Estados Unidos: Política monetaria

Estados Unidos: Política monetaria
Junio 23 de 2010
Comunicado de la Reserva Federal más dovish, refleja menor
inflación y estabilización en recuperación
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Comunicado de la Reserva Federal muestra un cambio de condiciones económicas más estables.
Los cambios más importantes se da en la descripción de condiciones financieras menos constructiva
para el crecimiento económico (mayormente por los sucesos fuera de Estados Unidos). Asimismo,
existe un cambio de leguaje en la última oración del primer párrafo en el cual se resalta que el
crecimiento será moderado en vez de resaltar que se llegará a un uso de capacidad instalada más
alta. Queda eliminada la frase que resaltaba el incremento de inicios de construcción. La primera
oración del primer párrafo suena menos optimista y sugiere una estabilización en la recuperación.
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Los pasajes principales de “tasas excepcionalmente bajas por un periodo de tiempo extenso” e
“inflación restringida por algún tiempo” quedan intactos. Se agrega una frase que refleja la caída en
los precios de la energía y en la inflación. El párrafo que habla de las medidas extraordinarias de
liquidez queda eliminado.
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El tono del comunicado es más dovish que lo visto en lo corrido del año. Sin embargo, era esperado
en parte dado que el segmento de condiciones económicas (el primer párrafo en este caso) es el que
menos sorpresas puede traer. Con este comunicado las expectativas de incremento de la tasa Fed
Funds deberían moverse desde marzo abril hacia junio por lo menos y probablemente hacia la
segunda mitad de 2011.
Abril 28
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that
economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve.
Growth in household spending has picked up recently but remains constrained by high
unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business
spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in
nonresidential structures is declining and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing
starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level. While bank lending continues to contract,
financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of
economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return
to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.
With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation
expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and
continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization,
subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low
levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee will continue to monitor
the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to
promote economic recovery and price stability.
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In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve has closed all but one
of the special liquidity facilities that it created to support markets during the crisis. The only
remaining such program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, is scheduled to close
on June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities; it closed on
March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C.
Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto;
Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against the policy action was
Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low
levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could
lead to a build-up of future imbalances and increase risks to longer run macroeconomic and
financial stability, while limiting the Committee’s flexibility to begin raising rates modestly.
June 23
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the
economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. Household
spending is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth,
lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen
significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and
employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level.
Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely
reflecting developments abroad. Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months.
Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in
a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a
time.
Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months, and
underlying inflation has trended lower. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost
pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some
time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and
continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization,
subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low
levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and
will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C.
Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto;
Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against the policy action was
Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low
levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could
INVESTIGACIONES ECONÓMICAS
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lead to a build-up of future imbalances and increase risks to longer-run macroeconomic and
financial stability, while limiting the Committee’s flexibility to begin raising rates modestly.
Este documento ha sido realizado por los analistas del área de Investigaciones Económicas de la División de Internacional y Tesorería de Banco
de Bogotá. La información contenida en el mismo está basada en fuentes consideradas confiables con respecto al comportamiento de la economía
y de los mercados financieros. Sin embargo, su precisión no está garantizada y no constituye propuesta o recomendación alguna por parte de
Banco de Bogotá para la negociación de sus productos y servicios. De igual forma, las opiniones expresadas no reflejan la opinión de Banco de
Bogotá, por lo cual la entidad no se hace responsable de interpretaciones o de distorsiones que del presente informe hagan terceras personas. El
uso de la información y cifras contenidas es exclusiva responsabilidad de cada usuario.
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