Yara International ASA 2018 second quarter results 17 July 2018 IR – 17 July 2018 2 Safe operations is our first priority 5 TRI (Total recordable injuries 12-month rolling)1 4.5 1.4 0 Jan'16 Jun'18 1) TRI: Total recordable injuries, lost time (absence from work), restricted work and medical treatment cases per one million work hours. IR – 17 July 2018 3 Market fundamentals currently challenging, but positive developments towards 2019 on grain stocks and urea supply Urea supply increases high in 2018, falling thereafter Grain prices rising slowly, and stocks are falling Global capacity additions ex China Grain price index Million tonnes Days Index 200 70 Strong Asian demand drives LNG prices higher 6.7 LNG imports 140 121.3 106.2 4.5 Trend consumption growth 2.6 2.5 24.2 100 1/2015 0 40 1/2017 Grains Price Index 1/2019 24.0 2017 2018 Capacity growth 2019 2020 Supply increase Asia 1H 2017 Europe 1H 2018 Grain stocks-to-use ex. China IR – 17 July 2018 4 Yara’s 2Q results reflect the business environment where increased deliveries and prices are offset by higher gas costs Increased deliveries in Europe following late spring Million tons N European industry deliveries Urea price development +6% 2 Tight LNG market drives European gas prices higher Global urea price rebound in June, but limited impact on 2Q USD/t USD/ MMBtu 400 9 Yara European natural gas cost 7.7 Imports 6.6 6.5 300 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.3 5.2 2Q17 3Q17 7.2 8.1 Yara Europe 7.7 6.1 TTF (1-month lag) 200 Domestic 0 2Q17 IR – 17 July 2018 2Q18 100 Jul-16 Urea fob Black Sea Urea prilled fob China Urea granular fob Egypt Urea inland proxy China 0 Jun-18 1Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 5 Increased deliveries in all main markets except Brazil, where truck strike impacts negatively Kilotons +11% 2Q17 7,331 2Q18 6,604 +18% -19% 2,413 2,039 2,052 1,671 961 1,076 1,045 586 664 711 302 Yara Europe IR – 17 July 2018 Brazil North America Asia Latin America 414 Africa 6 European market nitrate prices up 4%; Yara realized NPK prices up 7% USD/t Nitrogen upgrading margins1 (monthly publication prices) 500 Yara NPK premium over blend1 USD/t 500 +4% Urea Egypt CFR proxy +7% CAN (46% N) Weighted average global premium above blend cost Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany Ammonia CFR (46% N) Urea, CIF inland Germany DAP, CIF inland Germany Yara EU gas cost *20 0 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 Upgrading margin from gas to nitrates in 46% N (USD/t): 4Q16 2Q17 250 1) All prices in urea equivalents, with 1 month time lag IR – 17 July 2018 4Q17 2Q18 213 0 2Q15 MOP, CIF inland Germany 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 1) Yara NPK (average grade 19-10-13) net of transport and handling cost., compared with nitrate, urea, DAP and MOP publication prices Source: Fertilizer Market Publications 7 Yara Improvement Program delivering ahead of plan Start: 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 End: 2020 Today EBITDA Benefits of 310 MUSD delivered Yara Productivity System rolled out to 21 out of 29 sites. Good reliability improvements in NPK production Good improvements in procurement initiatives 310 0 IR – 17 July 2018 500 8 Yara Improvement Program accounts for ~20% of L12M EBITDA MUSD L12M earnings impacted by lower fertilizer prices and higher natural gas cost (~900 MUSD) +24% 260 1,355 Yara Improvement Program is (1) a driver of improved long-term Yara performance and (2) a response to challenging market conditions 1,095 L12M EBITDA excl. special items and YIP IR – 17 July 2018 YIP L12M EBITDA excl. special items Measured at L12M margins and prices, the equivalent number is approximately 260 MUSD. This represents almost 20% of Yara L12M EBITDA excluding special items. 9 Earnings per share impacted by higher energy cost and currency translation loss x.xx EBITDA Earnings per share Negative result includes a currency translation loss of USD 302 million, a non-cash effect mainly resulting from a strengthening US dollar through the quarter, which is fundamentally positive for Yara USD millions 0.77 480 0.59 395 359 338 296 664 347 350 1.35 377 321 0.47 0.42 0.34 381 363 352 242 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 EPS excluding currency and special items 370 303 312 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 296 0.19 0.36 0.42 0.41 0.73 0.30 0.33 0.38 0.42 0.17 -0.14 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 -0.77 Average number of shares for 2Q 2018: 273.2 million (2Q 2017: 273.2 million). IR – 17 July 2018 10 EBITDA 5% lower YoY as higher sales prices and deliveries were more than offset by higher energy cost and a weaker US dollar EBITDA, USD millions -5% 20 EBITDA ex. SI 2Q17 86 74 338 Price/Margin IR – 17 July 2018 Volume Energy costs 14 12 Currency Other 321 EBITDA ex. SI 2Q18 11 Higher natural gas cost expected for the next two quarters Yara European natural gas cost USD/ MMBtu Y-o-Y change in Yara gas cost USD millions 9.0 120 8.0 100 7.0 80 6.0 60 5.0 4.0 40 3.0 20 20 12 91 100 20 45 70 42 46 4Q17 1Q18 27 2.0 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 TTF (1-month lag) *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 10 July 2018 Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren IR – 17 July 2018 Yara Europe 0 2Q17 3Q17 EU/US actual Pilbara actual 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 EU/US estimate* 12 Yara investment activity peaked in first half 2018 Net interest-bearing debt Capex plan +10% 3.2 Cost&capacity improvements USD billions M&A 0.2 Committed growth 2.9 Maintenance 2.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 -25% 0.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 2017 2018 1H18 0.6 2H18 1.3 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.7 2019 2020 Net debt Mar 18 Net Cash Dividends Investments Yara operating earnings* received (net) dividend capital equity change acc. Inv. Net debt Jun 18 * Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/(loss) on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges IR – 17 July 2018 13 Yara Improvement Program delivering ahead of plan Start: 2016 2017 2018 2019 End: 2020 2020 Today Annual impact, USD million, vs. 2015 baseline, at 2015 margins 450 The Yara Improvement Program has so far delivered 310 million US dollars of annual sustained benefits, measured at 2015 margins 310 Sustained EBITDA improvement 500 350 242 84 One-off The equivalent number using 2018 margins is ~300 million US dollars 60 69 Cost 14 49 Investments 69 Benefits1 19 15 15 15 12 39 13 11 500 Improvements on Production volume, Consumption factor and Variable unit costs are on or ahead of target 2016 IR – 17 July 2018 1 One-off 140 116 90 18 2017 Q2 2018 benefits are related to working capital improvements and sales of white certificates 0 2018 target 2019 target 2020 target 14 Steady growth in grain consumption, production expected to fall short for the 2018/19 season Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks Days Million tons 100 2,600 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 2,000 08 09 10 11 12 13 Consumption 14 15 16 17 18E 19F 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18E 19F Production Source: USDA July 2018 IR – 17 July 2018 15 Strong urea supply growth this year, but supply-demand balance set to gradually improve after 2018 Global urea capacity additions excl. China (mill. tonnes) India Iran USA Russia Algeria Others Production 6.7 4.7 4.5 3% consumption growth 3.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.1 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: CRU June 2018 - CRU has removed Dangote Fertilizer, Nigeria (3 mill tons) from the medium-term forecast and shifted the project to 2023 IR – 17 July 2018 16 Yara’s solutions improve food production per hectare, delivered through products with lower emissions per tonne Yara crop nutrition practices enable farmers to optimize application – and thus lower emissions Yara’s product mix has significantly lower emissions than the industry average Yara Industry product mix product mix kg CO2eq/kg N product Yara Nitrates1 Global Nitrates2 • Precision farming promotes best agricultural practices • Yara’s N-sensor, N-tester and water sensor help optimize application rates and water use • Yara’s solutions help farmers comply with environmental legislation while supporting their competitiveness UAN 7.6 1. 2. ~10% ~5% ~5% ~10% ~50% 9.4 11.9 Urea 13.9 Production IR – 17 July 2018 ~75% Assumed 15% lower application rates for nitrates, due to lower volatilization Average emissions from production higher, partly driven by plants running without N2O catalysts Application 17 Yara’s mission and vision guides our strategy Our Mission Our Vision Responsibly feed the world and protect the planet. A collaborative society; a world without hunger; a planet respected. IR – 17 July 2018 18 The Crop Nutrition Leader Advance Operational Excellence We will grow responsible solutions to farmers, industry and society, while delivering superior return on capital Create Scalable Solutions IR – 17 July 2018 Drive Innovative Growth 19 Advance Advance Operational excellence; Improved safety, increased savings Examples of strategic responses Safe operations is our first priority 5 TRI (Total recordable injuries 12-month rolling)1 4.5 1.4 0 Jan'16 Jun'18 1) TRI: Total recordable injuries, lost time (absence from work), restricted work and medical treatment cases per one million work hours. IR – 17 July 2018 IR – 17 July 2018 3 20 Create Scalable Solutions; Closer collaboration with the Food Industry Examples of strategic responses Create Food Industry Farmer Crop Market depth Product Sell benefits of our solutions Asset Farmer centric solutions and tools Build crop solutions Sell what we produce • • Place new capacity Manage seasonality Build product reputation • • High quality products Viking ship brand • • • • Crop knowledge Product portfolio Application competence Building Yara’s knowledge margin • • Deliver required crop quality to processor and ensure reliable raw material supply to food factories Unlock superior value creation for farmers through food industry Time IR – 17 July 2018 21 Precision fertilization made simple - atfarm 10x10m precision application of fertilizer Quantitative recommendation “in only 5 clicks” Empowered by 20 years of Yara precision fertilization R&D Benefits for farmers - Higher yield - Reduced waste - Higher protein content IR – 17 July 2018 Examples of strategic responses Create 22 Examples of strategic responses Drive Innovative Growth; Yara is delivering on its growth pipeline 1 Jan 2018 1Q Babrala (India) Acquisition of urea plant and distribution assets 2Q Cubatao (Brazil) N and P production facility acquisition - 1.2 mt urea and approx 40 MUSD EBITDA p.a. - Provides footprint to accelerate premium product growth - 1.4 mtpa and approx. 60 MUSD EBITDA p.a. - Strengthens production and industrial footprint in Brazil Porsgrunn (Norway) NPK and calcium nitrate expansion Freeport (US) Hydrogen-based ammonia new-build JV with BASF (Yara 68%) - Adds 250 ktpa and approx. 50 MUSD EBITDA p.a. - Record nitric acid production in March (5,127 tpd) - 550 ktpa and approx. 100 MUSD EBITDA p.a. (Yara share) - Strengthens Yara’s global ammonia position Drive 3Q 4Q 1 Jan 2019 Sluiskil (NL) Revamp and urea+S expansion - Adds approx. 210 ktpa and 30 MUSD EBITDA p.a. - Improved product mix - from urea prills to nitrates and urea+S Köping (Sweden) Nitric acid revamp and TAN expansion - 90 ktpa and approx. 20 MUSD EBITDA p.a. - Strong long-term fundamentals for civil explosives industry Salitre (Brazil) Phosphate mine - Adds approx. 1.1 mtpa SSP equivalents by 2020 - Limited earnings until chemical production starts end 2019 EBITDA figures at 2015 prices except Cubatão which reflects business case prices IR – 17 July 2018 23 Major improvement and growth investments in 2018; main earnings improvement from 2019 onwards1 Improvement and growth capex2 (BUSD) Drive EBITDA improvement3 (MUSD) Improvement program Committed expansions + M&A 1.5 1,100 900 0.1 500 500 Improvement program: + 350 MUSD cost improvement + 150 MUSD volume improvement: -> 0.4 mill. tonnes ammonia -> 0.7 mill. tonnes fertilizer 0.9 0.1 282 124 450 350 450 40 242 40 150 2016 2017 2018 2019 600 2020 0.8 0.1 Committed expansions + M&A: + 1.4 mill. tonnes ammonia + 4.7 mill. tonnes fertilizer 1.3 0.5 0.9 Earnings improvement3 (USD per share) 2.0 1.5 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 2016 2017 2018 2019 1.1 2020 2016 0.7 0.4 0.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 Currency assumptions for 2018 onwards: USD/NOK 8,01, EUR/USD: 1.18 , USD/BRL: 3.83 2.Excluding maintenance capex on existing assets . Yara’s share of capex. Fully consolidated entities presented at 100% basis 3 Measured at 2015 conditions. Main average market prices: Ammonia fob Yuzhny 390 USD/t, Urea fob Yuzhny 275 USD/t, DAP fob Morocco 495 USD/t IR – 17 July 2018 24 Additional information IR – 17 July 2018 Yara has expected commodity nitrogen oversupply, and has focused its growth pipeline on premium & industrial products Growth focused on premium & industrial Expand premium products sales and supply Expand commodity scale based on attractive full-cost growth opportunities Act on attractive opportunities to grow industrial sales and supply Structurally secure P and K supply Expected start up Uusikaupunki NPK Porsgrunn/Glomfjord CN/NPK Sluiskil urea+S Rio Grande NPK/NPK blends 3Q 2016 1Q 2018 3Q 2018 2H 2020 Freeport ammonia JV 2Q 2018 Pipeline EBITDA (2015 prices, USDm)1 160 180 2019 2020 150 150 190 40 2018 2021 150 70 Babrala urea acquisition 1Q 2018 2018 Pilbara – TAN 2Q 20172 Köping – TAN 3Q 2018 40 Cubatão – N and P 2Q 2018 2018 Galvani / Salitre mining 2Q18, chemical 4Q19 0 2018 Sum 150 2019 2020 2021 90 110 120 2019 2020 2021 170 170 2019 2020 2021 430 610 620 30 1) Including Yara’s share of volume in equity accounted investees. Fully consolidated entities presented at 100% basis 2) Plant started up in 2Q 2017, but has suffered from technical difficulties and the site is currently undergoing a turnaround. IR – 17 July 2018 26 Yara is delivering on its growth pipeline; multiple plant expansions and M&A coming on stream in 2018 Production growth 2015 - 2020 Mill.tonnes (mt) Finished products Ammonia 9.2 25.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 GrowHow UK (divested mid-2015) 0.1 1.2 0.7 7.7 0.2 0.4 Yara share of Qafco & Lifeco 20.6 0.3 0.5 0.8 Yara-operated plants 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.6 18.7 6.4 20151 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Uusikaupunki (3Q 2016) 5 TAN Pilbara (2Q 2017) Babrala (1Q 2018) Por/Glo (1Q 2018) Cubatão (2Q 2018) Sluiskil (3Q 2018) Köping (3Q 2018) Salitre 2 (4Q 2019) Rio Grande 3 (2Q 2020) Est. 2020 20151 Pilbara4 Babrala (1Q 2018) Freeport (2Q 2018) Cubatão (2Q 2018) Est. 2020 Adjusted to normalized / 2016 turnaround level (0.7mt finished fertilizer and 0.2mt NH3) and regularity level (0.7mt finished fertilizer and 0.4mt NH3) Salitre will reach 1.1 mill.tonnes in 2022 Rio Grande expansion also adds 1 million tonnes NPK blends by 2020 Including 100% ownership in Pilbara NH3 plant (not included in committed growth pipeline) TAN Pilbara started up in 2Q 2017, but has suffered from technical difficulties and the site is currently undergoing a turnaround IR – 17 July 2018 27 Improvement and growth investments; earnings and sensitivities Improvement program: Impact2 of +100 USD/t price change (USD/share) EBITDA improvement1 (MUSD) 1,100 900 0.09 500 450 0.06 500 282 124 350 450 242 40 40 2016 2017 600 150 2018 2019 Ammonia 2020 Urea Growth: Impact2 of +100 USD/t price change (USD/share) Earnings improvement1 (USD per share) 2.0 1.5 0.30 1.2 0.9 0.19 0.10 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.9 0.6 2016 0.7 0.4 0.2 Ammonia Urea DAP 3 0.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 Improvement program Growth IR – 17 July 2018 1 Measured at 2015 conditions. Main average market prices: Ammonia fob Yuzhny 390 USD/t, Urea fob Yuzhny 275 USD/t, DAP fob Morocco 495 USD/t. 2 Improvement: 2020 numbers. Growth: At full capacity (2019 for urea and ammonia, 2020 for DAP). 3 Phosphate-driven price change, equivalent to 138 USD/t phosphate rock (72 bpl) 28 Higher margins in Crop Nutrition and Industrial segment EBITDA excluding special items EBITDA (USD millions) 180 163 166 153 101 118 63 95 54 44 Crop Nutrition IR – 17 July 2018 Industrial 2Q17 2Q18 Production 29 Debt/equity ratio Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period) 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.22 0.22 0.17 0.13 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.01 -0.04 2013 IR – 17 July 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 30 Lower upgrading margins to nitrates, premiums in line with last year USD/t Nitrogen upgrading margins1 (monthly publication prices) 500 USD/t 90 +4% Urea Egypt CFR proxy European nitrate premium2 (quarterly Yara realized) CAN (46% N) Ammonia CFR (46% N) Yara EU gas cost *20 0 2Q15 0 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 Upgrading margin from gas to nitrates in 46% N (USD/t): Source: Fertilizer Market Publications IR – 17 July 2018 2Q17 250 4Q17 2Q18 213 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 2) Yara European realized nitrate prices (excl. sulphur grades) compared with urea publication prices (Egypt CFR proxy) with 1 month time lag. All numbers in USD per tonne of CAN equivalents. 31 Solid commodity phosphate margins and compound NPK premiums NPK premium over blend1 Phosphate upgrading margins USD/t 500 USD/t 500 DAP FOB US Gulf Weighted average global premium above blend cost Value above raw material Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany Urea, CIF inland Germany NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22 DAP, CIF inland Germany Rock, fob North Africa *1.4 0 2Q15 Source: Fertilizer Market Publications IR – 17 July 2018 2Q18 0 2Q15 MOP, CIF inland Germany 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 1) Export NPK plants, average grade 19-10-13, net of transport and handling cost. 32 Energy cost Yearly averages 2009 – 2015, quarterly averages for 2016-18 with forward prices* for 3Q18 and 4Q18. 10.7 11.0 11.4 10.5 9.2 7.6 8.2 6.6 9.1 8.1 9.4 8.0 8.0 6.6 8.1 6.9 4.7 5.7 4.8 4.0 4.4 7.1 6.4 5.0 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.4 4.4 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.3 2.8 3.0 5.5 4.2 4.4 4.0 4.1 3.7 2.8 6.6 6.5 2.6 2.0 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.3 3.0 5.2 7.4 6.5 5.5 5.9 8.5 8.2 7.8 8.0 6.2 6.2 6.1 4.7 3.2 2.9 3.5 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global TTF day ahead (Zeebrugge 2009-2012) Yara Europe *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 10 July 2018 Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren IR – 17 July 2018 33 Increased ammonia and finished products production Ammonia1 Finished fertilizer & industrial products1 Kilotons Kilotons +13% 2,200 +10% 5,500 Urea Nitrates NPK 0 CN UAN SSP 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018 1) Including share of equity-accounted investees IR – 17 July 2018 34 Fertilizer deliveries Kilotons 7,000 Outside Europe Europe 0 2011 IR – 17 July 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 35 Yara 2Q fertilizer deliveries by market and product Kilotons 2Q17 2Q18 2,413 2,052 2,039 1,671 664 Europe Brazil 961 711 1,076 1,045 586 Latin America North America 414 302 Asia Africa 1,872 1,213 1,359 Compound NPK 1,097 1,007 Blend NPK 1,137 1,401 Nitrate 1,244 Urea 1,094 846 Other products 475 465 UAN 371 355 CN 1) Yara-produced compound NPK and third party sourced (Total NPK excluding blend NPK) IR – 17 July 2018 36 Fertilizer deliveries by product and source Kilotons 1,872 1,401 1,449 1,359 1,213 1,137 1,244 1,097 1,217 1,007 465 475 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 Nitrate NPK compounds NPK blends Urea UAN Yara-produced deliveries IR – 17 July 2018 2Q17 2Q18 Other Joint venture & third party sourced 37 Strong premium product deliveries Value-added fertilizer deliveries1 Value-added fertilizer deliveries1 4,000 407 375 3,500 369 333 327 355 312 311 3,000 260 2,500 201 204 2,000 CAGR 9% 1,500 218 142 1,000 63 83 500 0 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 Outside Europe 1) YaraBela, YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries IR – 17 July 2018 2Q18 Asia Brazil Latin America excl. Brazil Africa 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 Europe North America 38 AdBlue deliveries Kilotons 600 0 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 IR – 17 July 2018 39 Yara stocks Kilotons Finished fertilizer 8,000 Other Compound NPK Nitrates 0 IR – 17 July 2018 Urea 40 Improving grain economics – the Food and Cereal Indexes at 5year average FAO price index Index 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014 1/2015 1/2016 1/2017 1/2018 Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg. Source: FAO IR – 17 July 2018 41 Non-commercials’ net long position in corn Thousand contracts 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission IR – 17 July 2018 42 China: Coal prices still supporting the urea market Coal price in China (fob Qinhuangdao 5500, RMB/mt) China anthracite and urea prices (RMB/mt) 900 2018 2017 2016 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: IHS, CFMW IR – 17 July 2018 43 Stable Chinese urea pricing, global market moving up sharply through June, almost no Chinese exports Increasing urea pricing (USD/ton) Chinese export close to zero (1000 tons) 390 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 370 350 330 310 290 270 250 230 210 190 170 Urea fob Black Sea Urea granular fob Egypt Source: BOABC, CFMW IR – 17 July 2018 Urea prilled fob China Urea inland proxy China 44 Chinese domestic supply slightly up, as export decline more than offsets lower production Chinese urea production down vs last year (million tons) Export reduction exceed production decline(million tons) 5.2 60 49.8 4% 43.8 50 16/17 40 48.1 45.7 6.0 2.5 30 20 10 Source: CFMW, covering close to 100% of production IR – 17 July 2018 Jul-May 16/17 Production Export Domestic Domestic Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Export 3.6 0 Production 17/18 Jul-May 17/18 45 Deliveries in USA similar to last season, in West Europe modestly down USA Million tons N West Europe Million tons N 0% 18 -4% 8 Net imports Imports Domestic Production 0 0 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries. Total nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates IR – 17 July 2018 46 European producers’ nitrate stocks Index June 2007 = 1 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Jul Aug 17/18 Sep Oct 12/13 Nov 13/14 Dec 14/15 Jan Feb 15/16 Mar Apr May Jun 16/17 Source: Fertilizers Europe, June estimate by Yara IR – 17 July 2018 47 Modest import catch-up need in India Calendar year Season-to-date (Apr – Jun) +2.6% +1.7% 29.4 Million tonnes 26.9 25.5 22.6 20.8 26.4 20 20.7 30.2 29.7 29.6 30.6 21.5 22 22.3 23 22.7 6.3 Million tonnes 27.3 23.5 19.7 20.1 32.5 31.5 23.7 24.4 5.6 23.7 2017 2005 Production IR – 17 July 2018 6.4 6.0 2016 2017 Sales 48 Key value drivers – quarterly averages Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea granular fob Egypt (dotted line, USD/t) TTF day ahead (USD/MMBtu) 7.7 6.6 5.0 5.5 2Q17 3Q17 7.3 190 201 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu) 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 2Q17 207 234 3Q17 244 272 229 4Q17 261 1Q18 227 247 2Q18 Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t) CAN cif Germany (USD/t) 198 205 2Q17 3Q17 239 245 4Q17 1Q18 211 2Q18 NOK/USD exchange rate 8.5 2.9 286 282 287 231 8.2 198 8.0 8.0 7.8 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank IR – 17 July 2018 49 10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages USD/t USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea 1,000 500 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea/Urea granular fob Egypt 0 2008 USD/t CAN cif Germany 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 DAP fob US Gulf/MOP granular fob Vancouver 1,200 800 1,000 600 800 600 400 400 200 200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Fertilizer Market Publications IR – 17 July 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average prices 2008 - 2017 50 IR – 17 July 2018
