Chile and the Coalition for Clean Air and Climate - meta

Chile and the
Coalition for Clean
Air and Climate
Marcelo Mena, PhD
Vice-Minister of the Environment
Chile.
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Inequality also occurs in the environment.
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An intergenerational
challenge
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100
90
80
Chileans believe climate
change is here and must be
86 86
addressed.
78
Climate Change
Affects My Daily Life
70
60
50
Climate Change due
to human action
40
30
19
20
12 12
10
2 2 3
0
yes
no
don't know
Ministtry of Environment’s First National Survey on Environmental Awareness. 5046 surveys, 1.4% error.
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Climate Change in Chile
Climate change
Chile is economically, socially, and
environmentally vulnerable to climate
change. We project negative impacts on
agriculture, mining, drinking water, hydro
power, health in North and Central Chile.
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PROJECTED IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES
Isotherm shifts affect snow pack,
and water resources for melt
season.
•
Glacier retreat
80
Caudal [m3/s]
•
Río Aconcagua
70
2011-2040
60
2041-2070
50
2071-2098
LB
40
30
20
10
0
ABR
JUN
AGO
OCT
DIC
Tiempo (mes)
Increased dry season, lower flows.
Extreme events
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FEB
Air pollution/climate interactions
(Mena-Carrasco et al, Urban Climate,2014)
Modeled October 15-November 15, 2008
surface skin temperature for full WRF-Chem
model
Modeled anthropogenic
aerosol effects on surface
temperature
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Chile is acting on CO2 and
SLCP
• Carbon Tax on transportation and energy sector.
• Glacier protection law.
• Ratification of 2009 Copenhagen commitment (20/20) in
2014. Looking for more ambition in Post 2030 scenario.
• Montreal Protocol implementation makes HCFC control
easier
• Methane capture practices good for power generation,
fuel for Santiago’s CNG taxi fleet.
• Pollutution attainment programs will integrate air quality
and climate policy.
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Tax on power generation (11% CO2
reduction)
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Pollution tax
on large
industrial
turbines and
boilers
(50MW)
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Impuesto a
automóviles diesel
• Tax on new car sales will make them cleaner
both on local and global air pollution.
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Clean Energy in Chile
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2014: Doubled renewable
energy to date.
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Santiago’s progress in air pollution
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17
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Presidential Measure 31. Act on pollution
14 pollution attainment programs
in 4 year period.
Collaboration with Ministry of
Health
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Heating is the main energy bill that
Chileans pay
+58% of energy use at
homes in Central Chile is
heating
Electricidad
5%
Horno
Cocina Agua Caliente
2%
4%
Sanitaria
8%
Horno
1%
Electricidad
16%
Calefactores
58%
81% of energy use at homes
in Southern Chile is heating
Cocina
7%
Agua Caliente
Sanitaria
18%
Calefactores
81%
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Heating and pollution are
highly correlated
120
Concentración mensualPM2.5 (ug/m3)
100
80
Curicó
Talca
Chillán
60
Temuco
Rancagua
40
Valdivia
Osorno
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Mes
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9
10
11
12
Heating demand will rise in future
Projection of residential energy use 2012-2050
140.000.000
120.000.000
Total
calefacción
(todos los
combustibles)
80.000.000
Total ACS y
cocción todos
los
combustibles
60.000.000
40.000.000
Total
Artefactos
eléctricos (sin
considerar ACS,
cocina ni
calefacción)
20.000.000
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2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
0
2012
MWh/año
100.000.000
Particulate pollution is a social problem
that manifests itself in the environment
Wood much cheaper than
clean fuels
5 year spending on energy
(heater+fuel)
18,00
12.000.000
Valor Presente (14% tasa de descuento)
We must reduce price by structural
measures
16,66
16,00
10.000.000
14,00
8.000.000
12,00
6.000.000
10,00
7,69
8,00
4.000.000
5,75
6,00
4,96
2.000.000
4,00
0
Gas
Natura
l
Gas
Licuad
o
Leña
Húme
da
1,88
Kerose
ne
2,00
Combustible 2.859.4 3.479.4 10.115. 485.878 1.046.3 2.255.6 2.831.4
0,00
Estufa
Eléctri
co
Leña
Seca
Pellet
800.000 180.000 480.000 150.000 150.000 900.000 700.000
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1,00
5,55
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Benefits of pollution attainment program
Effect
Type
Avoided cases /year
Premature mortality
Long term
177
Hospital admissions
Asthma
10
Cardiovascular
70
Chronic respiratory disease 12
Pneumonia
30
Emergency room visits
Asthma
6821
Lost work days
Complete loss
43,107
Partial loss
191.384
Minor restrictions
370.030
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CO2 emissions vs mode of
transportation
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PM emissions
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Pollution attainment and jobs
•
•
•
•
24.000 annual insulation
retrofits (10 years)
48.000 annual overhauls
1 dollar spent on pollution
abatement causes 1 dollar
savings in efficiency for user, 4
in health costs.
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Conclusiones
• Hoy tenemos más medidas
que nunca disponibles para
proteger salud de
contaminación (alerta sanitaria
que ha disminuido
contaminación inmediata).
• Tenemos 14 planes a
desarrollar para abordar 87%
del riesgo ambiental por aire.
• Tenemos medidas que
permitirán contaminar menos,
a igual o menor costo que
actual.
• Descontaminación rentable en
lo económico como en lo
social.
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Gracias
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Principle 10. Rio +20: Promote environmental justice
through participation and access to information.
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Workshop on Environment, Climate
Change, and Immigration for South
America.
• Held in Santiago October
28-30.
• 45 participants from all
countries representing
ministries of foreign
affairs, environment, and
health.
• South America: 83%
urban population.
• Socially, economically
and environmentally
vulnerable population.
• Emerging natural MINISTERIO
disaster
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Recommendations.
• Promote better understanding of complex
interactions between immigration and
climate change
– Research on climate change/immigration link.
– Raise awareness and build common
terminology.
– Identify social and economic drivers to
immigration.
– Identify vulnerable population: elderly,
women, children. Immobile population.
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entrapped population.
Recommendations
• Strengthen public policy in
terms of immigration and
climate change
– Sustainable development
goals, inequality,
eradication of poverty.
– Planning, adaptation,
natural disaster
management, humanitarian
relief
– Framework to protect
climate immigrant rights.
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Recommendations
• Urban areas are
vulnerable to climate
change, land and water
scarcity .
• Inequality, poverty, and
vulnerable zones make
adaptation difficult.
• Raise challenge to
regional climate dialogue
such as UNASUR,
CELAC, Mercosur.
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Conclusions
• Developing countries can find
opportunities to mitigate
climate change with local
benefits both on climate and
air quality..
• Chile’s air quality management
strategies will focus on soot
(black carbon) from diesel and
wood burning.
• Pollution taxes designed to
integrate local and global
pollutants.
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Gracias
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