Tendencias de la Industria de Agregados en el mundo

TENDENCIAS EN LA
INDUSTRIA DE
AGREGADOS PETREOS
Agosto 2011
Perspectiva Global
2006 Production Data
7%
14%
5%
6%
US
Canada & Mexico
4%
Western Europe
China
13%
Japan
16%
Other Asia/Pacific
Latin America
Eastern Europe
6%
Africa/Mid East
29%
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12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
A
•
Global output estimates:
– 21.4bn tonnes in 2006
– 26.8bn tonnes in 2011 (?!)
– 33.4bn tonnes in 2016 (??)
Usage predicted to grow:
– 3.3 tonnes/capita in 2006
– 3.9 tonnes/capita in 2011
– 4.6 tonnes/capita in 2016
E
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•
Source: Freedonia Study “World Construction Aggregates”, Dec 2007
Perspectiva Global
2006 Type of Aggregate
2006 Demand by Market
4%
12%
Non-building
Construction
Sand
34%
29%
Crushed Stone
17%
Non-residential
Building
Gravel
Residential Building
Other
71%
33%
2006 Demand by Application
20%
Concrete
39%
Road Base
Paving Asphalt
17%
Other
• Main breakdowns are:
– Sand & Gravel 63%,
Crushed Stone 33%
– Infrastructure 71%
– Concrete 39%, Roads 41%
24%
Source: Freedonia Study “World Construction Aggregates”, Dec 2007
Una Industria Fragmentada
Heidelberg + Hanson*
Cemex + Rinker
Vulcan + Florida Rock
CRH
Laf arge
Martin Marietta
Holcim
Colas
Tarmac
Italcementi
Rest of Industry
• Top 10 global Aggregates producers account for
(only) about 2.1bn tonnes!
• This is only 10% of world output – meaning that the
Aggregates sector is still relatively fragmented
• Gradual further consolidation likely in years ahead,
as Aggregates attract the major cement players
Source: Freedonia & CRH data
Agregados: Sector Estratégico
• Strategic positioning, similar
to cement (but no Climate
Change issues!)
• Hence strong development
focus of the major players
• Leading to higher acquisition
costs!
• Some analogies with oil?
– Increasingly scarce
resource in developed
economies
– Secure & steady market
for future needs!
Source: JP Morgan, Building Materials, Feb 2008
Unión Europea
 30 Member Countries
 Represents Industry with:
 Sales of ~€20 billion
 Over 3 billion tonnes of
aggregates per year
 24,000 quarries & pits
 16,000 companies
 300,000 employed
(including contractors)
Precio Global de los Agregados
• In developed economies,
(US, UK and Australia)
aggregate price
increases have survived
recessions, but did not
necessarily keep pace
with inflation
Source: JP Morgan, Building Materials, Feb 2008
Precios de los Agregados en la UE
• Significant price increases
achieved up to 2006/2007 in
many countries, particularly
in Central Europe
• Demand increased by 20%
over last 10 years, thanks
probably due to the EU
enlargement!
• Next 10 years?
– Slower in W Europe
– Stronger in C & E Europe
– Residential down,
though Commercial and
Infrastructural up
– Will prices hold up?
Range of National Prices Euro/t
Western Russia
Switzerland
Kazachstan
Ukraine
UK
Norway
Finland
Sweden
France
Germany
Belgium
Netherlands
Poland
Romania
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Hungary
Croatia
Italy
Spain
France
Portugal
Turkey
Slovakia
Albania
Macedonia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Source: “Aggregates Business Europe”, 2007
Producción de Agregados 2009
 Total EU 2009 production was 3.25 billion tonnes
 Overall 51% crushed stone, 39% S&G, 2% marine,
6% recycled and 2% manufactured aggregates
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Producción per Capita
Tonnes/capita 2009
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
 EU average was (only) 5.4t/c in 2009, Colombia 3t/c
 European output fell -11% in 2009, ~-10% in 2010
Comparativo Producción
Tonnage Predictions 2010 v 2009
20%
10%
-10%
-20%
B UK
el
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Fi m
nl
an
P d
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Tu d
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et
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nd
0%
-30%
-40%
-50%
 There are a few “green shoots”, but overall further
economic and tonnage declines in 2010
 Has the EU now reached the bottom of the cycle?
El cemento en España
Producción y PIB percapita
16.0
14.0
Tonnes/capita
 Aggregates
usage
continues to
grow as the
economy
grows
 Growth
needs
aggregates!
Tonnes/Capita v GDP/capita 2009
12.0
Colombia
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
OZ
2.0
0.0
0
20
US
40
€000 GDP/capita
60
80
Proyecciones para los Estados Unidos
Credit: U.S. Geological Survey
Materiales de Demoliciones
Amount of
waste (Mt)
Europe
US
Japan
Construction
and Demolition
Waste (C&DW)
510
317
77
Municipal
Waste
241
228
53
 Global data on recycling is often
based on best estimates
 The recent EU’s Bio-Intelligence
Report did little better
 C&D materials = ~0.9-1.0t/capita
 Better called “materials” not “waste”!
Agregados Reciclados
Recycled Aggs as % National Demand
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
B UK
N el
et g
h iu
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la
G nd
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w la
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en
0%
 Best performers are UK, Belgium & Netherlands
 Overall EU, only 6% of demand is recycled material
 If all countries recycled 100% = ~15% total demand
Reciclaje en los Estados Unidos
La Industria en Colombia
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Unas 120 millones de toneladas en 2010
Más de150 millones proyectadas en 2012
Hoy 60 millones van por cemento
40% de los títulos mineros en el país
Alta informalidad
Sensible antigüedad del parque mecánico
Empresas familiares entrando en la
segunda generación
El crecimiento del cemento en
Colombia
El reciclaje en Colombia
Bogotá, Medellín y Cali: 12
millones de toneladas año
Acceso a los recursos
Planes Nacionales de Agregados
• Finland – Minerals Strategy
• France – “Livre Blanc”, 22
proposals for a sustainable
aggregates industry to 2030
• Germany – founded
“Deutsche Rohstoffagentur)
• Lithuania – Strategy for
Underground Minerals
• Norway – developing
national minerals strategy
• UK – British Geological
Survey coordinates Minerals
& Planning issues
El Plan Nacional de Agregados de
Colombia
Las Alianzas Estratégicas
• UEPG was first industry to sign up to “Countdown
2010” in 2006
• UEPG was first to join the Business & Biodiversity
(B@B) Platform in mid 2010
Buenas Prácticas en Biodiversidad
Accidentes en el sector
 About 30 fatalities in the
European aggregates
industry/year
 About 200 fatalities in global
aggregates industry/year
 Just on 60% of these were
Contractors (20% each were
Employees and Third Parties)
 Most common cause (50%) is
Driving of Mobile Plant
(trucks, loaders, etc)
 Two CSI initiatives adopted
Prevención de Accidentes
 Developing Fatality and
Accident Prevention Best
Practice
 Disseminating through
www.safequarry.com
 Major success with “Safer
by Design Project”, now
being promoted globally
 Working in parallel with the
Australian EMESRT
Safer by Design
BEFORE
AFTER
Estructura de costos de la industria
Typical Cost Breakdown
Env & other
overheads
5%
Depreciation
9%
Drill & blast
15%
Electricity
10%
Contract
w ork
8%
Fuel &
lubricants
5%
Plant hire
13%
Wages
15%
Maintenance
mobile plant
10%
Maintenance
fixed plant
10%
Costos del Transporte
Source: JP Morgan/Martin Marietta data
Algunos Indicadores en Europa
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Total variable cost <€3/t
Labour efficiency >15-20t/mh
Explosives usage <150g/t
Power consumption <3kWh/t
Water consumption <150l/t
Fuel use (quarry) <5kgCO2/t
Fuel use (S&G) <3kgCO2/t
Noise LAeq <55dB(A)/45dB(A)
Vibration PPV <12mm/s
Retos en Grandes Operaciones
• Más productividad requiere inversión en
tecnología, equipos, automatización, tierras,
aseguramiento de reservas
• Obtener las licencias ambiental, social y política
• Construir infraestructura de transporte
• Incremento de precio para recuperar inversiones
y cubrir riesgos
• La nueva unidad de negocio de la industria
cementera
Retos para más operaciones
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Mayores restricciones en el uso del suelo
Mayor presión política, ambiental y social
Obtener las licencias ambiental, social y política
Costo cada día mayor para abrir nuevas
Más estudios de factibilidad y viabilidad
Más tiempo para ver resultados de la inversión
Mayores dificultades logísticas y de transporte
Dificultad para garantizar las economías de escala
Tendencias
• Mayor procesamiento y reprocesamiento para
cumplir especificaciones (e.Transmilenios en
Colombia)
• Los productores de asfalto han subido
especificaciones en los agregados
• Incremento en precios de materias primas e
insumos (e. Llantas, combustibles, lubricantes,
metales, energía….todos!!)
• Salarios altos para calificados y retención de
empleados
Tendencias Especiales
• Dificultad en acceso físico a recursos cercanos
• Disminución de informalidad e ilegalidad
• Unificación normativa en cuanto a
especificaciones
• Competencia fuerte de las autorizaciones
temporales
• Optimización de modos de transporte
• Mejoramiento continuo en HSEQ
• Mejores TR y mejores estudios del sector en
especial los ambientales
• Agua, agregados y cambio climático: El futuro!!
Proyección Gremial
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Programa “una mirada hacia adentro”
Diferenciación frente a la minería
Más y mejor inteligencia de mercados
Solo los mejores afiliados
Tablero de indicadores
Mejoramiento de productividad
Gestión de innovación industrial