Capitalism since 1945 - Bienvenidos a la página de REDECO

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ClEl\CIASECOi'JOitilCAS
Capitalism
s i n c e1 9 4 5
Philip
Armstrong
AndrewGlyn
JohnHarrison
@
BLACI(WELL
Orlot¿ UK & C"ñ[ti¿t
USA
1 A
IIIU \IIUdL
Slowdown
ñ r:er1Jr, .
¡-.,¡ z1r<.:
' e"l"
P¿nJ
'
i
in rhc
l¡.turcol lhc pcriodsinccthcpost$.rboo r coll'Pscd
Thc outst¡ndin|¡
l
his
final
gro$th
ofproducrnrn
in
thc
thc
slowdo*¡
,fCC. in t9l+ hast""n
for an'l
ihc rcrsons
rnd anrlvsing
withdcscribing
partofthebookis conccrncd
of thc g.carsb$¡lowL This ch¡ptcroudincsthc l'cts ol rhe
implic¡tio¡s
and
slowdown craminesthc gcncmlstag¡.tionof producriliw¡nd sing
oi dcwith thc phcnomcnon
in luropc,togcthcr
cspecially
unemployment,
whichpfccilirired
Ir sho$srhir iun.s thcovcr.ccumul¡ri(nr
industrializ¡¡irD.
wis rhcpr uctof ¡ susl¡incd
thcslo$down
Pcriodol r¡pidgrowr¡¡nd hi8h
demandior labour,so ir tooksomctcn ycrrsor so oislo{ grow¡hto rsist thc
r lI s
b . ! h n . {c" ] . " q r rh r L kr " , r i r r L ! r L r h c nr | | r ( r " \ L ñ ' r ' ¡ r ' F t . t h n
c'n' . irll\ irr rl '
unc'rn ¡nri rl:' rcsn,,¡* ¡ iÑiirmrr \¡ih.$lln¡!
\rrlIr n'n\l r\¡,,\(,1l" hr Inrh r'rrrgl\nrr'l1rúl r'clcr(rrrn >J- .
manufurlurinf
Ihc p.r¡tr1t)l(rjcil
cl)mfcrni(Jn
Nlorco!cr.
ol-int.rn¡ri(,rrrl
prcdicrrblc
¡rcssurcs
f¡r fr uctr\cir¡crt crr lcd to ¡¡r
slo\¡growthrnd rc¡luccdopportunities
fragilcfinancialslsrcm Golcrnmcntsbo.roNcdmorcro mainf in
increasingly
to kcc¡ lning srandrnls
thcir indcbtcdncss
incrcxscd
denand,consumcrs
corfonriürs
and b¡rnks¡nd industrirrl
risingdcspitcragninl rcrl incomcs,
ro tñ ro
in
ordcr
lin¡nci¡lm¡nipui¡rn)nj
in evernúrc sophistic.lcd
engagcd
gcneritCrisingprofitsfor sh¡rcholdcrs
Thc basicliFrcs li)r lhc do$do$nrrc sclour irrt¡blc l1 l Ovcrthc\hr)lc
pcriodsincc1973groerhin rhcAO(ishasbccnit h¡rdh morcthrr h¡lf the
'l
(¡bsolurch
rareof thc sirrics¡nd c¡rl! scvcntics.hc slüido$n$usgrc.lrcsr
h¡(l
i)licl)
ccorromics
Il
thc
inJ¡pan¡nd le¿srin rhc USA
a¡d relativcl!)
in
198()
rhcir
otlrpul
prelious
pcriod
rhlr
grownas lisr afrcri97.1¡s in lhc
-lhc
c\t¡r goo(lsind scniccs
wouldh¡rvchccn ncxrl\40 pcr ccnt highc.
ourputol thc USÁ. \n
ro
thc
cntirc
$oul.lh!\c bccnroughlycquil
avaihblc
ch¡PIcrs
is
thc
subscqucnr
!!cslion ol \vhohis
impof¡nt iocusol rhisrnd
gro$rh
sk)wcr
borncthc impicrof rhis
¡¡d rccorcn In
¡\o clclcsol rcccsfion
Thc pcriodsinccl9?3 conr¡riscs
irrrroducL(l
major
rolrntrics
gorcrnmcnrs
in
rhc
rcsponscto thc crash,
234 Capingwthrhe Slowdawñ
Table 14.1 The growlh sLowdow¡
1960-73
USA
96
oEc0
growlh 'ales or
1960-891av€raqe¿nnualoercenlage
1973-89 1973-75 1975 79
26
22
39
21
.'08
0 l
io
5 l
39
1979-82
0 l
09
31
0a
T a b l €1 4 . 2C o n r r b ! l o n st ó A C Cd e ñ a n d1 9 6 0 8 9
t960 73
r973-89
55
21
1973-75
1975-79
lg79 82
1 9 8 2€ 9
21
43
36
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(;cr¡r¡nr' ln
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p
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e q u i v a l c not f 0 . 4 p c r c c n t o f G l ) P r y c r r t o t h c g r o . r r ho f o v c r ¡ l ls p c n d i n gl,c s s
r h ¡ n o n c h a l f o f t h c i m p c r u si I c r c n c d i n r h cs i x t i c s( r a b l c1 4 . 2 ) . ' l ' ¡ cc o l l ¡ p s ci n
thc invcsrmcntratc w¡s concc¡tr¡tcrl in 1974-5 (chnptcr 13), with ¡r Íirrthcr
s h a r pr u n d o w n o f s ( o c k si n 1 9 8 { l - 2 .l l u t c l c n i n t h c r c c o v c r yt c r i o d s r h c
g r o w ¡ ho t f i x c d i n l c s r m c nst a s h c l o wr h a to f t h c s i x t i c sli¡ r c x r m p l c ,i n t h c l o n g
cxpansion
r f t c r 1 9 8 2 ,w h c n t h c r c s a s m u c h t ¡ l h o f a n i n r c s t m c n bt o o n , t h c
coniribution of invcshcnr r() cxpanding dcm¡nd wl¡s distinctly lNcr lhirn
during rhc ¡!cragc of rcccssionsand rccovcricsin rhc sixrici.l
ilhc st.rgnrtion of inlcrmcnt nor onl] inhibitcd m¡rkct grolv¡h, it ¡rlso
'
u n , l ( m , , ¡ ( J . . r l ' L r " f 1 1 , m , u h r i , n . . , n . 1r h , ' , l - r r , " r l ,
)41+
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grosing.in cJrhsu(cccding
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s.\r i
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subs¡¿nridldcclnrc
nrrhcr.rc ol ¡ccnn)ul¡tn)n.'l
hc sro$rhhrc of rhcbosin.ss
capital
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hadfillcn n) 3.2pcr ccDrpcr)c r.)
.y'flJust as thc.rccunrul.ri{,n
r¡te t¡Lcs¡ rvhilcto s,rl,si(lc,
r rccolcrvin
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longtiñc ro lcvcrup rhcg(^rth ol t|e crpir¡lsrock.
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rf¡cr1982di{lnorrc¡chthcincre¡sc
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thcgoltlcnrgc. Il," l'./89thr rarcol gro$1h
ofthc cipit.rl$r)!k rvc¡rgc(l4ó
pcrccn¡rnd $rs srilllltlol thcpcakrarcof5.6pcrccntrc.rchcd
in l9?0.I lcrc,
howclcr,rhcrc\vcrcvcryimpo inl difl¡rcnccs
hd$cc¡ rhcnn¡)! l)l,,uks,
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ritc ovcrthcrlr,ic pLriodl97l-il9
In thc USA rhcb!\i¡rc\srccrnrrlali(D
vas rcry simihrIo rh¡{ ol (hc l9l st thc r¡rc ¡t rhc e|r(lol r¡c 198(ls
$rs
hul thccrrcnrol rhc.sc¡kcnina
of Clb
somosh.rhclosrhtnof rhccirlr sctcntics
rcrunn¡l¡ri(nr
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.ftcr 1973,indcc¡l¡s ¡lrc¡dl .listu$c{l(chrprcr
I l) rhc\ frrkcni¡g
ol.lip,rncsc
$irh rhconsr:r
ol orenccuntLrl.ttio¡.
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accumulation
bcganin thcc¡rl\ 1970s
rrtc\\rs\ Lllbcl()\1
h¡ll ol rhrtc¡l frlc rr thcbcgiIning
1983thc¡rcc¡n¡¡1¡rion
, . t.l^,.
-
u ' t¿ a ' e t k t t
Table 14,3 The ¿cchurarioñ r¿re 1960-89 l¿ler¿geoóóu¿ r.r.€nraoe arowlr r¿resoi
l o p r ¿ r ' r o LI
r960-73 r973-39 r973 r933 r939
r 9 6 07 3 i 9 7 3 A 9
51
2
Figlr€ 14.1 ACC manlt¿ctunng accumllálLon,1973-89 lgrowlh ¡ales, beMoen $e
b e g ' n .n g a n de ¡ d o r l h e y e a r o j g r o s s r x e d c a p ' l as t o c k .p e r c e n l a gceh a . g e r
of thc 1970s.SubscqucDrlv,
hosevcr,thcrch¡s bccn¡norhcrph.ronl0nrl
in!csrnrcri¡
b(¡rD iD Jrprn, lc!cringrhc ,rccL|
)ul¡tir,rr¡ro bxckne¡rlyinro
doublcfigurcs.By 1989 thc büsincsscapitalstockin J¡pan lv¡s nlovingup
to{rrds its 1973growth.Judgedby thh crucialindicaror¡r leasr¡hc crisisol
¡ccumuladon
secmsto havebeensubsta¡¡irlly
su¡mou¡rcdinJáp¡nby ihe rnd
of rhc 19805.
In luropc rheuory is ratherdific.cnrtr¡r^pe. rlcumul,,r,,n
ratewas the eeakestofihc thrce blocswith capiralsrockgrosth dcclining
steadilyfrom the peakrateof57z per centin 1970ro 27, pcr centin lhe mid'boom'hadonlypushcdit backup ro
1980s.
By 1989tbc invcstmcnt
3% pcr
Cn importantgencrd fe¡turc of the patterno[ accuñul¡rionhasbccn rhc
muchweakercapit¡lstockgrowrhin manufaciuring
lhxn in to¡rl busincss.
In
botbEuropcandJáp¡nthe accumulation
ratein manuficruring
¡ftcr 1973has
¡verágedunder b.lf the prc-1971ra¡c.I¡ ¡hc USA1!l:;¡ccumülarion
r¿rcin
manufacturing
in 1989washalfthc prc-1973rrre lDJ.rp3nthc rccoycrlin
manuficruring
rccJmul¡rion
hasbccn¿ lit lc scrl¡r'h¡n in bu.inc\r,.rlrh.,uBl
ihis has still lcft thc c¡pit¡l stockgro$ingaro!¡ndrhrcc rimcs.s far as in
luropc andrwiccas fastas in rhc USA. Bcforc1973rhc ¡ccunrul,rionr c l])
manufacturing
]|as similárto or grcarcrrhrn rhc rccumlrlation
r¡tc clscwhcrci
after1973i¡ $is slowcrandusüallyr lot slowcr.Thc relarivchck ofdin.mis'ü
in manufacturing,the ñost importanrcomponcnrof intcrn¡rionnlrracle,
espccirllybct*ccn thc ACCS, hás bccn a major fcatu.c ol rhc vcars oi
slagnation;
thc rcasonsfor andimplications
oirhis will bc ¡ ¡ccuften¡rhcm. in
this6nalsection
ofthebook.Oncstriking
resühis thattheupswing
oi thcI¡rcr
lq80rbroughr
ürilizrtion
crpaciry
in mrnufrcrunng
nficrnrllrl-r.I in I S¡q n
irspeahlevclof 1973-1;in the mrjor Europe¡ncco¡omies
it ¡rasrctuallv
.',
ráther
u ¡ c r¡highcr.
,g¡cr.
(r..
The maior rlackcning in thc ratc of¡ccumul¡don irnd subscqr¡cnttiilurc ¡ó
F i g ú r €1 4 . 2 A C Cb u s i n e sasc c u ñ L r l a t o 1n 9 7 3 - E 9 l g r o w l€ht e s b e l w e e ñt h e Ó e q n n r ñ g
¿ n de n do l r h ev e ¿ r o ' g r o s sl i x e d . a p i a s l o c k .p e r c e n l ¿ gder a n g e r
regainrhe growthotcapitalachieledin thc sirtiesis ccntr¡lro rhc stign¡tion
rftcr 1973,cspcciallv
in Europe.lt is to ¡hekeymanifcstionsofthis st¡gnrrion
lhatrvcnowturn,bcforccxamining
thc rcasons
for rhcNerkncss
ol inrcstmcnt
S.rr rr.o.)n4 -11€ld ( | v...<r'(,
T a b l e1 4 . 5P r . d r c ! , vr y . 1 9 6 0 8 a { ¿ v e ¡ ¿ ! ¡ ¡r ¡ ú ¿ i J r e r . c . r ¿ ! e
! r o w l r rr a l c s l
St¡gnario¡ of pro(lu.tivity ¡nd rising oncmplovmenr
grc{¡h of output must bc rcflcctcd rn I
lÁs a ma¡ler of iccoun(ing, a slo{cr
'
l
ucr g_"trh ñr prndu(ri\in nr snmc
.lo\vcr crsrl' ñl .np'n)mcnr' r
g
r
'
" r l o l r m t l n ' m n r m ' r \ r' n p r ) n n n g
.,,-¡",.i,o" ¡ he ^tu { lñ''
r¡bour rorcc dccrinci in pararrcl A
oi
rhe
"''i"'. thc s,o$th
:;:;;l;;;,";i
grnqing
I'i1 ' 'n"'i rr'l nn\lJr(J inrñnr{( J"$lv
a.',.1 "."-t¡ ",.""""
^¡ rhcrrh( m¡- "i r\'
i'i"" ':,"J"'¿. ,'J , ' p.''iu 'cni.^ 'rnc s¡v ¿n
;;' r"".ii süncrJ', r'ur(' r'r"" cr grorrh ri'r,c*er'-s'i¿'
;i],'t;;;"
Jrrñrcnrrorm'
j.""'
,il
-'",',i;' ."'ri, . rh,r,,' ¡ ,,rdc-nr'b,acc¡hc'c
is m¡int¡incd¡hcmorc
"i ¿",*;.ti i.* n"¡*"*ncc. Thc bcncrcmplovmcn¡
mr p¿J
f'r rak(-h'
"'J".," ^ i'""* ¡ 'urr(r(.$trhfr 'h¡\r¡rnn\'qú'ncc\
i l ¡ . . ¡ " * " i i ¡ " { , t r , r .t c ^ x ( . . , r cr ¡ , n r ¿ i n ( dI '.r ¿ s i t t n ' l { , r ñ w n' n
p'r' Firstwc
t¡kc-homc
¡* ¡l-" ¡'" bruntis rakcnbv rvorkcrs'
"..¿"1,1"1,u,
t¡p
hecn divided
:;;;t;;
;h; "",""' to which a slorcr growth of ouqrur h¡s
4
!
b c ¡ * e c ¡ c m p l o v m c nar n d t r o ¿ u c t i l i N f t ¡ b l c 1 4
8 9 l a v ' D r a ga€' n ! a p e r c e n l a g e
T a b L e1 4 4 O u l F ü l r r r ! ¡ ú . l v r ! a ' r l € ñ t r o v ñ € ' l l 9 6 0
OECD
r 9 6 07 ¡
r9t3 89
1960.13
r9r3 09
2 2
2 5
4 3
1 8
2a
r96073
r9738!
26
06
t 5
t 9
2A
96
39
a1
82
30
-42
l 3
09
48
2l
2 1
31
1 6
-21
l l
00
Soú¡.e OECO.rr¡óli,t
rii¡rr,..
Ecar'nr' O¡ta'k
r' J \h"lc dll
l hc n,o.rLrli¡,t¡ l('r, r ni ''rl-l!14¿ i' rhrr'f"r lhc A( :(:'
in
I
Ju(linu
tr{"lr(rr\ir}
,1" '1""j."" '" ',jip', grourhhrs l'ccnr"llutr'J ir
\rmc rr'( s hci"rc lcTl
rhc
ar
c'n'nucd
ha'
gnrrh
l-.r1,''-""i
nr*'1.
rnr
i;;i,;,",;i ;;';,\ .i.".a n"',r'¡ ,nr¡rJn.hu'nnr'r '' rrin r u'n¡c
$irh rhc
.'.'""Llt *..f*"'"¡
";;;;"";;;i;,"
'',-"11,,","i:
I h r r l ' i n l h c U S A H n q r h r sc ¿ n h e ¡ ' i o n r i l L d
'rhc
hu'"nc
""..Drnvmc.ic,hc' "n¡ ñrrhrnc\rsccrinn
sri'wr\'
" c' 'm"' rl'cn '"i\t 'l tsc Nl irrnr'\ruLri\rn
Thc productivitYc¡isis
gro"th rftcr 1973 (tabb
\All thc blocs achicvedmuch slosc' productili!
wherc
\+.si. rr'" -" cxceptionis rhe rnznul¡cturinsscciorof rhc USA'
1960 73
1979 B7
4 2
2 2
t 9
1960 73
1973 79
r979 87
5 l
3 2
39
25
06
32
t 2
¡Il
l 5
1 7
a9
s6
38
r 05
p r o d u c t i v i ¡r c b o u n d c d¡ l i c r 1 9 7 9 .I l u r ¡ s L r h s t x n r itr¡lr r o l d r c r r p n i g r i ^ l r h
t h c r cr c p r c s c n r c dt h c c x p a n s i o n
o f t h c c l c c ¡ r o n i c isn ¿ u s t t ( a s t h c o u t | u r o l
c o m p u t i n gp o \ c r r o s c c n o n n o u n y ) ,r r h i l c i n m a n r o r h c r n r ¡ ¡ u l ¡ c r u r i n g
r n d r s r r t .q u rc h r ! r \ n r s r n f n , r n Jr J i , . n r l l l r n nr t , . r r 'l i , , l , . l n , , . r , . '
r e s u l t s( s c c c h . f t c r l 5 ) 1 l h c d c c l i n ci n p r o d u c t i v i t g
y rosih w¡s parricul¡rly
h r s c i n J i p ¡ n ( 5 - 6 p c r c c n r ¡ c r v c a r s l o r v d o r n i n b o r h b u s i n c s s¡ n d
¡ n i n u f i c r u r i ¡ g )i ¡ ! l r . ¡ h c r l c s sc l s c $ ¡ c r c( ¡ b o r r 2 t c r c c n rp ú ¡ , g r ri n l i r r o ¡ c
¡nd US busincss).{-hc usualpancrn was fir prrxlLrcrlvir_a
gr^vth ro slo$ .lo\i
a sm u c h i s , ¡ n d u s u . 1 1r). r h c r ñ o r c ¡ h ¡ n ,r h c r l r c o f g r o $ r ho f H x c dc ¡ f i r r l p c r
* o r k e r ( s c c h g u r c l a . 3 ) n S ow h i l c r h c s e n c r ¡ l f i c r d r b c ¡ i n d r h c p ( x l u c r i l i n
s l o w d o w nw i s t h c d c c l i i r ci n a c c u m u l x ¡ i o ne,l c n r h c i n v c s r m c nrth ¡ r d i d l 1 l k r
p l . c cv i c l d c ds n a l l c rp r o d u c t i l i t vg ¡ i n s . l h i s$ a s d c s p i r es c l c r cm t i o n ¡ l i z x r i o n
u n d c rt h c p r c s s u r co f r i s i n Fu n c n r p b y m l r n\ !r¡ i c h . r l l l i c r c d
r h c r ¡ ¡ d i r i ( n r ¡hl c ¡ r \ \
. n J u . r ' i f 'r . n , ' \ r , ' t r h ( r . l \ . t r c , l. " , r r ' i ' . t
l h c c r c c r s o l p ¡ ) d u c t i v i t )s l o { d o $ ¡ l , a v cb c c n r c l r ¿ h ) v c¡ l l i n , r d r ¡ s r i c
s l o s } ( l o einn r h c g r ó s t h o f l i v i n gs h n d r r i l sl i n a n c c rol u r o l c r r D i n g sJ f o ms . r t
a n di ' r r h c g r o s t h o f s o c i a l c x p c n d i r u r Ic:.i g u r cl 4 . . 1 s h o \ vrsh ¡ r $ o r k Ú s ' l i l i n K
s t a n d ¡ r d s h a l c b c cgnr o * i n g b y o n l y a r o u n dI p c r c c n r p c r l c i r s i n c c l 9 7 l i r h i 5
i s ¡ r u c c ! c n o i J i p a n s h c r c p r o d u c t i l i r ]g r o w r hh ¡ s c o n r i n u c d¡ r ¡i r c q ) c c t i b l c
m t c ( i n c o n r p i r r i s osni t h l o n g - r ü ng r o w r h i n r h c A C C S i f n o t \ i r h l l p l ' s
g o l d c na g cp c r l ¡ r m a n c c ) ¡ T h cg r o w r ho f s o c i a lc r p c n r l i r r r c( h c r l t h ,c d u c ¡ r i o ¡ ,
p c n s i o n sc t c . ) ¡ l s o d c c l l h e da i t c r 1 9 7 3 ¡ n d o v c r t h c w h o l c p c . i o d s o c i i l
e x p c n d n u t cr c c o r d c d l e s s t h a n h á i f i t s p r c v i o u sg r ^ v r h i s i n c e 1 9 8 0 r h c
growth ratc has bccn litdc morc thrn onc-rhi.d th.t ol thc goldcn ¡gc.
pne imponant issuc in rcspcct oi the productivity slovdorvn is shcrhcr
capibl goods production was equally rffectcd. In ficr drc price of invcstnrcnt
g o o d si n t h c O I C D a p p e a r st o h a v cr i s c nn c a . l t I p c r c c n r m o r c s i o q l v r h r n
consumcrgoodsaftcr 1973 (rs comp¿rcdro 7, pcr cenr nore quickll, bdwccn
t] ,,,','"
,rl\
l r r , l r¡ , ! l | , 7 1 ) J¡ 1 , , ,, , r r r r \ r \r l , . ' r 1 , , . , r ¡, ' l , , , 1 r ¡ "(1r ,r r ' , , r , , 1 $r , , l , r ¡ , 1
, , r . , fl , i \ , l , ' f ¡ l i ' r r r r r r r . , , , , r . , ¡ , r, ,r lr l I t , t ) r ¡ l ü " ' l ' * \ r , ú \ l l ' 1 ' l , r '
, , ¡ , r , i l " , r er, ,l ,r l ' , { r " ( , \ , , 1I , r, ,I II r | ' ||| I\ , \ , , ¡ , i r , ( i 1 , ,i \' r l , , LL ' \ r, ' l l ' L rr l
F x ¡ l s r l i r i \ { r , , r l ¡ \ , r h r . , , 1l h \ , r r r | 1 rt1r ¡ 1 r t r . ( l\ i r l i r l ¡ , , i ,r r , r ll i t l l u L 1 , 1
t r r k ¡ , r ' , v s i , , r l , , , , , , r 1 ) r. rr t ) , r r,li r i , ,( \ ( r l ! 1 ¡ i \ )
..\
'lhr ris¡ i,y'r,rr¡rrl,rnrcnr)
.- t\ {l
\--____.'
(,f
i J h c r i s c ¡ r u n c n r t l o ! n r c nhr s c c r l t | i r r hb c c nr h c r ) r 1 ) vs i¡r i l ) l c! x p r c s s i l ) n r h c
s l a g n a ¡ i i )o¡ f) o u r N t ( i i B u r c1 4 . 5 ) .^ n d \ c l , ¡ s d c s c r i h c (rlr h ( ^ c ,r h c r c h ¡ s f o l
bccn ¡nr lrll ofl in thc gulrh r)f cnrpli'\mc'9 \vhcrc thc¡ hr\c the
'l
u n c m p l o \ c ds p r u n gf r r n r i ' l h c c s s c n r i ¡fl i c l s ¡ r c p r c s c ¡ r c di r i h l c 1 4 . 6
Eu'ope Eurooe JáP¿^
llSA
r 9 7 9 - 3 7 1 9 6 0 - 7 3i 9 7 9 3 7 r 9 6 0 7 l
pe'cenláqe gfowlh
M a n u l 3 c l u r n gp r o d Ú c t li v r960-87 laveGge an.lal
u5¡
r q 6 o7 l
Figúre l4 3
P@dudvv
ff
Figu¡e l4 5 !nen]r,loymenl¡ates. 1970 88 lpercent¿se)
Sru¡óéOECDEco'óñ,.Ourrodr
Eu'ope Eutope
LISA
USA
1 9 6 s - 7 3 r 9 7 3 3 6 1 9 6 57 3 1 9 7 33 6
( ¿ v e r a gae" ! a l p e r c e ñ l a g ee r o w l ¡ G r e s r
F i o u r e l 4 4 P r o d u cvl r l Ya n dw e f ¿ r e 1 9 6 5 - 8 6
1es1)socia
ncome
lseeGrv'
olr orearned
ii',"',]-"i." ". *"n"i '.o¡súmprioñ
or
perhead
orrhepopurálion
's
expressed
t
erc
r¡ansre¡s
iii""i.iilrJ i.i;i;.;t"";"n.
i"",'):t :::"'.^"'
Gvñ resl
P'oré'¡on:
oEcD.ieBB.rhe¡u' o¡eorsoc'ar
arso
rs thc
{Thcjlisins irrk in rhc cr¡rnrrv.n r,{ 'hc í.c In uncnr¡1"¡mcnt
wrll
bcklur rfrhc.unrii ofl¿búu¡.E\€n¡ can.unrgrowrh,'l(mplntmcnr
fiircr.'Ihisis cr¡1crh
implv.riscin onc'nplo!mcnr
ifrhc hbourforcccxp¡nds
shcrc
whárh¡rshrppcncd
in thc ACCr l¡ltcr irs¡ wholcsincc197i.Lt¡ropc,
practicallv
hasbcenconccntr¡tcd,
nlifjcs
all thcriscin OECD unemplormcnr
of a fastcrgrowthofpopul¡tion
of $¡rking
thispattern.
Thcr€a combinrtion
age and a slorvcrdecreasein thc proportionof ¡hc populadon\ho are
rcgistcrcd
¡s in rhc labourforcc(hc'participationrare')combincdto sccurc¡l
doublingof the growthratc of thc labourforce.Such a changcwolld havc
244 Ca1tng\^/ttll tt¡c Slowdown
{avet¿geannlar
force and !nempovm€nr r960-89
fable 14.6 Emplovñenl. labolr
percenlagegrowlh rares)
OECD
r960-73
r97389
r960.l3
1 9 7 38 9
1 9 6 07 3
r97389
t960 73
'89
1973
r96073'
r97389
'dri"
,".-'
1",,)',.
1 9
2A
00
07
09
o2
03
-01
02
08
00
13
09
0 l
1 3
03
20
20
00
00
00
00
09
-08
0 l
06
1 2
1 0
o0
01
1 1
00
1.2
l 0
-Q.2
-o.2
03
05
10
1 3
0.3
00
02
a?
basgrown
2pcrccnrpcrycarmorcslowly
thanscruiccs
cmploymcn¡
ir bo¡hrhc
USA ¡nd Jap¡nsi'rcc 197J.tlcrc, howcver,rvelirus on thc crsc ol I,)unrpc,
\|herethc cxtcnrofthh dc-industrializa¡ion
h¡s bccncvcnmorcrclcrc ind (¡s
rable14.7sholvs)hasbcenassociatcd
with añ ovc¡alldcclinc¡r thc numbcrol'
jñbs.
indusrri¿l
T a b l €1 4 . 7O E C D - E ú i o p se é. c t o f a l o l r p ! ip, r o d u cvl ' r yá n de ñ p o f ¡ e n r 1 9 6 0 , 8 7 1 a v e r 6 g e
annuarperce.l¿9eg¡owrh.atesl
1960,73
'ülll¡ili'ffi
r;:;i[Ífi
$ill¡*iii,l'".i;,15i
Tl"lffiIil,ill;:tjilil*;l
rl),1*rl
;iii
l:,:,'i;"r:,i:
I tl;
00
-38
-20
5 l
1 3
27
2 1
4a
28
¡3
25
08
l 9
-t 3
-20
2a
-24
1 2
r 3
a2
1 a
I B
-42
a2
GDP
s.. "r E'¡"n" oi'lóor
1973-87
30
06
2A
sou¡.é 0ECDBFr.rcalS¡ársr.sr960 a7
.A slo\vcrgn^Íh ol indusrriilcntlo\'mcnrrhnnot scniccsrvrsrlrerttr'¡
q.,, J rcrlccr,.n,'r rtr. r.rscr gr,r,rti,,r
,,r r'rr BolJcnrs(. lhfn
fe¿rurc
lh¡n in scniccs,f¡r rhc vohlnrc
ol ourpurof rhc rwo
Produc¡i\i\in induslry
sccrors
$as gro\\'ingrr thc samcspccd.I hc shrrcol industri¡lcnrpl('Imcnrin
lolal cmplolnrcntstill grc$ slighrl!,becauscoi ¡hc \cn tni rundo$n ol
cmploymcnlin agriculturc(á producrof both slow ourpurgroNrh¡nd r¡r'id
produc¡iviqgrowth).J
Afrcr 1973thc situarir)n
changcdin imporrantwa\s.t:i.st, rhc rurdo$n in
agricultural
cnploymcnlc¡scd ro abourhrlf rhc goldcnigc mrc. Whcn job
mrrlctsslnckcncd,
thc rarcat whichl¡bour$rs dr¡$Dout ot ftc3)unlnsidc
slowcddolvn(sccchaptcrll). I,rodudilihgro*rh d¡ckcncdb) rn cqurl
¡mountin bothi'rürsl|_"l.¡rn.l
scniccs.'lhcrcsis, hoñc\cr,¡ muchbiggel
slo$downin ouipurgrosrhin indusrn- ¡ftcr 1973n grc\ ontl h¡ as t¡st is
scNiccs
or¡rpur.'lhcrcsuhwrs rh indLrerirl
cmplourcntf¡lt bl ncrrtv2
pcrccntpcrrc¡r. Sodc-industrializ¡¡ion,
i¡ itslnrcscnse
ot dcctining
shrrcol
cmpbymcnr
in indus¡rv,
bccxmc
¡ rc.rliN.
Asrrgucdnborc,thcdcclinci¡ldrcDümbcr
ot indusrriitj¡)trs
ill Ii¡Í)p( riicr
1973\1¡s¡ rcllccrion
of ils prrtieullrlv
slowgro\frhot indLrsúiil
ou$ur.Orrc
:*rihihi,**
jriinif[r;l.l"ruü
u'lntr
ir
üi{
"Hil"f,:r';'."illlHr
iii:lil,Illi;r;:#i.ti'.1r#Ht;:
".r#i
",,,';*,í:U*:rn*
ji:*:.]il*iil+:i
rr"'*":ll;*
;';;iiü;;;'i;;
$,;;:'
[:;;;'i:li]$ütin:]filill
$:riT}:F!
chrngDc-indurtrja|z¡tionand slructurrl
il*;,lf#iT:*J*;.lxlr$i'i*'i:hT
ili#il:üfi
wnhlttr stowdown
)a6 Captns
.)*
.rtl.n-i"'-
^f -..,,f..n'r.r rs l¡.uroDtin
lur^Ñán :
. \ D l i n ¡ r i n nm i ! . 1 ,htc ¡ d r c l i n ri n n ¡ r t \ l { r s n l m r n r r t r c " r n ' r '
l \'
n
d
u
srn¡h/'ng
d
r
{
f
r
a
m
D
ú
ñ
n
ú
m
n
r
i
n
.
r
c
r
'
i
n
g
J
¡
P
r
¡
n
J
t
r
.
c
d
¡r",lu.-r'
, n c \ L h of factory
:;;
i;;;-.l.ot,", r?). A f¡miliár rory iD EuroPch's bccn
for some
"i.',,;"; ^;" ."."";'" ," ,isinsimports$hilc thishasbccnimportant
i . ' , , , ' " . " : ' . . , " " 1 ' " it*' ,t . r h . U K s u . h J i r r ' ¡ I n - r ' l m r r l c r s I F n o r x n p l i c d r 0
ti"nr Ihc I:l L Fh( lmm $Js
i."'.1-. .'. " 'a¡,,i..l.l,' .i¡ trs ^; nr.rnrrtirrun'
'I'hcscnct crportsrcprtscnlcdn constant
i;iri.l' i', l9z:r t,, s9Z¡illii;n in 1987
cxplain
andthusc¡nnordirccrlv
prcduction
(?ocf ccnt)sh¡rcofm¡nuf¡cturing
thc
was
i¡ct('r
imporunr
Onc
il,J 'r"'" -l,"tr, ot inrlustrirlout¡ui in lrrropc
S
i
\
\
. l l " s ' , , ' i ' l ' , 'il. * ' , " , . , s h i - h ' h r ! r ' ' r ' ( ' t ' J r n " r h ( r ( ' ¡ r n ( ' r i " n ' n c c
, ','"';.1 'r;,'. iNA'nr(nr s,lirTrñt"rrinn¡Ichconrcnrr¡t(Jñn indusrnal
a sln" gro'urhofinvcstncnr\illhold back
",i,¿.'.i''i.".i1""'-.' -¿ ¡uil,1ingsi,
bc ¡hl consumcrs¡rc ll¡all\Jhitti¡g
also
i',¿"t,r¡f *tp* gio'"ttr' lt mav
scniccs(in additionto hÁlingt0
morc
relatilclv
of
rosartlsthc consumption
f¡r cof and
rcl¡tnclrlc¡din81o
grc*,lo*ll
",'."r" f* t¡"- "i."¿ucti\i$
hJsnd Jcr
rl-rr
lhi'
r¡gg's¡'
'r'rJ'
K
rhc
L
for
(
orc
l
l""c'.¡
nr( in. ¡csJ
'
u
s
h
:
'
'
n
u
r
r
r
ni n U C C D
l
"
s
i
n
r
n
m
c
a
r
l
i
h
r
l
c
g
r
c
.
r,'in'.'¡..',¡',"",1
r c f m sr h c U K c i s c m ¡ v n o t b c N p i c r l
l u r i N rh I l o r o p c
i o r t h c \ ! c ¡ k n c s so l i n d u s t r i ¡ o
,rll"rc"c, t¡c pr"ciscir""son
;r¡ i,," "r i"¡i".i,r iobs t'as hid ' nr'ior i¡nucnccon drc c\tcnt of
in
;,,crc*" ln hothJ¡P¡n'nd rhcUSA,\hcrc m¡iofincrcascs
""cmplov"rc¡¡
in
198?
hishr
\1¡s
cmplo)mcnr
"""'rii"i."", "-" "*¡¡cd, ro;l indurrial
it $asmole thanl5 percenr
i¡"n ii' tqZ.¡'i" lr"'p" ,"ith nassuncmplor-r¡cnr
{ith ¡hc severclloss
countrics
thosc
$as
in
i."t.. florco'"., "¡Lin luroPc ir
thar
aDdlrrancc)
Ncrhcrl¡üds
Irchnrl,
(Sp¿in,
lSclgiurn.
UK,
01n 'rstiil iol)s
(sLrch
¡s
ihc
cornrrics
ofrhcsc
somc
grcarcst.
In
sas
,l .i'ir" i" "'*-1t"u."",
fall
was
no
úcrc
f¡c¡
th¡t
thc
<lespirc
rosc
,*mplovmcnt
ÜL ^'i Ñ.t¡"¡i"¡.1
in ic*iccs ".ploy-"nt groqth ar .ll. \\hr shouldrlrt lossof industrialiobs
h¡vcnroreds, Llctsr*)
heir'\ill' ¿rcoften
so'kcr"¡rc rLrl'-rimc'l
I h'esrcatm"iorrnof i'1dLr'rn¿l
ñlrl'c c(onoml
orhcr
sccr'rs
50(Lrñcr i-Ju'Irirlsork ¿ndnn' rrrn\ftr¿hl(rn
concentrared.rn
geographicall!
Moreover,i¡dusrrial emplovnentis oficn
thrs
p.rricul¡r areas.Whcn lhereis a majordcclincin industri¡lcmplovment
throughbut
only
rctirc,
liortcrs
cannorbc achiercdthroughnaturaleastageas
of
vhicii throrvlargcnumbers
plantclosurcs
f"rg"-*"1. *¿r"¡*.¡iand
mlrkct.
miikllc-agcdrvorkcrson to the loc¡l labour
In n.i,iciole" dcclinein industrialcmplormentcanbc offselbv inc¡easing
is
".pln'."ni in se^ices llo\¡evcr, if lhc indurridl dcclincis dccp' this
r
c
\
r
r
L
r
¡
n
r
'
'
n
d
s
h
ñpr'
\
'
a
l
r
h
'
J
J
c
r
'
:
n
n
ú n l i l l h . l l o ' r" e n i L ce m f l )' m r n r . i n
or
c'onomi
rhc
rround
Lnrrñrml)
is nonul¿tion
b¿.cdanJ sprc¿dtclrrnch
¿"i"i¿'.' "" incnmc'ro rn¿r,r g'n$' lessin ¿rcr"l r¡l'ins indurr'¿l
.rirr.'*""r. I' rf¡-rf^rc h.r lirrrid p"'nrrrl fnr "rf'c'rinLgc'gr¡phicallv
manyofrhc rcs scn'icciobsale
conccntratcd
iob lossesin indusrry'fi'lorcovcr,
rtmcn ¿raNnbackintolhe
br
married
fafl-limc, andarc frcqucntlyoccupicd
¡'labour forcc.lt is for thcscrcasonsthatIossof indusrrirljobsh¡s pt¡vcdsuch
¡n impof¡n¡ rolc in thc riscin uncmployñcnr.
iuorcolcr,sinccnr.¡ rrc nrcrc
dependent
on industr;aljobs
thanwom€n,
rhcdcclinc
¡r indusü;¡t
cmpbymcnr
hada particularlylargeeffecron maleemployncnr.
Wooen's and mcn's employment
Since1973women\ cmploymenr
h¡s beengrowingmuchfasrrrlhan mcn's.
Similartrcndsahoapplicddurinsthcsoldcnagc(rhoush
not in JapaD
wh0rc
themassive
rundownofagriculturcreduccdwomen,smcasurcd
particjpatbnin
ihe labour force),bur rhe discrepancy
increascdafrer 1973,as thc cascof
Europeillustr¡tesparticularl!sharply(rable14.8).The reasonwasrharsery;ccs
employmentcontinued ro increaserapidtt shite industriatcmploymcnr
collapsed.
Sincearoundtwo-thirdsof women,snon-asricul¡u¡st
cmptoimcnr
wa¡ in senic€sin 1973,while a slighrmajoriryof mcn werc in iDilusrry,rhc
collapse
in industridemployncnthit mcn muchharder.
So men'scmploymenr
fell¡fier 1973,whitcwomcn,s
aciuay roscir I pcr
cenr pcr ye¡r, which wasAr¡,r rhan hcforc I97J. Dcs¡irr rhis, rvonrcn's
unemploymenr
roscfafer thanmen's_
The cxpl¡na¡ionis th¡r wonrcncnrcfe.l
Table14.8 OECD-€urope wómen s añd men s employñen! 1960 87
láverageannu¡r
perc6ñlageg¡ówt¡ fatesl
t960-73
r973-87
02
1 9 6 07 3
r973-87
0a
t 6
08
06
or
rs60-73
r973-87
1 9 6 47 3
197387
03
a2
1 l
-l5
1 9 6 47 3
20
I L
-a¡
1 9 6 47 3
0 l
D d a ¡ o ¡ u f , e m p o y ñr e rde r r o ó v e r á q é ¿ r ó u a t cnhpaeiroce¿ i G q e
6 ñ p r o y ñ se¡ r e , ú y r @ m ú r n e s D a r á
t o rr o l ae ñ o o y m e ri r u o ! ¿ l r r r r u r s
sour.eOECDsdro,.¿/S¡á¡n,¿s
03
03
00
03
0 l
03
-t 5
-t 2
09
1 2
03
00
248 Copngi:th theSlawdówn
uncmplovwomen'smeasurcd
rhelabourforcemuchfas¡erafte¡l973 So ehile
in'hidden
üll
¿
subr¿nti¡l
w¡s
al'o
rhcre
consrder¡l-lr,
$a'
rhc
men
*orl
For
p¡irr
Pos'ion
*omen
r."k
"- ;";r .o,e
;.;;1,':.";i
and probabrvsone incrcascin hidden
; ;;;; "nemprovmcnt
;;i.;f;;;
$orkcrsiook earlvrctiremcnt'
industrial
m¡Lc
"t reJu¡dant
'".^¡"1-"*
Profits
ofrccession
offrc6tabilitvrftcr 1973broadlvfolloryldthephascs
Thc coursc
prñrir
rJrcduring
rhe
of
{frc-rhcnnse-d^c
dcicrihed
,^.i"-*'¿" i",¡
anoüer'
lqTq
br
recotcD
]óii-i i'"" .1""".'r¡r, rhcre$¡s 'omcmodesr
second
Ihc
suroundins
irrrduringthc rc(ession
it;;;;:iiJ.;.';.
as
{ccs
rhc
For
orrccorcrv
bpi"C".ii" i".," ''". r;io"cdbv"náhcrpcnod
¿nd
lc\d'
irs
lqTl
'csaincd
nn'
ii ¡""r""'i"i,.,""'*'";i,"rc in lqsl h"d'r;ll
asto Ine
bclow5om(clucs
proñrrJlewasslillonc-qu¿rlcr
rhcm¿¡ufJcruring
in rJbhra q shkh rhoq(
¡nabsis
lhc
irom
i""." src¡ned
;;",;;';;;;i'";
rcrl q¡gcs ¿ndIne
i'o* .h,ncc. :n rhc plrrcrnñf úrnqrhol fr'du('ivirv
Pr)rit¡bilitv
"ró.i-."i1,"1 '",¡, havcconnibutcdro thc shirtsin business
rv I gosiáj I;1"!ü -*a po*tus"
bctrr¡ Acc busnesspro¡rabrr
rabre14.eFácrors
r 9 6 5 7 3 r 9 ? 3 - 3 7 r 9 7 3 - 7 5 r 9 7 5 - 7 9 r 9 7 93 2 1 9 3 2 - 3 7
t r l L ¿ b a up
, rodúcrviv
1?rFé dve consuñer thces
1 3 l F e á r i n c o ñ el ls) 1 2 )
L4lRealwaqes
l5rWase share14) ,al
32
03
30
35
0u
i5
05
wagesharcto fallslighllrandthc proñtsharcto cdgeupsards.Ilut thel did not
rhesumciendv
slowlyto maint¡inthcprofl¡ratcasrheltcndin thcrc¡l1)l]tpurcapilal
ratiodcteriorated.
Wilhin ¡hc wholepcriodsince1973thcrc havcbcc¡ri'nporrantch¡ngcsin
pro6ttrends.'fhc fall in profirabili¡tduringthc 1974-5 rcccrsionwis much
morescvcrerhánduring 1979-82.This \las borhbccauscthc prcht squcczc
in rhe fonncr pcriodand becauscthc ourput c¡tiral r¡rio
'I
d€teriorrted
morc. he mainrcasonfor thc lessintenscprohtsqucczc$rs th¡r
w¡s
fcll aftcr1979bu( licptrisingaftcr1973.In ncirhcrsi¡ua¡ir)n
realwagcs
'l
prolitrbilitr. his wrs
therc'.oom' for re¡l w¡gc incrcrscswithoursqucczing
productiviry
becausc
stagrr¡tcd(¡frcr 1979cspcci¡lly)andbcciuscrhcrcscrc
rapidincreascs
ir thc rclatilepriccofconsumergoods.The fall in thc ouqn¡rwith . vcn
ourputcoincidcd
caphalratiowassharper
aftcr1973.sstagnant
highrlte of accunulation.Exccssc.p.cit] bu;h up at ¡ muchlist$ tc ¡hin
wasprcceeding
'norcurrilr. I:igrrc
afierI979 bl,whichtimc accumulation
14.6illustrarcsthc relaxationof prcssureon thc proñr shrrc ¡1lter1979 l¡)
doBcd down.
Europeas rcalwascincrcascs
Ie'"o*r"v
flfiixr"-**'Nl.*-"-*
!n""*"0*
ffi*"n".n"-
25
23
09
_o r
lcháñgen pete^ra{]eP'ns Par -0.1
tTlRealóulpúrcapúaLúro _06
lBrRearve caPrarcosrs
rr
l s l O l r p u r - c ¿ pl icaú' r e ñf!l . e s r
-24
l i o l P ¡ o r f, a
r r s6 l + r 9 )
n p€rcenl¿qe
1cháñ9e
!of,c p¿ I -050
-013
Satae ánd é'ptanaran see appe¡du p 351
Thc firs¡ ¡so colunns of the tablccomparethc prc-1973pcriodof profrt
süuc.zcsirh Ih{ po'r-lq?J)cah r' r qholc Thc proñrrrrf lcll muchlc*
Toinr¡er \cd \lrh"ugh
in rl . .cc.ndocn"d b\ rroundr) l Dcrc'nr¡8c
rr¡ ,11.
two pcriods'(he sharp
the
r¡ie
ovcr
samc
rhc
fell
at
r"i;o
rhc ourput-c"pital
,¡" lirst pcriotlwashnhcd¡nd sli8hdyrclcrscd¡ftcr 1973
"."rit ,"*-",,f
'¡"i"*
isl¡ *" rvagcshaicroscsrcadilvns rcal *agcs src* f¡rcr than'rc¡l
rlt¡ is iabour protluctiviryadjustcd for tbc rclativc risc oi
¡.nr"r'.
norc sloelvfor the
grcwsufÁciendv
priccs.Aftcr 1973rcalwagcs
consumei
1 9 7 37 5
1!79-¡2
F i g u f 61 4 . 6 € u r o p e a ¡w a g e s h a r e .1 9 7 3 5 a n d 1 9 7 9 - 8 21 ¡ v : r ¡ l e a n n ú ¿pr e r c e n r a ! e
Jusi as the fall in profiiabilitywasIessafter 1979,so tbc risein p.ofitrbilit!
w¡s gr€aterin tie erTJansion
xfter 1982th¡n duringthe .ecoveryafter 1975.
Againthc maine),?lan¡tion
is theconsiderably
slowergro\'ú oireal\vagcs¡fie.
1982,growing
at lessthanI perccnrperyerror h¡lfihc prccofrhc i975-9
pedod.A¡ áddirionalfáctorwasthát th¿pricc ófcápitálgoodsgrc* rcl¡tilcly
!l',rhIhcs¡owdown
250 CóPdrg
^ut¡ür-cifn¿lruri"r' ri" 'rmngl"rnJ
Joqlr ¡lrrr lq82 "¡'¡.¡ ¡¡¡nrrd hc
.T;llT,[l[;l
li:'i¿t::.',""';:,i'1:]l'ü",.'"."-'
lJ,.;:'ff:
:i:iJ"li
blnesAsrrh
*-'¡'li't i'""¡' in ¡hcdrir'crcnr
'hc lell lcvcl
hadrcs¿incd
"iLii '"'? '" i' 'n t"' ""ssrnd m rnurrcrlrins
"iiil':ll;;.il'
-'
:;J""l:l
;rTiTi
ffi
i,l;*llrux l"'lf;l1;
Ii:Iil1'l'ilii'li
lruljil;llllrl"ill¡il.lfirl""lrj':;:l
rccovcrl slncc rhc¡
T a b e l 4 . l O P r ó l , rl ¿ r e s 1 9 6 0 e T l p e r c e n l a g e s l
acc
1973
t987
r987¡973
1973
r987
r987/1973
1 95
t 54
t 36
070
088
1 99
132
112
056
085
205
1 60
1 63
080
1A2
348
246
r 57
045
064
291
219
15I
055
073
364
224
1 54
042
070
214
536
388
l4I
069
096
421
038
rY i6ls65lorlheaccs
" l h e p e ¿ k y e du d e r L n e d ¡ s r h e v . d b e l o r c L h c a u s r a ' n e dndee' nco o r l ¿ b
ro'
r¡pan
ind USA. 1960 ror EuroDcrrtl i9r0
r 4 . 7 M a n u l a c ' !n
r q p r o l , r á r e s1 9 7 3 8 7 l p e r c e ñ l ¡ n .
'rcscn_canny ol labttut'
barg¡iñhg posi¡ion- prcciscl)thc functionof thc
explaincdby iUar:\.What is morc surprisingis thc f,rilurcol profir¡bili$ Io
rnd grorvth
ofoutpur
rccovcr
inJap¿n.
Dcspitcthcslo$erratcof¡ccumularion
tha¡ befo.c 1973,thc demandior l¡bour hasbccn mainrtincdat ¡ tcn high
crcccdcd
In themiddlcol1989thcratioofjoboflcrsto racancics
r¡rein Japan.
I for thc 6rsrtime sincc1974. fhcrc \lis ¡ slightlyslo$cl gr^fth rrrc of rhc
i)r
popul.tion
of*orkingagcthin in thc l9ó0s(scc¡¡blcI4.ó)¡rndthcrcscncs
wcrc
nruch
diniirrislled
l)cspiLe
libourwhichcouldbc drawnoutof rsricuhurc
vcryligh¡
incrc¡scsin somcn'spart¡cip¡lñnnrprid sork thcl¡bournurkclra¡rs
h¡mPcrcd
bv
$trs
ilso
sclcrcly
vagcs
continucd
to
risc.
hrsincss
and rc¡l
prctcction¡nd housnrgshott¡gc,*hich pushcdlhc
facrorssuchasagricultural
goodsup ¿ndin(rcascd
the-nonc\q¿gcincr.r.c\nc.(s\rn
costofconsumcr
powfrg'o$ing.
forworlcrsrn lccp rhcirpur,ihrsrng
l*ün*ü**íqq*tt":','.:H';,;*li*",r'':w
:;#;;;;;;;;r,;;;J"a
in b'.rn",, gningio *orkcrsirrhc' wcreroafforq
of consumer
c""q'r:':b,1,fill^il^1,.::l';::i
'¡i"g *l"tl'" prices
."p;¿iy
l1':?5?
ml;*.i:"x"'""ml:,;,il:T'iili::ii'ii5:.T'#:
P¡ofit¡bility and accumulation
ir
produced
¡er un;tol capiral
''l.l l*i1",.¿ falli5S3g9¡nr of.ourput
In broad terms thcrc is ¡ paralleldownwardshili in ac.umul¡¡ion¡rnd
profitabiliqior botbmanufacturing
xndrhelvholcbusiness
seclor(6grres11.8
and 14.9) Puning ¡ogetherthe paitcrns for profit¡bility with thosc ior
accumuhrion
for thc individualbbcs c¡rlicr vicldsan immtdi¡tc pir¡dor. In
Japan,whcrc lhc rare of pro6t lcll ñost and recoveredlcast,lhc rnle ol
accumulation
hasrccovercdmor rnd is not vcry frr bcl¡)wthc 1973rrtc ln
;:
.::ii:$T::
*::tii"l"mn:*'';'i,]::"lrl,:i',::'i:ü':'ff
c¡r¡ci¡
raiinal'o 'mp'o'cJr' cYces<
'i,'.'"'ñ' .L*" ""J 't. "uDLr'capiL¿l
-i':I..l.'::|':T,i::,
in
factorto thcprontrecovcry
maiorcontributory
'work€Is
in
undermining
unemployment
f*oi. it". ü..n trt. i.pactof mass
!
¡
¡
!
a
!
F i g ! r e1 4 . 1 0 l l n l e dS t a r ebsu s ¡ e s sa c c ! m u L a raDn¡dp r o l rr ¿ r . s1 9 6 08 9
pÓll rales 196089
F i s u r e1 4 . 8 A C Cb u s ' n e s¿s c c l m u á l o na n d
havcby and
and massunemplovment
Duropc,$hcrc rhc ycarsof srag:ration
tcntrtilc
!crY
bccn
h¡s
i.e" r"rtur"Ap-nuuitlcv, thc rcco!eryof¡ccumularion
rric¡rcs
' i i " ' i " i i 14.10.
r ' " i . r "ll.ll
" " ¡ ' i "rnd
r t h 14.12).
isprobablvlicsinthclactthar'despitcitsshdrl
.¡
still.to hNc bccn hishcr th¡¡ clscwherc
r,li,;h; p;;;; ':'" in Japanappcars
nf
mu'r hc ren¡¡ri'cbi,auscof rhc (lilh'ul$ making
,,¡",sh conclu*r"ns
qhcrc
'
'31(ulation
f
mcrhoJ'
counrrics
."."'"il'"". "i o-c"ulhn r\r^s:
-'"''
;i¡ ,';'',s" ,," In businc*rr¡sbccnhishcrthJni¡ rhc
i:;clq;l
rró ¡cr ccnrinJ¡pan
c'rimare(
, ompJr¡brc
,hc-mo'r
;,\;;;;;;",",;".;"h
and
ó pcr ccnt in ihe
the
usA
and
ii ;.. ."nt in cernanv
;:;;;;;ii;
iñ Japanthanrn
stablc
morc
bccn
ñuch
h¡s
.,rrc
thc p.otit
Üi;Ñ:;;-"',
14,11Japa¡ese
bus¡ess
accuñul¿l,o.
andFror
I ralls 96089
Fiqure
3
¡
!
!
profu rates' 1960
Flg!r. 14.9 ACC ma¡úlactu¡¡q accÚm!al on añd
89
lncrl)r
in srrbilizing
c¡rtirilitr
$hichis in imt)(trri¡r
mostofd)corlrcrcountrics,
14.7).
conñdence
ligurc
Gec
AII our daraare lbr pre-taxproli¡s,but laxarionol pfo6¡scerainly cunnol
explainthe disparatcbchaviourof accunülarion.It is truc that ihc rrte ol
corporatetaxÍion scemsto h¡vc bcenlowcr in Jap.n thin in úc USA ¡nd
Germany,
but not thanin thc UK. Moreover,therc{trc no cutsin corporrtt
thorc
tax in Japanwhich could hclp ¡o c\Tl¡in thc upswiñgin accumul¡rioD
(table11.11).
It is clearúat thc powerfülupswingio thc rnteol !.c mul,tion in J.p¡n it
rheendofthe 1980s- al abouithrecdmesthc ratein rheUSA or DuropeGce
ofproli¡abilityAlicr
by thebcháviour
t¡blc 14.3)- cannorbe sholly €xplained
a breathinBspaccin thc larer 1970sand carly l9tiOsthc strongtcndcncy
E
t
[,ezs
Nl,ei?
Eliess
u5a
EuroPé
F i g u r e1 4 1 5 S h a r ep r c e s . 1 9 6 0 - 8 8l r € l ¿ l r v leo ¡ e p a c e m e nvt a l u eo r
1 9 6 0= 1 0 0 )
wherc
oiproduc¡ion(sccchaptcrl5). But outsidcmanul¡cturing,
organiz¡rion
is cvcnhighcrdesphemodcrategro*lh in rhc home
rhc rateof accumulat'on
hxs a subst¡ntially
markci,ir secmslikcly rh¡t the boom in .eál investment
andso on) Wnh a muchlowcrrate
characlc.(propcrtyinvcstmcnt
spccularile
of prolir from producdre&tivit) than previously,in m¡nufacturingand
of largec¡pital
scnices,the cxplan¡tionfor high sharepriccsh cxpect¡tions
suchasof6ccbloclsin ccntralTokyoA
hcldby companics,
ganrson thc assers
'l
f¡ll in sharcpriccsin okyoof somc30 pcr cenrin rhc lirst quirtcr of 1990
sLrggcrs
rhit rhis¡ar¡iculrrbubblemayh¡vc burst
ttrc Lú"u¡i! (lu Augusr 1990) cnrphrsizcclthc significancco| shaky
propcrt!,nd sh¡rc m¡rkctsl
¿ndshrrcs
.l¡p'n\ hugccomNrcirlb.rts úc clughlin thcspiral.It Propcr.r
l1!ll,v)nril¡hrtl,r\...A.lrt.icsccrrsh.dúldbeQmc¡Sldbnlonc,¡sandvhcnit
cirhc.f¡rccsloc¡l hdnLsto e¡t dlcir lc¡dingor, hcavcnliúbid,ir b¡nlGst¡n rLrgo
bur l:ighrofrhc world\ tc¡ biEgerbants¡rcJap¡nescirhcyaccounlfor .lmor
t 0 ' 2 ,o f i l l c r x + h o r d c r b a n ll o ¡ n sa n d¡ s i z c d b cl ch u n ko f d o m c r i cl c n d i ¡ gi n
,\,¡cricr ¡¡d Brir.in. l hc súddcnlossól th¡r {ould be disastrous
'li,
md.r,Jut¡n's comnrcrci,lbrnks look inprcgnablcBu¡ ¡hcy hav¿hadc
lo¡ns düecrlyto domcric Propc¡tyrnd consrrlclron,
20'l. of rhcir outs¡¿nding
is i¡clud€d Wo6e,lhen abilitvro mairrain
andaruund30',l,iiindircct cxposure
comProniscwhen
crdi lines dcpendson rhc rockmárkcr.In ¿ scandalous
for Ibternational
w€rc
underlh€
Bánk
rulcs
¡8reed
capilal-adeqú.c)
intcrn.rioñal
banksafc ¡llorcd to coúnr45% of unrealised
Scrrlcmcnhin Ráslc,Jápánese
gainsor shúc inverncnts¡s crpital.Lverv¡imelhc Nikkei'sfall makesthose
s¡inssndlhr, rhebantl capit.lshrinksand só núr rhcirlending
ls rhcrc a link bc¡vccn rhcsc rarhcr di\ersc indicatorsol nnrnci¡l
vulnerabiliq- highcrgorernmcntdcbrratios,incrc¡scdconsumcrborrowing,
wcalcrcorpor¡tcbalanc€shccts,troublcdñn¡ncialinrirutions,rc¡l in\csr¡rcn¡
dishrtcd bv spcculativc
considcrations?
Thc commonthreadis thrt thc! ill
developed,
ahhoughccrrainlyto r diffc.entcxtcnrin diffcrcnicountrics,i| a
situ¡tionwhcre¡he cxistingprofi¡abiliry
of producrivcinvcstmcnr
h.d lrl10n,
andconfidc¡ccin thc sustfincdgrowthncccssary
to ¡raintainarrdincrcasc(hir
pro6tabiliry
hadbeencrodcd.ln thissenscrheturbulcnccofthc l5 or so ycars
prior io thc rccoveryoi the la¡cr I980s,the reflcctionof ¡hc basicforccsol'
over¡ccumulition,
has lcli a dccp imprint on rhc lin¡ncialrruc¡urcs of rhc
ACCs.