Briefing Note 26 February 2014 New Open Europe/YouGov poll: A majority of Britons and Germans want a greater role for national parliaments in EU decision-making and national control over several key policy areas A new YouGov poll for Open Europe and Open Europe Berlin finds that, while Britons and Germans think that the single market is beneficial, a majority of people in both countries think that decisions over key issues such as EU migrants’ access to benefits, employment laws, regional development subsidies, and police and criminal justice laws should be taken at the national level rather than at the EU level. For more information, please contact Open Europe on 0044 (0)207 197 2333; Stephen Booth on 0044 (0)788 16 258 89 or Pawel Swidlicki on 0044 (0) 796 60 701 72. www.openeurope.org.uk Follow us on Twitter This cross country support for greater national control over key policy areas provides an encouraging basis for David Cameron’s bid to secure Angela Merkel’s support for a reformed EU that does less but better. If this is ever to become a reality, now is the time for Cameron to set out a series of proposals for reform that can be road tested with leaders and electorates across Europe – starting with Merkel and Germany. In both Britain and Germany a clear majority feel that national parliaments, rather than the European Parliament, should act as the ultimate check on new EU laws. A total of 73% of Britons and 58% of Germans think that either every country’s national parliament or a group of national parliaments should be able to block proposed new EU laws. Only 8% of Britons and 21% of Germans think the European Parliament, rather than national parliaments, should have the right to block new EU laws. It is clear that Britons and Germans agree that the European Parliament is not the answer to the EU’s democratic deficit. National parliaments remain the ultimate source of democratic legitimacy and accountability and must therefore be given a greater say in the EU decision making process. Key points: • Germans are split on the future development of the EU. While 38% say they’d like a more integrated Europe with more decisions taken at the European level, 31% say they’d like a less integrated Europe and 9% favour complete German withdrawal. 14% favour the status quo. • Among British respondents, a less integrated Europe with more decisions taken nationally or locally, is by far the most favoured option (37%). 24% want complete British withdrawal, 15% favour the status quo and only 10% would like more integration with more decisions taken at the European level. This illustrates that rather than a straight in or out choice, the public has a clear desire for reform. It is now up to the UK Government to deliver a clear reform programme. Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 2 • While more German than British respondents were sympathetic towards the prospect of more EU integration, a majority in both countries think that national parliaments rather than the European Parliament should be the ultimate check on new EU laws. In the UK, 55% believe that every country’s national parliament should have the right to block new EU laws and 18% believe that a group of national parliaments working together should have the power to block EU laws – a total of 73%. In Germany, 36% favour a veto for the Bundestag over new EU laws and 22% are in favour of a group of national parliaments being able to block EU laws – a total of 58%. Only 8% of Britons and 21% of Germans think the European Parliament, rather than national parliaments, should have the right to block new EU laws. • Given the differing domestic parliamentary traditions in Britain (unitary) and Germany (federal), it is unsurprising that more British than German respondents tend towards every country’s national parliament rather than a group of national parliaments having the right to block EU laws. However, it is unclear whether people would take the same view if they were asked whether they agreed that a single national parliament in another member state could unilaterally block an EU proposal that was in Britain’s interests. Nevertheless, our findings illustrate the strong desire in both countries for a strengthened role for national parliaments as a check on EU power. • In four out of six key policy areas – EU migrants’ access to benefits, police and criminal justice laws, employment laws and regional development subsidies – a majority in both countries said that decisions should be taken at the national rather than at the EU level (see table above). • There is clear support in both countries for further reductions to the overall level of the EU budget with this proving the single most popular option in both countries, albeit by a larger margin in Britain (47%) than in Germany (38%). More Germans said they would be happy to keep EU spending at its current level (34%) than Britons (20%) but neither showed any appetite for increasing EU spending – only 7% in the UK and 12% in Germany. • Of the EU’s three flagship projects – the single market, enlargement and the euro – the single market was considered to be beneficial by the biggest share of voters in both countries. 52% of British voters said the single market is beneficial while 26% said it is not beneficial and 23% are undecided. 74% of German voters said it was beneficial, while 19% said it isn’t, and 8% said they don’t know. The shared British and German view that the single market is beneficial but that more policies should be decided nationally rather than at the EU level suggests an appetite in both countries for a slimmed down, more trade focused EU. • Both British (55%) and German (48%) voters tend to view the impact of EU migrants on their country negatively. A smaller share of voters in both Britain (42%) and Germany (42%) said EU migrants negatively impacted on them personally, while a larger share in Germany (41%) than in Britain (30%) feel that EU migrants have a positive impact on them personally. • When asked to choose from a list of EU leaders to potentially replace their current leader, 32% of British voters opted for replacing David Cameron with Angela Merkel, who was way out in front of the rest of the field, with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte the second most popular choice, but only by 4% of respondents (49% didn’t know who to choose). German voters, on the other hand, either didn’t know (41%) who to replace Angela Merkel with or opted for leaders who were not named on our list (31%). It seems none of the options listed were deemed adequate replacements for ‘Mutti’! Methodology note All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 1065 German adults and 2141 GB adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 19th and 21st February 2014. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all German and GB adults (aged 18+). Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 3 Germans split on ‘more or less’ Europe, while British favour less integration over withdrawal People hold different views about how they would like to see the EU develop. Which of these statements comes closest to your view? 100% 90% 80% 70% Don't know 60% More integration 50% Status quo Less integration 40% Withdrawal 30% 20% 10% 0% Britain Germany • Our poll finds that Germans are split on the future development of the EU. While 38% say they’d like a more integrated Europe with more decisions taken at the European level, 31% say they’d like a less integrated Europe and 9% favour complete German withdrawal. 14% favour the status quo. • Among British voters, a less integrated Europe with more decisions taken nationally or locally, is by far the most favoured option (37%). 24% want complete British withdraw, 15% favour the status quo and only 10% would like more integration with more decisions taken at the European level. The option of a less integrated Europe is most popular with voters across the main parties, winning the support of 54% of Conservative voters, 29% of Labour voters and 39% of Lib Dem voters. Even a sizeable minority of UKIP voters (26%) say that they prefer a less integrated Europe over complete withdrawal. • For cultural and historical reasons, German national instincts are for the country to be closely tied to Europe and the EU, particularly when EU issues are discussed at the macro level. However, as the results below show, when broken down to more specific policy areas there is significant overlap between the views of British and German respondents and this shows there is ample scope for the two governments to work together to reform the EU. Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 4 A majority of British and German voters want national parliaments to be able to block new EU laws Thinking about the introduction of new EU laws, which one of the following statements best reflects your view? (German voters) Every country’s national parliament should have the right to block proposed new EU laws 14% A number of EU countries’ national parliaments should be able to work together to block proposed new EU laws 8% The European Parliament, rather than national parliaments, should have the right to block proposed new EU laws 35% 21% None of the above 22% Don’t know Thinking about the introduction of new EU laws, which one of the following statements best reflects your view? (British voters) Every country’s national parliament should have the right to block proposed new EU laws A number of EU countries’ national parliaments should be able to work together to block proposed new EU laws 15% 4% 8% The European Parliament, rather than national parliaments, should have the right to block proposed new EU laws 55% None of the above 18% Don’t know Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 5 • While more German than British voters support the prospect of greater EU integration, a clear majority of voters in both countries want their national parliaments to have stronger powers to block EU laws. • In Britain, 55% believe that every country’s national parliament should have the right to block new EU laws and 18% believe that a group of national parliaments working together should have the power to block EU laws – a total of 73%. • In Germany, 36% favour a veto for the Bundestag over new EU laws and 22% are in favour of a group of national parliaments being able to block EU laws – a total of 58%. • In both countries, the proportion believing the European Parliament should have powers to block EU laws was low: 21% in Germany and 8% in Britain. • Both countries share the view that democracy in Europe should be grounded at the national level and this reflects voter apathy in European elections and the declining approval rating of EU institutions, particularly the European parliament.1 • Given the different domestic parliamentary traditions in Britain (unitary) and Germany (federal), it is unsurprising that more British than German respondents support the right for every country’s national parliament - rather than a group of national parliaments - to block EU laws. However, it is unclear whether people would take the same view if they were asked whether they agreed that a single national parliament in another member state could unilaterally block a proposal that was in Britain’s interests. Nevertheless, our findings illustrate the strong desire in both countries for a strengthened role for national parliaments as a check on EU power. • There are a number of ways in which the role of national parliaments could be strengthened, for example via a new ‘Red Card’ mechanism to block new and/or scrap existing EU legislation which would be triggered by a group of national parliaments. The Dutch have also suggested a ‘Green Card’ which would allow national parliaments to propose new policies to the European Commission, including the amendment or repeal of existing EU laws.2 This issue should be high on the agenda for an Anglo-German agreement on EU reform. Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 6 Both Britons and Germans favour national control over key policy areas Should the following decisions be taken at the national or EU level? Policy Area Britain Germany National level EU level National level EU level 72% 81% 70% 48% 45% 66% 17% 8% 19% 38% 43% 19% 53% 56% 58% 29% 25% 63% 39% 37% 34% 62% 68% 25% EU migrants' access to benefits Police and criminal justice laws Employment laws Trade policy Energy and climate change policy Regional development subsidies • A majority of voters in both countries believe that decisions over issues such as EU migrants’ access to benefits, police and criminal justice laws, employment laws and regional development subsidies should be taken at the national level rather than at the EU level. • In Britain, a majority of Labour voters disagree with their party leadership’s policy of having employment law decided at the EU level with 60% believing that these decisions should be taken at a national level. A large majority of Lib Dem voters disagree with their party leadership’s policy of giving the EU greater powers over UK police and criminal justice laws with 75% believing that these decisions should be taken at a national level. • In Germany, voters feel that energy and climate change policy and trade policy are better decided at the EU level rather than at the national level. In Britain, voters feel that these policy areas would be better handled at the national level, albeit by a much smaller margin than the other policy areas listed above. • Regional development subsidies are the policy area in which voters in both countries are most closely aligned, with 63% of Germans and 66% of Brits believing that these should be decided at the national level compared with 25% and 19% respectively who believed these should be taken at the EU level. This suggests that devolving control of regional spending back to wealthier member states (those with a GDP per capita above 90% of the EU average) such as the UK and Germany could be a particularly promising area for an Anglo-German bargain on EU reform.3 • The biggest difference between German and British voters is over the question of police and criminal justice laws. Although a majority of voters in both countries agree such decisions should be taken at the national level, Germany is much more evenly split. In Britain the margin in favour of national control (73%) is much higher than in Germany (19%), which is a reflection of how particularly sensitive this issue is to British voters. • These results provide an interesting guide for how Cameron should approach negotiations with Merkel. If he is able to put forward an EU reform package based on specific policy areas, he is likely to get a more sympathetic audience, not least from Merkel as this would suit the pragmatic, step by step approach which she is well known to favour. Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 7 A majority of respondents in both countries strongly endorse the single market as a success How beneficial, if at all, do you think the following have been for your country? (British voters) Single Market Euro Enlargement 0 10 20 Beneficial 30 40 Not Beneficial 50 60 70 80 Don't know How beneficial, if at all, do you think the following have been for your country? (German voters) Single Market Euro Enlargement 0 10 20 Beneficial 30 40 Not Beneficial 50 60 70 80 Don't know • Of the EU’s three flagship projects – the single market, enlargement and the euro – the single market was considered to be beneficial by the biggest share of voters in both countries. • 52% of British voters said the single market is beneficial while 26% said it is not beneficial and 23% are undecided. 74% of German voters said it was beneficial, while 19% said it wasn’t, and 8% did not know. Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 8 • Despite the eurozone crisis, 59% of German voters said that the euro is beneficial, while 36% said it was not. • Voters in both countries are sceptical that enlargement has been beneficial to their country. A total of 59% in Germany and 54% in Britain feel it has not been beneficial. This final result is somewhat surprising given that both countries have traditionally been seen as proponents of EU enlargement towards the East. • This supports the view that the single market remains vital to the EU and should be its core focus. This is something nearly all the key players can agree on. It also suggests that Germany could be sympathetic to the introduction of safeguards to prevent the single market from being potentially undermined through closer Eurozone integration. Broad support in Britain and Germany for further reductions in the EU budget Do you think the overall level of the EU budget should be…? Reduced About the same Germany Britain Increased Don't know 0 10 20 30 40 50 • There is clear support in both countries to further reduce the overall level of the EU budget with this proving the single most popular option in both countries, albeit by a larger margin in Britain (47%) than in Germany (38%). More Germans said they would be happy to keep EU spending at its current level (34%) than Brits (20%) but neither showed any appetite for increasing EU spending – only 7% in Britain and 12% in Germany. • This is to a large extent what would be expected and highlights that the two governments were right to form an alliance to produce the first cut in the EU budget last year.4 However, it also suggests that many voters are not yet happy with the state and size of the EU budget. The British government should continue to push for reductions in the EU budget, particularly at the 2016 mid-term review. There is a good chance it can garner support from Germany for these efforts. As previous questions highlight, one specific proposal which may gain support is overhauling regional spending and returning much of it to the national level. Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 9 Concern about EU migration is present in both countries, although less so on a personal level Thinking about the advantages and disadvantages of immigration, how positive or negative would you assess the impact of EU migrants on you(r)...? (British voters) Country as a whole Local area Personally 0 10 20 Negative 30 Positive 40 50 60 Don't know Thinking about the advantages and disadvantages of immigration, how positive or negative would you assess the impact of EU migrants on you(r)...? (German voters) Country as a whole Local area Personally 0 10 20 Negative Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN 30 Positive 40 50 60 Don't know +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 10 • Both British (55%) and German (48%) voters tend to view the impact of EU migrants on their country negatively. A smaller share of voters in both Britain (42%) and Germany (42%) said EU migrants negatively impacted on them personally, while a larger share in Germany (41%) than in Britain (30%) feel that EU migrants have a positive impact on them personally. • These results provide some interesting insights. Firstly, it’s clear that concern over EU migration is present amongst the general populations of both Britain and Germany right across the political spectrum. • That being said, fewer people in each country said they felt personally negatively impacted by EU migration than believed their country was negatively impacted by it. What exactly accounts for this gap is unclear and requires further investigation. But the debate on migration is clearly more nuanced than is often made out. The British love Merkel, and so do the Germans If you could, which leader would you choose to replace your own? Germany Britain German Chancellor Angela Merkel UK Prime Minister David Cameron Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte Russian President Vladimir Putin French President François Hollande Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy Other Don’t know 7 6 6 4 2 2 1 31 41 32 4 3 3 1 1 1 7 49 • When asked to choose from a list of EU leaders to potentially replace their current leader, 32% of British voters opted for replacing David Cameron with Angela Merkel, who was way out in front of the rest of the field, with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte the second most popular choice, but by only 4% of respondents (49% didn’t know who to choose). • German voters, on the other hand, either didn’t know (41%) who to replace Angela Merkel with or opted for leaders who were not named on our list (31%). It seems none of the options were deemed adequate replacements for ‘Mutti’! But mutual support does not extend to the football pitch • When asked which other European team they might support if theirs was knocked out of the upcoming World Cup in Brazil only 8% of Germans said they would support England, while only 6% of Brits said they would support Germany. This shouldn’t be taken too personally though, Spain came top for both sets of respondents on 13% and 10% for Brits and Germans respectively, with the large majority saying they would not support another European team or did not know who they would support. Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 11 ANNEX: All questions and responses For a full break-down of the answers including demographical data and voting intentions see the links below. British sample: http://www.openeurope.org.uk/Content/Documents/Media/Results_OpenEurope_140221_British sample.xls German sample: http://www.openeurope.org.uk/Content/Documents/Media/Results_OpenEurope_EU_140221_German sample.xls British Responses Q1. People hold different views about how they would like to see the European Union develop. Which of these statements comes closest to your view? A more politically and economically integrated Europe, with substantially more decisions taken at the European level (10%) The situation more or less as it is now (15%) A less integrated Europe than now with substantially more decisions taken at a national or local level (37%) Complete British withdrawal from the European Union (24%) Don’t know (14%) Q2. Do you think the overall level of the EU budget should be…? Reduced (47%) Increased (7%) Remain about the same (20%) Don’t know (26%) Q3. Do you think that each of the following decisions should be taken at the national level or at the EU level? (Please tick one option per row) EU migrants’ access to benefits National level (72%) EU level (17%) Don’t know (11%) Police and criminal justice laws National level (81%) EU level (8%) Don’t know (11%) Employment laws National level (70%) EU level (19%) Don’t know (11%) Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 12 Trade Policy National level (48%) EU level (38%) Don’t know (14%) Energy and climate change policies National level (45%) EU level (43%) Don’t know (13%) Regional development subsidies National level (66%) EU level (19%) Don’t know (15%) Q4. Thinking about the introduction of new EU laws, which one of the following statements best reflects your view? Every country’s national parliament should have the right to block proposed new EU laws (55%) A number of EU countries’ national parliaments should be able to work together to block proposed new EU laws (18%) The European Parliament, rather than national parliaments, should have the right to block proposed new EU laws (8%) None of the above (4%) Don’t know (15%) Q5. How beneficial, if at all, do you think the following have been for your country? (Please tick one option per row) The single currency (the Euro) Very beneficial (4%) Fairly beneficial (13%) Not very beneficial (29%) Not beneficial at all (35%) Don’t know (19%) The EU’s common trading zone (the Single Market) Very beneficial (17%) Fairly beneficial (35%) Not very beneficial (17%) Not beneficial at all (9%) Don’t know (23%) EU enlargement to include post-Communist countries Very beneficial (4%) Fairly beneficial (17%) Not very beneficial (28%) Not beneficial at all (26%) Don’t know (25%) Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 13 Q6. Thinking about the advantages and disadvantages of immigration, how positive or negative would you assess the impact of EU migrants on…? Britain as a whole Very positive (5%) Fairly positive (26%) Fairly negative (26%) Very negative (29%) Don’t know (13%) My local area Very positive (5%) Fairly positive (26%) Fairly negative (28%) Very negative (20%) Don’t know (21%) Me personally Very positive (6%) Fairly positive (24%) Fairly negative (25%) Very negative (17%) Don’t know (28%) Q7. If you could replace your current leader for another European leader, which one of the following would you choose? German Chancellor Angela Merkel (32%) Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (4%) French President François Hollande (3%) Russian President Vladimir Putin (3%) Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi (1%) Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (1%) Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (1%) Other (7%) Don’t know (49%) Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 14 German Responses Q1. People hold different views about how they would like to see the European Union develop. Which of these statements comes closest to your view? A more politically and economically integrated Europe, with substantially more decisions taken at the European level (38%) The situation more or less as it is now (14%) A less integrated Europe than now with substantially more decisions taken at a national or local level (31%) Complete German withdrawal from the European Union (9%) Don’t know (9%) Q2. Do you think the overall level of the EU budget should be…? Reduced (38%) Increased (12%) Remain about the same (34%) Don’t know (15%) Q3. Do you think that each of the following decisions should be taken at the national level or at the EU level? (Please tick one option per row) EU migrants’ access to benefits National level (53%) EU level (39%) Don’t know (8%) Police and criminal justice laws National level (56%) EU level (37%) Don’t know (8%) Employment laws National level (58%) EU level (34%) Don’t know (8%) Trade Policy National level (29%) EU level (62%) Don’t know (9%) Energy and climate change policies National level (25%) EU level (68%) Don’t know (7%) Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 15 Regional development subsidies National level (63%) EU level (25%) Don’t know (11%) Q4. Thinking about the introduction of new EU laws, which one of the following statements best reflects your view? Every country’s national parliament should have the right to block proposed new EU laws (36%) A number of EU countries’ national parliaments should be able to work together to block proposed new EU laws (22%) The European Parliament, rather than national parliaments, should have the right to block proposed new EU laws (21%) None of the above (8%) Don’t know (14%) Q5. How beneficial, if at all, do you think the following have been for your country? (Please tick one option per row) The single currency (the Euro) Very beneficial (25%) Fairly beneficial (34%) Not very beneficial (19%) Not beneficial at all (17%) Don’t know (6%) The EU’s common trading zone (the Single Market) Very beneficial (32%) Fairly beneficial (42%) Not very beneficial (13%) Not beneficial at all (6%) Don’t know (8%) EU enlargement to include post-Communist countries Very beneficial (6%) Fairly beneficial (22%) Not very beneficial (35%) Not beneficial at all (24%) Don’t know (14%) Q6. Thinking about the advantages and disadvantages of immigration, how positive or negative would you assess the impact of EU migrants on…? Germany as a whole Very positive (10%) Fairly positive (34%) Fairly negative (30%) Very negative (18%) Don’t know (9%) Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected] Briefing Note 16 My local area Very positive (7%) Fairly positive (33%) Fairly negative (31%) Very negative (17%) Don’t know (12%) Me personally Very positive (8%) Fairly positive (33%) Fairly negative (28%) Very negative (14%) Don’t know (17%) Q7. If you could replace your current leader for another European leader, which one of the following would you choose? UK Prime Minister David Cameron (7%) Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (6%) Russian President Vladimir Putin (6%) French President François Hollande (4%) Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi (2%) Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (2%) Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (1%) Other (31%) Don’t know (41%) 1 Net trust in the EP in Germany has declined from +20 to -3 between Spring 2004 and Autumn 2013 according to Eurobarometer surveys. In the UK it has declined from -14 to -40 over the same period. Similarly, in Open Europe previous poll ahead of the German federal elections, 45% of Germans said they trusted the Bundestag compared to only 33% for the EP. See link for more details: http://www.openeurope.org.uk/Content/Documents/PDFs/130917briefingpoll2.pdf 2 Dutch House of Representatives, ‘Courtesy translation of Position paper of Dutch House of Representatives on Democratic Legitimacy in the EU & the role of national parliaments’, 17 October 2013 http://www.tweedekamer.nl/images/Position_paper_Dutch_House_of_Representatives_on_democratic_legitimacy_in_the_EU_181-236606.doc 3 For more details on this policy, see Open Europe’s proposal for overhauling the EU’s structural and cohesion funds: http://www.openeurope.org. uk/Article/Page/en/LIVE?id=8368 4 Open Europe flash analysis, ‘What does the EU budget deal mean for the UK and Europe?’, February 2013: http://www.openeurope.org.uk/Article/ Page/en/LIVE?id=9905&page=FlashAnalysis Open Europe, 7 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QN +44 (0)20 7197 2333 [email protected]