ISSN 2315-1552 Social Europe Aiming for inclusive growth Annual report of the Social Protection Committee on the social situation in the European Union (2014) SOCIAL EUROPE: AIMING FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH Annual report of the Social Protection Committee on the social situation in the European Union (2014) Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission may be held responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this publication. © Cover photo: Thinkstock For any use or reproduction of photos which are not under European Union copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holder(s). Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2015 ISBN 978-92-79-44100-4 doi:10.2767/355771 © European Union, 2015 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Table of Contents Acknowledgments........................................................................................................ 8 Introduction................................................................................................................... 9 Key messages on the social situation in the EU.................................................... 11 1. Recent developments in the overarching social policy setting at EU level . 14 2. The social situation in the European Union ...................................................... 15 2.1 Macro-economic and labour market context ...................................................................................... 15 2.2 Little progress on the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target .................................... 22 2.3 What are the drivers behind increased poverty and social exclusion at EU level?................... 26 2.4 Developments in the relative poverty risk .............................................................................................. 36 2.5 Deterioration in living standards and increasing depth of poverty are becoming a very tangible consequence of the economic crisis in some countries................................................... 41 2.6 Long-term exclusion from the labour market continues to be a main driver of increasing trends in poverty and social exclusion .................................................................................................... 47 2.7 While the overall share of working poor is stable at EU level, there is strong divergence in trends across Member States ..................................................................................................................... 49 2.8 The situation regarding child poverty and youth exclusion is a major concern ....................... 49 2.9 Income inequality is growing across and within Member States ................................................... 58 2.10 Mixed effectiveness of income support systems for those furthest away from the labour market ................................................................................................................................................................ 60 2.11 Consistent and widespread improvement of the employment rate of older workers ........... 64 2.12 Pensions continue to avert poverty for many though divergence in adequacy and effectiveness remains .................................................................................................................................... 66 2.13 Access to health and health outcomes ................................................................................................... 70 2.14 Developments in access to housing and homelessness ................................................................... 74 2.15 Trends in the take-up of selected social benefits ................................................................................ 84 3 2.16 Signs of more positive trends emerging regarding the number of unemployment benefit recipients ........................................................................................................................................................... 84 2.17 Countries with downward trends in both unemployment benefit recipients and social assistance benefit recipients ....................................................................................................................... 85 2.18 Potential continued gaps in social benefits' coverage in some Member States ....................... 86 2.19 More mixed developments in terms of the number of benefit recipients from social assistance schemes ........................................................................................................................................ 88 3. Examining the 2013 social trends to watch ...................................................... 89 3.1 Key messages from the thematic in-depth reviews ............................................................................ 89 3.2 Social protection and youth exclusion in the EU ................................................................................. 90 3.2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 90 3.2.2 Recent trends and future challenges ..................................................................................................... 91 3.2.3 Youth employment ....................................................................................................................................... 92 3.2.4 Poverty and social exclusion of young people ................................................................................... 95 3.2.5 RISK FACTORS .................................................................................................................................................... 98 3.2.6 Future challenges ........................................................................................................................................100 3.2.7 Social inclusion and social protection of young people – policies and practices ...............101 3.2.8 Results of the in-depth thematic review .............................................................................................110 3.3 Depth of poverty .......................................................................................................................................... 112 3.3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................112 3.3.2 Recent trends ................................................................................................................................................114 3.3.3 Policy responses ...........................................................................................................................................115 3.3.4 The need for a comprehensive social investment approach ......................................................122 3.3.5 Results of the in-depth thematic review .............................................................................................122 3.4 The role of activating and enabling benefits and services in reducing long-term exclusion from the labour market in the EU ........................................................................................................... 124 3.4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................124 4 3.4.2 Recent trends ................................................................................................................................................125 3.4.3 Policies, best practices and evidence-based responses................................................................131 3.4.4 Results of the thematic in-depth review .............................................................................................141 4. The 2014 social trends to watch .......................................................................143 5. SPPM dashboard .................................................................................................148 6. Views of the European Social Partners ............................................................151 7. Country Profiles....................................................................................................161 Belgium ......................................................................................................................162 Bulgaria ......................................................................................................................173 Czech Republic .........................................................................................................184 Denmark ....................................................................................................................195 Germany ....................................................................................................................206 Estonia ........................................................................................................................217 Ireland ........................................................................................................................228 Greece ........................................................................................................................239 Spain ...........................................................................................................................249 France.........................................................................................................................259 Croatia........................................................................................................................270 Italy .............................................................................................................................280 Cyprus ........................................................................................................................289 Latvia ..........................................................................................................................300 Lithuania ....................................................................................................................310 Luxembourg ..............................................................................................................321 5 Hungary .....................................................................................................................331 Malta...........................................................................................................................342 Netherlands ...............................................................................................................353 Austria ........................................................................................................................364 Poland ........................................................................................................................376 Portugal .....................................................................................................................387 Romania .....................................................................................................................398 Slovenia ......................................................................................................................409 Slovakia ......................................................................................................................420 Finland ........................................................................................................................431 Sweden ......................................................................................................................443 United Kingdom .......................................................................................................453 8. References.............................................................................................................467 9. Definitions and data sources .............................................................................468 6 Abbreviation Full name EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK European Union (28 countries) European Union (27 countries) Euro area (18 countries) Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Croatia Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom 7 Acknowledgments The present report has been prepared as part of the mandate given to the Social Protection Committee (SPC) by the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) to monitor the social situation in the European Union and the development of social protection policies (art. 160 of TFEU). The report is prepared by the Secretariat of the Committee and its Indicators' Sub-group. The Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion provided the necessary analysis and calculations used in the report with the extensive assistance and data provision of Eurostat. The principal authors are Paul Minty and Kornelia Kozovska, with specific contributions from Susanne Conze, Istvan Vanyolos, Maria Ilies, Andrea Meszaros, and Regina Sauto. Eurofound (European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions) has contributed extensively to the section on youth exclusion and social protection. The members of the SPC and its Indicators Subgroup contributed extensively to the drafting of the report and its key messages. The views of the European social partners are annexed to the report. The report was approved by the Social Protection Committee on 23 February 2015. The Council of the European Union endorsed the conclusions of the report on 9 March 2015. The list of SPC Members appears on the following link: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=758&langId=en The list of members of the SPC Indicators' Subgroup appears on the following link: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=830&langId=en 8 Introduction This edition of the annual review of the social situation in the European Union (EU) delivers on the core Treaty task of the Social Protection Committee (SPC) to monitor the social situation in the Member States and the European Union (art. 160 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union). The SPC is an advisory policy Committee which provides a representative forum for multilateral social policy coordination, dialogue and cooperation at EU level. It brings together policy makers from all EU Member States and the Commission in an effort to identify, discuss and implement the policy mix that is most fitted to respond to the various challenges faced by social policies. It uses the social open method of coordination as the main policy framework combining all major social policy strands: social inclusion, pensions, health and long-term care. This year's report on the social situation shows little improvement in the overall situation in the EU, with continued disparities across Member States and a worsening situation in several. Even though trends are more mixed than in previous years, with 11 Member States registering statistically significant falls in poverty and social exclusion in 2013, around a 1/3 still saw significant rises, and the most recent figures for the EU at-risk-of poverty or social exclusion rate point to stagnation at a high level. These latest figures on living and income conditions in the EU show that the EU is not making any progress towards achieving its Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target of lifting at least 20 million people from poverty and social exclusion by 2020. In 2013 there were 4.8 million more people living in poverty or social exclusion in the EU28 compared to 2008, and a total of 122.6 million or close to 1 in 4 Europeans. The current economic situation poses a major challenge to policy makers trying to fight poverty and social exclusion. The emphasis needs to shift from short-term measures to structural reforms in order to spur economic growth, raise employment and tackle in-work poverty, and guarantee adequate levels of social protection and access to quality services. Social policies alone cannot deliver on the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target. Reaching this objective must be supported by other public policies in the economic, employment, tax and education fields. This edition of the annual review of the social situation in the EU focuses on the results from the latest edition of the Social Protection Performance Monitor (SPPM), which is based on a set of key indicators for monitoring developments in the social situation, and has three main objectives: i) analysing the most recent trends in the social situation in Europe, ii) providing an in-depth review of the key challenges for the EU identified by the 2013 social trends to watch as endorsed by the SPC, and iii) identifying what are the 2014 social trends to watch. It should be borne in mind that analysis mainly focuses on the indicators included in the SPPM and that data used in the report can refer to different years for different types of information (e.g. income versus labour market developments), due to the different sources and reference periods of the data collected. 9 To start, chapter 1 provides a summary of the recent developments in the overarching policy setting at EU level, with a focus on the adoption of the scoreboard of key employment and social indicators to strengthen the social dimension of the EMU and the discussions in the context of the mid-term review of the Europe 2020 strategy. Chapter 2 then analyses the latest available figures for the set of social indicators included in the Social Protection Performance Monitor, which present a summary picture of the social situation in the EU. It draws upon some additional context information, including the broad macro-economic and labour market situation in the EU and specific administrative data on benefit recipients, collected through SPC delegates, in order to provide a comprehensive view on the main developments in social policy outcomes across Member States. The chapter also includes special focuses on developments in access to housing and summaries of information provided via the SPC on how Member States have developed complementary approaches for monitoring social developments during the recent period of crisis. Chapter 3 focuses on the key quantitative information underlying some of the social trends to watch identified in the previous SPC report (Social Protection Committee (2013)), namely worsening depth of poverty, long-term labour market exclusion and youth exclusion, their social and economic impact and most importantly the policy measures with proven effect against these trends. It is the product of a series of in-depth thematic reviews on these policy challenges held in 2014/15 which saw Member States engage in analysing their positive and negative performance and the potential for transferability of policy measures across different Member States and institutional contexts. A first group of countries presented the policy framework in place enabling them to register positive developments in the given areas. The countries concerned by clearly negative social trends formed the second group of countries, and reviewed key elements of the successful policy approaches of the first group and the scope for transferring these to their own social protection systems. Chapter 4 presents the 2014 results of the Social Protection Performance Monitor and the social trends to watch based on the latest available data, as well as the resulting topics for thematic indepth reviews in 2014 based on these trends. The report ends with country profiles for all Member States which provide a detailed snapshot of the main social indicators for each country, the progress towards the national 2020 poverty and social exclusion target, and the evolution in benefit recipients for a selected number of benefit schemes.1 1 The report is to be read in conjunction with the SPC report on "Social policy reforms for growth and cohesion: Review of recent structural reforms 2014", adopted in October 2014, which outlines the most important policy measures taken in 2014 in the fields of social protection and social inclusion. 10 Key messages on the social situation in the EU 1. Although the EU has resumed economic growth, the recovery remains subdued and recent GDP forecasts for the EU have been revised down. Despite the weak macroeconomic background, employment has shown a small but consistent growth in the EU since mid2013 and in the large majority of EU Member States (although this is yet to be fully reflected in all social indicators), and this has led to a slight easing in the pressure on social protection systems in many Member States. Nevertheless, labour market and social conditions remain extremely challenging. 2. Long-term unemployment and low employment opportunities for youth (15-24) and young adults aged 25-39 are some of the major challenges in the EU labour market. At the same time, poverty and social exclusion have risen over recent years in most Member States, affecting particularly the working age population and, by extension, children. Although some of these challenges may have recently eased slightly, they remain substantial and need to be tackled urgently. 3. This year‘s results of the Social Protection Performance Monitor, as outlined in the 2014 SPC Annual report on the social situation in the EU, show the situation to have stabilised at EU level, although there continue to be disparities across Member States and a worsening situation in some. Compared to the results from last year‘s edition, there is a more mixed picture across the EU with the following social trends to watch for the latest period being identified in around a third or more of all Member States: 4. increases in the risk of poverty and especially its depth for the overall population; continued rise in the share of the population in (quasi-) jobless households; increasing housing cost overburden rate; declines in real gross household disposable income; increase in the share of the working poor. These social trends to watch are partly balanced by positive developments in the labour market participation of older workers and the further reduction in the rate of early school leavers. Owing to the structural stabilising role of social protection, and pensions in particular, the income and living conditions situation of the elderly continues to improve relative to the rest of the population. 11 5. The EU is still not making any progress towards achieving its Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target of lifting at least 20 million people from poverty and social exclusion by 2020. In 2013 there were 4.8 million more people living in poverty or social exclusion in the EU28 as compared to 2008, i.e. a total of 122.6 million or close to 1 in 4 Europeans. Even though 11 Member States registered statistically significant falls in poverty and social exclusion in 2013, around 1/3 still saw significant rises. Furthermore, national targets continue to vary in their ambition and do not add to the EU collective headline target. 6. Based on the thematic reviews which the SPC undertook on the 2013 social trends to watch – youth exclusion, long-term exclusion from the labour markets, and depth of poverty, the following main policy conclusions are to be considered: In the context of high and persistent unemployment among young people and the related risks of youth exclusion, social protection systems have an important role to play in supporting labour market integration and helping young people to bridge difficult periods of transition from education and training to work and employment of progressively higher quality. The in-depth review made clear that further exchange on the efficiency and effectiveness of the different approaches is needed. The long-term unemployed form a heterogeneous group with specific and different obstacles such as health concerns, difficulty in reconciling work and family life, social problems, or lack of skills. Alongside labour supply measures, understanding the profile of the target population is crucial to effectively implement policies and support their sustainable re-integration into the labour market. Measures need to take a comprehensive approach, tailored around individual needs in order to be effective, including targeted activation, adequate income support and enabling services. Drivers behind severe poverty and social exclusion are multiple. They can vary across an individual's life-cycle and are closely related to the wider economic and labour market context. Comprehensive, needs-driven, preventive and individualised approaches can contribute to avoiding and alleviating poverty and social exclusion in an effective and sustainable manner. Social investments are part and parcel of such approaches by targeting specific needs arising across the lifecycle, ensuring adequate income support and providing access to quality enabling services, supporting individuals in critical transitions. 7. The EU social market economy needs to be strengthened. The emphasis needs to shift from short-term measures to structural reforms in order to spur economic growth and social cohesion, raise employment and tackle in-work poverty, improve the effectiveness and efficiency of social protection and guarantee adequate levels of social protection and living standards and access to quality enabling services. 12 8. Social policies alone cannot deliver on the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target and the inclusive growth agenda. Reaching this objective can only be a result of an integrated and coherent approach towards the economic, employment and social objectives of the Union. 9. As the economy picks up, policies should focus on ensuring that improving the social situation across the Union becomes a shared priority. Structural reforms need to take into account social and employment concerns. Reforms, particularly major ones, should be subject to social impact assessments to minimise adverse social effects. Where reforms entail trade-offs, the cost of reform should be fairly distributed across society and income groups, and those at greater risk of poverty and social exclusion should not bear the brunt of economic adjustment. 10. In the short and medium term, improvements in the social situation should come from more jobs, particularly for young people and from reduced poverty and social exclusion. To achieve this, growth, structural reforms and social investments are needed. Wage and tax policies should allow earnings and in-work benefits to lift people out of poverty and ensure adequate levels of social protection. Investing in children and in young people should be a political priority given the long-term gains stemming from their higher human capital and well-being, labour market participation and productivity. 11. In the long-run, the Union needs to prepare itself to address demographic imbalances that will asymmetrically affect the growth potential of Member States, shifting social risks between generations and along the life-course, and growing inequalities that weaken cohesion and hold back upward mobility and growth. 13 1. Recent developments in the overarching social policy setting at EU level 2014 has seen reinforcement of the monitoring of social developments in the context of a strengthened social dimension of the EU and EMU as called for by the June and October 2013 European Council Conclusions. In 2013 the Council, upon a proposal from the Commission, approved a scoreboard on employment and social indicators to be used in the context of the European semester for policy coordination. The scoreboard is aimed at strengthening the social dimension of the Economic and Monetary Union and consists of 6 indicators presented in a single table allowing for monitoring the employment and social developments in the EU, and taking account of the social and labour market situation within the EMU and EU in political discussions and policy steer coming from the Council. The scoreboard is part of the annual ‗Joint Employment Report‘ prepared by the Commission and adopted by the Council of the European Union. Upon the invitation of the Greek Presidency, the Social Protection Committee, together with the Employment Committee, prepared for EPSCO a joint opinion on the scoreboard2, recognizing it as an important step forward in terms of granting political visibility for employment and social challenges in relevant Member States and aiming to identify the most serious problems and developments at an early stage. Both Committees retained that the scoreboard should be a fully integral part of the Social Protection Performance Monitor and the Employment Performance Monitor. The SPC Indicators Subgroup prepared an ad-hoc report on the operationalisation of the scoreboard from that perspective and reviewed the list of the indicators of the SPPM accordingly. In addition to the scoreboard, the Commission also decided to use a set of social indicators as auxiliary indicators in the scoreboard of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure3. This accumulation of monitoring instruments is expected to enhance the capacity of the EU to better anticipate the social impact of its economic policies. In the second half of the year, the SPC undertook a comprehensive reflection in the context of the mid-term review of the Europe 2020 Strategy, which resulted in a joint opinion with EMCO endorsed by the 2014 EPSCO Council. This recognized the important contribution of the development of the SPPM to the capacity of the SPC to identify the main social trends and communicate them to the Council. It has also reinforced the multilateral surveillance capacity of the Committee, thus supporting EPSCO to bring the relevant social issues to the attention of the European Council. 2 http://ec.europa.eu/social/keyDocuments.jsp?advSearchKey=EMUsocdimension&mode=advancedSubmit&langId=en&p olicyArea=&type=0&country=0&year=0 3 http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/macroeconomic_imbalance_procedure/mip_scoreboard/in dex_en.htm 14 2. The social situation in the European Union 2.1 Macro-economic and labour market context Although the EU has resumed economic growth the recovery which started in the spring of 2013 remains subdued and recent GDP forecasts for the EU have been revised down. Indeed, after just a year of moderate growth, the momentum of the EU economy began to slow in spring 2014 and in the second half of the year turned out to be very modest, while in the euro area it almost stagnated. GDP rose by 0.2% in the euro area (EA18) and by 0.3% in the EU28 during the third quarter of 2014, compared with the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2014, growth rates were +0.1% and +0.2% respectively. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP was up by only 0.8% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2014, but with particularly strong annual growth of over 3% in IE, HU, MT, PL, RO, SI and the UK although with continued contraction in CY, HR and IT. The autumn 2014 European Commission Economic Forecast (European Commission (2014)) projects real GDP growth for 2014 as a whole to have advanced only moderately, at 0.8% and 1.3% respectively in the euro area and the EU. Looking to the year ahead, the forecast revised previous GDP growth for 2015 downwards significantly in both the euro area and the EU, but nevertheless the economy is still expected to gain some further traction with growth rates accelerating to 1.1% and 1.5% respectively in 2015. Despite the weak macroeconomic background, employment has shown a small but consistent growth in the EU since mid-2013, in the large majority of EU Member States, and across the large majority of sectors. Nevertheless, labour market and social conditions remain extremely challenging. The euro area (EA18) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remains high at 11.4% in December 2014, slightly down from the peak of 12.0% recorded for most of 2013, while the EU28 unemployment rate was 9.9% in December, compared with 10.6% one year earlier. The number of (seasonally adjusted) unemployed in the EU28 reached an all-time high of 26.5 million in April 2013, but subsequently has been declining on a consistent basis to fall to around 24.1 million in December 2014. This nevertheless still represents a total increase of 8.0 million since the low of 16.0 million recorded in March 2008. 15 Figure 1: Monthly change in youth and adult unemployment and the total level of unemployment in the EU, January 2007 - December 2014 Source: Eurostat, data seasonally adjusted Many challenges remain in the EU labour market, with important social consequences, in particular long-term unemployment and low employment opportunities for youth (15-24) and young adults aged 25-39. At the same time, poverty and social exclusion have risen over recent years in most Member States, affecting particularly the working age population and, by extension, children. Young people are suffering from high levels of labour market exclusion: nearly a quarter of economically active young people in the EU are unemployed and their prospects remain bleak for at least the year ahead. Although these challenges have recently eased slightly, they remain substantial and need to be tackled urgently. A key feature of the recent crisis has been the growing divergence between countries in terms of the labour market and social impacts, especially within the Euro Area. Across the EU, but particularly within the euro area, Member States have experienced widening gaps in terms of employment, income, poverty, inequalities, youth employment and many other key aspects of the social situation. This divergence is exemplified by the varying extent to which the unemployment rate has evolved across the different Member States, with huge rises between 2008 and 2013 in the southern Member States (PT (up 7.7 pp), CY (12.2 pp), ES (14.8 pp) and EL (19.7pp)) compared to more moderate rises of under 2 pp in AT, BE, FI, LU, MT, RO and SE, and a reduction of 2.2 pp in DE. 16 Figure 2: Unemployment rate developments across EU Member States, 2008, 2012 and 2013 Source: Eurostat (LFS) In terms of more recent trends, compared with a year earlier, the unemployment rate in December 2014 had decreased in almost allthe Member States and rose in only 3 (FI, FR and IT). BG, EE, EL, ES, HU, LT, PL and PT experienced decreases of the order of 2 pp. Despite the recent improvement in in the EU labour market, and the relatively stronger falls in the unemployment rates in many of the southern Member States, the rates in CY, EL, ES and PT (16.4%, 25.8%, 23.7% and 13.4% respectively) remain far above those of the central and northern countries at the end of 2014. In contrast, some of the other Member States hit particularly hard by the crisis, namely the Baltic States (EE, LV and LT) and IE, have seen a very strong recovery in their labour markets over recent years which has led to a substantial fall in unemployment in those countries. The lowest unemployment rates at the end of 2014 were observed in AT, CZ, DE, LU, MT and the UK, all with rates under 6%. Although many factors have influenced the overall economic performance of different Member States in the past years, much of the current divergence results from how labour markets and social systems reacted to the severe global downturn as well as the fiscal consolidation packages implemented in the majority of Member States. The shockwaves from the crisis appear to have been asymmetric but the different institutional setups saw very different resilience to the widely experienced major shock from the initial financial crisis: countries with relatively un-segmented labour markets, solid industrial relations institutions and strong welfare systems have tended to fare better than those with highly segmented labour markets, strained labour relations and weak welfare provisions. 17 More than one in five young people in the labour market are unemployed. The situation of youth in the labour market represents both an economic and a social emergency, with around 5.0 million young persons (15-24 years) unemployed in the EU28 at the end of 2014, of whom 3.3 million were in the euro area. Driven by strong falls in the UK, and to a lesser extent in ES and PL, compared with December 2013 youth unemployment decreased by 464 thousand in the EU28 and by 168,000 in the euro area. Nevertheless, in December 2014, the youth unemployment rate was still a high 21.4% in the EU28 and 23.0% in the euro area, compared with 23.1% and 23.9% respectively in December 2013. The lowest rate was observed in DE (7.2%), but AT and NL also recorded rates under 10%. In contrast, the highest rates were in ES (51.4%) and EL (50.6%), while HR and IT also reported rates in the range 42% to 45%. The proportion of young people (18-24 years) who are neither in employment, education, nor in training (NEET) has increased sharply over recent years but appears to have stabilised at EU level in 2013. The average NEET rate in 2013 was 17.0% (compared to 17.1% for 2012), representing an increase of 3.1 pps on the rate at the start of the crisis in 2008. However, underlying the EU average is wide disparity across Member States in both levels and trends in the NEET rate, with high and generally still increasing rates in the south of the euro area (for example rates continued to rise in CY, EL, ES and IT to reach levels of 27.1%, 28.2%, 24.0% and 29.3% respectively in 2013), whereas in the northern euro area Member States it remains relatively low, and under 10% in DE, DK, LU, NL and SE. Long-term unemployment continues to rise and has reached alarming levels. In 2013, 12.4 million Europeans had been unemployed for more than 12 months, accounting for 5.1% of the economically active population across the EU and 6.0% in the euro area. Since 2008 the number of long-term unemployed has more than doubled in the EU and in the euro area (an increase of 6.2 million and of 4.8 million respectively). The largest increases in the long-term unemployment rate were recorded in Greece (from 3.7% in 2008 to 18.5% in 2013), Spain (from 2% in 2008 to 13% in 2013) and Ireland (from 1.7% to 7.9% (although having reduced over 2013 from 9.1% in 2012)). 18 Figure 3: Long-term unemployment rates in EU28, 2008 and 2013 Source: Eurostat (LFS) Migrants tend to be more affected by unemployment than the general population, as 19.5% of economically active third-country nationals living in the EU were without a job in mid-2014. The gap between the unemployment rates of migrant and native workers already existed before the economic downturn but increased markedly since the crisis hit, although declining somewhat over the first part of 2014. As for intra-EU mobile citizens, they are generally more likely to be in employment than nationals living in the same country (despite the fact that unemployment rates tend to be relatively higher amongst intra-EU mobile citizens). This gap can be partly explained by differences in the age composition between EU mobile citizens and nationals. The overall rate of inactivity among intraEU mobile citizens of working age has declined between 2008 and 2013 – from 23.7% to 22.1%. This happened despite an increase in the rate of unemployment among intra-EU mobile citizens during the economic crisis. 19 Figure 4: Unemployment rate breakdown for native workers, EU27 nationals and third-country workers, 2007-2014 Source: Eurostat (LFS) Another issue relevant to the context for understanding developments in the social situation, especially regarding the target on the reduction of the population in poverty or social exclusion (see the following section), is the change in the size of the overall population since 2008, which has been quite dramatic in certain Member States. For example, the total population in LV and LT has declined by close to 8%, while it has expanded by around 11% in CY and LU (Table 1). Other Member States with sizable increases in the population include IE (3%), MT (3.3%), UK (3.8%), SE (4.1%) and BE (4.6%). For the EU as a whole, the total population increased by 1.3% or 6.7 million, mainly reflecting rises of around 1 million in ES and IT, 1.6 million in FR and 2.3 million in the UK. 20 Table 1: Population change between 2008 and 2013 2008 2013 % change EU28 500,418,320 507,162,571 1.3 EU27 496,106,353 502,900,431 1.4 EA18 330,005,457 334,611,086 1.4 BE 10,666,866 11,161,642 4.6 BG 7,518,002 7,284,552 -3.1 CZ 10,343,422 10,516,125 1.7 DK 5,475,791 5,602,628 2.3 DE 82,217,837 82,020,578 -0.2 EE 1,338,440 1,320,174 -1.4 IE 4,457,765 4,591,087 3.0 EL 11,182,224 11,062,508 -1.1 ES 45,668,939 46,727,890 2.3 FR 64,007,193 65,578,819 2.5 HR 4,311,967 4,262,140 -1.2 IT 58,652,875 59,685,227 1.8 CY 776,333 865,878 11.5 LV 2,191,810 2,023,825 -7.7 LT 3,212,605 2,971,905 -7.5 LU 483,799 537,039 11.0 HU 10,045,401 9,908,798 -1.4 MT 407,832 421,364 3.3 NL 16,405,399 16,779,575 2.3 AT 8,307,989 8,451,860 1.7 PL 38,115,641 38,533,299 1.1 PT 10,553,339 10,487,289 -0.6 RO 20,635,460 20,020,074 -3.0 SI 2,010,269 2,058,821 2.4 SK 5,376,064 5,410,836 0.6 FI 5,300,484 5,426,674 2.4 SE 9,182,927 9,555,893 4.1 UK 61,571,647 63,896,071 3.8 Source: Eurostat, population statistics. Notes: Population figures on 1 January of given year. 21 2.2 Little progress on the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target The commitment made in 2010 by the EU Heads of States and Governments to lift at least 20 million people out of being at risk of poverty or social exclusion, in the context of the Europe 2020 strategy, was a significant step forward. It stressed the equal importance of inclusive growth alongside economic objectives for the future of Europe, and it introduced a new monitoring and accountability scheme4. Within the framework of the Europe 2020 target, Member States set national poverty and social exclusion targets (Table 2), although the individual poverty-reduction ambitions of the Member States sums to a figure much lower than the EU level commitment to reduce poverty and social exclusion by 20 million. 4 COM (2010) 758 final 22 Table 2: Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target - national targets 2014 National 2020 target for the reduction of poverty or social exclusion (in number of persons) EU28 20,000,000 BE 380,000 BG 260,000 (persons living in monetary poverty)* CZ Maintaining the number of persons at risk of poverty or social exclusion at the level of 2008 (15.3% of total population) with efforts reduce it by 30,000 DK 22,000 (persons living in households with low work intensity)* DE 320,000 (long-term unemployed)* EE Reduction of the at risk of poverty rate after social transfers to 15%, equivalent to an absolute decrease by 36,248 persons* IE 200,000 (persons in combined poverty)* EL 450,000 ES 1,400,000-1,500,000 FR 1,900,000 HR Reduction of the number of persons at risk of poverty or social exclusion to 1,220,000, equivalent to a decrease by 152,000 persons compared to 2011 IT 2,200,000 CY 27,000 LT 121,000 (at risk of poverty after social transfers and/or living in households with very low work intensity)* Reducing the number of persons at risk of poverty or social exclusion to 814,000 LU 6,000 HU 450,000 MT 6,560 NL 100,000 (people aged 0-64 living in a jobless household)* AT 235,000 PL 1,500,000 PT 200,000 RO 580,000 SI 40,000 SK 170,000 LV FI SE UK 770,000 persons living at risk of poverty or social exclusion, equivalent to an absolute decrease by 140,000 persons Reduction of the % of women and men aged 20-64 who are not in the labour force (except full-time students), the long-term unemployed or those on long-term sick leave to well under 14%* Existing numerical targets of the 2010 Child Poverty Act and Child Poverty Strategy 2011-2014* Source: National Reform Programmes (2014) Notes: * denotes countries that have expressed their national target in relation to an indicator different than the EU headline target indicator. The EU poverty and social exclusion headline target is based on a combination of three indicators – the at-risk-of-poverty rate, the severe material deprivation rate, and the share of people living in (quasi-)jobless (i.e. very low work intensity) households. It considers people who find themselves in any of these three categories and, while very broad, it reflects the multiple facets of poverty and social exclusion across Europe. This definition extends the customary concept of relative income poverty to cover the non-monetary dimension of poverty and labour market exclusion. 23 The most recent EU SILC figures available (i.e. for 2013) show that there has been a stabilisation in the overall situation at EU level, although there continue to be disparities across Member States and a worsening situation in many. Even though 11 Member States registered statistically significant falls in poverty and social exclusion in 2013, around a 1/3 still saw significant rises. The latest figures on living and income conditions in the EU show that the EU is not making any major progress towards achieving its Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target of lifting at least 20 million people from poverty and social exclusion by 2020. In 2013 there were 4.8 million more people living in poverty or social exclusion in the EU28 compared to 2008 (the reference year, due to data availability, for the target adopted in 2010), a total of 122.6 million people or close to 1 in 4 Europeans. Figure 5: Evolution of the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target 5 (figures in 1000s) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: AROPE – at risk of poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (Quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi)-jobless households (i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households); SMD - severe material deprivation rate. For the at-risk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the (quasi-) jobless households (i.e. very low work intensity) rate refers to the previous calendar year (i.e. 2012) while for the severe material deprivation rate, the reference is the current survey year (i.e. 2013). 5 Based on data for EU27 24 The overall trend masks growing divergence between Member States. Increases between 20082013 have been observed mainly in the countries most affected by the economic crisis (EL, IT, CY,, but also IE and ES using data for the period 2008-2012), have persisted in a number of Eastern European countries which have some of the biggest challenges related to poverty and social exclusion (BG, HU) but have started becoming a significant trend also in countries such as MT and also in countries with some of the lowest shares of AROPE and solid welfare systems like DK and LU. AROPE has remained more or less stable compared to 2008 in BE, CZ, DE, EE, FR, LV LT, NL, PT and SK, while it has decreased in only four countries in the whole EU – AT, FI, PL and RO (Figure 6). In contrast to the generally worsening trend in the years since the crisis hit, many Member States have registered significant improvements between 2012 and 2013, including some (BG, IT, LT, LV) with strong prior increases relative to 2008. Figure 6: At risk of poverty or social exclusion rate (in %), evolution (in pp) 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 24.5 24.4 23.0 20.8 48.0 14.6 18.9 20.3 23.5 30.0 35.7 27.3 18.1 29.9 28.4 ~ ~ ~ -0.8 -1.3 -0.8 ~ 0.7 ~ n.a. 1.1 n.a. -1.0 -2.7 -1.5 3.2 n.a. 0.6 1.3 3.1 AT RO SI SK ~ FI n.a. MT ~ PT 3.7 LU ~ PL 7.6 LT ~ NL 6.3 LV ~ HU 2.6 CY SE UK 27.8 35.1 30.8 19.0 33.5 24.0 15.9 18.8 25.8 27.4 40.4 20.4 19.8 16.0 16.4 24.8 ~ -1.1 -1.7 ~ ~ 0.9 0.9 ~ -0.9 2.1 -1.3 0.8 ~ -1.2 0.8 0.7 4.5 ~ ~ 3.5 5.3 3.9 ~ -1.8 -4.7 ~ -3.8 1.9 ~ -1.4 1.5 1.6 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes), using Eurostat computations of significance of net change. "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). v) For the at-risk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the (quasi-)jobless households (i.e. very low work intensity) rate refers to the previous calendar year (i.e. 2012) while for the severe material deprivation rate, the reference is the current year (i.e. 2013). The major part of the population at risk of poverty or social exclusion (between 59% in SE and 72% in DK) is composed of working age individuals (18-64). Children (0-17) comprise around a fifth in the EU as a whole, but around a quarter in FR and the UK and close to one third in IE and LU. For the elderly (65+) they account for 13 % at EU level, but for around 20% in EE, LV, LT, HR, SI, FI and SE, and as much as 23% in BG. 25 Figure 7: Distribution of the population at risk of poverty or social exclusion across age groups, 2013 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012. Substantial and focused policy efforts need to become a political priority so that the EU poverty and social exclusion target remains a credible political commitment. Since current (2013) levels of poverty and social exclusion are 4.8 million people higher than in 2008, and assuming no further negative developments, almost 25 million people now need to be lifted out of poverty or social exclusion by 2020 in order to still achieve the target. 2.3 What are the drivers behind increased poverty and social exclusion at EU level? Table 3 looks at the change in the risk of poverty or social exclusion for the period 2008-2013 for different population characteristics and specific risk groups across Member States. The main stylized facts that emerge are: i) the countries with the largest increase in the population at risk of poverty or social exclusion are EL, ES, IE, HU, CY, MT, LU, BG, LT and IT; 26 ii) when taking into account the population size, the countries contributing substantially to the increase in the AROPE rate at the EU level are IT, ES (referring to the change 2008 to 2012) and to a lesser extent EL, HU and the UK; iii) relative poverty rates have remained fairly stable or with changes of up to 2pp in the period 2008-2013 for most Member States (with the exception of EL (3pp) and HR, LU, SE and SI (all with rises of around 2-2.5 pp); iv) severe material deprivation has seen some more substantial increases of around 5pp or more in several countries – EL (9.1 pp), HU (8.9 pp), CY (7.0 pp), MT (5.2 pp), IT (4.9 pp) and LV (4.7 pp); v) labour market exclusion as reflected in the share of (quasi-)jobless households has increased substantially in the countries hardest hit by the crisis – EL, ES, IE, LV, LT and PT, but also in BG; vi) youth have generally seen the most important deterioration in their income and living conditions, but also those of prime working age (25-54) and in some Member States also children have experienced substantial declines, while the elderly have fared better across the board, highlighting the important role of pension systems; vii) there is wide variation in the extent to which countries have managed to protect households with dependent children at risk (single parents, large families). Among those Member States with the largest rises in the AROPE rate, nearly all (with the exception of ES, LU and LT) have seen the most important increases in the AROPE for large families, this being especially the case in BG, EL, HU, IE and MT (all with rises of over 8 pp). In some cases (LU, LT but also DK, EE, FR, LV and SE), it is single parent households that have clearly suffered the largest increases compared to other household types. 27 Table 3: Evolution of the at risk of poverty or social exclusion rate (2008-2013) across relevant population characteristics and risk groups, in percentage points and % for the at-risk-of-poverty threshold AROPE …by gender AROPE components AROPE AROP AROP Threshold SMD …by age group …by activity status (quasi-) jobless HHs (VLWI) male female 0-17 18-24 25-54 55-64 …by Household type 65+ employed unemployed inactive (excl. retired) single person HH w/out single parent dependent HH children Share Large families % share in the EU28 AROPE PL -4.7 ~ 35.3 -5.8 ~ -4.4 -5.0 -3.1 -3.6 -3.8 -8.0 -7.2 -4.2 -3.0 -5.7 -6.1 -6.3 -4.9 ~ 7.9 RO -3.8 -1.0 21.7 -4.4 -1.9 -3.6 -4.0 -2.7 2.6 -1.2 -6.0 -14.2 -2.3 4.0 2.7 -9.1 -8.3 -12.7 -2.2 7.0 AT -1.8 ~ 10.5 -1.7 ~ -1.5 -2.2 ~ ~ -5.7 -5.0 -1.7 -2.8 ~ -2.8 -2.7 ~ -3.7 1.3 FI -1.4 -1.8 15.5 -1.0 1.5 -2.7 -2.1 -2.0 ~ -7.1 -1.8 -3.3 4.2 -1.9 -1.1 -6.6 -1.5 0.7 SK 1.9 41.5 -1.6 2.4 -1.8 1.2 1.4 1.1 -4.5 -8.3 -1.9 -1.5 3.2 -10.0 -2.8 4.0 -2.6 0.9 ~ 9.5 -1.1 -2.2 1.1 ~ ~ -2.1 7.6 -4.1 ~ -19.1 -3.5 1.2 10.8 ~ -2.6 -3.7 -3.5 4.7 -1.1 -1.5 3.6 ~ 9.2 18.1 2.3 1.3 -1.2 2.7 -6.4 -3.4 11.9 4.1 ~ 3.7 1.9 -1.8 ~ ~ 1.5 6.6 3.3 1.1 -4.6 -1.1 13.2 0.6 n.a. 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.0 3.4 2.7 ~ ~ ~ EU27 -5.2 ~ 2.2 1.9 -1.2 ~ ~ 99.0 LV -6.5 -7.4 4.7 4.6 2.8 6.0 11.3 6.6 -1.3 -22.7 3.1 11.9 6.5 -16.3 -6.6 10.8 7.6 0.6 NL ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 4.0 7.6 ~ ~ ~ 1.3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -3.6 1.2 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ DE ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.0 1.1 ~ 1.4 1.5 2.5 2.1 1.8 -3.6 ~ -2.6 9.0 3.8 -3.6 4.1 2.2 EA18 1.3 n.a. 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.2 3.8 3.4 ~ -3.9 1.0 3.0 1.5 ~ ~ ~ 61.6 2.3 CZ FR BE PT 1.4 ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.2 5.9 2.4 ~ ~ 2.1 5.6 4.2 2.1 -7.4 -1.4 8.1 4.9 -8.3 ~ ~ ~ -4.6 13.3 SE 1.5 2.6 15.3 ~ 1.6 1.2 1.8 1.6 2.9 1.2 ~ 1.0 ~ -1.6 10.1 5.7 1.8 5.1 1.5 1.3 UK 1.6 -2.8 -11.2 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.1 3.0 6.5 4.0 3.8 -10.4 1.4 -4.5 3.5 ~ -1.9 -1.5 -1.7 12.7 EE 1.7 ~ 13.0 2.7 3.1 3.6 ~ 2.9 9.3 4.1 5.0 -12.9 2.4 -3.6 4.9 -11.6 ~ 2.6 ~ 0.3 SI 1.9 2.2 ~ ~ 1.3 2.8 1.1 2.2 3.3 2.6 ~ -1.4 1.4 11.2 -5.8 -6.2 1.1 -6.6 5.5 0.3 DK 2.6 8.7 1.8 4.4 3.0 2.2 2.8 10.5 4.2 2.1 -7.2 ~ ~ 3.4 2.9 1.8 8.2 3.3 0.9 IT 3.1 ~ 4.9 1.2 4.0 2.4 2.8 6.3 5.5 2.1 -1.8 4.3 8.9 ~ ~ 2.9 1.4 3.3 14.1 5.8 3.7 5.9 3.0 3.3 6.0 1.9 5.6 3.1 -6.4 1.8 13.7 -3.6 -9.2 1.1 1.8 -5.3 0.7 27.1 1.8 4.9 3.5 3.0 7.3 8.8 5.9 -1.3 -7.9 4.2 2.9 8.2 -12.9 -1.8 6.7 8.5 2.8 LT 3.2 BG 3.2 ~ ~ ~ ~ LU 3.5 2.5 ~ 1.1 1.9 4.4 2.7 5.1 4.9 2.8 3.2 1.6 2.1 12.2 5.8 3.5 1.9 4.7 ~ 0.1 ES 3.7 1.4 -9.1 2.2 7.7 5.0 2.4 3.2 9.4 8.7 2.1 -11.1 1.7 11.0 -1.5 -6.5 2.0 1.3 -6.9 10.3 MT 3.9 5.2 ~ 4.4 3.4 7.0 10.2 5.8 ~ -5.2 4.5 16.9 4.9 -3.0 ~ -9.5 8.5 0.1 4.5 ~ ~ 17.1 CY ~ 7.0 3.4 6.3 2.9 6.2 11.9 10.6 1.2 -23.2 6.7 21.5 6.6 -3.2 -1.1 -5.6 2.8 0.2 HU 5.3 1.9 13.9 8.9 ~ 5.8 4.9 9.6 4.7 6.5 2.5 1.5 6.0 6.6 7.2 ~ 2.7 4.6 9.1 2.7 IE 6.3 ~ -10.9 4.3 9.7 7.0 5.7 6.5 20.7 9.0 1.4 -7.8 1.7 8.0 -2.8 -5.8 5.7 ~ 8.7 0.9 EL 7.6 3.0 -24.5 9.1 10.7 8.3 7.0 9.4 16.7 11.3 8.3 -5.0 1.5 10.0 10.4 -1.1 4.9 3.0 10.6 3.2 EU28 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 100.0 HR n.a. 2.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.0 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC); Sorted by the size of the AROPE change between 2008 and 2013. Notes: i) "" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change) with a 1pp threshold level used, or for AROPE using Eurostat computations of significance of net change (note figures for changes in AROPE in EE, PT, LT are shown but are not significant using Eurostat estimates); ii) no 2013 data for IE, so reference is made to the period 2008-2012; iii) For 2013 EU-SILC data ES registered a major break in series for the income variables. As a result, income related indicators are not comparable to 2008 for this country and the changes in the AROPE and its components are therefore, for consistency, all presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iv) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) the AROP threshold refers to a single person household and is calculated as the percentage change of the threshold expressed in pps. 28 Looking at the country-specific situation, we can note that in EL, which has registered the largest (7.6pp) deterioration in the AROPE rate for the period 2008-2013, the main drivers behind this are the increases in the severe material deprivation rate and the share of (quasi-) jobless households. Youth (18-24) and workers of prime working age (25-54) have seen their income and living conditions deteriorate more than children and older workers, while the income situation of the elderly has improved relative to the rest of the population. While the share of working poor has increased only slightly, the AROPE rate for people outside of the labour market (unemployed or inactive) has increased above 10pp. Single parents and especially large families have also seen their situation deteriorate substantially, with the share of large families at risk of poverty or social exclusion increasing by more than 10 percentage points. In IE, which has the second highest increase in AROPE (based on the change between 2008 and 2012, amounting to 6.3pp), the main driver has been the share of (quasi-) jobless households (up 9.7 pp). With regard to age groups the pattern is similar to that for EL, with youth and workers of prime working age faring the worst while the relative situation of the elderly has improved. The AROPE rate for the unemployed has risen by 8 pp while for the inactive it has decreased by 2.8 pp. While large families have seen a substantial rise in their AROPE rate, single parents have been relatively less affected. For HU, the worsening level of severe material deprivation is behind its AROPE increase of 5.3 pp. In terms of age groups, the strongest increase in the AROPE rate has been for children, and in line with this single parent households and large families have seen the most important rises among the various household types. With regard to activity status, the rises for employed, unemployed and inactive have been broadly similar. At the other end of the spectrum, only four countries have registered a decrease in their AROPE rates in excess of 1 pp for the period 2008-2013, namely AT, FI, PL and RO. In all cases a main driver behind this change has been the improvement in the severe material deprivation rate. The AROPE has decreased for all age groups in PL, while this has also been the case in RO apart from for the youth age group. In AT and FI the improvement has mainly been for the elderly or older workers. In PL and RO, substantial improvements were observed across all households types except for large families, while in FI the strongest improvement was for single parent households. All this clearly shows that behind the changes in the AROPE rates lie very different dynamics in terms of what is driving the change. Some countries show quite similar patterns in terms of the type of individuals most affected but a number of Member States have very heterogeneous profiles. This is due not only to the way the economic crisis has affected countries and their population but also to the structural challenges they face and the policy mix they have implemented. In order to examine developments further, some Member States have developed complementary approaches to monitoring social developments during the crisis, going beyond the common indicators generally used in social monitoring (as in the SPPM). These complementary approaches 29 can provide useful additional information on what is happening to the social situation in countries, and are summarised in Box 1 for certain Member States (BE, IE and IT). Box 1. Social monitoring in times of crisis – the approaches of Belgium, Ireland and Italy Belgium: Simultaneously picturing the level and the evolution of the at-risk-of-poverty rate and threshold during the Great Recession Since the start of the Great Recession, median income and thus the at-risk-of-poverty threshold (60% of median income) has gone down at one time or another in nearly all the EU Member States. This has raised questions regarding the interpretation of the results of the at-risk-of-poverty indicator, especially in cases where a drop in the at-risk-of-poverty rate (positive) coincided with a drop in median income and thus in the at-risk-of-poverty threshold (negative). Some people whose income hadn‘t changed were no longer considered to be at risk of poverty simply because of the drop in the threshold. In considering this, it is important to remember that the at-risk-of-poverty rate is actually the relative income poverty rate where the threshold is equal to 60% of median income. The indicator is consistent with the early official definition of poverty by the EU Council of Ministers (1975), which defines people as poor in relation to the standard of living in the Member State in which they live. It captures the relative, and not the absolute dimension of poverty. Looking at developments over time, the question the relative income poverty indicator tries to answer remains as relevant as ever: ‗Does an increase in the average standard of living brought about by economic growth also benefit the lower end of the income distribution?‘ Or conversely - in case the average standard of living goes down – ‗Does the living standard of people at the lower end of the income distribution (proportionally or more than proportionally) go down with it or are these people to some extent protected from the decline in the average standard of living?‘ Even if it makes sense to look at the development of the at-risk-of-poverty rate in isolation, it is clear that analysing it in combination with the threshold can lead to a better understanding of what is happening to income poverty in the EU. Therefore, adding a scatterplot that combines the rate and the threshold will reinforce the monitoring framework. The at-risk-of-poverty rate and threshold are contained in the Social Protection Performance Monitor that is at the core of this report as two separate indicators (see Figure 10), meaning that there is an agreed normative interpretation of the change in both indicators (hence the colour coding of statistically significant developments: green = positive, red = negative). This implies that Member States should try to bring down the at-risk-of poverty rate, while increasing the average standard of living, i.e. driving up median income, and thus the at-risk-of-poverty threshold. It is important to note that in the SPPM the threshold is expressed in purchasing power parities. Purchasing power parities (PPPs) are used as currency conversion rates to convert income or expenditures expressed in national currencies into an artificial common currency (the Purchasing Power Standard, PPS), thus eliminating the effect of price level differences across countries. Since the Monitor refers to the threshold in PPS (and not in national currency) developments of the threshold in an EU comparative perspective are measured. 30 In the scatterplot below, which is strictly limited to SPPM data and is based on EU-SILC 2013 figures6, EU Member States are compared according to their at-risk-of-poverty rate (X-axis) and their at-risk-of-poverty threshold for a single person (Y-axis). The challenge is to move to the top left corner of the graph (increase the threshold and reduce the rate). The chart allows us to visually compare not only the at-risk-of-poverty rates but also the at-risk of poverty thresholds across countries. It is clear that countries with similar rates often have very different median income levels. Figure 8: The at-risk-of poverty rate and associated poverty threshold in 2013 (*) SILC 2012 data have been used for Ireland because of the unavailability of SILC 2013 data and for Spain because of the break in the times series in 2013 and the need for consistency with Figure 11. Clustering and colour coding of countries is based on the groupings proposed by the Commission in the ESDE 2013 report (page 337): Southern Europe: red; Western Europe: green; Central Europe: purple; Eastern Europe: yellow; Northern Europe: blue; North-Western Europe: grey. It is possible to further develop the analysis by introducing the time dimension in the graph. This has been done in Figure 11 of this report. The graph shows the combined evolution in the at-riskof-poverty rate and the associated at-risk-of-poverty threshold over the period 2008-2013. The arrows depict how Member States have moved on the two indicators over the full period since the start of the crisis. Arrows pointing to the top left corner (in green) point to progress on both indicators, while arrows pointing to the bottom right corner (in red) point to a negative 6 SILC 2012 data have been used for Ireland because of the unavailability of SILC 2013 data and for Spain because of the break in the times series in 2013 and the need for consistency with Figure 11. 31 development on both indicators. This visual representation can contribute to a better understanding of the development of the risk-of-poverty at Member State level. It will also help in assessing the situation at the level of the EU, e.g. by showing whether trends are converging or diverging between the Member States. Similar graphs can be produced to cover the pre-crisis period 2005-2008 or the full period for which EU-SILC data are available: 2005-2013. Of course, in showing/interpreting the graphs, any breaks in the time series need to be taken into account and one should be aware that the threshold is shown in PPS. Furthermore, there is no indication of the statistical significance of the changes. Ireland: Economic Stress and the Great Recession in Ireland: Polarization, Individualization or ‘Middle Class Squeeze’? Bertrand Maître7, Helen Russell5 and Christopher T. Whelan8 Following an unprecedented boom, since 2008 Ireland has experienced a severe economic and labour market crisis. Considerable debate persists as to where the heaviest burden of the recession has fallen, but conventional measures of income poverty and inequality have a limited capacity to capture the impact of the recession. The economic crisis has had a detrimental effect on the livelihoods of many Irish households. While rising unemployment and poverty are visible signs of the recession‘s impact, it is likely that the effects of such an extensive decline in GDP and severe cuts in public expenditure have spread considerably further than those who have directly experienced job losses and income poverty. Increases in taxation, declining wages and hours of work, and reductions in state transfers have impacted across the social and income distribution, while indebtedness and mortgage arrears have spiralled among groups who were previously well protected from financial difficulties. The scale of these effects has led to questions as to the class and life-course distribution of the cost of the recession and the extent to which the burden has been disproportionately borne by specific social groups. 9 Purely income-based poverty measures have failed to pick up the rising hardship because the general decline in income levels led to the poverty threshold falling in value. Here instead the focus has been on a subjective measure of economic stress while controlling for level of material deprivation and welfare dependency. The analysis suggests that changes in economic stress levels between the boom and bust periods for income class groups are largely accounted for by trends in objective circumstances and their changing impact. It is clear from the findings that economic stress was strongly influenced by income class and social class stratification for both of the time periods considered. There is no evidence that the increasing influence of life-course factors led to a diminution in the impact of either income class or social 7 Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin 8 School of Sociology, Social Policy and Social Work, Queen‘s University Belfast & Geary Institute & School of Sociology, University College Dublin 9 Use is made of both a measure of social class as developed by Goldthorpe (2006) as well as a measure based on household income classification as used by Atkinson and Brandolini (2013). 32 class. Instead a pattern of interaction is observed that shows the impact of each factor to be highly contingent on the situation in relation to the other. The pattern of change over time cannot be accurately described as involving either individualization or polarization. The recession resulted in raised stress level for all income classes and social classes. The affluent class remained largely insulated from the experience of economic stress, however, it saw its advantage relative to the income poor class decline at the earliest stage 10 of the life-course and remain stable across the rest of the life course. At the other end of the hierarchy, the income poor class experienced a relative improvement in their stress situation in the earlier life course phase and no significant change at the later stages. For the remaining income classes, life-course stage was even more important. At the earliest stage the precarious class experiences some improvement in its situation while the outcomes for the middle classes remain unchanged. In the mid-life course the precarious and lower middle classes experience disproportionate increase in their stress levels while at the later life-cycle stage it is the combined middle classes that lose out. Additional effects over time relating to social class are restricted to deteriorating situation of the petit bourgeoisie at the middle stage of the life-course. The analysis has provided clear evidence of the substantial impact of both class and life course effects or as they have been described in the social investment literature – ‗old‘ and ‗new‘ risks. However, rather than ‗old‘ class related risks being displaced by ‗new‘ life course risks, instead a complex pattern of interaction is observed in which income and class effects are conditional on phase of the life-course and vice versa. Understanding the changing role of class and life course factors is greatly facilitated by moving beyond a focus on income in order to develop a multidimensional perspective that encompasses material deprivation and economic stress. Since 2011 there have been significant further cuts in public sector pay, and tax changes such as the introduction of a property tax and additional cuts in public sector pay introduced in 2013. These are not captured in the current analysis and may affect subsequent patterns of economic stress. The analyses also stops well before the labour market recovery observed in 2013. It is likely that in an upturn, middle class groups will benefit disproportionately from increased employment and a rise in property values. Nevertheless, dealing with the potential political pressures arising from the unprecedented levels of economic stress for the precarious and lower middle income classes and the petit- bourgeoisie while sustaining the social welfare arrangements that have in significant part protected the income poor class, presents formidable challenges in terms of maintaining social cohesion and political legitimacy as exemplified by the scale of the recent opposition to the introduction of water charges. References: Atkinson, A. and Brandolini (2013). ‗On the Identification of the Middle Class‘ in J. C. Gornik and M. Jäntti (eds), Economic Disparities in the Middle Class in Affluent Countries, Stanford: Stanford University Press Goldthorpe, J. H. (2006), ‗Social Class and Differentiation of Employment Contracts‘, in J.H. Goldthorpe, On Sociology Volume II Second Edition: Illustration and Retrospect Stanford: Stanford University Press 10 The affluent class is the group of individuals with an equivalised household income greater or equal to 167% of the median equivalised household income. The precarious income group has an equivalised household income between 60% and 74% of the median equivalised household income (see Maître, Russell and Whelan, 2014 for more details) 33 Maitre, B, Russell, H & Whelan, C (2014), Trends in Economic Stress and the Great Recession in Ireland: An Analysis of the CSO Survey in Income and Living Conditions (SILC). Department of Social Protection, Dublin. http://www.socialinclusion.ie/documents/2014-04-24_TechnicalPaperOnEconomicStress_pap_FINAL.pdf Italy: Social monitoring in time of crisis: the Italian absolute measure of poverty The Italian National Institute of Statistics disseminates yearly a measure of absolute poverty based on a basket of goods and services considered as essential for a household to avoid the extreme condition of social exclusion (basic needs). It is made up of a food and drink component and a housing component. However, such components do not completely define individual and household needs, as health, education, transport and clothing expenses are excluded. For these needs a lump-sum was defined (residual component). The total of the three components (in particular their monetary definition) is a standard reference consumption expenditure for an Italian household that guarantees an adequate nourishment, a decent dwelling and the fulfilment of other main needs and to avoid any kind of social exclusion. The assumption underlining the basket is that the basic needs are homogenous all over the Country but their costs differ. Therefore the basket monetary value - and the absolute poverty threshold- vary by geographical area and residence municipality size. The poverty thresholds are calculated for each single household type, depending on the number and age of its members. Finally, the basket monetary value is updated taking into account the individual good and service price dynamics by geographical area. The food component was based on the individual calories needed to carry out usual daily activity; assumed as invariable over time and independent from the preferences of single individuals for various foods or drinks. A nutritional model defined by the Italian National Nutritional Institute was used proposing daily individual diets on the basis of sex and age of individuals. The monetary evaluation of the food basket was made on the basis of the lowest consumer prices available for each household in Italy. Using the elementary prices collected by Istat, for each single good a weighted average of the prices charged in three different distribution canals (hard discount, modern and traditional distribution) is obtained for each geographical area. At this stage, the food and drink component value is computed without taking into account the effect of possible saving actions, since it is calculated only on the basis of the individual caloric need. Larger/smaller households can save/not save money on purchasing bigger quantities of food or on being obliged to buy the minimum packaging. Even if these do not represent real economies of scale, they have to be considered on evaluating the minimum amount of money needed by the single household to buy the defined basket. As regards the housing component a distinction is made between two aspects: i) the availability of the dwelling; ii) the facilities it must be equipped with. According to the availability, expenditure on rents was used adopting the national regulation (Decreto Ministeriale 5 July 1975) that associates specific household sizes to minimum adequate surface classes houses. 34 Among housing expenditures, electric power and heating were considered. For the electric power the monetary evaluation (at current prices) was made under the hypothesis of minimum consumption, obtained using the estimation provided by the ―Autorità per l‘energia elettrica e il gas‖ by household size and electrical durable goods availability. TV, refrigerator and washing machine are the electrical durable goods included in the basket as basic needs. Also the availability of a non- electric cooker is included because it is widely owned even by households with strong economic constraints. For these goods the monthly depreciation quotas were taken into account, calculated for each good on the basis of the average duration (estimated by the insurances) and of the relative consumer prices. As the residual expenditures strongly depend on individual characteristics and less on scale economies in respect to housing expenditure, it has been hypothesized that this component depends on the household typology and it has been obtained as a percentage of the food basket expenditure. The total basket value was calculated summing up the different components for each household and it differs by i) household size, ii) household age composition, iii) size of the residence municipality and iv) geographical area. In this way many thresholds of absolute poverty have been defined, as combinations of household type, geographical distribution and size of the municipality of residence. To inflate or deflate the poverty threshold over time, the consumer price analytical indexes (the specific index for each good and service in the basket) for the whole community have been used. Under the hypothesis that the prices dynamics can geographically differ, the deflation/inflation has been done by geographical area. During the crisis years, in Italy, the incidence of absolute poverty began to show signs of growth since 2011, continuing in 2012 and 2013 against an increase of severe deprivation and of the indicator of the risk of poverty or social exclusion (EU2020) observed in 2011 and 2012, but not in 2013. The risk of poverty increased in 2011 (2010 income), but was stable in 2012 (2011 income), given a poverty line in 2012 with income lower than that obtained in 2011 and 2010 and slightly higher than those calculated for 2009 and 2008 income. The latter indicators capture different aspects of the condition of households, more linked to inequality (such as the risk of poverty measure) rather than conjunctural trends and price dynamics. The absolute poverty indicator represents an additional instrument that can be used with other indicators, also available at the European level, to give a more complete picture of the households‘ economic conditions, to enrich the flow of information and "correct" possible interpretation distortions of each approach. Moreover, it focuses on the poorest among the poor, giving key elements to properly orient policies against poverty. 35 2.4 Developments in the relative poverty risk Looking at the evolution in the relative poverty rate over the past 8 years, we can see that the EU27 rate has been quite stable and only started to increase noticeably after 2010, although 2013 saw it fall again to the same level as in 2008. Behind the movements in the average, there are two underlying trends worth highlighting – while the overall trend for the average poverty rate of new Member States was downward until 2010, with only a slight increase in 2011 before the downward trend continued, the Euro area poverty rate registered a rather consistent increase through to 2012, before showing a fall in 2013 (Figure 9). Figure 9: At-risk-of-poverty rate (EU27, EA17, NMS12), 2005-2013 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) 8 Member States experienced increasing at-risk-of-poverty rates between 2012 and 2013, the most notable rises being observed in EE, LT and SI. In around half of the Member States, the poverty rate has remained stable in the most recent period, with some improvements for a few countries – BE, CZ, FI and FR. In the longer term, however, 9 Member States had substantially worse relative poverty rates compared to the start of the crisis in 2008, with the highest increases in EL (3.0 pp), HR (2.2 pp), LU (2.5 pp), SI (2.2 pp) and SE (2.6 pp). However, the changes in the at-risk-of-poverty rate must be assessed in parallel with the underlying developments in the poverty threshold. In this regard, for 2/3 of Member States there was no significant change in the threshold between 2012 and 2013, while for some 6 Member States there was a substantial increase. However, of particular note is the 10% decline in the poverty threshold in EL, which raises concern even though the at-risk-of-poverty rate remained stable. 36 Figure 10: Evolution (in pp) of the at-risk-of-poverty rate and the associated at-risk-of-poverty threshold (in %, in Purchasing Power Standard (PPS)), 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 AROP 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 16.7 16.6 16.7 15.1 21.0 8.6 12.3 16.1 18.6 15.7 23.1 20.4 13.7 19.5 19.1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.1 n.a. ~ ~ n.a. -0.2 ~ -1.0 n.a. -0.4 3.0 1.4 1.2 2.2 SI SK FI SE ~ UK 14.8 15.9 ~ CY LV ~ LT ~ LU ~ HU ~ MT ~ NL ~ AT ~ PL ~ PT ~ RO 15.3 14.4 17.3 18.7 22.4 14.5 12.8 11.8 ~ 1.0 ~ -1.4 ~ ~ -1.0 2.2 1.9 -1.8 2.6 -2.8 19.4 20.6 15.9 14.3 15.7 10.4 0.6 ~ 2.0 0.8 ~ 0.6 0.3 ~ ~ 0.8 ~ -6.5 ~ 2.5 1.9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT n.a. n.a. n.a. 11,865 3,633 6,389 11,481 11,622 5,130 9,713 5,452 8,543 11,631 4,355 9,205 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.9 ~ ~ ~ ~ 8.4 n.a. -9.7 n.a. ~ ~ ~ n.a. n.a. n.a. 18.1 27.1 9.5 8.7 7.6 13.0 -10.9 -24.5 -9.1 10.8 CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI ~ SE ~ UK 10,896 3,971 4,411 16,360 4,507 9,321 11,536 12,555 5,463 5,705 2,237 8,571 5,741 11,470 12,316 9,882 ~ 6.9 9.3 ~ ~ 6.4 ~ ~ 5.4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -7.4 5.8 13.9 17.1 10.5 35.3 41.5 15.5 15.3 -11.2 AROP Threshold (in PPS) 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp ~ ~ ~ ~ 21.7 ~ Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes). For the change 2012-2013, Eurostat computations of significance of net change. For the change 2008-2013, a 1pp threshold has been used. "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). v) For the at-risk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Focusing on the longer term changes since 2008 (Figure 11), again highlights the especially worrying developments in EL where a significant rise in the risk of poverty is combined with a substantial fall in the poverty threshold of close to 25%. In addition, based on the change between 2008 and 2012, IE has not seen a significant rise in the risk of poverty, but this is nevertheless associated with a fall of around 11% in the actual poverty threshold, while in ES a significant increase in the poverty rate occurs simultaneously with a fall of around 9% in the threshold. Some Member States have experienced a combined significant rise in both the poverty risk and the threshold (most notably SE and SK), and some a significant fall in the poverty risk combined with a rise in the threshold (most notably FI). Finally, a few countries have seen a fall in the poverty risk together with a drop (in PPS terms) in the poverty threshold. 37 Figure 11: Combined evolution in the at-risk-of-poverty rate (in %) and the associated at-risk-of-poverty threshold (in PPS), 2008-2013 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only;; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) The income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Line colours reflect the combined movement of the threshold and AROP rate: Green = threshold up and rate down, purple = both threshold and rate up, orange = threshold down and rate down, red = threshold down and rate up) v) In this chart all changes are shown without regard to the statistical significance of the change. As the above results highlight, in periods of sudden changes in the median income of the population, as has been the case in a number of Member States during the economic crisis, the poverty threshold can move quite substantially and impact on the real implication of evolutions of the poverty rate. A useful way to account for this is to keep the poverty threshold fixed in real terms over a longer period of time, therefore controlling for the effects of a moving poverty threshold, and reflect the evolution of the real income of the poor and the effectiveness of social inclusion policies. In the current context this method reflects better the deterioration of the real income of the poor and the lack of effectiveness of social inclusion policies. 38 Figure 12 shows the evolution of the at-risk-of-poverty rates anchored in 2008 poverty threshold levels. Results suggest that between 2012 and 2013 the largest increases were observed in EL (8.5 pp), CY (5.7 pp), HU (3.2 pp), PT (2.9 pp) and SI (2.7 pp) while the three Baltic States reported the largest decreases (EE (-3.2 pp), LV (-2.0 pp) and LT (-1.7 pp)). Looking at the longer timeframe 2008-2013, and with reference to the beginning of the crisis and keeping the poverty threshold at the 2008 value, EL has clearly seen the largest increase in its anchored poverty rate (24.2 pp), followed by CY (7.4 pp), LV (7.1 pp), IT (6.3 pp), LU (5.9 pp) and LT (5.7pp), while the rate in IE increased by 9.8 pp between 2008 and 2012. The biggest improvements were observed in PL and SK, with a decrease of 4.9 pp and 3.5 pp, respectively, while BG, FI and RO also saw declines of the order of 3 pp. In absolute terms, 18.3 % of the population in the EU-28 in 2013 were at-risk-of-poverty anchored at 2008 poverty threshold levels, which is 1.6 pp higher than the ordinary rate of 16.7 %. Similarly for the Euro Area the rate is slightly higher at 19.0 % versus 16.7 % for the normal at-risk-ofpoverty rate. Figure 12: At-risk-of-poverty rate anchored in 2008 for 2008, 2012 and 2013 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Sorted on the anchored-AROP for 2013; ii) break in series in 2013 for ES iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) no 2013 data available for IE; v) for the at-risk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). 39 Another issue of concern is the rise in the share of the population suffering persistent poverty. In 2012, the persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate11 in the EU27 was 10.2%, up from 8.6% in 2008. Given the relatively small sample sizes currently available for this indicator it is not possible to identify many statistically significant trends at Member State level in its evolution. However, significant rises in the persistent poverty rate for the latest year of data available can be seen in AT (3.0pp), EL (3.3pp) and LT (4.8pp) Significant longer term developments are also apparent in AT and DE (both up 3.2pp), while there has been a significant reduction in EE (down 4.3pp). Box 2. The persistent poverty risk indicator The ―at persistent risk of poverty rate‖ is an important indicator as it is the only EU social indicator looking at persistence. However, the small sample size on which it is based, which is due to the design of the EU-SILC instrument, leads to relatively large confidence intervals (of plus or minus 2 percentage points in most countries). The European Statistical System (ESS, consisting of Eurostat and the Member States‘ National Statistical Institutes) are working on improving the reliability of the indicator. In this regard, the ESS is exploring the possibility of modifying the longitudinal component of EU-SILC by moving from a 4-year to a 6-year rotational panel. A 6-year panel would more than double the existing sample size used for calculation of the persistent poverty risk indicator, thereby improving is reliability significantly. It would also allow better analaysing transitions, providing greater opportunities for developing additional longitudinal indicators. 11 The indicator shows the percentage of the population whose equivalised disposable income was below the ‗at-risk-ofpoverty threshold‘ for the current year and at least 2 out of the preceding 3 years 40 Figure 13: Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate, evolution in pp, 2011-2012 and 2008-12 2013* 2012-2013* change in pp 2008-2013* change in pp 2013* 2012-2013* change in pp 2008-2013* change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.9 12.9 4.1 5.1 10.4 9.3 : 13.8 11.6 7.0 : 13.1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n.a. 3.3 ~ n.a. n.a. ~ ~ ~ 0.9 n.a. ~ ~ 3.2 -4.3 n.a. ~ ~ n.a. n.a. n.a. ~ CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 8.3 12.6 12.3 7.1 8.0 8.5 5.8 8.8 10.7 11.4 18.2 7.5 8.6 7.0 : 8.6 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n.a. ~ ~ ~ 4.8 ~ 3.0 3.2 n.a. n.a. ~ n.a. Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) *Most figures are for the year 2012 (and hence most longer term changes refer to 2008-2012), but where figures for 2013 are available (AT, CZ, DK, EE, FI, HU, MT and SI) these are included ii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; ii) no data for IE, FR, HR or SE; iii) the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). 2.5 Deterioration in living standards and increasing depth of poverty are becoming a very tangible consequence of the economic crisis in some countries Looking at the relative poverty rate set with other thresholds (40%, 50% of equivalised median income) can give further information on the shape of the distribution around the 60% threshold and allows to see what share of the population living below the 60% poverty threshold actually finds itself in the very bottom of the income distribution. When many incomes are concentrated around the threshold, the exact level of the threshold can have a considerable impact on the atrisk-of-poverty rate. Looking at 2013 data (Figure 14), we can see that overall for countries with equal levels of poverty risk at the 60% threshold, the share of people at the very bottom, i.e. below the 40% threshold is quite similar. The only notable exception is DK whose share of people at the very bottom (below 40%) is twice as high as that of FI while they share very similar poverty risk rates. The overall ranking of countries does not change substantially with the exception of FR, LU and LT which see their positions improve as they have a stronger concentration of people around the 60% threshold. 41 Figure 14: At-risk-of-poverty rate at different threshold levels (40%, 50% and 60% of median equivalised income), 2013 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) sorted on the AROP rate with a 60% threshold ii) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012. iii) For the atrisk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). It is interesting to look at the evolution of the poverty rate at the different threshold-levels as this gives an indication as to where the major changes have occurred – more people slipping into more severe forms of poverty or rather more people concentrating at the 60% poverty threshold level. For EL, IE, IT and PT it is notable that there is a more pronounced rise in the share in the most severe poverty category. For LU and SE, it is more a case of changes reflecting people concentrating more around the 60% threshold. Table 4 below shows the evolution in the short-term (2012-2013) and long-term (2008-2013) highlighting only changes of magnitude greater than 1pp. For several of the countries the longterm changes observed have been more or less of similar magnitude regardless of the threshold level used, including those countries where changes were not significant across the range of thresholds and SK. For EL, IE, IT and PT it is notable that there is a more pronounced rise in the share in the most severe poverty category. For LU and SE, it is more a case of changes reflecting people concentrating more around the 60% threshold. 42 Table 4: Evolution (in pp) of the at-risk-of-poverty rate at different poverty threshold levels (40%, 50%, 60%), 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 pp change 2008-2013 EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK pp change 2012-2013 40% 50% 60% 40% 50% 60% n.a ~ ~ ~ n.a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n.a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -1.0 ~ ~ ~ 3.0 n.a 1.2 2.2 ~ ~ n.a ~ n.a ~ n.a ~ n.a 1.6 ~ 3.9 n.a 1.1 n.a ~ ~ -2.6 ~ -5.8 ~ -6.5 ~ n.a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n.a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.0 1.2 -1.2 ~ ~ ~ 1.8 2.4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 2.5 1.9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n.a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.8 1.3 ~ 1.5 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.2 ~ 2.0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.2 ~ 1.2 ~ 1.2 2.1 4.4 n.a ~ 2.3 ~ ~ 1.8 ~ 1.1 -1.3 1.7 2.1 -1.1 1.7 -2.3 -1.0 2.2 1.9 -1.8 2.6 -2.8 1.5 ~ ~ ~ 1.1 ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.0 ~ -1.4 ~ ~ Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) For ES there is a major break in series in 2013. Ii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iii) LV shows positive developments but the value of the poverty threshold for the period 20082013 has decreased substantially so these need to be taken with caution. The poverty gap is another way of looking at the depth of poverty, indicating the extent to which the incomes of those at risk of poverty fall below the poverty threshold on average. In policy terms, it indicates the scale of transfers which would be necessary to bring the incomes of those concerned up to the poverty threshold. The poverty gap in the EU27 in 2013 was 23.8% lower than the at-risk-of-poverty threshold. This has expanded by 2.0 pp since 2008, although broadly remaining stable since 2012. In 2013, the poverty gap in the EU27 countries varied between 15% (in FI) to over 30% (BG, EL, ES and RO). It is especially concerning that the poverty gap has increased in two-thirds of all Member States since 2008, and in some countries quite substantially so (by around 4 pp or more in BG, PT, HU, IT, DK, SK, ES and EL) (Figure 15). 43 The increasing depth of poverty was identified as a social trend to watch in 2013 by the SPC as more than 1/3 of Member States had statistically significant increases in their poverty gaps. Chapter 3 of this report analyses in-depth both the characteristics of the population that is found in this situation as well as the policy instruments put in place in Member States to address it. Figure 15: Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap, evolution in pp, 2012-2013 and 2008-13 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 23.8 23.8 24.0 19.2 30.9 16.6 23.7 20.4 21.5 19.1 32.7 30.9 16.6 28.1 28.0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -2.5 ~ ~ -2.3 n.a. 2.8 n.a. ~ -2.9 2.6 n.a. 2.0 2.8 2.0 3.9 -1.9 5.7 -1.8 1.2 1.4 8.0 7.0 2.1 3.1 5.0 CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 17.7 27.5 24.8 17.5 21.7 19.1 16.5 21.3 22.6 27.3 32.6 20.4 24.1 15.0 19.8 19.6 -1.3 -1.1 2.2 2.5 ~ 3.0 ~ 1.2 ~ 3.2 1.7 1.3 3.6 ~ ~ -1.3 2.4 -1.1 ~ ~ 4.4 -1.2 1.6 1.4 2.0 4.1 ~ 1.1 6.0 ~ 1.8 -1.4 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes). For the change 2012-2013, Eurostat computations of significance of net change. For the change 2008-2013, a 1pp threshold has been used. "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). After the evidence presented in the previous sections, it comes as no surprise that we observe substantial increases in the severe material deprivation rates in some Member States and clear signs of worsening living standards not only in countries with historically high rates. Figure 16 shows the evolution of the severe material deprivation rate both with respect to 2008 and for the latest yearly change 2012-2013. In the period 2012-2013, 8 Member States saw statistically significant increases in the share of their population living in severe material deprivation (with the highest increases in PT (2.3pp), CY (1.1 pp) and DK (1.0 pp)). However, the overall picture was more balanced than in the preceding years since there were also 11 Member States that recorded a statistically significant reduction in severe material deprivation, with particularly notable improvements in the Baltic States (LT (-3.8 pp), EE (-1.8 pp), and LV (-1.6 pp)) as well as IT (-2.1 pp) and PL (-1.6 pp). Nevertheless, as illustrated in Figure 17, the longer term trend remains mainly negative overall, with the rate of severe material deprivation having increased since 2008 in more than half of Member States. The countries seeing the worst increases – EL (9.1 pp), HU (8.9 pp) and CY (7.0 pp), but also IT, LV, IE, LT and MT – are among those most affected by the economic crisis, although LV and LT have experienced a very sharp improvement in the situation over the last year or two. PL and RO are the countries with the most important improvements since 2008. 44 Figure 16: Severe material deprivation rate, evolution in pp, 2012-2013 and 2008-13 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 9.6 9.6 7.4 5.1 43.0 6.6 3.8 5.4 7.6 9.8 20.3 6.2 5.1 14.7 12.4 ~ ~ ~ -1.2 -1.1 1.0 0.5 -1.8 n.a. 0.8 -0.2 -1.2 -2.1 n.a. 1.1 1.5 2.7 4.3 9.1 ~ ~ ~ 1.8 ~ ~ 1.8 ~ ~ 2.6 4.9 CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 16.1 24.0 16.0 1.8 26.8 9.5 2.5 4.2 11.9 10.9 28.5 6.7 10.2 2.5 1.4 8.3 1.1 -1.6 -3.8 0.5 -1.6 2.3 -1.4 7.0 4.7 3.7 1.1 -5.8 1.2 -4.4 ~ ~ 8.9 5.2 0.2 1.0 ~ -1.7 ~ ~ ~ -1.6 -0.4 -1.0 ~ ~ 0.5 3.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious;; ii) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes). For the change 2012-2013, Eurostat computations of significance of net change. For the change 2008-2013, a 1pp threshold has been used. "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). Figure 17: Longer term developments in the severe material deprivation rate, 2008-2013 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious;; ii) no 2013 data for IE, so longer term evolution refers to the period 2008-2012; ii)) For the change 2008-2013, a 1pp threshold has been used to determine whether changes are statistically significant, with ―stable performance‖ referring to statistically insignificant change. 45 If one looks at the "standard" material deprivation rate (defined as the percentage of the population with an enforced lack of at least three out of nine material deprivation items in the 'economic strain and durables' dimension), the general pattern of changes across Member States since 2008 is broadly similar to that for the severe material deprivation rate with a few notable exceptions - the relative decline in living standards is more pronounced compared to other Member States with regard to this measure than for severe material deprivation in IE (second largest rise in the material deprivation rate) and LT, and less pronounced in LV and MT. The largest rises in material deprivation since 2008 are observed in CY, EL and IE, with increases in excess of 10 pp, while AT, PL, RO and SK have seen significant declines. Figure 18: Changes in the “standard” (enforced lack of at least 3 items) material deprivation rate, 2008-2013 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious;; ii) no 2013 data for IE, so longer term evolution refers to the period 2008-2012; iii) the ―standard‖ material deprivation rate is defined as the percentage of the population with an enforced lack of at least three out of nine material deprivation items in the 'economic strain and durables' dimension. The deterioration in living standards is also clearly evident when examining the real change in gross household disposable income across the EU. Among those Member States for which figures are available, 11 have seen a decline in real household income between 2012 and 2013, in contrast to 6 where it has risen. Among the former, most notable is the close to 9% drop in EL, while among the latter, the improvements in LV and LT stand out (increases of 9.4% and 4.8% respectively). In a longer term perspective, however, real incomes have fallen markedly in many Member States since the crisis hit, with particularly strong falls in household income in ES (-6.3%), IT (-9.0%), LV (-14.6%), LT( -6.2%), PT (-6.6%) and above all EL (-31.9%). 46 Figure 19: Real change in gross household disposable income 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 2012-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change 2012-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES -0.2 n.a. -0.2 -0.2 n.a. -2.3 -1.8 0.6 n.a. n.a -8.7 0.2 FR ~ HR IT n.a. -1.3 -9.0 -0.1 n.a. -2.3 0.7 n.a. -3.1 2.5 3.4 n.a. n.a. -31.9 -6.3 2.4 n.a. CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK n.a. 9.4 4.8 n.a. 0.3 n.a. -1.0 -1.9 n.a. -0.7 n.a. -1.2 1.9 -0.5 n.a. -0.2 n.a. -14.6 -6.2 n.a. -5.5 n.a. -3.1 -1.6 n.a. -6.6 n.a. -5.8 1.7 3.7 n.a. 2.5 Source: DG EMPL estimates based on Eurostat (National Accounts) Notes: i) Data only available for 18 countries based on the ESA2010 national accounts revision. ii) ,Growth for the EU28 in real terms is estimated from existing Member States‘ data which must cover at least 85% of the EU nominal GDHI, iii) Any positive or negative change is highlighted given that the data source is national accounts. 2.6 Long-term exclusion from the labour market continues to be a main driver of increasing trends in poverty and social exclusion The rises in unemployment and long-term unemployment have been some of the more immediate and tangible impacts of the economic crisis. The share of (quasi-) jobless households increased in 11 countries in 2013, most noticeably in the southern Member States most affected by the crisis (EL, ES, CY, PT) but also in DK and SE. EL registered the largest increase between 2012 and 2013 with a rise of 4 pp. Only 5 countries registered a significant reduction (EE, FR, HR, LV and RO) ( Figure 20). With reference to 2008, 2/3 of Member States have statistically significant increases in their share and for 1/3 of them the increase is around 5pp or more – BG, EL, ES, IE, LV, LT and PT. Figure 20: Evolution of the share of people living in (quasi-) jobless households, 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 10.7 10.6 10.9 14.0 13.0 6.9 12.9 9.9 8.4 23.4 18.2 15.7 7.9 14.8 11.0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -0.7 n.a. 4.0 1.4 -0.5 -2.0 0.7 n.a. 1.5 1.7 2.3 4.9 CY LV LT LU HU MT ~ NL 7.9 10.0 11.0 6.6 12.6 9.0 9.3 1.4 -1.7 ~ ~ 3.4 4.6 ~ ~ ~ 5.9 0.5 1.9 1.6 ~ 4.4 -1.8 3.1 9.7 10.7 9.1 AT PL PT RO SI SK ~ FI 7.8 7.2 12.2 6.4 8.0 7.6 9.0 ~ ~ 2.1 -1.0 0.5 ~ ~ ~ ~ 5.9 -1.9 1.3 2.4 1.5 0.4 1.1 n.a. 1.2 SE UK 7.1 13.2 1.4 0.2 1.6 2.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iii) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes) while "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. 47 statistically insignificant change). For the change 2012-2013, Eurostat computations of significance of net change have been used. For the change 2008-2013, a 1pp threshold has been used. iv) The (quasi-) jobless households rate refers to the previous calendar year (i.e. 2011). Unemployment has worrisome social costs – greater probabilities of lower life-satisfaction, poorer health, a greater sense of disillusionment with society and a far more pessimistic assessment of labour market prospects. The important point about all these identified social effects is that, once established, they become increasingly difficult to eradicate (Saunders, 2002). In addition, past experiences of recessions in the EU and other parts of the world show that long-term unemployment continues to rise after total unemployment has peaked, and takes a long time before it starts to decline. For instance, during the 1990's, while overall unemployment in the EU had already started to decline in 1995 (following the increases during the period 1991-94) the number of long-term unemployed decreased only from 1998. Long-term labour market exclusion was identified as a social trend to watch in 2013 by the SPC as more than 1/3 of Member States had statistically significant increases in their shares of the population experiencing this. Chapter 3 of this report analyses in-depth both the characteristics of the population that is found in this situation as well as the policy instruments put in place in Member States to address it. One of the most significant challenges for social policy over the coming years will involve far more than lowering total unemployment back to its former levels, because this in itself will not unwind the cumulative long-term social effects that accompany the rise in unemployment. In some countries, increasing numbers of people are moving onto long-term sickness and disability benefits or early retirement schemes. Among these people, many are likely never to enter or return to the labour market. Moreover, workers in some sectors/occupations (such as in the construction sector, where the incidence of long-term unemployment was previously limited), experienced a double disadvantage: higher probability of becoming unemployed, and if unemployed, higher chance of becoming long-term unemployed. This underlines the role of job creation policies, especially in growing sectors, to ensure new places for both the short-term and long-term unemployed as well as of activation measures focusing on re-training in order to adapt workers' skills to the new needs of the labour market. Furthermore, there is need for early identification of short-term unemployed with an increased risk of slipping into long-term unemployment and subsequent provision of additional interventions, such as personal counselling and tailored activation programmes including re-training and up-skilling. Even though such targeted interventions tend to be more costly in the short run, their longer-term individual and societal benefits prevail, and their importance becomes pivotal at the moment when long-term unemployment threatens to leave permanent scars on significant proportions of human capital stock in many EU countries (European Commission, 2013b). 48 2.7 While the overall share of working poor is stable at EU level, there is strong divergence in trends across Member States Having a job is not always a guarantee against the risk of poverty, as the working poor represent one third of working-age adults who are at-risk-of-poverty. In 2013, 8.9% of people in employment were living under the poverty threshold in the EU, little changed from the previous year, although the latest annual developments were fairly mixed across Member States. Over 2012-2013, the risk increased in 8 Members States, most notably in CY (1.0 pp), LT (1.5 pp) and HU (1.3 pp), but also in DE and LU (both up 0.9 pp). In contrast, improvements were recorded in 7 Member States, among which DK (-1.4 pp), EL (-2.1 pp) and RO (-1.2 pp) showed the strongest reductions. Despite recent improvement in some cases, the highest rates are still observed in RO (17.7%), mostly driven by the high poverty risk for the self-employed, EL (13.0%) and LU (11.2%), with rates also above 10% in ES, IT, PL and PT. In-work poverty was previously identified as a social trend to watch in 2012 by the SPC (SPC, 2012) and a detailed analysis of the situation in Member States and the policy measures implemented across Member States to combat it was presented in last year‘s annual report (SPC, 2013). Figure 21: Evolution of the share of working poor, 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 8.9 9.0 8.7 4.4 7.2 4.1 4.3 8.6 7.7 5.4 13.0 10.6 8.0 6.2 10.7 ~ ~ ~ -0.1 ~ -0.5 -1.4 0.9 -0.8 n.a. -2.1 n.a. ~ ~ ~ -1.2 1.2 1.5 n.a. 1.7 UK n.a. 1.5 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE 9.0 9.1 9.2 11.2 6.6 5.9 4.5 7.9 10.8 10.4 17.7 7.1 5.8 3.8 7.1 1.5 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.5 -1.2 0.6 1.0 2.7 ~ -1.6 ~ 1.8 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 2.0 ~ ~ ~ -1.3 ~ ~ 8.2 -0.5 ~ Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only;; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes). For the change 2012-2013, Eurostat computations of significance of net change. For the change 2008-2013, a 1pp threshold has been used. "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). 2.8 The situation regarding child poverty and youth exclusion is a major concern As highlighted in the previous sections, long-term exclusion from the labour market continues to be one of the main drivers in the deterioration of income and living standards, alongside the 49 phasing out the automatic stabilisation instruments of social protection systems in the face of the prolonged economic downturn, and persistent levels of in-work poverty. This is particularly important when discussing the situation of children as unemployment, low work intensity of parents and low earnings, in some countries coupled with low access to services and the weak impact of income support measures, are among the main factors leading to child poverty and social exclusion. Box 3. Peer review on local consultation platforms to fight child poverty In May 2014 Belgium launched the pilot project ―Children First‖ to offer a more specific response to the European Commission‘s Recommendation on Investing in children (European Commission (2013a), which recommends that Member States strengthen coordination between the different actors involved; streamline their policies in all relevant areas; and promote stakeholder participation and exchange of best practices. The programme supports the Public Centres for Social Welfare (PCSW) in playing a leading role in the fight against childhood poverty through the launch of local consultation platforms. The aim is to detect hidden childhood poverty and to promote child well-being. The local consultation platforms are expected to assume one or more of the following tasks: i) to sensitise local actors about poverty and inform them of the existing aid channels, ii) to provide general support to local actors through social workers, and iii) to offer concrete support including collective and individual level support. The target group includes children aged 12 and under, in or at risk of poverty. Special attention is paid to early childhood. The related Peer Review, held in Brussels on 13-14 January 2015, discussed ways of ensuring and enhancing cooperation between various services and actors involved in the fight against child poverty, the role of early childhood education and care institutions, monitoring and evaluation of related projects and initiatives, and the best way to involve stakeholders in the process. The Belgian Children First programme has the potential to significantly contribute to the goals of Europe 2020 and the Social Investment Package. First, it seeks to prevent the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Second, it has a focus on early intervention and prevention which are essential for developing effective and efficient policies. Furthermore, through bringing together actors from different policy levels and sectors, the consultation platforms have the potential both to strengthen synergies between different fields/sectors and to promote cooperation between public authorities, local communities and civil society organisations. For further details consult the following link: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1024&langId=en&newsId=2100&furtherNews=yes There were 26.1 million children in the EU-28 (25.9 in the EU-27) living in poverty or social exclusion in 2013, accounting for around 1/5 of all people living in poverty or social exclusion. The situation of children has been strongly affected by the economic crisis and until 2012 had been generally worsening in the EU, mainly reflecting rises in severe material deprivation among children and in the number of children living in (quasi)jobless households. 50 Figure 22: Evolution in child poverty and social exclusion and its components in the EU-27 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: Figures are in 1000s. AROPE – at risk of poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi)Jobless households - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless (i.e. very low work intensity) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate. For the at-risk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the (quasi-)jobless household (i.e. very low work intensity) rate refers to the previous calendar year (i.e. 2012) while for the severe material deprivation rate, the reference is the current survey year (i.e. 2013). However, in 2013 the situation stabilised somewhat at EU level, with 8 Member States registering statistically significant reductions in the poverty or social exclusion rate for children compared to the year before, most notably HR (-5.5 pp), RO (-3.7 pp) and CZ (-2.4 pp) as well as FI, FR and IT (all with declines of 1.9 pp). Nevertheless, 5 Member States saw a continued worsening in the situation for children, for some with very sharp increases of around 3pp or more – PT (3.8 pp), LT (3.5 pp) and EL (2.7 pp). The situation with respect to the longer term trend remains alarming, with 2/3 of Member States seeing significant increases in the rate of child poverty or social exclusion between 2008 and 2013. In a number of countries, these longer term increases are in the range of 6-10 pp (HU (9.6pp), EL (9.4 pp), BG (7.3 pp), MT (7.0 pp), IE (6.5 pp to 2012), CY (6.2 pp), and LV and LT both 6.0 pp), while only four Member States (CZ, FI, PL and RO) recorded a significant decrease in their child poverty or social exclusion rates (Figure 23). Levels of child poverty of the order of 40% in EL, HU and LV, and around 50% in BG and RO in 2013 are of particular concern. 51 Figure 23: Evolution of the share of children (0-17) at risk of poverty or social exclusion, 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 27.6 27.6 25.0 21.9 51.5 16.4 15.5 19.4 22.3 33.1 38.1 32.6 21.3 29.3 31.9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n.a. 2.7 n.a. -1.9 -5.5 -1.9 -0.9 ~ -2.4 n.a. 1.0 1.2 ~ 7.3 -2.2 2.8 ~ 2.9 6.5 9.4 3.2 ~ n.a. 2.8 CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 27.7 38.4 35.4 26.0 43.0 32.0 17.0 22.9 29.8 31.6 48.5 17.5 25.5 13.0 16.2 32.6 ~ -1.6 3.5 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 3.8 -3.7 1.1 ~ -1.9 ~ 1.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.1 9.6 7.0 1.5 -3.1 2.1 -2.7 2.2 1.2 -2.1 1.6 3.0 ~ ~ Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes), using Eurostat computations of significance of net change "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). v) For the at-risk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the (quasi-)jobless households (i.e. very low work intensity) rate refers to the previous calendar year (i.e. 2012) while for the severe material deprivation rate, the reference is the current survey year (i.e. 2013). Box 4. Peer review on innovative practices with marginalised families to prevent out of home child placement The 2013 Commission Recommendation on Investing in Children guides Member States to organise and implement policies to address child poverty and social exclusion and promote children‘s well-being, through measures grounded in multi-dimensional strategies and recognition of children‘s rights and best interests. The Programme to prevent institutionalisation (P.I.P.P.I.), which was subject to a Peer Review held in Italy on 11-12 December 2014, provides an innovative example of how to address the 2013 Recommendation. The P.I.P.P.I. is a holistic research-training intervention for vulnerable families and professionals working with them, with the primary goal to prevent out of home child placement. The core activities are oriented to improving parenting skills, promoting full involvement in children‘s school life and strengthening social networks. The construction of an integrated and common assessment and care plan is core to the programme. This is done on an inclusive and participatory basis in the sense that all the relevant actors (parents, children, teachers, practitioners, other relatives, and all people involved in the promotion of the child‘s wellbeing) are part of the continual assessment and child plan. The Peer Review had a number of thematic foci: family support, parenting support and child protection. It also discussed the necessity for interventions with marginalised families to be multifaceted and integrated, the role of research and evidence gathering in planning and provision and how those who are in need of interventions can be engaged with. The child-centred nature and the build-up of local knowledge/bottom-up basis of the P.I.P.P.I. were praised by the Peer Review participants. Further interesting elements of the Italian case study include the strong theoretical 52 and holistic basis, the mobilisation of a multi-disciplinary team around the child, the mix of activities (individual and group, formal and informal), the focus on assessment, care planning and evaluation and the partnership way that this is done, the tailoring to families, the close collaboration between academia and service providers and the networking component which is core to the P.I.P.P.I. For further details consult the following link: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1024&langId=en&newsId=2133&furtherNews=yes While the worrisome levels of child poverty and what they imply in terms of human capital development pose an important question for the longer-term future of European countries, the disproportionate ways in which the recent economic crisis has affected youth is an important alarm bell for the very short-term. The gloomy outlook for the young implies growing risks of long-term unemployment and lasting inactivity, and remaining outside the labour market has far reaching consequences – not solely economic. These include a loss of confidence, an undermining of trust and expectations, and an increasing risk of social exclusion and disengagement from society. The labour market situation of young people and their exclusion from social security rights is therefore an increasingly urgent matter of utmost priority. A recent report by the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound (2014a)) provides an up-to-date overview of the situation of young people aged 18 to 29 years in Europe, based on findings from the European Quality of Life Survey. It concentrates in particular on their social situation, especially dimensions such as living arrangements, social exclusion, relationships and sources of support, and participation in society and social and cultural activities. Among the main findings are that: Unemployed and inactive young people give a comparatively low rating for their subjective well‑being; Deprivation has increased for young people of all social backgrounds since 2007 in nearly all EU countries, especially for those who are living in extended families with their parents and their own children; such people are likely to be unable to move out of the family home; Unemployed and inactive young people are more likely than others to feel socially excluded, to feel lonely, to face a lack of social support, and to have lower levels of mental well‑being; Young people are less likely to trust institutions now (in 2014) than they did in 2007 – with the exception of the police, whom they trust as much as before; Young people are more likely than older people to perceive tensions between ethnic or religious groups, as well as between groups of different sexual orientation. In view of these findings, the report highlights that one focus of policy should be on boosting social and democratic participation, personal development, and the sense of belonging to society. 53 In 2013 the youth unemployment ratio12 remained rather stable compared to the previous year. The vast majority of Member States recorded no significant change in the ratio, while only 4 countries recorded an increase and 5 a reduction. Of particular note among those countries with a deteriorating situation is the 4.1 pp rise in the ratio in CY. With regard to the beginning of the crisis the picture is clearly one of strong deterioration in the labour market situation of young people, with a significant increase witnessed in all but 4 Member States. The most dramatic increases (in excess of 6 pp) in the youth unemployment ratio have been observed in CY, EL, ES, HR, and PT. Improvement has been registered only in DE and LU (Figure 24). Figure 24: Youth unemployment ratio (15-24), 2008, 2012 and 2013 Source: Eurostat (LFS) Notes: The categorisation ―improvement‖, ‖stable‖, improvement/deterioration between 2008 and 2013. ‖deterioration‖ and ―strong deterioration‖ refers to Analysis by the European Commission (2012a) shows that the difficult labour market situation experienced by youth during the crisis has been reflected in a rise in inactivity among young people, mostly taking the form of labour market withdrawal rather than continued enrolment in 12 The reason for looking at both youth unemployment rates and ratios is that a use of only the unemployment rate can produce a distorted picture when comparing the youth labour markets of different countries. More precisely, one difficulty with using the unemployment rate as an indicator for the labour market performance, especially of young people, is that it shows the number of unemployed youth as a percentage of the youth labour force, i.e. those who are either employed or unemployed but actively looking for work. Using the youth labour force as a denominator can lead to distortions when comparing countries with great differences in youth activity rates or when activity rates change significantly over time. For instance, youth unemployment rates for two countries with identical numbers of youth and unemployed youth will differ if one country has a higher share of youth not available for the labour market because of, for example, a higher number of youth in education. More concretely, the country with a higher share of youth in education (or otherwise inactive) will display a higher youth unemployment rate. 54 education. Moreover, the developments that have taken place since 2008 may have serious longer term consequences for the current youth generation, as the delayed transition to the labour market and frequent periods of unemployment during a person's early working life may have lasting adverse effects on future employment and wage prospects. Long-term unemployment, detachment from the labour market and education or training may also intensify, leading to poverty and social exclusion, and other social challenges. Young people are particularly vulnerable to social exclusion and poverty as they move towards an independent life away from the parental household, a key step which involves looking for work and establishing their own household. For many, however, this is far from easy. Even if they find employment, they often start with low-paid jobs, which can make sustaining a household difficult. As Ward et al (2006) highlight, the process of achieving autonomy is influenced by public policies in a number of areas including employment, education, housing and social protection, and the outcomes have important implications for society as revealed in fertility and demographic trends. Low economic activity of youth as such should not be the main concern, given the high proportion of students among the young generation (close to 80% of the youngest age group 15-19), but rather the proportion of young people who are neither in employment nor in education and training (NEET). The share of NEETs in the EU had been shrinking up until 2008 (when the share was 13.9%), but then grew substantially through to 2012 when it reached 17.1%. In 2013 it stabilised at EU level, with only 5 Member States recording a deterioration (but with marked rises of close to 5 pp in CY and HR) while 6 recorded an improvement (Figure 25) The longer term picture however remains decidedly bleak, with 24 Member States having recorded significant increases in their NEET rates over the period 2008 to 2013. Particularly marked rises in NEET rates in excess of 6 pp were registered in CY, HR, EL, IT, RO, ES and PT, while only DE and LU have recorded a significant decrease. As a result of these developments, NEET rates in 2013 were over 25% in BG, CY, EL, HR and IT, and above 20% in ES, IE, HU and RO. In contrast, rates in AT, DE, DK, LU, NL and SE remained below 10%. 55 Figure 25: NEET (not in employment, education or training) rates (18-24), 2008, 2012 and 2013 Source: Eurostat (LFS) Notes: The categorisation ―improvement‖, ‖stable‖, improvement/deterioration between 2008 and 2013. ‖deterioration‖ and ―strong deterioration‖ refers to Youth exclusion was identified as a social trend to watch in 2013 by the SPC as more than 1/3 of Member States had statistically significant increases in their shares of youth neither in employment nor in education and training. Chapter 3 of this report analyses in-depth both the characteristics of the population that is found in this situation as well as the policy instruments put in place in Member States to address it. Early school leaving increases the likelihood of young people entering the labour market without adequate skills, who then may face unemployment or in-work poverty. Still, one out of every six early school leavers has completed only compulsory education or less. Across Europe, rates of early leavers from education and training range from as low as around 4-6% in CZ, HR, LU, SI and PL to as high as 23.6% in ES. Developments since 2008 have been widely positive across the EU, with reductions of more than 1pp in early school leavers rates in 20 Member States, most notably in PT (-16.0 pp ), ES (-8.1 pp), LU (-7.3 pp) and MT (-6.4pp). In the latest year for which data is available, 2013, 10 Member States recorded still further improvements in early school leaver rates, as opposed to only 1 country where the rate increased (Figure 26). School drop-out rates are much higher for children with a Roma or migrant background and also for children with special needs (Social Protection Committee (2012)). Early school leaving also shows a strong correlation with factors associated with poverty such as learning difficulties, discrimination, rejection by peers, hampered mobility, reduced school accessibility or ghettoisation. 56 Figure 26: Early leavers rates (in %) from education and training (18-24), 2008, 2012 and 2013 Source: Eurostat (LFS) Notes: The categorisation ―strong improvement‖, improvement/deterioration between 2008 and 2013. ―improvement‖, ‖stable‖ and ―deterioration‖ refers to The 2012 SPC Advisory Report on ―Tackling and Preventing Child Poverty, Promoting Child Wellbeing‖13 and the European Commission Social Investment Package14 highlighted the importance of following a comprehensive approach to tackle early school-leaving. This means integrated multilevel responses linking the home, the child, the school, adult education, community and relevant services. Schools, social and employment services and parents should combine their efforts and work together to prevent early school leaving. Offering a greater variety of education and training possibilities, both formal and informal as well as after school programmes, creating permeable and flexible education pathways, forming smaller classes and preparing individualised education plans, may help reduce early school-leaving. Providing quality vocational training options, educational experimental frameworks aimed at boosting the attractiveness of schools and enhancing motivation of pupils as well as special programmes for children with specific needs are vital to combat disadvantages. Improving availability of alternative or non-formal education, raising the compulsory schooling age or making secondary schools universally accessible will improve the flexibility of education systems. 13 http://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=7849&langId=en 14 http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=89&langId=en&newsId=1807&moreDocuments=yes&tableName=news 57 The ability of the EU to tackle the challenges related to child poverty and youth exclusion will be decisive in its capacity to guarantee a long-term future to its citizens. As pointed out by European Commission (2013b), the positive link between human capital and productivity, and therefore economic growth, has been clearly established by economic literature. It is, therefore, particularly worrying that the economic recession has had an especially strong negative impact on youth and children. More young people and children face poverty and exclusion, which imperils the development of those generations' human capital. The EU is at risk of creating a "lost generation" that might not be able to achieve its full potential in society. An insufficient level of human capital would affect individuals' employability and productivity and thereby their future earnings prospects and pension entitlements. In the context of ageing populations, younger generations would be illequipped to bear the expected burden of growing public finance expenditures. Such developments would also undermine the competitive advantage in the global markets that Europe derives from its highly skilled human capital and create significant barriers to long-term growth prospects. To avoid such a scenario, sufficient investment in human capital and well-being at an early age through, inter alia, provision of affordable and quality child care and education, as well as healthcare, facilitation of smooth transitions from education to work and support for career development of younger workers, is a policy imperative. 2.9 Income inequality is growing across and within Member States As highlighted by the 2014 Joint Employment Report15, and analysed extensively in the Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2013 report (European Commission (2013c)), the crisis has substantially altered the dynamics of inequality and affected different sections of the population in different ways. Income inequality is growing across and within many Member States, particularly in the South and in several non-Central European countries. These are also the Member States that witnessed the largest increases in unemployment. In many countries, the crisis has intensified the long-term trends of wage polarisation and labour market segmentation, which together with less redistributive tax and benefit systems have fuelled rising inequalities. High levels of unemployment, and in some cases the impact of fiscal consolidation, also explain the significant increases in inequalities observed in the countries most affected by the crisis. A recent OECD report16 highlighted the development of income inequality during the initial part of the crisis, covering the period 2007-2010. It showed that market income (i.e. work and capital income) decreased considerably during 2007-2010, but that disposable income fell less strongly, due to an offsetting effect stemming from an increase in social transfers and/or lower direct taxes and social security contributions. However, the loss in income was not evenly shared among income groups, with the result that income inequality (as measured by the GINI coefficient) continued to edge upwards during the crisis. 15 http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/2014/jer2014_en.pdf 16 OECD (2013), 'Crisis squeezes income and puts pressure on inequality and poverty' 58 An alternative measure of inequality, the income quintile ratio (S80/S20), shows that while on average inequality remained stable between 2008 and 2013 at EU level, there is a wide dispersion and growing divergence in inequality between Member States. The S80/S20 inequality ratio has increased significantly in 13 Member States compared to 2008, including in most of the Southern Member States (ES, EL, IT, CY) as well as in DK, EE, HU, HR, IE, LU, SI, SK and SE (Figure 27Error! Reference source not found. and Figure 28). In contrast, significant reductions in inequality were registered in BE, FI, LV, NL, RO and the UK over the same period. The highest income inequalities are found in BG, EL, ES, LV, LT, PT and RO, where the median equivalised income of the richest 20% of the population is around 6 times or more that of the poorest 20%. Figure 27: Income quintile ratio (S80/S20), evolution (% change) 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 2013 2012-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change 2013 2012-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.8 6.6 3.4 4.3 4.6 5.5 4.7 6.6 6.3 4.5 5.3 5.7 ~ ~ ~ -5.0 8.2 ~ ~ 7.0 ~ n.a. ~ n.a. ~ 10.0 6.8 11.9 26.3 n.a. -7.3 19.4 UK ~ ~ ~ ~ LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE 4.9 6.3 6.1 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.6 4.1 4.9 6.0 6.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 15.1 12.2 5.0 5.1 12.2 16.7 ~ ~ -13.7 ~ ~ ~ ~ -10.0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -5.7 5.9 5.9 ~ ~ 11.8 CY 14.0 ~ ~ 17.8 ~ ~ ~ 5.9 -5.3 5.7 4.6 -8.0 -17.9 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes). A 5% threshold has been used. "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). vi) income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2011) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). 59 Figure 28: Income quintile ratio (S80/S20), evolution 2008-2013 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Data not available for IE for 2013, so 2012 figure is shown; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so 2012 figure is shown; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) The blue line shows equal inequality in 2008 and 2013, so countries to the left of the line have seen a rise in inequality, and those to the right a reduction. 2.10 Mixed effectiveness of income support systems for those furthest away from the labour market Member States differ substantially in terms of the minimum safety nets they provide to jobless or quasi-jobless households, especially relative to the at-risk-of-poverty threshold. In 2013 the poverty risk for the (quasi-) jobless households ranged between as much as 78.4% in EE, 73.7% in SE, 73.6% in SK and 72.0% in BG to around 40% in DK, NL and the UK. Between 2012 and 2013, 6 Member States experienced a significant worsening of the poverty risk for (quasi-)jobless households with increases of 7.6 pp in LU, 7.0 pp in CY and around 5 pp in EE and PT. In contrast, strong reductions were recorded in DE (-4.8 pp), FI (-8.8 pp) and the UK (-4.8 pp), suggesting an improved efficiency of safety nets in terms of income support in these countries. The longer term trend since the beginning of the crisis (2008) has mainly been one of worsening poverty among (quasi-)jobless households, with 14 Member States seeing an increased poverty risk for people in such households and with increases of around 10 pp in FR, HU and PL, and of around 20 pp or above in EL, SK and SE. When looked at together with the parallel evolution of the share of the population in (quasi-)jobless households, it is evident that in some Member States such as BE, EL, ES, IT, LU, PT, SI, SK and SE, income support levels of last resort schemes have 60 worsened significantly at the same time as the number of people counting on them has increased. Furthermore, the adequacy of minimum safety nets is further affected by access limitations. In fact, significant shares of people who are entitled to social assistance do not actually receive these benefits, partly due to administrative complexities, lack of information and stigma. Figure 29: At-risk-of-poverty rate for the population living in (quasi-) jobless households (in %), evolutions 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 56.6 56.5 59.7 60.7 72.0 53.5 41.0 63.7 78.4 46.7 58.4 61.3 60.5 64.2 57.9 ~ ~ ~ -4.8 5.4 n.a. ~ n.a. 3.0 ~ 2.5 18.1 7.4 10.7 n.a. 4.9 n.a. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 4.3 6.0 -5.8 -1.9 ~ ~ -3.9 ~ CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 52.4 67.9 66.0 51.9 58.9 65.2 39.8 50.2 59.4 59.4 49.3 56.8 73.6 50.7 73.7 41.2 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 10.4 3.6 ~ ~ -1.1 1.8 20.5 7.0 2.0 -15.4 ~ 7.6 2.5 10.2 4.9 6.2 -8.8 -5.6 ~ 22.3 -4.8 -21.9 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes). For the change 2011-2012, Eurostat computations of significance of net change have been used. For the change 2008-2012, a 1pp threshold has been used. "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). v) For the at-risk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the (quasi-)jobless households (i.e. very low work intensity) rate refers to the previous calendar year (i.e. 2012) while for the severe material deprivation rate, the reference is the current year (i.e. 2013). To support the needs of people at risk of poverty, governments provide social security in the form of social transfers. The effectiveness of social provision can be examined by comparing the at-riskof-poverty rate before and after social transfers. The impact of social transfers on poverty reduction varies greatly across Member States. In 2013, it ranged from only 17.5% in EL to 56% in DK and 60% in IE (2012 figure). These large differences highlight the potential for improvement in some Member States in the size and effectiveness of social protection expenditure. Between 2012 and 2013, however, there were no significant changes in the capacity of social transfers to reduce poverty, and in the longer term (2008-2013) only 8 countries (EE, LV and LT as well as CY, ES, IE, FI and the UK) have strengthened the impact of transfers in reducing poverty as opposed to 4 countries (CZ, HU, PL and SE) where the impact has decreased17. 17 The assessment of the impact of social transfers on poverty reduction is complex, as it depends on various factors such as the effect of pensions' indexation on the poverty threshold and the phasing out of benefits (e.g. for long-term unemployed). 61 Figure 30: Impact of social transfers (excluding pensions) on poverty reduction, 2008, 2012 and 201318 2013 2012-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change 2013 2012-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 35.3 35.7 34.0 42.6 21.3 48.2 56.2 34.0 26.8 60.1 17.5 32.0 43.4 34.3 22.4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n.a. ~ n.a. ~ ~ ~ n.a. ~ ~ ~ ~ -6.8 ~ ~ 5.7 5.6 ~ 7.5 ~ ~ ~ CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 37.0 25.4 32.0 45.9 45.6 32.6 50.0 44.4 24.8 26.7 19.4 42.7 36.3 55.3 45.4 47.2 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 6.5 11.1 5.5 ~ -13.6 ~ ~ ~ -7.9 ~ ~ ~ ~ 5.1 -11.8 11.9 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes). A 5% threshold has been used. "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). vi) For the at-risk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2011) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). The above assessment of the impact of social transfers does not take into account non-cash benefits such as transfers in kind. A number of Member States provide public services to those furthest away from the labour market which contribute to general welfare and are not detected in purely income-based measures. However, if we look into the expenditure on such in-kind services, we can see that the countries which generally achieve a low impact of social transfers on poverty reduction are also those that tend to spend less on in-kind services. In most countries the spending on in-kind benefits has slightly increased since 2008, with an average increase of 1.1 pp at EU level, but with more notable rises in IE (8.1 pp) and FI, NL and the UK (all with rises of close to 2 pp). 18 The impact of social transfers is a theoretical indicator which is calculated using a fixed poverty line and ignores the influence that social transfers have on median income. This should be taken into account when interpreting the figures. 62 Figure 31: Social benefits in-kind, as % of GDP, 2008 and 2012 Source: Eurostat (Esspros) Box 5. Peer review on social impact assessment by means of microsimulation models The Peer Review held in Austria, on 4-5 December 2014, discussed quantitative models which simulate the probable effect of changes in taxes and welfare benefits in order to provide policymakers with a useful evidence base. Austria has broken new ground by creating an easy-to-use public website (SORESI) which enables all citizens to calculate the effects of tax and benefit changes on different sections of the population. SORESI is based on the EU-wide EUROMOD simulation engine, which holds the EU-SILC data on all 28 Member States. Key messages that emerged during the discussion included that building customisable national web front-ends for the EUROMOD simulation engine is a replicable initiative. The European Commission is willing to help Member States with set-up costs should the need arise. However, also constant support including funding for running a micro-simulation model has to be ensured. Since social NGOs are key potential users, they should be involved in the design of such websites. There are persuasive arguments for developing systems with two interfaces – a user-friendly but limited one for use by the general public, and a more flexible one for expert users. It was pointed out that there is a need to extend EUROMOD to include the modelling of indirect taxes as well as wealth taxes. There is also a good case to include gender impact assessment in micro-simulations, for example related to pension issues. 63 Tax-benefit micro-simulation is a useful tool in measuring progress towards meeting the objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy. It helps policy-makers to develop evidence-based policies because it enables them to see in detail how policy changes are likely to affect different parts of the population and to estimate their budgetary effects. In this context, the European Semester approach could benefit from micro-simulation models. Furthermore, the open availability of a micro-simulation model would allow stakeholders to play a more active part in policy-making, because they could compare the effects of government proposals with those of possible alternatives. Tax-benefit micro-simulation is also relevant for the Social Investment Package in that it can track the way in which childcare benefits affect poverty and social inclusion. However, to forecast the return to social investments, the tax-benefit model must be linked with a labour supply model. For further details consult the following link: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1024&langId=en&newsId=2098&furtherNews=yes 2.11 Consistent and widespread improvement of the employment rate of older workers Considerable effort has been made over the last decade or so to improve older people‘s labour market participation. As can be seen in Figure 32, this is an area where positive strides have been made, even during the period of the crisis. The employment rate of older workers aged between 55 and 64 years had increased to 50.2% in the EU in 2013, a rise of close to 5 pps since the beginning of the crisis in 2008. The increase since 2008 has been highest in DE (+9.9 pps) and PL (+9.0 pps), but also substantial (around 6-8 pps) in BE, FR, LU, HU, MT, NL and IT, in some of which the financial incentives to continue work at older ages have improved strongly in recent years (e.g. DE, FR, IT and NL). Overall, since 2008, 18 Member States have improved their employment rates for older workers, and the widespread positive impetus is continuing as significant rises were also recorded between 2012 and 2013 in 17 Member States. Only in the southern Member States of CY, EL, ES and PT as well as in EI, LV and RO, generally those Member States which were hardest hit by the crisis have negative trends been observed over 2008-2013. For some such as CY, EL, LV and PT the fall in older workers‘ employment rates has been very marked, ranging from around 4 pps to as high as 7.4 pps in EL. The Baltic States had previously experienced a generally worsening situation overall with reference to 2008, but in recent years have registered notable improvements. 64 Figure 32: Employment rate of older workers (55-64), evolution 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 50.2 50.3 50.0 41.7 47.4 51.6 61.7 63.6 62.6 51.3 35.6 43.2 45.6 37.8 42.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.0 ~ ~ 1.1 1.1 2.3 4.7 4.7 5.6 7.2 1.4 4.0 9.9 ~ -2.4 -7.4 -2.3 7.4 1.1 8.3 ~ 3.3 CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 49.6 54.8 53.4 40.5 38.5 36.3 60.1 44.9 40.6 46.9 41.5 33.5 44.0 58.5 73.6 59.8 -1.1 2.0 1.7 ~ 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.7 -5.2 -4.3 ~ 6.4 7.1 6.2 7.1 3.9 9.0 -3.8 -1.6 ~ 4.8 2.0 3.5 1.8 Source: Eurostat (LFS) Note: Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes) with a 1pp threshold. "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). Reasons for the overall positive trend, which was already on-going before the crisis, include a continuing upward shift in educational achievement levels and in the participation of female workers aged 55-64 along with the higher employment protection enjoyed by older workers, but also the impact of tax/benefit reforms restricting access to early retirement and encouraging longer working lives and some changes in age management in work places. All this is feeding through into extending the effective retirement age. Box 6. Peer review on the Active Ageing Index and its extension to the regional level The Peer Review in Poland on 15-16 October 2014 discussed the use of the Active Ageing Index (AAI) as a means to measure the untapped potential of older people, their independence and participation in paid employment and social activities. The AAI contributes to the objectives of the Social Investment Package by enabling Member States to invest better in the skills and capacities of older people. The Peer Review explored whether a regional AAI, as piloted by Poland, could be a useful extension to this. Most policies focus on the issues of employment and health, and the focus is shifting from the national to the regional level. In order to implement policies for active ageing, the Peer Review participants stressed the necessity to involve regional and local authorities, as well as a wide range of stakeholders – primarily older people, but also young people, employers, trade unions, service providers and researchers. The wide gender disparities that the index reveals show that it is furthermore vitally important to take a gender approach to preparing indexes on ageing. The governance of active ageing policy was also an issue as many countries lack the administrative machinery to co-ordinate the efforts of the different ministries involved. Those countries that do have a coordinating body have the advantage that there is an interlocutor to conduct dialogue with the stakeholders. There was a broad consensus among the Peer Review participants that the Active Ageing Index is potentially a useful tool at regional and local level. However in order to use it, an investment needs to be made in obtaining data, and the index needs to be applied flexibly to cope with regional 65 differences, such as the rural/urban distinction. It should not be seen as a rigid tool, but as a framework for policy dialogue. For further details consult the following link: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1024&langId=en&newsId=2099&furtherNews=yes Active ageing measures are of growing importance as recent pension reforms require longer contributory periods to ensure an adequate pension. Increased employment ensures the accumulation of pension rights and contributes to the sustainability of the pension system. For this to be successful however, older workers' employment must guarantee pension rights and pension levels must be adequate in order to combat poverty and social exclusion in old age. This is of particular importance for women. The move towards gender equality in the employment rate of older workers is not mirrored in a broader move towards more equal work patterns. Women, generally, have a lower participation rate, experience a gender pay gap, and more often interrupt their working lives due to child rearing. Female pensioners have a higher risk of poverty than men as a consequence of these gender inequalities; women receive lower pensions than men and often fail to qualify for benefits. Therefore, first and foremost, active ageing measures which ensure equal outcomes for men and women are needed, as the lack of progress in activity and employment rates can often be explained by poor employment opportunities and working conditions for older workers which can undermine the incentives embedded in pension systems. Social protection systems which effectively contribute to maintaining the health of the population and provide adequate long-term care also play a key role in enabling participation in society and the labour market and ensuring independent living by older people. Beyond health services, working and living environments should also be better adapted to the needs of older people, including adapted housing and transport services, local libraries, and home support, which enable the elderly to live independently for longer. 2.12 Pensions continue to avert poverty for many though divergence in adequacy and effectiveness remains Pensions constitute by far the main source of income for older Europeans, who represent a large and growing share of the EU population. They are also the largest element in social protection systems, affecting the primary incomes of more people than any other component. The total number of pensioners in the EU presently comes to about 120 million or a quarter of the population. Almost 2/3 of these are women. The adequacy of pensions is measured by, among other things, their ability to prevent poverty, the degree to which they replace income before retirement and how they compare to the average incomes of people below pensionable age. 66 Regarding the ability of pensions to prevent poverty in old age, the trend since the beginning of the crisis in the income situation of the elderly has been better than for other age groups in many Member States, mainly due to the stability of pension income. 23 Member States have seen the share of the elderly at risk of poverty or social exclusion decrease by more than 1pp between 2008 and 2013. There are, however, three countries which have had increasing rates of poverty or social exclusion of the elderly over the same period – HU, LU and SE. In addition, several countries saw increases between 2012 and 2013 (EE, LV, LU and the UK), although the general trend remains widely positive with 15 Member States recording significant reductions. In terms of actual levels of the share of the elderly living in poverty or social exclusion there remain wide disparities across Member States. In 2013 the share was close to 60% in BG and above 30% in HR, LT, LV and RO, while being below 10% in LU and NL. Figure 33: At risk of poverty or social exclusion rate for the elderly (65+), evolution 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 18.3 18.2 16.5 19.5 57.6 10.4 11.4 16.0 28.0 14.7 23.1 14.5 10.4 31.9 22.6 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.7 -1.5 ~ -3.2 ~ 6.2 n.a. ~ n.a. -0.7 ~ -2.6 n.a. -5.2 -3.9 -3.4 -7.9 -2.1 -7.2 ~ -12.9 -7.8 -5.0 -11.1 -3.7 n.a. -1.8 CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 26.1 36.1 31.7 7.0 19.0 20.8 6.1 16.2 19.7 20.3 35.0 23.0 13.6 16.8 16.5 18.1 -7.3 2.4 -4.0 0.9 -1.6 -1.5 ~ ~ -3.7 -1.9 -0.7 -2.7 -2.7 -1.4 0.8 -23.2 -22.7 -6.4 1.6 1.5 -5.2 -3.6 -5.0 -7.2 -7.4 -14.2 -8.3 -7.1 1.0 -10.4 ~ -1.4 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes). For the change 2012-2013, Eurostat computations of significance of net change have been used. For the change 2008-2013, a 1pp threshold has been used. "~" refers to stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). vi) For the at-risk-of poverty rate, the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the quasi-)jobless households (i.e. very low work intensity) rate refers to the previous calendar year (i.e. 2012) while for the severe material deprivation rate, the reference is the current year (i.e. 2013). Pension systems play a key role in allowing people to maintain their living standards in old age at a level comparable to that achieved during working life. The median relative income of older people (i.e. the ratio of the median equivalised disposable income of people aged above 65 to the median equivalised disposable income of those aged below 65), has been rather stable in most Member States in the latest period with few exceptions. At EU level the relative median income ratio reached 93% in 2013, but underlying this are substantial differences across countries. The relative median income ratio was below 70% in EE, and under 80% in BE, BG, CY, DK, FI, LV and MT. At the other end of the spectrum, EL, ES, FR, HU, LU, and RO recorded a relative median equivalised income for people over 65 that was equal to or greater than that for younger cohorts. 67 Figure 34: Median relative income ratio for the elderly, 2008, 2012 and 2013 EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.76 0.76 0.85 0.76 0.89 0.69 0.88 1.04 1.00 1.02 0.88 0.96 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n.a. ~ n.a. ~ ~ ~ n.a. 9.4 9.3 ~ 15.2 7.6 8.6 ~ 11.3 18.9 20.9 17.7 7.4 17.3 9.1 CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 0.77 0.77 0.81 1.13 1.05 0.79 0.90 0.95 0.98 0.94 1.04 0.87 0.90 0.78 0.81 0.87 10.0 ~ ~ ~ 8.2 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 11.1 ~ ~ ~ 30.5 45.3 14.1 16.5 5.0 8.2 7.1 8.0 ~ 13.3 22.4 ~ 13.9 8.3 ~ 17.6 2013 2012-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change 2013 2012-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes). A 5% threshold has been used. "~" refers to stable performance, vi) income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Since 2008 the ratio has increased by more than 15% in ten countries: BG, CY, EL, ES, IE, HR, LV, LU, RO and the UK. The only countries which did not show a significant improvement (i.e. of above 5%) were BE, DE, PL, SI and SE. When analysing fluctuations of this income ratio indicator, one has to be aware that it is a relative measure and its value is influenced by changes in the income of both the elderly (numerator) and the working age population (denominator). A decrease in the income of the working age population when the income position of people age 65+ remains stable might give the impression that the actual position (i.e. income level) of the older cohort has improved. The indicator thus needs to be assessed together with some absolute variables, such as the evolution in per capita incomes. To assess the extent to which pensions fulfil their role of replacing income after retirement, it is important to consider how many people are covered by pension systems and how large a proportion of their income is derived from pensions. The aggregate replacement ratio measures the median individual gross pension (including old-age and other pension benefits) of people aged 65-74 relative to median individual gross earnings of people aged 50-59. 68 Figure 35: Aggregate replacement ratio, evolutions 2012-2013 and 20082013 2013 2012-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change 2013 2012-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.47 0.39 0.56 0.44 0.47 0.50 : 0.60 0.60 0.64 0.37 0.62 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n.a. 15.4 n.a. ~ ~ n.a. 12.0 12.0 9.8 7.3 6.8 11.1 n.a. 46.3 18.4 ~ -7.1 14.7 ~ -21.3 6.9 21.6 CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 0.40 0.47 0.48 0.78 0.61 0.56 0.47 0.59 0.60 0.59 0.65 0.46 0.61 0.49 0.58 0.53 ~ ~ 6.7 ~ 5.2 21.7 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 8.9 ~ ~ 6.0 21.2 56.7 9.1 34.5 ~ 36.6 9.3 ~ 7.1 15.7 32.7 ~ 13.0 ~ -6.5 23.3 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: i) Data not available for IE for 2013 or 2012; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes). A 5% threshold has been used. "~" refers to stable performance, vi) income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year (i.e. 2012) except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). At EU level the ratio reached 56% in 2013, although there are substantial variations across countries (see Error! Not a valid bookmark self-reference.Figure 35). In general, the aggregate replacement ratios show that current median pension levels are very low compared to current median earnings in HR, BG and CY (respectively 37%, 39% and 40% in 2013) and to some extent in BE, DE, DK, FI, LV, LT, NL and SI (all below 50% in 2013). This can be due to low income replacement from statutory pension schemes (e.g. BG), but it can also reflect the immaturity of supplementary pension schemes (e.g. CY), low past labour force participation rates and incomplete careers. As for its evolution, the value of the ratio for the EU-27 increased by 12%, from 50% in 2008 to 56% in 2013. This upward trend is observed in two-thirds of Member States and is primarily the result of the crisis-related decline in wage incomes of people aged 50-59. Only HR and SE have experienced a worsening of the income position of pensioners in comparison to the working population 50-59 since 2008, and only BG registered a deterioration between 2012 and 2013. In 2012 the SPC adopted its report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2012-2052)19 which analysed the future adequacy of pensions by assessing theoretical replacement rates (TRRs). Some of the main conclusions related to the fact that future levels of pensions in relation to earnings (income replacement levels) will depend on different factors, notably the pace of accrual of pension entitlements (which is linked to developments in the labour market), the maturation of pension schemes and the effect of reforms. 19 http://www.google.be/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCQQFjAA&url =http%3A%2F%2Fec.europa.eu%2Fsocial%2FBlobServlet%3FdocId%3D7805%26langId%3Den&ei=KzHaVKfxKIK3PPPug YAC&usg=AFQjCNEoUYCc12Zi20O6lUkVWof1pYST1w 69 Most Member States' reforms of statutory schemes will lead to a decrease of replacement rates at given retirement ages. Indeed, measures introduced in many Member States in order to cope with increasing longevity and to incentivise longer working lives go in this direction: lowering future benefit levels at a fixed retirement age, increasing the statutory retirement age, tightening and abolishing of early retirement options, or increasing contributory periods needed for a full pension. 2.13 Access to health and health outcomes Health status is a key determinant of the well-being and labour market participation of the individual. A healthy population is associated with better educational attainment, better earnings and wages, higher labour market participation and a higher number of hours worked in adult age. Health is also shown to be positively associated with economic growth and social welfare. Despite these benefits, a recent Eurofound study (Eurofound (2014b)) reports that in the wake of the crisis, many European governments have cut spending on healthcare services. However, in the face of rising unemployment and financial strain, there is an increased need for some healthcare services, while decreased disposable income has made access to healthcare more difficult for many households in the EU. In this context, policymakers and service providers are faced with the challenge of maintaining access to healthcare services. Looking at both objective and subjective measures of health can provide a snapshot of the health status of society as a whole. In general, at EU level the number of healthy life years (HLY) at 65 is now quite similar for both women and men, with the EU average for both being 8.5 years in 2012. Over the period 2008-2012, there was a significant increase in healthy life expectancy for women in 10 Member States, the greatest rises being in AT (2 years) and PT (3.5 years, but with a break in the time series). There were only five countries where HLY at 65 for women decreased significantly (EL, LT, RO, SI, UK), with the biggest decrease recorded in RO and SI (down by 2.8 and 2.5 years respectively). 70 Figure 36: Healthy life years at 65 for females, 2008 and 2012 Source: Eurostat The change in HLY at 65 for men in the years 2008 – 2012 has generally been even more positive than that for women, with 15 Member States recording rises for men, although there were significant falls in 5 (CY, DK, ES, RO and SI). Similar to the situation for females, the greatest decreases were noted in RO and SI (both down 1.9 years). On the other hand, the greatest increases were noted in MT (2 years) and PT (3.2 years, but with a break in the time series). Figure 37: Healthy life years at 65 for males, 2008 and 2012 Source: Eurostat 71 The Eurofound study cited previously (Eurofound (2014b)) finds that while the crisis has been a major factor influencing complex healthcare systems, there are significant differences between countries and between services in the impact the crisis has had on healthcare access. Nevertheless, even where a country‘s health services have hardly experienced any cuts (such as all services in Luxembourg, and nursing home healthcare in Latvia), it has still been possible to identify impacts of the crisis on access to healthcare. The study also finds that difficulties in accessing healthcare have long been more common among certain population groups, and that in some cases, measures facilitating access for these groups have been cut. While there is great heterogeneity within these groups, they include people living in countries with poor overall access or in remote areas; those with low health literacy, poor education and low incomes; people with greater healthcare needs in general (such as people with disabilities, elderly people and people with chronic illnesses); or those who belong to a specific disadvantaged ethnic minority (such as Roma), as well as homeless people and migrants. Moreover, it reports that the crisis has resulted in the emergence of new groups that were not considered vulnerable previously due to increased unemployment, especially among young men, and increased household debt problems, particularly for young couples facing housing and job insecurity. On average, 3.6 % of Europeans reported unmet need for medical care in 2013 (i.e. they had to join a waiting list, or the care available was too expensive or too far away). There are significant differences among Member States, with the rate as high as 13.8% in LV and 10.4% in RO, while in AT, ES, LU, MT, NL and SI the reported rate of unmet need is below 1%. There is a clear income gradient as those in the lowest income quintiles more often report an unmet need for medical care. Figure 38: Self-reported unmet need for medical care20, in %, and changes (in pp) 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp 2013 2012-2013 change in pp 2008-2013 change in pp EU28 EU27 EA18 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT 3.6 3.6 0.0 1.9 8.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 8.4 3.3 9.0 0.8 2.7 3.3 7.1 1.5 ~ ~ n.a. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.0 ~ ~ ~ n.a. ~ n.a. n.a. -6.4 ~ ~ ~ 1.1 1.5 3.6 ~ ~ n.a. 1.9 CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 4.4 13.8 3.2 0.9 2.4 0.9 0.4 0.4 8.8 3.0 10.4 0.0 1.9 4.3 1.9 1.6 ~ 1.4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.6 4.1 -2.3 ~ -1.0 ~ ~ ~ 2.8 1.9 ~ ~ ~ 3.5 ~ ~ Source: Eurostat Note: i) Break in series in BE in 2011 means that evolutions between years before 2011 and years from 2011 on cannot be interpreted; ii) Only statistically significant changes have been marked in green/red (positive/negative changes) with a 1pp threshold. "~" stands for stable performance (i.e. statistically insignificant change). 20 This indicator is defined on the basis on self-reported unmet need related to three reasons – too far to travel, waiting list, too expensive 72 In the period 2008–2013, 9 countries recorded an increase of 1 percentage point or more in the share of the population reporting unmet needs for care (CY, EE, EL, FI, IE, IT, LV, PL and PT). Only 3 countries registered significant improvements in access - BG (-6.4pp), LT (-2.3pp) and HU (1.0pp). In terms of the most recent changes for the period 2012-2013, there were only 3 countries that noted an increase (EL, IT and LV), but with none showing an improvement. While in most cases the share of this population has remained rather stable both in the latest available year (2012-2013) as well as since 2008, in EL, IT and LV, increases seem to be consistent across time. Box 7. Peer review on Health System Performance Assessment (HSPA) Health system performance assessment (HSPA) can be an important instrument in the governance of health systems for use at national level. Its main aims are to (i) set the goals and priorities for a health system; (ii) act as a focus for policy-making and coordinating actions within the health system; (iii) measure progress towards achievement of goals; (iv) promote efficient use of funds; (v) check the sustainability of the system and (vi) promote transparency and accountability to citizens. One of the most advanced countries in this field is Belgium, whose latest HSPA report covers five main dimensions of performance: quality, accessibility, efficiency, sustainability, and equity, featuring 74 indicators to assess the levels of performance. Thus, in May 2014, nine Member States met in Brussels for a Peer Review to learn from each other about different national models of HSPA: their underpinning methodologies, impact and governance process. The Peer Review furthermore allowed for Member States to learn about HSPA-related developments at EU-level and to indicate what support was required from the EU and international bodies. As stressed in the Peer Review discussions, HSPA should be descriptive, although its findings may lead to recommendations for improving a health system. The selection of indicators used in HSPA will affect its outcome. Thus, concerns were expressed about approaches that strongly compress the number of indicators. It was pointed out that the focus of HSPA is the use at national level. International or regional comparisons might be made during HSPA exercises bearing in mind restrictions due to different health systems and methodological problems regarding data availability and comparability. Such comparisons might pinpoint problems and inefficiencies within national or regional healthcare provision. It was however acknowledged that some constraints on access to data exist. Privacy concerns have become a major issue in some countries, and health data are particularly sensitive in this regard. Furthermore, accountability is key to the success of HSPA. It was stressed that European and international action to support HSPA was desirable. While participants did not see the need for a European HSPA model (due to the variety of national health systems), they would welcome technical assistance for the development of national HSPA and support from the EC for the improvement (especially better coordination and less duplication) of international data collection that would allow them to carry out comparisons. For further details consult the following link: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1024&langId=en&newsId=1890&furtherNews=yes 73 2.14 Developments in access to housing and homelessness Housing costs represent an important share of a household's income, especially for lower income groups. An increasing burden of housing costs on a household's income as well as the overindebtedness of many households might result in the inability of households to pay mortgages, rent or utility bills, increasing vulnerability for repossessions, foreclosures and evictions and in some cases, homelessness. There is a growing need for locally available affordable housing, including social housing and affordable private rentals, as well as a sufficient level of housing and heating allowances21 In 2013, the average share of housing costs over disposable household income varied among Member States, between a minimum of 2.6% in MT and a maximum of 36.9% in EL, with the average for the EU28 at 11.0%. Other countries with a relatively high share (in excess of 15%) were DE, DK, NL and RO. Significant increases in the average share of housing costs in disposable household income have been recorded in 13 Member States between 2008 and 2013. In a number of countries the increase has been more prominent for people living below the poverty threshold, with increases of around 10pp or more in DK, EE, ES, IE, LV and SK, and as high as 27.5pp in EL. For individuals with higher incomes, the housing cost overburden rate has remained relatively stable with the exception of EL where it also increased substantially. 21 Commission Staff Working Document (2013)42 final on Confronting homelessness in the European Union 74 Figure 39: Evolution of the housing cost overburden rate, 2008-2013 (in pp) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: 1) Evolution for IE is for the period 2008-2012; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EUSILC, so changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) Evolutions for EU28, DE and HR are for the period 2010-2013; Iv) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious. Apart from overall housing costs, as much as 11% of EU28 citizens cannot keep their homes adequately warm, with above 20% in BG, EL, LT, MT, PT, LV and CY. The EU28 average is 24% for those below the poverty line, and beyond BG (69.7%), CY (51%), EL (48.4%), PT (44.6%) and IT (40.1%), figures also stand at over 30% in HU, LV, LT and MT22. In several countries demand for housing allowances and social housing has grown in recent years as reported by Member States and stakeholders. The number of people on waiting lists for social housing keeps growing in many EU countries. According to UK government data, there were about 1.37 million households waiting for social housing in England in April 201423. This is an estimated increase by 30% since 1997. In France, the number of applicants for social housing reached a total of around 1.7 million applicants in 201324. The need for local authority housing in 22 EU SILC data 23 Department for Communities and Local Government (2014) Live tables on rents, lettings and tenancies (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-rents-lettings-and-tenancies) 24 Data from the National registration system (Systeme national d'enregistrement - SNE) of the housing ministry, as reported in Union Sociale pour l'Habitat (2013) Les demandeurs de logement social - fiche thematique. Note there is a break for 2013 since the source is no longer the previously used ENL (Enquête Nationale Logement) but the SNE (Système national d‘enregistrement). 75 Ireland has increased by 74% since 2008 (from about 56,000 applicants to 98,000) 25. The need seems to be the most critical in capital and global cities where the housing markets are heated. There were close to 540,000 households registered on the waiting lists in greater Paris (Ile-deFrance) in 2013, and 255,729 in greater London in April 201426. In LT, the number of families entitled to social housing has been constantly increasing between 2008 and 2012 (in 2012 it was 33% higher than in 2008), and multiplied by 3.4 times between 2004 and 2012. However, only a small share of the demand is satisfied, so, in 2012 only a 3.4% of the entitled families had access to renting in municipal social housing. In LV, the number of housing benefits' recipients increased between 2009 and 2012, with the number of housing benefit recipients 38% higher than in 2009. In FI, the number of recipients (households) of general housing allowances has increased in the 2009-2013 period, so that in October 2013 it was 31.8% higher than in January 2009. The rise between October 2012 and October 2013 was 6.9%. Also the number of applicants for social rental housing increased between 2008 and 2012 in FI, reaching over 100,000 applicants waiting for an apartment in 2012. In FR, the total number of beneficiaries of housing allowances kept rather stable during the 2009-2011 period, and similar to the 2000 level. The amount of such benefits has however been increasing every year since 2006. The highest annual increase during the 2000-2011 period was in 2008, when it grew by 7.2% with respect to the previous year. Between 2010 and 2011, the total amount of housing benefits (in euro) grew by 3.3%. In PL, the total number of housing allowances paid out in 2012 was 0.7% higher than in 2011, while the total amount paid as housing allowances rose by 5.2% as compared to the 2011 amount27. Regarding the ability of households to pay back their mortgages, housing loans or pay their utility bills, EU SILC data for 2013 shows an EU-28 average of 4.1% of the population in arrears on mortgage and rent payments and 10% among the poorer segment of the population, with huge differences among Member States. Among those with an income below 60% of the median income, EL has the highest percentage (25.1%) in Europe of people in arrears on rents or mortgage payment, followed by CZ, FR and HU with values above 16%, and this percentage has been increasing. In 2013, arrears on utilities stood at 10.1% for the entire population and 22.9% for the poorer segment of the population, with an average in the latter segment around 40% or more in Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Hungary and Romania28. However, a few countries (including EE, FR) reported an improvement in recent years. In EE between 2012 and 2013, both the absolute number of hopeless housing loan contracts and their share in the total volume of housing loan contracts decreased. In particular, 0.6% of housing loan contracts were hopeless loans by the end 25 Housing Agency (2011) Housing Needs Assessment 2011 (www.housing.ie) 26 Orna Rosenfeld (2014) Social Housing in the UNECE: Models, Trends and Challenges. Presentation at the 75th session of the Committee on Housing and Land Management, Geneva, 8 - 9 October 2014 (http://www.unece.org) 27 Central Statistical Office, Local Data Bank (http://www.stat.gov.pl/bdlen/app/strona.html?p_name=indeks) 28 EU SILC data 76 of August 201329 In FR, 2.7% of owners were unable to pay for their loans in 2010, 0.9 pp lower than in 200930. In PT, however, the percentage of borrowers with overdue loans for housing increased from 5.5% of the total number of borrowers with credit granted in the second quarter of 2011 to 6.2% in the second quarter of 2013. This share is nevertheless lower than the 8.3% reached in the first quarter of 2009. In HU, 5.7% of the number of home loan contracts and 9.4% of the total credit value for home loans were rated as subprime (July 2013). In total, 23.4% of the home loan contracts and 34.8% of the total credit value were rated as not problem free. The 2012 European Quality of Life Survey shows a growing proportion of Europeans who report that they are afraid of losing their home because they can no longer afford it (from 4% in 2007 to 6% in 2011). The bulk of the increase comes from households living in larger, mortgaged accommodation31 Rising levels of evictions and foreclosures have negatively impacted on housing security. Preliminary findings of an EU-wide study on evictions and linked homelessness32 confirmed that very few Member States collect data on evictions on a regular basis, which makes analysis and comparisons difficult. Besides, there seem to be no simple pattern between welfare systems, level of crisis and trends of evictions. Nevertheless experts reported the following trends in evictions for the period 2010-2013. Relative stability, or low levels of changes in eviction levels in the observation period of plus/minus 10 %, were found in five countries (AT, BE, EE, FI, FR). A decrease of more than 10 % was recorded in six Member States (HR, CZ, DK, LT, PT and SE). An increase of more than 10 % was observed in five countries (BG, CY, IE, LV, NL), with a particularly sharp increase of more than 100% in IE, NL and LV. In seven countries, however, the data show opposing trends for different indicators (DE, EL, HU, PL, SI, ES and UK). In most of these latter countries opposite trends were observed, and only in EL and IT did both available indicators show an increase, although one was at a moderate level of less than 10 %. The above eviction study33 also disclosed that more men than women are affected and that the bulk of adults evicted were between 25 and 65 years old. There seems to be a high proportion of single persons and lone parents (especially mothers) among those evicted and only a low percentage of households have income from regular work. All Member States report unemployment and household financial instability as major risk factors, but individual 29 Source: Bank of Estonia. (2013). Lending Review. February 2013. http://www.eestipank.ee/en/publication/lendingreview/2013/lending-review-february-2013 30 Source: Insee, SRCV 2007-2010, from Commissariat général au développement durable (2013), "L'état du logement en 2011". 31 Source Eurofound (2012), Third European Quality of Life Survey – Quality of life in Europe: Overview Report. 32 VT/2013/056 EC Pilot Project on Promoting protection of the right to housing – Homelessness prevention in the context of evictions. Final results are foreseen by mid-2015. 33 Idem 77 vulnerabilities, complex needs, family breakdown, often in combination with financial difficulties, also trigger evictions and foreclosures. In Central and Eastern Europe, general poverty problems, weak social protection systems, both amongst working poor and people on subsistence benefits, the lack of savings and utility arrears seem to play a greater role. There seems to be a clear pathway from evictions to homelessness. Where evidence exists, it shows that 1 in 4 evicted people may be in a homelessness situation a while after an eviction – such as couch surfing, shelter use or rough sleeping- and about 20-50 % of homeless people (in different Member States) stated that an eviction was an important cause why they became homeless over a longer period. Box 8. Recent trends in homelessness in Europe Though comparable data on homelessness at EU level are still scarce, general trends in homelessness have been analysed in the Social Investment Package (SIP), notably in the SIP Staff Working Document on Confronting Homelessness in the European Union34. Besides, data were provided by the Social Protection Committee in 201235, and by the EU-level homelessness network FEANTSA in a monitoring report from 201236 and in their very recent preliminary report on the extent and profile of homelessness37. Some Member States also provided data on primary and secondary homelessness through the 2011 census38, of varied quality, however. Data confirmed a sharp increase in overall homelessness levels in the majority of Member States, first and foremost impacting capitals and big cities. A higher risk of homelessness was identified among young people, families, women or disadvantaged Roma or other ethnic minorities. Analysis also revealed that homelessness is often triggered by a combination of disadvantages, such as unemployment, poverty, family and relationship breakdowns, health and addiction problems, the lack of integration support after leaving institutions and a lack of affordable housing. In AT, the number of persons registered over the course of a year as homeless increased by 8% between 2008 and 2010, reaching 12,266 people39. In DK, there has been a total increase in homelessness of 16% over the past four years, rising from 4,998 in 2009 to 5,820 persons in 34 Commission Staff Working Document SWD(2013)42 final on Confronting Homelessness in the European Union, as part of the Social Investment Package http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1061&langId=en 35 SPC (2012) Social Europe Current challenges and the way forward: Annual Report of the Social Protection Committee , available at http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=738&langId=fr&pubId=7405 36 FEANTSA (2012) On the Way Home? FEANTSA Monitoring Report on Homelessness and Homeless Policies in Europe , available at: http://www.feantsa.org/spip.php?article854&lang=en 37 FEANTSA Report on "Extent and Profile of Homelessness in European Member States. A statistical update". EOH Comparative Studies on Homelessness (to be published in 2015). The report covers 15 Member States. 38 https://ec.europa.eu/CensusHub2/ 39 Federal Ministry of Labour, Consumer Affairs and Social Protection Social Report 2011 - 2012: Analysis Section (translated into English), available at: http://www.bmask.gv.at/site/Soziales/Allgemeine_Sozialpolitik/Sozialberichte/Sozialbericht_2011_2012 78 201340. In FR, the national statistics institute (INSEE) reports that approximately 141 500 people were homeless in metropolitan France in 2012. Compared to 2001 this represents an increase of 44% in cities of at least 20,000 inhabitants.41 In London, the number of households accepted as being owed a main homelessness duty was 4,340 – a decrease of 2% from 4,420 during the same quarter a year earlier42. However, in England, between 1 July and 30 September 2014, local authorities accepted 13,900 households as being owed a main homelessness duty. This is a 4% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Statistics produced by Caritas Spain show that the number of homeless people using their services increased by 24% in the period between 2007 and 201143. According to the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) spending in centres which work with homeless people rose by 39% in the period 2006-201244. Besides, another survey from INE shows that centres for homeless persons received 22,930 homeless persons in 2012. This compared to 21,900 homeless persons in 2005, representing an increase of 4.8%. In LV, the number of clients in municipal shelters increased between 2009 and 2011, and then reduced in the last year (between 2011 and 2012). In 2012, the number of clients in municipal shelters was a 65.8% higher than in 2009. In LT, the total number of occupiers of shelters for homeless has increased by 16% between 2009 and 2011. In EE, the lack of proper housing was the main reason for using shelter services for 38% of its users in 2012, 8pp higher than the percentage of users reporting lack of proper housing as their main reason to use such services in 200845. In FI, the number of homeless families has increased in the 2008-2012 period, so that in 2012 there were 49.2% more homeless families than in 2008. At the same time, the number of homeless individuals living outdoors, in overnight shelters, temporary accommodation or in institutions has decreased, so that in 2012 there were 35% less individuals in this situation, compared to their number in 200846. In 2011, 0.4% of the population in CY lived in either improvised housing units or other housing units not built for habitation purposes47. In NL, a total of 17,500 homeless people were estimated at the reference date of 1 January 2009 by the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics and national estimates confirmed a 17 % increase of homelessness between 2010 and 2012. In RO, a total of 2,429 persons in 2012 were assisted in day or night shelters, either public or managed by NGOs. In 40 Benjaminsen, L. & Lauritzen, H. (2013), Hjemløshed i Danmark 2013. National kortlægning. [Homelessness in Denmark 2013. National mapping], Copenhagen, SFI. 41 Insee (2013) L‘hébergement des sans-domicile en 2012 Des modes d‘hébergement différents selon les situations familiales, available at : http://www.insee.fr/fr/ffc/ipweb/ip1455/ip1455.pdf 42 Department for Communities and Local Government, Statutory Homelessness: July to September 2014 England, Ref:ISBN: 978-1-4098-4424-2, available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statutory-homelessness-inengland-july-to-september-2014Department 43 Caritas Española (2012) ―Acompañándo…nos‖. Mirada, acción y propuestas de Cáritas con personas que están sin hogar. 44 INE (2013), Survey on Homeless http://www.ine.es/en/prensa/np761_en.pdf Persons 45 Source: Ministry of Social Affairs 46 Source: Housing Finance and Development Centre of Finland 47 Source: Population Census 2011, CYSTAT 79 Results preview. Year 2012 , available at: SE, homelessness has grown by 29 % among rough sleepers, shelter users, hostels and homeless people in institutions between 2005 (6,600) and 2011 (8,500). The particularly dramatic social impact of the crisis in some countries, such as EL, means that levels of homelessness have risen very dramatically. Service providers estimate that Greece‘s homeless population rose by 25% between 2009 and 2011 when it reached 20,000 48 The large number of households threatened by foreclosure or eviction means that the proportion of the population at risk of homelessness has increased. It is estimated that approximately 300.000 families risk losing their homes if the moratorium on repossessions would be lifted next year. Most homeless people are not in employment, as confirmed by experts49, though the extent to which homeless people are engaged in paid work varies considerably across Member States, from less than 5% in some countries to as much as 25% in others. 35% of homeless people in HU were in casual or regular work, as were 28% of homeless people in IT and 24% in FR 50. By contrast, in IE, only 8% of homeless people were employed, with only 5% working in PL and SE. The largest cohort of homeless people is between 30 and 49 years old, but an estimated 20-30% of the whole homeless population is composed of younger people between 18 and 29 years old (e.g. FR: 26%50, NL: 23%). Increasing homelessness amongst young people is emerging as a cause for concern in several Member States. For example, in DK, there has been an increase in youth homelessness of 80% or from 633 persons in 2009 to 1,138 persons in 201351. Similarly, there is a trend of increased homelessness amongst families in various Member States. According to INSEE, 25% of homeless people in France are accompanied by children52. In HU and PL, older people are found to be a considerable part of the homeless population (17% and 22% aged 60 or over respectively), but they were unlikely to be homeless in some other Member States, such as IE and DK (3% over 65 and 5% over 60 respectively). These variations may be linked to differences in the levels of social protection and pensions for poor and vulnerable people over retirement age in different welfare systems. In most Member States, men predominate among homeless people, accounting for about 75-85% of the whole homeless population against the proportion of women which stands at only about 15-25%. Some evidence suggests that homeless women may have a greater tendency to use informal arrangements with friends, family and acquaintances, avoiding living rough and entering homelessness services. This may mean that homeless women are less likely to be represented in the population recorded by homelessness services‘ administrative data. Women whose homelessness is linked to domestic/gender based violence, using refuges, shelters and other domestic violence services, may not be classified as using ‗homeless‘ services, which may again mean the extent of women‘s homelessness is undercounted. In some Member States, including for example CZ, DK, IE or UK, women account for a larger share among the young homeless. 48 FEANTSA (2012) Op Cit. 49 FEANTSA (2015) Op Cit. 50 Based on figures for cities with 20,000 inhabitants or more. 51 Benjaminsen, L. & Lauritzen, H. (2013), Hjemløshed i Danmark 2013. National kortlægning. [Homelessness in Denmark 2013. National mapping], Copenhagen, SFI. 52 INSEE Op Cit. 80 Though evidence is variable in the EU, it seems that repeated and long-term homeless people, with high rates of severe mental illness and problematic drug and alcohol use, account for only a relatively small portion of the homeless population, as was reported in DK, FI, IE and, based on partial data, in the UK53. A recent EU-study highlighted the impact of migration on destitution and homelessness54, calling attention to the fact that EU mobile workers may face obstacles in accessing housing or social services/benefits due to not having an address. Experts55 found that in DK, 17% of homeless people had migrated to Denmark or had parents who were migrants. Black British people are overrepresented among homeless people helped under English homelessness laws (14.5% of the people in the system, 3.5% of the population). New migrants, including economic migrants from the Eastern EU, sometimes appeared to be heavily represented among people living rough in the Northern EU, e.g. in Berlin, Dublin, London or Paris. An increased number of homeless immigrants were reported, particularly in France and Spain. In a number of Central and Eastern European countries, Roma people are overrepresented among populations who are very badly housed and in living situations that might be defined as homeless, but are not always counted as being homeless. This administrative distinction occurs elsewhere in the EU; the UK is also not recording ‗traveller‘ populations, including Roma, who live permanently in mobile homes as being homeless on the basis that it is a chosen lifestyle. A particular challenge is to provide for undocumented migrants, who usually do not have legal access to homelessness services. The SPC highlighted in 2012 that integrated strategies to tackle homelessness, whilst lacking in many instances, had been developed by a growing number of Member States and regions. This trend seems to continue. Several new strategies have been announced (e.g. LU, CZ and ES). Besides, for the permanent re-housing of long-term homeless people with complex needs, Housing First56 programmes have been launched e.g. in BE, DK and FI. Some national/regional strategies have achieved impressive results in reducing homelessness (e.g. Scotland, Netherlands, Finland (long-term homelessness)). Robust homelessness strategies may also have helped to limit increases in homelessness due to structural factors (e.g. Ireland, Denmark (where those municipalities implementing the national strategy experienced much lower increases than others). Full implementation, monitoring and the allocation of adequate resources are required for integrated homeless strategies to succeed. Some of the strategies which have been announced in recent years have yet to be implemented and are therefore unable to support progress to date. Among the factors influencing access to housing are credit availability and price levels. During the last years, trends in housing credit seem to vary between countries. In some countries (HU, CY, PT, HR), availability of housing credit has decreased. For example, in HU, both the number of 53 54 FEANTSA (2015) Op. Cit. European Commission study on "Mobility, Migration and Destitution in the European Union". Regioplan, March 2014 55 FEANTSA Report on "Extent and Profile of Homelessness in European Member States. A statistical update". EOH Comparative Studies on Homelessness (to be published in 2015). The report covers 15 Member States. 56 "Housing First Europe" project, financed from PROGRESS http://www.socialstyrelsen.dk/housingfirsteurope 81 permitted housing credits (contracts) and its volume (in HUF) decreased dramatically between 2008 and 2009, by 61.5% and 66.1% respectively. In 2012, the number of permitted housing credits was a further 3.6% lower than in 2009, and the volume of housing credits was 35.8% lower than in 2009. In CY, bank loans to households for house purchase rose annually in the Q1 2008 to February 2013 period, and then started to reduce as from Q1 2013. In Q3 2013 they were 4.5% lower than in the previous one-year period.57According to the latest CBC Bank Lending Survey (July 2013), banks have tightened credit standards concerning loans to households for house purchase. In Q3 2013, 53.4% of total loans to the household sector were housing loans, a share rather stable since Q4 201058. In PT, the increasing trend in housing credit since 2009 reversed as from 2011. Between Q1 2011 and Q2 2013, the nominal amount of loans granted to private individuals for housing declined by 6.6%. At the same time, the number of private borrowers for housing decreased by 3.8% between Q2 2011 and Q2 2013. In FR, loans for housing decreased between 2011 and 2012 (22.8% less for old housing, and a 17% reduction for new housing). The evolution of households' rate of property indebtedness slowed in 2011, increasing by 3.4% with respect to the 2010 indebtedness rate, after having doubled in the 2000-2011 period (it was at 64% of households' disposable income in 2011)59. In HR, housing loans dropped slightly at a rate of about 1% a year. An opposite upward trend is observed in EE, where, after almost four years of decline, the volume of new housing loans increased by 16% in 2012, as compared to their volume in 201160. In PL, 17% of households used financing for the purchase of a house or apartment in 2013, compared to 14% in 201161. As regards price evolution, data from the European Mortgage Federation62 show considerable changes in housing prices between 2009 and 2012. In some domestic markets, nominal house prices have followed a positive trend, while in some others prices have moved along a downward path. As a result, in Q4 2012, prices were above their Q2 2009 levels in Belgium (+15%), the UK (+11.5%), Sweden (+9.1%) and Germany (+7.9%); by contrast, they had declined in Portugal (1.5%), Denmark (-6.4%), the Netherlands (-13.4%), Hungary (-15.9%), Spain (-20.3%) and Ireland (-33.7%). In real terms, compared with Q2 2009, house prices increased by 7.0% in Belgium, 5.3% in France, 4.4%, in Sweden, 1.3% in Germany and remained stable in the UK. They contracted by 7.2% in Portugal, 11.6% in Denmark, 18.2% in the Netherlands, 26.0% in Spain, 26.5% in Hungary and 33.7% in Ireland. 57 Source: Central Bank of Cyprus 58 Source: Central Bank of Cyprus 59 Source: Insee, Banque de France, from Commissariat général au développement durable (2013), "L'état du logement en 2011" 60 Bank of Estonia. (2013). Lending Review. February 2013. http://www.eestipank.ee/en/publication/lendingreview/2013/lending-review-february-2013 61 Source: Social Diagnosis 2013 62 Data in the paragraph are based on the Hypostat 2013 report of the European Mortgage Federation http://www.hypo.org/Content/Default.asp?PageID=524 82 Among the factors behind the national housing price dynamics, disposable income per capita and the average construction cost for a new dwelling seem to have played a significant role between 2002 and 2012. The former relates to demand and tends to be significantly correlated with the observed house price variations in the EU. On the supply side, construction costs might have also influenced nominal house prices, through the new housing segment. Member States reported that in FR, house prices doubled between 2000 and 2008, reduced during the year 2008-beginning of 2009, but grew again during 2009 and 2010 to reach the price levels before the start of the decline in 200863. House prices in France continued to rise to the third quarter of 2011, but decreased afterwards. At the last quarter of 2013, house prices had come back to approximately the same level as the last quarter of 2010 (INSEE). In PL, the average price per square metre increased sharply between 2005 and 2007, and continued an upward trend until 2010, when it seemed to stabilise, and then started reducing as from 2011. Hence, the average price of one square metre in Q2 2013 was 12.3% lower than its Q1 2010 level, which was, in turn, 2.3 times the Q1 2005 average price64. Real interest rates on loans are also rising, and reached 5% in 2013 Q1, the highest level since 200565. Prices of old sold apartments have also been increasing in FI during the 2009-2013 period, so that in Q2 2013 prices per square meter in the capital region were 22.8% higher than in Q2 2009, while in other parts of FI they were a 12.8% higher than in Q2 2009. The rents for apartments have also increased in the 2009-2012 period. In the capital region, the rents for new tenancies increased by about 4% per year and elsewhere in FI by about 3% per year66. However, in CY, following the high increases in housing prices that were recorded during the previous decade due to the real estate sector bubble, a gradual correction has been in progress since 2009. In particular, the residential property price index has been continuously declining since Q1 2009 (except for a period of stagnation in the first two quarters of 2010). In Q3 2013 it had declined at an annual rate of 7.2%. At the same time, interest rates for housing loans remained relatively high, between 5-5.5% in the Q3 2010-Q3 2013 period67. As regards to other indicators of activity in the housing market, in EE, the construction sector started showing signs of recovery in 201168. The number of transactions in the apartment market increased by 15% in Q2 2013, as compared to the previous year69. And while the number of use permits for new residential housing issued in Q2 2013 was at the same level as in 2012, the 63 Source: indice Insee-Notaires, from Clévenot M (2011) "Les prix immobiliers en France: une évolution singulière". 64 Source: ZBP (the Polish Bank Association) 65 Source: National Polish Bank 66 Source: Statistics Finland 67 Source: Central Bank of Cyprus 68 Source: Statistics Estonia. (2012). Economic and Social Overview. Statistical Yearbook of Estonia, 2012. http://www.stat.ee/publication-download-pdf?publication_id=29873 69 Source: Bank of Estonia. (2013). Financial Stability Review 2/2013. http://www.eestipank.ee/en/publication/financialstability-review/2013/financial-stability-review-22013 83 number of building permits issued in Q2 2013 was 13% higher than in the previous year70. In SE, a housing shortage is reported in 126 of the 290 municipalities, especially within the rental market71. 2.15 Trends in the take-up of selected social benefits The prolonged crisis has led to an increased dependence on social transfers in some Member States. The SPC started an ad-hoc collection of administrative data on benefit recipients for different social schemes (unemployment, social assistance, early retirement and disability) in order to get timelier information on the pressure on social protection systems in the context of the economic crisis. In 2014 the SPC continued with this data collection which is very valuable for its timeliness, but needs to be assessed with due caution as it does not offer cross-country comparability due to the diversity of concepts and underlying definitions. The following sections analyse the major trends registered in the year 2014 comparing to 2013 and also the general developments since the beginning of the crisis (2008). (Individual country trends regarding the number of benefit recipients can be found in the country profiles section of this report.) Contrary to last year, and although only indicative, the trends observed illustrate that the pressure on social security systems has eased somewhat in 2014 across many EU Member States, although the number of benefit recipients nevertheless remains historically high in many countries. 2.16 Signs of more positive trends emerging regarding the number of unemployment benefit recipients With the slight improvement in the labour market situation in the EU and declines in unemployment levels in many Member States over the last year or so, there has been a slight easing in the pressure on unemployment benefit schemes across much of the EU. In 2014 around 2/3 of Member States recorded a persistent decrease in the number of unemployment benefit recipients as compared to 2013, generally mirroring the positive developments in the unemployment rate. Persistent increases were only registered in 4 countries (AT, FI, LV and NL). 70 Source: Bank of Estonia. (2013). Financial Stability Review 2/2013. http://www.eestipank.ee/en/publication/financialstability-review/2013/financial-stability-review-22013 71 Source: National Board of Housing, Building and Planning, 2013 (http://www.boverket.se/Boende/Analys-avbostadsmarknaden/Bostadsmarknadsenkaten-2013/Laget-pa-bostadsmarknaden/Vilken-typ-av-bostader-ar-det-bristpa/ 84 2.17 Countries with downward trends in both unemployment benefit recipients and social assistance benefit recipients Overall, nine countries reported decreasing numbers of beneficiaries on both unemployment benefit and social assistance schemes. These included countries which have seen relatively stronger recoveries in their labour markets over 2014, including EE, ES, IE, PT, SK and the UK, as well as DK, LT and SE. Figure 40: Evolution of the number of benefit recipients and number of unemployed (in 1000) – the example of the UK Source: Data on number of unemployed from Eurostat (ILO definition, in 1000 persons, seasonally adjusted); data on number of benefit recipients collected from Member States through the SPC delegates 85 Figure 41: Evolution of the number of benefit recipients and number of unemployed (in 1000) – the example of IE Source: Data on number of unemployed from Eurostat (ILO definition, in 1000 persons, seasonally adjusted); data on number of benefit recipients collected from Member States through the SPC delegates 2.18 Potential continued gaps in social benefits' coverage in some Member States Notwithstanding the very latest developments, with the deterioration in the employment situation in many Member States in the years since the crisis hit and the growing number of unemployed and their longer stay in unemployment, more people are in need of social transfers. In some Member States, the growth in unemployment has not always been matched by similar trends in benefit recipients which may lead to a potential lack of social benefits coverage. This has especially been the case in countries such as EL and CY, and the mis-match remains substantial despite the recent slight easing in unemployment levels in these Member States. (However, in CY the decrease in take up of public assistance can be to some extent explained by a change in legislation for the creation of a lone parent benefit which are given by another service and as such are not shown in the figures of public assistance.) Similar mismatches between rising unemployment trends and benefit recipient levels since the crisis also seem to be present in BG, HR, SI, and to some extent in PT. 86 Figure 42: Evolution of the number of benefit recipients and number of unemployed (in 1000) – the example of EL Source: Data on number of unemployed from Eurostat (ILO definition, in 1000 persons, seasonally adjusted); data on number of benefit recipients collected from Member States through the SPC delegates Figure 43: Evolution of the number of benefit recipients and number of unemployed (in 1000) – the example of CY Source: Data on number of unemployed from Eurostat (ILO definition, in 1000 persons, seasonally adjusted); data on number of benefit recipients collected from Member States through the SPC delegates 87 2.19 More mixed developments in terms of the number of benefit recipients from social assistance schemes While a large majority of Member States recorded a persistent decrease in the number of unemployment benefit recipients as compared to 2013, the picture with regard to the number of recipients of social assistance was more mixed. In 2014 around half of Member States recorded a persistent decrease in the number of social assistance benefit recipients as compared to 2013, while around a third recorded continued increases. Among the latter, some countries are showing a shift from the use of unemployment benefit towards increasing social assistance. For example, despite little change in the level of unemployment over the last year, Romania saw a decrease in unemployment beneficiaries together with an increase in social assistance recipients. This could suggest there is movement from unemployment benefits to social assistance schemes perhaps due to rising long-term unemployment or shortened lengths of unemployment benefit receipt. This movement increases pressure on social protection systems. Figure 44: Evolution of the number of benefit recipients and number of unemployed (in 1000) – the example of RO Source: Data on number of unemployed from Eurostat (ILO definition, in 1000 persons, seasonally adjusted); data on number of benefit recipients collected from Member States through the SPC delegates 88 3. Examining the 2013 social trends to watch In last year‘s annual report, the Social Protection Performance Monitor (SPPM) identified four main trends to watch for 2013 – the rise in income inequality, the increase in the depth of poverty, the worsening situation in long-term labour market exclusion and the rising exclusion of youth (SPC, 2013). The SPC undertook in-depth thematic reviews on the situation and policy measures tackling depth of poverty, youth exclusion and long-term labour market exclusion in the second half of 2014 and early 2015. The following thematic sections give a summary of these reviews and provide some key conclusions in terms of the effectiveness of policy measures in addressing these challenges. The thematic review on the trend to watch regarding income inequality will be conducted in 2015. 3.1 Key messages from the thematic in-depth reviews Based on the thematic reviews which the SPC undertook on the 2013 social trends to watch – youth exclusion, long-term exclusion from the labour markets, and depth of poverty, the following main policy conclusions are to be considered: In the context of high and persistent unemployment among young people and the related risks of youth exclusion, social protection systems have an important role to play in supporting labour market integration and helping young people to bridge difficult periods of transition from education and training to work and employment of progressively higher quality. The in-depth review made clear that further exchange on the efficiency and effectiveness of the different approaches is needed. The long-term unemployed form a heterogeneous group with specific and different obstacles such as health concerns, difficulty in reconciling work and family life, social problems, or lack of skills. Alongside labour supply measures, understanding the profile of the target population is crucial to effectively implement policies and support their sustainable re-integration into the labour market. Measures need to take a comprehensive approach, tailored around individual needs in order to be effective, including targeted activation, adequate income support and enabling services. Drivers behind severe poverty and social exclusion are multiple. They can vary across an individual's life-cycle and are closely related to the wider economic and labour market context. Comprehensive, needs-driven, preventive and individualised approaches can contribute to avoiding and alleviating poverty and social exclusion in an effective and sustainable manner. Social investments are part and parcel of such approaches by targeting specific needs arising across the life-cycle, ensuring adequate income support and providing access to quality enabling services, supporting individuals in critical transitions. 89 3.2 Social protection and youth exclusion in the EU 3.2.1 Introduction The social and economic situation of young people in Europe has worsened during the last years: youth unemployment reached record high levels in 2013, the number of young people disengaged from employment, education and training has increased and more young people experience poverty and social exclusion. While unemployment rates in Europe start to decrease, youth unemployment remains high and many young people remain in low paid, low quality jobs often of involuntary temporary nature. Young people seem not to profit from first signs of economic recovery. Young people are among those most severely affected by the crisis. Already pre-existing structural disadvantages on the labour market and changed patterns of transitions from education to work have weakened the social situation of young people and increased their vulnerability. Nowadays, the risk-of-poverty rate of young people is the highest among all age groups; the crisis accelerated trends which were visible already before 2008. Youth exclusion was identified by the SPC as one of the social trends to watch for 2013 and as such was chosen as a subject to a thematic review in the course of the second half of 201472. While the major focus of the discussion related to the youth unemployment problem in Europe has been on what employment policies can do, the implications for social protection systems are also considerable and need due attention. This thematic review is an exploratory discussion on this subject, building on the thematic focus of the 2014 National Social Reports, and considering the fact that only few Member States have started to experiment with comprehensive approaches to address the challenges of young people nowadays. The present note aims at providing a brief overview of the current situation, focusing on young people between 15 and 29 years old in order to cover the period marked by the transition from education to work, finding a first more permanent employment and gaining independence from parents. As far as possible, it will outline policy responses in Member States and raise attention to the existing gaps in the social protection of young people, using the information received through the thematic reporting in the context of the 2014 National Social Reports. 72 We would like to especially thank Eurofound for their contribution to this background paper. SPC (2014) Social Europe: Many ways, one objective. Annual report of the Social Protection Committee on the social situation in the European Union (2013) http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=738&langId=en&pubId=7695&type=2&furtherPubs=yes 90 3.2.2 Recent trends and future challenges Looking at a set of key social and employment indicators (including SPPM indicators)73 for young people provides a rather daunting picture: The unemployment rate of young people between 15 and 29 years in the EU increased from 12 % in 2008 to 18.7 % in 2013. The unemployment rate for the 18-24 year olds was with 23.3 % in 2013 even higher. The youth unemployment ratio increased from 7.0 % in 2008 to 10.6 % in 2013 (age group 15-29)74. Overall, there are nearly 7 million young people less in employment today compared to 200875. The number of young people (15-29) not in employment, education or training increased from 13 % in 2008 to 15.9 % in 2013. The rates of early school leavers76 decreased at the same time from 14.7 % in 2008 to 11.9 % in 2013, but although it represents good progress compared to 17% in the early 2000s, there is much reason to assume that the reduction of early school leaving is at least partly an effect of the lack of employment opportunities for young people. The OECD estimates that 30-40% of early school leavers risk facing persistent difficulties in accessing stable employment, with risks of marginalisation over time. 29.7 % of young people aged 15-29 were at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2012, compared with 26.2 % in 200877. Poverty rates for young people are higher than poverty rates for the total population (24.5 % in 2013). They also depend on the living situation of young people: young people not living anymore with their parents are more exposed to the risk of poverty and social exclusion (27.6 % vs. 33.1 % in 2012).78 The deterioration of their social and employment situation is perceived as an overall marginalisation of young people. Independently from their own personal social and economic 73 Please note that the SPPM focusses on young people from 18-24; this paper has widened the perspective to provide a more comprehensive view on the situation of young people in Europe. More detailed data are annexed to this paper. 74 The youth unemployment rate is the number of those unemployed (15-29) divided by the total number of young people (15-29) in the labour market (employed plus unemployed). The youth unemployment ratio divides the number of unemployed young people (15-29) by the total population aged 15 to 29. It thus gives an unemployment-to-population measure. The size of the youth labour market (i.e. the size of the young labour force) does not trigger effects in the youth unemployment ratio, contrary to the unemployment rate. 75 Eurostat, yth_empl_010, accessed 04.09.2014 76 Early school leavers are defined as persons aged 18 to 24 fulfilling the following two conditions: (1) the highest level of education or training attained is ISCED 0, 1, 2 or 3c short, (2) no education or training has been received in the four weeks preceding the survey. The reference group to calculate the early school leaving rate consists of the total population of the same age group (18 to 24). All measurements come from the EU Labour Force Survey (LFS). 77 Data available for EU27 only 78 Eurostat, yth_incl_010 and yth_incl_030, accessed 23.10.2014; no data available for 2013 91 situation, more than 50 % of young people, aged 16 to 30, in the EU have the feeling that young people have been marginalised in their country as a result of the economic crisis79. Before looking at social protection of young people in more detail, the paper will summarise the main factors contributing to the vulnerability of young people and hinting to the underlying structural challenges in the social protection of young people. Figure 45: EU 28 trends in key youth exclusion indicators, 15-29 age-group Source: Eurostat (accessed 21.02.2014), indicators: yth_incl_010, yth_empl_100, yth_empl_120, yth_empl_150, age group 15-29; Eurofound calculations 3.2.3 Youth employment Country differences in youth unemployment are large, ranging from 48.7 % in Greece and 42.4 % in Spain to 7.3 % in Germany or 8 % in Austria. Many countries with high youth unemployment rates face also above average long-term unemployment rates among young people and a high number of young people being neither in employment, nor education or training (NEET). Both indicators underline the degree to which labour markets are under pressure and cannot provide employment to young people. Nevertheless, also structural factors may contribute to high longterm unemployment or inactivity of young people. Long-term unemployment: 7.1 % of the 15 to 29 year olds in the EU were unemployed for more than one year. Rates were particularly high in Greece (29.1 %), Croatia (18.4 %), and Spain (17.8 %). The countries facing high rates of long-term unemployment among young people were also confronted with high rates of long-term unemployment for other age 79 Flash barometer of the European Parliament (EP EB 395), European Youth in 2014, analytical synthesis, p.7 92 groups. But across all European countries, young people are significantly more affected by spells of long-term unemployment than the average population (5.1 % in 2013). Long-term unemployment for young people is often linked to the lack of qualifications and skills, especially for those below 18 years old80. But also young people aged 25-29 years (6.3% were long-term unemployed in 2013) are more affected by long-term unemployment than the overall population in working age. Variations between countries can be expected with increasing long-term unemployment rates also for better qualified young people in some European countries. Figure 46: Comparison of unemployment rates for youth and the total population Source: Eurostat (LFS) Not in employment, education or training: 15.9 % of all young people aged 15 to 29 were in 2013 neither in employment, education nor training. Highest rates were recorded by Greece (28.5 %), Bulgaria (25.7 %) and Spain (22.5 %). With regard to gender, education level, previous work experiences and skills, there are big variations between countries. These differences are strongly linked to the specific labour market conditions of young people. A recent Eurofound study on NEETs pointed out that "young people with low levels of education are three times more likely to be NEET than those with tertiary education. Young people with immigration background are 70% more likely to become NEET than nationals. And young people suffering from some kind of disability or health issue are 40% more likely to be NEET than those in 80 See: Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2012, p.84 93 good health." In addition, females are more likely than males to be NEET (in 2013 13.9% for males vs. 17.7 % for females).81 Figure 47: NEETs rates by gender, 2013 35 Males 30 Females Total % of 15-29 year olds 25 20 15 10 IT EL ES BG HR CY SK RO IE PT PL LV EU28 BE EE UK FR SI LT CZ FI MT AT DE SE LU DK NL 0 HU 5 Source: Eurostat (LFS) Young people are over-represented in temporary and part-time work with less on-the-job training, lower wage levels and poorer long-term employment and career prospects. In 2013, 31.5 % of young employees (15 to 29) were working on a temporary contract and 32.4 % part-time. Countries with the highest levels of temporary work among young people were in 2013 Poland (50.6 %), Spain (49.3 %) and Slovenia (48.6 %). But also in Portugal, the Netherlands, Germany and France more than one third of the 15 to 29 years old have only temporary work contracts. While this might be less problematic in periods of transition from education or training to work, temporary work is also prominent among young people above 24 years old. In Spain, Poland, and Portugal, more than 40% of all 25 – 29 year olds work on a temporary contract, affecting also those having finished their education since several years and wanting to start an independent life.82 Countries with the highest level of part-time work among young people in 2013 were the Netherlands (63.2%), Germany (51.2 %), and Sweden (36.7 %). Here many young people combine education or training with employment and work voluntarily part-time. In the 81 Eurofound (2012) NEETS – Young people not in employment, education or training, Luxembourg. 82 Eurostat, yth_empl_050, accessed 23.10.2014 94 Netherlands, Germany and Denmark more than 50 % of the young people working parttime indicated in 2013 that they are still in education or training. Nevertheless, one third of all young people in the EU working part-time indicated in 2013 that they work part-time involuntarily. Overall there is a worrying trend of more young people working parttime because of the unavailability of full-time employment: in 2008 29.6 % indicated this as a reason for working part-time, in 2013 already 34.2%.83 Recent data from OECD indicate that non-standard work can be a stepping stone to standard work contracts but young people seem to profit less from that than older employees, independent from their education level.84 Young people experience both structural and cyclical difficulties in entering the labour market. Structural difficulties are especially pronounced for those lacking sufficient qualifications and not having completed upper secondary education. But the crisis also increased the difficulties of those with medium or high level of qualifications. And it prolonged the time until young people can hope to enter into permanent or at least longer-term work contracts with wages sufficient to start an independent life. 3.2.4 Poverty and social exclusion of young people As a consequence of the precarious work situation of young people and the often difficult socioeconomic situation of their families, youth is nowadays the group most at risk of poverty and social exclusion (closely followed by children under 16 years of age). The contrast with older people aged 65 and older is particularly stark and the gap between both groups has increased in the majority of countries in recent years. Across the EU 27, the gap has widened from a 2.9 percentage point difference in 2008 to a 10.5 percentage point difference in 2012. Structural challenges such as limited access to the labour market and to social protection seem to determine the situation of young people and be responsible for the growing gap on risk of poverty and social exclusion as compared to other age groups. The concrete situation of young people varies strongly in relation to their access to labour market, level of education, living conditions and access to different types of benefits and services. OECD data show that the large majority of poor youth is in education or in employment. Youth poverty rates across countries are strongly associated with household composition and if young people live alone or with their parents85. More research is needed to identify the main triggers for increasing poverty rates especially among young people and in comparison to other age groups. 83 Eurostat, yth_empl_070, accessed 23.10.2014 84 Joint OECD-EU project: Jobs, inequalities and wages, 85 OECD (2013) Social policies for youth: Bridging the gap to independence, p.10. 95 Figure 48: Share of young people at risk of poverty or exclusion, 15-29 Source: Eurostat (accessed 04.09.2014), indicators: yth_incl_010, no data for HR for 2008. In-work poverty of young people has increased from 8.6% in 2008 to 9.5 in 2012; countries with highest rate of in-work poverty among young people were in 2012 Romania (20.9 %), Denmark (17.1 %) and Greece (14.4 %). These and also other countries faced increases in the in-work risk of poverty of young people during the last years due to the overall deterioration of working conditions of this age group. Figure 49: In-work at-risk-of-poverty-rate of young people (18-24 years old) 35 30 25 20 2008 15 2013 10 5 EU28 EU27 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 0 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) In addition, projects and measures targeted at the social inclusion of young people and especially of young people with multiple problems were affected by austerity measures. 16 Member States 96 reduced expenditure in education during 2008 and 2011, including cuts on the average investment in education per school student86. Also youth work was affected by budget cuts in many Member States. Cuts in public spending for youth work have often been accompanied by attempts to target it more to the needs of disadvantaged young people, in order to tackle the negative impacts of the crisis. This had a strong impact on the character of youth work with an increasing focus on fostering the employability of young people. More universal youth work, for all young people and looking more broadly at youth participation and civic engagement, struggles increasingly to get public funding87. Looking at the perceived social exclusion among young people completes this picture. The perceived social exclusion index is based on Eurofound‘s European Quality of Life Survey (EQLS). The index measures the extent to which young people actually feel excluded, based on responses to several questions88. In 2011, the lowest levels of perceived social exclusion were found among young people in Denmark, Germany, Austria and Finland and the highest in Cyprus, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania. In most Member States young people did not feel on average more socially excluded in 2011 than in 2007, but in some countries such as Cyprus, Sweden and Greece there has been a significant increase (see Figure 50). 86 Cuts in education expenditure were significant during this period in EE, IE, LV and HU as well as in BG, EL, IT and RO where spending levels in relation to the GDP were already low and have been cut further. DK, ES, CY, LT, PL, PT, SK and UK made cuts at some stage between 2008 and 2011 which is reflected in a reduction of education spending as a percentage of GDP in 2011. Education and Training Monitor 2013, p.14 (http://ec.europa.eu/education/lifelonglearningpolicy/progress_en.htm). 87 Working with young people: the value of youth work in the European Union, study commissioned by the European Commission 2014, p.102f (http://ec.europa.eu/youth/library/study/youth-work-report_en.pdf) 88 The perceived social exclusion index refers to the overall average score from responses to the four statements: ‗I feel left out of society‘, ‗Life has become so complicated today that I almost can‘t find my way‘, ‗I don‘t feel that the value of what I do is recognised by others‘, ‗Some people look down on me because of my job situation or income‘, where 1 = ‗strongly disagree‘ and 5 = ‗strongly agree‘. 97 Figure 50: Perceived social exclusion of young people by country, 2007 and 2011 Source: Eurofound, based on the EQLS social exclusion index Unemployment, poverty and social exclusion impact on the life of young people in many ways and often long-term. They limit access to education and training, to quality services and to housing. They reduce young people's opportunities to participate in public life, reduce self-esteem and subjective well-being and can lead to stigmatisation 3.2.5 RISK FACTORS Factors that increase the risk of poverty and social exclusion are multiple and some young people are more vulnerable than others. Amongst them are young people with migration background or from ethnic minority groups; Roma; those with lower educational levels; homeless or those at risk of homelessness and young people with health conditions or disabilities89. Migration: In 2012, 44% of the young people between 16 and 29, which were born abroad, were at risk of poverty and social exclusion, compared to 28.3 % among native young people 90. Young migrants face more difficulties and discrimination on the labour market; their unemployment rate 89 See EACEA (2013), Youth Social Exclusion and Lessons from Youth Work, Evidence from Literature and Survey, http://eacea.ec.europa.eu/youth/tools/documents/social_exclusion_and_youth_work.pdf accessed 22.02.2014) and EC (2012), Social Inclusion of youth on the margins of society, policy review and research results, Luxembourg, Publication Office of the European Union, http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/social-inclusion-of-youth_en.pdf (accessed 22.02.2014). 90 Eurostat, yth_incl_020, accessed 23.10.2014 98 is higher. In most countries they also have higher early school leaving rates; in some countries the rate of early school leavers among migrant youth is more than double the rate of native youth.91 Gender: In 2012, also the rate of young people at risk of poverty and social exclusion differed according to gender with more females at risk of poverty and social exclusion 92. It coincides also with the higher NEET rates for females compared to males (in 2013 13.9% for males vs. 17.7 % for females). The reasons for these differences are manifold (e.g. including care responsibilities for siblings or own children) and the diversity of NEETS has been reported frequently. In general, transition from education to work appears to be more complicated for young women than for young men, despite the fact that young women are often better educated, have lower rates of early school leaving and achieve better results in tests such as PISA. With regard to employment, trends have been partly reversed during the crisis, which affected men to a greater degree and the unemployment rates among men rose to a higher level than among women. This is most likely an illustration of the recession which had a biggest impact on sectors with predominantly male workforce. In November 2013 the EU 28 male youth unemployment reached 23.9% compared to female youth unemployment rate of 22.8% (Eurostat) Again there are some country difference with male unemployment rates higher in UK or Ireland and Mediterranean countries (except Spain) where females are more exposed to unemployment. Belgium, Malta or Netherlands present a more balanced situation. Education level and skills: Low levels of education (maximum lower secondary education93) correspond generally with higher unemployment rates. The unemployment rate for young people with only lower secondary education was of 30% in 2008, since 2008 it has increased by 10.5 percentage points. The unemployment rate for young people with upper secondary or higher education increased from 2008 till 2013 by 7.4 percentage points to 17.1%. However, since the onset of the crisis the higher level of education can no longer be seen as a protection against unemployment even though those with lowest education (primary education) were most hit, with most pronounced increases observed in Ireland, Greece and Spain. The unemployment rates of those with tertiary education are high in Greece, Spain, Romania, Portugal and Italy with the situation worsening during the crisis. In addition, the number of those with tertiary education that became unemployed increased from 5.5% in 2007 to 18% in Ireland. Rates remained stable in Belgium and France. It seems that the tertiary education is a strong protector against unemployment in Netherlands, but also Czech Republic, France and UK (Eurofound 2012). 91 Education and Training Monitor 2013 p.27 (http://ec.europa.eu/education/lifelong-learningpolicy/progress_en.htm). See also: Reducing early school leaving: Key messages and policy support. Final Report of the Thematic Working Group on Early School Leaving (in the context of Education and Training 2020), November 2013, http://ec.europa.eu/education/policy/strategic-framework/doc/esl-group-report_en.pdf 92 2012 AROPE for 15-29 years old: 29.7 % in total; 28.9% for males, 30.5 for females. 93 ISCED 1997 0-2 99 Skills mismatches account partly for the difficulties of highly educated young people to enter the labour market. Overall, vocational education systems with a strong component of work-based learning have been more successful in supporting young people in their transition from education and training to work. Furthermore participation in lifelong non-formal learning activities can also be an indicator of inclusion. 8.8% of young people aged 15-29 reported to take part in them in 2012. Again here, vast country differences exist. While around a third of young people took part in non-formal learning activities in Denmark (33.1%) and Sweden (28.6%), less than one per cent reported to take part in them in Romania and Bulgaria94. Health: Bad health is increasingly seen as a factor in social exclusion. In addition, inactivity and unemployment, especially long spells of unemployment have detrimental effects on people‘s health including mental wellbeing. When it comes to the health status of young people (16-29), 8.1% reported to perceive their overall health as fair, bad or very bad in 2011 across the EU28. While cross-country differences of self-perceived health status are difficult to interpret due to social and cultural factors influencing the response95, analysing differences within countries is more meaningful. The health status of young people within the lowest income quintile is lower than those in the highest quintile in all EU Member States, with the exception of Greece and Ireland. The gap between these two groups with regards to reporting fair, bad or very bad health status can be larger than 10% (in 2011: Portugal and Slovenia). According to the European Quality of Life Survey (EQLS), although the level of psychological well-being of young people is generally higher than in the total population, unemployed and inactive young people give a comparatively low rating for their subjective well-being96. Young people have significantly better-than-average mental well-being everywhere in Eastern Europe and in some southern European countries (especially Bulgaria, Greece, Romania and Slovenia) but for instance in Sweden young people score six points lower than the average population on the WHO scale97. 3.2.6 Future challenges Experiencing unemployment and poverty has long-term consequences for young people. Especially young people with only lower secondary education might be confronted with recurring spells of unemployment due to their lack of skills and work experience and their limited chances to 94 Eurofound, Social inclusion of young people, forthcoming 95 OECD (2010). Health at a Glance: Europe 2010, OECD Publishing: p. 44, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/health_glance2010-en (accessed 24.02.2014). 96 Eurofound, op.cit. 97 Ibidem 100 improve skills on-the-job98. Studies show that the experience of unemployment has more negative consequences for young people than for people in later phases of their careers 99. Long-term unemployment and detachment from the labour market and education and training increase the risk of poverty and social exclusion in later life. Gaps in employment and limited work experience can lead to a lower rate of pay, a reduced number of accrued social entitlements and in consequence long-term pay losses100. Accelerated by the crisis, many young people find themselves more often and involuntarily in nonstandard work contracts. They are more often than in the past confronted with interruptions in their career or forced to change career paths. This influences their contribution history to social security systems and pension schemes. They risk facing lower pension entitlements and an increased poverty risk at later age. For the individual, but also for the social security systems and for society as a whole these developments will create challenges for the future. More research on this is needed. While many of the current challenges are a consequence of the crisis and its direct impact on youth unemployment, long- term changes in career patterns with extended periods of education and training, more complex transition periods and less predictable career paths also play a role. Policies might need to respond not only to the short-term impact of the crisis and its effects on young people, but also address the structural challenges behind the current peak in youth unemployment and youth exclusion and the societal consequences of prolonged education periods and prolonged and more diversified transitions from education and training into employment and an increase of part time, temporary work. 3.2.7 Social inclusion and social protection of young people – policies and practices Most Member States have policies and initiatives in place to prevent and address youth unemployment, low educational achievement and early leaving from education and training and also particularly difficult situations of individual young people. Countries also try to create comprehensive approaches in addressing the often multiple problems of young people and trying to break the vicious circle of social disadvantage, low educational achievements and limited opportunities to find employment. 98 Eurofound (2012), NEETs – Young people not in employment, education or training: characteristics, costs and policy responses in Europe, OPOCE, Luxembourg. See also: Overview and examples of costs of early school leaving in Europe. Report of the Thematic Working Group on Early School Leaving, http://ec.europa.eu/education/policy/strategicframework/doc/europe-esl-costs_en.pdf 99 David N.F. Bell, David G. Blanchflower (2010): (http://www.dartmouth.edu/~blnchflr/papers/Youth%209-1.pdf) 100 Youth Unemployment: Déjà Vu? Eurofound (2012), NEETs; SPC (2013), Social Europe-Many ways, one objective. Annual Report of the Social Protection Committee on the social situation in the European Union, p.41. 101 If education and training of young people takes longer, transition from education to work becomes increasingly difficult, people change jobs and careers more often, work more on temporary jobs, and experience more often spells of unemployment, this has implications for the social protection of young people, which deserve due attention. 3.2.7.1 Individual support and structure-related measures A review and analysis of policies and initiatives for the social inclusion of young people, conducted by Eurofound in the context of its project on the "Social inclusion of young people", distinguished existing measures into 'individualising measures' and 'structure-related measures'101. Currently the majority of measures taken by Member States are individualising measures, addressing the individual capacities of young people to cope with labour market and societal demands. Structurerelated measures, addressing either socio-economic aspects or institutional set-up of youth transition are less frequent. A wide range of actors is involved in policies and initiatives for young people including public organisations at national, regional or local level, but also often private non-profit organisations. Especially the individualising measures and initiatives are often funded on a project-basis, lacking permanent structures and stable financing. They are normally addressed to specific groups of young people (e.g. NEETs), providing them with targeted individual support. Many of them respond well to the needs of young people facing multiple challenges and requiring comprehensive support to enter the labour market, but also concrete support in dealing for example with dysfunctional family settings, social and financial problems. At the same time, project-based individualising measures and initiatives do not respond to the structural disadvantages young people face on the labour market. They do not address the longterm consequences of youth unemployment and changed patterns in transition from education and training. The crisis and its substantial impact on the social situation of young people has presented us with the question of whether the European social protection systems are well prepared to address the specific needs of young people. Besides providing sufficient assistance to individual young people, they need to compensate for a possibly prolonged youth exclusion from the labour market and its long-term consequences such as lack of investment in skills development, foregone contribution periods to social security and limited benefit entitlements. 101 'Individualising measures' address individual capabilities to cope with labour market and societal demands such as coaching programmes or training courses for low skilled young people. 'Structure related measures' address either socio-economic aspects or the institutional set-up of youth transitions. They might develop infrastructures for young people or unlock barriers to the social inclusion of young people with the help of financial assistance. Eurofound (2014), Review and analysis of policies and initiatives for the social inclusion of young people, p.57. 102 Young people can receive different types of benefits, depending on their circumstances. Besides minimum income support and unemployment benefits, as described in more detail below, they might be entitled to disability benefits, housing benefits or family benefits and child care allowances. For the OECD countries, data indicate that for young people living in low- income households and for those with no work experience, social assistance, housing and family benefits play a key role. In 2011 it was estimated that for all young people, independent from their working status or involvement in education and training, family benefits played a crucial role in income support.102 This focus here is primarily on minimum income and unemployment benefits. The role of the different types of benefits in preventing the risk of poverty and social exclusion and in reacting to the impact of the crisis on young people in the EU would require further research. 3.2.7.2 Inclusive approaches to the Youth Guarantee The Youth Guarantee is an important policy initiative for addressing youth unemployment, aiming to provide all young people with a job or training opportunity within four months following their registration to the PES. In its character, it is both an 'individualising measure' addressing the individual capacities of young people and a 'structure-related measure' by re-organising the employment and other services for young people and providing better support to all young people. Some countries placed the Youth Guarantee already at the core of their strategies (PT, AT, BG, HR, LT, PL and RO among others). Looking at Youth Guarantee Implementation Plans in Member States confirms also that the concept of the Youth Guarantee has the potential to foster comprehensive approaches in addressing young people, including outreach activities to those furthest away from the labour market and not yet registered with the PES or any other service. An inclusive Youth Guarantee concept can address the needs of young people with multiple disadvantages and combine social support, targeted education and training measures and assistance in finding employment. It can be understood as a social investment approach by addressing the specific problems of individual young people at a decisive phase in their life, preventing or at least reducing the risk of social exclusion in future and shaping social services accordingly. Outreach activities and easy access to services are key. One-stop-shops for young people can avoid that services are scattered, have conflicting requirements on young people and are inefficient in their results. E.g. the Youth Employment Agency in Hamburg, Germany103 combines the public employment service, social services, educational authorities and local authorities. 102 OECD (2013), Working Party on Social Policy, "Social Policies for Youth: Bridging the Gap to Independence", p77ff. 103 Jugendberufsagentur; http://www.hamburg.de/jugendberufsagentur/ueber-uns/ 103 3.2.7.3 Access to minimum income support In most Member States, access to income support is granted to all people fulfilling the basic eligibility criteria. The aim is guaranteeing a minimum decent living standard for people on low or no income. In general, there is no conditionality related to age or previous attachment to the labour market. With sometimes important exceptions, young people who are outside the labour market have access to this type of benefit. In several countries (IE,UK, NL), the amount of income support depends on age and/ or living conditions, making a difference between different age groups and between different family situations such as living in the parents' household or having responsibility for a child. Link between income support and activation measures: In Ireland young people engaged in training programmes can receive higher rates of income support. In the Netherlands, young people have to proof that they tried to find work before they are entitled to receive income support. In Sweden, municipalities may require young people to participate in activation measures when receiving benefits. In Austria, specific emphasis is given on social integration, training and integration into the labour market of young people. 3.2.7.4 Access to unemployment benefits The insurance-based nature of unemployment benefits linking them to previous work history makes it difficult if not impossible for young unemployed people with very little or no work experience to get access. In a number of Member States (SK, HU, IE, CZ, PT, CY, DK, UK, FI, NL) the legislation is unified for all insured people, including young unemployed people. In order to be entitled to unemployment benefits, an insured person must have paid insurance contributions for a given period of time prior to registration as a job seeker. Minimum contribution periods vary between four months and 24 months; the maximum duration for receiving unemployment benefits can in some countries be longer than the contribution period, in most cases this period is shorter.104 Receipt of unemployment benefits is often also linked to being available for, capable of and genuinely seeking full-time employment. Confronted with high youth unemployment rates, some MSs (PT, SI, AT) have modified the eligibility criteria for young people e.g. by shortening or re-defining the minimum contribution periods for young people. Other countries such as Luxembourg and Romania provide unemployment benefits after a waiting period of several months; benefits are then not paid in full, but as a percentage of the minimum wage or with reference to social indicators. Another approach to address the problem exists e.g. in Slovakia: All people above 16 can contribute voluntary to the unemployment insurance, regardless of their work situation. This gives 104 OECD (2013) p. 80 104 them additional rights to access this type of benefit and is especially interesting for young people with long education and training periods. The level of coverage and access to benefits, both minimum income and unemployment benefits, differs across Europe. Overall, young people not in employment, education or training, in South Europe are less covered by income support than in Northern or Central Europe.105 Linked to the very nature of individually awarded benefits such as unemployment allowances, young people are more often covered by benefits awarded at household level such as social assistance, housing or family benefits. The access to all type of benefits and in relation to this the risk of poverty differs according to the living situation of young people, e.g. living with their parents or on their own. Nevertheless, the difference in receipt can be small if the parents are receiving income support as well. In terms of maximum duration of coverage, in many MSs, the period for which it is possible to claim unemployment benefit is linked to the amount of time over which contributions have been paid. Accordingly, in these cases, younger people eligible for benefits tend to receive them for a shorter period than older workers because they have not been in employment long enough to build up a lengthy contributions‘ record. In addition, because young people are likely to earn significantly lower wages than their older counterparts, especially if they are employed on probationary or training contracts, and more likely to work part-time, the benefits they receive can be considerably lower. This is particularly so for young women, who typically earn less than young men and are more likely to be employed part-time. There is also a group of young people not getting any kind of income support. Reasons for this lack of coverage might be rooted in the structure and accessibility of the different forms of income support and in the low level of registration of young people, especially NEETS, with public employment services or social services/ local authorities. OECD estimates for 2011 that more than 50% of NEETs did not receive any type of income support in ES, IT, PL and PT. In Northern Europe and most Continental Europe the rate is about 30% (except SE 40% and FI 20%).106 Not only the level of services and income support available for young people are relevant, but also the quality of services. As a project from the Council of Europe pointed out107, young people often perceive social services as not youth-user friendly, too complicated or contradictory in requirements. Training of staff in social services targeted to young people is relevant, but also the design of services, their transparency, availability and outreach. 105 OECD (2013) p. 78 106 OECD (2013) p.89 107 www.coe.int/enter 105 3.2.7.5 Access to health care services Investing in the health of young people is not only important for the individual young person, but also crucial in a life course perspective as it lowers the risk of health costs later on. The health of young people is influenced by health related behaviours such as tobacco and alcohol use, diet and exercise patterns, overweight and obesity, but also by wider social and economic factors. Healthy behaviours and conditions that arise during adolescence impact on health across the life course. Access to quality health care is determined by basically the costs of health care services and the availability of the right services at the right time; services targeted at young people as well as health education are important to improve coverage and out-reach. In countries where health care services are provided through public health insurance with universal coverage (UK, CZ, PT, SE, DK, FI), all young people have access to health care services. In UK, where treatment in general is free but there can be charges for some treatments, young people who receive (or are included in an award of) certain income-related benefits are entitled to full help with health costs. In some countries, access to health care services is granted linked to the receipt of social benefits or registration as job seekers (SK, HU, IE, AT, BE). While young people in Europe seem to be largely covered by either a health insurance scheme or public health care services, only few countries report on initiatives to address the specific needs of young people in health care. Their needs are strongly related to the rapid biological and psychosocial changes during adolescence and the resulting vulnerability of young people. This vulnerability can be especially high as a result of individual and environmental factors such as marginalisation, social exclusion or lack of parental support108. Data show that 15 to 20% of the adolescents in Europe suffer from one or more psychological or behavioural problems such as phobias, post-traumatic stress, depression, eating or learning disorders, substance abuse, juvenile delinquency, school absenteeism, and suicide109. In this context also the growing number of NEETs might raise concern: Young people not being in employment, education or training are more likely to develop mental and physical health problems. The increase in youth unemployment might also lead to subsequently higher demand for health services to cope with growing needs from young people. Difficulties in accessing health care by young people also emerge in the European Quality of Life Survey (EQLS). 44% of young respondents indicated that waiting time has made access to medical care at least a little difficult, while 37% indicate that they experienced a delay in getting an appointment. Finding time to go to the doctor (due to work or care responsibilities) is an issue for 32% of young people, and cost of medical care is a problem for 31%. The distance to travel to the doctor or hospital is a less frequent problem, experienced by 18%. There is variation between MSs 108 WHO 2014, Health for the World's Adolescents, Summary, p.6 109 http://adocare.eu/ 106 in the importance of these barriers: cost is a major barrier in CY and IE but not so much in UK and DK. In some countries multiple barriers to access exist, for example in EL and IT delay, waiting time and cost all seem to be an issue experienced by a significant proportion of young people. Compared to 2007, barriers in accessing health care, especially cost, have become more prevalent in some countries, especially EL, MT, NL, IE and SK. Table 5: Reasons for difficulty accessing healthcare, as reported by young people, 2011 Distance Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Germany Denmark Estonia Greece Spain Finland France Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Luxembourg Latvia Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Sweden Slovenia Slovakia UK Croatia EU28 7% 10% 22% 15% 19% 19% 17% 21% 38% 11% 18% 11% 17% 12% 36% 8% 4% 19% 16% 13% 24% 24% 22% 12% 25% 30% 12% 22% 18% Delay in getting an appointment 29% 20% 23% 20% 35% 41% 22% 43% 65% 26% 32% 26% 37% 21% 55% 28% 14% 25% 41% 20% 47% 45% 39% 32% 35% 33% 36% 42% 37% Waiting time Cost Finding time 31% 33% 39% 36% 53% 52% 24% 36% 68% 37% 29% 34% 42% 43% 61% 36% 34% 37% 65% 26% 42% 48% 56% 24% 38% 55% 42% 48% 44% 14% 26% 30% 51% 22% 27% 7% 23% 64% 10% 22% 32% 19% 51% 53% 30% 29% 29% 58% 25% 39% 37% 46% 16% 11% 50% 7% 18% 30% 21% 31% 20% 19% 25% 37% 34% 19% 39% 14% 19% 37% 18% 30% 36% 30% 30% 23% 38% 19% 26% 38% 34% 21% 13% 31% 36% 19% 31% Source: European Quality of Life Survey, 2011 Note: red shading indicates greater difficulty in accessing healthcare, green shading indicates less Data from EU-SILC indicate that for the EU average, young people (16-29) in 2012 do not report more unmet health needs compared to 2008, but in some MSs the percentage of young people 107 reporting on unmet health needs due to the fact that health services were too expensive, too far away or had long waiting increased (e.g. Estonia, Ireland, Greece)110. In order to improve the access to health services, several countries started to develop youth friendly health services which are responsive to the needs of young people and combine targeted services for young people with outreach activities (SE, UK). Outreach activities are especially relevant for NEETs; and also for young men, who are often recognised as the most under-served group when it comes to health services. Despite the fact that they are often in need for treatment, they address themselves less often to health services. Youth Health Centres like in SE, offering free of charge services for those under 20 and linked to youth centres, can be a solution to reach out to those hardest to reach111. Also disseminating relevant information on health issues via Internet could be a means for reaching out to young people. 3.2.7.6 Acquisition of pension rights One of the potentially more significant long-term effects of prolonged youth unemployment is the loss of pension contributions with all the consequences this can have on acquiring pension rights as well as on the level of pension income. Member States have different approaches in terms of counting or not years in unemployment for pension insurance and the way periods of unemployment are factored in terms of the acquisition of pension rights. Some countries also have time limits to pension coverage in case of prolonged periods of unemployment. In some Member States, basic unemployment allowances do not add to earnings-related pensions (FI, SK) and a period of unemployment is not considered as period of pension insurance (SK), but in SK and AT, for example, it is possible to pay a voluntary pension insurance during unemployment. In other Member States pension contributions are provided by the state if young people are on social benefits (CZ, IE, UK, PT, BE, AT), insurance-based social benefits are considered as income and thus, compulsory insurable (DE) in order to protect entitlements, or receipt of social benefits confers pension rights (SE). However, in some countries this is conditional upon having previous social insurance record (IE). Basic state pensions as in Denmark or the Netherlands give basic pension rights to everyone independent from his or her contribution history. Entitlement is based on the residence in the country. 110 Eurostat, yth_hlth_060 111 WHO (2010) Youth-friendly health policies and services in the European Region, p.151 108 One important and rather under-researched issue is related to the social long-term consequences of large shares of long-term youth unemployment leading to young people having (significantly) reduced contribution histories and the implications for future pension adequacy and the pension systems overall. Estimations of the average loss in pension right due to unemployment can provide first hints on the difficulties young people might face at retirement age. While there is a considerable protection of pension entitlements in the unemployment benefit system in most Member States for unemployment spells of up to 3 years, the loss in entitlement increases with the duration of career breaks. Especially in pay-as-you-go pension schemes, extended periods of unemployment or non-linear transitions to the labour market with recurring periods of unemployment and education and training, can have a great impact on pension entitlements and increase the risk of poverty at later age.112 In addition, it appears to be particularly difficult for people to recoup the drop in entitlement, if they are without pension coverage in the first three to five years of their working career. Measures such as re-defining contribution periods during extended periods of education and training, transition periods from education to work or recurring unemployment spells; or strengthening basic pension schemes, are examples of possible adjustments to the pension system. The European Quality of Life Survey113 shows that young people‘s views on the quality of the state pensions system has decreased in many Member States between 2003 and 2011 (most negative changes can be observed in Czech Republic, Bulgaria, UK, Belgium, Cyprus, Hungary, Ireland). As shown in Figure 51, in several countries young people rate the quality of the pension system lower than other age groups. Only in Lithuania, Croatia, Czech Republic and Luxembourg have youth rated the pension system better than other age groups. In Latvia, Sweden, Poland and Finland youth rated pension system worse than other age groups. 112 Joint Report on Pensions: Progress and key challenges in the delivery of adequate and sustainable pensions in Europe, p.55 113 Managed by Eurofound and carried out every four years, this pan-European survey examines both the objective circumstances of European citizens' lives and how they feel about those circumstances and their lives in general. http://eurofound.europa.eu/surveys/eqls 109 Figure 51: In general how would you rate the quality of the following public services: state pension system – difference in judgement between youth and other age groups (country mean – scale 0 – 10) Source: EQLS data 2011 *differences statistically significant p<0.05; 3.2.8 Results of the in-depth thematic review Experiences among MS show the need to balance carefully social protection measures and activation measures for young people. In Belgium young unemployed people, who do not yet qualify for unemployment benefit due to insufficient work history, can receive a benefit while engaging in job-seeking activities. This means that there is an incentive for them to establish a connection with the Public Employment Services, early after graduation. Belgium reported on a recent reform of the benefit (integration allowance) that includes the extension of the waiting time to one year, a stronger obligation to take part in activation measures and to look actively for work and the limitation of the duration to three years. Ireland and Spain stressed especially the need to develop comprehensive strategies in supporting young people, to ensure cross-sectoral cooperation and to improve transition from school or vocational training to work and tackle early school leaving. Based on an exploratory discussion on youth exclusion from the social protection point of view and building on the thematic focus of the 2014 National Social Reports, the SPC identified the following issues which need to be taken into account in further developing policy guidance on addressing youth exclusion. Overall, social protection systems should provide sufficient social protection for all young people taking into account their individual social and employment situation and at the same time avoiding dependency traps. To ensure the right balance, a close monitoring of the specific measures for young people and their social protection is therefore necessary. Conditionality and waiting times can, when designed carefully and taking into account the overall labour market situation and the employability of a young person, help to motivate young people to pick up employment or to 110 continue or re-enter education and training. Too limited or lack of access to benefits combined with lack of or limited access to enabling services risks to create prolonged dependency on parents‘ and/or family support and delays financial and effective independency. Long periods of unemployment, inactivity or precarious employment might increase the risk of long-term salary losses, limited pension rights and poverty in retirement. Thus, focus should be put on increasing employability and income benefits, relevant for young people, should be better linked to activation measures and to a tailor-made approach to training. Integrated and multidimensional approaches are necessary to answer to the needs of young people especially during transition periods and when confronted with unemployment or precarious employment. They combine different perspectives and policy approaches in addressing young people and allow for using the different resources available to help young people in need. This includes close cooperation between different policy areas and providers of social support, health services, education and employment services. Youth organisations can also play a crucial role in integrating young people in society and in reaching out to those furthest away from the labour market addressing young people in a different way than employment and social services and using different communication channels. Comprehensive government strategies to address the social, educational and employment situation of young people can form the framework to bring different stakeholders at local, regional and national level together and design efficient and effective policy interventions. Attention needs to be paid to the situation of young people with migration background, especially newly arriving young migrants. Municipalities/ local governments are an important actor in providing targeted support for young people. Municipalities/ local governments could be better placed to know the concrete difficulties young people face in their region, know their labour market situation and can combine the different services to support young people. Depending on the structure of social support systems, municipalities can create one-stop-shops for young people including a wide range of employment and social services, youth coaching and access to further education and training, reach out to young people and cooperate with local stakeholders, including youth workers, education and training institutes, but also local employers. Important are early interventions and an early detection of potential problems of young people to provide targeted support before young people become disengaged, inactive and consequently further excluded from the labour market. Mobility can help young people to gain first work experiences and to improve their skills; supporting the mobility can therefore be one possibility to help young people in regions with high youth unemployment. At the same time it can create the risk of brain drain; balance needs to be kept between promoting mobility of young people, strengthening access to local labour markets and offering young people realistic chances to return to their region after having spent some time abroad. The Youth Guarantee is recognized by Member States as a very important comprehensive and strategic instrument for addressing youth unemployment in Europe. They can bring together initiatives such as Youth Coaching programmes, programmes focussing on the skills and 111 employability of young people, and outreach activities to sustainably improve the social situation of young people. Social protection systems have an important role to play in supporting labour market integration and helping young people to bridge difficult periods of transition from education and training to work and to employment of progressively higher quality. They are also relevant in avoiding the risk of long-term social exclusion, providing young people with multiple difficulties with support to increase their employability and bring them closer to the labour market. The in-depth review made clear that further exchange on the efficiency and effectiveness of the different approaches is needed. 3.3 Depth of poverty 3.3.1 Introduction The depth of poverty has been identified as a social trend to watch in 2013114 by the SPC, and as such, chosen as subject for a thematic review in the beginning of 2015. The 2013 SPC report on the social situation in Europe highlighted that there has been a substantial increase in the poverty gap and in the severe material deprivation rate in more than one third of Member States between 2011 and 2012, leading to a deterioration in living standards in these countries. Between 2008 and 2012, the relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap increased in more than two thirds of Member States. It should be noted however that even in the decade before the crisis, despite economic and employment growth, poverty and social exclusion remained major issues in most EU countries and income inequalities often grew. This paper provides a background for discussion on effective and efficient social policy responses to address the challenge of increasing depth of poverty in several Member States. The risks of falling into and the chances of getting out of poverty vary across Member States, and have changed over time. The macro-economic environment, the labour market situation, and the policy mix in place (economic, fiscal, employment, and social) have a crucial impact on social outcomes. Further, countries with robust social protection systems characterised by stronger social investment have weathered much better the crisis, in terms of economic, as well as employment and social outcomes. These systems help through investing in human capital to prevent poverty from happening in the first place and to get people back on their own feet as quickly as possible. For this purpose, a comprehensive policy approach, adapted to the individual's needs, is needed. This review will look at options for increasing the effectiveness of social protection systems in avoiding that people fall into severe poverty and ensuring adequate livelihoods, through the right social policy mix of benefits and services that both activate and enable. We will pay particular 114 SPC (2014) Social Europe: Many ways, one objective. Annual report of the Social Protection Committee on the social situation in the European Union (2013) 112 attention to some characteristics of the social protection system, such as the coverage and adequacy of income support, and the role of enabling services. The Social Investment Package, adopted by the European Commission in 2013, addressed these issues, calling for specific policy actions such as one-stop-shops, the increase in take-up and coverage of social benefits, ensuring adequate income support (which can be supported by setting reference budgets), and promoting activation, including through the use of conditionality. The distribution in the access to quality services, such as healthcare, childcare, housing, life-long learning, or social services also needs to be considered when ensuring adequate livelihoods and social investment across society and an individual's lifecycle. Through the European Semester, the European Commission supports Member States in their efforts to improving the effectiveness of social protection and social investment in addressing poverty and social exclusion challenges. In particular, since 2011, the Council has adopted several country specific recommendations (CSRs) on the improvement of social transfers, the adequacy and coverage of unemployment benefits and social assistance, the link to activation, and access to enabling services (see Table 6 below). Table 6: Council CSRs on enabling and activating benefits and services per MS, 2011-2014 Adequacy and coverage of unemployment benefits and social assistance (BG, ES, HR, HU, IT, LT, LV, PT, UK); Strengthen the links between benefits and activation policies (BG, ES, FR, HR, HU, IT, LT, NL, PT, RO, SK); Increase ALMPs for specific profiles such as migrants, long-term unemployed, Roma (BE, BG, EE, ES, FI, FR, HR, IE, LU, LT, PT, SE, SI, SK); Improve the coverage and adequacy of ALMPs as well as ensure cost efficiency of the ALMPs (BE, BG, DK, EE, ES, FI, FR, HR, HU, IE, IT, LU, LT, LV, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK); Improve the quality and out-reach of activation services and PES (CZ, DE, ES, IE, IT); Improve the quality, accessibility and coverage of services complementing activation services (BG, EE, ES, FI, HR, IE, LV, UK); Develop individualised services (CZ, DK, ES, FR, SI, SK). 113 3.3.2 Recent trends Since 2008 poverty and social exclusion have increased, pulling the EU further away from the Europe 2020 target to reduce the number of people at risk of poverty and social exclusion by at least 20 million in 2020. There are 7.8 million more people living in poverty or social exclusion, totalling 122.6 million people in 2013. Poverty and social exclusion has increased in more than one third of the Member States in 2011 and 2012, and the poverty and social exclusion of children has increased in 18 Member States since 2008. The overall trends mask growing divergence between Member States. The poverty gap is a way of looking at the depth of poverty. It indicates the extent to which the incomes of those at risk of poverty fall below the poverty threshold on average. In 2013, the relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap115 in the EU27 was 23.8% lower than the at-risk-of-poverty threshold. This has increased by 2 pp since 2008, although broadly remaining stable since 2012. In 2013, the poverty gap in the EU27 countries varied between 15% (in FI) to over 30% (BG, EL, ES and RO). It is especially concerning that the poverty gap has increased in two-thirds of all Member States since 2008, and in some countries quite substantially (by around 4 pp or more in BG, PT, HU, IT, DK, SK and EL). Trends in the severe material deprivation rate also show substantial increases in some Member States and clear signs of worsening living standards, not only in countries with historically high rates. In the period 2012-2013, 8 Member States saw statistically significant increases in the share of their population living in severe material deprivation (with the highest increases in PT (2.3pp), CY (1.1 pp) and DK (1.0 pp)). However, the overall picture was more balanced than in the preceding years since there were also 11 Member States that recorded a statistically significant reduction in severe material deprivation, with particularly notable improvements in the Baltic States (LT (-3.8 pp), EE (-1.8 pp), and LV (-1.6 pp)) as well as IT (-2.1 pp) and PL (-1.6 pp). Nevertheless, the longer term trend remains mainly negative overall, with the rate of severe material deprivation having increased since 2008 in more than half of Member States. The countries seeing the worst increases – EL (9.1 pp), HU (8.9 pp) and CY (7.0 pp), but also IT, LV, LT and MT – are among those most affected by the economic crisis, although LV and LT have experienced a very sharp improvement in the situation over the last year or two. PL and RO are the countries with the most important improvements since 2008. 115 The relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap is calculated as the difference between the median equivalised disposable income of people below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold and the at-risk-of-poverty threshold, expressed as a percentage of the at-risk-of-poverty threshold (cut-off point: 60 % of national median equivalised disposable income). 114 3.3.3 Policy responses When assessing the policy responses to the depth of poverty challenge, the wider macroeconomic and institutional set-up needs to be taken into account. Fiscal, economic and employment policies influence social outcomes and interact with social policies, strengthening or limiting their effectiveness. For instance, fiscal policies interact with labour market policies and institutions, providing incentives/disincentives to work, and thus influencing the performance of social policies. The labour market situation in turn impacts on the returns from social investment, since the benefits in terms of economic growth from a higher labour supply and improved human capital depend on jobs being available in the labour market. As stressed by the Social Investment Package, social protection systems that provide activating and enabling benefits and services contribute to higher labour force participation and human capital development, positively influencing labour market and economic outcomes. As a consequence, an integrated policy-making approach, which considers the complementary functions of economic, employment and social policies, is needed. The Social Investment Package sets out the European Commission's long-term vision on the future of social policies. The social investment approach calls for social protection systems that prevent against risks across the lifecycle and support activation, as well as for improved effectiveness and efficiency of social expenditure. Such an approach reconciles social, employment and economic objectives. The Social Investment Package emphasises the need for well-targeted, comprehensive and enabling benefits and services. It highlights the importance of preventative approaches. Policies should facilitate the integration into sustainable, quality employment of those who can work and provide resources which are sufficient to live in dignity, together with support for social participation, for those who cannot. The complementary role of different social policies needs to be taken into account. This requires a comprehensive assessment of the policy mix in each Member State. In this background paper we will particularly focus on a few characteristics of the social protection systems, which play an essential role in tackling the depth of poverty challenge. Other thematic reviews have dealt with other aspects of social policies. Adequate and activating income support is key in reducing the poverty gap and severe poverty. Social protection systems should provide adequate and activating income support to empower people across all stages of their lives and enhance their opportunities to participate in the labour market and society. The role of social transfers such as unemployment benefits and minimum income schemes, as well as family and children benefits is therefore highly relevant. The schemes should help people to be able, motivated and activated to work. Some of the main challenges identified by the European Commission regarding minimum income schemes relate to their adequacy, coverage, simplification and their effective linking to activation and enabling services. In this background paper we will mainly focus on the adequacy and coverage challenges, as other SPC thematic reviews have already dealt with other aspects of income support. 115 In addition to income support access to enabling services such as early childhood education and care, education and training, transport, housing, job assistance, debt-counselling, health care, or long-term care, also plays an essential role in reducing depth of poverty and supporting people to improve their living conditions and employment prospects. Efforts to address severe poverty and reduce the poverty gap should also comprise simplifying services and benefits and their administration, reducing administrative burdens and increasing take-up. This could be achieved through for instance setting up one-stop-shops and improving targeting through progressive universalism. These issues are reflected in the 2015 AGS call for simplified and better targeted social policies complemented by affordable quality childcare and education, prevention of early school leaving, training and job assistance, housing support and accessible health care. 3.3.3.1 Adequate income support When assessing the adequacy of income support through unemployment benefits and social assistance, two indicators can be used: the net replacement rates of unemployment benefits, and the net income of people on social assistance relative to the poverty threshold. The average net replacement of unemployment benefits ranges from 45 % in Greece and Slovakia, to over 75 % in Denmark, the Netherlands and Portugal. This shows that the overall generosity of unemployment benefit systems exhibits a high degree of variation across EU countries. In most Member States the theoretical adequacy of unemployment benefits is improved by the presence of the children in the household and decreases with unemployment spells. The provision of cash housing assistance or social assistance improves the net replacements rates significantly in some Member States, especially in Czech Republic, Latvia, and the UK. Figure 52: Average net replacements of unemployment benefits, 2010 Source: DG EMPL calculations based on OECD-EC tax-benefit model The adequacy of social assistance can be measured by the net income of people on social assistance relative to the median equivalised income. Countries differ substantially in terms of the 116 minimum safety nets they provide to jobless households, even when they are compared to the atrisk-of-poverty threshold which depends on the living standards within each country. Only a few countries provide households with a minimum income and related benefits (for example housing) that are sufficient to lift them close to, or above, the 60 % median income threshold, and this only for some family types. Figure 53: Net income of people living on social assistance relative to median equivalised income, 2010 Source: OECD-EC tax-benefit model. 3.3.3.2 Coverage of social transfers The effectiveness of a benefit system also depends on its coverage, i.e. the extent to which the population at risk is covered by the system and actually receives benefits when the risk occurs. The characteristics of benefit systems vary considerably across Member States, from those with wide coverage and high levels of adequacy in the Nordic countries and Continental Europe, to low coverage and low adequacy in Eastern Europe and some of the Southern Member States. There is also a variance in terms of the composition of policy instruments (unemployment insurance v. unemployment assistance) and their design (adjustment of benefits over the unemployment spell, link to past earnings). On average in the EU, 20 % of adults living in poor and jobless households receive less than 10 % of their income from social benefits when child benefits are included. The rate increases to nearly 30 % when child benefits are excluded. The non-coverage rate varies greatly between Member States. It ranges from less than 10 % in the North and Centre of Europe, while it exceeds 20 % in the Southern countries and Poland (Figure 54). 117 Figure 54 : Proportion of 18–59 individuals living in jobless households at risk of poverty, whose total benefits received is less than 10 % of total net disposable household income, 2010 Source: DG EMPL calculations based on Eurostat, EU-SILC (2011, IE 2010). A number of countries (Bulgaria, Poland and Portugal) combine a limited coverage of both unemployment benefits and social assistance. This raises issues about the alternative sources of income on which these people may live, such as family solidarity and informal work. Almost all EU countries have some form of minimum income scheme at national level. Member States that do not have one, such as Italy, have other schemes at regional or local level. These are generally conceived as a short-term form of assistance, though in most Member States, they are not formally time-limited. They are means-tested and funded through the tax system. They are intended mainly for people out of work, but some Member States (Cyprus, Germany, Lithuania, France, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Sweden and Ireland) have extended their scope to provide in-work income support. An examination of various national definitions116 shows that most Member States use a statutory minimum level of income, fixed by the (national, regional, local) legislator or government. Further classifications are possible along territorial arrangements, type of benefits (cash vs. in-kind), and existence of top-ups (or income tapers). In most Member States the minimum income level is not linked to national minimum wage. 116 MISSOC Analysis (2011). Guaranteed Minimum Resources, MISSOC Secretariat for the European Commission, Contract nr. VC/2010/1131. 118 The coverage of unemployment benefit systems can be assessed using a pseudo-coverage rate that relates the number of people actually receiving an unemployment benefit (as declared in EUSILC with potential misclassifications) to the number of people unemployed during at least three months during the past year. The coverage of unemployment benefits varies greatly across countries and varies relative to the length of time spent in unemployment: up until 3 months; between 4 and 6 months; and between 7 and 12 months (see Figure 55 below). A low coverage of unemployment benefits undermines the effectiveness of high income replacement rates. Figure 55: Share of the unemployed aged 18–59 receiving unemployment benefits during the reference period by unemployment duration, 2010 Source: DG EMPL calculations based on Eurostat, EU-SILC (2011 IE 2010). Note: Reference population: unemployed aged 18–59 having experienced at least 3 consecutive months of unemployment over the previous year. 3.3.3.3 Access to quality and affordable services Providing affordable access to services (e.g. early childhood education and care (ECEC), housing, health care, transport etc.) complements other social protection instruments in ensuring adequate livelihoods and empowering people to participate in the labour market and society. In the rest of this paper we particularly focus on access to housing and to early childhood education and care. Early childhood education and care Children who grow up in poverty often stay in poverty for their entire lives. For example, significant disadvantages faced in childhood in education – such as limited access to high quality education, limited access to additional learning support, lack of parental support or access to additional (nonformal) learning opportunities, are often compounded over life. 119 Many Member States have not yet achieved the 2002 EU targets for childcare, better known as the Barcelona targets117, and there are signs that provision is actually worsening due to the crisis118. As expected the use of ECEC facilities increases with age. Ensuring provision of facilities for children below 3 years of age is of particular importance for child wellbeing and for female employment. Again there are many Member States who are significantly below the target of 33%. In addition, as shown in Figure 56, in many MSs, there is a steep social gradient when it comes to ECEC attendance, meaning that a greater proportion of children from higher socioeconomic classes are enrolled in formal childcare in comparison to children from poorer background. Children from disadvantaged backgrounds, who would benefit most from quality ECEC, are in fact far less likely to make use of these services. This holds for several social background indicators such as the parent‘s level of education, labour market position, income level and the risk of poverty. Figure 56: Percentage of children aged 0 to 2 in formal ECEC per income quintile 117 The Barcelona targets for 2010 were: 90% of all children between ages 3 and mandatory school age attending ECEC, and 33% of children under 3 years of age. 118 Commission (DG JUST) Progress report Barcelona objectives: The development of childcare facilities for young children in Europe with a view to sustainable and inclusive growth. 120 Source: Note for the ISG on the inequality in the use of ECEC. SPC/ISG/2014/12/8. Data from EU-SILC 2011 and calculations by Tarki-Applica Note: Income quintiles based on families with children of less than 6 years old. High quality, integrated ECEC services, complemented by individualised support and interventions, are more likely to be successful in their redistributive role to break the cycle of disadvantage. Existing barriers could be reduced by increased targeting of government assistance aimed at reducing the cost of childcare for low income families. The appropriate degree of targeting, however, depends on the relative priorities over a range of policy objectives. Broad or universal provision of ECEC removes the need to engage in the complex and often unsuccessful task of identifying and targeting disadvantaged categories of children. It can also support better the overall development and inclusion of children while limiting stigmatisation and segregation. Evidence shows that supply and demand for places match only in those countries that provide legal entitlement with a place guarantee straight after the end of parental leave. In these systems the cost is also differentiated according to income and a ceiling for the percentage of parental contribution is also decided.119 Housing Housing costs represent an important share of a household's income, especially for lower income groups. Households not defined as relatively poor by standard indicators fall into relative poverty once housing expenses are take into account. Transitions into poverty due to housing expenses, for instance, vary from a minimum of 4 % in Malta to a maximum of 13 % in the United Kingdom120. An increasing burden of housing costs on a household's income as well as the over-indebtedness of many households might result in the inability of households to pay mortgages, rent or utility 119 Key data on ECEC http://eacea.ec.europa.eu/education/eurydice/documents/key_data_series/166EN.pdf. 120 (EACEA, Maestri, V. (2014), A Measure of Income Poverty Including Housing: Benefits and Limitations for Policy Making, Social Indicator Research, May 2014 121 2014) bills, increasing vulnerability for repossessions, foreclosures and evictions and in some cases, homelessness. There is a growing need for locally available affordable housing, including social housing and affordable private rentals, as well as a sufficient level of housing and heating allowances121. Available data shows that the number of homeless families or living in temporary accommodation for prolonged periods has been growing in certain Member States. This needs to be prevented and addressed through early intervention. Households with children, especially single-parent families, face a higher incidence of being overburdened by housing costs than other households. This can be counterbalanced by adequate levels of social, family and housing- support. 3.3.4 The need for a comprehensive social investment approach Adequate income support, including unemployment benefits and social assistance, linked to inclusive labour market measures, activation measures and access to quality services in an integrated approach, are part of a comprehensive policy response to ensuring adequate livelihoods and preventing and reducing the level and depth of poverty. Income support schemes should help people to be able, motivated and activated to work. In this regard, establishing and strengthening minimum income schemes -their adequacy, coverage, link to activation and enabling services- should be a priority. Minimum income should be high enough for a decent life. Better designed administrative systems for instance through one-stop shops would improve access to services and benefits whilst reducing administrative burden and costs. Service integration, including through individualised approaches, deserves attention as it may not only contribute to improving access and take-up, but also provide an answer to coping with new types of social risks, the increased role of prevention, and the need for coordination between increasingly complex services. Analysing the characteristics of the very poor populations and the (mis-)match of benefits and services available to these populations would be a good basis for a focused discussion on where Member States should concentrate their efforts in order to reduce depth of poverty. A better understanding of the profiles of the very poor would also be the basis for an individualized approach that tackles the specific barriers the respective person faces in order to ensure sustainable reintegration into the labour market and the society. 3.3.5 Results of the in-depth thematic review Drivers behind poverty and social exclusion are multiple; they can vary across an individual's lifecycle and are closely related to the wider economic and labour market context. Comprehensive, 121 Commission Staff Working Document (2013)42 final on Confronting homelessness in the European Union 122 needs-driven, preventive and individualised approaches can contribute to avoiding and alleviating poverty and social exclusion in an effective and sustainable manner. Social investments are part and parcel of such approaches by targeting specific needs arising across the life-cycle, ensuring adequate income support and providing access to quality enabling services supporting individuals in critical transitions. Adequate income support, through unemployment benefits, minimum income schemes and other cash benefits, plays a key role in preventing and avoiding severe poverty. The level of income support should be high enough to allow for a decent life, while at the same time people need to be motivated and activated to work. This requires an effective link between income support schemes and activation. Ensuring coverage and adequacy of minimum income schemes is a challenge, particularly in those Member States with less fiscal space. Different methodologies, including reference budgets, are being used by MSs to assess the adequacy of their minimum income schemes. Access to quality enabling services is essential to address poverty and social exclusion, considering the multiple barriers to employment and social participation experienced by the population concerned, such as low educational attainment, lack of training and skills, health problems and disability, the need to care for children or adult dependents, language problems, transport costs, housing costs, etc. Provision of activating and enabling benefits and services should be adequately linked and combined with income support schemes. Efforts should also comprise simplifying services and benefits and their administration. This could be achieved through for instance setting up one-stop-shops and improved targeting. Several MSs are moving towards more integrated delivery of benefits and services, which address the multiple drivers of labour market and social exclusion, and are targeted to an individual's needs. In some cases, MSs use one-stop shops (e.g. activation centres in DE, located in the job centres, which channel individual's needs towards other relevant service providers), while others (e.g. CY) aim at improved cooperation between social and employment services. A more integrated provision of benefits and services can contribute, on the one hand, to better take-up and coverage by potential beneficiaries, and on the other, to more efficient and optimised administrative procedures. The individualised provision of a comprehensive package of benefits and services, often under the responsibility of different administrations, presents non-negligible governance challenges (in particular in MS where different functions and responsibilities are divided between national, regional and local level like ES and DE) Instruments such as common databases could facilitate inter-institutional /departmental coordination. Policy design should take a systemic approach to the panoply of cash and in-kind benefits and services provided by the social protection system, and consider how these interact, both at individual and household level, with other policies and institutions, such as fiscal incentives/disincentives to work and labour market institutions (public employment services, minimum wage…). Trade-offs between different policy measures and the need to take a comprehensive approach to the design of social protection is illustrated by recent reforms in LU, 123 where maternity/family allowances (which contributed to inactivity traps for women) have been eliminated and investment shifted towards childcare facilities. In addition more attention is needed for evidence-based approaches and creating knowledge on real outcomes coming from policy initiatives and innovative experiences, both in terms of social and economic returns. Sound methodological frameworks would help in the design of sound policies and reforms by public authorities. Finally, involving social partners, and articulating the right synergies between the public and the private sector, including civil society and social economy actors, is key in addressing our current social challenges and to mitigate the pressures on our social protection systems. 3.4 The role of activating and enabling benefits and services in reducing long-term exclusion from the labour market in the EU 3.4.1 Introduction Unemployment and long-term unemployment have been some of the more immediate and tangible impacts of the economic crisis. While the share of (quasi-) jobless households has stabilised in some countries in 2013 (AT, MT, HU, and HR) and has improved in some others (CZ, PL, FR, DE, and RO), it remains a major issue in the countries mostly affected by the crisis (EL, IE, ES, LT, PT, BG). Long-term unemployment is often times related to prolonged economic recessions as well as structural challenges. It puts pressure on social protection systems in terms of income support for longer periods of time, use of different benefit schemes to address the challenge as well as the design of safety nets which are capable of having a strong activating element and manage to provide the services necessary to guarantee the long-term unemployed opportunities to be integrated back in the labour market. The situation of the long-term unemployed and the jobless households, i.e. those furthest away from the labour market, is at the core of the interrelation between activation policies and access to services, effectiveness of social protection schemes and the tax and benefit system and is directly influenced by general labour market conditions. The Social Investment package122 adopted by the Commission in February 2013 has most recently emphasized the need for well-targeted, comprehensive and enabling active inclusion strategies which include both income support and access to services. The investment approach can be used in containing the rise of long-term unemployment and jobless households by placing the right 122 http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=1044&newsId=1807&furtherNews=yes 124 emphasis on the prevention dimension. For those already in long-term unemployment, a comprehensive approach that combines activation with income support and enabling services based on individual contracts can be a solution. The Employment package123 calls for supporting job creation (through lowering labour tax, wage subsidies, etc.), increased investment in skills, and a series of labour market reforms (such as anticipating restructuring, life-long learning, ALMPs) that would facilitate return to the labour market including for the long-term unemployed. Long-term labour market exclusion was identified by the SPC as one of the social trends to watch for 2013 and as such was chosen as a subject to a thematic review in the course of the second half of 2014124. In its Communication on the social dimension of the EMU from 2 October 2013, the Commission gives strong priority to the exchange of best practices and policy learning which should be scaled up in the framework of the OMC. While the issues related to how to address the challenges of the long-term excluded from the labour market and their effective and sustainable re-integration into the labour market are very broad, it is proposed that this thematic review focuses on the social protection perspective, and in particular on the role of activating and enabling benefits and services in reducing long-term labour market exclusion. This review will therefore contribute to mutual learning on the modernisation of social protection systems, a priority area for reform identified in the 2015 Annual Growth Survey125, looking at specific ways to effectively and efficiently address long-term labour market exclusion. 3.4.2 Recent trends For the purposes of this note long-term labour market exclusion is examined through developments in the long-term unemployment, share of population living in (quasi-) jobless households, the at-risk of poverty rate for the population living in (quasi-) jobless households (all these three SPPM indicators) and inactivity rates. 3.4.2.1 Long-term unemployment Around 12.4 million people have been unemployed for at least one year. In the second quarter of 2014, long-term unemployment in the EU remains at the same level as in the second quarter of 2013, i.e. 5.1% of the labour force (-0.1 pp compared to the first quarter of 2013). It is more than double, however, of the lowest point of the examined period (2.5% in the third quarter of 2008). The very long-term unemployment rate (people in unemployment for at least two consecutive 123 Towards a job-rich recovery COM/2012/0173 final 124 SPC (2014) Social Europe: Many ways, one objective. Annual report of the Social Protection Committee on the social situation in the European Union (2013) 125 Annual Growth Survey 2015, COM(2014) 902 final 125 years) also remained stable over the quarter (at 3.1% of the labour force, an increase of 0.2 pp on the second quarter of 2013). The very long-term unemployment thus represented around 60% of total long-term unemployment (Figure 57). Figure 57: Unemployment rate and long-term unemployment indicators in EU-28 Source: Eurostat (LFS) Long-term unemployment rates appear to have stabilised in the majority of EU Member States but continue to increase in countries where they are already high, such as Greece, Spain, Italy and Cyprus (see Figure 58). In the year to the second quarter of 2014, Cyprus and Greece saw the largest increase (+2.1 pp), while long-term unemployment rates are at historically high levels in Greece (19.9%) and Spain (12.9%). In contrast, long-term unemployment fell the most in Latvia (1.3 pp), Ireland (-1.2 pp) and Croatia (-1.0 pp). 126 Figure 58: Levels and changes in long-term unemployment rates 2013 – 2014 in EU 28 Source: Eurostat (LFS) In the first quarter of 2014, the activity rate in the EU stood at 72.1% for the 15 to 64 year-old population, representing a total of 242.5 million people (see Figure 59). This represents an increase of 0.5 pp over the year from the first quarter of 2013 and of 1.8 pp since the first quarter of 2008. Over the year to the first quarter of 2014, the activity rate remained stable in most Member States, with significant increases seen in Croatia (+6.9 pp), Hungary (+2.4 pp) and Luxembourg (+1.8 pp). Only Estonia and Denmark, both countries with activity rates well above the EU average, recorded significant decreases (around 1.0 pp). In terms of gender differences, while on average there are more men (5.2%) than women (5.1%) affected by long-term unemployment, there are significant country differences (with high female long-term unemployment rates in IT and EL). In Italy, Romania and Malta the activity rate remains low and significantly below that of other Member States. It is interesting to note that the low overall activity rates in these three countries are associated with low female activity rates - the lowest activity rates in the EU. 127 Figure 59: Activity rate in the EU-28 Member States – 2008-2014 Source: Eurostat (LFS) A recent World Bank – European Commission report126 examined trends in labour market exclusion in six EU member States (Bulgaria, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania, and Romania). During the examined period (2007-2011), the total out-of-work population has increased in five of the six countries studied. Estonia and Lithuania had the greatest increase in the out-of-work population (all the inactive population), both increasing 33 percent from 2007 to 2011. In Greece this group increased almost 26 percent, by more than 550,000 people. Hungary had a small increase in the out-of-work population (25,000), but had the highest share of out-of-work in 2008 and second highest in 2011 (37 and 38 percent respectively). Only in Romania did the out-of-work population decrease (2.5 percent or 106,000), but it remains a large share of the total working-age population (31.2 percent). The characteristics of the profiles of out-of-work population vary from country to country. Based on the EU-SILC survey for 2011, in Estonia, Bulgaria, and Greece seven groups of out-of-work individuals could be identified, while in Lithuania and Romania eight groups distinctive groups emerge, and in Hungary ten. Nevertheless, there are some general groups that can be identified in all six countries. Clusters of middle-aged unemployed, long-term unemployed, retirees, disabled, inactive women or mothers, NEETs (young people not in employment, education or training) and young unemployed are present in every country. The size, share and profile characteristics are different, reflecting the demographics and labour market of a particular country. The needs for support in getting back to the labour market also vary according to the individual's characteristics. The high share and number of long-term unemployed is another worrisome issue in all the countries analysed. Across the clusters of unemployed, the share of individuals in long-term 126 Ramya Sundaram, Ulrich Hoerning, at co. (2014). Portraits of labour market exclusion, The World Bank. 128 unemployment in all countries has grown. In addition, in Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary, and Romania long-term unemployed accounted for 12 to 28 percent of the out-of-work population. It is also worth noting that in some Member States, either for structural reasons or as a consequence of the crisis, a significant share of long-term unemployed does not correspond to the "traditional" low skilled profiles. 3.4.2.2 Jobless households In 2013, around 10.7% (40 million) of Europeans lived in (quasi-)jobless households (i.e. in households with very low work intensity).127 This share has been increasing in the past years at the EU level. Differences range from 23.4% (IE) to 6.4% (RO) (Figure 60). Countries such as EL and ES have faced particularly drastic increases between 2008 and 2013. In EL, the percentage of population living in (quasi-)jobless households increased from 7.5% to 18.2%. In ES, the rate more than doubled from 6.6% to 15.7%. Figure 60: Population living in (quasi-)jobless households (i.e. very low work intensity households) (age 0-59), 2013 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC); Note: 2012 data has been used for IE. Approximately 13 million people live in low work intensity households and are at risk of poverty. When comparing with 2008 (Figure 61), the latest data shows that worsening trends are observed in almost half of the Member States. Real improvements (from high levels) are observed in several MS (BG, EE, HR, LV, FI, UK) but it is important to consider that this is a measure of the income 127 People living in (quasi-)jobless households (i.e. with very low work intensity) are people aged 0-59 living in households where the adults work less than 20% of their total work potential during the past year. 129 situation of the ones further away from the labour market while their living conditions (e.g. material deprivation) might show a more attenuated picture. Figure 61: Evolution of the at-risk-of-poverty rate of (quasi-) jobless households (0-59), 2008 and 2013 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 BG CZ EE HR LV RO FI UK Poverty risk of the (quasi-) jobless households is decreasing DK DE IE LT NL AT BE EL FR Poverty risk of the (quasi-) jobless households is stable 2013 IT CY LU HU MT PL PT SI SK SE Poverty risk of the (quasi-) jobless households is increasing 2008 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC); 2012 data has been used for IE, and 2010 instead of 2008 for HR In comparing the poverty risk of jobless households for households with and without children (see Figure 62), the overall trend is that (quasi-) jobless households with children have a much higher poverty risk with SK, SI, HU, RO, PT, EL, FR, CZ and SE where the difference is largest (between 3041 pp). DK, DE and to a lesser extent UK and LV, are the only Member States where (quasi-) jobless households with dependent children are more protected from poverty risk. Single people and single parents in particular represent a larger share of those living in jobless and poor households 130 Figure 62: At-risk-of-poverty rate for the (quasi-) jobless by household type, 2013 or latest available year 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 DK UK NL IE* FI DE AT CY LU LV CZ RO LT MT HR BE Without children 2013 IT HU ES PL EL FR PT BG SI EE SE SK With children 2013 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC); 2012 data has been used for IE. European Commission analysis (2014) shows that those living in jobless and at risk of poverty households tend more often to be women than men (53% vs 47%). There are slightly more young people and elderly. Middle age adults (aged25-50) account for 57% of those living in (quasi)jobless and poor households, and 62% of the whole population. Those with a low education level tend also to be more represented among those living in (quasi-) jobless households at risk of poverty (44%) while representing only 22% of the total 18-59 population. There are slightly more migrants (14%) compared with the total 18-59 population of migrants (9%). With regards to their activity status, most are mainly unemployed (41%) with the remainder being shared between students aged over 25 (11%), retired but younger than 60 (3%), disabled (13%) and adults fulfilling domestic tasks (15%). 3.4.3 Policies, best practices and evidence-based responses Some of the main barriers to labour market integration of people on long-term unemployment include: Low level/lack of qualifications; outdated qualifications not matching labour market requirements, with a risk of skills obsolescence increasing with the length of unemployment Low motivation and resignation after prolonged periods of unemployment and low employability due to lack of work habits; limited knowledge of job search techniques Disincentives to work (e.g. linked with tax-benefit systems) 131 Barriers affecting the capacity to find work: poor public transport, lack of child care facilities, health issues Lack of 'life skills' resulting from socialisation in a disadvantaged family or neighbourhood and/or from school drop-outs and failures in one‘s career In order to overcome these barriers, social protection systems need to be modernised and provide a combination of well-designed adequate income support (minimum income, housing benefit…) which does not result in unemployment/inactivity traps, quality enabling services (childcare, elderly care, transport problems, debt-counselling, health issues…) and activating measures. Early and preventative support should also be provided to those at risk of becoming long-term unemployed. Tackling these barriers calls for a comprehensive approach to labour market integration (e.g. access to child-care, public transport or health counselling). There is evidence128 that well-designed policies can make a difference when it comes to transitioning out of unemployment. Participation in training and ALMPs by unemployed persons improves their transition rates out of unemployment. However, participation in training is currently limited in many Member States, particularly among low and medium skilled workers. Another finding is the positive effect of being registered with the public employment service, particularly when receiving unemployment benefits. As the focus of this background paper is on the social protection perspective, and more specifically, on the role of activating and enabling benefits and services, the following section will look at the role of unemployment benefits and minimum income schemes and their link to activation, as well as, at the role of other enabling benefits and services. Finally it will examine the importance of comprehensive policy responses and individualised services. 3.4.3.1 The role of unemployment benefits Besides activation measures there is a need to provide income support for individuals and households that have lost their jobs and incomes. Unemployment benefits (both contributory and non-contributory) act as a cushion to sudden income losses. In this respect, unemployment benefits are vital to keep households on a lifeline and avoid loss of human capital. A recent assessment of the unemployment benefit systems in the EU129 reveals some interesting dynamics on the structure and nature of unemployment benefit systems. Within the EU, there are groups of countries with relatively homogenous benefit systems. Nordic and Continental countries are characterised by relatively generous unemployment benefit systems both in terms of entitlement conditions and income support per unemployed. In both groups, activation and active labour market policies have a prominent role, with job search conditionality being strong especially 128 European Commission (2012). Employment and social developments in Europe 2012. 129 Stovichek, K. and Turrini, A. (2012). Benchmarking unemployment benefit systems. European Commission, Economic Papers 454. 132 in Nordic countries. In Anglo-Saxon countries, unemployment insurance benefits are relatively modest, while unemployment assistance plays a major role. Monitoring of job-search activity is strict whilst active labour market policies play a less important role. In Southern countries, access to unemployment insurance is strict and benefit generosity varies widely depending on age and contribution period. Finally, Central and Eastern countries tend to exhibit a tight unemployment benefit system both in terms of benefit support per unemployed and benefit coverage. Although replacement rates at the beginning of the unemployment spell can be high in some cases, benefits drop sharply over the unemployment spell. Strict conditions on job search and availability often apply. The overall generosity of unemployment benefit systems exhibits a high degree of variation across EU countries. In most Member States the theoretical adequacy of unemployment benefits, as measured by the net replacement rates, is improved by the presence of the children in the household and decreases with unemployment spells. The net replacement for families not entitled to cash housing assistance or social assistance ranges from below 40% in CZ, LT, SK and the UK to over 75% in DK, NL and PT. The provision of cash housing assistance or social assistance improves the net replacements rates significantly in some Member States, especially in CZ, LV, and the UK (Figure 63). Figure 63: Net replacements of unemployment benefits for families entitled versus not entitled to cash housing assistance or social assistance, 2010 Source: European Commission (2014, forthcoming); DG EMPL calculations based on OECD-EC tax-benefit model 3.4.3.2 The role of minimum income schemes Minimum income schemes (MI) provide cash benefits to ensure a minimum standard of living for individuals (and their dependants) that have either no other means of financial support, or whose resources fall short of a given level, despite including contributory cash benefits and support from other family members. MI schemes are considered as ‗schemes of last resort.‘ They provide a safety net to protect people from destitution if they are not eligible for social insurance benefits, or 133 are no longer entitled to such benefits. They play an even more important role in a crisis, when the rise in unemployment has already had an impact on social assistance schemes.130 Almost all EU countries have some form of MI scheme at national level. Member States that do not have one, such as Italy, have some sort of scheme at regional or local level. These are generally conceived as a short-term form of assistance, though in most Member States, they are not formally time-limited. They are means-tested and funded through the tax system (i.e. noncontributory). They are intended mainly for people out of work, but some Member States (CY, DE, LT, FR, PT, RO, SI, SE and IE) have extended their scope to provide in-work income support. In most Member States, MI schemes are designed at national level, while delivery is delegated to the local authorities.131 An examination of various national definitions132 shows that most Member States use a statutory minimum level of income, fixed by the (national, regional, local) legislator or government. Further classifications are possible along territorial arrangements, type of benefits (cash vs. in-kind), and existence of top-ups (or income tapers). Minimum income benefits in general are adjusted periodically.133 In none of the Member States is the minimum income level linked to national minimum wage. The design of MI schemes varies widely among Member States. In terms of comprehensiveness (i.e. the extent to which MI schemes are non-categorical, thus applying to those on low incomes in general, rather than to specific subgroups), four ‗broad‘ groups of countries can be distinguished.134 - Group 1 (AT, BE, CY, CZ, DE, DK, FI, NL, PT, RO, SI, SE) is characterised by relatively simple and comprehensive MI schemes, generally open to those without sufficient means to live in dignity. - Group 2 is smaller (EE, HU, LT, LV, PL, SK). It has simple and non-categorical135 MI schemes accompanied by more restricted eligibility conditions. 130 Social assistance (SA) schemes represent the broader category including MI benefits together with other types of benefits such as housing benefits, child benefits and unemployment assistance benefits. 131 In a few Member States, like Austria and Hungary, responsibility for policy decisions on SA benefit levels and eligibility conditions is partly delegated to regional/local governments. 132 MISSOC Analysis (2011). Guaranteed Minimum Resources, MISSOC Secretariat for the European Commission, Contract nr. VC/2010/1131. 133 Most Member States do automatic adjustments following changes in the consumer price index (in some countries an increase will only take place if the consumer index is raised by a certain percentage (CZ, LU, BE)). Some Member States will only adjust at irregular intervals after a decision by the government (LT, EE), while in other countries this will depend on the available budgetary resources (BG, LV). However, the periodicity of adjustment varies from every 6 months (SI, NL), to each year (almost all Member States), up to once every 3 years (PL), or at irregular intervals (LT, EE). Source: MISSOC Analysis 2011. 134 Frazer H. and E. Marlier (2009) ‗Minimum income schemes across EU Member States. Synthesis Report‘. 135 Access to categorical benefits is restricted based on some personal characteristics (single, with children, etc.) noncategorical benefits are benefits with no restriction based on personal characteristics. . 134 - Group 3 (ES, FR,136 IE, MT, UK137) is characterised by a complex set of different and often categorical schemes that sometimes overlap but generally cover most of those with insufficient means. - Finally, there is a small group of countries with limited, partial or piecemeal arrangements only covering narrow categories of people (BG, IT, EL). Eligibility conditions (commonly related to age, nationality, residence, lack of financial resources and availability for work) vary significantly. In some Member States, where there are only piecemeal and categorical schemes, there are people on very low incomes that do not have access to any form of MI scheme. Over the past years many Member States have tightened eligibility conditions.138 Conditionality has generally been increased and availability for work has usually been more tightly enforced for those are fit to work. There are often sanctions if beneficiaries fail to comply with the requirement that they must be available for work. Sanctions may lead to reductions in benefits, and to the loss of the right to SA benefits in more extreme cases. There is also a trend towards a stronger link between income support through MI schemes and activation measures including vocational training, job search assistance, and counselling. MI schemes are of unlimited duration in all Member States. They are granted for as long as a person is in need of support, and need is monitored by regular checks that beneficiaries do indeed fulfil eligibility conditions. National MI schemes differ as regards the duration for which benefits are available after each application, so the frequency with which a claimant has to reapply varies. For example, in FR the Revenu de solidarité active (RSA) has to be renewed after three months, in BG, SI and LV after six months, while in PT, the period is 12 months.139 Considering overall income support, it should be noted that in some Member States, MI claimants also receive additional assistance for specific needs, such as housing benefits, contributions to fuel costs and means-tested child benefits. Though not formally classified as ‗guaranteed MI benefits‘ these do contribute to the level of income that is actually guaranteed to people supported by MI schemes. The theoretical adequacy of social assistance can be measured by the net income of people on social assistance relative to the poverty threshold (Figure 64). Countries differ substantially in terms of the minimum safety nets they provide to workless households, even relative to the at-risk-ofpoverty threshold, which depends on the living standards within each country. Only a few 136 This has improved with the introduction of the Revenu de solidarité active in 2009. 137 Although some of this complexity is being addressed in the UK by the gradual introduction of Universal Credit. 138 A follow-up survey, conducted in autumn 2011 and spring 2012, on the implementation of the active inclusion strategies at national level (based on pre-filled questionnaires complemented by MS information) found that more countries have implemented stricter eligibility criteria for minimum income (CZ, FR HU, PT, RO, UK) compared to those that relaxed eligibility (MT, LT) in the examined period (2008-2012). 139 MISSOC database for 2011. 135 countries provide households with a minimum income and related benefits (for example housing) that are sufficient to lift them close to, or above, the 60% median income threshold, and this is true only for some family types. Figure 64: Net income of people living on social assistance relative to median income, 2010 80 Net income of people living on social assistance relative to median equivalised income (including cash housing assistance) 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 IE DK UK NL FI DE MT LU SE AT BE CZ LV SI FR PT PL HU EE ES SK RO BG Source: OECD-EC tax-benefit model 3.4.3.3 The link between activation and income support Active labour market policies help ensure that unemployment and social assistance benefit recipients and other jobseekers have a better chance of finding employment than they would otherwise have. Key features of such policies140 are to establish and enforce work-availability and mutual obligation requirements, meaning that benefit recipients are expected to engage in active job search and improve their employability in exchange for receiving efficient employment services and benefit payment. By improving skills, they are better able to return to "reduce the risk of long term marginalization from the labour market." (Gallie and Paugam 2000). Overall, the effective integration of activation policies and unemployment benefit systems are seen as crucial in containing the potential disincentive effects of benefits141. Measures to increase access to and intensity of employment are widespread, particularly in response to the economic and financial crisis. These measures usually fall under the broad category of active labour market policies (ALMPs). Shared characteristics of ALMPs in Member 140 See www.oecd.org/els/employment/almp 141 This is confirmed by various macro-econometric evaluation studies that found evidence for interactions between activation policies and other policies, for instance that spending on activation policies mitigates the impact on higher unemployment benefits in rising unemployment (Bassaninin and Duval 2006). 136 States are profiling, job counselling, educational training and (re-)qualification.142 Subsidised employment, public work programmes, short-term paid employment, traineeships and voluntary work are among ways of reintegrating people into work. While all Member States have policies for the unemployed and job seekers generally, the degree to which these target those who are furthest from the labour market (e.g. social assistance recipients) varies substantially. However, some Member States (BE, DE, AT, FI, LU, PL, SI) specifically target these recipients by means of separate programmes. Among the unemployed and recipients of social assistance and activation policies, Member States often identify different sub-targets for ALPMs, among which young and older workers, low-skilled and long-term unemployed, migrants and people with disabilities. For example, IE targets older workers, while the UK targets young people within the Jobseeker‘s Allowance scheme. DK and SE have separate schemes for older workers and young unemployed people. Measures currently in place in DE, SK, SI and ES tend to focus on the long-term unemployed. An overwhelming majority of Member States143 link the right to income support to the willingness to work and a minimum commitment to seeking a job, vocational or occupational training. In SK, proving one‘s willingness to work and to accept a suitable job is only compulsory when applying for the highest level of income support benefit.144 The conditions under which job seekers have to accept a job offer varies across Member States. In CZ and DE, job seekers are required to accept any job, even if it is short-term, or a mismatch with their skills. In LV, EE, SK, MT and NL145, job seekers are obliged to accept suitable work only (subject to the relevant authority‘s assessment). ‗Reluctant behaviours or attitudes‘ such as refusing a job offer or refusing to take part in ALMPs are generally penalised by sanctions. These vary, and include withdrawal of benefits and grants (e.g. in EE, SI, LT, CZ, EE), withdrawal of benefits (e.g. BG, CY, HU), suspension of benefits (e.g. LT, DK) or lowering the level of benefits (LV, IE). If a job seeker is unable to find work, most Member States offer vocational or occupational training. Some also provide various counselling services which can cover advice to manage debt or addiction or psychological support (DE) during drug or alcohol rehabilitation (MT). In SI, job seekers may have to sign a contract with the Social Work Centre to take part in social and/or health programmes (SI). In other countries such as LU, an ‗integration allowance‘ is available only if job seekers take part in an ‗integration activity‘. In NL, a young person who is not in employment 142 For a classification by type of action see Eurostat (2010). Labour market policy — expenditure and participants. 143 MISSOC Analysis (2011). Guaranteed Minimum Resources, MISSOC Secretariat for the European Commission, Contract nr. VC/2010/1131, Page 17. 144 145 MISSOC Analysis (2011). In the NL any job will have to be accepted after 12 months of unemployment. 137 or education (NEET) has the right to request a job or an offer of a place in education from the local municipality.146 If occupational or vocational training is not successful, some public administrations provide (mandatory) measures to ensure activation (RO, BG, NL, LV, HU). This may mean compulsory involvement in public works147 (e.g. providing social services, cleaning). This dimension should in many cases be complemented in order to improve job seekers‘ prospects of finding work, to avoid locking them into such schemes (LV, HU).148 Back-to-work benefits (such as gradual phasing out of income support, tax allowances and in-work benefits) and earnings disregards (income that is disregarded when it comes to assessing tax liability) complement ALMPs in making it more attractive to take a job. Taxing labour income is a prominent element of every Member State‘s tax policy. So it is important to understand the underlying relationship between taxation and labour supply. Evidence suggests that secondary earners are much more responsive to wages (and thus taxes) than primary earners. If the tax burden is too high, secondary earners might decide they are better off not working, or (more rarely), working fewer hours.149 Disincentives can also stem from joint taxation. 3.4.3.4 The role of enabling services in reducing labour market barriers Active labour market services, aimed at increasing employability and attractiveness on the labour market, are essential for providing opportunities for employment. However, these services are often not enough to overcome remaining non-work related barriers to employment and job seeking activities, e.g. access to child-care, public transport and health counselling. Pairing both active labour market services with enabling support services increase possibilities and decrease obstacles to gaining and taking up employment. Provision of these services to long-term unemployed should be combined with access to benefits or social assistance to ensure basic financial support. Connection between support given by service providers and participation in the offered services is strengthened, with all parties being linked by mutual obligations to the fulfilment of the contract. A key success factor is strengthened cooperation and coordination between all relevant actors (such as PES, authorities managing cash benefits and related support services, social partners, 146 The recently adopted Youth Employment Package aims to tackle the phenomenon of NEET at Member State level. For more information see: COM(2012) 727 final. 147 European Commission (2013). Public works – does it work? Issue paper prepared by DG EMPL, unit E5. 148 Commission Staff Working Documents, Assessment of the 2012 national reform programme and convergence programme for Hungary and Latvia, SWD(2012) 317 final, SWD(2012) 320 final. 149 In the US, for every 10 % reduction in after-tax wages, primary earners work about 1 % fewer hours, for an elasticity of labour supply with respect to after-tax wages of 0.1. Secondary earners are much more responsive to wages (and thus taxes), with elasticities of labour supply with respect to after-tax wages estimated to range from 0.5 to 1. Source: Gruber (2011) Public finance and public policy, Third edition, Worth Publishers, pp. 628. 138 private employment services, social welfare centres, NGOs, municipalities, training and education providers). This is because the jobless households and long-term unemployed have various barriers (e.g. care needs, income support, reskilling, counselling support, employment opportunities) which are addressed by a variety of actors. While there is no overarching indicator on access to enabling services, there is information on access on four main service areas: early childhood education and care (ECEC), life-long learning, housing, and healthcare (seeFigure 65 below). The overall picture on access to services is rather mixed. On the one hand, the Scandinavian and Western European countries are characterized by relatively high access to services (with some notable exceptions such as Austria in case of ECEC or France in life-long learning150). On the other end of the spectrum are the Member States from Eastern Europe that are characterized by low access across the board. Figure 65: Indicators on access to enabling services (2010) Source: Employment and Social Developments in Europe Review (2013) 150 Although caution is needed with the figure for life-long learning as after a break in the time series in 2013 the figure for life-long learning for France in 2013 is much higher (17.7% in 2013). 139 Description of the set of indicators used to describe access to services Source: Employment and Social Developments (2013) Note: Figures refer to the year 2010. Example of Member States‘ efforts in supporting social welfare services: the case of Estonia In order to guarantee the quality and purposefulness of rehabilitation service, Estonia is splitting the service into two components: vocational rehabilitation and social rehabilitation. Such division enables to offer better-targeted services that result in higher effectiveness. Persons with partial capability of work receive rehabilitation services that are linked with their (possible) employment. Estonia also continues to implement a counselling services project for people with multiple problems and their family members. The target is people whose income is below or who are at risk of falling below absolute poverty line, who are recipients of subsistence benefit and have some additional problems (for example care burden, low social skills, low educational attainment, health problems, debts, insufficient social skills, etc.) that can be obstacles to participate in the labour market or may have difficulties with everyday coping are entitled to the services. In 2013, 45% of people who participated in the project maintained their job or started working and 27% started participating in active labour market measures. The project has significantly improved the use of the case management method in local governments. Based on the positive experience so far, the project will widen the scope of services that are offered in counselling centres, including specific experts (lawyers, clinical psychologists, psychiatrist and social pedagogues) in the network that delivers counselling services. 3.4.3.5 The need for a comprehensive policy approach targeted to individual needs The assessment of the active inclusion strategies151 at national level highlights the importance of a comprehensive policy response to the rising unemployment and the resulting poverty, as well as 151 European Commission Communication of 20 February 2013 Towards Social Investment for Growth and Cohesion – including implementing the European Social Fund 2014-2020, CSWD 39 final. 140 of an early intervention for those at risk of becoming unemployed. The assessment clearly shows that Member States with robust social protection systems characterised by adequate income support, high coverage of unemployment and social assistance, access to enabling services, and strong activation policies have weathered much better the crisis. The provision of such comprehensive policy response might be favoured by the use of individualised integration contracts, the coordination of employment and social services, and/or the setting-up of one-stop shops. The particular case of jobless households and long term unemployed, which often times combine a number of disadvantages, is a good example of the need for comprehensive measures to address the problem. It is important to contrast the social isolation and reach out to these families in order to connect them to the community. To these aim social services and particularly family centres offer good opportunity of (first) contact. Support for improving parenting and life capacities can be a first step to improve employability, as it has a direct effect on self-esteem and therefore on attitude. Often times these households are households with dependent children. IN relation to this, a recent review of activation policies in OECD countries (Martin 2014) finds that activation measures have been most effective for unemployment benefit recipients and also for recipients of sole-parent benefits when assistance is provided with child care. Support for the labour market integration of the unemployed should be tailored around the individuals' needs and offer options which meet their skills and interests and avoid placing individuals into predetermined employment pathways. A correct assessment of skills and placement into different streams (e.g. through profiling) could allow to better tailor these services. Unemployed individuals must be transparently informed and aware of each step concerning their reinsertion path in order to improve their sense of ownership. 3.4.4 Results of the thematic in-depth review The second thematic review of the 2014 SPPM 'trends to watch' focused on long-term exclusion from the labour market and the role of activating and enabling benefits and services for addressing it. The participating countries (DK, LT, BG and IE) outlined different challenges and policy approaches in addressing long-term unemployment. These conclusions draw on the results from this review. Long-term unemployed people form a heterogeneous group with specific and different obstacles such as health concerns, difficulty in reconciling work and family life, social problems, or lack of skills. Understanding the profile of the target population is crucial to effectively implement policies and support their re-integration into the labour market. Measures to fight LTU need to take a comprehensive approach tailored around individual needs to be effective, including targeted activation, adequate income support and enabling services. Profiling can help to develop better targeted measures. Early intervention and preventative support to those at risk of becoming longterm unemployed is also important. 141 The potential of education and up-skilling in bringing people back into jobs differs in relation to the profile of the target population, their educational background, their potential and the concrete labour market situation. Skill mismatches cannot always be reduced. In some cases, there is no sufficient labour demand even for the highly skilled and educated long-term unemployed. Not all job seekers should be dealt with in the same way; one has to look at specific characteristics and see how these are best addressed. Specific groups need more attention and are often not sufficiently covered by the services of the public employment and other job search services. For example, the activation measures and training offers often do not suit the specific labour market needs of LTU with high education levels. Both the individual and the household perspective need to be taken into consideration. In fact, jobless households are often confronted with a combination of multiple social problems. Better investigation and monitoring of the dynamics of jobless households and the way households enter and exit joblessness is needed. Single parents form another fragile group on the labour market, especially if coming from a low education and socially disadvantaged background. People with disabilities, having a right to be integrated into the labour market, provide additional challenges for public employment services. Activation measures for people living in rural / remote areas are often underdeveloped; targeted investment is needed to compensate their difficulties in accessing the labour market. Flexible approaches, in which people are supported to take up work also for a limited number of hours per week, depending to their capacities, can be a stepping stone to more complete labour market integration. For such an approach to work, it is crucial to motivate people to work gradually more hours and increase labour market participation. An active role by employers is also necessary. First experiences show that employers might indeed be willing to use and interested in such flexible approaches. The design of the level and duration of benefits, contributory-based unemployment benefits, minimum income as well as related benefits, should ensure an adequate income while at the same time avoiding unemployment or inactivity traps. Reforms also need to ensure an adequate transition between unemployment benefits and minimum income schemes and an effective coverage. Supporting reintegration into the labour market requires linking these benefits to activating and enabling services. Reforms to tax and benefit systems can encourage employment by removing financial disincentives and ensuring smooth transitions into the labour market. Provide additional incentives for people to accept work such as receiving social benefits during the first months of employment in addition to their pay can help transition and cover initial extra costs in taking up work. Systems should avoid having an excessive number of people permanently on assistance schemes and help to increase the returns on investment in continuous activation measures. This can include also targeted support for persons in vulnerable situations and / or those with care duties allowing them more flexibility between employment gains and access to benefits. There is potential value added of customised packages for services and ensuring a proper implementation of a "rights and 142 obligation" approach in receiving benefits. Experience in some Member State shows that reducing the maximum duration of unemployment benefits can bring people quicker into employment, but the effects in long-term labour market integration require close monitoring. It is key that those who remain unemployed keep enrolled in active labour market schemes. This requires a closer cooperation between employment and social services. Activation measures/ enabling services need to be timely, effective and efficient; for this monitoring and evaluation is key. The efficiency and effectiveness of public employment services and social services as well as the individual role, responsibility and workload of case handlers/employment promoters are a crucial factor. Also the cooperation and coordination between employment and social services to provide a more integrated support to long-term unemployed often needs improvement. Good practice examples are dedicated teams at local level, composed of different services and discussing individual cases, can ensure better coordinated support. A 'one-stop shop' approach can simplify and streamline the service and improve take-up. Depending on the governance structure, empowering the municipal/local authorities can strengthen the offer and effectiveness of activation measures. 4. The 2014 social trends to watch This year‘s summary of the results from the analysis of the key social indicators included in the Social Protection Performance Monitor dashboard (Figure 66), show the following main trends to watch for the most recent period (2012-2013): increases in the risk of poverty for the overall population (registered in 8 MS) and in the depth of poverty as proxied by the poverty gap (registered in 10 MS) continued rises in the share of (quasi-) jobless households (registered in 11 MS) increasing housing cost overburden rate (in 9 MS) declines in real gross household disposable income (in 11 MS) increase in the working poor (8 MS). These social trends to watch are partly balanced by positive developments in the following areas: rising labour market participation of older workers (increase of the employment rate for 55-64 year olds in 18 MS) improving income and living conditions situation of the elderly (improvements in 15 MS) some improvement in the severe material deprivation rate (in 11 MS) and the risk of poverty or social exclusion for the overall population (in 11 MS) further reductions in the rate of early school leavers (in 10 MS) 143 some improvement in the situation of the working poor (in 7 MS) and in the risk of poverty or social exclusion among children (8 MS). Compared to the results from last year‘s edition of the SPPM, there is a more nuanced picture across the EU with more mixed signs of developments in the living conditions of the population across Member States, although trends in the share of (quasi-) jobless households, the risk and depth of poverty, the evolution in household disposable income and housing cost overburden remain mainly negative. Figure 66: Social trends to watch and areas of improvement for the period 2012-2013 Source: Social Protection Performance Monitor Note: i) No 2013 EU-SILC data for IE, so IE has not been considered for the evolutions with regard to SILC indicators. ii) For 2013 SILC-data ES registered a major break in series for the EU-SILC income variables. As a result, income related indicators are not comparable to 2012 for this country and ES has therefore not been considered in the trends to watch for these indicators. iii) For the ―persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate‖ most figures are for the change 2011-2012, but where figures for 2013 are available (AT, CZ, DK, EE, FI, HU, MT and SI) the changes 2012-2013 are used. 144 Figure 67 shows the evolution since the beginning of the Europe 2020 strategy. For most social areas, the situation has worsened considerably as a result of the economic crisis. The areas with the most substantial deterioration are: youth exclusion (significant increases in NEETs and youth unemployment ratio in almost all MS) (long term) exclusion from the labour market (increases in the long term unemployment rate and in the share of the population in (quasi-) jobless households in more than 2/3 of MS), together with rises in the poverty risk for (quasi-) jobless households in 14 MS child poverty and social exclusion (with 19 MS registering increases with reference to 2008) increasing income inequality (in 13 MS) rising housing cost overburden rate for households (in 15 MS) declines in real gross household disposable income (in 11 MS) increases in self-reported unmet need for medical care (9 MS) increase in the level and the depth of poverty and deterioration in living conditions (increases in the at-risk-of-poverty rate in 1/3 of MS and in the severe material deprivation rate and the poverty gap in around 2/3 of MS, increases in the overall at risk of poverty or social exclusion rate in ½ of all MS). There have been also a number of improvements, notably in the areas of increasing number of healthy life years, especially among men, and significant decreases in the number of early school leavers in Europe (in 20 MS). The labour market situation of older workers has also improved markedly, as evidenced by improvements in the employment rate for the age group 55-64 in 2/3 of Member States. The relative situation of the elderly aged 65 and over also shows clear signs of improvement in almost all MS, with decreases in the number of elderly living in poverty or social exclusion as well as the improvement of their income situation with respect to the rest of the population. However, this trend should be read with great caution as it does not necessarily show improvement in absolute terms. As pension income remained stable during the economic crisis while the working age population suffered from substantial income loss (wage decreases, job loss, decrease in benefit levels), the relative, but not necessarily the absolute, position of the elderly has improved, highlighting the important role of pension systems. 145 Figure 67: Social trends to watch and areas of improvement for the period 2008-2013 Source: Social Protection Performance Monitor Note: i) Latest data available for Ireland refers to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) For ― the ―persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate‖ most figures are for the change 2008-2012, but where figures for 2013 are available (AT, CZ, DK, EE, FI, HU, MT and SI) the changes 2008-2013 are used. Figure 68 shows the number of key social indicators included in the SPPM dashboard for which a given country has registered a statistically significant deterioration over the period 2008 to 2013. The Member States with the most worrisome outcomes are CY, EL, ES and SI with deterioration on 15 indicators or more. At the other end of the scale, AT, CZ, DE and FI have only registered statistically significant deterioration on 4 or fewer indicators. 146 Figure 68: Number of SPPM key social indicators with a statistically significant deterioration between 2008 and 2013 by Member State Source: Social Protection Performance Monitor Note: i) Latest data available for Ireland for EU-SILC based indicators refers to 2012 and changes for those indicators refer to the period 2008-2012 only; ii) Major break in series in 2013 in ES for income variables in EU-SILC, so longer term changes for EU-SILC based income indicators refer to the period 2008-2012 only; iii) For UK, changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; iv) The bars refer to the number of SPPM indictors which have registered a statistically significant deterioration between 2008 and 2013 (for ―persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate‖ the period covered is instead 2008-2012 due to data availability). 147 5. SPPM dashboard 148 Note: i) Only statistically significant evolutions have been highlighted. Eurostat calculations on statistical significance of net change have been used for the following indicators: for the period 2012-2013 – AROPE, AROP, SMD, (quasi-)jobless households (i.e. VLWI households), persistent poverty rate, IWP, Children AROPE, AROPE 65+, AROP in (quasi-)jobless households, housing cost overburden rate, for the period 2008-2013 – AROPE, persistent poverty rate. In all the remaining cases (except for real GHDI growth where any non-zero result is shown as significant) a 1pp threshold has been used for all indicators but the indicators based on ratios and the healthy life years indicators for which a 5% threshold has been used as specified in the SPPM methodological paper approved by the SPC. ii) No 2013 data for IE for SILC-based indicators, so for these figures refer to 2012 and changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iii) Breaks in series in 2013 for all EU-SILC income-based indicators for ES, so no latest year changes are shown while longer term changes are presented for the period 2008-2012 only; iv) For UK, changes in the EU-SILC survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious. 149 Summary table of the statistical significance rules applied for each SPPM indicator Significance thresholds used Indicator change 2012-2013 change 2008-2013 At risk of poverty or social exclusion (in %) Estat estimates Estat estimates At-risk-of-poverty rate (in %) Estat estimates >+-1pp >+-5% >+-5% Severe material deprivation rate (in %) Estat estimates >+-1pp Population living in (quasi-)jobless (i.e. very low work intensity) households (in %) Estat estimates >+-1pp At-risk-of-poverty threshold for a single person household (in pps) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (in %) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate (in %) Income quantile ratio (S80/S20) Children at risk of poverty or social exclusion (in %) >+-1pp >+-1pp Estat estimates Estat estimates >+-5% >+-5% Estat estimates >+-1pp >+-5% >+-5% At-risk-of-poverty rate for the population living in (quasi-) jobless households (in %) Estat estimates >+-1pp In-work at-risk-of-poverty rate (in %) Estat estimates >+-1pp Long-term unemployment rate (in %) >+-1pp >+-1pp Early school leavers (in %) >+-1pp >+-1pp Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) >+-1pp >+-1pp NEET (18-24) >+-1pp >+-1pp Employment rate for older workers (55-64), in % >+-1pp >+-1pp Estat estimates >+-1pp Median relative income ratio of elderly people >+-5% >+-5% Aggregate replacement ratio >+-5% >+-5% Self-reported unmet need for medical care >+-1pp >+-1pp Healthy life years at 65 - males n.a. >+-5% Healthy life years at 65 - females n.a. >+-5% Estat estimates >+-1pp + or - + or - Impact of social transfers (excluding pensions) on poverty reduction (in %) At risk of poverty or social exclusion rate for the elderly (65+), in % Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income (in %) 150 6. Views of the European Social Partners UEAPME comments: Draft Annual Report of the Social Protection Committee on the social situation in the EU General comments UEAPME, the European Association of Crafts and SMEs, welcomes the in-depth analysis of social policy challenges and trends of the SPC report, which complements other publications, such as the annual Joint Employment Report. The economic recovery still remains fragile with weak and uneven signs of growth, and high unemployment levels, including notably long-term unemployment. In relation to this, poverty and social exclusion have risen over the past few years in most Member States, which translates into little progress in reaching the EU‘s social poverty target. Further efforts are needed by Member States in line with the integrated approach of the Annual Growth Survey on boosting investments, structural reforms and growthfriendly fiscal responsibility. The findings show that those countries with less segmented labour markets, solid industrial relations and ―strong‖ welfare systems have tended to fare better during the crisis. However, we consider that more focus should be put on effectiveness, efficiency and sustainability of social protection spending, since many countries are affected by tighter budgets and have to achieve better results with fewer resources. Specific comments UEAPME agrees that structural long-term unemployment which has been exacerbated by the crisis is a major driver of increasing trends in poverty and social exclusion. In fact, it has more than doubled since 2008, and is continuing to rise with the worrying phenomenon of ―very-long term unemployment‖, i.e. over two years constituting about 60% of the total long-term unemployed. This bears a significant risk of individuals not returning to the labour market at all. SMEs play a vital role for job creation and contributing to social cohesion at local level. On the demand side, further efforts are needed to create a more favourable business environment including in relation to employment regulation, and support investments for small enterprises in accordance with the Juncker Investment Plan. On the supply side, work needs to be made more attractive. Diverse contractual arrangements are a stepping stone into the labour market. Wages should be in line with productivity and taxes shifted from labour. Non-wage labour costs should be reduced in particular for 151 low-skilled or low-paid workers, and those affected by in work-poverty to provide incentives to stay in work. 152 Individually targeted Active Labour Market Policies policies, including early activation, are vital to cater for different groups. However, the report shows differences in the EU, for example that only a number of Member States is taking into account the needs of those furthest from the labour market. We believe this should be extended to all Member States. ALMP need to be implemented in an integrative manner with well-functioning public employment services and enabling support services, such as childcare or transport. ALMP should also focus on matching labour supply and demand by helping unemployed to be retrained and to acquire skills needed on the labour market. In this respect, we welcome that the role of social partners has been identified as one of the key success factors regarding cooperation with relevant actors to tackle labour market barriers and hence achieve more inclusive labour markets. 15.9% of all young people are not in employment, education or training, and they are also at highest risk of poverty among all age groups. They are also much likely to have low levels of education, compared to their age cohort. It is thus urgent to speed-up implementation of the Youth Guarantee and the Youth Employment Initiative. UEAPME stresses that it requires addressing administrative bottlenecks, possible pre-financing issues, and continuous reforms of labour markets and education and training systems, in order to improve basic skills, tackle skills mismatches, and ensure a greater focus on learning outcomes in line with labour market needs. In this context, EU social partners have adopted their first implementation report on the Framework of Actions on Youth Employment152, which demonstrates a wide range of social partner activities on promoting learning, transitions, employment and entrepreneurship for young people. On a positive note, some progress has been achieved in lowering early school leaving. As highlighted in the report, there is a positive link between human capital, productivity and growth. In our view, social protection policies should therefore further improve the link to enhancing skills and competences across the lifecycle, including to prevent exclusion. Quality vocational training and work-based learning, also at a higher level, have proven to facilitate transitions from education to the labour market, and more should be done to support SMEs as key providers of apprenticeships, workbased and informal learning. We note favourably some improvements for older workers, including female older workers, which have led to a higher effective retirement age. On pensions, findings show that Member States have had some success in better tackling early labour http://www.ueapme.com/IMG/pdf/1st-follow-up-report-FoA-Youth-Sept-2014-Final.pdf 152 market exits and linking retirement age to longevity, which also helps to promote the adequacy and sustainability of pensions. Yet more emphasis should lie on strengthening the development of occupational pensions and complementary private savings to ensure a more adequate retirement income spread across pillars, as well as providing incentives for companies to adapt workplaces. The European Social Fund plays an important role in tackling social exclusion. The report could be complemented with good practices of how Member States are efficiently using it for facilitating the effective reintegration of people into the labour market. 03/02/15 For further information please contact: Helen Hoffmann, Adviser for Social Affairs [email protected] UNION EUROPEENNE DE L’ARTISANAT ET DES PETITES ET MOYENNES ENTREPRISES EUROPÄISCHE UNION DES HANDWERKS UND DER KLEIN- UND MITTELBETRIEBE EUROPEAN ASSOCIATION OF CRAFT, SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES UNIONE EUROPEA DELL’ARTIGIANATO E DELLE PICCOLE E MEDIE IMPRESE 1 MAISON DE L'ECONOMIE EUROPEENNE - RUE JACQUES DE LALAINGSTRAAT 4 - B-1040 BRUXELLES TEL +32 (0)2 230 75 99 - FAX +32 (0)2 230 78 61 - E-MAIL [email protected] 153 General economic and social situation BUSINESSEUROPE shares the analysis in the SPC report that there is a slight improvement in the overall economic and social situation in the EU, however, whereas the report states that there has been strong growth in some countries, overall the economic recovery lacks momentum. Positively, the report states that there has been some growth in employment in most member states. But in BUSINESSEUROPE‘s view, overall this is still weak. While economic and employment growth continues at a slow pace, we are equally concerned about continuing high levels of unemployment, particularly in the euro area and among young people. Differences remain between member states in terms of the resilience of their social systems and labour markets to deal with the impact of the crisis. This is due to structural weaknesses that already existed before the crisis. We agree that well-functioning and efficient welfare systems, as well as effective industrial relations can have a positive impact. But in fact, what really made a difference is where countries undertook labour market reforms before the crisis – such countries, e.g. Germany, have fared better. Also, more recent structural labour market reforms have paid off – as evident in the positive growth figures for Spain (+0.5% in the 3rd quarter of 2014), Portugal (+0.3% in the 3nd quarter of 2014) and Ireland, which experienced the strongest Eurozone growth rate in 2014 - 4.8%. This compares with a 3% decline in 2008. There was also an increase in employment of 2% in Ireland last year. Therefore, there should be more focus on structural reforms to increase growth and ensure an employment-rich recovery. This is the basis for sustaining our already well-developed national social systems. The priority is to build consensus on a European framework for national labour market reforms. To achieve this, EU employment and social policies should mobilise relevant actors, available resources and tools in a consistent policy approach aiming to reach the 75% employment rate target by 2020. The conditions need to be right for European companies to be able to generate jobs, especially, as recognized in the report, since some groups (women, young people, older workers) c o n t i n u e to be under-represented in employment. The main issues to be addressed are unnecessary rigidities in labour law, excessively high non-wage labour costs and skills mismatches. Reducing the tax burden on labour, including targeted cuts in employer‘s social security contributions will encourage employers to hire more staff. We welcome the Eurogroup common principles for reforms which recommend reducing the tax wedge on labour and hope that this leads to concrete measures at national level. 154 As well as facilitating job creation, we agree that labour market activation measures are necessary. Despite costly employment policies, both in terms of passive and active support, the EU underperforms in terms of activating the unemployed. Further measures are needed to ensure that work is an economically attractive option compared to welfare benefits, especially for low- income earners, by reducing the tax wedge on employment to avoid unemployment traps. We agree on the importance of re-training workers to adapt skills to the labour market as well as programmes tailored to the individual, in particular to avoid those becoming long-term unemployed. Any new labour market activation measures should be accompanied by efforts to reduce obstacles for those persons who have difficulties entering the labour market, e.g. insufficient flexibility of employment resulting from special or enhanced protection, from dismissal and excessive red tape. We agree on the urgent need to tackle youth unemployment, but also the rising number of NEETs, to avoid losing an important contribution of human potential to the labour market. We note that whilst long-term unemployment for young people is often linked to a lack of qualifications and skills, the crisis has also increased the difficulties of young people with medium or high level qualifications. This highlights the ongoing problems of skills mismatch and lack of jobs. It is also no surprise for employers that overall vocational education systems with a strong component of work-based learning have been more successful in supporting young people in their transition from education and training to work. BUSINESSEUROPE is leading a project that aims to explore the business case for apprenticeships by focusing on the cost-effectiveness of apprenticeship schemes in the ICT, commerce and engineering sectors. Positively, there has been an increase in the employment rate of older workers, rightly recognizing that this is partly due to incentives to work longer, including tax and benefit reforms and financial incentives. Further improvements are possible and desirable, in particular in some countries – the EU could usefully facilitate learning between member states on this. We confirm that the increase in the employment rate is also due to the contribution of age management policies in companies. Social protection systems It is important to recall that social spending in Europe is high in global comparisons. We agree with the analysis that there are large differences between member states in the effectiveness of social spending, for example in alleviating poverty. More targeted and efficient use of social spending at national level should therefore be encouraged. It is also important to bear in mind the lack of access and take-up of social benefits in some cases, due to administrative complexities and lack of information. As identified in the 2015 Annual Growth Survey, social protection systems need to be modernised to effectively and efficiently address labour market exclusion. As highlighted in the SPC report, social protection systems need to provide a combination of well-designed adequate income 155 support, which does not result in unemployment/inactivity traps, quality enabling services and activating measures. Social protection schemes have acted as automatic stabilisers during the crisis. At the same time, the fact that the crisis has endured puts pressure on these systems and national budgets. Reducing unemployment helps to alleviate this pressure, through less use of unemployment benefit and social assistance schemes. In terms of reducing budget deficits, it is positive in 2014 that around 2/3 of member states recorded a persistent decrease in the number of unemployment benefit recipients compared to 2013, although, clearly this has to be looked at in terms of the number of those people entering employment, rather than moving into social assistance schemes. Minimum income schemes act as a last resort and exist in almost all member states. It is important that eligibility for such schemes is linked to availability for work and combined with activation measures. This is the case in some member states: progress was made in Spain with an employment activation programme agreed in collaboration with the Autonomous Communities; there have been positive changes in the Czech Republic, Portugal and Poland, where new instruments have been designed for certain groups and measures introduced to improve the functioning of Public Employment Services. However, progress has not been made in all member states and there is still a need to make systems more efficient. The EU could usefully facilitate benchmarking and exchange of experience between members states on this subject. Creating an EU framework in this area would not be appropriate given the diverse design, eligibility, and benefit levels of such schemes. Poverty We note the lack of progress to reach the EU2020 poverty target. At the same time, it is positive to note that the situation has improved in some member states. We note that this is part of a more nuanced picture across the EU in terms of the social situation and living conditions of the population. As has been seen throughout the crisis, those at risk of poverty are mainly of working age. This shows the correlation with the number of (quasi) jobless households and the rate of unemployment, as is also the case regarding a specific poverty indicator - the rate of severe material deprivation.153 We also note the rise in in-work poverty, although the situation is very different across EU member states. This shows the importance of well-designed automatic stabilizers. Poverty has a multi-dimensional nature, however ensuring access to employment remains the best solution. Other policies are also important, for example ensuring education and training systems equip people for the labour market. Reducing taxes on labour in particular for lower skilled jobs and boosting productivity of less productive jobs can both help to address in-work poverty and mitigate the increasing polarization of labour markets. When considering the possible role of 153 DG ECFIN Economic Brief May 2014 (figure 5). 156 minimum wages to reduce poverty, member states need to fully consider the impact on employment. High minimum wages create barriers to employment in particular for low skilled workers, thereby reducing their job opportunities. There are also differences between population groups – for example the situation of the elderly has improved in relative terms. This is due partly to stable pension income -the objective now must be to ensure longer working lives to make sure this is sustainable for future generations. Policy coordination We are convinced of the value of monitoring the progress made in national reforms, implementation of the EU2020 strategy, and of having a better understanding of social developments. This monitoring should provide accurate information for member states to adjust social protection systems, education and training systems and labour market regulations, where they do not perform well. Social partners at EU and national levels should be part of this monitoring process. There are divergences within the EU, in terms of labour market policies and outcomes, with more positive trends in some countries compared to others. The EU therefore has a role in facilitating learning between countries, with the aim of improving the functioning of labour markets across the board. To steer the reform process, the EU should set up a fresh approach on benchmarking. The Social Protection Committee should continue to provide a platform for such actions, through for example the in-depth thematic reviews. The European social partners should be better informed about and where appropriate involved in these activities. For more information, see BUSINESSEUROPE brochure Future of Social Europe. 157 European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) What is called a fragile or modest recovery of the economy is non- existent for millions of European citizens and workers still unemployed and / or in precarious working and living conditions. It is premature to speak of the (social) crisis being over while unemployment is still unacceptably high, long term unemployment is becoming increasingly structural, and poverty is still on the rise. This will lead to more political instability and unrest. The Greek election results clearly showed that a new Path for Europe is needed – something the ETUC has been calling for over the past few years. The actual SPC report takes stock of the social situation in Europe as does the latest Employment and Social Developments Report 2014. The ETUC shares the bleak picture drawn there as well as most of the concerns expressed in this report. In addition the ETUC would like to take the opportunity to complement and underline the following aspects: Economic forecast and labour market prospects The actual forecast underestimates the risk of deflation. An ambitious investment plan is needed to fight stagnation or deflation and generate employment in Europe. Reforms need to focus on quality jobs, raising wages and improving skills. Europe needs strong social investments. Social protection systems must not merely be reduced to instruments of adjustment in the context of fiscal consolidation. They serve another purpose mainly in providing a safety net, stabilising living conditions, reducing poverty and the at-risk-ofpoverty rate and contributing to aggregate demand. They are also important for activation and support measures for people to find their way into or back into work. It is worth making the link and quoting the actual ESDE 2014 report: ‗People receiving unemployment benefit schemes have a better chance of taking up a job than non-recipients and that adequate and widely available systems of income support do not prevent or discourage returns to employment… Research also shows that receiving adequate income support also provides workers with enough time to search for a job matching their skills and/or to strengthen those skills where necessary.‘ (ESDE, 2014, p. 27) 158 The ETUC proposes for example that social investment, for example in education, training, research and development, should be excluded from the calculation of public deficit and debt within the Stability and Growth Pact. In-work poverty and access to ALMP Long term (youth) unemployment is becoming an increasingly worrying trend in Europe which leads to a lot of negative consequences for the individual and society as a whole, not only in the short term but especially in a long term perspective and over an individual life span. Both the SPC report and the ESDE 2014 report effectively illustrate these detrimental effects. From an ETUC point of view it is necessary to highlight the fact that the jobs created in the last quarters are mainly temporary contracts and that the rise in involuntary part time work is considerable. This points directly to the fact that job quality in Europe has dramatically deteriorated. Therefore the ETUC calls on policy makers to place job quality, not just quantity, back on the agenda. All proposed EU economic governance measures must be assessed for their impact on employment and job quality, as well as their social impact. Europe cannot afford to become ‗competitive‘ via low wages, job insecurity and precarious employment. In-work poverty is the driving force behind increased poverty in general. ―ETUC/ETUI observed over the last five years the highest risk of poverty remains with households of single parents. However the AROP indicator increased substantially for households of single persons and of two adults without children, pointing to the fact that households of relatively young people are faced with the deterioration of their labour market prospects in prime working age.‖ (Benchmarking Working Europe, 2014 p.49) From a gender perspective there is an urgent need to assess poverty and in-work poverty not only at household level but also on an individual level because this leads directly to a variety of further questions related to access to social protection systems, eligibility criteria for active labour market instruments, adequacy of pension entitlements and so on. The question may be raised whether a concept of gender accounting over a working life could be considered a way forward to assess policy options and measures. The ETUC also supports the call from Employment and Social Affairs Ministers in the June 2014 Council Conclusions on "Women in the economy: economic independence from the perspective of part-time work and self-employment‖ for a pillar on gender equality within the Europe 2020 governance framework. Active Ageing The Active Ageing Agenda must be pursued at national and European level. Exchange of policies that work is crucial. The policy focus however should not be on extending the legal pension age but on how older workers can be assisted to remain in employment up to their pensionable age (raising the effective retirement age). This is a point which the SPC has already raised in previous documents and which the ETUC fully supports. Employers and their representative organisations 159 play an important role in changing the attitude towards older workers in the labour market. It is also important to take into account work preferences of working men and women over 50 years old. Evidence exists already. It is time to start social dialogue at all level to move our societies in such a direction that enables longer working lives in good health. Minimum Income The existence of adequate minimum income schemes proved to be an important stabiliser throughout the crisis. The ongoing discussion, the research carried out so far, the OMC on this topic are important factors to further develop such systems or to introduce them in countries where they do not exist. The ETUC is in favour of a European approach to set common principles and create a social standard for minimum income schemes. 160 7. Country Profiles Notes: 1. Definitions of variables are provided in the ―Definitions and data sources‖ section at the end of the report. 2. Concerning the (quasi-)jobless household (VLWI) indicator, its percentage is not calculated as a part of the whole population (as it is the case for AROP and SMD), but as a part of the population in the age group 0-59 (see the definition provided on the following site: http://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=10421&langId=en). This makes it difficult to compare the VLWI indicator in percent with the AROP and SMD, as in the Venn Diagram comparing these 3 indicators. 161 BELGIUM NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 380,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 162 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 BE % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 14.7 14.6 14.6 15.3 15.3 15.1 -0.2 0.4 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 1554 1549 1566 1657 1667 1652 -0.9 6.3 84877 83462 % of total pln 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 0.1 2.3 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 967 1021 1053 1152 1170 1190 1.7 23.1 39644 40189 % of total pln 5.6 5.2 5.9 5.7 6.3 5.1 -1.2 -0.5 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 595 555 628 615 687 561 -18.3 -5.7 49673 48245 % of total pln 3.0 3.5 3.3 4.5 3.9 4.4 0.5 1.4 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 320 372 352 483 423 487 15.1 52.2 13552 13504 % of total pln 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.1 -0.2 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 137 116 128 141 104 118 13.5 -13.9 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.1 -0.5 0.1 1.8 1.8 211 219 232 242 283 235 -17.0 11.4 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 44 55 68 45 75 42 -44.0 -4.5 3391 3685 AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 163 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT BE Real GDP growth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 1.0 1.8 7.0 3.3 26.7 2009 -2.8 -0.2 7.9 3.5 29.1 2010 2.3 0.7 8.3 4.1 28.6 2011 1.8 1.4 7.2 3.5 29.0 2012 -0.1 0.2 7.6 3.4 29.4 2013 0.2 -0.2 8.4 3.9 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE BE Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 26.7 7.6 1.9 8.7 2.1 2.1 3.3 0.2 0.7 2009 29.1 8.3 2.1 9.5 2.2 2.2 3.8 0.2 0.8 2010 28.6 8.2 2.1 9.2 2.1 2.2 3.7 0.2 0.8 2011 29.0 8.3 2.2 9.5 2.1 2.2 3.7 0.2 0.7 2012 29.4 8.5 2.3 9.6 2.1 2.1 3.7 0.3 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 25.3 7.6 1.5 8.6 2.1 2.1 3.3 27.6 8.3 1.6 9.3 2.2 2.2 3.8 27.1 8.2 1.6 9.0 2.1 2.2 3.7 27.6 8.3 1.7 9.3 2.1 2.2 3.7 27.9 8.5 1.8 9.5 2.1 2.1 3.7 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 164 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 BE Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.8 0 -0.2 0.4 762 1819 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20.8 14.7 10046 20.2 14.6 10501 20.8 14.6 10399 21.0 15.3 10895 21.6 15.3 11103 20.8 15.1 11865 21096 5.6 22053 5.2 21838 5.9 22880 5.7 23316 6.3 24917 5.1 1601 -1.2 3821 -0.5 11.7 9.0 17.2 14.7 12.3 9.2 18.1 13.1 12.7 9.3 18.0 13.0 13.8 8.0 18.6 13.5 13.9 9.9 18.7 14.3 14.0 0.1 2.3 19.2 12.7 0.5 -1.6 45.6 4.1 12.5 45.3 3.9 8.7 45.3 3.9 8.9 45.0 3.9 10.6 44.8 4.0 11.0 42.6 3.8 9.6 2.2 2.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 165 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 2 -2 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 -2.18 -0.2 -1.4 -2.97 -0.3 -2.9 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -0.1 -2.4 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 BE Children (0-17) BE Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.0 -2.8 -1.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 21.3 17.2 7.3 20.5 16.6 6.5 23.2 18.3 7.7 23.3 18.7 8.2 22.8 17.3 8.3 21.9 17.2 5.5 8.9 17.5 11.0 21.3 12.0 20.8 14.0 21.5 13.0 19.2 12.2 21.3 -0.8 2.1 3.3 3.8 45.6 6.7 48.6 6.8 42.5 6.9 44.7 4.0 46.6 2.4 46.6 3.1 0.0 0.7 1.0 -3.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 23.0 16.5 9.5 20.1 15.5 7.6 20.7 14.4 7.1 20.4 14.1 5.9 23.4 16.4 8.7 23.8 16.1 7.3 11.1 6.0 6.0 13.3 10.9 10.2 4.6 7.1 14.5 10.2 10.3 4.5 7.3 14.3 8.1 10.7 6.6 6.0 14.8 9.6 12.1 3.5 6.2 15.0 11.0 14.4 2.7 7.3 16.0 9.8 166 Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.4 0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 2.3 -0.8 1.1 1.0 -1.2 3.3 -3.3 1.3 2.7 -1.1 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 BE % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) BE % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.5 0.7 -0.1 1.2 -0.8 0.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20.1 12.2 5.7 19.3 12.1 5.3 20.0 12.1 6.0 20.0 12.9 5.6 21.3 13.5 6.6 20.8 13.4 5.8 12.8 4.7 19.1 4.0 11.6 12.8 4.5 20.7 3.7 8.7 12.9 4.4 21.1 4.1 8.5 13.7 4.1 20.0 2.0 10.0 14.2 4.5 20.9 1.6 10.7 14.7 4.4 22.8 2.0 9.7 0.5 -0.1 1.9 0.4 -1.0 53.1 51.8 52.9 51.1 50.6 47.7 -2.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 22.9 21.2 3.2 0.74 0.45 1.0 23.1 21.6 3.1 0.74 0.45 0.8 21.0 19.4 2.8 0.75 0.46 1.1 21.6 20.2 2.6 0.74 0.44 0.7 21.2 19.4 2.8 0.74 0.46 0.5 19.5 18.4 2.0 0.76 0.47 0.7 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 1.9 -0.3 3.7 -2.0 -1.9 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 -5.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.7 -3.4 -1.0 -2.8 -0.8 -1.2 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.2 -0.3 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) Note: ratio indicators are not expressed in %; all changes are in percentage points' difference with the exception of the poverty threshold, S80/S20 167 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work 21.3 17.2 7.3 20.5 16.6 6.5 23.2 18.3 7.7 23.3 18.7 8.2 22.8 17.3 8.3 21.9 17.2 5.5 Change 20122013 -0.9 -0.1 -2.8 8.9 11.0 12.0 14.0 13.0 12.2 -0.8 9.1 9.7 11.6 9.5 14.7 6.2 5.2 5.4 4.4 5.4 5.0 -0.4 -1.2 11.0 10.6 78.6 79.2 76.1 80.1 75.7 74.0 -1.7 -4.6 67.5 64.9 11.1 8.8 10.3 8.5 8.6 9.2 0.6 -1.9 15.9 15.6 Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) 20.0 17.0 17.0 19.0 21.0 14.0 23.0 16.0 19.0 20.0 27.0 14.0 25.0 30.0 36.0 32.0 25.0 37.0 74.0 69.0 63.0 66.0 75.0 46.0 17.5 17.6 6.9 20.0 21.3 16.3 7.0 18.6 20.8 15.6 4.3 18.4 21.5 16.2 4.6 19.1 19.2 18.4 4.8 21.7 21.3 18.1 5.2 21.1 2.1 -0.3 0.4 -0.6 3.8 0.5 -1.7 1.1 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 28.4 27.6 45.6 48.6 42.5 44.7 46.6 46.6 -0.02 1.01 39.3 41.3 9.9 5.2 12.0 0.4 478 2.1 6.7 6.8 5.5 11.1 0.6 439 2.7 6.8 7.7 5.3 11.9 0.3 465 3.5 6.9 10.7 6.8 12.3 0.8 434 1.6 4.0 9.3 7.4 12.0 1.2 483 0.9 2.4 7.9 6.8 11.0 1.0 -1.4 -0.6 -1 -0.2 -2 1.6 -1 0.6 10.5 6.7 12.0 1.4 3.1 0.5 0.7 -0.7 -3.6 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 BE % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing Access to adequate resources Access to quality services Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Change 20082013 0.6 0 -1.8 3.3 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data). Note: Break in series for ―self reported unmet need for medical care‖ in 2011 168 2012 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Low income High income Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 74 75,9 1,9 85,2 82,1 -3,1 54,2 53,1 -1,1 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income 72,9 Low / high income Gross2010 51,3 52,7 (90/0/10)* (78/0/22)* 59,2 57,8 (91/0/9)* (80/0/20)* 34,3 33,34 (87/0/13)* (75/0/25)* 74,3 / 77,8 51,6 / 54,1 84,4 / 52,6 58,7 / 36,5 69,41 -3,5 50,1 74,7 / 48,3 42 years career: average income 76,7 Low / high income Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) 47,85 1,4 -1,4 -1,0 -2,3 52.1 / 31.13 77,82 1,1 54,2 86,1 / 56.81 10 years after retirement Gross2050 Difference 55,73 1,5 60,7 / 35.5 67,5 70,5 3,0 46,8 47,9 1,1 73,7 74,2 0,5 51,1 51,6 0,5 69 72,5 3,5 46,3 49,0 2,7 67,2 66,3 -0,9 40,8 40,7 -0,1 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 39,2 38,3 -0,9 44,7 37,0 -7,7 : : : 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS BE Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 63.3 64.2 10.4 10.4 76.9 82.6 17.3 20.9 0.5 73.9 2827.77 9.94 2009 63.9 63.7 10.6 10.3 77.3 82.8 17.5 21.1 0.6 73.5 2892.14 10.65 2010 64 62.6 10.4 9.7 77.6 83 17.6 21.3 0.4 73 3054.56 10.56 2011 63.4 63.6 9.8 10.3 78 83.3 18 21.6 1.5 73.5 3142.36 10.61 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA). Note: Break in series for ―self reported unmet need for medical care‖ in 2011 169 2012 64.3 65.4 10.7 11.1 77.8 83.1 17.7 21.3 1.7 74.3 3270.19 10.89 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS154 154 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) are given as a background. 170 Definition Unit Source link Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total monthly average -Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Source: eurostat http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/employment_unemployment_lfs/data/datab ase comment Unemployment benefit Definition Unit Source link comment number of full-time unemployed with an unemployment benefit number of recipients Administrative data National Employment Office; FPS Social Security on the basis of the NEO website http://www.rva.be/Frames/frameset.aspx?Path=D_stat/&Items=1&Language=FR This number is the sum of a number of different administrative categories of unemployed: after full-time employment, after studies, after voluntary part-time employment, different categories of early retirement and unemployed with social or familial difficulties Social assistance benefit Definition Unit Source link comment number of social assistance recipients ('leefloon'+'financiële steun/equivalent leefloon') number of recipients Federal Public Service for Social Integration age category 18-64 Disability benefit Definition Unit Source number of persons with a invalidity allowance (schemes for employees and self-employed) number of benefit recipients Up to 2007 National Institute for Sickness and Invalidity Insurance (OECD questionnaire). From 2008: figures published in ‘De sociale Zekerheid in een oogopslag:kerncijfers 2014' link comment 171 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS Note: (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012. Break in series for ―self reported unmet need for medical care‖ in 2011 172 BULGARIA NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people living in monetary poverty by 260,000 people Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 173 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 BG % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 21.4 21.8 20.7 22.2 21.2 21.0 -0.2 -0.4 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 1632 1657 1564 1672 1559 1528 -2.0 -6.4 84877 83462 % of total pln 8.1 6.9 8.0 11.0 12.5 13.0 0.5 4.9 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 470 399 453 623 676 695 2.8 47.9 39644 40189 % of total pln 41.2 41.9 45.7 43.6 44.1 43.0 -1.1 1.8 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 3151 3184 3459 3277 3242 3129 -3.5 -0.7 49673 48245 % of total pln 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 -0.2 0.3 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 23 29 21 36 58 45 -22.4 95.7 13552 13504 % of total pln 13.8 14.3 13.5 11.7 11.1 10.7 -0.4 -3.1 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 1055 1091 1024 882 813 780 -4.1 -26.1 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 4.5 3.7 4.3 5.8 5.8 6.3 0.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 343 285 325 435 426 455 6.8 32.7 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.7 -0.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 69 39 63 90 134 122 -9.0 76.8 3391 3685 AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) ; Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 174 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT BG Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 5.8 2.4 5.6 2.9 15.5 2009 -5.0 -1.7 6.8 3.0 17.2 2010 0.7 -3.9 10.2 4.7 18.1 2011 2.0 -2.2 11.3 6.3 17.7 2012 0.5 -2.5 12.3 6.8 17.4 2013 1.1 -0.4 13.0 7.4 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 10.5 10.8 4.6 5.1 29.5 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE BG Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 14.8 4.3 1.1 6.6 0.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 2009 16.1 3.8 1.3 7.5 0.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 2010 17.2 4.2 1.4 8.0 0.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 2011 16.5 4.3 1.3 7.4 0.8 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.2 2012 16.5 4.3 1.3 7.3 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 14.1 4.3 1.1 6.6 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 15.4 3.8 1.3 7.5 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.1 16.4 4.2 1.4 8.0 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 15.8 4.3 1.3 7.4 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.1 15.8 4.3 1.3 7.3 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.1 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 175 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 BG Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.3 3.2 -0.2 -0.4 116 774 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 44.8 21.4 2859 46.2 21.8 3436 49.2 20.7 3531 49.1 22.2 3499 49.3 21.2 3517 48.0 21.0 3633 6004 41.2 7215 41.9 7415 45.7 7347 43.6 7385 44.1 7629 43.0 244 -1.1 1625 1.8 8.1 8.0 16.4 29.6 14.8 11.0 16.9 29.4 17.7 12.5 12.9 31.4 18.6 13.0 0.5 4.9 27.0 21.4 6.9 10.7 27.4 16.1 30.9 18.5 -0.5 -0.1 21.0 6.5 13.3 17.4 5.9 7.0 23.6 5.9 5.9 19.0 6.5 8.7 18.2 6.1 14.5 21.4 6.6 14.3 3.2 0.5 -0.2 176 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 3.9 -2.9 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 0.32 0.1 1 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 BG Children (0-17) BG Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.8 7.3 0.2 2.9 -0.3 5.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 44.2 25.5 40.8 47.3 24.9 43.6 49.8 26.7 46.5 51.8 28.4 45.6 52.3 28.2 46.6 51.5 28.4 46.3 9.5 40.3 7.6 33.2 10.4 36.5 14.1 37.0 16.8 41.9 18.2 41.7 1.4 -0.2 8.7 1.4 18.0 65.5 17.3 63.1 21.7 63.2 19.3 63.1 21.5 61.2 25.5 62.8 4.0 1.6 7.5 -2.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 38.6 20.5 34.4 42.7 18.3 39.1 48.5 18.1 45.4 49.2 22.4 43.4 49.7 20.1 44.6 47.4 19.3 43.2 7.6 10.7 3.8 21.6 12.0 6.6 7.8 4.8 24.0 5.7 7.0 7.5 6.7 27.8 4.6 10.6 10.5 7.4 26.3 8.0 10.6 11.3 8.5 26.0 11.2 13.7 6.5 8.4 25.9 9.5 177 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -2.3 8.8 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 8.8 3.1 -4.8 -0.1 -0.1 -1.7 6.1 -4.2 4.6 4.3 -2.5 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 BG % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (18-59) Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) BG % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.3 4.8 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 3.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 39.5 17.0 36.2 40.6 16.4 37.1 45.0 16.0 42.2 45.2 18.2 40.3 45.6 17.4 40.8 44.3 17.1 39.9 7.7 7.6 29.6 49.7 12.2 6.7 7.5 29.9 49.0 5.7 7.3 7.7 29.6 49.5 4.8 10.2 8.2 31.6 49.7 7.5 11.2 7.4 34.9 46.8 12.0 11.6 7.2 34.4 46.4 11.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 3.9 -0.4 4.8 -3.3 -0.7 24.1 21.2 28.9 21.9 21.3 24.7 3.4 0.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 65.5 33.8 61.0 0.66 0.34 24.8 66.0 39.3 58.4 0.63 0.34 24.2 63.9 32.2 58.1 0.74 0.43 24.4 61.1 31.2 53.7 0.72 0.41 24.0 59.1 28.2 53.2 0.74 0.42 21.7 57.6 27.9 50.7 0.76 0.39 21.3 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.5 -7.9 -0.3 -5.9 -2.5 -10.3 0.02 0.10 -0.03 0.05 -0.4 -3.5 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) Note: ratio indicators are not expressed in %; all changes are in percentage points' difference with the exception of the poverty threshold, S80/S20 178 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 BG % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 44.2 25.5 40.8 47.3 24.9 43.6 49.8 26.7 46.5 51.8 28.4 45.6 52.3 28.2 46.6 51.5 28.4 46.3 Change 20122013 -0.8 0.2 -0.3 Change 20082013 7.3 2.9 5.5 9.5 7.6 10.4 14.1 16.8 18.2 1.4 8.7 15.8 21.8 22.9 13.9 9.7 10.2 10.4 11.1 9.8 9.7 -0.1 0 11.0 10.6 93.4 90.3 89.1 84.5 81.1 80.6 -0.5 -12.8 67.5 64.9 18.2 19.3 19.3 19.0 17.0 16.6 -0.4 -1.6 15.9 15.6 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 9.0 7.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 14.0 6.0 7.0 4.0 2.0 5.0 37.0 61.0 48.0 50.0 58.0 92.0 46.0 40.3 33.2 36.5 37.0 41.9 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 41.7 2.0 -0.2 1.4 3.5 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 28.4 27.6 18.0 17.3 21.7 19.3 21.5 25.5 4.01 7.45 39.3 41.3 14.0 13.7 14.8 9.6 668 35.0 65.5 6.5 14.8 14.7 5.1 729 27.8 63.1 5.8 15.6 13.9 5.8 708 23.8 63.2 8.7 15.0 11.8 5.0 601 23.5 63.1 16.2 15.4 12.5 3.7 536 23.2 61.2 13.9 15.2 12.5 -2.3 -0.2 0 -0.1 1.5 -2.3 10.5 6.7 12.0 25.2 62.8 2 1.6 -9.8 -2.7 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 179 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 62,3 67,5 5,2 Low income 62,9 68,0 5,1 High income 56,3 50,6 -5,7 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 48,8 52,4 (100/0/0)* (74/26/0)* 49,3 52,8 (100/0/0)* (74/26/0)* 44,1 39,3 (100/0/0)* (74/26/0)* 65,5 / 70,5 50,4 / 54,7 71,7 / 64,3 55,6 / 49,9 -3,6 -3,5 -4,8 53,1 65,1 12,0 42,7 50,5 7,8 56,9 / 53,1 65,6 / 48,8 8,7 / -4,3 48,5 / 39,1 50,9 / 37,9 2,3 / -1,2 70,3 75,7 5,4 55,1 58,7 3,6 71,1 / 62,7 76,3 / 57 4,8 / -5,7 55,7 / 49,1 59,2 / 44,2 3,5 / -4,9 52,8 59,3 6,5 40,9 46 5,1 42,7 60,5 17,8 33,8 46,9 13,1 50,3 63,5 13,2 40,5 49,3 8,8 43 51,1 8,1 33,7 39,7 6,0 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 46,1 38,6 -7,5 44,7 37,0 -7,7 49,8 50,8 1,0 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS BG Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 62.1 65.7 8.7 9.4 69.8 77 13.5 16.7 15.3 62.2 2009 62.1 65.9 8.5 9.3 70.1 77.4 13.8 17 10.3 65.2 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 180 2010 63 67.1 8.8 9.9 70.3 77.4 13.6 17 10.5 67.2 2011 62.1 65.9 8.6 9.7 70.7 77.8 14 17.3 9.8 67.1 2012 62.1 65.7 8.7 9.5 70.9 77.9 13.9 17.3 8.2 66.6 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS155 155 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 181 Unemployment definition unit source Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment benefit definition unit source comment definition unit source comment U benefits beneficiaries thousands of beneficiaries National Social Security Institute The number of the unemployed benefits beneficiaries increased due to the economic crisis and the higher unemployment rate. Social assistance benefit Monthly social assistance benefit recipients thousands of recipients Social assistance Agency There are not big differences in the number of the monthly social assistance benefit recipients. Disability benefit definition unit source comment Monthly disability benefit recipients thousands of recipients Social Assistance Agency There is a little increase in the number of the monthly disability benefit recipients 182 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 183 CZECH REPUBLIC NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Maintaining the number of persons at risk of poverty or social exclusion at the level of 2008 (15.3% of total population) with efforts to reduce it by 30,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 184 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 CZ % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 9.0 8.6 9.0 9.8 9.6 8.6 -1.0 -0.4 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 925 885 936 1022 990 886 -10.5 -4.2 84877 83462 % of total pln 7.2 6.0 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 0.1 -0.3 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 581 482 520 531 536 541 0.9 -6.9 39644 40189 % of total pln 6.8 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.6 6.6 0.0 -0.2 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 696 635 644 641 683 679 -0.6 -2.4 49673 48245 % of total pln 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 -0.1 -0.3 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 183 162 156 177 164 150 -8.5 -18.0 13552 13504 % of total pln 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.3 -0.3 -0.1 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 140 144 138 115 163 136 -16.6 -2.9 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 1.8 1.8 139 113 143 132 129 140 8.5 0.7 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 35 21 24 39 45 31 -31.1 -11.4 3391 3685 AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 185 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT CZ Real GDP growth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 2.7 2.3 4.4 2.2 17.5 2009 -4.8 -1.8 6.7 2.0 19.7 2010 2.3 -1.0 7.3 3.0 19.5 2011 2.0 0.0 6.7 2.7 19.8 2012 -0.8 0.4 7.0 3.0 20.2 2013 -0.7 0.9 7.0 3.0 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE CZ Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 17.5 5.8 1.4 7.3 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.2 2009 19.7 6.4 1.5 8.3 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.2 2010 19.5 6.3 1.5 8.5 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.2 2011 19.8 6.3 1.5 8.9 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.3 2012 20.2 6.4 1.4 9.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 17.1 5.8 1.4 7.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.1 19.3 6.4 1.5 8.3 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.0 0.2 19.2 6.3 1.5 8.5 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.0 0.1 19.4 6.3 1.5 8.9 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.2 19.7 6.4 1.4 9.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 186 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 CZ Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.8 -0.7 -1 -0.4 201 554 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.3 9.0 5835 14.0 8.6 5666 14.4 9.0 5796 15.3 9.8 5993 15.4 9.6 6188 14.6 8.6 6389 12254 6.8 11898 6.1 12171 6.2 12586 6.1 12994 6.6 13418 6.6 424 0 1164 -0.2 7.2 3.9 18.5 9.0 6.0 3.7 18.8 8.1 6.4 5.5 21.1 7.8 6.6 4.2 17.2 8.6 6.8 4.3 19.1 8.7 6.9 4.1 16.6 8.5 0.1 -0.3 -2.5 -0.2 55.0 3.4 12.8 52.0 3.5 8.9 50.3 3.5 9.7 45.6 3.5 9.5 45.5 3.5 10.0 48.2 3.4 11.7 2.4 2.0 0.1 -1.4 -1.5 -2.3 187 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 -1.9 -0.5 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 2.74 -0.1 1.7 -6.81 0 -1.1 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -0.8 -4.8 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 CZ Children (0-17) CZ Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate (18 - 24) Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -2.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.2 -1.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 18.6 13.2 8.3 17.2 13.3 7.4 18.9 14.3 8.6 20.0 15.2 8.0 18.8 13.9 8.5 16.4 11.3 7.3 7.6 21.4 6.2 22.2 7.0 25.5 6.9 17.7 6.7 20.5 6.2 19.8 -0.5 -0.7 -1.4 -1.6 55.6 43.0 47.4 39.3 45.0 34.4 43.7 32.6 46.5 32.4 49.6 31.5 3.0 -0.9 -6.0 -11.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17.4 11.6 8.0 16.6 11.0 7.9 16.1 11.2 7.4 18.3 12.7 6.1 18.9 13.4 7.3 18.5 11.4 9.0 4.9 4.4 3.1 8.9 9.2 3.6 3.4 5.3 11.2 7.6 4.8 2.6 5.7 11.4 9.1 4.7 2.4 5.4 10.7 9.3 5.2 5.2 6.1 11.3 10.1 6.9 3.1 6.0 11.8 10.8 188 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.4 1.1 -2.0 -0.2 1.7 1.0 1.7 -2.1 -0.1 0.5 0.7 2.0 -1.3 2.9 2.9 1.6 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 CZ % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) CZ % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.3 0.2 -0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.0 8.3 6.5 13.7 7.6 5.9 14.1 8.1 6.0 15.1 9.1 5.8 15.5 9.3 6.3 15.2 8.6 6.7 7.1 3.6 19.8 29.5 11.5 5.9 3.2 21.5 26.6 8.0 6.2 3.7 22.2 22.2 8.8 6.5 4.1 19.4 20.9 8.8 6.9 4.6 21.5 21.3 9.1 7.1 4.1 17.3 21.5 11.0 0.2 -0.5 -4.2 0.2 1.9 55.4 54.5 52.6 47.7 47.2 49.7 2.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12.5 7.4 6.4 0.79 0.51 14.6 11.7 7.2 5.7 0.78 0.51 11.6 10.1 6.8 4.3 0.82 0.54 9.4 10.7 6.6 5.4 0.82 0.53 8.2 10.8 6.0 6.0 0.84 0.55 7.4 10.4 5.8 5.3 0.85 0.56 7.7 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 0.0 0.5 -2.5 -8.0 -0.5 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 -5.7 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.4 -2.1 -0.2 -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.3 -6.9 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) Note: ratio indicators are not expressed in %; all changes are in percentage points' difference with the exception of the poverty threshold, S80/S20 189 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 CZ % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 18.6 13.2 8.3 17.2 13.3 7.4 18.9 14.3 8.6 20.0 15.2 8.0 18.8 13.9 8.5 16.4 11.3 7.3 Change 20122013 -2.4 -2.6 -1.2 7.6 6.2 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.2 -0.5 6.1 6.2 10.3 4.7 7.3 6.1 5.0 4.6 5.1 5.7 5.9 4.7 -1.2 -0.3 11.0 10.6 74.6 85.5 82.8 79.3 74.0 71.5 -2.5 -3.1 67.5 64.9 8.1 8.6 9.2 10.5 9.6 7.3 -2.3 -0.8 15.9 15.6 1.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 14.0 14.0 33.0 28.0 32.0 29.0 27.0 37.0 36.0 36.0 39.0 45.0 48.0 46.0 21.4 18.4 22.2 16.5 17.7 16.1 20.5 17.4 23.1 21.6 25.5 20.1 1.3 26.2 20.9 55.6 47.4 45.0 14.5 2.6 5.6 0.3 338 9.8 43.0 8.7 3.5 5.4 0.0 341 10.3 39.3 9.9 3.7 4.9 0.4 313 7.1 34.4 -1.4 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 -0.7 2.4 -1.6 1.4 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 23.7 19.8 19.8 3.2 25.2 1.5 2.1 28.4 27.6 43.7 46.5 49.6 3.01 -6.01 39.3 41.3 8.8 3.6 4.9 9.0 3.8 5.5 11.5 3.1 5.4 2.5 -0.7 -0.1 -3 0.5 -0.2 10.5 6.7 12.0 298 8.4 32.6 285 6.7 32.4 6.4 31.5 -0.3 -0.9 -3.4 -11.5 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 190 Change 20082013 -2.2 -1.9 -1 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 70,6 43,1 -27,5 Low income 87,2 54,9 -32,3 High income 42,5 26,6 -15,9 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 60,3 74,9 / 35,4 42 years career: average income Low / high income 80,2 94,3 / 46,3 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Difference Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 55,1 33,4 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 72,1 45 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 31,5 19,5 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 43,1 / 43,1 33,4 / 33,4 43,1 / 43,1 33,4 / 33,4 34,2 -26,1 47 26,5 44 / 20,8 (-30,8/-14,6) 61,9 / 26,1 53,9 -26,3 -27,1 -12,0 -20,5 36,1 / 15,2 (-25,8/-10,9) 63,1 41,8 68 / 33,6 (-26,3/-12,8) 77,2 / 34,7 -21,6 -21,3 55,7 / 24,6 (-21,5/-10,1) 61,1 37,9 -23,2 47,3 29,4 -17,9 51,5 59,5 8,0 33,8 46,1 12,3 57,6 58,8 1,2 43,8 45,6 1,8 50,1 28,9 -21,2 39,1 22,4 -16,7 2010 2050 26,2 25,2 -1,0 44,7 37,0 -7,7 28,5 25,4 -3,2 48,0 39,1 -8,9 Difference EU27 2010 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS CZ Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 61.2 63.4 7.5 8.2 74.1 80.5 15.3 18.8 0.7 61.4 1421.26 6.82 2009 61.1 62.7 8.1 8.5 74.2 80.5 15.2 18.8 0.6 61.3 1579.14 7.85 2010 62.2 64.5 8.5 8.8 74.5 80.9 15.5 19 1 62.2 1535.16 7.43 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 191 2011 62.2 63.6 8.4 8.7 74.8 81.1 15.6 19.2 1.1 59.5 1571.65 7.5 2012 62.3 64.1 8.3 8.9 75.1 81.2 15.7 19.2 1 60.4 1619.16 7.55 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS156 600 500 Thousands of people 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 CZ Number of unemployed (ILO) CZ disability benefit pensioners 1 2009 2010 2012 CZ Unemployment Benefit recipients CZ disability benefit pensioners 2 CZ definition unit source comment 2011 2013 2014 CZ Social Assistance Beneficiaries CZ Number of early retirees Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted eurostat Eurostat Unemployment benefit definition unit source comment Unemployment Benefits recipients thousands of recipients www.mpsv.cz Unemployment benefits - due to worse economic situation, there was a significant growth of number of unemployment benefits recipients at the end of 2008 (e.g. from the reason of mass laying-off) and during the 1st quarter of 2009. The declines in summer months of the following years were induced mainly by the impact of traditional element – seasonal works. On the other hand, increased numbers at the turn of years have been connected rather with layoffs at the end of the year. Since June 2011, the numbers of beneficiaries have been nearly similar to those ones in before-crisis years. Annual decrese in 2012 was partly caused by relevant legislative changes. On the other hand, annual increase of recipients in 2013 has related with higher number of newly registered job seekers. 156 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) are given as a background. 192 Social assistance benefit definition unit source comment Social assistance beneficiaries thousands of beneficiaries MoLSA After the introduction of the new System of Assistance in Material Need (starting 2007), there was a slight decrease of the number of beneficiaries of assistance in material need benefits (or more precisely of allowance for living) since the 2nd quarter of 2007 mainly due to favourable economic development. The impact of global economic crisis became evident in this statistics since the end of 2008, more intensively during 2009 and in the 1st half of 2010. After stagnation in the 2nd half of 2010, there has been another significant increase since February 2011. It may be explained by legislative changes in the system of State Social Support (the reduction of entitlement to social allowance affected the System of Assistance in Material Need in the form of growth of its number of beneficiaries). With regard to full cancelation of social allowance in State Social Support since 2012 and increase of amounts of the subsistence minimum and the existence minimum, number of beneficiaries has increased significantly (except specific situation in January 2012 when new IS was introduced). Following increse has been affected mainly by income situation of households and by higher number of job-seekers without entitlement to unemployment benefit. Methodological note: number of beneficiaries represent number of household supported by Allowance for Living. On behalf of the whole household (all its members) there can be only one beneficiary of this benefit. The curve for „social assistance beneficiaries“ is in the graph provided only for the period of time 2007-2013 and reflects the development of the number of allowance for living recipients (see the Act No. 111/2006 Coll., on Assistance in material need, as amended, that has been in effect since 01/01/2007); till the end of 2006 the system of social assistance benefits was regulated in absolutely different way. Because of this fact, there is no reasonable comparability. Disability benefit definition unit source comment Number of pensioners (disability benefits 1st, 2nd and 3rd degree) thousands of persons MoLSA From the beginning of 2010 the new types of disability were implemented to the social system. Currently three levels of disability are differentiated (the 1st, 2nd , 3rd ) instead of the former two levels (full disability, partial disability). The 3rd level is equal to the full disability while the partial disability was split in the current 1st and 2nd level. From January 2010 all receivers of disability pension older than 65 years of age are no more implicated in the number of disability pensioners. They are implicated in the number of old age pensioners. This change is displayed in the drop of number of disability pensioners in January 2010. According to these changes, new data (starting January 2010) are being presented separately. 193 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 194 DENMARK NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of persons living in households with low work intensity by 22,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 195 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 DK AROP VLWI SMD % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change 20122013 Change 20082013 2012 2013 % of total pln 11.8 13.1 13.3 13.0 13.1 12.3 -0.8 0.5 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 643 716 728 715 731 690 -5.6 7.3 84877 83462 % of total pln 8.5 8.8 10.6 11.7 11.3 12.9 1.6 4.4 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 347 360 433 480 464 522 12.5 50.4 39644 40189 % of total pln 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.8 1.0 1.8 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 107 124 145 146 157 215 36.9 100.9 49673 48245 % of total pln 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.1 2.6 2.8 0.2 0.5 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 125 129 148 172 147 155 5.4 24.0 13552 13504 % of total pln 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.3 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 21 29 22 34 39 39 0.0 85.7 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.8 19 29 44 27 43 59 37.2 210.5 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 26 22 41 42 23 56 143.5 115.4 3391 3685 AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 196 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT DK Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 -0.8 1.7 3.4 0.5 29.2 2009 -5.7 -3.4 6.0 0.6 33.1 2010 1.4 -2.5 7.5 1.5 32.8 2011 1.1 -0.2 7.6 1.8 32.8 2012 -0.4 -0.3 7.5 2.1 33.1 2013 0.4 0.2 7.0 1.8 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE DK Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 29.2 6.5 3.7 12.7 0.0 4.0 0.9 0.6 0.8 2009 33.1 7.3 4.1 14.0 0.0 4.5 1.6 0.7 0.9 2010 32.8 7.0 4.2 13.8 0.0 4.3 1.8 0.7 1.0 2011 32.8 6.9 4.1 14.2 0.0 4.1 1.8 0.7 1.1 2012 33.1 6.9 4.1 14.4 0.0 4.0 1.8 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 1.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.5 1.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.5 1.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.6 1.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 27.8 6.5 3.6 12.6 0.0 3.9 0.9 0.0 0.4 31.5 7.3 4.0 13.9 0.0 4.4 1.6 0.0 0.4 31.2 7.0 4.0 13.8 0.0 4.2 1.8 0.0 0.4 31.1 6.9 3.9 14.2 0.0 3.9 1.8 31.3 6.9 4.0 14.4 0.0 3.9 1.8 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 197 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 DK Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.1 2.6 -0.8 0.5 298 920 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 16.3 11.8 10561 17.6 13.1 10751 18.3 13.3 10770 18.9 13.0 11277 19.0 13.1 11183 18.9 12.3 11481 22177 2.0 22577 2.3 22616 2.7 23683 2.6 23484 2.8 24111 3.8 627 1 8.5 4.9 18.0 11.8 8.8 2.7 18.4 13.1 10.6 6.3 21.6 12.6 11.7 6.4 21.4 12.2 11.3 5.7 22.8 13.0 12.9 5.1 23.7 12.8 57.6 3.6 17.1 58.0 4.6 24.2 54.3 4.4 21.9 54.2 4.4 20.0 53.7 4.5 18.2 -0.4 1.3 3.4 0.5 -0.9 198 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 1934 1.8 9.9 9.6 1.6 -0.6 0.9 -0.2 4.4 0.2 5.7 1 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 10.7 56.2 4.3 18.9 2.52 -0.2 0.7 -1.32 0.7 1.8 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.8 -0.9 -1.4 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 DK Children (0-17) DK Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.2 2.8 -1.7 -0.6 0.3 1.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12.7 9.1 2.5 14.0 10.6 2.1 15.1 10.9 3.1 16.0 10.2 3.3 15.3 10.2 3.6 15.5 8.5 3.9 4.3 19.3 5.5 22.0 7.4 19.6 8.9 20.2 5.8 25.3 8.6 16.2 2.8 -9.1 4.3 -3.1 58.8 10.8 56.4 10.7 54.6 9.9 60.3 10.8 58.4 9.9 65.7 11.2 7.4 1.3 6.9 0.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 36.0 34.0 3.4 37.6 34.4 5.6 42.3 39.1 4.1 45.6 42.4 5.1 44.7 39.4 6.0 46.5 40.5 6.1 9.0 17.0 5.8 5.7 29.9 8.6 19.5 8.4 7.0 34.5 11.9 24.5 9.4 8.3 36.1 14.2 27.1 9.6 8.4 41.7 11.5 25.8 9.1 8.8 40.2 15.7 15.9 8.1 8.1 43.6 199 Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.8 10.5 1.1 6.5 0.1 2.7 4.2 -9.9 -1.0 -0.7 3.4 6.7 -1.1 2.3 2.4 13.7 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 DK % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) DK % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.8 5.2 0.2 2.8 1.5 2.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17.1 11.3 2.0 18.1 12.2 2.7 19.5 12.9 2.9 20.5 13.1 2.9 21.5 13.9 3.2 22.3 14.1 4.7 10.2 5.0 25.1 7.7 17.7 10.1 5.9 29.2 8.4 23.1 11.9 6.3 29.3 8.1 21.6 12.8 6.3 31.7 8.5 19.7 13.6 5.7 29.8 8.4 18.6 14.6 4.3 28.4 11.3 19.7 1.0 -1.4 -1.4 2.9 1.1 59.4 58.9 56.1 56.5 55.5 56.1 0.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 18.6 18.1 0.9 0.70 0.41 0.5 20.6 20.1 0.9 0.71 0.42 1.1 18.4 17.7 0.9 0.71 0.44 0.6 16.6 16.0 1.1 0.72 0.42 0.7 14.6 14.1 0.6 0.75 0.42 0.6 11.4 10.6 1.0 0.76 0.44 0.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 200 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 4.4 -0.7 3.3 3.6 2.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 -3.3 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -3.2 -7.2 -3.5 -7.5 0.4 0.1 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.03 0.2 0.3 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 DK % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12.7 9.1 2.5 14.0 10.6 2.1 15.1 10.9 3.1 16.0 10.2 3.3 15.3 10.2 3.6 15.5 8.5 3.9 Change 20122013 0.2 -1.7 0.3 4.3 5.5 7.4 8.9 5.8 8.6 2.8 3.5 0.8 10.1 5.0 6.9 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.9 5.0 4.4 38.2 50.3 54.9 41.5 7.6 7.9 6.8 8.0 65.0 10.0 63.0 13.0 Change 20082013 2.8 -0.6 1.4 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 4.3 9.1 9.3 -2.5 0.9 12.8 3.3 -1.1 -1.4 11.0 10.6 32.1 30.2 -1.9 -8 67.5 64.9 7.1 7.5 6.0 -1.5 -1.6 15.9 15.6 10.0 68.0 5.0 69.0 8.0 59.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 15.0 11.0 9.0 37.0 83.0 72.0 75.0 87.0 85.0 46.0 19.3 3.9 22.0 3.0 19.6 3.1 -9.1 -0.2 -3.1 -1.2 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 4.1 4.2 25.3 2.9 0.1 4.2 16.2 2.7 5.3 20.2 2.9 0.5 3.9 3.9 -0.3 -1.4 28.4 27.6 58.8 56.4 54.6 60.3 58.4 65.7 7.36 6.91 39.3 41.3 12.6 2.5 12.5 0.7 262 1.6 10.8 22.0 3.6 11.3 1.3 193 1.6 10.7 18.3 3.7 11.0 1.8 216 1.9 9.9 13.1 3.8 9.6 1.3 208 5.1 10.8 11.4 3.8 9.1 1.0 197 2.8 9.9 12.0 3.2 8.0 0.6 -0.6 -1.1 -0.6 0.7 -4.5 10.5 6.7 12.0 3.2 11.2 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.4 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 201 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 69,4 67,3 -2,1 Low income 97,3 89,9 -7,4 High income 44,5 43,7 -0,8 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 68,8 97,2 / 43,6 42 years career: average income Low / high income 73,2 65,9 Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) 48,8 56,2 (72/14/14)* (45/8/47)* 70,9 75,1 (76/15/9)* (56/9/35)* 26,5 32,4 (64/13/23)* (34/7/60)* 64,1 / 71,2 53,3 / 59,9 75,4 / 62,8 61,5 / 52,1 63,3 -5,5 53,1 89,4 / 38,8 (-7,8 / -4,8) 78,3 / 27,7 73,4 102,9 / 46,8 97,3 / 48,4 10 years after retirement Difference Gross 2010 Gross 2050 Difference 7,4 4,2 5,9 52,6 -0,5 74,5 / 28,4 (-3,8 / 0,7) 0,2 53 61,9 8,9 (-5,6 / 1,6) 77,2 / 28,6 82,2 / 36,1 5,0 / 7,5 0,5 46,5 54,7 8,2 66,4 68,4 57,3 68,3 57,1 61,9 51,3 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 EU27 2050 Difference 35,8 30,5 -0,9 44,7 37,0 -7,7 : : : 48,0 39,1 -8,9 Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS DK Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 62.1 61 12 12.4 76.5 81 16.6 19.5 0.6 74.1 3044.06 10.18 2009 61.8 60.4 11.3 12.1 76.9 81.1 16.8 19.5 1.5 72.3 3175.99 11.47 2010 62.3 61.4 11.8 12.8 77.2 81.4 17 19.7 1.1 71 3257.16 11.08 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 202 2011 63.6 59.4 12.4 13 77.8 81.9 17.3 20.1 0.9 70.8 2012 60.6 61.4 10.6 12.9 78.1 82.1 17.5 20.2 1.2 70.8 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS157 Note: numbers of benefit recipients are not seasonally adjusted. 157 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) is given as a background. 203 DK definition unit source Number of unemployed Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment recipients definition unit source comment U benefits recipients, full time recipients. full time persons recipients (both passive and active recipients) http://www.jobindsats.dk/sw167.asp The monthly recipients of 2012 are also listed. If the recipients are only to be based on a whole year basis, these can be ignored and only 2011 data be used. Social assistance benefit definition unit source comment numbers of recipients of cash benefits both passive and active recipients http://www.jobindsats.dk/sw9990.asp Both recipients and full time recipients are listed as the numbers can then be compared (with unemployment benefits) as these are measured in full time recipients. The update includes a change in the numbers back in time due to the abolishment of the lowest cash benefits by January 1st 2012. As it is a headcount, all recipients of the lowest cash benefits are now listed as recipients of the same cash benefit back in time as it would otherwise mean a change in the level of recipients as from 1/1 2012 when all recipients became recipients of the same level of benefit. Disability benefit definition unit comment Number of pensioners (disability benefits full+partial ) thousands of pensioners Figures do not include people who reached statutory retirement age due to comparability reasons; the data until January 2011 represent an estimation, because the calculation of the accurate share of disability pensioners only existed for one month (December). 204 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 205 GERMANY NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of long-term unemployed by 320,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (LFS) 206 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 DE % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change 20122013 Change 20082013 0.9 16.9 16.7 2012 2013 % of total pln 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.1 0.0 1000 persons 12389 12590 12648 12814 13030 12845 -1.4 3.7 84877 83462 % of total pln 11.7 10.9 11.2 11.2 9.9 9.9 0.0 -1.8 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 7044 6538 6695 6637 5866 5744 -2.1 -18.5 39644 40189 % of total pln 5.5 5.4 4.5 5.3 4.9 5.4 0.5 -0.1 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 4442 4360 3672 4323 3937 4281 8.7 -3.6 49673 48245 % of total pln 3.8 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.1 -0.3 -0.7 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 3113 2944 3183 3026 2762 2457 -11.0 -21.1 13552 13504 % of total pln 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.8 0.2 0.4 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 1142 1024 917 1349 1292 1432 10.8 25.4 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 -0.1 -0.2 1.8 1.8 1408 1450 1333 1542 1279 1204 -5.9 -14.5 9240 9250 AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI % of total pln 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 460 402 286 242 312 362 16.0 -21.3 3391 3685 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC), Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 207 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT DE Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 1.1 1.2 7.4 4.0 26.9 2009 -5.1 0.1 7.6 3.5 30.2 2010 4.0 0.5 7.0 3.4 29.4 2011 3.3 1.4 5.8 2.8 28.3 2012 0.7 1.1 5.4 2.5 28.3 2013 0.4 0.6 5.2 2.4 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE DE Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 26.9 8.3 2.2 9.4 2.1 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 2009 30.2 9.7 2.3 10.0 2.2 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 2010 29.4 9.5 2.3 9.7 2.1 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 2011 28.3 9.4 2.2 9.4 2.0 3.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 2012 28.3 9.6 2.3 9.4 2.0 3.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 3.3 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 3.6 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 3.5 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 3.4 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 3.4 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 23.7 8.1 1.6 9.3 2.1 1.8 0.7 26.6 9.6 1.7 10.0 2.2 2.1 1.1 25.9 9.4 1.6 9.7 2.1 2.1 0.9 24.9 9.3 1.6 9.3 2.0 2.0 0.7 24.9 9.4 1.6 9.3 2.0 2.0 0.6 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 208 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 DE Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.7 0.2 0 0.9 97 818 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20.1 15.2 10804 20.0 15.5 10770 19.7 15.6 10544 19.9 15.8 11037 19.6 16.1 11525 20.3 16.1 11622 22689 5.5 22617 5.4 22143 4.5 23177 5.3 24201 4.9 24407 5.4 206 0.5 1718 -0.1 11.7 7.2 22.2 15.2 10.9 8.1 21.5 16.0 11.2 9.1 20.7 15.8 11.2 10.4 21.4 15.9 9.9 10.4 21.1 16.0 9.9 0 -1.8 20.4 16.8 -0.7 0.8 -1.8 1.6 37.2 4.8 35.7 4.5 35.5 4.5 14.5 37.1 4.5 16.1 33.7 4.3 16.6 34.0 4.6 16.4 0.28 0.3 -0.2 0.7 -0.5 0.6 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.0 209 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 10.7 -3.17 -0.2 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -0.1 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 DE Children (0-17) DE Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 0.8 -1.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20.1 15.2 6.9 20.4 15.0 7.1 21.7 17.5 5.2 19.9 15.6 5.4 18.4 15.2 4.8 19.4 14.7 5.6 9.1 19.3 9.0 19.8 8.9 17.8 8.6 17.2 6.8 17.4 6.9 16.4 0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -2.9 50.3 9.6 50.8 9.5 46.7 10.2 52.7 9.6 50.7 9.6 51.7 9.8 1.0 0.2 1.3 0.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25.1 20.2 7.0 25.5 21.1 6.9 23.8 18.9 5.3 24.2 19.0 6.2 25.3 20.7 5.6 25.5 18.5 6.1 8.7 10.5 5.5 11.8 6.5 11.6 5.8 12.1 9.2 10.6 5.1 11.4 14.3 9.7 9.6 4.5 10.2 15.2 8.6 10.3 4.1 9.8 17.7 8.7 11.5 4.0 8.8 16.0 210 Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.2 0.4 -2.2 -1.7 0.5 -0.9 0.1 1.2 -0.1 -1.0 -1.7 0.0 1.0 -1.5 -3.0 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 DE % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) DE % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.5 0.5 -0.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 21.5 15.4 6.1 21.1 15.8 5.8 20.8 15.6 5.2 21.3 16.4 6.0 21.2 16.6 5.5 22.0 16.9 6.0 12.4 7.1 25.0 7.9 11.4 6.8 23.8 8.1 11.9 7.1 22.7 8.0 13.6 12.0 7.7 24.5 7.5 15.7 10.8 7.7 23.1 7.3 16.3 10.8 8.6 22.1 7.5 15.8 0.0 0.9 -1.0 0.2 -0.5 38.2 36.3 37.4 37.2 34.1 33.7 -0.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.5 14.9 2.1 0.87 0.44 1.8 16.0 15.0 2.5 0.88 0.47 1.5 14.8 14.1 2.1 0.89 0.49 1.6 15.3 14.2 3.2 0.90 0.51 1.8 15.8 15.0 2.8 0.88 0.47 2.0 16.0 14.9 3.2 0.89 0.47 1.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 211 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 -1.6 1.5 -2.9 -0.4 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 -4.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.03 -0.2 0.0 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 DE % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20.1 15.2 6.9 20.4 15.0 7.1 21.7 17.5 5.2 19.9 15.6 5.4 18.4 15.2 4.8 19.4 14.7 5.6 Change 20122013 1 -0.5 0.8 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.6 6.8 6.9 0.1 4.6 5.4 8.0 9.7 7.7 8.3 7.5 8.8 8.1 7.7 8.1 0.4 -0.2 11.0 10.6 70.4 67.5 76.1 68.8 71.7 58.3 -13.4 -12.1 67.5 64.9 9.6 9.7 11.7 10.5 10.8 11.3 0.5 1.7 15.9 15.6 10.0 9.0 7.0 12.0 7.0 13.0 9.0 15.0 9.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 54.0 48.0 46.0 46.0 40.0 37.0 36.0 40.0 46.0 44.0 51.0 46.0 19.3 22.3 2.8 26.6 19.8 23.6 17.8 23.6 17.2 22.8 17.4 16.4 -1 -2.9 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 27.6 27.5 26.9 26.3 27.2 0.9 0.6 28.4 27.6 50.3 50.8 46.7 52.7 50.7 51.7 1 1.32 39.3 41.3 3.8 11.8 1.8 2414 3.3 9.6 3.9 11.1 1.3 2334 3.1 9.5 11.7 3.7 11.9 0.9 2322 3.6 10.2 12.5 3.3 11.7 0.6 2408 3.5 9.6 13.2 3.0 10.6 0.6 2202 3.4 9.6 11.5 2.6 9.9 -1.7 -0.4 -0.7 -1.2 -1.9 10.5 6.7 12.0 2.6 9.8 -0.8 0.2 -0.7 0.2 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 212 Change 20082013 -0.7 -0.5 -1.3 -2.2 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 59,1 63,7 4,6 Low income 53,9 59,7 5,8 High income 51,1 49,5 -1,6 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Difference Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 41,9 45,7 (100/0/0)* (73/0/27)* 41,9 45,7 (100/0/0)* (73/0/27)* 31,4 34,3 (100/0/0)* (73/0/27)* 61,2 / 66,5 43,8 / 47,9 67,7 / 60,6 48,8 / 43,3 3,8 3,8 2,9 52,1 57,2 5,1 37 40,1 3,1 47,5 / 45,8 56,9 / 45 9,4 / -0,8 37 / 28 43,2 / 30,2 6,2 / 2,2 69,5 70,6 1,1 49,3 51,7 2,4 63,4 / 60,1 67,7 / 54,7 4,3 / -5,4 49,3 / 37,6 51,7 / 38,9 2,4 / 1,3 59,1 61,2 2,1 41,9 43,7 1,8 62,1 72,5 10,4 44,0 53,7 9,7 57 68 11,0 40,5 49,5 9,0 44,3 47,7 3,4 31,4 33,5 2,1 2010 2050 47,0 38,1 -8,9 44,7 37,0 -7,7 40,5 34,5 -6,0 48,0 39,1 -8,9 Difference EU27 2010 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS DE Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 56.3 57.7 6.3 6.7 77.6 82.7 17.5 20.7 2.2 64.4 3133.00 10.7 2009 57.1 58.1 6.5 6.7 77.8 82.8 17.6 20.8 2.1 65.1 3200.99 11.75 2010 57.9 58.7 6.9 7.1 78 83 17.8 20.9 1.8 65.2 3442.9 11.56 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 213 2011 57.9 58.7 6.7 7.3 78.4 83.2 18.2 21.2 1.7 64.8 3553.9 11.25 2012 57.4 57.9 6.7 6.9 78.6 83.3 18.2 21.2 1.6 65.3 3651.51 11.27 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS158 158 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) is given as a background. 214 Unemployment definition unit source Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment benefit recipients definition unit source link Benefit recipients (UB I + UB II) thousands of recipients Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency) http://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/Navigation/Statistik/Statistik-nachThemen/Arbeitslose-und-gemeldetes-Stellenangebot/Arbeitslose/ArbeitsloseNav.html?year_month=aktuell comment Social assistance benefit/means-tested minimum income recipients definition unit source link Social Assistance recipients thousands of recipients Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency) http://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/Navigation/Statistik/Statistik-nachThemen/Lohnersatzleistungen-SGBIII/Kurzarbeitergeld/KurzarbeitergeldNav.html?year_month=aktuell comment Disability benefit recipients definition unit source link comment new disability pension recipients thousand of recipients (annual figures) Source: Deutsche Rentenversicherung Bund (German statutory pension insurance scheme) 215 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 216 ESTONIA NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduction of the at risk of poverty rate after social transfers to 15%, equivalent to an absolute decrease by 36,248 persons Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 217 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 EE AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 19.5 19.7 15.8 17.5 17.5 18.6 1.1 -0.9 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 259 262 211 232 233 248 6.4 -4.2 84877 83462 % of total pln 5.3 5.6 9.0 10.0 9.1 8.4 -0.7 3.1 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 55 58 92 102 93 86 -7.5 56.4 39644 40189 % of total pln 4.9 6.2 9.0 8.7 9.4 7.6 -1.8 2.7 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 65 83 119 115 124 100 -19.4 53.8 49673 48245 % of total pln 2.2 1.8 2.9 3.2 2.7 3.3 0.6 1.1 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 30 24 39 43 36 43 19.4 43.3 13552 13504 % of total pln 2.0 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.7 2.0 -0.7 0.0 2.8 2.7 -27.8 0.0 14249 13558 1000 persons 26 28 38 31 36 26 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.4 1.8 -0.6 0.7 1.8 1.8 15 19 26 32 31 24 -22.6 60.0 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 1 1 5 6 4 3 -25.0 200.0 3391 3685 SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 218 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT EE Real GDP growth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 2009 -4.1 -14.1 0.2 -9.9 5.5 13.5 1.7 3.7 14.8 18.8 2010 3.3 -4.8 16.7 7.6 17.8 2011 8.7 7.0 12.3 7.1 15.9 2012 4.5 2.1 10.0 5.5 15.3 2013 2.2 1.9 8.6 3.8 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) Note: social protection expenditure does not include administrative costs MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE EE Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 14.8 4.8 1.5 6.2 0.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 2009 18.8 5.3 1.9 7.9 0.1 2.2 1.2 0.0 0.1 2010 17.8 4.8 1.9 7.8 0.1 2.3 0.8 0.0 0.1 2011 15.9 4.4 1.8 6.9 0.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.1 2012 15.3 4.3 1.8 6.7 0.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 14.7 4.8 1.5 6.2 0.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 18.7 5.3 1.9 7.9 0.1 2.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 17.7 4.8 1.9 7.8 0.1 2.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 15.7 4.4 1.8 6.9 0.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 15.2 4.3 1.8 6.7 0.1 1.8 0.5 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 219 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 EE Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.1 1.7 1.1 -0.9 396 592 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 21.8 19.5 4538 23.4 19.7 4861 21.7 15.8 4448 23.1 17.5 4491 23.4 17.5 4734 23.5 18.6 5130 9530 4.9 10208 6.2 9340 9.0 9431 8.7 9942 9.4 10773 7.6 831 -1.8 5.3 13.6 20.3 19.5 5.6 12.9 17.0 18.9 9.0 9.9 23.2 19.7 10.0 10.5 26.0 23.9 9.1 12.0 23.8 24.2 8.4 9.3 21.5 21.0 21.1 5.0 3.6 23.9 5.0 4.4 36.6 5.0 6.0 29.7 5.3 7.4 29.4 5.4 7.9 26.8 5.5 7.2 220 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 1243 2.7 9.9 9.6 -0.7 -2.7 -2.3 -3.2 3.1 -4.3 1.2 1.5 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 10.7 -2.66 0.1 -0.7 5.72 0.5 3.6 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 EE Children (0-17) EE Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.1 2.9 1.1 1.0 -2.2 1.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 19.4 17.1 5.3 24.5 20.6 7.0 24.0 17.3 10.7 24.8 19.5 9.1 22.4 17.0 9.2 22.3 18.1 7.0 3.8 24.4 4.5 19.7 8.4 28.1 9.2 26.7 6.9 24.6 6.6 27.8 -0.3 3.2 2.8 3.4 35.0 55.2 30.6 55.1 44.4 53.9 35.9 24.0 40.6 23.1 34.2 33.3 -6.4 10.2 -0.8 -21.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17.8 15.3 3.9 21.8 15.6 7.4 25.6 18.7 9.2 29.4 22.4 11.7 27.8 20.9 10.9 27.1 21.4 9.4 3.8 3.3 4.9 11.1 6.4 2.8 3.0 10.7 19.0 4.9 7.4 4.3 12.4 18.6 7.8 7.0 10.3 9.0 14.6 9.1 7.6 9.3 8.5 15.0 12.6 6.1 7.2 7.4 14.5 9.3 221 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.7 9.3 0.5 6.1 -1.5 5.5 -1.5 -2.1 -1.1 -0.5 -3.3 2.3 3.9 2.5 3.4 2.9 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 EE % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (18-59) Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) EE % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.5 5.2 -0.4 2.3 -2.0 3.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17.5 15.0 4.5 19.9 15.8 6.1 21.8 15.6 9.1 24.2 18.0 9.3 24.2 17.7 10.0 22.7 17.3 8.0 5.8 7.4 26.5 42.1 4.0 5.9 8.3 23.1 41.6 4.6 9.1 6.7 25.9 39.9 6.4 10.3 8.2 29.7 14.0 8.3 9.8 8.5 29.9 13.6 8.6 9.0 7.7 28.3 20.8 7.4 -0.8 -0.8 -1.6 7.2 -1.2 3.2 0.3 1.8 -21.3 3.4 24.6 28.2 37.6 30.2 28.9 28.8 -0.1 4.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 40.9 39.0 5.8 0.62 0.45 25.4 35.6 33.9 5.6 0.66 0.52 24.2 19.0 15.1 6.6 0.73 0.55 23.6 17.0 13.1 5.8 0.75 0.54 5.5 21.8 17.2 7.1 0.72 0.50 5.5 28.0 24.4 6.3 0.69 0.50 8.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS), 222 Change Change 201220082013 2013 6.2 -12.9 7.2 -14.6 -0.8 0.5 -0.03 0.07 0.00 0.05 3.3 -16.6 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 EE % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 19.4 17.1 5.3 24.5 20.6 7.0 24.0 17.3 10.7 24.8 19.5 9.1 22.4 17.0 9.2 22.3 18.1 7.0 Change 20122013 -0.1 1.1 -2.2 3.8 4.5 8.4 9.2 6.9 6.6 -0.3 13.5 13.2 9.5 15.5 11.1 7.9 9.4 11.6 8.5 9.5 9.4 82.8 74.2 73.2 77.5 14.3 17.8 12.1 1.0 16.0 4.0 21.0 4.0 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 2.8 9.1 9.3 -3.2 -5.6 12.8 8.5 -0.9 -0.9 11.0 10.6 73.4 82.9 9.5 0.1 67.5 64.9 13.7 12.8 13.4 0.6 -0.9 15.9 15.6 2.0 19.0 4.0 15.0 4.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 9.0 6.0 9.0 10.0 37.0 84.0 84.0 86.0 83.0 83.0 46.0 24.4 11.9 19.7 10.1 28.1 7.7 26.7 8.7 24.6 10.1 27.8 8.9 3.2 -1.2 3.4 -3 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 16.6 14.9 10.7 11.9 13.3 12.0 -1.3 -4.6 28.4 27.6 35.0 30.6 44.4 35.9 40.6 34.2 -6.38 -0.8 39.3 41.3 3.2 5.3 14.0 2.3 80 14.4 55.2 5.5 6.8 13.5 2.2 57 18.6 55.1 6.2 5.6 11.0 1.5 53 16.8 53.9 7.3 6.1 10.6 3.3 36 8.4 24.0 7.1 6.3 10.3 4.5 50 8.5 23.1 7.8 4.4 9.7 0.7 -1.9 -0.6 4.6 -0.9 -4.3 10.5 6.7 12.0 8.3 33.3 -0.2 10.2 -6.1 -21.9 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 223 Change 20082013 2.9 1 1.7 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 46,2 50,1 3,9 Low income 64,9 56,4 -8,5 High income 26,6 34,5 7,9 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 36,4 40,2 (100/0/0)* (55/45/0)* 52,6 46,3 (100/0/0)* (61/39/0)* 20,4 27,1 (100/0/0)* (50/50/0)* 47,8 / 52,6 38,5 / 42,3 51,6 / 49,9 41,9 / 39,7 3,8 -6,3 6,7 40,5 44,8 4,3 31,9 36 4,1 57,5 / 22,9 50,6 / 31,1 (-6,9 / 8,2) 46,6 / 17,5 41,5 / 24,5 (-5,1 / 7) 57,9 58,9 1,0 45,6 47,4 1,8 83,5 / 35,3 66 / 40,7 40,9 39,6 -1,3 32,8 32,3 -0,5 43,9 48,4 4,5 34,6 38,9 4,3 44,1 47,4 3,3 34,8 38,1 3,3 39,2 41,2 2,0 30,9 33,1 2,2 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 38,7 23,0 -15,8 44,7 37,0 -7,7 36,0 22,4 -13,6 48,0 39,1 -8,9 (-17,5 / 5,4) 67,7 / 27,1 54,2 / 31,9 (-13,5 / 4,8) EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS EE Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 53 57.5 4 4.2 68.7 79.5 13.6 18.9 7.3 54.5 1039.67 6.06 2009 55 59.2 5.6 5.4 69.8 80.2 14 19.2 4.3 51.5 1032.94 6.93 2010 54.1 58.2 5.3 5.5 70.6 80.8 14.2 19.4 4.8 52.7 994.85 6.32 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 224 2011 54.3 57.9 5.6 5.7 71.4 81.3 14.8 20.1 7.3 51.8 1021.54 5.83 2012 53.1 57.2 5.4 5.5 71.4 81.5 14.8 20.3 8.3 52.4 1095.13 5.89 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS159 EE definition unit source definition unit source link comment definition unit source link Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment benefit Unemployment insurance benefit recipients thousands of recipients (monthly) Estonian Unemployment Insurance Fund http://www.tootukassa.ee/sites/tootukassa.ee/files/TKH_0.xls Definition: Unemployment insurance benefit recipients - unemployed persons who received a payment of unemployment insurance benefit during the specified period. Unemployment insurance is a type of compulsory insurance, unemployment insurance is financed from unemployment insurance premiums paid by the insured persons (employees) and the employers. The unemployment insurance benefit is paid to unemployed persons whose unemployment insurance period in the three preceding years is at least 12 months and whose last relationship did not end on their own initiative or mutual agreement. Social assistance benefit Subsistence benefit (to maintain subsistence level) receivers Number of granted applications (thousands, cumulative during the year) Ministry of Social Affairs http://www.sm.ee/et/muud-toetused-ja-teenused#Toimetulekutoetus http://pub.stat.ee/pxweb.2001/I_Databas/Social_life/15Social_protection/02Social_assistance/05Subsistence_benefits /05Subsistence_benefits.asp 159 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 225 comment definition unit source link comment definition unit source link comment A person living alone or a family whose monthly disposable income, after deduction of the fixed expenses connected with permanent dwelling during the current month, is below the subsistence level has right to receive a subsistence benefit. The subsistence level increased (by 20%) from the beginning of 2011. The subsistence level increased also in 2014 (by 17 % compared to the previous year) and as from 2015 the subsistence level will be higher for underage children. Note: In April 2010, a new social services and benefit register was introduced. Therefore the data from the 2nd quarter 2010 is not fully comparable with the previous data. Disability benefit Recipients of benefits for disabled persons Thousands of recipients at the end of quarter Source: Social Insurance Fund http://www.ensib.ee/?lang=en Disability is the loss of or an abnormality in an anatomical, physiological or mental structure of function of a person, which in conjunction with different relational and environmental restrictions prevents participation in social life on equal bases with others. From 2008 the disabled adult allowance was replaced by disability allowance for a person of working age and disability allowance for a person of retirement age. Therefore the indicator since 2008 includes recipients of three types of benefits: recipients of the allowance for disabled persons of at least 16 years of age, for disabled persons of working age and for disabled persons of retirement age. Incapacity for work Receivers of pension for incapacity for work Thousands of recipients at the end of quarter Social Insurance Board http://www.ensib.ee/?lang=en The right for the pension for incapacity for work has a person, who is at least 16 years of age and has been declared to be permanently incapable to work, loss of whose working capacity is 40 to 100 per cent and who by the initial date of granting of the pension has acquired the following pensionable service or accumulation period in Estonia. 226 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 227 IRELAND NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of persons in combined poverty (either consistent poverty, at-risk-ofpoverty or basic deprivation) by 200,000, from the 2010 baseline year. Note: The Irish combined poverty population is defined by combining two national poverty indicators: at-risk-of-poverty and basic deprivation. Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EUROPE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION2008-2011 (IE AND EU INDICATORS) Source: Social Inclusion Monitor 2013 (forthcoming), data from CSO SILC 2008-2013 228 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION USING IRISH INDICATORS (2013) Consistent poverty At-risk-of-poverty only Basic deprivation only 8.2% 7% 22.3% Consistent poverty (8.2%) At-risk-ofpoverty 15.2% Basic deprivation 30.5% Source: Social Inclusion Monitor 2013 (forthcoming), data from CSO SILC 2013 IE Combined poverty Consistent poverty At-risk-of-poverty Basic deprivation 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % of total population % 24.0% 25.7% 31.0% 33.6% 35.7% 37.5% 1,000 persons 1,076 1,165 1,412 1,542 1,637 1,722 % of total population 4.2% 5.5% 6.3% 6.9% 7.7% 8.2% 1,000 persons 188 249 287 317 353 377 14.4% 14.1% 14.7% 16.0% 16.5% 15.2% 646 639 670 734 757 698 13.8% 17.1% 22.6% 24.5% 26.9% 30.5% 619 775 1,029 1,124 1,233 1,401 % of total population 1,000 persons % of total population 1,000 persons Source: Social Inclusion Monitor 2013 (forthcoming), data from CSO SILC 2013 229 POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION USING EU INDICATORS (2013) EU28 IE % % of total pln 1000 persons % of total pln SMD 1000 persons % of total pln AROP+SMD 1000 persons AROP 2008 15.5 686 5.5 245 0.6 26 2009 15.0 670 6.1 274 0.6 26 2010 15.2 682 5.7 256 0.4 17 2011 15.2 680 7.8 352 0.4 19 2012 15.7 722 9.8 451 0.9 42 2013 14.1 648 9.9 455 0.6 29 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.6 -1.4 -10.2 -5.5 0.1 4.4 0.9 85.7 -0.3 0.0 -31.0 11.5 2012 2013 16.9 84877 9.9 49673 2.8 14249 16.7 83462 9.6 48245 2.7 13558 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: The Irish Government has requested the Commission to avoid the use of the very low work intensity (VLWI) indicator for Ireland, pending further investigation of the accuracy of this indicator. It is therefore not included in any of the tables and charts in this country profile. 230 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT IE Real GDP growth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 -2.6 -0.6 6.4 1.7 20.0 2009 -6.4 -7.8 12.0 3.5 24.9 2010 -0.3 -4.1 13.9 6.8 27.7 2011 2.8 -1.8 14.7 8.7 28.7 2012 -0.3 -0.6 14.7 9.1 31.0 2013 0.2 2.4 13.1 7.9 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE IE Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 20.0 7.9 1.1 4.6 0.9 3.1 1.8 0.2 0.4 2009 24.9 9.8 1.3 5.3 1.1 3.6 3.0 0.2 0.6 2010 27.7 11.4 1.4 6.2 0.5 3.5 3.8 0.6 0.3 2011 28.7 12.8 1.3 6.2 0.5 3.4 3.7 0.6 0.3 2012 31.0 15.1 1.3 6.4 0.5 3.4 3.6 0.5 0.3 5.0 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.4 6.5 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.6 7.8 1.7 0.8 1.1 0.0 1.4 2.0 0.6 0.3 8.2 1.8 0.7 1.1 0.0 1.4 2.4 0.6 0.2 8.3 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.0 1.3 2.5 0.5 0.2 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 15.0 6.7 0.5 3.8 0.9 2.0 1.1 18.4 8.3 0.6 4.3 1.1 2.3 1.7 19.9 9.7 0.6 5.1 0.5 2.1 1.8 20.5 10.9 0.6 5.2 0.5 2.0 1.3 22.6 13.0 0.6 5.3 0.5 2.0 1.1 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 231 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 IE Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income (growth) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 23.7 25.7 27.3 15.5 15.0 15.2 10901 10386 10102 29.4 15.2 9999 30.0 15.7 9622 Change 20122013 29.5 -0.5 14.1 -1.6 9581 -41 2013 22893 21810 21214 20998 20206 20119 5.5 6.1 5.7 7.8 9.8 9.9 17.7 15.5 16.2 15.4 15.5 20.0 17.5 21.7 19.1 25.3 17.4 25.4 54.4 4.4 3.3 60.0 4.2 4.0 61.9 4.7 4.9 61.6 4.6 6.1 60.1 4.7 6.6 63.4 4.5 4.9 232 Change 2008- 2012 2013 5.8 24.8 -1.4 16.9 -1320 -87 0.1 -2774 4.4 -1.7 0.1 -0.3 9.9 3.4 9.0 -0.2 -1.7 0.1 1.6 2013 24.5 16.7 9.9 10.2 23.5 18.2 9.6 23.8 18.3 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.1 -0.3 EU28 IE Children (0-17) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate IE Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 26.6 18.0 6.8 19.2 31.4 18.8 8.4 14.7 34.1 18.9 8.2 14.3 34.1 17.1 10.0 14.7 33.1 18.0 12.4 16.7 33.9 16.0 13.4 14.1 55.2 59.7 62.9 65.2 60.8 64.8 5.2 5.3 5.4 4.2 4.3 3.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 23.7 13.7 6.7 2.9 6.7 17.4 3.4 26.4 14.7 6.7 5.7 11.7 23.1 6.7 32.1 19.9 5.5 5.6 12.0 24.1 9.3 41.8 26.8 10.1 10.4 12.1 24.0 13.9 44.4 23.3 14.1 10.8 12.3 23.8 10.2 40.0 21.0 11.9 2.6 10.6 20.5 10.6 233 Change Change 2012- 2008- 2012 2013 2013 0.8 7.3 28.1 -2.0 -2.0 20.7 1.0 6.6 11.8 -2.6 -5.1 23.8 4.0 9.6 -0.4 -1.3 39.3 2013 27.6 20.3 11.0 25.2 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 Change Change 2012- 2008- 2012 2013 2013 -4.4 16.3 31.6 -2.3 7.3 23.1 -2.2 5.2 12.0 -8.2 -0.3 11.9 -1.7 3.9 9.7 -3.3 3.1 17.1 0.4 7.2 14.1 2013 31.8 22.7 12.0 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 IE % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Working age At risk-of-poverty gap (18-64) Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) IE % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 22.6 13.4 5.6 6.3 20.5 5.2 3.4 24.8 13.2 5.8 4.9 17.3 3.5 4.2 27.2 14.6 5.4 5.5 15.4 3.0 5.4 30.5 15.1 7.9 5.3 18.2 2.3 6.7 31.7 15.4 10.1 5.4 21.2 3.2 7.1 30.9 14.0 9.6 4.5 18.1 2.8 5.6 56.6 61.4 61.8 61.4 61.2 64.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 22.5 21.1 2.2 0.74 0.49 0.4 17.9 16.2 2.6 0.78 0.48 0.7 11.3 9.9 1.5 0.85 0.47 0.6 13.8 11.0 3.0 0.86 0.43 0.4 14.7 12.2 2.9 0.88 0.42 0.6 13.3 10.1 3.6 0.94 0.37 0.2 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 234 Change Change 2012- 2008- 2012 2013 2013 -0.8 8.3 25.4 -1.4 0.6 16.5 -0.5 4.0 10.0 -0.9 -1.8 9.1 -3.1 -2.4 25.9 -0.4 -2.4 18.1 -1.5 2.2 11.6 3.3 Change 20122013 -1.4 -2.1 0.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 7.9 2013 25.3 16.4 10.0 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change 2008- 2012 2013 -9.2 19.4 -11.0 14.6 1.4 7.5 0.2 0.91 -0.1 0.54 -0.2 6.8 2013 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN IE % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) In-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services EU28 Change Change 2013 2012 2013 2012-2013 2008-2013 33.9 0.8 7.3 28.1 27.6 16.0 -2.0 -2.0 20.7 20.3 13.4 1.0 6.6 11.8 11.0 12.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 26.6 18.0 6.8 31.4 18.8 8.4 34.1 18.9 8.2 34.1 17.1 10.0 33.1 18.0 12.4 8.5 5.3 6.2 4.4 6.2 4.5 -1.7 -4.0 11.0 10.6 11.0 7.5 9.3 6.3 6.8 6.6 -0.2 -4.4 15.9 15.6 16.0 15.0 21.0 10.0 14.0 8.0 5.0 8.0 11.0 14.0 72.0 74.0 73.0 68.0 37.0 13.0 13.0 17.0 14.0 46.0 19.2 - 14.7 19.6 14.3 16.3 14.7 14.8 16.7 14.8 14.1 16.1 -2.6 1.3 -5.1 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 - 24.9 21.5 19.8 20.3 22.4 2.1 3.8 28.4 27.6 55.2 59.7 62.9 65.2 60.8 64.8 4.0 9.6 39.3 41.3 3.6 11.0 11.3 1.3 284 1.2 5.2 4.4 11.5 11.7 1.0 247 1.9 5.3 4.6 11.5 11.5 1.0 271 0.7 5.4 5.7 10.5 10.8 1.9 262 1.1 4.2 6.9 11.3 9.7 2.2 250 0.6 4.3 4.2 10.5 8.4 1.6 -2.7 -0.8 -1.3 -0.6 0.6 -0.5 -2.9 0.3 10.5 6.7 12.0 1.8 3.9 1.2 -0.4 0.6 -1.3 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS); CSO for Infant mortality data 235 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 85,8 69,0 -16,8 Low income 99,1 83,8 -15,3 High income 61,9 49,6 -12,3 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 82 96,1 / 60,8 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 73,1 58,6 (38/0/62)* (47/0/53)* 88,3 72,9 (48/0/52)* (58/0/42)* 46,4 37,1 (30/0/70)* (38/0/62)* 65,4 / 73,3 54/64,2 75 / 64,5 66,4 / 52,7 67,5 -14,5 71,2 82,4 / 47,7 (-13,7/-13,1) 86,8 / 45,6 -14,5 -15,4 -9,3 56,6 -14,6 70,9 / 35,6 (-15,9/-10) 87,7 71,4 -16,3 75,2 61,7 -13,5 99 / 61,4 85,9 / 52,4 (-13 / -9) 89,7 / 47,2 76 / 39,4 (-13,6/-7,8) 78,7 65,5 -13,2 66,6 54,1 -12,5 81,3 66,8 -14,5 69 55,7 -13,3 79,7 66,8 -12,9 67,1 55,7 -11,4 74,1 61,8 -12,3 62,3 49,2 -13,1 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 : : : 44,7 37,0 -7,7 37,3 38,0 0,7 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS IE Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 63.5 65 9.3 10.3 77.8 82.4 16.8 20.3 1.8 84.3 2009 63.9 65.2 10.2 10.5 77.7 82.7 17.4 20.8 2 83.1 2010 65.9 67 11.1 11.2 78.7 83.2 18.1 21.1 2.1 82.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 236 2011 66.1 68.3 10.9 11.8 78.6 83 17.9 20.9 2.2 83.1 2012 65.9 68.5 10.9 12.2 78.7 83.2 18 21.1 3.4 82.7 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS160 Unemployment IE Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total definition Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted unit Eurostat source Unemployment benefit Unemployment Benefit and Assistance recipients definition thousands of recipients unit Social Welfare Monthly Statistical Reports source Social assistance benefit Emergency Social Assistance recipients definition thousands of beneficiaries unit Social Welfare Monthly Statistical Reports source Disability benefit Illness, Disability & Caring recipients definition thousands of beneficiaries unit Social Welfare Monthly Statistical Reports source 160 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 237 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 238 GREECE NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 450,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 239 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 EL AROP VLWI SMD % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 20.1 19.7 20.1 21.4 23.1 23.1 0.0 3.0 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 2187 2149 2205 2349 2536 2529 -0.3 15.6 84877 83462 % of total pln 7.5 6.6 7.6 12.0 14.2 18.2 4.0 10.7 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 611 539 619 978 1158 1466 26.6 139.9 39644 40189 % of total pln 11.2 11.0 11.6 15.2 19.5 20.3 0.8 9.1 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 1213 1198 1269 1667 2141 2223 3.8 83.3 49673 48245 % of total pln 1.1 1.0 1.2 2.1 2.4 2.7 0.3 1.6 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 122 107 134 226 260 291 11.9 138.5 13552 13504 % of total pln 5.2 5.3 6.1 6.3 8.2 7.2 -1.0 2.0 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 564 576 669 693 900 789 -12.3 39.9 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.8 3.6 5.2 1.6 4.1 1.8 1.8 124 85 108 303 396 565 42.7 355.6 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 31 26 43 67 86 104 20.9 235.5 3391 3685 AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC), Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 240 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT EL Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 -0.2 1.2 7.8 3.7 25.4 2009 -3.1 -0.6 9.6 3.9 27.4 2010 -4.9 -2.6 12.7 5.7 28.2 2011 -7.1 -5.6 17.9 8.8 28.9 2012 -7.0 -8.3 24.5 14.5 30.0 2013 -3.9 -4.1 27.5 18.5 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE EL Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 25.4 7.4 1.2 10.8 2.1 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.6 2009 27.4 8.0 1.3 11.3 2.2 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.6 2010 28.2 8.2 1.3 11.9 2.2 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.6 2011 28.9 7.5 1.4 12.7 2.3 1.8 2.1 0.4 0.7 2012 30.0 6.4 1.3 15.4 2.4 1.6 1.9 0.2 0.6 1.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.1 2.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.1 1.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.2 1.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.2 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 23.5 7.4 1.0 10.4 2.0 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.4 25.4 8.0 1.1 11.0 2.1 1.3 1.6 0.0 0.4 26.3 8.2 1.1 11.6 2.0 1.2 1.7 0.0 0.5 27.0 7.4 1.2 12.4 2.2 1.2 2.1 0.0 0.5 28.3 6.4 1.2 15.0 2.3 1.1 1.9 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 241 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 EL Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.1 7.6 0 3 -586 -1767 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 28.1 20.1 7219 27.6 19.7 7521 27.7 20.1 7559 31.0 21.4 6976 34.6 23.1 6038 35.7 23.1 5452 15160 11.2 15794 11.0 15874 11.6 14650 15.2 12679 19.5 11450 20.3 -1229 0.8 -3710 9.1 7.5 13.0 24.7 20.1 6.6 16.1 24.1 18.9 7.6 17.6 23.4 18.0 12.0 10.5 26.1 24.9 14.2 13.8 29.9 35.8 18.2 4 10.7 32.7 44.3 2.8 8.5 13.7 5.9 22.2 13.2 5.8 21.8 15.6 5.6 18.1 13.7 6.0 24.2 13.8 6.6 33.1 17.5 6.6 36.9 3.69 0 3.8 242 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 8 24.2 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 3.77 0.7 14.7 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 EL Children (0-17) EL Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 2.7 9.4 1.9 5.8 2.4 12.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 28.7 23.0 10.4 30.0 23.7 12.2 28.7 23.0 12.2 30.4 23.7 16.4 35.4 26.9 20.9 38.1 28.8 23.3 3.9 26.0 2.7 26.4 3.9 26.0 7.2 27.4 7.6 36.0 13.8 39.0 6.2 3.0 9.9 13.0 10.9 30.6 6.0 27.9 10.9 29.0 10.6 28.9 9.7 27.3 18.2 32.9 8.5 5.6 7.3 2.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 34.0 23.0 13.8 31.6 22.3 14.8 38.4 27.6 18.0 40.3 26.9 22.5 48.3 33.1 29.0 50.7 34.1 29.4 8.3 15.5 6.6 15.6 30.5 6.6 11.6 7.9 16.9 32.8 11.2 11.9 9.9 20.3 33.1 14.0 12.9 13.0 24.2 35.2 19.3 13.3 16.1 28.1 48.2 21.6 18.1 16.5 28.2 49.3 243 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2.4 16.7 1.0 11.1 0.4 15.6 2.3 4.8 0.4 0.1 1.1 13.3 2.6 9.9 12.6 18.8 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 EL % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) EL % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.4 11.2 0.3 5.4 0.9 11.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 27.9 18.7 10.4 27.1 18.1 10.3 27.7 19.0 11.2 31.6 20.0 15.4 37.7 23.8 20.7 39.1 24.1 21.6 8.6 14.2 25.9 29.2 22.9 7.8 13.7 26.1 27.8 22.4 8.7 13.9 24.8 28.4 18.6 13.5 11.9 28.8 28.8 23.5 16.3 15.1 32.5 30.2 34.4 19.6 13.0 33.6 29.9 38.1 3.3 -2.1 1.1 -0.3 3.7 11.0 -1.2 7.7 0.7 15.2 13.8 13.0 14.4 13.0 14.4 16.3 1.9 2.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 28.1 22.3 14.8 0.86 0.41 14.2 26.8 21.4 12.1 0.86 0.41 12.8 26.7 21.3 12.4 0.84 0.42 12.5 29.3 23.6 13.1 0.81 0.45 13.2 23.5 17.2 14.3 1.01 0.52 14.1 23.1 15.1 13.7 1.04 0.60 14.4 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 244 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.4 -5.0 -2.1 -7.2 -0.6 -1.1 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.19 0.3 0.2 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 EL % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 28.7 23.0 10.4 30.0 23.7 12.2 28.7 23.0 12.2 30.4 23.7 16.4 35.4 26.9 20.9 38.1 28.8 23.3 Change 20122013 2.7 1.9 2.4 3.9 2.7 3.9 7.2 7.6 13.8 6.2 14.2 19.8 21.4 11.7 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.2 14.4 18.5 15.6 -2.9 -1.3 11.0 10.6 60.3 54.0 56.0 79.2 84.4 81.3 -3.1 21 67.5 64.9 21.4 22.8 21.6 19.2 22.1 20.4 -1.7 -1 15.9 15.6 5.0 7.0 4.0 7.0 3.0 5.0 4.0 15.0 5.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 29.0 33.0 46.0 43.0 37.0 37.0 26.0 25.0 23.0 32.0 39.0 46.0 26.0 11.4 26.4 9.1 26.0 7.2 27.4 36.0 15.7 12.8 10.5 9.0 8.6 10.9 6.0 10.9 10.6 9.7 18.2 8.45 27.4 6.8 14.4 1.2 314 9.3 30.6 26.5 6.9 14.2 2.0 371 8.3 27.9 20.2 7.9 13.5 1.3 436 7.9 29.0 27.4 8.6 12.9 2.4 357 7.1 28.9 38.4 10.0 11.3 1.9 293 5.8 27.3 44.0 10.2 10.1 7.7 32.9 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 245 Change 20082013 9.4 5.8 12.9 9.9 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 39.0 3 13 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 28.4 27.6 7.33 39.3 41.3 5.6 0.2 -1.2 16.6 3.4 -4.3 10.5 6.7 12.0 1.9 5.6 -1.6 2.3 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference Gross2010 121,3 87,0 -34,3 100,8 Low income 130,8 93,0 -37,8 109,3 High income 101,8 64,6 -37,2 83,1 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 126,4 133,5 / 110,9 42 years career: average income Low / high income 126,1 Gross2050 Difference 67,9 (100/0/0)* 74,4 (100/0/0)* 47,8 (100/0/0)* 87 / 87 67.9 / 67.9 76,5 / 99,1 58,5 / 80 81,5 -44,9 108,8 63,2 -32,9 -34,9 -35,3 -45,6 88,4 / 60 ( - 45,1 / -50,9) 111,1 / 91,1 69,9 / 43,5 ( - 41,2 / -47,6) 88,9 -37,2 105 69,9 -35,1 141,2 / 105,3 92,7 / 64,3 ( - 48,5 / -41) 114,2 / 86,3 86,3 / 47,5 ( - 27,9 / - 26,7) 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) 114,6 71,6 -43,0 93,7 53,7 -40,0 121,3 87 -34,3 100,8 68 -32,9 121,3 87 -34,3 100,8 68 -32,9 96,7 63,8 -32,9 76,4 47,3 -29,1 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 35,9 29,0 -6,9 44,7 37,0 -7,7 59,3 52,4 -6,9 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS EL Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 65.8 66.1 9 8.3 77.7 82.3 17.8 19.8 5.4 76 2009 66.1 66.8 7.9 7.3 77.8 82.7 18.1 20.2 5.5 75.4 2253.37 10.19 2010 66.3 67.7 8.8 8.1 78.4 82.8 18.5 20.4 5.5 75.5 2042.33 9.48 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 246 2011 66.2 66.9 9 7.9 78 83.6 18.2 21.2 7.5 76.4 2000.32 9.79 2012 64.8 64.9 8.6 7.3 78 83.4 18.1 21 8 74.8 1812.04 9.27 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS161 EL definition unit source definition unit source comment Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment benefit Registered at the National Manpower Agency (OAED) receiving an unemployment benefit thousands of receivers National Statistical Service of Greece (NSSG), Labour Force Survey Note on the unemployed receiving or not an unemployment benefit: In the above data, the unemployed are defined according to the Eurostat definition. Therefore, it should be underlined that the above figures for the registered unemployed (receiving or not an unemployment benefit) are lower enough than the figures of the National Manpower Agency for the registered unemployed, largely due to the fact that only recipients classified as ―unemployment‖ according to the Eurostat definition are taken into account. ‖ 161 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 247 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 248 SPAIN NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 1,400,000-1,500,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; VLWI - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the income reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. To note that there is a major break in 2013 in Spain for income variables in EU-SILC. 249 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 ES AROP VLWI % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 20.8 20.1 21.4 22.2 22.2 20.4 -1.8 -0.4 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 9415 9223 9881 10257 10276 9425 -8.3 0.1 84877 83462 % of total pln 6.6 7.6 10.8 13.4 14.3 15.7 1.4 9.1 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 2351 2725 3900 4810 5137 5604 9.1 138.4 39644 40189 % of total pln 3.6 4.5 4.9 4.5 5.8 6.2 0.4 2.6 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 1625 2066 2264 2100 2708 2862 5.7 76.1 49673 48245 % of total pln 2.4 2.6 4.0 5.2 5.0 5.6 0.6 3.2 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 1089 1180 1822 2407 2340 2574 10.0 136.4 13552 13504 % of total pln 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 0.1 0.1 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 673 659 868 511 711 745 4.8 10.7 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.3 2.0 1.9 -0.1 1.4 1.8 1.8 229 450 475 624 925 858 -7.2 274.7 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 47 41 88 210 129 223 72.9 374.5 3391 3685 SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). ii) There is a major break in 2013 in Spain for income variables in EU-SILC. 250 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT ES Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 0.9 -0.1 11.3 2.0 21.5 2009 -3.8 -6.5 17.9 4.3 24.7 2010 -0.2 -2.2 19.9 7.3 25.0 2011 0.1 -1.9 21.4 8.9 25.5 2012 -1.6 -4.2 24.8 11.0 25.4 2013 -1.2 -3.0 26.1 13.0 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE ES Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 21.5 6.8 1.6 7.1 2.0 1.4 2.3 0.2 0.2 2009 24.7 7.3 1.7 7.9 2.1 1.5 3.6 0.2 0.2 2010 25.0 7.2 1.7 8.5 2.2 1.5 3.4 0.2 0.2 2011 25.5 7.1 1.8 8.8 2.3 1.4 3.7 0.2 0.2 2012 25.4 6.7 1.8 9.2 2.4 1.4 3.6 0.1 0.2 2.9 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 3.4 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 3.7 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.2 4.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.2 3.7 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.2 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 18.6 6.8 1.2 6.0 1.7 1.0 1.9 21.2 7.3 1.3 6.6 1.9 1.1 3.0 21.3 7.2 1.3 7.1 1.9 1.1 2.6 21.4 7.1 1.3 7.4 2.0 1.0 2.6 21.7 6.7 1.4 7.8 2.0 1.0 2.8 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 251 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 ES Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.9 2.8 -1.8 -0.4 1127 382 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24.5 20.8 8161 24.5 20.1 8114 26.7 21.4 7780 27.7 22.2 7532 28.2 22.2 7416 27.3 20.4 8543 17138 3.6 17040 4.5 16338 4.9 15817 4.5 15573 5.8 17940 6.2 2367 0.4 802 2.6 6.6 11.0 24.4 20.8 7.6 12.5 28.9 21.2 10.8 11.6 32.3 22.9 13.4 11.4 30.9 26.4 14.3 11.6 31.4 28.1 15.7 1.4 9.1 30.9 22.2 -0.5 -5.9 17.5 5.7 10.1 20.2 6.4 12.8 25.7 7.2 13.2 26.0 7.1 13.8 25.0 7.2 14.3 32.0 6.3 10.3 -0.7 4.8 -1.7 -3.9 -5.6 0.2 252 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 6.5 1.4 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 7 -0.9 -4 14.54 0.6 0.2 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 5.8 0.9 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 ES Children (0-17) ES Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.2 2.0 -2.4 -0.7 0.7 2.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 30.6 28.2 5.5 30.0 26.8 6.7 33.1 29.2 7.4 33.2 29.5 5.2 33.8 29.9 7.6 32.6 27.5 8.3 4.3 26.2 6.1 33.5 9.5 35.1 11.6 35.8 12.3 33.9 13.8 35.4 1.5 1.5 9.5 9.2 13.0 9.0 16.0 8.2 20.0 7.5 20.3 9.5 18.8 8.5 27.6 7.1 8.9 -1.4 14.7 -1.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 26.2 21.1 4.4 26.4 20.9 5.9 29.9 23.7 6.5 31.7 24.8 7.0 35.6 28.4 6.9 36.5 28.2 7.8 7.9 10.7 11.7 16.7 11.2 7.4 13.2 17.0 22.3 13.6 10.1 15.9 17.7 22.1 14.9 13.3 10.8 18.9 22.8 14.1 15.5 12.4 20.6 23.6 16.5 17.7 15.5 21.0 24.0 12.4 253 Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.9 10.3 -0.2 7.1 0.9 3.4 2.2 3.1 0.4 0.4 -4.1 9.8 4.8 9.3 7.3 1.2 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 ES % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) ES % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.5 7.1 -1.5 3.1 0.4 3.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 22.1 17.3 3.5 23.0 17.5 4.5 26.3 19.5 4.9 27.8 20.8 4.8 29.7 21.9 6.1 29.2 20.4 6.5 7.3 11.1 26.1 5.6 10.3 8.0 11.6 33.0 5.2 13.4 11.2 12.6 35.5 5.1 13.9 13.9 12.1 34.2 6.8 14.5 14.9 12.3 34.0 5.7 15.3 16.3 10.6 31.4 5.5 11.1 1.4 -1.7 -2.6 -0.2 -4.2 22.1 24.2 29.9 29.7 28.0 34.6 6.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 27.7 26.9 1.9 0.79 0.49 1.8 24.3 23.1 2.3 0.82 0.50 2.0 21.4 20.5 2.2 0.86 0.53 2.1 20.9 19.5 2.7 0.86 0.56 2.4 16.6 14.8 2.9 0.93 0.58 1.9 14.5 12.7 2.7 1.00 0.60 1.8 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 9.0 -0.5 5.3 -0.1 0.8 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 12.6 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -2.1 -13.2 -2.1 -14.2 -0.2 0.8 0.07 0.21 0.02 0.11 -0.1 0.0 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) Note: i) ratio indicators are not expressed in %; all changes are in percentage points' difference with the exception of the poverty threshold, S80/S20. ii) There is a major break in 2013 in Spain for income variables in EU-SILC. 254 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 ES % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 30.6 28.2 5.5 30.0 26.8 6.7 33.1 29.2 7.4 33.2 29.5 5.2 33.8 29.9 7.6 32.6 27.5 8.3 Change 20122013 -1.2 -2.4 0.7 4.3 6.1 9.5 11.6 12.3 13.8 1.5 17.1 18.5 19.1 15.7 18.7 15.5 15.1 16.0 15.1 16.0 13.6 -2.4 -1.9 11.0 10.6 76.4 83.0 78.4 80.8 83.7 78.6 -5.1 2.2 67.5 64.9 26.1 23.2 23.9 22.7 22.3 19.3 -3 -6.8 15.9 15.6 22.0 16.0 18.0 18.0 20.0 18.0 20.0 19.0 21.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 50.0 50.0 45.0 45.0 52.0 37.0 45.0 44.0 50.0 41.0 40.0 46.0 26.2 15.3 0.8 19.2 33.5 13.3 1.6 16.5 35.1 13.2 1.3 16.5 35.8 12.8 2.5 16.2 33.9 10.5 1.2 13.7 35.4 11.6 1.5 1.1 9.2 -3.7 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 15.1 1.4 -4.1 28.4 27.6 13.0 16.0 20.0 20.3 18.8 27.6 8.88 14.67 39.3 41.3 14.7 11.4 31.7 0.2 1717 2.5 9.0 18.9 12.5 30.9 0.2 1578 3.1 8.2 18.3 11.6 28.2 0.1 1531 2.9 7.5 19.5 11.0 26.3 0.2 1477 3.3 9.5 20.5 10.4 24.7 0.2 1389 2.1 8.5 13.7 10.1 23.6 -6.8 -0.3 -1.1 -1 -1.3 -8.1 10.5 6.7 12.0 2.7 7.1 0.6 -1.4 0.2 -1.9 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) Note: There is a major break in 2013 in Spain for income variables in EU-SILC. 255 Change 20082013 2 -0.7 2.8 9.5 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 94,5 86,5 -8,0 Low income 94,6 86,5 -8,1 High income 77,7 68,0 -9,7 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 83 88,5 / 71,7 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 86,5 79,1 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 86,5 79,1 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 69,2 59,3 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 86 / 86 80,4 / 80,4 96 / 77,5 91,2 / 71,1 63,4 -19,6 65,2 / 51,2 (-23,4/-20,4) 74,2 55,4 75,2 / 63 -7,4 -7,4 -9,9 -18,8 55,4 / 41,5 (-19,9/-21,5) 98,2 92,3 -5,9 90,9 85,4 -5,5 99,7 / 81,3 92,9 / 72,5 (-6,8/-8,8) 91,6 / 73,4 85,4 / 64 (-6,2/-9,4) 86 78,2 -7,8 78,6 71,5 -7,1 94,5 86,5 -8,0 86,5 79,1 -7,4 92,3 84,7 -7,6 84,4 77,5 -6,9 86,1 77,8 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 EU27 2050 Difference 55,3 46,4 -8,8 44,7 37,0 -7,7 72,4 56,6 -15,9 48,0 39,1 -8,9 Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS ES Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 64.1 63.6 9.9 8.7 78.2 84.5 18.1 22.1 0.4 72.8 2239.54 8.93 2009 62.9 62.2 9.2 8.4 78.7 84.9 18.3 22.4 0.4 71.1 2236.39 9.6 2010 64.4 63.9 9.6 8.9 79.1 85.3 18.6 22.7 0.3 71.9 2240.43 9.65 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 256 2011 65.4 65.8 9.7 9.3 79.5 85.6 18.8 23 0.6 75.1 2186.31 9.44 2012 64.8 65.8 9.2 9 79.5 85.5 18.7 22.8 0.7 74.3 2163.77 9.3 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS162 definition unit source definition unit source definition unit source definition unit source Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment benefit Number of Unemployment Benefits Total (In Thousands) 1) Contributory Unemployment Benefit 2) Social Assistance Unemployment Benefit 3) Programme of active insertion income thousands of recipients Ministry of Employment and Social Security Social assistance benefit/means-tested minimum income RMI : Minimum Income for Insertion (holders) thousands of beneficiaries Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality Disability benefit Number of invalidity pensions thousands of recipients Ministry of Employment and Social Security 162 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 257 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012. There is a major break in 2013 for income variables in EU-SILC, so the reference period 2008-2012 is used for the long term changes in indicators based on EU-SILC income data, since the 2013 data are not comparable to 2008. 258 FRANCE NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 1,900,000 (baseline year: 2007) Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 259 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 FR AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 12.5 12.9 13.3 14.0 14.1 13.7 -0.4 1.2 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 7554 7820 8112 8605 8707 8496 -2.4 12.5 84877 83462 % of total pln 8.8 8.4 9.9 9.4 8.4 7.9 -0.5 -0.9 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 4069 3873 4585 4346 3902 3670 -5.9 -9.8 39644 40189 % of total pln 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.2 5.3 5.1 -0.2 -0.3 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 3253 3372 3530 3211 3256 3133 -3.8 -3.7 49673 48245 % of total pln 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.4 0.1 0.3 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 1282 1213 1559 1573 1426 1489 4.4 16.1 13552 13504 % of total pln 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 0.1 0.3 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 662 944 903 960 816 880 7.8 32.9 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 -0.1 0.0 1.8 1.8 745 721 922 789 815 740 -9.2 -0.7 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 292 265 209 211 232 222 -4.3 -24.0 3391 3685 AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC), Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 260 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT FR Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 -0.1 0.5 7.4 2.8 29.7 2009 -3.1 -1.1 9.1 3.2 31.5 2010 1.7 0.0 9.3 3.7 31.7 2011 2.0 0.7 9.2 3.8 31.6 2012 0.0 0.1 9.8 4.0 32.1 2013 0.2 -0.2 10.3 4.1 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE FR Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 29.7 8.6 1.8 11.5 1.8 2.6 1.9 0.8 0.6 2009 31.5 9.2 2.0 12.4 1.8 2.6 1.9 0.8 0.7 2010 31.7 9.3 2.0 12.5 1.8 2.5 2.0 0.8 0.7 2011 31.6 9.2 2.0 12.6 1.8 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.8 2012 32.1 9.2 2.1 12.9 1.8 2.6 2.0 0.8 0.8 3.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.6 3.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.7 3.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.8 0.7 3.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 3.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 26.4 8.6 1.5 11.1 1.5 2.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 28.1 9.2 1.6 11.9 1.5 2.0 1.8 28.3 9.2 1.6 12.0 1.4 2.0 1.8 28.2 9.2 1.7 12.2 1.4 2.0 1.8 28.6 9.2 1.7 12.4 1.4 2.1 1.8 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 261 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 FR Total population % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion 18.5 18.5 19.2 19.3 At-risk-of-poverty rate 12.5 12.9 13.3 14.0 Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS 10496 10644 10669 10897 Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger 22041than 22353 14 years) 22406 - in PPS 22883 Severe material deprivation rate 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.2 Share of people living in very low work intensity 8.8households 8.4 (0-59) 9.9 9.4 Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap 14.5 18.2 19.5 17.1 Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate 12.5 12.5 12.3 13.7 Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction 46.8 (excl. pensions) 46.3 46.6 43.3 S80/S20 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.6 Housing cost overburden rate 4.2 4.0 5.1 5.2 Real change in gross household disposable income 0.4 growth 1.7 1.3 0.3 19.1 14.1 11271 23668 5.3 8.4 7.0 16.2 13.8 40.8 4.5 5.2 -0.8 18.1 13.7 11631 24424 5.1 7.9 262 16.6 13.3 43.4 4.5 5.0 0.0 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1 -0.4 -0.4 1.2 360 1135 756 2383 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 0.4 -0.5 2.63 0 -0.2 0.8 2.1 0.8 -3.42 0.1 0.8 -0.4 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 34.5 5 11.2 -1.1 9.6 10.7 23.8 18.3 35.27 5 11 -0.3 EU28 FR Children (0-17) FR Youth (18-24) % 2010 2011 2012 2013 At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion 21.2 21.2 22.9 At-risk-of-poverty rate 15.6 16.8 18.1 Severe material deprivation rate 6.6 6.5 7.0 Share of people living in very low work intensity 7.4households 6.6 8.8 At risk-of-poverty gap 14.5 18.2 17.2 Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction 55.3 (excl. pensions) 51.5 50.0 Overcrowding rate 13.6 14.1 13.2 23.0 18.8 7.0 8.2 16.7 47.5 11.6 23.2 19.0 7.2 7.2 15.4 44.3 11.3 21.3 18.0 6.0 6.4 16.7 47.4 10.5 % 2008 2008 2009 2009 At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion 27.4 26.6 At-risk-of-poverty rate 21.0 21.1 Severe material deprivation rate 8.4 8.6 Share of people living in very low work intensity 9.4households 8.3 In-work at-risk-of poverty rate 12.2 10.7 Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) 7.1 9.2 NEET rate 13.5 16.5 Housing cost overburden rate 10.0 9.1 2010 2011 2012 2013 30.3 24.3 8.1 10.7 12.2 8.9 16.2 11.7 29.1 22.4 6.9 11.0 11.2 8.4 15.8 11.3 27.8 23.0 7.3 9.4 12.0 8.9 16.2 12.8 28.3 22.7 6.3 9.9 13.5 9.0 14.6 11.2 263 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.9 0.1 -1.0 2.4 -1.2 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 1.3 2.2 3.1 -7.9 -0.8 -3.1 Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.5 0.9 -0.3 1.7 -1.0 -2.1 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.3 0.1 1.9 -1.6 1.1 -1.6 1.2 2012 2013 28.1 27.6 20.7 20.3 11.8 11.0 9.1 9.3 23.8 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 FR % 2010 2011 2012 2013 At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion 18.8 18.9 19.9 At-risk-of-poverty rate 11.6 11.8 12.7 Severe material deprivation rate 5.5 5.9 6.0 Share of people living in very low work intensity 9.4households 9.1 10.3 Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate 6.5 6.6 6.5 (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap 18.5 19.8 21.7 Overcrowding rate 10.1 9.7 9.5 Housing cost overburden rate 4.9 4.3 5.9 Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction 47.3 (excl. pensions) 47.8 48.0 20.1 13.5 5.2 9.8 7.6 18.3 8.2 6.1 43.8 19.8 13.7 5.4 8.9 8.0 17.6 8.5 6.3 41.0 19.2 13.6 5.4 8.5 8.0 17.6 8.1 6.1 43.6 FR % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 14.1 11.9 3.3 0.95 0.65 3.3 13.4 11.9 3.2 0.96 0.66 3.0 11.8 9.4 3.4 0.98 0.65 3.0 11.5 9.7 2.9 1.01 0.64 2.4 11.1 9.4 2.4 1.00 0.65 2.4 10.4 8.7 2.7 1.02 0.64 2.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 264 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.6 0.4 -0.1 2.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 0.0 1.5 0.0 -0.9 -0.4 -2.0 -0.2 1.2 2.6 -3.7 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.7 -3.7 -0.7 -3.2 0.3 -0.6 0.02 0.07 -0.01 -0.01 -0.3 -1.2 2012 2013 25.4 25.3 16.5 16.4 10.0 10.0 10.9 11.1 9.1 8.9 25.9 25.8 18.1 18.7 11.6 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 FR % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 21.2 15.6 6.6 21.2 16.8 6.5 22.9 18.1 7.0 23.0 18.8 7.0 23.2 19.0 7.2 21.3 18.0 6.0 Change 20122013 -1.9 -1 -1.2 7.4 6.6 8.8 8.2 7.2 6.4 -0.8 -1 9.7 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.6 9.1 9.1 0 1.8 11.0 10.6 64.7 72.9 72.9 75.9 77.9 77.9 0 13.2 67.5 64.9 11.5 12.8 12.7 13.6 14.3 13.8 -0.5 2.3 15.9 15.6 17.0 23.0 16.0 25.0 17.0 26.0 18.0 26.0 17.0 23.0 14.0 14.0 52.0 48.0 47.0 43.0 45.0 37.0 44.0 47.0 47.0 52.0 50.0 46.0 14.5 30.4 6.5 35.2 18.2 30.5 17.2 28.8 16.7 29.3 15.4 29.4 16.7 26.1 1.3 -3.3 2.2 -4.3 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 35.3 33.6 34.0 34.4 30.4 -4 -4.8 28.4 27.6 55.3 51.5 50.0 47.5 44.3 47.4 3.09 -7.93 39.3 41.3 1.6 5.2 11.5 1.6 3149 5.0 13.6 2.0 6.5 12.2 2.0 3180 4.7 14.1 3.7 6.4 12.5 1.5 3022 4.4 13.2 4.3 6.1 11.9 2.8 2846 3.6 11.6 3.8 6.3 11.5 2.2 2917 3.9 11.3 3.5 6.6 9.7 -0.3 0.3 -1.8 1.9 1.4 -1.8 10.5 6.7 12.0 3.4 10.5 -0.5 -0.8 -1.6 -3.1 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 265 Change 20082013 0.1 2.4 -0.6 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 77,6 58,8 -18,8 Low income 78,5 59,0 -19,5 High income 63 48,0 -15,0 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 66,6 66,9 / 54,5 42 years career: average income Low / high income 80,9 82 / 66,1 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 63,9 47,3 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 64,3 47,3 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 47,9 37,4 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 58,8 / 58,8 47,3 / 47,3 69,4 / 50,8 56,7 / 40,2 51,3 -15,3 53,9 40,6 50,5 / 43,6 (-16,4 /-10,9) 54,4 / 41,4 65,4 -15,5 -17,0 -10,5 -13,3 40,6 / 32,6 (-13,8/-8,8) 66,9 53,2 66,9 / 55,1 (-15,1 /-11) 67,3 / 50,5 -16,6 -13,7 53,7 / 41,7 (-13,6 /-8,8) 65,5 51 -14,5 53,6 40,4 -13,2 76,4 61,2 -15,2 62,9 49,4 -13,5 76,9 58,5 -18,4 63,3 46,8 -16,5 56,5 42,3 -14,2 45,2 33,3 -11,9 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 39,8 32,3 -7,5 44,7 37,0 -7,7 58,8 53,2 -5,6 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS FR Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 62.7 64.6 8.7 10.1 77.8 84.8 18.5 23 1.9 69.1 2958.69 10.91 2009 62.8 63.5 9 9.5 78 85 18.7 23.2 1.9 68.6 3005.9 11.6 2010 61.8 63.4 9 9.8 78.2 85.3 18.9 23.4 1.9 67.3 3114.99 11.55 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 266 2011 62.7 63.6 9.7 9.9 78.7 85.7 19.3 23.8 2.3 67.6 3205.33 11.52 2012 62.6 63.8 9.4 10.4 78.7 85.4 19.1 23.4 2.2 68.1 3303.14 11.61 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS163 FR definition unit source definition unit source link definition unit source link comment Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment benefit 1 persons entitled to U unemployment insurance scheme : ARE (Allocation de Retour à l'Emploi) thousands of beneficiaries Seasonnaly adjusted (France Métropolitaine) Fichier National des Assédics (FNA) http://www.unedic.org/etude-et-prevision/situations-detaillees-de-l-assurancechomage-pour-l-annee-2013 Unemployment benefit 2 persons entitled to U assistance scheme ASS PER YEAR: (Allocation de Solidarité Spécifique) thousands of beneficiaries - Seasonally adjusted (the whole of France) Cnamts, Cnaf, MSA, Drees, Pôle Emploi, FSV, Cnav, CDC, régime des caisses des DOM SHEET RSA http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/tableau.asp?reg_id=0&ref_id=natsos04604 http://www.drees.sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/minima_sociaux_2013.pdf na: not available with the same filed (the whole of France) 163 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 267 definition unit source link comment Social assistance benefit Households entitled to social assistance Benefit (RSA since Q2/2009) RSA Socle & RSA Activité thousands of beneficiaries (the whole of France) CNAF http://www.caf.fr/etudes-et-statistiques/donnees-statistiques/solidarite-et-insertion RSA definition: A new social assistance scheme, revenu de solidarité active (RSA), has been introduced in June 2009. It replaces two former social assistance benefits, the former minimum income scheme (revenu minimum d’insertion, RMI), and the lone parents benefit (allocation de parent isolé, API), and the various in-work benefits which were related to these two social assistance benefits. Notably for these reasons, the data on RMI and the data on RSA are not fully comparable. Moreover, only one part of RSA (RSA socle) is a social assistance scheme. Within the attached data, the whole of beneficiaries are covered: - « RSA socle » only - « RSA activité » only. This case (RSA activité) completes the amount of ARE in the case of a low income. - and « RSA socle + activité ». This case represents the beneficiaries who receive only the RSA socle (when they have not work income) or beneficiaries who are in a situation of full cumulation RSA socle+activité for 3 months following the resumption of employment during the last twelve months. 268 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 269 CROATIA NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduction of the number of persons at risk of poverty or social exclusion to 1,220,000, equivalent to a decrease by 152,000 persons compared to 2011 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 270 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 HR AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD % % of total pln 2008 17.3 2009 17.9 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2.2 2012 2013 20.6 20.9 20.4 19.5 -0.9 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 874 889 865 830 -4.0 84877 83462 % of total pln 13.9 15.9 16.8 14.8 -2.0 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 449 515 541 478 -11.6 39644 40189 % of total pln 14.3 15.2 15.9 14.7 -1.2 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 609 646 676 624 -7.7 49673 48245 % of total pln 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.7 0.1 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 172 175 155 156 0.6 13552 13504 % of total pln 3.4 3.7 3.5 4.2 0.7 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 144 159 148 178 20.3 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.6 -0.6 1.8 1.8 139 147 180 151 -16.1 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.2 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 17 37 34 24 -29.4 3391 3685 SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 271 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT HR Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 2.1 3.1 8.9 5.6 18.2 2009 -6.9 -1.8 9.6 5.4 20.2 2010 -2.3 -5.1 12.3 7.0 20.5 2011 -0.2 -2.3 13.9 8.8 20.3 2012 -2.2 -3.9 16.1 10.4 20.7 2013 -0.9 -1.0 17.3 11.0 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE HR Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 18.2 6.3 3.2 4.9 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 2009 20.2 7.1 3.5 5.4 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.1 2010 20.5 7.0 3.6 5.6 2.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.1 2011 20.3 6.9 3.5 5.6 2.1 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.1 2012 20.7 7.2 3.5 5.8 2.1 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 17.0 6.3 2.9 4.9 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 18.9 7.1 3.2 5.4 2.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 19.2 7.0 3.3 5.6 2.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 18.9 6.9 3.2 5.6 2.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 19.3 7.2 3.2 5.7 2.1 0.7 0.5 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 272 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 HR Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -2.7 -0.9 2.2 -62 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17.3 17.9 31.1 20.6 4567 32.6 20.9 4454 32.6 20.4 4417 29.9 19.5 4355 9591 14.3 9353 15.2 9276 15.9 9146 14.7 -130 -1.2 13.9 15.9 16.8 14.8 -2 25.0 24.4 27.6 27.9 31.0 28.1 -2.9 3.1 31.6 4.5 29.8 4.3 31.3 5.5 14.1 31.9 5.6 8.0 33.3 5.4 6.8 34.3 5.3 8.4 1.01 -0.1 1.6 2.72 0.8 273 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 10.7 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 HR Children (0-17) HR Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate 2008 15.8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 18.7 29.4 19.6 14.8 31.1 21.1 14.4 34.8 23.3 18.1 29.3 21.8 13.7 11.5 28.1 13.8 28.0 15.7 31.4 11.4 27.2 -4.3 -4.2 2.8 -3.4 23.0 25.4 45.7 35.3 37.0 58.6 37.2 59.6 34.4 60.0 37.2 56.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 34.5 23.2 16.7 34.7 22.2 16.7 31.6 20.1 16.8 32.9 21.2 17.2 14.1 7.6 11.2 19.3 12.6 15.0 7.6 11.3 20.6 8.2 13.7 5.5 12.7 22.2 6.6 13.8 9.1 14.9 27.0 7.3 7.6 13.3 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -5.5 -1.5 6.0 -4.4 8.5 15.5 274 4.2 -8.5 Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.6 2.2 4.8 0.7 7.3 13.7 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 HR % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) HR % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate 2008 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -2.2 -0.3 5.0 -1.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 13.5 29.9 18.2 13.8 32.0 18.6 15.2 31.8 18.1 15.4 29.6 17.8 14.4 27.2 22.1 14.7 6.2 28.1 44.8 12.6 16.6 6.5 28.3 46.3 7.8 17.1 6.1 32.3 46.0 6.6 15.9 6.2 30.2 44.7 8.2 -1.2 0.1 -2.1 -1.3 1.6 3.0 37.6 35.7 32.6 33.8 35.8 34.8 -1.0 -2.8 12.8 2008 2009 31.2 31.3 0.75 0.47 0.76 0.49 2010 2011 2012 2013 37.5 30.5 15.7 0.78 0.32 23.5 36.4 29.4 16.3 0.82 0.36 22.1 33.1 25.6 15.5 0.84 0.36 21.6 31.9 23.4 16.9 0.88 0.37 20.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 275 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.2 -2.2 -7.8 1.4 0.04 0.13 0.01 -0.10 -0.8 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 HR % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.8 18.7 29.4 19.6 14.8 31.1 21.1 14.4 34.8 23.3 18.1 29.3 21.8 13.7 Change 20122013 -5.5 -1.5 -4.4 11.5 13.8 15.7 11.4 -4.3 2012 2013 6 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8 0.1 11.0 10.6 82.5 71.5 73.2 76.3 3.1 67.5 64.9 11.5 13.0 14.0 14.8 0.8 15.9 15.6 1.0 7.0 1.0 14.0 0.0 12.0 14.0 14.0 13.0 10.0 9.0 37.0 29.0 41.0 32.0 46.0 23.0 5.4 25.4 5.1 28.1 4.8 28.0 4.3 31.4 2.9 27.2 5.2 -4.2 2.3 4.2 -0.2 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 8.3 7.7 7.0 6.0 4.8 8.0 3.2 -0.3 28.4 27.6 45.7 35.3 37.0 37.2 34.4 37.2 2.81 -8.52 39.3 41.3 8.0 3.7 8.9 3.9 10.6 10.5 3.7 7.6 11.1 4.1 8.3 11.9 4.5 2.9 0.9 0.3 3.9 0.8 235 192 17.6 58.6 192 13.2 59.6 10.8 56.6 -1 -3.4 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 10.5 6.7 12.0 195 5.4 11.0 4.2 0.2 150 11.8 60.0 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 276 Change 20082013 7.6 23.5 HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS HR 2008 Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2009 73 79.7 14.5 17.9 2010 57.3 60.7 6.4 6.4 73.5 79.9 14.6 18.2 6.1 46.5 2011 59.9 61.8 7.5 7.1 73.8 80.4 15.1 18.6 5.1 45 1085.85 7.28 2012 61.9 64.2 7.7 7.9 73.9 80.6 15 18.7 3.6 47.2 1114.86 7.23 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS164 164 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 277 Unemployment definition unit source Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment benefit definition unit source link comment Unemployed persons on the CES register are entitled to unemployment benefit number of pearsons of social assistance beneficiaries, in thousands Croatian Emloyment Service www.hzz.hr Social assistance benefit/means-tested minimum income definition unit source link comment On the basis of the Social Welfare Act that entered into force on 1 January 2014 (“The Official Gazette” No. 157/13) a new right was introduced – a guaranteed minimum benefit (GMB), which encompassing the four social benefit: the maintenance assistance (from Social Welfare system) and extended financial benefit which was defined by the Act on Employment Mediation and Unemployment Rights as well as the right to survivor benefit defined under the Act on the Rights of Croatian Homeland War Veterans and Their Family Members and the Act on the Protection of Military and Civilian War-Disabled Persons. That is a new form of social benefit by which the state guarantees that every number of pearsons of social assistance beneficiaries, in thousands Ministry of Social Policy and Youth of the Republic of Croatia www.mspm.hr Guaranteed minimum benefit may be granted wholly or partially as allowance in kind, when it establishes that it is more favourable for the beneficiary or that beneficiary does not use, or it is very probable that the benefit will not be used for intended purposes. In the column for the 2014, we have shown the number of maintenance assistance and GMB beneficiaries’ since the all maintenance assistance beneficiaries have not been yet translated into GMB. Disability benefit definition unit source link comment disability pension is a pension granted on the grounds of person’s total or occupational disability if disability occurred prior to the age of 65 number of disability pension beneficiaries, in thousands Croatian Pension Insurance Institute http://www.mirovinsko.hr/ Number of disability pension beneficiaries from October 2013 does not include beneficiaries whose benefit payment have been suspended because they have not submitted their Personal Identification Number 278 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 279 ITALY NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 2,200,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 280 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 IT AROP VLWI SMD % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 18.7 18.4 18.2 19.6 19.4 19.1 -0.3 0.4 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 11149 11077 10938 11877 11810 11648 -1.4 4.5 84877 83462 % of total pln 9.8 8.8 10.2 10.4 10.3 11.0 0.7 1.2 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 4344 3922 4514 4631 4592 4908 6.9 13.0 39644 40189 % of total pln 7.5 7.0 6.9 11.2 14.5 12.4 -2.1 4.9 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 4494 4211 4173 6771 8810 7585 -13.9 68.8 49673 48245 % of total pln 2.6 2.1 2.7 2.8 2.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 1553 1284 1641 1718 1355 1561 15.2 0.5 13552 13504 % of total pln 2.7 2.7 2.3 3.6 4.7 3.8 -0.9 1.1 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 1635 1596 1369 2208 2881 2289 -20.5 40.0 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.1 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.8 752 623 836 944 1187 1283 8.1 70.6 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 197 248 187 352 408 398 -2.5 102.0 3391 3685 AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 281 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT IT Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 -1.2 0.3 6.7 3.1 26.4 2009 -5.5 -1.6 7.8 3.5 28.5 2010 1.7 -0.7 8.4 4.1 28.6 2011 0.4 0.3 8.4 4.4 28.4 2012 -2.4 -0.3 10.7 5.7 29.0 2013 -1.9 -2.0 12.2 6.9 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE IT Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 26.4 6.9 1.6 13.6 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.1 2009 28.5 7.3 1.7 14.5 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.1 2010 28.6 7.3 1.7 14.8 2.6 1.3 0.8 0.0 0.1 2011 28.4 7.0 1.6 14.9 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.1 2012 29.0 7.0 1.7 15.3 2.7 1.4 0.9 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 24.7 6.9 1.2 13.2 2.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 26.5 7.3 1.4 14.1 2.6 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 26.8 7.3 1.3 14.3 2.6 0.4 0.8 26.6 7.0 1.3 14.4 2.6 0.4 0.8 27.2 7.0 1.4 14.8 2.7 0.4 0.9 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 282 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 IT Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.5 3.1 -0.3 0.4 -140 48 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25.3 18.7 9157 24.7 18.4 9158 24.5 18.2 9123 28.2 19.6 9468 29.9 19.4 9345 28.4 19.1 9205 19231 7.5 19233 7.0 19159 6.9 19884 11.2 19625 14.5 19331 12.4 -294 -2.1 100 4.9 9.8 12.7 23.0 18.7 8.8 13.0 22.6 19.9 10.2 11.6 24.5 19.3 10.4 11.8 26.0 21.4 10.3 13.1 25.4 22.7 11.0 0.7 1.2 28.0 25.0 2.6 2.3 20.1 5.1 8.1 20.7 5.2 7.5 21.9 5.2 7.5 19.7 5.6 8.4 20.5 5.5 7.9 22.4 5.7 8.7 -1.3 -1.9 -1.4 -0.3 -4.3 -1.8 283 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 5 6.3 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 1.87 0.2 0.8 2.27 0.6 0.6 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 2.5 -0.5 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 IT Children (0-17) IT Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.9 2.8 -1.2 0.1 -3.2 4.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 29.1 24.7 9.3 28.8 24.4 8.3 28.9 24.7 8.0 32.2 26.3 12.2 33.8 26.0 16.9 31.9 24.8 13.7 6.5 24.0 5.8 23.9 7.3 29.0 7.7 30.4 6.8 29.1 7.9 33.6 1.1 4.5 22.6 34.4 23.3 34.4 24.5 35.2 20.3 36.5 21.5 38.8 26.2 39.5 4.7 0.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 30.0 21.3 10.2 29.5 21.6 9.9 30.7 23.0 8.0 34.3 24.9 12.6 36.7 25.4 16.0 36.3 25.3 15.6 10.7 8.6 6.6 20.7 8.5 9.7 13.4 7.4 22.4 8.0 10.3 13.2 7.9 24.2 7.0 11.4 14.7 8.0 25.2 9.1 12.1 12.8 10.1 27.0 8.7 11.5 13.7 10.9 29.3 9.4 284 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 1.4 9.6 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 3.6 5.1 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.4 6.3 -0.1 4.0 -0.4 5.4 -0.6 0.9 0.8 2.3 0.7 0.8 5.1 4.3 8.6 0.9 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 IT % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) IT % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.0 4.9 0.2 2.5 -1.6 5.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24.5 16.3 7.3 24.1 16.4 7.1 24.7 16.9 6.8 28.4 18.5 11.0 30.4 18.6 14.3 29.4 18.8 12.7 10.8 9.0 25.8 26.3 7.8 9.8 10.2 25.4 25.1 7.4 11.1 9.5 28.0 25.9 7.3 11.3 10.8 30.2 26.9 8.6 11.4 11.1 28.6 28.4 8.2 12.0 10.7 31.4 30.0 8.9 0.6 -0.4 2.8 1.6 0.7 22.4 23.0 23.9 21.6 22.2 23.3 1.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24.4 20.9 6.7 0.88 0.51 8.5 22.8 19.6 5.7 0.89 0.51 7.7 20.3 16.6 6.3 0.92 0.53 8.0 24.1 17.0 10.9 0.92 0.55 8.8 25.2 16.3 13.0 0.95 0.58 8.9 22.6 15.3 10.7 0.96 0.62 9.2 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 285 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 1.2 1.7 5.6 3.7 1.1 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 0.9 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -2.6 -1.8 -1.0 -5.6 -2.3 4.0 0.01 0.08 0.04 0.11 0.3 0.7 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 IT % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 29.1 24.7 9.3 28.8 24.4 8.3 28.9 24.7 8.0 32.2 26.3 12.2 33.8 26.0 16.9 31.9 24.8 13.7 Change 20122013 -1.9 -1.2 -3.2 6.5 5.8 7.3 7.7 6.8 7.9 1.1 17.7 16.4 14.9 18.0 18.8 12.5 13.6 13.2 14.6 14.4 13.2 -1.2 0.7 11.0 10.6 78.3 73.6 79.9 81.9 80.3 78.9 -1.4 0.6 67.5 64.9 20.9 21.3 20.3 21.7 22.1 20.2 -1.9 -0.7 15.9 15.6 12.0 16.0 9.0 16.0 6.0 16.0 9.0 17.0 10.0 11.0 14.0 14.0 19.0 20.0 17.0 20.0 21.0 37.0 72.0 73.0 70.0 75.0 70.0 46.0 24.0 26.1 1.6 32.4 23.9 24.0 1.4 29.6 29.0 22.3 1.4 27.7 30.4 20.1 1.2 25.2 29.1 18.5 1.1 23.7 33.6 16.7 1.1 21.8 4.5 -1.8 0 -1.9 9.6 -9.4 -0.5 -10.6 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 28.4 27.6 22.6 23.3 24.5 20.3 21.5 26.2 4.74 3.62 39.3 41.3 9.2 11.4 19.7 2.7 1896 10.3 34.4 9.1 10.9 19.2 3.5 1947 11.2 34.4 10.1 11.9 18.8 2.5 1773 10.3 35.2 10.7 11.7 18.2 2.5 1595 12.4 36.5 10.1 11.9 17.6 1.8 1532 13.2 38.8 11.1 11.4 17.0 1 -0.5 -0.6 1.9 0 -2.7 10.5 6.7 12.0 12.8 39.5 -0.4 0.7 2.5 5.1 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 286 Change 20082013 2.8 0.1 4.4 1.4 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference Gross2010 89,5 69,1 -20,4 80,2 58,8 -21,4 Low income 89,8 70,5 -19,3 80,2 58,8 -21,4 High income 86,5 55,8 -30,7 76,1 44,5 -31,6 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 83,4 84/81,4 42 years career: average income Low / high income 89,3 89,6 / 86,7 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2050 Difference 69,1/69,1 58,8/58,8 81,7/59,8 71,3/49,3 63,4 -20,0 73,8 65,2/51,2 (-18,8 / -30,2) 73,8/70,3 75,6 -13,7 76,6 / 61,6 (-13 / -25,1) 52,9 52,9/40,4 (-20,9 / -29,9) 80 80 / 76,4 -20,9 65,6 -14,4 65,6 / 49,8 (-14,4 / -26,6) 84,4 60,9 -23,5 74,9 50,3 -24,6 78,7 69,6 -9,1 68,3 59,3 -9,0 85,6 76,1 -9,5 81,5 71,8 -9,7 70,5 55,1 -15,4 60,3 44,3 -16,0 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 48,5 45,4 -3,1 44,7 37,0 -7,7 79,5 66,0 -13,6 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS IT Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 63 61.9 7.6 7.1 79.1 84.5 18.2 22 5.2 63.5 2009 63.4 62.6 8 7.2 79.4 84.6 18.3 22.1 5.3 63.8 2010 67.6 67.6 10.2 10 79.8 85 18.6 22.4 5 66.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 287 2011 63.4 62.7 8.1 7 80.1 85.3 18.8 22.6 5.9 64.7 2012 62.1 61.5 7.7 7.1 79.8 84.8 18.5 22.1 5.6 68.4 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 288 CYPRUS NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 27,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 289 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 CY AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 15.9 15.8 15.6 14.8 14.7 15.3 0.6 -0.6 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 124 126 128 124 127 132 3.9 6.5 84877 83462 % of total pln 4.5 4.0 4.9 4.9 6.5 7.9 1.4 3.4 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 29 26 33 33 45 55 22.2 89.7 39644 40189 % of total pln 9.1 9.5 11.2 11.7 15.0 16.1 1.1 7.0 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 71 76 92 98 129 139 7.8 95.8 49673 48245 % of total pln 1.2 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.4 -0.1 0.2 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 9 7 12 11 13 12 -7.7 33.3 13552 13504 % of total pln 2.5 2.3 3.4 3.2 3.8 4.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 20 18 27 27 33 34 3.0 70.0 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.8 5 6 4 4 8 17 112.5 240.0 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 4 3 3 3 7 7 0.0 75.0 3391 3685 SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 290 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT CY Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection benefits (% of GDP) 1 Social Protection Total expenditure (% of GDP) 2 2013 -5.4 -5.2 15.9 6.1 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 2008 3.6 2.0 3.7 0.5 2009 -2.0 -0.4 5.4 0.6 2010 1.4 -0.2 6.3 1.3 2011 0.3 0.5 7.9 1.6 2012 -2.4 -4.2 11.9 3.6 18.6 20.8 21.8 22.4 22.6 28.3 19.5 21.1 22.1 22.8 23.1 29.5 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Notes: 1) This indicator refers exclusively to the benefits. 2) The Social Protection Total Expenditure comprises of Social Protection Benefits, Administration costs and Other Expenditure. MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE CY Social protection benefits (in % of GDP) 1 Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing 2 Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 18.6 4.5 0.7 7.3 1.1 2.1 1.0 0.8 1.1 2009 20.8 5.1 0.8 8.1 1.2 2.2 1.0 1.1 1.4 2010 21.8 5.0 0.7 8.9 1.2 2.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 2011 22.4 5.1 0.8 9.5 1.3 2.0 1.2 1.0 1.6 2012 22.6 4.9 0.8 10.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 1.3 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.1 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 16.4 4.5 0.7 6.7 1.1 2.1 1.0 18.0 5.1 0.8 7.4 1.2 2.2 1.0 18.8 5.0 0.7 8.1 1.2 2.1 1.1 19.5 5.1 0.8 8.6 1.3 2.0 1.2 19.4 4.9 0.8 9.7 1.4 0.6 1.5 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 n.a. 0.4 n.a. 0.4 n.a. 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: 1) The table presents the social protection benefits. 2) For the case of Cyprus, as regards the function "Housing", the benefits are all means tested. 291 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 CY Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.7 4.5 0.6 -0.6 -548 -49 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 23.3 15.9 10945 23.5 15.8 11256 24.6 15.6 10816 24.6 14.8 11497 27.1 14.7 11444 27.8 15.3 10896 22984 9.1 23639 9.5 22713 11.2 24144 11.7 24033 15.0 22881 16.1 -1152 1.1 -103 7 4.5 9.9 15.3 15.9 4.0 10.1 17.2 16.3 4.9 9.2 18.0 17.4 4.9 8.6 19.0 15.3 6.5 8.3 19.0 17.6 7.9 1.4 3.4 17.7 23.3 -1.3 5.7 30.6 4.3 1.8 33.1 4.4 2.4 33.6 4.5 3.1 37.0 4.3 3.1 37.4 4.7 3.3 37.0 4.9 3.3 -0.41 0.2 0 292 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 2.4 7.4 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 6.47 0.6 1.5 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 CY Children (0-17) CY Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.2 6.2 1.6 1.5 0.6 9.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 21.5 14.0 9.7 20.2 12.3 9.3 21.8 12.6 12.5 23.4 12.8 14.8 27.5 13.9 18.1 27.7 15.5 18.7 3.4 13.6 3.1 14.6 3.6 14.8 3.2 18.1 5.0 19.3 6.4 20.6 1.4 1.3 3.0 7.0 44.0 5.1 51.4 3.5 49.6 4.5 47.1 3.9 45.5 3.7 43.6 2.9 -1.9 -0.8 -0.4 -2.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20.8 12.9 9.2 23.0 10.3 13.6 24.4 12.2 17.0 25.0 11.6 15.0 29.6 11.2 21.1 32.7 15.7 21.3 3.9 6.3 3.8 13.4 2.2 3.1 6.8 5.6 14.5 2.9 5.0 8.5 6.7 16.7 3.9 4.6 10.1 8.7 20.7 2.7 7.1 9.0 10.8 22.3 2.2 8.6 10.7 14.9 27.1 1.4 293 Change Change 201220082013 2013 3.1 11.9 4.5 2.8 0.2 12.1 1.5 1.7 4.1 4.8 -0.8 4.7 4.4 11.1 13.7 -0.8 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 CY % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) CY % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 2.4 9.3 2.2 3.6 1.2 8.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 18.9 10.8 8.6 19.9 11.2 9.5 22.1 11.9 11.5 22.1 11.5 11.6 25.8 12.2 15.5 28.2 14.4 16.7 5.0 6.3 14.0 3.1 1.8 4.4 6.8 18.6 2.6 2.6 5.3 7.4 20.1 3.6 3.4 5.5 7.3 20.4 2.9 3.3 6.9 8.0 20.5 2.8 3.6 8.4 9.0 18.3 2.5 3.3 1.5 1.0 -2.2 -0.3 -0.3 3.4 2.7 4.3 -0.6 1.5 36.5 38.1 37.4 42.5 41.9 38.2 -3.7 1.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 49.3 46.3 10.9 0.59 0.33 1.4 48.6 46.4 9.5 0.61 0.37 1.0 42.6 39.9 7.3 0.65 0.37 1.2 39.8 35.5 7.1 0.67 0.39 1.1 33.4 29.3 7.5 0.70 0.39 1.1 26.1 20.1 9.0 0.77 0.40 0.9 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 294 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -7.3 -23.2 -9.2 -26.2 1.5 -1.9 0.07 0.18 0.01 0.07 -0.2 -0.5 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 CY % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 21.5 14.0 9.7 20.2 12.3 9.3 21.8 12.6 12.5 23.4 12.8 14.8 27.5 13.9 18.1 27.7 15.5 18.7 Change 20122013 0.2 1.6 0.6 3.4 3.1 3.6 3.2 5.0 6.4 1.4 5.5 6.5 3.8 5.5 4.1 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.8 8.0 1.2 2 11.0 10.6 57.2 63.3 67.1 61.6 55.7 69.0 13.3 11.8 67.5 64.9 12.5 10.6 10.6 11.2 11.6 11.8 0.2 -0.7 15.9 15.6 8.0 18.0 8.0 14.0 11.0 13.0 7.0 16.0 7.0 19.0 14.0 14.0 34.0 40.0 35.0 35.0 32.0 37.0 44.0 41.0 46.0 38.0 42.0 46.0 13.6 12.2 14.6 13.4 14.8 14.4 18.1 9.3 19.3 12.3 20.6 10.2 1.3 -2.1 7 -2 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 18.2 19.8 23.0 15.3 19.9 16.4 -3.5 -1.8 28.4 27.6 44.0 51.4 49.6 47.1 45.5 43.6 -1.85 -0.36 39.3 41.3 1.5 5.6 13.7 0.7 32 2.0 5.1 2.4 5.1 11.7 1.0 32 1.7 3.5 2.8 6.8 12.7 1.8 31 2.1 4.5 2.9 7.1 11.3 1.2 30 2.4 3.9 3.1 8.7 11.4 1.8 36 1.9 3.7 4.5 7.4 9.1 1.3 1.4 -1.3 -2.3 -0.5 3 1.8 -4.6 0.6 10.5 6.7 12.0 1.6 2.9 -0.3 -0.8 -0.4 -2.2 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 295 Change 20082013 6.2 1.5 9 3 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 57 70 13 Low income 60 66 6 High income 48 55 7 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 50 60 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 56 59 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 38 44 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 70 / 70 60 / 60 70 / 70 60 / 60 10 3 6 57 67 10 50 57 7 60 / 48 64 / 53 (4 / 5) 56 / 38 58 / 42 (2 / 4) 56 72 16 49 61 12 60 / 51 68 / 58 (8 / 7) 56 / 41 61 / 47 (5 / 6) 56 68 12 50 54 4 53 64 11 49 56 7 53 66 13 46 56 10 42 54 12 37 46 9 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 43,3 45,2 1,9 44,7 37,0 -7,7 45,3 52,3 7,0 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS CY Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 64.5 65.4 9.4 7.8 78.5 83.1 17.9 20.4 2.8 76.5 1401.57 5.9 2009 64.9 65.6 10.1 8.5 78.6 83.6 18.1 20.9 3.4 75.6 2010 65.1 64.2 10.2 8.1 79.2 83.9 18.3 21 3.9 74.3 2011 61.6 61 8 5.9 79.3 83.1 18.2 20.3 4.4 75.6 2012 63.4 64 8.8 7.7 78.9 83.4 17.9 20.4 3.5 77.1 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.6 EU28 2013 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 4.4 3.4 3.4 76.4 67.9 68.2 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) and Statistical Service of Cyprus (Health and Hospital Statistics 2012) 296 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS165 CY definition unit source Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment benefit (1) definition unit source comment Number of applicants for unemployment benefit thousands of applicants Social Insurance Services, Ministry of Labour and Social Insurance, Cyprus CY UB applicants refer to the number of applicants for unemployment benefit from Social Insurance Services. Some of those applicants can be rejected due to the qualifying contribution conditions of the unemployment benefit. The unsmoothness of the number of applicants is due to the seasonality effect of the hospitality industry. 165 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 297 Unemployment benefit (2) definition unit source comment Number of beneficiaries for unemployment benefit thousands of applicants Social Insurance Services, Ministry of Labour and Social Insurance, Cyprus CY UB beneficiaries refer to the number of beneficiaries for unemployment benefit from Social Insurance Services at the corresponding period. The unsmoothness of the number of beneficiaries is due to the seasonality effect of the hospitality industry. Social assistance benefit definition unit source comment Number of public assistance beneficiaries thousands of beneficiaries Social Welfare Services, Ministry of Labour and Social Insurance, Cyprus The decrease shown in the number of public assistance beneficiaries in June 2012 is due to a change of the relevant legislation. More specifically, until May 2012 financial assistance to lone parents was provided in the context of the Public Assistance Legislation and from June 2012 a single parent benefit has been introduced in the Child Benefit Law. In addition, the cases of public assistance with the nature of distress “unemployment” have been increased over the last years from 2.628 in October 2013 to 3570 in October2014. As of July 2014, a new Law on the Guaranteed Minimum was put in place which will replace the Public Assistance Law. 298 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 299 LATVIA NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty after social transfers and/or living in households with very low work intensity by 121,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 300 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 LV % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 25.9 26.4 20.9 19.0 19.2 19.4 0.2 -6.5 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 559 563 437 388 388 387 -0.3 -30.8 84877 83462 % of total pln 5.4 7.4 12.6 12.6 11.7 10.0 -1.7 4.6 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 91 122 200 195 178 149 -16.3 63.7 39644 40189 % of total pln 19.3 22.1 27.6 31.0 25.6 24.0 -1.6 4.7 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 416 472 578 634 518 480 -7.3 15.4 49673 48245 % of total pln 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.8 -0.2 0.5 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 29 39 41 36 40 35 -12.5 20.7 13552 13504 % of total pln 9.3 8.3 7.2 7.1 6.1 6.3 0.2 -3.0 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 201 178 150 145 123 126 2.4 -37.3 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 2.2 2.9 4.9 4.6 4.2 3.3 -0.9 1.1 1.8 1.8 47 62 102 94 84 66 -21.4 40.4 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 3 6 23 28 21 20 -4.8 566.7 3391 3685 AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 301 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT LV Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 2009 -2.8 -17.7 -0.8 -14.3 7.7 17.5 1.9 4.5 12.5 16.7 2010 -1.3 -6.7 19.5 8.8 17.6 2011 5.3 1.5 16.2 8.8 14.8 2012 5.2 1.4 15.0 7.8 13.8 2013 4.1 2.3 11.9 5.8 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE LV Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 12.5 3.7 0.9 5.4 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 2009 16.7 3.9 1.3 7.6 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.1 0.1 2010 17.6 3.7 1.3 9.1 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.2 2011 14.8 3.2 1.3 7.9 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.3 2012 13.8 3.0 1.2 7.5 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 12.2 3.7 0.9 5.4 0.2 1.4 0.5 16.4 3.9 1.3 7.6 0.3 1.7 1.5 16.9 3.5 1.3 9.1 0.3 1.5 1.1 14.2 3.0 1.3 7.9 0.3 1.1 0.6 13.4 3.0 1.2 7.5 0.2 1.0 0.4 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 302 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 LV Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.1 0.9 0.2 -6.5 257 -317 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 34.2 25.9 4288 37.9 26.4 4283 38.2 20.9 3512 40.1 19.0 3537 36.2 19.2 3714 35.1 19.4 3971 9004 19.3 8995 22.1 7376 27.6 7428 31.0 7800 25.6 8339 24.0 539 -1.6 -665 4.7 5.4 12.6 28.6 25.9 7.4 17.1 29.0 27.2 12.6 11.0 28.9 32.8 12.6 9.3 31.7 35.2 11.7 12.6 28.6 35.0 10.0 -1.7 4.6 27.5 33.0 -1.1 -2 14.2 7.3 8.7 14.8 7.4 9.3 26.7 6.8 9.8 29.1 6.5 12.5 25.3 6.5 11.2 25.4 6.3 11.4 2.4 -15.4 -5.3 -4.3 1.8 9.4 303 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 -1.1 7.1 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 0.1 -0.2 0.2 11.15 -1 2.7 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 7.6 7.0 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 LV Children (0-17) LV Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.6 6.0 -1.0 -0.2 -1.9 6.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 32.4 23.6 19.2 38.4 26.3 24.6 42.2 26.3 30.7 44.1 24.7 32.4 40.0 24.4 27.3 38.4 23.4 25.4 4.6 30.7 6.9 34.2 12.4 31.3 12.6 33.2 10.4 31.0 9.2 29.9 -1.2 -1.1 4.6 -0.8 22.9 69.6 22.0 71.7 28.5 71.1 32.3 59.6 28.5 53.1 28.2 53.4 -0.2 0.3 5.3 -16.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25.2 16.2 15.7 31.8 19.4 20.8 38.7 21.0 28.0 43.7 22.3 35.4 37.4 20.1 27.1 36.5 19.8 23.9 2.8 8.2 5.8 14.4 4.5 4.9 9.6 13.7 22.3 5.2 10.4 8.0 14.4 22.6 8.0 9.9 8.3 11.6 19.8 11.7 9.7 5.6 11.5 17.4 9.8 7.7 9.6 9.1 16.2 8.7 304 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.9 11.3 -0.3 3.6 -3.2 8.2 -2.0 4.0 -2.4 -1.2 -1.1 4.9 1.4 3.3 1.8 4.2 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 LV % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) LV % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.9 6.0 -0.5 -0.6 -2.1 6.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 28.0 19.4 16.7 32.8 20.5 20.5 37.4 20.4 26.8 41.1 20.2 31.2 35.9 19.3 25.0 34.0 18.8 22.9 5.7 10.7 29.5 58.6 7.1 7.6 11.2 33.5 57.0 7.8 12.6 9.7 31.9 56.4 10.1 12.6 9.6 33.0 44.2 13.1 12.1 8.9 32.1 36.7 11.3 10.2 9.1 32.0 38.1 10.9 -1.9 0.2 -0.1 1.4 -0.4 4.5 -1.6 2.5 -20.5 3.8 17.5 18.0 27.1 28.9 25.2 25.4 0.2 8.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 58.8 52.0 28.7 0.53 0.30 40.1 55.5 47.6 25.3 0.57 0.34 37.9 36.8 17.2 27.5 0.78 0.47 37.8 33.0 9.1 28.9 0.86 0.53 26.5 33.7 13.9 26.4 0.80 0.49 20.4 36.1 17.6 26.6 0.77 0.47 22.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 305 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2.4 -22.7 3.7 -34.4 0.2 -2.1 -0.03 0.24 -0.02 0.17 1.7 -18.0 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 LV % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 32.4 23.6 19.2 38.4 26.3 24.6 42.2 26.3 30.7 44.1 24.7 32.4 40.0 24.4 27.3 38.4 23.4 25.4 Change 20122013 -1.6 -1 -1.9 4.6 6.9 12.4 12.6 10.4 9.2 -1.2 12.1 17.5 13.0 12.7 16.8 11.8 12.7 11.4 10.8 10.2 10.8 0.6 -1 11.0 10.6 84.4 89.0 79.6 73.0 76.6 68.4 -8.2 -16 67.5 64.9 20.1 21.3 18.5 17.4 18.3 18.5 0.2 -1.6 15.9 15.6 2.0 12.0 2.0 13.0 1.0 15.0 1.0 14.0 4.0 19.0 14.0 14.0 3.0 7.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 37.0 67.0 67.0 59.0 66.0 72.0 46.0 30.7 6.4 34.2 4.8 31.3 3.0 33.2 3.8 31.0 2.8 29.9 3.2 -1.1 0.4 -0.8 -3.2 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 10.0 7.9 4.9 6.1 3.7 4.9 1.2 -5.1 28.4 27.6 22.9 22.0 28.5 32.3 28.5 28.2 -0.23 5.34 39.3 41.3 7.1 7.6 15.5 3.0 161 29.3 69.6 7.9 9.0 14.3 2.5 168 30.5 71.7 8.9 8.2 12.9 5.8 110 28.9 71.1 12.2 8.9 11.6 4.7 124 24.7 59.6 10.7 8.7 10.6 3.0 125 25.0 53.1 10.3 5.6 9.8 -0.4 -3.1 -0.8 3.2 -2 -5.7 10.5 6.7 12.0 23.9 53.4 -1.1 0.3 -5.4 -16.2 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 306 Change 20082013 6 -0.2 6.2 4.6 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 80,4 55,3 -25,1 Low income 86,8 58,5 -28,3 High income 57 39,8 -17,2 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 65,9 65,6 / 46,7 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 63,9 43,6 (100/0/0)* (61/39/0)* 63,9 43,6 (100/0/0)* (61/39/0)* 47,5 32,8 (100/0/0)* (61/39/0)* 52,8 / 58,3 41,2 / 46,5 59,5 / 52,2 47,7 / 40,5 50,2 -15,7 48,2 51,7 / 35,9 (-13,9/-10,8) 48,2 / 36,2 -20,3 -20,3 -14,7 38,6 -9,6 38,6 / 29 (-9,6/-7,2) 77,6 61,2 -16,4 58,3 49,4 -8,9 82 / 54,9 65 / 44,3 (-17/-10,6) 58,3 / 43 49,4 / 37,1 (-8,9/-5,9) 68,8 47,5 -21,3 51,1 35,9 -15,2 56,8 44,8 -12,0 40,3 33,2 -7,1 59,4 44,9 -14,5 42,3 33,4 -8,9 63,5 43,7 -19,8 47,5 32,2 -15,3 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 : : : 44,7 37,0 -7,7 48,2 15,8 -32,4 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS LV Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 51.8 54.6 4.9 5 67 77.8 13 17.9 9.7 44.5 930.6 6.6 2009 52.8 56.2 4.8 5.7 68.1 78 13.4 18.2 9.6 47.5 823.9 6.8 2010 53.5 56.7 4.9 5.6 68.6 78.4 13.3 18.2 14.8 49.1 2011 53.7 56.6 4.8 5 68.6 78.8 13.4 18.7 16.1 46.8 2012 54.6 59 5.3 6.4 68.9 78.9 13.6 18.5 12.3 46.6 6.5 6.1 5,9* EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) and PVO vēl nav publicējis datus. Note: * provisional figure 307 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS166 LV definition unit source definition unit source definition unit source definition unit source Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted eurostat Unemployment benefit persons receiving unemployment benefit thousands of recipients State Social Insurance Agency Social assistance benefit persons in household receiving municipal GMI benefit thousands of recipients annual statistical reports from local municipalities Disability benefit persons receiving disability pension thousands of pensioners State Social Insurance Agency 166 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 308 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 309 LITHUANIA NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion to 814,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey (while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 310 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 LT % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 20.0 20.3 20.5 19.2 18.6 20.6 2.0 0.6 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 671 647 645 586 559 611 9.3 -8.9 84877 83462 % of total pln 5.1 7.2 9.5 12.7 11.4 11.0 -0.4 5.9 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 135 178 229 296 259 246 -5.0 82.2 39644 40189 % of total pln 12.3 15.6 19.9 19.0 19.8 16.0 -3.8 3.7 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 414 497 624 580 596 476 -20.1 15.0 49673 48245 % of total pln 1.4 1.8 2.2 3.1 2.1 2.8 0.7 1.4 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 47 56 68 94 63 84 33.3 78.7 13552 13504 % of total pln 4.6 5.0 5.2 4.0 4.1 5.2 1.1 0.6 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 154 159 164 122 124 153 23.4 -0.6 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.3 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.5 2.6 -0.9 1.3 1.8 1.8 42 71 81 99 106 78 -26.4 85.7 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.8 -0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 6 21 37 39 40 23 -42.5 283.3 3391 3685 AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 311 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT LT Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure on benefits (% of GDP) 2008 2009 2.9 -14.8 -1.7 -7.7 5.8 13.8 1.3 3.3 2010 1.6 -5.3 17.8 7.4 2011 6.0 0.5 15.4 8.0 2012 3.7 1.8 13.4 6.6 15.6 18.3 16.3 15.7 20.6 2013 3.3 1.3 11.8 5.1 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS); MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE LT Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 15.6 4.6 1.6 6.4 0.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.2 2009 20.6 5.5 2.1 8.3 0.7 2.8 0.9 0.0 0.4 2010 18.3 4.8 1.8 7.4 0.6 2.2 0.8 0.0 0.7 2011 16.3 4.5 1.6 6.7 0.5 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.8 2012 15.7 4.3 1.5 6.9 0.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 15.3 4.6 1.6 6.4 0.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 20.1 5.5 2.1 8.3 0.7 2.7 0.9 17.4 4.8 1.8 7.4 0.6 1.9 0.8 15.4 4.5 1.6 6.7 0.5 1.5 0.6 14.8 4.3 1.5 6.8 0.5 1.2 0.4 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 312 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 LT Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.7 3.2 2 0.6 377 241 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 27.6 20.0 4170 29.6 20.3 4289 34.0 20.5 3611 33.1 19.2 3641 32.5 18.6 4034 30.8 20.6 4411 8756 12.3 9008 15.6 7583 19.9 7645 19.0 8472 19.8 9264 16.0 792 -3.8 508 3.7 5.1 10.9 25.7 20.0 7.2 11.7 23.8 19.2 9.5 7.6 32.6 28.8 12.7 7.5 29.0 32.2 11.4 12.3 22.6 27.4 11.0 -0.4 5.9 24.8 25.7 2.2 -1.7 26.5 5.9 4.8 29.0 6.4 5.6 34.5 7.3 10.6 36.4 5.8 11.1 34.5 5.3 8.9 32.0 6.1 8.2 7.6 -12.2 -0.3 1.0 1.2 4.8 313 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 -0.9 5.7 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 -2.5 0.8 -0.7 5.54 0.2 3.4 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 3.6 -2.8 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 LT Children (0-17) LT Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 3.5 6.0 6.1 4.1 1.6 6.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 29.4 22.8 12.3 30.8 23.3 15.8 35.8 24.8 20.0 34.6 25.2 16.7 31.9 20.8 16.9 35.4 26.9 18.5 3.6 28.1 5.4 27.8 5.7 36.6 11.7 29.0 9.3 24.3 9.8 25.8 0.5 1.5 6.2 -2.3 29.9 64.3 36.3 65.2 43.1 61.9 37.3 31.7 41.1 30.4 33.9 43.2 -7.2 12.8 4.1 -21.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 28.5 17.8 13.5 28.9 18.4 14.2 36.3 23.5 20.1 38.0 24.4 19.5 35.9 20.2 23.1 30.4 19.2 13.3 3.0 6.4 4.0 12.4 5.2 6.3 5.4 8.7 16.7 5.9 8.8 11.8 10.2 18.1 9.1 12.2 6.1 9.2 16.1 9.8 10.8 5.8 7.8 14.9 9.7 10.3 7.0 6.9 15.2 7.9 314 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -5.5 1.9 -1.0 1.4 -9.8 -0.2 -0.5 1.2 -0.9 0.3 -1.8 7.3 0.6 2.9 2.8 2.7 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 LT % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) LT % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -2.4 4.8 1.1 2.2 -4.9 3.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24.5 16.8 11.3 27.7 18.4 14.7 34.6 22.2 18.7 33.3 20.2 18.0 31.7 17.9 19.5 29.3 19.0 14.6 5.6 9.5 30.6 50.8 4.8 7.8 10.5 28.7 48.8 6.0 10.6 12.7 33.9 46.5 11.2 13.1 9.6 30.7 19.6 11.5 12.0 7.7 26.6 19.6 8.6 11.4 9.2 27.5 28.0 7.6 -0.6 1.5 0.9 8.4 -1.0 5.8 -0.3 -3.1 -22.8 2.8 30.9 30.8 32.3 37.3 36.3 35.4 -0.9 4.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 38.1 29.5 16.5 0.71 0.44 27.5 35.3 23.9 18.8 0.73 0.48 26.1 29.8 9.6 24.0 0.93 0.58 24.0 30.9 9.7 25.1 0.90 0.52 6.2 35.7 18.7 24.1 0.78 0.45 5.5 31.7 19.4 18.4 0.81 0.48 12.6 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 315 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -4.0 -6.4 0.7 -10.1 -5.7 1.9 0.03 0.10 0.03 0.04 7.1 -14.9 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 LT % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 29.4 22.8 12.3 30.8 23.3 15.8 35.8 24.8 20.0 34.6 25.2 16.7 31.9 20.8 16.9 35.4 26.9 18.5 Change 20122013 3.5 6.1 1.6 3.6 5.4 5.7 11.7 9.3 9.8 0.5 12.0 14.3 7.7 10.9 15.7 12.2 12.6 14.5 11.6 9.8 11.9 2.1 -0.3 11.0 10.6 69.1 75.8 70.6 73.9 72.2 77.3 5.1 8.2 67.5 64.9 20.9 20.1 21.9 18.5 15.5 21.2 5.7 0.3 15.9 15.6 1.0 8.0 1.0 9.0 2.0 11.0 1.0 6.0 3.0 5.0 14.0 14.0 7.0 4.0 9.0 9.0 6.0 37.0 55.0 51.0 58.0 56.0 68.0 46.0 28.1 27.8 5.0 36.6 29.0 24.3 6.2 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 25.8 1.5 -2.3 7.9 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 28.4 27.6 29.9 36.3 43.1 37.3 41.1 33.9 -7.17 4.06 39.3 41.3 5.5 2.9 7.5 1.1 172 27.0 64.3 5.3 4.2 8.7 2.0 181 22.0 65.2 13.3 4.1 7.9 0.3 153 17.8 61.9 10.6 3.6 7.4 1.4 144 12.6 31.7 7.3 3.4 6.5 0.4 118 11.8 30.4 8.8 3.1 6.3 0.6 110 15.2 43.2 1.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 -8 3.4 12.8 3.3 0.2 -1.2 -0.5 -62 -11.8 -21.1 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 10.5 6.7 12.0 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 316 Change 20082013 6 4.1 6.2 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 61,5 60,3 -1,2 Low income 78,9 74,7 -4,2 High income 39,2 38,1 -1,1 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2050 Difference 47,7 (96/4/0)* 63,1 (97/3/0)* 29,8 (94/6/0)* 47,1 (87/13/0)* 60,2 (90/10/0)* 29,1 (84/16/0)* 59 / 62 46,3 / 48,2 62,2 / 58,9 48,6 / 46 54,4 52,3 67,6 / 36,9 64,7 / 33 76,8 72,5 95,7 / 51,1 Gross2010 -2,1 40,7 40,8 (-2,9 / -3,9) 52,3 / 26,8 -4,3 -2,9 -0,7 0,1 52,1 / 25,2 (-0,2 / -1,6) 59,7 56,7 89,9 / 45,8 (-5,8 / -5,3) 76,8 / 38,8 -0,6 -3,0 72,5 / 34,9 (-4,3 / -3,9) 67,6 58,6 -9,0 52,6 45,7 -6,9 49,8 58,6 8,8 36,3 45,8 9,5 51,1 56,1 5,0 38,2 43,8 5,6 48 46,2 -1,8 37,3 36,1 -1,2 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 38,7 34,9 -3,7 44,7 37,0 -7,7 38,2 35,7 -2,5 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS LT Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 54.8 59.9 5.8 6.5 66.3 77.6 13.4 18.1 5.5 48.3 1107.53 6.61 2009 57.2 61.2 6.1 6.8 67.5 78.7 13.4 18.4 3.1 49.6 1041.01 7.53 2010 57.8 62.4 6.3 6.7 68 78.9 13.5 18.4 2.5 51.9 1074.88 7.09 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 317 2011 57 62 6.2 6.7 68.1 79.3 14 19.2 2.8 43.9 1163.95 6.85 2012 56.6 61.6 5.6 6.1 68.4 79.6 14.1 19.2 2.3 44.3 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS167 LT definition unit source link definition unit source comment Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted eurostat http://nui.epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=lmhu_m&lang=en Unemployment benefit Unemployment benefit recipients thousands of recipients National Labour Exchange. The unemployed have possibility to receive unemployment benefit if he has a minimum period of insurance: 18 months within 3 years preceding unemployment. (there are exceptions for certain groups of unemployed people who contributed but have not acquired the necessary social insurance record due to important reasons). The duration of payment of Unemployment Insurance Benefit depends on the length of the insurance record: Service years Duration less than 25 years 6 months ; 25 - 30 years -7 months, 30 - 35 years- 8 months; 35 years and over-9 months. The duration of payment is prolonged for additional 2 months for elderly persons within 5 years till pension age. Since 1 January 2013 unemployment benefits are paying from the State Social Insurance Fund (‘’Sodra”). The statistical data of on the website at www.sodra.lt or on the special website at http://atvira.sodra.lt 167 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 318 definition unit source comment Social assistance benefit number of recipients of social benefit thousands of recipients Ministry of Social Security and Labour, The Social Assistance Information System. Families and single residents are entitled to Social Benefit if either single resident or one spouse works or does not work because they are full-time students or pensioners, or individuals above retirement age, or disabled, or nursing a disabled or sick family member, or registered at the local office as unemployed and receiving Unemployment Benefit or are long-term unemployed (more than 6 months), or taking care of a child under the age of 3 years or under the age of 8 years, or family is raising three or more children, etc. Disability benefit definition unit definition unit comment All disability pensions thousands of pensioners Early Retirement The number of recipients of early retirement pensions, thousand thousands of pensioners Persons are eligible for early retire-ment pension if: they acquired an insurance period of 30 years, they are registered as unemployed for at least 12 months, the age is less than 5 years to retirement age, have no other incomes, do not receive any other pension or benefit. Since 2012, the requirement for pre-retirement age persons to be registered in the Labour Exchange has been cancelled. 319 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 320 LUXEMBOURG NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 6,000. Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 321 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 LU AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 13.4 14.9 14.5 13.6 15.1 15.9 0.8 2.5 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 62 71 71 68 78 80 2.6 29.0 84877 83462 % of total pln* 4.7 6.3 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.6 0.5 1.9 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 18 24 22 24 26 27 3.8 50.0 39644 40189 % of total pln 0.7 1.1 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.8 0.5 1.1 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 3 5 3 6 7 9 28.6 200.0 49673 48245 % of total pln 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.5 0.5 0.9 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 8 10 10 9 10 12 20.0 50.0 13552 13504 % of total pln 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.4 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 1 2 1 3 3 4 33.3 300.0 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.8 1.8 1 2 1 1 1 2 100.0 100.0 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 0 0 0 0 0 1 3391 3685 AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). ii) In Luxembourg, the poverty risk rate has increased from 13.6% in 2011 to 15.1% in 2012 and to 15.9% in 2013. The rate therefore exceeds the level recorded in 2009 (14.9%). This statistic is an indicator of income inequality rather than actual poverty or precariousness. Income inequality has increased as a result of the evolution of specific income components. The weight of capital income (rents and income from financial investments etc.) is much higher at the top than at the bottom of the income distribution (9.8% in the 10th decile vs. 1.3% in the 1st decile). Capital income has increased much more sharply between 2012 and 2013 (+11.9%) than the other componenents of income, such as income from work and social benefits, which have a higher weight in lower incomes.. * this is a percentage of a part of the population, not of the whole population. 322 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT LU Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 -0.7 5.0 4.9 1.6 21.0 2009 -5.6 0.9 5.1 1.2 23.9 2010 3.1 1.8 4.6 1.3 22.6 2011 1.9 2.9 4.8 1.4 22.2 2012 -0.2 2.5 5.1 1.6 23.0 2013 2.1 1.7 5.9 1.8 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE LU Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 21.0 5.3 2.4 5.6 1.9 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.4 2009 23.9 6.1 2.7 6.5 2.1 4.3 1.3 0.4 0.5 2010 22.6 5.8 2.6 6.2 2.0 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.5 2011 22.2 5.6 2.6 6.3 2.0 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.5 2012 23.0 5.8 2.6 6.7 2.0 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 20.4 5.3 2.4 5.6 1.9 4.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 23.0 6.1 2.7 6.5 2.1 4.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 21.8 5.8 2.6 6.2 2.0 4.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 21.3 5.6 2.6 6.3 2.0 3.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 22.1 5.8 2.6 6.7 2.0 3.7 1.3 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 323 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 LU Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.6 3.5 0.8 2.5 412 194 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.5 13.4 16166 17.8 14.9 16265 17.1 14.5 15961 16.8 13.6 15961 18.4 15.1 15948 19.0 15.9 16360 33948 0.7 34157 1.1 33519 0.5 33517 1.2 33490 1.3 34355 1.8 865 0.5 407 1.1 4.7 8.4 16.6 13.4 6.3 8.8 17.6 15.5 5.5 6.0 18.6 14.4 5.8 6.5 15.7 14.6 6.1 7.1 15.0 17.5 6.6 0.5 1.9 17.5 19.3 2.5 1.8 43.2 4.1 3.7 44.8 4.3 3.7 50.2 4.1 4.7 50.0 4.0 4.2 47.9 4.1 4.9 45.9 4.6 5.6 -2.01 0.5 0.7 324 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 0.9 5.9 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 2.7 0.5 1.9 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 LU Children (0-17) LU Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.4 5.1 1.3 4.1 0.7 1.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20.9 19.8 0.9 23.7 22.3 1.2 22.3 21.4 0.2 21.7 20.3 1.2 24.6 22.6 1.7 26.0 23.9 2.4 3.2 16.6 4.1 19.6 3.2 18.6 2.9 18.5 4.0 14.9 4.5 18.0 0.5 3.1 1.3 1.4 41.3 10.3 43.7 9.4 50.4 10.7 50.0 9.5 50.7 9.2 46.3 8.1 -4.4 -1.1 5.0 -2.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17.4 15.5 0.5 27.3 21.2 1.9 19.1 16.5 0.9 20.8 17.1 2.4 21.9 18.7 1.4 22.3 19.6 1.3 3.9 10.9 5.2 8.6 3.8 10.6 13.3 5.5 7.5 4.8 5.3 9.1 3.5 6.9 5.2 5.0 11.8 4.2 6.5 5.0 4.6 10.2 5.0 7.8 4.1 6.5 11.9 4.0 6.7 5.7 325 Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.4 4.9 0.9 4.1 -0.1 0.8 1.9 1.7 -1.0 -1.1 1.6 2.6 1.0 -1.2 -1.9 1.9 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 LU % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) LU % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.2 3.2 0.5 2.1 0.3 1.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.8 12.9 0.7 18.2 14.2 1.3 17.5 13.9 0.7 17.6 13.1 1.4 18.8 14.5 1.4 19.0 15.0 1.7 5.2 9.4 16.7 8.3 4.3 7.1 10.1 17.6 6.3 4.1 6.4 10.6 18.7 7.8 5.3 6.9 9.8 15.7 6.8 4.7 6.8 10.3 15.7 7.3 5.5 7.4 11.2 17.5 6.4 6.0 0.6 0.9 1.8 -0.9 0.5 2.2 1.8 0.8 -1.9 1.7 44.9 46.2 50.5 50.8 47.3 46.8 -0.5 1.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5.4 5.4 0.0 0.97 0.58 2.9 6.2 6.0 0.2 1.01 0.62 2.2 6.1 5.9 0.1 1.05 0.68 2.9 4.7 4.7 0.0 1.05 0.74 1.8 6.1 6.1 0.0 1.10 0.79 1.7 7.0 6.2 0.9 1.13 0.78 1.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) Note: ratio indicators are not expressed in %; all changes are in percentage points' difference with the 326 Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.9 1.6 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.03 0.16 -0.01 0.20 0.1 -1.1 exception of 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 the poverty threshold, S80/S20 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 LU % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20.9 19.8 0.9 23.7 22.3 1.2 22.3 21.4 0.2 21.7 20.3 1.2 24.6 22.6 1.7 26.0 23.9 2.4 Change 20122013 1.4 1.3 0.7 3.2 4.1 3.2 2.9 4.0 4.5 0.5 14.3 14.6 10.3 11.1 10.2 12.2 13.5 14.5 12.5 13.5 14.3 0.8 2.1 11.0 10.6 68.8 69.2 73.4 64.9 66.9 71.3 4.4 2.5 67.5 64.9 18.2 20.3 19.7 19.0 20.8 21.6 0.8 3.4 15.9 15.6 13.0 13.0 22.0 12.0 17.0 19.0 16.0 28.0 21.0 27.0 14.0 14.0 54.0 46.0 42.0 46.0 45.0 37.0 23.0 26.0 37.0 27.0 35.0 46.0 16.6 24.6 19.6 28.4 14.9 21.7 10.2 23.6 3.1 0.4 1.4 -2.5 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 31.8 18.5 26.5 10.0 28.9 18.0 22.1 26.4 18.6 31.5 6.3 34.6 25.1 1.5 -1.3 28.4 27.6 41.3 43.7 50.4 50.0 50.7 46.3 -4.37 5.04 39.3 41.3 3.6 2.6 13.4 1.0 10 2.8 10.3 4.1 3.5 7.7 0.3 14 2.2 9.4 4.1 3.2 7.1 0.3 20 3.1 10.7 3.7 1.7 6.2 0.0 24 2.9 9.5 5.1 2.9 8.1 0.2 15 3.5 9.2 6.0 2.7 6.1 0.9 -0.2 -2 2.4 0.1 -7.3 10.5 6.7 12.0 2.6 8.1 -0.9 -1.1 -0.2 -2.2 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 327 Change 20082013 5.1 4.1 1.5 1.3 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 99,9 83,0 -16,9 Low income 105,6 86,4 -19,2 High income 77,7 64,9 -12,8 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 95,4 Gross2010 91,2 71,7 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 97,6 76,9 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 65,5 51,4 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 83,0/83,0 71,7/71,7 83,0/83,0 71,7/71,7 78,9 -16,5 85,7 67,4 100,6 / 73,9 82,2 / 61,9 (-18,4 / -12) 92,0 / 61,3 42 years career: average income Low / high income 99,9 105,6/77,7 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2050 Difference 83,0 -16,9 -20,7 -14,1 -18,3 72,5 / 48,2 (-19,5 / -13,1) 91,2 71,7 86,4 / 64,9 (-19,2 / -12,8) 97,6 / 65,6 -19,5 -19,5 76,9 / 51,4 (-20,7 / -14,2) 99,9 78,3 -21,6 91,2 66,6 -24,6 99,9 83,0 -16,9 91,2 71,7 -19,5 97 80,4 -16,6 87,7 68,9 -18,8 86,9 71,5 -15,4 76,0 59,7 -16,3 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 58,7 53,7 -5,0 44,7 37,0 -7,7 78,3 63,2 -15,1 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS LU Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 64.8 64.4 10.7 11.6 78.1 83.1 17.4 21 0.6 74 4541.80 7.34 2009 65.1 65.9 10.8 11.5 78.1 83.3 17.6 21.4 0.6 74 4657.2 8.07 2010 64.4 66.4 10.5 12.4 77.9 83.5 17.3 21.6 0.6 75.2 4651.7 7.64 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 328 2011 65.8 67.1 11.5 11.8 78.5 83.6 17.8 21.6 0.6 72.5 4660.9 7.34 2012 65.8 66.4 11.6 11.9 79.1 83.8 18.4 21.4 0.7 73.8 4577.9 7.13 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.1 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.3 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS168 (Thousands) LU definition unit source definition unit source definition unit source definition unit source Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Social assistance benefit/means-tested minimum income Total of beneficiary households of the guaranteed minimum revenu (complementary allocation) thousands of beneficiaries IGSS Disability benefit Total of disability pensions of the general pension scheme (permanent, transitory and "indemnité d'attente") thousands of beneficiaries IGSS Early retirement Early retirement beneficiaries thousands of beneficiaries IGSS 168 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 329 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 330 HUNGARY NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 450,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 331 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 HU % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 12.4 12.4 12.3 13.8 14.0 14.3 0.3 1.9 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 1226 1229 1211 1363 1379 1399 1.5 14.1 84877 83462 % of total pln 12.0 11.3 11.9 12.2 12.8 12.6 -0.2 0.6 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 943 870 909 925 964 939 -2.6 -0.4 39644 40189 % of total pln 17.9 20.3 21.6 23.1 25.7 26.8 1.1 8.9 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 1771 2009 2129 2278 2527 2623 3.8 48.1 49673 48245 % of total pln 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.0 -0.9 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 195 152 149 125 113 110 -2.7 -43.6 13552 13504 % of total pln 2.8 3.4 3.3 4.6 4.6 5.3 0.7 2.5 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 276 341 321 450 457 521 14.0 88.8 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 2.7 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.9 4.5 -0.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 263 273 331 396 481 443 -7.9 68.4 9240 9250 % of total pln 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 149 145 169 148 151 159 5.3 6.7 3391 3685 AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 332 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT HU Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 0.9 -1.8 7.8 3.6 22.5 2009 -6.8 -2.5 10.0 4.2 23.0 2010 1.1 0.8 11.2 5.5 22.6 2011 1.6 0.3 10.9 5.2 21.9 2012 -1.7 0.0 10.9 4.9 21.6 2013 1.1 0.4 10.2 5.0 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE HU Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 22.5 5.7 2.1 8.8 1.3 2.8 0.8 0.7 0.1 2009 23.0 5.8 2.1 9.1 1.4 3.0 1.0 0.7 0.1 2010 22.6 5.8 1.9 9.1 1.3 2.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 2011 21.9 5.6 1.7 9.3 1.3 2.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 2012 21.6 5.1 1.6 9.9 1.3 2.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 21.2 5.5 2.1 8.8 1.3 2.8 0.6 21.8 5.6 2.1 9.0 1.3 2.9 0.7 21.5 5.7 1.9 9.1 1.3 2.8 0.6 20.9 5.4 1.7 9.2 1.3 2.7 0.5 20.7 5.0 1.6 9.9 1.3 2.6 0.3 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 333 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 HU Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.1 5.3 0.3 1.9 -128 549 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 28.2 12.4 3958 29.6 12.4 4097 29.9 12.3 4025 31.0 13.8 4321 32.4 14.0 4635 33.5 14.3 4507 8312 17.9 8604 20.3 8451 21.6 9075 23.1 9733 25.7 9465 26.8 -268 1.1 12.0 7.7 17.3 12.4 11.3 8.6 16.3 11.8 11.9 5.7 16.5 13.7 12.2 8.8 18.3 14.7 12.8 8.4 21.0 14.0 12.6 8.0 21.7 17.2 59.2 3.6 11.6 57.1 3.5 8.9 56.7 3.4 11.3 52.3 3.9 11.8 48.3 4.0 13.5 -2.2 -4.2 -1.9 3.9 -3.5 334 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 1153 8.9 9.9 9.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 3.2 0.6 0.3 4.4 4.8 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 10.7 45.6 4.2 12.7 -2.71 0.2 -0.8 -13.58 0.6 1.1 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 0.3 3.8 2.5 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 HU Children (0-17) HU Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 2.1 9.6 0.6 3.5 1.6 13.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 33.4 19.7 21.5 37.2 20.6 25.5 38.7 20.3 28.8 39.6 23.0 29.8 40.9 22.6 33.4 43.0 23.2 35.0 11.1 16.8 11.9 16.7 13.9 16.5 14.1 18.8 15.7 22.5 14.4 21.8 -1.3 -0.7 3.3 5.0 57.7 64.4 55.5 64.8 57.2 66.5 51.6 66.7 47.6 67.5 46.7 66.9 -0.9 -0.6 -11.1 2.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 35.8 18.1 23.1 36.3 17.7 25.2 36.2 17.0 25.6 37.5 18.9 28.4 38.6 19.8 30.1 40.5 20.3 32.9 11.2 6.9 5.0 15.3 13.4 9.8 6.8 6.5 17.9 10.1 8.8 6.4 6.6 16.5 12.2 10.2 5.3 6.4 17.7 12.5 12.8 4.6 7.3 19.5 14.3 12.2 9.9 7.4 20.1 14.4 335 Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.9 4.7 0.5 2.2 2.8 9.8 -0.6 5.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.4 4.8 1.0 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 HU % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) HU % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.6 5.4 0.7 2.3 1.4 9.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 29.1 12.0 17.6 30.2 11.9 20.1 30.5 11.9 21.3 31.7 13.6 23.1 32.9 13.6 25.6 34.5 14.3 27.0 12.3 5.8 18.1 48.8 11.8 11.1 6.2 16.5 47.1 9.0 11.3 5.4 16.7 47.7 11.6 11.6 6.1 18.6 47.6 12.1 11.9 5.3 21.7 47.7 13.9 12.0 6.6 22.4 46.3 13.3 0.1 1.3 0.7 -1.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.8 4.3 -2.5 1.5 60.3 58.0 57.0 52.3 49.3 45.4 -3.8 -14.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17.5 4.3 14.4 1.00 0.61 24.5 17.5 4.6 14.6 1.02 0.62 22.9 16.8 4.1 14.1 1.01 0.60 21.8 18.0 4.5 15.5 1.00 0.59 22.6 20.6 6.0 17.4 0.97 0.58 21.5 19.0 4.4 16.7 1.05 0.61 19.6 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.6 1.5 -1.6 0.1 -0.7 2.3 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.00 -1.9 -4.9 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) Note: ratio indicators are not expressed in %; all changes are in percentage points' difference with the exception of the poverty threshold, S80/S20 336 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 HU % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 33.4 19.7 21.5 37.2 20.6 25.5 38.7 20.3 28.8 39.6 23.0 29.8 40.9 22.6 33.4 43.0 23.2 35.0 Change 20122013 2.1 0.6 1.6 11.1 11.9 13.9 14.1 15.7 14.4 -1.3 13.4 16.6 9.0 17.5 15.3 15.9 7.4 8.4 7.2 7.9 6.7 70.9 68.8 69.7 73.7 13.3 14.1 12.4 2.0 5.0 2.0 5.0 23.0 Change 20082013 9.6 3.5 13.5 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 3.3 9.1 9.3 0.6 2.5 12.8 8.0 1.3 0.6 11.0 10.6 77.9 76.2 -1.7 5.3 67.5 64.9 14.7 12.2 14.1 1.9 0.8 15.9 15.6 1.0 8.0 1.0 7.0 2.0 6.0 14.0 14.0 17.0 14.0 16.0 14.0 37.0 52.0 57.0 65.0 59.0 61.0 46.0 16.8 9.0 16.7 9.7 16.5 9.2 18.8 7.2 22.5 9.0 21.8 8.6 -0.7 -0.4 5 -0.4 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 13.6 14.2 13.7 10.5 13.1 12.3 -0.8 -1.3 28.4 27.6 57.7 55.5 57.2 51.6 47.6 46.7 -0.89 -11.06 39.3 41.3 13.0 5.5 11.7 1.3 553 28.7 64.4 10.0 5.7 11.2 0.4 495 17.5 64.8 11.9 4.8 10.5 0.6 481 27.4 66.5 13.2 4.9 11.2 0.8 433 24.6 66.7 14.9 6.1 11.5 1.0 438 27.5 67.5 14.5 7.1 11.8 -0.4 1 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.1 10.5 6.7 12.0 28.6 66.9 1.1 -0.6 -0.1 2.5 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 337 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 100,1 75 -25 Low income 83 75 -8 High income 88,2 56,3 -31,9 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 83,3 71,8 / 76,7 42 years career: average income Low / high income 111,5 96 / 102 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 60,2 62,3 (100/0/0)* (64/36/0)* 59,5 62,3 (100/0/0)* (64/36/0)* 49 46,8 (100/0/0)* (64/36/0)* 70,9 / 79,9 58,9 / 66,3 83,7 / 68,7 69,4 / 57 65,5 -17,8 50,1 65,5 / 49,3 (-6,3/-27,4) 51,5 / 42,6 87,2 -24,3 2,8 -2,2 54,4 4,3 54,4 / 40,9 (2,9/-1,7) 72,4 5,4 72,4 / 54,4 (3,6/-2,3) 67 87,2 / 65,4 (-8,8/-36,6) 68,8 / 56,7 2,1 107,3 59,2 -48,1 70,2 49,1 -21,1 66,1 70,8 4,7 41,9 58,7 16,8 81,0 72,5 -8,5 48,8 60,2 11,4 48,2 55 6,8 29,0 45,6 16,6 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 31,2 26,6 -4,6 44,7 37,0 -7,7 38,4 40,3 1,9 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS HU Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 54.8 58.3 5.6 6.4 70 78.3 13.9 18.1 3.4 55.1 1223.54 7.46 2009 55.9 58.2 5.7 5.7 70.3 78.4 14 18.2 2.1 55.9 1217.43 7.74 2010 56.3 58.6 5.4 5.9 70.7 78.6 14.1 18.2 1.7 55 1355.77 8.06 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 338 2011 57.6 59.1 6 6 71.2 78.7 14.3 18.3 2.6 55.9 1417.32 8.03 2012 59.2 60.5 6.4 6.4 71.6 78.7 14.3 18.1 2.8 57.6 1412.63 7.97 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS169 Note: Purple line - the number of people eligible to regular social assistance, from 1 January the number of people eligible to benefit for persons in active age (regular social assistance + employment substituting benefit + those whose benefit is suspended (e.g. because of taking part in public work). In the period between February and December 2011, no data has been collected on the suspended benefits; Blue line - the number of people eligible to benefit for persons in active age, excluding those whose benefit is suspended. HU definition unit source link definition unit source comment Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat http://nui.epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=lmhu_m&lang=en Unemployment benefit Unemployment Benefit recipients - Recipients of jobseekers' allowance and jobseekers' assistance thousands of recipients National Employment Office (www.munka.hu) At the end of 2010 data from 2008 till 2010 about jobseekers' allowance were modified because of the changes in the functioning of the IT system, which revised the number of recipients of unemployment benefit. On the other hand data of 2006, 2007 were also modified because we have found significant differences between this number of HU jobseekers allowance, assistance receivers and number of recipients of jobseekers allowance, assistance (were registered by PES). 169 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 339 definition unit source definition comment definition unit source definition Social assistance benefit Recipients of regular social assistance thousands of recipients Hungarian Treasury Regular social assistance is an income supplement provision in the form of cash, provided by the local government of the settlement. Its aim to guarantee a minimal standard of living for those who have no income. From the 1 July 2006 the conditions of the provision and the way of calculation of the amount of support changed. Before that the local government awarded regular social assistance to a person who was over 18 years of age, was of active age, and had lost at least 67 per cent of his or her working ability or received blind persons’ benefit, or to a person who was of active age but not in employment, in the case that their subsistence was not provided by other means. By the new terms for the support is entitled only one person in a family. The assessing of the entitlement and the amount of the assistance based on the income projected to the consumer unit instead of the previous income per capita. The consumer unit is the rate which shows the structure of consumption within a family. The first major member of the family and the disabled child’s rate is 1,0 while the ratio of the companion (spouse) and a child is lower (0,9-0,7). The amount of support is variable and supplements the family’s effective total income to the limit of the entitlement. The regular social assistance from 1 January 2009 was changed to benefit for active aged which consist of the regular social assistance and the "support for to be ready to work" (from 1st September 2011 employment substituting benefit). The change in the benefit system was built up completely until 31 March 2009. Persons capable of performing work are entitled to employment substituting benefit. Persons who belong to this scope are obliged to cooperate with the Public Employment Service and to take part in public work. The employment substituting benefit is paid, when the person is not involved into public work. The amount of the benefit is fixed, it is equal to the 80 % of the minimum old-age pension. Persons incapable of performing work are entitled to regular social assistance (health impaired, people who have less than five years to the retirement age, as well as persons who bring up a child under 14, and the attendance of the child at an institution providing daily care is not ensured. Furthermore, the competent municipality may set other conditions in its local decree connected to the family circumstances, health or mental status of the claimant, in which case the person entitled to benefit for persons in active age is defined as a person incapable of performing work.). The calculation of regular social assistance is determined on the grounds of the composition and income of the family.Only one person in a family can be eligible to the benefit for persons in active age, except for the case when two claimants are entitled to different cash benefits (one person is entitled to employment substituting benefit, the other to regular social assistance. Disability benefit Disability subsidy recipients thousands of recipients Hungarian Treasury (www.allamkincstar.gov.hu) Financial support for severely disabled persons over the age of 18, who are unable to care for themselves or need permanenet assistance from others. 340 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 341 MALTA NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 6,560 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 342 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 MT AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 15.3 14.9 15.5 15.6 15.1 15.7 0.6 0.4 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 61 60 63 63 62 65 4.8 6.6 84877 83462 % of total pln 8.6 9.2 9.2 8.9 9.0 9.0 0.0 0.4 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 28 29 29 28 28 28 0.0 0.0 39644 40189 % of total pln 4.3 5.0 6.5 6.6 9.2 9.5 0.3 5.2 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 17 20 26 27 37 39 5.4 129.4 49673 48245 % of total pln 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.4 -0.1 -0.5 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 12 11 12 12 10 10 0.0 -16.7 13552 13504 % of total pln 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.9 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 2 4 6 5 5 6 20.0 200.0 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.9 2.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.8 5 5 7 5 8 8 0.0 60.0 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 2 2 2 1 2 1 -50.0 -50.0 3391 3685 SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 343 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT MT 2008 Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change)* 3.3 Employment growth (y-o-y % change)* 2.5 Unemployment rate 6.0 Long-term unemployment rate 2.5 Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP)* 18.1 2009 -2.5 0.0 6.9 2.9 19.6 2010 3.5 1.7 6.9 3.1 19.1 2011 2.2 2.8 6.4 3.1 18.7 2012 2.5 2.3 6.3 3.1 19.4 2013 2.5 4.0 6.4 2.9 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE MT Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 17.8 5.3 1.0 7.6 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 2009 19.3 5.9 0.9 8.3 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 2010 18.9 5.5 0.8 8.6 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 2011 18.5 5.4 0.8 8.4 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 2012 19.2 5.7 0.7 8.7 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.3 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 15.4 4.4 0.8 7.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 16.7 4.9 0.7 8.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 16.4 4.6 0.7 8.3 1.8 0.8 0.2 16.0 4.5 0.6 8.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 16.7 4.7 0.6 8.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 344 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 MT Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.9 3.9 0.6 0.4 561 1363 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20.1 15.3 7958 20.3 14.9 8146 21.2 15.5 8023 22.1 15.6 8417 23.1 15.1 8760 24.0 15.7 9321 16712 4.3 17106 5.0 16848 6.5 17676 6.6 18397 9.2 19575 9.5 1178 0.3 2863 5.2 8.6 7.7 20.3 15.3 9.2 7.7 16.2 14.8 9.2 9.1 17.3 16.8 8.9 11.4 17.7 15.7 9.0 9.7 16.1 13.8 9.0 0 0.4 19.1 14.4 3 0.6 33.2 4.3 3.3 34.9 4.0 2.8 34.0 4.3 3.7 32.8 4.0 3.0 37.1 3.9 2.6 32.6 4.1 2.6 -4.46 0.2 0 345 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 -1.2 -0.9 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 -0.57 -0.2 -0.7 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 MT Children (0-17) MT Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.0 7.0 0.9 3.6 -0.5 5.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25.0 20.4 6.3 26.5 21.2 7.2 26.7 22.1 7.7 27.8 23.0 7.7 31.0 23.1 12.3 32.0 24.0 11.8 9.8 20.9 10.4 17.2 9.7 15.2 10.0 17.0 10.4 15.0 11.2 20.9 0.8 5.9 1.4 0.0 33.6 5.5 35.0 5.7 31.4 6.4 29.9 7.4 36.0 6.7 28.8 4.6 -7.2 -2.1 -4.8 -0.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12.6 7.8 4.5 14.5 9.3 5.5 18.7 11.8 8.4 21.1 13.2 7.9 22.2 12.5 11.5 22.8 11.5 11.9 3.7 3.1 6.1 7.7 1.2 5.1 2.9 7.5 11.1 0.9 7.1 4.9 6.7 10.4 2.6 6.1 5.3 6.9 11.0 2.3 7.4 3.7 7.2 11.3 2.4 6.5 4.1 6.9 10.1 1.2 346 Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.6 10.2 -1.0 3.7 0.4 7.4 -0.9 0.4 -0.3 -1.2 -1.2 2.8 1.0 0.8 2.4 0.0 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 MT % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) MT % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.4 5.0 1.2 1.6 0.6 5.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17.5 12.0 4.0 18.1 12.1 4.6 19.6 13.1 6.4 20.7 13.1 6.8 21.1 12.4 8.9 22.5 13.6 9.5 8.2 5.1 20.5 3.8 3.1 8.9 5.4 16.2 3.7 2.6 9.0 5.8 17.7 3.9 3.6 8.6 6.1 18.3 4.3 2.9 8.6 5.2 16.9 3.8 2.4 8.3 5.9 19.3 3.9 2.4 -0.3 0.7 2.4 0.1 0.0 37.8 38.3 36.7 35.8 40.1 32.0 -8.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 26.0 24.3 3.1 0.73 0.41 1.7 22.2 19.7 4.1 0.77 0.45 1.5 21.7 18.2 5.0 0.81 0.44 1.5 21.0 17.6 4.7 0.79 0.48 1.0 22.3 17.3 6.4 0.80 0.46 1.3 20.8 14.9 7.1 0.79 0.56 1.2 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 347 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 0.1 0.8 -1.2 0.1 -0.7 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 -5.8 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.5 -5.2 -2.4 -9.4 0.7 4.0 -0.01 0.06 0.10 0.15 -0.1 -0.5 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 MT % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25.0 20.4 6.3 26.5 21.2 7.2 26.7 22.1 7.7 27.8 23.0 7.7 31.0 23.1 12.3 32.0 24.0 11.8 Change 20122013 1 0.9 -0.5 9.8 10.4 9.7 10.0 10.4 11.2 0.8 11.5 8.6 10.7 15.9 14.1 7.9 9.0 9.7 10.1 10.0 9.7 -0.3 1.8 11.0 10.6 77.2 66.9 79.0 77.9 75.4 72.6 -2.8 -4.6 67.5 64.9 14.1 15.9 16.0 16.9 17.0 17.8 0.8 3.7 15.9 15.6 10.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 4.0 8.0 3.0 16.0 1.0 14.0 14.0 26.0 30.0 25.0 29.0 31.0 37.0 49.0 47.0 49.0 44.0 60.0 46.0 20.9 13.9 17.2 15.9 15.2 14.9 17.0 15.9 15.0 18.2 20.9 16.6 5.9 -1.6 0 2.7 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 17.7 20.3 19.7 21.2 24.6 22.6 -2 4.9 28.4 27.6 33.6 35.0 31.4 29.9 36.0 28.8 -7.23 -4.77 39.3 41.3 3.2 9.3 27.2 0.3 34 1.8 5.5 2.7 8.6 27.1 0.4 22 2.2 5.7 3.6 9.1 23.8 0.5 22 2.1 6.4 3.1 9.0 22.7 0.4 27 2.8 7.4 3.2 10.1 21.1 0.6 22 1.5 6.7 3.5 10.2 20.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 -6.4 0.4 10.5 6.7 12.0 1.5 1.5 4.6 0 -2.1 -0.3 -0.9 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 348 Change 20082013 7 3.6 5.5 1.4 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 79,7 70,5 -9,2 Low income 77,7 71,1 -6,6 High income 43,2 39,6 -3,6 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 79,7 77,7 / 43,2 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 67,3 59,5 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 67,3 61,9 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 32,9 29,8 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 70,5 / 70,5 59,5 / 59,5 76,8 / 61,1 64,6 / 51,7 67,4 -12,3 67,3 67,6 / 37,9 (-10,1/-5,3) 67,3 / 32,9 -7,8 -5,4 -3,1 56,5 -10,8 58,8 / 28,3 (-8,5/-4,6) 79,7 70,5 -9,2 67,3 59,5 -7,8 77,7 / 43,2 71,1 / 39,6 (-6,6/-3,6) 67,3 / 32,9 61,9 / 29,8 (-5,4/-3,1) 73,8 68,2 -5,6 61,8 57,4 -4,4 79,7 70,5 -9,2 67,3 59,5 -7,8 79,7 70,5 -9,2 67,3 59,5 -7,8 79,7 67,3 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 EU27 2050 Difference 51,2 47,6 -3,6 44,7 37,0 -7,7 58,5 51,6 -6,9 48,0 39,1 -8,9 Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS MT Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 69 72.3 10.5 11.7 77.1 82.3 17 20.1 0.7 74.1 2009 69.4 71 11.4 11.6 77.9 82.7 16.8 20.6 1.3 69.2 2010 70.2 71.6 12 11.9 79.2 83.6 18.4 21.1 1.6 68.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 349 2011 70.3 70.7 11.8 11 78.6 83 17.7 21 1 70.8 2012 71.5 72.2 12.5 12.3 78.6 83 17.6 21 1.2 72.1 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS170 MT definition unit source link comment definition unit source link comment Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=une_nb_m&lang=en Unemployment benefit 1) Unemployment Benefit - UB; 2) Special Unemployment Benefit - SUB; 3) Unemployment Assistance UA thousands of recipients Ministry of the Family and Social Solidarity https://secure2.gov.mt/socialpolicy/socprot/mjdf_page/disclaimer.aspx. 1) Unemployment benefit is paid to persons who are registering as unemployed under the Part 1 register as held by the Employment & Training Corporation who have paid or credited an accumulation of fifty (50) social security contributions in total and an average of twenty (20) social security contributions in the preceding two (2) years prior to their claim. The unemployment benefit rate which is paid for a maximum of six (6) months may be increased to a special unemployment benefit rate; 2) If a person who is in receipt of Unemployment Benefit satisfies the conditions for the award of unemployment assistance, his benefit is increased to a Special Unemployment Benefit.; 3) Head of household who is seeking employment and is registering for work under Part 1 of the register with ETC is eligible for this benefit. 170 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 350 definition unit source link comment definition source link comment comment comment Social assistance benefit 1) Social Assistance - SA; 2) Social Assistance for Carers - SAF; 3) Supplementary Allowance - SPA (only low income earners are being considered as related to the crisis); 4) Social Assistance for Drug Addicts DAD thousands of beneficiaries Ministry of the Family and Social Solidarity https://secure2.gov.mt/socialpolicy/socprot/mjdf_page/disclaimer.aspx. 1) Head of Households, who are incapable of work due to medical reasons, or are unemployed and seeking employment, given that they fulfill the means and capital resources tests; 2) ATo be entitled for this benefit, claimant must either be single or a widow (male or female), who are taking care of a sick relative by themselves on a full time basis. Relatives must be the parents, grand-parents, brothers, sisters, uncles, aunts, brothers or sisters’ in-laws and father/mother in laws. Claimants and patients are to give proof that they are residing in the same residence. Case will be referred for a medical examination; 3) Supplementary Allowance is payable to households where the total income of the members falls below the limits outlined by the Social Security Act from time to time. In this regard, not all Supplementary Allowance beneficiaries here are related to the economic crisis but only beneficiries on low household income. SPA is paid every 13 weeks (roughly each 3 months), being Dec/Jan, Mar/Apr, Jun/Jul, and Sep/Oct; 4) A person who is undergoing a drug or alcohol rehabilitation therapeutic programme is eligible for this benefit. An official document from the institution concerned is received by the Department confirming date when programme was initiated. Disability benefit 1) Disability Pension - SHP; 2) Pension for the visually impaired - BLD; 3) Disablement Pension (termed as Injury Pension in Social Security Act CAP 318)- DP; 4) Invalidity Pension - IP Ministry of the Family and Social Solidarity https://secure2.gov.mt/socialpolicy/socprot/mjdf_page/disclaimer.aspx. 1) Payable to citizens of Malta over 16 years of age. Various types of disabilities are listed under the Social Security Act; 2) Claimant must be 14 years of age or over, and provide a medical certificate from an ophthalmologist from Mater Dei Hospital explaining the patient’s visual medical condition. This Benefit is means tested. Claimant’s income, together with the rate of Pension for the Visually Impaired must not exceed the National Minimum Wage as applicable to an 18-year-old person; 3) Payable if injury or disease caused or contracted whilst at work is considered to cause a loss of physical or mental faculty calculated between 20% & 89%. Rates awarded according to degree of Disability. Where the degree of disablement is assessed at 90% and over, the person concerned is automatically awarded an Invalidity Pension at the full rate. 4) Payable to persons deemed permanently incapable for suitable full-time or regular part-time employment. Various rates according to different conditions. “The Maltese economy recorded an increase of 2.5 per cent in real GDP during 2013 emanating primarily from the domestic side of the economy as the domestic sector contributed 1.5 percentage points towards overall growth. The annual contribution from the external sector was neutral, yet the stock building component together with a significant statistical residual contributed positively by 1.0 percentage points. According to latest data by NSO, real GDP growth expanded by 3.2 per cent in the first half of 2014. According to the latest forecasts by the Ministry for Finance, the Maltese economy is expected to retain the positive momentum in the second half of 2014. Overall growth in 2014 is expected to reach 3.0 per cent in real terms. The labour market continued to perform well during 2013, with the unemployment rate (based on harmonised definition) standing at 6.4 per cent, well below the EU average rate of 10.8 per cent. The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) data indicates that during the first half of 2014, the (LFS) unemployment rate (LFS) stood on average at 5.9 per cent. According to the above-mentioned forecasts, the unemployment rate is expected at around 6.0 per cent in 2014.” Due to the favourable conditions in the registered economic activity a declining trend in the number of unemployment benefit recipients was observed from the second quarter 2010 and continued well throughout 2011. As from the third quarter 2011 till the third quarter 2013, the number of persons eligible for unemployment related benefits gradually increased.Following this increase, data from the Employment and Training Corporation (ETC) indicates that the number of persons registered as unemployed as at the end of third quarter 2014 stood at 6599, a decrease of 1020, or 13,0 per cent over the corresponding month in 2013. 351 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 352 NETHERLANDS NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people aged 0-64 living in a jobless household by 100,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: National Statistics, NL (Ministerie van Sociale Zaken en Werkgelegenheid) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 353 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 NL AROP VLWI SMD % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 10.5 11.1 10.3 11.0 10.1 10.4 0.3 -0.1 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 1713 1816 1694 1816 1678 1735 3.4 1.3 84877 83462 % of total pln 8.2 8.5 8.4 8.9 8.9 9.4 0.5 1.2 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 1053 1083 1068 1128 1133 1184 4.5 12.4 39644 40189 % of total pln 1.5 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 0.2 1.0 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 252 237 366 407 387 416 7.5 65.1 49673 48245 % of total pln 2.0 2.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 0.2 0.5 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 332 456 292 337 391 408 4.3 22.9 13552 13504 % of total pln 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 -0.3 0.1 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 37 55 41 72 97 43 -55.7 16.2 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.1 1.8 1.8 85 50 100 144 70 62 -11.4 -27.1 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 46 41 111 55 78 110 41.0 139.1 3391 3685 AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 354 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT NL Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 1.8 1.5 3.1 1.1 26.9 2009 -3.7 -0.7 3.7 0.9 29.7 2010 1.5 -0.4 4.5 1.2 30.3 2011 0.9 0.7 4.4 1.5 30.5 2012 -1.2 -0.2 5.3 1.8 31.4 2013 -0.8 -1.0 6.7 2.4 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE NL Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 26.9 9.4 2.4 9.7 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.4 1.7 2009 29.7 10.4 2.5 10.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.4 2.0 2010 30.3 10.7 2.5 10.7 1.2 1.2 1.6 0.4 2.0 2011 30.5 10.9 2.4 10.8 1.2 1.2 1.5 0.4 2.2 2012 31.4 11.3 2.3 11.3 1.2 1.1 1.8 0.4 2.1 3.9 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.7 4.5 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 2.0 4.6 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 2.0 4.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 2.2 4.8 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 2.1 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 23.0 9.3 2.0 8.8 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 25.2 10.3 2.0 9.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 25.7 10.6 2.0 9.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 25.7 10.8 1.9 9.8 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 26.6 11.3 1.9 10.2 1.2 0.9 1.1 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 355 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 NL Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.9 1 0.3 -0.1 229 131 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 14.9 10.5 11485 15.1 11.1 11618 15.1 10.3 11288 15.7 11.0 11300 15.0 10.1 11387 15.9 10.4 11616 24119 1.5 24399 1.4 23705 2.2 23730 2.5 23912 2.3 24393 2.5 481 0.2 274 1 8.2 6.4 14.9 10.5 8.5 4.7 16.5 10.6 8.4 8.2 16.2 10.0 8.9 7.7 15.5 11.0 8.9 5.8 17.3 10.7 9.4 0.5 1.2 16.5 11.8 -0.8 1.1 47.2 4.0 13.7 45.9 4.0 13.1 51.2 3.7 14.0 47.4 3.8 14.5 51.0 3.6 14.4 50.0 3.6 15.7 0.0 1.9 -2.3 0.5 -2.1 -1.0 356 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 1.6 1.3 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 -0.97 0 1.3 2.76 -0.4 2 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 1.2 -1.0 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 NL Children (0-17) NL Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.1 1.5 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 0.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.5 12.9 2.2 17.5 15.4 1.5 16.9 13.7 2.0 18.0 15.5 2.9 16.9 13.2 3.3 17.0 12.6 2.3 5.1 12.7 5.4 14.8 5.8 14.7 6.3 15.3 6.4 15.6 6.4 12.1 0.0 -3.5 1.3 -0.6 43.9 1.5 38.9 1.2 45.6 1.9 36.2 1.6 44.5 2.4 47.3 2.5 2.7 0.1 3.4 1.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25.5 20.0 1.0 26.5 20.1 1.2 27.9 19.4 4.6 27.1 21.8 3.7 24.1 19.8 2.1 28.0 22.9 2.8 11.6 4.9 3.9 4.6 18.0 12.3 3.5 4.8 5.6 15.6 11.8 6.9 6.0 5.8 18.2 9.2 8.0 5.3 5.0 18.4 8.2 3.2 6.6 5.7 19.7 8.3 5.2 7.7 6.7 21.3 357 Change Change 201220082013 2013 3.9 2.5 3.1 2.9 0.7 1.8 0.1 2.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 -3.3 0.3 3.8 2.1 3.3 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 NL % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) NL % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.6 2.3 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.8 9.9 1.6 15.9 10.3 1.6 16.5 10.1 2.7 17.0 10.5 2.8 16.5 10.1 2.4 18.1 10.9 3.0 9.5 4.7 17.1 2.1 14.0 9.7 5.0 20.7 2.3 13.3 9.4 5.1 17.3 2.5 14.6 9.8 5.4 16.7 2.1 15.4 9.9 4.6 18.9 3.1 15.6 10.5 4.2 19.4 3.3 17.2 0.6 -0.4 0.5 0.2 1.6 1.0 -0.5 2.3 1.2 3.2 50.0 49.3 53.5 51.6 53.7 51.3 -2.3 1.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 9.7 9.4 0.4 0.84 0.43 0.1 8.1 7.7 0.4 0.86 0.44 0.0 6.2 5.9 0.3 0.87 0.47 0.2 6.9 6.5 0.4 0.87 0.46 0.1 6.2 5.5 0.7 0.90 0.47 0.4 6.1 5.5 0.8 0.90 0.49 0.0 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 358 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.1 -3.6 0.0 -3.9 0.1 0.4 0.00 0.06 0.02 0.06 -0.4 -0.1 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 NL % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.5 12.9 2.2 17.5 15.4 1.5 16.9 13.7 2.0 18.0 15.5 2.9 16.9 13.2 3.3 17.0 12.6 2.3 Change 20122013 0.1 -0.6 -1 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.4 0 7.8 4.9 15.9 16.6 6.4 5.8 6.8 6.0 6.7 5.5 4.8 -0.7 -1 11.0 10.6 62.6 69.7 53.7 70.2 54.0 49.2 -4.8 -13.4 67.5 64.9 10.1 12.2 11.2 11.8 10.1 10.1 0 0 15.9 15.6 41.0 6.0 43.0 6.0 44.0 6.0 46.0 6.0 39.0 7.0 14.0 14.0 77.0 75.0 76.0 76.0 75.0 37.0 12.0 12.0 15.0 13.0 14.0 46.0 12.7 34.3 10.1 41.9 14.8 14.7 15.3 15.6 12.1 -3.5 -0.6 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 41.0 39.8 38.3 37.1 36.8 -0.3 -5.1 28.4 27.6 43.9 38.9 45.6 36.2 44.5 47.3 2.74 3.37 39.3 41.3 11.5 1.9 11.4 0.5 698 0.6 1.5 13.3 2.1 10.9 0.4 711 0.5 1.2 14.2 2.1 10.0 0.4 695 0.6 1.9 14.1 1.9 9.1 0.7 654 0.4 1.6 13.4 2.0 8.8 0.1 649 0.6 2.4 14.8 2.2 9.2 1.4 0.2 0.4 3.3 0.3 -2.2 10.5 6.7 12.0 1.0 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 1 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 359 Change 20082013 1.5 -0.3 0.1 1.3 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 105 101 -4,0 Low income 106,9 103,3 -3,6 High income 97,2 73,1 -24,1 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 98,1 105,5/87,9 42 years career: average income Low / high income 109,6 Gross2010 84,5 86,3 (48/0/52)* (48/0/52)* 87,4 92,7 (69/0/31)* (68/0/32)* 84,2 61,8 (25/0/75)* (34/0/66)* 101 / 101 86,3 / 86,3 101 / 101 86,3 / 86,3 98,7 0,6 77,9 101,9/71,4 (-3,6/-16,5) 83,4 / 74,7 108,3 -1,3 Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) 1,8 5,3 -22,4 84,1 6,2 91,2 / 59,8 7,8 / -14,9 93,4 4,5 97,3 / 68,3 7,2 / -22,2 88,9 107,7/102,6 107,6/78,7 (-0,1/-23,9) 90,1 / 90,5 10 years after retirement Gross2050 Difference 105 101 -4,0 84,5 86,3 1,8 101,5 97,5 -4,0 81,2 83 1,8 102,7 97,5 -5,2 82,3 83 0,7 93,4 89,5 -3,9 73,5 75,2 1,7 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 : : : 44,7 37,0 -7,7 : : : 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS NL Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 62.4 59.9 9.9 9.7 78.4 82.5 17.4 20.7 0.3 77.3 3772.59 10.99 2009 61.7 60.1 9.5 10.4 78.7 82.9 17.6 21 0.3 77.7 3775.97 11.88 2010 61.3 60.2 9.4 9.5 78.9 83 17.7 21 0.4 78 3847.28 12.15 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 360 2011 64 59 10.4 9.9 79.4 83.1 18.1 21.2 0.4 76.3 3899.28 12.1 2012 63.5 58.9 10 10.1 79.3 83 18 21 0.5 75.6 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS171 171 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 361 NL definition unit source link comment definition unit source link comment definition unit source link comment definition unit source link comment Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Statline http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb/publication/?VW=T&DM=SLNL&PA=80590NED& D1=12&D2=0&D3=0&D4=39-50,52-63,65-76,78-89,91-102,104-115,117-128,130141,143-151&HD=141027-1002&HDR=T&STB=G1,G2,G3 Unemployment benefit Unemployment Benefit recipients (uitkeringen Werkloosheidswet - WW) thousands of recipients, end of month Institute for Employee Benefit Schemes (Uitvoeringsorganisatie http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb/publication/?VW=T&DM=SLNL&PA=37789KSZ&D 1=0,7,9&D2=104-115,117-128,130-141,143-154,156-167,169-180,182-193,195206,208-215&HD=141027-1007&HDR=T&STB=G1 Social assistance benefit/means-tested minimum income Social assistance recipients (uitkeringen Wet Werk en Bijstand - WWB en Wet thousands of recipients, end of month Statistics Netherlands (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek - CBS) http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb/publication/?VW=T&DM=SLNL&PA=37789KSZ&D 1=0,7,9&D2=104-115,117-128,130-141,143-154,156-167,169-180,182-193,195206,208-215&HD=141027-1007&HDR=T&STB=G1 Disability benefit Disability benefit recipients (uitkeringen Arbeidsongeschiktheidswetten - AO) thousands of recipients, end of month Institute for Employee Benefit Schemes (Uitvoeringsorganisatie werknemersverzekeringen - UWV) http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb/publication/?VW=T&DM=SLNL&PA=37789KSZ&D 1=0,7,9&D2=104-115,117-128,130-141,143-154,156-167,169-180,182-193,195206,208-215&HD=141027-1007&HDR=T&STB=G1 362 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 363 AUSTRIA NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 235,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 364 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 AT % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 15.2 14.5 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.4 0.0 -0.8 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 1252 1201 1214 1207 1201 1203 0.2 -3.9 84877 83462 % of total pln 7.4 7.1 7.8 8.6 7.7 7.8 0.1 0.4 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 472 452 497 546 490 496 1.2 5.1 39644 40189 % of total pln 5.9 4.6 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.2 0.2 -1.7 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 485 376 353 333 335 355 6.0 -26.8 49673 48245 % of total pln 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.8 -0.4 0.2 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 132 139 185 181 188 153 -18.6 15.9 13552 13504 % of total pln 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 -0.2 -0.5 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 135 110 103 89 111 96 -13.5 -28.9 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.8 1.8 102 91 92 93 73 97 32.9 -4.9 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 39 21 25 37 39 40 2.6 2.6 3391 3685 AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 365 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT AT Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 1.4 2.0 3.8 0.9 27.7 2009 -3.8 -0.7 4.8 1.0 29.8 2010 1.8 1.0 4.4 1.1 29.8 2011 2.8 1.7 4.2 1.1 29.0 2012 0.9 1.3 4.3 1.1 29.3 2013 0.3 0.7 4.9 1.2 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE AT Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 27.7 7.3 2.1 11.7 1.9 2.8 1.4 0.2 0.3 2009 29.8 7.7 2.2 12.7 2.0 3.0 1.7 0.2 0.3 2010 29.8 7.6 2.2 12.8 2.0 3.1 1.7 0.2 0.3 2011 29.0 7.4 2.2 12.7 1.9 2.8 1.5 0.1 0.3 2012 29.3 7.5 2.2 13.0 1.9 2.8 1.5 0.1 0.4 2.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 2.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 2.3 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 2.3 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 25.7 7.2 1.7 11.1 1.8 2.6 1.2 27.6 7.6 1.8 12.0 1.9 2.8 1.5 27.5 7.5 1.8 12.1 1.8 2.8 1.4 26.7 7.4 1.7 12.0 1.8 2.6 1.2 27.1 7.5 1.7 12.3 1.8 2.6 1.2 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 366 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 AT Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.3 -1.8 0 -0.8 175 1196 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20.6 15.2 11359 19.1 14.5 11683 18.9 14.7 11710 19.2 14.5 12255 18.5 14.4 12380 18.8 14.4 12555 23855 5.9 24534 4.6 24590 4.3 25735 4.0 25999 4.0 26365 4.2 366 0.2 7.4 5.6 19.9 15.2 7.1 6.2 19.2 13.6 7.8 6.5 21.8 12.9 8.6 5.8 19.1 12.9 7.7 5.8 20.1 13.2 7.8 8.8 21.3 13.7 41.3 4.2 6.1 42.7 4.2 5.6 43.5 4.3 6.5 46.5 4.1 5.5 44.2 4.2 7.0 0.8 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 1.8 Note: Regarding the indicator “anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate‖ the base year is 2008 367 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 2510 -1.7 9.9 9.6 0.1 3 1.2 0.5 0.4 3.2 1.4 -1.5 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 10.7 44.4 4.1 7.2 0.21 -0.1 0.2 3.09 -0.1 1.1 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.9 -3.8 -2.7 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 AT Children (0-17) AT Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 2.0 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.6 -0.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 22.9 18.1 6.7 20.8 17.1 5.0 22.4 19.0 5.6 22.1 17.8 5.8 20.9 17.5 5.8 22.9 18.6 6.4 5.5 18.6 5.7 18.9 5.9 20.5 7.0 16.6 6.1 16.3 7.2 18.1 1.1 1.8 51.0 23.6 52.1 20.7 49.7 19.4 54.8 18.6 52.7 21.7 52.9 23.4 0.2 1.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 19.5 14.7 5.9 20.6 15.5 5.9 18.9 15.1 4.9 18.4 15.8 3.9 20.2 17.3 3.3 18.9 15.1 3.4 4.7 8.3 4.9 8.7 7.2 4.9 8.2 6.0 9.5 7.6 6.3 8.0 5.2 8.8 8.9 5.7 9.4 5.0 8.3 8.5 5.6 12.5 5.2 7.8 11.6 4.6 9.8 5.4 8.7 8.7 368 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 1.7 -0.5 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 2.0 -0.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.3 -0.6 -2.2 0.4 0.1 -2.5 -1.0 -2.7 0.2 0.9 -2.9 -0.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 1.5 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 AT % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) AT % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.1 -1.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 -1.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 19.8 13.3 6.0 18.7 13.0 4.9 18.3 12.9 4.5 18.8 13.1 4.0 18.4 13.3 4.1 18.3 12.9 4.3 8.0 8.5 21.3 14.7 6.4 7.5 8.2 21.4 12.7 5.9 8.4 7.5 23.8 11.8 7.0 9.1 7.6 19.1 12.5 6.2 8.2 8.2 23.9 14.2 7.6 7.9 7.9 23.4 14.9 7.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 2.1 0.2 0.9 44.1 45.2 47.1 48.6 45.5 46.3 0.8 2.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 21.2 18.9 4.4 0.88 0.61 4.9 18.6 17.4 2.8 0.89 0.56 5.4 17.4 16.8 1.9 0.90 0.57 4.7 17.4 16.2 2.1 0.92 0.59 4.3 16.2 15.1 1.9 0.93 0.58 4.7 16.2 15.4 1.8 0.95 0.59 4.9 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 369 Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.0 -5.0 0.3 -3.5 -0.1 -2.6 0.02 0.07 0.01 -0.02 0.2 0.0 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN 370 EU28 AT % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 22.9 18.1 6.7 20.8 17.1 5.0 22.4 19.0 5.6 22.1 17.8 5.8 20.9 17.5 5.8 22.9 18.6 6.4 Change 20122013 2 1.1 0.6 5.5 5.7 5.9 7.0 6.1 7.2 1.1 4.0 3.7 5.7 4.5 5.7 9.2 9.6 8.8 8.3 9.2 8.6 59.0 64.7 74.8 60.4 15.6 14.2 15.4 4.0 2.0 7.0 2.0 51.0 Change 20082013 0 0.5 -0.3 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 1.7 9.1 9.3 3.5 5.2 12.8 9.4 0.8 -0.2 11.0 10.6 69.9 62.3 -7.6 3.3 67.5 64.9 14.4 14.1 15.3 1.2 -0.3 15.9 15.6 6.0 3.0 11.0 3.0 7.0 7.0 14.0 14.0 58.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 37.0 20.0 21.0 26.0 28.0 23.0 46.0 18.6 34.5 4.3 40.5 18.9 33.8 4.0 39.7 20.5 33.2 4.8 39.1 16.6 33.0 3.6 39.1 16.3 32.8 4.4 38.6 18.1 32.1 4.7 38.1 1.8 -0.7 0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -2.4 0.4 -2.4 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 28.4 27.6 51.0 52.1 49.7 54.8 52.7 52.9 0.21 1.96 39.3 41.3 4.7 5.4 10.1 0.3 287 7.2 23.6 4.2 5.3 8.7 0.2 289 6.7 20.7 5.6 5.0 8.3 0.5 307 6.9 19.4 3.5 5.3 8.3 0.2 281 6.0 18.6 5.2 4.2 7.6 0.2 252 6.4 21.7 6.3 4.7 7.3 1.1 0.5 -0.3 1.6 -0.7 -2.8 10.5 6.7 12.0 7.4 23.4 1 1.7 0.2 -0.2 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 371 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 85 88,7 3,7 Low income 83,7 83,8 0,1 High income 77,2 72,1 -5,1 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 69,9 68,8 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 69,9 68,8 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 63,9 51,8 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 88,7 / 88,7 68,8 / 68,8 87 / 89,4 69,1 / 68,2 59,5 -1,1 -1,1 -12,1 77,2 79,3 2,1 60,7 -1,2 73 / 68,2 75 / 64,8 ( - 2 / -3,4) 59,7 / 54 87,9 97,7 9,8 73,4 88 / 80,4 95,5 / 80,4 ( - 7,5 / 0) 71,9 / 66,5 75,2 80,3 5,1 60,4 59,4 -1,0 83 87,9 4,9 67,5 67,9 0,4 84,4 86,8 2,4 69,2 66,8 -2,4 70,1 70,7 0,6 52,5 51,6 -0,9 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 42,3 36,5 -5,8 44,7 37,0 -7,7 47,7 40,3 -7,5 48,0 39,1 -8,9 59,9 / 45,5 ( 0,2 / -8,5) 78,3 4,9 78,3 / 59,2 ( - 6,4 / -7,3) EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS AT Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 58.3 59.7 7.4 7.5 77.8 83.3 17.7 21.1 0.7 69.6 3275.15 10.49 2009 59.5 60.8 8.3 8.2 77.6 83.2 17.7 21.2 0.5 70 3305.67 11.17 2010 59.5 60.7 8.5 7.9 77.9 83.5 17.9 21.4 0.6 69.5 3473.01 11.13 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 372 2011 59.8 60.3 8.3 8.3 78.3 83.8 18.1 21.7 0.4 69.4 3531.24 10.87 2012 60.2 62.5 8.9 9.5 78.4 83.6 18.1 21.3 0.3 70 3680.14 11.1 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS172 Recipients of social assistance benefits/means-tested minimum Income* Quarterly data (changes in % to the year 2008): Q1 09 4.7% Q1 10 9.8% Q2 09 7.1% Q3 09 10.6% Q3 10 11.0% Q3 11 27.0% Q4 09 8.7% Q4 11 37.0% *The increase can not only be explained by the impact of the crisis, but is also due to the introduction of the means-tested minimum income scheme, reinforced information policy as well as statistical improvements. The developments are based on comparable data and cover a very large proportion but not all recipients. Recipients of means-tested minimum income benefits New time series starting 03-2012 (see explanatory table): March 2012 149461 September 2012 149729 March 2013 168626 September 2013 168644 March 2014 185076 September 2014 184298 Change March 2012 - September 2014: +23,3% 172 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 373 AT definition unit source Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment benefit definition unit source Unemployment Benefit recipients ; Unemployment assistance recipients thousands of recipients Public Employment Service Austria (AMS) comment An unemployed person is defined as someone without employment who has registered as seeking work with the public employment service (AMS) and is both willing and able to work. Claims for transfer payments can only be made by those who have made employment insurance contributions for an appropriate period. For example, those who have interrupted their working careers for a long period of time (in particular returners) and school leavers receive no unemployment insurance benefit. In order to receive benefit a person must be registered with the AMS. To be entitled to claim unemployment benefit, a person must be able and willing to work, available for work but unemployed and have been in insured employment for the appropriate qualifying period. Unemployment assistance, which is payable on expiry of entitlement to unemployment benefit, combines the principles of social insurance and welfare. Firstly, the rate of the income support is calculated on the basis of the unemployment benefit previously received. Secondly, applicants must be in serious need of financial support, after taking the income of the partner and exemption limits into account. Social assistance benefit/means-tested minimum income definition unit source Number of recipients of Social Assistance Benefits/means-tested minimum income Quarterly data (changes in % to the previous year) Social Departments of the Federal Provinces comment Figures include between six and nine Federal Provinces; the data of the cities with municipal departments is missing in one of them. The provinces register very diverse trends. - Social assistance is defined, implemented and administered by the Federal Provinces (Bundesländer); according to the Austrian Constitution each province has its own Social Assistance Act, but there are some common basic principles: social assistance is granted in individual situations of need if a person’s own resources and payments from third parties are not longer sufficient to allow for a decent way of life. Eligibility depends on household resources, other relatives have a duty under family law to provide financial support. All resources are considered in the means and income test (apart from family benefits). In order to realize the objective of combating poverty in all relevant fields of policy, a means-tested minimum income has been introduced as a reform of the social assistance scheme. The federal government and the provincial governments laid down the salient points of a means-tested minimum income which has been subsequently implemented in the corresponding national and provincial legislation. Since the 1st of September 2010 the laws for the means-tested minimum income were introduced in in 7 of 9 federal provinces. The other two provinces have introduced the minimum income scheme until October 2011. - Due to the nationwide introduction of the means-tested minimum income scheme, the comparison was started anew in 2012. Disability benefit definition unit source Disability benefit recipients thousands of recipients Federal Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs and Consumer Protection comment Figures do not include people who reached statutory retirement age due to comparability reasons; the data untill January 2011 represent an estimation, because the calculation of the accurate share of disability pensioners only existed for one month (December). 374 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 375 POLAND NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 1,500,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 376 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 PL % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 16.9 17.1 17.6 17.7 17.1 17.3 0.2 0.4 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 6353 6435 6588 6623 6478 6520 0.6 2.6 84877 83462 % of total pln 8.0 6.9 7.3 6.9 6.9 7.2 0.3 -0.8 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 2444 2102 2211 2073 2063 2124 3.0 -13.1 39644 40189 % of total pln 17.7 15.0 14.2 13.0 13.5 11.9 -1.6 -5.8 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 6680 5625 5331 4885 5108 4486 -12.2 -32.8 49673 48245 % of total pln 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 0.1 0.3 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 499 492 568 608 571 620 8.6 24.2 13552 13504 % of total pln 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.4 -0.5 -1.3 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 1758 1728 1616 1490 1496 1295 -13.4 -26.3 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.7 0.0 -0.2 1.8 1.8 704 655 684 571 651 643 -1.2 -8.7 9240 9250 AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI % of total pln 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.4 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 322 177 168 145 152 183 20.4 -43.2 3391 3685 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 377 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT PL Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 5.1 3.8 7.1 2.4 18.9 2009 1.6 0.4 8.1 2.5 20.1 2010 3.9 -2.7 9.7 3.0 19.5 2011 4.5 0.6 9.7 3.6 18.6 2012 2.0 0.1 10.1 4.1 17.6 2013 1.6 -0.1 10.3 4.4 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE PL Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 18.9 4.5 1.6 9.0 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 2009 20.1 4.7 1.5 9.9 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 2010 19.5 4.5 1.6 9.3 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 2011 18.6 4.3 1.5 9.0 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 2012 17.6 4.2 1.5 8.7 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 18.1 4.4 1.6 9.0 2.0 0.8 0.3 19.4 4.7 1.5 9.9 2.0 0.9 0.4 18.8 4.5 1.6 9.3 2.0 0.9 0.4 17.9 4.3 1.5 9.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 16.9 4.2 1.5 8.7 1.9 0.4 0.3 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: i) For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs; ii) from 2011 expenditure on public kindergartens has been added to the Family/Children benefits. 378 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 PL Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.9 -4.7 0.2 0.4 282 1424 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 30.5 16.9 4039 27.8 17.1 4417 27.8 17.6 4547 27.2 17.7 4993 26.7 17.1 5181 25.8 17.3 5463 8482 17.7 9275 15.0 9548 14.2 10486 13.0 10880 13.5 11471 11.9 591 -1.6 2989 -5.8 8.0 10.4 20.6 16.9 6.9 10.2 22.7 13.7 7.3 10.5 22.2 13.0 6.9 10.1 21.4 11.9 6.9 10.7 22.2 11.8 7.2 0.3 -0.8 22.6 12.0 0.4 0.2 32.7 5.1 9.7 27.5 5.0 8.2 27.9 5.0 9.1 26.6 5.0 10.2 25.3 4.9 10.5 24.8 4.9 10.3 -0.55 0 -0.2 379 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 2 -4.9 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 -7.89 -0.2 0.6 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 PL Children (0-17) PL Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.5 -3.1 1.7 0.8 -1.9 -5.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 32.9 22.4 17.5 31.0 23.0 15.3 30.8 22.5 14.9 29.8 22.0 13.2 29.3 21.5 13.7 29.8 23.2 11.8 5.0 21.9 4.7 23.7 4.8 24.2 4.1 22.6 4.6 21.5 5.0 22.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.2 31.1 63.3 23.6 62.1 26.7 60.6 26.9 59.8 25.6 60.1 22.4 57.5 -3.2 -2.6 -8.7 -5.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 34.4 20.1 19.4 29.9 19.8 15.6 30.4 20.9 14.7 29.1 20.7 12.8 31.2 21.8 14.9 30.8 21.5 14.3 6.7 11.3 5.7 12.3 10.5 5.3 10.8 7.0 13.8 8.7 6.5 12.2 8.2 14.5 8.7 5.8 11.0 8.6 15.4 10.0 6.2 11.6 8.9 15.9 11.4 6.1 11.7 9.1 16.4 10.6 380 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.4 -3.6 -0.3 1.4 -0.6 -5.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 -0.8 -0.6 0.4 3.4 4.1 0.1 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 PL % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) PL % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.6 -4.5 0.2 0.4 -1.2 -5.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 30.6 16.3 17.2 27.3 16.0 14.4 27.6 16.9 13.6 27.0 17.1 12.5 26.7 16.5 13.2 26.1 16.7 12.0 8.9 11.5 21.5 50.9 9.8 7.6 11.0 24.0 49.2 7.9 8.1 11.5 23.0 47.6 8.8 7.8 11.2 22.4 47.2 9.9 7.6 10.4 24.0 46.2 10.3 7.8 10.8 24.0 45.0 10.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 -1.2 0.0 34.5 30.4 29.9 28.2 27.0 26.8 -0.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 26.9 11.7 20.8 0.97 0.56 32.0 25.8 14.4 17.3 0.92 0.56 30.1 24.4 14.2 16.5 0.93 0.57 29.2 24.7 14.7 15.4 0.94 0.55 29.9 23.4 14.0 14.8 0.95 0.58 28.2 19.7 12.3 11.5 0.98 0.60 27.7 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 -1.1 -0.7 2.5 -5.9 0.5 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 -7.8 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -3.7 -7.2 -1.7 0.6 -3.3 -9.3 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.04 -0.5 -4.3 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) Note: ratio indicators are not expressed in %; all changes are in percentage points' difference with the exception of the poverty threshold, S80/S20 381 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 PL % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 32.9 22.4 17.5 31.0 23.0 15.3 30.8 22.5 14.9 29.8 22.0 13.2 29.3 21.5 13.7 29.8 23.2 11.8 Change 20122013 0.5 1.7 -1.9 5.0 4.7 4.8 4.1 4.6 5.0 0.4 15.8 15.8 14.8 12.5 14.2 14.4 13.9 13.9 13.1 12.6 13.7 1.1 -0.7 11.0 10.6 72.5 78.8 83.0 76.2 79.0 78.5 -0.5 6 67.5 64.9 19.8 20.3 19.4 19.7 18.8 20.3 1.5 0.5 15.9 15.6 0.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 5.0 14.0 14.0 8.0 8.0 10.0 9.0 10.0 37.0 27.0 31.0 32.0 34.0 26.0 46.0 21.9 7.6 23.7 7.5 24.2 7.4 22.6 6.8 21.5 6.9 22.1 6.1 0.6 -0.8 0.2 -1.5 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.2 10.1 9.0 -1.1 -2.7 28.4 27.6 31.1 23.6 26.7 26.9 25.6 22.4 -3.2 -8.67 39.3 41.3 8.7 2.6 5.0 2.0 2338 22.7 63.3 7.3 3.5 5.3 2.2 2327 19.4 62.1 8.8 3.5 5.4 2.6 2057 17.3 60.6 9.6 3.8 5.6 1.8 1836 14.7 59.8 9.8 3.8 5.7 2.2 1791 13.3 60.1 10.7 3.7 5.6 0.9 -0.1 -0.1 2 1.1 0.6 10.5 6.7 12.0 13.1 57.5 -0.2 -2.6 -9.6 -5.8 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 382 Change 20082013 -3.1 0.8 -5.7 0 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 75,5 43,3 -32,2 Low income 87,1 48,2 -38,9 High income 60,7 32,2 -28,5 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 70,5 81,7 / 56,4 42 years career: average income Low / high income 78 89,7 / 63,1 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 65,2 (100/0/0)* 75,8 (100/0/0)* 52,3 (100/0/0)* 34,6 (54/46/0)* 38,3 (59/41/0)* 26 (54/46/0)* 41,7 / 45,3 33,2 / 36,3 47,6 / 40,1 38,3 / 31,8 41,2 -29,3 60,8 48,2 / 30,6 (-33,5/-25,8) 71,1 / 48,4 48,6 -29,4 67,5 49,3 / 36,2 (-40,4/-26,9) 78,1 / 54,4 32,8 -30,6 -37,5 -26,3 -28 38,3 / 24,6 (-32,8/-23,8) 39,1 -28 39,1 / 29,4 (-39/-25) 58,4 35,1 -23,3 50,2 27,5 -22,7 67,7 32,4 -35,3 58,4 25,3 -33,1 72,3 40,8 -31,5 62,4 32,4 -30,0 62,9 33,9 -29,0 54,1 26,5 -27,6 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 EU27 2050 Difference 46,7 22,4 -24,3 44,7 37,0 -7,7 49,1 19,6 -29,5 48,0 39,1 -8,9 Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS PL Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 58.5 58.3 58.5 59.1 59.2 63 62.5 62.3 63.3 62.9 7 6.9 6.7 7.6 7.4 7.7 7.7 7.5 8.3 7.8 71.3 71.5 72.1 72.6 72.7 80 80.1 80.7 81.1 81.1 14.8 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.4 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.9 19.9 6 7.6 8.3 7.9 9 57.7 56.1 57.8 57.6 57.7 1026.93 1095.61 1168.26 1211.24 1258.31 6.89 7.21 7.02 6.87 6.75 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) Note: breaks in series for Healthy life years indicator in 2009; breaks in series for total health care expenditure in 2010 383 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS173 173 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) are given as a background. 384 PL Unemployment definition Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total unit thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted source eurostat, une_nb_m Unemployment benefit definition unit source link comment definition Total number of registered unemployed possessing benefit rights as of the end of month. thousands of recipients, monthly administrative data, Ministry of Labour and Social Policy http://www.psz.praca.gov.pl./main.php?do=ShowPage&nPID=867997&pT=detail s&sP=CONTENT,objectID,867970 Table 23, Column F Social assistance benefit/means-tested minimum income Total real number of social assistance beneficiaries regardless of their type, form, quantity and source of funding. Both monetary and in kind benefits are included. It informes about total number of persons who received at least one benefit in a given year. Double counting problem is addressed, but in division by benefit kind or form beneficiaries can be enumerated several times. unit thousands of recipients, annual source GUS, Local Data Bank and administrative data, Ministry of Labour and Social Policy Local Data Bank: http://stat.gov.pl/bdlen/app/strona.html?p_name=indeks Ministry of Labour and Social Policy data: http://www.mpips.gov.pl/pomocspoleczna/raporty-i-statystyki/statystyki-pomocy-spolecznej/, MPiPS-03 report, Dział 3 - Polska OGÓŁEM link Disability benefit definition Total number of beneficiaries of pensions resulting from an inability to work, from both non-agricultural social security system and farmers social insurance system. unit thousands of recipients, annual averages source GUS, Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Poland 2006-2013 & Concise Statistical Yearbook of Poland, 2006-2014 link http://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/roczniki-statystyczne/rocznikistatystyczne/rocznik-statystyczny-rzeczypospolitej-polskiej-2013,2,8.html http://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/roczniki-statystyczne/rocznikistatystyczne/maly-rocznik-statystyczny-polski-2014,1,15.html 385 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 386 PORTUGAL NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 200,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 387 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 PT % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 18.5 17.9 17.9 18.0 17.9 18.7 0.8 0.2 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 1967 1898 1903 1919 1887 1964 4.1 -0.2 84877 83462 % of total pln 6.3 7.0 8.6 8.3 10.1 12.2 2.1 5.9 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 517 567 700 666 791 950 20.1 83.8 39644 40189 % of total pln 9.7 9.1 9.0 8.3 8.6 10.9 2.3 1.2 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 1029 965 958 881 910 1148 26.2 11.6 49673 48245 % of total pln 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.5 3.1 0.6 1.7 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 153 197 223 224 263 329 25.1 115.0 13552 13504 % of total pln 3.2 2.9 2.2 2.9 2.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 337 311 239 311 278 339 21.9 0.6 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.6 2.2 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.8 122 123 184 140 168 235 39.9 92.6 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 22 29 39 50 44 47 6.8 113.6 3391 3685 AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 388 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT EU28 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 0.0 -2.9 1.9 -1.3 -3.2 -1.4 -0.4 0.1 0.5 -2.6 -1.5 -1.5 -4.2 -2.8 -0.2 -0.3 8.7 10.7 12.0 12.9 15.8 16.4 10.5 10.8 4.0 4.7 6.3 6.2 7.7 9.3 4.7 5.1 23.2 25.5 25.4 25.0 25.4 28.3 PT Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE PT Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 23.2 6.5 2.1 10.3 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.0 0.3 2009 25.5 7.3 2.1 11.1 1.8 1.4 1.4 0.0 0.4 2010 25.4 7.0 2.1 11.3 1.8 1.4 1.4 0.0 0.3 2011 25.0 6.3 2.1 11.9 1.8 1.2 1.4 0.0 0.3 2012 25.4 6.4 1.9 12.0 1.9 1.2 1.7 0.0 0.3 2.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 2.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 2.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.3 2.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.3 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 20.9 6.5 2.0 9.7 1.7 0.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 22.9 7.3 2.0 10.4 1.8 0.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 22.8 7.0 1.9 10.6 1.8 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 22.8 6.3 1.9 11.3 1.8 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 23.2 6.4 1.7 11.4 1.9 0.3 1.5 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 389 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 PT Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 202 190 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 26.0 18.5 5702 24.9 17.9 5655 25.3 17.9 5837 24.4 18.0 5773 25.3 17.9 5690 27.5 18.7 5892 11974 9.7 11876 9.1 12258 9.0 12122 8.3 11950 8.6 12373 10.9 423 2.3 399 1.2 6.3 13.1 23.2 18.5 7.0 9.8 23.6 18.1 8.6 13.2 22.7 16.1 8.3 13.6 23.2 17.9 10.1 11.4 24.1 19.4 12.2 2.1 5.9 27.4 22.3 3.3 2.9 25.7 6.1 7.6 26.3 6.0 6.1 32.2 5.6 4.2 29.1 5.7 7.2 29.3 5.8 8.3 26.7 6.0 8.3 1.2 1.5 1.1 -5.3 -3.2 -1.0 390 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 4.2 3.8 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 -2.58 0.2 0 0.97 -0.1 0.7 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 2.2 -2.2 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 PT Children (0-17) PT Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 3.8 2.1 2.6 1.6 3.6 2.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 29.5 22.8 11.8 28.7 22.9 10.5 28.7 22.4 10.8 28.6 22.4 11.3 27.8 21.8 10.3 31.6 24.4 13.9 5.9 26.2 6.2 27.8 8.0 24.8 7.2 25.1 8.5 26.9 9.7 33.1 1.2 6.2 3.8 6.9 24.3 23.5 25.4 21.5 30.4 21.4 27.5 16.8 26.4 15.9 23.0 17.7 -3.3 1.8 -1.2 -5.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 27.5 18.6 11.6 25.9 16.0 11.0 26.1 18.7 9.4 26.5 21.8 9.4 31.3 22.2 9.0 33.1 24.6 13.1 4.1 11.3 6.8 12.7 9.3 5.7 9.2 7.9 14.0 6.9 7.1 8.2 8.2 14.9 4.7 7.0 11.7 11.5 16.0 9.3 11.2 11.0 14.1 18.5 9.8 13.0 13.6 13.3 18.8 9.2 391 Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.8 5.6 2.4 6.0 4.1 1.5 1.8 2.6 -0.8 0.3 -0.6 8.9 2.3 6.5 6.1 -0.1 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 PT % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) PT % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 2.9 4.0 1.5 2.1 2.5 1.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24.5 16.3 8.9 23.5 15.8 8.3 24.1 15.7 8.3 23.2 16.2 7.6 25.6 16.9 8.2 28.5 18.4 10.7 6.5 11.3 23.6 16.1 8.0 7.2 10.3 25.9 14.5 6.3 8.8 9.6 25.7 15.0 4.3 8.6 10.2 25.9 11.3 7.3 10.6 9.9 26.9 10.4 8.5 13.0 10.4 31.2 11.8 8.6 2.4 0.5 4.3 1.4 0.1 30.3 30.7 37.7 33.6 34.0 30.0 -3.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 27.7 22.3 10.1 0.83 0.51 5.9 26.0 20.1 10.6 0.85 0.50 5.0 26.1 21.0 9.6 0.82 0.53 6.0 24.5 20.0 7.7 0.87 0.56 4.1 22.2 17.4 8.4 0.92 0.58 3.6 20.3 14.6 9.0 0.94 0.59 4.5 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 392 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 6.5 -0.9 7.6 -4.3 0.6 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 -0.3 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.9 -7.4 -2.8 -7.7 0.6 -1.1 0.02 0.11 0.01 0.08 0.9 -1.4 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 PT % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 29.5 22.8 11.8 28.7 22.9 10.5 28.7 22.4 10.8 28.6 22.4 11.3 27.8 21.8 10.3 31.6 24.4 13.9 Change 20122013 3.8 2.6 3.6 5.9 6.2 8.0 7.2 8.5 9.7 1.2 14.2 10.7 19.6 22.8 14.2 13.7 12.5 10.8 12.4 12.0 12.0 0 -1.7 11.0 10.6 74.3 77.5 82.4 74.2 77.6 80.2 2.6 5.9 67.5 64.9 19.5 19.3 17.1 18.3 16.4 18.1 1.7 -1.4 15.9 15.6 2.0 31.0 2.0 34.0 5.0 32.0 1.0 34.0 34.0 14.0 14.0 9.0 8.0 11.0 7.0 5.0 37.0 69.0 73.0 68.0 74.0 81.0 46.0 26.2 5.3 27.8 5.4 24.8 4.1 25.1 5.1 26.9 3.8 33.1 3.2 6.2 -0.6 6.9 -2.1 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 6.9 6.9 5.5 7.3 5.9 5.0 -0.9 -1.9 28.4 27.6 24.3 25.4 30.4 27.5 26.4 23.0 -3.32 -1.22 39.3 41.3 11.7 7.1 34.9 0.4 340 11.3 23.5 9.7 6.8 30.9 1.4 362 7.2 21.5 6.1 6.8 28.3 0.8 255 8.0 21.4 11.3 7.7 23.0 0.5 301 5.7 16.8 12.6 7.2 20.5 1.9 303 7.4 15.9 12.4 7.3 18.9 -0.2 0.1 -1.6 0.7 0.2 -16 10.5 6.7 12.0 8.8 17.7 1.4 1.8 -2.5 -5.8 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 393 Change 20082013 2.1 1.6 2.1 3.8 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 85,8 65,9 -19,9 Low income 81,7 66,6 -15,1 High income 85,2 47,4 -37,8 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 83,9 79,8 / 81,6 42 years career: average income Low / high income 103,8 102,3/97,4 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 72,5 58,7 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 72,6 59,3 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 67,7 42,1 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 65,9 / 65,9 58,7 / 58,7 76 / 57,6 67,7 / 51,3 63,7 -20,2 70,9 32,8 64 / 45,2 (-15,8/-36,4) 70,9 / 64,8 82,2 -21,6 -13,3 -25,6 -38,1 57,4 / 40,3 (-13,5/-24,5) 90,8 82,6 / 58,7 (-19,7/-38,7) 90,8 / 85,7 -13,9 39,1 -51,7 73 / 51,8 (-17,9/-34) 78 52,1 -25,9 65,5 46,2 -19,3 83,8 64,5 -19,3 70,7 57,4 -13,3 85,7 65,1 -20,6 72,4 57,9 -14,5 64,4 52,1 -12,3 54,4 46,4 -8,0 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 : : : 44,7 37,0 -7,7 56,9 48,2 -8,7 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS PT Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 59.1 57.6 6.7 5.5 76.2 82.4 16.9 20.3 1.1 48.3 1924.70 10.22 2009 58.3 56.4 6.8 5.5 76.5 82.6 17.1 20.5 3.3 47.7 1974.09 10.81 2010 59.3 56.6 7.1 5.7 76.7 82.8 17.1 20.6 2 49.1 2054.27 10.8 2011 60.7 58.6 7.8 6.3 77.3 83.8 17.8 21.6 1.4 49.7 1951.84 10.23 2012 64.5 62.6 9.9 9 77.3 83.6 17.6 21.3 3.3 48.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA). Note: break in time series for HLY indicator. 394 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS174 PT definition unit source link definition unit source link comment Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat http://nui.epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=lmhu_m&lang=en Unemployment benefit "Unemployment + social unemployment" beneficiaries thousands of recipients /benefits paid Institute for Informatics and Statistics of Social Security http://www4.seg-social.pt/estatisticas Entitlement to Unemployment Benefit for workers resident in national territory covered by the general social security scheme for employed depend on the following conditions: to be capable of and available for work; to be involuntarily unemployed; to be registered as a job seeker at the local Employment Office; to fulfill the qualifying period – to have completed, at least, 360 days with registered earnings within the 24 months immediately prior to unemployment situation. Regarding Social Unemployment Benefit, conditions are the same but it is also subject to means testing and it is granted in case workers have not completed the qualifying period required for UB: i) initial social unemployment benefit, to have completed at least 180 days with registered earnings within the 12 months prior to unemployment; ii) Subsequent social unemployment benefit, to have exhausted entitlement period for UB. 174 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 395 definition unit source link note comment definition unit source link comment comment Social assistance benefit/means-tested minimum income "Social assistance / Social Integration Income" beneficiaries thousands of recipients Source: Institute for Informatics and Statistics of Social Security http://www4.seg-social.pt/estatisticas Important changes were introduced in the Portuguese Means-Testing Scheme, firstly through Statutory Decree 70/2010 of 16 June 2010, and, more recently, through Statutory Decree 133/2012 of 27 June 2012, redefining non-contributory social benefits entitlement conditions, namely those concerning Social Integration Income (portuguese minimum income scheme). The benefit paid by Social Security corresponds to a differential between the individual’s income and a minimum income threshold taken as the baseline. This minimum income is indexed to IAS, an indexation mechanism for social supports that replaces the national minimum salary as a reference for calculating and adjusting pensions, benefits and contributions. Individuals and families who want to have access to this benefit, have to fulfil a number of conditions: legal place of residency in Portugal; aged 18 or over , availability for employment, occupational training or integration activities; not having earnings of one’s own or from the family superior to minimum income established by law. Disability benefit "Disability pension + Disability social pension" thousands of recipients Institute for Informatics and Statistics of Social Security http://www4.seg-social.pt/estatisticas Disability or Invalidity pension: is a monthly cash benefit designed to protect the Entitlement to Disability Benefit under the general social security scheme depends if an employee or a self-employed is considered to be in a situation of permanent incapacity to work. A worker is considered to be in a situation of relative incapacity when, due to a permanent incapacity, one in not able to earn more than one-third of the earning corresponding to the regular practice of their activity. A worker is considered to be in a situation of absolute incapacity when one has a permanent and definite incapacity for all kinds of jobs. Disability pension is not payable if the invalidity is the result of an accident at work or occupational disease or if the person is entitled to an old-age pension, and is determined according to the number of years of contributions, the average monthly earnings and the sustainability factor. Social disability pension is also subject to a means testing condition. 396 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 397 ROMANIA NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 580,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 398 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 RO AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 23.4 22.4 21.1 22.2 22.6 22.4 -0.2 -1.0 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 4988 4745 4522 4748 4824 4777 -1.0 -4.2 84877 83462 % of total pln 8.3 7.7 6.9 6.7 7.4 6.4 -1.0 -1.9 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 1413 1299 1176 1135 1215 1079 -11.2 -23.6 39644 40189 % of total pln 32.9 32.2 31.0 29.4 29.9 28.5 -1.4 -4.4 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 7023 6817 6643 6286 6391 6070 -5.0 -13.6 49673 48245 % of total pln 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.6 -0.4 -0.3 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 191 202 166 204 212 125 -41.0 -34.6 13552 13504 % of total pln 11.8 11.6 10.9 11.2 11.0 10.3 -0.7 -1.5 2.8 2.7 2456 2334 2393 2358 2202 -6.6 -12.9 14249 13558 1000 persons 2527 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 0.2 -0.5 1.8 1.8 521 429 357 378 372 407 9.4 -21.9 9240 9250 % of total pln 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 -0.1 -0.3 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 248 235 235 187 208 185 -11.1 -25.4 3391 3685 SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 399 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT RO Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate* Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 8.5 0.0 5.6 2.3 14.2 2009 -7.1 -2.0 6.5 2.0 17.0 2010 -0.8 -0.3 7.0 2.4 17.4 2011 1.1 -0.8 7.2 2.9 16.2 2012 0.6 1.3 6.8 3.0 15.2 2013 3.4 -0.1 7.1 3.2 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS; National Statistics Office). Note: Real GDP rowth - data revised corresponding with SEC 2010, data for year 2013 are semifinal; *Long term unemployment rate - recalculated with the usually resident population estimated to be comparable with the results of Census 2011 MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE RO Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 14.2 3.6 1.4 6.6 0.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 2009 17.0 4.2 1.6 8.0 0.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.2 2010 17.4 4.4 1.6 8.0 0.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.3 2011 16.2 4.1 1.5 7.9 0.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 2012 15.2 4.0 1.3 7.5 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 13.6 3.6 1.4 6.6 0.6 1.4 0.0 16.0 4.2 1.6 7.9 0.7 1.6 0.0 16.1 4.4 1.6 7.9 0.7 1.5 0.0 15.4 4.1 1.5 7.8 0.6 1.4 0.0 14.5 4.0 1.3 7.4 0.6 1.2 0.0 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS, National Statistics Office) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 400 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 RO Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.3 -3.8 -0.2 -1 80 399 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 44.2 23.4 1838 43.1 22.4 2056 41.4 21.1 2124 40.3 22.2 2213 41.7 22.6 2157 40.4 22.4 2237 3860 32.9 4318 32.2 4459 31.0 4648 29.4 4530 29.9 4698 28.5 168 -1.4 838 -4.4 8.3 7.7 7.4 18.2 30.9 19.9 -1 -1.9 32.0 18.2 6.7 16.7 31.8 17.9 6.4 32.3 23.4 6.9 18.2 30.6 16.2 32.6 20.4 1.7 0.5 23.8 7.0 18.7 23.0 6.7 15.3 23.3 6.0 15.0 23.7 6.2 9.9 19.3 6.3 16.5 19.4 6.6 15.4 0.13 0.3 -1.1 401 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 0.3 -3 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 -4.36 -0.4 -3.3 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 RO Children (0-17) RO Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -3.7 -2.7 -2.5 -0.8 -3.8 -5.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 51.2 32.9 39.2 52.0 32.9 40.3 48.7 31.3 36.7 49.1 32.9 35.8 52.2 34.6 37.9 48.5 32.1 34.1 6.3 38.6 5.6 36.7 4.3 35.4 4.6 34.7 5.1 33.6 4.8 38.2 -0.3 4.6 24.2 73.9 21.9 73.4 20.6 70.0 22.0 70.1 18.0 72.6 19.8 71.3 1.7 -1.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 44.2 22.9 32.4 42.7 23.2 32.6 42.1 23.9 31.6 44.4 28.2 32.5 45.6 28.9 32.1 46.8 30.2 31.0 6.7 23.3 5.7 13.4 17.0 5.8 24.9 6.4 16.5 14.3 5.9 23.2 6.9 20.0 15.3 5.6 30.7 7.4 20.9 9.7 5.9 31.8 7.0 20.4 14.8 5.4 29.8 7.3 21.2 16.3 402 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 -1.5 -0.4 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 -4.4 -2.6 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.2 2.6 1.3 7.3 -1.1 -1.4 -0.5 -2.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 -1.3 6.5 1.6 7.8 -0.7 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 RO % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) RO % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.8 -1.6 0.5 1.5 -0.7 -2.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 41.0 20.0 29.8 40.5 19.8 29.6 39.7 19.2 29.0 39.0 21.0 27.7 40.2 21.0 27.9 39.4 21.5 27.2 8.9 16.8 31.8 58.5 17.4 8.4 17.3 32.9 57.0 14.7 7.6 17.0 32.0 57.7 14.6 7.3 18.6 33.3 56.7 9.7 8.1 18.9 33.5 53.4 15.9 6.9 17.7 33.3 54.6 15.0 -1.2 -1.2 -0.2 1.2 -0.9 26.5 25.0 26.2 25.8 21.1 20.1 -1.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 49.2 26.0 38.9 0.85 0.49 25.0 43.1 21.0 33.8 0.93 0.55 24.4 39.9 16.7 32.4 0.97 0.65 23.8 35.3 14.1 28.6 1.01 0.64 23.7 35.7 15.4 28.6 1.01 0.67 21.5 35.0 15.0 27.5 1.04 0.65 23.4 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 403 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 -2.0 0.9 1.5 -3.9 -2.4 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 -6.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.7 -14.2 -0.4 -11.0 -1.1 -11.4 0.03 0.19 -0.02 0.16 1.9 -1.6 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 RO % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 51.2 32.9 39.2 52.0 32.9 40.3 48.7 31.3 36.7 49.1 32.9 35.8 52.2 34.6 37.9 48.5 32.1 34.1 Change 20122013 -3.7 -2.5 -3.8 6.3 5.6 4.3 4.6 5.1 4.8 -0.3 28.6 25.0 31.2 Change 20082013 -2.7 -0.8 -5.1 -1.5 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 19.5 19.6 19.8 21.9 23.2 20.5 -2.7 1 11.0 10.6 82.3 87.9 63.0 76.5 73.1 70.9 -2.2 -11.4 67.5 64.9 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.7 32.6 30.3 -2.3 0.8 15.9 15.6 6.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 11.0 4.0 14.0 14.0 37.0 44.0 49.0 30.0 48.0 37.0 17.0 19.0 17.0 11.0 11.0 46.0 38.6 3.0 36.7 2.9 35.4 2.5 34.7 2.6 33.6 2.1 38.2 2.2 4.6 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 6.0 5.9 5.3 4.9 4.2 4.6 0.4 -1.4 28.4 27.6 24.2 21.9 20.6 22.0 18.0 19.8 1.74 -4.44 39.3 41.3 17.5 9.0 15.9 1.1 2434 45.8 73.9 14.5 9.7 16.6 1.4 2250 44.9 73.4 15.2 9.9 18.4 2.6 2078 41.1 70.0 10.7 10.5 17.5 2.3 1850 38.5 70.1 18.2 10.3 17.4 2.1 1812 36.9 72.6 17.0 10.1 17.3 -1.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 1.1 1.4 10.5 6.7 12.0 35.5 71.3 -1.4 -1.3 -10.3 -2.6 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 404 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 70,7 45 -25,7 Low income 55,2 45 -10,2 High income 85,3 33,3 -52 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 69,2 53,6 / 84 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 51,4 31,5 (100/0/0)* (75/25/0)* 35,9 31,5 (100/0/0)* (75/25/0)* 67,8 23,7 (100/0/0)* (75/25/0)* 43,9 / 46,2 30,8 / 32,4 53 / 38,5 37,2 / 27 43,3 -25,9 49,9 30,4 43,3 / 32,3 (-10,3/-51,7) 34,2 / 66,2 -19,9 -4,4 -44,1 -19,5 30,4 / 22,8 (-3,8/-43,4) 72,3 66,5 -5,8 53,2 47,1 -6,1 56,8 / 86,9 67,2 / 47,3 10,4/-39,6 37,2 / 68,2 47,1 / 35,4 9,9/-32,8 64,2 32,9 -31,3 44,4 23 -21,4 61,4 43,3 -18,1 42,4 30,3 -12,1 69,3 42,4 -26,9 50 29,8 -20,2 58,7 33,4 -25,3 47,5 23,4 -24,1 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 38,7 28,1 -10,6 44,7 37,0 -7,7 41,6 29,8 -11,8 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS RO Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 60.2 62.8 7.8 7.9 69.7 77.2 14 17.2 10.8 69.3 657.06 5.44 2009 59.8 61.7 7.2 7.1 69.8 77.4 14 17.2 8.5 70.2 644.07 5.66 2010 57.5 57.5 5.9 5 70.1 77.6 14 17.2 10.8 70.7 727.44 5.95 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA, 405 2011 57.4 57 5.4 4.7 71.1 78.2 14.7 17.7 11.9 69.4 709.39 5.6 2012 57.7 57.7 5.9 5.1 71 78.1 14.5 17.7 10.7 70.3 747.97 5.56 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS175 RO definition unit source link definition unit source link Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons unemployed - seasonally adjusted Source: Eurostat http://nui.epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=lmhu_m&lang=en Unemployment indemnity Number of unemployment indemnity recipients (indemnizaţie de şomaj), according to the Law No. 76/2002 regarding the unemployment insurance system and employment stimulation, with subsequent amendments Thousands of persons beneficiaries of unemployment indemnity National Agency for Employment, Romania www.anofm.ro / Statistics 175 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 406 Social assistance benefit/means-tested minimum income definition unit source link comment definition unit source link definition unit source link comment The recipients of social assistance benefit (ajutor social) are families earning less then a certain amount set depending on the family structure, as to the Law no.416/2001 on guaranteed minimum income with subsequent amendments. The Law provides a set of assets that may exclude some families from benefitting of social income. The social assistance benefit is equal to the difference between the amount set by the Law and the familiy income. Thousands of families recipients of social benefit for ensuring the minimum guaranteed income Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Protection and Elderly, Romania http://www.mmuncii.ro/j33/index.php/ro/transparenta/statistici/date-statistice The upward trend of social assistance recipients is due to the increase of the minimum guaranteed income by 8.5%, starting with July 2013, and by 4,5% starting with January 2014, according to Goverment Emergency Ordinance No. 42/2013. Invalidity pension A person who is certified as being incapable for suitable fulltime or regular part-time employment due to a serious disease or bodily or mental impairment is entitled to an Invalidity pension (pensie de invaliditate), subject to the relative contribution conditions, as to the Law no. 263/2010 on the Unitary System of Public Pensions, with subsequent amendments. thousands of invalidity pensioners National House of Public Pensions, Romania http://www.cnpas.org / Social Indicators Disability benefit Definition of persons with disabilities: persons which, due to social environment inadequate to their physical, sensory, psychic, mental and/or associated impairment, are totally prevented or have limited access with equal chances to the society life, needing protection measures for social integration and inclusion, as to the Law no.448/2006 on social protection and promotion of the persons with disabilities rights, with subsequent amendments. thousands recipients of complementary personal budget for persons with severe, major or average disability (buget personal complementar pentru persoane cu handicap grav, accentuat sau mediu) Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Protection and Elderly; National Agency for Social Payments and Inspection, Romania http://www.mmuncii.ro/j3/index.php/ro/transparenta/statistici/buletin-statistic Note: one person may receive simultaneously the disability benefit and invalidity pension 407 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 408 SLOVENIA NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 40,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 409 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 SI AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 12.3 11.3 12.7 13.6 13.5 14.5 1.0 2.2 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 241 223 254 273 271 291 7.4 20.7 84877 83462 % of total pln 6.7 5.6 7.0 7.6 7.5 8.0 0.5 1.3 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 105 88 111 121 118 125 5.9 19.0 39644 40189 % of total pln 6.7 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.6 6.7 0.1 0.0 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 130 121 119 122 133 134 0.8 3.1 49673 48245 % of total pln 1.9 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.9 2.0 0.1 0.1 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 37 26 41 46 38 41 7.9 10.8 13552 13504 % of total pln 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.2 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 32 28 31 29 35 35 0.0 9.4 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 0.2 0.4 1.8 1.8 21 18 21 24 27 30 11.1 42.9 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 5 4 3 6 3 3 0.0 -40.0 3391 3685 AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 410 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT SI Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 3.4 2.6 4.4 1.9 20.9 2009 -7.9 -1.8 5.9 1.8 23.7 2010 1.3 -2.2 7.3 3.2 24.4 2011 0.7 -1.6 8.2 3.6 24.6 2012 -2.5 -0.8 8.9 4.3 24.9 2013 -1.1 -2.0 10.1 5.2 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE SI Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 20.9 7.0 1.6 8.0 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.4 2009 23.7 7.8 1.8 9.2 1.7 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.5 2010 24.4 7.9 1.8 9.6 1.7 2.2 0.7 0.0 0.6 2011 24.6 7.8 1.7 9.8 1.7 2.2 0.8 0.0 0.6 2012 24.9 8.0 1.6 10.1 1.7 2.1 0.8 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 19.1 7.0 1.6 7.9 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.1 21.7 7.8 1.7 9.1 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.1 22.4 7.9 1.7 9.5 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.2 22.5 7.8 1.6 9.7 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.2 23.0 8.0 1.5 10.0 1.7 0.9 0.8 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 411 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 SI Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.8 1.9 1 2.2 8 284 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 18.5 12.3 8287 17.1 11.3 8599 18.3 12.7 8009 19.3 13.6 8364 19.6 13.5 8563 20.4 14.5 8571 17403 6.7 18057 6.1 16819 5.9 17565 6.1 17982 6.6 18000 6.7 18 0.1 6.7 7.7 19.3 12.3 5.6 7.0 20.2 10.2 7.0 6.9 20.2 12.1 7.6 7.5 19.9 13.0 7.5 6.1 19.1 13.5 8.0 7.5 20.4 16.2 46.5 3.4 4.4 48.6 3.2 3.9 47.5 3.4 4.3 43.8 3.5 4.7 46.4 3.4 5.2 2.0 -0.2 -0.6 0.2 -4.2 412 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 597 0 9.9 9.6 0.5 1.4 1.3 2.7 1.3 -0.2 1.1 3.9 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 10.7 42.7 3.6 6.0 -3.74 0.2 0.8 -3.83 0.2 1.6 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.2 3.0 -3.2 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 SI Children (0-17) SI Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.1 2.2 1.2 3.1 0.1 0.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.3 11.6 5.2 15.1 11.2 5.4 15.2 12.6 5.1 17.3 14.7 5.3 16.4 13.5 5.9 17.5 14.7 6.0 3.7 16.3 2.5 20.2 3.4 20.6 4.4 19.7 3.2 17.2 4.0 20.4 0.8 3.2 0.3 4.1 50.4 48.4 53.7 47.0 51.4 44.3 45.4 23.4 47.7 21.9 45.2 20.8 -2.5 -1.1 -5.3 -27.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17.1 9.7 7.7 14.0 7.7 6.7 16.0 10.0 6.2 16.5 10.3 6.6 18.5 11.5 7.7 20.4 14.2 6.9 5.2 4.5 4.5 7.9 2.6 3.5 2.8 5.6 9.2 2.5 5.1 3.6 5.9 8.9 3.3 5.5 3.4 5.9 8.8 2.7 5.9 6.1 7.1 11.5 3.0 6.7 7.5 7.3 11.5 5.6 413 Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.9 3.3 2.7 4.5 -0.8 -0.8 0.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.6 1.5 3.0 2.8 3.6 3.0 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 SI % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) SI % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.9 2.6 0.8 2.5 -0.1 -0.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 18.0 10.5 6.9 16.2 9.2 6.2 18.1 11.0 6.1 18.7 11.7 6.2 19.7 12.2 6.9 20.6 13.0 6.8 7.7 5.1 20.2 41.1 4.2 6.5 4.8 20.9 39.7 3.6 8.0 5.3 20.5 36.6 4.1 8.6 6.0 20.1 17.8 4.5 8.8 6.5 19.5 17.6 5.2 9.2 7.1 21.2 16.4 5.9 0.4 0.6 1.7 -1.2 0.7 1.5 2.0 1.0 -24.7 1.7 49.0 52.1 49.8 45.8 49.0 44.9 -4.0 -4.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24.4 21.3 7.4 0.84 0.44 21.7 23.3 20.0 6.5 0.86 0.45 20.0 22.8 20.2 6.3 0.87 0.45 16.3 24.2 20.9 6.8 0.87 0.47 5.7 22.8 19.6 6.6 0.87 0.47 6.0 23.0 20.5 6.7 0.87 0.46 6.0 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) Note: Break in series in 2011 for the ―Overcrowding rate‖ indicator 414 Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.2 -1.4 0.9 -0.8 0.1 -0.7 0.00 0.03 -0.01 0.02 0.0 -15.7 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 SI % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.3 11.6 5.2 15.1 11.2 5.4 15.2 12.6 5.1 17.3 14.7 5.3 16.4 13.5 5.9 17.5 14.7 6.0 Change 20122013 1.1 1.2 0.1 3.7 2.5 3.4 4.4 3.2 4.0 0.8 6.4 5.7 5.3 9.4 5.0 6.5 5.6 5.3 5.4 6.3 6.4 77.9 77.5 88.8 87.5 9.0 9.5 9.9 4.0 27.0 4.0 27.0 13.0 Change 20082013 2.2 3.1 0.8 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 0.3 9.1 9.3 1.5 0.1 12.8 7.2 0.8 1.6 11.0 10.6 87.4 94.4 7 16.5 67.5 64.9 11.3 11.1 11.4 0.3 2.4 15.9 15.6 4.0 33.0 3.0 34.0 2.0 36.0 14.0 14.0 16.0 14.0 11.0 11.0 37.0 72.0 73.0 77.0 81.0 81.0 46.0 16.3 4.8 20.2 20.6 7.6 19.7 17.2 7.8 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.4 4.1 4.4 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 12.0 12.1 10.5 12.1 1.6 4.4 28.4 27.6 7.7 50.4 53.7 51.4 45.4 47.7 45.2 -2.52 -5.28 39.3 41.3 3.3 3.7 5.1 0.1 52 19.8 48.4 3.4 3.7 5.3 0.0 52 21.8 47.0 4.0 3.7 5.0 0.2 56 19.5 44.3 4.4 3.5 4.2 0.1 64 12.1 23.4 4.3 5.0 4.4 5.7 3.8 3.9 1.4 -1.2 -0.5 2.4 0.1 -1.2 10.5 6.7 12.0 36 11.4 21.9 9.6 20.8 -1.8 -1.1 -10.2 -27.6 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data). Note : Break in series in 2011 for the ―Overcrowding rate‖ indicator 415 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 59,2 53,7 -5,5 Low income 88,6 89,1 0,5 High income 47,7 42,1 -5,6 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 40,5 36,7 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 60,7 61 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 40,5 36,7 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 53,7 / 53,7 36,7 / 36,7 53,7 / 53,7 36,7 / 36,7 -3,8 0,3 -3,8 58,5 48,8 -9,7 40,1 40,3 0,2 88,6 / 42,1 89,1 / 42 0,5 / 0 60,7 / 36,7 61 / 36,7 0,3 / 0 66,6 62,2 -4,4 45,6 42,6 -3,0 88,6 / 55,1 89,1 / 50,7 0,5 / -4,4 60,7 / 45,6 61 / 42,6 0,3 / -3 55,5 53,7 -1,8 38,0 36,7 -1,3 58,5 53,7 -4,8 40 40 0,0 59,2 53,7 -5,5 40,5 36,7 -3,8 58,5 42,6 -15,9 40,1 40,3 0,2 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 19,2 17,3 -2,0 44,7 37,0 -7,7 : : : 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050). Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions. Projections with base year 2010 no longer relevant because pension reform in 2013 significantly changed some facts. HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS SI Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 59.5 60.8 9.2 9.4 75.5 82.6 16.4 20.5 0.2 58.8 1880.59 8.35 2009 60.6 61.5 9.3 9.9 75.9 82.7 16.4 20.5 0.2 59.7 1850.64 9.23 2010 53.4 54.6 6.6 7.2 76.4 83.1 16.8 21 0.1 59.6 1794.83 8.9 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 416 2011 54 53.8 6.2 6.9 76.8 83.3 16.9 21.1 0.1 60.4 1835.51 8.86 2012 56.5 55.6 7.3 6.9 77.1 83.3 17.1 21.1 0.1 63.1 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS176 176 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 417 SI definition unit source definition unit source definition unit source Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment benefit Unemployment benefit is an insurance based benefit that can be claimed by the unemployed who was employed (insured) before for at least 9 months in the last 24 months and did not lose the job by own fault. Statutory basis for unemployment insurance is Labour Market Regulation Act (Official gazette RS, no. 80/2010, 40/2012-ZUJF, 21/2013 and 63/2013). thousands of recipients Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities Social assistance benefit/means-tested minimum income Financial social assistance is a means-tested social benefit which acts as a final safety-net, intended to cover the basic living costs. Financial social assistance is defined by the Social Benefits Act (Official Gazette RS no. 61/2010, 40/2011, 110/2011, 40/2012, 14/2013) and the Exercising the Right to Public Funds Act (Official Gazette RS, no. 62/2010, 40/2011, 40/2012, 14/2013). thousands of recipients Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities The number given is the number of individual recipients (including children). In the structure of households receiving the financial social assistance, there are around 75% single households (single people), around 4% couples and around 21% families (with children). comment definition unit source Disability benefit Disability benefits beneficiaries – Number of unemployed persons receiving disability benefits. Included are recipients of disability benefit, temporary benefit, partial disability pension/partial benefit, benefit for occupational rehabilitation, before and during retraining benefit and before employment benefit. thousands of recipients Pension and Disability Insurance Institute of Slovenia 418 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 419 SLOVAKIA NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduce the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 170,000 Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 420 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 SK % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 10.9 11.0 12.0 13.0 13.2 12.8 -0.4 1.9 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 588 594 651 700 716 694 -3.1 18.0 84877 83462 % of total pln 5.2 5.6 7.9 7.7 7.2 7.6 0.4 2.4 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 225 243 349 331 312 328 5.1 45.8 39644 40189 % of total pln 11.8 11.1 11.4 10.6 10.5 10.2 -0.3 -1.6 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 636 601 621 571 565 554 -1.9 -12.9 49673 48245 % of total pln 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.6 0.3 0.7 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 47 40 68 83 72 85 18.1 80.9 13552 13504 % of total pln 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 -0.1 -0.4 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 120 112 104 104 105 96 -8.6 -20.0 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.3 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.9 0.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 72 104 147 135 144 155 7.6 115.3 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 26 17 38 34 19 14 -26.3 -46.2 3391 3685 AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 421 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT SK Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 5.8 3.2 9.6 6.7 15.6 2009 -4.9 -2.0 12.1 6.5 18.3 2010 4.4 -1.5 14.5 9.3 18.1 2011 3.0 1.8 13.7 9.3 17.7 2012 1.8 0.1 14.0 9.4 17.9 2013 0.9 -0.8 14.2 10.0 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE SK Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 15.6 5.1 1.4 5.8 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 2009 18.3 5.8 1.5 6.8 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.0 0.4 2010 18.1 5.5 1.6 6.8 1.0 1.8 1.0 0.0 0.5 2011 17.7 5.4 1.6 6.8 0.9 1.8 0.8 0.0 0.4 2012 17.9 5.5 1.6 7.0 0.9 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 14.8 5.1 1.3 5.5 0.8 1.4 0.6 17.4 5.8 1.4 6.5 1.0 1.7 1.0 17.2 5.5 1.4 6.5 0.9 1.7 1.0 16.8 5.4 1.4 6.5 0.9 1.7 0.8 17.0 5.5 1.4 6.7 0.9 1.7 0.7 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 422 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 SK Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 1.9 -138 1683 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20.6 10.9 4058 19.6 11.0 4694 20.6 12.0 5016 20.6 13.0 5385 20.5 13.2 5879 19.8 12.8 5741 8521 11.8 9858 11.1 10534 11.4 11309 10.6 12346 10.5 12055 10.2 -291 -0.3 3534 -1.6 5.2 4.9 18.1 10.9 5.6 5.4 23.2 7.8 7.9 6.0 25.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 22.8 7.0 7.2 8.6 20.5 6.0 7.6 0.4 2.4 24.1 7.4 3.6 1.4 40.8 3.4 5.6 35.7 3.6 9.4 39.4 3.8 7.6 33.3 3.8 8.4 34.0 3.7 8.4 36.3 3.6 8.3 5.1 1.2 2.6 -1.8 -2.1 1.9 423 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 6 -3.5 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 2.32 -0.1 -0.1 -4.44 0.2 2.7 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 4.0 -3.2 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 SK Children (0-17) SK Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.1 1.2 -1.6 3.6 1.1 0.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24.3 16.7 12.6 23.7 16.8 12.7 25.3 18.8 13.5 26.0 21.2 12.4 26.6 21.9 11.9 25.5 20.3 13.0 4.4 24.0 5.4 25.8 8.1 33.8 7.3 25.5 7.2 24.0 8.4 29.8 1.2 5.8 4.0 5.8 38.2 54.4 30.3 51.6 35.8 53.2 28.6 52.6 29.8 49.6 33.7 50.8 3.9 1.2 -4.5 -3.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 21.6 11.9 13.6 21.1 13.3 13.0 22.8 14.7 13.9 22.8 14.8 11.2 21.8 14.4 10.9 23.0 15.1 12.6 3.4 4.6 6.2 14.4 1.8 3.9 3.8 8.6 16.6 7.0 5.5 4.1 10.4 18.6 6.4 5.1 5.5 10.1 18.3 7.5 5.2 5.6 10.4 18.1 6.9 5.9 3.3 10.4 17.8 6.5 424 Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.2 1.4 0.7 3.2 1.7 -1.0 0.7 -2.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 2.5 -1.3 4.2 3.4 4.7 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 SK % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) SK % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.5 0.1 -0.2 2.6 -0.4 -1.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 19.3 9.5 10.8 18.5 9.6 10.6 20.2 11.2 11.0 20.6 12.4 10.3 19.9 12.3 10.1 19.4 12.1 9.7 5.4 5.8 19.1 44.9 4.1 5.6 5.2 24.2 41.5 8.4 7.9 5.7 26.5 41.7 7.1 7.8 6.3 24.2 41.3 8.0 7.2 6.2 21.2 40.3 7.4 7.3 5.8 24.4 41.5 7.7 0.1 -0.4 3.2 1.2 0.3 43.5 39.2 41.4 34.7 35.6 37.3 1.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 21.9 9.9 15.3 0.79 0.54 18.4 19.7 10.8 11.7 0.81 0.55 15.2 16.7 7.7 11.1 0.83 0.61 14.9 14.5 6.3 9.7 0.86 0.62 14.8 16.3 7.8 10.8 0.81 0.56 15.1 13.6 6.0 9.2 0.90 0.61 15.5 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 1.9 0.0 5.3 -3.4 3.6 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 -6.1 35.0 36.2 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -2.7 -8.3 -1.8 -3.9 -1.6 -6.1 0.09 0.11 0.05 0.07 0.4 -2.9 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) Note: ratio indicators are not expressed in %; all changes are in percentage points' difference with the exception of the poverty threshold, S80/S20 425 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 SK % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24.3 16.7 12.6 23.7 16.8 12.7 25.3 18.8 13.5 26.0 21.2 12.4 26.6 21.9 11.9 25.5 20.3 13.0 Change 20122013 -1.1 -1.6 1.1 4.4 5.4 8.1 7.3 7.2 8.4 1.2 9.4 4.7 9.3 16.3 16.3 7.6 7.1 7.8 9.3 8.6 7.9 -0.7 0.3 11.0 10.6 82.3 88.9 85.3 86.1 93.8 94.4 0.6 12.1 67.5 64.9 13.7 12.7 13.0 16.1 16.4 13.4 -3 -0.3 15.9 15.6 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 14.0 14.0 7.0 13.0 8.0 13.0 12.0 37.0 53.0 63.0 64.0 62.0 59.0 46.0 24.0 5.2 25.8 33.8 3.4 25.5 3.4 24.0 2.4 29.8 2.7 5.8 0.3 5.8 -2.5 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 4.8 5.1 3.9 4.3 0.4 -3.1 28.4 27.6 7.4 Change 20082013 1.2 3.6 0.4 4 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 38.2 30.3 35.8 28.6 29.8 33.7 3.85 -4.49 39.3 41.3 4.8 5.5 6.0 0.3 336 8.6 54.4 10.0 5.0 4.9 0.5 346 6.7 51.6 8.9 5.4 4.7 0.6 344 6.8 53.2 10.2 5.9 5.1 1.1 300 8.3 52.6 10.9 5.7 5.3 0.7 321 8.6 49.6 11.0 5.5 6.4 0.1 -0.2 1.1 6.2 0 0.4 10.5 6.7 12.0 7.9 50.8 -0.7 1.2 -0.7 -3.6 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 426 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 74,6 65,4 -9,2 Low income 78,2 64,6 -13,6 High income 56,2 50,7 -5,5 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 42 years career: average income Low / high income Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2050 Difference 58,7 51,3 (100/0/0)* (52/48/0)* 65 53,5 (100/0/0)* (54/46/0)* 42,7 38 (100/0/0)* (51/49/0)* 60,8 / 70,7 47,7 / 55,5 72,9 / 59,6 57,2 / 46,8 -7,5 -11,5 -4,7 63,8 58,2 -5,6 50,2 45,6 -4,6 66,9 / 48 57,5 / 45,1 (-9,4/-2,9) 55,6 / 36,4 47,6 / 33,8 (-8/-2,6) 86,4 73,1 -13,3 68 57,3 -10,7 90,5 / 64,9 10 years after retirement Gross2010 72,2 / 56,6 (-18,3/-8,3) 75,3 / 49,3 59,7 / 42,5 (-15,5/-6,8) 70 53,8 -16,2 54,2 41,9 -12,3 52,1 53,6 1,5 41 42 1,0 53,6 51 -2,6 42,2 40 -2,2 56 47,6 -8,4 44,1 37,3 -6,8 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 43,7 29,7 -14,1 44,7 37,0 -7,7 50,7 40,2 -10,5 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS SK Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 52.1 52.6 3 2.7 70.8 79 13.8 17.8 1.3 59.5 1502.45 8.02 2009 52.4 52.6 3.5 2.9 71.4 79.1 14.1 18 1.7 61.9 1589.13 9.15 2010 52.4 52.1 3.3 2.8 71.7 79.3 14 18 1.7 63.6 1672.62 8.99 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 427 2011 52.1 52.3 3.5 2.9 72.3 79.8 14.5 18.4 2.2 63.2 1522.64 7.96 2012 53.4 53.1 3.5 3.1 72.5 79.9 14.6 18.5 2.2 65.6 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS177 177 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 428 SK definition unit source link comment definition unit source link comment definition unit source link comment definition unit source link comment Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted eurostat Unemployment benefit Unemployment benefit recipients thousands of recipients Social Insurance Agency http://www.socpoist.sk/pocet-poberatelov-davok-v-nezamestnanosti/1662s The new softer eligibility criteria on unemployment benefit have come into effect since 1 September 2010. The minimum necessary condition of unemployment insurance decreased from 3 years from the last four years into 2 years from the last three years. This change also contibuted to the year-onyear growth of the number of recipients from the second half of Year 2011 and till the end of the first quarter of Year 2012, but wihtout any dramatic changes. The latest trend is positive with year-on-year decline of the number of recipients in Year 2013 (Apr-Dec) and in Year 2014 (Jan-Sept). Social assistance benefit social assistance benefit thousands of recipients Centre Offiice of Labour, Social Affairs and Familly Social Assistance Benefit: Recipients are defined as recipients of benefits. In the system of assistance in material need (social assistance) we are talking about the recipient, which is the range of jointly assessed persons, i.e. individual, family with children, families without children, etc. This means that for one recipient of assistance in material need may be more of jointly assessed persons. In Year 2014 is evident slight decrease in number of the recipients of material need based on changes in the system of assistance in material need applicable from 1 January 2014. Disability benefit Disability Benefits recipients thousands of recipients Social Insurance Agency http://www.socpoist.sk/pocet-vyplacanych-dochodkov--v-mesiacoch-/3150s The number of recipients are without disability benefits from youth ("invalidi z mladosti") which are funded by state budget. The new lighter conditions on disability benefit have come into effect since 1 January 2010 (the minimum pension period on invalidity benefit is required from all career, not only from last 10 years). This change also contibuted to the year-on-year slightly increased of the number of recipients in Year 2011, Year 2012 and Year 2013, but without any dramatic changes. The trend is continuing in Year 2014 (Jan-Sept). 429 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 430 FINLAND NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION 770,000 persons living at risk of poverty or social exclusion, equivalent to an absolute decrease by 140,000 persons Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 431 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 FI AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 13.6 13.8 13.1 13.7 13.2 11.8 -1.4 -1.8 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 709 725 692 725 704 632 -10.2 -10.9 84877 83462 % of total pln 7.5 8.4 9.3 10.0 9.3 9.0 -0.3 1.5 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 296 329 364 389 361 351 -2.8 18.6 39644 40189 % of total pln 3.5 2.8 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.5 -0.4 -1.0 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 181 148 150 170 156 132 -15.4 -27.1 49673 48245 % of total pln 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.3 2.7 -0.6 0.3 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 127 151 170 178 175 145 -17.1 14.2 13552 13504 % of total pln 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 51 29 30 33 27 24 -11.1 -52.9 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 1.8 1.8 39 59 49 46 41 33 -19.5 -15.4 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 18 18 19 30 22 27 22.7 50.0 3391 3685 SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 432 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT FI Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 0.7 2.2 6.4 1.2 25.4 2009 -8.3 -2.4 8.2 1.4 29.5 2010 3.0 -0.7 8.4 2.0 29.7 2011 2.6 1.3 7.8 1.7 29.2 2012 -1.4 0.9 7.7 1.6 30.4 2013 -1.3 -1.5 8.2 1.7 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE FI Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 25.4 6.8 3.2 8.8 0.9 2.9 1.8 0.4 0.6 2009 29.5 7.6 3.6 10.4 1.0 3.3 2.4 0.5 0.7 2010 29.7 7.5 3.6 10.7 1.0 3.3 2.4 0.5 0.7 2011 29.2 7.5 3.5 10.8 0.9 3.3 2.1 0.5 0.8 2012 30.4 7.7 3.5 11.5 0.9 3.4 2.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 24.3 6.8 3.2 8.8 0.9 2.9 1.5 0.0 0.3 28.3 7.6 3.6 10.4 1.0 3.3 2.0 0.0 0.4 28.4 7.5 3.6 10.7 1.0 3.3 2.0 0.0 0.4 27.9 7.5 3.5 10.8 0.9 3.2 1.6 0.0 0.4 28.9 7.7 3.5 11.5 0.9 3.3 1.6 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 433 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 FI Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.8 324 1537 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17.4 13.6 9933 16.9 13.8 10421 16.9 13.1 10327 17.9 13.7 10760 17.2 13.2 11146 16.0 11.8 11470 20860 3.5 21884 2.8 21686 2.8 22596 3.2 23406 2.9 24086 2.5 680 -0.4 7.5 6.8 15.7 13.6 8.4 6.5 15.1 13.0 9.3 7.7 13.8 12.0 10.0 7.5 13.5 12.3 9.3 7.4 15.0 11.6 9.0 7.0 15.0 10.7 50.2 3.8 4.7 47.3 3.7 4.4 51.5 3.6 4.2 50.0 3.7 4.4 50.9 3.7 4.5 2.3 0.8 2.6 1.0 -0.3 434 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 3226 -1 9.9 9.6 -0.3 -0.4 0 -0.9 1.5 0.2 -0.7 -2.9 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 10.7 55.3 3.6 4.9 4.37 -0.1 0.4 5.12 -0.2 0.2 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -0.5 -0.2 -2.8 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 FI Children (0-17) FI Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.9 -2.1 -1.8 -2.7 -1.0 -1.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.1 12.0 3.1 14.0 12.1 2.5 14.2 11.4 2.3 16.1 11.8 3.2 14.9 11.1 2.8 13.0 9.3 1.8 4.9 15.5 5.8 15.0 5.9 11.4 7.6 10.5 5.9 12.9 6.1 13.4 0.2 0.5 1.2 -2.1 59.6 4.5 56.5 5.0 61.6 5.1 60.9 5.8 63.0 5.7 68.2 7.1 5.2 1.4 8.6 2.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 30.0 26.2 6.1 28.7 26.2 4.8 30.9 26.8 4.5 30.5 26.5 4.5 29.4 24.9 5.1 28.0 22.5 5.0 7.6 12.5 8.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 5.9 10.9 12.9 9.1 12.5 8.7 10.6 12.5 9.1 10.1 7.9 10.1 11.7 9.5 10.4 8.9 9.8 11.8 9.2 10.0 7.6 10.3 12.6 10.6 435 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.4 -2.0 -2.4 -3.7 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.4 -4.9 1.5 2.7 0.5 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 FI % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) FI % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 -0.6 0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 16.5 11.8 3.7 16.2 12.2 3.1 17.1 12.3 3.3 18.0 12.8 3.5 17.3 12.4 3.4 16.7 11.3 3.1 8.4 5.1 19.2 6.1 4.9 9.3 3.7 19.2 6.4 5.0 10.6 3.7 17.4 6.7 4.8 10.9 3.9 17.9 7.2 5.1 10.6 3.8 18.3 6.7 5.2 10.1 3.8 18.9 7.6 5.2 -0.5 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.7 -1.3 -0.3 1.5 0.3 54.1 50.8 53.8 52.9 53.4 57.8 4.5 3.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 23.9 22.5 3.2 0.72 0.49 6.2 23.1 22.1 2.2 0.73 0.48 5.0 19.5 18.3 1.7 0.78 0.50 5.1 19.8 18.9 2.1 0.78 0.50 4.9 19.5 18.4 1.5 0.78 0.49 4.1 16.8 16.1 1.1 0.78 0.49 4.4 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 436 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -2.7 -7.1 -2.3 -6.4 -0.4 -2.1 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.3 -1.8 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 FI % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.1 12.0 3.1 14.0 12.1 2.5 14.2 11.4 2.3 16.1 11.8 3.2 14.9 11.1 2.8 13.0 9.3 1.8 Change 20122013 -1.9 -1.8 -1 4.9 5.8 5.9 7.6 5.9 6.1 0.2 3.9 2.1 9.1 4.1 3.2 4.4 5.4 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.7 63.1 74.8 68.1 62.9 9.1 7.9 7.6 5.0 21.0 6.0 21.0 20.0 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 1.2 9.1 9.3 1.2 0.5 12.8 3.4 -0.3 -2 11.0 10.6 63.2 54.4 -8.8 -8.7 67.5 64.9 7.5 7.7 6.3 -1.4 -2.8 15.9 15.6 8.0 20.0 6.0 20.0 7.0 22.0 14.0 14.0 20.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 37.0 58.0 57.0 56.0 57.0 57.0 46.0 15.5 9.0 11.4 8.7 13.4 10.4 0.5 1.4 -2.1 1.4 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 12.3 10.5 9.8 2.2 13.9 12.9 9.0 12.7 15.0 8.8 2.0 12.1 12.8 14.9 2.1 2.2 28.4 27.6 59.6 56.5 61.6 60.9 63.0 68.2 5.15 8.55 39.3 41.3 3.8 5.3 9.8 0.2 157 0.4 4.5 3.2 6.3 9.9 1.2 158 0.6 5.0 3.4 4.9 10.3 1.0 140 0.9 5.1 2.6 4.3 9.8 3.1 143 0.4 5.8 2.4 4.3 8.9 4.4 141 0.8 5.7 3.3 5.2 9.3 3.1 0.9 0.9 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -0.5 10.5 6.7 12.0 0.8 7.1 0 1.4 0.4 2.6 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 437 Change 20082013 -2.1 -2.7 -1.3 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 68,9 62 -6,9 Low income 72,3 62,7 -9,6 High income 63,4 51,7 -11,7 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 60,8 66,3 / 56,6 42 years career: average income Low / high income 74,7 77,5 / 69,4 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 61,8 54,4 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 66,7 54,4 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 55,8 42,8 (100/0/0)* (100/0/0)* 62 / 62 54,4 / 54,4 63,3 / 60,8 55,8 / 53,1 55,3 -5,5 53,2 47,4 57,2 / 46,1 (-9,1/-10,5) 58,9 / 48,4 68,5 -6,2 -12,3 -13,0 -5,8 47,4 / 36,7 (-11,5/-11,7) 68,1 61,4 68,2 / 57,8 (-9,3/-11,6) 73,1 / 62,2 -7,4 -6,7 61,4 / 49,8 (-11,7/-12,4) 60,2 54,7 -5,5 52,5 46,3 -6,2 64,7 61,3 -3,4 57,2 53,7 -3,5 65,9 60,3 -5,6 58,5 52,7 -5,8 54,4 51,3 -3,1 46,3 42,8 -3,5 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 49,4 45,3 -4,1 44,7 37,0 -7,7 51,8 45,1 -6,7 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS FI Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 58.6 59.5 8 9 76.5 83.3 17.5 21.3 0.8 68.6 2418.86 8.31 2009 58.2 58.6 8.2 9 76.6 83.5 17.3 21.5 3.7 69.0 2400.24 9.17 2010 58.5 58.2 8.8 8.9 76.9 83.5 17.5 21.5 3.9 68.5 2451.22 8.99 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 438 2011 57.7 58.3 8.4 8.6 77.3 83.8 17.7 21.7 4.4 69.1 2552.51 8.95 2012 57.3 56.2 8.4 9 77.7 83.7 17.8 21.6 4.6 67.2 2637.73 9.09 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS178 178 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 439 FI Unemployment definition Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total unit Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted source Eurostat Unemployment benefit Earnings-related unemployment allowance; Basic unemployment allowance; Labour definition market support unit thousands of recipients, at the end of the month source Social Insurance Institution and the Financial Supervisory Authority (FIN-FSA) comment Earnings-related unemployment allowance is paid for those who fullfil the eligibility criterias: Employment conditions and are member of an unemployment fund. This is voluntary, you have to pay an annual fee. In the case of unemployment the allowance is related to your salary. Basic unemployment allowance is like earningsrelated allowance, but the difference is that you are not a member of an unemployment fund or do not qualify for the earnings-related allowance for some other reason. The basic allowance is flat rate and low. Starting from 2010, basic and earnings-related unemployment allowances are payable not only during unemployment but also during participation in a measure of active labour market policy. Labour market support is flat rate benefit (and low) for those who do not qualify for the elibility rules of the benefits mentioned above. In practice they are young people and those who have received the allowances mentioned above for the maximum period (500 days). Unlike with the unemployment allowance, a demonstrated need of financial assistance is also required. Although in most cases labour market support and basic unemployment allowance are the same rate. A total of 346,000 persons received unemployment benefits at year-end 2013. Of them, 54% were in receipt of a basic unemployment benefit. The number of recipients of unemployment benefits started to increase in autumn 2012 and the increase has continued in 2013 and 2014. Social assistance benefit definition Recipients of social assistance (households) by calendar month unit thousands of recipients source National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) comment In 2013, on average 123,000 households per month received social assistance. The number of households receiving social assistance grew rapidly in the first part of 2009, but subsequently the growth rate came to halt. The numbers were, however, decidedly more than 10 per cent higher than during the downturn before 2008. However, in 2013 the number of households receiving social assistance increased by 3 per cent on the previous year. 440 Disability benefit definition Recipients of disability pension (earnings-related schemes) at the end of the month unit thousands of recipients source Finnish Centre for Pensions comment Disability pensions in the earnings-related pension system consist of full and partial pensions and they may be awarded until further notice or for a specific period of time (cash rehabilitation benefit). Rehabilitation allowance is the benefit paid during active rehabilitation measures awarded to a person who is still in working life and would face a risk of disability in the near future without rehabilitation. The amount of this allowance is 1.33 times the disability pension and the pension system pays it, but it is not regarded or classified as a pension. The number of people receiving disability pensions has been decreasing for a number of years. During the last year the number of recipients decreased by 6 %. There are different reasons for this. The incidence of new disability pensions has decreased. They are applied less than before. According to a recent study people feel that their ability to work has ameliorated. One reason may also be the increased rehabilitation measures. The amount of recipients of rehabilitation allowance has more than doubled in ten years ( from 3055 in 2003 to 7872 recipients in 2012). In 2013, of those who finished their rehabilitation process 74 percent were in active working life and 67 percent of them returned back to work. The pension reform of 2005 introduced some technical reasons: in 2005 the retirement age changed from 65 to 63-68 years which means that between the ages 63-65 only old age pensions are awarded and not disability pensions as was the case before 2005. Also, the disability pension is converted to old age pension in earlier age than before (at the age of 63 for pensions beginning after 2005), so they end earlier than those that have begun before the 2005 reform (at the age of 65). 441 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 442 SWEDEN NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Reduction of the percentage of women and men aged 20-64 who are not in the labour force (except full-time students), the long-term unemployed or those on long-term sick leave to well under 14% Source: National Reform Programme (2014) PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) Progress on the target is monitored on the basis of the EU SILC data with a base year 2008 and target data year 2018; ii) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; iii) For the at-risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the calendar year prior to the survey year except for the United Kingdom (survey year) and Ireland (12 months preceding the survey). Similarly, the share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year. 443 COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) EU28 SE AROP % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 12.2 13.3 12.9 14.0 14.1 14.8 0.7 2.6 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 1121 1215 1212 1333 1372 1440 5.0 28.5 84877 83462 % of total pln 5.5 6.4 6.0 6.9 5.7 7.1 1.4 1.6 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 381 430 418 482 406 505 24.4 32.5 39644 40189 % of total pln 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 132 144 125 112 124 138 11.3 4.5 49673 48245 % of total pln 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.5 3.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 165 204 213 267 243 308 26.7 86.7 13552 13504 % of total pln 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 2.8 2.7 1000 persons 26 26 23 32 38 39 2.6 50.0 14249 13558 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.8 1.8 31 43 44 38 48 63 31.3 103.2 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 14 14 12 13 6 7 16.7 -50.0 3391 3685 VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). 444 MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT SE Real GDP rowth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 -0.6 0.9 6.2 0.8 28.9 2009 -5.0 -2.4 8.3 1.1 31.4 2010 6.6 1.0 8.6 1.6 29.8 2011 2.9 2.1 7.8 1.5 29.1 2012 0.9 0.7 8.0 1.5 29.9 2013 1.6 1.0 8.0 1.5 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS) MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE SE Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 28.9 7.5 4.4 11.4 0.6 3.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 2009 31.4 7.9 4.6 12.6 0.6 3.2 1.3 0.5 0.7 2010 29.8 7.4 4.1 12.2 0.5 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.7 2011 29.1 7.5 3.9 11.9 0.5 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.7 2012 29.9 7.6 3.9 12.4 0.5 3.2 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 28.1 7.5 4.4 11.4 0.6 3.0 0.9 0.0 0.3 30.5 7.9 4.6 12.6 0.6 3.2 1.3 0.0 0.3 29.0 7.4 4.1 12.1 0.5 3.1 1.4 0.0 0.4 28.3 7.5 3.9 11.9 0.5 3.1 1.2 29.1 7.6 3.9 12.4 0.5 3.2 1.2 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. 445 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 SE Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income growth Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.8 1.5 0.7 2.6 517 1636 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 14.9 12.2 10680 15.9 13.3 11295 15.0 12.9 10991 16.1 14.0 11284 15.6 14.1 11799 16.4 14.8 12316 22427 1.4 23720 1.6 23082 1.3 23695 1.2 24778 1.3 25864 1.4 1086 0.1 3437 0 5.5 2.6 18.0 12.2 6.4 3.7 20.3 11.7 6.0 4.9 19.7 11.2 6.9 4.1 18.5 11.6 5.7 7.1 1.4 1.6 18.9 10.8 19.8 10.8 0.9 0 57.2 3.5 8.1 50.0 3.7 9.6 51.7 3.5 6.5 49.8 3.6 7.9 48.5 3.7 7.6 45.4 3.7 7.9 -3.15 0 0.3 446 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 1.8 -1.4 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 -11.8 0.2 -0.2 34.5 5 11.2 35.27 5 11 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 SE Children (0-17) SE Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.8 1.6 0.8 2.5 0.5 0.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 14.6 12.9 1.7 15.1 13.1 1.7 14.5 13.1 1.3 15.9 14.5 1.3 15.4 14.6 1.4 16.2 15.4 1.9 4.1 17.9 4.3 20.5 4.8 20.0 5.5 21.8 4.9 22.4 6.2 20.9 1.3 -1.5 2.1 3.0 62.2 11.6 56.9 10.8 58.4 12.3 54.7 12.3 54.7 12.6 50.6 12.0 -4.0 -0.6 -11.5 0.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 29.8 27.8 1.1 31.9 29.8 2.7 31.6 29.5 2.2 27.9 25.4 1.5 28.6 27.4 1.3 32.7 29.9 2.3 6.8 20.4 10.7 10.7 21.1 10.1 19.8 12.8 13.1 24.7 9.0 20.1 12.8 10.6 17.0 8.6 16.4 12.1 10.2 15.8 6.1 16.5 12.4 10.5 15.8 8.4 19.4 12.8 9.9 18.2 447 Change Change 201220082013 2013 4.1 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.0 1.2 2.3 2.9 0.4 -0.6 2.4 1.6 -1.0 2.1 -0.8 -2.9 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 SE % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) SE % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.4 1.7 1.1 2.8 0.1 0.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 14.8 11.2 1.5 15.6 12.1 1.8 15.0 11.9 1.5 15.4 12.5 1.3 15.1 12.9 1.5 16.5 14.0 1.6 6.2 6.8 23.7 11.6 8.0 7.2 7.0 24.8 12.3 9.4 6.5 6.6 25.5 13.0 6.7 7.5 6.9 21.9 13.3 6.9 6.0 6.7 25.5 12.7 6.9 7.5 7.1 23.1 13.8 8.0 1.5 0.4 -2.4 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.3 -0.6 2.2 0.0 59.1 52.2 54.1 52.8 50.2 47.8 -2.4 -11.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15.5 15.0 0.8 0.78 0.62 2.6 18.0 17.7 0.5 0.77 0.60 4.1 15.9 15.5 0.7 0.79 0.60 3.2 18.6 18.2 0.6 0.77 0.58 3.6 17.9 17.7 0.4 0.78 0.56 2.7 16.5 16.4 0.2 0.81 0.58 2.3 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS) 448 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.4 1.0 -1.3 1.4 -0.2 -0.6 0.03 0.03 0.02 -0.04 -0.4 -0.3 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 SE % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 14.6 12.9 1.7 15.1 13.1 1.7 14.5 13.1 1.3 15.9 14.5 1.3 15.4 14.6 1.4 16.2 15.4 1.9 Change 20122013 0.8 0.8 0.5 4.1 4.3 4.8 5.5 4.9 6.2 1.3 2.0 4.0 4.3 3.4 6.4 6.5 5.9 6.7 6.3 6.0 -0.3 -0.4 11.0 10.6 71.7 72.7 80.5 78.8 88.6 93.7 5.1 22 67.5 64.9 9.6 9.9 9.0 10.1 10.2 9.6 -0.6 0 15.9 15.6 18.0 31.0 26.0 37.0 18.0 33.0 19.0 32.0 17.0 35.0 14.0 14.0 31.0 29.0 29.0 31.0 27.0 37.0 64.0 65.0 65.0 64.0 69.0 46.0 17.9 18.2 6.1 21.9 20.5 20.0 21.8 22.4 62.2 56.9 58.4 54.7 54.7 50.6 -4.02 4.2 4.4 7.9 2.5 272 1.8 11.6 5.6 5.4 7.0 2.5 278 1.2 10.8 3.8 4.0 6.5 2.1 294 2.0 12.3 4.5 4.2 6.6 2.2 235 1.9 12.3 4.2 4.1 7.5 1.8 293 1.8 12.6 3.7 4.0 7.1 1.7 12.0 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) 449 Change 20082013 1.6 2.5 0.2 2.1 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 20.9 -1.5 3 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 28.4 27.6 -11.53 39.3 41.3 -0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 10.5 6.7 12.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 60,3 53,0 -7,3 Low income 82,9 53,2 -29,7 High income 57,5 47,9 -9,6 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 54,7 57,9 / 53,5 42 years career: average income Low / high income 66,4 86,7 / 65,4 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 63,6 54,6 (76/2/22)* (62/13/24)* 72,4 54,6 (79/2/19)* (62/13/24)* 53,7 45,7 (62/2/36)* (52/11/38)* 51,3 / 55 52,6 / 57 64,6 / 45,1 67,2 / 45,9 47,7 -7,0 56,9 48,4 47,3 / 42,8 (-10,6/-10,7) 59,9 / 49,5 63 -3,4 -17,8 -8,0 -8,5 48,4 / 40,6 (-11,5/-8,9) 72,5 61,6 62,6 / 55,8 (-24,1/-9,6) 86,3 / 61,9 -9 -10,9 61,6 / 51,3 (-24,7/-10,6) 58,6 46,3 -12,3 51,7 52,5 0,8 60,1 52,3 -7,8 63,3 53,8 -9,5 59,7 50,8 -8,9 62,6 52 -10,6 57,9 41,2 -16,7 53,2 40,9 -12,3 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 35,3 26,4 -8,9 44,7 37,0 -7,7 35,4 22,7 -12,7 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS SE Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 69.4 69 13.1 14 79.2 83.3 18 20.9 2.4 78.5 2834.31 9.23 2009 70.7 69.6 13.6 14.7 79.4 83.5 18.2 21.2 2 79.7 2807.52 9.94 2010 71.7 71.1 14.1 15.5 79.6 83.6 18.3 21.2 1.8 80 2825.54 9.47 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 450 2011 71.1 70.2 13.9 15.2 79.9 83.8 18.5 21.3 1.4 79.9 2935.56 9.49 2012 70.8 70.6 13.9 15.5 79.9 83.6 18.5 21.1 1.3 80.9 3030.25 9.58 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS179 SE definition unit source definition unit source definition unit source definition unit source definition unit source Unemployment Unemployment according to ILO definition - Total Thousands of persons - seasonally adjusted Eurostat Unemployment benefit Unemployment benefit; labour market measures thousands of recipients, measured in full year equivalents Statistics Sweden Social assistance benefit/means-tested minimum income Subsistance allowance measured in full year equivalents (i.e. benefit for 365 days at a 100% withdraw rate). Statistics Sweden Disability benefit (1) Sickness benefit thousands of recipients, measured in full year equivalents Statistics Sweden Disability benefit (2) Disability benefits thousands of recipients, measured in full year equivalents Statistics Sweden 179 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 451 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 452 UNITED KINGDOM NATIONAL 2020 TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Existing numerical targets of the 2010 Child Poverty Act and Child Poverty Strategy 2014-2017, as follows: "The Government is committed to our goal of ending child poverty in the UK by 2020. The Child Poverty Strategy 2014-2017outlines our plans to tackle the root causes of poverty, including worklessness, low earnings and educational failure. This approach reflects the reality of child poverty in the UK today and is the only way to achieve lasting change to protect the poorest in society. We will improve the life chances of children by: raising the incomes of poor children‘s families by helping them get into work and making work pay; supporting the living standards of low-income families; and raising educational outcomes of poor children." The UK Government is responsible for policies in this area in England and when policy areas are reserved to Parliament in the devolution settlements, for example the welfare system which is only devolved in Northern Ireland. The Devolved Administrations are responsible for their own policy direction in all other areas, for example education. Current level of performance against objectives: The latest indicators that the Government identified in the Child Poverty Act 2010 are set out in the table below: Indicator Target Current level Reference period 17 per cent 2012-2013 Absolute low income: proportion of children Less than 5 19 per cent 2012-2013 Relative low income: proportion of children Less than 10 who live in households where income is less per than 60 per cent of median net equivalised household income before housing costs for the financial year. cent by 2020-21 who live in households where income is less per than 60 per cent of the 2010/11 median net equivalised household income adjusted for prices, before housing costs. cent 2020-21 453 by Low income and material deprivation: Less than 5 13 per cent 2012-2013 proportion of children living in households per who experience material deprivation and live in households where income is less than 70 per cent of median net equivalised household cent by 2020-21 income before housing costs for the financial year. Persistent poverty: proportion of children living Less than 7 12 per cent 2005-2008 in households where income is less than 60 per per cent by cent of median net equivalised household 2020-21 income before housing costs for the financial year in at least three of the previous four years. Source: National Reform Programme (2014), additional information from the Member State PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 NATIONAL TARGET FOR THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) AROPE - at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate; AROP - at-risk-of-poverty rate; (quasi-)jobless HHs - share of population living in (quasi-)jobless households, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI) households; SMD - severe material deprivation rate; ii) For the at- 454 risk-of poverty rate (AROP), the income reference year is the year of the survey. The share of (quasi-) jobless households or the very low work intensity rate (VLWI) refers to the reference year prior to the survey while for the severe material deprivation rate (SMD), the reference is the current year; iii) Changes in the survey vehicle and institution in 2012 might have affected the results on trends since 2008 and interpretation of data on the longer term trend must therefore be particularly cautious; COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION AT RISK OF POVERTY OR SOCIAL EXCLUSION (2013) Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC), 455 EU28 UK AROP VLWI SMD AROP+VLWI AROP+SMD % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change Change 201220082013 2013 2012 2013 % of total pln 18.7 17.3 17.1 16.2 16.0 15.9 -0.1 -2.8 16.9 16.7 1000 persons 11335 10526 10519 10018 10028 10000 -0.3 -11.8 84877 83462 % of total pln 10.4 12.7 13.2 11.5 13.0 13.2 0.2 2.8 10.5 10.7 1000 persons 4905 5941 6201 5452 6242 6334 1.5 29.1 39644 40189 % of total pln 4.5 3.3 4.8 5.1 7.8 8.3 0.5 3.8 9.9 9.6 1000 persons 2739 2034 2972 3137 4878 5219 7.0 90.5 49673 48245 % of total pln 3.9 4.9 4.4 3.0 2.7 2.4 -0.3 -1.5 2.7 2.7 1000 persons 2356 2983 2699 1845 1714 1496 -12.7 -36.5 13552 13504 % of total pln 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.7 417 390 613 1013 1009 -0.4 70.2 14249 13558 1000 persons 593 AROP+SMD+ % of total pln VLWI 1000 persons 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.8 -0.1 0.6 1.8 1.8 748 690 856 762 1161 1113 -4.1 48.8 9240 9250 % of total pln 0.8 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.6 2.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.7 1000 persons 463 333 679 581 1001 1235 23.4 166.7 3391 3685 SMD+VLWI Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC) Note: i) change 2012-2013 and 2008-2013 is calculated as difference in percentage points (pp) for % of total population and for values in 1000 persons the change is indicated in percentage change (%). ii) There was a change in the EU-SILC survey vehicle in the UK between 2011 and 2012, which may impact on the comparability of figures. MACRO-ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT UK Real GDP growth (y-o-y % change) Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Unemployment rate Long-term unemployment rate Social Protection expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 -0.3 0.8 5.6 1.4 24.6 2009 -4.3 -1.6 7.5 1.9 27.5 2010 1.9 0.2 7.8 2.5 27.1 2011 1.6 0.5 8.1 2.7 27.6 2012 0.7 1.1 7.9 2.8 28.4 2013 1.7 1.2 7.6 2.7 Source: Eurostat (National Accounts, LFS, ESSPROS (figures at 28 January 2015)) 456 EU28 2012 2013 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 10.5 10.8 4.7 5.1 28.3 MAIN SOCIAL INDICATORS SOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE UK Social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Means-tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. Non-means tested Total Sickness/Health Disability Old age Survivors Family/Children Unemployment Housing Social Exclusion n.e.c. EU28 2011 2012 27.9 28.3 8.3 8.4 2.1 2.1 11.2 11.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 2008 24.6 7.8 2.0 10.9 0.1 1.7 0.6 1.2 0.2 2009 27.5 8.7 2.1 12.2 0.1 1.9 0.8 1.4 0.2 2010 27.1 8.4 2.1 12.1 0.1 2.0 0.7 1.5 0.2 2011 27.6 9.0 2.0 12.2 0.1 1.9 0.7 1.5 0.2 2012 28.4 9.3 1.9 12.7 0.1 1.9 0.7 1.6 0.2 3.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.1 4.2 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.1 4.2 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.5 0.1 4.1 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.5 0.1 4.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.6 0.1 3.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 20.9 7.8 1.2 9.8 0.1 1.5 0.4 23.3 8.6 1.3 11.0 0.1 1.6 0.6 23.0 8.4 1.2 11.0 0.1 1.8 0.5 23.5 8.9 1.2 11.1 0.1 1.7 0.4 24.3 9.1 1.2 11.7 0.1 1.7 0.4 24.9 8.2 1.6 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.2 25.3 8.3 1.6 11.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Source: Eurostat (ESSPROS) Note: For non-means tested the aggregation Housing and Social Exclusion n.e.c is based only on Housing. The total figures of social expenditure include all benefits excluding administrative costs. Figures as at 28 January 2015. 457 INCOME AND LIVING CONDITIONS EU28 UK Total population % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Value of threshold (single HH) - in PPS Value of threshold (2 adults + 2 children younger than 14 years) - in PPS Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households (0-59) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate At risk-of-poverty gap Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) S80/S20 Housing cost overburden rate Real change in gross household disposable income (growth) Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.7 1.6 -0.1 -2.8 14 -1244 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 23.2 18.7 11126 22.0 17.3 10091 23.2 17.1 9521 22.7 16.2 9466 24.1 16.0 9868 24.8 15.9 9882 23364 4.5 21192 3.3 19995 4.8 19878 5.1 20723 7.8 20751 8.3 28 0.5 -2613 3.8 10.4 13.2 7.4 21.4 21.4 11.5 6.9 21.3 21.9 13.0 8.6 20.9 20.7 13.2 0.2 2.8 21.0 18.7 12.7 8.0 20.6 20.4 19.6 21.2 -1.3 0.5 35.3 5.6 16.3 43.1 5.3 16.3 44.8 5.4 16.5 46.9 5.3 16.4 46.1 5.0 7.3 47.2 4.6 7.9 -0.7 2.3 0.9 -1.9 1.6 -0.2 458 2012 2013 24.8 16.9 24.5 16.7 9.9 9.6 10.7 -1.4 2.5 10.5 10.2 23.5 18.2 1.05 -0.4 0.6 11.9 -1.0 -8.4 34.5 5.0 11.2 35.3 5.0 11.0 -1.7 0.5 -1.1 -0.3 23.8 18.3 EU28 UK Children (0-17) UK Youth (18-24) % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households At risk-of-poverty gap Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) Overcrowding rate % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households In-work at-risk-of poverty rate Youth unemployment ratio (15-24) NEET rate Housing cost overburden rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 1.4 3.0 0.9 -5.1 -0.2 5.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 29.6 24.0 6.5 27.4 20.7 4.4 29.7 20.4 7.3 26.9 18.0 7.1 31.2 18.0 12.5 32.6 18.9 12.3 13.9 19.7 16.1 19.5 17.1 16.7 14.1 19.8 16.3 15.9 16.7 16.3 0.4 0.4 39.6 10.9 51.6 12.7 54.2 13.0 57.6 12.4 57.0 10.7 57.2 13.2 0.2 2.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25.2 18.1 8.6 24.4 19.7 4.7 28.1 20.6 7.1 28.7 20.1 8.1 32.9 23.6 13.0 31.7 21.8 13.0 10.6 8.3 9.2 15.4 17.2 12.8 6.6 11.4 17.1 18.6 13.6 5.6 11.6 17.7 19.8 10.8 9.2 12.4 18.4 19.7 14.9 11.7 12.4 18.1 12.5 13.2 7.5 12.1 17.3 10.4 459 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 2.8 -3.4 9.1 23.8 9.3 25.2 17.7 2.3 39.3 41.3 23.1 23.5 EU28 Change Change 201220082013 2013 -1.2 6.5 -1.8 3.7 0.0 4.4 -1.7 -4.2 -0.3 -0.8 -2.1 2.6 -0.8 2.9 1.9 -6.8 2012 2013 31.6 23.1 12.0 31.8 22.7 12.0 10.7 11.9 9.7 17.1 14.1 10.7 11.4 9.9 17.0 13.2 EU28 UK % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Share of people living in very low work intensity households Working age In-work at-risk-of poverty rate (18-64) At risk-of-poverty gap Overcrowding rate Housing cost overburden rate Impact of social transfers on poverty reduction (excl. pensions) UK % At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate Elderly (65+) Relative median income of elderly Aggregate replacement ratio Overcrowding rate Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.4 4.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 4.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 19.7 14.7 4.7 19.8 14.8 3.6 21.2 14.9 5.0 21.4 14.1 5.5 23.7 15.3 8.0 24.1 14.7 8.7 9.2 8.0 22.5 6.5 15.8 11.4 6.3 22.1 7.1 16.2 11.7 6.7 23.6 7.2 16.6 10.6 7.8 22.9 7.0 16.6 11.9 8.7 22.9 7.2 8.6 12.0 8.2 22.0 8.1 9.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.9 0.9 0.4 2.8 0.2 -0.5 1.6 -6.8 38.0 44.4 45.2 48.0 44.0 46.5 2.5 8.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 28.5 27.3 1.4 0.74 0.43 0.6 23.1 22.3 1.2 0.80 0.44 0.7 22.3 21.3 1.3 0.81 0.48 0.7 22.7 21.8 1.3 0.81 0.48 0.6 17.3 16.4 1.4 0.88 0.50 1.8 18.1 16.6 2.1 0.87 0.53 1.6 Change Change 201220082013 2013 0.8 -10.4 0.2 -10.7 0.7 0.7 -0.01 0.13 0.03 0.10 -0.2 1.0 2012 2013 25.4 16.5 10.0 25.3 16.4 10.0 10.9 9.1 25.9 18.1 11.6 11.1 8.9 25.8 18.7 11.4 35.0 36.2 EU28 2012 2013 19.4 14.6 7.5 0.91 0.54 6.8 18.3 13.8 7.0 0.93 0.56 6.8 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS), Note: There was a change in the EU-SILC survey vehicle in the UK between 2011 and 2012, which may impact on the comparability of figures. 460 INVESTING IN CHILDREN EU28 UK % Overall objective of combating child poverty and social exclusion and promoting child wellbeing At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion (0-17) At-risk-of-poverty rate (0-17) Severe Material Deprivation (0-17) Share of people living in low work intensity households (% of 0-17 population) Persistent at-risk-of-poverty (0-17) in-work poverty rate of people living in households with dependent children At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households with very low work intensity At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (0-17) living in households at work Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 0-3 years children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 0-3 years Childcare 1-29 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Childcare more than 30 hours per week (% 3 years to mandatory school age children) Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (0-17) Part time due to care responsibilities (total) Part time due to care responsibilities (male) Part time due to care responsibilities (female) Impact of social transfers (excl. pensions) in reducing child poverty Housing cost overburden rate (0-17) NEET rate (15-19) Early leavers from education and training (18-24) Self reported unmet need for medical care (16-24) Infant mortality Severe housing deprivation (0-17) Overcrowding rate (0-17) Access to adequate resources Access to quality services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 29.6 24.0 6.5 27.4 20.7 4.4 29.7 20.4 7.3 26.9 18.0 7.1 31.2 18.0 12.5 32.6 18.9 12.3 Change 20122013 1.4 0.9 -0.2 Change 20082013 3 -5.1 5.8 13.9 16.1 17.1 14.1 16.3 16.7 0.4 2.8 10.9 7.6 7.6 6.8 10.2 7.9 8.5 9.0 9.8 10.6 0.8 0.4 11.0 10.6 71.7 64.4 56.4 53.1 41.8 38.7 -3.1 -33 67.5 64.9 16.2 12.2 12.7 12.1 13.2 14.8 1.6 -1.4 15.9 15.6 31.0 4.0 31.0 4.0 31.0 4.0 30.0 5.0 24.0 3.0 14.0 14.0 67.0 70.0 67.0 66.0 63.0 37.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 27.0 9.0 46.0 19.7 19.5 16.7 19.8 33.5 5.8 41.9 15.9 33.8 6.2 42.2 16.3 32.7 6.5 40.6 0.4 -1.1 0.3 -1.6 -3.4 2012 2013 28.1 20.7 11.8 27.6 20.3 11.0 9.1 9.3 12.8 23.8 22.7 25.2 22.1 28.4 27.6 39.6 51.6 54.2 57.6 57.0 57.2 0.2 17.69 39.3 41.3 17.4 7.9 17.0 0.7 3663 3.9 10.9 17.0 8.2 15.7 1.2 3563 5.1 12.7 16.8 8.5 14.9 0.4 3416 4.7 13.0 16.1 8.5 15.0 1.6 3386 4.5 12.4 6.3 7.8 13.6 1.4 3347 3.4 10.7 7.8 7.3 12.4 1.5 -0.5 -1.2 -9.6 -0.6 -4.6 10.5 6.7 12.0 4.6 13.2 1.2 2.5 0.7 2.3 10.8 6.9 12.7 1.4 19983 7.6 23.1 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, LFS, Mortality data) Note: There was a change in the EU-SILC survey vehicle in the UK between 2011 and 2012, which may impact on the comparability of figures. 461 7.6 23.5 LONG-TERM ADEQUACY OF PENSIONS: THEORETICAL REPLACEMENT RATES (2010-2050) Theoretical replacement rates (TRR): 40 years career: average income earner (basecase) Net 2010 Net 2050 Difference 77,2 75,1 -2,1 Low income 87,1 89,9 2,8 High income 54,1 50,4 -3,7 Lower / higher future rates of return Lower / higher future wage growth 38 years career: average income Low / high income 42 years career: average income Low / high income 10 years after retirement Female worker with 3 years of career break for childcare 3 years of career break for unemployment 10 years out of the labour market Benefit ratio (Public pensions) Gross replacement rate at retirement (Public pensions) Gross2010 Gross2050 Difference 64,6 62,6 (62/0/38)* (59/0/41)* 73,9 76,3 (66/0/34)* (66/0/34)* 43,4 40,4 (57/0/43)* (52/0/48)* 71,2 / 79,9 58,8 / 67,1 81,9 / 70 69,1 / 57,7 -2,0 2,4 -3,0 70,9 72,7 1,8 58,8 60,3 1,5 78 / 51 87,3 / 48,7 9,3 / -2,3 65,9 / 40,7 73,7 / 38,8 7,8 / -1,9 80,3 77,6 -2,7 67,1 64,9 -2,2 90,5 / 56,1 92,6 / 52,2 2,1 / -3,9 77,2 / 45,1 79 / 42 1,8 / -3,1 72,1 68,8 -3,3 58,2 55,5 -2,7 71,5 76,2 4,7 59,7 63,6 3,9 76,6 76,8 0,2 64,0 64,2 0,2 63,4 63,6 0,2 51,5 51,6 0,1 2010 2050 Difference EU27 2010 : : : 44,7 37,0 -7,7 5,1 5,3 0,2 48,0 39,1 -8,9 EU27 2050 Difference Note: *: Share of statutory DB-NDC / statutory funded / occupational and other supplementary pensions Source: Joint SPC/EC report on Pension Adequacy in the European Union (2010-2050) HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS UK Healthy life years at birth (years) - male Healthy life years at birth (years) - female Healthy life years at 65 (years) - male Healthy life years at 65 (years) - female Life expectancy at birth (years) - male Life expectancy at birth (years) - female Life expectancy at 65 (years) - male Life expectancy at 65 (years) - female Self reported unmet need for medical examination or treatment Self-perceived health (%) Total health care expenditure per capita (PPS) Total health care expenditure (% of GDP) 2008 65 66.3 10.7 11.8 77.8 81.9 17.7 20.3 1 79.2 2009 65 66.1 10.9 11.4 78.3 82.5 18.1 20.8 1.2 78.3 2010 65 65.6 10.9 11.8 78.7 82.6 18.3 20.9 1 79.4 Source: Eurostat (EU-SILC, Mortality data, SHA) 462 2011 65.2 65.2 11 11.9 79 83 18.5 21.1 1.2 77.5 2012 64.6 64.5 10.5 10.5 79.1 82.8 18.5 20.9 1.4 74.7 EU28 2011 2012 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.1 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 77.4 77.5 83.2 83.1 17.8 17.7 21.3 21.1 3.4 3.4 67.9 68.2 TRENDS IN TAKE-UP OF SELECTED BENEFITS180 180 These data have been collected by the SPC in the context of monitoring the social impact of the crisis. It includes only a selection of benefits which have been considered most reactive to the crisis. The number of unemployed (standard definition by the ILO) and the number of persons with overdue debt repayments are given as a background. 463 Number of Unemployed (ILO) definition Total number of people actively seeking work who cannot find work, seasonally adjusted (thousands) unit thousands of claimants source Eurostat link http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/employment_unemployment_lfs/data/database Click the link directly above. In the drop down menus select "Employment and unemployment (Labour Force Survey)", then "LFS main indicators", then Unemployment - LFS adjusted series" and then "Unemployment by sex and age groups - monthly average, 1000 persons". You will need to update the TIME variable to ensure that the data explorer contains the relevant years. To do this click the + symbol next to the variable TIME, then add the relevant years, and then select update. Finding the data Comment Jobseeker's Allowance definition Total number of 16-64 year olds in Great Britain claiming jobseeker's allowance (thousands) unit thousands of claimants source NOMIS link http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/gor/2092957698/subreports/gor_ccadr_time_series/report.aspx? Click the link directly above. Then under "monthly time-series" select "Aged 16-64 (total)- monthly". Then copy figures under "Great Britain" Universal Credit is a new benefit that was introduced in April 2013. Once income-based Jobseeker's Allowance ends, many people who would have claimed this benefit will claim Universal Credit instead. Those people claiming Universal Credit who would previously have claimed Jobseeker's Allowance are not captured in these figures. The number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance is derived from computerised records and excludes clerical claims. These clerical claims make up less than one percent of the total number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance. Finding the data Comment Income Support Claimants definition Total number of individuals in Great Britain receiving income support (thousands) unit thousands of claimants source DWP: WPLS link http://tabulation-tool.dwp.gov.uk/100pc/ Click the link directly above. Under "Benefit/Scheme" select "Income Support". Then under "Analysis" select "Caseload (thousands)"; under "Row" select "Time series"; under "column" you can select any of the options in the drop down menu; under "subset" select "NONE". Then click "Get Table >>" and copy the figures in the column marked "Total". Finding the data Comment Since October 2008 Employment and Support Allowance has been replacing Incapacity Benefit, Income Support awarded on the grounds of incapacity and Severe Disablement Allowance. This is one reason why there has been a marked fall in the number of Income Support claimants. Many claimants who would have previously been in receipt of Income Support have claimed or been moved over to Employment and Support Allowance, which is not captured in these figures. Universal Credit is a new benefit that was introduced in April 2013 Once Income Support ends, many people who would have claimed this benefit will claim Universal Credit instead. Those people claiming Universal Credit who would previously have claimed Income Support are not captured in these figures - although the number of claimants affected by this is very small. definition Incapacity and either Invalidity benefit benefit or severe disablement Total number of individuals in Great Britain receiving incapacity allowance (thousands). unit thousands of claimants source DWP: WPLS link http://tabulation-tool.dwp.gov.uk/100pc/ Click the link directly above. Under "Benefit/Scheme" select "Incapacity Benefit/ Severe Disablement Allowance combined information". Then under "Analysis" select "Caseload (thousands)"; under "Row" select "Time series"; under "column" you can select any of the options in the drop down menu; under "subset" select "NONE". Then click "Get Table >>" and copy the figures in the column marked "Total". Finding the data Comment Since October 2008 Employment and Support Allowance has been replacing Incapacity Benefit, Income Support awarded on the grounds of incapacity and Severe Disablement Allowance. This is one reason why there has been a marked fall in the number of claimants receiving Incapacity Benefit and Severe Disablement Allowance. Many claimants who would previously been in receipt of one of these benefits have claimed, or been moved over to Employment and Support Allowance, which is not captured in these figures. 464 Employment and Support Allowance definition Total number of individuals in Great Britain receiving Employment and Support Allowance (thousands). unit thousands of claimants source DWP: WPLS link http://tabulation-tool.dwp.gov.uk/100pc/ Click the link directly above. Under "Employment and Support Allowance". Then under "Analysis" select "Caseload (thousands)"; under "Row" select "Time series"; under "column" you can select any of the options in the drop down menu; under "subset" select "NONE". Then click "Get Table >>" and copy the figures in the column marked "Total". Employment and Support Allowance was introduced in October 2008. Since that time Employment and Support Allowance has gradually been replacing Incapacity Benefit, Income Support awarded on the grounds of incapacity and Severe Disablement Allowance. Initially only new claimants were placed on Employment & Support Allowance, but now the majority of claimants already in receipt of Incapacity Benefit, Income Support awarded on the grounds of incapacity and Severe Disablement Allowance have been migrated to the newer benefit. Universal Credit is a new benefit that was introduced in April 2013. Once income-related Employment and Support Allowance ends, many people who would have claimed this benefit will claim Universal Credit instead. Those people claiming Universal Credit who would previously have claimed income related Employment and Support Allowance are not captured in these figures - although the number of claimants potentially affected by this is very small. Finding the data Comment Disability Living Allowance definition unit source link Finding the data Comment Total number of Working Age adults in Great Britain receiving Disability Living Allowance (thousands). These figures refer to working age adults receivimng DLA rather than to working age adults entitled to DLA. thousands of claimants DWP: WPLS http://tabulation-tool.dwp.gov.uk/100pc/ Click the link directly above. Under "Benefit/Scheme" select "Disability Living Allowance - cases in payment". Then under "Analysis" select "Caseload (thousands)"; under "Row" select "Time series"; under "column" you can select any of the options in the drop down menu; under "subset" select "Working Age/Pension Age split"; then under the next dropdown menu called "subset" select "Working Age". Then click "Get Table >>" and copy the figures in the column marked "Total". From April 2013, a new benefit called Personal Independence Payment was introduced to replace Disability Living Allowance for eligible working age people aged 16-64, which is not captured in these figures. 465 SUMMARY TABLE OF MAIN SOCIAL TRENDS (*) When no values for 2013 changes are between 2011-2012 and 2008-2012 466 8. References Eurofound (2014a), Social situation of young people in Europe, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Eurofound (2014b), Access to healthcare in times of crisis, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. European Commission (2010), ―Youth and segmentation in EU labour markets‖, in: Employment in Europe, Luxembourg: Publication Office of the European Union. European Commission (2012a). Employment and Social Developments in Europe in 2012 European Commission( 2012b). Employment and Social Quarterly Review, September 2012 European Commission (2013a). Recommendation on Investing in Children European Commission (2013b). Employment and Social Situation Quarterly Review, September 2013. European Commission (2013c). Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2013. European Commission (2014). "European Economic Forecast Autumns 2014. " European Economy 7/2014. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2014/pdf/ee7_en.pdf Social Protection Committee (2011). Tackling and preventing child poverty, promoting child being. Social Protection Committee (2012). Social Europe: Current challenges and the way forward. Social Protection Committee (2013). Social Europe: Many ways, one objective. Ward, T., Calers, H., Matsaganis, M. (2006), ―Is it too difficult for young adults to become autonomous?‖, Research Note, Applica 467 9. Definitions and data sources Indicator Definition Data source At risk of poverty or social The sum of persons who are: at-risk-of-poverty or severely Eurostat exclusion rate materially deprived or living in quasi jobless households SILC – EU – EU – EU – EU – EU – EU (i.e.with very low work intensity) as a share of the total population At-risk-of-poverty rate Share of persons aged 0+ with an equivalised disposable Eurostat income below 60% of the national equivalised median SILC income. Equivalised median income is defined as the household's total disposable income divided by its "equivalent size", to take account of the size and composition of the household, and is attributed to each household member. Equivalisation is made on the basis of the OECD modified scale. Severe material deprivation rate Share of population living in households lacking at least 4 items out of the following 9 items: i) to pay rent or utility bills, ii) keep home adequately warm, iii) face unexpected Eurostat SILC expenses, iv) eat meat, fish or a protein equivalent every second day, v) a week holiday away from home, or could not afford (even if wanted to) vi) a car, vii) a washing machine, viii) a colour TV, or ix) a telephone. Share of population(0-59) in (quasi-) jobless, i.e. very low work intensity (VLWI), People aged 0-59, living in households, where working-age adults (18-59) work less than 20% of their total work potential during the past year. Eurostat SILC households Relative poverty risk gap Difference between the median equivalised income of Eurostat rate persons aged 0+ below the at-risk-of poverty threshold and SILC the threshold itself, expressed as a percentage of the at-riskof poverty threshold. Persistent poverty rate at-risk-of- Share of persons aged 0+ with an equivalised disposable Eurostat income below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold in the current SILC year and in at least two of the preceding three years. 468 Income quintile ratio S80/S20 The ratio of total income received by the 20% of the Eurostat country's population with the highest income (top quintile) to SILC – EU – EU – EU – EU – EU that received by the 20% of the country's population with the lowest income (lowest quintile). Income must be understood as equivalised disposable income. At risk of poverty or social The sum of children (0-17) who are: at-risk-of-poverty or Eurostat exclusion rate of children severely materially deprived or living in (quasi-)jobless SILC households (i.e. households with very low work intensity (below 20%) as a share of the total population Impact of social transfers Reduction in the at-risk-of-poverty rate in % due to social Eurostat (excluding pensions) on transfers, calculated as the percentage difference between SILC poverty reduction the at-risk-of-poverty rate before and after social transfers At-risk-of-poverty rate for Share of persons aged (0-59) with an equivalised disposable Eurostat the population living in income below 60% of the national SILC (quasi-)jobless (i.e. very income who live in households where working-age adults low (18-59) work less than 20% work intensity) households equivalised median of their total work potential during the past year. In-work at-risk-of-poverty rate Individuals (18-64) who are classified as employed according to their most frequent activity status and are at risk of poverty. The distinction is made between ―wage and salary Eurostat SILC employment plus self-employment‖ and ―wage and salary employment‖ only. Long-term Total long-term unemployed population (≥12 months' unemployment rate (active population, 15+) Youth ratio unemployment Eurostat – LFS unemployment; ILO definition) as a proportion of total active population. Total unemployed young people (ILO definition), 15-24 years, as a share of total population in the same age group Eurostat - LFS (i.e. persons aged 15-24 who were without work during the reference week, were currently available for work and were either actively seeking work in the past four weeks or had already found a job to start within the next three months as a percentage of the total population in the same age group). Share of persons aged 18 to 24 who have only lower secondary education (their highest level of education or Early leavers from education and training training attained is 0, 1 or 2 according to the 1997 International Standard Classification of Education – ISCED 97) and have not received education or training in the four weeks preceding the survey. 469 Eurostat – LFS NEET (18-24) Share of young people aged 18-24 not in employment, Eurostat - LFS education or training Employment rate of older Persons in employment in age group 55-64, as a proportion workers of total population in the same age group. At risk of poverty or social exclusion rate of the elderly The sum of elderly (65+) who are: at-risk-of-poverty or severely materially deprived or living in (quasi-)jobless households (i.e. with very low work intensity) as a share of the total population in the same age group. Median relative income ratio of elderly people Median equivalised disposable income of people aged 65+ as a ratio of income of people aged 0-64. Aggregate ratio replacement Housing cost overburden rate Share of the population with self-reported unmet need for medical care Healthy life years at 65 Change in real gross household disposable income (GHDI) GDP growth/ GDP per capita (in PPS) Eurostat – LFS Eurostat SILC – EU Eurostat SILC – EU Median individual pension income of 65-74 relative to median individual earnings of 50-59, excluding other social 181 benefits Eurostat SILC – EU Percentage of the population living in a household where total housing costs (net of housing allowances) represent more than 40% of the total disposable household income (net of housing allowances). Total self-reported unmet need for medical examination for Eurostat SILC – EU Eurostat SILC – EU the following three reasons: financial barriers + waiting times + too far to travel. Number of years that a person at 65 is still expected to live in a healthy condition. To be interpreted jointly with life expectancy (included in the SPPM contextual information). Eurostat Real growth in gross household disposable income (GHDI). Eurostat National accounts Real GDHI is calculated as nominal GDHI divided by the deflator of household final consumption expenditure. Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the economic activity, defined as the value of all goods and services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation. - Eurostat The calculation of the annual growth rate of GDP at constant prices is intended to allow comparisons of the dynamics of economic development both over time and between economies of different sizes, irrespective of price levels. 181 Pension income covers pensions from basic (first pillar) schemes, means-tested welfare schemes; early retirement widow's (first pillar) and other old age-related schemes. Other social benefits includes: unemployment-related benefits; family-related benefits; benefits relating to sickness or invalidity; education-related allowances; any other personal social benefits. Work income includes income from wage and salary employment and income from self-employment. 470 Public debt General government percentage of GDP. consolidated gross debt as a Eurostat General Government data Employment rate Persons in employment in age group 15 to 64 as a proportion of total population in the same age group. Eurostat-LFS Unemployment rate Unemployed population as a proportion of total active population aged 15 years or more. Eurostat-LFS The annual percentage of gross domestic product spent on social protection. Eurostat Esspros Social protection expenditure (by types of risk) Old age dependency ratio - Social protection encompasses ―all interventions from public or private bodies intended to relieve households and individuals of the burden of a defined set of risks or needs, provided that there is neither a simultaneous reciprocal nor an individual arrangement involved‖. Ratio between the total number of people aged 65 and over and the number of persons of working age (aged 15 to 64). Eurostat Definition of the in-work at-risk-of-poverty rate Individuals who are classified as employed, defined here as being in work for over half of the year and who are at risk of poverty, i.e. live with an equivalised disposable income after social transfers below 60% of the national median equivalised disposable income. In defining in-work (monetary) poverty, the income for people who are employed is calculated for households, but the poverty status is assigned to the individual. This means that in-work poverty, when measured, is influenced by both the total disposable income (including non-wage income) and the household composition. The assumption of equal sharing of resources within households (giving the so-called equivalised income) that underlies the definition of monetary income poverty means that the economic well-being of individuals depends on the total resources contributed by all members of the households. In this respect some income can move from one household member to the other without affecting the actual income of the individual. Hence, measuring attachment to the labour market at the level of households provides a better indicator of the welfare implications associated with labour market status than individual employment rates. Income/disposable income Household income comes from different sources. Employment is generally the main source of income but it is not the only one. Individuals may receive transfers from the state (e.g. unemployment benefits, pensions, etc.); property income (e.g. dividends from financial assets, etc.); and income from other sources (e.g. rental income from property or from the sale of property or goods, etc.). 471 Employed In EU SILC, people are defined as employed based on the self-declared economic status. Working full year/less than full year Working full year corresponds to working during the total number of months for which information on the activity status has been provided. Less than full year corresponds to working for more than half, but less than all, the numbers of the months for which information on activity status is provided. Full-time/part-time working This variable refers to the main job with the designation of full-time and part-time work as selfreported by the respondent. 472 HOW TO OBTAIN EU PUBLICATIONS • Free publications: • one copy: via EU Bookshop (http://bookshop.europa.eu); • more than one copy or posters/maps: from the European Union’s representations (http://ec.europa.eu/represent_en.htm); from the delegations in non-EU countries (http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/index_ en.htm); by contacting the Europe Direct service (http://europa.eu/europedirect/index_en.htm) or calling 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (freephone number from anywhere in the EU) (*). (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). Priced publications: • via EU Bookshop (http://bookshop.europa.eu). KE-BG-14-001-EN-N The report delivers on the core task of the Social Protection Committee (SPC) to monitor the social situation in the Member States and the European Union. It is prepared by the Secretariat of the Committee and its Indicators’ Sub-group. The report provides an analysis of recent trends in the social situation in the Member States and the European Union and shows that there has been little improvement in the overall situation in the EU, although trends are more mixed than in preceding years. Continuing disparities occur across Member States and the situation is worsening in several. The report focuses on the results from the latest edition of the Social Protection Performance Monitor (SPPM), which is based on a set of key indicators for monitoring developments in the social situation. 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