Cap 36- Aplicación de los Modelos de Distribución de Especies (MDE)

Impactos y Vulnerabilidad
M.A. Zavala1*, P. Ruiz-Benito1,2, M. Benito-Garzón3,4, R. García-Valdés1,5
1
Grupo de Ecología y Restauración Forestal, Departamento de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, España
2
Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Natural Sciences. University of Stirling.FK9 4LA, Stirling, United Kingdom
3
CNRS, Laboratoire d’Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution, Université Paris-Sud, CNRS, Orsay Cedex, Francia
4
CNRS, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex, Francia
5
CNRS, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Montpellier, Francia
*
36
Correo electrónico : [email protected]
Aplicación de los Modelos de Distribución de Especies (MDE)
para el análisis de los efectos del cambio climático
en los bosques ibéricos
Resultados clave
‡ (VWXGLRV EDVDGRV HQ 0RGHORV GH 'LVWULEXFLyQ GH
(VSHFLHV0'(VXJLHUHQTXHEDMRHVFHQDULRVGHFDPELR
FOLPiWLFRODVSULQFLSDOHVHVSHFLHVDUEyUHDVGHODSHQtQVXOD
LEpULFDSRGUtDQYHUUHGXFLGDVGUiVWLFDPHQWHODV]RQDVTXH
OHVVRQFOLPiWLFDPHQWHIDYRUDEOHV
‡0RGHORVPiVUHDOLVWDVELROyJLFDPHQWH\TXHLQFOX\HQ
PHFDQLVPRVFRPRODGLVSHUVLyQODSODVWLFLGDGIHQRWtSLFD
ODDGDSWDFLyQORFDORFRPSHQVDFLyQGHPRJUi¿FDVXJLHUHQ
TXH ORV 0'( WUDGLFLRQDOHV SRGUtDQ VREUHHVWLPDU OD
YXOQHUDELOLGDGGHORVERVTXHVIUHQWHDOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR
‡ /RV PRGHORV VXJLHUHQ TXH ORV ERVTXHV LEpULFRV QR VH
KDOODQ HQ HTXLOLEULR FRQ HO FOLPD VLQR TXH KDQ HVWDGR
VXIULHQGR SURFHVRV GH H[SDQVLyQ GXUDQWH ODV ~OWLPDV
GpFDGDV(OFDPELRFOLPiWLFRMXQWRDFDPELRVHQHOXVR
GHO VXHOR SXHGHQ DFHOHUDU R UDOHQWL]DU HVWRV FDPELRV
GHSHQGLHQGR GH OD HVSHFLH HQ FXHVWLyQ VX GLVWULEXFLyQ
DFWXDO\IDFWRUHVKLVWyULFRV
‡ 'DGR TXH ORV IDFWRUHV FOLPiWLFRV VRQ GLItFLOPHQWH
FRQWURODEOHV OD DGDSWDFLyQ DSDUHFH FRPR XQD SLH]D
FODYH GHQWUR GH OD JHVWLyQ IRUHVWDO SDUD LQFUHPHQWDU OD
UHVLVWHQFLD\UHVLOLHQFLDGHODVIRUPDFLRQHVIRUHVWDOHVHQ
(VSDxD
Contexto
/D YXOQHUDELOLGDG VH GHÀQH FRPR HO JUDGR HQ
TXH XQD GHWHUPLQDGD SREODFLyQ HVSHFLH R HFRVLVWHPD
HV VXVFHSWLEOH D ORV FDPELRV HQ ODV FRQGLFLRQHV GH VX
HQWRUQR,3&&/DYXOQHUDELOLGDGIUHQWHDOFDPELR
FOLPiWLFRFRQVWDGHWUHVFRPSRQHQWHVODH[SRVLFLyQLH
OD PDJQLWXG GHO FDPELR OD VHQVLELOLGDG LH HO JUDGR
HQ HOTXHHV DIHFWDGR SRUHO FDPELR\OD FDSDFLGDG GH
DGDSWDFLyQLHODKDELOLGDGSDUDDMXVWDUVHDOFDPELR/RV
HVFHQDULRVHVWLPDGRVGHFDPELRFOLPiWLFRTXHVHEDVDQ
HQ GLVWLQWDV SUR\HFFLRQHV GH PRGHORV GH FLUFXODFLyQ
DWPRVIpULFD JHQHUDO SURSRUFLRQDQ XQD LPSRUWDQWH
KHUUDPLHQWD SDUD DQDOL]DU HO JUDGR GH H[SRVLFLyQ GH
ODV SREODFLRQHV HVSHFLHV R HFRVLVWHPDV 'DZVRQ HW DO
/RVERVTXHVLEpULFRVVRQFRQVLGHUDGRVFRPRDOWDPHQWHYXOQHUDEOHVDOFDPELRJOREDOHVSHFLDOPHQWHHQ
ODUHJLyQ0HGLWHUUiQHDORTXHSRGUtDDOWHUDUHOVXPLQLVWUR
GH VHUYLFLRV HFRVLVWpPLFRV FODYHV 6FKU|WHU HW DO /LQGQHUHWDO(VWRVHGHEHDTXHODVSUHGLFFLRQHV
GHFDPELRFOLPiWLFRSUHYpQXQFDPELRWDQWRHQHOFOLPD
SURPHGLRSDUWLFXODUPHQWHXQDXPHQWRHQODVWHPSHUDWXUDV\XQDXPHQWRHQODYDULDELOLGDGGHODVSUHFLSLWDFLRQHV
FRQ GHVFHQVRV HQ HO VXU GH OD SHQtQVXOD LEpULFD &KULVWHQVHQHWDO$GHPiVVHSUHYpXQDPD\RULQWHQVLGDG\IUHFXHQFLDGHHYHQWRVFOLPiWLFRVH[WUHPRVFRPR
VHTXtDVTXHDXPHQWDUtDQHOHVWUpVKtGULFRHQHFRVLVWHPDV
\D OLPLWDGRV SRU OD GLVSRQLELOLGDG GH DJXD 6FKU|WHU HW
DO0DGULJDO*RQ]iOH]\=DYDOD$OJXQDVGH
ODVHVSHFLHVIRUHVWDOHVPiVDPSOLDPHQWHGLVWULEXLGDVHQ
(XURSDSUHVHQWDQVXOtPLWHGHGLVWULEXFLyQPHULGLRQDOHQ
OD SHQtQVXOD LEpULFD SHM Pinus sylvestris Abies alba
FRQORTXHXQDXPHQWRGHOHVWUpVKtGULFRSRGUtDFDXVDU
UHGXFFLRQHVHQODYLWDOLGDGFUHFLPLHQWR\PD\RUHVWDVDV
GHPRUWDOLGDGTXHSRGUtDQGHULYDUHQUHWUDFFLRQHVHQHO
UDQJR GH GLVWULEXFLyQ GH ODV HVSHFLHV +DPSH 3HWLW
-XPSHWDO
/RV 0RGHORV GH 'LVWULEXFLyQ GH (VSHFLHV
0'( WUDGLFLRQDOHV VH EDVDQ HQ GDWRV GH RFXUUHQFLD
LH SUHVHQFLDDXVHQFLD R DEXQGDQFLD GH ODV HVSHFLHV
SDUD HVWXGLDU FXiOHV VRQ ORV SULQFLSDOHV IDFWRUHV TXH
GHWHUPLQDQODGLVWULEXFLyQGHODVHVSHFLHVRHVWLPDUORV
419
Figura 1
Figura 1. 3DVRVDWHQHUHQFXHQWDSDUDODHODERUDFLyQGH0RGHORVGH'LVWULEXFLyQGH(VSHFLHV/RVGDWRVGHRFXUUHQFLDRDEXQGDQFLDGHHVSHFLHV
WHQHU
WHQ
HU HQ FXH
FXHQWD
QWD SDU
SDUDD OD HOD
HODERU
ERUDFL
DFLyQ
yQ GH 0RG
0RGHOR
HORVV GH 'LV
'LVWUL
WULEXF
EXFLyQ
LyQ GH (VS
(VSHFL
HFLHV
HV /RV GDW
GDWRV
RV GH RFX
RFXUUH
UUHQFL
QFLDD R DEX
DEXQGD
QGD
GHVGHODHVSHFLHAKDVWDODHVSHFLHNSPP.A, … , SPP.NVHXQHQFRQLQIRUPDFLyQDPELHQWDOSRUHMHPSORFOLPiWLFDGHVGHODYDULDEOHFOLPiWLFD1
KDVWDODYDULDEOHFOLPiWLFDZCLI.1, …, CLI.Z6HVHOHFFLRQDXQDRXQFRQMXQWRGHWpFQLFDVSDUDHODMXVWH\ODYDOLGDFLyQGHOPRGHORSXGLHQGRKDFHU
SUHGLFFLRQHVGHODLGRQHLGDGGHKiELWDWSDUDGLIHUHQWHVHVSHFLHV\GHULTXH]DGHHVSHFLHVSHM$UDXMR1HZ
)XHQWH(ODERUDFLyQSURSLDDSDUWLUGH$UDXMR1HZ\%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO
FDPELRVSRWHQFLDOHVHQHVWDVGLVWULEXFLRQHVEDMRQXHYDV
FRQGLFLRQHV DPELHQWDOHV &DVVLQL YHU )LJXUD /RV 0'( WUDGLFLRQDOHV KDQ VLGR DPSOLDPHQWH XVDGRV
SDUD LGHQWLÀFDU FDPELRV HQ HO iUHD SRWHQFLDO GH ODV
HVSHFLHV GHELGR DO FDPELR FOLPiWLFR LGHQWLÀFDQGR TXp
HVSHFLHV SXHGHQ YHU PiV DIHFWDGD VX GLVWULEXFLyQ DQWH
GLVWLQWRVHVFHQDULRVGHFDPELRSHM(OLWK/HDWKZLFN
/DVHQVLELOLGDGIUHQWHDOFDPELRFOLPiWLFRYLHQH
GHWHUPLQDGDSRUHOJUDGRHQHOTXHODVXSHUYLYHQFLDOD
SHUVLVWHQFLDHOFUHFLPLHQWRODUHSURGXFFLyQRODUHJHQHUDFLyQGHODVSREODFLRQHVGHXQDHVSHFLHGHSHQGHQGH
ODVFRQGLFLRQHVDPELHQWDOHV3RUORWDQWRODVHQVLELOLGDG
SXHGH VHU H[SORUDGD \ HVWLPDGD PHGLDQWH HVWXGLRV REVHUYDFLRQDOHV\H[SHULPHQWDOHV\HOXVRGHWpFQLFDVGH
PRGHOL]DFLyQ'DZVRQHWDO/RVLPSDFWRVSRWHQFLDOHVGHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFRVRQORVHIHFWRVFXDQWLÀFDEOHV
\HVSHFtÀFRVTXHXQFDPELRDPELHQWDOSXHGHFDXVDUHQ
ODV SREODFLRQHV HVSHFLHV R FRPXQLGDGHV \ TXH GHSHQGHQWDQWRGHODH[SRVLFLyQDHVWHFDPELRDPELHQWDOFRPR
420
GHODVHQVLELOLGDGDOPLVPR/LQGQHUHWDO
/RVimpactos potenciales \OD vulnerabilidad
IUHQWH DO FDPELR FOLPiWLFR SXHGH HVWLPDUVH XVDQGR
YDULDQWHVGHORV0'(TXHLQFOX\HQXQmayor realismo
biológico SHM0RQWR\DHWDO3XUYHVHWDO
.HHQDQHWDO*DUFtD9DOGpVHWDO/RV0'(
WUDGLFLRQDOHV LH SDUDPHWUL]DGRV FRQ GDWRV FOLPiWLFRV
\ RFXUUHQFLD R DEXQGDQFLD GH HVSHFLHV SUHVHQWDQ XQD
VHULH GH OLPLWDFLRQHV FRPR SRU HMHPSOR L QR LQFOXLU
ODV LQWHUDFFLRQHV HQWUH HVSHFLHV SHM FRPSHWHQFLD R
IDFLOLWDFLyQ LL QR LQFOXLU OD FDSDFLGDG GH GLVSHUVLyQ
GHODVHVSHFLHVLHODSUREDELOLGDGGHSUHVHQFLDSXHGH
DXPHQWDU VL OD HVSHFLHV RFXUUHQ HQ ]RQDV FHUFDQDV R
LLLDVXPLUTXHODVHVSHFLHVVHHQFXHQWUDQHQHTXLOLEULR
FOLPiWLFR 'H HVWD IRUPD DOJXQRV 0'( GH QXHYD
JHQHUDFLyQSXHGHQSDOLDUSDUFLDOPHQWHHVWDVGHÀFLHQFLDV
YHU 7DEOD 5XL]%HQLWR HW DO D LQWURGXFLHQGR
SRUHMHPSORODFDSDFLGDGGHDGDSWDFLyQGHODVHVSHFLHV
PHGLDQWHODSODVWLFLGDGIHQRWtSLFD\ODDGDSWDFLyQORFDO
%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDOHOHIHFWRGHODVYDULDFLRQHV
Tabla 1. 5HIHUHQFLDVGHORVWUDEDMRVSUHVHQWDGRVHQODSUHVHQWHFRQWULEXFLyQYDULDEOHUHVSXHVWDHVFDOD\WLSRGHPRGHORXVDQGRLQGLFDQGRVL
H[LVWHPHMRUDUHVSHFWRDORV0RGHORVGH'LVWULEXFLyQGH(VSHFLHV0'(
Modelo
Referencia
Variable respuesta
Escala
Modelo de Distribución
de Especies (MDE)
Benito-Garzón et al.
(2008)
Rango de distribución
de la especie
Malla 1 km2
(20 especies)
MDE parametrizados
con plasticidad
y adaptación local
Benito-Garzón et al.
(2011)
Supervivencia
y rango de distribución
de la especie
Observacionales (IFN)
Experimentales
(ensayos de procedencia)
(2 especies)
MDE parametrizados
con crecimiento
y mortalidad
Benito-Garzón et al.
(2013)
Crecimiento, mortalidad
y rango de distribución
de la especie
Parcela IFN
(11 especies)
Modelo estocástico
dinámico de ocupación
de teselas (SPOM)
García-Valdés et al.
(2013)
Colonizaciones
y extinciones locales
(escenarios con
y sin cambio climático)
Parcela IFN
(10 especies)
Modelo estocástico
dinámico de ocupación
de teselas (SPOM)
García-Valdés et al.
(En prep.)
Colonizaciones
y extinciones locales
(escenarios con
y sin cambios de hábitat)
Parcela IFN
(23 especies)
)XHQWH(ODERUDFLyQSURSLDDSDUWLUGH%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO\*DUFtD9DOGpVHQSUHSDUDFLyQ
HQ HO FUHFLPLHQWR \ OD PRUWDOLGDG HQ ORV UDQJRV GH
GLVWULEXFLyQGHODVHVSHFLHV%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO
HO HTXLOLEULR GH ODV HVSHFLHV FRQ HO FOLPD XVDQGR WDVDV
GHFRORQL]DFLyQ\H[WLQFLyQ*DUFtD9DOGpVHWDO
R LQFOX\HQGR FDPELRV HQ HO KiELWDW SRWHQFLDO GH ODV
HVSHFLHVGHELGRVDFDPELRVGHXVR*DUFtD9DOGpVHWDO
(Q HVWH WUDEDMR SUHVHQWDPRV HVFHQDULRV GH
SRVLEOHV UHVSXHVWDV GH ORV ERVTXHV DO FDPELR FOLPiWLFR
DSDUWLUGHPRGHORVTXHFRQWHPSODQGLIHUHQWHVSURFHVRV
TXH VH UHODFLRQDQ FRQ OD FDSDFLGDG GH UHVLVWHQFLD \
UHVLOLHQFLDGH ORV ERVTXHV L 0RGHORV WUDGLFLRQDOHVGH
KiELWDWEDVDGRVHQSUHVHQFLDDXVHQFLDPRGHORGHSDUWLGD
RGHUHIHUHQFLDLL0RGHORVGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHHVSHFLHV
SDUDPHWUL]DGRVFRQGDWRVGHVXSHUYLYHQFLD\DGDSWDFLyQ
ORFDOLLL0RGHORVGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHHVSHFLHVLQFOX\HQGR
FUHFLPLHQWR \ PRUWDOLGDG LY 0RGHORV HVWRFiVWLFRV
GLQiPLFRV HVSDFLDOPHQWH H[SOtFLWRV TXH VLPXODQ OD
FRORQL]DFLyQ \ OD H[WLQFLyQ ORFDO GH ODV HVSHFLHV EDMR
HVFHQDULRVGHFDPELRFOLPiWLFR\SpUGLGDGHKiELWDW
Figura 2
Figura 2. 9DULDFLyQSDUDHOSHULRGRHQODVXSHUÀFLHRFXSDGDSRUODVSULQFLSDOHVHVSHFLHVDUEyUHDVGHODSHQtQVXODLEpULFDEDMRHOHVFHQDULR
GH FDPELR FOLPiWLFR &65,2$ SUR\HFWDGR SDUD OD SHQtQVXOD LEpULFD D HVSHFLHV 0HGLWHUUiQHDV E HVSHFLHV VXE0HGLWHUUiQHDV F HVSHFLHV GH
PRQWDxD\GHVSHFLHVFRQGLVWULEXFLyQ(XURSHD
)XHQWH'DWRVREWHQLGRVGHPRGHORVGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHHVSHFLHVVHJ~Q%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO
421
Resultados y discusión
(i) Modelos de distribución de especies tradicionales
basados en presencia/ausencia y clima
(Q %HQLWR*DU]yQ HW DO VH XVDQ 0'(
WUDGLFLRQDOHVSDUDPHWUL]DGRVFRQGDWRVGHRFXUUHQFLDGH
HVSHFLHV\HVFHQDULRVGHFDPELRFOLPiWLFR/RVUHVXOWDGRVGHHVWHWUDEDMRVXJLHUHQTXHODVSULQFLSDOHVHVSHFLHV
GH iUEROHV TXH VH GLVWULEX\HQ HQ OD SHQtQVXOD LEpULFD
SRGUtDQ YHU UHGXFLGD GH IRUPD GUiVWLFD VX GLVWULEXFLyQ
SRWHQFLDOGHELGRDOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR(VWDGLVPLQXFLyQ
HQ HO iUHD GH GLVWULEXFLyQ SRWHQFLDO HQ HO IXWXUR SRGUtD
VHUHVSHFLDOPHQWHSURQXQFLDGDHQHOFDVRGHODVFRQtIHUDV
GHPRQWDxDPinus sylvestrisP. uncinata\Abies alba
VHJXLGRVSRUERVTXHVGHFagus sylvatica\Quercus petraea YHU)LJXUD\(VWDDSUR[LPDFLyQQRREVWDQWH
QR LQFOX\H SURFHVRV LPSRUWDQWHV TXH SRGUtDQ LQÁXLU HQ
ODGLVWULEXFLyQGHHVSHFLHVVRPHWLGDVDOFDPELRFOLPiWLFRFRPRODVLQWHUDFFLRQHVELyWLFDVODLPSRUWDQFLDGHODV
FRQGLFLRQHV PLFURFOLPiWLFDV R SURFHVRV GH DGDSWDFLyQ
'DZVRQHWDO.HHQDQHWDO
(ii) Modelos de distribución de especies parametrizados
con datos de supervivencia y adaptación local
%HQLWR*DU]yQ HW DO SDUDPHWUL]DURQ
0'(SDUDSREODFLRQHVGHPinus pinaster \Pinus sylvestris,SDUDODVFXDOHVH[LVWtDQGLIHUHQFLDVLQWUDHVSHFtÀFDV
HQODVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHELGDVDODSODVWLFLGDGIHQRWtSLFD\
Figura 3
Figura 3. 0DSDVFRQODGLVWULEXFLyQDFWXDO\IXWXUDSDUDHODxRGHODVHVSHFLHVDPinus
0DSDV FRQ OD GLV
0DS
GLVWUL
WULEXF
EXFLyQ
LyQ DFW
DFWXDO
XDO \ IXW
IXWXUD SDUD HO DxR GH ODV HVSHFL
HFLHV D Pin
Pinus syl
sylvestri
sylvestrisEPinus
tris E Pin
Pinus uncina
uncinataFAbies
inata
ta F Abi albaG
Fagus sylvatica\HQuercus petraea
)XHQWH'DWRVREWHQLGRVGHPRGHORVGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHHVSHFLHVVHJ~Q%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO
422
Figura 4
Figura 4. 3URPHGLRGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDHQFDGDVLWLR\JUXSRGHSURFHGHQFLDVSDUDODVHVSHFLHVDPinus
PHGLR
PHG
LR GH
LYHQFL
LYH
QFL FDG VLW
VLWLR
LR
GH
FHG LDV
ODV
HFL D Pin pin
pinast
pinaster \EPinus
E Pin syl
sylvestris
)XHQWH$GDSWDGRGH%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO
ODGLYHUVLGDGJHQpWLFDXVDQGRGDWRVGHOD5HG1DFLRQDO
GH (QVD\RV GH 3URFHGHQFLDV *(1)25(' KWWSZZZ
JHQIRUHGHVLQGH[KWPO/DFDSDFLGDGGHDGDSWDFLyQGH
ODV HVSHFLHV LH VX KDELOLGDG SDUD DMXVWDUVH D FDPELRV
GHSHQGH WDQWR GH OD SODVWLFLGDG IHQRWtSLFD FRPR GH OD
DGDSWDFLyQORFDO3RUXQDSDUWHODSODVWLFLGDGIHQRWtSLFD
VHGHÀQHFRPRODFDSDFLGDGGHXQGHWHUPLQDGRJHQRWLSRGHSURGXFLUGLIHUHQWHVIHQRWLSRVEDMRGLYHUVDVFRQGLFLRQHVDPELHQWDOHV*DUODQG.HOO\'HHVWDIRUPDODVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHODVHVSHFLHVSXHGHVHUVXSHULRUVL
H[LVWHXQDHOHYDGDSODVWLFLGDGIHQRWtSLFD3RURWUDSDUWH
ODDGDSWDFLyQORFDOFRQVLGHUDODGLIHUHQFLDFLyQJHQpWLFD
HQWUH SREODFLRQHV FRPR FRQVHFXHQFLD GH SUHVLRQHV GH
VHOHFFLyQ\RDLVODPLHQWRSREODFLRQDOSHM$QGHUVRQHW
DO7DQWRHQPinus pinaster FRPRHQPinus sylvestrisVHREVHUYDURQGLIHUHQFLDVHQODVXSHUYLYHQFLDPHGLD
GHODVGLVWLQWDVSURFHGHQFLDVHQORVGLVWLQWRVVLWLRVHVWXGLDGRVYHU)LJXUD&XDQGRVHFRPSDUDURQSUHGLFFLRQHV
HQ HO UDQJR GH ODV HVSHFLHV EDMR HVFHQDULRV GH FDPELR
FOLPiWLFR VH REVHUYy TXH HO GHVFHQVR HQ HO UDQJR GH
GLVWULEXFLyQ GH ODV HVSHFLHV IXH PHQRU FRQVLGHUDQGR OD
DGDSWDFLyQORFDOGHODVHVSHFLHVTXHHQORV0'(WUDGLFLRQDOHVFDOLEUDGRV~QLFDPHQWHFRQGDWRVGHSUHVHQFLDDXVHQFLDGHODVHVSHFLHV(VWDVGLIHUHQFLDVHQODVXSHUYLYHQ-
FLDSXHGHQGHEHUVHWDQWRDODSODVWLFLGDGIHQRWtSLFDFRPR
DODDGDSWDFLyQORFDOORTXHVXJLHUHTXHORV0'(WUDGLFLRQDOHVWHQGHUtDDVXEHVWLPDUORVUDQJRVGHGLVWULEXFLyQ
GHHVSHFLHVEDMRHVFHQDULRVGHFDPELRFOLPiWLFR
$Vt VH REVHUYDURQ GLIHUHQFLDV HQWUH ORV UHVXOWDGRVREWHQLGRVSRUORV0'(WUDGLFLRQDOHV\ORV0'(
SDUDPHWUL]DGRVFRQODLQIRUPDFLyQGHORVHQVD\RVGHSURFHGHQFLDYHU)LJXUD/DSUHGLFFLyQGHVXSHUYLYHQFLD
SDUDHODxRXWLOL]DQGRWRGRVORVHQVD\RVGHSURFHGHQFLD SDUD Pinus sylvestris PXHVWUD XQ GHVFHQVR GH OD
GLVWULEXFLyQSRWHQFLDOGHODHVSHFLHSHURPDQWHQLHQGROD
PD\RUSDUWHGHVXiUHDGHGLVWULEXFLyQ)LJXUDDPLHQWUDV TXH HO GHVFHQVR HV PXFKR PD\RU VHJ~Q ORV 0'(
WUDGLFLRQDOHVTXHQRFRQVLGHUDQGLIHUHQFLDVGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDHQIXQFLyQGHODVSURFHGHQFLDVGHODVHVSHFLHVLH
~QLFDPHQWHFRQVLGHUDQWRGDODGLVWULEXFLyQUHJLRQDOGHOD
HVSHFLH)LJXUDE(QHOFDVRGHPinus pinasterFXDQGRVHFRQVLGHUDVRORODSUHVHQFLDDXVHQFLDGHODHVSHFLH
OD UHGXFFLyQ GHO iUHD GH RFXSDFLyQ HQ HV PXFKR
PD\RUTXHFXDQGRVHFRQVLGHUDODVXSHUYLYHQFLDSDUDPHWUL]DGD FRQ ODV SURFHGHQFLDV GH OD HVSHFLH )LJXUD F
G (VWRV UHVXOWDGRV VXJLHUHQ TXH WDQWR OD YDULDELOLGDG
LQWHUHVSHFtÀFDFRPRODLQWUDHVSHFtÀFDSXHGHQVHUIDFWR423
Figura 5
Figura 5. 3UREDE
3UREDELOLGDGGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDSDUDHVFHQDULRVGHFDPELRFOLPiWLFR$+DG&0HQHODxRFRQVLGHUDQGRMXQWDVWRGDVODVSURFHGHQFLDV
EDELOL
LOLGDG
GDG GH VXSHUYLYH
LYHQFL
QFLD
HVFHQDULR
ULRV GH FDPELR
ELR FOL
FOLPiW
PiWLFR
LFR $ +DG
+DG&0
&0 HO DxR FRQVLG
VLGHUDQGR
QGR MXQ
MXQWDV
WDV WRG
WRGDV ODV SURFHG
de Pinus sylvestris \ Pinus pinaster D\FUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHDGDSWDGRGH%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO\FDOLEUDQGRHOPRGHORVLQFRQVLGHUDUODVGLIHUHQWHV
SURFHGHQFLDVE\GUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHDGDSWDGRGH%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO
)XHQWH$GDSWDGRGH%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO\26(
UHVGHWHUPLQDQWHVGHODGLVWULEXFLyQSRWHQFLDOGHODVHVSHFLHVTXHGHEHQFRQVLGHUDUVHSDUDSUHGHFLUODGLVWULEXFLyQ
GHODVHVSHFLHVEDMRHVFHQDULRVGHFDPELRFOLPiWLFR
(iii) Modelos de distribución de especies incluyendo
crecimiento y mortalidad
%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDOVHREVHUYDURQTXH
HO FUHFLPLHQWR \ OD PRUWDOLGDG DUEyUHD GHSHQGH GH QXPHURVRV IDFWRUHV HQWUH ORV FXDOHV OD FRPSHWHQFLD \ HO
FOLPDWXYLHURQXQSDSHOFODYHYHUWDPELpQ*yPH]$SDULFLR HW DO 5XL]%HQLWR HW DO E /DV SUR\HFFLRQHV EDMR HVFHQDULRV GH FDPELR FOLPiWLFR PRVWUDURQ
TXHGHODVHVSHFLHVDQDOL]DGDVSRGUtDQDXPHQWDUHO
FUHFLPLHQWRSHURTXHHVWHFUHFLPLHQWRSXHGHYHUVHFRQWUDUUHVWDGRSRUXQDXPHQWRHQODPRUWDOLGDG7DEOD$
SHVDUGHOFDUiFWHUUHODWLYDPHQWHHVWRFiVWLFR\PXOWLIDFWRULDOGHODPRUWDOLGDGHVWRVUHVXOWDGRVVXJLHUHQTXHLQFOXVRVLODVWDVDVGHFUHFLPLHQWRDXPHQWDQEDMRHVFHQDULRV
GHFDPELRFOLPiWLFRODPRUWDOLGDGSXHGHMXJDUXQSDSHO
FODYHGHOLPLWDQGRORVUDQJRVGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHODVHVSHFLHV/LQHVHWDO'LHW]H0RRUFURIW(VWRV
UHVXOWDGRVFRQFXHUGDQFRQUHVXOWDGRVSUHYLRVTXHVXJLHUHQTXHLQFUHPHQWRVHQODWHPSHUDWXUDSRGUtDQDXPHQWDU
ODVWDVDVGHFUHFLPLHQWRDUEyUHR0DUWtQH]9LODOWDHWDO
*yPH]$SDULFLRHWDOSHURWDPELpQODVWDVDV
GH PRUWDOLGDG &DUQLFHU HW DO 5XL]%HQLWR HW DO
E
$GHPiV%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDOFRPSDUDURQ ODV SUHGLFFLRQHV GH ORV PRGHORV GH FUHFLPLHQWR \
PRUWDOLGDG VREUH OD LGRQHLGDG GHO KiELWDW FRQ ORV PRGHORVFOiVLFRVGHQLFKREDVDGRVHQRFXUUHQFLDGHHVSHFLHV
%HQLWR*DU]yQ HW DO /RV 0'( GHPRJUiÀFRV
SUHGLMHURQPD\RUHVUHGXFFLRQHVGHKiELWDWSDUDHVSHFLHV
424
FRQOtPLWHVXUGHVXGLVWULEXFLyQHQODSHQtQVXODLEpULFD
SHMAbies albaFagus sylvatica \Quercus roburGHELGRSUREDEOHPHQWHDDOWDVWDVDVGHPRUWDOLGDG\FLHUWDH[SDQVLyQGHOOtPLWHGHGLVWULEXFLyQQRUWHGHHVSHFLHV0HGLWHUUiQHDVPiVDGDSWDGDVDODVFRQGLFLRQHVFOLPiWLFDVGHO
HVFHQDULR$Pinus pinea \Pinus nigraYHU)LJXUD
(iv) Modelos dinámicos espacialmente explícitos
*DUFtD9DOGpV HW DO PRVWUDURQ TXH HO
HIHFWRTXHHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFRSXHGHWHQHUHQODGLVWULEXFLyQ JHRJUiÀFD GH ORV GH iUEROHV GHSHQGH WDQWR GHO
JUDGRGHHTXLOLEULRHQWUHHVWDVGLVWULEXFLRQHV\HOFOLPD
FyPRGHODFDSDFLGDGGHGLVSHUVLyQGHODVHVSHFLHV\GH
VXJUDGRGHDGDSWDFLyQDODVFRQGLFLRQHVFOLPiWLFDVIXWXUDV/RVUHVXOWDGRVGHOPRGHORGLQiPLFRXWLOL]DGRHQHVWH
WUDEDMRVXJLHUHQTXHODVHVSHFLHVGHiUEROHVPiVFRPXQHV
HQ(VSDxDQRVHHQFXHQWUDQHQHTXLOLEULRFOLPiWLFR'H
KHFKRHOiUHDTXHRFXSDQHVWDVHVSHFLHVHVWiDXPHQWDQGR DFWXDOPHQWH WDQWR D QLYHO ORFDO LH DXPHQWDQGR OD
DEXQGDQFLD HQ DOJXQDV ]RQDV FRPR D QLYHO UHJLRQDO
LHDXPHQWDQGRHOUDQJRGHGLVWULEXFLyQUHJLRQDO(VWDV
H[SDQVLRQHVDGHPiVVHSURORQJDUiQSUREDEOHPHQWHGXUDQWHWRGRHOVLJOR\PXFKDVHVSHFLHVWDUGDUiQVLJORVHQ
DOFDQ]DUXQHVWDGRGHHTXLOLEULRRSVHXGRHTXLOLEULRFRQ
HO FOLPD$O PLVPR WLHPSR HO FDPELR FOLPiWLFR SXHGH
FDPELDUHVWDGLQiPLFDGHH[SDQVLyQDIHFWDQGRGHPDQHUDPX\GLVWLQWDDXQDVHVSHFLHVXRWUDVHQIXQFLyQGHVX
DGDSWDFLyQDXQWLSRGHFOLPD\GHODORFDOL]DFLyQDFWXDO
GH VXV SREODFLRQHV SURFHVRV GH FRPSHWHQFLD FRQ RWUDV
HVSHFLHVSHUWXUEDFLRQHVJHVWLyQIRUHVWDOHWF'HQWURGHO
FRQMXQWR GH HVSHFLHV HVWXGLDGDV ORV iUEROHV VXE0HGLWHUUiQHRV \ WHPSODGRV FRQ SREODFLRQHV HQ UHIXJLRV GH
PRQWDxDHQOD0HVHWD&HQWUDOSRGUtDQUHGXFLUVXDFWXDO
Figura 6
Figura 6. 0DSDVGRQGHVHFRPSDUDODLGRQHLGDGGHOKiELWDWHQPRGHORVGHQLFKRWUDGLFLRQDOHV%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDOL]TXLHUGD\PRGHORVGH
QLFKRSDUDPHWUL]DGRVFRQYDULDEOHVGHPRJUiÀFDV%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDOGHUHFKDHQWUHODVFRQGLFLRQHVFOLPiWLFDVDFWXDOHV\HODxRSDUDODV
HVSHFLHVAbies albaD\EUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHFagus sylvaticaF\GUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH\Quercus roburH\IUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH
)XHQWH$GDSWDGRGH%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO\%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO
Tabla 2. &UHFLPLHQWRPPDxR\PRUWDOLGDG1RiUEROHVGHORVPRGHORVGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHHVSHFLHVSDUDPHWUL]DGRV~QLFDPHQWHFRQ
YDULDEOHVFOLPiWLFDVSDUDODVFRQGLFLRQHVDFWXDOHV\HODxRXVDQGRHOHVFHQDULR$GHO,3&&,3&&/D~OWLPDFROXPQDLQGLFDHODXPHQWR
RGHVFHQVRGHOFUHFLPLHQWR\ODPRUWDOLGDGSDUDHODxR
Especies
Actuales media
[min – max]
Crecimiento
Mortalidad
2100 media
[min – max]
Crecimiento
Mortalidad
Abies alba
1.91
[0.00 - 9.48]
0.50
[0.00 - 0.99]
1.98
[0.00 - 7.23]
0.55
[0.13 - 0.72]
Castanea sativa
0.96
[0.00 - 6.21]
0.28
[0.00 -1.00]
1.18
[0.00 - 5.09]
0.33
[0.05 - 0.72]
Fagus sylvatica
1.25
[0.00 - 10.59]
0.16
[0.00 - 0.99]
1.33
[0.00 - 8.24]
0.26
[0.01 - 0.60]
Pinus halepensis
1.26
[0.00 - 38.22]
0.16
[0.00 - 1.00]
1.61
[0.00 - 29.89]
0.28
[0.04 - 0.74]
Pinus nigra
1.38
[0.00 - 15.26]
0.15
[0.00 - 1.00]
1.56
[0.00 - 9.20]
0.24
[0.01 - 0.58]
Pinus pinaster
1.60
[0.00 - 37.94]
0.43
[0.00 -1.00]
1.83
[0.00 - 18.73]
0.54
[0.12 - 0.86]
Pinus pinea
1.65
[0.00 - 21.82]
0.38
[0.00 – 1.00]
2.84
[0.00 -14.55]
0.44
[0.15 - 0.84]
Pinus sylvestris
1.36
[0.00 - 23.71]
0.16
[0.00 - 1.00]
2.21
[0.00-12.45]
0.28
[0.013 - 0.58]
Quercus petraea
2.80
[0.41 - 8.76]
0.25
[0.00 - 0.99]
2.70
[1.00 - 4.75]
0.34
[0.01 - 0.71]
Quercus robur
1.08
[0.00 - 11.59]
0.30
[0.00 - 1.00]
1.15
[0.00 - 8.17]
0.33
[0.04 - 0.66]
Quercus suber
1.60
[0.00 - 30.44]
0.55
[0.00 – 1.00]
2.09
[1.00 - 13.65]
0.44
[0.15 - 0.87]
Presente
– 2100
Crecimiento
Presente
– 2100
Mortalidad
)XHQWH$GDSWDGRGH%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDO
425
H[SDQVLyQGHELGRDOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR6LQHPEDUJRODV
HVSHFLHVWHPSODGDVTXHRFXSDQHOQRUWHGHODSHQtQVXOD
LEpULFD QR WHQGHUtDQ D YHU DIHFWDGDV VLJQLÀFDWLYDPHQWH
VXVWUD\HFWRULDVH[SDQVLYDV\ODVHVSHFLHVPHGLWHUUiQHDV
QRVXIULUtDQFDPELRVROOHJDUtDQDRFXSDUH[WHQVLRQHVD~Q
PD\RUHVEDMRHVFHQDULRVGHFDPELRFOLPiWLFR)LJXUD
(Q *DUFtD9DOGpV HW DO VH HVWXGLy HO
HIHFWR FRPELQDGR TXH GLIHUHQWHV HVFHQDULRV GH FDPELR
FOLPiWLFR\SpUGLGDGHKiELWDWSXHGHQWHQHUVREUHODGLVWULEXFLyQ GH ODV HVSHFLHV GH iUEROHV HQ (VSDxD /RV UHVXOWDGRV PRVWUDURQ TXH HO FDPELR FOLPiWLFRSRGUtD GLVPLQXLUHOiUHDGHGLVWULEXFLyQIXWXUDGHGRVWHUFLRVGHODV
HVSHFLHVHVWXGLDGDVVLFRPSDUDPRVHVWDVGLVWULEXFLRQHV
FRQORVQLYHOHVGHRFXSDFLyQTXHVHREWHQGUtDQVLHOFOLPDVHPDQWXYLHUDHVWDEOHQLYHOGHUHIHUHQFLD(OWHUFLR
GHHVSHFLHVUHVWDQWHVYHUtDQVLQHPEDUJRDXPHQWDGDVX
iUHDGHRFXSDFLyQYHU)LJXUD\$OPLVPRWLHPSR
VL HQ XQD VLWXDFLyQ GH FDPELR FOLPiWLFR SDUWH GHO KiE-
LWDW GH ODV HVSHFLHV GHVDSDUHFH SUiFWLFDPHQWH WRGDV ODV
HVSHFLHVSRGUtDQYHUGLVPLQXLGDVXGLVWULEXFLyQHQFRPSDUDFLyQ FRQ ORV QLYHOHV GH UHIHUHQFLD 8QD H[FHSFLyQ
HVODHVSHFLHPHGLWHUUiQHDPinus halepensisTXHSRGUtD
YHUVHEHQHÀFLDGDSRUHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR\DXPHQWDUVX
GLVWULEXFLyQLQFOXVRVLXQDSDUWHGHVXKiELWDWDFWXDOHV
GHVWUXLGR(VLPSRUWDQWHGHVWDFDUTXHORVDXWRUHVQRHQFRQWUDURQHIHFWRVVLQpUJLFRVHQWUHHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR\
ODSpUGLGDGHKiELWDWSDUDODHVFDODGHWLHPSRDQDOL]DGD
DxRV(VGHFLUTXHFXDQGRDPERVSURFHVRVRFXUUHQ
DOPLVPRWLHPSRHOHIHFWRQRHVPD\RUTXHODVXPDGH
ORVGRVHIHFWRVSRUVHSDUDGR\TXHHVWRVSRGUtDQPDQLIHVWDUVHFRQSRVWHULRULGDG/RVGLVWLQWRVSDWURQHVHVSDFLDOHV
GHGHVWUXFFLyQGHKiELWDWSHUPLWLHURQHVWXGLDUVLGLVWLQWRV
QLYHOHVGHIUDJPHQWDFLyQDIHFWDQGHPDQHUDGLIHUHQWHD
ODGLVWULEXFLyQGHHVSHFLHVYHU0DWHULDO6XSOHPHQWDULR
6L XQ GHO KiELWDW IXHUD GHVWUXLGR ORV HIHFWRV PiV
QHJDWLYRV HQ OD GLVWULEXFLyQ GH HVSHFLHV VH REVHUYDURQ
Figura 7
Figura 7. 'LIHUHQFLDVHQHOQ~PHURGHSDUFHODVRFXSDGDVHQHODxRFRQ\VLQHVFHQDULRVGHFDPELRFOLPiWLFRSDUDODVHVSHFLHVDP. halepensis
EP. pineaFP. pinasterGP. nigraHP. sylvestrisIQ. ilexJQ. fagineaKQ. pyrenaicaLQ. petraeaMQ. robur7HQLHQGRHQFXHQWDVX
HVWDGRGHHTXLOLEULRDFWXDOVXFDSDFLGDGGLVSHUVLYD\GHDGDSWDFLyQDODVFRQGLFLRQHVFOLPiWLFDV
)XHQWH$GDSWDGRGH*DUFtD9DOGpVHWDO
426
FXDQGRHOKiELWDWHVGHVWUXLGRGHIRUPDDJUHJDGDHQHOHVSDFLR\HQP~OWLSOHVSXQWRVVLPXOWiQHDPHQWH3RUHOFRQWUDULRHOSDWUyQPHQRVLPSDFWDQWHSDUDODPD\RUtDGHODV
HVSHFLHVVHUtDXQDGHVWUXFFLyQDJUHJDGDHQHOHVSDFLRSHUR
TXHRFXUUH~QLFDPHQWHHQXQOXJDUGHOWHUULWRULR6HREVHUYDURQQLYHOHVLQWHUPHGLRVGHUHGXFFLyQHQODGLVWULEXFLyQGHHVSHFLHVVLODSpUGLGDGHKiELWDWRFXUUHDOD]DU\VL
RFXUUHSULQFLSDOPHQWHHQODV]RQDVFODVLÀFDGDVFRPRPX\
LPSDFWDGDVSRUODDFFLyQGHOVHUKXPDQR:&6
3RU~OWLPRHQ*DUFtD9DOGpVHWDOWDPELpQVHHVWXGLyVLODFUHDFLyQGHQXHYDV]RQDVGHKiELWDW
IDYRUDEOHPHGLDQWHSHMUHVWDXUDFLyQGH]RQDVDJUtFRODV
SRGUtDD\XGDUDFRPSHQVDUORVHIHFWRVQHJDWLYRVGHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR3DUDODPD\RUtDGHODVHVSHFLHVODFUHDFLyQ
GH QXHYDV ]RQDV GH KiELWDW IDYRUDEOH FRPSHQVDUtD GH
PDQHUDSDUFLDOODUHGXFFLyQHQODGLVWULEXFLyQIXWXUDGH
ODVHVSHFLHVGHELGRDOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR1RREVWDQWHSDUD
FRPSHQVDUFRPSOHWDPHQWHHOLPSDFWRQHJDWLYRGHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFRVHUtDQHFHVDULRFUHDUXQDH[WHQVLyQGHQXHYR
KiELWDWFRPSDUDEOHDODWRWDOLGDGGHORVERVTXHVDFWXDOHV
LHGXSOLFDUHOiUHDRFXSDGDSRUORVERVTXHV
Recomendaciones para la adaptación
/DV HVSHFLHV DUEyUHDV TXH SUHVHQWDQ HO OtPLWH
VXUGHVXGLVWULEXFLyQHQODSHQtQVXODLEpULFDSHMPinus
sylvestrisSRGUtDQYHUIXHUWHPHQWHDOWHUDGDVXGHPRJUDItD
\ UHGXFLGD VX GLVWULEXFLyQ EDMR HVFHQDULRV GH FDPELR
FOLPiWLFR\SRUORWDQWRHVWDVHVSHFLHVGHEHUtDQFRQVWLWXLU
XQD SULRULGDG SDUD OD JHVWLyQ 3RU RWUR ODGR DOJXQDV
HVSHFLHVPHGLWHUUiQHDVPiVDGDSWDGDVDODVFRQGLFLRQHV
FOLPiWLFDVUHLQDQWHVHQHOIXWXURSRGUtDQVXIULUFDPELRV
PiV VXWLOHV EDMR HVFHQDULRV GH FDPELR FOLPiWLFR 6LQ
Figura 8A
Figura 8A. 1~PHURGHSDUFHODVRFXSDGDVFDGDNPHQSL[HOHVGHðNPHQHODxRDVXPLHQGRTXHWDQWRHOFOLPDFRPRHOKiELWDWVH
PDQWLHQHQHVWDEOHVDAcer campestreEAlnus glutinosaFBetulaVSSGCorylus avellanaHFraxinus angustifoliaIJuniperus communisJ
Juniperus phoeniceaKJuniperus thuriferaLPinus halepensisMPinus nigraNPinus pinasterOPinus pineaPPinus sylvestrisQPrunus
VSSRQuercus canariensisSQuercus fagineaTQuercus ilexUQuercus petraeaVQuercus pyrenaicaWQuercus roburXQuercus suber
YSalixVSS\ZTiliaVSS
427
HPEDUJR FXHVWLRQHV FRPR OD SODVWLFLGDG IHQRWtSLFD OD
DGDSWDFLyQ ORFDO \ HO JUDGR GH HTXLOLEULR FRQ HO FOLPD
SRGUtDQ MXJDU XQ SDSHO FODYH HQ OD GLVWULEXFLyQ IXWXUD
GHODVHVSHFLHV3RUWDQWRGHEHVHUSULRULWDULRFRQVLGHUDU
DVSHFWRV UHODWLYRV D OD FDSDFLGDG GH DGDSWDFLyQ GH ODV
HVSHFLHV SRU OR TXH VHUtD QHFHVDULR PHMRUDU QXHVWUR
FRQRFLPLHQWR VREUH ORV SURFHVRV \ PHFDQLVPRV TXH OD
GHWHUPLQDQ SHM PHGLDQWH HQVD\RV GH SURFHGHQFLD
$GHPiV OD DSOLFDFLyQ GH PHGLGDV GH DGDSWDFLyQ DO
FDPELR FOLPiWLFR R D OD GHVWUXFFLyQ GH KiELWDW GHEHUtD
FRQVLGHUDUDVSHFWRVFRPRODGLVSHUVLyQGHODVHVSHFLHVD
WUDYpVGHODV]RQDVGHKiELWDWIDYRUDEOH\ODFUHDFLyQGH
FRUUHGRUHVHFROyJLFRVTXHD\XGHQDUHGXFLUORVHIHFWRV
QHJDWLYRV GHO FDPELR JOREDO VREUH OD GLVWULEXFLyQ GH
HVSHFLHVDUEyUHDVGHODSHQtQVXODLEpULFD(VWDVPHGLGDV
DJUDQHVFDODGHEHQVHUFRPSOHPHQWDGDVFRQDFWXDFLRQHV
DHVFDODGHPRQWH\GHURGDOHVSHFLDOPHQWHHQDTXHOODV
VLWXDFLRQHV HQ ODV TXH ORV FRVWHV GH OD LQDFFLyQ SXHGDQ
VHUPX\HOHYDGRVOHJDGRVKLVWyULFRVFRPRPRQWHVEDMRV
Figura 8B
)XHQWH$GDSWDGRGH*DUFtD9DOGpVHWDO
428
UHSREODFLRQHV VLQ WUDWDPLHQWRV SRVWHULRUHV PDVDV P\
GHQVDV FRQ DOWR ULHVJR GH LQFHQGLR HWF /D RUGHQDFLyQ
IRUHVWDO \ OD VHOYLFXOWXUD FRQ FULWHULRV UHQRYDGRV GH
DGDSWDFLyQ \ FRQVHUYDFLyQ DGHPiV GH SURGXFFLyQ HV
ODPHMRU JDUDQWtD GHHVWDELOLGDG GHODVPDVDVIRUHVWDOHV
IUHQWHDOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR
Material suplementario
(Q HVWD FRQWULEXFLyQ SUHVHQWDPRV UHVXOWDGRV
GH ORV WUDEDMRV GHVDUUROODGRV HQ HO *UXSR GH (FRORJtD
)RUHVWDO\5HVWDXUDFLyQGHOD8$+HQFRODERUDFLyQFRQ
GLIHUHQWHVLQVWLWXFLRQHVYHU7DEODD%HQLWR*DU]yQ
HWDOE%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDOF%HQLWR
*DU]yQHWDOG*DUFtD9DOGpVHWDO\H
*DUFtD9DOGpVHWDO
(Q%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDOVHSDUDPHWUL]DURQ
0'( WUDGLFLRQDOHV LH SDUDPHWUL]DGR FRQ SUHVHQFLD
DXVHQFLDSDUDHVSHFLHVIRUHVWDOHVFRQSUHVHQFLDHQOD
SHQtQVXOD,EpULFDXVDQGRLQIRUPDFLyQGLVSRQLEOHDNP
GHO0DSD)RUHVWDO(VSDxRO5XL]GHOD7RUUH\GHO
0DSD)RUHVWDOGH3RUWXJDO8VDQGRHODOJRULWPRrandom
forest%UHLPDQVHXVDURQWUHVVXEFRQMXQWRVXQR
SDUDODFDOLEUDFLyQGHOPRGHORXQVHJXQGRSDUDHQWUHQDU
HOPRGHOR\XQWHUFHURSDUDYDOLGDULQGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWH
ORV UHVXOWDGRV 6H XVDURQ YDULDEOHV FOLPiWLFDV \ GRV
YDULDEOHV WRSRJUiÀFDV SDUD SDUDPHWUL]DU HO PRGHOR
3DUDODVFRQGLFLRQHVDFWXDOHVODVYDULDEOHVFOLPiWLFDVVH
LQWHUSRODURQDSDUWLUGH6iQFKH]3DORPDUHVHWDO
TXH FXEUH XQ SHULRGR GHVGH D FRQ HVWDFLRQHV 3DUD ODV FRQGLFLRQHV IXWXUDV VH DGDSWDURQ
ORVHVFHQDULRVFOLPiWLFRV$$%\%+DG&0GHO
,3&&SDUDODSHQtQVXOD,EpULFD0F&DUWK\HWDO
(Q%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDOVHXVDURQ0'(
SDUDPHWUL]DGRV FRQ GDWRV GH SODVWLFLGDG \ DGDSWDFLyQ
ORFDOGHODVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHGRVHVSHFLHVPinus pinaster
\ P. sylvestris PHGLGDV HQ GRV VHULHV GH HQVD\RV GH
SURFHGHQFLDVWUDQVSODQWDGRVHQ\SXQWRVHQ(VSDxD
UHVSHFWLYDPHQWHSHM$OtDHWDO$OtDHWDO
6HUHDOL]DURQPRGHORVSDUDFDGDXQDGHODVSURFHGHQFLDV
\ XQ PRGHOR XWLOL]DQGR WRGDV ODV SURFHGHQFLDV MXQWDV
SDUDFDGDXQDGHODVHVSHFLHV(QFDGDVLWLRH[SHULPHQWDO
VH VHPEUDURQ VHPLOODV SURYHQLHQWHV GH GLVWLQWDV
SURFHGHQFLDVHQHOFDVRGHP. sylvestris\SDUDP.
pinaster $OtD HW DO PLGLHQGR SHULyGLFDPHQWH
VXSHUYLYHQFLD GH ORV iUEROHV PD\RUHV GH DxRV 6H
DJUXSDURQODVSURFHGHQFLDVFRQFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVFOLPiWLFDV
VLPLODUHVHQJUXSRVSDUDP. sylvestris3LULQHRV6LVWHPD
&HQWUDO6LVWHPD,EpULFR(VWH6LHUUD1HYDGD\SDUDP.
pinaster*DOLFLD0HVHWD6LVWHPD,EpULFR6LHUUD6HJXUD
\6LHUUD1HYDGDYHU)LJXUD6HUHDOL]DURQPRGHORVGH
Figura 9A
Figura 9A. 1~PHURGHSDUFHODVRFXSDGDVFDGDNPHQSL[HOHVGHðNPHQHODxREDMRXQSDUDXQHVFHQDULRFOLPiWLFRGHUHIHUHQFLDGHDOWD
FRQFHQWUDFLyQGH&2HVFHQDULR:5(:LJOH\HWDO\GHSpUGLGDGHKiELWDWDOD]DUDAcer campestreEAlnus glutinosaFBetula
VSSGCorylus avellanaHFraxinus angustifoliaIJuniperus communisJJuniperus phoeniceaKJuniperus thuriferaLPinus halepensisM
Pinus nigraNPinus pinasterOPinus pineaPPinus sylvestrisQPrunusVSSRQuercus canariensisSQuercus fagineaTQuercus ilex
UQuercus petraeaVQuercus pyrenaicaWQuercus roburXQuercus suberYSalixVSS\ZTiliaVSS
429
GLVWULEXFLyQGHHVSHFLHVLQWHJUDQGRGDWRVH[SHULPHQWDOHV
VXSHUYLYHQFLDSDUDODVHVSHFLHVPinus sylvestris\Pinus
pinasterXVDQGRYDULDEOHVFOLPiWLFDVSDUDHVFHQDULRVGH
FDPELRFOLPiWLFR$+DG&0SDUDHODxR\
HW DO \ UHDOL]DU HVWLPDFLRQHV EDMR HVFHQDULRV GH
FDPELR FOLPiWLFR WDPELpQ VH SDUDPHWUL]DURQ PRGHORV
XVDQGR VROR YDULDEOHV FOLPiWLFDV GHO HVFHQDULR $ GHO
PRGHOR GH FLUFXODFLyQ FOLPiWLFD +DG&0 XVDQGR HO
DOJRULWPRrandom forest%UHLPDQ
(Q %HQLWR*DU]yQ HW DO VH UHDOL]DURQ
PRGHORVGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHHVSHFLHVEDVDGRVHQPRGHORV
QR SDUDPpWULFRV GH FUHFLPLHQWR \ PRUWDOLGDG (VWRV
PRGHORV IXHURQ FDOLEUDGRV FRQ PHGLGDV UHSHWLGDV
GH GLiPHWUR D OD DOWXUD GH SHFKR SDUD iUEROHV
GLVWULEXLGRV HQ SDUFHODV (Q HVWH WUDEDMR VH
FRQVLGHUDQ HVSHFLHV DUEyUHDV GHO VHJXQGR \ WHUFHU
,QYHQWDULR )RUHVWDO 1DFLRQDO TXH WLHQH XQ SHULRGR
PHGLR GH PXHVWUHR PHGLR GH DxRV (Q ORV PRGHORV
GH FUHFLPLHQWR \ PRUWDOLGDG VH FRQVLGHUDURQ YDULDEOHV
FOLPiWLFDVLQWHUSRODGDVDSDUWLUGH6iQFKH]3DORPDUHVHW
DOWRSRJUiÀFDVREWHQLGDVGH675096KXWWOH
5DGDU 7RSRJUDSKLF 0LVVLRQ KWWSZZZMSOQDVDJRY
VUWP \ HVWUXFWXUDOHV REWHQLGDV D SDUWLU GHO ,QYHQWDULR
)RUHVWDOQDFLRQDO9LOODHVFXVD'tD]9LOODQXHYD
3DUDFRPSDUDUFRQORVUHVXOWDGRVGH%HQLWR*DU]yQ
*DUFtD9DOGpV HW DO /RV 6320
´Stochastic Patch Occupancy Modelsµ QRV SHUPLWHQ
PHGLU \ VLPXODU ORV SURFHVRV GH FRORQL]DFLyQ \
H[WLQFLyQ ORFDO GH GLVWLQWDV HVSHFLHV HQ IXQFLyQ GH ODV
FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH ORV GLVWLQWRV OXJDUHV GRQGH RFXUUHQ
HVWDV FRORQL]DFLRQHV \ H[WLQFLRQHV /DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV
XWLOL]DGDVHQHVWHWUDEDMRLQFOX\HQODHVWUXFWXUDHVSDFLDO
GH ODV HVSHFLHV LH GLVWDQFLD HQWUH SREODFLRQHV \ ODV
FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV DPELHQWDOHV HQ FDGD XQD GH ODV ]RQDV
GRQGHVHSURGXFHQHVWRVHYHQWRVGHPRJUiÀFRV'HVSXpV
GHVHUFDOLEUDGRVGLFKRVPRGHORVVHSXHGHQXWLOL]DUSDUD
VLPXODU OD GLQiPLFD PHWDSREODFLRQDO GH FDGD HVSHFLH D
OR ODUJR GHO WLHPSR (VWDV VLPXODFLRQHV LQFOX\HQ HQWUH
RWUDVYHQWDMDVODHVWRFDVWLFLGDGLQKHUHQWHDORVVLVWHPDV
ELROyJLFRV /RV GDWRV GH FRORQL]DFLRQHV \ H[WLQFLRQHV
ORFDOHVQHFHVDULRVSDUDFDOLEUDUHVWRVPRGHORVVHSXHGHQ
Figura 9B
)XHQWH$GDSWDGRGH*DUFtD9DOGpVHWDOHQSUHSDUDFLyQ
430
REWHQHUUHJLVWUDQGRODSUHVHQFLD\DXVHQFLDGHODVHVSHFLHV
HQ XQ Q~PHUR VXÀFLHQWH GH SXQWRV GHO WHUULWRULR \ HQ
DO PHQRV GRV PRPHQWRV HQ HO WLHPSR /RV LQYHQWDULRV
IRUHVWDOHVVLVWHPiWLFRVKDQGHPRVWUDGRVHUXQDIXHQWHGH
GDWRVPX\~WLOSDUDODFDOLEUDFLyQGHHVWRVPRGHORV(Q
*DUFtD9DOGpVHWDOVHXWLOL]yXQ6320FDOLEUDGR
FRQ GDWRV GHO VHJXQGR 9LOODHVFXVD 'tD] \
WHUFHU 9LOODQXHYD LQYHQWDULR IRUHVWDO QDFLRQDO
SDUD VLPXODU ODV GLVWULEXFLRQHV IXWXUDV GH ODV HVSHFLHV
PiV FRPXQHV GH iUEROHV HQ OD (VSDxD SHQLQVXODU /RV
GDWRVFOLPiWLFRVVHREWXYLHURQGHOHQVDPEODMHGHYDULRV
0RGHORV GH &LUFXODFLyQ *HQHUDO YHU )RUGKDP HW DO
SDUD XQHVFHQDULRFOLPiWLFRGH UHIHUHQFLDGH DOWD
FRQFHQWUDFLyQ GH &2 HVFHQDULR :5( :LJOH\
HW DO $O PLVPR WLHPSR HVWDV VLPXODFLRQHV VH
FRPSDUDURQFRQRWUDVVLPXODFLRQHVHQODVTXHHOFOLPDVH
PDQWXYR FRQVWDQWH HQ ORV YDORUHV DFWXDOHV SDUD VLPXODU
XQHVFHQDULRGHFOLPDHVWDEOHTXHVLUYLHUDGHUHIHUHQFLD
/RV DQiOLVLV VH UHDOL]DURQ D XQD UHVROXFLyQ GH NP
HQ WRGDV ODV ]RQDV DFWXDOPHQWH RFXSDGDV SRU ERVTXH
\ ORV UHVXOWDGRV VH XWLOL]DURQ SDUD FUHDU PDSDV GH ODV
GLVWULEXFLyQ IXWXUD GH FDGD HVSHFLH HQ FDGD XQR GH ORV
GRV HVFHQDULRV FOLPiWLFRV SRVLEOHV FDPELR FOLPiWLFR \
FOLPD HVWDEOH\ SDUD FUHDU JUiÀFRV GH OD HYROXFLyQ HQ
ORVQLYHOHVGHIUHFXHQFLDGHFDGDHVSHFLHVHQHOFRQMXQWR
GH ORV ERVTXHV SRUFHQWDMH GHO iUHD GH ORV ERVTXHV FRQ
SUHVHQFLD GH FDGD HVSHFLH GHVGH HO DxR KDVWD
ÀQDOHVGHVLJOR
(Q *DUFtD9DOGpV HW DO VH FDOLEUy XQ
6320SDUDODVHVSHFLHVGHiUEROHVPiVFRPXQHVHQ
OD (VSDxD SHQLQVXODU \ VH HVWXGLy HO HIHFWR FRPELQDGR
TXH HO FDPELR FOLPiWLFR \ OD SpUGLGD GH KiELWDW LH
GHVWUXFFLyQGHERVTXHSXHGHWHQHUHQVXVGLVWULEXFLRQHV
(QHVWHWUDEDMRVHHVWXGLDURQFXDWURSDWURQHVHVSDFLDOHV
GH GHVWUXFFLyQ GH KiELWDW SDUD VLPXODU GLVWLQWRV QLYHOHV
GH IUDJPHQWDFLyQ GHVWUXFFLyQ DO D]DU GHVWUXFFLyQ
HVSDFLDOPHQWH DJUHJDGD HQ WRUQR D XQ ~QLFR SXQWR
GHVWUXFFLyQ HVSDFLDOPHQWH DJUHJDGD HQ WRUQR D SXQWRVGLVWLQWRVHOWHUULWRULR\GHVWUXFFLyQHVSDFLDOPHQWH
VHVJDGD KDFLD ]RQDV TXH HQ OD DFWXDOLGDG WLHQH XQ DOWR
LPSDFWRKXPDQRLHDOWRÌQGLFHGH,QÁXHQFLD+XPDQD
:&63DUDFDGDSDWUyQGHGHVWUXFFLyQGHOKiELWDW
VHVLPXODURQHVFHQDULRVGHSpUGLGDGHOKiELWDWGHO
\ GHO iUHD DFWXDO 8Q SURFHGLPLHQWR
SDUHFLGRVHXWLOL]ySDUDVLPXODUODFUHDFLyQRUHVWDXUDFLyQ
GHQXHYDV]RQDVGHKiELWDWFRPRPHGLGDSDUDFRQWUDUUHVWDU
ORVHIHFWRVQHJDWLYRVGHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR
Agradecimientos
$JUDGHFHPRV DO 0LQLVWHULR GH $JULFXOWXUD
$OLPHQWDFLyQ \ 0HGLR $PELHQWH 0$*5$0$ HO
DFFHVR D LQIRUPDFLyQ GHO VHJXQGR \ WHUFHU ,QYHQWDULR
)RUHVWDO (VWDV LQYHVWLJDFLRQHV VRQ HO UHVXOWDGR
GH GLIHUHQWHV SUR\HFWRV GH LQYHVWLJDFLyQ 0(&
,17(5%26&*/& 0&, ,1,$
680& \ &$05(0(',1$/
6$0%
5HIHUHQFLDVELEOLRJUiÀFDV
$OtD 5 *DUFtD GHO %DUULR -0 ,JOHVLDV 6 0DQFKD -$
GH0LJXHO-1LFROiV-/3pUH]0DUWtQ)6iQFKH]
GH 5RQ ' Regiones de procedencia de
especies forestales en España0LQLVWHULRGH0HGLR
$PELHQWH0HGLR5XUDO\0DULQR0DGULG
$OtD 5 0RUR6HUUDQR - 1RWLYRO ( *HQHWLF
YDULDELOLW\ RI 6FRWV SLQH Pinus sylvestris
SURYHQDQFHV LQ 6SDLQ *URZWK WUDLWV DQG VXUYLYDO
Silva Fennica
$OLD50RUR-'HQLV-%3HUIRUPDQFHRIPinus
pinasterSURYHQDQFHVLQ6SDLQLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKH
JHQRW\SH E\ HQYLURQPHQW LQWHUDFWLRQ Canadian
Journal of Forest Research
$QGHUVRQ -7 :LOOLV -+ 0LWFKHOO2OGV 7 (YROXWLRQDU\ JHQHWLFV RI SODQW DGDSWDWLRQ Trends
in Genetics
$UDXMR 0% 1HZ 0 (QVHPEOH IRUHFDVWLQJ
RI VSHFLHV GLVWULEXWLRQV Trends in Ecology &
Evolution
%HQLWR*DU]yQ 0 $OtD 5 5REVRQ 70 =DYDOD 0$
,QWUDVSHFLÀF YDULDELOLW\ DQG SODVWLFLW\
LQÁXHQFHSRWHQWLDOWUHHVSHFLHVGLVWULEXWLRQVXQGHU
FOLPDWHFKDQJHGlobal Ecology and Biogeography
%HQLWR*DU]yQ0GH'LRV562OOHUR+6(IIHFWV
RIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRI,EHULDQWUHH
VSHFLHVApplied Vegetation Science
%HQLWR*DU]yQ 0 5XL]%HQLWR 3 =DYDOD 0$ ,QWHUVSHFLÀF GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WUHH JURZWK DQG
PRUWDOLW\UHVSRQVHVWRFOLPDWHGHWHUPLQHSRWHQWLDO
VSHFLHVGLVWULEXWLRQOLPLWVLQ,EHULDQIRUHVWVGlobal
Ecology and Biogeography
%UHLPDQ / 5DQGRP IRUHVWV Machine Learning
&DUQLFHU - &ROO 0 1LQ\HUROD 0 3RQV ; 6iQFKH] *
3HxXHODV - :LGHVSUHDG FURZQ FRQGLWLRQ
GHFOLQH IRRG ZHE GLVUXSWLRQ DQG DPSOLÀHG WUHH
PRUWDOLW\ ZLWK LQFUHDVHG FOLPDWH FKDQJHW\SH
GURXJKW Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences
&DVVLQL 0+ Distribution ecology: From
individual habitat use to species biogeographical
range6SULQJHU8.
&KULVWHQVHQ-++HZLWVRQ%%XVXLRF$&KHQ$*DR
;+HOG,-RQHV5.ROOL5..ZRQ:7/DSULVH
5 0DJDxD 5XHGD 9 0HDUQV / 0HQpQGH] &*
5lLVlQHQ - 5LQNH $ 6DUU $ :KHWWRQ 3 5HJLRQDOFOLPDWHSURMHFWLRQV(Q6RORPRQ64LQ
' 0DQQLQJ 0 &KHQ = 0DUTXLV 0$YHU\W .%
7LJQRU 0 0LOOHU +/ HGLWRUHV Climate change
2007: The physical science bases &DPEULGJH
8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH 1XHYD <RUN SS
'DZVRQ 73 -DFNVRQ 67 +RXVH -, 3UHQWLFH ,& 0DFH
*0 %H\RQG SUHGLFWLRQV ELRGLYHUVLW\
FRQVHUYDWLRQ LQ D FKDQJLQJ FOLPDWH Science
431
'LHW]H 0& 0RRUFURIW 35 7UHH PRUWDOLW\ LQ WKH
(DVWHUQ DQG &HQWUDO 8QLWHG 6WDWHV SDWWHUQV DQG
GULYHUVGlobal Change Biology (OLWK-/HDWKZLFN-56SHFLHVGLVWULEXWLRQPRGHOV
HFRORJLFDOH[SODQDWLRQDQGSUHGLFWLRQDFURVVVSDFH
DQG WLPH Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution,
and Systematics
0RQWR\D ' 5RGUtJXH] 0$ =DYDOD 0$ +DZNLQV
%$ &RQWHPSRUDU\ ULFKQHVV RI KRODUFWLF
WUHHV DQG WKH KLVWRULFDO SDWWHUQ RI JODFLDO UHWUHDW
Ecography
)RUGKDP'$:LJOH\70/:DWWV0-%URRN%:
6WUHQJWKHQLQJIRUHFDVWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHLPSDFWV
ZLWK PXOWLPRGHO HQVHPEOH DYHUDJHG SURMHFWLRQV
XVLQJ0$*,&&6&(1*(1Ecography
26( Biodiversidad en España: Base para la
sostenibilidad ante el cambio global0XQGLSUHQVD
(VSDxD
*DUFtD9DOGpV 5 6YHQQLQJ -& =DYDOD 0$ 3XUYHV
':$UD~MR0%(YDOXDWLQJWKHFRPELQHG
HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWH DQG ODQGXVH FKDQJH RQ WUHH
VSHFLHV GLVWULEXWLRQV Journal of Applied Ecology
²
3XUYHV':=DYDOD0$2JOH.3ULHWR)%HQD\DV-05
(QYLURQPHQWDOKHWHURJHQHLW\ELUGPHGLDWHG
GLUHFWHG GLVSHUVDO DQG RDN ZRRGODQG G\QDPLFV
LQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ 6SDLQ Ecological Monographs
*DUFtD9DOGpV 5 =DYDOD 0$$UD~MR 0% 3XUYHV ':
&KDVLQJDPRYLQJWDUJHWSURMHFWLQJFOLPDWH
FKDQJHLQGXFHG FKDQJHV LQ QRQHTXLOLEULDO WUHH
VSHFLHVGLVWULEXWLRQVJournal of Ecology 5XL]%HQLWR 3 +HUUHUR $ =DYDOD 0$ D
9XOQHUDELOLGDG GH ORV ERVTXHV ,EpULFRV IUHQWH DO
FDPELR FOLPiWLFR HYDOXDFLyQ PHGLDQWH PRGHORV
Ecosistemas
*DUODQG 7 .HOO\ 6$ 3KHQRW\SLF SODVWLFLW\ DQG
H[SHULPHQWDO HYROXWLRQ Journal of Experimental
Biology
*yPH]$SDULFLR / *DUFtD9DOGpV 5 5XL]%HQLWR 3
=DYDOD 0$ 'LVHQWDQJOLQJ WKH UHODWLYH
LPSRUWDQFH RI FOLPDWH VL]H DQG FRPSHWLWLRQ RQ
WUHH JURZWK LQ ,EHULDQ IRUHVWV LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU
PDQDJHPHQWXQGHUJOREDOFKDQJHGlobal Change
Biology +DPSH$3HWLW5-&RQVHUYLQJELRGLYHUVLW\XQGHU
FOLPDWH FKDQJH WKH UHDU HGJH PDWWHUV Ecology
Letters
-XPS$60iW\iV&3HxXHODV-7KHDOWLWXGHIRU
ODWLWXGHGLVSDULW\LQWKHUDQJHUHWUDFWLRQVRIZRRG\
VSHFLHVTrends in Ecology & Evolution
,3&& Climate change 2007: Synthesis report
&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV&DPEULGJH
.HHQDQ70DULD6HUUD-/ORUHW)1LQ\HUROD06DEDWp
6 3UHGLFWLQJ WKH IXWXUH RI IRUHVWV LQ WKH
0HGLWHUUDQHDQ XQGHU FOLPDWH FKDQJH ZLWK QLFKH
DQG SURFHVVEDVHG PRGHOV &2 PDWWHUV Global
Change Biology
/LQGQHU 0 0DURVFKHN 0 1HWKHUHU 6 .UHPHU $
%DUEDWL $ *DUFLD*RQ]DOR - 6HLGO 5 'HO]RQ 6
&RURQD 3 .ROVWURP 0 /H[HU 0- 0DUFKHWWL 0
&OLPDWHFKDQJHLPSDFWVDGDSWLYHFDSDFLW\
DQG YXOQHUDELOLW\ RI (XURSHDQ IRUHVW HFRV\VWHPV
Forest Ecology and Management
/LQHV(5&RRPHV'$3XUYHV':,QÁXHQFHVRI
IRUHVW VWUXFWXUH FOLPDWH DQG VSHFLHV FRPSRVLWLRQ
RQWUHHPRUWDOLW\DFURVVWKH(DVWHUQ86Plos One
H
0DUWtQH]9LODOWD - /ySH] %& $GHOO 1 %DGLHOOD /
1LQ\HUROD 0 7ZHQWLHWK FHQWXU\ LQFUHDVH
RI 6FRWV SLQH UDGLDO JURZWK LQ 1( 6SDLQ VKRZV
VWURQJFOLPDWHLQWHUDFWLRQVGlobal Change Biology
0F&DUWK\ -- &DQ]LDQL 2) /HDU\ 1$ 'RNNHQ '-
:KLWH.6Climate Change 2001: Impacts,
432
adaptation & vulnerability Contribution of
Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
3UHVV&8HGLWRU8.
5XL]%HQLWR 3 /LQHV (5 *yPH]$SDULFLR / =DYDOD
0$&RRPHV'$E3DWWHUQVDQGGULYHUVRI
WUHHPRUWDOLW\LQ,EHULDQIRUHVWVFOLPDWLFHIIHFWVDUH
PRGLÀHGE\FRPSHWLWLRQPlos OneH
5XL]GHOD7RUUH-Mapa Forestal de España escala
1:200.000 ,&21$ 0LQLVWHULR GH $JULFXOWXUD
3HVFD\$OLPHQWDFLyQ0DGULG
6iQFKH] 3DORPDUHV 2 6iQFKH] 6HUUDQR ) &DUUHWHUR 3
Modelos y Cartografía de estimaciones
climáticas termopluviométricas para España
peninsular,1,$0LQLVWHULRGH$JULFXOWXUD3HVFD
\$OLPHQWDFLyQ0DGULG
6FKU|WHU'&UDPHU:/HHPDQV53UHQWLFH,&$UDXMR
0%$UQHOO1:%RQGHDX$ %XJPDQQ+ &DUWHU
75*UDFLD&$GHOD9HJD/HLQHUW$&(UKDUG0
(ZHUW)*OHQGLQLQJ0+RXVH-,.DQNDDQSDD6
.OHLQ 5-7 /DYRUHO 6 /LQGQHU 0 0HW]JHU 0-
0H\HU - 0LWFKHOO 7' 5HJLQVWHU , 5RXQVHYHOO
0 6DEDWH 6 6LWFK 6 6PLWK % 6PLWK - 6PLWK 3
6\NHV077KRQLFNH.7KXLOOHU:7XFN*=DHKOH
6 =LHUO % (FRV\VWHP VHUYLFH VXSSO\ DQG
YXOQHUDELOLW\ WR JOREDO FKDQJH LQ (XURSH Science
9LOODHVFXVD 5 'tD] 5 Segundo Inventario
Forestal Nacional (1986-1996) 0LQLVWHULR GH
0HGLR$PELHQWH0DGULG
9LOODQXHYD-$Tercer Inventario Forestal Nacional
(1997-2007). &RPXQLGDGGH0DGULG0LQLVWHULRGH
0HGLR$PELHQWH0DGULG
:&6 *OREDO +XPDQ ,QÁXHQFH ,QGH[ +,,
Dataset (Geographic) :LOGOLIH &RQVHUYDWLRQ
6RFLHW\DQG&HQWHUIRU,QWHUQDWLRQDO(DUWK6FLHQFH
,QIRUPDWLRQ1HWZRUN&ROXPELD8QLYHUVLW\1$6$
6RFLRHFRQRPLF 'DWD DQG $SSOLFDWLRQV &HQWHU
6('$& (VWDGRV 8QLGRV 'LVSRQLEOH HQ KWWS
VHGDFFLHVLQFROXPELDHGXGDWDVHWZLOGDUHDVY
KXPDQLQÁXHQFHLQGH[JHRJUDSKLF ÔOWLPR DFFHVR
GH'LFLHPEUHGH
:LJOH\70/5LFKHOV5(GPRQGV-$(FRQRPLF
DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO FKRLFHV LQ WKH VWDELOL]DWLRQ RI
DWPRVSKHULF &2 FRQFHQWUDWLRQV Nature