Descomposición alternativa de los componentes de la demanda

Anuncio
S E R I E
ISSN 1680-8797
ESTUDIOS Y
PERSPECTIVAS
OFICINA DE LA CEPAL
EN buenos aires
Descomposición alternativa
de los componentes de la
demanda agregada
Hacia un análisis del corto plazo
con más contenido estructural
Anahí Amar
Matías Torchinsky Landau
Ariel Wirkierman
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYD
GHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHOD
GHPDQGDDJUHJDGD
+DFLDXQDQiOLVLVGHOFRUWRSOD]R
FRQPiVFRQWHQLGRHVWUXFWXUDO
$QDKt$PDU
0DWtDV7RUFKLQVN\/DQGDX
$ULHO:LUNLHUPDQ
(VWH GRFXPHQWR IXH SUHSDUDGR SRU $QDKt $PDU IXQFLRQDULD \ 0DWtDV 7RUFKLQVN\ /DQGDX $VLVWHQWH GH
LQYHVWLJDFLyQGHOD&RPLVLyQ(FRQyPLFDSDUD$PpULFD/DWLQD\HO&DULEH&(3$/FRQODFRODERUDFLyQGH$ULHO
:LUNLHUPDQHQHOPDUFRGHOSURJUDPDGHWUDEDMRGHOD2ILFLQDGHOD&(3$/HQ%XHQRV$LUHV\EDMRODVXSHUYLVLyQ
GH0DUWtQ$EHOHV'LUHFWRUGHHVD2ILFLQD6HDJUDGHFHHODSR\RGHO*RELHUQRGHOD5HS~EOLFD$UJHQWLQD
/DV RSLQLRQHV H[SUHVDGDV HQ HVWH GRFXPHQWR TXH QR KD VLGR VRPHWLGR D UHYLVLyQ HGLWRULDO VRQ GH H[FOXVLYD
UHVSRQVDELOLGDGGHORVDXWRUHV\SXHGHQQRFRLQFLGLUFRQODVGHOD2UJDQL]DFLyQ
3XEOLFDFLyQGHODV1DFLRQHV8QLGDV
,661
/&/
/&%8(/
&RS\ULJKW‹1DFLRQHV8QLGDVagostoGH7RGRVORVGHUHFKRVUHVHUYDGRV
,PSUHVRHQ1DFLRQHV8QLGDV6DQWLDJR
6
/RV(VWDGRV0LHPEURV\VXVLQVWLWXFLRQHVJXEHUQDPHQWDOHVSXHGHQUHSURGXFLUHVWDREUDVLQDXWRUL]DFLyQSUHYLD6RORVHOHV
VROLFLWDTXHPHQFLRQHQODIXHQWHHLQIRUPHQDODV1DFLRQHV8QLGDVGHWDOUHSURGXFFLyQ
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
ËQGLFH
5HVXPHQ
,QWURGXFFLyQ
,
$VSHFWRVPHWRGROyJLFRV
$ $VSHFWRVPHWRGROyJLFRVJHQHUDOHV
% (VWUDWHJLDHPStULFD
,,
$SOLFDFLyQHPStULFD\UHVXOWDGRV
$ (VWLPDFLyQGHODVVHULHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQSRUFRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD
% 5HVXOWDGRV
%UDVLO
0p[LFR
&KLOH
,,,
5HIOH[LRQHVILQDOHV
%LEOLRJUDItD
$QH[R
6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV%XHQRV$LUHVQ~PHURVSXEOLFDGRV
&XDGURV
&XDGUR
&XDGUR
&XDGUR
&XDGUR$
%UDVLOFRHILFLHQWHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
0p[LFRFRHILFLHQWHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
&KLOHFRHILFLHQWHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
&RHILFLHQWHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQȽ୫ SRUFRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGD
%UDVLO\0p[LFR\\&KLOH\
*UiILFRV
*UiILFR
*UiILFR
*UiILFR
%UDVLODSRUWHVDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%
0p[LFRDSRUWHVDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%
&KLOHDSRUWHVDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
5HVXPHQ
(ODQiOLVLVFRQYHQFLRQDO GHO FUHFLPLHQWR GH OD GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD VXHOH VXVWUDHU OD WRWDOLGDG GHO PRQWR
FRUUHVSRQGLHQWH DO DXPHQWR GH ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV DO GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV (VWH SURFHGLPLHQWR TXH VH
FDUDFWHUL]D SRU VX VLPSOLFLGDG SHUPLWH FRQRFHU UiSLGDPHQWH OD FRQWULEXFLyQ QHWD GHO LQWHUFDPELR
FRPHUFLDO DO FUHFLPLHQWR ²HO DSRUWH GHODV OODPDGDV ³H[SRUWDFLRQHV QHWDV´ ; ± 0 3HUR SDUWHGH XQ
VXSXHVWRLQFRQYHQLHQWHSDUDHODQiOVLVHFRQyPLFRTXHHOWRWDOGHODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVVLUYHGHLQVXPRDORV
ELHQHVTXHVHH[SRUWDQ\TXHORVELHQHVGHFRQVXPRS~EOLFRRSULYDGRDVtFRPRGHLQYHUVLyQFDUHFHQ
SRU FRPSOHWR GH FRQWHQLGR LPSRUWDGR 3RU HOOR HO DQiOLVLV PDFURHFRQyPLFR FRQYHQFLRQDO WLHQGH
VLVWHPiWLFDPHQWH D VXEHVWLPDU HO DSRUWH TXH UHDOL]DQODV YHQWDV H[WHUQDV DOFUHFLPLHQWR GH OD GHPDQGD
DJUHJDGD\DVREUHHVWLPDUODFRQWULEXFLyQGHODGHPDQGDLQWHUQD
(OSUHVHQWHGRFXPHQWRGHVDUUROODXQDSURSXHVWDPHWRGROyJLFDDOWHUQDWLYDQRWDQQRYHGRVDFRPR
SRFR GLIXQGLGD ²FRQRFLGR FRPR HO ³PpWRGR KRODQGHV´² TXH EULQGD OD SRVLELOLGDG GH FRQWDU FRQ
GLDJQyVWLFRVPiVSUHFLVRVUHVSHFWRGHODFRQWULEXFLyQGHFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHOJDVWRDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHOD
GHPDQGDDJUHJDGDLGHQWLILFDQGRHOFRQWHQLGRLPSRUWDGRHQFDGDXQRGHHOORV(OORHVSRVLEOHPHGLDQWH
HOXVRGHPDWULFHVLQVXPRSURGXFWRTXHSHUPLWHQFRQRFHUODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVLQWHUPHGLDVLQFRUSRUDGDV
GLUHFWD H LQGLUHFWDPHQWH HQ OD SURGXFFLyQ GHVWLQDGD D ORV GLVWLQWRV XVRV ILQDOHV FRQVXPR LQYHUVLyQ
H[SRUWDFLRQHV'HHVWDPDQHUDVHDUULEDDXQDGHVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHOSURGXFWRHQODTXHDFDGD
FRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGDVHOHVXVWUDHVXSRUFLyQLPSRUWDGD
&XDQGRHOFRQVXPR\ODLQYHUVLyQWLHQHQXQIXHUWHFRQWHQLGRLPSRUWDGR²FRPRRFXUUHHQEXHQD
SDUWH GH ODV HFRQRPtDV ODWLQRDPHULFDQDV² HO VHVJR GH GLDJQyVWLFR HQ HO TXH SXHGH LQFXUUHUVH EDMR HO
HQIRTXH FRQYHQFLRQDO SXHGH VHU PX\ VLJQLILFDWLYR (O SUHVHQWH GRFXPHQWR SURFXUD LQWURGXFLU HVWD
PHWRGRORJtD DOWHUQDWLYD GH GHVFRPSRVLFLyQ GHO FUHFLPLHQWR GH OD GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD \ DSOLFDUOR D WUHV
HFRQRPtDVODWLQRDPHULFDQDV%UDVLO&KLOH\0p[LFRFX\DVGLIHUHQFLDVHVWUXFWXUDOHVSHUPLWHQDSUHFLDU
PiV FODUDPHQWH ODV YLUWXGHV GHO HQIRTXH DGRSWDGR 0iV DOOi GH HVDV GLIHUHQFLDV HQ ORV WUHV FDVRV ODV
H[SRUWDFLRQHV OHMRV GH KDFHU XQ DSRUWH QHJDWLYR DO FUHFLPLHQWR HQ OD GLQiPLFD GH FRUWR SOD]R OR
SRWHQFLDQ\ODGHPDQGDLQWHUQDWLHQHXQSRGHUH[SOLFDWLYR PHQRVUHOHYDQWHGHOTXHVXHOHLQIHULUVHGHO
HQIRTXHFRQYHQFLRQDO
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
,QWURGXFFLyQ
(OFUHFLPLHQWRYHULILFDGRSRUPXFKRVGHORVSDtVHVGH$PpULFD/DWLQDHQORVDxRVWXYRXQUDVJR
FRP~QMXQWRFRQODFUHFLHQWHGHPDQGDH[WHUQD\ODVLJQLILFDWLYDPHMRUDGHORVWpUPLQRVGHLQWHUFDPELR
ORV PHUFDGRV LQWHUQRV VH WUDQVIRUPDURQ HQ PRWRUHV GHO FUHFLPLHQWR /D LQFRUSRUDFLyQ GH SHUVRQDV DO
PHUFDGRGHWUDEDMRHODVFHQVRGHORVVDODULRV\ODGLIXVLyQGHSURJUDPDVHVWDWDOHVGHWUDQVIHUHQFLDVGH
LQJUHVRV X RWURV RULHQWDGRV D ORV VHFWRUHV GH OD SREODFLyQ PiV SRVWHUJDGRV H[SOLFDQ HVWH
FRPSRUWDPLHQWR(QWpUPLQRVSURGXFWLYRVODH[SDQVLyQGHORVPHUFDGRVQDFLRQDOHVJHQHUyFRQGLFLRQHV
SDUDTXHODVDFWLYLGDGHVHFRQyPLFDVFRQDOWDHODVWLFLGDGLQJUHVRGHVXGHPDQGDJDQDUDQSDUWLFLSDFLyQHQ
ODVHVWUXFWXUDVSURGXFWLYDVORFDOHV
/RVHIHFWRVGHODH[SDQVLyQGHORVPHUFDGRVLQWHUQRVGHODVHFRQRPtDVGHODUHJLyQQRKDQVLGR
XQLIRUPHV1RVRORSRUODPDJQLWXGGHHVDH[SDQVLyQTXHYDUtDHQFDGDFDVR7DPELpQSRUODFDSDFLGDG
GHFDGDPDWUL]SURGXFWLYDGHGLIXQGLUHOFUHFLPLHQWRGHODSURGXFFLyQHQWUHORVGLVWLQWRVVHFWRUHVGHOD
HFRQRPtD&DEHVXSRQHUTXHODVHFRQRPtDVPiVGLYHUVLILFDGDVTXHSURGXFHQXQDPD\RUSURSRUFLyQGH
ORVELHQHV\VHUYLFLRVTXHGHPDQGDQSXGLHURQDSURYHFKDUPHMRUHOLPSXOVRGDGRSRUPHUFDGRVLQWHUQRV
HQH[SDQVLyQTXHDTXHOODVPiVHVSHFLDOL]DGDV\SRUHQGHFRQXQDPD\RUSURSHQVLyQPHGLDDLPSRUWDU
$OJR VLPLODU RFXUUH FRQ ODV YHQWDV DO H[WHULRU 'HSHQGLHQGR GHO JUDGR GH LQWHUGHSHQGHQFLD GH OD
SURGXFFLyQ GH ORV ELHQHV TXH VH H[SRUWDQ FRQ RWUDV UDPDV GH DFWLYLGDG ODV YHQWDV DO H[WHULRU SXHGHQ
KDEHUSURGXFLGRXQDPD\RURPHQRUGLQDPL]DFLyQHFRQyPLFD
(YDOXDU HO HIHFWR GH OD H[SDQVLyQ GH ORV PHUFDGRV LQWHUQR R H[WHUQR HQ ORV SURFHVRV GH
FUHFLPLHQWRHFRQyPLFRUHTXLHUHGHXQGLDJQyVWLFRSUHFLVRVREUHHODSRUWHUHDOL]DGRSRUFDGDFDWHJRUtD
GHO JDVWR FRQVXPR SULYDGR FRQVXPR S~EOLFR LQYHUVLyQ \ H[SRUWDFLRQHV (OOR UHTXLHUH GHGXFLU OD
GHPDQGD GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV ²TXH FRQVWLWX\H XQD ³ILOWUDFLyQ´ GHVGH HO SXQWR GH YLVWD GH OD GHPDQGD
DJUHJDGD²GHOJDVWRWRWDO/DPHWRGRORJtDFRQYHQFLRQDOSDUDDQDOL]DUODLQFLGHQFLDGHODVLPSRUWDFLRQHV
HQODGHPDQGDLQWHUQDWRWDOFRQVLVWHHQLPSXWDUUHVWDUWRGRHOPRQWRLPSRUWDGRDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV(VD
PHWRGRORJtD WLHQH FRPR EHQHILFLR VX VLPSOLFLGDG \ DGHPiV SHUPLWH FRQRFHU UiSLGDPHQWH OD
FRQWULEXFLyQ QHWD GHO LQWHUFDPELR FRPHUFLDO DO FUHFLPLHQWR 6LQ HPEDUJR SDUWH GH XQ VXSXHVWR
LQFRQYHQLHQWHSDUDHODQiOVLVHFRQyPLFR²TXHHOWRWDOGHODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVVLUYHGHLQVXPRDORVELHQHV
TXH VH H[SRUWDQ \ TXH ORV ELHQHV GH FRQVXPR S~EOLFR R SULYDGR DVt FRPR GH LQYHUVLyQ FDUHFHQ SRU
FRPSOHWR GH FRQWHQLGR LPSRUWDGR 3RU HOOR OD PHWRGRORJtD FRQYHQFLRQDO WLHQGH VLVWHPiWLFDPHQWH D
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
VXEHVWLPDU HO DSRUWH TXH UHDOL]DQ ODV YHQWDV H[WHUQDV DO FUHFLPLHQWR \ VREUHHVWLPDU HO TXH HIHFW~D OD
GHPDQGDORFDO
6HJ~QHOPpWRGRWUDGLFLRQDOGHFRQWDELOL]DFLyQGHOSURGXFWR
ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௣ ൅ ‫ܥ‬௚ ൅ ‫ ܫ‬൅ ሺܺ െ ‫ܯ‬ሻ
3RUORWDQWRHOFUHFLPLHQWRGHOSURGXFWRHVWiGDGRSRU
οܻ ൌ ο‫ܥ‬௣ ൅ ο‫ܥ‬௚ ൅ ο‫ ܫ‬൅ οሺܺ െ ‫ܯ‬ሻ
GRQGH
&S &RQVXPRSULYDGR, ,QYHUVLyQ&J &RQVXPRGHJRELHUQR; ([SRUWDFLRQHV
\0 ,PSRUWDFLRQHV
.UDQHQGRQN \ 9HUEUXJJHQ SURSRQHQ XQ PpWRGR DOWHUQDWLYR \ OR DSOLFDQ DO FDVR GH OD
HFRQRPtD KRODQGHVD SRU HOOR OR GHQRPLQDQ ³PpWRGR KRODQGpV´ (VWH FRQVLVWH HQ LGHQWLILFDU HO
FRQWHQLGR LPSRUWDGR HQ FDGD XQD GH ODV FDWHJRUtDV GHO JDVWR \ SRU OR WDQWR SHUPLWH GHVFRQWDU ODV
LPSRUWDFLRQHVILQDOHVHLQWHUPHGLDVLQFRUSRUDGDVHQFDGDXQDGHHOODVGHODVLJXLHQWHPDQHUD
0pWRGRDOWHUQDWLYRX³KRODQGpV´GHFRQWDELOL]DFLyQGHOSURGXFWR
ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௣ െ ‫ܯ‬஼௣ ሻ ൅ ሺ‫ܥ‬௚ െ ‫ܯ‬஼௚ ሻ ൅ ሺ‫ ܫ‬െ ‫ܯ‬ூ ሻ ൅ ሺܺ െ ‫ܯ‬௑ ሻ
GRQGH
‫ ܯ‬ൌ ‫ܯ‬஼௣ ൅ ‫ܯ‬஼௚ ൅ ‫ܯ‬ூ ൅ ‫ܯ‬௑
\ GRQGH େ୮ େ୥ ୍ \ ଡ଼ UHSUHVHQWDQ ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV LQWHUPHGLDV \ ILQDOHV GHVWLQDGDV D
FRQVXPRSULYDGRFRQVXPRGHJRELHUQRLQYHUVLyQ\H[SRUWDFLRQHVUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH
/DV WpFQLFDV EDVDGDV HQ PDWULFHV LQVXPRSURGXFWR SHUPLWHQ FRQRFHU ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV
LQWHUPHGLDV LQFRUSRUDGDV GLUHFWD H LQGLUHFWDPHQWH HQ OD SURGXFFLyQ GHVWLQDGD D XVRV ILQDOHV GH FDGD
DFWLYLGDGHFRQyPLFD$VXYH]UHIOHMDQHOGHVWLQRGHODSURGXFFLyQGHHVDVDFWLYLGDGHVVHDDFRQVXPR
GH ORV KRJDUHV R GHO VHFWRU S~EOLFR D LQYHUVLyQ R D H[SRUWDFLRQHV SHUPLWLHQGR LPSXWDU ODV
LPSRUWDFLRQHV LQWHUPHGLDV D FDGD XQR GH ORV FRPSRQHQWHV GH OD GHPDQGD ILQDO 6L DGLFLRQDOPHQWH VH
GLVSRQH GH XQD PDWUL] GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV ILQDOHV HV SRVLEOH DVLJQDU WDPELpQ HVWDV ~OWLPDV D FDGD
FRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGD'HORFRQWUDULRVXGHVWLQRSXHGHVHUHVWLPDGRVXSRQLHQGRXQDGLVWULEXFLyQ
VLPLODUDODTXHYHULILFDQODVYHQWDVWRWDOHVGHHVRVELHQHVHQWUHODVFDWHJRUtDVGHODGHPDQGDILQDO
/RV DXWRUHV GHO ³PpWRGR KRODQGpV´ DSOLFDQ VX SURSXHVWD PHWRGROyJLFD GH GHVFRPSRVLFLyQ GHO
FUHFLPLHQWR D VHLV HFRQRPtDV HXURSHDV \ ORV (VWDGRV 8QLGRV SDUD HO SHUtRGR .UDQHQGRQN \
9HUEUXJJHQ 7DO FRPR KDEtDQ YHULILFDGR SUHYLDPHQWH FRQ HO FDVR KRODQGpV HQFXHQWUDQ TXH GH
DFXHUGR FRQ HO PpWRGR TXH VH XWLOLFH OD KLVWRULD GH ODV DFHOHUDFLRQHV \ ODV GHVDFHOHUDFLRQHV HFRQyPLFDV
SXHGHUHVXOWDUPX\GLIHUHQWH(QOtQHDVJHQHUDOHVPLHQWUDVPHGLDQWHODPHWRGRORJtDWUDGLFLRQDOODOHFWXUD
VXHOH VHU TXH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV QHWDV GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV UHDOL]DQ DSRUWHV QHJDWLYRV R QHXWURV DO
FUHFLPLHQWRPHGLDQWHHOPpWRGRDOWHUQDWLYRHOLPSDFWRGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVHQHO3,%SRUORJHQHUDOHV
SRVLWLYR 6LPXOWDQHDPHQWH ORV DSRUWHV DO FUHFLPLHQWR GDGRV SRU OD GHPDQGD LQWHUQD GH FRQVXPR H
LQYHUVLyQ GH DFXHUGR FRQ HO DQiOLVLV DOWHUQDWLYR VH UHGXFHQ (VWR HV DVt SRUTXH SDUWH GH OD GHPDQGD
LQWHUQDVH³ILOWUD´KDFLDHOH[WHULRUYtDLPSRUWDFLRQHV/DGLIHUHQFLDHQWUHORVUHVXOWDGRVGHDPERVPpWRGRV
VHDKRQGDFXDQGRHVWRVVHDSOLFDQDHFRQRPtDVFRQXQDHOHYDGD WDVDGHLPSRUWDFLRQHV \DVHDGHELHQHV
ILQDOHVRLQWHUPHGLRV
6XHOHQLQFOXVRDUURMDUXQDSRUWHQHJDWLYRORTXHFRQVWLWX\HXQVLQVHQWLGRHFRQyPLFR
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
'HVGHXQDSHUVSHFWLYDVLPLODUHQHOPDUFRGHOGHELOLWDPLHQWRGHODGHPDQGDJOREDOSURGXFLGDSRU
HO GHVHQFDGHQDPLHQWR GH OD FULVLV HQ $N\V SUHVHQWD XQ GRFXPHQWR HQ HO TXH GLVFXWH OD
UHOHYDQFLDGHOGLQDPLVPRGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVSDUDHOFUHFLPLHQWRHFRQyPLFRGH&KLQD$OOtSURSRQHHQ
OXJDU GHXWLOL]DU OD PHWRGRORJtD WUDGLFLRQDO HVWLPDU OD FRQWULEXFLyQ GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV ²\ SRU HQGH
GHOUHVWRGHODVFDWHJRUtDVGHOJDVWR²DOFUHFLPLHQWRVXVWUD\HQGRVXSRUFLyQLPSRUWDGDHVSHFtILFD(OOR
LPSOLFDXQPRQLWRUHRSHUPDQHQWHGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVHQODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVPHGLDQWHOD
XWLOL]DFLyQ GH WpFQLFDV LQVXPRSURGXFWR (V GHFLU FDOFXODU ODLQFLGHQFLDGHODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV FRPR HV
PiVKDELWXDOHQHVWXGLRVVHFWRULDOHVRGHFDGHQDVGHYDORUSHURFRQILQHVPDFURHFRQyPLFRV
(Q HVD OtQHD HO SUHVHQWH GRFXPHQWR SURFXUD LQWURGXFLU OD PHWRGRORJtD DOWHUQDWLYD GH
GHVFRPSRVLFLyQGHOFUHFLPLHQWRDSDtVHVGH$PpULFD/DWLQD7LHQHSRUREMHWLYRFRQWULEXLUDODGLIXVLyQ
GHHVWHFULWHULR VXSHUDGRU GH WUDWDPLHQWR GH ODV FXHQWDV QDFLRQDOHV DORVILQHV GHVRUWHDU ORVVHVJRV GH
LQWHUSUHWDFLyQTXHSRGUtDFRQOOHYDUODXWLOL]DFLyQGHOPpWRGRPiVFRQYHQFLRQDOTXHWLHQGHDRPLWLUDOD
HVWUXFWXUDSURGXFWLYDDODQDOL]DUODGLQiPLFDGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD0iVDOOiGHODVGLILFXOWDGHVTXH
SXHGH DFDUUHDU OD DSOLFDFLyQ GHO PpWRGR DOWHUQDWLYR HVWH SURSRUFLRQD XQD YHUVLyQ PiV SUHFLVD GH ODV
FRQWULEXFLRQHV DO FUHFLPLHQWR GH FDGD FRPSRQHQWH GH OD GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD \ SHUPLWH UHDOL]DU
GLDJQyVWLFRVPiVH[KDXVWLYRV
&DEHDGYHUWLUTXHHVWHWLSRGHDSUR[LPDFLRQHVQRHVWiH[HQWRGHGLILFXOWDGHV1RWRGRVORVSDtVHV
HODERUDQPDWULFHV LQVXPRSURGXFWR ,3 PLHQWUDV TXH RWURVOR KDFHQGHIRUPD LQFRPSOHWD R LUUHJXODU
$~QHQORVFDVRVHQ TXH ODLQIRUPDFLyQ HVWp GLVSRQLEOH OD XWLOL]DFLyQ GH XQD PDWUL] ,3 GH XQSHUtRGR
HVSHFtILFR QR SXHGH FDSWDU ORV FDPELRV HQ HO QLYHO R HQ OD FRPSRVLFLyQ GH ODV FRPSUDV DO H[WHULRU
PRWLYDGRV HQ IOXFWXDFLRQHV GH ORV SUHFLRV UHODWLYRV R HQ HO JUDGR GH XWLOL]DFLyQ GH ODV FDSDFLGDGHV
ORFDOHV$~QFRQHVWDVGHVYHQWDMDVHODERUGDMHDSRUWDUiXQDYHUVLyQ PiVUHDOLVWDGHODVFRQWULEXFLRQHV
HVSHFtILFDVDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD
(OWUDEDMRVHRUJDQL]DGHODVLJXLHQWHPDQHUD/XHJRGHHVWDLQWURGXFFLyQHQODVHJXQGDVHFFLyQ
HO GRFXPHQWR GHVDUUROOD ORV DVSHFWRV PHWRGROyJLFRV QHFHVDULRV SDUD IRUPXODU GH PDQHUD DOWHUQDWLYD OD
FRQWULEXFLyQ GH FDGD FRPSRQHQWH GH OD GHPDQGD ILQDO DO FUHFLPLHQWR GHO 3,% PHGLDQWH HO
HVWDEOHFLPLHQWRGHXQDLQWHUID]HQWUHODLGHQWLGDGFRQWDEOHSDUDODGHPDQGDJOREDOVHJ~QIXHQWHGHJDVWR
\ODVPDJQLWXGHVGHXQHVTXHPD,QVXPR3URGXFWRTXHGLVWLQJXHHOFRPSRQHQWHGHSURGXFFLyQLQWHUQDGH
DTXHO LPSRUWDGR (Q OD WHUFHUD VHFFLyQ HO GRFXPHQWR SUHVHQWD OD DSOLFDFLyQ HPStULFD GHO PpWRGR
DOWHUQDWLYRSDUDWUHVHFRQRPtDVODWLQRDPHULFDQDV%UDVLO&KLOH\0p[LFRSDUDODVTXHVHFXHQWDFRQOD
LQIRUPDFLyQHVWDGtVWLFDQHFHVDULD\ORVUHVXOWDGRVREWHQLGRVHQFDGDFDVR/DGLIHUHQFLDHVWUXFWXUDOHQWUH
HVWDVWUHVHFRQRPtDVSHUPLWLUiDSUHFLDUPiVFODUDPHQWHODVYLUWXGHVGHOHQIRTXHDGRSWDGRHQHVWHWUDEDMR
/DFXDUWDVHFFLyQSODQWHDODVSULQFLSDOHVFRQFOXVLRQHVGHOHVWXGLR
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
, $VSHFWRVPHWRGROyJLFRV
$ $VSHFWRVPHWRGROyJLFRVJHQHUDOHV
3DUDREWHQHUXQDIRUPXODFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHODFRQWULEXFLyQGHFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGDILQDODO
FUHFLPLHQWR GHO 3,% HV QHFHVDULR HVWDEOHFHU XQD LQWHUID] HQWUH OD LGHQWLGDG FRQWDEOH SDUD OD GHPDQGD
JOREDOVHJ~QIXHQWHGHJDVWR\ODVPDJQLWXGHVGHXQHVTXHPD,QVXPR3URGXFWR,3GHDTXtHQDGHODQWH
TXHGLVWLQJXHHOFRPSRQHQWHGHSURGXFFLyQLQWHUQDGHDTXHOLPSRUWDGRDVtFRPRODYDOXDFLyQDSUHFLRV
EiVLFRVUHVSHFWRDDTXHOODDSUHFLRVGHFRPSUDGRU
&RQVLGHUHPRVHQSULPHUOXJDUODLGHQWLGDGFRQWDEOHTXHGHVDJUHJDGHPDQGDJOREDOVHJ~QIXHQWH
GHJDVWR
ܻ ൅ ‫ ܯ‬ൌ ‫ܥ‬௣ ൅ ‫ܥ‬௚ ൅ ‫ ܫ‬൅ ܺ
GRQGH HO SURGXFWR EUXWR LQWHUQR D SUHFLRV GH PHUFDGR < \ ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV WRWDOHV 0
FRLQFLGHQ FRQ OD GHPDQGD SRU ELHQHV GH FRQVXPR ILQDO SULYDGR &S FRQVXPR GH JRELHUQR &J
IRUPDFLyQEUXWDGHFDSLWDO,\H[SRUWDFLRQHV;DSUHFLRVGHPHUFDGR
$OPLVPRWLHPSRGLVSRQHPRVGHXQDUUHJORPDWULFLDO,3GHWLSRLQGXVWULDSRULQGXVWULDDSUHFLRV
EiVLFRVSDUDODSURGXFFLyQQDFLRQDO
5HVSHFWRDODQRWDFLyQORVVtPERORVHQQHJULWDLGHQWLILFDQYHFWRUHVFROXPQDHQPLQ~VFXODGHGLPHQVLyQ Q[SRUHMHPSORT\
PDWULFHVHQPD\~VFXODGHGLPHQVLyQQ[QSRUHMHPSOR;GRQGHQHVHOQ~PHURGHLQGXVWULDVPLHQWUDVHOUHVWRGHORVVtPERORV
UHSUHVHQWDQHVFDODUHV7RGRYHFWRUHVXQYHFWRUFROXPQDH[FHSWRTXHVHLQGLTXHH[SOtFLWDPHQWHVXWUDVSRVLFLyQSRUHMHPSOR்࢟ /DV
ෝ GRQGH ORV HOHPHQWRV GHO YHFWRU VH
PDWULFHV GLDJRQDOHV VH LQGLFDQ FRPR YHFWRUHV FRQ XQ DFHQWR FLUFXQIOHMR SRU HMHPSOR ࢗ
HQFXHQWUDQHQODGLDJRQDOSULQFLSDO
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
ࢄ
‫ۍ‬
்
‫࢓ێ‬௫
‫்࣎ ێ‬௫
‫் ێ‬
‫࢟ێ‬
‫்ࢗ ۏ‬
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
ࢌ஼೛
ࢌ஼೒
ࢌூ
ࢌ௑
݉஼೛
݉஼೒
݉ூ
݉௑
߬஼೛
߬஼೒
߬ூ
߬௑
Ͳ
‫ܥ‬௣
Ͳ
‫ܥ‬௚
Ͳ
‫ܫ‬
Ͳ
ܺ
ࢗ
‫ې‬
‫ۑܯ‬
߬‫ۑ‬
‫ۑ‬
Ͳ‫ۑ‬
Ͳ‫ے‬
GRQGH HO YDORU EUXWR GH SURGXFFLyQ QDFLRQDO T VH GHVWLQD D XVRV LQWHUPHGLRV ; \ ILQDOHV
ࢌ஼೛ ǡ ࢌ஼೒ ǡ ࢌூ ǡ ࢌ௑ ODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVDJUHJDGDVSRUSURGXFWRGHRULJHQ0VHGHVWLQDQDXVRVLQWHUPHGLRV
࢓்௫ \ ILQDOHV ݉஼೛ ǡ ݉஼೒ ǡ ݉ூ ǡ ݉௑ GH LJXDO PRGR ORV LPSXHVWRV QHWRV GH VXEVLGLRV D ORV SURGXFWRV
QDFLRQDOHV H LPSRUWDGRV ߬ SXHGHQ GHVDJUHJDUVH SRU GHVWLQR LQWHUPHGLR ࣎௑் \ ILQDO ߬஼೛ ǡ ߬஼೒ ǡ ߬ூ ǡ ߬௑ PLHQWUDVTXHHOYDORUDJUHJDGREUXWRDSUHFLRVEiVLFRV்࢟ FRQWLHQHHOLQJUHVRJHQHUDGRSRUFDGDXQDGH
ODVQLQGXVWULDV
$SDUWLUGLFKRDUUHJORPDWULFLDOSXHGHQDUWLFXODUVHLGHQWLGDGHVFRQWDEOHVTXHFRQHFWDQFRQORV
HOHPHQWRVGH
ܻ ൌ ்࢟ ࢋ ൅ ߬
‫ ܯ‬ൌ ࢓்௫ ࢋ ൅ ሺ݉஼೛ ൅ ݉஼೒ ൅ ݉ூ ൅ ݉௑ ሻ
‫ܥ‬௣ ൌ ࢋ் ࢌ஼೛ ൅ ݉஼೛ ൅ ߬஼೛
‫ܥ‬௚ ൌ ࢋ் ࢌ஼೒ ൅ ݉஼೒ ൅ ߬஼೒
‫ ܫ‬ൌ ࢋ் ࢌூ ൅ ݉ூ ൅ ߬ூ
ܺ ൌ ࢋ் ࢌ௑ ൅ ݉௑ ൅ ߬௑
/DVUHODFLRQHVPXHVWUDQTXHLFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGDLQFOX\HHOYDORU
GH ELHQHV GH SURGXFFLyQ LQWHUQD D SUHFLRV EiVLFRV ࢋ் ࢌ஼೛ ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV ILQDOHV GH SURGXFWRV
GHVWLQDGRV D GLFKR XVR ILQDO ݉஼೛ H LPSXHVWRV QHWRV D ORV SURGXFWRV DVRFLDGRV D GLFKR FRPSRQHQWH
߬஼೛ LLODVLPSRUWDFLRQHV0LQFOX\HQXQFRPSRQHQWHGHVWLQDGRDORVXVRVLQWHUPHGLRV‫ܯ‬௫ ൌ ࢓்௫ ࢋDVt
FRPRRWURGHVWLQDGRDXVRVILQDOHV‫ܯ‬௙ ൌ ሺ݉஼೛ ൅ ݉஼೒ ൅ ݉ூ ൅ ݉௑ ሻGHPRGRTXH‫ ܯ‬ൌ ‫ܯ‬௫ ൅ ‫ܯ‬௙ 'DGR TXH ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV FRQVWLWX\HQ µILOWUDFLRQHV¶ UHSUHVHQWDQ LQJUHVR GH RWURV SDtVHV VH
GHGXFHQSDUDH[SOLFDUHOFUHFLPLHQWRGHOSURGXFWRLQWHUQR$WDOILQWUDGLFLRQDOPHQWHSDUDGHVFRPSRQHUHO
FUHFLPLHQWRGHOSURGXFWRVHFRQVLGHUDODFRQWULEXFLyQGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVQHWDV;0/DHVSHFLILFDFLyQ
GHWDOODGDGH;HQ\0HQSRQHHQHYLGHQFLDODLPSUHFLVLyQGHHVWHSURFHGLPLHQWR3RUXQODGRQR
VRODPHQWHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVSRVHHQXQFRPSRQHQWHLPSRUWDGRP[&DGDXQRGHORVRWURVFRPSRQHQWHVGH
ODGHPDQGDILQDOWDPELpQSRVHHXQFRPSRQHQWHLPSRUWDGRTXHLQFOXVRSXHGHVHUPD\RUHQSURSRUFLyQDO
GHODVSURSLDVH[SRUWDFLRQHV3RURWURODGRQRWRGDVODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVFRUUHVSRQGHQDXVRVILQDOHV0I
3RUORWDQWRLPSXWDUD;ODWRWDOLGDGGH0QRUHVXOWDDGHFXDGRVLORTXHVHGHVHDHVHVWLPDUODFRQWULEXFLyQ
HVSHFtILFDGHFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHGHPDQGDDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHOSURGXFWR
(OYHFWRUࢋ ൌ ሾͳ ǥ ͳሿ் HVXQYHFWRUGHGLPHQVLyQQ[FRPSXHVWRGH¶VGHQRPLQDGRµYHFWRUVXPD¶SXHVDJUHJDORVHOHPHQWRVGHOD
PDWUL]YHFWRUDOTXHYLHQHPXOWLSOLFDGR
&RPRWtSLFDPHQWHRFXUUHFRQODLQYHUVLyQILMD
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
8QD FRUUHFFLyQ D OD GHVFRPSRVLFLyQ HVWiQGDU GHEHUtD HQWRQFHV GHGXFLU GH FDGD FRPSRQHQWH GH
GHPDQGDVXFRQWHQLGRGHLPSRUWDFLRQHVILQDOHV‫ܯ‬௙ HLPSXWDUDFDGDXQRGHHOORVXQDSRUFLyQGHODV
LPSRUWDFLRQHV LQWHUPHGLDV ‫ܯ‬௫ 3DUD HO SULPHU DVSHFWR EDVWD FRQVLGHUDU FDGD FRPSRQHQWH GH OD
GHPDQGDDJUHJDGDDSUHFLRVGHPHUFDGRDOQHWRGHVXVLPSRUWDFLRQHVILQDOHV‫ܥ‬௣ െ ݉஼೛ ൌ ࢋ் ࢌ஼೛ ൅ ߬஼೛ SRUHMHPSOR
(OSULQFLSLRSDUDLPSXWDUXQDSDUWHGHODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVLQWHUPHGLDVDXQFLHUWRFRPSRQHQWHGHOD
GHPDQGDILQDOFRQVLVWHHQUHFRQRFHUTXHODGHPDQGDGHLQVXPRVHVLQGXFLGDGHULYDGDGHORVUHTXLVLWRV
WpFQLFRVSDUDVDWLVIDFHUODSURGXFFLyQGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVILQDOHVGHOVLVWHPD3RUORWDQWRXWLOL]DQGRHO
HQWUDPDGR GH UHODFLRQHV LQWHULQGXVWULDOHV HV SRVLEOH FDOFXODU ORV UHTXLVLWRV GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV GLUHFWD H
LQGLUHFWDPHQWHUHTXHULGRVSDUDSURGXFLUFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD
3DUDHOORSDUWLPRVGHOVLVWHPDGHJDVWRGHSURGXFFLyQLQWHUQDTXHDUWLFXODPRVFRQHOFXDGUR,3
ࢗ ൌ ࢄࢋ ൅ ࢌ
ࢌ ൌ ࢌ஼೛ ൅ ࢌ஼೒ ൅ ࢌூ ൅ ࢌ௑
GRQGH I UHSUHVHQWD HO µSURGXFWR QHWR¶ GH OD HFRQRPtD HV GHFLU OD GHPDQGD ILQDO GH SURGXFFLyQ
LQWHUQD D SUHFLRV EiVLFRV 'LFKR YHFWRU FRQWLHQH OD FDQDVWD GH ELHQHV TXH UHSUHVHQWD HQ PRGR PiV
JHQXLQRDQLYHOGHVDJUHJDGRHOSURGXFWRILQDOGHODHFRQRPtD
6LGHILQLPRVORVUHTXLVLWRVGHLQVXPRVLQWHUPHGLRVGHSURGXFFLyQLQWHUQD;HLPSRUWDGD࢓்௫ HQWpUPLQRVLQWHQVLYRVSRUXQLGDGPRQHWDULDGHSURGXFFLyQGHODLQGXVWULDFRPSUDGRUD
ෝିଵ ൌ ൣ‫ݔ‬௜௝ Ȁ‫ݍ‬௝ ൧
࡭ ൌ ࢄࢗ
ෝିଵ ൌ ൣ݉௜௝ Ȁ‫ݍ‬௝ ൧
ࢇ்௠ ൌ ࢓்௫ ࢗ
ODSURGXFFLyQWRWDOGHOVLVWHPD\HOWRWDOGHLPSRUWDFLRQHVLQWHUPHGLDVSXHGHQHVFULELUVHFRPR
ࢗ ൌ ሺࡵ െ ࡭ሻିଵ ࢌ
‫ܯ‬௫ ൌ ࢇ்௠ ࢗ ൌ ࢇ்௠ ሺࡵ െ ࡭ሻିଵ ࢌ
'HPRGRTXHGHILQLHQGR
்࢜௠ ൌ ࢇ்௠ ሺࡵ െ ࡭ሻିଵ
SRGHPRVH[SUHVDUDOWHUQDWLYDPHQWHHOWRWDOGHLPSRUWDFLRQHVLQWHUPHGLDVFRPR
‫ܯ‬௫ ൌ ࢓்௫ ࢋ ൌ ࢇ்௠ ࢗ ൌ ்࢜௠ ࢌ ൌ ෍ ‫݂ ࢐࢓ݒ‬௝
௝
&DGDHOHPHQWR‫ݒ‬௠ೕ GHOYHFWRU்࢜௠ UHSUHVHQWDHOWRWDOGHUHTXLVLWRVGLUHFWRVHLQGLUHFWRVGHLQVXPRV
LPSRUWDGRV SDUD SURGXFLU XQD XQLGDG PRQHWDULD GHO HOHPHQWR MpVLPR GHO SURGXFWR QHWR ݂௝ LQGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWHGHVXXVRILQDO
(QWRQFHVVHSDUDQGRIHQVXVGLVWLQWRVFRPSRQHQWHVDSDUWLUGHWHQHPRV
‫ܯ‬௫ ൌ ்࢜௠ ࢌ஼࢖ ൅ ்࢜௠ ࢌ஼ࢍ ൅ ்࢜௠ ࢌூ ൅ ்࢜௠ ࢌࢄ
(VLPSRUWDQWHQRWDUTXHHQJHQHUDOHOSURGXFWRQHWRIQRFRLQFLGHFRQHOYDORUDJUHJDGR்࢟ ݂௝ ് ‫ݕ‬௝ SDUDWRGRM «Q\HQXQD
HFRQRPtD DELHUWD \ FRQ DFWLYLGDG GHO JRELHUQR HQ WpUPLQRV LPSRVLWLYRV WDPSRFR FRLQFLGHQ D QLYHO DJUHJDGR ࢋ் ࢌ ് ்࢟ ࢋ 'H
KHFKRRSHUDQGRDSDUWLUGHORVHOHPHQWRVGHOVLVWHPD,3SXHGHPRVWUDUVHTXH்࢟ ࢋ ൌ ࢋ் ࢌ െ ࢓்௫ ࢋ െ ்࣎௫ ࢋ
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
GRQGH FDGD VXPDQGR UHSUHVHQWD HO FRQWHQLGR GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV LQWHUPHGLDV UHTXHULGR SDUD
SURGXFLUORVGLVWLQWRVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD/DH[SUHVLyQORJUDILQDOPHQWHLPSXWDU
DFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGDILQDOXQDSRUFLyQGHOWRWDOGHLPSRUWDFLRQHVLQWHUPHGLDV
$ILQGHHIHFWXDUXQHMHUFLFLRGHFRQWDELOLGDGHVWUXFWXUDOSRGHPRVGHILQLU
ߣ௠
஼೛
ൌ
்࢜௠ ࢌ஼࢖
‫ܥ‬௣ െ ݉஼೛
ǡ
ߣ௠
஼೒
ൌ
்࢜௠ ࢌ஼ࢍ
‫ܥ‬௚ െ ݉஼೒
ߣ௠
ூ ൌ
ǡ
்࢜௠ ࢌࡵ
ǡ
‫ ܫ‬െ ݉ூ
ߣ௑௠ ൌ
்࢜௠ ࢌࢄ
ܺ െ ݉௑
GRQGH SRU HMHPSOR ߣ௠
஼೛ UHSUHVHQWD HO FRQWHQLGR GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV LQWHUPHGLDV SRU XQLGDG
PRQHWDULDGHFRQVXPRSULYDGRGHSURGXFFLyQLQWHUQDLQFOX\HQGRLPSXHVWRVQHWRV
3RUORWDQWRSRGHPRVHVFULELUFRPR
௠
௠
௠
‫ܯ‬௫ ൌ ߣ௠
஼೛ ቀ‫ܥ‬௣ െ ݉஼೛ ቁ ൅ ߣ஼೒ ቀ‫ܥ‬௚ െ ݉஼೒ ቁ ൅ ߣூ ሺ‫ ܫ‬െ ݉ூ ሻ ൅ ߣ௑ ሺܺ െ ݉௑ ሻ
'HPRGRTXHRSHUDQGRVREUH
ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௣ ൅ ‫ܥ‬௚ ൅ ‫ ܫ‬൅ ܺ െ ‫ܯ‬
ൌ ‫ܥ‬௣ ൅ ‫ܥ‬௚ ൅ ‫ ܫ‬൅ ܺ െ ‫ܯ‬௙ െ ‫ܯ‬௫ ൌ ቀ‫ܥ‬௣ െ ݉஼೛ ቁ ൅ ቀ‫ܥ‬௚ െ ݉஼೒ ቁ ൅ ሺ‫ ܫ‬െ ݉ூ ሻ ൅ ሺܺ െ ݉௑ ሻ െ ‫ܯ‬௫ ,QWURGXFLHQGR\UHRUGHQDQGRWpUPLQRVWHQHPRV
௠
௠
௠
ܻ ൌ ቀͳ െ ߣ௠
஼೛ ቁ ቀ‫ܥ‬௣ െ ݉஼೛ ቁ ൅ ቀͳ െ ߣ஼೒ ቁ ቀ‫ܥ‬௚ െ ݉஼೒ ቁ ൅ ሺͳ െ ߣூ ሻሺ‫ ܫ‬െ ݉ூ ሻ ൅ ሺͳ െ ߣ௑ ሻሺܺ െ ݉௑ ሻ
GRQGHORVVXPDQGRVUHSUHVHQWDQODFRQWULEXFLyQGHFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGDDO
3,%FRUULJLHQGRSRUODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVILQDOHV \HOFRQWHQLGRGHLPSRUWDFLRQHVLQWHUPHGLDVDVRFLDGRD
FDGDXQRGHHOORV
$VLPLVPR VL FRQVLGHUDPRV SRU HMHPSOR OD FRQWULEXFLyQ GHO FRQVXPR SULYDGR ‫ܥ‬௣ SRGHPRV
H[SUHVDUODFRQWULEXFLyQQHWDDO3,%FRPR
௠
ቀͳ െ ߣ௠
஼೛ ቁ ቀ‫ܥ‬௣ െ ݉஼೛ ቁ ൌ ቀͳ െ ߣ஼೛ ቁ
‫ܥ‬௣ െ ݉஼೛
‫ܥ‬௣
௠
‫ܥ‬௣ ൌ ቀͳ െ ߣ௠
஼೛ ቁ ሺͳ െ ߛ஼೛ ሻ‫ܥ‬௣ GRQGH
ߛ஼௠೛ ൌ
݉஼೛
‫ܥ‬௣
UHSUHVHQWDODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVILQDOHVSRUXQLGDGPRQHWDULDGHFRQVXPRSULYDGRDSUHFLRVGHFRPSUDGRU
1yWHVHTXHODGLIHUHQFLDHQWUHORVVXPDQGRVVHH[SOLFDSRUODGLIHUHQWHFDQDVWDGHELHQHVDVRFLDGDDFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGD
/DVFRQGLFLRQHVWpFQLFDVGHSURGXFFLyQHLPSRUWDFLRQHVVLQWHWL]DGDVSRU்࢜௠ VRQODVPLVPDVLQGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWHGHOXVRILQDO
$ SDUWLU GH WHQHPRV ‫ܥ‬௣ െ ݉஼೛ ൌ ࢋ் ࢌ஼೛ ൅ ߬‫ ܥ‬HV GHFLU HO GHQRPLQDGRU GHO FRHILFLHQWH ߣ௠
஼೛ HV HO FRQVXPR SULYDGR GH
‫݌‬
SURGXFFLyQQDFLRQDODSUHFLRVEiVLFRVPiVORVLPSXHVWRVQHWRVDOFRQVXPR
5HFRUGDQGRTXH‫ܯ‬௙ ൌ ݉஼೛ ൅ ݉஼೒ ൅ ݉ூ ൅ ݉௑ Ǥ
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
3RUORWDQWRSRGHPRVHVFULELUODGHVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHO3,%FRPR
௠
௠
ܻ ൌ ቀͳ െ ߣ௠
஼೛ ቁ ቀͳ െ ߛ஼೛ ቁ ‫ܥ‬௣ ൅ ቀͳ െ ߣ஼೒ ቁ
௠
௠
௠
ቀͳ െ ߛ஼௠೒ ቁ ‫ܥ‬௚ ൅ ሺͳ െ ߣ௠
ூ ሻሺͳ െ ߛூ ሻ‫ ܫ‬൅ ሺͳ െ ߣ௑ ሻሺͳ െ ߛ௑ ሻܺ
QRWDQGRTXHODHYROXFLyQGHODFRQWULEXFLyQGHFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHSHQGHGHWUHVGHWHUPLQDQWHV
௠
SRUHMHPSORߣ௠
஼೛ ߛ஼೛ \‫ܥ‬௣ SDUDHOFDVRGHOFRQVXPRSULYDGR
&RQVLGHUDQGRVLHPSUHHOFRPSRQHQWH‫ܥ‬௣ FRPRHMHPSORSRGHPRVGHILQLU
௠
ቀͳ െ ߙ஼௠೛ ቁ ൌ ቀͳ െ ߣ௠
஼೛ ቁ ቀͳ െ ߛ஼೛ ቁ
GRQGH
ߙ஼௠೛
ൌ
்࢜௠ ࢌ஼࢖ ൅ ݉஼೛
‫ܥ‬௣
UHSUHVHQWDHOFRQWHQLGRGHLPSRUWDFLRQHVLQWHUPHGLDV\ILQDOHVSRUXQLGDGPRQHWDULDGHFRQVXPR
SULYDGRDSUHFLRVGHPHUFDGR8QUD]RQDPLHQWR\GHILQLFLRQHVDQiORJDVVHH[WLHQGHQSDUDORVUHVWDQWHV
FRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD‫ܥ‬௚ ,\;
(QWRQFHVODGHVFRPSRVLFLyQSXHGHHVFULELUVHFRPR
ܻ ൌ ቀͳ െ ߙ஼௠೛ ቁ ‫ܥ‬௣ ൅ ቀͳ െ ߙ஼௠೒ ቁ ‫ܥ‬௚ ൅ ሺͳ െ ߙூ௠ ሻ‫ ܫ‬൅ ሺͳ െ ߙ௑௠ ሻܺ
GRQGH ORV VXPDQGRV VLQWHWL]DQ OD FRQWULEXFLyQ GH FDGD FRPSRQHQWH GH OD GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD DO
3,%FRUULJLHQGRSRUHOFRQWHQLGRLPSRUWDGRWRWDOGHFDGDXQRGHHOORV
)LQDOPHQWHSDUDFDOFXODUODFRQWULEXFLyQDOFUHFLPLHQWRGH<WHQHPRV
οܻ ൌ ቀͳ െ ߙ஼௠೛ ቁ ο‫ܥ‬௣ െ ቀοߙ஼௠೛ ቁ ‫ܥ‬௣ ൅ ቀͳ െ ߙ஼௠೒ ቁ ο‫ܥ‬௚ െ ቀοߙ஼௠೒ ቁ ‫ܥ‬௚ ൅ሺͳ െ ߙூ௠ ሻο‫ ܫ‬െ ሺοߙூ௠ ሻ‫ ܫ‬൅ ሺͳ െ ߙ௑௠ ሻοܺ െ ሺοߙ௑௠ ሻܺ
% (VWUDWHJLD(PStULFD
'LVSRQLHQGRGHXQDVHULHDQXDOGHPDWULFHV,3FXDGUDGDVDSUHFLRVEiVLFRVSDUDODSURGXFFLyQLQWHUQDD
SUHFLRV FRUULHQWHV \ FRQVWDQWHV HV SRVLEOH FDOFXODU SDUD FDGD REVHUYDFLyQ ODV H[SUHVLRQHV \ FRPRXQHMHUFLFLRGHFRQWDELOLGDGHVWUXFWXUDO
1RREVWDQWHWDOGLVSRQLELOLGDGGHGDWRVHVLQIUHFXHQWHSDUDORVSDtVHVGHODUHJLyQ(QJHQHUDOVH
GLVSRQH GH ORV WDEXODGRV GH RIHUWD \ GHPDQGD JOREDO GH ORV TXH VH REWLHQH OD H[SUHVLyQ D SUHFLRV
FRUULHQWHV\FRQVWDQWHV(QFDPELRHQWpUPLQRVGHLQIRUPDFLyQ,3VHGLVSRQHXVXDOPHQWHGHORV&XDGURV
GH 2IHUWD8WLOL]DFLyQ &28 GH DTXt HQ DGHODQWH D SUHFLRV GH FRPSUDGRU SDUD OD RIHUWD WRWDO GH WLSR
SURGXFWRSRULQGXVWULD\VRODPHQWHSDUDXQDxREDVH(QGLFKRFDVRVHGHEHHVWLPDUXQDWUDQVIRUPDFLyQGH
ORV&28DXQDPDWUL],3DSUHFLRVEiVLFRVGLVWLQJXLHQGRHOFRPSRQHQWHLQWHUQRGHOLPSRUWDGR
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
$Vt VH REWLHQHQ ORV FRHILFLHQWHV GH FRQWHQLGR GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV SRU XQLGDG GH FRPSRQHQWH GHO
JDVWR ߙ஼௠೛ SRU HMHPSOR XWLOL]DQGR OD PDWUL] ,3 GHO DxR EDVH VXSRQLHQGR TXH SHUPDQHFHQ
DSUR[LPDGDPHQWHFRQVWDQWHV\FDOFXODQGRHQWRQFHV
οܻ ൌ ቀͳ െ ߙ஼௠೛ ቁ ο‫ܥ‬௣ ൅ ቀͳ െ ߙ஼௠೒ ቁ ο‫ܥ‬௚ ൅ ሺͳ െ ߙூ௠ ሻο‫ ܫ‬൅ ሺͳ െ ߙ௑௠ ሻοܺ
GRQGH οߙ஼௠೛ ൌ οߙ஼௠೒ ൌ οߙூ௠ ൌ οߙ௑௠ ൌ Ͳ HQ
(Q OD DSOLFDFLyQ HPStULFD D VHJXLU VH LPSOHPHQWD WHQLHQGR SUHVHQWH TXH HV XQD
DSUR[LPDFLyQLPSHUIHFWDVXMHWDDODGLVSRQLELOLGDGGHLQIRUPDFLyQ
&DEHDFODUDUQRREVWDQWHTXHODIRUPXODFLyQDQDOtWLFDSUHVHQWDGDFRQWHPSODWDPELpQHVFHQDULRV
LQWHUPHGLRV3RUHMHPSORFRQVLGHUDQGRVLHPSUHHOFDVRGH‫ܥ‬௣ QyWHVHTXH
௠
ߙ஼௠೛ ൌ ͳ െ ቀͳ െ ߣ௠
஼೛ ቁ ቀͳ െ ߛ஼೛ ቁ
HVGHFLUODHYROXFLyQGHOFRQWHQLGRWRWDOGHLPSRUWDFLRQHVSRUXQLGDGPRQHWDULDGHFRQVXPRSULYDGR
ߙ஼௠೛ GHSHQGHGHXQFRPSRQHQWHTXHUHIOHMDHOFRQWHQLGRGHODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVLQWHUPHGLDVߣ௠
஼೛ \RWURHOGH
௠
௠
DTXHOODVILQDOHVߛ஼೛ 0LHQWUDVTXHSDUDREWHQHUߣ஼೛ HVLQGLVSHQVDEOHGLVSRQHUGHXQDPDWUL],3ߛ஼௠೛ SXHGH
HVWLPDUVHDSDUWLUGHLQIRUPDFLyQFRPSOHPHQWDULD3RUHMHPSORXWLOL]DQGR81&2075$'(H,0),)6
HV SRVLEOH HVWLPDU OD VHSDUDFLyQ GH ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV HQWUH XVRV LQWHUPHGLRV \ ILQDOHV \ GHQWUR GH pVWRV
~OWLPDV VL VH WUDWD GH ELHQHV GH FRQVXPR SULYDGR R GH FDSLWDO 'H HVWH PRGR VHUtD SRVLEOH HVWLPDU OD
HYROXFLyQGH‫ܯ‬௫ \‫ܯ‬௙ DVtFRPRGHVXVFRPSRQHQWHV\HQSDUWLFXODUGHߛ஼௠೛ 3URFHGLHQGRGHHVWHPRGRVHUtD
SRVLEOH GHVFRPSRQHU οܻ FRQWHPSODQGR οߙ஼௠೛ D SDUWLU GH οߛ஼௠೛ D~Q VL οߣ௠
஼೛ VH DVXPH DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH
FRQVWDQWH\HQIRUPDDQiORJDyVLPLODUSDUDORVUHVWDQWHVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD
7UDWiQGRVHGHFRHILFLHQWHVTXHDOXGHQDDWULEXWRVHVWUXFWXUDOHVGHOVLVWHPDSURGXFWLYRTXHHYROXFLRQDQOHQWDPHQWHQRVHWUDWDGHXQ
VXSXHVWRH[FHVLYDPHQWHKHURLFR
/RVGDWRVGH81&RPWUDGH'DWDEDVHSXHGHQDFFHGHUVHGHVGHKWWSFRPWUDGHXQRUJ
/RVGDWRVGH,0),QWHUQDWLRQDO)LQDQFLDO6WDWLVWLFVSXHGHQDFFHGHUVHGHVGHKWWSZZZLPIRUJHQ'DWD
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
,, $SOLFDFLyQHPStULFD\UHVXOWDGRV
$ (VWLPDFLyQGHODVVHULHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQSRUFRPSRQHQWH
GHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD
&RQ HO ILQ GH HVWLPDU HO FRPSRQHQWH LPSRUWDGR GHVWLQDGR GH IRUPD GLUHFWD H LQGLUHFWD D FDGD
FRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGDILQDOSDUDORVFDVRVGHO%UDVLO&KLOH\0p[LFRVHDSOLFyDFDGDXQRGHHVWRV
SDtVHVODPHWRGRORJtDSUHYLDPHQWHGHVFULSWD
/DGLYHUVLGDG GHOD LQIRUPDFLyQ GLVSRQLEOH SDUD FDGD SDtVGD OXJDU D SURFHGLPLHQWRVOHYHPHQWH
GLIHUHQFLDGRV (Q HO FDVR GHO %UDVLO HO SXQWR GH SDUWLGD IXHURQ ORV &XDGURV GH 2IHUWD \ 8WLOL]DFLyQ
&28GH3DUDHVWLPDUOD0DWUL],QVXPR3URGXFWR0,3GHVGHORV&28VHUHFXUULyDOHVTXHPD
GHFRQYHUVLyQGHHVWUXFWXUDGHYHQWDVILMDVSRUSURGXFWR(XURVWDWREWHQLHQGRFRPRUHVXOWDGRHO
HVTXHPDSODQWHDGRHQODHFXDFLyQ
(Q ORV FDVRV GH 0p[LFR \ &KLOH SDtVHV HQ ORV TXH ODV PDWULFHV GH ,QVXPR3URGXFWR VH SXEOLFDQ HQ
IRUPD SHULyGLFD ORV LQVXPRV HVWDGtVWLFRV QHFHVDULRV SDUD HO SURFHGLPLHQWR GH GHVFRPSRVLFLyQ GH ODV
LPSRUWDFLRQHV VH HQFXHQWUDQ GLVSRQLEOHV 3DUD FDGD XQD GH HVWDV HFRQRPtDV VH UHFXUULy D ODV 0,3 FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHVSRUVHUHVWHHO~OWLPRDxREDVHGHODV&XHQWDV1DFLRQDOHV(QHOFDVRSDUWLFXODUGH&KLOHHQ
HOTXHOD0,3QRLQFOX\HODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVILQDOHVHVWDVIXHURQHVWLPDGDVDSDUWLUGHO&28FRUUHVSRQGLHQWH
'HHVWHPRGRVHSDUWHHQORVWUHVFDVRVGHODUUHJORPDWULFLDO,3GHOWLSRLQGXVWULDSRULQGXVWULDD
SUHFLRVEiVLFRV SDUD OD SURGXFFLyQ QDFLRQDO SODQWHDGR HQ OR TXHSHUPLWHSDUD HO DxRHQHO TXH OD
PDWUL] VH HQFXHQWUD GLVSRQLEOH HIHFWXDU ORV FiOFXORV SDUD HVWLPDU ORV SDUiPHWURV ߣ௠ \ ߛ ௠
FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV D FDGD FRPSRQHQWH GH OD GHPDQGD ILQDO REWHQLpQGRVH OD H[SUHVLyQ GH
/DVHVWLPDFLRQHVTXHVHSUHVHQWDQHQHVWHFDStWXORIXHURQHODERUDGDVPHGLDQWHODXWLOL]DFLyQGHO3URJUDPD53URMHFWIRU6WDWLVWLFDO
&RPSXWLQJ
6L ELHQSDUD HO FDVRGHO %UDVLO VH FXHQWD FRQ ORV &28 FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHVD SHUtRGRV PiV UHFLHQWHV KDVWD LQFOXVLYH HVWRV QR
VHSDUDQHOFRPSRQHQWHQDFLRQDOGHOLPSRUWDGRSRUORTXHODXWLOL]DFLyQGHFXDOTXLHU&28SRVWHULRUDUHTXHULUtDHVWLPDUXQD
PDWUL] GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV TXH SHUPLWD GLVWLQJXLU ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV GH XVR ILQDO GH ODV GH XVR LQWHUPHGLR \ SDUD HVWDV ~OWLPDV VX
GLVWULEXFLyQHQWUHLQGXVWULDV
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
GHVFRPSRVLFLyQ GHO 3,% SRU FRPSRQHQWH GLVWLQJXLHQGR SDUD FDGD XQR GH HOORV VX SRUFLyQ LPSRUWDGD
LQWHUPHGLD\ILQDO
/D DXVHQFLD GH PDWULFHV R GDWRV GH LPSRUWDFLyQ SRU ILQDOLGDG FRQ SHULRGLFLGDG DQXDO LPSLGH HO
FiOFXORGHORVFRHILFLHQWHVߣ௠ \ ߛ ௠ GHLPSRUWDFLyQLQWHUPHGLD\ILQDO\SRUORWDQWRGHHVWDH[SUHVLyQ
SDUDWRGRVORVSHUtRGRVFRQORTXHODHODERUDFLyQGHODVHULHGHWLHPSRGHOFUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%VHJ~QHO
PpWRGRDOWHUQDWLYRSXHGHKDFHUVH~QLFDPHQWHPHGLDQWHODH[SUHVLyQ\DFXGLHQGRDOVXSXHVWRGHTXH
HO FRHILFLHQWH ĮP SDUD FDGD FRPSRQHQWH GH OD GHPDQGD ILQDO HVWLPDGR SDUD HO DxR GH OD 0,3 VH
PDQWLHQHHVWDEOHHQHOPHGLDQRSOD]R$~QDVXPLHQGRTXHHVWRVFRHILFLHQWHVSRGUtDQPRGLILFDUVHSRU
DOWHUDFLRQHVHQSUHFLRVUHODWLYRVRFDPELRVEUXVFRVHQODGLQiPLFDGHFUHFLPLHQWRORFDORH[WHUQDHQWUH
RWUDV FDXVDV OD HVWLPDFLyQ GH ODV HFXDFLRQHV GH FDGD FRPSRQHQWH GH OD GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD VLHPSUH
UHIOHMDUiXQFRPSRUWDPLHQWRPiVUHDOLVWDVLVHLQFRUSRUDQHVWRVFRHILFLHQWHVTXHVLVRQRPLWLGRV
$FRQWLQXDFLyQVHSUHVHQWDQORVUHVXOWDGRVREWHQLGRVGHODUHHVWLPDFLyQGHORVDSRUWHVGHFDGD
FRPSRQHQWHGHOJDVWRDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHO%UDVLO0p[LFR\&KLOHHQWUH\
% 5HVXOWDGRV
%UDVLO
/D HFRQRPtD EUDVLOHxD WXYR XQ FUHFLPLHQWR DQXDO SURPHGLR GHO HQ HO SHUtRGR 'H OD
OHFWXUDFRQYHQFLRQDO GH ODV FXHQWDV QDFLRQDOHV VH GHVSUHQGH TXHWRGR HO FUHFLPLHQWR HV DWULEXLEOHD OD
GHPDQGD LQWHUQD PLHQWUDV ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV QHWDV ³QHWDV´ HQ HO VHQWLGR FRQYHQFLRQDO HV GHFLU
GHVFRQWDQGR GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV OD WRWDOLGDG GH OD GHPDQGD GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV UHDOL]DQ XQ DSRUWH
QHJDWLYRGHOGHO3,%HQSURPHGLR
(OFXDGURPXHVWUDORVFRHILFLHQWHVHVSHFtILFRVGHLPSRUWDFLyQGHOFRQVXPRSULYDGRHOFRQVXPRGH
JRELHUQRODLQYHUVLyQ\ODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV$OOtVHREVHUYDFyPRHOFRHILFLHQWHGHLPSRUWDFLRQHVHVPiVDOWR
HQ HO FDVR GH OD LQYHUVLyQ HQ FRPSDUDFLyQ SRU HMHPSOR FRQ HO FRHILFLHQWH DVRFLDGR DO FRQVXPR
SULYDGR (OOR LPSOLFD HQWUH RWUDV FRVDV TXH XQD H[SDQVLyQ GHO FRQVXPR SULYDGR WHQGUi XQ PD\RU
LPSDFWR HQ OD H[SDQVLyQ GHO SURGXFWR LQWHUQR TXH XQD H[SDQVLyQ GH OD LQYHUVLyQ GH OD PLVPD PDJQLWXG
GHELGRDTXHXQDPD\RUSURSRUFLyQGHOJDVWRGHFRQVXPRHVVDWLVIHFKDFRQODSURGXFFLyQLQWHUQD
7DPELpQ VH YHULILFD TXHGHO WRWDO GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV HQODHFRQRPtD SUHGRPLQDQODV GH
ELHQHVLQWHUPHGLRVPiVTXHODVGHELHQHVILQDOHVLQFOXVRHQHOFDVRGHODLQYHUVLyQTXH
PXHVWUDHOPD\RUFRHILFLHQWHGHLPSRUWDFLyQGHELHQHVGHXVRILQDO
&XDGUR
%UDVLOFRHILFLHQWHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
(QSRUFHQWDMHV
7RWDO
&RQVXPR
3ULYDGR
&RQVXPR
3~EOLFR
,QWHUPHGLR
)LQDO
&RHILFLHQWH
7RWDO
([SRUWDFLRQHV
,QYHUVLyQD
)XHQWH(ODERUDFLyQSURSLDVREUHODEDVHGHORV&28,%*(
D,QFOX\HYDULDFLyQGHH[LVWHQFLDV
(QHVWHSXQWRQXHVWURWUDEDMRGLILHUHGHOGH.UDQHQGRQN\9HUEUXJJHQTXHGLVSRQHQGHOYHFWRUGHGHPDQGDILQDOLPSRUWDGD
$ORVHIHFWRVGHHVWXGLDUODYDULDELOLGDGGHORVFRHILFLHQWHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQHQHOPHGLDQRSOD]Rߙ ௠ IXHFDOFXODGRSDUDODVHFRQRPtDV
GH %UDVLO 0p[LFR \ &KLOH WDQWR SDUD HO SHUtRGR VHOHFFLRQDGR FRPR SDUD RWUR DxR SDUD HO TXH VH FRQWDUD FRQ LQIRUPDFLyQ /RV
UHVXOWDGRVVHSUHVHQWDQHQHO$QH[R$
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
$O FDOFXODU ODV FRQWULEXFLRQHV DO FUHFLPLHQWR GH ORV GLVWLQWRV FRPSRQHQWHV GH OD GHPDQGD
DJUHJDGDHQIXQFLyQGHHVWRVFRHILFLHQWHVVHREVHUYDXQDGLVPLQXFLyQHQHOWDPDxRGHORVDSRUWHVGHORV
WUHV FRPSRQHQWHV GH OD GHPDQGD LQWHUQD \ XQD UHYHUVLyQ GH OD FRQWULEXFLyQ GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV TXH
SDVDDVHUSRVLWLYDJUiILFR
*UiILFR
%UDVLODSRUWHVDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%
(QSRUFHQWDMHV
0pWRGRFRQYHQFLRQDO
0pWRGRDOWHUQDWLYR
&RQVXPRSULYDGR
&RQVXPRS~EOLFR
([SRUWDFLRQHV
3,%
,QYHUVLyQ9DU([
)XHQWH(ODERUDFLyQSURSLDVREUHODEDVHGHGDWRVGHO,%*(
(Q RWUDV SDODEUDV HO HMHUFLFLR GHO SDVDMH GHO PRGHOR FRQYHQFLRQDO DO DOWHUQDWLYR GDGRV ORV
FRHILFLHQWHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQLGHQWLILFDGRVHQFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHOJDVWRVLELHQQRLPSOLFDXQFDPELRHQ
HO RUGHQ GH ODV FRQWULEXFLRQHV GH FDGD FDWHJRUtD GHO JDVWR DO FUHFLPLHQWR ²HQWUH ODV TXH HO PHUFDGR
LQWHUQR HMHUFH XQ URO IXQGDPHQWDO² FDPELD FRPSOHWDPHQWH OD LQWHUSUHWDFLyQ GHO SDSHO TXH MXHJDQ ODV
H[SRUWDFLRQHVHQHOSURFHVRGHH[SDQVLyQ\SHUPLWHUHFRQVLGHUDUODLPSRUWDQFLDUHODWLYDGHORVUHVWDQWHV
FRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD
&RPRVHYHUiDFRQWLQXDFLyQHOGHO%UDVLOHVHO~QLFRFDVRGHORVWUHVDQDOL]DGRVHQHOTXHQRKD\XQ
FDPELR HQ HO RUGHQ H[SOLFDWLYR GH ODV YDULDEOHV DO FUHFLPLHQWR OR TXH QR HV LQGHSHQGLHQWH GHO JUDGR GH
LQWHUQDOL]DFLyQGHODSURGXFFLyQGHODHFRQRPtDEUDVLOHxD(QSDUWLFXODUVHGHVWDFDHOVRVWHQLPLHQWRGHOURO
GHODLQYHUVLyQFRQXQFRHILFLHQWHGHLPSRUWDFLyQTXHD~QVLHQGRPiVHOHYDGRGHOTXHSUHVHQWDQ
ORV RWURV FRPSRQHQWHV GH OD GHPDQGD HV LQFOXVR LQIHULRU DO GH DOJXQDV HFRQRPtDV FHQWUDOHV GH HOHYDGR
JUDGR GH GHVDUUROOR (OOR SRQH GH PDQLILHVWR TXH PiV DOOi GHO SURFHVR GH LQWHUQDFLRQDOL]DFLyQ GH OD
SURGXFFLyQ \ GHO PDUFDGR DXPHQWR GHO FRHILFLHQWH GH LPSRUWDFLyQ HQ HO VHFWRU GH ELHQHV GH FDSLWDO TXH
WXYR OXJDU D SDUWLU GH OD OLEHUDOL]DFLyQ FRPHUFLDO GHO SHUtRGR \ GH OD WHQGHQFLD TXH KDEUtD
.UDQHQGRQN\9HUEUXJJHQDHVWLPDQTXHHOFRHILFLHQWHGHLPSRUWDFLyQGHODLQYHUVLyQHQIXHGHHQ$OHPDQLD
HQ)UDQFLD\HQ,WDOLDHQWUHRWURV
9pDVH1DVVLIEFRQUHODFLyQDOGHVDUUROORLQLFLDOGHODLQGXVWULDGHELHQHVGHFDSLWDOHQ%UDVLO\VXHYROXFLyQKDVWDHODxR
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
HYLGHQFLDGRODHFRQRPtD²MXQWRFRQRWUDVGHODUHJLyQ²DODGHVLQGXVWULDOL]DFLyQHO%UDVLOSUHVHUYDXQ
HQWUDPDGRUHODWLYDPHQWHVyOLGRGHHPSUHVDVSURGXFWRUDVGHELHQHVGHFDSLWDOHLQVXPRVEiVLFRV
0p[LFR
/D HFRQRPtD PH[LFDQD PXFKR PiV SHUPHDGD SRU ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV WXYR XQ FUHFLPLHQWR DQXDO
SURPHGLRHQHOODSVRGHO'LFKRFUHFLPLHQWRGHDFXHUGRFRQHOFyPSXWRWUDGLFLRQDOGH
ODV FXHQWDV QDFLRQDOHV VH H[SOLFD SRU HO FRQVXPR SULYDGR OD LQYHUVLyQ \ HO FRQVXPR S~EOLFR HQ HVH
RUGHQPLHQWUDVODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVKDFHQXQDFRQWULEXFLyQQHJDWLYD$QiORJDPHQWHDORTXHRFXUUHHQHO
FDVR EUDVLOHxR FXDQGR VH FRPSXWDQ ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV HVSHFtILFDV D FDGD DJUHJDGR ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV
SDVDQDFRQWULEXLUSRVLWLYDPHQWH\ODVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGDLQWHUQDUHGXFHQVXDSRUWH
6LELHQHOSHVRGHODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVHQODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVHVVXPDPHQWHHOHYDGRWDPELpQ
ORHVHQHOUHVWRGHODVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGDHQSDUWLFXODUHQODLQYHUVLyQYHU
FXDGUR\HOORH[SOLFDHOWDPDxRGHODGLVPLQXFLyQGHORVDSRUWHVDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHODVFRPSRQHQWHV
LQWHUQDV GHO JDVWR PD\RU HQ WpUPLQRVUHODWLYRVD OD TXH VH YHULILFD HQ HO FDVR GHO %UDVLO DO DSOLFDU OD
PHWRGRORJtDDOWHUQDWLYDYHUJUiILFR3RURWUDSDUWHPiVDOOiGHOHOHYDGRFRHILFLHQWHGHLPSRUWDFLyQ
HQODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVPH[LFDQDVODUHOHYDQFLDGHHVWDV~OWLPDVSDUDH[SOLFDUHOFUHFLPLHQWRUDGLFDHQHO
GLQDPLVPRGHHVWHDJUHJDGR\SRUORWDQWRHQVXFUHFLHQWHSDUWLFLSDFLyQUHODWLYDHQODRIHUWDWRWDOTXH
KDFLDHOFLHUUHGHOSHUtRGRHVWXGLDGRHUDGHO
&RPR VH KDEtD REVHUYDGR SDUD HO FDVR EUDVLOHxR HQ HO GH 0p[LFR DXQTXH HQ WRGDV ODV
FRPSRQHQWHV GHO JDVWR SUHGRPLQDQ ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV LQWHUPHGLDV HV OD LQYHUVLyQ OD TXH SUHVHQWD XQD
PD\RULQFLGHQFLDGHLPSRUWDFLRQHVGHELHQHVGHXVRILQDOORTXHUHIOHMDHOSHVRGHODVFRPSUDV
GHELHQHVGHFDSLWDOHQHOPHUFDGRH[WHUQR
&XDGUR
a
0p[LFRFRHILFLHQWHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD (QSRUFHQWDMHV
7RWDOE
&RQVXPR
3ULYDGR
&RQVXPR
3~EOLFR
7RWDO
,QWHUPHGLR
&RHILFLHQWH
)LQDO
([SRUWDFLRQHV
,QYHUVLyQE
)XHQWH(ODERUDFLyQSURSLDVREUHODEDVHGHOD0,3,1(*,
D
6LELHQORVWDEXODGRVGHODVFXHQWDVQDFLRQDOHVGH0p[LFRSUHVHQWDQXQFRPSRQHQWHGHGLVFUHSDQFLDHVWDGtVWLFD ²GH
UHGXFLGRSHVRUHODWLYRHQODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD² HQHVWHFXDGURVHKDLQYLVLELOL]DGRDORVHIHFWRVGHH[KLELUGHIRUPD
KRPRJpQHDORVUHVXOWDGRVFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHVDODVWUHVHFRQRPtDVVHOHFFLRQDGDV
E
,QFOX\HYDULDFLyQGHH[LVWHQFLDV
6LQHQWUDUHQHOGHEDWHUHVSHFWRGHOPRGHORGHFUHFLPLHQWRTXHDVXPHODHFRQRPtDPH[LFDQDHV
HYLGHQWH TXH GDGR HO YROXPHQ GHODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV HQ HO SURGXFWR XQD PD\RU LQWHJUDFLyQ ORFDO GH OD
SURGXFFLyQ H[SRUWDEOH KDEUtD SRWHQFLDGR HO ULWPR GH FUHFLPLHQWR HFRQyPLFR HQ HO SHUtRGR HVWXGLDGR
&RQUHODFLyQDORVGHEDWHVUHVSHFWRGHOGHVDUUROORGHXQSURFHVRGHGHVLQGXVWULDOL]DFLyQHQ%UDVLOYpDVH3DOPD%UHVVHU3HUHLUD
\1DVVLID)HLMy\2UHLUR)HLMy\/DPRQLFD6DODPD3)HLMy\$UD~MRHQWUHRWURV
(QHOSHUtRGRHOFUHFLPLHQWRGHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVPH[LFDQDVIXHGHO\H[FOX\HQGRORVFXDWURWULPHVWUHVHQORVTXHODVYHQWDVDO
H[WHULRUVHYLHURQDIHFWDGDVSRUODFULVLVJOREDOGHVGHHOFXDUWRWULPHVWUHGHKDVWDHOWHUFHURGHFUHFLHURQDXQULWPRGHO
$OLQLFLRGHOSHUtRGRHVWXGLDGRODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVEUXWDVUHSUHVHQWDEDQHOGHODRIHUWDWRWDO\KDFLDHOILQDOFRQFHQWUDEDQHO
WHQGHQFLDTXHVHPDQWXYRHQORVDxRVVLJXLHQWHVKDVWDDOFDQ]DUFDVLHOHQ
([LVWHQGLYHUVDVPLUDGDVTXHYDQGHVGHODVGH0DQHVFKL|OGR5RGUtJXH]%HQDYLGHV\9HQHJDV0DUWtQH]TXHSODQWHDQ
ODH[LVWHQFLDGHXQPRGHORH[SRUWOHGFRQXQDHOHYDGDFRUUHODFLyQDODUJRSOD]RHQWUHH[SRUWDFLRQHV\FUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%DRWUDV
FRPRODVGH0DWHVDQ]\)XJDURODVR)XMLL\&HUYDQWHVTXHSDUWLHQGRGHODSUHSRQGHUDQFLDGHOPRGHORGHODPDTXLOD
HQ ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV PH[LFDQDV SRQHQ HQ GXGD OD H[LVWHQFLD GH XQD YLQFXODFLyQ GLUHFWD \ VRVWHQLEOH HQWUH H[SRUWDFLRQHV \
FUHFLPLHQWRHFRQyPLFR
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
(VWRQRVRORSRUODUHOHYDQFLDPD\RUTXHSRGUtDQDGTXLULUODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVQHWDVGHVXVLPSRUWDFLRQHV
HVSHFtILFDVVLQRWDPELpQSRUTXHXQDPD\RUGLIXVLyQGHHQFDGHQDPLHQWRVGDUtDOXJDUDXQPD\RUHIHFWR
PXOWLSOLFDGRU0RUHQR%ULG
*UiILFR
0p[LFRDSRUWHVDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%
(QSRUFHQWDMHV
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
-1
Método convencional
Método alternativo
Consumo privado
Consumo público
Exportaciones
PIB
Inversión + VarEx.
)XHQWH(ODERUDFLyQSURSLDVREUHODEDVHGHGDWRVGHO,1(*,
&KLOH
/RV FRHILFLHQWHV GH LPSRUWDFLyQ SRU FRPSRQHQWH GH OD GHPDQGD HODERUDGRV SDUD OD DSOLFDFLyQ GHO
HVTXHPDDOWHUQDWLYRGHHVWLPDFLyQGHO3,%DODHFRQRPtDFKLOHQDPXHVWUDQXQDHVWUXFWXUDIXHUWHPHQWH
SHUPHDGD SRU LPSRUWDFLRQHV HQ WRGRV VXV QLYHOHV HVWDV FRQVWLWX\HQ XQ GH OD RIHUWD WRWDO \ HO
FRHILFLHQWHGHLPSRUWDFLRQHVߙ ௠ VXSHUDHOHQWRGRVORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGDDH[FHSFLyQ
GHOFRQVXPRS~EOLFR
&XDGUR
&KLOHFRHILFLHQWHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
(QSRUFHQWDMHV
7RWDO
&RQVXPR
3ULYDGR
&RQVXPR
3~EOLFR
,QWHUPHGLR
)LQDO
&RHILFLHQWH
7RWDO
)XHQWH(ODERUDFLyQSURSLDVREUHODEDVHGHOD0,3%DQFR&HQWUDOGH&KLOH
D
,QFOX\HYDULDFLyQGHH[LVWHQFLDV
([SRUWDFLRQHV
,QYHUVLyQD
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
/DLQYHUVLyQFRQXQFRHILFLHQWHGHLPSRUWDFLyQGHOVHSUHVHQWDFRPRFDVRSDUDGLJPiWLFR
0LHQWUDV GHVGH HO HVTXHPD FRQYHQFLRQDO GH HVWLPDFLyQ GHO 3,% HVWH FRPSRQHQWH DSDUHFH FRPR HO
VHJXQGRPRWRUGHOFUHFLPLHQWRHQHOSHUtRGR²OXHJRGHOFRQVXPRSULYDGR²ODDSOLFDFLyQGHOPpWRGR
DOWHUQDWLYR DUURMD TXH VROR SXHGH DWULEXtUVHOH XQ GHO FUHFLPLHQWR SURPHGLR DQXDO GH OD HFRQRPtD
FKLOHQDHQHOODSVRTXHIXHGHOGHODQXDOYHUJUiILFR
2WURWDQWRVXFHGHFRQHOFRQVXPRTXHRIUHFHHOFRHILFLHQWHGHLPSRUWDFLyQPiVHOHYDGRGHORVWUHV
SDtVHVHVWXGLDGRV7DOHVDVtTXHFRPRSULQFLSDOGHWHUPLQDQWHGHOFUHFLPLHQWRHOFRQVXPRSULYDGRSDVDGH
H[SOLFDUFDVLHOGHOFUHFLPLHQWRVHJ~QHOPpWRGRWUDGLFLRQDODPHQRVGHOGHDFXHUGR
FRQODDSOLFDFLyQGHOPpWRGRDOWHUQDWLYRGDGRTXHVXFRHILFLHQWHGHLPSRUWDFLyQߙ஼௠ DOFDQ]DDO
(Q HO FDVR GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV WDO FRPR RFXUUH HQ ORV RWURV FDVRV SUHVHQWDGRV HO SDVDMH GHO
PpWRGR WUDGLFLRQDO DO DOWHUQDWLYR LPSOLFD TXH HVRV IOXMRV SDVDQ GH UHDOL]DU XQ DSRUWH QHJDWLYR DO
FUHFLPLHQWR ²TXH DOFDQ]DED D FRQWUDUUHVWDU HQ XQ HO FUHFLPLHQWR SURPRYLGR SRU HO UHVWR GH ODV
FRPSRQHQWHV²DXQRSRVLWLYRGHO\TXHVLWXYLHUDQXQPHQRUFRQWHQLGRLPSRUWDGRDVFLHQGHDO
VXLPSDFWRSRVLWLYRSRGUtDVHUD~QPD\RU
*UiILFR
&KLOHDSRUWHVDOFUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%
(QSRUFHQWDMHV
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Método convencional
Método alternativo
Consumo privado
Consumo público
Exportaciones
PIB
Inversión + VarEx.
)XHQWH(ODERUDFLyQSURSLDVREUHODEDVHGHGDWRVGHO%DQFR&HQWUDOGH&KLOH
)LQDOPHQWH PHUHFH XQD PHQFLyQ OD LQFLGHQFLD GH ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV ILQDOHV HQ OD HFRQRPtD
FKLOHQD SDUWLFXODUPHQWH HOHYDGD HQ HO FDVR GH OD LQYHUVLyQ FRPSRQHQWH HQ OD TXH LQFOXVR VXSHUD
DPSOLDPHQWHDODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVLQWHUPHGLDVODVPiVDOWDVHQWUHODVGHODVWUHVHFRQRPtDVDQDOL]DGDV
(Q HO FDVR GHO FRQVXPR HO FRHILFLHQWH GH LPSRUWDFLRQHV ILQDOHV PiV TXH GXSOLFD HO LGHQWLILFDGR SDUD
0p[LFR\FXDGULSOLFDHOFDOFXODGRSDUDHO%UDVLO3RUORWDQWRXQLPSXOVRVREUHFXDOTXLHUDGHHVWRVGRV
FRPSRQHQWHV YHUtD GREOHPHQWH GHELOLWDGR VX HIHFWR PXOWLSOLFDGRU SRU OD HOHYDGD SDUWLFLSDFLyQ GH ODV
LPSRUWDFLRQHV\HQWUHHOODVGHODVGHELHQHVILQDOHVGHQXORFRQWHQLGRORFDO
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
5HIOH[LRQHVILQDOHV
/DSURSXHVWDPHWRGROyJLFDSUHVHQWDGDHQHVWHGRFXPHQWRQRHVWDQQRYHGRVDFRPRSRFRGLIXQGLGD(O
PpWRGR\VXDSOLFDFLyQIXHHOHMHGHYDULRVGRFXPHQWRVSXEOLFDGRVSRUOD2ILFLQD+RODQGHVDGH$QiOLVLV
GH 3ROtWLFD (FRQyPLFD GHSHQGLHQWH GHO 0LQLVWHULR GH $VXQWRV (FRQyPLFRV GH +RODQGD &3% SRU VXV
VLJODVHQKRODQGpV²TXHSXEOLFDSHULyGLFDPHQWHODFRQWULEXFLyQGHFDGDFRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGD
ILQDO DO FUHFLPLHQWR DMXVWDGD SRU ODV LPSRUWDFLRQHV LQFRUSRUDGDV HQ FDGD XQD GH HOODV² D OD YH] TXH
VXJHULGRSRUYDULRVDUWtFXORVDFDGpPLFRVTXHSXVLHURQGHUHOLHYHODQHFHVLGDGGHFRQWDUFRQGLDJQyVWLFRV
PiVSUHFLVRVUHVSHFWRGHORVPRWRUHVGHFUHFLPLHQWRGHODVHFRQRPtDV
6LQ HPEDUJR DO GtD GH KR\ OD JUDQ PD\RUtD GH ODV HFRQRPtDV GLIXQGH VXV FXHQWDV QDFLRQDOHV
VLJXLHQGR HO FULWHULR FRQYHQFLRQDO TXH FRQVLVWH HQ GHVFRQWDU OD WRWDOLGDG GH OD GHPDQGD GH
LPSRUWDFLRQHVDODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVJHQHUDQGRXQDJUHJDGRDOTXHVHORGHQRPLQDH[SRUWDFLRQHV³QHWDV´
(VWHPHFDQLVPRSURGXFHXQVHVJRGHLQWHUSUHWDFLyQUHVSHFWRGHORVDSRUWHVTXHUHDOL]DFDGDFRPSRQHQWH
GH OD GHPDQGD DO FUHFLPLHQWR GHO 3,% VXEHVWLPDQGR HO URO GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV \ VREUHHVWLPDQGR OD
FRQWULEXFLyQGHODGHPDQGDLQWHUQD
&XDQGR ODV FRPSRQHQWHV LQWHUQDV GH OD GHPDQGD WLHQHQ XQ IXHUWH FRQWHQLGR LPSRUWDGR ²FRPR
RFXUUHHQEXHQDSDUWHGHODVHFRQRPtDVODWLQRDPHULFDQDV²HOHUURUGHGLDJQyVWLFRHQHOTXHVHLQFXUUHEDMR
OD PLUDGD FRQYHQFLRQDO SXHGH VHU PX\ VLJQLILFDWLYR (Q ORV WUHV FDVRV TXH IXHURQ SUHVHQWDGRV ODV
H[SRUWDFLRQHVOHMRVGHKDFHUXQDSRUWHQHJDWLYRDOFUHFLPLHQWRORSRWHQFLDQ\ODGHPDQGDLQWHUQDWLHQHXQ
SRGHUH[SOLFDWLYRPHQRVUHOHYDQWHGHOTXHVXHOHLQIHULUVHGHOHQIRTXHFRQYHQFLRQDO
(QHOFDVRGHO%UDVLOHFRQRPtDFRQXQFRHILFLHQWHGHLPSRUWDFLyQGHOFXDQGRVHHVWLPDQ
ORVDSRUWHVDOFUHFLPLHQWRHFRQyPLFRPHGLDQWHHO³PpWRGRDOWHUQDWLYR´R³PpWRGRKRODQGpV´SURSXHVWR
HQHVWHGRFXPHQWRODVFRPSRQHQWHVLQWHUQDVGHODGHPDQGDUHGXFHQHQXQVXSRGHUH[SOLFDWLYR(Q
HO FDVR GH 0p[LFR GRQGH XQ GH OD GHPDQGD WRWDO HV LPSRUWDGD ODV FRPSRQHQWHV LQWHUQDV GHO
JDVWR UHGXFHQHQ VXLPSRUWDQFLD SDUD H[SOLFDU HO FUHFLPLHQWR (Q &KLOH HFRQRPtD HQ OD TXH HO
GH OD GHPDQGD HV LPSRUWDGDODV FRPSRQHQWHV LQWHUQDV GHOJDVWR UHDOL]DQXQ DSRUWH PiV
EDMRGHOTXHVXUJHGHOPpWRGRFRQYHQFLRQDO
&HQWUDO3ODQQLQJ%XUHDX
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
(VWDVGLIHUHQFLDVVXHOHQGHVFRQRFHUVHRVXEHVWLPDUVHDULHVJRGHSHUGHUGHYLVWDODWUDVFHQGHQFLD
GHO FRQWHQLGR LPSRUWDGR HQ OD FDQDVWD GH FRQVXPR GH ORV KRJDUHV \ HO JRELHUQR HQ OD LQYHUVLyQ \
WDPELpQ HQ ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV \ SRU OR WDQWR GHO HIHFWR PXOWLSOLFDGRU TXH SXHGH JHQHUDU XQ VKRFN
GLUHFFLRQDGRDDOJXQRGHHOORV(QHOFDVRGHORVSDtVHVGH$PpULFD/DWLQDWtSLFDPHQWHFRQGLFLRQDGRV
SRU OD LQVXILFLHQFLD GH GLYLVDV UHVWULFFLyQ H[WHUQD HO RULJHQ GH ORV ELHQHV TXH VH GHPDQGDQ
LQWHUQDPHQWHSDUDFRQVXPRLQYHUVLyQRHODERUDFLyQGHELHQHVH[SRUWDEOHVFREUDXQLQWHUpVHVSHFLDO
/D XWLOL]DFLyQ GHO PpWRGR DOWHUQDWLYR GH HVWLPDFLyQ GH ODV FRQWULEXFLRQHV GH ORV GLVWLQWRV
FRPSRQHQWHV GH OD GHPDQGD DO FUHFLPLHQWR VXSRQH XQ PD\RU HVIXHU]R UHVSHFWR GH OD PLUDGD
FRQYHQFLRQDO HQ OD PHGLGD HQ TXH GHEH HVWDEOHFHUVH XQD LQWHUID] HQWUH OD LGHQWLGDG FRQWDEOH SDUD OD
GHPDQGD JOREDO VHJ~Q IXHQWH GH JDVWR SUHVHQWDGD KDELWXDOPHQWH \ ODV PDJQLWXGHV GH XQ HVTXHPD
,QVXPR3URGXFWR TXH GLVWLQJXH HO FRPSRQHQWH GH SURGXFFLyQ LQWHUQD GH DTXHO LPSRUWDGR $~Q DVt XQ
HOHPHQWRDIDYRUHVTXH YDULRVSDtVHVGHODUHJLyQFXHQWDQFRQODVHVWDGtVWLFDVTXH VHUHTXHULUtDQSDUD
OOHYDUDFDERHVWHHMHUFLFLRFRQUHJXODULGDG
(QHIHFWRH[LVWHXQDFDQWLGDGLPSRUWDQWHGHSDtVHVTXHHODERUDQ\GLIXQGHQVXPDWUL]LQVXPR
SURGXFWR R ELHQ SRQHQ D GLVSRVLFLyQ XQD VHULH GH LQVXPRV TXH SHUPLWLUtDQ HVWLPDUOD (V HO FDVR GHO
%UDVLO &KLOH \ 0p[LFR SUHVHQWDGRV HQ HVWH GRFXPHQWR \ HO GH $UJHQWLQD &RORPELD &RVWD 5LFD
(FXDGRU-DPDLFD1LFDUDJXD\OD5HS~EOLFD%ROLYDULDQDGH9HQH]XHOD
(Q GHILQLWLYD HO FiOFXOR GH ORV DSRUWHV DO FUHFLPLHQWR GHO SURGXFWR SRGUtD PHMRUDUVH SDUD XQD
FDQWLGDGUHOHYDQWHGHSDtVHVGH$PpULFD/DWLQD\HO&DULEH(OOREULQGDUtDXQGLDJQyVWLFRPiVSUHFLVRGH
ORVIDFWRUHVH[SOLFDWLYRVGHOFUHFLPLHQWR\GDUtDPD\RUHVSLVWDVGHKDFLDDGRQGHDYDQ]DUHQPDWHULDGH
SROtWLFDHFRQyPLFD
7RGRV HVWRV SDtVHV GLVSRQHQ GH XQD PDWUL] LQVXPRSURGXFWR ²R GH FXDGURV GH RIHUWD \ XWLOL]DFLyQ TXH SHUPLWLUtDQ HVWLPDUOD²
HODERUDGD FRQ EDVHV UHODWLYDPHQWH UHFLHQWHV HQ WpUPLQRV GH FRQWDELOLGDG QDFLRQDO ODV PiV DQWLJXDV VRQ ODV GH OD $UJHQWLQD
1LFDUDJXD \ -DPDLFD FRQ EDVH HQ ORV DxRV \ UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH WRGR HO UHVWR SRVHH FRPR EDVH HO DxR R
SRVWHULRU /D H[FHSFLyQ HV OD 5HS %ROLYDULDQD GH 9HQH]XHOD FX\D ~OWLPD 0,3 GDWD GHO DxR ([LVWH LQIRUPDFLyQ LQVXPR
SURGXFWRGHODVHFRQRPtDVGH3DUDJXD\\HO8UXJXD\SHURQRVHKDSRGLGRDFFHGHUDHOODSDUDDQDOL]DUOD
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
%LEOLRJUDItD
$N\V < ³([SRUW 'HSHQGHQFH DQG 6XVWDLQDELOLW\ RI *URZWK LQ &KLQD´ &KLQD :RUOG (FRQRP\
9RO1ƒ&KLQHVH$FDGHP\RI6RFLDO6FLHQFHV,QVWLWXWHRI:RUOG(FRQRPLFVDQG3ROLWLFV
%UHVVHU3HUHLUD/&³0DOGLomRGRVUHFXUVRVQDWXUDLV´)ROKDGH63DXORGHMXQKRGH
BBBBB³'HVLQGXVWULDOL]DomRHGRHQoDKRODQGHVD´)ROKDGH63DXORGHDEULOGH
%UHVVHU3HUHLUD / & \ 1 0DUFRQL ³([LVWH GRHQoD KRODQGHVD QR %UDVLO"´ HQ 'RHQoD KRODQGHVD H
LQG~VWULD)XQGDomR*HWXOLR9DUJDV
(XURVWDW(XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ ³(XURVWDW 0DQXDO RI 6XSSO\ 8VH DQG ,QSXW2XWSXW 7DEOHV´ 2IILFH
IRU2IILFLDO3XEOLFDWLRQVRIWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPXQLWLHV
)HLMy & \ /DPRQLFD 07 ³,PSRUWDQFLD GHO VHFWRU LQGXVWULDO SDUD HO GHVDUUROOR GH OD HFRQRPtD
EUDVLOHxD´5HYLVWDGHOD&(3$/1ƒ
)HLMy&\-2UHLUR³'HVLQGXVWULDOL]DomRFRQFHLWXDomRFDXVDVHIHLWRVHRFDVREUDVLOHLUR´ 5HYLVWD
GH(FRQRPLD3ROtWLFD9RO1ƒ
)XMLL *DPEHUR * \ 5 &HUYDQWHV ³0p[LFR YDORU DJUHJDGR HQ ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV PDQXIDFWXUHUDV´
5HYLVWDGHOD&(3$/1ƒ
)UHQFK'DYLV5³,V&KLOHDPRGHOIRUHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW"´)DFXOWDGGH(FRQRPtD\1HJRFLRV
8QLYHUVLGDGGH&KLOH'RFXPHQWRVGHWUDEDMR1ƒ
+XPPHOV ' ,VKLL - \ . <L ³7KH QDWXUH DQG JURZWK RI YHUWLFDO VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ LQ ZRUOG WUDGH´
-RXUQDORILQWHUQDWLRQDO(FRQRPLFV1ƒ
.UDQHQGRQN + \ - 9HUEUXJJHQ ³+RZ WR GHWHUPLQH WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI GRPHVWLF GHPDQG DQG
H[SRUWV WR HFRQRPLF JURZWK"´ &3% 0HPRUDQGXP 1ƒ &3% 1HWKHUODQGV %XUHDX IRU (FRQRPLF
3ROLF\$QDO\VLV
BBBBB D ³'HFRPSRVLWLRQ RI *'3 JURZWK LQ (XURSHDQ &RXQWULHV´ &3% 0HPRUDQGXP 1ƒ &3%
1HWKHUODQGV%XUHDXIRU(FRQRPLF3ROLF\$QDO\VLV
BBBBBE³'HFRPSRVLWLRQRI*'3JURZWKLQVRPH(XURSHDQ&RXQWULHVDQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV´&3%
0HPRUDQGXP1ƒ&3%1HWKHUODQGV%XUHDXIRU(FRQRPLF3ROLF\$QDO\VLV
.ZDDN 7 ³$ &XPXODWLYH 3URGXFWLRQ 6WUXFWXUH 0DWUL[ IRU 'XWFK 60(V´ 3DQWHLD(,0 5HVHDUFK
5HSRUWV5HIHUHQFHQXPEHU+
0DQHVFKL|OG32³$QRWHRQWKHH[SRUWOHGJURZWKK\SRWKHVLV$WLPHVHULHVDSSURDFK´&XDGHUQRV
GHHFRQRPtD9RO1ƒ
0DWHVDQ] ' \ * )XJDURODV ³([SRUW/HG*URZWK K\SRWKHVLV UHYLVLWHG $ EDODQFH RI SD\PHQWV
DSSURDFKIRU$UJHQWLQD%UD]LO&KLOHDQG0H[LFR´'RFXPHQWRGH7UDEDMR1ƒ)XQGDFLyQGHODV
&DMDVGH$KRUURV
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
0LOOHU5(\%ODLU3'³,QSXWRXWSXWDQDO\VLVIRXQGDWLRQVDQGH[WHQVLRQV´&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
1DVVLI $ D ³+i HYLGrQFLDV GH GHVLQGXVWULDOL]DomR QR %UDVLO"´ %UD]LOLDQ -RXUQDO RI 3ROLWLFDO
(FRQRP\9RO1ž
1DVVLI$E³(VWUXFWXUD\FRPSHWLWLYLGDGGHODLQGXVWULDEUDVLOHxDGHELHQHVGHFDSLWDO´ 5HYLVWDGHOD
&(3$/1ƒ
3DOPD - * ³'HLQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ µSUHPDWXUH¶ GHLQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ DQG WKH GXWFKGLVHDVH´ 5HYLVWD
1(&$7$xR1ƒ
5RGUtJXH] %HQDYLGHV ' \ ) 9HQHJDV0DUWtQH] ³(IHFWRV GH ODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV HQ HO FUHFLPLHQWR
HFRQyPLFRGH0p[LFR8QDQiOLVLVGHFRLQWHJUDFLyQ´(FRQR4XDQWXP9RO1ƒ
6DODPD 3LHUUH ³&KLQD%UDVLO LQGXVWULDOL]DFLyQ \ µGHVLQGXVWULDOL]DFLyQ WHPSUDQDµ ´ &XDGHUQRV GH
(FRQRPtD9RO1ƒ
9DQGHU+HOP55+RHNVWUD \+ )DDVGUHHI³$WWULEXWLQJTXDUWHUO\*'3JURZWKUDWHVRIWKHHXUR
DUHDWRILQDOGHPDQGFRPSRQHQWV´6WDWLVWLFV1HWKHUODQGV'LYLVLRQRI0DFUR(FRQRPLF6WDWLVWLFVDQG
'LVVHPLQDWLRQ'HYHORSPHQWDQG6XSSRUW'HSDUWPHQW
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
$QH[R
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
&XDGUR$
&RHILFLHQWHVGHLPSRUWDFLyQ αm SRUFRPSRQHQWHGHODGHPDQGD
%UDVLO\0p[LFR\\&KLOH\
(QSRUFHQWDMHV
3DtVDxR
7RWDO
HFRQRPtD
&RQVXPR
SULYDGR
&RQVXPRGH
JRELHUQR
,QYHUVLyQD
([SRUWDFLRQHV
&KLOH
&KLOH
0p[LFR
0p[LFR
%UDVLO
%UDVLO
)XHQWH,%*(,1(*,\%DQFR&HQWUDOGH&KLOH
D
,QFOX\HIRUPDFLyQEUXWDGHFDSLWDOILMR\YDULDFLyQGHH[LVWHQFLDV
&(3$/6HULH(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV±1ƒ
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQDOWHUQDWLYDGHORVFRPSRQHQWHVGHODGHPDQGD
6HULH
(VWXGLRV\3HUVSHFWLYDV±%XHQRV$LUHV
1~PHURVSXEOLFDGRV
8QOLVWDGRFRPSOHWRDVtFRPRORVDUFKLYRVSGIHVWiQGLVSRQLEOHVHQ
ZZZFHSDORUJSXEOLFDFLRQHV
'HVFRPSRVLFLyQ DOWHUQDWLYD GH ORV FRPSRQHQWHV GH OD GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD +DFLD XQ DQiOLVLV GHO FRUWR SOD]R FRQ PiV
FRQWHQLGRHVWUXFWXUDO$QDKt$PDU0DWtDV7RUFKLQVN\/DQGDX\$ULHO:LUNLHUPDQ/&//&%8(/DJRVWR
GH
(VWUXFWXUD SURGXFWLYD\ YXOQHUDELOLGDG H[WHUQD8Q PRGHORHVWUXFWXUDOLVWD VWRFNIOXMRFRQVLVWHQWH6HEDVWLiQ9DOGHFDQWRV
/&//&%8(/DEULOGH
/D SROtWLFD LQGXVWULDO HQ OD $UJHQWLQDGXUDQWH OD GpFDGDGH 3DEOR /DYDUHOOR \ 0DULDQHOD 6DUDELD /&/
/&%8(/GLFLHPEUHGH
'LVWULEXFLyQ IXQFLRQDO GHO LQJUHVR HQ OD $UJHQWLQD 6XVDQD .LG\ED \ 'DQLHO 9HJD /&/
/&%8(/QRYLHPEUHGH
7LSRGHFDPELRUHDO\GLYHUVLILFDFLyQSURGXFWLYDHQ$PpULFDGHO6XU*RQ]DOR%HUQDW /&//&%8(/
MXQLR
&DPELRHVWUXFWXUDO\GHVDUUROORHILFLHQFLDNH\QHVLDQD\VFKXPSHWHULDQDHQODLQGXVWULDPDQXIDFWXUHUDDUJHQWLQDHQHO
SHUtRGR'LHJR5LYDV\9HUyQLFD5REHUW/&//&%8(/DEULO
0LGLHQGRODVIXHQWHVGHOFUHFLPLHQWRHQXQDHFRQRPtDLQHVWDEOH$UJHQWLQD3URGXFWLYLGDG\IDFWRUHVSURGXFWLYRVSRU
VHFWRUGHDFWLYLGDGHFRQyPLFD \ SRUWLSRGHDFWLYR$ULHO&RUHPEHUJ /&/3/&%8(/1žGHYHQWD
6,,*86MXOLR
'HYHORSPHQW RI WHFKQRORJLFDO FDSDELOLWLHV LQ DQ H[WUHPHO\ YRODWLOH HFRQRP\ 7KH LQGXVWULDO VHFWRU LQ $UJHQWLQD
%HUQDUGR.RVDFRII/&/3/&%8(/1žGHYHQWD(,,*860DUFK
&RPHUFLRLQYHUVLyQ\IUDJPHQWDFLyQGHOPHUFDGRJOREDO¢HVWiTXHGDQGRDWUiV$PpULFD/DWLQD"%HUQDUGR.RVDFRII
$QGUpV/ySH]0DUD3HGUD]]ROL/&/3/&%8(/1žGHYHQWD6,,*86MXOLRGH
7UDGH LQYHVWPHQW DQG IUDJPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH JOREDO PDUNHW ,V /DWLQ $PHULFD ODJJLQJ EHKLQG" %HUQDUGR .RVDFRII
$QGUpV/ySH]0DUD3HGUD]]ROL/&/L3/&%8(/L6DOHV1R(,,*86-DQXDU\
3ROtWLFDWULEXWDULDHQ$UJHQWLQD(QWUHODVROYHQFLD \OD HPHUJHQFLD2VFDU&HWUiQJROR \-XDQ&DUORV *yPH]6DEDLQL
/&/3/&%8(/1žGHYHQWD6,,*86MXQLRGH
2EMHWLYRV GH 'HVDUUROOR GHO 0LOHQLR 2'0 XQD HYDOXDFLyQ FXDQWLWDWLYD GH OD SURYLQFLD GH 6DQ -XDQ 5LFDUGR
0DUWtQH]FRRUG\'DQLHO2\DU]~QFRRUG/&/3/&%8(/1žGHYHQWD6,,*86
PD\RGH
,QQRYDWLRQ DQG 7HFKQRORJ\ 3ROLF\ ,73 IRU FDWFKLQJ XS D 7KUHH 3KDVH /LIH &\FOH )UDPHZRUN IRU ,QGXVWULDOL]LQJ
(FRQRPLHV*LO$YQLPHOHFK0RUULV7HXEDO/&/3/&%8(/1žGHYHQWD(,,*86
)HEUXDU\
$UJHQWLQD \ HO PHUFDGR PXQGLDO GH VXV SURGXFWRV /XFDV /ODFK /&/3 /&%8(/ 1ž GH YHQWD
6,,*86DJRVWRGH
7ZRHVVD\VRQGHYHORSPHQW HFRQRPLFV'DQLHO+H\PDQQ/&/3/&%8(/6DOHV1R(,,*
86-XO\
(O PHUFDGR GH WUDEDMR DUJHQWLQR HQ HO ODUJR SOD]R ORV DxRV GH OD HFRQRPtD DJURH[SRUWDGRUD /XLV %HFFDULD
/&/3/&%8(/1žGHYHQWD6,,*86MXQLRGH
/DHFRQRPtDDUJHQWLQDHQWUHODJUDQJXHUUD\ODJUDQGHSUHVLyQ3DEOR*HUFKXQRIIDQG+RUDFLR$JXLUUH/&/3
/&%8(/1žGHYHQWD6,,*86PD\RGH
%XVFDQGR OD WHQGHQFLD FULVLV PDFURHFRQyPLFD \ UHFXSHUDFLyQ HQ OD $UJHQWLQD 'DQLHO +H\PDQQ /&/3
/&%8(/1žGHYHQWD6,,*86DEULOGH
47
ESTUDIOS Y PERSPECTIVAS
COMISIÓN ECONÓMICA PARA AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE
ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
www.cepal.org
Descargar