CONFERENCIAS PREVISTAS EN EL AÑO 2016 DPTO DE ESTADÍSTICA E INVESTIGACIÓN OPERATIVA, UPNA 1. Ponente: Elias T. Krainski (Norwegian University Science & Technology) y Haakon C. Bakka (Norwegian University of Science & Technology) Fecha: Lunes-Miércoles del 22-24 de febrero Tı́tulo: Curso derivadas parciales estocásticas Resumen: 2. Ponente: Thomas Nowak (University of Graz, Austria) Fecha: Miércoles 25 de mayo a las 12:30. Tı́tulo: Life-Cycle Planning in Closed-Loop Supply Chains: A Study of Refurbished Laptops Resumen: Waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) is one of the fastest growing waste streams. Therefore, the reduction of discarded electronic equipment is of immense importance in order to reduce virgin material consumption and hence the environmental impact associated with the production and consumption of consumer electronics. Using the market for new and refurbished laptops as a reference industry, a typical life-cycle of a laptop including refurbishment and resale of the returned product is modeled and analyzed in order to explore the related profitability. Therefore, we first investigate actual market prices of new and refurbished laptops using data gathered from bestbuy.com. Subsequently, we introduce a newsvendor model where we use the insights into pricing of these products obtained from the empirical study. The model integrates different reverse channels like recycling or disposal which have a crucial impact on the original equipment manufacturer’s optimal decision making. Our studies highlight how the return rate and fractions of returned cores that are refurbished by the OEM as well as new and refurbished product prices are interrelated and influence the OEMs production decision problem. K eywords:Closed-Loop Supply Chains; Newsvendor Models; Refurbishing; Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment 3. Ponente: Carlos Méndez (Universidad Litoral - CONICET, Argentina) Fecha: Jueves 9 de junio a las 12:30h Tı́tulo: Maritime logistics and transportation of multi-parcel chemical tankers Resumen: The cost-effective routing and scheduling of a fleet of multiparcel chemical tankers represents a central decision making process in 1 both chemical and shipping industries. Ships designed for the transport of liquid or gas in bulk are called tankers. Shippers seek to choose the cargos to transport and determine the optimal route that the ship should follow to maximize its profit. Due to determining the optimal assignment and routing decisions of a large set of cargos transported by a ship fleet is inherently NP-hard, real-world problems are either intractable or result in poor solutions when solving by pure optimization approaches. To overcome this limitation, a new continuous time precedence-based MILP mathematical formulation using heuristic-based algorithms and a column generation technique is proposed. The applicability and efficiency of the approaches are illustrated by solving a real case of study corresponding to a sea-cargo shipping company operating in South-East Asia. Computational results show notable improvements and better performance when compared to other alternative reported solution techniques. K eywords: Ship routing and scheduling, MILP-based approach, Heuristic techniques, Maritime transportation, Logistics 4. Ponente: Carlos Quintero Araujo (Universitat Oberta Catalunya, Barcelona) Fecha: Miércoles 22 de junio a las 12:30h Tı́tulo: Horizontal Cooperation in Logistics Network Design: Assessing Cost Reduction and Environmental Impact Resumen: This paper analyzes how different levels of horizontal cooperation (HC) practices can be employed in logistics network design (LND). We study the impact of non-cooperative, semi-cooperative, and full-cooperative scenarios on strategic and operational decisions such as: the number of facilities to be opened, the assignment of customers to facilities, and the corresponding vehicle routing plans. For each scenario, a different optimization problem arises and, therefore, solutions of different quality can be obtained. We also propose a biased-randomized metaheuristic to solve the location routing problem. An extensive set of numerical experiments illustrates the impact of HC practices on installation, delivery and environmental costs. K eywords: Biased randomization, integrated location routing problem, iterated local search 5. Ponente: Celia Carrasco Gil, Lilian Benitez Ruiz y Ana Ruis Apastegui (IES Benjamin de Tudela) Fecha: Domingo 15 de mayo. Entrega de premios fase autonomica Miércoles-Viernes del 29-1 julio. Fase nacional de Incubadora de Sondeos. Tı́tulo: El último invierno: raro pero no muy caluroso. Resumen: De manera reiterada estamos oyendo que este invierno habı́a sido muy caluroso. Y, aunque de forma intuitiva nos parezca que es ası́, la mejor forma de afirmarlo es disponer de datos y ver si es cierto o no. Los datos históricos de climatologı́a han sido proporcionados por el Gobierno de Navarra en su Web y por la Web de meteorologı́a. Se aplica la técnica del contraste de hipótesis y se estudian los parámetros de interés, con los que poder confrontar los datos históricos meteorológicos con los de este invierno. 2 6. Ponente: Eva K. Lee Fecha: Lunes 25 de julio a las 10:00h Tı́tulo: Computational Medicine and Big Data Analytic Resumen: Mathematical modeling and computational methods have long been cornerstones for advancement of business analytics in industrial, government, and military applications. They are playing key roles in advancing and transforming medicine and healthcare delivery. In particular, multi-source data system modeling and computational big data analytics and technologies play an increasingly important role in modern healthcare enterprise. Many problems can be formulated into mathematical models and can be analyzed using sophisticated optimization, decision analysis, and computational techniques. In this talk, we will share some of our successes in early disease diagnosis, precision medicine optimal treatment planning design, and healthcare operations through innovation in mathematical modeling and predictive big data analytics. 7. Ponente: Sally Brailsford Fecha: Lunes 25 de julio a las 15:00h Tı́tulo: Predicting patient flow in a pediatric intensive care unit Resumen: The US healthcare industry has been facing rising costs for many years. The Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin (CHW) in Milwaukee wished to know whether savings could be made if an observation unit were set up as an intermediate unit between the Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) and the Acute Care Unit. This arose from a concern that in future, insurance companies might refuse to pay for PICU level of care if the patient could have been safely treated elsewhere. This paper describes an Excel-based analytic tool which enables clinicians to identify patients who might be eligible for treatment outside the PICU, and then estimate the financial impact of relocating them. Data mining techniques were used to identify and group the patients/disease types selected for placement outside of the PICU, as well as key resources and tasks involved in patient care and outcomes. The study focused on one specific reason for admission, ingestion (accidental or deliberate) of toxic substances. A list of procedures requiring PICU level of care was established through discussion with the PICU physicians, and these were used to classify patients into two groups, those who should stay in the PICU and those who could be safely treated in the observation unit. The cost analysis showed that a predicted 87% savings could be made between the current situation and the best scenario, i.e. if CHW were able to identify and relocate all eligible patients. A subsequent MSc project has extended this work by using data available on admission to predict length of stay. This project also resulted in a user-friendly Excel-based tool that uses routine data from CHW information systems. 8. Ponente: Ying C MacNab Fecha: Jueves 1 de septiembre a las 12:00h Tı́tulo: On multidimensional Gaussian Markov Random fields and Bayesian computation 3 Resumen: Proposals of multivariate Gaussian Markov random field (MGMRF) models have been advanced in tandem with developments of relevant computational solutions and strategies. The symmetric and positivity conditions for a MGMRF, or a class of MGMRFs that are typically defined by full conditionals or as linear models of coregionalization, demand carefully considered parameterization for identification and related computational strategies. In this paper, some recent works on MGMRFs are reviewed, with in-depth discussions on strategies for, and challenges in, Bayesian computation. Within the context of analysis of multivariate spatial data on finite lattice in general, and in the context of Bayesian disease mapping and small area estimation in particular, we discuss MGMRFs as prior models or as data models within Bayesian hierarchical model framework. Several examples are presented to illustrate recently proposed computational solutions and unresolved challenges. 9. Ponente: Eva Vallada (Universidad Politécnica de Valencia) Fecha: Viernes 14 de octubre a las 12:30h Tı́tulo: Heurı́sticas para el problema de secuenciación en máquinas paralelas con un recurso adicional Resumen: El problema abordado consiste en secuenciar un conjunto de n trabajos que han de ser procesados en una máquina de un conjunto formado por m máquinas. Cada trabajo consiste en una única tarea que ha de realizarse en una de las máquinas. Las máquinas son no relacionadas, es decir, el tiempo de proceso de los trabajos en las máquinas es diferente en función de la máquina a la que se asigne. Además, se considera un recurso adicional (recursos humanos, moldes, herramientas), que es limitado. En este trabajo se proponen cinco heurı́sticas multi pasada para el problema de secuenciación en máquinas paralelas no relacionadas con un recurso adicional y el objetivo de minimizar el tiempo máximo de finalización o makespan. Los métodos propuestos tienen una parte constructiva común, basada en ocho reglas de asignación sin considerar la restricción del recurso adicional, por lo que la asignación obtenida es muy probable que no sea factible desde el punto de vista del recurso adicional. Se aplica un procedimiento de reparación con el objetivo de convertir en factible la asignación y se proponen diferentes búsquedas locales para mejorar la solución. Se realiza un extenso estudio computacional utilizando instancias pequeñas, medianas y grandes, obteniendo buenos resultados tanto desde el punto de vista de la eficacia como de la eficiencia. 10. Ponente: Virgilio Gomez-Rubio (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha) Fecha: Lunes 17 de octubre a las 10:30h Tı́tulo: Extending the Integrated Laplace Approximation Resumen: The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation and its associate R-INLA package provide a suitable framework for approximate Bayesian inference. In particular, R-INLA will fit complex Bayesian hierarchical models in a fraction of the time required by other computational intensive methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo. However, a limitation of INLA is that in order to fit a model it needs to be implemented within R-INLA. Also, INLA only provides marginal inference of the model 4 parameters and other related quantities. In this talk we will show how to extend INLA (and R-INLA) by combining it with MCMC. We will provide an easy way to extend the number of models that R-INLA can fit, as well as other other important topics such as (low dimension) multivariate inference and handling missing values in the covariates of regression models. 11. Ponente: Kris Braekers (Hasselt University, Belgium) Fecha: Miércoles 26 octubre a las 12:00h Tı́tulo: Meta-heuristic approaches for Dial-A-Ride Problems Resumen:Dial-A-Ride Problems (DARPs) arise in the context of demand responsive transportation. They are concerned with the design of efficient vehicle routes for transporting individual persons from specific origin to specific destination locations. Service providers should find a balance between economic objectives (minimizing costs) and the human perspective (offering high quality of service by adhering to strict time windows and maximum ride times). Although dial-a-ride services are currently provided in many large cities, these services are expected to become even more widely spread in the future due to the aging population and the trend towards the development of ambulatory health care services. This talk will highlight several meta-heuristic approaches that have been developed at Hasselt University to solve DARP variants. Considered extensions to the classical DARP include multiple depots, heterogeneous (and configurable) vehicles, multiple user types and driver consistency. Applied solution frameworks include local search based methods (threshold accepting, variable neighborhood descent) and large neighborhood search. The main scientific results from a computational point of view as well as lessons learned from a methodological point of view are presented. K eywords: Vehicle Routing; Dial-A-Ride Problem; Meta-heuristic; Threshold Accepting; Large Neighborhood Search 12. Ponente:Aljoscha Gruler (Open University of Catalonia, Spain) Fecha: Viernes 21 octubre a las 12:30h Tı́tulo: A simheuristic based on Variable Neighborhood Search for Waste Collection Problem under uncertainty Resumen: Ongoing population growth in cities and increasing garage production has made the optimization of waste collection a critical task for local government. Route planning for waste collection can be formulated as extension of the well-known Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP), for which a wide range of solution methodologies already exist in the literature. However, despite the fact that real-life applications are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, most works on waste collection focus on simplified, deterministic versions of the problem. This talk presents a hybrid simheuristic algorithm to solve the waste collection problem (WCP) with stochastic demands. First, an efficient Variable Neighborhood Search metaheuristic for the deterministic version of the problem is presented. Then, it is outlined how the combination of this algorithm with simulation constitutes an easy-to-implement approach to consider the WCP under input uncertainty. Finally, it will be shown how the application 5 of horizontal cooperation techniques between different waste management service providers can be a further advance to reduce the negative impacts of urban waste collection. K eywords: Waste Collection; Smart Cities; Metaheuristics; Simulation; Simheuristics 13. Ponente: Natalia Basan (Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Argentina) Fecha: Jueves 3 noviembre a las 12:30h Tı́tulo: Production scheduling optimization for power-intensive processes with time-sensitive electricity prices Resumen:Continuous power-intensive processes in air separation plant can take advantage of optimal production planning to reduce the consumption of electricity. In this work a solution approach is developed based on a discrete-time scheduling formulation that allows modeling and optimizing operating decisions either in a fixed or a rolling horizon scheme. The main goal of this contribution is to find an optimal hourly schedule for next week that minimizes total energy consumption cost while satisfying all operational constraints. The MILP model is tested on real-world electricity price and demand input data. The results show optimal solutions for the proposed methodology with a modest computational effort considering a one-hour time grid and one-week time horizon. K eywords: continuous power-intensive processes, air separation plant, scheduling, MILP model, energy consumption cost 14. Ponente: Fecha: Tı́tulo: Resumen: 6