El ascenso del yuan a moneda global pone a prueba las políticas

(\1(ODVFHQVRGHO\XDQDPRQHGDJOREDOSRQHDSUXHEDODVSROtWLFDVGH%HLMLQJ
0LHUFROHVGH'LFGH_KUV
1RWLFLDV
0HUFDGRV
,QGLFDGRUHV
)LQDQ]DV3HUVRQDOHV
'yODU2EV_,36$
)RQGRV0XWXRV
(PSUHQGHGRUHV\(PSUHVDV
8)
,3&
(O)RQGR0RQHWDULR,QWHUQDFLRQDOORLQFOX\yHQVXVHOHFWLYDFDQDVWDGHPRQHGDVGHUHVHUYD
El ascenso del yuan a moneda global pone a prueba
las políticas de Beijing
PLpUFROHVGHGLFLHPEUHGH
7ZHHW
Lingling Wei y Fiona Law
The Wall Street Journal Americas
El Mercurio
0LHQWUDV&KLQDEXVFDWUDQTXLOL]DUDVXVVRFLRVFRPHUFLDOHVORVPHUFDGRVSUHGLFHQTXHHOSDtVVHQWLUiODSUHVLyQGH
GHMDUTXHVXPRQHGDVHGHSUHFLHSDUDUHDQLPDUFUHFLPLHQWR
%(,-,1*(OFRPSURPLVRGH&KLQDGHXQ\XDQPiVOLEUHVHHQIUHQWDDSUXHEDVLQPHGLDWDVFRPRODSUHVLyQTXHHOPHQRU
ULWPRGHFUHFLPLHQWRHFRQyPLFRHMHUFHVREUHVXEDQFRFHQWUDOSDUDTXHGHELOLWHODPRQHGD
(O%DQFR3RSXODUGH&KLQDSURPHWLyGHQXHYRHOPDUWHVPDQWHQHUODGLYLVDPD\RUPHQWHHVWDEOHOXHJRGHTXHHO)RQGR
0RQHWDULR,QWHUQDFLRQDOODLQFOX\yHQVXVHOHFWLYDFDQDVWDGHPRQHGDVGHUHVHUYDFRQRFLGDFRPRGHUHFKRVHVSHFLDOHVGH
JLURR'(*/RVFRPHQWDULRVDSXQWDURQDGLVLSDUFXDOTXLHUSUHRFXSDFLyQGHTXHWUDVODGHFLVLyQGHO)0,&KLQDVHVHQWLUtD
OLEUHSDUDGHYDOXDUHO\XDQODXQLGDGEDVHGHODPRQHGDFRQRFLGDFRPRUHQPLQELFRQHOILQGHLPSXOVDUHOFUHFLPLHQWR
1RKD\QHFHVLGDGGHWDOSUHRFXSDFLyQGLMR<L*DQJXQRGHORVYLFHJREHUQDGRUHVGHO%DQFR3RSXODUGH&KLQDHQXQD
FRQIHUHQFLDGHSUHQVD<LDVHJXUyTXH&KLQDPDQWHQGUiXQVLVWHPDGHIORWDFLyQDGPLQLVWUDGDDQWHVGHODWUDQVLFLyQJUDGXDOD
XQDIORWDFLyQOLPSLDGHO\XDQXQREMHWLYRDODUJRSOD]RTXHLPSOLFDUtDTXHHOEDQFRFHQWUDOQRLQWHUYHQJDRLQIOX\DHQHO
FRQWUROGHOYDORUGHODPRQHGD
3RUDKRUDHOEDQFRFHQWUDOPDQWHQGUiVXLQWHUYHQFLyQHQORVPHUFDGRVFDPELDULRVSDUDHYLWDUIOXFWXDFLRQHVH[FHVLYDV
VHxDOy(VLPSRUWDQWHPDQWHQHUHOUHQPLQELHVWDEOHDXQQLYHOUD]RQDEOH\HTXLOLEUDGR
$XQTXHORVFRPHQWDULRVGH<LSRGUtDQWUDQTXLOL]DUDORVVRFLRVFRPHUFLDOHVGH&KLQDSUHRFXSDGRVSRUXQDSRWHQFLDO
GHYDOXDFLyQFRPSHWLWLYDVHSURGXFHQHQXQPRPHQWRHQTXHORVPHUFDGRVSUHGLFHQTXH&KLQDVHQWLUiODSUHVLyQGHGHMDUTXH
HO\XDQVHGHSUHFLHSDUDUHDQLPDUHOFUHFLPLHQWR,QYHUVLRQLVWDV\DQDOLVWDVFUHHQTXHODPRQHGDFKLQDHVWiKR\VREUHYDOXDGD
HQUHODFLyQFRQVXSRGHUGHFRPSUDORTXHREOLJDDODVHPSUHVDVFKLQDVDUHGXFLUSUHFLRV\UHEDMDUVDODULRVSDUDPDQWHQHUOD
FRPSHWLWLYLGDGIDFWRUHVTXHDVXYH]SRGUtDQOOHYDUDODHFRQRPtDDXQDGHIODFLyQ
(QIULDPLHQWRGHODHFRQRPtD
8QLQIRUPHSXEOLFDGRHOPDUWHVUHYHOyTXHXQLQGLFDGRURILFLDOGHODDFWLYLGDGPDQXIDFWXUHUDGH&KLQDFD\yHQQRYLHPEUHDVX
QLYHOPiVEDMRHQPiVGHWUHVDxRVXQDVHxDOGHTXHODVHJXQGDPD\RUHFRQRPtDGHOPXQGRSXHGHHVWDUHQIULiQGRVHD~Q
PiVDSHVDUGHXQDVHULHGHPHGLGDVGHHVWtPXORGHOJRELHUQR
+DEUiXQDGHSUHFLDFLyQJUDGXDOGHO\XDQHQGLFH3XD\<HRQJ*RKHFRQRPLVWDVpQLRUGH1HXEHUJHU%HUPDQILUPDGH
JHVWLyQGHLQYHUVLRQHVGH1XHYD<RUN(VWRVHUtDXQDFRUUHFFLyQGHODGHVFRPXQDODSUHFLDFLyQGHO\XDQGXUDQWHHO~OWLPR
DxR
/DPRQHGDFKLQDVLJXHUHODWLYDPHQWHIXHUWHVHJ~QGLYHUVRVSDUiPHWURV'HVGHHOGHDJRVWRFXDQGRHOEDQFRFHQWUDOOR
GHYDOXyGHIRUPDLQHVSHUDGDHQFHUFDGHHO\XDQKDFDtGRIUHQWHDOGyODUSHURVHKDIRUWDOHFLGRIUHQWHDOHXUR\VHKD
GHELOLWDGRVyOROLJHUDPHQWHFRQWUDXQDFDQDVWDGHPRQHGDV
/DIRUWDOH]DUHODWLYDGHO\XDQHVHQJUDQSDUWHDWULEXLEOHDODVLQWHUYHQFLRQHVGHOEDQFRFHQWUDO/DGHYDOXDFLyQGHDJRVWR
GHVDWyXQDIXHUWHRODGHYHQWDVWDQWRGHQWURFRPRIXHUDGH&KLQDORTXHOOHYyDOEDQFRDDFWXDUSDUDHYLWDUXQp[RGRGH
FDSLWDOHV$%HLMLQJWDPELpQOHSUHRFXSDEDTXHXQDGHSUHFLDFLyQPD\RUGHO\XDQSHUMXGLFDUDODSUREDELOLGDGGHFRQVHJXLUTXHHO
)0,ORLQFOX\HUDHQWUHODVPRQHGDVGHUHVHUYDJOREDOHV
(OGHVHRGHORVOtGHUHVFKLQRVGHSURPRYHUXQPD\RUXVRGHO\XDQHQWRGRHOPXQGRHVRWURDUJXPHQWRDIDYRUGHXQDPRQHGD
UHODWLYDPHQWHHVWDEOHGLFH7DQ9DQDVHJXLUPDQWHQLHQGRXQDSROtWLFDGHHVWDELOLGDGSDUDGHPRVWUDUTXHHOUHQPLQELGHEHUtD
VHUYLVWRFRPRXQDFWLYRGHUHIXJLRVHJXUR
&KLQDWDPELpQVHHQIUHQWDDODSUHVLyQH[WHUQDSDUDTXHQRGHYDO~HHO\XDQGHIRUPDEUXVFD3DUWLFXODUPHQWHGXUDQWHXQDxR
HOHFWRUDOHQ(VWDGRV8QLGRVXQ\XDQPiVEDUDWRUHQRYDUtDODVDFXVDFLRQHVGHTXH&KLQDPDQWLHQHVXPRQHGDDUWLILFLDOPHQWH
EDMDSDUDD\XGDUDVXVH[SRUWDFLRQHV(VSHUDPRVTXHODGHSUHFLDFLyQGHOUHQPLQELVHDJUDGXDO\RSRUWXQLVWDGLFH:DQJ
7DRHFRQRPLVWDGH8%6$*SDUD&KLQD
6HJ~Q:DQJHQOXJDUGHPRYLPLHQWRVTXHGHVHQFDGHQHQODGHSUHFLDFLyQDJXGDGHO\XDQHOEDQFRFHQWUDOSRGUtDJXLDUOD
PRQHGDDODEDMDPHGLDQWHHOYDORUGHFDPELRTXHILMDGLDULDPHQWHFXDQGRHOGyODUVHDSUHFLDFRQWUDRWUDVGLYLVDVLPSRUWDQWHV
/DHFRQRPLVWDSUHYpTXHHO\XDQVHGHELOLWHIUHQWHDOGyODUHQ
$XQDVtDOJXQRVH[SHUWRVFUHHQTXH&KLQDGHEHUtDDFHOHUDUVXVHVIXHU]RVSDUDGDUDOPHUFDGRXQSDSHOPiVLPSRUWDQWHHQOD
GHWHUPLQDFLyQGHOYDORUGHO\XDQ/DGHYDOXDFLyQGHDJRVWRIXHFRQFHELGDFRPRXQSDVRHQHVDGLUHFFLyQDOVLWXDUODILMDFLyQ
GHO\XDQPiVHQOtQHDFRQODVWDVDVGHFDPELRGHOPHUFDGR6LQHPEDUJRHO%DQFR3RSXODUUHYLUWLyUiSLGDPHQWHHVHUXPER
FXDQGRODPHGLGDGLVSDUyXQDIXHUWHYHQWDGH\XDQHVWDQWRHQ&KLQDFRPRHQORTXHVHFRQRFHFRPRHOPHUFDGRRIIVKRUHGH
KWWSZZZHFRQRPLD\QHJRFLRVFOQRWLFLDVQRWLFLDVDVS"LG (\1(ODVFHQVRGHO\XDQDPRQHGDJOREDOSRQHDSUXHEDODVSROtWLFDVGH%HLMLQJ
+RQJ.RQJ
/DUHIRUPDGHOWLSRGHFDPELRGHOGHDJRVWRQRIXHYLVWDFRPRRSRUWXQD\DTXHOOHJyHQHOFRQWH[WRGHWXUEXOHQFLDVHQHO
PHUFDGRGHYDORUHVXQDGHVDFHOHUDFLyQGHODHFRQRPtD\XQIRUWDOHFLPLHQWRGHOGyODUDVHYHUD*XDQ7DRXQH[IXQFLRQDULR
GHOiUHDFDPELDULD\DKRUDLQYHVWLJDGRUVpQLRUHQ&)XQFHQWURGHHVWXGLRVFRQVHGHHQ%HLMLQJ
6LELHQHVSUREDEOHTXHODLQFOXVLyQGHO\XDQHQWUHODVPRQHGDVGHUHVHUYDDXPHQWHHODWUDFWLYRGHORVDFWLYRVFKLQRVSDUDORV
LQYHUVLRQLVWDVH[WUDQMHURVHQHOODUJRSOD]RHVWRVUHWLUDURQ86PLOORQHVGHORVERQRVORFDOHVHQDJRVWR\VHSWLHPEUH
FRQWUDHQWUDGDVSURPHGLRGH86PLOORQHVDOPHVKDVWDMXOLRVHJ~QGDWRVGHO%DQFR3RSXODUGH&KLQD(VRVIXHURQORV
~QLFRVGRVPHVHVVHJXLGRVHQORVTXHVHUHJLVWUDURQPiVVDOLGDVTXHHQWUDGDVGHVGHTXHHOEDQFRFHQWUDOFRPHQ]yD
SXEOLFDUHVWRVGDWRVDILQDOHVGH
$XQTXHORVH[WUDQMHURVWLHQHQDSHQDVGHOPHUFDGRGHGHXGDFKLQRTXHDVFLHQGHD86ELOORQHVHOVXWLOFDPELRVH
UHJLVWUyPLHQWUDV%HLMLQJVHDFHUFDEDDVXREMHWLYRGHFRQVHJXLUTXHHO\XDQIXHUDGHFODUDGRPRQHGDGHUHVHUYDSRUHO)0,
$VHJXUDUHOHVWDWXVGHUHVHUYDGHO\XDQHVRWURWURIHRSDUD%HLMLQJGLFH*RUGRQ,SJHVWRUGHIRQGRVGH9DOXH3DUWQHUV
*URXS/WGGH+RQJ.RQJTXHDGPLQLVWUD86PLOORQHVHQDFWLYRV¢3HURYDHVRDGHVDWDUXQDRODGHFRPSUDGH
ERQRVHQUHQPLQELV",PSUREDEOH
5HQPLQEL
'HVGHHOGHDJRVWRFXDQGRHOEDQFRFHQWUDOORGHYDOXyGHIRUPDLQHVSHUDGDHQFHUFDGHHO\XDQKDFDtGRIUHQWHDO
GyODUSHURVHKDIRUWDOHFLGRIUHQWHDOHXUR
7pUPLQRV\FRQGLFLRQHVGHORVVHUYLFLRV‹
KWWSZZZHFRQRPLD\QHJRFLRVFOQRWLFLDVQRWLFLDVDVS"LG