Environmental emergency management

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IFAC PapersOnLine 52-25 (2019) 35–39
Environmental
Emergency Management
Environmental
Environmental Emergency
Emergency Management
Management
Environmental
Emergency
Management
Emergency Management
Environmental
Environmental
Emergency
Management
Kononov
D.A.
Kononov
D.A.
Kononov
Kononov D.A.
D.A.
Kononov D.A.
Kononov D.A.
Russian
State
University
for
the
Humanities
Russian
State
University
for
the
Humanities
Russian State
State University
University for
for the
the Humanities
Humanities
Russian
Institute
of
Control
Sciences
of
Russian
Academy
of
Sciences
Russian
State
University
for
the
Humanities
Institute
of
Control
Sciences
of
Russian
Academy
of
Sciences
Institute
of
Control
Sciences
of
Russian
Academy
of Sciences
Sciences
Russian
State
University
for the117806,
Humanities
Institute
ofProfsoyuznaya
Control
Sciences
ofMoscow,
Russian
Academy
of
65,
str.,
Russia
Institute
of
Control
Sciences
of
Russian
Academy
of
Sciences
65,
Profsoyuznaya
str.,
Moscow,
117806,
Russia
65,ofProfsoyuznaya
Profsoyuznaya
str.,ofMoscow,
Moscow,
117806,
Russia
Institute
Control
Sciences
Russian
Academy
of
Sciences
65,
str.,
117806,
Russia
phone:
(7-095)
334-90-09
fax:
(7-095)
334-89-59
65, Profsoyuznaya
str., Moscow,
117806,
Russia
phone:
(7-095)
334-90-09
fax:
(7-095)
334-89-59
phone:
(7-095) 334-90-09
334-90-09
fax: (7-095)
(7-095)
334-89-59
65, Profsoyuznaya
str.,
Moscow,
117806,
Russia
phone:
(7-095)
fax:
334-89-59
E-mail:
[email protected]
phone: (7-095)
fax: (7-095) 334-89-59
E-mail:
[email protected]
E-mail:334-90-09
[email protected]
phone: (7-095)
334-90-09
fax: (7-095) 334-89-59
E-mail:
[email protected]
E-mail: [email protected]
E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract:
the
results of
a study of
the possibility
of
managing
environmental
emergencies
are
reviewed.
Abstract:
the
of
of
of
managing
environmental
emergencies
are
Abstract:
the
results
of
study
of
the
possibility
of
managing
environmental
emergencies
are
reviewed.
Abstract:
theofresults
results
of aaa study
studyemergencies
of the
the possibility
possibility
of their
managing
environmental
emergencies
are reviewed.
reviewed.
The
concept
environmental
is
given,
classification
and
sources
are
indicated.
A
work
Abstract:
the
results
of
a
study
of
the
possibility
of
managing
environmental
emergencies
are
reviewed.
The
concept
of
environmental
emergencies
is
given,
their
classification
and
sources
are
indicated.
A
work
The
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Abstract:
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possibility
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emergencies
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environmental
emergencies
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their
classification
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sources
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A work
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classification
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uation,
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the
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the of
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scenarios
for
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ofprevent
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criteria,
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to
of
the
Russian
Federation
is
considered.
The
typical
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scenarios
for
the
realization
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and
the
emergence
of
environmental
emergencies,
evaluation
criteria,
as
well
as
possible
ways
to
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and
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emergence
of
emergencies,
evaluation
criteria,
as
as
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of
Russian
Federation
is considered.
The typical
development
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the realization
ofprevent
threats
andthe
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emergence
of environmental
environmental
emergencies,
evaluation
criteria,
as well
wellfor
as possible
possible
ways to
to
prevent
them
are
considered.
and
the
emergence
of environmental emergencies, evaluation criteria, as well as possible ways to prevent
them
are
considered.
them
are
considered.
and
of environmental emergencies, evaluation criteria, as well as possible ways to prevent
themthe
areemergence
considered.
them
are
considered.
© 2019,
(Internationalemergency,
Federation management,
of Automatic Control)
Hosting
by ElsevierKuzbass
Ltd. Allcoal
rights
reserved.
Keywords:
environmental
sustainable
development,
basin.
them
areIFAC
considered.
Keywords:
environmental
Keywords:
emergency,
management,
sustainable
development,
Kuzbass
coal
basin.
Keywords: environmental
environmental emergency,
emergency, management,
management, sustainable
sustainable development,
development, Kuzbass
Kuzbass coal
coal basin.
basin.
Keywords: environmental emergency, management, sustainable development, Kuzbass coal basin.
Keywords: environmental emergency, management, sustainable development, Kuzbass coal basin.
gram was
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1. INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
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1.
INTRODUCTION
pollution.
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acter
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time,
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same
time,
in
many(BSECs)
regions
of the
the world
world
natural
environmental
[Kononov
D.A.
(1999),
(2001)].
emergencies
(tsunamis,
volcanoes,
fires,
methods
based
on
scenario
studies
of
complex
systems
[Kononov
D.A.
(1999),
(2001)].
time,
in
many
regions
of
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world
natural
environmental
emergencies
(BSECs)
(tsunamis,
volcanoes,
fires,
floods,
[Kononov
D.A.
(1999),
(2001)].
methods
on scenario
studies of complex systems
[Kononovbased
D.A. (1999),
(2001)].
emergencies
(BSECs)
(tsunamis,
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fires,
time,
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regions
of the
natural environmental
emergencies
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(tsunamis,
volcanoes,
fires, floods,
floods,
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2405-8963
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IFAC
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impact on the
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10.1016/j.ifacol.2019.12.442
D.A. Kononov / IFAC PapersOnLine 52-25 (2019) 35–39
36
– analysis of the possibility of managing environmental
emergencies;
We distinguish between the main sources of environmental
emergencies: natural and man-made.
– development of methods and for principles for an automated environmental emergency management system.
World statistics of natural sources is presented in Fig. 1
[The Emissions Gap report 2017].
2. CONCEPT AND CLASSIFICATION OF
EMERGENCY ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATIONS
Currently, the concept of an “environmental emergency” is
not defined by any approved official documents of the Russian Federation. A number of authors propose the following
verbal definition: environmental emergency - deviation
from the natural or normal state of the environment, which
occurred as a result of a natural disaster or human economic
activity and led to negative consequences of an economic,
environmental and social nature. representing a threat to life
and health of people, objects of the national economy and
elements of the environment in a limited area. As follows
from this definition, an emergency ecological situation is
considered not only as a result of extreme co-existence, as a
natural disaster, but also as a possible result of anthropogenic activity. Note the characteristic features of environmental emergencies:
Note signs of environmental emergencies:
– danger to life and health of a significant number of people;
– a significant violation of the ecological balance;
Fig. 1. World statistics of natural sources of environmental
emergencies.
The following main types of such situations can be distinguished from the variety of anthropogenic environmental
emergencies due to their occurrence (Fig. 2):
– chemical accidents;
– fires and explosions;
– radiation accidents;
– transport accidents and accidents on pipelines.
World statistics of man-made sources is presented in Fig. 2
[https://yandex.ru].
– failure of life support systems;
– significant material and environmental damage;
– the need to attract forces and means of emergency response;
– psychological discomfort for large groups of people.
The most serious environmental emergencies are called
environmental disaster (environmental catastrophe). They
are characterized by extraordinary events of especially large
scale, caused by changes in the state of the land, atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere, negatively affecting
people's health, their spiritual sphere, living environment,
economy and gene pool.
Fig. 2. World statistics of technological environmental
emergencies.
The environmental emergency zone is a part of the territory
officially declared by the state (city, region, region), which
clearly shows signs of the destruction of ecological systems
of nature, global environmental pollution, depletion of
water, land, plant and animal resources, where there is a
sharp an increase in morbidity and mortality, many times
exceeding the average for the region indicators.
The zone of ecological disaster – the relevant parts of the
territory officially declared by the state (city, region, territory, region), where signs were marked: complete destruction
of ecological systems of nature, global pollution of atmospheric air, water bodies, soils, complete depletion of aquatic, plant, animal resources, high morbidity and mortality
rates.
Fig. 3. Consequences of man-made activities.
D.A. Kononov / IFAC PapersOnLine 52-25 (2019) 35–39
37
The consequences of the occurrence of technological activity are presented in Fig. 3.
Currently developed and using a number of formalized
methods for studying environmental emergencies, which
can be grouped into the following groups:
Statistics of man-made environmental emergencies are
presented in Fig. 4 [https://yandex.ru].
1. ecology methods
– methods of studying environmental factors: physical,
chemical, biological;
– methods for studying the effects of environmental factors
on the organism and ecosystems;
2. observation methods
– methods for recording monitoring and evaluating environmental parameters;
– methods of quantitative accounting of organisms, biomass
and productivity;
– methods of monitoring and bioindication;
Fig. 4. Consequences of technological activity.
3. experimental methods
– laboratory;
To analyze the degree of danger of the environmental situation in the regions of the Russian Federation, an “ecological
index
of
the
region”
is
calculated
(Fig. 5)
[https://yandex.ru].
– full-scale;
4. simulation methods
– material models;
– ideal (verbal, mathematical, graphic, imitation).
To build adequate models for studying environmental
emergencies, it is necessary to build a hierarchy of formalized concepts. The study identified the following concepts.
Fig. 5. The ecological level of the regions of Russia.
The proposed characteristics of assessing environmental
situations in the regions are used to predict them and determine the necessary measures to improve the macroeconomic and environmental indicators of the region.
3. RESEARCH METHODS OF EMERGENCY
ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATIONS
Following [Keeler E. (1972)], under the pollution in modeling it is usually understood the stock or flow of substances
that reduce the ability of a person to non-productive consumption of goods. Such a definition of pollution in a general sense includes a very wide range of phenomena from
water and air pollution to soil exhaustion if it is excessively
used, but it does not rely on the concept of “safety of operation and development”.
Challenge is a collection of circumstances, not necessarily
specifically threatening, but requiring response to them. A
challenge represents phenomena and processes that currently do not call into question security, but if a number of
specific measures are not taken, security will be difficult to
achieve or even impossible in the future. In essence, the
challenge is determined by the existence of indirect negative factors, which in their development can lead to undesirable conditions. conflict situation, substantially change
and create a direct threat. The call characteristic is the expected time of the hazard.
Danger is a well-understood, but not fatal, possibility of an
undesirable situation or situation, determined by the presence of objective and subjective factors with damaging
properties. It represents an objectively existing possibility
of negative impact, as a result of which the state of the
object may deteriorate. Danger is a property of Nature.
Hazard characteristics - the likelihood of an adverse event
occurring, damage.
Safety is the expected absence of danger.
Risk is a system parameter, a property of the control system
(decision-making), in particular, the decision maker. The
property lies in the fact that such management decisions can
be made that may entail the possibility of the occurrence of
undesirable phenomena as a result of the decision made, i.e.
D.A. Kononov / IFAC PapersOnLine 52-25 (2019) 35–39
38
risk of man-made hazard. Risk characteristics – the likelihood of adverse events, the damage, the degree of risk.
Threat is a factor (phenomenon), the realization of which
can lead to the possibility of the realization of undesirable
phenomena (situations). When examining a system object
under threat, we will understand the totality of factors of the
system and the external environment, which, from the point
of view of decision-makers, can lead to a significant deterioration of its parameters.
4. MANAGEMENT OF EMERGENCY
ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATIONS
The implementation of the environmental emergency management process requires the definition of
– environmental safety targets;
– criteria for safe operation and development of a managed
object: they usually consist of predetermined critical values
of target indicators, or undesirable tendencies of their development;
– models, methods and control mechanisms;
– criteria for evaluating management efficiency.
When the specified components of the management model
are identified, development monitoring is carried out - regular assessment of target indicators and comparison of their
values with acceptable ones. In the course of monitoring,
they track the development trends and predict crisis phenomena.
A crisis phenomenon is a situation in which at least one
value of the target indicator falls below a critical value or a
tendency of undesirable development is observed.
The management of safe development is carried out by
acting on the controlled components. Of these, select those
for which the impact will be most effective for solving the
set formal problem. Determine the necessary (the principle
of the minimum necessary impact) and sufficient changes
to the components to exit the system from the crisis (the
principle of sufficiency). The results are checked on a graph
model (cognitive map of the ecological situation). Out of
the possible choices, impacts that, as far as possible, approximate the tendency of changes in its indicators to their
development targets.
Such an approach allows not only to bring the system out of
the crisis, but also to prevent its occurrence, to control development, correcting the scenario of changing parameters
in order to effectively achieve the target result.
2) high alert – characterized by the availability of information about the signs of a potential threat of an environmental emergency.
3) emergency – characterized by circumstances, the combination of which in accordance with existing regulations is
defined as an emergency.
4) elimination of the consequences of an environmental
emergency – characterized by the absence of active damaging factors of the environmental emergency.
For the formation of goal-setting and selection of strategies
for managing environmental emergencies, it is necessary to
classify the environmental situation in terms of safety.
A crisis situation is a situation in which, without proper
management, going beyond the security limits follows, with
several methods of control that can keep the system functioning within security can be found by methods of seeking
reverse control.
The critical situation is the situation, i.e. configuration of
values of essential parameters of the system, in which,
without proper control, the overstepping of safety limits
follows, with the methods of seeking reverse control, the
only control option that preserves the functioning of the
system within safety limits can be found.
An intermediate situation is an uncontrollable situation this is a situation where, when an overflow is detected, it is
impossible to find management solutions to avoid an emergency.
An emergency situation is an unfavorable combination of
factors and circumstances that violate the conditions of
their normal life activity, which impede production, business, household and other activities. An emergency situation is characterized by the release of target parameters
beyond the permissibility limit.
On the basis of these definitions, one can verbally and formally formulate the tasks of environmental emergency
management, including:
– classification of states;
– optimal monitoring;
– determine the possibility of deterioration of the state of
objects;
– determine the possibility of managing states.
In the process of research, the main modes of environmental emergency management are highlighted:
The main task of management in accordance with this classification of the states of a given set of potentially dangerous system elements at given time points is to determine the
possibility of controlled transitions from the current state to
the more desirable one.
1) daily activities – characterized by the lack of information
on clear signs of the threat of an emergency environmental
situation.
5. STUDY OF THE ECOLOGICAL SITUATION OF THE
KUZBASS REGION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
As an application of the proposed research methodology,
models of environmental management in the Kuzbass coal
D.A. Kononov / IFAC PapersOnLine 52-25 (2019) 35–39
basin of the Russian Federation are considered. In Fig. 6
shows a cognitive map of the ecological situation in the
region.
The region has a mechanism to strictly limit the cumulative
release of harmful substances into the environment by all
industrial enterprises, mainly coal waste. This means that
each enterprise acquires a quota for pollution on the market,
within which it carries out emission of harmful substances
associated with production. If the company for any reason
goes beyond the quota allocated to it, it loses its license for
production activities. The quota allocation mechanism is a
market one, i.e. quotas can be objects of sale, and for their
possession a competitive struggle can unfold. We note that
the level that limits aggregate emissions is not determined
by the quota demand in the market, but is set by the regional administration, for example, by the municipality.
39
increasing in amplitude fluctuations in the population size
increase pollution due to household and industrial pollution.
For the constructed model, the sufficient conditions for
impulse stability were not fulfilled; therefore, an effective
control mechanism was not found.
As part of this study, a new method of finding effective
management was applied, based on the study of basic scenarios, to solve the inverse problem of management. This
made it possible to determine the optimal structure of the
cognitive map of the socio-ecological situation in the region
and to develop effective economic, legal, environmental
and social mechanisms for coordinating regional development goals.
The proposed method is based on the study of the Jordan
form of the adjacency matrix of the cognitive graph of the
Kuzbass region.
7. CONCLUSION
The proposed methods of formalizing basic concepts allow
building emergency management models in order to solve
basic management tasks with specified types of constraints,
including coordinating private and general social goals.
The presented results allow us to hope that the proposed
new models and research methods can be useful and used
as mathematical and methodological support in automated
systems for managing emergency environmental situations.
REFERENCES
Fig. 6. Cognitive map of the Kuzbass region.
In the course of this study, the tasks of environmental management are considered on the basis of building and analyzing a cognitive map of the socio-ecological situation of the
Kuzbass region.
To set a management task, it is necessary to specify the
control variables of the tasks, target indicators and criteria
for effective management:
– control variables (controls): the number of enterprises, the
level of competition, the maximum level of emission of
harmful substances; cognitive map structure.
– target indicators: the quality of life of the population and
the likelihood of an environmental emergency.
The task is to find managements that ensure the quality of
life does not decrease and the likelihood of an environmental emergency to occur is reduced.
In this formulation, the direct control problem was considered in [Kononov D.A. (2008)]. At the same time, the typical scenario of the development of the ecological situation
in the region is unfavorable. Fluctuations in the number of
enterprises leads to fluctuations in the level of employment
of the population, which “shakes” the migration processes:
Gleick P.H. (1991). Gleick P.H. Environment and Security:
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Kononov D.A. (1999). Kononov D.A., Kosyachenko S.A.,
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Kononov D.A. (2001) Kononov D.A., Kul’ba V.V, and
Shubin A.N. Stability of socioeconomic systems:
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