Economic relations between Mexico and China - Inter

Latin America/Caribbean and Asia/Pacific
Economics and Business Association
An initiative of the Inter-American Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank Institute
Seventh LAEBA Annual Meeting
Washington DC, USA – January 31st, 2012
Economic relations between Mexico and China
Enrique Dussels
Sponsored by Inter­American Development Bank Integration and Trade Sector Institute for the Integration of Latin American and the Caribbean (INTAL) ECONOMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN
MEXICO AND CHINA
CHINA.
Conditions, Challenges and Expectations
ENRIQUE DUSSEL PETERS
G d t School
Graduate
S h l off E
Economics,
i UNAM
Coordinator
C t ffor Chi
Center
Chinese-Mexican
M i
Studies
St di
National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)
http://dusselpeters.com
http://www.economia.unam.mx/cechimex
“Taking Stock of the LAC-Asia Relationship”, IDB
Washington, D.C., January 31st, 2012
TOPICS
z
Recent research in LAC on LAC-China
z General context in China
z Mexico-China Economic Relationship
z Conclusions
C
l i
and
d Proposals
P
l
RESEARCH IN LAC
z
Insufficient but increasing research:
– Regional: ECLAC (since 2004),
2004) BID,
BID (since 2004) + WB +
–
–
–
–
–
OECD, … Lall, Jenkins/Dussel Peters (several, including
2009), Gallagher/Porzecanski (2010), …
Argentina: López and Ramos, Starobinsky, Moneta,
Casarín, … several business organizations
Brasil: Saslovsky/Rozemberg
Saslovsky/Rozemberg, Barbosa/Guimaraes
Barbosa/Guimaraes, Chami
Batista, Castro (2011), Campinhas and USP, … CEBC
México: De la Calle, Cornejo, Dussel Peters/Trapaga,
Oropeza, … ITESM, Colmex, Cechimex/UNAM, .. Several
business organizations
Cuba Venezuela,
Cuba,
Venezuela Perú (PUC
(PUC, UP)
UP), Colombia
Colombia, Chile
Chile, …
AND in China (CASS, CICIR, …)
DEBATES IN LAC ON CHINA (1)
™Conceptual discussions: “Maonomics” + public sector
vs. market-led development? Conceptual implications?
™Long-term national strategy vs. EOI + relevance for
agricultural sector, FDI, SOEs, domestic market, higher
value-added
value
added products,
products “indigenous”
indigenous innovation policies
… strategies + evaluation + resources (and results)
™Significant positive effects on terms of trade
(J ki /D
(Jenkins/Dussel
l Peters)
P
) andd FDI (ECLAC 2011)
™Based on case studies: clear specialization in low valueadded raw materials (X) vis
vis-à-vis
à vis higher value
value-added
added
manufactured imports (M) + effective “downgrading”
in several cases (Argentina, Mexico, …) …
unsustainable
t i bl economic
i andd technological
t h l i l relation?
l ti ?
DEBATES IN LAC ON CHINA (2)
™Substantial statistical differences. But: important trade
deficit for LAC … sustainability?
™Increasing FDI and trade relation, but institutional
weaknesses in the region and binationally: public,
private and academic sectors
™Regional and multilateral institutions on LAC-China?
™In CHINA: a. LAC is increasingly “fashionable”, b.
awareness off its
i economic,
i FDI andd trade
d importance,
i
c. White Paper (2008), regional and bilateral policies
(FTAs, CA & Caribbean, …)
™BUT: “very” insufficient, for example: effects of
China´s trade
Chi
t d andd FDI iin local
l l andd regional
i l terms,
t
new
forms of IO, employment, supplier systems,
environment…??
Domestic credit to private sector (as a percentage of GDP) (1960-2010)
250
200
150
Argentina
Brasil
Chile
China
OCDE
América Latina y el Caribe
México
Estados Unidos
100
50
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Source: own ellaboration based on WB (2012).
(2012)
2000
2005
LAC: TRADE BALANCE BY SPECIFIC COUNTRIES (IN $1,000) (1989‐2010)
140 000 000
140,000,000
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
China
EU25
United States
World
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
‐20,000,000
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
‐40,000,000
‐60,000,000
‐80,000,000
Source: own ellabora on based on Comtrade (2011).
CONDITIONS AND
CHALLENGES FOR
MEXICO´S
SOCIOECONOMY
DEBATES IN MEXICO ON CHINA (1)
™In general, tense diplomatic and political relationship,
2011, the worst since 1972
Crisis of manufacturing since 2000
™ Overall “comercialización”
comercialización of relationship
™ Tariff and antidumping policies (2001-2011)
™ Weak existing bilateral institutions
™ No high
high-level
level support of existing institutions
™ No short-, medium- and long-term agenda on China
™
ECONOMIC AND TRAD CONDITIONS
BETWEEN MEXICO AND CHINA (2)
™Statistical differences
™Trade in the US
™Overall trade
™Disaggregated
Di
t d trade
t d specialization
i li ti
™Intraindustry trade
™What kind of imports?
p
™Tariffs
™Chinese FDI
ECONOMIC AND TRAD CONDITIONS
BETWEEN MEXICO AND CHINA (3)
Comparación de las importaciones de China con las importaciones de América Latina y el Caribe (2011) (millones de dólares)
(algunos casos seleccionados)
China: importaciones de ALC) (1)
Mundo
1,289,134
ALC
91,105
Argentina
6,804
Bolivia
189
Brasil
38,099
Colombia
2,103
,
Costa Rica
3,107
República Dominicana
131
Ecuador
507
8
El Salvador
Mé i
México
6 875
6,875
Perú
6,368
ALC: exportaciones a China (2)
Mundo
663,515
China
h
49,225
Argentina
5,799
Bolivia
208
Brasil
30,752
Colombia
1,966
,
Costa Rica
269
República Dominicana
127
Ecuador
329
El Salvador
3
Mé i
México
4 196
4,196
Perú
5,426
Fuente: elaboración propia con base en UN‐COMTRADE (2011).
VARIACIÓN (2) / (1)
‐48.5
‐46.0
‐14.8
10.1
‐19.3
‐6.5
‐91.3
‐2.9
‐35.2
‐56.0
‐39.0
39 0
‐14.8
ECONOMIC AND TRAD CONDITIONS
BETWEEN MEXICO AND CHINA
Comparacion de las exportaciones de China con las importaciones de America Latina y el Caribe (2010)
(algunos casos seleccionados)
China: exportaciones a ALC (1)
Mundo
1,577,764
ALC
91,248
Antigua y
Barbuda
806
Argentina
6 116
6,116
Bolivia
173
Brasil
24,461
Colombia
3,820
688
Costa Rica
Ecuador
1,496
El Salvador
365
Guatemala
1,018
Guyana
83
Jamaica
236
México
17,873
Panamá
11,967
Paraguay
1,051
Peru
3,550
,
República
Dominicana
904
ALC: importaciones de China (2)
Mundo
1,508,710
China
104,208
Antigua y Barbuda
Argentina
Bolivia
Brasil
Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Guyana
Jamaica
México
Panamá
Paraguay
Peru
República
Dominicana
VARIACIÓN (2) / (1)
‐4.4
114.2
42
7 649
7,649
533
25,536
5,477
991
1,607
483
984
85
243
45,608
4,173
3,433
5,115
,
5.2
125 1
125.1
308.1
104.4
143.4
144.0
107.4
132.2
96.6
101.4
103 1
103.1
255.2
34.9
326.8
144.1
1,616
178.7
Fuente: elaboración propia con base en UN‐COMTRADE (2011).
MEXICO: SHARE OVER TOTAL TRADE
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
TOTAL
UNITED
STATES
EUROPEAN
UNION
ASIA
CHINA
OTHER
100.00
100
00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100 00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100 00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
75.23
75
23
75.91
79.07
79.86
80 09
80.09
80.79
81.03
80.73
77 74
77.74
75.35
74.45
71.55
69.28
67.61
65.47
64.15
64.12
63.95
9.05
9
05
8.61
6.71
6.17
6 46
6.46
6.59
6.71
6.19
6 80
6.80
6.90
7.41
7.44
8.06
7.91
8.73
9.41
8.37
7.82
7.44
7
44
7.85
6.41
6.25
6 22
6.22
6.19
6.20
6.59
8 43
8.43
10.51
10.60
12.56
13.40
14.88
15.72
15.81
17.17
17.77
0.37
0
37
0.39
0.37
0.43
0 59
0.59
0.71
0.74
0.91
1 32
1.32
2.10
3.09
3.99
4.32
5.16
5.71
6.12
7.48
8.30
8.28
8
28
7.62
7.81
7.72
7 23
7.23
6.42
6.07
6.50
7 04
7.04
7.23
7.53
8.45
9.26
9.60
10.07
10.63
10.34
10.45
Source: own ellaboration based on Banxico (2011).
UNITED STATES: SHARE OVER TOTAL IMPORTS (1991-2010) (share over total)
25.00
20.00
15.00
China
Canadá
10.00
México
Japan
5.00
0.00
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: own ellaboration based on USITC (2011).
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
45.00
UNITED STATES: IMPORTS IN THE YTG CHAIN (1990‐2010)
40 00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
China
Vietnam
Mé ico
México
India
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Pakistan
15 00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: own ellabora on based on USITC (2011).
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Mexico: Exports to China ($US million)
26
27
29
72
74
84
85
86
87
Total
Ores,Slag,Ash
Oil
Organic Chemicals
Iron And Steel
Copper+Articles Thereof
Machinery
Electrical Machinery
Railway;Trf Sign Eq
Vehicles, Not Railway
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1995-2010
37
0
0
4
0
0
1
0
0
0
204
0
0
3
4
0
157
19
0
5
1,136
101
0
104
102
146
296
39
0
52
1,688
133
1
139
28
429
403
84
0
199
1,895
287
1
135
51
361
363
186
0
212
2,047
477
0
95
51
487
143
291
0
181
2,216
553
0
94
109
408
124
269
0
209
4,198
1,028
724
180
15
619
198
301
1
641
13,421
2,580
728
754
360
2,451
1 685
1,685
1,188
1
1,499
100.00
0.00
0.00
1.31
1.81
0.12
77.24
9.29
0.07
0
0
2.28
100.00
8.94
0.00
9.19
8.97
12.89
26.03
3.40
0.00
0
00
4.54
100.00
7.88
0.06
8.21
1.68
25.43
23.89
5.00
0.00
0
00
11.81
100.00
15.17
0.05
7.14
2.67
19.04
19.13
9.82
0.00
0
00
11.18
100.00
23.31
0.00
4.63
2.49
23.80
6.99
14.21
0.00
0
00
8.83
100.00
24.96
0.00
4.22
4.93
18.42
5.60
12.13
0.00
0
00
9.45
100.00
24.49
17.24
4.29
0.36
14.75
4.72
7.16
0.02
0
0
15.26
100.00
19.23
5.42
5.61
2.68
18.27
12.56
8.86
0.01
0
0
11.17
Source: own ellaboration based on SICM/CECHIMEX (2010).
26
27
29
72
74
84
85
86
87
Total
Ores,Slag,Ash
Oil
Organic Chemicals
Iron And Steel
Copper+Articles Thereof
Machinery
Electrical Machinery
Railway;Trf
a ay; S
Sign
g Eq
q
Vehicles, Not Railway
100.00
0.00
0.00
10.52
0.49
0.00
2.37
0.55
0.00
0
00
0.46
Source: own ellaboration based on SICM/CECHIMEX (2010).
Mexico: imports from China (1995-2010) ($million)
27
39
84
85
87
90
94
95
96
T t l
Total
Combustibles Minerales, Aceites M
Plástico Y Sus Manufacturas
Reactores Nucleares, Calderas, M
Máquinas, Aparatos Y Material Elé
Vehículos Automóviles, Tractores,
Instrumentos Y Aparatos De Óptic
M bl
Muebles;
M bili i Medicoquirúrg
Mobiliario
M di
iú
Juguetes, Juegos Y Artículos Para
Manufacturas Diversas
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
521
40
26
38
140
2
20
11
68
5
2,880
2
880
92
101
415
904
39
114
61
204
24
17,696
17
696
129
511
4,567
7,110
336
414
286
625
131
24,438
24
438
111
629
5,655
10,608
488
927
398
1,067
153
29,747
29
747
130
737
6,104
12,914
654
1,530
492
2,099
161
34,754
34
754
152
882
6,704
15,497
786
1,690
551
2,189
176
32,529
32
529
103
776
7,199
15,361
537
1,279
410
1,610
141
Source: own ellaboration based on SICM-CECHIMEX (2010).
2010
45,608
45
608
134
1,023
10,658
21,755
824
2,066
549
1,353
202
1995-2010
188,172
188
172
1,609
5,905
52,021
98,066
4,274
9,203
3 463
3,463
11,241
1,325
Mexico: intraindustry trade (percentage over total) (1995-2009)
China (fuente
WTA)
China (fuente CCS)
1995
0.01
0.01
1996
0.03
-1997
0.02
-1998
0.08
-1999
0 09
0.09
-2000
0.08
0.15
2001
0.11
0.24
2002
0.12
0.21
2003
0.07
-2004
0.05
0.19
2005
0.05
0.22
2006
0 06
0.06
0 21
0.21
2007
0.05
-2008
0.04
0.19
2009
0.04
0.19
1995-2000
0.09
0.13
2000-2009
0.06
0.21
Source: Cárdenas and Dussel Peters (2011).
USA
0.44
0.45
0.47
0.48
0 47
0.47
0.47
0.46
0.46
0.45
0.44
0.43
0 42
0.42
0.42
0.41
0.40
0.47
0.45
México: Importaciones Totales por tipo de bien 2000‐2010 (porcentaje sobre el total)
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2000‐2010
100.00
13.83
9 57
9.57
75.72
0.38
0.50
100.00
11.82
14 21
14.21
72.94
0.46
0.57
100.00
11.92
14 41
14.41
72.50
0.45
0.72
100.00
12.25
15 21
15.21
71.79
0.43
0.32
100.00
13.00
15 39
15.39
71.08
0.39
0.14
100.00
13.07
14 01
14.01
72.08
0.47
0.37
100.00
10.03
13 74
13.74
75.93
0.23
0.07
100.00
12.19
13 60
13.60
73.47
0.41
0.33
IMPORTACIONES DE CHINA
TOTAL
100 00
100.00
CAPITAL
16.65
CONSUMO
24.71
INTERMEDIOS
56.76
ENVASES
0.15
SIN DESCRIPCION
1.73
100.00
100
00
13.32
12.69
73.36
0.14
0.49
100.00
100
00
13.74
11.80
73.44
0.12
0.89
100.00
100
00
14.56
10.95
73.88
0.13
0.48
100.00
100
00
16.89
10.26
72.74
0.11
0.00
100.00
100
00
17.85
9.72
72.20
0.10
0.13
100.00
100
00
13.59
9.09
77.19
0.06
0.07
100.00
100
00
14.67
11.51
73.40
0.11
0.31
IMPORTACIONES TOTALES
TOTAL
CAPITAL
CONSUMO
INTERMEDIOS
ENVASES
SIN DESCRIPCION
Fuente: elaboración propia con base en Secretaría de Economía (2011).
CONCLUSIONS (1)
z
z
z
z
z
z
z
Until 2012: profound ignorance in LAC on China (both ways!)
But,, still,, some results …
Unsustainable economic and trade relationship (LAC/MxChina)?
In Mexico
Mexico, particularly difficult (but also as a result of deepest
research?)
In general, neither LAC nor Mexico, prepared for China
Particularly the private and public sectors: institutional
weaknesses
Little information on effects of trade ((also imports!!),
p
), FDI,, employment,
p y
,
regional effects, disaggregated analysis, …
z AND: NATIONAL AND REGIONAL AGENDA WITH CHINA?
FUTURE COMMON PROJECTS?
(LAC Australia,
(LAC,
A t li …)) (1)
z
z
z
z
z
z
Beyond the discussion on “opportunity
opportunity and threat”,
threat ,
concrete analysis + projects
Is LAC prepared for this “massive encounter” (trade,
OFDI, labor, environment, …)
Towards a “regional/LAC agenda with China” (public
and private sectors
sectors, academics
academics, …))
Private sector? Business Summits (since 2006),
sufficient?
In LAC: beyond “big countries”, missing: Cuba,
Centroamérica, Caribe, Perú, Ecuador, Bolivia, …
Experiences with OFDI in LAC and effects:
employment, environment, R&D, wages, …
FUTURE COMMON PROJECTS?
(LAC A
(LAC,
Australia,
t li …)) (2)
z
z
z
z
Effects
Eff
t off LAC
LAC-China
Chi on thi
third
d countries?
t i ? US
US, EU
EU,
Asia, Australia, …
Concrete cooperation opportunities in the short,
medium and long-term? Education, R&D, culture,
tourism, …
Needed: experiences and knowledge of OFDI in
concrete value-addec chains + regions (soya in
Salvador …))
Effects of China on: fiscal income, firms by level, …
FUTURE COMMON PROJECTS?
(LAC Australia
(LAC,
Australia, …)) (3)
PRIVATE SECTOR:
zPrepared for massive imports from China? See
Mexico´s and LAC´s experience
zLack of preparation: business plans, joint ventures,
sum existing experiences of firms, …
zAbility of “TOUGH” negotiations with China?
Learning process?
zCooperation and dialogue between business
organizations in LAC + US + EU + Australia …
zAbility of Mexico-Brasil to overcome regional
competition and bilateral “animosities”
animosities
zLong-term harmonious only based on short-term
harmony
ECONOMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN
MEXICO AND CHINA
CHINA.
Conditions, Challenges and Expectations
ENRIQUE DUSSEL PETERS
G d t School
Graduate
S h l off E
Economics,
i UNAM
Coordinator
C t ffor Chi
Center
Chinese-Mexican
M i
Studies
St di
National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)
http://dusselpeters.com
http://www.economia.unam.mx/cechimex
“Taking Stock of the LAC-Asia Relationship”, IDB
Washington, D.C., January 31st, 2012