W H I T E PA P E R 2 0 2 2 The Future of Education in a 10G World Table of Contents 3 Introduction 4 Glossary of Terms 5 Education Scenarios 12 Why Does This Matter? 13 What Now? 14 Selected Sources 15 Methodology 16 About: NCTA – The Internet & Television Association and Future Today Institute The Future of Education in a 10G World 2 Introduction High-speed connectivity is on our doorstep, and will bring with it the evolution of every industry and consumer experience. Connectivity, beginning with telephones and moving into the internet age, has rapidly improved for decades. Today, our lives and livelihoods are shaped by how quickly we can connect with one another and exchange information. The 10G network—delivering speeds of 10 gigabits per second—will power the Fourth Industrial Revolution, enabling creators to develop life-changing innovations that consumers will be able to use every day. Every home, industry, and marketplace will be transformed in ways that are difficult to imagine today. NCTA (The Internet & Television Association) has partnered with the Future Today Institute to develop scenarios—data-driven, plausible versions of the future—that will help consumers, businesses, and the marketplace prepare for the coming transformation brought about by 10G. These scenarios focus on four critical industries: Health Care, Agriculture & Food, Entertainment, and Education. Each scenario contemplates the impacts of technologies that are highly dependent upon connectivity, such as synthetic media, virtual and augmented reality, wearables, and holograms. These scenarios are meant to help you, our reader, to rehearse the future. In doing so, individuals and organizations can begin to anticipate potential outcomes, and how they should prepare. This document will provide you with two scenarios that take place 10 years from now and describe the ways in which 10G has helped the industry to evolve. Following the scenarios, a number of potential opportunities and threats have been laid out, providing a view into the possible strategic impacts of these futures. Finally, a list of strategic questions at the end of the document provides an initial framework for beginning a strategic dialogue on this topic. We hope that these scenarios inspire and excite, as you begin to envision what our world will look like with the power of 10G connectivity. The Future of Education in a 10G World 3 Benefits of 10G in Education Speed Enables translation in-real-time 10G provides 10 gigabits per second speeds. This is ten times faster than today’s connection speeds. Security Keeps the data of our children safe Security threats can be identified and isolated immediately. Reliability Constant monitoring and technology that enables self-healing will ensure the uninterrupted stability of the network. Capacity The infrastructure will be able to manage an exponential number of devices compared to today. Allows uninterrupted classroom adventures in virtual reality Ensures entire student bodies to enjoy experiences in xr The Future of Education in a 10G World 4 Glossary of Terms 10G: The 10G platform is a combination of technologies that will deliver internet speeds 100 times faster than what most consumers currently experience. 10G also provides faster symmetrical speeds, lower latencies, enhanced reliability, and better security in a scalable manner. Augmented Reality: Augmented reality makes digital alterations or additions to the existing environment. This can happen through the integration of sound, visual elements, or other sensory stimuli that are often interactive. Hologram: We are defining a hologram in this context as a true three-dimensional image with 360-degree visual dimensionality and projected into thin air. It can be seen with the naked eye and is created from real-world images or computer-generated content. Metaverse: The metaverse is a persistent, immersive, virtual realm that can either be experienced in full immersion or as a digital overlay onto the physical world. Once realized, the metaverse will be heavily dependent upon a variety of technologies that are still evolving today, including augmented reality, virtual reality, spatial audio, and more. Synthetic Media: Synthetic media refers to algorithmically generated digital content, including audio, video, deepfakes, virtual characters and environments, and more. Synthetic media can be seen today as voice clones, realistic-looking videos of real people doing fake things, and even pieces of writing that never had a human author. Much of the artificial intelligence technology needed for synthetic media exists today, but growing sophistication of AI will lead to even more convincing content over the next decade. Virtual Reality: The use of digital technology and simulation that enables a person to interact with an immersive three-dimensional visual or other sensory environment. The Future of Education in a 10G World 5 SCENARIO #1 The Experiential Classroom In the year 2032, augmented and virtual realities send students to foreign lands, so they can witness historical events, engage with different cultures, and explore the limitless potential of their own creativity—all within the learning environment of their choice—such as the family home or in the classroom. Teachers are supported by digital support staff, whether that is a synthetic tutor on a screen or a friendly robot companion in a student’s home that caters to the child’s individual needs. Ubiquitous high-speed connectivity at low latency enables seamless interactions in these educational ecosystems and makes comprehensive education available for all. All of this is in contrast to the early 2020s, when COVID-19 forced education online—with mixed results. While some students benefited from learning at home because they could more easily avoid negative encounters, such as bullying or racism, others struggled with unstable family environments or lack of social interactions. One-on-one interaction between students and teachers was also limited as educators took on increased responsibilities and meetings had to be scheduled rather than occurring ad hoc in the classroom. When the pandemic reached its vaccine turning point, nearly all schools returned to a full-time, inperson model, to the relief of many. However, especially in rural areas, the teacher shortage—already severe before the pandemic—worsened. The long hours, low pay, and emotional pressures made the teaching profession an unattractive career choice. Schools in sparsely populated areas were forced to evaluate alternative approaches to education. The Future of Education in a 10G World 6 Meanwhile, the flexibility of a remote lifestyle had enticed parts of the U.S. population to relocate as their lives were no longer dependent on their commute. Some moved to the countryside to have the best of both worlds: a personal life in nature and a professional life in the city. These transplants brought additional tax revenue to their new communities, increasing the financial resources available to the local schools.1 The federal government, recognizing Virtual reality enabled completely immersive experiences in digital worlds, while augmented reality covered our reality with a digital layer that enriched our lives in different ways—through useful information, playful elements, or personalized engagements. Big technology companies soon lowered the price points of the hardware needed to access these worlds—VR glasses and smart glasses—to lock in as many people as possible to their ecosystems. that additional means were necessary to provide an education that enabled the U.S. to stay competitive in a world primarily driven by technology, made additional funds available for the educational sector. Funds came from the FCC’s E-Rate program2, in addition to a few other sources. The commission expanded its benefits to not only include paying for connectivity but also the devices required for digital applications, such as those needed to access digital realities. As much of life shifted at least partly into augmented and virtual reality, the commission argued that the future workforce needed to be proficient in extended reality (XR) because it would be a necessary skill for entering the workforce. With increased budgets at their disposal, schools were able to invest into means that aided the education of the youth. The accelerated development of the metaverse saw massive investments in digital environments.This was spurred by the big technology companies that saw increased revenue and data harvest opportunities from people spending extended periods of time in digital realities. 1 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/12/business/economy/small-town-livingstandard.html?searchResultPosition=5 2 https://www.fcc.gov/consumers/guides/universal-service-program-schools-andlibraries-e-rate 3 https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/school-enrollment. html#:~:text=K%2D12%20School%20Enrollment,20%25%20from%202000%20to%202009 While the metaverse’s potential to deeply enrich the educational experience and make access to learning independent of location was now obvious, past efforts to integrate XR technology into schools had been unsuccessful. However, this time around the initiative was galvanized by growing societal adoption of XR environments. This made the production of educational content for these realities an easy value-add for content providers that had a different business focus, such as entertainment. It was also a necessary and lucrative expansion of products for traditional educational textbook manufacturers. On the side of tech giants, providing schools with the necessary devices to access digital realities opened up the opportunity to acquire lifelong customers at an even earlier age. It also increased their addressable market size by over 50 million3 guaranteed users and gave them access to unfathomable amounts of data that could be monetized through new or improved products and services. The combination of accessible price points, higher financial liquidity of rural school districts due to increased federal and state support, and higher tax earnings enabled them to make the devices available for students at no cost. The Future of Education in a 10G World 7 Today, parents can decide if their children learn remotely or in person, based on what is most optimal for their family’s circumstances. For those who prefer to learn at home, a livestream of the classroom allows them to absorb the teachings and participate while their robot companion takes the role of a teacher’s aide and keeps them on task. Artificial intelligence enables the robot companion to adjust to the child’s preferred communication style and learning method so that understanding and application of the materials are maximized. Information about the child’s learning progress, such as penmanship or math proficiency, as well as behavioral patterns are recorded in real time, enabling the parents and the school to make sure the child is progressing and issues are addressed as they arise. Parents have complete control over the data that the robot companion collects and can edit or delete it at any time. A typical activity session begins with students putting on their VR headsets to practice their Spanish skills. They find themselves in a virtual neighborhood in Barcelona, Gaudi’s Sagrada Familia basilica peeking over the rooftops of houses in a busy street. Together with their classmates, they engage in a treasure hunt, collecting different clues from avatars they meet: a fish vendor at the farmers market, a child playing soccer on the sidewalk, a juggler trying to earn a few euro coins from fascinated tourists. These digital characters engage in conversation and correct and guide the youngster’s vocabulary along the way. Once back in the classroom, Spanish history comes to life on a 3D screen. Those children who are remote put on their smart glasses to access the livestream of the classroom. One of Spain’s most famous painters, 18th century artist Francisco Goya, arises from the screen. He’s in the middle of painting his latest masterpiece, a portrait of King Charles III, and the two of them chat about the latest happenings at court and the country, playfully educating their avid listeners about the political and cultural happenings of their time. Lastly, Goya turns toward the students, and challenges them to take up the brush and get to work themselves, before disappearing with a cheeky wink into thin air. The Future of Education in a 10G World 8 The students in the classroom now also put on their smart glasses, and a brush and a palette of bright colors appear by their side, a large blank canvas and easel in front of them. Within minutes, the first traces of unique masterpieces take shape. Spanish-speaking digital assistants stand beside the easel and encourage the young artists, playfully building the children’s vocabulary through conversations. Once time is up, these digital creations are emailed to family members of choice, as well as printed out to hang up on the wall or the refrigerator at home. For homework, the students turn on their screen of choice and connect with a synthetic tutor. Parents pick the personality, look, and feel of the artificially intelligent synthetic being at the start of each school year, and it learns over time to optimally respond to the child’s needs—whether in learning style or education level. These synths are connected, just like the robot companions, to the school’s educational system and accessible by the teacher’s aides, teachers, and parents. Progress and challenges are analyzed and communicated in daily reports that prompt caretakers and educators to dig deeper and react when necessary. This hybrid approach to learning, enabled by limitless connectivity with near-zero latency of 10G across the country, provides students the best of both worlds: emotional support, attention, and guidance from their teachers, and inspirational, personalized digital tools that inspire learning and let students learn wherever they prefer. These measures have increased the educational standard across the nation, setting up future generations to successfully address the challenges of the world. SCENARIO #2 Limitless Learning College, once a clearly defined phase for some people after completing high school and associated with “leaving the nest,” has transformed into something much more malleable. In 2032, higher education takes place anywhere, anytime, and is accessible for most. Students from all walks of life, different generations, different cultures, and different socioeconomic backgrounds take advantage of learning opportunities and connect with each other, redefining social structures. Associate, bachelor’s, and master’s degrees have been complemented by certificate-based educational modules corresponding to the students’ specific interests and needs. Real-time translations allow an international network of experts to pass on their knowledge to a national audience, spreading their expertise and accelerating solution-finding for the largest problems humanity is facing. In the mid-2020s, higher education had become a dream that fewer and fewer could afford to realize. Costs had risen to a point where only those attending the country’s top universities—whose names automatically opened doors to lucrative careers—were able to pay back their educational loans in a reasonable time span. College acceptance rates, on the other hand, had steadily decreased at quality schools, making it evermore competitive for the growing pool of graduating seniors to attend a reputable institution.1,2 Employers’ needs had also changed in multiple ways. For one, the digitization of work exponentially progressed. The number of jobs directly related to technology increased, and even positions not in the technology sector required a thorough knowledge of digital tools to execute. These developments necessitated a higher degree of education for almost everyone in the workforce. Employers were also asking for a broader course curriculum at schools that included teaching of work skills. Wary of Gen Z, for whom frequent job changes were commonplace, employers expected new hires to be ready to go, with no on-the-job training. 1 https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/04/09/a-majority-of-u-scolleges-admit-most-students-who-apply/ft_19-04-01_collegeadmissions_2/ 2 https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/04/09/a-majority-of-u-scolleges-admit-most-students-who-apply/ft_19-04-01_collegeadmissions_1/ The Future of Education in a 10G World 01 transformed, as people sought to build individualized study programs that bridged trade, vocational, and traditional university courses. In addition, the rapid evolution of technology made continuous learning throughout a career, without interrupting the work schedule, a must. Many big companies were working on upskilling initiatives to enable their existing workforce to transition through the evolving knowledge economy. These initiatives were expensive and difficult to scale, leaving smaller companies wanting since they couldn’t afford a custom offering. At the same time, there were not enough people in skilled blue-collar positions, including plumbers, masons, and electricians. Younger generations sought the recognition and higher salaries of white-collar professions while expecting these labor-intensive jobs to be executed by AI and robots in the near term. Older skilled workers had retired from the workforce, which created immediate scarcity and impacted the future of these trades. Available apprenticeships became a rarity. Societal expectations shifted as well. With life expectancy longer than ever, many people in their 40s, 50s, and 60s decided to change careers. Those who might have been the parents or grandparents of a traditional student showed new interest in upskilling or learning entirely new fields as a way to earn additional income. Later-learners took advantage of remote learning, which had gained momentum throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. They expected on-demand upskilling training to be accessible from anywhere. Educational institutions responded to the pressures and rethought their approach. Course curricula expanded, with schools going beyond credentialing traditional twoyear, four-year, and graduate degrees to offer certificates focused on specific topics. The on-campus experience continued to exist but was supplemented by fully remote access options. Vocational schools equally made their offerings available remotely. Education Ubiquitous connectivity with near-zero latency and fast speeds enabled the schools to opt for technological solutions such as the integration of synthetic media or translations in real time, which allowed students to have the same learning experience wherever they were. More students and ongoing learning needs resulted in new opportunities to unlock revenue and profit centers, while the costs of onboarding remote students eventually fell. Another incentive for schools to adjust was that new competitors had entered the educational field. Companies such as Spotify and Meta had begun to offer their own certificate-based programs that slowly gained recognition with employers, leading prospective students to venture away from traditional learning institutions. Today, looking into the lecture hall of a college or the classroom of a vocational school initially reveals an image not too different from a decade ago: students settling into their seats, pulling out their laptops, and putting on their headsets. The guest lecturer, a renowned expert in her field, is beginning to speak. However, upon closer inspection, not much resembles the learning experience from 10 years ago. The lecturer is delivering her talk in Korean, her native language, and everything she says is being recorded by a camera in front of her. Those students not fluent in Korean can enable a livestream of the lecture on their screen. Thanks to synthetic media, which allows for translations in real time and adjustments of the lip movements of the lecturer on the screen, she is seemingly holding the lecture in the language of the student’s choice. The Future of Education in a 10G World 11 Harnessing contextual awareness and natural language generation, the students’ intelligent conversational interface automatically listens for and displays helpful hints in realtime. It spells out acronyms, shows biographical details and photos, retrieves academic papers and case law, and anything else relevant to learning in the moment. That digital assistant also has access to their field of study, desired educational goals, search history, purchased books and materials needed for work, attended lectures, and whatever else a student would wish to share. Based on that data, the AI customizes the information appearing on the student’s screen for each lecture. Students attending remotely have access to the same tools. Support for students outside of the lectures themselves has expanded and is organized nationwide, completely independent of location. Synthetic media assistants have stepped in to support the teacher and her aides. These synths are accessible in two ways. Students can click on a button on their screens, and the synth is activated and gives personalized support, answers questions, or provides complementary information to the learning materials. They also coach weekly study groups: These small groups, made up of six to eight students, are curated from students all over the nation. During these sessions, the synth guides the group in discussions relating to the most recent lecture, challenges assumptions, and ensures that the gained knowledge is being applied in different contexts. The synth is able to react to the students in real time and make behavioral adjustments to stimulate their thinking and maximize their learning of the material. 3 https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/13/us-chamber-fund-trainingprograms-458412 These new learning structures enable students to make connections that span different generations, socioeconomic backgrounds, and locations. The breadth and depth of experiences that these new student bodies now share brings about a more holistic, empathetic mindset, and contribute to strong, respectful relations across the entire political spectrum. After the U.S. Chamber of Commerce asked lawmakers to fund rapid upskilling programs to connect people with jobs in new sectors, trade unions and universities alike lobbied for a different approach to education. Publicprivate partnerships exist to provide upskilling for free, or at affordable costs.3 Students enter the workforce with all the skills they need to not only succeed, but they are also able to address humanity’s most urgent problems swiftly, efficiently, and with the necessary resources. 10G connectivity, with its ability to transport large amounts of data with practically near-zero latency, provides the necessary infrastructure to use the technologies needed to make this kind of education available for all. Why Does This Matter? OPPORTUNITIES Products and services around re-creating the college experience—such as communal housing, cafeterias, or education-related social space—online as well as offline could represent new business opportunities. If wider parts of the population are accessing higher education remotely, it will have a significant impact on the experience of some of the most formative years in a person’s life. The desire for friendship, community, and the need for independence will stay the same, but new ways will have to be found for adolescents to mature into sovereign adults. The marketplace—including students—demands more flexibility in education, ranging from what is being offered (more variety in course offerings and certifications to assist in upskilling) to how (remote or in-person). New players might be able to offer know-how that has never been considered in more traditional settings, whether for blue-collar or white-collar professions. Another lucrative option could be providing specialized upskilling options for existing professionals. Technology can enrich and expand education for all of our youth, independent of socioeconomic background. This could be a significant antidote to a widening of the wealth gap and social unrest, and provide more opportunities for those demographics that have been disadvantaged in the past. The resulting increase in upward mobility could lead to expanded or new markets. T H R E AT S Educational institutions must constantly look for the inflection point of new developments, in order to effectively prepare today’s students to become the workforce that must solve tomorrow’s challenges. If schools don’t adjust their structures and processes to enable the necessary foresight and the flexibility to shift quickly, the U.S. could run the risk of losing global competitiveness. As the population relies more on technology for education and information, it is increasingly important to ensure that the information presented is based on fact. With the rise of synthetic media, fake news and fraudulent information will be more prevalent than ever, and AI tools need to be able to differentiate a good source from a harmful one. Human interaction, such as with a teacher, mentor, or classmate, is an indispensable part of education. It is crucial to view technology as a means to complement human interaction and enable educational professionals to spend more time with students, not as a replacement. The Future of Education in a 10G World 13 What Now? Strategic questions for stakeholders in education: 1 Could you turn existing expertise in your company into a valuable learning module or certified training course for nonemployees? 2 What new liabilities arise if your company offers learning materials in digital realities? 3 How would a shift of control over generated data from your company to educational institutions and parents impact your business model? 4 How can you provide customized options for students using your products and services, and therefore increase your market size? 5 What would additional data that digital education generates mean for the product offering of your company? 6 What nontraditional collaborators could help you bring new educational experiences to life? 7 A more flexible educational system needs new administrative processes. Can your company provide solutions that streamline services? 8 What experiential learning methods currently being tested could be improved through the use of new technology solutions? 9 Are there environmental concerns (CO2 usage, recycling, battery toxicity) that you need to keep in mind as you develop new products and services? 10 What is required of the space in which a person engages with your product, and can you create adjacent offerings to ensure safe usage? The Future of Education in a 10G World 14 Selected Sources Boyd, John. “Hologram-in-a-Box Can Teleport You Anywhere.” IEEE Spectrum, 30 October 2021, https://spectrum.ieee.org/hologram-booth. Chen, Huili, et al. HRI ‘20: Proceedings of the 2020 ACM/IEEE International Conference on Human-Robot Interaction March 2020 Pages 389–397. https://doi.org/10.1145/3319502.3374822. Chowdhury, Tahiya. “The Other Side of Black Screen: Rethinking Interaction in Synchronous Remote Learning for Collaborative Programming.” 11 November 2021, arXiv:2111.06013 [cs.CY]. Curran, Chris. “Art Illuminates the Beauty of Science—and Could Inspire the Next Generation of Scientists Young and Old.” The Conversation, 23 November 2021, https://theconversation.com/art-illuminates-thebeauty-of-science-and-could-inspire-the-next-generation-of-scientists-young-and-old-168925. Levit, Alexandra. Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Inspiration at Work. “The Future of Education.” Discussion. 13 January 2022, www.inspirationatwork.net. Milgram-Elcott, Talia. Founder, 100kin10. “The Future of Education.” Discussion. 13 January 2022, https://100kin10.org. Naffi, Nadiaet et al. “AI-powered Chatbots, Designed Ethically, Can Support High-quality University Teaching.” Phys.org, 3 January 2022, https://phys.org/news/2022-01-ai-powered-chatbots-ethically-highquality-university.html. Pengel, Norbert, et al. “TecCoBot: Technology-aided Support for Self-regulated Learning.” 23 November 2021, arXiv:2111.11881 [cs.CY]. Spence, Rhys. “The Unbundling of Professional Learning and Entrepreneurship Education.” TechCrunch, 30 November 2021, https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/30/the-unbundling-of-professional-learning-andentrepreneurship-education/. Whitman-Salkin, Sarah. Social Worker, Opportunities for a Better Tomorrow. “The Future of Education.” Discussion. 13 January 2022, https://obtjobs.org. The Future of Education in a 10G World 15 Methodology Scenarios are narrative snapshots describing possible futures. Scenarios are strategic tools designed to catalyze what-if conversations. They require teams to confront their cherished beliefs, develop shared visions, and sharpen their focus, and refine their expectations. Scenarios do not predict the future. They reduce uncertainty so that better decisions can be made in the present. Done well, scenarios inform what actions must be taken to shape the future. The Future Today Institute’s scenario modeling process relies on many rounds of research, analysis, and writing. The Future of Education in a 10G World 16 About About NCTA About Future Today Institute The Internet & Television Association represents network innovators and content creators that connect, entertain, inform and inspire consumers every day. NCTA’s members have invested $300 billion in private capital to build the world’s most powerful technology platform, reaching 80 percent of American homes and serving 76 million customers. More than 200 programming networks are creating imaginative, popular, and award-winning television content. Our industry supports 3 million American jobs and employs at least 300 people in every congressional district. Founded in 2006, the Future Today Institute researches, models, and prototypes growth, innovation, and strategic opportunity. As the leading strategic foresight and futures management consultants to executive leadership teams worldwide, FTI’s data-driven applied research finds inflections and disruptive potential early. FTI positions leaders to define big bets, backcast roadmaps to present-day action, and achieve their visions of the future. Every year, the Future Today Institute works with a diverse mix of organizations on their futures. Our clients include Fortune 100 companies, Dow 30 companies, government agencies, military communities, large organizations, and investors both in the U.S. and abroad. The Future of Education in a 10G World 17