SIMULATION OF THE MANAGEMENT MODEL SYSTEM WITH

ANÁLISIS Y MODELACIÓN DE SISTEMAS DE RECURSOS HÍDRICOS
CON EL SOFTWARE AQUATOOL – CURSO ONLINE
SIMULATION OF THE MANAGEMENT MODEL
SYSTEM WITH WATER RESOURCES AQUATOOL
ANÁLISIS Y MODELACIÓN DE SISTEMAS DE RECURSOS HÍDRICOS
CON EL SOFTWARE AQUATOOL – CURSO ONLINE
Index
1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1
2. Simulation ..................................................................................................................... 1
3. Analysis of results ......................................................................................................... 3
4. Calibration of model ..................................................................................................... 5
Simulación de la gestión de un modelo de un sistema de recursos hídricos con AQUATOOL
ANÁLISIS Y MODELACIÓN DE SISTEMAS DE RECURSOS HÍDRICOS
CON EL SOFTWARE AQUATOOL – CURSO ONLINE
1. Introduction
In this exercise will show the process to follow to simulate management model created
in the previous year on the system of water resources Mayu river. Once simulated
managing the different results obtained from it are discussed. Finally, the student is
meant different ways to adjust the management system to the specific objectives likely
to have the system analyzed.
For this, we will start AQUATOOL model created in the previous year. For this reason
must open it from the project file (Figure 1) or from the interface AQUATOOL the File /
Open menu (Figure 2).
Figure 1: Mode 1 AQUATOOL open a project already created. Open File.
Figure 2: Mode 2 AQUATOOL open a project already created. Open from AQUATOOL.
2. Simulation
After opening the project, you are ready to make a simulation of system management
to then see the results and verify that all these data have been properly included in the
model.
For the simulation, under the "Models" menu select the option: SimGes / Run SIMGES
as shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3: Calling the simulation model.
The program leads to the page parameter; Figure 4 is simulation model if it is to make
any changes in terms of titles or years of simulation. In this case we must modify the
initial year and the number of years of the simulation according to appear in this
Figure.
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Figure 4: Parameters Tab SIMGES model.
If we click on the OK button the program makes the call to the next screen SIMGES
module execution appearing.
Figure 5: Run screen model SIMGES.
Once the label "END PROCESS" is displayed, you can press the "OK" button to close the
simulation screen and return to the working screen.
If for any reason, an error message appeared would have to consult the file SIMGES
errors. This can be done from the View / Results SimGes / Incident Simulation menu as
shown in Figure 6.
Figure 6: File access error simulation.
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If the simulation has been completed successfully, you should edit the file "Eco Data"
(Figure 7) to review and validate all data that have been introduced to the program.
This file contains a formatted and tagged data that has been copied to the program.
Figure 7: File access Eco Data simulation.
3. Analysis of results
Once completed and validated simulation data, you can proceed to analyze the results.
To do this it has several resources. Although the main are twofold. The first is an
overview of all the simulation you have in "Summary of results" (Figure 8).
Figure 8: File access summary results of the simulation.
And the second is the tool for graphical analysis of results by items. To access the
graphical results must change the edit mode data access mode results. You only have
to click where it says "Results" on the toolbar.
Figure 9: Choice between modes of editing or viewing results.
At this point, the access to any element of the scheme through a "double-click" the
results will be shown activated Manager graphics.
For example, if you select the dam we can see what appears in Figure 10.
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Figure 10: Manager charts and graphs of results of the reservoir.
Since the graphics display manager can also be obtained by numerical results
tabulated button ( ). In the case of the reservoir will take us to the screen shown in
Figure 11.
Figure 11: Numerical results of the reservoir.
Graphics manager has different options for exporting graphics or data to different
formats so it encourages the user to check the manual EGRAF for more knowledge
about this.
If you select the supply demand Villa Down Figure that presents graphics manager it is
to supply shortages.
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Figure 12: Results shown for the demands.
Access to the numeric portion provides a table with the same values as the graph and
another table with summaries of results of collateral. See Figure 12.
4. Calibration of model
The above presents simulation results that are the result of management rules that are
predefined in the program (in addition to the physical data of the system).
These management rules may or may not be appropriate for the purposes of our
study. Then it will review the data and simulation results, to calibrate the model and to
ensure that the simulations reflect the proper management of the basin.
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4.1. Rules of base management model
The calculation model solves the problem of water allocation through the monthly
optimization of an objective function (see the program SIMGES manual) that
automatically sets the following priorities in the allocation of water.
1. Ecological demands (minimum flow in pipes and minimum volume in reservoirs).
2. Consumptive demands.
3. Accumulate reserves in reservoirs.
4. System outputs.
This means that the design meets every month all water needs for the next month
keeping only the excess water.
Also, when you do not have enough water to meet all demands, distributes the deficit
between them according to the number of user-defined priority for shots (Figure 13).
Figure 13: Priority number in the shots.
These properties can be arbitrarily changed by the user via different mechanisms to
make the model reflects the desired management rules.
4.2. Management rules in the basin
It is assumed that the objectives in the management of the basin are as follows.
1. Demand Villa Abajo is a priority on agricultural demand and the transfer to Villa
Outside.
2. The transfer to Villa Outside will be satisfied if it does not cause problems in
providing Villa Abajo.
3. Agricultural proceedings must be restricted if necessary to ensure the urban
demand.
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4.3. Demand collateral Villa Down
As seen in Figure 12, the initial model presents values deficit demand Villa Down
inadmissible for urban supply. This may be normal, but you should analyze the
functioning of the model to know what you are doing and improve it if necessary.
The first question to answer is:
Why this situation occurs in the model?
The answer to this question may be that the model is equally distributing water among
the three demands as to prepare the initial model did not care priority number of the
shots was paid.
If the priorities of the shots is changed, giving values according to the above criteria
(Table 1) and re-simulate observed that the security has improved somewhat, but not
enough (Figure 14).
Table 1: Priority numbers for claims
Demand
Priority
DU. Villa Abajo
DU. Villa Afuera
1
2
DA. El Naranjo
3
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1940-1941
1942-1943
1944-1945
1946-1947
1948-1949
1950-1951
1952-1953
1954-1955
1956-1957
1958-1959
1960-1961
1962-1963
1964-1965
1966-1967
1968-1969
1970-1971
1972-1973
1974-1975
1976-1977
1978-1979
1980-1981
1982-1983
1984-1985
1986-1987
1988-1989
1990-1991
1992-1993
1994-1995
1996-1997
1998-1999
Hm3
Comparación de déficit anual para la demanda de Villa Abajo
Sin Prioridades
Con Prioridades
Figure 14: Difference in the deficit in demand Villa Down calculated setting priorities in the
decision.
If the results of development of the reservoir (Figure 10) is reviewed is that its
resources nearly every simulated year are exhausted. This is because the set of all
claims almost always exceeds system resources, so in early summer reservoir
resources are depleted, and there is no water to meet urban demand in late summer.
Therefore, to improve the security of urban demand is necessary to reduce the supply
from the reservoir to the agricultural demand.
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4.4. Calculation of the maximum guarantee for urban demand
The calculation of the guarantee of urban demand Villa Abajo if river water for Villa
Outside or reservoir for agricultural demand is not removed would be the best
guarantee that you might expect in this lawsuit.
To calculate it, the easiest option is to null the other two demands, so all resources be
allocated to urban demand.
The program has a right to treat such conditions is what the program documentation
called "alarm indicators-restraint" or "rules of operation" resource. How to use them
are briefly described in the following section. But since this tool includes various forms
of definition and use it has preferred to devote the next year to explain in detail the
management of these rules of operation in the program.
Another method to include operating rules in the model, which can be more complex
to understand is altering the basic priorities for water allocation by altering the lens
you are using the mathematical program to determine water allocations function. This
requires a deeper understanding operation of this algorithm, which is explained in the
user manual SIMGES program.
Then, as an example of the possibilities offered by this method, it described how it
could limit the allocation of water to some demands without affecting the reserves in
the reservoir. If you find it confusing, you should move to the next section describes a
more direct (but less accurate) way to simulate the operating rules mentioned.
To cancel the supply from the reservoir to agricultural demand will penalize the
passage of water through line downstream of the dam. For this purpose an arbitrary
cost is driving fixed. We are going to record driving and choose the "user-defined cost"
option. We choose a cost of 850 units (Figure 15). A higher value would also produce
the same effect.
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Figure 15: Including a user-selected cost in ducting.
To cancel the supply demand Outside Villa could proceed in the same manner
including a conduit between the river and making the demand. But, not to alter the
graph model numbers take priority, which is given a value of 170 (Figure 16) is used.
Figure 16: New priority for decision-demand Villa Outside.
Understand the choice of this post is important and, for this, the user manual should
be consulted SIMGES. As a brief explanation is given in Table 2. Approximate values for
cost optimization placing water in different parts of the model.
Tabla 2: Approximate value of the target for delivery of a hm3 of water in different elements
function.
Element
Minimum flow
Minimum reservoir
Demand
Reservoir (as areas)
Approximate value of 1 hm3 in the objective function
2000
1700
1500 – 5 * nº priority
700, 1000, 1100
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According to these values, providing a lawsuit with a number of normal priority has a
benefit of approximately 1500 units, while leaving the water in the reservoir gives you
a profit of at least 700 units.
In the first case has a cost of 850 units to the passage of water through an arc that
reaches agricultural demand. This reduces the benefit of supplying this demand [1500850 = 650] is less than the benefit of leaving it in the reservoir (700), so the water will
remain in the reservoir.
In the second case the benefit of demand [1500-5 * 170 = 650] is reduced so the result
is the same as in the first case.
After including these costs back to simulate and improve checks. To do this we see that
the maximum percentages of deficits at 1, 2 and 10 years have been reduced to figures
of 13.1, 19.1 and 21.6 respectively. And deficit occurs only on 2 occasions (Figure 17).
Figure 17: Minimum estimated deficit of urban demand Villa Abajo.
The management, however, produces high deficits in the rest of demand that could be
corrected without significant damage on the priority demand. The following Figure
shows the supplies to every demand (29.8 million m3/year about 120 to Villa Outside
and 56.24 million m3/year of 84.2 to agricultural demand). And an average value of
outputs of the system (Figure 19) of 315.3 million m3/year (for a total contribution of
168.9 million m3/year upstream of the dam's 282.3 million m3/year downstream).
To see these results graphically, you should select the right type of results, showing
"year" and update (Figure 18 and Figure 19).
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Figure 18: The annual supply and demand Naranjero Villa Outside.
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Figure 19: Monthly output of the system in stage with maximum restrictions (hm3/month).
To see the numerical values once the corresponding series added, show the summary
table and go to the end of this table (Figure 20).
Figure 20: Consultation means annual results.
4.5. Simulation of operating rules
The last point of the exercise is to calculate a rule management to improve supply to
transfer without hurting demand Villa Abajo.
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For the initial situation has been chosen as values transfer to Villa Outside the average
of recent years. In this aparatado you want to investigate a general management time
where the transfer is unknown.
First, the demand values are changed assuming the possibility of a maximum transfer.
To do this it is assumed that the demand for Villa Outside has a constant value of 10
Hm3 monthly. With this change alone shows that the supply increases to transfer 47.3
million m3 / year without hurting demand Villa Abajo. Land supply to demand just is
reduced to 53.68 million m3 / year.
This exercise is to get a rule to increase the supply operation to the transfer, even
reducing the reserves in the reservoir, but trying to make this reduction does not
significantly impair the guarantee of Villa Abajo. This operating rules must be based on
data from the basin that can be known a priori. These are mainly the volume of
reserves in the reservoir or contributions steps in recent months. In this case it will be
calculated a rule based operating reserves reservoir.
To model this kind of operating rules is available for a specific item that defines rules of
operation in detail and apply to different situations (Figure 21). This will be used in the
following year.
Figure 21: Creating access to operating rules.
However, since this example is simple rule will simulate the operation using data from
"target volume" of the reservoir. To do this is to change the number of priority
demand for the benefit of this in the objective function is favorable to the request if
the reservoir is above its target volume and that it is not if it is below. That is,
according to Table 2, getting a value benefit to the demand for between 700 and 1000
units, achieved for example with a number of priority 120 to the power demand of
Villa Outside [1500-5 * 120 = 900].
Thus the value defined as target volume (Vobj) in the reservoir shall be construed as a
condition for allowing the transfer. If the reservoir is above transfer is allowed, and if it
is not allowed below.
In the initial data worth Vobj = 10 hm3 for every month of the year is set. various tests
by moving up or down this threshold to deduce its consequences on the guarantees of
the system (Table 3) will be made.
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Table 3: Results of supply for different thresholds reserves (values in hm3).
Volume
threshold
Supply Villa Outside
Max deficit UTAH Villa Down
Supply in El
Naranjo
System
outputs
Vmin=1
10
68.14
65.2
48%, 57%, 128.5%
27.7%, 35.5%,78%
50.8
50.9
285.5
286.8
20
Vmax
61.2
47.3
16.5%, 22.6%, 43.6%
13%, 19.2%, 21.63%
51.0
53.7
289.6
300.32
A step to define a rule such operation would make a variable monthly curve, this has
the complication that we have 12 variables to test combinations multiply
exponentially. One way to reduce the number of combinations is set as a variable
volume in one or two months and calculate the remaining months by interpolation.
The student should perform several tests to estimate an appropriate rule, justifying
and comparing results.
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