- FEWS Net

FEWS NET
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
GLOBAL Weather Hazards Summary
May 13 - 19, 2016
Elevated risks of flooding in Central Asia, Hispaniola, and the Greater Horn of Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Seasonally Dry
3
1. Poorly-distributed
rainfall since October
2015 has resulted in large
moisture deficits, leading to
wilted crops, livestock deaths, and reduced water
availability over many areas of Southern Africa. With
the season coming to an end, recovery is unlikely.
4
5
2
2. Low and infrequent rainfall since late March has led to
locally moderate to large moisture deficits across parts of
southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania.
3. Irregular and poor rainfall over the past four weeks has
led to increasing rainfall deficits over Liberia, portions of
eastern Guinea, Cote d’Ivoire, and western Ghana. Limited
rain is forecast during the next week, likely maintaining
moisture deficits.
1
1
4. Significantly heavy precipitation over eastern Ethiopia and
Somalia during the last two weeks has elevated rivers levels along
the Jubba and Shabelle River Basins and has triggered flooding and
damages to infrastructure over many regions in eastern Ethiopia.
Enhanced precipitation is forecast along the Somalia coastline during mid-May.
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
5. Torrential, heavy rainfall since late April has triggered floods, damages to infrastructure, displaced populations, and fatalities
throughout many regions of Kenya. Enhanced rainfall is forecast to continue this week, sustaining the risk of flooding and
other adverse ground impacts.
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International Development or the United States Government.The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by
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Valid: May 1 – May 7, 2016
ing late April and early May, much enhanced seasonal
avy
rains continue
Greater
Horn. Horn of Africa,
Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm)
cipitation
prevailedthroughout
throughout
the Greater
Valid: May 1 – MayMay
7, 2016
Weatherflood
Hazards
Summary
13-19, 2016
ging copious,
inducing
rains across many parts of
ring
late
April
and
early
May,
much
enhanced
seasonal
nya, Ethiopia and Somalia. According to satellite rainfall
vy
rains continue
throughout
Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm)
ecipitation
prevailed
throughout
the Horn.
Greater
Horn of Africa,
Africa
Overview
mates,
the
highest
weeklyGreater
rainfall
accumulations
were
Valid: May 1 – May 7, 2016
nging
copious,
flood
inducing
rains
across
many
parts
of
eived over northern Ethiopia and northern Somalia
Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm)
Heavy
rains
continue
throughout
Greater
Horn
ng
late
April
and
early
May,
much
enhanced
seasonal
nya,
Ethiopia
and distributed
Somalia. According
to satellite
50mm),
with well
moderate and
locally rainfall
heavy
Valid: May 1-7, 2016
cipitation
prevailed
throughout
the
Greater
Horn
of
Africa,
imates,
the
highest
weekly
rainfall
accumulations
were
ounts also
received
throughout
South
Sudan,
southern
During late April and early May, seasonal precipitation increased throughout
ging
flood
inducing
rainsand
across
many
parts
of
eivedcopious,
over northern
Ethiopia
northern
Somalia
iopia,
Uganda,
Kenya
and
southern
Somalia
(Figure
1).
the Greater
Horn of
Africa,
bringing copious,
flood-inducing
rains across many
ya,
Ethiopia
and
Somalia.
According
to
satellite
rainfall
150mm),
with
well
distributed
moderate
and
locally
heavy
ekly rainfall
to remain
low and
sporadic
across
partscontinued
of Kenya, Ethiopia
and Somalia.
According
to satellite
rainfall estimates,
mates,
the
highest
weekly
rainfall
accumulations
wereEthiopia and
ounts also
received
throughout
South
Sudan,
southern
theastern
Kenya
and
northeastern
Tanzania.
the highest weekly rainfall accumulations were over northern
eived
northern
Ethiopia
and
northern(Figure
Somalia
hiopia, over
Uganda,
Kenya
and southern
Somalia
1).
northern
Somalia (>150mm),
with
well-distributed
moderate
and locally
50mm),
with
well
distributed
moderate
and
locally
heavy
eekly
rainfall
continued
to
remain
low
and
sporadic
across
heavy
amounts throughout
Sudan, southern
Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya
owing two
consecutive
weeksSouth
of heavy,
above-average
ounts
alsoand
received
throughout
Sudan,
southern
utheastern
Kenya
andaffected
northeastern
Tanzania.
southern
Somalia
(Figure
1).South
Weekly
rainfall
to remain low and
fall, several
regions
by poor
rainfall
andcontinued
anomalous
opia,
Uganda,
Kenya
and
southern
Somalia
(Figure
1).
sporadic
across
southeastern
and northeastern
Tanzania.
ness earlier
in the
season
haveKenya
experienced
a favorable
ekly
rainfall
to remain
low
and sporadic
across
lowing
two continued
consecutive
weeks of
heavy,
above-average
overy.
However,
this mid-season
recovery
has
not been
as
Following
two
consecutive
weeks
of
heavy,
above-average
rainfall, several
heastern
Kenya
and
northeastern
Tanzania.
Figure 1: NOAA/CPC
nfall,
several
regions
affected
by
poor
rainfall
and
anomalous
nounced over parts southeastern Kenya and northeastern
regions
affected
by poorhave
rainfall experienced
and anomalous dryness
earlier in the
ness
earlier
in
the
season
a
favorable
nzania, where seasonal moisture deficits have been
season
have
experienced
a favorable
recovery.
However,
thisas
mid-season
overy. two
However,
this
mid-season
has
not
been
GFS Total Precipitation Forecast (mm)
owing
consecutive
weeks
ofrecovery
heavy,
above-average
tained
which
may
negatively
impact
ground
conditions.
recovery
has
not
been
as
pronounced
over
parts
of
southeastern
Kenya
and
Figure
1:
NOAA/CPC
Valid: May 11 - May 18, 2016
onounced
over
partswet
southeastern
Kenya
and
fall, several
regions
affected
by poor
rainfall
andnortheastern
anomalous
adversely
affected
reover,
the
current
pattern
has
also
northeastern
Tanzania,
where
seasonal
moisture
deficits
have
been
sustained
nzania,
where
seasonal
moisture
deficits ahave
been
ness
earlier
the
season
have
experienced
favorable
ny
areas
in in
Kenya,
Ethiopia
localized
and
may
negatively
impact and
groundSomalia
conditions.with
Moreover,
the current wet
GFS Total Precipitation Forecast (mm)
stained
which
may
negatively
impact
ground
conditions.
overy.
However,
this
mid-season
recovery
has
not
been
as
Source: NOAA/CPC
ding, damages
to infrastructure,
displaced
populations
and
pattern has
also adversely affected
many areas
in Kenya, Ethiopia
and
Somalia
Valid: May 11 - May 18, 2016
Figure
1:
NOAA/CPC
adversely
affected
reover,Additional
the
current
wet
pattern
has
also few
nounced
over
parts
southeastern
Kenya
and
northeastern
Figure
2:
GFS
Total
Precipitation
Forecast
(mm)
alities.
rainfall
in
over
the
next
weeks
is
likely
with localized flooding, damages to infrastructure, displaced populations and
ny areas
in
Kenya,
Ethiopia
and
Somalia
with
localized
Valid: May 11 - 18, 2016
zania,
where
seasonal
moisture
deficits
have
been
sustain
the
risk
of
flooding
before
the
end
of
the
season,
as
fatalities. Additional rainfall over the next few weeks is likely to sustain the
GFS Total Precipitation Forecast (mm)
oding,
to infrastructure,
displaced
populations
andShabelle River
ained
which
negatively
impact
ground
conditions.
Jubbadamages
and
Riverthe
basins
reported
elevated
risk Shabelle
of may
flooding
before
end
of have
the season,
as the
Jubba
and
Valid: May 11 - May 18, 2016
alities.
rainfall
in elevated
overhas
the
next
few
is likely
adversely
affected
eover,
the
current
wet
pattern
also
have
reported
levels
both
up weeks
and downstream.
els
bothAdditional
upbasins
and
downstream.
sustain
of flooding
before
end of the
as
ny
areastheinrisk
Kenya,
Ethiopia
andthe
Somalia
withseason,
localized
Jubba
and
Shabelle
River
basins
have
reported
elevated
ding,
damages
to infrastructure,
displaced
populations
and
During the
upcoming
little
relief
the
wetto
pattern
expected; as
ing the
upcoming
outlookweek,
period,
littleto relief
the is
wet
els
both
up
and
downstream.
weather
models
suggest
a
high
potential
for
heavy
rainfall
along
ities.
Additional
rainfall
in
over
the
next
few
weeks
is
likely
ern is expected; as weather models suggest a high the Somalia
coastline
(Figure
2).
Flood-affected
portions
of southwestern
ustain
theheavy
risk ofrainfall
flooding
before
end
of
the
season,
asKenya are also
ential for
along
the the
Somalia
coastline
(Figure
forecast
to receive
heavy
rainfall have
the
next
week. Portions
ofwet
central and
ring
the
upcoming
outlook
period,
little
relief
to
the
Jubba
and
Shabelle
River
basins
reported
elevated
Flood affected portions of southwestern Kenya are also
western
Ethiopia
are
may also experience
locally
heavyarainfall.
tern
is
expected;
as
weather
models
suggest
high
ls
both
up
and
downstream.
ecast to receive heavy rainfall the next week as well.
ential for
heavy
along
the Somalia
coastline
(Figure
tions
of Anomalous
centralrainfall
and
western
Ethiopia
are may
also
early
season
dryness
expands
throughout
Gulf
of Guinea region
Flood
affected
portions
of
southwestern
Kenya
are
also
ng
the
upcoming
outlook
period,
little
relief
to
the
wet
erience locally heavy rainfall as well.
ecastis toexpected;
receive heavyweather
rainfall the nextsuggest
week as
well.
ern
a high
Following an as
anomalously wetmodels
March, low and poorly-distributed
rtions
of
central
and
western
Ethiopia
are
may
also rainfall
ential for heavy
rainfallacross
along
theGulf
Somalia
(Figure
has continued
many
of Guineacoastline
countries, leading
to increased
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
perience
locally heavy
rainfall
as well.
Flood affected
ofthe
southwestern
Kenya
are toalso
moisture portions
deficits since
beginning of April.
According
satellite rainfall
cast to early
receive
heavy
rainfallexpands
the next
week the
asGulf
well.
omalous
season
dryness
of deteriorationSatellite-Estimated Total Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
estimates
and
the
seasonal
evolution
ofthroughout
anomalies,
sharpest
Source: NOAA/CPC
nea
ionsregion.
of ofcentral
and
western
Ethiopia
are
may
also
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
moisture conditions has occurred over the southern portions of Ghana,
Valid: April 8– May 7, 2016
Figure 3: Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
erience locally
heavy
rainfall
asdeficits
well. have strengthened in excess of 50mm
Togo, and
Benin
as rainfall
omalous
early
season
dryness
expands
throughout
Gulf
of late March, Satellite-Estimated
Valid: April 8 - May 7, 2016
(Figure
3). Here, rainfall
has been
low and
poorlyand
distributed
since
owing an
anomalously
wet
March,
low
poorly
Total Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
inea region.
which ishas
likelycontinued
to negativelyacross
impact early
season
activities in the
Valid:
April
8– May 7, 2016
ributed rainfall
many
Gulfcropping
of Guinea
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
region. Model
forecast suggest
the continuation
averagethe
to below-average
ntries leading
to increased
moisture
deficits ofsince
lowing
an
anomalously
wet
March,
lowestimates
and Gulf
poorly
precipitation
over
theto
southern
Gulfrainfall
ofthroughout
Guinea
region.
malous
season
dryness
expands
of
inning ofearly
April.
According
satellite
and
Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
tributed
rainfall
has
continued
across
many
Gulf
of
Guinea
nea
region.
seasonal evolution of anomalies, the sharpest deterioration
Valid: April 8– May 7, 2016
untries leading
to has
increased
moisture
the
moisture
conditions
occurred
over thedeficits
southernsince
portions
ginning
of April.
According
to satellite
rainfall
estimates
and
owing Togo,
an
anomalously
wet
March,
lowstrengthened
and poorly
Ghana,
Benin
as rainfall
deficits
have
in
seasonal
evolution
of
anomalies,
the
sharpest
deterioration
ibuted
rainfall (Figure
has continued
across
many
of low
Guinea
ess
of 50mm
3). Here,
rainfall
hasGulf
been
and
moisture
conditions
has
over the
southern
portions
ntries
leading
to increased
moisture
the
rly distributed
since
late occurred
March,
which
is deficits
likely
to since
negatively
Ghana,
Togo,
Benin
as
rainfall
deficits
have
strengthened
in
nning
of April.
According
satellite in
rainfall
estimates
and
act
early
season
croppingtoactivities
the region.
Model
cess
of
50mm
(Figure
3). Here,
rainfall
has
been
low and
seasonal
evolution
of anomalies,
the
sharpest
deterioration
ecast
suggest
the
continuation
of average
to below-average
orly
distributed
since
late
March,
which
is
likely
to
negatively
moisture
has occurred
the southern
cipitationconditions
over the southern
Gulf ofover
Guinea
region. portions
pact early
season
activities
thestrengthened
region. Model
Ghana,
Togo,
Benincropping
as rainfall
deficits in
have
in
ecast
suggest
the
continuation
of
average
to
below-average
ess of 50mm (Figure 3). Here, rainfall has been low and
ecipitation
oversince
the southern
Gulf which
of Guinea
region.
rly distributed
late March,
is likely
to negatively
Source: NOAA/CPC
act early season cropping activities in the region. Model
Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
cast suggest the continuation of average to below-average
Famine
Early
Warning
Systems
Network
2 (up to
cipitation
over the
southern
of1 Guinea
region.
ote: The hazards
outlook
map onGulf
page
is based
on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts
Figurepolygons
3: NOAA/CPC
eek). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded
are added in areas where anomalous conditions hav
en observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long rang
asonal
forecasts
indicate
current
or projected
food weather/climate
security conditions.
ote:
Theclimate
hazards
outlook or
map
on page
1 is based
on current
information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to
Weather Hazards Summary
May 13-19, 2016
Central Asia Weather Hazards
The risk of flooding due to snow melt and rainfall is
expected in Afghanistan and Tajikistan.
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Temperatures:
Above-normal temperatures (1 to 5 °C) prevailed
across Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan during the first week of May, while
Kazakhstan experienced seasonal temperatures.
The hottest temperatures were observed across
western Afghanistan and Turkmenistan where
maximum temperatures were in the upper 30s to
around 40 °C. Temperatures are expected to average
near to above-normal during the next week.
Precipitation:
During the first week of May, locally heavy rain, more
than 25 mm, fell across parts of Afghanistan, southern
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
The CPC unified gauge analysis indicates that most
areas across Central Asia have experienced near or
above-normal precipitation during the past 30 days.
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
The risk of localized flooding due to snow melt and rainfall is expected across Afghanistan and Tajikistan during the next
week. The GFS model depicts precipitation amounts locally exceeding 25 mm, especially across northeast Afghanistan and
Tajikistan.
Central America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards
1. Very heavy rainfall has led to flooding in
many areas of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti during the last 2 weeks. More drenching
rainfall is possible over some of the same
areas this week, further exasperating flood
and mudslide threats on already soaked
ground and inundated rivers.
No Hazards
Posted for
Central America
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
3
ell-distributed,rain
raintotals
totalsare
areforecast
forecasttotobebebelow-normal
below-normalfor
formost
mostareas
areas
next
week.
ll-distributed,
next
week.
aslighter
lighter
lastweek
week
many
areascompared
comparedtotothe
theprevious
previousweek.
week.The
Theheaviest
heaviestrains
rains(>100mm)
(>100mm)were
were
found
in
westernP
last
forformany
areas
found
in
western,
Weather
Hazards
Summary
May
13-19,
2016
Nicaragua,where
whereflooding
floodinghas
hasbeen
beenreported
reportedininand
andaround
aroundManagua.
Managua.More
Moremoderate
moderaterains
rainsstretched
stretchednorthward
northwardononalon
alo
Nicaragua,
ugh
El
Salvador
and
southern
Guatemala.
Similar
amounts
of
around
25mm
were
observed
along
the
Honduras-Nicara
gh El Salvador
southern
Guatemala.
amounts of around 25mm were observed along the Honduras-Nicarag
Central and
America
and the
CaribbeanSimilar
Overview
where
acrossthe
theregion,
region,less
lessthan
than25mm
25mmofofrain
rainwas
wasobserved
observedwith
withamounts
amountscloser
closertotozero
zeroin inthe
thePetén
Petén
Province
Guat
here across
Province
of of
Guatem
Well-distributed
rain
totals
are
forecast
to
be
below-normal
for
most
areas
next
week
thisseason
seasonhas
hasnot
notstrayed
strayedtoo
toofarfarfrom
fromthe
theaverage
averageininmost
mostareas.
areas.30-day
30-dayrainfall
rainfallsurpluses
surplusesare
aremost
mostapparent
appare
ecesosofarfarthis
Compared to
the previous
week,
rainfall
was
lighter
last
week in
many
areas.
The
heaviest
rains
(>100mm)
were inSatellite
western
Pacificwestern
Nicaragua
while
30-day
deficits
are
mostapparent
apparent
(-50mm
more)
central
Guatemala.
Satellite
estimatedvege
ve
stern Nicaragua
while
30-day
deficits
are
most
(-50mm
orormore)
inincentral
Guatemala.
estimated
facing
regions
of
Nicaragua,
and
flooding
has
been
reported
in
and
around
Managua.
More
moderate
rains
stretched
northward
show
some
of
the
regions
poorest
values
collocated
with
moisture
deficits
in
Guatemala.
It
is
still
early,
but
this
region
be
how some of the regions poorest values collocated with moisture deficits in Guatemala. It is still early, but this region bea
along
the
Pacific
coast
through
El
Salvador
and
southern
Guatemala.
Similar
amounts
of
around
25mm
were
also
observed
along
the
ward.
Otherwise,conditions
conditionslook
lookfavorable
favorabletotoneutral
neutralwith
withthe
theexception
exceptionofofa a
fewlocalized
localized
pockets
less
favorable
condit
ard. Otherwise,
few
pockets
ofof
less
favorable
conditio
Honduras-Nicaragua
border. Elsewhere across the region, less than 25mm of rain was observed, with amounts closer to zero in the
onduras
and
easternNicaragua.
Nicaragua.
duras and
eastern
Petén Province of Guatemala. Rainfall performance in most areas this season has not strayed too far from the average. Thirty-day
rainfall surpluses are most apparent (+100mm or more) in western Nicaragua, while 30-day deficits are most apparent (-50mm or
comingoutlook
outlook
period,precipitation
precipitationmodels
modelssuggest
suggestthat
thatrainfall
rainfallwill
will
generally
suppressed
below
normal
across
the
regi
oming
period,
bebe
generally
suppressed
below
normal
across
the
region
more) in central Guatemala. Satellite-estimated vegetation health indices show some of the region’s poorest conditions collocated
als
arelikely
likely
tobebefound
found
southernGuatemala
Guatemala
andininElEl
Salvador
where
they
could
exceed
25mm.
Broadly,
around
25mm
s are
ininsouthern
Salvador
where
they
could
exceed
25mm.
Broadly,
around
withtomoisture
deficits
in Guatemala.
Otherwise,and
conditions
look
favorable
to neutral
with
the exception
of a few localized
pockets
of 25mm o
pected
throughout
the
rest
of
the
region
cted throughout
the
rest
of
the
region
less favorable conditions in parts of eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.
For the upcoming week, precipitation models suggest that rainfall will be generally below normal across the region. The largest
rainfall totals are likely to be found in southern Guatemala and in El Salvador, where they could exceed 25mm. Broadly, around
Week
Rainfall
Total
andAnomaly
Anomaly
Forecast
(mm)
Week
1 1Rainfall
Total
and
Forecast
(mm)
25mm or less of rain can be expected
throughout
the rest
of the
region.
May
May
18,2016
2016
May
1212– –May
18,
Figure 5: Seven-Day Rainfall Anomaly Forecast (mm)
Figure 4: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm)
Valid: May 12 - 18, 2016
Valid: May 12 - 18, 2016
Figure
Figure1:1:Source
SourceNOAA
NOAA/ CPC
/ CPC
Source: NOAA/CPC
Source: NOAA/CPC
Heavy, flooding rains continued to cause widespread problems across Hispaniola during the last week
During the last week, rainfall was once again above average across many parts of the island. Heavy drenching rains fell over many
areas, with totals exceeding 200mm in several parts of eastern Dominican Republic and southern/northeastern Haiti, according to
TRMM estimates. Observations of 150mm or more were prevalent over a wider area. Flooding issues have been reported in the
ments
about
thisthis
product may
bebe
directed to to
[email protected]
or or
1-301-683-3424.
mments
about
may
[email protected]
1-301-683-3424.
Santoproduct
Domingo,
DRdirected
region and
in many provinces of
Haiti, and swollen rivers are likely an issue for many other parts of the island. The
increase in rainfall has pushed its way into northern Haiti, significantly reducing moisture deficits that still remained. Large 30-day
rainfall surpluses are present across much of Dominican Republic and southern Haiti. Remotely-sensed vegetation indices depict generally favorable conditions across many areas of Hispaniola. Some poor conditions continue to be observed over parts of the Centre,
Artibonite, and Nord-Est departments of Haiti, but improvement is expected in the near future. For the upcoming week, precipitation
models suggest widespread rainfall across Hispaniola. Locally, over 200mm of rain is possible over some already water-logged areas
of central Dominican Republic and Haiti. As such, the potential remains for additional flash flooding, inundated rivers, and mudslides.
ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS
Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and
pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at
this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
4