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Banco Central de Chile Documentos de Trabajo Central Bank of Chile Working Papers N° 99 Junio 2001 UN INDICADOR LÍDER DEL IMACEC Felipe Bravo Helmut Franken La serie de Documentos de Trabajo en versión PDF puede obtenerse gratis en la dirección electrónica: http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm. Existe la posibilidad de solicitar una copia impresa con un costo de $500 si es dentro de Chile y US$12 si es para fuera de Chile. Las solicitudes se pueden hacer por fax: (56-2) 6702231 o a través de correo electrónico: [email protected] Working Papers in PDF format can be downloaded free of charge from: http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm. Printed versions can be ordered individually for US$12 per copy (for orders inside Chile the charge is Ch$500.) Orders can be placed by fax: (56-2) 6702231 or email: [email protected]. BANCO CENTRAL DE CHILE CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE La serie Documentos de Trabajo es una publicación del Banco Central de Chile que divulga los trabajos de investigación económica realizados por profesionales de esta institución o encargados por ella a terceros. El objetivo de la serie es aportar al debate de tópicos relevantes y presentar nuevos enfoques en el análisis de los mismos. La difusión de los Documentos de Trabajo sólo intenta facilitar el intercambio de ideas y dar a conocer investigaciones, con carácter preliminar, para su discusión y comentarios. La publicación de los Documentos de Trabajo no está sujeta a la aprobación previa de los miembros del Consejo del Banco Central de Chile. Tanto el contenido de los Documentos de Trabajo, como también los análisis y conclusiones que de ellos se deriven, son de exclusiva responsabilidad de su(s) autor(es) y no reflejan necesariamente la opinión del Banco Central de Chile o de sus Consejeros. The Working Papers series of the Central Bank of Chile disseminates economic research conducted by Central Bank staff or third parties under the sponsorship of the Bank. The purpose of the series is to contribute to the discussion of relevant issues and develop new analytical or empirical approaches in their analysis. The only aim of the Working Papers is to disseminate preliminary research for its discussion and comments. Publication of Working Papers is not subject to previous approval by the members of the Board of the Central Bank. The views and conclusions presented in the papers are exclusively those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Central Bank of Chile or of the Board members. Documentos de Trabajo del Banco Central de Chile Working Papers of the Central Bank of Chile Huérfanos 1175, primer piso. Teléfono: (56-2) 6702475 Fax: (56-2) 6702231 Documento de Trabajo N° 99 Working Paper N° 99 UN INDICADOR LÍDER DEL IMACEC Felipe Bravo Helmut Franken Analista Económico Gerencia de Análisis Macroeconómico Banco Central de Chile Economista Senior Gerencia de Análisis Macroeconómico Banco Central de Chile Resumen En este trabajo se propone un indicador líder de la actividad económica en Chile con el objeto de servir como modelo satélite para proyecciones de corto plazo. Para ello se presenta una metodología de identificación de series líderes para luego construir algunos indicadores alternativos, seleccionando aquél que entrega las mejores señales con respecto de cambios de fase en el ciclo de la actividad económica medida por el IMACEC. Abstract This paper proposes a leading indicator for economic activity in Chile as a satellite model for short run forecasting purposes. A methodology to identify series that anticipate economic activity is presented in the first place. Then, some alternative leading indicators are constructed and evaluated. Among these indicators, we select the one that is most successful in terms of signaling business cycles turnovers. _____________________ Este trabajo se realizó en el marco del área de investigación y desarrollo de modelos de la Gerencia de Análisis Macroeconómico del Banco Central de Chile. Se agradecen los comentarios recibidos por parte de los participantes en un seminario interno de investigación y políticas junto con los aportes de Christian Johnson. Las opiniones presentadas en el artículo no representan necesariamente la visión del Banco Central de Chile. 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grqgh ho idfwru gh srqghudflöq/ hq ho fdvr gho Oðghu 6/ hv ixqflöq gh xqd qrwd gh hydoxdflöq sdud fdgd vhulh txh frqwlhqh hohphqwrv vxemhwlyrv1 Xqd irupd päv remhwlyd gh srqghudflöq fruuhvsrqgh d xq 4: surphglr srqghudgr txh dvljqd xq idfwru gh srqghudflöq päv dowr d odv vhulhv päv lqirupdwlydv | phqru srqghudflöq d dtxhoodv vhulhv päv uxlgrvdv1 Sdud hvwrv sursövlwrv hv qhfhvdulr rfxsdu dqäolvlv gh idfwruhv1 Vlq hpedujr/ od dsol0 fdflöq gh hvwh wlsr gh olwhudwxud hq HH1XX1 qr kd duurmdgr frqfoxvlrqhv px| surphwhgrudv/ sxhv oxhjr gh xq frpsohmr surfhvr gh hvwlpdflöq vh rewlhqhq lqglfdgruhv px| vlploduhv d orv gh od phwrgrorjðd QEHU wudglflrqdo54 1 Xq frurodulr gh hvwh uhvxowdgr hv txh od irupd gh srqghudflöq qr hv px| uhohydqwh1 Sru frqvljxlhqwh/ xq pd|ru hvixhu}r hq hvwh vhqwlgr/ vl elhq lpsolfd xq phmr0 udplhqwr phwrgroöjlfr/ suredeohphqwh qr vljqlfd xqd phmrud vljqlfdwlyd hq ho lqglfdgru sursxhvwr1 Hq frqfoxvlöq/ fuhhprv txh od phwrgrorjðd hpsohdgd | ho lqglfdgru sursxhvwr sru hvwh 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Lqvwlwxwr 57 64 65 66 67 68 69 6: 6; 6< 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 7: 7; 7< 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 8: 8; 8< 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 9: 9; 9< :3 :4 :5 Txlheudv hpsuhvdv/ Ilvfdoðd Qdflrqdo gh Txlheudv DGULDQ surphglr gho phv/ Erovd Hohfwuöqlfd LSVD surphglr gho phv/ Erovd gh Frphuflr LJSD surphglr gho phv/ Erovd gh Frphuflr Wdvd gh Fdswdflöq <30698/ EFFk Ohwudv Klsrwhfduldv WLU/ Erovd gh Frphuflr Yhqwdv gh dxwrpöylohv +DQDF, Frqvxpr hoìfwulfr lqgxvwuldo/ VII5 8 Yhqwdv Elhqhv gh Frqvxpr Kdelwxdo/ LQH Yhqwdv Elhqhv gh Frqvxpr Kdelwxdo/ VII Yhqwdv Elhqhv gh Frqvxpr Gxudeoh/ LQH Yhqwdv Elhqhv gh Frqvxpr Gxudeoh/ VII Yhqwdv Vxshuphufdgrv/ LQH Yhqwdv Vxshuphufdgrv/ FQF5 9 Yhqwdv Frphuflr Plqrulvwd/ FQF Fuìglwrv gh Frqvxpr uhdohv/ VELI Yhqwdv Lqgxvwuldohv gh Elhqhv gh Fdslwdo/ LQH Yhqwdv Lqgxvwuldohv gh Elhqhv gh Fdslwdo/ VII Ghvsdfkr gh Pdwhuldohv Lqgxvwuldohv gh Frqvwuxfflöq/ FFkF5 : Ghvsdfkr gh Fhphqwr/ FFkF Ghvsdfkr gh Ilhuur/ FFkF Ghvsdfkr gh Krupljöq/ FFkF Surgxfflöq Iðvlfd/ VII Yhqwdv Iðvlfdv/ VII Surgxfflöq vlq Freuh/ LQH Yhqwdv vlq Freuh/ LQH Surgxfflöq Plqhud/ LQH Jhqhudflöq Hoìfwulfd/ LQH Jhqhudflöq Klgurhoìfwulfd/ LQH Sduwlflsdflöq gh od jhqhudflöq klgurhoìfwulfd ghqwur gho wrwdo/ LQH Glvwulexflöq Hoìfwulfd/ LQH Yhqwdv gh Hqhujðd Vlvwhpd Lqwhufrqhfwdgr Fhqwudo hq Jz2k/ FGHF0VLF Hglfdflöq Wrwdo Reudv Qxhydv +4333p5,/ LQH Hglfdflöq Wrwdo Reudv Qxhydv +4333p5,/ LQH Hglfdflöq Reudv Qxhydv ylylhqgd/ LQH Hglfdflöq Reudv Qxhydv lqgxvwuldv | vhuylflrv/ LQH Rihuwd gho Phufdgr Lqpreloldulr/ FFkF Yhqwdv gho Phufdgr Lqpreloldulr/ FFkF Phvhv Vwrfn gho Phufdgr Lqpreloldulr/ FFkF Yhqwdv gh Elhqhv Lqwhuphglrv gh Frqvwuxfflöq/ VII Yhqwdv gh Pdwhuldohv gh Frqvwuxfflöq d Suryhhgruhv/ FFkF Fuìglwrv gh Ylylhqgd/ +VELI, 58 Vrflhgdg gh Irphqwr Ideulo/ VRIRID1 Qdflrqdo gh Frphuflr 5: Fäpdud Fklohqd gh od Frqvwuxfflöq 59 Fäpdud 58 :6 Lpsruwdflrqhv Frqvxpr/ Edqfr Fhqwudo gh Fkloh/ EFFk :7 Lpsruwdflrqhv Frqvxpr/ Edqfr Fhqwudo gh Fkloh/ EFFk :8 Lpsruwdflrqhv Fdslwdo/ EFFk :9 Lpsruwdflrqhv Lqwhuphglrv/ EFFk :: Lpsruwdflrqhv Frpexvwleohv | Oxeulfdqwhv/ EFFk :; Lpsruwdflrqhv Qr Frpexvwleohv | Oxeulfdqwhv/ EFFk :< Lpsruwdflrqhv Wrwdohv IRE/ EFFk ;3 Yduldflöq hq 45 phvhv gh odv lpsruwdflrqhv wrwdohv ;4 H{sruwdflrqhv lqgxvwuldohv/ EFFk ;5 H{sruwdflrqhv plqhudv/ EFFk ;6 H{sruwdflrqhv gh djulfxowxud/ vloylfxowxud | shvfd/ EFFk ;7 H{sruwdflrqhv wrwdohv IRE/ EFFk ;8 H{sruwdflrqhv wrwdohv yduldflöq hq 45 phvhv ;9 H{sruwdflrqhv freuh/ EFFk ;: H{sruwdflrqhv qr freuh/ EFFk ;; H{sruwdflrqhv sulqflsdohv qr freuh/ EFFk ;< H{sruwdflrqhv uhvwr/ EFFk <3 Edodq}d Frphufldo/ EFFk <4 Edodq}d Frphufldo yduldflöq dfxpxodgd/ EFFk <5 Suhflr qrplqdo freuh/ Eorrpehuj <6 Suhflr uhdo freuh <7 Wdvd Ghvhpsohr qdflrqdo/ LQH <8 Wdvd Ghvhpsohr Ghvhvwdflrqdol}dgr <9 Wdvd Ghvhpsohr Uhjlöq Phwursrolwdqd/ LQH <: Wlsr gh Fdpelr Uhdo/ EFFk <; Ud}öq Sdvdmhurv Nloöphwurv/ Gluhfflöq gh Dhurqäxwlfd Flylo << Lqglfh gh frqglflrqhv h{whuqdv 4/ EFFk 433 Lqglfh gh frqglflrqhv h{whuqdv 5/ EFFk 434 Lqglfh gh Frqglflrqhv Prqhwduldv/ EFFk 435 Wìuplqrv gh Lqwhufdpelr/ EFFk 436 Vsuhdg +suf;0suef<3,1 59 Documentos de Trabajo Banco Central de Chile Working Papers Central Bank of Chile NÚMEROS ANTERIORES PAST ISSUES La serie de Documentos de Trabajo en versión PDF puede obtenerse gratis en la dirección electrónica: http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm. Existe la posibilidad de solicitar una copia impresa con un costo de $500 si es dentro de Chile y US$12 si es para fuera de Chile. Las solicitudes se pueden hacer por fax: (56-2) 6702231 o a través de correo electrónico: [email protected] Working Papers in PDF format can be downloaded free of charge from: http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm. Printed versions can be ordered individually for US$12 per copy (for orders inside Chile the charge is Ch$500.) Orders can be placed by fax: (56-2) 6702231 or email: [email protected] DTBC-98 Series de Términos de Intercambio de Frecuencia Mensual para la Economía Chilena: 1965-1999 Herman Bennett y Rodrigo Valdés Mayo 2001 DTBC-97 Estimaciones de los Determinantes del Ahorro Voluntario de los Hogares en Chile (1988 y 1997) Andrea Butelmann y Francisco Gallego Mayo 2001 DTBC-96 El Ahorro y el Consumo de Durables Frente al Ciclo Económico en Chile: ¿Consumismo, Frugalidad, Racionalidad? Francisco Gallego, Felipe Morandé y Raimundo Soto Mayo 2001 DTBC-95 Una Revisión del Comportamiento y de los Determinantes del Ahorro en el Mundo Norman Loayza, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel y Luis Servén Mayo 2001 DTBC-94 International Portfolio Diversification: The Role of Risk and Return César Calderón, Norman Loayza y Luis Servén Abril 2001 DTBC-93 Economías de Escala y Economías de Ámbito en el Sistema Bancario Chileno Carlos Budnevich, Helmut Franken y Ricardo Paredes Abril 2001 DTBC-92 Estimating ARMA Models Efficiently Rómulo Chumacero Abril 2001 DTBC-91 Country Portfolios Aart Kraay, Norman Loayza, Luis Servén y Jaime Ventura Abril 2001 DTBC-90 Un Modelo de Intervención Cambiaria Christian A. Johnson Diciembre 2000 DTBC-89 Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa Janine Aron y John Muellbauer Diciembre 2000 DTBC-88 Monetary Policy in Chile: A Black Box? Angel Cabrera y Luis Felipe Lagos Diciembre 2000 DTBC-87 The Monetary Transmission Mechanism and the Evaluation of Monetary Policy Rules John B. Taylor Diciembre 2000 DTBC-86 Se Busca una Raíz Unitaria: Evidencia para Chile Rómulo Chumacero Diciembre 2000 DTBC-85 Un Estudio del Ahorro Agregado por Agentes Económicos en Chile Herman Bennett, Norman Loayza y Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Diciembre 2000 DTBC-84 Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile Christian A. Johnson Noviembre 2000 DTBC-83 The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the United Kingdom: Pass-Through & Policy Rules Alastair Cunningham y Andrew G. Haldane Octubre 2000
