Additional Documentation for “Who Votes for Chavismo? Class

Additional Documentation for “Who Votes for Chavismo? Class Voting in Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela”
Table X1. Representativeness of survey sample demographics
1993
Sample
1998
Pop
Urbanizationa
Urban
Rural
2000
2004
Sample
Pop
Sample
Pop
84.1
15.9
87.0
13.0
88.8
11.2
87.0
13.0
Sample
2006
Pop
Sample
Pop
95.2
4.8
93.4
6.6
Genderb
Male
Female
49.5
50.5
50
50
49.7
50.3
50
50
48.4
51.6
50
50
50.1
49.9
50
50
50.1
49.9
50
50
Agec
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55 and older
23.4
28.3
20.7
18.1
9.6
21.2
29.4
21.5
13.2
14.7
28.9
25.8
18.8
13.3
13.2
20.7
28.6
22.6
15.0
13.1
23.8
28.2
21.5
12.0
14.5
20.5
28.3
23.1
15.7
12.4
22.0
26.0
21.1
15.0
16.0
20.1
27.6
24.0
17.2
11.1
24.7
26.8
23.2
13.1
12.2
19.9
27.3
24.4
17.9
10.5
15.3
0.0
5.1
2.3
6.6
2.8
5.1
8.2
0.8
9.9
0.3
5.2
1.6
6.3
2.6
5.2
8.3
1.1
11.8
8.7
0.3
5.4
1.6
6.3
2.8
5.4
8.5
1.1
8.0
0.0
6.1
2.4
7.2
2.9
5.3
8.5
1.1
8.3
0.3
5.5
1.6
6.3
2.9
5.4
8.6
1.1
Statec
Federal District
Amazonas
Anzoátegui
Apure
Aragua
Barinas
Bolívar
Carabobo
Cojedas
1.1
1.3
7.6
2.2
6.4
8.3
2.4
1
1993
Sample
Delta Amacuro
Falcón
Guárico
Lara
Mérida
Miranda
Monagas
Nueva Esparta
Portuguesa
Sucre
Táchira
Trujillo
Vargas
Yaracuy
Zulia
Regionc
Capital
Central
Centro Occidental
Guayana
Insular
Los Andes
Los Llanos
Nor-Oriental
Sur Occidental
Zulia
1998
Pop
2000
Sample
0.5
3.1
1.9
6.0
4.1
6.8
2.6
0.9
3.2
3.7
6.1
1.7
Pop
0.4
3.3
2.7
6.7
3.1
10.2
3.0
1.6
3.1
3.5
4.4
2.6
2.1
11.3
2.2
12.8
Sample
2004
Pop
Sample
0.8
2.1
9.0
2.8
6.8
3.1
1.8
3.2
5.1
3.9
2.3
3.3
14.8
28.7
18.0
10.2
6.0
6.4
7.3
9.8
13.6
2006
Pop
0.4
3.3
2.7
6.9
3.1
10.0
3.2
1.6
3.1
3.3
4.2
2.6
1.7
2.2
13.2
Sample
0.0
0.0
2.7
6.4
3.4
10.1
3.2
2.7
3.1
4.2
2.7
1.6
2.1
16.7
Pop
0.4
3.3
2.7
6.9
3.1
10.0
3.3
1.6
3.1
3.2
4.2
2.6
1.9
2.2
13.2
19.4
15.8
15.4
6
1.6
8.4
4.3
11.8
4.3
13
Educationd
2
1993
None
Primary
Secondary
University
Sample
19.5
52.4
22.5
5.6
1998
Pop
17.3
46.5
19.7
16.4
Sample
12.3
41.0
23.9
22.9
2000
Pop
18.6
45.2
20
16.3
Sample
8.9
41.7
34.1
15.3
2004
Pop
17.8
43.5
20.5
18.1
Sample
14.1
31.6
37.3
17.0
2006
Pop
15.9
41.2
22.9
19.9
Sample
12.5
50.3
25.5
11.7
Pop
15.9
41.2
22.9
19.9
a
United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999 and 2005
World Development Indicators
c
Venezuelan National Census, 1990 and 2001 (reported values are interpolated using linear rates of growth)
d
Economic Commission on Latin American and the Caribbean, Social Panorama of Latin America, 2006, Table 31.1 (reported
values correspond to 1994, 1998, 2000, and 2005)
b
3
Table X2. Comparison of survey sample and population vote distributions
1993
Rafael Caldera
Claudio Fermín
Oswaldo Alvarez Paz
Andrés Velásquez
Hugo Chávez Frías
Henrique Salas Römer
Irene Sáez
Luis Alfaro Ucero†
Miguel Rodríguez
Alfredo Ramos
Francisco Arias
Manuel Rosales
Others
1998
Survey
Pop
29.3
20.6
34.7
13.5
30.5
23.6
22.7
22.0
Survey
48.0
37.7
2.5
10.1
1.07
0.09
2.0
1.2
0.54
2000
Pop
56.2
40.0
2.8
0.4
0.3
0.11
2004
Survey
Pop
8.0
2.7
61.0
59.8
31.0
37.5
Survey
37.6
62.4
1,369
Turnout
Abstention
77.7
22.4
1,121
60.2
39.8
88.5
11.5
Pop
0.18
No (2004 referendum)
Yes (2004 referendum)
Respondents
2006
1,307
63.8
36.2
88.8
11.2
92.9
7.1
Pop
76.3
62.8
19.9
3.8
36.9
0.3
50.1
48.9
1,050
56.3
43.7
Survey
1,507
69.9
30.1
76.8
23.2
74.7
25.3
Sources: Election results are from Molina (2004); National Electoral Commission.
†
Ucero resigned from the race after the 1998 survey was conducted, and his party backed Salas Römer in an attempt to avoid a
victory for Chávez (see McCoy 1999).
4
Table X3. Descriptive statistics
Year
1993
1998
2000
2004
2006
Variable
Income
Age
Gender
Education
Income
Age
Gender
Education
Income
Age
Gender
Education
Income
Age
Gender
Education
Income
Age
Gender
Education
Observations
Mean
Standard
Deviation
Minimum
Maximum
1,388
1,479
1,499
1,499
1,401
1,500
1,500
1,492
1,364
1,500
1,500
1,500
887
1,197
1,197
1,015
1,303
1,464
1,510
1,372
1.36
1.62
0.51
1.14
1.46
1.56
0.50
1.57
1.39
1.65
0.52
1.56
1.16
1.77
0.50
1.57
1.61
1.66
0.50
1.36
0.88
1.28
0.50
0.79
1.09
1.37
0.50
0.97
1.11
1.35
0.50
0.86
1.02
1.37
0.50
0.93
1.05
1.31
0.50
0.85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
1
3
3
4
1
3
3
4
1
3
3
4
1
3
3
4
1
3
Table X4. Effect of income on vote choice, 1998
(1)
Income group:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Age
Gender
Education
Constant
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
0.164
(0.18)
0.231
(0.20)
0.0666
(0.19)
0.214
(0.18)
0.0500
(0.17)
-0.0166
(0.19)
0.446**
(0.18)
0.282*
(0.17)
0.216
(0.19)
0.232
(0.16)
0.242
(0.19)
0.0778
(0.18)
0.0112
(0.20)
0.0278
(0.17)
-0.204
(0.17)
0.316*
(0.18)
0.152
(0.17)
0.0854
(0.19)
0.102
(0.16)
-0.130
(0.16)
0.0743
(0.17)
0.240
(0.22)
0.0763
(0.22)
0.00968
(0.23)
0.0263
(0.21)
-0.206
(0.21)
-0.00150
(0.21)
-0.0758
(0.20)
0.482**
(0.19)
0.319*
(0.18)
0.252
(0.19)
0.269
(0.16)
0.0364
(0.16)
0.241
(0.17)
0.167
(0.16)
0.242
(0.20)
0.713***
(0.20)
0.549***
(0.19)
0.482**
(0.21)
0.499***
(0.18)
0.266
(0.17)
0.471**
(0.19)
0.397**
(0.17)
0.472**
(0.21)
0.230
(0.17)
0.414**
0.430**
0.198
0.403**
0.328*
0.404*
0.162
-0.0683
-0.164
(0.18)
-0.231
-0.0666
(0.20)
(0.19)
-0.214
-0.0500
0.0166
(0.18)
(0.17)
(0.19)
-0.446** -0.282*
-0.216
-0.232
(0.18)
(0.17)
(0.19)
(0.16)
-0.242
-0.0778
-0.0112
-0.0278
0.204
(0.18)
(0.20)
(0.17)
(0.17)
(0.19)
-0.316*
-0.152
-0.0854
-0.102
0.130
-0.0743
(0.18)
(0.17)
(0.19)
(0.16)
(0.16)
(0.17)
-0.240
-0.0763 -0.00968 -0.0263
0.206
0.00150
0.0758
(0.22)
(0.22)
(0.23)
(0.21)
(0.21)
(0.21)
(0.20)
-0.482** -0.319*
-0.252
-0.269
-0.0364
-0.241
-0.167
-0.242
(0.19)
(0.18)
(0.19)
(0.16)
(0.16)
(0.17)
(0.16)
(0.20)
-0.713*** -0.549*** -0.482** -0.499*** -0.266
-0.471** -0.397** -0.472**
-0.230
(0.20)
(0.19)
(0.21)
(0.18)
(0.17)
(0.19)
(0.17)
(0.21)
(0.17)
0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561*
(0.031)
(0.031)
(0.031)
(0.031)
(0.031)
(0.031)
(0.031)
(0.031)
(0.031)
(0.031)
-0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422***
(0.079)
(0.079)
(0.079)
(0.079)
(0.079)
(0.079)
(0.079)
(0.079)
(0.079)
(0.079)
0.0468
0.0468
0.0468
0.0468
0.0468
0.0468
0.0468
0.0468
0.0468
0.0468
(0.047)
(0.047)
(0.047)
(0.047)
(0.047)
(0.047)
(0.047)
(0.047)
(0.047)
(0.047)
0.644***
0.480**
Observations
(1)
(0.19)
1243
(2)
(0.19)
1243
(3)
(0.20)
1243
(4)
(0.18)
1243
(5)
(0.18)
1243
(6)
(0.19)
1243
(7)
(0.17)
1243
(8)
(0.22)
1243
(9)
(0.18)
1243
(10)
(0.20)
1243
Probit estimates with robust standard errors in parentheses (state dummies included in all models)
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
7
Table X5. Effect of income on vote choice, 2000
(1)
Income group:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Age
Gender
Education
Constant
Observations
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
-0.0542
(0.18)
-0.105
(0.18)
-0.0507
(0.14)
-0.148
(0.18)
-0.0934
(0.15)
-0.0427
(0.14)
-0.158
(0.21)
-0.103
(0.17)
-0.0527
(0.16)
-0.0100
(0.17)
-0.194
(0.21)
-0.140
(0.17)
-0.0892
(0.16)
-0.0466
(0.17)
-0.0366
(0.19)
0.000344
(0.20)
0.0546
(0.17)
0.105
(0.15)
0.148
(0.17)
0.158
(0.18)
0.195
(0.18)
0.0542
(0.18)
0.105
0.0507
(0.18)
(0.14)
0.148
0.0934
0.0427
(0.18)
(0.15)
(0.14)
0.158
0.103
0.0527
0.0100
(0.21)
(0.17)
(0.16)
(0.17)
0.194
0.140
0.0892
0.0466
0.0366
(0.21)
(0.17)
(0.16)
(0.17)
(0.19)
-0.000344 -0.0546
-0.105
-0.148
-0.158
-0.195
(0.20)
(0.17)
(0.15)
(0.17)
(0.18)
(0.18)
0.0337
0.0337
0.0337
0.0337
0.0337
0.0337
0.0337
(0.034)
(0.034)
(0.034)
(0.034)
(0.034)
(0.034)
(0.034)
-0.180** -0.180** -0.180** -0.180** -0.180** -0.180** -0.180**
(0.089)
(0.089)
(0.089)
(0.089)
(0.089)
(0.089)
(0.089)
-0.0727
-0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727
(0.055)
(0.055)
(0.055)
(0.055)
(0.055)
(0.055)
(0.055)
0.468**
(0.21)
1113
0.522*** 0.573*** 0.615*** 0.625*** 0.662***
(0.17)
(0.17)
(0.18)
(0.21)
(0.20)
1113
1113
1113
1113
1113
0.467**
(0.20)
1113
Probit estimates with robust standard errors in parentheses (region dummies included in all
models)
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Table X6. Effect of income on vote choice, 2004
(1)
Income group:
1
2
3
4
5
6
Age
Gender
Education
Constant
Observations
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
-0.0847
(0.15)
-0.0906
(0.18)
-0.00589
(0.17)
-0.278
(0.23)
-0.193
(0.22)
-0.187
(0.24)
-0.393
(0.26)
-0.309
(0.25)
-0.303
(0.26)
-0.116
(0.31)
0.215
(0.29)
0.300
(0.28)
0.306
(0.29)
0.493
(0.34)
0.609*
(0.35)
0.0847
(0.15)
0.0906
(0.18)
0.278
(0.23)
0.393
(0.26)
-0.215
(0.29)
-0.0557
(0.046)
-0.190*
(0.11)
-0.142**
(0.069)
0.00589
(0.17)
0.193
(0.22)
0.309
(0.25)
-0.300
(0.28)
-0.0557
(0.046)
-0.190*
(0.11)
-0.142**
(0.069)
0.187
(0.24)
0.303
(0.26)
-0.306
(0.29)
-0.0557
(0.046)
-0.190*
(0.11)
-0.142**
(0.069)
0.116
(0.31)
-0.493
(0.34)
-0.0557
(0.046)
-0.190*
(0.11)
-0.142**
(0.069)
-0.609*
(0.35)
-0.0557
(0.046)
-0.190*
(0.11)
-0.142**
(0.069)
-0.0557
(0.046)
-0.190*
(0.11)
-0.142**
(0.069)
0.270
(0.23)
738
0.355
(0.24)
738
0.361
(0.25)
738
0.548*
(0.29)
738
0.664**
(0.32)
738
0.0549
(0.35)
738
Probit estimates with robust standard errors in parentheses (state dummies included in all
models)
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
9
Table X7. Effect of income on vote choice, 2006
(1)
Income group:
1
2
3
4
5
6
Age
Gender
Education
Constant
Observations
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
-0.227
(0.19)
-0.331
(0.24)
-0.104
(0.19)
-0.144
(0.21)
0.0828
(0.20)
0.187
(0.21)
-0.336
(0.23)
-0.109
(0.20)
-0.00474
(0.22)
-0.191
(0.21)
0.0746
(0.22)
0.302*
(0.18)
0.406**
(0.20)
0.219
(0.18)
0.410**
(0.17)
0.240
(0.19)
0.341
(0.24)
0.155
(0.21)
0.333
(0.23)
-0.0877
(0.22)
0.00201
(0.047)
-0.0247
(0.100)
-0.170***
(0.064)
0.104
(0.19)
-0.0828
(0.20)
0.109
(0.20)
-0.302*
(0.18)
0.00611
(0.048)
-0.0227
(0.10)
-0.166***
(0.064)
-0.187
(0.21)
0.00474
(0.22)
-0.406**
(0.20)
0.00611
(0.048)
-0.0227
(0.10)
-0.166***
(0.064)
0.191
(0.21)
-0.219
(0.18)
0.00611
(0.048)
-0.0227
(0.10)
-0.166***
(0.064)
-0.410**
(0.17)
0.00611
(0.048)
-0.0227
(0.10)
-0.166***
(0.064)
0.00611
(0.048)
-0.0227
(0.10)
-0.166***
(0.064)
1.248***
(0.25)
786
1.360***
(0.27)
765
1.464***
(0.30)
765
1.277***
(0.29)
765
1.468***
(0.28)
765
1.058***
(0.27)
765
Probit estimates with clustered standard errors in parentheses (state dummies included in all
models)
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
10