Canvi climàtic - Usted no se lo cree

El canvi climàtic
Aula Magna de la Facultat de Biologia,
Universitat de Barcelona.
16/04/2013
L’espai operatiu segur
Johan Rockström et al (2009) - A safe operating space for humanity - Nature 461:472-475
doi:10.1038/461472a - Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University - 29 authors
Història de la ciència climàtica
Font: Skeptical Science - http://www.skepticalscience.com – Imatge: John Garrett
James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato (2011) - Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change - En:
Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects. A. Berger, F. Mesinger, and D. Šijački, Eds.
Springer (In press) - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf
Font: Skeptical Science - http://www.skepticalscience.com – Imatge: John Garrett
William R. L. Anderegg et al (2010) - Expert credibility in climate change - Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1003187107 - Department of Biology, Stanford University http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf+html - 4 authors
Papers 1991-2012
James Lawrence Powell - The State of Climate Science - Science Progress, 15/11/2012 - National Physical Science
Consortium - http://scienceprogress.org/2012/11/27479/
La cadena causal
Pertorbació – Resposta (1)
Realimentació
E (s)
Concentració
GHG
ε (s)
+
S (s)
G (s)
-
Temperatura
mitja
H (s)
S (s) = ε (s) x G (s)
ε (s) = G (s) / S (s)
ε (s) = E (s) - S (s) x H (s)
S (s) =
G( s)
1  G( s) H (s)
x
E (s)
Característiques dinàmiques
• Amplificació (si realimentació positiva) o
reducció (si realimentació negativa) de la
perturbació
• Resposta exponencial (no proporcional)
• Posible retard entre perturbació i resposta
(gairebé siempre)
• Posible multiplicitat d’estats d’equilibri
• Existència d’un llindar d’estabilidad
• ‘Vida’ pròpia si ha entrat en zona inestable
Pertorbació – Resposta (2)
Will Steffen et al (2011) - The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship - Ambio: A Journal of the
Human Environment 40:739-761 doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0185-x - ANU Climate Change, Institute at the Australian
National University (ANU) - - 10 authors
Resposta en temperatura
Font: IPCC, 2007
14
Font: Skeptical Science - http://www.skepticalscience.com
El CO2-òmetre
> 35 Ma; +73 m
Sense gel permanent
~ 35 Ma; +73 m; 45 ± 5 m
Gel permanent a l’Antàrtida
Preindustrial
Darrer màxim glacial
Richard Alley (2005) - Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes – Science 310:456-460 doi:10.1126/science.1114613 Department of Geosciences and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University
Escala de temps dels llaços
PALAEOSENS Project Members - Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity - Nature 491:683–691 doi:10.1038/nature11574 http://www.purdue.edu/discoverypark/climate/assets/pdfs/Making%20sense%20of%20palaeoclimate%20sensitivity.pdf
Sensibilitat climàtica
Excés de
curtosi
Gerard H. Roe and Marcia B. Baker (2007) - Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable? - Science 318:629632 doi:10.1126/science.1144735 - Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington
18
Salvador Pueyo, 2012
Salvador Pueyo (2012) - Solution to the paradox of climate sensitivity - Climatic Change doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0328-x Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) - http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-011-0328-x
Projeccions S=1,5-2.0 °C
Michael E. Schlesinger et al (2012) - A Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate - Journal of Environmental
Protection 3:455-461 doi: 10.4236/jep.2012.36055 - Published online: 01/06/2012 - Climate Research Group,
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperDownload.aspx?paperID=20038 - 3 authors
Fenòmens extrems
Quirin Schiermeier (2011) - Climate and weather: Extreme measures - Nature 477:148-149 doi:10.1038/477148a http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110907/full/477148a.html
Esdeveniments catastròfics
naturals
Font: Munich Re, 2012
23
Volum de gel a l’Àrtic
Font: Skeptical Science - http://www.skepticalscience.com
Son segurs + 2˚C?
Joel B. Smith et al (2009) – Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘reasons for concern’ - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS
106:4133–4137 doi:10.1073/pnas.0812355106 – 15 autores
Probabilitats ΔT a 2100
Andrei Sokolov et al (2009) - Probabilistic forecast for 21st century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters Journal of Climate 22:5175–5204 doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1 - Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Anys 2060
“Si la retroalimentación con el ciclo del
carbono fuera más fuerte, cosa que
parece menos probable pero todavía
creíble, el calentamiento de 4 ºC podría
ser alcanzado en los primeros 2060, en
base a predicciones consistentes con el
‘margen probable’ del IPCC.” [énfasis
añadido]
Richard A. Betts et al (2011) – When could global warming reach 4°C? – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of
London A 369:67-84 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0292 – Published online: 29/11/2010 – Met Office Hadley Centre – 6 authors
27
Gaia Vince (2009) - How to survive the coming century - New Scientist, Marzo 2009 http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126971.700-how-to-survive-the-coming-century.html
Governments’ ambitions to
limit warming to 2°C appear
highly unrealistic ... We have
passed a critical threshold …
Even to have a reasonable
prospect of getting to a 4°C
scenario would imply nearly
quadrupling the current rate
of decarbonisation."
Las sucesivas ediciones de este
informe han demostrado que el
objetivo climático de limitar el
calentamiento global a 2 °C se
hace más difícil y costoso de
conseguir cada año que pasa.
Even with the current mitigation
commitments and pledges fully
implemented, there is roughly a 20
percent likelihood of exceeding 4°C
by 2100. If they are not met, a
warming of 4°C could occur as early
as the 2060s.
Impactes a Europa
Bernhard Lehner et al (2005) - The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a modelbased analysis - Energy Policy 33:839–855 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2003.10.018
Katherine Richardson et al (2009) - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions - International Scientific Congress Climate
Change - Australian National University, ETH Zürich, National University of Singapore, Peking University, University of
California - Berkeley, University of Cambridge, University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford, The University of Tokyo,
Yale University - http://www.climatecongress.ku.dk - 12 authors
Richard Betts et al (2009) - 4°C global warming: regional patterns and timing - International Climate Conference: 4
Degrees and Beyond - Published online: 30/09/2009 - Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research, Met Office
La síndrome de Venus
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2009) - Terra Quasi-Incognita: Beyond the 2°C Line - International Climate
Conference: 4 Degrees and Beyond - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/ppt/1-1schellnhuber.pdf
35
Solució?
James Hansen et al (2011) – The Case for Young People and Nature: A Path to a Healthy, Natural, Prosperous Future – Columbia
University Earth Institute, New York –http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110505_CaseForYoungPeople.pdf - 15 autors
36
Solució?
Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows (2011) - Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 369:20-44 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0290 - Published online:
29/11/2010 - Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research + School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering + School
of Environmental Sciences and School of Development, University of East Anglia; Sustainable Consumption Institute, School
of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester
Gràcies.
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@FerranPVilar
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