpFDGDVHOOLEUHFRPHUFLRKD\DFRQVWLWXLGRKDVWDHOGtDGHKR\XQRGH
ORVWySLFRVPiVDSDVLRQDGRVGHGLVFXVLyQGHORVHFRQRPLVWDV8QDSDUWHLPSRUWDQWHGH
HVWD SDVLyQ KD GHULYDGR GH ODV LPSOLFDFLRQHV SROtWLFDV TXH VH GHGXFHQ GH ODV GLYHUVDV
LQWHUSUHWDFLRQHVGRFWULQDOHVHQWRUQRDOFRPHUFLRLQWHUQDFLRQDO(QODVGpFDGDVUHFLHQWHV
HVDVGLVFXVLRQHVVHKDQUHIHULGRVREUHWRGRDODFRQH[LyQHQWHFRPHUFLR\FUHFLPLHQWR
HQHOPDUFRGHODVSROtWLFDVGHDSHUWXUDSURPRYLGDVSRUODVLQVWLWXFLRQHVPXOWLODWHUDOHV
$MXVWDGDV ODV FXHQWDV FRQ OD SROtWLFD GH VXVWLWXFLyQ GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV FRQ XQ EDODQFH
FRQGHQDWRULR TXH KR\ GtD HPSLH]D D UHYLVDUVH 5RGULN %UXWRQ ODV
RULHQWDFLRQHV DELHUWDV DO H[WHULRU VH IXHURQ FRQVROLGDQGR FRPR HO SXQWR GH YLVWD
SHUWLQHQWH GH DFDGpPLFRV SROtWLFRV H LQVWLWXFLRQHV PXOWLODWHUDOHV KDVWD FRQVHJXLU HO
HVWDWXWRGHGRFWULQDRILFLDOLQVHUWDHQHOFRQVHQVRGH:DVKLQJWRQSDUDODVHFRQRPtDV
HQ GHVDUUROOR 3HUR WDPELpQ UHVXOWD FDGD YH] PiV IXHUWH HQ HO PDUFR GH ODV QXHYDV
WHRUtDV GHO FRPHUFLR HO DFHQWR SXHVWR HQ OD DSHUWXUD H[WHULRU SDUD ODV HFRQRPtDV
GHVDUUROODGDV HQ FXDQWR IXHQWH SHUPDQHQWH GH XQ VXSHULRU UHQGLPLHQWR HFRQyPLFR
PHGLGRSRUODWDVDGHFUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%DODUJRSOD]R:LQWHUV
(OFDVR DIDYRUGHOOLEUHFRPHUFLRVHWRUQDPiVIUiJLOFXDQGRDEDQGRQDPRVORV
VXSXHVWRVDQDOtWLFRVGHODFRPSHWHQFLDSHUIHFWDHQXQPDUFRGHHVWiWLFDFRPSDUDWLYDH
LQWHQWDPRV DFHUFDU OD UHIOH[LyQ D ODV FRQGLFLRQHV LPSHUIHFWDV GHO PXQGR UHDO (Q HVWH
FRQWH[WR VH KDQ GHVDUUROODGR DUJXPHQWRV TXH PXHVWUDQ TXH OD OLEHUWDG FRPSOHWD GHO
FRPHUFLRSXHGHQRVHUODPHMRUHVWUDWHJLD(QWUHHVWDVFLUFXQVWDQFLDVFDEHPHQFLRQDUOD
SRVLELOLGDG GH DOWHUDU PHGLDQWH DUDQFHOHV ORV WpUPLQRV GHO LQWHUFDPELR HO GHVHR GH
LQGXVWULDOL]DFLyQ\HODUJXPHQWRGHODSURWHFFLyQDODVLQGXVWULDVQDFLHQWHVODSUHVHQFLD
GHHFRQRPtDVGHHVFDODRORVHIHFWRVDGYHUVRVVREUHHOELHQHVWDU(QFXDOTXLHUFDVR\
HVSHFLDOPHQWHDFRQVHFXHQFLDGHOGHEDWHVREUHODREUDGHOUXPDQR0LKDwO0DQRwOHVFX \
VX DUJXPHQWR GHO GLIHUHQFLDO GH VDODULRV HQ HO LQWHULRU GH XQ SDtV VH H[SHULPHQWy XQ
LPSRUWDQWH DYDQFH GH OD PDQR GH DXWRUHV FRPR 0HDGH R %KDJZDWL TXH SHUPLWLy
VHSDUDUODGHIHQVDGHOFRPHUFLROLEUHGHODGHOODLVVH]IDLUH\TXHD\XGyHVWDEOHFHUXQD
MHUDUTXtD GH SROtWLFDV SDUD HQIUHQWDU FLHUWRV IDOORV GHO PHUFDGR SRU HMHPSOR OD QR
LJXDODFLyQ GH ORV VDODULRV HQWUH ODV GLIHUHQWHV LQGXVWULDV GH XQ SDtV R HO GHVHR GH
LQGXVWULDOL]DFLyQPHGLDQWHODXWLOL]DFLyQGHPHGLGDVHLQVWUXPHQWRVTXHQRLPSOLFDUDQ
REVWDFXOL]DUHOOLEUHFRPHUFLR
,JXDOPHQWHORVDUJXPHQWRVDIDYRUGHOOLEUHFRPHUFLRVHWRUQDQPiVFRPSOHMRV
HQXQDSHUVSHFWLYDGLQiPLFD3XHVHQHIHFWRORTXHGHEHSUREDUVHHVTXHODDSHUWXUDDO
FRPHUFLRLQWHUQDFLRQDOVHDFRPSDxDDODUJRSOD]RGHXQDWDVDVXSHULRUGHFUHFLPLHQWR
0LHQWUDV TXH ODV JDQDQFLDV HVWiWLFDV GH XQD VROD YH] VRQ UHODWLYDPHQWH IiFLOHV GH
HVWDEOHFHU QR RFXUUH OR PLVPR FRQ ODV GLQiPLFDV TXH VH HVWiQ FRPHQWDQGR /RV
9pDVH,UZLQJSS
DUJXPHQWRVWHyULFRVDIDYRUGHGLFKDUHODFLyQSRVLWLYDGHODUJRSOD]RVHSXHGHQUHVXPLU
GHVGHODSHUVSHFWLYDGHODRIHUWD\GHVGHODSHUVSHFWLYDGHODGHPDQGD
&RPHQ]DQGRSRUODSHUVSHFWLYDGHODRIHUWDHODUJXPHQWRSULQFLSDOGLVFXUUHDVt
HOFRPHUFLRLQWHUQDFLRQDOLQIOX\HSRVLWLYDPHQWHHQODSURGXFWLYLGDGGHORVIDFWRUHVHQHO
ODUJR SOD]R OR TXH VH WUDGXFH HQ XQ FUHFLPLHQWR VRVWHQLGR VXSHULRU GH DTXHOORV SDtVHV
DELHUWRV DO FRPHUFLR HQ FRPSDUDFLyQ FRQ ORV TXH QR OR HVWiQ 'H DTXt VH VLJXHQ GRV
HIHFWRV XQR TXH HO FRPHUFLR DFHOHUD OD WDVD GH FUHFLPLHQWR \ GRV TXH HO FRPHUFLR
GHVSOD]DHQHOWLHPSRHOHVWDGRHVWDFLRQDULRHQHOTXHGHRWURPRGRLQFXUULUtDHOSDtVHQ
XQ SOD]R PiV R PHQRV FRUWR (VWD DUJXPHQWDFLyQ SXHGH OLJDUVH GH PRGR GLUHFWR R
LQGLUHFWR FRQ ORV FUHFLPLHQWRV GH OD SURGXFWLYLGDG 8QD OLJD]yQ GLUHFWD HV OD TXH VH
HVWDEOHFH D WUDYpV GH ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV GH ELHQHV GH HTXLSR \ RWURV LQSXWV QHFHVDULRV
SDUDXQDPHMRUDGHODSURGXFWLYLGDGXQDUJXPHQWRTXHHQWUHORVFOiVLFRVGHIHQGLy\D
HQ-DPHV0LOOFXDQGRDILUPyTXHORLPSRUWDQWHGHOFRPHUFLRQRHUDQ ORVELHQHV
TXHVHGDEDQHVWRHVODSHUVSHFWLYDGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVVLQRORVTXHVHUHFLEtDQHVWR
HV ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV ,UZLQ S 0RGHUQDPHQWH DXWRUHV FRPR 'DQL 5RGULN
KDQ DUJXPHQWDGR TXH OD DSHUWXUD FRPHUFLDO HQ FXDQWR HVWUDWHJLD GH GHVDUUROOR
HQFXHQWUDVXMXVWLILFDFLyQSUHFLVDPHQWHSRUHOODGRGHODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVTXHSXHGHQVHU
GH FXDWUR WLSRV LPSRUWDFLRQHV GH LGHDV GH LQVWLWXFLRQHV GH FDSLWDO \ GH ELHQHV \
VHUYLFLRV5RGULNS\VV(QQXHVWURFRQWH[WRVRQHVWDV~OWLPDVODVTXHQRV
LQWHUHVDQHVSHFLDOPHQWHEDMRODVGRVVLJXLHQWHVPRGDOLGDGHVLPSRUWDFLRQHVGHELHQHV
GH SURGXFFLyQ GH WHFQRORJtD VXSHULRU D OD QDFLRQDO TXH KDFHQ D OD LQYHUVLyQ PiV
SURGXFWLYD \ UHQWDEOH \ ELHQHV LQWHUPHGLRV QHFHVDULRV SDUD GHVDUUROODU HO SURFHVR
SURGXFWLYR
2WUDV YtDV GH DIHFWDU OD RIHUWD GH XQ SDtV PHGLDQWH HO LQFUHPHQWR GH OD
SURGXFWLYLGDGGHORVIDFWRUHVVRQPiVLQGLUHFWDVSHURSRWHQFLDOPHQWHLPSRUWDQWHV$Vt
HOLQFUHPHQWRGHORVYRO~PHQHVGHFRPHUFLRSRWHQFLDODVHFRQRPtDVGLQiPLFDVDWUDYpV
GH XQ SURFHVR GH DSUHQGL]DMH SRU VX SDUWH OD QHFHVLGDG GH FRPSHWLU HQ ORV PHUFDGRV
LQWHULRUHV\H[WHULRUHVFRQQXHYRV\PHMRUHVULYDOHVHVWLPXODORVHVIXHU]RVWHFQROyJLFRV
\ ORV JDVWRV GHVWLQDGRV D ORV SURFHVRV GH ,'L LJXDOPHQWH OD DSHUWXUD FRPHUFLDO
UHIXHU]D ORV HIHFWRV GH GLIXVLyQ \ GHVERUGDPLHQWR GH OD WHFQRORJtD IRUiQHD VREUH HO
PHUFDGR QDFLRQDO \ ILQDOPHQWH FDEH HQXPHUDU TXH ORV HIHFWRV GH OD SUHVLyQ
FRPSHWLWLYD H[WHULRU FRQWULEX\HQ D OD VXSUHVLyQ GH LQFHQWLYRV DGPLQLVWUDWLYRV SDUD
EXVFDUUHQWDVHQYH]GHHILFLHQFLD\DODUHGXFFLyQGHODLQHILFLHQFLD;TXHDIHFWDDOD
HFRQRPtD\DODVHPSUHVDVQDFLRQDOHV /DSHUVSHFWLYDGHODGHPDQGDDYHFHVSRVWHUJDGDHQVXFRQVLGHUDFLyQD\XGDD
FRPSOHWDU HO HOHQFR GH SRVLEOHV EHQHILFLRV GH OD DSHUWXUD DO FRPHUFLR LQWHUQDFLRQDO 'HVGHHVWHSULVPDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVMXHJDQXQGREOH\GHVWDFDGRSDSHOHQSURPRYHUXQ
PD\RU FUHFLPLHQWR VRVWHQLGR D ODUJR SOD]R 8QD SULPHUD IXQFLyQ WLHQH TXH YHU FRQ HO
KHFKR GH FRQVWLWXLUVH HQ HO PRWRU GH OD GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD XQD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD
SDUWLFXODUPHQWH LQWHUHVDQWH HQ HO FDVR GH XQ SDtV SHTXHxR FRQ PHUFDGRV UHVWULQJLGRV
SXHVWR TXH FRPR SUXHEDQ ORV GDWRV HVWDGtVWLFRV HO FRPHUFLR PXQGLDO KD FUHFLGR HQ
SURPHGLR GXUDQWH ODV ~OWLPDV GpFDGDV HQ WRUQR DO IUHQWH D XQ DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH GHO SURGXFWR 'H HVWH PRGR HO FUHFLPLHQWR GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV
DUUDVWUDDODGHPDQGD\HVWDDVXYH]SURYRFDXQFUHFLPLHQWRVRVWHQLGRHQODPHGLGD
HQTXHODWDVDIXWXUDHVHQGyJHQDFRQUHVSHFWRDODWDVDDFWXDOGHFUHFLPLHQWR
3HUR DGHPiV ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV FXPSOHQ HQ HVWD WUDGLFLyQ WHyULFD XQVHJXQGR
SDSHOFUXFLDOSRUORTXHVXIRPHQWRHVLPSRUWDQWH\HQPXFKRVFDVRVFRPRHOHVSDxRO
LPSUHVFLQGLEOHSDUDHOFUHFLPLHQWRDODUJRSOD]RVRQIXHQWHGHGLYLVDVSDUDILQDQFLDUODV
LPSRUWDFLRQHV QHFHVDULDV VLQ LQFXUULU HQ GpILFLW LQVRVWHQLEOHV TXH REOLJDQ D IUHQDU GH
WLHPSRHQWLHPSRHOFUHFLPLHQWR8QDIXQFLyQTXHSRURWUDSDUWHSHUPLWHUHFXSHUDUOD
SHUVSHFWLYDGHODFRQWULEXFLyQGHFLVLYDTXHUHDOL]DQODVLPSRUWDFLRQHV HQHOIRPHQWRGH
ODSURGXFWLYLGDGGHORVIDFWRUHV2GLFKRGHRWUDPDQHUDDXQTXHDYHFHVODSHUVSHFWLYD
GH OD RIHUWD \ OD GHPDQGD VH SODQWHDQ FRPR ULYDOHV OD UHDOLGDG HV TXH SXHGHQ
HQWHQGHUVHFRQLQGXGDEOHJDQDQFLDGHSRGHUH[SOLFDWLYRFRPRFRPSOHPHQWDULDV
$O ILQDOL]DU HVWH EUHYH UHFRUULGR SRU ORV FDQDOHV WHyULFRV TXH OLJDQ FRPHUFLR
H[WHULRU \ FUHFLPLHQWR VH KDQ H[SXHVWR GLYHUVDV UD]RQHV TXH DYDODQ OD SUHVXQFLyQ GH
TXHHOFRPHUFLRHVWiOLJDGRDXQPHMRUFRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHODWDVDGHFUHFLPLHQWRHQ HO
ODUJRSOD]R&RQWRGRORVHFRQRPLVWDVVRQFRQVFLHQWHVGHODVODJXQDV\GHELOLGDGHVTXH
SUHVHQWD HVD OLJD]yQ WHyULFD &RPR UHVXPHQ GH HOOR VLUYDQ ODV VLJXLHQWHV SDODEUDV
3XHVWRTXHODWHRUtDQRSXHGHUHVROYHUFODUDPHQWHODFXHVWLyQGHVLODOLEHUDOL]DFLyQGHO
FRPHUFLR R PiV HQ JHQHUDO OD LQWHJUDFLyQ HFRQyPLFD HVWLPXOD HO FUHFLPLHQWR
HFRQyPLFR SDUD WRGRV \ FDGD XQR GH ORV SDtVHV SDVDUHPRV UHYLVWD DKRUD D ORV GDWRV
HPStULFRV SDUD REWHQHU QXHYDV RULHQWDFLRQHV 20& S 3RU WDQWR FRPR VH
20&FDSž9pDVHWDPELpQ%LUG\5DMDQ
9pDQVHSRUHMHPSORORVWUDEDMRVGH$ORQVR\+HUUDQ]\7LUDGR/HyQ
/HGHVPDDE0DXOHyQR6iQFKH]/DUULyQSRUFLWDU
DOJXQRVUHIHULGRVD(VSDxD
H[SRQGUiPiVDGHODQWHHODQiOLVLVHPStULFRGHODUHODFLyQHQWUHFRPHUFLR\FUHFLPLHQWR
FREUD XQD QRWDEOH LPSRUWDQFLD SDUD GHVHQWUDxDU ORV PHFDQLVPRV SRU ORV TXH GLFKD
UHODFLyQVHHVWDEOHFH\RSHUD
0$5&2(03º5,&2
&RPR VH KD QRWDGR DQWHV OD DPELJHGDG TXH DIHFWD DO SODQWHDPLHQWR WHyULFR
REOLJDDSRQHUHODFHQWRWDPELpQHQORVDQiOLVLVHPStULFRV'RVPRWLYRVKDQDYLYDGRHO
LQWHUpV SRU HVWRV HVWXGLRV XQR SULPHUR HVSHFXODWLYR HV OD DFHSWDFLyQ TXH KD
HQFRQWUDGRGHVGHPHGLDGRVGHORVDxRVRFKHQWDOD QXHYDWHRUtDGHOFUHFLPLHQWRFRQVX
SURPHVD GH XQD H[SOLFDFLyQ PiV VDWLVIDFWRULD GH OD GLQiPLFD HFRQyPLFD FRQILQDGD
KDVWDODIHFKDHQODVIURQWHUDVGHXQSURJUHVRWpFQLFRH[yJHQRLQH[SOLFDGR\SRUWDQWR
RSDFR D ODV LQWHUYHQFLRQHV GH OD SROtWLFD (Q OD PHGLGD HQ TXH OD WHRUtD KD LGR
DUJXPHQWDQGR HO FDUiFWHU HQGyJHQR GHO SURJUHVR WpFQLFR \ GHO FUHFLPLHQWR KD LGR
WDPELpQDXPHQWDQGRHOLQWHUpVSRUFRQWUDVWDUORVHIHFWRVGHODVGLIHUHQWHVGRWDFLRQHVGH
ORVSDtVHV\GHODVGLYHUVDVSROtWLFDVHQFDPLQDGDVDHVWLPXODUHOGHVDUUROORFXDOLILFDFLyQ
GH OD PDQR GH REUD LQYHUVLyQ HQ ,'L HTXLSDPLHQWR HQ LQIUDHVWUXFWXUDV GLVHxR
LQVWLWXFLRQDO
8QVHJXQGRPRWLYRSUiFWLFRKDVLGRODLQVLVWHQFLDGHORVSURJUDPDVGHO%DQFR
0XQGLDO \ GH RWUDV LPSRUWDQWHV LQVWLWXFLRQHV PXOWLODWHUDOHV HQ OD VXSHULRULGDG GH ODV
SROtWLFDVGHSURPRFLyQGHH[SRUWDFLRQHV\GHODRULHQWDFLyQH[WHULRU SRUFRQWUDVWHFRQ
OD VXVWLWXFLyQ GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV GH ODV GpFDGDV GHO \ HQ FXDQWR SDODQFDV SDUD
SURPRYHUHOFUHFLPLHQWRHOGHVDUUROOR \ODOXFKDFRQWUDODSREUH]D(VWDSRVWXUDGHODV
LQVWLWXFLRQHVPXOWLODWHUDOHVKDVHUYLGRSDUDDOHQWDUODUHDOL]DFLyQGHQXPHURVRVHVWXGLRV
HPStULFRV DXQTXH VXV UHVXOWDGRV GLVWDQ PXFKR GH VHU FRQFOX\HQWHV R FRLQFLGHQWHV (V
GHFLU TXH ODVKLSyWHVLVTXHVXVWHQWDQODVSROtWLFDVGHODVFLWDGDVLQVWLWXFLRQHVREWLHQHQ
FRQ IUHFXHQFLD XQD FRUURERUDFLyQ GpELO \ SDUFLDO FXDQGR QR FRQWUDULD D ODV
FRQVHFXHQFLDVTXHSUHGLFHQ
8QDUD]yQGHHVWRVUHVXOWDGRVHQWUHRWUDVYDULDV HVWiHQODDPELJHGDGFRQOD
TXH VH SODQWHD OD FRQWUDVWDFLyQ 3XHV HQ HIHFWR XQD HVWUDWHJLD FRPSOHWD GH YDOLGDFLyQ
GH OD UHODFLyQ HQWUH OD SROtWLFD GH DSHUWXUD \ HO FUHFLPLHQWR GHEHUtD UHFRUUHU ORV
VLJXLHQWHVSDVRV
D8QDFRUUHFWDGHILQLFLyQ\GLIHUHQFLDFLyQGHORVGLYHUVRVUHJtPHQHVFRPHUFLDOHV\XQD
RSHUDFLRQDOL]DFLyQGHGLFKDFODVLILFDFLyQ
E (VWDEOHFLPLHQWR GH XQD FRUUHODFLyQ VLJQLILFDWLYD HQWUH HO UpJLPHQ FRPHUFLDO \ HO
UHQGLPLHQWRH[SRUWDGRU
F(VWDEOHFLPLHQWRGHXQDUHODFLyQVLJQLILFDWLYDHQWUHHOUHQGLPLHQWRH[SRUWDGRU\ODWDVD
GHFUHFLPLHQWRDODUJRSOD]R
(VWDVHFXHQFLDSHUPLWLUtDFDVRGHUHVXOWDUYDOLGDGDFRQFOXLUFRQVROLGH]TXHGH
DFXHUGRFRQODSUHVXQFLyQWHyULFDORVSDtVHVFRQUHJtPHQHVRULHQWDGRVDOH[WHULRU\SRU
WDQWRIXHUWHPHQWHH[SRUWDGRUHVDUURMDQPHMRUHVUHVXOWDGRVDODUJRSOD]R6LQHPEDUJR
FRPRVHYHUiORPiVIUHFXHQWHHVTXHORVLQYHVWLJDGRUHVVHGHFLGDQSRUXQDGHODVGRV
PRGDOLGDGHVVLJXLHQWHV
D5HODFLRQDUODVFRUULHQWHVFRPHUFLDOHVHVSHFLDOPHQWHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVFRQODWDVDGH
FUHFLPLHQWR
E 5HODFLRQDUXQLQGLFDGRU IUHFXHQWHPHQWHFRPSXHVWR GHOUpJLPHQRGHODSROtWLFD
FRPHUFLDOH[WHULRUFRQODWDVDGHFUHFLPLHQWR (OSUHVHQWHWUDEDMRQR SUHWHQGHYDOLGDUODWHVLVTXHOLJDXQDSROtWLFDFRPHUFLDOGH
DSHUWXUD H[WHULRU FRQ XQ PD\RU FUHFLPLHQWR HFRQyPLFR REMHWLYR TXH UHTXHULUtD HQ
ULJRUUHFRUUHUORVSDVRVTXHDFDEDQGHHQXPHUDUVH6XPRWLYRHVPiVPRGHVWR\VHFLxH
DYHULILFDUVLODFRUULHQWHH[SRUWDGRUDWLHQHDOJXQDUHODFLyQQRHVSXULDFRQHOFUHFLPLHQWR
GHO SURGXFWR HVSDxRO &RQVLGHUDQGR HVWH REMHWLYR QRV YDQ D LQWHUHVDU HVSHFLDOPHQWH
DTXHOORV SODQWHDPLHQWRV HPStULFRV TXH UHVSRQGDQ D ODV FXDWUR FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV
VLJXLHQWHV
D8WLOL]DUFRPRYDULDEOHH[SOLFDWLYDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVRDOJXQDWUDQVIRUPDFLyQGHHOODV
E 8WLOL]DU FRPR YDULDEOH D H[SOLFDU OD HYROXFLyQ GHO SURGXFWR D ODUJR SOD]R R XQD
YDULDQWHGHHOOD
F(VWDEOHFHUODH[LVWHQFLDRQRGHXQQH[RFDXVDOHQWUHGLFKDVPDJQLWXGHV\QRVyOR
XQDFRUUHODFLyQ
G&RQVLGHUDUH[SUHVDPHQWHHOFDVRHVSDxROHQVLQJXODURHQHOFRQWH[WRGHXQDQiOLVLV
PXOWLSDtV
$FRQWLQXDFLyQFRPHQWDUHPRVEUHYHPHQWHHVWDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDV
9pDVH &KDQWKXQ\D \ 0XULQGH SS \ VV (O HVWXGLR GHO %DQFR 0XQGLDO GLVWLQJXH FXDWUR FDWHJRUtDV GH UHJtPHQHV FRPHUFLDOHV )XHUWHPHQWH RULHQWDGRV DO H[WHULRU
PRGHUDGDPHQWH RULHQWDGRV DO H[WHULRU PRGHUDGDPHQWH RULHQWDGRV KDFLD HO LQWHULRU \
IXHUWHPHQWHRULHQWDGRVDOLQWHULRU
3XHGHHQFRQWUDUVHXQDVHOHFFLyQGHHVWDOLWHUDWXUDHQHO&XDGURGHO$SpQGLFH
(VWHHQIRTXHKDSURGXFLGRDOJXQRVGHORVHVWXGLRVPiVUHSXWDGRV HQODPDWHULDFRPRHOGH
'yOODU R HO GH 6DFKV \ :DUQHU FX\D SUHVHQWDFLyQ MXQWR FRQ RWURV LPSRUWDQWHV
WUDEDMRV \FUtWLFDVHOOHYDDFDERHQHOFLWDGtVLPRSDSHOGH5RGUtJXH]\5RGULN
D/DVH[SRUWDFLRQHVRXQDYDULDQWHGHHOODVFRPRYDULDEOHH[SOLFDWLYD
(O SODQWHDPLHQWR TXH YDPRV D VHJXLU HQ HVWH SULPHU GRFXPHQWR HOLJH D ODV
H[SRUWDFLRQHV FRPR YDULDEOH H[SOLFDWLYD 3RU WDQWR OR TXH VH YD D PHGLU QR HV
UHSUHVHQWDWLYRHQSULPHUDLQVWDQFLDGHOUpJLPHQFRPHUFLDOTXHVLJXH(VSDxDVLQRGH
VXFDSDFLGDGH[SRUWDGRUD8QDGLVWLQFLyQTXHHVUHOHYDQWHSDUDHOGHEDWHWHyULFRHQOD
PHGLGD HQ TXH XQ PLVPR UpJLPHQ FRPHUFLDO HV FRPSDWLEOH FRQ XQD SURSRUFLyQ GH
H[SRUWDFLRQHV VREUH OD SURGXFFLyQ PX\ GLIHUHQWH R XQD PLVPD SURSRUFLyQ GH
H[SRUWDFLRQHV UHVXOWD FRPSDWLEOH FRQ GLIHUHQWHV UHJtPHQHV FRPHUFLDOHV R XQ PLVPR
UpJLPHQ SXHGH SRWHQFLDU GH IRUPD DVLPpWULFD ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV \ ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV
FRPRHVHOFDVRGH-DSyQSRUHMHPSOR
([LVWHQ GLYHUVDV IRUPDV GH KDFHU RSHUDWLYD D OD YDULDEOH H[SRUWDFLRQHV YpDVH
&XDGUR GH OD OLWHUDWXUD HQ HO $SpQGLFH /DV H[SRUWDFLRQHV SXHGHQ LQWURGXFLUVH HQ
QLYHO HQ WDVD GH FUHFLPLHQWR R FRPR SURSRUFLyQ GH OD SURGXFFLyQ VHJ~Q OD
FRQYHQLHQFLDGHODQiOLVLV$GHPiVFRPRVHKDFRPSUREDGR*LOOHV\:LOOLDPV\
WDPELpQHQ*UDQJHUSHOUHVXOWDGRSXHGHHVWDULQIOXLGRSRUODSHULRGLFLGDG
DQXDORWULPHVWUDOGHORVGDWRV$TXtVHKDQSUREDGRDPEDVRSFLRQHVDXQTXHODTXHVH
SUHVHQWD HQ HO WH[WR HVODWULPHVWUDOGHELGRDODVYHQWDMDVHVWDGtVWLFDVTXHSURSRUFLRQD
XQDPXHVWUDPiVJUDQGH
E(O3,%DODUJRSOD]RFRPRYDULDEOHDH[SOLFDU
(OLQWHUpVGHHVWHWUDEDMRVHGLULJHDSUREDUXQDUHODFLyQIDYRUDEOHGHODUJRSOD]R
HQWUHHOUHQGLPLHQWRH[SRUWDGRU\HOSURGXFWR3DUDHOORXWLOL]DODHYROXFLyQHQQLYHOHV
R HQ VX FDVR HQ WDVDV GH FUHFLPLHQWR GHO 3,% WULPHVWUDO GH OD HFRQRPtD HVSDxROD
$OWHUQDWLYDV FHUFDQDV VRQ HO 3,% QHWR GH H[SRUWDFLRQHV FRQ HO REMHWR GH HOLPLQDU OD
SRVLEOH FRUUHODFLyQ SXUDPHQWH FRQWDEOH FRQ OD YDULDEOH H[SOLFDWLYD R HO FRQVXPR
LQWHUQR 3,% PiV LPSRUWDFLRQHV PHQRV H[SRUWDFLRQHV 1LQJXQD GH HVWDV DOWHUQDWLYDV
PHMRUDORVUHJLVWURVGHXVDUVLPSOHPHQWHHO3,%YpDVH&XDGURHQHO$SpQGLFH
F (VWDEOHFLPLHQWRGHXQQH[RFDXVDO
/DSUHVXQFLyQWHyULFDTXHVHGHILHQGHHQHVWHWUDEDMRHVTXHH[LVWHXQQH[RTXH
YDGHVGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVDO3,%\QRYLFHYHUVD6LQHPEDUJRFRQWDUFRQXQDSUXHED
ULJXURVD \ FRQFOX\HQWH HV GLItFLO /D SRVLELOLGDG GH TXH OD FRUUHODFLyQ QR LPSOLTXH
FDXVDOLGDGVLQRXQDDVRFLDFLyQHVSXULDHVDPSOLDPHQWHDGPLWLGD\HVWiHQODEDVHGHOD
SUHRFXSDFLyQ SRU HVWDEOHFHU PHFDQLVPRV GH YDOLGDFLyQ GH XQD UHODFLyQ FDXVDO VREUH
WRGRHQWUHYDULDEOHVQRHVWDFLRQDULDVFRPRVRQIUHFXHQWHPHQWHODVHFRQyPLFDV
3DUD HVWH SURSyVLWR OD VROXFLyQ PiV DFHSWDGD HV FRPR UHVXOWD VDELGR HO
FRQFHSWR GH FDXVDOLGDG GHVDUUROODGR SRU *UDQJHU VHJ~Q HO FXDO XQD YDULDEOH \W
FDXVDDRWUDYDULDEOH[WVLHVSRVLEOHREWHQHUXQDPHMRUSUHGLFFLyQGH[ W FRQVLGHUDQGR
WRGD OD LQIRUPDFLyQ GLVSRQLEOH VREUH HO SDVDGR GH DPEDV YDULDEOHV TXH VL QR
HPSOHDPRV HO SDVDGR GH OD YDULDEOH \W 1R HV HVWH HO OXJDU SDUD XQD GLVFXVLyQ HQ
SURIXQGLGDGGHODVXQWRDXQTXHUHVXOWDSHUWLQHQWHLQWURGXFLUDOJXQDVUHIOH[LRQHVSDUDOD
FRUUHFWDLQWHUSUHWDFLyQWHyULFDGHORVUHVXOWDGRV
(Q SULPHU OXJDU HO FRQFHSWR GH FDXVDOLGDG GH *UDQJHU HV VLQyQLPR GH
SUHGLFWLELOLGDG
(QVHJXQGROXJDUGLFKRFRQFHSWRGHSHQGHHQWHUDPHQWHGHOWLHPSRFRPRGLFHHO
SURSLRDXWRU$XQTXHORVILOyVRIRVKDQLQWHQWDGRKDFHUORDMXLFLRGHHVWHDXWRUWLHQH
SRFDXWLOLGDGSUiFWLFDGLVFXWLUODFDXVDOLGDGVLQLQWURGXFLUHOWLHPSR*UDQJHUS
(VWH DVSHFWR HV FUXFLDO D OD KRUD GH VHOHFFLRQDU ODV WpFQLFDV GH YDOLGDFLyQ TXH
QHFHVDULDPHQWH WHQGUiQ TXH LQFRUSRUDU VHULHV GH WLHPSR HQ OD PHGLGD HQ TXH OD
FDXVDOLGDGWLSR*UDQJHUH[LJHYDORUHVUHWUDVDGRVGHODVYDULDEOHV
(Q WHUFHU OXJDU HO FRQFHSWR GH FDXVDOLGDG HVWi HVSHFtILFDPHQWH UHIHULGR D XQ
FRQMXQWRGHWHUPLQDGR\ILQLWRGHGDWRVTXHUHFRJHWRGDODLQIRUPDFLyQUHOHYDQWH\TXH
DGHPiVHVHQWHUDPHQWHFXDQWLILFDEOH6LHVWDVFRQGLFLRQHVQRVHFXPSOHQSXHGHVXUJLU
XQD UHODFLyQ FDXVDO TXH HQ UHDOLGDG HV HVSXULD HQ HO PLVPR VHQWLGR HQ TXH SRGHPRV
KDEODUGHFRUUHODFLyQHVSXULD<GHKHFKRQRIDOWDQSUXHEDVHPStULFDVGHODIUDJLOLGDG
GHOPpWRGR\GHORVIUHFXHQWHVHUURUHVHQTXHLQFXUUH*XLViQ
(VWDV SDUWLFXODULGDGHV DOLPHQWDQ OD GLVFXVLyQ HQWUH TXLHQHV HQFXHQWUDQ XQ
IXQGDPHQWRWHyULFRHQGLFKRSODQWHDPLHQWRSRUHMHPSOR6LPV\ORVTXHVRVWLHQHQTXH
FDUHFH GH pO SRU HMHPSOR HO GHVWDFDGR ED\HVLDQR =HOOQHU $OJXQDV GH ODV
SHFXOLDULGDGHVTXHVHFULWLFDQVHUtDQODVVLJXLHQWHV9HUFHOOLS
D/DPHGLFLyQHVSRVLEOHVLQWHRUtD
E/DFRUUHODFLyQLPSOLFDFDXVDOLGDG
F$FHSWDFLyQGHOSRVWKRFHUJRSURSWHUKRFFRPRVHGHGXFHGHDOJXQDVDILUPDFLRQHV
GH&6LPV
1RREVWDQWHODVDOXGLGDVLQVXILFLHQFLDVVHWUDWDGHXQSDVRLPSRUWDQWHHLQFOXVR
QHFHVDULRDXQTXHQR VXILFLHQWHFXDQGRVHDQDOL]DQSURFHVRVTXHVRQHVWUXFWXUDOPHQWH
HVWDEOHV\RTXHQRHVWiQDIHFWDGRVSRULQWHUYHQFLRQHVGHSROtWLFDHFRQyPLFDDXQTXHQR
UHSUHVHQWD XQD FRQGLFLyQ QL VXILFLHQWH QL QHFHVDULD HQ SURFHVRV HVWUXFWXUDOPHQWH
LQHVWDEOHV \R TXH HVWiQ LQIOXLGRV SRU ODV LQWHUYHQFLRQHV GH OD SROtWLFD HFRQyPLFD
9HUFHOOLS<VLELHQDODKRUDGHLQWHUSUHWDUORVUHVXOWDGRVKDEUiTXHWHQHU
HQFXHQWDHVWRVPDWLFHVHQHOSUHVHQWHWUDEDMRVHEXVFDUiH[SUHVDPHQWHODFRQWUDVWDFLyQ
GHOQH[RFDXVDOUD]yQSRUODFXDOODUHYLVLyQGHODOLWHUDWXUDTXHVHSUHVHQWD&XDGURHQ
$SpQGLFHWLHQHVXIURQWHUDLQIHULRUHQDxRHQTXH-XQJ\0DUVKDOOXWLOL]DQSRU
SULPHUD YH] HQ HO FRQWH[WR GH OD SUREOHPiWLFD GH HVWH GRFXPHQWR HO FRQFHSWR \ ORV
SURFHGLPLHQWRVLQWURGXFLGRVSRU*UDQJHUSDUDFRPSUREDUODH[LVWHQFLD\GLUHFFLyQGHOD
UHODFLyQFDXVDOHQWUHH[SRUWDFLRQHV\FUHFLPLHQWR G(OFDVRHVSDxRO
/D~OWLPDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDTXHVHFRPHQWDHVTXHHOSUHVHQWHGRFXPHQWRVHFHQWUD
HQ HO FDVR GH (VSDxD ELHQ FRPR HVWXGLR GH XQ ~QLFR SDtV ELHQ FRPR LQWHJUDQWH GH
HVWXGLRVPXOWLSDtVHV&XDQGRVHUHSDVDODOLWHUDWXUDHPStULFDVHDSUHFLDTXHQRDEXQGDQ
ORVHVWXGLRVDSOLFDGRVD(VSDxD$GHPiVXQDSDUWHGHHVRVHVWXGLRVVHUHDOL]DGHVGHOD
SHUVSHFWLYDWHyULFDTXHHQHODSDUWDGR•VHKDUHIHULGRDOHQIRTXHGHODGHPDQGDTXH
FDHIXHUDGHORVREMHWLYRVPDUFDGRVDHVWHGRFXPHQWRRFRQWpFQLFDVGHUHJUHVLyQFURVV
VHFWLRQHQOXJDUGHVHULHVGHWLHPSRTXHWDPELpQGHVERUGDQQXHVWURPDUFRSRUTXHQR
SHUPLWHQFRQWUDVWDUODFDXVDOLGDGWLSR*UDQJHU
(Q FXDQWR D OD OLWHUDWXUD TXH FRPSDUWH XQ HQIRTXH VLPLODU DO TXH DTXt VH
FRQVLGHUDHQJHQHUDOVHDFHSWDODH[LVWHQFLDGHXQDUHODFLyQFDXVDOHQWUHH[SRUWDFLRQHV
(OPpWRGRSDUDLGHQWLILFDUODGLUHFFLyQFDXVDOHPSOHDGRDTXtGHVFDQVDHQXQDYHUVLyQ
VRILVWLFDGDGHOSULQFLSLRSRVWKRFHUJRSURSWHUKRF 6LPVS
(OFLWDGR&XDGURVyORSUHWHQGHRIUHFHUXQDVHOHFFLyQGHODJUDQFDQWLGDGGHHVWXGLRV
LQWHUQDFLRQDOHVVREUHHVWRVWySLFRVVLQQLQJ~QiQLPRGHH[KDXVWLYLGDG3RURWUDSDUWHXQ
UHSDVRVXILFLHQWHDDOJXQDVGHODVDSRUWDFLRQHVPiVUHOHYDQWHVDQWHULRUHV DSXHGH
HQFRQWUDUVHHQ&KDQWKXQ\D\0XULQGHFDSž
\ FUHFLPLHQWR DXQTXH FRPR VH FRPSUREDUi HQ OD EUHYH SUHVHQWDFLyQ TXH VH UHDOL]D D
FRQWLQXDFLyQ ORV UHVXOWDGRV HVWiQ OHMRV GH VHU XQiQLPHV R GH SUHVWDUVH D XQD
LQWHUSUHWDFLyQLQHTXtYRFD
%DODJXHU \ &DQWDYHOOD D E F KDQ OOHYDGR D FDER YDULDV
DSUR[LPDFLRQHVDOSUREOHPDTXHVHHVWiDQDOL]DQGR(Q%DODJXHU\&DQWDYHOODVH
FRQWUDVWD OD UHODFLyQ HQWUH H[SRUWDFLRQHV \ UHQWD LQWHUQD D OR ODUJR GHO SHUtRGR XVDQGR GDWRV DQXDOHV HQ WpUPLQRV UHDOHV 3DUD HOOR DQDOL]DQ HO RUGHQ GH
LQWHJUDFLyQ GH ODV VHULHV PHGLDQWH ORV WHVWV GH ')$ \ 3KLOOLSV3HUURQ DERUGDQ OD
H[LVWHQFLDGHUHODFLyQHVGHFRLQWHJUDFLyQDWUDYpVGHOPpWRGRGH-RKDQVHQ\DSOLFDQHO
WHVW HVWiQGDU GH *UDQJHU DO HVWXGLR GH OD FDXVDOLGDG HQ HO FRQWH[WR GH XQ 0&( (O
UHVXOWDGRXQWDQWRLQHVSHUDGRGHVGHHOSXQWRGHYLVWDGHODVKLSyWHVLVWHyULFDVHVTXHHQ
(VSDxDGXUDQWHHOVLJOR;;VHUHFKD]DODKLSyWHVLVGHOFUHFLPLHQWRLPSXOVDGRSRUODV
H[SRUWDFLRQHV H[SRUWOHG JURZWK (/* HQ DGHODQWH HQ IDYRUGHODFDXVDOLGDGLQYHUVD
GHVGHODUHQWDDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVS$FRQWLQXDFLyQGLYLGHQHODPSOLRSHUtRGRHQ
GRVVXEPXHVWUDV\TXHDQDOL]DQXWLOL]DQGRODVPLVPDVWpFQLFDV
TXH VH DFDEDQ GH FRPHQWDU /RV UHVXOWDGRV LQGLFDQ TXH HQ HO SULPHU VXESHUtRGR QR VH
SXHGH UHFKD]DU OD KLSyWHVLV QXOD GH DXVHQFLD GH FDXVDOLGDG HQ DPEDV GLUHFFLRQHV
PLHQWUDV TXH HQ HO VHJXQGR VH FRPSUXHED XQD UHODFLyQ FDXVDO GH FRUWR SOD]R TXH
GLVFXUUH GHVGH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV DO FUHFLPLHQWR GH OD UHQWD FRQILUPDQGR DO PHQRV
SDUFLDOPHQWHODKLSyWHVLV(/*$XQTXHORVDXWRUHVQRSURIXQGL]DQHQHVWDGLVSDULGDG
XQD LQWHUSUHWDFLyQ UD]RQDEOH VHUtD DWULEXLUOD D ORV LPSRUWDQWHV FDPELRV HVWUXFWXUDOHV
DFDHFLGRVHQODHFRQRPtDHVSDxRODHQODVHJXQGDPLWDGGHOVLJOR;;
/RV FLWDGRV DXWRUHV YXHOYHQ D DQDOL]DU HQ XQ QXHYR WUDEDMR FDVL WRGR HO VLJOR
;;HVSDxRO%DODJXHU\&DQWDYHOODEFRQDOJXQDVYDULDQWHVGLJQDVGHPHQFLyQ
(OH[DPHQOROOHYDQDFDERFRQGDWRVDQXDOHVHQWpUPLQRVUHDOHVSDUDHOSURGXFWR\ODV
H[SRUWDFLRQHV HVSDxRODV GHVDJUHJDGDV HQ YDULRV VHFWRUHV \ GRV VXESHULRGRV TXH
FDUDFWHUL]DQ D JUDQGHV WUD]RV GRV UHJtPHQHV FRPHUFLDOHV SURWHFFLRQLVWD \ DELHUWR
UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH (O SULPHUR GLVFXUUH HQWUH \ HQ pO ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV VH
GHVDJUHJDQ HQ VHFWRUHV DJULFXOWXUD \ DOLPHQWRV SULPDULRV \ PDQXIDFWXUDV (O
VHJXQGR FRPSUHQGH \ ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV VH GHVDJUHJDQ HQ VHFWRUHV
DJULFXOWXUD \ DOLPHQWDFLyQ SULPDULRV HQHUJpWLFRV \ VHPLPDQXIDFWXUDV \ GH
PDQXIDFWXUDV FRQVXPR \ FDSLWDO $ SDUWLU HVWRV GDWRV VH UHDOL]DQ GRV FRQMXQWRV GH
DQiOLVLV HFRQRPpWULFRV 3ULPHUR VH HVWXGLD HO RUGHQ GH LQWHJUDFLyQ GH ODV VHULHV OD
H[LVWHQFLD GH UHODFLRQHV GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ \ OD FDXVDOLGDG WLSR *UDQJHU 'XUDQWH HO
SULPHU VXESHUtRGR VH FRPSUXHED TXH QR H[LVWHQ UHODFLRQHV GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ QL GH
FDXVDOLGDG D FRUWR SOD]R (Q HO VHJXQGR VXESHUtRGR ORV UHVXOWDGRV VRQ PiV ULFRV \
FRPSOHMRV DVt VH REWLHQH HYLGHQFLD GH GRV UHODFLRQHV GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ HQWUH ODV
YDULDEOHV LQFOXLGDV HQ HO 9$5 HOLJLpQGRVH SDUD UHDOL]DU HO DQiOLVLV FDXVDO DTXHOOD TXH
PHMRU VH DMXVWD DO 0&( (O DQiOLVLV FDXVDO PXHVWUD UHODFLyQ ELGLUHFFLRQDO HQWUH ORV
ELHQHV DJUDULRV \ HO SURGXFWR \ HQWUH ORV ELHQHV GH FRQVXPR \ HO SURGXFWR DGHPiV
H[LVWH XQD UHODFLyQ GH FRUWR SOD]R TXH YD GHVGH HO SURGXFWR D ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV GH
HQHUJpWLFRV VHPLPDQXIDFWXUDV \ ELHQHV GH FDSLWDO (VWRV UHVXOWDGRV VRQ LQWHUHVDQWHV
SHURQRSHUPLWHQREWHQHUFODULGDGUHVSHFWRDODVLPSOLFDFLRQHVGHODKLSyWHVLV(/*TXH
VHTXLHUHDQDOL]DU3DUDUHIRU]DUHODQiOLVLVORVDXWRUHVUHDOL]DQXQVHJXQGRFRQMXQWRGH
FRPSUREDFLRQHV OD IXQFLyQ LPSXOVRUHVSXHVWD ),5 \ OD GHVFRPSRVLFLyQ GH OD
YDULDQ]D /RV UHVXOWDGRV DUURMDQ XQD OX] TXH WLHQH LQWHUpV SDUD FRPSUHQGHU DOJXQRV
DVSHFWRV GH OD HYROXFLyQ GH OD SURGXFFLyQ \ HO VHFWRU H[WHULRU GH (VSDxD \ HQ HVWH
VHQWLGR VRQ YDOLRVRV SDUD OD SROtWLFD HFRQyPLFD 3HUR WLHQHQ OD GHELOLGDG GH TXH QR
FRUURERUDQORVUHVXOWDGRVSDUDHOVHJXQGRSHUtRGRREWHQLGRVHQ%DODJXHU\&DQWDYHOOD
FRQILUPDWRULRVGH(/*ORTXHUHTXLHUHVHJXLUSURIXQGL]DQGRHQHODVXQWR
%DODJXHU\&DQWDYHOODDWDPELpQDQDOL]DQODVHJXQGDPLWDGGHOVLJOR;;
FRQGDWRVDQXDOHVDJUHJDGRVGHOSHUtRGRLQWURGXFLHQGRHQODHVSHFLILFDFLyQ
GHO9$5DGHPiVGHOSURGXFWR\ODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV XQDWHUFHUDYDULDEOHLQGLFDWLYDGHO
FDPELR HVWUXFWXUDO \ GHILQLGD FRPR OD UD]yQ GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV LQGXVWULDOHV GH
VHPLPDQXIDFWXUDV ELHQHV GH FRQVXPR \ ELHQHV GH FDSLWDO VREUH HO WRWDO GH
H[SRUWDFLRQHV $ WUDYpV GH ORV SURFHGLPLHQWRV KDELWXDOHV \D FRPHQWDGRV FRQVWDWDQ OD
H[LVWHQFLD GH XQD UHODFLyQ GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ VLJQLILFDWLYD HQWUH ODV WUHV YDULDEOHV \
FRPSUXHEDQ OD H[LVWHQFLD GH FDXVDOLGDG HQ HO VHQWLGR GH *UDQJHU GHVGH ODV
H[SRUWDFLRQHV\HOFDPELRHVWUXFWXUDOKDFLDODUHQWDFRQILUPDQGRDVtODKLSyWHVLV(/*
)LQDOPHQWHHQHOPDUFRGHXQDQiOLVLVPXOWLSDtVUHIHULGRDPLHPEURVGHOD
8QLyQ (XURSHD %DODJXHU \ &DQWDYHOOD F YXHOYHQ D RFXSDUVH GHO FDVR HVSDxRO
3DUDREWHQHUPXHVWUDVTXHVHDQVXILFLHQWHPHQWHFRPSDUDEOHVHOHVWXGLRVHFLxHDGDWRV
DQXDOHVGHOSHUtRGRTXHHQHOFDVRGH(VSDxDHVGHD &RPRHQ
HOSDSHODQWHULRUVHGHILQHXQ9$5WULYDULDQWHGRQGHODYDULDEOHGHFDPELRHVWUXFWXUDO
VHDSUR[LPDSRUODUD]yQGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVLQGXVWULDOHVGHWHFQRORJtDPHGLD\DOWDDO
WRWDO GH H[SRUWDFLRQHV GH ELHQHV 2WUD QRYHGDG HV OD XWLOL]DFLyQ GHO PpWRGR SURSXHVWR
SRU 7RGD \ <DPDPRWR HQ HO DQiOLVLV GH FDXVDOLGDG TXH QR UHTXLHUH SDUD VX
DSOLFDFLyQ TXH ODV VHULHV VHDQ LQWHJUDGDV R FRLQWHJUDGDV /RV UHVXOWDGRV QR VRQ ORV
HVSHUDGRV WHyULFDPHQWH SXHVWR TXH OD KLSyWHVLV (/* QR VH PDQWLHQH SDUD QLQJXQR GH
ORV SDtVHV DQDOL]DGRV \ HQ HO FDVR HVSDxRO PiV ELHQ H[LVWH HYLGHQFLD GH TXH HO
GHVDUUROOR KD IDYRUHFLGR HO FDPELR GH HVWUXFWXUDO \ D VX YH] pVWH KD LPSXOVDGR HO
FUHFLPLHQWR GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV SS \ 1R VH DQDOL]DQ ODV UD]RQHV GH HVWD
GHELOLGDG JHQHUDO GH OD KLSyWHVLV (/* QL GH OD SDUWLFXODU UHIHULGD D (VSDxD TXH
DSDUHQWHPHQWH FRQWUDGLFH OR REWHQLGR HQ SDSHOHV DQWHULRUHV GH ORV PLVPRV DXWRUHV
QXHYDPHQWH SXHGH VRVSHFKDUVH TXH ORV FDPELRV DFDHFLGRV HQ QXHVWUD HFRQRPtD D
PHGLDGRVGHORVDxRVRFKHQWDSXHGHQVHUXQDFDXVD(QFXDOTXLHUFDVRHVWRVUHVXOWDGRV
VRQVHPHMDQWHVDORVREWHQLGRVHQQXHVWURWUDEDMRSDUDXQRVDxRVVLPLODUHVVLELHQFRQ
GDWRVWULPHVWUDOL]DGRV
$ ([SyVLWR UHDOL]D HQ VX WHVLV GRFWRUDO XQ DPSOLR DQiOLVLV GH
GHWHUPLQDGRV DVSHFWRV GHO VHFWRU H[WHULRU HQ HO PDUFR GH XQ PRGHOR QHRFOiVLFR
$GLFLRQDOPHQWH HPSOHD OD PHWRGRORJtD 9$5 \ ORV DQiOLVLV GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ \
FDXVDOLGDG SDUD FRPSUREDU VL VH FXPSOH HQ (VSDxD OD KLSyWHVLV GH OD UHODFLyQ HQWUH
H[SRUWDFLRQHV \ FUHFLPLHQWR (O SHUtRGR DQDOL]DGR FRPSUHQGH FRQ GDWRV
DQXDOHV HQ SHVHWDV GH SDUD HO 3,% ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV \ OD
SURGXFWLYLGDG WRWDO GH ORV IDFWRUHV 37) /RV SDVRV GHO HVWXGLR VRQ ORV KDELWXDOHV
DQiOLVLV GHO RUGHQ GH LQWHJUDELOLGDG GH ODV VHULHV XWLOL]DQGR ORV WHVWV GH ')$ \ GH
3KLOOLSV3HUURQ DQiOLVLV GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ VHJ~Q HO PpWRGR GH -RKDQVHQ \ DQiOLVLV GH
FDXVDOLGDGHQHOVHQWLGRGH*UDQJHUHQHOPDUFRGHXQ0&($GHPiVSDUDFRPSUREDU
ODUREXVWH]GHORVUHVXOWDGRVDORVVXSXHVWRVGHODQiOLVLVGH*UDQJHUXWLOL]DWDPELpQHO
PpWRGR SURSXHVWR SRU +VLDR TXH YXHOYH D FRQILUPDU ODV FRQFOXVLRQHV REWHQLGDV (Q
FRQFUHWR VH FRPSUXHED XQD UHODFLyQ FDXVDO VLJQLILFDWLYD GH ODUJR SOD]R GHVGH ODV
H[SRUWDFLRQHV H LPSRUWDFLRQHV DO SURGXFWR \ D OD 37) OR TXH VLQ GXGD FRUURERUD SDUD
(VSDxD OD KLSyWHVLV GHO FUHFLPLHQWR LPSXOVDGR SRU ODV UHODFLRQHV FRPHUFLDOHV FRQ HO
H[WHULRU (VWH UHVXOWDGR VLQ GXGD LPSRUWDQWH FRLQFLGH HQ OR IXQGDPHQWDO FRQ OR
REWHQLGRHQ%DODJXHU\&DQWDYHOODDSDUDODVHJXQGDPLWDGGHOVLJOR;;
)LQDOPHQWHPHQFLRQDUHPRVRWURWUDEDMRFRLQFLGHQWHSRUHOHQIRTXHFRQORTXH
QRV LQWHUHVD LQYHVWLJDU DTXL SXHV DXQTXH QR VH UHILHUH GLUHFWDPHQWH D (VSDxD HV
LQWHUHVDQWHSDUDGLVFXWLUHOSODQWHDPLHQWR\ODPHWRGRORJtDGHODQiOLVLV1RVUHIHULPRVD
&XDGURV2UWV\$OJXDFLOGRQGHVHSURIXQGL]DHQFXHVWLRQHVTXHDOJXQRVGHHVWRV
DXWRUHVOOHYDQWLHPSRDQDOL]DQGRFRPRVHSRQHGHUHOLHYHHQ$OJXDFLO%DMR0RQWHUR\
2UWV\HQ$OJXDFLO\2UWV3XHVELHQGHOFLWDGRSDSHOGH&XDGURV2UWV\
$OJXDFLO UHDOL]DGR FRQ QRWDEOH ULJRU SXHGHQ H[WUDHUVH DOJXQDV SDXWDV
RULHQWDWLYDVWDQWRGHODPHWRGRORJtDFRPRGHODLQWHUSUHWDFLyQGHORVUHVXOWDGRVGHHVWH
WLSR GH HMHUFLFLRV TXH VRQ ~WLOHV SDUD UHSHQVDU HO FDVR HVSDxRO (QWUH GLFKDV SDXWDV
GHVWDFDPRVORVLJXLHQWH
D /D QHFHVLGDG GH DPSOLDU HO FRQFHSWR GH DSHUWXUD H[WHUQD SDUD LQFOXLU QR VyOR OD
YHUWLHQWHFRPHUFLDOVHJ~QHVKDELWXDOVLQRWDPELpQODILQDQFLHUDFRQFUHWDPHQWHEDMROD
IRUPDGHIOXMRVGHLQYHUVLyQGLUHFWD
E/DLQFRUSRUDFLyQGHQXHYDVWpFQLFDVGHFRQWUDVWDFLyQFRPRODVVXJHULGDVSRU
7RGD \ <DPDPRWR \ 'RODGR \ /WNHSRKO TXH SHUPLWHQ PD\RU
IOH[LELOLGDGDODGHDQDOL]DUODFDXVDOLGDG
F/RVUHVXOWDGRVREWHQLGRVDYDODGRVSRUHOHVSHFLDOFXLGDGRTXHKDQSXHVWRORVDXWRUHV
HQ HO PDQHMR GH ORV LQVWUXPHQWRV HFRQRPpWULFRV SRQHQ GH UHOLHYH OD QHFHVLGDG GH
VHJXLU SURIXQGL]DQGR HQ ORV DUJXPHQWRV WHyULFRV \ HQ ORV FRQWUDVWHV DSOLFDGRV GH OD
KLSyWHVLV (/* \ OD FRQYHQLHQFLD GH SUHVWDU DWHQFLyQ D ORV DVSHFWRV LGLRVLQFUiVLFRV GH
ORVSDtVHVTXHGHVDFRQVHMDQXQDJHQHUDOL]DFLyQPHFiQLFDGHODVUHFRPHQGDFLRQHVGHOD
SROtWLFD HFRQyPLFD 3XHV HQ HIHFWR ORV FRQWUDVWHV HIHFWXDGRV LQGLFDQ XQD UHODFLyQ
VLJQLILFDWLYDHQWUHDSHUWXUD\FUHFLPLHQWRHQ$UJHQWLQD\0p[LFRDGHPiVGHXQDVyOLGD
OLJD]yQ HQWUH ODV LQYHUVLRQHV GLUHFWDV UHFLELGDV \ HO SURGXFWR HQ HVWH ~OWLPR SDtV
PLHQWUDV TXH HQ HO FDVR GH %UDVLO HO DQiOLVLV FRQFOX\H TXH OD UHODFLyQ GLVFXUUH D OD
LQYHUVDGHVGHHOFUHFLPLHQWRGHOSURGXFWRDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV\GHODV
LQYHUVLRQHVUHFLELGDV
$O ILQDO GH HVWH UHFRUULGR VLQWpWLFR SRU ORV WUDEDMRV UHIHULGRV D (VSDxD SXHGHQ
KDFHUVH DOJXQDV UHIOH[LRQHV TXH DO WLHPSR TXH VLUYHQ GH UHVXPHQ GH OR FRPHQWDGR
LQGLFDQWDPELpQHOFDPLQRDVHJXLU\DOJXQDVGLILFXOWDGHVTXHUHVROYHU
(Q SULPHU OXJDU TXHGD FODUR TXH ORV UHVXOWDGRV DOFDQ]DGRV SRU ORV GLYHUVRV
DXWRUHV H LQFOXVR SRU ORV PLVPRV DXWRUHV QR VRQ FRLQFLGHQWHV QL IiFLOPHQWH
DUPRQL]DEOHV$SDUWHGH ORVSUREOHPDVLQHYLWDEOHVGHGLIHUHQFLDVHQPXHVWUD\SHUtRGRV
WHPSRUDOHVGHEHDOXGLUVHDODVHQVLELOLGDGGHHVWDVWpFQLFDVDFXHVWLRQHVWDOHVFRPRHO
Q~PHUR\WLSRGHODVYDULDEOHVLQFOXLGDVODHVSHFLILFDFLyQGHORVPRGHORVHOQ~PHURGH
UHWDUGRVORV VXSXHVWRVGHYHULILFDFLyQGHORVWHVWV
(Q VHJXQGR OXJDU EDMR DSDULHQFLDV VLPLODUHV SXHGHQ RFXOWDUVH ILQDOLGDGHV PX\
GLYHUVDV HQ ORV YDULRV HVWXGLRV TXH KDFHQ GLILFXOWRVD WDQWR VX FRPSDUDFLyQ FRPR OD
OLJD]yQ FRQ ODV KLSyWHVLV WHyULFDV TXH VXSXHVWDPHQWH VH TXLHUHQ FRQWUDVWDU $Vt OD
UHODFLyQHQWUHH[SRUWDFLRQHV\FUHFLPLHQWRHVWiOHMRVGHVHUVLQyQLPDGHODUHODFLyQHQWUH
DSHUWXUD\FUHFLPLHQWRVHJ~Q\DVHKDFRPHQWDGR
(Q WHUFHU OXJDU XQ SUREOHPD HVSHFtILFR VHxDODGR SRU ORV H[SHUWRV SHUR FRQ
IUHFXHQFLD QR DWHQGLGR *LOOHV \ :LOOLDPV D VH UHILHUH D OD HVSHFLILFDFLyQ GHO
0&( /D IRUPD GH HOHJLU OD HVSHFLILFDFLyQ FRUUHFWD SRU HMHPSOR HQWUH ODV YDULDV
SRVLELOLGDGHV TXH HO SURSLR -RKDQVHQ LQGLFD SDUD DSOLFDU VX PpWRGR UHPLWH DO OODPDGR
SULQFLSLRGH3DQWXODGHIRUPDPiVRPHQRVH[SOtFLWDODPD\RUtDGHDXWRUHVVHDFRJHQ
DHVWHSURFHGHURELHQUHSRUWDQORVUHVXOWDGRVGHODVHVSHFLILFDFLRQHVPiVXVXDOHVVLQ
FRQVWDQWH QL WHQGHQFLD FRQ FRQVWDQWH FRQ FRQVWDQWH \ WHQGHQFLD SDUD UHWHQHU OD TXH
RIUH]FDPHMRUHVUHVXOWDGRV6LQHPEDUJRODVSUXHEDVGH0RQWHFDUORTXHKHPRVOOHYDGR
D FDER LQGLFDQ GRV FXHVWLRQHV D /D VHQVLELOLGDG GH ORV DFLHUWRV D OD FRUUHFWD
HVSHFLILFDFLyQGHOYHUGDGHURPRGHORTXHUHSUHVHQWDODVSURSLHGDGHVGHODVVHULHVEOD
VHQVLELOLGDGGHORVUHVXOWDGRVDOWDPDxRGHODPXHVWUDSRUORTXHHQPXHVWUDVSHTXHxDV
SRUGHEDMRGHREVHUYDFLRQHVHOSRUFHQWDMHGHHUURUHVFRPHWLGRVDODSOLFDUGHIRUPD
PHFiQLFDHOPpWRGRGH3DQWXODHVPX\HOHYDGR
$1·/,6,6'(/&$62(63$f2/
&RPR \D VH KD VHxDODGR QXHVWUR REMHWLYR DTXt VHUi GHWHUPLQDU ODV SRVLEOHV
UHODFLRQHV GH FDXVDOLGDG HQWUH HO 3,% \ ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV HVSDxRODV GH ELHQHV \
VHUYLFLRVGXUDQWHORV~OWLPRVYHLQWHDxRV(QHVWHFRPHWLGRVHGDUiQORVWUHVSDVRV TXH
VHHQXPHUDQDFRQWLQXDFLyQ
(Q SULPHU OXJDU VH GHWHUPLQDUi HO RUGHQ GH LQWHJUDFLyQ GH ODV YDULDEOHV GH
LQWHUpVPHGLDQWHHODQiOLVLVXQLYDULDQWHGHODVVHULHVWHPSRUDOHVGHTXHVHGLVSRQH
(Q VHJXQGR OXJDU VH FRPSUREDUi VL HO 3,% \ ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV UHDOHV HVWiQ
FRLQWHJUDGDV
(Q WHUFHU OXJDU OD H[LVWHQFLD R QR GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ GHWHUPLQDUi OD IRUPD GHO
PRGHORVREUHHOFXDODQDOL]DUHPRVODVUHODFLRQHVGHFDXVDOLGDG
/RV GDWRV TXH HPSOHDPRV HQ HO DQiOLVLV VRQ VHULHV WULPHVWUDOHV GH SURGXFWR
LQWHULRUEUXWR\H[SRUWDFLRQHVGHELHQHV\VHUYLFLRVHQWpUPLQRVUHDOHVSDUDHOSHULRGR
,, REWHQLGDVGHO,QVWLWXWR1DFLRQDOGH(VWDGtVWLFD(OH[DPHQJUiILFRGH
DPEDVVHULHVPXHVWUDODSUHVHQFLDGHHVWDFLRQDOLGDGHQHOWHUFHUWULPHVWUHVLQGXGDSRU
(VWRV UHVXOWDGRV REWHQLGRV PHGLDQWH VLPXODFLyQ SRU HO PpWRGR GH PpWRGR GH 0RQWHFDUOR
VHUiQREMHWRGHXQSUy[LPR'RFXPHQWRGH7UDEDMRGHWRGRVPRGRVHOOHFWRULQWHUHVDGRSRGUi
REWHQHUORVGDWRVPHGLDQWHSHWLFLyQDORVDXWRUHVSRUVLGHVHDUHSOLFDUHOH[SHULPHQWR
/DVVHULHVHPSOHDGDVQRDSDUHFHQHQHVWHGRFXPHQWR6LQHPEDUJRHOOHFWRULQWHUHVDGRHQ
ODUHSOLFDFLyQGHODQiOLVLVSXHGHSHGtUVHODVDORVDXWRUHV
OD LPSRUWDQFLD GH ODV DFWLYLGDGHV WXUtVWLFDV PD\RULWDULDPHQWH FRQFHQWUDGDV HQ GLFKD
pSRFD GHO DxR 3RU WDQWR HO SDVR SUHYLR D OR TXH VH GHVDUUROODUi D FRQWLQXDFLyQ KD
FRQVLVWLGR HQ GHVHVWDFLRQDOL]DU DPEDV VHULHV PHGLDQWH HO PpWRGR &HQVXV;
GHVDUUROODGRSRUHO86%XUHDXRI&HQVXV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$FRQWLQXDFLyQVHSUHVHQWDQORVUHVXOWDGRVREWHQLGRVGHODQiOLVLVXQLYDULDQWHGH
ODV VHULHV WHPSRUDOHV 3LEUW \ ([UW UHDOL]DGR PHGLDQWH HO HQIRTXH %R[-HQNLQV SDUD OD
HODERUDFLyQGHPRGHORV$5,0$/RVGLVWLQWRVLQVWUXPHQWRVHPSOHDGRVHQHOSURFHVRGH
LGHQWLILFDFLyQVHPXHVWUDQHQHODSpQGLFH3DUDFDGDVHULHVHSUHVHQWDQORVJUiILFRVGH
ODV VHULHV HVWDQGDUL]DGDV HQ QLYHO SULPHUDV \ VHJXQGDV GLIHUHQFLDV DVt FRPR VXV
FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV IXQFLRQHV GH DXWRFRUUHODFLyQ VLPSOH DFI \ SDUFLDO SDFI (O
HVWDGtVWLFR 4 TXH DSDUHFH EDMR ORV JUiILFRV GH OD IXQFLyQ GH DXWRFRUUHODFLyQ VLPSOH VH
FRUUHVSRQGH FRQ HO HVWDGtVWLFR SURSXHVWR SRU /MXQJ \ %R[ HQ GRQGH HQWUH
SDUpQWHVLVVHSUHVHQWDQORVJUDGRVGHOLEHUWDGGHODF FRUUHVSRQGLHQWH
(Q DPERV FDVRV KD VLGR QHFHVDULD OD DGRSFLyQ GH XQD GLIHUHQFLD UHJXODU VREUH
ODVVHULHVWUDQVIRUPDGDVHQORJDULWPRVFRQHOILQGHDOFDQ]DUHVWDFLRQDULHGDGHQPHGLD
/RVPRGHORVSURSXHVWRVSDUDFDGDXQDGHODVYDULDEOHVVRQORVVLJXLHQWHV
/Q3LEUW
Z]W ,9 13LEUW
‡% ‡% ‡%'13LEUW P DW
/Q([UW Z]W , 1([UW
'1([UW P HW
HQ GRQGH '{% VLHQGR % HO RSHUDGRU GH UHWDUGRV 'HELGR D OD SUHVHQFLD GH YDORUHV
DQyPDORV HQ DPEDV VHULHV KD VLGR RSRUWXQD OD UHDOL]DFLyQ GH DQiOLVLV GH LQWHUYHQFLyQ
PHGLDQWHODLQFOXVLyQGHYDULDEOHVLPSXOVRHQQLYHOHQHOFXDUWRWULPHVWUHGHHQHO
FDVR GHO 3,% \ HQ HO SULPHU WULPHVWUH GH HQ HO FDVR GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV GH
PDQHUDTXH]W ,9 ^HQWz ,9HQW ,9`\]W , ^HQWz ,
HQW ,`(OWpUPLQRFRQVWDQWHP VHKDLQFRUSRUDGRHQDPERVPRGHORV\DTXHOD
PHGLDGH'/Q3LEUW \'/Q([UW HVGHFDVL\YHFHVVXVFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHVGHVYLDFLRQHV
WtSLFDV
/RV UHVXOWDGRV GH OD HVWLPDFLyQ GH DPERV PRGHORV VH SUHVHQWDQ HQ HO FXDGUR D
FRQWLQXDFLyQ
&XDGUR5HVXOWDGRVGHODHVWLPDFLyQGHORVPRGHORVD\E
‡% ‡% ‡% ‡%
A
‡
GW
A
‡
GW
0RGHOR
L
0HGLD
,QWHUYHQFLyQ
A
‡
GW
A
P
GW
,P,9
A
Z
GW
,P,
A
Z
GW
GW
GHORV
UHVLGXRV
(VWDGtVWLFR
%HUD
-DUTXH
L /RV PRGHORV KDQ VLGR HVWLPDGRV FRQ HO VRIWZDUH HFRQRPpWULFR '5986 Y 0DXULFLR SRU Pi[LPD
YHURVLPLOLWXGH[DFWD0DXULFLR
/RV JUiILFRV GH UHVLGXRV GH ORV PRGHORV HVWLPDGRV VX DFI \ SDFI
FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHDVtFRPRHOKLVWRJUDPDGHUHVLGXRVVHSUHVHQWDQHQHODSpQGLFH
(O DQiOLVLV XQLYDULDQWH GH ODV VHULHV 3LEUW \ ([UW QRV KD SHUPLWLGR REWHQHU GRV
UHVXOWDGRV ~WLOHV (Q SULPHU OXJDU SDUHFH UD]RQDEOH FRQFOXLU TXH DPEDV VHULHV VRQ
LQWHJUDGDVGHRUGHQXQR,\TXHSRUWDQWRQHFHVLWDQVHUGLIHUHQFLDGDVXQDYH]SDUD
DOFDQ]DU HVWDFLRQDULHGDG (Q VHJXQGR OXJDU KHPRV HQFRQWUDGR YDORUHV DQyPDORV HQ
(VWD IHFKD FRLQFLGH FRQ OD HQWUDGD GH (VSDxD HQ OD &RPXQLGDG (FRQyPLFD (XURSHD 6L
DOUHGHGRUGHOFLWDGRDxRVHSURGXFHXQDDOWHUDFLyQSXUDPHQWHWUDQVLWRULDRXQVKRFN TXH
SURYRFD XQ FDPELR HVWUXFWXUDO HQ ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV GH (VSDxD HV XQ WHPD DPSOLDPHQWH
GHEDWLGR VREUH HO TXH QR KD\ DFXHUGR HQWUH ORV LQYHVWLJDGRUHV $ SHVDU GH TXH HO DQiOLVLV
JUiILFRVXJLHUHODSUHVHQFLDGHXQDLQWHUYHQFLyQGHWLSRHVFDOyQKD\UD]RQHVHQQXHVWURFDVR
HO QLYHO DJUHJDGR OD LQFOXVLyQGHOWXULVPRSUiFWLFDPHQWHQRVXMHWRD VKRFNV SRVWLQWHJUDFLyQ
TXHKDFHQUD]RQDEOHXQDLQWHUYHQFLyQGHWLSRLPSXOVR8QEXHQUHVXPHQGHODSROpPLFD\XQD
QXHYD FRQWUDVWDFLyQ FRQ GDWRV GHVDJUHJDGRV GH FRPHUFLR HVSDxRO HQ 0RQWDxpV \ 6DQVR
FX\RVUHVXOWDGRVDYDODQODSUHVHQFLDGHXQFDPELRHVWUXFWXUDO
DPEDVVHULHV\KHPRVHVWLPDGRVXLPSDFWRVREUHODVPLVPDVFRQORTXHDSDUWLUGHDTXt
WUDEDMDUHPRVFRQODVVHULHVGHSXUDGDV13LEUW \1([UW
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ\&DXVDOLGDG
'HVGH OD LQWURGXFFLyQ GH OD LGHD GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ HQ HO WUDEDMR GH *UDQJHU
\ OD SRVWHULRU IRUPDOL]DFLyQ GHO PLVPR SRU (QJOH \ *UDQJHU KDQ
DSDUHFLGRHQODOLWHUDWXUDGLYHUVRVPpWRGRVSDUDGHWHUPLQDUVLHQWUHGRVRPiVYDULDEOHV
QRHVWDFLRQDULDVH[LVWHFRLQWHJUDFLyQ&DEHGHVWDFDUHQWUHRWURVORVWUDEDMRVGH(QJOH\
*UDQJHU 6WRFN 6WRFN \ :DWVRQ -RKDQVHQ (QJOH \ <RR
+DQVHQ\3KLOOLSV3KLOOLSV\2XOLDULV\3KLOOLSV
(Q HO FDVR GHO SURFHGLPLHQWR GHVDUUROODGRSRU-RKDQVHQHOFXDOHPSOHDPRVHQ
QXHVWURDQiOLVLVYDULRVWUDEDMRVHVWXGLDQWDQWRODVSURSLHGDGHVGHOHVWLPDGRUGHPi[LPD
YHURVLPLOLWXG GH ORV YHFWRUHV GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ FRPR ODV GH ORV WHVW GH UDWLR GH
YHURVLPLOLWXGHV &RPSDUDFLRQHV GHO PpWRGR GH -RKDQVHQ IUHQWH D RWURV YtD VLPXODFLyQ
SXHGHQHQFRQWUDUVHHQ*RQ]DOR+DXJK\*RQ]DOR\/HHPLHQWUDV
TXH ODV SURSLHGDGHV GH ORV WHVW GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ KDQ VLGR DQDOL]DGDV HQ RWURV WUDEDMRV
FRPRHVHOFDVRGH7RGD&KHXQJ\/DL
(Q JHQHUDO HVWD DPSOLD OLWHUDWXUD FRLQFLGH HQ GHVWDFDU ODV PHMRUHV SURSLHGDGHV
TXHSUHVHQWDHOPpWRGRGH-RKDQVHQIUHQWHDOUHVWR6HxDODQDVXYH]ODLPSRUWDQFLDGH
OD FRUUHFWD HVSHFLILFDFLyQ GHO PRGHOR VREUH HO FXDO VH FRQWUDVWD OD H[LVWHQFLD GH
FRLQWHJUDFLyQHQWUH ODVYDULDEOHVGHLQWHUpVSDUDODREWHQFLyQGHUHVXOWDGRVILDEOHV(VWD
FRUUHFWDHVSHFLILFDFLyQVHEDVDSULQFLSDOPHQWHHQXQDGREOHHOHFFLyQ
D HQ SULPHUOXJDUHVQHFHVDULRHOHJLUHOPRGHORTXHPHMRUUHFRMDODVSURSLHGDGHV
GH ODV VHULHV DQDOL]DGDV PHGLDQWH OD LQFOXVLyQ R QR GH FRPSRQHQWHV
GHWHUPLQLVWDVHQHOPLVPR(VWDFXHVWLyQHVUHOHYDQWHGDGRDTXHODGLVWULEXFLyQ
DVLQWyWLFD GHO WHVW GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ GH -RKDQVHQ YDUtD HQ IXQFLyQ GH GLFKD
HOHFFLyQ
E HQ VHJXQGR OXJDU HV LPSRUWDQWH HVSHFLILFDU GH IRUPD DGHFXDGD OD GLQiPLFD GHO
PRGHORDWUDYpVGHODFRUUHFWDHOHFFLyQGHOQ~PHURGHUHWDUGRVTXHVHLQFOX\HQ
HQFDGDYDULDEOH
0LHQWUDV TXH OD FXHVWLyQ E HV DERUGDGD GH IRUPD DGHFXDGD \ VXILFLHQWH HQ OD
PD\RUtDGHWUDEDMRVHPStULFRVODFXHVWLyQDQRKDJR]DGRGHWDQWDDWHQFLyQOOHJDQGRD
VHULJQRUDGDHQDOJXQRVWUDEDMRVTXHHPSOHDQHVWDPHWRGRORJtD
(OPRGHORDHVWLPDU\VREUHHOFXDOVHFRQWUDVWDUiODH[LVWHQFLDGHFRLQWHJUDFLyQ
HVHOVLJXLHQWH
'<W K *'<W ž*N'<WN *<W HW
HQGRQGH<W 13LEUW 1([UW©HVQXHVWURYHFWRUGHYDULDEOHVGHLQWHUpV\HW { LLG1
6H'HELGRDTXHODVVHULHVDQDOL]DGDVVRQQRHVWDFLRQDULDVHQQLYHOSHURHVWDFLRQDULDV
HQ SULPHUDV GLIHUHQFLDV H[LVWH OD SRVLELOLGDG GH TXH VHDQ FRLQWHJUDGDV GH RUGHQ
%DMR OD KLSyWHVLV QXOD GH TXH H[LVWH XQD FRPELQDFLyQ OLQHDO LQWHJUDGD GH RUGHQ
FHURHQWUHORVHOHPHQWRVGHOYHFWRU< W ODPDWUL]* SXHGHHVFULELUVHFRPRHOSURGXFWR
GHGRVPDWULFHVGHIRUPDTXH* DE©HQGRQGHD \E VRQDPEDVPDWULFHV[\HQ
GRQGH E UHFRJH HO YHFWRU GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ /RV JUiILFRV GH ODV VHULHV 13LEUW \ 1([UW
PXHVWUDQ XQD FODUD WHQGHQFLD FUHFLHQWH OR TXH MXVWLILFD OD LQWURGXFFLyQ GHO YHFWRU GH
WpUPLQRVFRQVWDQWHVK
(Q FXDQWR D OD HOHFFLyQ GHO RUGHQ GHO 9$5 KHPRV HPSOHDGR HO FULWHULR GH
6FKZDU] &6 \ HO FULWHULR (3) HUURU GH SUHGLFFLyQ ILQDOGH$NDLNH$PERVFULWHULRV
PXHVWUDQ XQD GLIHUHQFLD VXVWDQFLDO HQ OD GHWHUPLQDFLyQ GHO Q~PHUR GH UHWDUGRV
6LJXLHQGRODVUHFRPHQGDFLRQHVGH*LOHV\0LU]D KHPRVRSWDGRSRUDGRSWDUHO
FULWHULR (3) \ SRU WDQWR XQ YDORU GH N LJXDO D QXHYH (O VLJXLHQWH SDVR D VHJXLU HV OD
HVWLPDFLyQGHOPRGHORSODQWHDGRSRUPi[LPDYHURVLPLOLWXG\ODDSOLFDFLyQGHORVWHVWV
GHUDWLRGHYHURVLPLOLWXGHV¦WUDFH§\¦OPi[§GHVDUUROODGRVSRU-RKDQVHQ
FRQ HO ILQ GH GHWHUPLQDU VL HO 3,% \ ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV HVWiQ FRLQWHJUDGDV $VLPLVPR
DSOLFDUHPRV XQ WHVW GH UDWLR GH YHURVLPLOLWXGHV SDUD FRQWUDVWDU OD KLSyWHVLV QXOD GH
DXVHQFLDGHWHQGHQFLDOLQHDOHQODVVHULHVQRHVWDFLRQDULDV/Q3LEU W/Q([UW SRUORTXH
HV QHFHVDULR HVWLPDU XQ PRGHOR LJXDO D SHUR VLQ WpUPLQRV FRQVWDQWHV \ TXH
*LOHV\0LU]DUHFRPLHQGDQHOHPSOHRGH&6\(3)SDUDODGHWHUPLQDFLyQGHOQ~PHUR
GH UHWDUGRV HQ OD HVWLPDFLyQ GH ORV YHFWRUHV GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ <D TXH HO FULWHULR &6 WLHQGH D
LQIUDHVWLPDUHOYHUGDGHURQ~PHURGHSDUiPHWURV\(3)DVREUHHVWLPDUOR\GHELGRDODPD\RU
VHQVLELOLGDG GH ORV WHVWV GH -RKDQVHQ D OD LQIUDSDUDPHWUL]DFLyQ >*RQ]DOR &KHXQJ\/DL
@HVWRVDXWRUHVVXJLHUHQHOHPSOHRGH(3)HQFDVRVHQORVTXHDPERVFULWHULRVGHQXQ
UHVXOWDGRPX\GLVSDU\HOHPSOHRGH&6HQHOUHVWRGHFDVRVSRUVXPD\RUFRQVLVWHQFLD
GHQRPLQDUHPRV FRPR (Q HO FDVR GH QR HQFRQWUDU HYLGHQFLD D IDYRU GH GLFKD
KLSyWHVLV QXOD FRQVLGHUDUHPRV TXH QXHVWUR PRGHOR HVWi ELHQ HVSHFLILFDGR FRQ OD
LQFRUSRUDFLyQ GHO YHFWRU GH WpUPLQRV FRQVWDQWHV KYHU -RKDQVHQ \ -XVHOLXV -RKDQVHQ/RVUHVXOWDGRVGHHVWRVWHVWVVHSUHVHQWDQHQHOVLJXLHQWHFXDGUR
&XDGUR5HVXOWDGRVGHORVWHVWWUDFH\O Pi[
0RGHOR
L
9HFWRUGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
LL
F
1([UW
9DORUHV
3URSLRV O
+1•GH
UHODFLRQHVGH
FRLQWHJUDFLyQ
U
WUDFH
O Pi[
U U U d U d (VWDGtVWLFR
9DORUFUtWLFR
1LYHOGH
6LJQLILFDFLyQ
LLL
WUDFH
O Pi[
L$PERVPRGHORVKDQVLGRHVWLPDGRVPHGLDQWH(9LHZVY
LL13LEUW FJ1([UW
LLL9DORUHVFUtWLFRVGH 2VWHUZDOG/HQXP
/RV YDORUHV REWHQLGRV GH ORV HVWDGtVWLFRV ¦WUDFH§ \ ¦OPi[§ HQ HO PRGHOR ¦F§
QRPXHVWUDQHYLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHODKLSyWHVLVGHTXHODVYDULDEOHV13LEUW \1([UW HVWpQ
FRLQWHJUDGDV3DUDODKLSyWHVLVQXODGHTXHH[LVWHFRLQWHJUDFLyQORVHVWDGtVWLFRV¦WUDFH§
\ ¦OPi[§ WRPDQ DPERV HO YDORU GH SRU HQFLPD GHO YDORU FUtWLFR DO GH
FRQILDQ]D3DUDODKLSyWHVLVQXODGHTXHQRH[LVWHFRLQWHJUDFLyQORVHVWDGtVWLFRVWRPDQ
YDORUHV GH \ SRU GHEDMR GH ORV YDORUHV FUtWLFRV FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV 3DUD
GHWHUPLQDU OD UREXVWH] GH QXHVWURV UHVXOWDGRV D OD YDULDFLyQ GHO Q~PHUR GH UHWDUGRV
KHPRVDSOLFDGRDPERVWHVWVYDULDQGRHQFDGDFDVRHOQ~PHURGHUHWDUGRVLQFOXLGRVHQHO
0&( GHVGH KDVWD (Q QLQJ~Q FDVR KHPRV HQFRQWUDGR HYLGHQFLD D IDYRU GH OD
KLSyWHVLV GH FRLQWHJUDFLyQ HQWUH ODV GRV VHULHV (Q FXDQWR DO WHVW GH DXVHQFLD GH
WHQGHQFLDOLQHDOHQQXHVWUDVYDULDEOHV\GDGRTXHQRH[LVWHFRLQWHJUDFLyQHOHVWDGtVWLFR
GHUDWLRGHYHURVLPLOLWXGHVWRPDHOYDORUGHPX\SRUHQFLPD GHOYDORUFUtWLFRGH
XQDFUHFKD]iQGRVHDVtODKLSyWHVLVQXODGHDXVHQFLDGHWHQGHQFLDOLQHDOHQORVGDWRV
'DGR TXH ODV YDULDEOHV DQDOL]DGDV VRQ , SHUR QR &, HO VLJXLHQWH SDVR
SDUDGHWHUPLQDUODVUHODFLRQHVGHFDXVDOLGDGHQWUHHOODVVHUiOD HVWLPDFLyQGHXQ9$5N
HQSULPHUDVGLIHUHQFLDV
'<W K *'<W ž*N'<WN HW
$O LJXDO TXH HQ HO FDVR GHO 0&( OD SULPHUD GHFLVLyQ D WRPDU HV OD
GHWHUPLQDFLyQ GHO Q~PHUR GH UHWDUGRV ¦N§ /RV UHVXOWDGRV GH ORV FULWHULRV &6 \ (3)
PXHVWUDQGHQXHYRXQDGLVSDULGDGLPSRUWDQWHGHIRUPDTXHVHKDDGRSWDGRXQYDORUGH
NLJXDODFXDWURVHJ~QHOFULWHULR(3)
(O VLJXLHQWH FXDGUR PXHVWUD ORV UHVXOWDGRV GH DSOLFDU HO WHVW GH FDXVDOLGDG GH
*UDQJHUVREUHHOPRGHORPHGLDQWHHOHVWDGtVWLFR)
&XDGUR 5HVXOWDGRVGHOHVWDGtVWLFR)
+LSyWHVLVQXOD+
L
’13LEUW QRFDXVDD’1([UW *L L ž
’1([UW QRFDXVDD’13LEUW *L L ž
(VWDGtVWLFR)
9DORUFUtWLFR
1LYHOGH
6LJQLILFDFLyQ
L6HJ~Q ODQRWDFLyQGHOPRGHOR¦H§*LIF HVHOHOHPHQWRGHODILOD¦I§FROXPQD¦F§GHODPDWUL]¦L§
&RPR SXHGH FRPSUREDUVH QR H[LVWH UHODFLyQ GH FDXVDOLGDG HVWDGtVWLFDPHQWH
VLJQLILFDWLYDHQQLQJXQRGHORVGRVSRVLEOHVVHQWLGRVSXHVWRTXHHQQLQJXQRGHORVGRV
FDVRVVHUHFKD]DODKLSyWHVLVQXODGHDXVHQFLDGHFDXVDOLGDG
',6&86,¾1<&21&/86,21(6
(O SUHVHQWH WUDEDMR VH KD SODQWHDGR FRPR REMHWLYR DQDOL]DU OD UHODFLyQ HQWUH
H[SRUWDFLRQHV \ FUHFLPLHQWR HQ OD HFRQRPtD HVSDxROD &RPR VH KD H[SXHVWR HQ ORV
DQWHULRUHV DSDUWDGRV H[LVWHQ DUJXPHQWRV SDUD HVSHUDU TXH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV SXHGDQ
HMHUFHU XQ HIHFWR EHQHILFLRVR VREUH HO FUHFLPLHQWR GHO SURGXFWR HQ XQD HFRQRPtD
DELHUWD 6LQ HPEDUJR OD RSLQLyQ GHODOLWHUDWXUDHVSHFLDOL]DGDHVTXHODDUJXPHQWDFLyQ
WHyULFD SUHVHQWD DO PHQRV GRV GHELOLGDGHV IDOWD GH VROLGH] VXILFLHQWH FRPR SDUD
LPSRQHUVH D SULRUL H LQGHWHUPLQDFLyQ GHO VHQWLGR GH OD FDXVDOLGDG VLHQGR SRVLEOH
FDXVDOLGDG XQLGLUHFFLRQDO GHVGH FDGD XQD GH ODV YDULDEOHV KDFLD OD RWUD H LQFOXVR
ELGLUHFFLRQDO 3RU WRGR HOOR VH KDFH LPSUHVFLQGLEOH HO UHFXUVR D OD FRQWUDVWDFLyQ
HPStULFD 'LFKD FRQWUDVWDFLyQ VL TXLHUH DSR\DU ODV SUHVXQFLRQHV WHyULFDV GHEH LU PiV
DOOi GHO VLPSOH DQiOLVLV GH FRUUHODFLyQ H LQWHQWDU FDSWDU OD H[LVWHQFLD \ VHQWLGR GH XQD
UHODFLyQFDXVDO
/RV DQiOLVLV DTXt UHDOL]DGRV KDQ FRQFOXLGR TXH QR VH GHWHFWD UHODFLyQ GH
FRLQWHJUDFLyQ HQWUH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV \ HO 3,% SDUD ORV GDWRV WULPHVWUDOHV GH DPEDV
YDULDEOHV HQ HO SHUtRGR , D , GLFKRV GDWRV IXHURQ SUHYLDPHQWH
GHVHVWDFLRQDOL]DGRV \ GHSXUDGRV GH ORV YDORUHV DWtSLFRV VHJ~Q VH KD FRPHQWDGR HQ VX
PRPHQWR 7HQLHQGR HQ FXHQWD HVWH UHVXOWDGR OD XWLOL]DFLyQ GHO WHVW GH *UDQJHU GH QR
FDXVDOLGDG KD FRQGXFLGR D HVWDEOHFHU TXH HQ OD HVSHFLILFDFLyQ FRUUHFWD GHO PRGHOR
VXJHULGD SRU ORV GDWRV HV GHFLU FRQ OD LQFOXVLyQ GH XQD YDULDEOH GH WHQGHQFLD QR VH
UHFKD]DODKLSyWHVLVQXODGHDXVHQFLDGHQH[RFDXVDOHQHOFRUWRSOD]R
'H WRGRV PRGRV OD LQWHUSUHWDFLyQ GH HVWRV UHVXOWDGRV GHEH UHDOL]DUVH FRQ
FDXWHOD SRU YDULDV UD]RQHV 8QD SULPHUD HV TXH OR TXH DTXt VH KD FRQWUDVWDGR HV OD
FRQH[LyQ HQWUH XQD PHGLGD GH UHQGLPLHQWR FRPHUFLDO \ HO FUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%ORTXH
QR DXWRUL]D D H[WHQGHU ODV FRQFOXVLRQHV D OD KLSyWHVLV PiV DPSOLD TXH DILUPD OD
FDXVDFLyQ HQWUH DSHUWXUD H[WHULRU \ FUHFLPLHQWR HFRQyPLFR FRPR VH KD FRPHQWDGR HQ
ODVSiJLQDVDQWHULRUHVXQDHVWUDWHJLDFRPSOHWDGHFRQWUDVWDFLyQGHHVWD~OWLPDKLSyWHVLV
LQYROXFUDYDULRVSDVRVTXHVHKDQHVSHFLILFDGRHQVXPRPHQWRHQWUHHOORVODUHODFLyQ
HQWUH XQ LQGLFDGRU SUREDEOHPHQWH FRPSXHVWR GHO JUDGR GH DSHUWXUD GH OD SROtWLFD
FRPHUFLDO \ ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV XQD WDUHD TXH LQGLFD HO FDPLQR IXWXUR D VHJXLU HQ HO
GHVDUUROORGHODSUHVHQWHLQYHVWLJDFLyQ
8QD VHJXQGD UD]yQ HV TXH OD DXVHQFLD GH UHODFLyQ FDXVDO TXH DTXt VH KD
FRPSUREDGRVHUHILHUHDODFDXVDOLGDGWLSR*UDQJHUGRQGHFDXVDOLGDGVHLGHQWLILFDFRQ
SUHGLFWLELOLGDG HQXQVHQWLGRHVWDGtVWLFRPX\SUHFLVRTXHHQWUHRWUDVFRVDV H[FOX\HOD
FRQWHPSRUDQHLGDG HQ OD FDXVDFLyQ 3HUR HVWD H[FOXVLyQ QR VLHPSUH HVWi MXVWLILFDGD HQ
HFRQRPtD FRPR PXHVWUDQ DOJXQDV LQYHVWLJDFLRQHV HPStULFDV 3RU WRGR HOOR KD\ TXH
HYLWDU FLHUWDV LPSOLFDFLRQHV GH SROtWLFD HFRQyPLFD TXH QR VH VLJXHQ GH OD DXVHQFLD GH
UHVXOWDGRV FRPHQWDGD 8QD SULPHUD LPSOLFDFLyQ D HYLWDU HV TXH GDGR TXH QR VH FDSWD
XQDUHODFLyQFDXVDO WLSR*UDQJHUHQWRQFHVQRH[LVWH UHODFLyQFDXVDOHQWUHHYROXFLyQGH
ODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV\FUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%HQODHFRQRPtDHVSDxRODHQVHQWLGRFRQWUDULR
HVWRV UHVXOWDGRV QR DXWRUL]DQ D FRQFOXLU TXH XQD SROtWLFD SURWHFFLRQLVWD R LQFOXVR
OLPLWDWLYD GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV SRGUtD GHIHQGHUVH FRPR LJXDOPHQWH FRQGXFHQWH DO
FUHFLPLHQWRHFRQyPLFR
3DUD HO IXWXUR VH FRQILUPD OR TXH VH KD FRPHQWDGR DO SUHVHQWDU OD HVFDVD
ELEOLRJUDItD UHIHULGD D (VSDxD HO GHEDWH VLJXH DELHUWR \ WHQGUi TXH SURVHJXLU
LPSXOVDQGRWDQWRORVGHVDUUROORVWHyULFRVFRPRORVDQiOLVLVHPStULFRV(QUHODFLyQFRQ
9pDVH XQD LQWHUHVDQWHDSOLFDFLyQHQ*XLViQ\ODFRQFOXVLyQ,QWKLVSDSHUZHKDYH
SUHVHQWHGWKRVH HVWLPDWLRQVDQGWHVWVIRUWKH86$DQG0H[LFRVKRZLQJHYLGHQFHRIELODWHUDO
FRQWHPSRUDQHRXVUHODWLRQVLQERWKFRXQWULHVEHWZHHQ&RQVXPSWLRQDQG*'3S
HVWRV ~OWLPRV VH SXHGHQ UHVXPLU DOJXQDV GH ODV VXJHUHQFLDV TXH VH KDQ UHFRJLGR DO
DQDOL]DUORVWUDEDMRVGHORVGLVWLQWRVDXWRUHV
D ,QWURGXFLU QXHYDV YDULDEOHV HQ ORV 9$5 FRQFUHWDPHQWH OD LQYHUVLyQ GLUHFWD
H[WUDQMHUDSXHGHVHUXQFRPSOHPHQWRLQGLVSHQVDEOHGHODSROtWLFDGHDSHUWXUD
E 5HYLVDU ORV SURFHGLPLHQWRV HQ FRQFUHWR OD GHVHVWDFLRQDOL]DFLyQ SUHYLD GH ODV VHULHV
WULPHVWUDOHV SURFHGHUTXHSXHGHKDFHUSHUGHULQIRUPDFLyQUHOHYDQWH \HVWDUDWHQWRVD
ODV LQQRYDFLRQHV TXH VH KDQ LGR SURGXFLHQGR HQ OD OLWHUDWXUD SDUD UHILQDU HO DQiOLVLV
HFRQRPpWULFR
F7UDEDMDUFRQGLVWLQWDVPXHVWUDVDILQGHFRPSUREDUVLODVFRQFOXVLRQHVVRQUREXVWDV
DO WLSR \ SHUtRGR GH ORV GDWRV FRPR VH KD FRPSUREDGR HVWD SXHGH VHU XQD GH ODV
UD]RQHVGHODQRFRLQFLGHQFLDGHUHVXOWDGRVHQWUHDOJXQRVGHORVWUDEDMRV
G0X\HVSHFLDOPHQWHDWHQGHUDODFRUUHFWDHVSHFLILFDFLyQGHO0&(HQGRVDVSHFWRVHQ
TXH OD OLWHUDWXUD HVSHFLDOL]DGD KD SXHVWR pQIDVLV SHUR TXH QR VLHPSUH KDQ VLGR
DWHQGLGRV HO Q~PHUR GH UHWDUGRV LQFRUSRUDGRV \ SULQFLSDOPHQWH OD DXVHQFLD R
SUHVHQFLD GH FRQVWDQWHV \ WHQGHQFLDV HQ HO PRGHOR (Q HVWH SXQWR KD\ TXH VRPHWHU D
GLVFXVLyQ XQD DSOLFDFLyQ GHPDVLDGR PHFiQLFD GHO SULQFLSLR GH 3DQWXOD TXH VH KD
FRPSUREDGR TXH SXHGH FRQGXFLU D LPSRUWDQWHV HUURUHV GH VHOHFFLyQ H LQVLVWLU HQ HO
DQiOLVLVGHODVSURSLHGDGHVGHODVVHULHVRULJLQDOHVTXHHOPRGHORGHEHUHIOHMDU
5()(5(1&,$6%,%/,2*5·),&$6
1RVHLQFOX\HQORVWUDEDMRVHPStULFRVUHIHUHQFLDGRVHQHO&XDGURGHO$SpQGLFH
$OJXDFLO 07 2 %DMR 0 0RQWHUR \ 9 2UWV ˜([LVWH FDXVDOLGDG HQWUH
H[SRUWDFLRQHV H LQYHUVLyQ GLUHFWD HQ HO H[WHULRU" $OJXQRV UHVXOWDGRV SDUD HO FDVR
HVSDxRO,QIRUPDFLyQ&RPHUFLDO(VSDxRODQ•QRYLHPEUHGLFLHPEUHSS
$OJXDFLO 0 7 \ 9 2UWV ¦$ PXOWLYDULDWH FRLQWHJUDWHG PRGHO WHVWLQJ IRU
WHPSRUDOFDXVDOLW\EHWZHHQH[SRUWV$QDRXWZDUGIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWWKH6SDQLVKFDVH§
$SSOLHG(FRQRPLFVYROSS
$ORQVR - $ ¦(QIRTXHV SRVWNH\QHVLDQRV GHO FUHFLPLHQWR XQD DSOLFDFLyQ D
(VSDxD§,QIRUPDFLyQ&RPHUFLDO(VSDxRODQ•SS
$ORQVR -$ \ & *DUFLPDUWtQ $ QHZ DSSURDFK WR %DODQFH RI 3D\PHQWV
FRQVWUDLQW-RXUQDORI3RVW.H\QHVLDQ (FRQRPLFVQ•SS
$ORQVR -$ *URZWK DQG WKH H[WHUQDO FRQVWUDLQW OHVVRQV IURP WKH 6SDQLVK
FDVH$SSOLHG(FRQRPLFVYROSS
%DLURFK3(FRQRPLFVDQGZRUOGKLVWRU\+DUYHVWHU:KHDWVKHDI/RQGRQ
%DODJXHU - \ 0 &DQWDYHOOD-RUGi ¦([DPLQLQJ WKH H[SRUWOHG JURZWK
K\SRWKHVLVIRU6SDLQLQWKHODVWFHQWXU\$SSOLHG(FRQRPLFVYROSS
%DODJXHU-\0&DQWDYHOOD-RUGiD6WUXFWXUDOFKDQJHLQH[SRUWVDQGHFRQRPLF
JURZWK FRLQWHJUDWLRQ DQG FDXVDOLW\ DQDO\VLV IRU 6SDLQ § $SSOLHG
(FRQRPLFVYROSS
%DODJXHU-\0&DQWDYHOOD-RUGiE([SRUWFRPSRVLWLRQDQG6SDQLVKHFRQRPLF
JURZWKHYLGHQFHIURPWK FHQWXU\§-RXUQDORI3ROLF\0RGHOLQJYROSS
%DODJXHU-\0&DQWDYHOOD-RUGiF7KHG\QDPLFVRIH[SRUWVLQWKHHFRQRPLF
GHYHORSPHQW SURFHVV D FDXVDOLW\ DQDO\VLV IRU WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ FRXQWULHV
&RPXQLFDFLyQSUHVHQWDGDDO9,,(QFXHQWURGH(FRQRPtD$SOLFDGD9LJRGHMXQLR
%LUG * \ 5DPNLVKHQ 6 5DMDQ ¦(FRQRPLF *OREDOL]DWLRQ +RZ IDU DQG KRZ
PXFKIXUWKHU"§WH[WRPLPHRJUDILDGR
%R[ *(3 \ *& 7LDR ¦,QWHUYHQWLRQ DQDO\VLV ZLWK DSSOLFDWLRQV WR HFRQRPLF
DQGHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPV§-RXUQDORIWKH$PHULFDQ6WDWLVWLFDO$VVRFLDWLRQYRO
SS
%R[ *(3 -HQNLQV *0 \ *& 5HLQVHO 7LPH 6HULHV $QDO\VLV )RUHFDVWLQJ
DQG&RQWURO7KLUG(GLWLRQ3UHQWLFH+DOO
%UXWWRQ +HQU\ - $ 5HFRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI ,PSRUW 6XEVWLWXWLRQ -RXUQDO RI
(FRQRPLF/LWHUDWXUHQ•;;;9,-XQLR
&XDGURV $ 9 2UWV \ 0 $OJXDFLO 2SHQQHVV DQG JURZWK 5HH[DPLQLQJ
IRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQWWUDGHDQGRXWSXWOLQNDJHVLQ/DWLQ$PHULFD 7KH-RXUQDORI
'HYORSPHQW6WXGLHVYROQ•SS
&KDQWKXQ\D & / \ 9 0XULQGH 7UDGH 5HJLPH DQG (FRQRPLFV *URZWK
$VKJDWH3XEOLVKLQJ/WG$OGHUVKRW
'RODGR -- \ + /WNHSRKO ¦0DNLQJ :DOG WHVW ZRUN IRU FRLQWHJUDWHG 9$5
V\VWHPV§(FRQRPHWULF5HYLHZYROSS
'ROODU ' 2XWZDUGRULHQWHG 'HYHORSLQJ (FRQRPLHV 5HDOO\ *URZWK 0RUH
5DSLGO\" (YLGHQFH IURP /'&V (FRQRPLF 'HYHORSPHQW DQG &XOWXUDO
&KDQJHSS
(QJHO 5) DQG %6 <RR &RLQWHJUDWHG HFRQRPLF WLPH VHULHV $ VXUYH\ ZLWK
QHZUHVXOWV'LVFXVVLRQSDSHU58QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD6DQ'LHJR&$
(QJOH 5) \ &:- *UDQJHU ¦&RLQWHJUDWLRQ DQG HUURU FRUUHFWLRQ
5HSUHVHQWDWLRQHVWLPDWLRQDQGWHVWLQJ§(FRQRPHWULFD YROSS
([SyVLWR *DUFtD $ &RPHUFLR H[WHULRU \ FUHFLPLHQWR HFRQyPLFR YLVLyQ
QHRFOiVLFD \ DSOLFDFLyQ DO FDVR GH (VSDxD WHVLV GRFWRUDO GLULJLGD SRU ORV SURIHVRUHV
&DPLOR /HEyQ )HUQiQGH] \ 5RFtR 6iQFKH] /LVVpQ 8QLYHUVLGDG GH 6HUYLOOD WH[WR
PLPHRJUDILDGR
)HUQiQGH],\6HEDVWLiQ0(O6HFWRU([WHULRU\OD,QFRUSRUDFLyQGH(VSDxD
HQOD&(($QiOLVLVDSDUWLUGH)XQFLRQHVGH([SRUWDFLRQHVH,PSRUWDFLRQHV0RQHGD
\&UpGLWRSS
*LOHV -$ \ 6 0LU]D 6RPH SUHWHVWLQJ LVVXHV RQ WHVWLQJ IRU *UDQJHU
QRQFDXVDOLW\(FRQRPHWULFV:RUNLQJ3DSHU 8QLYHUVLW\RI9LFWRULD
*LOHV -$ \ &/ :LOOLDPV D([SRUWOHG *URZWK D 6XUYH\ RI WKH (PSLULFDO
/LWHUDWXUH DQG 6RPH 1RQFDXVDOLW\ 5HVXOWV -RXUQDO RI ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 7UDGH DQG
(FRQRPLF'HYHORSPHQWYROSS
*LOHV -$ \ &/ :LOOLDPV E([SRUWOHG *URZWK D 6XUYH\ RI WKH (PSLULFDO
/LWHUDWXUH DQG 6RPH 1RQFDXVDOLW\ 5HVXOWV -RXUQDO RI ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 7UDGH DQG
(FRQRPLF'HYHORSPHQWYROSS
*RQ]DOR - )LYH DOWHUQDWLYH PHWKRGV RI HVWLPDWLQJ ORQJUXQ HTXLOLEULXP
UHODWLRQVKLSV-RXUQDORI(FRQRPHWULFV YROSS
*RQ]DOR - \ 7DH+Z\ /HH 3LWIDOOV LQ WHVWLQJ IRU ORQJ UXQ UHODWLRQVKLSV
-RXUQDORI(FRQRPHWULFVYROSS
*UDQJHU &:- ,QYHVWLJDWLQJ FDXVDO UHODWLRQV E\ HFRQRPHWULF PRGHOV DQG
FURVVVSHFWUDOPHWKRGV(FRQRPHWULFDYROQ•SS
*UDQJHU &:- \ $$ :HLVV 7LPH VHULHV DQDO\VLV RI HUURU FRUUHFWLRQ
PRGHOVHQ6.DUOLQ7$PHPL\DDQG/$*RRGPDQHGLWRUHV6WXGLHVLQHFRQRPLF
WLPHVHULHVDQGPXOWLYDULDWHVWDWLVWLFV$FDGHPLF3UHVV1HZ<RUN
*UDQJHU &:- 6RPH SURSHUWLHV RI WLPH VHULHV GDWD DQG WKHLU XVH LQ
HFRQRPHWULFPRGHOVSHFLILFDWLRQ-RXUQDORI(FRQRPHWULFVYROSS
*UDQJHU &:- ¦&RLQWHJUDWHG YDULDEOHV DQG HUURUFRUUHFWLRQ PRGHOV§
'LVFXVVLRQSDSHU 8QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD6DQ'LHJR&$
*XLViQ0”& &DXVDOLW\7HVWV,QWHUGHSHQGHQFHDQG0RGHO6HOHFWLRQ
$SSOLFDWLRQWR2(&'FRXQWULHVWorking Paper Series Economic
Development. nº 63, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Santiago de
Compostela.
+DPLOWRQ-'7LPH6HULHV$QDO\VLV3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
+DQVHQ % \ 3&% 3KLOOLSV ¦(VWLPDWLRQ DQG LQIHUHQFH LQ PRGHOV RI
FRLQWHJUDWLRQ$VLPXODWLRQVWXG\§$GYDQFHVLQ(FRQRPHWULFVYROSS
+DXJK$$¦7HVWVIRUFRLQWHJUDWLRQ$0RQWH&DUORFRPSDULVRQ§-RXUQDORI
(FRQRPHWULFVYROSS
+HUUDQ] /RQFiQ $ \ ' 7LUDGR )DEUHJDW /D UHVWULFFLyQ H[WHULRU DOD
FUHFLPLHQWR HFRQyPLFRV HVSDxRO 5HYLVWD GH +LVWRULD (FRQyPLFD DxR
;,9LQYLHUQRQ•SS
,UZLQ ' $$JDLQVWWKH7LGH$QLQWHOOHFWXDO+LVWRU\RIIUHH7UDGH3ULQFHWRQ
8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV3ULQFHWRQ1HZ<RUN
-RKDQVHQ6¦6WDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVRIFRLQWHJUDWLQJYHFWRUV§-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF
'\QDPLFVDQG&RQWUROYROSS
-RKDQVHQ 6 ¦(VWLPDWLRQ DQG K\SRWKHVLV WHVWLQJ RI FRLQWHJUDWLRQ YHFWRUV LQ
JDXVVLDQYHFWRUDXWRUHJUHVVLYHPRGHOV§(FRQRPHWULFD YROSS
-RKDQVHQ 6 \ . -XVHOLXV ¦0D[LPXQ OLNHOLKRRG HVWLPDWLRQ DQG LQIHUHQFH RQ
FRLQWHJUDWLRQ ¤ ZLWK DSSOLFDWLRQV WR WKH GHPDQG IRU PRQH\§ 2[IRUG %XOOHWLQ RI
(FRQRPLFVDQG6WDWLVWLFV YROSS
-XQJ:6\3-0DUVKDOO¦([SRUWV*URZWKDQG&DXVDOLW\,Q
'HYHORSLQJ&RXQWULHV§-RXUQDORI'HYHORSPHQW(FRQRPLFVYROSS
.UHPHUV--0(ULFVVRQ15\-'RODGR¦7KHSRZHURIFRLQWHJUDWLRQWHVW§
2[IRUG%XOOHWLQRI(FRQRPLFVDQG6WDWLVWLFVYROSS
/HyQ /HGHVPD 0 $ D $JJUHJDWH 'HPDQG *URZWK DQG &RQYHUJHQFH 7HVLV
'RFWRUDO8QLYHUVLGDGGH/D/DJXQDWH[WRPLPHRJUDILDGR
/HyQ /HGHVPD 0 $ E $Q DSSOLFDWLRQ RI 7KLUOZDOOV /DZ WR WKH 6SDQLVK
HFRQRP\-RXUQDORI3RVW.H\QHVLDQ(FRQRPLFVQ•SULPDYHUD
/MXQJ*0\*(3%R[¦2QDPHDVXUHRIODFNRIILWLQWLPHVHULHVPRGHOV§
%LRPHWULNDYROSS
/WNHSRKO + &RPSDULVRQ RI FULWHULD IRU HVWLPDWLQJ WKH RUGHU RI D YHFWRU
DXWRUHJUHVVLYHSURFHVV-RXUQDORI7LPH6HULHV$QDO\VLV
0DXOHyQ,8QDIXQFLyQGHH[SRUWDFLRQHVSDUDODHFRQRPtDHVSDxROD
,QYHVWLJDFLRQHV(FRQyPLFDVYRO;Q•SS
0DXOHyQ,&UHFLPLHQWRFRPSHWLWLYLGDG\ODUHVWULFFLyQH[WHULRUXQDQiOLVLVGH
VLPXODFLyQ3URJUDPDGH,QYHVWLJDFLRQHV(FRQyPLFDV)XQGDFLyQ6(3,'7Q•
0DXOHyQ , \ /6DVWUH (O 6DOGR &RPHUFLDO HQ 8Q $QiOLVLV
(FRQRPpWULFR ,QIRUPDFLyQ &RPHUFLDO (VSDxROD Q• 1RYLHPEUH SS
0DXULFLR -$ ¦([DFW 0D[LPXQ /LNHOLKRRG (VWLPDWLRQ RI 6WDWLRQDU\ 9HFWRU
$50$ 0RGHOV§ -RXUQDO RI WKH $PHULFDQ 6WDWLVWLFDO $VVRFLDWLRQ YRO Q• SS
0RQWDxpV $ \ 0 6DQVR $QiOLVLV HVWUXFWXUDO GH ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV \
H[SRUWDFLRQHV GH ELHQHV HQ (VSDxD 5HYLVWD GH (FRQRPtD $SOLFDGD YRO 9,,, Q• SS
2UJDQL]DFLyQ0XQGLDOGHO&RPHUFLR,QIRUPH$QXDO*LQHEUD
2VWHUZDOG/HQXP¦$1RWHZLWK4XDQWLOHVRIWKH$V\PSWRWLF'LVWULEXWLRQRIWKH
0D[LPXQ/LNHOLKRRG&RLQWHJUDWLRQ5DQN7HVW6WDWLVWLF§2[IRUG%XOOHWLQRI(FRQRPLFV
DQG6WDWLVWLFVYROSS
3KLOOLSV3&%\62XOLDULV¦$V\PSWRWLFSURSHUWLHVRIUHVLGXDOEDVHGWHVWVIRU
FRLQWHJUDWLRQ§(FRQRPHWULFD YROSS
3KLOOLSV 3&% ¦2SWLPDO LQIHUHQFH LQ FRLQWHJUDWHG V\VWHPV§ (FRQRPHWULFD
YROSS
5RGULN ' :K\ GR 0RUH 2SHQ (FRQRPLHV +DYH %LJJHU *RYHUQPHQW"
-RXUQDORI3ROLWLFDO(FRQRP\YROSS
5RGULN ' 7KH 1HZ *OREDO (FRQRP\ DQG WKH 'HYHORSLQJ &RXQWULHV 0DNLQJ
2SHQQHVV:RUN2YHUVHDV'HYHORSPHQW&RXQFLO:DVKLQJWRQ'&
5RGUtJXH] ) \ ' 5RGULN 7UDGH 3ROLF\ DQG (FRQRPLF *URZWK $ 6NHSWLFV
*XLGH WR WKH &URVV&RXQWU\ (YLGHQFH &HQWUH IRU (FRQRPLF 3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK
'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHU6HULHVQ•
5RGULN'¦'HYHORSPHQW6WUDWHJLHVIRUWKH1H[W&HQWXU\§+DUYDUG8QLYHUVLW\
IHEUHURWH[WRPLPHRJUDILDGR
5RGULN ' 7KH *OREDO *RYHUQDQFH RI 7UDGH DV LI 'HYHORSPHQW 5HDOO\
0DWWHUHG+DUYDUG8QLYHUVLW\&DPEULGJH0$DEULO
6iQFKH] /DUULyQ 5 (VWLPDFLyQ GH IXQFLRQHV GH FRPHUFLR H[WHULRU HQ
HFRQRPtD PX\ DELHUWDV 8Q HQIRTXH LQWHUWHPSRUDO 7HVLV GRFWRUDO 8QLYHUVLGDG 5H\
-XDQ&DUORV)DFXOWDGGH&LHQFLDV-XUtGLFDV\6RFLDOHV0DGULG
6DFKV - \ $ :DUQHU (FRQRPLF 5HIRUP DQG WKH 3URFHVV RI *OREDO
,QWHJUDWLRQ%URRNLQJV3DSHUVRQ(FRQRPLF$FWLYLW\Q•SS
6WLJOLW]-( (OPDOHVWDUHQODJOREDOL]DFLyQ7DXUXV0DGULG
6WRFN -+ \ 0: :DWVRQ ¦7HVWLQJ IRU FRPPRQ WUHQGV§ -RXUQDO RI WKH
$PHULFDQ6WDWLVWLFDO$VVRFLDWLRQ YROSS
6WRFN -+ ¦$V\PSWRWLFSURSHUWLHVRIOHDVWVTXDUHVHVWLPDWRUVRIFRLQWHJUDWLQJ
YHFWRUV§(FRQRPHWULFDYROSS
7RGD +< ¦)LQLWH VDPSOH SHUIRUPDQFH RI OLNHOLKRRG UDWLR WHVWV IRU
FRLQWHJUDWLQJUDQNVLQYHFWRUDXWRUHJUHVVLRQV§ (FRQRPHWULF7KHRU\YROSS
7RGD+<\7<DPDPRWR¦6WDWLVWLFDOLQIHUHQFHLQYHFWRUDXWRUHJUHVVLRQVZLWK
SRVVLEO\LQWHJUHWHGSURFHVVHV§-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLHWULFVYROSS
:LQWHUV $ ¦7UDGH 3ROLF\ DV 'HYHORSQHQW 3ROLF\ %XLOGLQJ RQ ILIW\ <HDUV
([SHULHQFH§ +LJKOHYHO 5RXQG 7DEOH RQ 7UDGH DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 'LUHFWLRQV IRU
7ZHQW\ILUVW&HQWXU\81&7$'WH[WRPHFDQRJUDILDGR
$3e1',&(6
&XDGURUHVXPHQGHODOLWHUDWXUDHPStULFD
*UiILFRV
$3e1',&(
&8$'525(680(1'(/,7(5$785$(03º5,&$
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
2ULJHQ
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
3HWHU.XJOHU
¦*URZWK([SRUWVDQG&RLQWHJUDWLRQ$Q(PSLULFDO,QYHVWLJDWLRQ§:HOWZLUWVFKDIWOLFKHV$UFKLY
(VWDGRV8QLGRV-DSyQ6XL]D$OHPDQLDGHO2HVWH5HLQR8QLGR\)UDQFLD
7ULPHVWUDO6HULHVGHVHVWDFLRQDOL]DGDVHQRULJHQ
4XDUWHUO\1DWLRQDO$FFRXQWV2(&'(VWDGRV8QLGRV-DSyQ)UDQFLD$OHPDQLDGHO2HVWH\5HLQR
8QLGR
%DVOHU$UEHLWVJUXSSH)U.RQMXQNWXUIRUVFKXQJ6XL]D
*'3VDOYRHQ(VWDGRV8QLGRVHQTXHVHHPSOHD*13H[SRUWDFLRQHVGHELHQHV\VHUYLFLRV
FRQVXPRSULYDGRHLQYHUVLyQEUXWD
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGR
$,&
$OHPDQLDGHO2HVWH(VWDGRV8QLGRV-DSyQ\6XL]D5HLQR8QLGR\)UDQFLD
&RQFRQVWDQWH
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHFRLQWHJUDFLyQHQHOFDVRGH)UDQFLD\$OHPDQLDGHO2HVWH
%DVDGRHQORVUHVXOWDGRV GHODQiOLVLVGHFRLQWHJUDFLyQ
/HV2[OH\
¦&RLQWHJUDWLRQFDXVDOLW\DQGH[SRUW OHGJURZWKLQ3RUWXJDO§(FRQRPLFV/HWWHUV
3RUWXJDO
$QXDO
1XQHV0DWDDQG9DOHULR3RUWXJXHVHHFRQRPLFJURZWK -RXUQDORI(XURSHQ
(FRQRPLF+LVWRU\
*'3UHDO\H[SRUWDFLRQHVGHELHQHV\VHUYLFLRVUHDOHV3UHFLRVFRQVWDQWHVGH
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFN H\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGRUHWDUGRVPRGHORFRQFRQVWDQWH\VLQFRQVWDQWH
1RLQGLFDGR
1RLQGLFDGR
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHDPEDVYDULDEOHVHVWiQFRLQWHJUDGDV
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURUFRQFRQVWDQWH
)3(
&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODUHQWDKDFLDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV
-DOHHO$KPDG6RPFKDL+DUQKLUXQ ¦8QLWURWRVDQGFRLQWHJUDWLRQLQHVWLPDWLQJFDXVDOLW\EHWZHHQH[SRUWVDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWK
(PSLULFDOHYLGHQFHIURPWKH$6($1FRXQWULHV§(FRQRPLFV/HWWHUV )LOLSLQDV,QGRQHVLD0DODVLD6LQJDSXU\7DLODQGLD
$QXDO
:RUOG7DEOHV:RUOG%DQN\
*'3UHDO\H[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHV3UHFLRVFRQVWDQWHVGH
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGRPRGHORFRQFRQVWDQWH\WHQG HQFLD
1RLQGLFDGR
1RLQGLFDGR
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHDPEDVYDULDEOHVHVWiQFRLQWHJUDGDVVRORHQHOFDVRGH6LQJDSXU
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHUVRORSDUDHOFDVRGH6LQJDSXU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURUFRQFRQVWDQWH
1RLQGLFDGRUHWDUGRV
&DXVDOLGDGELGLUHFFLRQDOHQWUHODUHQWD\ODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$QRPD63$EKD\DUDWQH
¦)RUHLJQWUDGHDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWKHYLGHQFHIURP6UL/DQND §$SSOLHG(FRQRPLFV
/HWWHUV
6UL/DQND
$QXDO
$QQXDO5HSRUWV%DQFR&HQWUDOGH6UL/DQND
*'3UHDOH[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHVHLPSRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHV3UHFLRVFRQVWDQWHVGH
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU\'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGRUHWDUGRVPRGHORFRQFRQVWDQWH\
WHQGHQFLD
1RLQGLFDGR
1RLQGLFDGR
&RQFRQVWDQWH
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHODVYDULDEOHVQRHVWiQFRLQWHJUDGDV
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
9$5HQSULPHUDVGLIHUHQFLDV
6&
1LQJXQDUHODFLyQGHFDXVDOLGDGHQWUHUHQWD\FRPHUFLRH[WHULRU
-RKQ7KRUQWRQ
¦&RLQWHJUDWLRQFDXVDOLW\DQGH[SRUW OHGJURZWKLQ0H[LFR §(FRQRPLFV/HWWHUV 0p[LFR
$QXDO
(VWDGtVWLFDV+LVWyULFDVGH0H[LFR7RPRV,\,,,QVWLWXWR1DFLRQDOGH(VWDGtVWLFD
,QWHUQDWLRQDO)LQDQFLDO6WDWLVWLFV<HDUERRN,0)
*'3UHDO\H[SRUWDFLRQHVGHELHQHV\VHUYLFLRVUHDO HV3UHFLRVFRQVWDQWHVGH
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGR
1RLQGLFDGR
1RLQGLFDGR
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHDPEDVYDU LDEOHVHVWiQFRLQWHJUDGDV
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURUFRQFRQVWDQWH
)3(
&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODUHQWD
,UHQH+HQULTXHV3HUU\6DGRUVN\
¦([SRUWOHGJURZWKRUJURZWKGULYHQH[SRUWV"7KH&DQDGLDQFDVH
&DQDGi
$QXDO
VXEPXHVWUDV *'3UHDOH[SRUWDFLRQHVUHD OHV\UDWLRGHYDORUHVXQLWDULRVGHH[SRUWDFLRQHVVREUHLPSRUWDFLRQHV
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGRUHWDUGRVVXILFLHQWHVSDUDREWHQHUUXLGREODQFR\
PRGHORFRQFRQVWDQWH\3KLOOLSV 3HUURQ\UHWDUGRV
$,&6&+4GLDJQRVLVGHUHVLGXRV
VHSUHVHQWDQWDPELpQUHVXOWDGRVSDUDN SDUDYDORUDUODVHQVLELOLGDGGHORVUHVXOWDGRV
&RQFRQVWDQWH
N FRLQWHJUDFLyQHQODVWUHVPXHVWUDVN QRFRLQWHJUDFLyQHQPXHVWUD 7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
9$5HQQLYHOHV
. N &DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODUHQWDKDFLDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH &DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
3KLOLS%RGPDQ
¦2QH[SRUWOHGJURZWKLQ$XVWUDOLDDQG&DQDGD&RLQWHJUDWLRQFDXVDOLW\DQG6WUXFWXUDO6WDELOLW\§
$XVWUDOLDQ(FRQRPLF3DSHUV $XVWUDOLD&DQDGi
7ULPHVWUDOVHULHVGHVHVWDFLRQDOL]DGDVPpWRGRQRLQGLFDGR
,,9
,QWHUQDWLRQDO)LQDQFLDO6WDWLVWLFV,0)$XVWUDOLDQ%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV&$16,0GDWDEDVH
([SRUWDFLRQHVGHELHQHVPDQXIDFWXUDGRVH[SRUWDFLRQHVGHELHQHV\VHUYLFLRVSURGXFWL YLGDGGHOWUDEDMR
HQHOVHFWRUGHPDQXIDFWXUDV\SURGXFWLYLGDGGHOWUDEDMRWRWDO
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGR\3KLOOLSV3HUURQUHWDUGRVHQWUH\PRGHORFRQ
FRQVWDQWH\WHQGHQFLD
7HVW/56&
\GHSHQGLHQGRGHOSDtV\GHOVHFWRUPDQXIDFWXUDVRWRWDO
&RQFRQVWDQWH
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHDPEDVYDULDEOHVHVWiQFRLQWHJUDGDVHQWRGRVORVFDVRV
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURUVLQFRQVWDQWH
6&
&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODSURGXFWLYLGDGGHOWUDEDMR
%HQMDPLQ6&KHQJ4L\X&KX
¦86([SRUWVDQG(FRQRPLF*URZWK&DXVDOLW\§$WODQWLF(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO
(VWDGRV8QLGRV
$QXDO
1RLQGLFDGR
*13UHDOFDSLWDOHPSOHR\H[SRUWDFLRQHVHQWpUPLQRVUHDOHV
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDVGH3KLOOLSV 3HUURQ
)3(
1RLQGLFDGR
1RLQGLFDGR
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHODVYDULDEOHVHVWiQFRLQWHJUDGDV
9HUVLyQGH+VLDRGHOWHVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURUFRQFRQVWDQWH
)3(
&DXVDOLGDGELGLUHFFLRQDOHQWUHODUHQWD\ODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV
-RKQ7KRUQWRQ
¦([SRUWVDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWK(YLGHQFHIURPWKH WK &HQWXU\(XURSH§(FRQRPLFV/HWWHUV $OHPDQLD'LQDPDUFD,WDOLD1RUXHJD5HLQR8QLGR\6XHFLD
$QXDO
0LWFKHOO(XURSHQ+LVWRULFDO6WDWLVWLFV0DFPLOODQ3UHVV/RQGRQ
*13UHDO\H[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHV
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGRPRGHORFRQFRQVWDQWH\WHQGHQFLD \3KLOOLSV
3HUURQ
$,&
1RLQGLFDGR
&RQFRQVWDQWHSDUD'LQDPDUFD$OHPDQLD1RUXHJD\6XHFLD
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHDPEDVYDULDEOHVHVWiQFRLQWHJUDGDVDH[FHSFLyQ GH6XHFLD
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURUFRQFRQVWDQWH9$5HQSULPHUDVGLIHUHQFLDFRQFRQVWDQWHHQHOFDVRGH
6XHFLD
)3(
&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODUHQWDHQ,WDOLD1RUXHJD\6XHFLD
&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODUHQWDKDFLDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVHQHO5HLQR8QLGR
&DXVDOLGDGELGLUHFFLRQDOHQWUHODUHQWD\ODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVHQ'LQDPDUFD\$OHPDQLD
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
(OHDQRU'R\OH
¦([SRUW2XWSXW&DXVDOLW\7KH,ULVK&DVH §$WODQWLF(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO ,UODQGD
$QXDO
1DWLRQDO,QFRPHDQG([SHQGLWXUH$FFRXQWV,UHODQG©V&HQWUDO6WDWLVWLFV2II LFH
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGRFRQFRQVWDQWHVLQWHQGHQFLD\FRQWHQGHQFLD
$,&)3(
&RQWHQGHQFLD\FRQVWDQWH
([LVWHFRLQWHJUDFLyQQRFRQFXHUGDFRQORVUHVXOWDGRVREWHQLGRVGHORVWHVWVGH-RKDQVHQ
HUUyQHRSXHVQRKD\FRLQWHJUDFLyQ
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURU
$,&)3(
&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODUHQWDHQHOFRUWR\ODUJRSOD]R
2OXJEHQJD$2QDIRZRUD2OXZROH2ZR\H
¦&DQ7UDGH/LEHUDOL]DWLRQ6WLPXODWH(FRQRPLF*URZWKLQ$IULFD"§:RUOG'HYHORSPH QW
%XUXQGL&DPHU~Q&{WHG©,YRLUH(WLRStD*KDQD.HQLD0DGDJDVFDU1LJHULD6HQHJDO6XGiQ
7DQ]DQLD\=DPELD
$QXDO
:RUOG'HYHORSPHQW5HSRUW\:RUOG7DEOHV:RUOG%DQN,QWHUQ DWLRQDO)LQDQFLDO6WDWLVWLFV,0)
*'3SHUFiSLWDUHDOUDWLRGHH[SRUWDFLRQHVGHPHUFDQFtDVVREUH*'3UHDOUDWLRGHLQYHUVLyQEUXWD
GRPpVWLFDVREUH*'3YDULDEOHGXPP\GHRULHQWDFLyQH[WHULRURULHQWDFLyQIXHUWH\PRGHUDGDKDFLD
HOH[WHULRU RULHQWDFLyQPRGHUDGDKDFLDHOLQWHULRU RULHQWDFLyQIXHUWHKDFLDHOLQWHULRU
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGR
)3(
1RLQGLFDGR
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHH[LVWHFRLQWHJUDFLyQHQWUHODVYDULDEOHVFRQGRVYHFWRUHVGHFRLQWHJUDFLyQ
%DVDGRHQORVUHVXOWDGRVGHODQiOLVLVGHFRLQWHJUDFLyQ&RQFOX\HQTXHFDPELRVHQODSROtWLFDFRPHUFLDO
\HQODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVWLHQHQXQHIHFWRSRVLWLYR\GXUDGHURVREUHHOFUHFLPLHQWRHFRQyPLFR
0XKDPPHG1,VODP
¦([SRUWH[SDQVLRQDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWKWHVWLQJIRUFRLQWHJUDWLRQDQGFDXVDOLW\§$SSOLHG(FRQRPLFV
%DQJODGHVK)LML)LOLSLQDV+RQJ.RQJ,QGLD,QGRQHVLD-DSyQ&RUHDGHO6XU0DODVLD1HSDO
3DNLVWiQ3DSXD1XHYD*XLQHD6LQJDSXU6UL/DQND7DLODQGLD
$QXDO
,0)2(&':RUOG%DQN8QLWHG1DWLRQV
*'3UHDOH[SRUWDFLRQHVLPSRUWDFLRQHVLQYHUVLyQ\JDVWRS~EOLFR
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGR)3(PRGHORFRQFRQVWDQWH
)3(
1RLQGLFDGR
&RQFRQVWDQWH
(YLGHQFLDGHFRLQWHJUDFLyQHQ%DQJODGHVK,QGLD1HSDO6UL/DQND\)LML
7HVWGH&DXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURUSDUDORVFDVRVHQORVTXHKD\FRLQWHJUDFLyQ\9$5HQSULP HUDV
GLIHUHQFLDVHQHOUHVWR
)3(
&DXVDOLGDGGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODUHQWDHQGHORVSDtVHV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
<RXVLI.$O<RXVLI
¦2QWKH5ROHRI([SRUWVLQWKH(FRQRPLF*URZWKRI0DOD\VLD$ 0XOWLYDULDWH$QDO\VLV§,QWHUQDWLRQDO
(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO
0DODVLD
$QXDO
,QWHUQDWLRQDO)LQDQFLDO6WDWLVWLFV,0)
*'3UHDOH[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHVtQGLFHGHHPSOHRFDSLWDOILMR UHDOHQWpUPLQRVEUXWRVWLSRGHFDPELR
HIHFWLYRUHDOHQWUHULQJJLW\GROODU
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGR\:6$,&
IDVHVPRGHORELYDULDQWHHQWUHUHQWD\H[SRUWDFLRQHVPRGHORPXOWL YDULDQWHFRQWRGDVODVYDULDEOHV
$,&
HQPRGHORELYDULDQWHHQPRGHORPXOWLYDULDQWH
&RQFRQVWDQWH
0RGHORELYDULDQWHQRH[LVWHFRLQWHJUDFLyQ
0RGHORPXOWLYDULDQWHH[LVWHFRLQWHJUDFLyQ
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURU
)3(
&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODUHQWDHQHOFRUWRSOD]R
8UYDVKL'KDZDQ%DJDOD%LVZD O
¦5HH[DPLQLJH[SRUWOHGJURZWKK\SRWKHVLVDPXOWLYDULDWHFRLQWHJUDWLRQDQDO\VLVIRU,QGLD§$SSOLHG
(FRQRPLFV
,QGLD
$QXDO
'*&,6(FRQRPLF6XUYH\*RYHUQPHQWRI,QG LD
*'3UHDOH[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHV\UDWLRGHYDORUHVXQLWDULRVGHH[SRUWDFLRQHVVREUHLPSRUWDFLRQHV
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGR\3KLOOLSV3HUURQ
1RLQGLFDGR
1RLQGLFDGR
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURUFRQFRQVWDQWHQRFRQVWDQWHHQHOYHFWRUGHFRLQWHJUDFLyQ
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHODVYDULDEOHVHVWiQFRLQWHJUDGDV
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURUFRQFRQVWDQWH
1RLQGLFDGRUHWDUGRV
&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODUHQWD\UDWLRGHYDORUHVXQLWDULRVKDFLDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVHQHOODUJR\
FRUWRSOD]RFDXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODUHQWDHQHOFRUWRSOD]R
,PDG$0RRVD
¦,VWKHH[SRUWOHGJURZWKK\SRWKHVLVYDOLGIRU$XVWUDOLD"§$SSOLHG(FRQRPLFV $XVWUDOLD
$QXDO
/LHVQHU2QHKRXQGUHG\HDUVRIHFRQRPLFVWDWLVWLFV7KH(FRQRPLVW3\(FRQRPLF2XWORRN
2(&'
*'3UHDO\H[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHVGHELHQHV\VHUYLFLRV3UHFLRVFRQVWDQWHVGH
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV3KLOOLSV2XOLDULV
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV3KLOOLSV 2XOLDULVDSOLFDGRVREUHORVUHVLGXRVGHXQDUHJUHVLyQVLPSOHHQWUHODV
YDULDEOHV
(YLGHQFLDGHQRFRLQWHJUDFLRQHQWUHYDULDEOHV
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
9$5HQSULPHUDVGLIHUHQFLDV
$SOLFDQHOWHVWVREUHUHWDUGRVHQWUH\
1RH[LVWHQUHODFLRQHVGHFDXVDOLGDGQLDODUJRQLDFRUWRSOD]R
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV 8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$EGXOQDVVHU+DWHPL-0DQXFKHKU,UDQGRXVW
¦([SRUW3HUIRPDQFHDQG(FRQRPLF*URZWK&DXVDOLW\$Q(PSLULFDO$QDO\VLV§$(- 'LQDPDUFD)LQODQGLD1RUXHJD\6XHFLD
7ULPHVWUDO6HULHVGHVHVWDFLRQDOL]DGDVPpWRGRQRLQGLFD GR
,,,,9,,,
4XDUWHUO\1DWLRQDO$FFRXQWV\0DLQ(FRQRPLF,QGLFDWRUV2(&',QWHUQDWLRQDO)LQDQFLDO6WDWLVWLFV
,0)
*'3UHDO\H[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHV
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGRPRGHORFRQFRQVWDQWH
$,&6&7HVW/5UDWLRGHYHURVLPLOLWXGHVGLDJQyVWLFRGHUHVLGXRV
1RLQGLFDGR
1RLQGLFDGR
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHDPEDVYDULDEOHVHVWiQFRLQWHJUDGDVDH[FHSFLyQGH1RUXHJD
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURU
$,&6&7HVW/55 DMXVWDGR
&DXVDOLGDG XQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODUHQWDKDFLDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVHQ'LQDPDUFD
&DXVDOLGDGELGLUHFFLRQDOHQWUHODUHQWD\ODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVHQ)LQODQGLD1RUXHJD\6XHFLD
-DFLQW%DODJXHU0DQXHO&DQWDYHOOD -RUGi
¦([DPLQLQJWKHH[SRUWOHGJURZWKK\SRWKHVLVIRU6SDLQLQWKHODVWFHQWXU\§$SSOLHG(FRQRPLFV/HWWHUV
(VSDxD
$QXDO
&RQWDELOLGDG1DFLRQDOGH(VSDxD%DQFRGH(VSDxD
*'3UHDO\H[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHV
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGR\3KLOOLSV3HUURQ
$,&
1RLQGLFDGR
1RLQGLFDGR
FRLQWHJUDFLyQQRFRLQWHJUDFLyQ FRLQWHJUDFLyQ
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLRQGHHUURUFRQFRQVWDQWH
$,&
FDXVDOLGDGELGLUHFFLRQDOHQWUHODUHQWD\ODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV FDXVDOLGDG
XQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODUHQWD
.KDOLG<RXVLI.KDODIDOOD$ODQ-:HEE
¦([SRUWOHGJURZWKDQGVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHHYLGHQFHIURP0DOD\VLD§$SSOLHG(FRQRPLFV 0DODVLD
7ULPHVWUDOGDWRVDQXDOHVHQ)XHQWHWUDQVIRUPDGRVDWULPHVWUDOHV
,,9GRVVXEPXHVWUDV,,9,,9
'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLD\1DWLRQDO%DQNRI0DOD\VLD
*'3UHDOH[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHVGLYLGLGDVHQPHUFDQFtDVSULPDULDV\PDQXIDFWXUDVHLPSRUWDFLRQHV
UHDOHV
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGR$,&6&\3KLOOLSV3HUURQ
6HDQDOL]DQODVUHODFLRQHVGHFRLQW HJUDFLyQHQFLQFRFDVRVGLIHUHQWHV
&DVRV\*'3H[SRUWDFLRQHVWRWDOHVHLPSRUWDFLRQHV, ,9&DVR,,9
&DVR,,9&DVR
&DVR*'3H[SRUWDFLRQHVGHPDQXIDFWXUDV\H[SRUWDFLRQHVGHPHUFDQFtDVSULPDULDV ,,9
&DVR*'3H[SRUWDFLRQHVGHPDQXIDFWXUDV\H[SRUWDFLRQHVGHPHUFDQFtDVSULPDULDV, ,9
$,&6&
9$5HQQLYHOHV
&RQFRQVWDQWH
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHODVYDULDEOHVHVWi QFRLQWHJUDGDVHQFDVRV\
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURU&DVRV\\9$5HQSULPHUDVGLIHUHQFLDVFDVR
$,&6&
&DVRV\&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVHLPSRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODUHQWDHQHOODUJRSOD]R
&DXVDOLGDGELGLUHFFLRQDOHQHOFRUWRSOD]RHQWUHH[SRUWDFLRQHVLPSRUWDFLRQHV\H[SRUWDFLRQHVUHQWD
&DVR&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODUHQWDKDFLDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV\GHODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODUHQWD
&DVR&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVSULPDULDVKDFLDODUHQWDHQHOODUJRSOD]R
&DVR&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVGHPDQXIDFWXUDVKDFLDODUHQWDHQHOFRUWRSOD]R
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
$XWRUHV
$UWtFXOR
0XHVWUD
3DtVHV
)UHFXHQFLD
3HULRGR
)XHQWH
9DULDEOHV
$QiOLVLV8QLYDULDQWH
$QiOLVLVGH
&RLQWHJUDFLyQ
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
1•GHUHWDUGRV
0RGHOR9(&0
5HVXOWDGRV
$QiOLVLVGH&DXVDOLGDG
0pWRGR
0RGHOR
6HOHFFLyQGHUHWDUGRV
5HVXOWDGRV
7HDPH*KLUPD\5LFKDUG*UDERZVN\6XEDV&6KDUPD
¦([SRUWV,QYHVWPHQWHIILFLHQF\DQGHFRQRPLFJURZWKLQ/'&DQHPSLULFDOLQYHVWLJDWLRQ§$SSOLHG
(FRQRPLFV
(FXDGRU(JLSWR(WLRStD)LOLSLQDV*XDWHPDOD+RQ GXUDV,QGLD-DPDLFD.HQ\D.RUHDGHO6XU
0DODVLD0DUUXHFRV0DXULFLR0p[LFR3DNLVWiQ5HS~EOLFD'RPLQLFDQD6UL/DQND7DLODQGLD\
8UXJXD\
$QXDO
'LVWLQWRSDUDFDGDSDtV PtQLPRREVHUYDFLRQHV
,QWHUQDWLRQDO)LQDQFLDO6WDWLVWLFV,0)
*'3UHDO&DSLWDOILMREUXWRUHDO\H[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHV
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGR)3(3KLOOLSV3HUURQJUiILFRVDFI\SDFI
)3(
1RLQGLFDGR
&RQFRQVWDQWH
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHODVYDULDEOHVHVWiQFRLQWHJUDGDVDH[FHSFLyQGH(FXDGRU(WLRStDºQGLD\
8UXJXD\
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURUHQORVFDVRVHQORVTXHKD\FRLQWHJUDFLyQ\9$5HQSULPHUDVGLIHUHQFLDV
HQHOUHVWR
)3(1•GHUHWDUGRVGHVGHKDVWD
&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODUHQWDHQ &RUHDGHO6XU,QGLD-DPDLFD.HQ\D
0p[LFR\8UXJXD\
&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODUHQWDKDFLDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVHQ(FXDGRU(WLRStD7DLODQGLD
&DXVDOLGDGELGLUHFFLRQDOHQWUHODUHQWD\ODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVHQ&RVWD5LFD)LOLSLQDV0DODVLD0DXULFLR
3DNLVWiQ5HS~EOLFD'RPLQLFDQD\6UL/DQND
$EGXOQDVVHU+DWHPL-
¦([SRUWSHUIRUPDQFHDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWKQH[XVLQ-DSDQDERRWVWUDSDSSURDFK§-DSDQDQGWKH:RUOG
(FRQRP\
-DSyQ
7ULPHVWUDO VHULHVGHVHVWDFLRQDOL]DGDVPHGLDQWHHOPpWRGR;
,,
,QWHUQDWLRQDO)LQDQFLDO6WDWLVWLFV,0)
*'3UHDO\H[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHV
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV.366UHWDUGRVKDVWD\3HUURQUHWDUGR VKDVWDUXLGREODQFR
1RLQGLFDGR
1RLQGLFDGR
1RLQGLFDGR
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHDPEDVYDULDEOHVHVWiQFRLQWHJUDGDV
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGHFRUUHFFLyQGHHUURU
1RLQGLFDGRUHWDUGRV
&DXVDOLGDGELGLUHFFLRQDOHQWUHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV\ODUHQWD
7LWXV$ZRNXVH
¦,VWKH([SRUW/HG*URZWK+\SRWKHVLV 9DOLGIRU&DQDGD"§6WDII3DSHU8QLYHUVLW\RI'HODZDUH
&DQDGi
7ULPHVWUDO
,,9
,0)
*'3UHDOH[SRUWDFLRQHVUHDOHVUDWLRGHYDORUHVXQLWDULRVGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVVREUHODVLPSRUWDFLRQH V
HPSOHRHQPDQXIDFWXUDVIRUPDFLyQEUXWDGHFDSLWDOtQGLFHGHSURGXFFLyQLQGXVWULDOGHSDLVHV
LQGXVWULDOL]DGRV
7HVWGHUDtFHVXQLWDULDV'LFNH\)XOOHU$XPHQWDGR\3KLOOLSV3HUURQUHWDUGRVKDVWD
$,&+4
1RLQGLFDGR
(YLGHQFLDDIDYRUGHTXHH[LVWHFRLQWHJUDFLyQHQWUHODVYDULDEOHVFRQVLGHUDGDV
7HVWGHFDXVDOLGDGGH*UDQJHU
0RGHORGH&RUUHFFLyQGHHUURU\9$5HQQLYHOHV
$,&+4
&DXVDOLGDGXQLGLUHFFLRQDOGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVKDFLDODUHQWDHQHOFRUWR\ODUJRSOD]R
$3e1',&(
*5$),&26
x
x
x
,QVWUXPHQWRVGHLGHQWLILFDFLyQSDUDHOPRGHORXQLYDULDQWHGHOD VHULH3LEUWVHULHV
HVWDQGDUL]DGDV*UiILFRV\
,QVWUXPHQWRVGHLGHQWLILFDFLyQSDUDHOPRGHORXQLYDULDQWHGHODVHULH([U WVHULHV
HVWDQGDUL]DGDV*UiILFRV\
,QVWUXPHQWRV GH GLDJQRVLV SDUD ORV PRGHORV XQLYDULDQWHV \ VHULHV
HVWDQGDUL]DGDV*UiILFRV\
,QVWUXPHQWRVGHLGHQWLILFDFLyQSDUDHODQiOLVLVXQLYDULDQWHGHODVHULH3LEUVHULHVHVWDQGDUL]DGDV
*UiILFR
/Q3LEU
DFI
A_
: V: BB
A
V:
*UiILFR
4 SDFI
’ /Q3LEU
DFI
4 SDFI
A_
: V: BB
A
V:
*UiILFR
’/Q3LEU
DFI
4 SDFI
A_
: V: BB
A
V:
,QVWUXPHQWRVGHLGHQWLILFDFLyQSDUDHODQiOLVLVXQLYDULDQWHGHODVHULH([UVHULHVHVWDQGDUL]DGDV
*UiILFR
/Q([U
DFI
A_
: V: BB
A
V:
*UiILFR
4 SDFI
’ /Q([U
DFI
4 SDFI
A_
: V: BB
A
V:
*UiILFR
’/Q([U
DFI
4 SDFI
A_
: V: BB
A
V:
,QVWUXPHQWRVGHGLDJQRVLVSDUDORVPRGHORVXQLYDULDQWHV¦§\¦§VHULHVHVWDQGDUL]DGDV
*UiILFR
UHVLGXRVPRGHOR
DFI
SDFI
A_
: V: BB
A
V:
*UiILFR
4 UHVLGXRVPRGHOR
DFI
4 SDFI
A_
: V: BB
A
V:
*UiILFR
+LVWRJUDPDUHVLGXRV HVWDQGDUL]DGRVPRGHOR¦§
+LVWRJUDPDUHVLGXRVHVWDQGDUL]DGRVPRGHOR¦§
17 17
16
22
21
14
8
4
11
8
5
3
0
1
1
1
4
0
1
0
YDORUHVIXHUDGHHVSHUDGR
0
0
0
1
0
9
4
4
3
1
0
0
YDORUHVIXHUDGH HVSHUDGR