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ANEXO 9 REGRESIÓN FUENTES DE EMPLEO vs. PEA, PIB, POB 12 y mas Los datos son los siguientes: Nacional Periodo Fuentes de empleo PIB PEA 1991 19957571 1189016973 1992 20294459 1232162341 1993 20631347 1256195971 1994 20717181 1311661116 1995 20803014 1230771052 1996 21853765 1294196562 1997 23539746 1381839196 1998 24547736 1451350909 1999 25542984 1503930030 2000 27701281 1602542837 2001 27631150 1599787373 2002 28861652 1618085765 2003 30799292 1669603457 31229048 32440430 33651812 34605148 35558484 36580746 38344658 39562404 39648333 40161543 40072856 41085736 41515672 Tabla 1. Datos para la regresión múltiple a nivel nacional. Pob 12 y más 58317249 59658722 61000194 62491145 63982096 66037955 67702002 69537053 70818567 72137537 73577159 75352912 76863320 Regression Summ ary Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 3 Independents 13 Count 0 Num. Missing R .994 R Squared .988 Adjusted R Squared .984 465920.684 RMS Residual ANOVA Table Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 3 Independents DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F-Value P-Value 5.488E13 252.829 <.0001 Regression 3 1.647E14 Residual 9 1.954E12 217082084140.593 12 Total 1.666E14 Regression Coefficients Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 3 Independents Coefficient Std. Error Intercept Std. Coeff. t-Value P-Value -10720220.046 2017761.291 -10720220.046 -5.313 .0005 .0039 PIB .012 .003 .573 3.856 PEA -.635 .211 -.591 -3.008 .0148 .607 .168 .998 3.609 .0057 Pob 12 y mas Residual Statistics Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 3 Independents 8 # >= 0 5 #<0 SS[e(i) - e(i-1)] 4.192E12 Durbin-Watson 2.146 Serial Autocorrelation -.184 Residuals vs. Fitted Residual Fuentes de Empleo 600000 400000 200000 0 -200000 -400000 -600000 -800000 18000000 22000000 26000000 Fitted Fuentes de Empleo 3E7 REGRESIÓN FUENTES DE EMPLEO vs. PIB Regression Summ ary Fuentes de Em pleo vs. PIB Count 13 Num. Missing 0 R .986 R Squared .971 Adjusted R Squared RMS Residual .969 659798.525 ANOVA Table Fuentes de Em pleo vs. PIB DF Sum of Squares Regression 1 1.618E14 Mean Square F-Value P-Value 1.618E14 371.712 <.0001 Residual 11 4.789E12 435334093827.960 Total 12 1.666E14 Regression Coefficients Fuentes de Em pleo vs. PIB Coefficient Intercept Std. Coeff. t-Value -6078792.878 1574303.628 -6078792.878 -3.861 .0026 19.280 <.0001 PIB Std. Error .021 .001 .986 Regression Plot 32000000 Fuentes de Empleo 3E7 28000000 26000000 24000000 22000000 2E7 18000000 1150000000 1.3E9 1450000000 PIB Y = -6078792.878 + .021 * X; R^2 = .971 1.6E9 P-Value REGRESIÓN PIB vs. TIEMPO Regression Summ ary PIB vs. Tiempo Count 13 Num. Missing 0 R .967 R Squared .934 Adjusted R Squared RMS Residual .928 45970972.461 ANOVA Table PIB vs. Tiempo DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F-Value P-Value 1 3.312E17 3.312E17 156.707 <.0001 Residual 11 2.325E16 2.113E15 Total 12 3.544E17 Regression Regression Coefficients PIB vs. Tiempo Coefficient Intercept Tiempo Std. Coeff. t-Value P-Value 1112256464.077 27046948.343 1112256464.077 41.123 <.0001 12.518 <.0001 42657247.791 Std. Error 3407595.192 .967 Regression Plot 1.7E9 1650000000 1.6E9 1550000000 PIB 1.5E9 1450000000 1.4E9 1350000000 1.3E9 1250000000 1.2E9 1150000000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Tiempo Y = 1112256464.077 + 42657247.791 * X; R^2 = .934 14 Los datos para Puebla son: Puebla Fuentes de Empleo 844890 900814 956737 1041680 1126622 1162003 1197384 PIB PEA 4.7 5 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 Tabla 2. Datos para la regresión en Puebla. Pob 12 y más 1691461 1775647 1859833 1930769 2001705 2094173 2186640 3177100 3327289 3477477 3572630 3667783 3767410 3867037 REGRESIÓN FUENTES DE EMPLEO vs. PIB, Pob 12 y mas Regression Summ ary Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 2 Independents 7 Count 0 Num. Missing R .995 R Squared .990 .986 Adjusted R Squared 16271.830 RMS Residual ANOVA Table Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 2 Independents DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F-Value P-Value Regression 2 110119652624.653 55059826312.327 207.951 <.0001 Residual 4 Total 6 111178742485.429 1059089860.776 Regression Coefficients Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 2 Independents Coefficient Std. Error Std. Coeff. t-Value 97191.099 -941024.538 -9.682 .0006 -1.135 -2.517 .0656 2.116 4.692 .0094 Intercept -941024.538 PIB -420849.917 167225.660 Pob 12 y mas 1.182 264772465.194 .252 P-Value Regression Summary Fuentes de Empleo vs. Pob 12 y m as Count 7 Num. Missing 0 |R| .988 R Squared .975 .970 Adjusted R Squared 23392.499 RMS Residual ANOVA Table Fuentes de Empleo vs. Pob 12 y m as DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F-Value P-Value Regression 1 108442697364.997 108442697364.997 198.174 <.0001 Residual 5 Total 6 111178742485.429 2736045120.431 547209024.086 Regression Coefficients Fuentes de Empleo vs. Pob 12 y m as Coefficient Std. Error Intercept Std. Coeff. t-Value -926767.380 139485.058 -926767.380 Pob 12 y mas .552 .039 Confidence Intervals Fuentes de Empleo vs. Pob 12 y m as Coefficient 95% Low er Intercept .988 P-Value -6.644 .0012 14.077 <.0001 95% Upper -926767.380 -1285325.135 -568209.625 Pob 12 y mas .552 .451 .653 Residual Statistics Fuentes de Empleo vs. Pob 12 y m as 3 # >= 0 4 #<0 SS[e(i) - e(i-1)] 4325505122.071 Durbin-Watson 1.581 .130 Serial Autocorrelation Regression Plot 1250000 Fuentes de Empleo 1200000 1150000 1100000 1050000 1000000 950000 900000 850000 800000 3100000 3300000 3500000 Pob 12 y mas Y = -926767.38 + .552 * X; R^2 = .975 3700000 3900000 Residuals vs. Fitted Residual Fuentes de Empleo 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 -10000 -20000 -30000 -40000 800000 900000 1000000 1100000 Fitted Fuentes de Empleo 1200000 Dependent vs. Fitted 1250000 Fuentes de Empleo 1200000 1150000 1100000 1050000 1000000 950000 900000 850000 800000 800000 900000 1000000 1100000 Fitted Fuentes de Empleo 1200000 Residuals vs. Dependent Residual Fuentes de Empleo 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 -10000 -20000 -30000 -40000 800000 FUENTES DE EMPLEO vs. Población 12 y más 900000 1000000 1100000 Fuentes de Empleo 1200000
