MONTHLY SURVEY ON EXPECTATIONS August 2016

MONTHLY SURVEY ON EXPECTATIONS August 2016
11
Survey August 2016
Sent on August 3td, 2016
Median
decile 1
decile 9
Answers
0,2
0,1
0,3
56
Next month (monthly change)
0,5
0,3
0,5
56
In eleven months (12-month change)
3,0
2,7
3,6
56
In twenty three months (12-month change)
3,0
2,8
3,0
53
December 2016 (12-month change)
3,5
3,2
3,8
56
3,0
Median
2,8
3,3
56
decile 1
decile 9
Answers
3,50
3,50
3,50
57
Next month
3,50
3,50
3,50
57
In five months
3,50
3,43
3,50
57
December 2016
3,50
3,50
3,50
57
In eleven months
3,50
3,00
3,75
57
3,75
3,00
4,00
54
3,75
Median
3,20
4,25
54
decile 1
decile 9
Answers
In two months
1,1
1,1
1,2
52
In eleven months
1,3
1,0
1,5
51
In twenty three months forward
1,5
1,0
1,9
50
Deadline for responses: August 9th, 2016
Inflation (% change)
Current month (monthly change)
December 2017 (12-month change)
Monetary Policy rate target (%) (*)
Current month
In seventeen months
In twenty three months
5-Year BCU (%) (*)
5-Year BCP (%) (*)
Median
decile 1
decile 9
Answers
In two months
4,1
4,0
4,2
52
In eleven months
4,3
4,0
4,5
51
In twenty three months forward
4,5
4,0
4,9
50
Exchange Rate (CH $ per US$ 1) (*)
Median
decile 1
decile 9
Answers
In two months
670
650
681
55
In eleven months
680
628
700
55
In twenty three months forward
680
600
712
54
Median
decile 1
decile 9
Answers
0,9
0,4
1,6
57
Median
1,4
1,6
2,0
decile 1
1,0
1,4
1,8
decile 9
1,9
1,9
2,5
Answers
57
57
57
2,8
2,3
3,0
53
IMACEC (Monthly Activity Index)
One month ago
GDP (12-month change)
Within calendar quarter of the survey
Year 2016
Year 2017
Year 2018
(*) End of the month
Monthly survey of selected academics, consultants, and executives or advisors of financial institutions and corporations. It is
completed the day after the publication of the CPI or IMACEC (Monthly activity index), whichever the last known, and it is
published the day after its reception, at 8:30 hrs. approximately (www.bcentral.cl, "Statistics" section, " Economic
Surveys”, Website: http://www.bcentral.cl/en/faces/estadisticas/CircumPolls/EconoExpectations)
The sample size of surveyed analysts was increased since April 2011.
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Inflation current month (monthly change)
Answers: 56
Concepto Periodo
Median: 0,2%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
50%
nro. rango
45%
40%
0,2
rango2
1 <=0,1
4
8 >=0,3
% answers
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
32,14%
18
0,2
46,43%
26
21,43%
12
30
25
35%
20
30%
25%
15
20%
10
15%
10%
5
5%
0%
0
<=0,1
0,2
>=0,3
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Inflation next month (monthly change)
Answers: 56
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
50%
nro. rango
45%
40%
Median: 0,5%
% answers
0,9
rango2
1 <=0,3
3
4
8 >=0,6
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
32,14%
18
0,4
12,50%
7
0,5
46,43%
26
8,93%
5
30
BACK
25
35%
20
30%
25%
15
20%
10
15%
10%
5
5%
0%
0
<=0,3
0,4
0,5
>=0,6
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Inflation in eleven months (12-month change)
Answers: 56
Concepto Periodo
Median: 3%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
25%
nro. rango
20%
15%
% answers
15
rango2
1 <=2,7
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=3,3
2,8
2,9
3
3,1
3,2
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
12,50%
7
14,29%
8
12,50%
7
17,86%
10
8,93%
5
12,50%
7
21,43%
12
14
12
10
8
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=2,7
2,8
2,9
3
3,1
3,2
>=3,3
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Inflation in twenty three months (12-month change)
Answers: 53
Concepto Periodo
Median: 3%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
80%
nro. rango
70%
3
% answers
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
16,98%
9
3
75,47%
40
7,55%
4
rango2
1 <=2,9
4
8 >=3,1
45
40
BACK
35
60%
30
50%
25
40%
20
30%
15
20%
10
10%
5
0%
0
<=2,9
3
>=3,1
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Inflation december 2016 (12-month change)
Answers: 56
Concepto Periodo
Median: 3,5%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
35%
nro. rango
30%
25%
20%
% answers
17,5
rango2
1 <=3,2
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=3,8
3,3
3,4
3,5
3,6
3,7
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
12,50%
7
14,29%
8
10,71%
6
32,14%
18
8,93%
5
3,57%
2
17,86%
10
20
18
16
14
12
10
15%
8
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=3,2
3,3
3,4
3,5
3,6
3,7
>=3,8
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Inflation december 2017 (12-month change)
Answers: 56
Concepto Periodo
Median: 3%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
60%
nro. rango
50%
40%
% answers
15
rango2
1 <=2,7
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=3,3
2,8
2,9
3
3,1
3,2
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
7,14%
4
7,14%
4
8,93%
5
55,36%
31
1,79%
1
5,36%
3
14,29%
8
35
30
25
20
30%
15
20%
10
10%
5
0%
0
<=2,7
2,8
2,9
3
3,1
3,2
>=3,3
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Monetary Policy rate target current month
Answers: 57
Concepto Periodo
Median: 3,5%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
3,5
120%
nro. rango
rango2
4
% answers
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
3,5
100,00%
57
60
100%
50
80%
40
60%
30
40%
20
20%
10
0%
0
3,5
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Monetary Policy rate target next month
Answers: 57
Concepto Periodo
Median: 3,5%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
120%
nro. rango
100%
% answers
10,5
60
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
3,25
1,75%
1
3,5
96,49%
55
3,75
1,75%
1
rango2
2
4
5
50
80%
40
60%
30
40%
20
20%
10
0%
0
3,25
3,5
3,75
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Monetary Policy rate target In five months
Answers: 57
Concepto Periodo
Median: 3,5%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
10,5
90%
nro. rango
80%
70%
% answers
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
3,25
8,77%
5
3,5
84,21%
48
3,75
7,02%
4
rango2
2
4
5
60
50
60%
40
50%
30
40%
30%
20
20%
10
10%
0%
0
3,25
3,5
3,75
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Monetary Policy rate target december 2016
Answers: 57
Concepto Periodo
Median: 3,5%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
10,5
100%
nro. rango
90%
80%
% answers
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
3,25
7,02%
4
3,5
89,47%
51
3,75
3,51%
2
rango2
2
4
5
60
50
70%
40
60%
50%
30
40%
20
30%
20%
10
10%
0%
0
3,25
3,5
3,75
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Monetary Policy rate target in eleven months
Answers: 57
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
% answers
17,5
60%
nro. rango
50%
Median: 3,5%
rango2
2
3
4
5
6
3
3,25
3,5
3,75
4
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
12,28%
7
3,51%
2
54,39%
31
24,56%
14
5,26%
3
35
30
25
40%
20
30%
15
20%
10
10%
5
0%
0
3
3,25
3,5
3,75
4
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Monetary Policy rate target in seventeen months
Answers: 54
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
35%
nro. rango
30%
25%
Median: 3,75%
% answers
11,25
rango2
1 <=3,25
3
4
5
8 >=4,25
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
11,11%
6
3,5
31,48%
17
3,75
33,33%
18
4
18,52%
10
5,56%
3
20
18
16
14
12
20%
10
15%
8
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=3,25
3,5
3,75
4
>=4,25
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Monetary Policy rate target in twenty three months
Answers: 54
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
30%
nro. rango
25%
Median: 3,75%
% answers
11,25
rango2
1 <=3,25
3
4
5
8 >=4,25
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
9,26%
5
3,5
20,37%
11
3,75
27,78%
15
4
25,93%
14
16,67%
9
16
14
12
20%
10
15%
8
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=3,25
3,5
3,75
4
>=4,25
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
5-Year BCU In two months
Answers: 52
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
50%
nro. rango
45%
40%
Median: 1,1%
% answers
3,6
rango2
1 <=1
4
5
7
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
7,69%
4
1,1
46,15%
24
1,2
40,38%
21
1,3
5,77%
3
30
25
35%
20
30%
25%
15
20%
10
15%
10%
5
5%
0%
0
<=1
1,1
1,2
1,3
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
5-Year BCU in eleven months
Answers: 51
Concepto Periodo
Median: 1,3%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
30%
nro. rango
25%
20%
% answers
6,5
rango2
1 <=1
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=1,6
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
9,80%
5
9,80%
5
25,49%
13
23,53%
12
15,69%
8
5,88%
3
9,80%
5
14
12
10
8
15%
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
>=1,6
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
5-Year BCU in twenty three months forward
Answers: 50
Concepto Periodo
Median: 1,5%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
30%
nro. rango
25%
20%
% answers
7,5
rango2
1 <=1,2
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=1,8
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
20,00%
10
10,00%
5
10,00%
5
28,00%
14
10,00%
5
2,00%
1
20,00%
10
16
14
12
10
15%
8
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
>=1,8
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
5-Year BCP in two months
Answers: 52
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
45%
nro. rango
40%
35%
30%
Median: 4,1%
% answers
12,3
rango2
1 <=3,9
3
4
5
8 >=4,3
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
5,77%
3
4
15,38%
8
4,1
38,46%
20
4,2
30,77%
16
9,62%
5
25
BACK
20
15
25%
20%
10
15%
10%
5
5%
0%
0
<=3,9
4
4,1
4,2
>=4,3
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
5-Year BCP in eleven months
Answers: 51
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
25%
nro. rango
20%
15%
Median: 4,3%
% answers
21,5
rango2
1 <=4
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=4,6
4,1
4,2
4,3
4,4
4,5
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
11,76%
6
13,73%
7
23,53%
12
23,53%
12
9,80%
5
7,84%
4
9,80%
5
14
12
10
8
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=4
4,1
4,2
4,3
4,4
4,5
>=4,6
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
5-Year BCP in twenty three months forward
Answers: 50
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
30%
nro. rango
25%
20%
Median: 4,5%
% answers
22,5
rango2
1 <=4,2
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=4,8
4,3
4,4
4,5
4,6
4,7
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
24,00%
12
8,00%
4
10,00%
5
26,00%
13
8,00%
4
6,00%
3
18,00%
9
14
12
10
8
15%
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=4,2
4,3
4,4
4,5
4,6
4,7
>=4,8
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Exchange Rate in two months (CH $ per US$)
Answers: 55
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
25%
nro. rango
20%
15%
Median: $670
% answers
3350
rango2
1 <=655
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=685
660
665
670
675
680
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
14,55%
8
20,00%
11
12,73%
7
21,82%
12
7,27%
4
14,55%
8
9,09%
5
14
12
10
8
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=655
660
665
670
675
680
>=685
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Exchange Rate in eleven months (CH $ per US$)
Answers: 55
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
25%
nro. rango
20%
15%
Median: $680
% answers
3400
rango2
1 <=665
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=695
670
675
680
685
690
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
23,64%
13
10,91%
6
5,45%
3
18,18%
10
12,73%
7
9,09%
5
20,00%
11
14
12
BACK
10
8
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=665
670
675
680
685
690
>=695
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
Exchange Rate in twenty three months forward (CH $ per US$)
Answers: 54
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
40%
nro. rango
35%
30%
25%
Median: $680
% answers
3400
rango2
1 <=665
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=695
670
675
680
685
690
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
37,04%
20
5,56%
3
3,70%
2
11,11%
6
5,56%
3
12,96%
7
24,07%
13
25
20
15
20%
10
15%
10%
5
5%
0%
0
<=665
670
675
680
685
690
>=695
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
IMACEC (Monthly Activity Index) one month ago
Answers: 57
Concepto Periodo
Median: 0,9%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
35%
nro. rango
30%
25%
20%
% answers
4,6
rango2
1 <=0,6
2
3
4
5
7
8 >=1,3
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
1,2
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
29,82%
17
3,51%
2
5,26%
3
12,28%
7
7,02%
4
8,77%
5
33,33%
19
20
18
16
14
12
10
15%
8
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
1,2
>=1,3
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
GDP within calendar quarter of the survey
Answers: 57
Concepto Periodo
Median: 1,4%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
30%
nro. rango
25%
20%
% answers
7
rango2
1 <=1,1
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=1,7
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
12,28%
7
19,30%
11
8,77%
5
10,53%
6
14,04%
8
10,53%
6
24,56%
14
16
14
12
10
15%
8
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
>=1,7
BACK
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
GDP year 2016 (12-month change)
Answers: 57
Concepto Periodo
(Varios elementos)
Total general
30%
nro. rango
25%
Median: 1,6%
% answers
4,8
rango2
1 <=1,4
3
4
5
8 >=1,8
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
15,79%
9
1,5
28,07%
16
1,6
21,05%
12
1,7
22,81%
13
12,28%
7
18
16
BACK
14
20%
12
10
15%
8
10%
6
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
>=1,8
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
GDP year 2017 (12-month change)
Answers: 57
Concepto Periodo
Median: 2%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
35%
nro. rango
30%
25%
% answers
10
rango2
1 <=1,7
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=2,3
1,8
1,9
2
2,1
2,2
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
5,26%
3
14,04%
8
1,75%
1
31,58%
18
8,77%
5
14,04%
8
24,56%
14
20
18
BACK
16
14
12
20%
10
15%
8
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
<=1,7
1,8
1,9
2
2,1
2,2
>=2,3
Monthly Survey On Expectations August 2016
GDP year 2018 (12-month change)
Answers: 53
Concepto Periodo
Median: 2,8%
(Varios elementos)
Total general
45%
nro. rango
40%
35%
30%
% answers
14
rango2
1 <=2,5
2
3
4
5
6
8 >=3,1
2,6
2,7
2,8
2,9
3
Datos
% answers Nro. preguntas
33,96%
18
5,66%
3
5,66%
3
5,66%
3
1,89%
1
39,62%
21
7,55%
4
25
20
15
25%
20%
10
15%
10%
5
5%
0%
0
<=2,5
2,6
2,7
2,8
2,9
3
>=3,1
BACK