Targeted employment policies and partial labor market reforms

Irregular Migration and
Southern European
Labour Markets
Juan J. Dolado
(Dept. of Economics, EUI)
The Lampedusa Dilemma – Global Flows and Closed Borders.
What should Europe do?
EUI FORUM ON MIGRATION, CITIZENSHIP AND DEMOGRAPHY
(Pull)

Two Forces at Play
(Push)

Selection of migrants
(O)= origin, ( R) =receiving
Wage
(O)
Wage
(R)
(R)
(O)
Latam (O) & EU (R)
Easter Europe (O) & US (R)
Skill
Skill
(R)
Wage
(O)
EU(O) & US (R)
Skill
Origins of Immigration in S-Med countries
PULL
• ↓ Fertility & ↑ Aging
• ↓ Real interest rate (EZ)→ ↑ Investment in sectors
abundant in Temporary work (dual labour markets) →
boom in real state & services-based sectors
→ Demand for Less-skilled (LS) labour
+
PUSH
Demographic Boom in LDCs (30% OECD 2010 vs. 15% en 2050)
S-Med immigration magnets
→
→
Spain: Job Bust-Baby Bust
Aging (Native and immigrant (non-EU) population)
Año 2001
99
Hombres
Mujeres
89
79
Edades
69
59
49
39
29
19
9
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
5
Porcentaje
10
15
Pirámide de la población inmigrante
Perfil de la población española
Fuente: Censo de Población y Viviendas 2001
20
25
30
Immigration Boom in Spain (% total pop)
Spain & Italy received 15% of migration inflows to OCDE in mid-2000s
% Inmigrantes en cada país respecto al total OCDE en 2004
United States
United
Turkey
Portugal
Poland
New Zealand
Mexico
Korea
Italy
Ireland
Greece
France
Canada
Australia
Switzerland
Sweden
Spain
Slovak
Norway
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Japan
Hungary
Germany
Finland
Denmark
Czech Republic
Belgium
Austria
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
Immigration figures (m.)
Munic. Register / Year
2000
2002
2005
2014
Total Population
40.50
41.84
43.70
46.73
Registered foreigners
(EU)
0.92
1.98
3.50
5.00
(2.25)
Africa
Asia
Latam
Romania
Foreigners with residence
permit
0,35
0,90
1,04
0.72
0.80
1.11
2.14
4.70
Educational attaintment
Distribución de los hombres de nacionalidad española
y extranjera entre 25 y 44 años según nivel de
formación
Nacionales
Extranjeros (Comunitarios:15,20% Resto:84,8%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Analfabetos/Sin
estudios
Primaria
Secundaria
Terciaria
Distribución de las mujeres de nacionalidad española y
extranjera entre 25 y 44 años según nivel de formación
Nacionales
Extranjeros (Comunitarios:17,48% Resto:82,52%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Analfabetos/Sin
estudios
Primaria
Secundaria
Terciaria
Benefits for receiving countries
 Employers’ benefits > Workers’ costs
 Short-run costs vs. Medium/Long-run benefits
(except for PAYG pension systems; Spanish
amnesty 2005).
 Costs depend on migrants’skills.
…. and also for country of origin (brain drain ?)
Natives
Employed
Boom & Slumps
00
07
14Q1
15.15
17.48
15.18
 (07/00) (14/07)
2.33
-2.30
Unemployed
2.36
1.39
4.85
-0.97
3.46
Lab. Force
17.51
18.87 20.03
1.36
1.16
……………………………………………………………………………………
U- rate (%)
13.13
7.36
23.90
LFP-rate (%)
53.15
56.95
57.44
……………………………………………………………………………………
Immigrants
00
07
14Q1
(07/00)
(14/07)
Employed
0.53
2.85
1.78
2.32
-1.07
Unemployed
0.10
0.38
1.07
0.28
0.69
Lab. Force
0.63
3.23
2.85
2.60
-0.38
…………………………………………………………………………………….
U-rate (%)
15.87
11.76
37.54
LFP-rate (%)
72.56
76.35
74.02
Policies & controls
Selective policies (points, quotas) & circular migration
 Temporary Work Visa (TWV)
≈ visa I-688B (USA)
•
3+2 years: Initial pay (non- recoverable) : € 600
•
Recoverable pay (bond/deposit): € 1.500-2.000  Cost
•
Family unification: basic core
→ Fighting marginality : Incentives to human capital
accumulation, higher bargaining power
 Labour & Education reforms → Integration
 What to do with “irregulars”?
•
Regularize (Fine: € 1.000+ TWV for 6 months …+ TWV 3+2)
•
Coordination Schengen borders & FRONTEX
•
EU harmonization on refugees
 News media (migration or marginality → crime ?)
(2013: 3.600 in cayucos by sea vs. 300.000 inflow)
 Sign bilateral agreements for electoral participation.
 Open many more Employment Counselling Offices in
countries of origin
 Facilitate access to Public Adm. (Army: 7%)
EPITAPH
In 1964 Der Spiegel devoted its headline to Portuguese citizen
Armando Rodríguez, celebrating that he had become the onemillion-th. immigrant in Germany. He was awarded a Mercedes
car in a ceremony presided by the Minister of Labour.
Those were the times when immigrants were welcome because
they were considered essential for prosperity …
... At the beginning of the 1970s, when optimism vanished, they
suddenly became undesirable aliens and a threat for the welfare
state
Mark Mazower,
1998, NY, Knopf
Dark
Continent:
Europe´s
Twentieth
Century,
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!