ekonomika n.bakaSvili (ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis

ekonomika
n.bakaSvili
(ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universiteti)
uZravi qonebis realuri Rirebulebis gansazRvra
sawarmos qoneba-es aris misi aqtivebis erToblioba. masSi udidesi xvediTi
wili ukavia ZiriTad fondebs (ZiriTad kapitals), am ukanasknelSi ki Senobanagebobebs. etyoba, amiT aris ganpirobebuli is mdgomareoba, rom rasawrmos
privatizebis dros misi qonebis Sefaseba xdeba ZiriTadad xdeba misive
kuTvnili ZiriTAdi fondebis, kerZod ki Senoba-nagebobis fasiT.
Senoba-nagebobebi miekuTvneba uZrav qonebas. maTSi Sedis kapitaluri Senoba
nagebobebi, ganurCevlad maTi tipisa, saxisa, sididisa da daniSnulebis: agreTve
satitulo droebiTi Senoba nagebobebi, e.i iseTni, romelTa moxmarebis vada or
welze metia.
Senoba-nagebobebis realuri Rirebulebis gansazRvris saWiroeba warmoiSoba
maTi gayidvis dros. am problemebiT Cveni daintereseba gamoiwvia swored am
saWiroebis dRevandelma maStabma, kerZod saqarTveloSi mimdinare saxelmwifo
qonebis srulmaStabianma provatizaciam:saxelmwifo qonebam, uwinares yovlisa
is Senoba nagebobebia, romelSic saxelwifo sawarmoebia ganTAvsebuli. amitom,
ganurCevlad imisa, Tu ras yidis saxelmwifo-metalurgiul qarxanas,
polokninikas, univermaRs Tu sxvas, qonebis sainventarizacio nusxaSi pirvel
poziciad swored Senoba nagebobebi fiqsirdeba. amis garda rogorc ukve
avRniSneT maTze modis sawarmos qonebis udidesi nawili. saqarTveloSi
mimdinare provatizaciis procesi, rogorc presaSi weren, damTavrebamdea
misuli, magram es jer kidev ar niSnavs damTavrebas da meorec privatizacia
permanentuli procesia da igi SemdgomSic gagrZeldeba. kerZod, daiwyeba
qonebis meoreuli gayidva: es procesi gagrZeldeba manam sanam qoneba ar ipovis
gergilian mesaxuTres, xolo potenciuri mesakuTre- efeqtur qonebas. es bazris
kanonia. ase rom Senoba-nagebobebis realuri Rirebulebis gansazRvraze Cveni
Sexedulebebis publikacia aramcdaramc dagvianebulad ar migvaCnia.
winamdebare statiaSi, Senoba-nagebobebis Rirebulebis gansazRvris sakiTxs
vixilavT ara ganyenebulad, aramed am Senoba-nagebobebis gamoyenebis
konteqstSi. e.i am saqmis Rirebulebis gaTvaliswinebiT, imis mixedviT, ra saqmec
am Senoba nagebobebSi warimarTeba. maSasadame, saqme exeba ara ”SiSveli” Senobanagebobebis fass, aramed sawarmoo fass, ufro sworad mis mier
ganxorcielebul biznesis fass.
biznesi aris mogebaze orientirebulia saqme. es imas niSnavs rom swored
warmarTuli biznesi momgebiania, Semosavliania. amitom Tu sawarmo iyideba mis
saqmianobasTan, mis biznesTan erTad, maSin yvelaze upriania, misis qoneba
Sefasdes ara misi aqtivebis (Senoba-nagebobebis) narCeni RirebulebiT, aramed
sawarmoSi mimdinare biznesis momavali Semosavlebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
saprivatizebo sawarmoTa qonebis Rirebulebis gansazRvris sakiTxs sxva
postsabWour qveynebSi ufro meti pasuxismgeblobiT moeqcnen vidre CvenTan.
CvenTAn es qoneba viTomda gaiyida sabazro fasebiT, magram sinamdvileSi
arasrulyofili sabazro meqanizmebis gamo igi gaiyida indeqsirebuli narCeni
(cveTa gamoklebuli) RirebulebiT. amas is faqti gvafiqrebinebs, rom umravlesi
obieqtis saprivatizebo sabazro fasi daemTxva misi qonebis narCen Rirebulebas,
rac Cveni azriT, dauSvebeli iyo.
sxva postsocialistur qveynebSi (garad ruseTisa) saprivatizebo sawarmoTa
qoneba Sefasdeba: ”Semosavlebis kapitalizaciis meTodebiT. am sami meTodidan
CvenTvis yvelaze sayuradReboa Semosavlebis kapitalizaciis meTodi.
am meTodis arsi aseTia: roca sawarmo iyideba mTlianad maSin mis gasayid fasSi
unda Sevides is Semosavlebi romelsac sawarmos mflobeli miiRebs misi
gamoyenebiT momavalSi. e.i unda moxdes momavaliSemosavlebis kapitalizacia.
momavali Semosavlebis kapitalizacia-es aris maTi midinare Rirebulebis
gansazRvra. momavali Semosavlebis kapitalizacia xdeba egreT wodebul
formuliT: DCF-is (Discounted CaSh flow) gamoyenebiT [3,42]:
PV=CF1/(1+V)+ CF2/(1+V)2+ CF3/(1+V)3+…+ CFn/(1+V)n
formula gviCvenebs Semosavlebis priodulobas n wlis ganmavlobaSi.
formulaSi CF1 , CF2, CF3,....CFn aris naRdi fulis momavali Semosavlebis nakadi
Sesabamis wlebSi, V aris diskontirebuli norma (diskontis normad, rogorc
wesi, aiReba bankis procenti riskis procentis damatebiT), PV aris momavali
SemosavlebiT mimdinare Rirebuleba.
sawarmos qonebis Sefasebis am meTodSi yvelaze sapasuxismgeblo aris moamvali
Semosavlebis nakadebis prognozireba. rogorc Cans, swored am sirTulis gamo
ver iqna igi gamoyenebuli saqarTvelos saxelmwifo qonebis privatizaciis
dros. Cveni azriT es prognozi SeiZleba dayrdnoboda wina (ukriziso) periodSi
(1980-1985 wlebis) sawarmoo Semosavlianobis maCveneblebs. es varianti ajobebda
mis srul ugulebelyofas.
unda aRiniSnos isic rom saqarTvelos ekonomikis saministrom 1998 wlis 2
Tebervalis #8 brZanebiT gamosca debuleba-”uZravi qonebis gadacemisas
sabazro fasis gansazRvris wesi”, romelic aregulirebs yvela saxis uZravi
qonebis gasxvisebis, qiravnobisa da giravnobisas sabazro fasis gansazRvras.
yvela saxis uZravi qonebis sabazro fasis gaangariSebis safuZvels warmoadgens
yvela saxis uZravi qonebis farTi, mdebareoba, Senoba nagebobebis
maxasiaTeblebi, (mdgomareoba) dakavebuli miwis nakveTis farTi. aqedan
gamomdinare sabazro fasi gaiangariSeba formuliT:
f(s)=f(0)XtXzX(kXs+m), sadac
f(s) aris uZravi qonebis sabazro fasi;
f(0) aris qalaqSi (raionSi) uZravi qonebis 1 kv.m-is sabazro fasi da igi
gaiangariSeba da mtkicdeba adgilobrivi mmarTvelobis organoebis mier
periferiul zonaSi mdebare uZravi qonebis dasabegri Tanxidan gamomdinare im
pirobebSi rodesac k=1-s da m=0-s;
t aris uZravi qonebis saerTo farTi;
z aris uZravi qonebis mdebareobis maxasiaTebeli
s aris sarTulis Semasworebeli koeficienti
m aris uZravi qonebis sabazro fasis gansazRvrisas dakavebuli miwis nakveTis
monawileobis koeficienti.
uZravi qonebis zonaluri koeficientis(z) gaangariSgeba xdeba TiToeuli
qalaqisaTvis (raionisaTvis) calcalke dasaxlebaTa socialur ekonomikur da
bunebrivi maxasiaTeblebis mixedviT rogoricaa: mosaxleobis raodenoba,
administraciuli statusi, sameurneo da funqciuri profili, satransporto
infrastruqturiT uzrunvelyofa, adgili gansaxlebis sistemaSi.
qalaqis (raionis) zonirebisas mxedvelobaSi miiReba Semdegi kriteriumebi:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
ekonomikuri infrastruqtura
satransporto infrastruqtura
socialuri infrastruqtura
keTilmowyoba
bunebriv-ekologiuri pirobebi
prestiJuloba
adgili gansaxlebis sistemaSi
uZravi qonebis mdgomareobis maxasiaTeblis (k) mniSvnelobis gansazRvra unda
moxdes adgilze vizualuri daTvalierebiT, Semdegi parametrebis
gaTvaliswinebiT:kapitaluroba, gegmareba, Weri, adgilmdebareoba, prestiJuloba,
keTilmowyoba, avariuloba, cveTa.
yovelive ZemoT Tqmuli imis misaniSneblad dagvWirdeba rom darCenili
saprivatizacio sawarmoebi gaiyidos Tavis realur fasSi, rom, Tu sawarmoebi
Semosavlianebia, moxdes am Semosavlebis diskontireba. Cven mier zemoT
aRniSnuli meTodiT gansazRvruli axlandeli Rirebuleba iqneba maTi
amJamindeli gasayidi(saprivatizebo) fasi.
Cven vfiqrobT, rom am meTodiT gaangariSebuli sawyisi saprivatizebo fasebi
ufro realuria Tumca isinic Seicaven cdomilebis umniSvnelo procents.