Title of Event or Presentation

„Una Oportunidad de Negocio que parece haberse
dejado de lado:
Administrando Márgenes y Ganancias en las
Americas con Futuros sobre Arroz‟
Fred Seamon, Senior Director
Commodity Research and Product Development
Gerardo Luna, Senior Director,
International Products & Services, Latin America
Miami, FL, Junio 6, 2012
TEMAS

Introducción - CME Group
 Funciones Economicas de los Mercados de Futuro

Riesgo

Administración de Riesgos – Importancia

Alternativas de coberturas con Futuros y Opciones
Para Después:

Integridad Financiera

Los „10 Aspectos Clave de Jelinek´ para una Administración de
Riesgo Exitosa

Recursos
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
2
CME Group - Introducción
Chicago
Mercantile
Exchange
(CME)
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Chicago
Board of
Trade
(CBOT)
New York
Commodity
Mercantile
Exchange
Exchange
(COMEX)
(NYMEX)
4
Complejos de Productos de CME Group
• Commodity
¿A qué Riesgos está Expuesto?
• Tasa de Interés
Precios de Commodity
• Tipo de Cambio
Costos de Energía
Portafolio Financiero
• Indices Accionarios
Fluctuaciones de Tipo de Cambio
• Inversiones Alternativas
• Energía
• Metales
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
5
Complejos de Productos de CME Group
Granos y Oleaginosas:
Pecuarios:
• Corn Futures, Options & Swaps
• Feeder Cattle Futures and Options
• Wheat Corn Spread Options
• Live Cattle Futures and Options
• Mini-sized Corn Futures
• Lean Hogs Futures and Options
• Ethanol Futures, Options and Swaps
• Live Cattle & Lean Hog Calendar Spread
Options
• Oat Futures and Options
• Rough Rice Futures and Options
• Soybean Futures, Options & Swaps
• Mini-sized Soybean Futures
Productos Lácteos:
• Butter Futures and Options
• Soybean Meal Futures and Options
• Butter Spot Call
• Soybean Oil Futures and Options
• Cash-Settled Butter Futures
• Soybean Corn Price Ration Options
• Milk Class III Futures and Options
• Crude Palm Oil Futures
• Milk Class IV Futures and Options
• Wheat Futures, Options & Swaps
• Cheese
• Mini-sized Wheat Futures
• Nonfat Dry Milk Futures and Options
• Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, SoyOil, SoyMeal
Calendar Spread Options
• Dry Whey Futures
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Funciones Económicas de la Industria de
Futuros
Funciones Económicas de los Futuros
Descubrimiento
de Precio
Mercados
de Futuros
Administración
de Riesgo
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Rentabilidad en la Cobertura de Precios
Ingresos
─ Costos
Rentabilidad
Aumentar rentabilidad mediante
• Aumentar ingresos
• Bajar costos
Controlar rentabilidad por medio de
• Mejor planeación
• Mejor administración de precio
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Riesgo e Importancia de su
Administración
Futuros de Maíz
Riesgos y Oportunidades
Maíz – Cierres de Mercado 2002/12
$9
$8
DEUA por Bushel
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
El Riesgo de Precio está siempre Presente
Problema
• ¡Lo único cierto acerca del futuro es la incertidumbre!
Solución
• Use las herramientas de administración de riesgo para administrar la
incertidumbre en sus transacciones de contado (físico) en Latinoamérica
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Volatilidades de Precio Producto
Trigo
FrijolSoya
Alto
2008
2009
2010
2011
8.1%
23.9%
(1980 – 2011)
50.6%
37.9%
35.4%
43.3%
60.0%
5.2%
20.6%
(1980 – 2011)
38.4%
33.7%
20.2%
21.6%
41.3%
36.8%
30.1%
38.5%
34.5%
37.1%
25.8%
24.8%
40.4%
42.2%
25.8%
22.8%
39.4%
29.3%
19.4%
20.7%
63.9%
5.6%
20.7%
(1980 – 2011)
89.1%
83.5%
Pasta de Soya
Aceite de
Soya
Promedio
73.4%
Maíz
Cerdo
Bajo
(Promedios Anuales)
10.8%
29.6%
(2004 – 2011)
6.3%
22.2%
(2004 – 2011)
67.5%
6.6%
(2004 – 2011)
21.9%
‘Volatility is measurement of the change in price over a period of time. Historical Volatility is expressed
as a percentage and is calculated by taking the standard deviation of the log-differences of the daily
settlement prices of the underlying commodity over the course of the month. The result is multiplied by
the square root of 252 (the number of trading days in a year).’
13
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Importancia de la Administración de Riesgo de Precio
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Maíz: Futuro Cercano, Precio de Contado en
Golfo y Base
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Correlación Precios EUA con
Futuros Arroz CBOT
Nearby Rough Rice Futures and FOB NOLA Spot Prices
$25.00
Nearby Futures
FOB NOLA
$ per Hundredweight
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
16
Ejemplo Cadena Granos y Ac. Vegetales
Mercado de Contado
Agricultor
Uso/Almacenamiento
en Campo
Productor de
Concentrado
Compañía Semillera
Operación Pecuaria
Sistema de Elevadores
Mercados de
Exportación
Molineros / Refinadores
Procesadores de
Alimentos/Bebidas
Restaurantes
Sector Energético
Productos
No Alimenticios
Menudeo/Mayoreo
Tiendas/Supermercados
Consumidor
MERCADO DE FUTUROS
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Herramientas para Administrar Riesgo de
Precio
Futuros, Opciones, Swaps, Contratos de Contado, Programas de
Gobierno
• Todos diferentes en cuanto pros y contras
• Estúdielos, Practíquelos, Utilícelos
• Mejore sus administración de riesgo de precio
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
18
Hacer Algo, Hacer Nada
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
19
Ejemplo de „Acciones‟
Milenio Diario, 27/02, 2012, Pg. 25
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
20
Alternativas para tomar Coberturas con
Futuros y Opciones
• Programas de Gobierno
• El mercado mexicano HOY dispone de DOS con apoyos a coberturas
• Cuenta de la empresa con un broker
• Individual
• Grupo
• Cuenta de corretaje de empresa proveedora
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
21
Donde, Quienes, Que
(solo como ejemplos)
- Argentina
• Agricultores
 Alimentos Concentrados
- Brasil
• Comercializadores
 Maíz, Trigo, Soya, …
- Colombia
• Ganaderos
 Cerdo, Res
- Costa Rica
• Plantas de Concentrado
 Alimentos Concentrados
- Chile
• Productores de Cerdo
 ‘Juan Valdez’
- Guatemala
• Productores de Pollo,
Huevo
 FX / Tasas de Cambio
- Panamá
- Paraguay
- Rep. Dominicana
- Uruguay
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
22
Coberturas de Granos en México
(ASERCA, Programa de Gobierno)
Notas:
- Fuente: ASERCA, Marzo 2012
-El Reporte de Programa de Prevención y Manejo de Riesgos
(Componente Apoyo al Ingreso Objetivo y a la Comercialización,
Apoyos a Coberturas de Precios de Productos y Especies Elegibles) para
2011 incluye apoyos a +/- 50 mil TM de Arroz
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
23
Excusas Para No Usar Administración de
Riesgo
•
Los precios no pueden moverse más arriba / abajo – Excusa Débil
•
La industria de futuros es muy complicada – Excusa Débil
•
La administración de riesgos es muy cara – Excusa Débil
– Los márgenes de garantía son muy altos
– Las primas de Opciones son demasiado
•
Ninguno de mis competidores administra riesgos – Excusa Débil
•
Tengo un buen control de los fundamentales de mercado – Excusa
Débil
•
No creo en la protección de precio – Excusa Débil
•
NOTA: NO HAY EXCUSAS VALIDAS
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Resumen de Administración de Riesgos
Dicho en forma simple:
• Todo tiene que ver con su “LIMITE”
• Proteger y/o mejorar su “POSICION DE MERCADO DE CONTADO”
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Integridad Financiera
Integridad de Mercado
Regulación de Futuros
Interna
• CME Group tiene 4 Organizaciones Auto reguladas (SRO)
• CME
• CBOT
• NYMEX
• COMEX
• Regulación Legal y de Mercado
Externa
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
• National Futures Association (NFA)
*Nota: La legislación Dodd-Frank puede tener impacto en la regulación de mercado
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Papel de CME Clearing en el Mercado
El Modelo de Contraparte Central de Compensación
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Los „10 Aspectos Clave de Jelinek´ para una
Administración de Riesgo Exitosa
10 CLAVES PARA UNA ADMINISTRACIÓN DE
RIESGO EXITOSA
1)
Desarrolle un equipo
2)
Consulte con asesores
3)
Conozca sus alternativas
4)
Desarrolle políticas corporativas
5)
Desarrolle un plan
6)
Involucre a favor a la administración
7)
Siga con el plan pero manténgase flexible
8)
Mantenga buenos registros
9)
Revise los resultados
10) No mire hacia atrás
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Resumen y Recursos
Beneficios de CME Group
• Diversidad de Productos
• Futuros, Opciones & Swaps Compensados
• Complejos de Productos Diversificados
• Usos Flexibles
• Estrategias de Administración de Riesgo
• Estrategias Especulativas
• Fundamentos para contratos de contado
• Iniciar y ajustar posiciones con base en la exposición al riesgo deseada
• Liquidez & Transparencia
• Descubrimiento de Precio eficiente y equitativo
• Regulación e integridad financiera
• Monitoreo interno y externo
• CME Clearing – Proceso de compensación garantiza todas las transacciones en CME Group
• Plataformas de operación a elección del cliente & compensación
• CME Globex – Electrónico
• Piso de Operación – A Viva Voz
• CME Clearport – Interfaz de compensación OTC
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Centro de Educación
www.cmegroup.com/edu
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
CME GROUP: Forecast for the 2012 USDA
Acreage Report
WHEN:
Tuesday, June 26, 2011
2:00 p.m. CT
WHERE:
CME Group Auditorium
20 S. Wacker Drive
Chicago, IL 60606
Attend Online or In-Person
Register here
The current conditions in agricultural commodities have created much volatility in the
grain markets. What has been the impact on planted acres? In anticipation of the
June 29, 2012 USDA Acreage report, please join us in a discussion of the summer's
grain and oilseed prospects, and the potential effects of seasonal weather conditions.
The program will also include a discussion of short term Agricultural options,
including Weekly Grain Options options and the recently announced Short-Dated New
Crop option, which provide opportunities to trade on high impact events-such as
USDA reports and weather forecasts
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
34
CME GROUP: Forecast for the 2012 USDA
Acreage Report
Topics include:
Perspectives on acreage
2012 yield potential and price outlook
Current weather trends
Capitalizing on opportunities with Short-Dated New Crop options and Weekly
Grain options
Speakers:
Darin Newsom, Senior Analyst
Telvent DTN
Kyle Tapley, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist
MDA EarthSat Weather (CropCAST)
Ankita Roy, Manager
CME Group Agricultural Products
Register here
Learn more about Short-Dated New Crop options
Learn more about Weekly Agricultural options
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
35
Resources
•
Registrar‟s Reports:
• http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/reports/registrar-reports.html
•
Delivery Reports:
• http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/reports/cbot-delivery-reports.html
•
List of approved delivery facilities:
• http://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/CBOT/I/7/interpretations.html
•
Suggested Reading: Economics of Futures Trading for
Commercial and Personal Profit (Hieronymus, 1977)
• http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/irwin/links_archive_book_Hieronymus197
7.asp
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
36
Contacto e Información
Fred Seamon
Senior Director, Commodity Research and Product Development
Tel: +1 (312) 634-1587
Email: [email protected]
Brenda Tucker
Executive Director, CD&S – Commercials / Corporations
Tel: +1 (312) 454-8304
Email: [email protected]
Richard Jelinek
Director , Market Education & Development
Tel: +1 (312) 930-2320
Email: [email protected]
Gerardo Luna Melo
Director, International Products & Services (Latin America)
Tel: +1 (312) 342-5350
Email: [email protected]
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Futures are a
leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is required to trade,
it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a futures position. Therefore,
traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles. And
only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to
profit on every trade.
The Globe Logo, CME®, Chicago Mercantile Exchange®, and Globex® are trademarks of
Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT® and the Chicago Board of Trade® are trademarks of
the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, and
ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of
Commodity Exchange, Inc. CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. All other trademarks
are the property of their respective owners.
The information within this presentation has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes
only. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Although every attempt
has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information within this presentation, CME Group
assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Additionally, all examples in this
presentation are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be
considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded
by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and CME Group rules. Current rules should be consulted in all
cases concerning contract specifications.
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
CBOT Rough Rice Futures
XTRA Slides
Fred Seamon
Associate Director
Commodity Research and Product
Development
Rough Rice Volume
CBOT Rough Rice 20-Day Moving Average Volume
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
Average Daily Volume
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
40
Rough Rice Open Interest
CBOT Rough Rice 20-Day Moving Average Open
Interest
30,000
Average Daily Open Interest
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
41
America‟s Rice Prices
Correlated with CBOT Rice
Nearby Rough Rice Futures and FOB NOLA Spot Prices
$25.00
Nearby Futures
FOB NOLA
$ per Hundredweight
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
42
CBOT Rough Rice Delivery
Territory
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
43
Rough Rice Exports Have Become
Increasingly Important to the US
U.S. Rough Rice Exports
2,500
1,000 Metric Tons
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
44
U.S. Rice Export Destinations
U.S. Rice Exports - Top 10 Destinations
113.0
123.7
125.4
846.7
135.1
Mexico
Japan
Haiti
Turkey
227.5
Venezuela
Canada
Iraq
243.7
Honduras
Saudi Arabia
Nicaragua
361.5
281.3
327.7
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
45
U.S. Grain Export Routes
Wheat
Corn
Soybean
Sorghum
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Rice
46
Rice Futures Contract
Terms
U.S. # 2
2,000 cwt contract
Not less than 65% mill yield
Not less than 48% head rice
No Heat; No Stain; 75 Lightly Discolored Allowed in 500-gram Sample
Load-out charge max. 22.222 cent/cwt
Storage charge max. 34/100 cent/cwt/day (Proposed 42/100s starting 9/28)
January, March, May, July, September & November Expirations
Price Example – 14.805 is $14.805 per cwt.
Codes – ZR Globes; RR - Pit
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
Delivery Procedures
• Key Dates
• First Position day – Two business days prior to first delivery day of the current
month contract. If a long wishes not to risk taking delivery, they need to close all
of their positions prior to the close on this day.
• First Notice day – One business day prior to first delivery day of the current month
contract.
• First Delivery day – The first business day of the current month contract.
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
48
Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Futures are a
leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is required to trade,
it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a futures position. Therefore,
traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles. And
only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to
profit on every trade.
The Globe Logo, CME®, Chicago Mercantile Exchange®, and Globex® are trademarks of
Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT® and the Chicago Board of Trade® are trademarks of
the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, and
ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of
Commodity Exchange, Inc. CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. All other trademarks
are the property of their respective owners.
The information within this presentation has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes
only. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Although every attempt
has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information within this presentation, CME Group
assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Additionally, all examples in this
presentation are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be
considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded
by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX nd CME Group rules. Current rules should be consulted in all
cases concerning contract specifications.
© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved
49