chilean equity dashboard - Santiago

WEEKLY REPORT - CHILEAN EQUITIES
October 11th, 2016
CHILEAN EQUITY DASHBOARD
Week ended on October 7th
Last week, the short-selling stock position on the Santiago stock exchange showed a
36% increase WoW at CLP 33,899Mn. In particular, we observed relevant (over CLP
500Mn) increases in Entel, Enersis-AM, CMPC and Copec.
The Margin trading stock showed a 1.4% WoW increase at CLP 283,771Mn. In particular, we observed relevant (over CLP 500Mn) increases in plenty of companies such
as Parauco, SQM-B, SM-Chile, Ripley, Sonda, LAN and CMPC. Moreover, the largest
relevant decreases were Enersis-AM, Entel, CAP, Cencosud and Endesa-AM.
Regarding last week net insider movements, we highlight: (i) net investments in
Carozzi carried out by “Principado de Asturias S.A” (controlling shareholder) and (ii)
net divestments in Salfacorp executed by “Inversiones San Agustin S.A” (Management)
and by “Inversiones Matriz S.A” (controlling shareholder).
Last week we did not observed movements of Chilean ETF quotes, while accruing
+29.9% YTD.
1
Short Selling and Margin Trading weekly trend (CLP Mn)
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
Jacinta Correa
+562 2692-3486
[email protected]
150,000
100,000
0
Jan/10
Apr/10
Jul/10
Oct/10
Dec/10
Mar/11
Jun/11
Sep/11
Dec/11
Feb/12
May/12
Aug/12
Oct/12
Jan/13
Apr/13
Jul/13
Oct/13
Jan/14
Mar/14
Jun/14
Sep/14
Dec/14
Feb/15
May/15
Aug/15
Nov/15
Jan/16
Apr/16
Jul/16
Oct/16
CONTACT
50,000
Aldo Morales
+562 2692-3481
[email protected]
Short Selling
@BICEinversiones
1
Source: Santiago stock exchange, BICE Inversiones.
Margin Trading
Largest
short-selling
2
Short Selling stock position (CLP Mn)
Days of
Trade
stock position measured by days of trade are
Entel, Sonda and CAP.
Stock
ENTEL
SONDA
CAP
ENERSIS-AM
CMPC
AGUAS-A
COPEC
CENCOSUD
FORUS
ITAUCORP
AESGENER
COLBUN
BSANTANDER
ANDINA-B
ECL
CHILE
IAM
VAPORES
ENDESA-CH
PARAUCO
LAN
CCU
FALABELLA
BCI
TOTAL
3
9/Sep/16
487
1,600
2,121
2,400
414
2,016
1,824
8,048
370
116
238
109
4,219
351
56
1,365
1,698
29
132
366
705
586
1,084
586
31,405
16/Sep/16
612
1,888
2,056
2,820
728
1,929
1,854
6,724
390
446
243
211
1,542
382
95
1,387
1,705
29
228
374
708
485
1,097
837
29,485
23/Sep/16
412
1,773
2,156
3,656
864
2,009
1,394
5,748
359
406
226
321
1,420
386
112
1,134
403
29
304
161
343
487
333
992
25,693
30/Sep/16
439
1,825
2,215
3,783
1,977
2,076
1,505
5,394
371
598
217
308
966
303
153
673
242
57
334
216
336
169
393
194
24,929
7/Oct/16
3,415
1,922
2,540
5,741
2,554
2,510
2,293
5,598
440
1,070
331
370
1,341
352
242
648
116
27
540
303
361
172
432
309
33,899
2.9
2.4
1.8
1.8
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.0
Margin Trading stock position (CLP Mn)
Largest margin trading
positions are Parauco,
SQM-B and Colbun.
2
Stock
PARAUCO
SQM-B
COLBUN
ENERSIS-AM
SM-CHILE B
RIPLEY
SECURITY
SONDA
LAN
CMPC
CHILE
COPEC
ENTEL
CAP
FALABELLA
CENCOSUD
LAS CONDES
CCU
MULTIFOODS
ECL
ENDESA-AM
ANTARCHILE
ORO BLANCO
ENDESA-CH
Total
2/Sep/16
38,721
17,110
32,940
18,432
13,205
8,432
7,914
7,742
4,329
6,749
5,442
2,481
5,437
4,964
2,737
8,632
3,400
2,040
2,640
2,030
4,655
2,483
2,072
2,897
267,030
9/Sep/16
38,743
32,862
31,835
18,173
13,731
9,216
7,914
5,338
4,194
5,133
5,457
3,065
5,744
5,846
2,520
4,095
3,454
1,989
2,664
2,062
4,751
2,868
2,185
2,859
276,686
Increase > CLP 500M
Decrease > CLP 500M
Source: Santiago stock exchange, BICE Inversiones.
16/Sep/16
36,840
33,327
31,843
18,090
13,754
8,544
10,174
5,247
4,802
5,340
5,072
4,552
5,871
5,009
4,443
4,582
3,456
2,815
2,723
2,795
4,470
2,842
2,411
3,895
283,671
23/Sep/16
36,872
33,305
31,791
18,094
13,873
8,475
8,175
4,794
4,733
4,750
5,275
4,498
5,346
5,219
3,773
3,533
3,376
2,962
2,723
2,931
4,481
2,842
2,206
2,828
274,403
30/Sep/16
37,167
34,159
31,775
17,617
13,903
8,719
8,208
5,836
4,789
5,107
5,147
4,393
4,218
5,912
4,228
5,893
3,378
2,656
3,037
3,056
3,426
2,842
2,020
2,053
279,881
7/Oct/16
38,268
34,246
31,758
17,520
14,904
9,094
8,193
6,966
6,740
6,239
5,278
4,555
4,183
4,126
3,880
3,454
3,378
3,155
3,149
3,029
2,882
2,829
2,503
2,433
283,771
4
Net Insiders movements (CLP Mn)
Regarding last week net
insider movements, we
highlight: (i) net investments in Carozzi carried
out by “Principado de
Asturias S.A” (controlling
shareholder) and (ii) net
divestments in Salfacorp
executed by “Inversiones
San Agustin S.A” (Management) and by “Inversiones Matriz S.A” (controlling shareholder).
COMPANY
CAROZZI S.A.
INVERSIONES AGRICOLAS Y COMERCIALES S.A.
S.A.C.I. FALABELLA
MULTIEXPORT FOODS S.A.
SCOTIABANK CHILE
AGUAS ANDINAS S.A.
INGEVEC S.A.
MARBELLA COUNTRY CLUB S.A.
SOCOVESA S.A.
COMPAÑIA DE INVERSIONES LA ESPAÑOLA S.A.
HORTIFRUT S.A.
SALFACORP S.A.
1W
27
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-36
2W
27
1
30
5
0
0
-11
-12
-20
-127
-1,685
-36
COMPANY
EMPRESAS LA POLAR S.A.
RIPLEY CORP S.A.
DETROIT CHILE S.A.
DUNCAN FOX S.A.
SOCIEDAD PUNTA DEL COBRE S.A.
S.A.C.I. FALABELLA
SOCOVESA S.A.
COMPAÑIA DE INVERSIONES LA ESPAÑOLA S.A.
CENCOSUD S.A.
CHILECTRA S.A.
SALFACORP S.A.
HORTIFRUT S.A.
1M
10,361
2,090
618
82
39
30
-20
-127
-150
-150
-520
-1,685
2M
10,361
2,090
618
82
39
-18,192
-44
-127
-150
-150
-2,819
-1,685
Increase > CLP 500M
Decrease > CLP 500M
Source: Santiago stock exchange, BICE Inversiones.
Last week we did not
observed movements of
Chilean ETF quotes, while accruing +29.9% YTD.
5
Creation/Destruction ETF quotes per country (% AUM)
Chile
Brasil
Colombia
México
Perú
World
EM
Latam
USA
Europe
Asia (ex Japan)
Japan
China
Money Market
Develop Gov.
Inv. Grade
High Yield
EM Corp Debt
Inf. Linked
AUM
318
4,175
89
1,054
202
5,288
31,842
964
196,852
2,349
3,060
14,187
3,955
3,608
8,623
32,652
17,955
4,131
294
Source: BICE Inversiones.
3
5d
0.0%
0.0%
1.1%
3.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.6%
0.2%
0.0%
0.4%
1.2%
0.0%
0.9%
-2.0%
-0.9%
4.0%
4.7%
0.0%
1m
-3.4%
0.9%
1.1%
-7.8%
-1.6%
0.0%
0.0%
6.3%
-1.7%
0.0%
5.8%
0.1%
0.0%
6.3%
-3.6%
2.1%
11.5%
7.2%
-8.6%
3m
0.2%
1.2%
3.4%
6.6%
-3.6%
-9.7%
20.5%
15.3%
3.7%
-8.9%
23.2%
-5.0%
0.0%
-6.0%
-11.6%
3.3%
3.3%
17.3%
-27.3%
6m
-13.9%
1.3%
0.4%
-15.0%
-11.3%
-8.4%
12.7%
14.7%
5.3%
-11.4%
17.5%
-16.1%
-10.2%
-0.9%
-10.0%
9.6%
20.8%
23.0%
-39.4%
YTD
29.9%
22.5%
14.4%
-13.9%
14.5%
-20.3%
28.1%
28.1%
2.4%
-12.4%
7.5%
-34.7%
-38.3%
13.6%
1.5%
23.8%
14.3%
35.9%
-48.2%
1Y
28.6%
32.5%
21.4%
-10.4%
8.8%
-19.7%
30.7%
50.1%
5.5%
-10.4%
8.5%
-34.1%
-41.8%
-16.6%
-15.2%
30.5%
25.7%
42.8%
-42.7%
2015
-6.5%
-13.7%
23.2%
-26.1%
-20.3%
31.1%
-19.3%
-7.2%
13.7%
11.6%
6.6%
8.1%
10.8%
13.0%
42.7%
12.9%
-1.4%
19.2%
-96.1%
2014
-4.3%
7.3%
-3.4%
-1.3%
-15.1%
22.1%
-14.2%
-42.9%
9.5%
34.7%
20.6%
50.4%
-7.4%
2.3%
-7.1%
-47.2%
-5.9%
-38.5%
-5.3%
9
Appendix 2. Valuation & Recommendation
Price
16E T.P.
Target
Price
Andina
2.583
2.535
NEUTRAL
CCU
6.700
8.350
NEUTRAL
Consumer Staples
Mkt. Cap
(MMUS$)
% IPSA
ADTV
(MMUS$)
2015
9.581
3.487
6,2%
6,1
9,6x
9,4x
1,4%
1,0
8,2x
8,9x
3.698
3,0%
3,2
11,3x
9,6x
EV/EBITDA
2016E 2017E
2015
P/E
2016E
2017E
8,7x
21,4x
19,9x
18,4x
8,0x
21,8x
23,5x
21,2x
8,8x
24,0x
19,0x
18,1x
Concha y Toro
1.174
1.378
BUY
1.310
1,3%
1,5
11,2x
9,9x
9,9x
15,9x
14,2x
13,1x
Embonor-B
1.565
1.625
BUY
1.086
0,4%
0,4
7,5x
9,6x
9,0x
18,6x
23,4x
20,7x
26.678
20,5%
14,2
1,6x
6,4x
6,1x
14,2x
9,3x
10,7x
110
130
BUY
8.056
5,5%
3,3
-
4,8x
4,6x
17,7x
8,8x
10,7x
10,9x
Electric Utilities
Enersis Americas
Enersis Chile
67
83
NEUTRAL
4.878
3,8%
3,3
-
7,6x
5,8x
0,0x
12,6x
Endesa Chile
450
648
BUY
5.513
5,0%
2,7
-
7,2x
7,1x
32,7x
7,0x
9,9x
Endesa Americas
303
328
BUY
3.706
2,4%
1,5
-
5,9x
5,1x
0,0x
13,3x
8,9x
1.105
1.202
NEUTRAL
1.738
1,5%
1,9
7,2x
7,8x
9,7x
16,6x
6,1x
26,8x
222
310
NEUTRAL
2.788
2,3%
1,7
11,1x
9,6x
10,0x
15,2x
13,1x
10,8x
1.381
0,6%
0,0
7,1x
7,3x
6,6x
10,2x
11,9x
10,8x
860
950
NEUTRAL
1.381
0,6%
0,0
7,1x
7,3x
6,6x
10,2x
11,9x
10,8x
8.095
4,0%
6,9
10,0x
10,3x
10,2x
31,7x
26,8x
24,3x
E-CL (1)
AESGener (1)
Industrial
SK
Commodities
CAP
3.900
2.000
SELL
871
0,6%
2,8
5,4x
8,4x
10,6x
182x
-122x
-41x
Soquimich
18.351
12.250
NEUTRAL
7.225
3,4%
4,2
11,9x
11,0x
10,0x
30,1x
23,3x
20,4x
30.411
14,9%
33,1
13,9x
14,3x
12,3x
21,8x
19,0x
16,1x
Cencosud
1.960
2.000
BUY
8.321
5,5%
15,2
9,4x
10,4x
8,9x
17,3x
15,6x
13,2x
Falabella
4.930
5.080
BUY
17.926
6,2%
14,2
16,7x
16,3x
14,1x
22,2x
21,4x
17,9x
Parauco
Retail
1.504
1.613
BUY
1.999
2,1%
1,9
16,5x
19,6x
16,0x
15,3x
18,7x
17,1x
Ripley
409
377
NEUTRAL
1.183
0,8%
1,3
14,7x
15,8x
12,9x
-12,4x
15,4x
13,3x
Forus
2.545
2.190
NEUTRAL
Sanitary
Aguas-A
IAM
ILC
9,3x
13,3x
12,2x
13,7x
20,9x
19,7x
11,1x
12,2x
12,1x
16,7x
18,2x
17,3x
17,3x
412
BUY
3.669
2,8%
2,4
11,1x
12,2x
12,1x
16,7x
18,2x
1.098
BUY
1.748
1,2%
0,7
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.258
0,6%
0,7
9,9x
8,4x
9,3x
11,3x
4,0x
9,4x
7.650
8.785
BUY
1.143
0,6%
0,6
-
-
-
10,0x
2,5x
8,0x
747
955
NEUTRAL
1.116
0,0%
0,1
8,9x
7,9x
7,8x
12,8x
11,4x
11,4x
1.690
1,5%
1,3
8,7x
8,1x
7,2x
22,5x
18,6x
15,7x
1.299
1.461
BUY
Transportation
LATAM
0,6
3,1
415
Telecom & IT
Sonda
0,5%
4,0%
1.170
Healthcare
Habitat
983
5.416
1.690
1,5%
1,3
8,7x
8,1x
7,2x
22,5x
18,6x
15,7x
5.396
5,4%
8,5
9,8x
9,6x
8,7x
-23,1x
23,0x
21,3x
5.641
5.864
NEUTRAL
4.596
4,7%
8,2
10,0x
9,7x
8,8x
-
26,2x
23,9x
55
54
BUY
800
0,7%
0,3
7,2x
8,5x
8,4x
12,0x
13,6x
13,0x
34.589
16,9%
11,6
-
-
-
13,6x
14,3x
13,2x
Chile
74
75,9
NEUTRAL
10.831
3,6%
3,1
-
-
-
12,2x
12,7x
11,8x
SM Chile-B
213
208
NEUTRAL
4.182
2,2%
0,6
-
-
-
-
-
-
BSantander
34,4
34,7
NEUTRAL
9.669
5,1%
3,7
-
-
-
13,3x
13,1x
12,1x
30.412
32.410
BUY
5.521
3,6%
2,0
-
-
-
9,0x
10,5x
9,8x
5,7
6,5
NEUTRAL
4.385
2,4%
2,2
-
-
-
8,7x
13,2x
8,3x
4.076
4.350
125.496
74,7%
85,6
8,2x
9,7x
9,1x
18,8x
14,0x
14,2x
SMSAAM
Banks
BCI
Itaucorp
BI Sample
Source: BICE Inversiones
4
SALES TEAM
RESEARCH TEAM
Felipe Figueroa E.
Agustín Álvarez M.
Jacinto Laso P.
Aldo Morales E.
Head of Research
[email protected]
Equity Sales and Trading
[email protected]
Head of Equity Research
[email protected]
Equity Sales and Trading
[email protected]
Sebastián Carvallo I.
Andrés De la Cerda G.
Equity Research Analyst
[email protected]
Fixed Income and Currency
[email protected]
Jacinta Correa A.
Equity Research Analyst
[email protected]
Sebastián Senzacqua B.
Chief Economist
[email protected]
Juan Pablo Castillo C.
Senior Strategy Analyst
[email protected]
Contact
Follow
Download
Visit
600 400 4000
@BICEInversiones
App BICE Inversiones
biceinversiones.cl
5
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guided by the “Manual for share transactions and other securities by staff and BICECORP SA and its subsidiaries” and is available in www.biceinversiones.cl.
At the date of publication of this report, the analyst _________________ holds, directly or indirectly, investments in the issuer _________________or issuers
analyzed in it. At the date of publication of this report, the analyst Mr._________________ holds, directly or indirectly, with related links to the issuer analyzed in
it. BICE Inversiones S.A. Corredores de Bolsa states that currently maintains a business relationship with the issuer _________________ analyzed in this report. Mr.
_________________ analyst states that currently maintains a business relationship with the issuer analyzed in this report.
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