THE IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS IN LATIN AMERICA ON ECONOMIC GROWTH _'+(!-)28,#!)',(%!$*/)('%(3!'%!'!/'5%(!24!,#(!=&(),5)'!&20$/1d !"##$%&'()*+,#! &)(,(*3(! &)29')! 0'! )(0'/$J*! 3(! 0'%! +')$'90(%! K5(!&0'*,('!0'!$3('@!59$/'*32!/2.2!(%/(*')$2! #$%,J)$/2!(0!'*,(%!1!3(%&5M%!3(!><'!=&(),5)'?@! 0'! 3(*2.$*'3'! 0$9()'0$A'/$J*! 3(0! ! /2.()/$2! K5(!,2.2!05-')!3(%&5M%!3(!02%!2/#(*,'%!1!(*! 02%!$*$/$2%!3(!02%!*2+(*,'%:!H0!)(%50,'32!3(!0'!$*6 +(%,$-'/$J*!)('0$A'3'!3(.2%,)J!K5(!0'!'&(),5)'! *2! (%! (0! N*$/2! 4'/,2)! 3(,().$*'*,(! 3(0! /)(6 /$.$(*,2! (/2*J.$/2! 3(! 02%! &'I%(%! (%,53$'32%! UYMIRIWVI¾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½RH6 $*-%!24!(F$%,$*-!0$,()',5)(!2*!,#(!,2&$/:! G%$*-! '!%$*-0(!.('%5)(!24!,)'3(!2&(**(%%!,2-(,#()! 8$,#!2,#()!(F&0'*',2)1!+')$'90(%@! ,#$%!&'&()! JEMPXSGSR½VQXLIGSQQSRZMI[XLEXSTIR6 *(%%!$%!'%%2/$',(3!8$,#!-)28,#: ! G%'*32!/2.2!N*$/'!.(3$3'!0'!'&()6 ,5)'! 3(0! /2.()/$2! O5*,2! /2*! 2,)'%! +')$'90(%! )(&)(%(*,',$+'%@!(0!&)(%(*,(!'),I/502!&)(,(*3(! 3(9',$)! ')-5.(*,',$+'.(*,(! /2.2! 0'! $3('! -(*()'0$A'3'!3(!'&(),5)'!(%,P!%$(*32!)(0'/$26 *'3'!/2*!(0!4'/,2)!3(!/)(/$.$(*,2: -)./0%1# ! ")'3(!Q&(**(%%@!R)28,#@!<',$*!=.()$/'@! <$9()'0$A',$2*: ()#*+), ! ! H0!&)(%(*,(!'),I/502!$*+(%,$-'!(.&I)$6 GEQIRXI PE MHIE UYI E½VQE GSQS YR EY6 QIRXS IR PSW ¾YNSW HIP GSQIVGMS I\XIVMSV )(%50,'32! 3(! 5*'! 3(%)(-50'/$J*! (*! (0! .()6 /'32!$*,()*'/$2*'0!3(!&)235/,2%@!!#'!(%,$.56 0'32!(0!3(%'))2002!(/2*J.$/2@!#(/#2!K5(!*2! (%! 3(0! ,232! 29+$2:! ! L2)! (002! %(! (%,53$')'! (0! /'%2!(%&(/$'0!3(!=.M)$/'!<',$*'!(*!32*3(!%(! 2&3&"%&#4'3&5) ! =&(),5)'!/2.()/$'0@!S)(/$.$(*,2@!=.M6 )$/'!<',$*'@!<$9()'0$A'/$J*: 6789!STUV!WTV!XTYV!QTTV!QZ[! !\=!$*!H/2*2.$/%@!]&(/$'0$A',$2*!$*!^(+(02&.(*,!H/2*2.$/%@!_'*3(0%#`-%720'*@!R2,#(*95)-!G*$+()%$,1@!]8(3(*:!a=!$*!H/2*2.$/%!'*3!a5%$*(%%! =3.$*$%,)',$2*@!_'*3(0%#`-%27'*@!R2,#(*95)-!G*$+()%$,1@!]8(3(*:!S2))(2!(0(/,)J*$/2b!4'**1:8$-(92)*c#-5%:-5:%( 7#$)4&%$:'*304)#4;&%$)41)430#4%)#*3$&10#40"$),<10#4;0%43&4&*$0%&4),4#*4<,5)#$<=&'<>,4;&%&4$)#<#41)4+&)#$%:&?4()'<"<104)34@41)4A*,<041)[email protected] &;%0"&104)34D41)4A*3<041)4@BCB? !"# !23+45678!+9:+!;7<3+963==3>>+4=+?7!4=+753;487+9=+389=9548+@;9A!2 ! "#$%! &'&()! (*'+$,(%! (+&$)$-'../! 0#(! -'1%'.! (22(-0%! 32! 0#(! 4$5(./! '53&0(5! 2)((! 0)'5(! &3.$-/! 3,! 6)340#7!8(! 1%(! -)3%%9 -31,0)/! 5'0'! 03! $,:(%0$6'0(! 0#$%! )(.'0$3,%#$&! 23)!;'0$,!<+()$-'7! =/!310.$,$,6!',5!>1(%0$3,9 MRK XLI WYTTSWIH FIRI½GMEP IJJIGXW SJ XVEHI .$?()'.$@'0$3,A! 0#$%! &'&()! '55%! 03! 0#(! 3,639 $,6! 5(?'0(! '?310! 0#(! )(.'0$3,%#$&! ?(04((,! 0)'5(! 3&(,,(%%! ',5! (-3,3+$-! 6)340#7!"#$%! 5$%-1%%$3,! $%! '! -(,0)'.! $%%1(! $,! 0#(! .$0()'01)(! ',5! +'-)3(-3,3+$-! )(%(')-#! 3,! (-3,3+$-! 5(:(.3&+(,07! 8#$.(! 0#()(! $%! '! +'$,%0)('+! &()-(&0$3,!0#'0!0#$%!.$,B!$%!&3%$0$:(A! '.%3!-3,9 %$%0(,0!4$0#!+',/!(-3,3+$-!+35(.%A! 0#(!)(9 WYPXWSJXLMWTETIVHSRSXGSR½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½GMIRXVI9 %31)-(!'..3-'0$3,A!%.34./!6)34$,6!$,51%0)/!',5! SXLIV TVSFPIQW MR XLI IGSRSQ] EW HI½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½XEFPI½VQW8LIWI½VQW [MPPEPWS½RHMXGSWXP]XSVIWXVYGXYVI GEYWMRK XLIQSWXTVS½XEFPI½VQWXSWXE]MRFYWMRIWW PSTUVA!EFFCWXFQ7!S,./!0#(!+3%0!&)351-0$:(! ½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½VQW XLEX QEOI XVEHI PMFIVEPM^EXMSR FIRI½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½VQWMRXLIHSQIWXMGQEVOIX[SVOEWER MRGIRXMZIJSV½VQWXSVEXMSREPM^IERHMRGVIEWI &)351-0$:$0/!PI2)(,-#9V':$%A!XDDDWMOQ7 ! <! -3+&')$%3,! 32! 0#(! 5(:(.3&+(,0! 3:()! MN! /(')%! 4$0#! )(%&(-0! 03! 0#(! .(:(.! 32! 3&(,,(%%!23)!EO!)(&)(%(,0'0$:(!;'0$,!<+()$9 -',! -31,0)$(%! $%! +'5(7! I3)! &)(-$%$3,! ',5! $,! 3)5()! 03! 5)'4! %3+(! &.'1%$?.(! -3,-.1%$3,%! ! ='%(5!3,!0#(!'?3:(!%0'0(+(,0%A! 4(! ½RH VIEWSR XS FIPMIZI XLEX XVEHI STIRRIWW :$'!&)351-0$:$0/!6'$,%A!%0$+1.'0(%!\V]!6)340#7! Y,!0#$%!%(-0$3,A!4(!&)(%(,0!0#(!-#',,(.%!4#$-#! 0#$%! -'1%'.! )(.'0$3,%#$&! #'%! ?((,! ')61(5! 03! !"! 5'116$7(8#9-01 !"#$% &'#"()'*% +,-% .&% #/0(1&0% ,2% 3'/45/#% 426% )#/4&/#%74#,/&8%,2%,95"#&0%&'4&%342%/2'423/% TVSHYGXMZMX] SJ HSQIWXMG ½VQW -X EPPS[W JSV EQSVIIJ½GMIRXYWISJMRTYXWXLVSYKLRI[ &/3'2"1"),/0%426%/:(,59/2&%/9;/66/6%,2%&'/% ,95"#&/6%,25(&0*%<',0%!48=%/>5"#&0%4#/%/23"(#? 4)/6% ,26,#/3&18% ;8% #/6(3,2)% 5#"6(3&,"2% 3"0&0% +@#/23'?A47,0=% BCCCDEF-*%G0%9/2&,"2/6%4;"7/=% MMJSVIMKRGSQTIXMXMSRJSVGIWHSQIWXMG½VQW 426%,26(0&#,/0%&"%#/6(3/%0143$%426%(0/%,25(&0% QSVIIJ½GMIRXP]*IVRERHIW*YVXLIV? 9"#/=% +,,,-% )#"!&'% 342% ;/% )/2/#4&/6% &'#"()'% 1/4#2,2)%;8%6",2)%H#"9%/>5"#&,2)%426%+,7-%&/3'? 2"1")8%05,11?"7/#%/HH/3&0%"#,),24&,2)%H#"9%&#46/% 1,;/#41,I4&,"2=% 948%,23#/40/%5#"6(3&,7,&8*% J5/2? RIWWGEREPWSMRGVIEWI½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½GMIRX /3"2"9/&#,3%9"6/1,2)%426%!/4$%&'/"#/&,341% H"(264&,"20=% 0(3'% 40% U6!4#60% +QMMV-*% W8% (0? ,2)% &!"% 9/40(#/0% "H% &#46/% "5/22/00=%X42,$? $484Y0%+BCCB-%3#"00?3"(2&#8%/0&,94&,"20%0'"!% 2"%6,#/3&%1,2$%;/&!//2%"5/22/00%426%)#"!&'=% !',3'%410"%0&426%,2%3"2&#40&%&"%&'/%3"99"2% ½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½X%RHIVWWSR BCCCDM-*% G2"&'/#% 314,9% ,0% &'4&%N)""6O% &#46/% 5"1,3,/0% #/6(3/% 9"2"5"1,0&,3% ,23/2&,7/0% 426% WMRGIQSRSTSPMIWEVIEWSYVGISJMRIJ½GMIRG] XVEHI STIRRIWW [MPP MQTVSZI IJ½GMIRG] ERH #4,0/%"(&5(&* !"#$#%#&' % P',1/%/4#1,/#%/95,#,341%3#"00?3"(2? &#8% ,27/0&,)4&,"20% "2% &'/% &"5,3% '47/% ;//2% QSWXP] EJ½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`U% #/5#/0/2&0% &'/% #/14&,7/% 0,I/% "H% 3"(2&#8% ,% &"% &'/% 14#)/0&% !"# !"#$%&'()!$*+$!,(-#$*'#..#//$%.$0(!%.$(&#,%)($*.$#)*.*&%)$1,*2!" !"#$#%&'($')*!'+,%-.!/'($')*(+'",+!'01,2(.3'4*!' 5,),6+!)' "#$+(+)+' #7' 89' "#:$)1(!+' 7#1' ;*("*' ;!' ;(..' !+)(%,)!' "1#++6"#:$)1&' 1!<1!++(#$+' SRE½ZI]IEVFEWMWJVSQXS XLEX (+/' !(<*)'+!-,1,)!'1!<1!++(#$+3' =$')*(+'%,$$!1/' GLERKIW MR GSIJ½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¾YIRGIHF]SXL6 !1'-#.("&'%!,+:1!+'),F!$'+($"!')1,5!'1!7#1%' ;,+' ,""#%-,$(!5' ?&' #)*!1' 1!.,)!5' 1!7#1%+/' !3<3' +),?.!' %,"1#!"#$#%("' -#.("&/' +)1#$<!1' VYPI SJ PE[ PIWW VIRXWIIOMRK ERH MR¾S[ MR ($>!+)%!$)'5:!')#'%#1!'#-!$'?#15!1+3'4*(+' [E]MXQE]FIHMJ½GYPXXSHMWIRXERKPIXLIWTI6 GM½G IJJIGX SJ XVEHI STIRRIWW JVSQ XLI ZEWX ,%#:$)' #7' -#.()(",.' ,$5' !"#$#%("' 1!7#1%+' (%-.!%!$)!53 !"#$$#%%&'4*!1!'(+'$#'+($<.!'%!,+:1!',>,(6 .,?.!')#',++!++')*!'5!<1!!'#7'#-!$$!++'($',$' !"#$#%&3' @!1!/' ($+)!,5'#7':+($<'),1(77'1!5:"6 )(#$',$'#:)"#%!6?,+!5'%!,+:1!':+!5/')*,)'(+/' (%-#1)+',$5'!A-#1)+',+','+*,1!'#7'BCD/(3!3E 4*!'($7#1%,)(#$';,+'),F!$'71#%'GH'I#%6 )1,5!'C,),?,+! ()*+,-&'+(4KVS[XLMWHI½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½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“Apertura”,!1'!/)2/32)('&!)#!)4'%)5'!4)23'!$0! (+'! 6%'7).'%(3%)! )#&! 6$*(7).'%(3%)! $.'#7 RIWW8LI ]IEVW EVI GPEWWM½IHEW“Pre- apertura”! 1+,2'! (+'!86$*(7).'%(3%)9! ,*! /$#*,7 &'%'&!(+'!:')%*!;<7<=>!?+'!%'*32(!,*!*+$1#!,#! ?)@2'!A>B> )*+,&'('' '(%))%**&#G%"#2%*&H'"&!9%&("%&#)$&('*!D#(%"!3"#&(%"+'$*&01&+).'-%&2"'3( '4566577&-586 (=5D845=EF=8 (?7ED845=EF=8 9:;<5=&+6>?@5 BC>BD!E F;><H!E -:AAB5&+6>?@5 FF>CA!E FG>AG!E ,?C5=&+6>?@5 AG>;<!E AC>=;!E Source: UN Comtrade, The World Bank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ource: UN Comtrade ;ISFWIVZIGYVVIRXEGGSYRXHI½GMXW +,-. /,01. 012. 3,42-. 567. 012. 897732. 96:,82. ;-,<=>.+,-./,01.012.=-2?.567.=,>0.5=2-0<-2. =2-9,7"[email protected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tandard errors are given in parentheses. *10 percent level of significance, **5 percent level of significance, ***1 percent level of significance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¾S[W MR KSSHW ERH ($&0+%$(9!C'?$0$&;! ?$!(#'147!$<5$%*!.!4.&2$! 5'(+*+0$! %'&&$4.*+',! /$*?$$,! *&.7$! 0.41$(! .,7!4+/$&.4!*&.7$!5'4+%6!D$929!*.&+88!&$71%*+',E;! ?#+%#!%'147!/$!.,!+,7+%.*'&!'8!*#$!8.%*!*#.*! *#$6! .&$! &'12#46! -$.(1&+,2! *#$! (.-$! *#+,29! 8LIVIJSVI EGGSVHMRK XS XLMW TSWWMFPI ¾E[ ',$!%.,,'*!&$F$%*!*#$!5'((+/+4+*6!*#.*!'5$,) ,$((!-$.(1&$7!7+88$&$,*46!?+44!&$(14*!+,!8.(*$&! $%','-+%!2&'?*#9!G'%1(+,2!',!*#$!$-5+&+%.4! ½RHMRKW SJ XLI GYVVIRX VIKVIWWMSR LS[IZIV [I½RHEWMKRM½GERXIJJIGXSRKVS[XLSRP]JSV *#$!6$.&!HIJK9! =$&'! +,! ($0$,! '1*! '8! $+2#*! %.($(9! L,$! 5'() (+/+4+*6!+(!*#.*!*#$!-$%#.,+(-(!*#&'12#!?#+%#! KEMRWJVSQXVEHIMR¾YIRGIKVS[XL[SVO[MXL .!4.2;! #$,%$;! ?$!?+44!,'*!'/($&0$!*#$!$88$%*(! '8!.,!+,%&$.($!+,!*&.7$!'5$,,$((!1,*+4!('-$! 6$.&(!.8*$&9 ! "#$! $88$%*! '8! +,0$(*-$,*;! ',! *#$! '*#$&! #.,7;! +(! -'&$! .%%1&.*$46! $<54.+,$7! /6! *#$!-'7$4;!.4*#'12#!+*!7'$(!',46!.5546!*'!*#$! B&$).5$&*1&.!5$&+'79! G&'-!*#$!&$(14*(!+,!*#$! %&'(()($%*+',(!./'0$;! ?$!%.,!7&.?!*#$!%',) %41(+',! *#.*! ',46! +,! *?'! '1*! '8! ($0$,! %.($(;! XLI RYPP L]TSXLIWMW XLEX XLI GSIJ½GMIRX SJ *#$!0.&+./4$!:MNOP"!+(!$31.4!*'!=$&'!%.,!/$! VINIGXIH -R EX E SRI TIVGIRX WMKRM½) %.,%$! 4$0$4! ?$! #.0$! *#.*! .,! +,%&$.($! +,! *#$! +,0$(*-$,*!+,7$<!+(!.(('%+.*$7!?+*#!.!&+($!/6! K9QRS!+,!@AB!2&'?*#9! P+-+4.&46;! *#$!&$4.*+',) (#+5!5&'0$7!*'!/$!(*&',2!.4('!*$,!6$.&(!4.*$&! MRGSRXVMFYXMRKXSEVMWIEXE½ZI TIVGIRXWMKRM½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½GMIRXWEVIWYFWXERXMEPP]LMKLIVGSQTEVIH XSXLISTIRRIWWGSIJ½GMIRXW KMZMRKVMWIXSE LMKLIVFIRI½GMEPMQTEGXSRKVS[XL -XMWNYWXM) ½IHXSWE]XLEXXLMWGERFIHYIXSPIWWGSQTPM) %.*$7!%#.,,$4(!*#&'12#!?#+%#!%.5+*.4!8'&-.) *+',!.88$%*(!$%','-+%!5$&8'&-.,%$9!C'?$0$&;! +,!(+<!'1*!'8!$+2#*!%.($(!?$!%.,,'*!&$F$%*!*#$! L]TSXLIWMW XLEX XLI MRZIWXQIRX GSIJ½GMIRX MW WMKRM½GERXP]HMJJIVIRXJVSQ^IVS 8LIIWXMQEXIMWWMKRM½GERXSRP]EXE *$,!5$&%$,*!4$0$4!.,7!+*!7'$(!,'*!$0$,!#.0$! *#$! $<5$%*$7! (+2,9! G1&*#$&-'&$;! *#$&$! +(! .! PEVKI ZEVMEXMSR SZIVEPP MR XLI GSIJ½GMIRX IW) *+-.*$(! .,7! *#$! %#.,2$! '8! (+2,! +(! 8&$31$,*9! :*! ($$-(! *#.*! *#$! ,$2.*+0$! &$4.*+',(#+5! *#.*!! $<+(*$7! /$*?$$,! 2&'?*#! .,7! '5$,,$((! *1&,$7!+,*'!.!5'(+*+0$!',$!8&'-!)IK!.,7!',) [EVH,S[IZIVWMRGIGSIJ½GMIRXWEVIRSXWXE) XMWXMGEPP]WMKRM½GERXXLIWTIGYPEXMSRERHMRXIV) 5&$*.*+',!'8!(1%#!0.&+.*+',!+(!+&&$4$0.,*9!"#$! &$2&$((+',! &$(14*(! '/*.+,$7! 7'! ,'*! (155'&*! *#$!*#$'&6!*#.*!%'1,*&+$(!?+*#!.!-'&$!'5$,! *&.7$! &$2+-$! 8.&$7! /$**$&! *#.,! *#'($! ?#'! ?$&$! -'&$! +,?.&7)'&+$,*$7! .,7! ?$! 8.+4! *'! &$F$%*!*#$!,144!#65'*#$(+(!*#.*!*#$!'5$,,$((! GSIJ½GMIRX MW MRWMKRM½GERXP] HMJJIVIRX JVSQ ! T(! 8'&! *#$! ($%',7! $31.*+',! +,! *#$! (6(*$-;!',$!&$%'2,+=$(!*#.*!*#$&$!+(!4+**4$!$0+) 7$,%$! *#.*! (122$(*(! *#.*! 2&'?*#! #.(! .! 5'(+) *+0$!$88$%*!',!'5$,,$((9!C'?$0$&;!*#$6!.&$!*'! EPEVKIVI\XIRXWMKRM½GERXERHXLIGSIJ½GMIRX #.(! .,! .55&$%+./46! #+2#$&! $(*+-.*$7! 0.41$! *#.,!*#$!$(*+-.*$7!&$0$&($!$88$%*9!L,46!71&+,2! *#$!6$.&(!HIIK!.,7!QKKK!?$!&$5'&*!.,!$(*+) -.*$7!$88$%*!',!'5$,,$((!'8!R9RIU!.,7!S9IUK! VIWTIGXMZIP]EXE½ZITIVGIRXWMKRM½GERGIPIZIP "#+(!5+$%$!'8!$0+7$,%$!(122$(*(!*#.*!%'1,*&+$(! !"# !"#$%&'()!$*+$!,(-#$*'#..#//$%.$0(!%.$(&#,%)($*.$#)*.*&%)$1,*2!" !"#!$%!&'%&()*%(*)($+,-*)*./!).)*%(*!$)-!&0 1!&'2) -+) 3!'+4!) 4+$!) +#!&) -*.&) 56+,!$0 ($+,%&()!'+&+4%!57)8+,!/!$9)+&62)%&)-,+)+:-) +;)!%(*-)'.5!59)'.&)+&!)$!<!'-)-*!)&:66)*2#+-*0 IWMWXLEX+(4KVS[XLMWMRWMKRM½GERXP]HMJJIVIRX JVSQ ^IVS8LI PEVKI RIKEXMZI GSIJ½GMIRX JSV =>>?)/%5%36!);+$)-*!)+35!$/!$)%&)-*!)#.&!6)%5).) GPIEV SYXPMIV ,S[IZIV MX MW LMKLP] MRWMKRM½GERX .&1)-*:5)%$$!6!/.&-);+$)-*!)1%5':55%+&9),*%'*)%5) ,*2)&+).--!&-%+&),%66)3!)#.%1)-+)%-7) %59) -*!)!"%5-!&'!)+;).)#+5%-%/!)!;;!'-)+;)-$.1!) +#!&&!55) +&) STA) ($+,-*7) U&/!5-4!&-) .#0 #!.$5)-+)3!).)4+$!)$!.6%5-%')1!-!$4%&.&-)!"0 #6.%&%&()($+,-*):&1!$)#$+-!'-%+&%547)U&)4+5-) +;)-*!)'.5!5)-*!)*2#+-*!5!5)4.1!)%&)-*!)3!0 KMRRMRKSJXLIGLETXIVGERRSXFIGSR½VQIH V&62) '+:&-$2) 5%D!) 3!*./!5) %&) -*!) !"#!'-!1) 4.&&!$9) *./%&() .) &!(.-%/!) %4#.'-) +&) -$.1!) +#!&&!55):&-%6)-*!)-%4!)+;)-*!)(!&!$.6)-$.1!) 6%3!$.6%D.-%+&).;-!$)-*.-)'+:&-$2)5%D!)'!.5!5)-+) QEXXIV;LIRXIWXMRKJSVNSMRXWMKRM½GERGIJSV !.'*)4+1!6):5%&()-*!)'*%)5H:.$!)1%5-$%3:-%+&) ,!)+3-.%&)-*!)$!5:6-)-*.-)-*!)!H:.-%+&),%-*) KVS[XLEWXLIHITIRHIRXZEVMEFPIMWWMKRM½GERX SR E ½ZI TIVGIRX WMKRM½GERGI PIZIP MR XLVII +:-)+;)!%(*-)'.5!57)@*!)+#!&&!55)!H:.-%+&)%5) WMKRM½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½GERX &!(.-%/!) $!6.-%+&5*%#) ,%-*) +#!&&!55) ;+$) -*!) A$!0.#!$-:$.) #!$%+19) -*.-) %59) 1:$%&() -*!) #$!0 5!&'!)+;)#$+-!'-%+&%5-)%1!.57)@*%5)%5)'+&5%5-!&-) ,%-*)-*!)&+-%+&)-*.-)6.$(!$)!'+&+4%!5)*./!).) ($!.-!$)%&-!$!5-)%&)#$+-!'-%&()-*!%$)+,&)%&1:50 -$27)B+5-)&+-.3629)C$.D%6).5)-*!)6.$(!5-)!'+&+0 42)#6.2!1).&)%4#+$-.&-)$+6!)%&)1!-!$4%&%&() XLIWI ½RHMRKW FIMRK E WXVSRK EHZSGEXI SJ #$+-!'-%+&%54)1:$%&()-*%5)#!$%+17)@*!).3$:#-) '*.&(!) '.4!) !"#!'-!162) %&) EFF>) ,*!$!) &+) PSRKIV E WXEXMWXMGEPP] WMKRM½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½GMIRG] -R E VMWI MR XLI PIZIP +;) +#!&&!55) '$!.-!5) .) 6.$(!) !;;!'-) +&) -*!) '+:&-$2K5)-$.1!)%&1!"9)%4#62%&().)1!'$!.5!)+;) >7LMN7)O:$-*!$4+$!9)-*%5)$!6.-%+&5*%#)%5)*%(*62) WMKRM½GERXERHXLIWEQIMWETTPMGEFPIXSXLI 2!.$) EFP?7) G!) +35!$/!) .) 56%(*-) %&'$!.5!) %&) XLI GSIJ½GMIRX JSV XLI ]IEV JSV [LMGL ,!)$!#+$-).&)!5-%4.-!1)!;;!'-)+;)0>7LFN7)@*!) VIPEXMSRWLMT FIGSQIW PIWW WMKRM½GERX JSV XLI ]IEVW ERH FIMRK WMKRM½GERX SRP] .-)-*!)E>)#!$'!&-)6!/!67)@*!)4!.5:$!1)!;;!'-) %5) &!(.-%/!) .&1) %5) !5-%4.-!1) -+) 0>7QQQ) .&1) 0>7MLN) $!5#!'-%/!627)@*!5!) $!5:6-5) .$!) %&) 6%&!) ,%-*) -*!) !"#!'-.-%+&5) 1!$%/!1) ;$+4) -*!+$2) #$!5!&-!1)#$!/%+:5627)R:35!H:!&-629)%-)4:5-)3!) -*.-)6.$(!$)!'+&+4%!5),!$!)6!55)+#!&)1:$%&() TVSXIGXMSRMWQ[LMGLGSR½VQWSYVXLISV] !"#$%&'("#) ) @*!)#.#!$)*.5)1$.,&):#+&)-*!)H:!50 -%+&),*!-*!$)-$.1!)+#!&&!55)*.5)3!!&).)1$%0 /%&();.'-+$)3!*%&1)!'+&+4%')($+,-*)%&)W.-%&) I4!$%'.&) '+:&-$%!57) G!) +3-.%&) &+) '6!.$0':-) .&5,!$) -+) -*%5) H:!5-%+&) .&1) ,!) '.&&+-) 5.2) -*.-)%-)%5)!"'6:5%/!62)(++1)+$)3.1)-+)3!)+#!&)%&) +$1!$)-+).--.%&)($+,-*7)I6-*+:(*)-*!)4.<+$%-2) SJIQTMVMGEPWXYHMIWSRXLIXSTMG½RHTSWMXMZI WMKRM½GERX IJJIGX SJ STIRRIWW SR KVS[XL XLI $!5:6-)+;)+:$)5-:12)1+!5)&+-)#+%&-)%&)-*%5)1%0 $!'-%+&7) U&);.'-9) ,!)'.&&+-)5-.-!).&2)'6!.$0':-) VIPEXMSRWLMTFIX[IIRXLIX[SJEGXSVW;I½RH /!$2) ;!,) !/%1!&'!) -*.-) '.:5.6%-2) (+!5) ;$+4) ($+,-*) -+) +#!&&!55) .&1) &+) 5%&(6!) !/%1!&'!) -*.-) -*!) $!/!$5!) $!6.-%+&5*%#) ,+:61) *+61) ;+$) -*!)'$+550'+:&-$2)$!($!55%+&)$!5:6-57 ) @+)5:4):#)-*!)$!5:6-59),!);.%6)-+)'+&0 ½VQ XLI QEMR L]TSXLIWMW SJ XLI TETIV XLEX *+, !"##$%&'()*+,# ! "#!$#%&$'!(!%&)*'*+#!*,%(-'!&.!*/0 +#)',#/'! &/! 1$&2'3! .&$! )&,#! 4#($)! 5/6#$! TVSXIGXMSRMWQ8LIVIWYPXXLEXFIWX½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½GMIRXVIWSYVGIEPPSGEXMSRXLEX[SYPH 4*#<6!3*13#$!1$&2'39! F/#!#H%<(/('*&/!'&!'3#! J%&&$K! $#)5<')! -&5<6! 7#! '3('! '3#! -3(//#<)! '3$&513!23*-3!&%#//#))!2&$=)!&/!1$&2'3!($#! ,&$#!-&,%<#H!&/!'3#!(11$#1('#!<#+#<!'3(/!&/! '3#!6*)(11$#1('#!<#+#<9! ?'!2&5<6!'3#$#.&$#!7#! IEWMIV XS WII WMKRM½GERX IJJIGXW YWMRK QMGVS 6('(9!>/&'3#$!$#()&/!234!'3#!%$#6*-'*&/)!($#! /&'!*/!<*/#!2*'3!'3#!#H%#-'#6!&5'-&,#!-&5<6! 7#!'3('!'3#!<*/#($!.5/-'*&/!*)!/&'!(6#L5('#!6#0 )-$*%'*&/! &.! '3#! ,#-3(/*),)! '3$&513! 23*-3! &%#//#))!3()!(/!*,%(-'!&/!1$&2'39! ?'!,*13'! 2#<<!7#!'3('!'3#)#!+($*(7<#)!($#!/&/0<*/#($!(/6! '35)!'3('!&5$!,&6#<!6&#)!/&'!-(%'5$#!'3#)#! IJJIGXW8SWYQYTXLIHMWGYWWMSRMXMWNYWXM½IH '&!6#-<($#!'3('!,(/4!&'3#$!.(-'&$)!($#!('!%<(4! 23#/!6#'#$,*/*/1!1$&2'39 3YV½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½GMIRG]SJ½VQWO&5$/(<!&.! ! S#+#<&%,#/'!I-&/&,*-);!+&<9!XB;!%%9!YXY`YDY9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ()* !"#$%&'()!$*+$!,(-#$*'#..#//$%.$0(!%.$(&#,%)($*.$#)*.*&%)$1,*2!" !"#$%&'(()%&!"#$%&'()*+!",()-.+/0+'1"+2%(3&%+45(0(-*6+7./&0+&08+9&'/0+7-")/5&0 + :").;"5'/<".=&!"#$&*+,-../0123%&*4+035 607.+4894:0;%&<=03&>5&41/&?4+048>12.@3&!@0745%&ABBC%&>0'")0&'/(0&%+?)&8"+?1"()/".=+Strategies and Evidence, !DE,+/&F1075&*+.33%&G.H&I,+J5 6,/+0J%&$410&41/&K+41-03-,&6,/+02=.;&LABBBM%&?)&8"+:(%/5*+&08+45(0(-/5+2)(@'1A+>&N-.O:0-P3& & Q=0/.&:,&#+,33814:0,14@&"70/.1-.%&G9"6&R,+J012&*4O.+3&SB)'5 N4-T3%&U.EE+.V&41/&>1/+.H&?5&R4+1.+%&'((W%&45(0(-/5+!",()-+&08+:)(5"..+(,+2%(3&%+>0'"#)&'/(0= + Brookings Papers on Economic Activity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