1Q15 Consolidated Earnings Results

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1Q15 Consolidated Earnings Results
Colombian Banking GAAP and IFRS
June 2015
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Disclaimer
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (“Grupo Aval”) is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States, registered with Colombia’s National Registry of
Shares and Issuers (Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. As such, it is subject to the control of the
Superintendency of Finance and compliance with applicable U.S. securities regulation as a “foreign private issuer” under Rule 405 of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933.
Grupo Aval is a not a financial institution and is not supervised or regulated as a financial institution in Colombia.
As an issuer of securities in Colombia, Grupo Aval is required to comply with periodic reporting requirements and corporate governance, however, it is not regulated
as a financial institution or as a holding company of banking subsidiaries and, thus, is not required to comply with capital adequacy regulations applicable to banks
and other financial institutions.
All of our banking subsidiaries, Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular, Banco AV Villas, and their respective Colombian financial subsidiaries,
including Porvenir and Corficolombiana, are subject to inspection and surveillance as financial institutions by the Superintendency of Finance.
Although we are not a financial institution, until December 31, 2014 we prepared the unaudited consolidated financial information included in our quarterly reports in
accordance with the regulations of the Superintendency of Finance for financial institutions and generally accepted accounting principles for banks to operate in
Colombia, also known as Colombian Banking GAAP because we believe that presentation on that basis most appropriately reflected our activities as a holding
company of a group of banks and other financial institutions.
However, in 2009 the Colombian Congress enacted Law 1314 establishing the implementation of IFRS in Colombia. As a result, since January 1, 2015 financial
entities and Colombian issuers of publicly traded securities such as Grupo Aval must prepare financial statements in accordance with IFRS.
Colombian Banking GAAP and IFRS as applicable under Colombian regulations differ in certain significant respects from U.S. GAAP. IFRS as applicable under
Colombian regulations also differs in certain aspects from IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Our 20-F annual report filed with the SEC provides a description of
the principal differences between Colombian Banking GAAP and U.S. GAAP as well as expected changes from our implementation of IFRS as applicable under
Colombian regulations.
The unaudited consolidated financial information included in this webcast for the first quarter of 2015 is presented under Colombian Banking GAAP and, for
comparative purposes, it is also presented in accordance with IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Unaudited consolidated financial information for the first and
fourth quarter of 2014 is presented under Colombian Banking GAAP.
Details of the calculations of non-GAAP measures such as ROAA and ROAE, among others, are explained when required in this report.
As a result of our migration to IFRS and our first year of implementation of IFRS accounting principles, our interim unaudited consolidated financial information for
2015, and the comparative interim information for the respective periods of 2014, may be subject to further amendments.
This report may include forward-looking statements, which actual results may vary from those stated herein as a consequence of changes in general, economic and
business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates and other risks factors as evidenced in our Form 20-F available at the SEC webpage. Recipients of this
document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Grupo Aval will not have any obligation to update the information herein and
shall not be responsible for any decision taken by investors in connection with this document. The content of this document is not intended to provide full disclosure
on Grupo Aval or its affiliates.
When applicable, in this webcast we refer to billions as thousands of millions.
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Highlights
Grupo Aval financials for 1Q15 show the following general results:
Strong loan portfolio growth (18.6% YoY and 5.1% QoQ) based on organic growth of
our operations boosted by the depreciation of the Colombian Peso;
Stable asset quality when compared to 4Q14 with NPLs at 1.8% in 1Q15 vs 1.9% in
4Q14 and 30 days PDLs at 2.6% in 4Q14 and 1Q15;
Stable Net Interest Margin at 5.8% in 1Q15 in line with the LTM average;
Normalization of the cost of risk improving to 1.5%;
Improvement in the efficiency ratio on a cost to income basis (47.9% in 1Q15 from
52.9% in 4Q14 and 50.5% in 1Q14), and on an operational expenses to average total
assets basis (3.4% for 1Q15 from 3.8% for 4Q14 and 3.7% for 1Q14);
Impacted by the payment of dividends and wealth tax and due to the strong growth in
total assets, our tangible equity ratio decreased by 100 pbs. from 9.8% in 4Q14 to 8.8%
in 1Q15;
ROAA for the quarter was 1.7% and ROAE for the quarter was 13.2%.
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Highlights
Other corporate matters to report
Preliminary figures for 1Q2015 Balance Sheet and Income Statement under IFRS are
included herein. The majority of the changes in the Balance Sheet reflect the elimination
of the reappraisal of assets and the effects of consolidating Promigas. The positive
recurrent impacts on the income statement reflect less loan provision expenses and
operating expenses;
Under full IFRS 1Q2015 results will include the wealth tax as an expense item in the
income statement. Under Colombian regulation, it is possible to deduct this tax directly
from Equity rather than expensing it in the income statement;
The Colombian Peso showed yet again a strong depreciation during the period (31.9%
vs. EoP March 31, 2014 and 8.6% vs. EoP December 31, 2014) which positively
impacted the growth of our Central American operations when translated into
Colombian Pesos but affected our capitalization ratios. In the following report,
calculations of growth excluding the depreciation of the Colombian Peso use the
exchange rate formed as of March 31, 2014 to translate our Central American
operations for all periods.
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Macroeconomic
contextl-estilo
Colombia
GDP Growth (%)
4.20
80
3.70
60
3.20
40
2011
2012
2013P
Colombian GDP
2014Pr
2015E
3.30
World GDP
Foreign Investment
Unemployment (%)
10.9
10.0
11.1
9.2
9.5
9.8
8.5
Source: DANE.
2011
June
9.2
9.6
8.4
7.5
2010
($US Million)
10.5
Abr-15: 9.5%
vs.
Abr-14: 9.0%
11.6
11.5
WTI
Source: Bloomberg Consensus
Source: DANE and Bloomberg. GDP yearly % change – Seasonally adjusted data
at constant prices.
(P) = Provisional (Pr) = Preliminary
12.5
2016E
3.45
Apr-15
3.5
100
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
2.8
4.70
Jan-15
4.3 4.2
4.6
Oct-14
4.0
2.5 2.9
4.9
4.7
Jul-14
5.0
120
Apr-14
6.4
6.16.1
5.20
Jan-14
7.9
6.3
6.3 6.6 5.9
5.8
GDP Growth Expectations
2012
2013
December
4,692
15,033
16,684
16,833
15,032
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
2,629
2,349
9,485
12,436
3,231
8.7
Dec-10
2014
Foreign Direct Investment
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Portfolio investments
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Macroeconomic
contextl-estilo
Colombia
Inflation (%)
Inflation Expectations for YE15 and YE16
4.0
5.5
3.9
4.6
4.5
3.7
3.2
3.5 3.2
3.5
3.7
3.2
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.0
3.10
3.0
1.9
2.5
2015E
Upper target range
Source: DANE
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Lower target range
Jul-14
Apr-14
Apr-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
2.0
Jan-14
12-month inflation
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
1.5
2016E
Source: Bloomberg Consensus
Central Bank’s Monetary Policy
Real GDP growth
Inflation
DTF (1)
Colombian Central Bank's Interest Rate
Colombian Central Bank's Interest Rate
5%
6.6%
6.0%
4.8%
4.0%
3.7%
4%
2.0%
0.0%
2011
4%
2012
2013
4.6%
4.5%
5%
4.6%
4.5%
3.7%
4.1%
3.3%
3%
Dec-13
2014
Source: Banrep and DANE
Apr-14
Aug-14
Source: Banrep. (1) End of period DTF rate.
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Dec-14
Apr-15
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Macroeconomic
contextl-estilo
Colombia
Colombian Peso vs WTI US$/barrel
150
COP Exchange Rate
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg. (100=Jun-30, 2014)
Colombian Peso Exchange Rate
Average
End of Period
1Q14
2,006.93
1,969.45
4Q14
2,173.01
2,392.46
1Q15
2,470.16
2,598.36
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1Q15vs4Q14 1Q15vs1Q14
13.7%
23.1%
8.6%
31.9%
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
90
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
40
100
Jan-15
50
110
Dec-14
60
120
Nov-14
70
Brazilian Real
Chilean Peso
Turkish Lira
Oct-14
80
130
Sep-14
90
Aug-14
100
Colombian Peso
Mexican Peso
Peruvian Nuevo Sol
South African Rand
140
Jun-14
110
Jul-14
WTI (US$ - Lhs)
COP vs Emerging markets’ currencies
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Macroeconomic
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Central
America
Real GDP CAGR ’14-’17E (%)
Real GDP growth evolution (%)
(1)
US
Central America
8%
6.4%
4.3%
Central
America
(1)
Panama
4.3%
4.2%
6%
3.9%
3.4%
2.6%
6.2%
4.0%
4%
Nicaragua Costa Rica Guatemala Honduras El Salvador
2%
2.7%
2.4%
0%
-2%
-4%
2006
Source: IMF;
(1)
Aggregate growth of all the Central American countries
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
21.2%
20.5%
16.6%
17.9%
14.5%
12.3%
Central
America
2013
Source: IMF; (1) Average growth of all the Central American countries
Oil & gas imports / Total imports (%)
17.0%
2012
Panama(1) Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Source: SECMCA, Central Banks; (1) Corresponds to 2013 since numbers for 2014 are not available.
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2014
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Assets
Figures in Ps. Trillions
Growth excl. depreciation of COP
Total Assets
1Q15 / 4Q14: 6.7%
1Q15 / 1Q14 = 10.6%
1Q15 / 1Q14: 18.5%
189.5
1Q15 / 4Q14 = 4.4%
177.6
159.9
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
Assets Breakdown
1Q14
4Q14
% of total
assets
% of total
assets
22.4%
Foreign (1)
21.2%
18.3%
(1) Foreign
26.0%
Foreign (1)
22.3%
60.5%
77.6%
Colombian
operations
16.1%
61.6%
Loans and financial leases
operations reflect Central American operations.
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74.0%
Colombian
operations
Investments
Other
1Q15
26.5%
Foreign (1)
22.8%
16.5%
% of total
assets
60.7%
73.5%
Colombian
operations
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Loans
Figures in Ps. Trillions
Growth excl. depreciation of COP
Gross loans
1Q15 / 4Q14: 5.1%
1Q15 / 1Q14 = 11.2%
1Q15 / 1Q14: 18.6%
1Q15 / 4Q14 = 2.9%
99.9
112.8
118.5
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
Gross loans Breakdown
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
99.9
112.8
118.5
Financial leases
0.3%
7.0%
7.1%
0.3%
8.0%
6.6%
0.3%
8.3%
6.2%
Consumer
28.3%
29.4%
29.3%
Commercial
57.3%
55.7%
55.9%
Microcredit
Mortgages
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1Q15 / 1Q14
1.4%
41.9%
4.6%
22.5%
15.6%
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Loan
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30 days PDLs / Total loans (1)
(1)
NPLs / Total loans
Loan provision expense, net / Average Loans
Loan provision expense, net (net of recoveries of
charged-off assets) / Average Loans
1.8%
2.7%
1.9%
1Q14
2.6%
1.9%
1.8%
4Q14
1Q15
Charge offs / Average NPLs
0.5x
1Q14
2.6%
0.7x
4Q14
1.5%
1.3%
1.6%
1.4%
1.1%
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
Allowances
(1)
/ NPLs
(1)
Allowances /
30+ PDLs
1.68x
1.63x
1.69x
1.17x
1.17x
1.15x
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
3.2%
3.0%
3.0%
0.7x
1Q15
Allowances /
Total loans
(1) NPL defined as microcredit loans more than 30 days past due, consumer, mortgage and financial leases more than 60 days past due and
commercial loans more than 90 days past due.
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Loan
quality – GRUPO
AVAL
Past Due Loans (1)
Portfolio Composition
Non-performing Loans (2)
1Q15
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
Commercial
55.9%
1.6%
1.7%
1.6%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
Consumer
29.3%
4.4%
4.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
Financial Leases
6.2%
3.2%
3.2%
4.0%
1.5%
2.1%
2.1%
Mortgages
8.3%
4.0%
2.9%
2.7%
3.6%
2.6%
1.8%
Microcredit
0.3%
10.3%
10.7%
10.7%
10.3%
10.6%
10.7%
Total Loans
100.0%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
Asset Quality Evolution
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
Initial PDLs
1,828.3
2,141.0
2,069.2
2,173.0
2,305.0
2,717.6
2,616.0
2,794.1
2,914.9
New PDLs
510.5
160.9
351.3
384.1
646.4
257.6
517.3
493.6
515.8
Charge-offs
-197.8
-232.7
-247.5
-252.1
-233.7
-359.1
-339.3
-372.7
-375.8
Final PDLs
2,141.0
2,069.2
2,173.0
2,305.0
2,717.6
2,616.0
2,794.1
2,914.9
3,054.9
Ps. billions
(1)
Past Due Loans + 30 days / Total Loans.
defined as microcredit loans more than 30 days past due, consumer, mortgage and financial leases more than 60 days past due and commercial
loans more than 90 days past due.
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(2) NPL
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Funding
Figures in Ps. Trillions
Total Funding
Total Deposits
1Q15/4Q14:
7.7%
1Q15/1Q14: 17.7%
Growth excl. depreciation of COP
Growth excl. depreciation of COP
1Q15 / 1Q14 = 10.0%
134.0
146.4
157.7
Funding
Composition
Interbank Borrowings
1Q14
4.8%
4Q14
3.3%
1Q15
4.8%
Long-Term Bonds
8.0%
8.6%
Banks and Others
9.3%
Deposits
77.9%
1Q15 / 4Q14 = 5.4%
1Q15 / 1Q14 = 9.8%
1Q15/4Q14:
6.8%
1Q15 / 1Q14: 17.1%
104.3
114.4
122.1
Deposit
Composition
Others
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
0.8%
1.3%
0.9%
8.4%
Time deposits
33.7%
36.6%
37.6%
9.9%
9.3%
Checking accounts
23.8%
25.2%
22.9%
78.1%
77.5%
Savings deposits
41.7%
37.0%
38.5%
1Q15 / 4Q14 = 4.6%
Deposits / Net Loans (%)
1.08x
1.05x
1.06x
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
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Capital
Figures in Ps. Trillions
Attributable Equity + Minority Interest
Attributable Shareholders Equity
1Q15/4Q14:
-2.5%
1Q15/4Q14:
-1.9%
1Q15 / 1Q14: 18.3%
1Q15 / 1Q14: 22.1%
(1)
12.1
1Q14
4Q14
6.6
7.4
7.3
Attributable Shareholders' Equity
12.1
15.1
14.7
Total Equity
18.6
22.5
22.0
15.1
14.7
1Q15
1Q14
4Q14
Equity + minority
interest / Assets
11.7%
12.6%
11.6%
Tangible capital
ratio (2)
8.8%
9.8%
8.8%
1Q15
Minority interest
(1)
Consolidated Capital Adequacy of our Banks (%)*
(1)
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
1Q14
Primary capital (Tier 1)
7.4
8.0
7.8
9.3
8.9
10.0
9.8
Solvency Ratio
11.0
11.5 10.8
12.8 11.8 12.1
4Q14
1Q15
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
10.5 11.0
10.7 11.6 10.5
11.5 12.2 12.2
11.8 12.6 11.3
(2)raised between Sep, 2014 and Oct, 2014 through a preferred share offering in the NY Stock Exchange. Tangible Capital Ratio
Includes Ps. Capital
2.5 trillion Ratio
of capital
Tangible
9.4 10.0 8.9
13.0 12.3 11.7 14.4 15.8 14.6 12.0 11.7 11.5
(2)
is calculated as Shareholders Equity plus Minority Interest minus Goodwill divided by Total Assets minus Goodwill. As of 1Q15, our bank’s tangible capital ratios
are as follows: 8.9% in Banco de Bogotá, 11.7% in Banco de Occidente, 14.6% in Banco Popular and 11.5% in Banco AV Villas. * Solvency ratios and Tier 1 figures
for 2014 are presented under Colombian Banking GAAP and for 1Q15 under IFRS.
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NIM
Netpara
Interest
Margin
Net interest income (trillions)
7.8%
6.8%
7.8%
7.1%
4.6%
3.9%
Avg. cost of funds /
Total Int. and non
Int. funding
7.7%
6.0%
7.4%
5.9%
7.3%
7.1%
6.9%
6.0%
5.9%
5.8%
2.0%
2.2%
1.6%
1.1%
1.0%
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
1.86
1.95
2.12
6.8%
5.8%
1Q15/ 1Q15/
1Q14 4Q14
13.6% 8.4%
6.9%
6.8%
5.7%
5.8%
2.7%
1.9%
1.3%
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
4.0%
3.7%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
3.1%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
Loans Interest Margin (1)
Net Investments Margin (2)
Net Interest Margin (3)
(1) Loans Interest Margin: Net Interest Income on Loans to Average loans and financial leases.
(2) Net Investment Margin: Net Interest income on Fixed Income securities and on Interbank and Overnight funds to Average Fixed Income securities
and Interbank and overnight funds.
(3) Net Interest Margin: Net interest income divided by total average interest-earning assets.
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Fees
operatingl estilo
income
Figures in Ps. Billions
1Q15 / 1Q14: 16.9%
Fees(1)
1Q15/4Q14: 2.8%
889.4
10.7%
20.0%
12.7%
13.1%
6.1%
5.3%
51.1%
51.3%
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
Credit Card fees
Fiduciary activities
5.5%
12.1%
50.6%
Commissions from banking services
(1)
1,039.6
11.9%
19.2%
1,011.2
11.6%
19.0%
Pension funds management
Other
Total gross fees and other service income.
Other operating income
Other operating income
1Q15 / 1Q14: 1.2%
1Q14
Dividend Income
128
Foreign exchange (losses) gains, net
(10)
Income from non-financial sector, net
78
Other
60
Total other operating income
256
1Q15 / 4Q14:
-15.7%
256
128
128
307
246
175
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
61
259
83
Dividend Income
16
4Q14
61
80
109
57
307
1Q15
83
73
62
40
259
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Efficiency
and non
operating
income,
net
Operating expenses /
Operating Income
50.5%
1Q14
52.9%
4Q14
Operating expenses /
Average Assets
47.9%
1Q15
Efficiency Ratio is calculated as Operating Expenses before D&A
divided by Operating Income before net provisions.
3.7%
3.8%
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
Efficiency Ratio is calculated as annualized Operating Expenses
before D&A divided by average of total assets.
Non operating income, net
92
88
4Q14
1Q15
21
1Q14
3.4%
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Profitability
Figures in Ps. Billions
Net income
350
414
503
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
EPS
$17.2
$18.6
$22.6
Shares Outstanding
(MM Average)
20,374
22,278
22,281
ROAA(1)
1.5%
1Q14
ROAA 12 months
1.3%
4Q14
1.6%
1.7%
1Q15
1.6%
ROAE(2)
13.2%
ROAE 12 months
11.7%
11.5%
1Q14
4Q14
14.4%
1Q15
13.4%
(1) ROAA for each quarter is calculated as annualized Net Income before Minority Interest divided by average of total assets. (2) ROAE for each quarter
is calculated as annualized Net Income attributable for Aval's shareholders divided by average attributable shareholders' equity.
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Banking
vs IFRS – Balance
Sheet
Figures in Ps. Billions
Change
Banking GAAP
1Q15
21,510.8
31,268.5
114,982.7
5,887.3
12,040.6
3,854.0
IFRS(1)
1Q15
21,991.2
30,705.3
116,822.5
6,107.8
17,628.6
-
Total Assets
189,543.8
193,255.4
3,711.5
2.0%
Total Deposits
Other Funding
Derivatives
Other liabilities
122,138.4
35,544.7
1,633.2
8,186.9
122,590.5
38,144.1
1,650.2
9,315.2
452.1
2,599.3
17.0
1,128.3
0.4%
7.3%
1.0%
13.8%
Total Liabilites excl. Minority Interest
167,503.3
171,700.0
4,196.7
2.5%
Minority Interest
Shareholders' Equity
Total Liabilities, shareholders' equity and minority interest
7,315.5
14,725.0
189,543.8
7,422.0
14,133.4
193,255.4
106.5
(591.6)
3,711.5
1.5%
-4.0%
2.0%
Balance Sheet
Cash and cash equivalents
Investment Securities, net
Loans and financial leases, net
Goodwill, net
Other assets, net
Reappraisal of assets
(1)
Preliminary information
19
$
480.4
(563.1)
1,839.8
220.5
5,588.0
(3,854.0)
%
2.2%
-1.8%
1.6%
3.7%
46.4%
-100.0%
Haga clicGAAP
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título del patrón
Banking
vs IFRS – Income
Statement
Figures in Ps. Billions
Income Statement
Total Interest Income
Interest expense
Banking GAAP
1Q15
3,352.3
(1,234.8)
IFRS(1)
1Q15
3,332.4
(1,291.1)
Change
$
%
(19.9)
(56.3)
-0.6%
4.6%
Net Interest Income
2,117.6
2,041.3
(76.2)
-3.6%
Total provisions, net
Fees and other services income, net
Other operating income
Operating expenses
Non-operating income/(expense), net
Income before income tax expense and non- controlling
interest
Income tax expense
Net Income before Minority interest
Income attributable to Minority Interest
Net Income attributable to Grupo Aval shareholders
before wealth tax
(434.3)
881.6
258.5
(1,709.1)
88.1
(398.7)
885.3
235.0
(1,626.2)
187.6
35.6
3.7
(23.5)
82.9
99.5
-8.2%
0.4%
-9.1%
-4.8%
113.0%
1,202.3
(448.1)
754.2
(251.0)
1,324.3
(492.5)
831.8
(278.2)
122.0
(44.3)
77.6
(27.2)
10.1%
9.9%
10.3%
10.8%
503.2
553.7
50.5
10.0%
-
(208.7)
(208.7)
0.0%
503.2
344.9
(158.2)
-31.4%
Wealth tax attributable to Grupo Aval shareholders(2)
Net Income attributable to Grupo Aval shareholders after
wealth tax
(1)
(2)
Preliminary information
Wealth tax paid by Grupo Aval and its subsidiaries totaled Ps. 303.2 billion
20
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Erratum
On slide 16 we changed the title from Net Fees to Fees. The numbers on the slide
remained unaltered.
21
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