on forecasting Nobel Prizes and the most cited

Essays of an Information Scientist, Vol:1, p.487-488, 1962-73
Current Contents, #40, p.5-6, October 3, 1973
meantime,
if scientific
journalists,
among
others, want to know where the action was,
is, and will be, they would do WCH to look
into this method. We rcccntly Wd a similar
technique
to
determine
the
relative
“impact” of journais,2 In spite of the snide
remarks of thoset who prefer the world of
Number 40
October 3, 1973
The following
letter appeared
recently. ~ It teqxmds
in Nature
to some critics who
ob@t to my suggestion that citation analysis
can be used to forecast the award of Nobel
subjectivity, the Iattcr study has caused a considerable amount of soul-searching
among
those seeking a rationale for thousands of infrequently cited journals.
Eugene Ck-field
1. Gzrflcld E. Natxre 227:669, 1970.
2. Giutleld E. Sciemce 178:471, 1972.
3. Anonymous. New Scientit 56:464,
Prizes.2
*
e-
Citaciors and Distinction
‘i Sit--I
previously
indicated 1
that
fre-
Citaiion
analyses of the Science
could help forecast NoM
Prize
Inde#
winners. A number of people have pooh-poohed
this
simple
technique.
Ccrnsequency
qtrently, it is of interest to note that all of this
year’s NoM
Prize winners again were among
the list of most frequently cited authors. Two
of them were anticipated
in my article, in
which I gave a list of the ffiy most cited authors for 1967, using the 1967 SCP
as the
data bme. We have, since then, used the
annual SCIJ from the years 1961 through
1!971 (except 1962 and 1963 which were not
available
1972”
then) to compile
a list of most fre-
To reiterate, my Icttcr emphasizes the uscfsdness of a simple,
objective,
algorithmic
method in measurement of xicntillc impact.
That citation analysis k useful in this regard,
I and many others now accept as fact. Nobel
Prizes also reflect scientific
impact--surely
there is no argument about that.
his strange that some people should object
to the observed correlation between the two,
Our computers go about their citation counting much
more swiftly than the Royal
Swedish Academy gcrcs about its subjective
;clcctions; it is unavoidable that the onc will
ar-rticipatc the other. I have never claimed
what critics of the correlation impute to me-that the algorithm will, in advance, duplicate
snd thus predict the Academy’s sclectiorrs.
quently cited authors. Out of more than 1.8
million authors cited, only 42,000 were cited
Since the Icttcr was written, wc have in:Iudcd the ycats 1962 and 1$)63 in our ISI@
at least thirty times in a single
iata base,
year during
and made
some
fin-rhcr counts.
this nine-year period. However,
less than
2,100 were cited more than 1,000 times. In
?ollowing this essay is a list of the ffty au:hors most cited in 1967, x it appeared in the
this list will be found all of the Nobel Prize
winners for 1972 and also winners for the preceding five- year period, with fcw exceptions.
Thus, the Nobel Prize winners were members
of an elite group consisting of the top 0.1 %
of all cited authors.
I‘If any of our rcadcri can propose another
Vatwe article. 2 With the original list arc two
xhers: the fkty authors most cited in 1972,
utd the fkty authors most cited in the pcricd
[96 1-72. More than one-fourth of the Iattcr
algorithmic
fic impact,
procedure for measuring
let him come fommrd.
artkings of authors Iikc Khorana and others
vho are frequently cited as coauthors.
1. Garfield
2.
E. Citation and distinction, Nature 242:185, 1973.
.Citation indexing for studying science. Nature 227:669-71,
scientiIn the
uc Nobel Laureates. Sometime
during the
]cxt year wc hope to bc able to refine these
lata even further
to take into
REFER
487
1970.
account
the
Authors Most
in 1967
Cited
Authors
lhrws
Rank CKad
2921
2
3
4
5
1374
1174
1150
1063
6
7
8
9
18
19
942
940
933
906
904
893
876
863
842
826
822
801
754
750
20
748
21
22
741
737
23
729
24
25
26
27
28
29
727
726
721
717
GoHAmrn M
Cotton FA
Pople JA
Bellamy LJ
Snedecor GW
Boyer PD
Baker BR
Kolthoff IM
Wrzberg G
Fischer F
Seitz F
Djerassi C
Bergmeyer HU
Weber G
Reynolds ES
Mott NF
Ecckrs JC
Feigl F
Freud S
Pearse AGE
Eliel EL
Streifwieser A
712
711
M&titi
RS
Jacob F
30
31
710
706
hraM
32
33
34
35
702
687
674
673
36
37
668
666
38
39
40
41
42
661
655
643
632
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
43
44
45
631
627
626
626
46
619
47
48
49
618
618
614
609
50
Authors
Lowry OH
Chance B
L.arrrfarsLD
Brown HC
Pamrtfrrg
L
Brachet J
Wlnstein S
Albert A
Luff JH
08dUV~ C
won Euksr US
Fieser LF
Huisgen R
Novikoff AB
Goodwin TW
Barton DHR
Fisher RA
Bates DR
Ffory PJ
Stahl E
Dewar MJS
Gilman H
Folch J
Dische Z
Glick D
Rank Cited
1
2
3
4
5
5925
1501
1436
1307
1185
6
7
8
9
10
1210
1163
1162
1099
1039
Cited
mrrw
Name
Lowry OH
PoPle JA
LarrdaraLD
Brown HC
Snedecor GW
PmrMrg L
Herzberg G
Chance B
Cotton FA
●Corey EJ
Dewar MJS
Reynolds ES
“Bray GA
Moff NF
“Olah GA
Folch J
11
981
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
981
942
925
914
896
880
878
873
812
776
775
767
756
746
742
727
711
“Davis BJ
●Fredrickson DS
~!OrY PJ
“Hoffmann R
“Woodwarrt RB
Huisgen R
Eccfes JC
Boris M
Luft JH
Eliel EL
*Siegel S
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
691
679
670
663
652
651
649
637
636
633
631
618
618
*Anden NE
Pearse AGE
●Burton K
●Abragam A
Bellamy LJ
●Nesmeyanov AN
Albert A
Bjorken D
“Ginzburg VL
Fieaer LF
*Miller JFA
“Carlsson A
Streitwieser A
50
Most
1961-1972
limes
Ham
1
10
Most Cited
in 1972
MMWn W
614
614
613
602
598
592
584
582
*Clementi E
Kolthoff IM
“Slater JC
Freud S
“Spackman DH
‘Cfratt J
*Tanford C
*Hirschfeider JD
580 Weber G
Rank C&at
Ntmra
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
35198
13411
12728
11870
11220
10503
10279
9865
8923
8688
11
12
8094
8025
MWmr RS
7470
7457
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Lowry OH
Chance B
Brown HC
Parting L
Landau LD
Pople JA
Snedecor GW
fismztrerg G
Bellamy LJ
Cotton FA
GefH&wsn M
7947
Eccfa5 JC
7800
Kolthoff IM
7506
FIory PJ
7501
Pearse AGE
7493 *Selye H
20
7266
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
6919
6886
6874
6839
6762
6671
6617
6612
Ojerassi C
Motf NF
Fieser LF
Reynolds ES
Albert A
Folch J
Born M
Huisgen R
Eliel EL
Weber G
Corey EJ
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
6607
6587
6558
6528
6499
6420
6412
6381
6306
6245
6232
6210
Dewar MJS
Luff JH
Freud S
●Fiske CH
Winstein S
Gilman H
Dische Z
“Moore S
Fisher RA
“Wswburg O
‘Kuhn R
“Novikoff AB
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
6196 “Kabat EA
6175
hcob F
6165
Siegel S
6149
Boyer PD
6087
%artwr DHR
6073 “Chandrasekhar S
5943 *Kre5s HA
5936 “Brodie BB
5896 “Gomori G
5883
Streitwiesser A
50
Asterisked names in the 1972 list are names that do not armear on the 1967 list. Asterisked names in
the 1961-1972 list are names that do not appear on either of the other lists. The names of Nobel
Laureates appear in bold type.
488