74 3HUVSHFWLYDVGHODVLWXDFLRQ HQHUJpWLFDPXQGLDO /DVRSRUWXQLGDGHV SDUD&RORPELD Arturo Infante Villarreal Ingeniero Industrial, M.Sc., PhD. Ex rector de la UniversiGDGGHORV$QGHV%RJRWi'&&RORPELD [email protected] RESUMEN. &DVLODFXDUWDSDUWHGHODHQHUJtDTXHFRQVXPH posibilidades de participar en los mercados nacionales e Estados Unidos proviene de petróleo importado y sólo internacionales de los biocombustibles sustitutos, tanto el 6% se origina en fuentes renovables, aunque el país de la gasolina como del diesel con etanol y biodiesel, produce 20% de la polución ambiental mundial y tiene UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH/DSDOPDGHDFHLWHODFDxDGHD]~FDU VyORGHODSREODFLyQWRWDO/RVELRFRPEXVWLEOHVVRQ y la yuca constituyen las materias primas con mayor po- una fuente potencial de energía renovable para Estados tencial. Unidos, y el resto del mundo, porque tienen un balance PALABRAS CLAVE energético y ambiental bastante favorable. Si las con- Energía consumida, fuentes de energía, petróleo, energía diciones de precios son adecuadas para los productores renovable; balance energético, ambiental, financiero de las materias primas, los biocombustibles también y social; análisis de ciclo vital, biocombustibles, etanol, WLHQHQ XQ LPSDFWR VRFLDO LPSRUWDQWH &RORPELD WLHQH etanol celulósico, biodiesel de palma. 2XWORRNRI :RUOG(QHUJ\6WDWXV 2SSRUWXQLWLHVIRU&RORPELD ABSTRACT. Almost one fourth of the energy consumed possibility to participate in the national and internatio- in the U.S. comes from imported oil and only 6% is nal biofuel substitution markets for gasoline and diesel produced from renewable sources despite the fact that ZLWK HWKDQRO DQG ELRGLHVHO UHVSHFWLYHO\ 2LO 3DOP 6X- the U.S. is responsible for 20% of the global pollution JDU&DQHDQG<XFDDUHWKHUDZPDWHULDOVZLWKWKHEHVW with barely 4% of the world population. Biofuels are a potential. promising source of renewable energy for the United States and the rest of the world, with favorable energy and environmental balances. If price conditions are adequate for the basic input producers, biofuels will have KEYWORDS (QHUJ\ 'HPDQG (QHUJ\ VRXUFHV 2LO FRQVXPSWLRQ Renewable energy, Energetic-Environmental-Social EDODQFHV9LWDO&\FOH%LRIXHOV(WKDQRO3DOPRLOELRGLHVHO DQ LPSRUWDQW VRFLDO LPSDFW DV ZHOO &RORPELD KDV WKH #25 revista de ingeniería. Universidad de los Andes. rev.ing.ISSN 0121-4993. Mayo 2007 dossier # 25 revista de ingeniería LA MATRIZ DE DEPENDENCIA DEL PETRÓLEO /D PDWUL] TXH PLGH OD GHSHQGHQFLD GHO SHWUyOHR LPSRUWDGR SHUPLWH DSUHFLDU GH XQ YLVWD]R OD SUHFDULHGDGGHODSRVLFLyQDPHULFDQD\HQPHQRUJUDGRODGH OD 8QLyQ (XURSHD (Q XQ HMH VH PLGH HO SRUFHQWDMH GH OD SURGXFFLyQ PXQGLDO TXH DSRUWD FDGD SDtV \ HQ HO RWUR VX SRUFHQWDMH GHO FRQVXPR PXQGLDO &XDQGR ORV GRV SRUFHQWDMHV UHVXOWDQ LJXDOHV SDUD XQ SDtV GDGR HVWR VLJQLILFD TXH HO SDtV HV DXWRVXILFLHQWH HQ VXVQHFHVLGDGHVGHSHWUyOHR\TXHQRQHFHVLWDQLLPSRUWDUORQLH[SRUWDUOR(QHOFDVRGH(VWDGRV8QLGRV HOSRUFHQWDMHGHOFRQVXPRPXQGLDOHVPXFKRPD\RU TXH HO SRUFHQWDMH TXH SURGXFH UD]yQ SRU OD FXDO HV XQLPSRUWDGRUQHWRGHHVWHSURGXFWR3DUDDFHUFDUVH DODOtQHDGHHTXLOLEULRHLQGHSHQGHQFLDGHODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVGHSHWUyOHRORVSDtVHVTXHVRQLPSRUWDGRUHV QHWRVWLHQHQYDULDVRSFLRQHVUHGXFLUHOFRQVXPRGHO SHWUyOHRVXVWLWXLUORSRUHOFRQVXPRGHIXHQWHVUHQRYDEOHVEXVFDU\HQFRQWUDUPiVSHWUyOHRRXQDFRPELQDFLyQ GH WRGDV ODV DQWHULRUHV (O 3UHVLGHQWH %XVK RSWySRUDSR\DUVHHQODVGRVSULPHUDVRSFLRQHV\OD 8QLyQ(XURSHDSRUXVDUIXHQWHVUHQRYDEOHV (Q&RORPELDGHEHVHUSULRULWDULDODLGHQWLILFDFLyQGH OD SROtWLFD \ HVWUDWHJLD VREUH HVWD PDWHULD SRUTXH HO SDtVFXHQWDFRQRSFLRQHVEXHQDVGHHQHUJtDUHQRYDEOH SDUDDWHQGHUODVQHFHVLGDGHVSURSLDV\SDUDH[SRUWDU ORVH[FHGHQWHVDOPLVPRWLHPSRTXHQRSDUHFHQPX\ DOWDV ODV SRVLELOLGDGHV GH HQFRQWUDU \DFLPLHQWRV GH SHWUyOHRGHJUDQHQYHUJDGXUD PERSPECTIVA GLOBAL (O IXWXUR GH OD HQHUJtD D QLYHO PXQGLDO GHSHQGH HQ JUDQSDUWHGHORTXHSDVHFRQODSURGXFFLyQ\HOFRQVXPRGHORVSDtVHVOtGHUHVGHQWURGHORVFXDOHVVHGHVWDFDQ(VWDGRV8QLGRVOD8QLyQ(XURSHD\&KLQD/R TXHVXFHGDHQHVWRVSDtVHVGHWHUPLQDUiHOSDQRUDPD IXWXURGHODHQHUJtDLQFOX\HQGRODDSHUWXUDGHRSRUWXQLGDGHVSDUDQDFLRQHVGHPHQRUWDPDxRFRPR&RORPELD3HURHOJUDQSURWDJRQLVWDHV(VWDGRV8QLGRV TXHHPSLH]DDGDUVHFXHQWDGHODGHSHQGHQFLDTXHKD GHVDUUROODGRDORODUJRGHODV~OWLPDVGpFDGDVHQWRUQRDOSHWUyOHRSURSLRHLPSRUWDGRDOJDVQDWXUDO\DO FDUEyQWRGRVHOORVUHFXUVRVQRUHQRYDEOHV )LJXUD'HSHQGHQFLDGHO3HWUyOHR([SRWDGRUHV1HWRVYV,PSRUWDGRUHV1HWRV)XHQWH&,$:RUOG)DFWERRN 75 76 )LJXUD/DVLWXDFLyQHQHUJpWLFDGHORV(VWDGRV8QLGRVHVSUHRFXSDQWHSRUHODODUPDQWHLQFUHPHQWRGHODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVGHSHWUyOHR que se acercan al 60 % del total consumido y que se espera, lleguen al 70% en 2025. /D SURGXFFLyQ GH SHWUyOHR GH (VWDGRV 8QLGRV DOFDQ]yVXQLYHOPiVDOWRHQFXDQGRVHFRQVROLGy FRPR HO PD\RU H[SRUWDGRU PXQGLDO $ SDUWLU GH HVH PRPHQWRVXSDUWLFLSDFLyQFRPRH[SRUWDGRUHPSH]y DGHFOLQDUKDVWDOOHJDUDFRQYHUWLUVHHQXQLPSRUWDGRU QHWRGHSHWUyOHRFRQXQQLYHOGHPLOORQHVGHEDUULOHVGLDULRVORFXDOUHSUHVHQWDFHUFDGHOGHOSHWUyOHRTXHFRQVXPHFDGDGtD>@'HVHJXLUODWHQGHQFLD DFWXDO(VWDGRV8QLGRVHVWDUtDLPSRUWDQGRHQHO GHOSHWUyOHRTXHFRQVXPH /DV LPSRUWDFLRQHV SURYLHQHQ GH QDFLRQHV FRPR 9HQH]XHOD$QJROD$]HUEDLMDQ&KDG\HQEXHQDSDUWH GHO2ULHQWH0HGLRTXHFXHQWDFRQGHODUHVHUYDV SUREDGDVPLHQWUDV(VWDGRV8QLGRVVyORWLHQHHO GHODVPLVPDV $ORDQWHULRUVHVXPDODGHVSURSRUFLRQDGDFRQWDPLQDFLyQ DPELHQWDO TXH SURGXFH (VWDGRV 8QLGRV OD FXDOVHKDFRQYHUWLGRHQXQDSUHRFXSDFLyQGH(VWDGR SRU ODV JUDYHV LPSOLFDFLRQHV TXH HVWR WLHQH VREUH OD VHJXULGDGQDFLRQDO\PXQGLDO EL CONSUMO DE ENERGÍA EN ESTADOS UNIDOS (Q HO GHO FRQVXPR GH HQHUJtD GH ORV (VWDGRV 8QLGRV IXH GH RULJHQ IyVLO \ HO GH SHWUyOHR \ JDV QDWXUDO 'H IXHQWHV UHQRYDEOHV WDQ VyOR VH FRQVXPLy HO SURYLQLHQGR OD PD\RUtD GH KLGURHOpFWULFDV \ TXHPD GH ELRPDVD /D HQHUJtD QXFOHDU FRQWULEX\y FRQ HO \ HO SHWUyOHR HQ Vt VROR Figura 3. 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