13/04/2016 Studying the evolution over the next few years of the

13/04/2016
Studying the evolution over the next few years of the meningococcal genogroups in Spain
using a competition Lotka–Volterra model
Raquel Abad1, Luis Acedo2, Javier Díez3, José A. Moraño2,
Julio Vázquez1, Rafael J. Villanueva2
1
Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Majadahonda, Madrid, Spain
Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar, Universitat Politècnica de Valéncia, Valencia, Spain
3
Centro Superior de Investigación en Salud Pública - Fundación para el Fomento de la Investigación
Sanitaria y Biomédica de Comunidad Valencia (CSISP-FISABIO), Valencia, Spain
2
Abstract
Some years ago, in Chile, there was an outbreak of the meningococcal serogroup W that produced a
strong impact in the public health due to its lethality.
The genogroups of meningoccocal are in competition in the ecosystem with humans. Changes in
vaccination strategies, prophylactic measures or usual habits, may change the distribution of the
genogroups in the ecosystem.
Nowadays, Public Health departments are aware about possible outbreaks of new genogroups,
because the population is not protected against them and, as in Chile, the consequences may be
catastrophic.
Our goal is to propose a Lokta–Volterra competition model to describe the evolution of the
meningococcal genogroups in Spain. Using data from the distribution of the genogroups in Spain in
2011 and 2012, we find the model parameters in such a way the model fits as much as possible to
the data. Once the model has been fitted, we will be able to predict the evolution of the genogroups
over the next few years.
A thorough analysis of the prediction will be performed because small variations in the growth of
serogroups may lead to possible outbreaks.