E id i l fh i id d Epidemiology of homicide and cost of violence in

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EEpidemiology of homicide and id i l
f h i id
d
cost of violence in Mexico
cost of violence in Mexico FORUM ON GLOBAL VIOLENCE PREVENTION
FORUM
ON GLOBAL VIOLENCE PREVENTION
INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE
WASHINGTON D.C:
APRIL 28‐29, 2011
Arturo Cervantes Trejo MD, MPH, DPH
National Council for Injury Prevention
Federal Ministry of Health, Mexico
Contents 1. Epidemiology
Epidemiology of homicide and DTO of homicide and DTO
violence in Mexico
2. Estimate of the cost of homicide, violence and insecurity in Mexico
3. Closing remarks
DTO = Drug Trafficking Organizations
2
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1. Epidemiology of homicide and p
gy
DTO violence in Mexico
3
Average Homicide Rates by UN Global Region, 2003‐2008.
45 0
45.0
average rate per 100,000 populattion
40.0
Latin America and the Caribbean
35 0
35.0
30.0
25 0
25.0
20.0
15.0
Africa
10.0
5.0
Asia
0.0
Oceania
N th A
North America: USA, Canada, Bermuda
i USA C d B
d
Europe
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Africa
7.4
15.8
7.8
7.6
6.8
7.1
Asia
3.7
5.8
3.6
3.6
4.0
3.8
Latin America and the Caribbean 20.0
18.1
18.6
20.1
26.5
40.3
Oceania
2.3
2.7
1.4
1.3
1.1
1.3
Europe
3.9
3.3
3.3
2.9
2.6
2.9
United States of America, Canada and Bermuda
3.5
3.2
4.4
3.7
3.6
3.5
4
Average Homicide Rates by UN Global Region, 2003‐2008.
Region
Africa
Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania
E
Europe
United States of America, Canada and Bermuda
2003
7.4
3.7
20.0
2.3
39
3.9
3.5
2004
15.8
5.8
18.1
2.7
33
3.3
3.2
2005
7.8
3.6
18.6
1.4
33
3.3
4.4
2006
7.6
3.6
20.1
1.3
29
2.9
3.7
2007
6.8
4.0
26.5
1.2
26
2.6
3.6
2008
7.1
3.8
40.3
1.3
29
2.9
3.5
Here North America consists of USA, Canada and Bermuda
Source: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNOCD), Homicide Statistics, February 2010; In: C R Seelke (coord.) Latin America and the Caribbean: Illicit Drug Trafficking and U.S. Counterdrug Programs, In: C. R. Seelke
(coord ) Latin America and the Caribbean: Illicit Drug Trafficking and U S Counterdrug Programs
Congressional Research Service, 2010
5
Homicide rates for selected countries in the Americas, 2003 – 2008.
in the Americas, 2003 Source: UNODC, Homicide Statistics, Criminal Justice and Public Health Sources Trends, 2003‐2008;
Mexico: CONAPRA, based on INEGI, homicides mortality, 2003‐2008 6
Homicide rates for selected countries i th A
in the Americas, 2003 –
i
2003 2008.
2008
Brasil
Canada
Colombia
El Salvador
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
United States of America
2003
33.1
1.5
56.3
58.8
33.6
37.1
9.9
5.6
2004
31.1
1.7
47.3
64.5
31.9
55.5
9.1
5.4
2005
29.2
1.8
42
62.4
35.1
62.8
9.5
5.5
2006
24.8
1.7
40
64.6
42.9
49.9
10
5.6
2007
20.4
1.6
38.8
57.3
50
58.7
8.4
5.5
2008
22
1.7
51.8
60.9
59.5
13.1
5.2
Source: UNODC, Homicide Statistics, Criminal Justice and Public Health Sources Trends, 2003‐2008; 7
Mexico: INEGI, homicides mortality, 2003‐2008 Number of homicides in Mexico, Chihuahua and Ciudad Juarez, 1990‐2009.
,
Source: CONAPRA, based on INEGI, homicides mortality, 1990‐2009; drug 8
related killings: Milenio , El Universal newspapers, 2000‐2009
Homicide rates in Mexico, Chihuahua
and Ciudad Juarez, 2000‐2009.
d Ci d d J
2000 2009
Source: CONAPRA, based on: INEGI, homicides mortality, 2000‐2009
9
Homicide rates by age groups in Mexico, Chihuahua, and Ciudad Juarez, 2009.
Source: CONAPRA, based on: INEGI, homicides mortality, 2009
10
Homicide rates by age groups and gender in Mexico, Chihuahua and Ciudad Juarez, 2009. ,
,
Source: CONAPRA, based on: INEGI, homicides mortality, 2009
11
Main causes of death in Mexico, 2009
12,673
Motor Vehicle
19,804
Homicide
4,550
Pedestrian
4,308
Suicide
2,491
Drowning / Choking
Source: CONAPRA, based on: INEGI, homicides mortality, 2009
In 2009, homicide became the first cause of death in Mexico among people aged 15 to 29.
Núm
2000
2001
2002
2003
• (external causes of death table)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1
Accidentes de
Accidentes de
Accidentes de
Accidentes de
Accidentes de
Accidentes de
Accidentes de
Accidentes de
Accidentes de
tráfico de vehículo tráfico de vehículo tráfico de vehículo tráfico de vehículo tráfico de vehículo tráfico de vehículo tráfico de vehículo tráfico de vehículo tráfico de vehículo
Homicidios
de motor 14028 de motor 14016 de motor 14626 de motor 14918 de motor 15025 de motor 15976 de motor 16769 de motor 15349 de motor 17062 19804 Tasa 18.4
Tasa 14.3
Tasa 14.1
Tasa 14.5
Tasa 14.6
Tasa 14.6
Tasa 15.4
Tasa 16
Tasa 14.5
Tasa 16
2
Homicidios
Homicidios
10743 Tasa 10.9 10286 Tasa 10.3
Homicidios
10089 Tasa 10
Accidentes de
Homicidios
Homicidios 9330 Homicidios 9926
Homicidios
Homicidios 8868
Homicidios
tráfico de vehículo
10088 Tasa 9.9
Tasa 9.1
Tasa 9.5
10454 Tasa 10
Tasa 8.4
14007 Tasa 13.1 de motor 17820
Tasa 16.6
3
Disparo de arma
de fuego 5459
Tasa 5.5
Disparo de arma
de fuego 5380
Tasa 5.4
Disparo de arma
de fuego 5213
Tasa 5.2
Disparo de arma
de fuego 5130
Tasa 5
Disparo de arma
de fuego 4733
Tasa 4.6
Disparo de arma
de fuego 5110
Tasa 4.9
Disparo de arma
de fuego 5739
Tasa 5.5
Disparo de arma
de fuego 5037
Tasa 4.8
Disparo de arma
Disparo de arma
de fuego 8801 de fuego 12677
Tasa 8.2
Tasa 11.8
4
Suicidios 3475
Tasa 3.5
35
Suicidios 3811
Tasa 3.8
38
Suicidios 3871
Tasa 3.8
38
Suicidios 4104
Tasa 4
Suicidios 4117
Tasa 4
Suicidios 4315
Tasa 4.2
42
Suicidios 4277
Tasa 4.1
41
Suicidios 4395
Tasa 4.2
42
Suicidios 4681
Tasa 4.4
44
Suicidios 5190
Tasa 4.8
48
5
Ahogamiento y
sumersión
accidentales
2680 Tasa 2.7
27
Ahogamiento y
sumersión
accidentales
2524 Tasa 2.5
25
Lesiones de
intención no
determinada
2855 Tasa 2.8
28
Lesiones de
intención no
determinada
2716 Tasa 2.7
27
Lesiones de
intención no
determinada
2996 Tasa 2.9
29
Lesiones de
intención no
determinada
3004 Tasa 2.9
29
Lesiones de
intención no
determinada
2841 Tasa 2.7
27
Ahogamiento y
sumersión
accidentales
2609 Tasa 2.5
25
Ahogamiento y
sumersión
accidentales
2606 Tasa 2.4
24
Lesiones de
intención no
determinada
2954 Tasa 2.7
27
Source: CONAPRA, based on INEGI/SEED data base, 2011
13
DTO murders by state in 2010
84% of drug related killings occur in 4 states: Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Guerrero and Baja California
d B j C lif i
Source: Drug Violence in Mexico, Data and Analysis Through 2010 report, Viridiana Ríos and David A. Shirk, Justice in Mexico, Trans‐Border Institute, University of San Diego, Feb 2011, p. 10
14
DTO related homicides by municipality, 2010.
70% of the violence in 2010 was concentrated in 80 municipalities.
32% of homicides occur in: ‐ Ciudad Juarez (2,738) Ciudad Juarez (2 738)
‐ Culiacan (587)
‐ Tijuana (472)
‐ Chihuahua (670) ‐ Acapulco (370)
Source: Drug Violence in Mexico, Data and Analysis Through 2010 report, Viridiana Ríos and David A. Shirk, Justice in Mexico, Trans‐Border Institute, University of 15
San Diego, Feb 2011, p. 11
Asalto, homicidio, secuestro y robo Ciudad Juárez, 2009
Crímenes violentos, cuenta absoluta, 2009
Número de crímenes violentos por colonia.
Crímenes violentos, cuenta relativa, 2009
Número de crímenes violentos por km cuadrado por colonia.
Homicidios, cuenta relativa , 2009
Homicidios cuenta absoluta , 2009
Número de homicidios por colonia.
Número de homicidios por km cuadrado por colonia.
Road Traffic Incidents, 2009
Homicides confirmed as result of conflict between DTOs, 2006‐2010.
,
Source: Drug Violence in Mexico, Data and Analysis Through 2010 report, Viridiana Ríos and David A. Shirk, Justice in Mexico, Trans‐Border Institute, University of San Diego, Feb 2011, p. 18
19
Tendency of DTO related murders, Mexico 2007 ‐ 2010.
Source: Drug Violence in Mexico, Data and Analysis Through 2010 report, Viridiana Ríos and David A. Shirk, Justice in Mexico, Trans‐Border Institute, 20
University of San Diego, Feb 2011, p. 8
DTO related murder is increasing
• DTO related homicides have increased significantly • Homicides in six years 2000 ‐2006 • Homicides in three years 2006‐2010 = 8,901 = 34,550 • Homicides in 2010 = 15,000
• 44% of total during 2006‐2010.
• 84% of homicides occur in 4 states.
• 70% in 80 municipalities.
Source: Drug Violence in Mexico, Data and Analysis Through 2010 report, Viridiana Ríos and David A. Shirk, Justice in Mexico, Trans‐Border Institute, University of San Diego, 21
Feb 2011
Firearm related homicides as a % of total homicides 2000 2009 (men).
homicides 2000 –
2009 (men)
22
Source: CONAPRA, based on: INEGI, homicides mortality, 2000‐2009
Tendency of firearm homicides as percent of total homicides, Mexico 2000 – 2009.
total homicides, Mexico 2000 65%
64.7
62.7
56.8
54.9
50 7
50.7
45%
52.2
51.7
50 8
50.8
50 7
50.7
51.4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total homicidios
49.3
47.8
48.3
49.2
49.3
48.6
45.1
43.2
37.3
35.3
Arma de fuego
50.7
52.2
51.7
50.8
50.7
51.4
54.9
56.8
62.7
64.7
Source: CONAPRA, based on: INEGI, homicides mortality, 2000‐2009
Number of journalists killed in Mexico: 1994‐2010.
Source: Drug Violence in Mexico, Data and Analysis Through 2010 report, Viridiana Ríos and David A. Shirk, Justice in Mexico, Trans‐Border 24
Institute, University of San Diego, Feb 2011, p. 14
Firearm seizures in Mexico 2005‐2009.
2007‐2008: 3 times more firearm seizures Source: CONAPRA, based on: INEGI, homicides mortality, 2005‐2009
25
2. Estimates of the cost of violence and insecurity in i l
di
it i
Mexico
26
Cost of violence as % GDP in Latin America, 1999
Type of loss
% GDP
Health loss
1.9
Medical care
0.2
Number of life years lost
Number of life years lost
17
1.7
Material damages
3.0
Public security 1.1
Private security
1.4
System of justice
0.5
Intangible costs
7.1
Productivity – investment deterioration
1.8
Work – consumption deterioration 5.3
Transferences (criminals –
victims)
2.1
TOTAL
14.2
Source: Cafferata, F. (2011), ¿Ineficiencia, ineficacia, inequidad? Sobre los costos de delito y la distribución de los recursos de la seguridad. Serie Nuevas Voces CGTS, (14), Consorcio Global para la Transformación de la Seguridad (CGTS), p. 8
27
27
Types of crime costs/actors. In advance/potential victims and State
As a consequence/victims
As a response/State
Security expenditures
Stolen and damaged property Police Cost of Insurance /health care
Loss of productivity
Attorney
Preventive behavior Emotional and psychological
impact Prison
Lower quality of life
Medical Health Care
Cost of restitution Cost of crime prevention programs Victims’ support expenditure
System of justice
Cost of community security
Victims quality of life
Legal and illegal defense Cost of probation Cost of witness Source: Cafferata, F. (2011), ¿Ineficiencia, ineficacia, inequidad? Sobre los costos de delito y la distribución de los recursos de la seguridad. Serie Nuevas Voces 28
CGTS, (14), Consorcio Global para la Transformación de la Seguridad (CGTS), p. 3
Categories: cost of violence.
‐ Tangible
‐ Intangible
Production ‐ Public
‐ Private Transaction ‐ Cost of victims
‐ Cost of potential victims
‐ Cost of state Security ‐ Cost in advance
‐ Cost of consequence
‐ Cost of response 29
Perception of insecurity
• Insecurity perception is highest in the world (LAC)
Insecurity perception is highest in the world (LAC)
• 60%
60% of Latin American citizens perceive their f L ti A
i
iti
i th i
neighborhoods as unsafe
• 90 % of residents in Ciudad Juárez feel unsafe in their communities
Sources: El costo del delito y la violencia en México. Criterios generales de diseño
para un Índice de riesgo de seguridad ciudadana. Instituto para la Seguridad y la 30
Democracia, A.C. (INSYDE), ppt; el Diario newspaper, April 25, 2011 Insecurity perception causes travel changes during Easter holidays, 2011 Source: El Universal survey (Mexican national newspaper), Carlos Ordóñez, Criminality affects Easter holidays (Crimen pega a vacaciones de Semana Santa), 18.04.2011 31
Total cost of violence in Mexico during 2009, according to ICESI 2011
according to ICESI, 2011.
87 B USD
71,1 B USD
81,9 B USD
Source: CONAPRA, based on: Cost of Insecurity in Mexico, Notebook 10, Citizenship Institute on Insecurity Studies, ICESI, Feb 2011
32
Total cost of violence during 2009 16,7 B USD
69,6 B USD
1 B USD
87.3 US Billion
Source: Cost of Insecurity in Mexico, Notebook 10, Citizenship Institute on Insecurity Studies, ICESI, Feb 2011
33
Mexican National Bank Survey, March 2011.
• Insecurity is biggest problem Mexican economy – 21% of specialists agree it is main obstacle
• Positive outlook
– 100% economy is in better state than a year ago
– 87% think it will be in better condition in near future
– 67% think “it is a good moment to invest in Mexico”
Source: Inseguridad, un freno económico: analistas, El Universal newspaper,
April 2, 2011, based on BANXICO 34
Per capita cost of violence in México, 2007 ‐
,
2009
769 USD
814 USD
814 USD
673 USD
Source: Cost of Insecurity in Mexico, Notebook 10, Citizenship Institute on Insecurity Studies, ICESI, Feb 2011
35
Public cost of violence, 2009.
16,7 Billion USD (19.2%) 50.6%
state
37.3%
• Interns productivity
28.1%
• Private security
24.2%
• Looses due to changes of daily routines
5.8%
• Looses due to imprisonment
• Looses due to homicides
• Looses due to Looses due to
investigation process
9.5%
municipal
39.9%
federal
2.7%
1.9%
Source: Cost of Insecurity in Mexico, Notebook 10, Citizenship Institute on Insecurity Studies, ICESI, Feb 2011
36
Private cost of violence, 2009.
15,2 B USD
15,2 B USD
Oth
Other
54,4 B USD
94%
24.28% Security at home
74% personal loses
bribes
1.72% Medical
Source: Cost of Insecurity in Mexico, Notebook 10, Citizenship Institute on Insecurity Studies, ICESI, Feb 2011
37
Ministry of Defense, direct cost incurred in fighting DTOs
incurred in fighting DTOs.
Daily number of soldiers involved i d
in drug trafficking combat
ffi ki
b
Daily cost
Daily
cost of a member of of a member of
Mexican Arm Forces
Daily total cost
45,000
58 USD
2,6 M USD
M USD
Cost per year
946 M USD
% of total budget of SEDENA 25%
Source: SEDENA, in Reforma newspaper, May 24 2009, p. 4, in: Atlas de la Seguridad y la Defensa en México 2009, Cuadro 108, p. 361 38
Budget of Mexican federal security, 2000‐2008.
Total budget of Mexican security forces:
o in 2008: 7.5 M USD and
i 2008 7 5 M USD d 0.65% of GDP 0 65% f GDP
o between 2000 & 2008 it increased 125%
Source: Atlas de la Seguridad y la Defensa en México 2009, Gráfico 1, p. 265 (Figures in millions USD)
39
Budget of Mexican arm forces vs. US military assistance. US Military Assistance
Source: Atlas de la Seguridad y la Defensa en México 2009, Gráfico 25, p. 381 40
(In M of USD)
Last year trend in the private cost of insecurity (2008 2009)
cost of insecurity (2008‐2009)…
• Private security expenditures increase 123%
Private security expenditures increase 123%
• Home expenditures in medical care decline 62% Changes in percent
in percent of private
of private expenditures
for violence and insecurity, 2008 ‐ 20009
Security at home
home Personal loss from crime
from crime
2008
66%
34%
2009
40%
60%
Source: Cost of Insecurity in Mexico, Notebook 10, Citizenship Institute on 41
Insecurity Studies, ICESI, Feb 2011
Conclusions and closing
and closing
42
Every day in Mexico…
… 50 people die from violence
p p
…1,250 people are treated by the health sector 1 250 people are treated by the health sector
from violence
… 100 people suffer some kind of disability due to injuries caused by violence
43
44
Closing remarks
• Carrying or selling firerarms is not allowed Mexico
allowed Mexico
•
•
•
•
32.6% of all crimes occur firearms
86% of kidnappings
84% of bank robbery
84% of bank robbery
70% of all injuries
Source: Cost of Insecurity in Mexico, Notebook 10, Citizenship Institute on Insecurity Studies, ICESI, Feb 2011
Closing remarks
• 66% of Mexicans gave up at least 1 activity due to the fear of being
activity due to the fear of being victimized
• 22% of crimes are reported to police 22% of crimes are reported to police
• 38% of citizens did not report a crime because “it’s
because it s a waste of time
a waste of time”
Source: Cost of Insecurity in Mexico, Notebook 10, Citizenship Institute on Insecurity Studies, ICESI, Feb 2011
47
Closing remarks
• Ecological impact across family, community nations humankind
community… nations, humankind
• Never late to realize the obvious
• Underestimated intangible cost –From 1 bn
From 1 bn Æ 26 bill USD 26 bill USD
• Mental health
• Social health
• Community wellbeing
Community wellbeing
Source: Cost of Insecurity in Mexico, Notebook 10, Citizenship Institute on Insecurity Studies, ICESI, Feb 2011
49
Closing remarks
• High level research is needed –Longitudinal / lifecycle approach
–Neurobiology,
Neurobiology, psychology, psychiatry, psychology, psychiatry,
sociology, anthropology, medicine
–Biological markers of stress
Bi l i l
k
f t
–Neurobiology
gy
–Indirect economic impact
Source: Cost of Insecurity in Mexico, Notebook 10, Citizenship Institute on Insecurity Studies, ICESI, Feb 2011
51
Reunión de Ministerial de las Américas sobre prevención de violencia y lesiones, Mérida, México, Marzo 2008
12/05/2011
52
Main challenge, collaboration
Escuelas y universidades
Centros comunitarios
Padres
Maestros
Agencias internacionales e instituciones
Compañías
Niños y jóvenes
ONG’s y Asociaciones Ciudadanas
d d
Profesionales
Gobierno
Sociedad
Otras instituciones privadas y Otras
instituciones privadas y
filantrópicas
Agencias de Agencias
de
gobierno e instituciones
53
National Council for Injury Prevention
INTERIOR
HEALTH
FINANCE
CONAPRA
LABOR
TRANSPORTATION
EDUCATION
National Center for Injury Prevention
1
PUBLIC SECURITY
55
32 State Injury Prevention Councils