Post results note Peores resultados aunque mejor

Fcc
Post results note
Spain/ Materials, Construction & Infrastructure
Investment Research
29 February 2016
Accumulate
Peores resultados aunque mejor deuda de la esperada
Recommendation unchanged
6.31
Share price: EUR
closing price as of 26/02/2016
Target price: EUR
7.00
Target Price unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg
FCC.MC/FCC SM
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)
Price high 12 mth (EUR)
Price low 12 mth (EUR)
Abs. perf. 1 mth
Abs. perf. 3 mth
Abs. perf. 12 mth
3,966,934
25,237.14
11.44
5.42
0.3%
0.4%
-40.0%
Market capitalisation (EURm)
Current N° of shares (m)
Free float
1,644
261
44%
Key financials (EUR)
Sales (m)
EBITDA (m)
EBITDA margin
EBIT (m)
EBIT margin
Net Profit (adj.)(m)
ROCE
Net debt/(cash) (m)
Net Debt Equity
Net Debt/EBITDA
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int)
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
EV/EBIT
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
OpFCF yield
Dividend yield
EPS (adj.)
BVPS
DPS
12/14
6,334
804
12.7%
(346)
nm
(133)
-5.6%
5,016
nm
6.2
2.1
1.2
9.4
9.4
nm
nm
16.8
3.6%
0.0%
(0.33)
0.68
0.00
12/15e
6,530
803
12.3%
381
5.8%
70
4.7%
5,713
nm
7.1
2.2
1.1
8.7
8.7
18.4
38.7
10.0
2.7%
0.0%
0.18
0.68
0.00
12/16e
6,881
854
12.4%
438
6.4%
63
5.6%
4,879
3.7
5.7
2.3
0.9
7.1
7.1
13.8
39.7
2.3
5.2%
0.0%
0.16
2.75
0.00
vvdsvdvsdy
12
11
10
Los hechos: FCC ha publicado unas pérdidas netas superiores a las previstas (EUR
-46,3m vs -0,4mE) por mayores provisiones, cierta recuperación del EBITDA (+1,3%)
y una deuda que es mejor de la prevista (EUR 5.473m vs EUR 5.713mE) por mejor
circulante (EUR -35,7m vs EUR -265,6mE). Destaca el crecimiento internacional
(+9,8% en ventas) y la evolución de Agua (+9,2%).
Nuestro análisis: Destacamos: 1) EBITDA. Crece ligeramente a pesar de los
descensos de construcción (ventas domésticas -13,4%) y cemento (por menor venta
de derechos). El margen se mantiene estable. Destaca Agua (+9,2%); 2) WC.
Sorprende de forma positiva (EUR -35,7m vs EUR -265.6mE). Las deudas pendientes
con Hacienda/SS ascienden a EUR 109m/EUR 26m en 2016/17; 3) 2016. No dan
objetivos aunque ven tendencia positiva en MA/Agua al igual que en circulante.
Esperan ventas estables en construcción; 4) Deuda Tramo B, EUR 502m. Esperan
poderlo reducir entre EUR 372m/EUR 402m. Para el resto (EUR 130m/EUR 100m)
existen 3 opciones, convertirlo en acciones en 2018, su refinanciación, su integración
en el tramo A, ésta última opción es la que pensamos cuenta con más opciones; 5)
Deuda neta. Mejor de lo esperado (EUR 5.473m vs EUR 5.713mE). Se incrementa
un 9,1% por la reclasificación de activos financieros (EUR 193m), por el tipo de
cambio (EUR 83m, pagos a Hacienda y reducción de factoring (hasta EUR 108m). Se
espera una reducción de deuda de EUR 1.000m en 2016 tras haberse completado la
ampliación de capital (EUR 709m); 6) Realia. No acudirán a la ampliación; 7)
Provisiones. No se esperan importes adicionales en 2016.
Construction
Services
Water
Cement
Adjustments
SALES
Construction
Services
Water
Cement
Adjustments
EBITDA
Amortisations/Other
Financial result
Other results
Associates
Ordinary Result
Taxes
Minoritaries/Other
Net Income
2014
2,076.1
2,805.0
954.0
542.9
-43.9
6,334.1
2014
98.2
418.3
208.4
104.8
-25.7
804.0
-1,149.6
-375.8
-12.7
-84.8
-818.9
64.2
30.3
-724.4
2015
%
1,992.9
-4.0%
2,855.6
1.8%
1,033.5
8.3%
580.4
6.9%
13.6
-131.0%
6,476.0
2.2%
2015
%
75.8
-22.8%
425.3
1.7%
227.5
9.2%
94.3
-10.0%
-8.3
-67.7%
814.6
1.3%
-490.8
-57.3%
-354.3
-5.7%
-10.6
-16.5%
35.4
-141.7%
-5.7
-99.3%
40.8
-36.4%
-81.4
-368.6%
-46.3
-93.6%
2015e
Published/Estimated
2,076.8
-4.0%
2,896.2
-1.4%
1,027.9
0.5%
572.6
1.4%
-43.9
-131.0%
6,529.6
-0.8%
2015e
Published/Estimated
81.0
-6.4%
431.5
-1.4%
226.1
0.6%
85.9
9.8%
-22.0
-62.3%
802.5
1.5%
-421.3
16.5%
-359.3
-1.4%
0.9
37.0
-4.3%
59.8
-109.5%
27.0
51.1%
-87.2
-6.7%
-0.4
11475.0%
Source: FCC
9
8
7
6
5
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
Source: Factset
May 15
FCC
Jun 15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)
Shareholders: Carlos Slim 27%; EK 22%; Bill Gates 6%;
Conclusión: Resultados mixtos en donde destaca la evolución del circulante. La
ampliación de capital permitirá reducir en gran parte el tramo B de la deuda a la vez
que permitirá que se refinancie la deuda de Cementos. Mantenemos la visión positiva
en el valor
Analyst(s): Rafael Fernández de Heredia
+34 91 436 78 08
[email protected]
For company description please see summary table footnote
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report
Produced by:
Distributed by the Members of ESN
(see last page of this report)
All ESN research is available on Bloomberg (“ESNR”),
Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, FactSet
Fcc
Fcc: Summary tables
PROFIT & LOSS (EURm)
Sales
Cost of Sales & Operating Costs
Non Recurrent Expenses/Income
EBITDA
EBITDA (adj.)*
Depreciation
EBITA
EBITA (adj)*
Amortisations and Write Downs
EBIT
EBIT (adj.)*
Net Financial Interest
Other Financials
Associates
Other Non Recurrent Items
Earnings Before Tax (EBT)
Tax
Tax rate
Discontinued Operations
Minorities
Net Profit (reported)
Net Profit (adj.)
12/2012
11,152
-10,399
0.0
753
753
-638
116
116
0.0
-403
-403
-445
-3.0
-128
-59.9
-1,039
164
15.8%
-217
64.2
-1,028
-218
12/2013
6,726
-6,007
0.0
720
720
-424
296
296
0.0
-303
-303
-439
-11.2
59.0
-66.6
-761
136
17.8%
-905
24.1
-1,506
-330
12/2014
6,334
-5,530
0.0
804
804
-404
400
400
0.0
-346
-346
-376
0.0
-84.8
-12.7
-819
64.2
7.8%
21.2
9.1
-724
-133
12/2015e
6,530
-5,727
0.0
803
803
-405
397
397
0.0
381
381
-359
0.0
37.0
0.9
59.9
27.0
28.0%
-99.3
12.0
-0.4
70.4
12/2016e
6,881
-6,028
1.0
854
853
-416
438
437
0.0
438
437
-373
0.0
12.9
0.0
77.8
-19.5
25.0%
0.0
5.0
63.4
63.4
12/2017e
7,417
-6,483
2.0
934
932
-425
510
508
0.0
510
508
-399
0.0
13.1
0.0
124
-31.0
25.0%
0.0
-3.0
90.0
90.0
CASH FLOW (EURm)
Cash Flow from Operations before change in NWC
Change in Net Working Capital
Cash Flow from Operations
Capex
Net Financial Investments
Free Cash Flow
Dividends
Other (incl. Capital Increase & share buy backs)
Change in Net Debt
NOPLAT
12/2012
467
-146
321
-467
-62.8
-209
-153
-449
-810
-339
12/2013
284
257
542
-467
272
347
0.0
765
1,112
-249
12/2014
384
22.3
407
-300
42.1
149
-4.9
816
959
-318
12/2015e
418
-70.6
348
-300
-118
-70.0
0.0
-627
-697
275
12/2016e
509
-123
386
-300
-67.0
19.1
0.0
816
835
328
12/2017e
554
66.4
620
-300
-23.0
297
0.0
-61.0
236
381
BALANCE SHEET & OTHER ITEMS (EURm)
Net Tangible Assets
Net Intangible Assets (incl.Goodwill)
Net Financial Assets & Other
Total Fixed Assets
Inventories
Trade receivables
Other current assets
Cash (-)
Total Current Assets
Total Assets
Shareholders Equity
Minority
Total Equity
Long term interest bearing debt
Provisions
Other long term liabilities
Total Long Term Liabilities
Short term interest bearing debt
Trade payables
Other current liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Net Capital Employed
Net Working Capital
12/2012
4,691
3,822
3,541
12,054
1,129
4,868
84.0
-1,603
7,684
19,738
1,260
462
1,722
4,650
1,115
2,778
8,542
4,041
2,411
3,022
9,474
19,738
12,702
648
12/2013
3,751
2,857
4,007
10,615
798
2,734
75.8
-1,380
4,987
15,602
3.2
240
243
1,137
1,092
3,153
5,382
6,218
3,414
345
9,977
15,602
10,463
-152
12/2014
3,176
2,968
2,713
8,856
761
2,399
89.4
-1,918
5,167
14,023
272
224
495
715
1,158
1,758
3,631
6,218
3,241
437
9,897
14,023
8,427
-429
12/2015e
3,340
2,815
2,713
8,869
784
2,612
92.1
-1,918
5,406
14,274
271
212
483
1,413
1,224
1,090
3,726
6,218
3,390
457
10,065
14,274
8,510
-359
12/2016e
3,444
2,663
2,713
8,820
826
2,960
97.1
-1,918
5,801
14,621
1,097
207
1,304
578
1,290
1,112
2,980
6,218
3,630
489
10,337
14,621
8,584
-236
12/2017e
3,495
2,510
2,713
8,718
891
3,170
105
-1,918
6,083
14,801
1,187
210
1,397
342
1,356
1,022
2,719
6,218
3,937
531
10,685
14,801
8,416
-302
GROWTH & MARGINS
Sales growth
EBITDA (adj.)* growth
EBITA (adj.)* growth
EBIT (adj)*growth
12/2012
-5.1%
-39.8%
-81.0%
n.m.
12/2013
-39.7%
-4.5%
156.1%
n.m.
12/2014
-5.8%
11.7%
34.9%
n.m.
12/2015e
3.1%
-0.2%
-0.6%
n.m.
12/2016e
5.4%
6.2%
10.0%
14.6%
12/2017e
7.8%
9.3%
16.2%
16.2%
Page 2
Fcc
Fcc: Summary tables
GROWTH & MARGINS
Net Profit growth
EPS adj. growth
DPS adj. growth
EBITDA (adj)* margin
EBITA (adj)* margin
EBIT (adj)* margin
12/2012
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
6.8%
1.0%
n.m.
12/2013
n.m.
n.m.
12/2014
n.m.
n.m.
12/2015e
n.m.
n.m.
12/2016e
-10.0%
-10.0%
12/2017e
42.1%
42.1%
10.7%
4.4%
n.m.
12.7%
6.3%
n.m.
12.3%
6.1%
5.8%
12.4%
6.3%
6.3%
12.6%
6.8%
6.8%
RATIOS
Net Debt/Equity
Net Debt/EBITDA
Interest cover (EBITDA/Fin.interest)
Capex/D&A
Capex/Sales
NWC/Sales
ROE (average)
ROCE (adj.)
WACC
ROCE (adj.)/WACC
12/2012
4.1
9.4
1.7
73.2%
4.2%
5.8%
-12.0%
-3.7%
5.0%
-0.7
12/2013
n.m.
8.3
1.6
110.2%
6.9%
-2.3%
-52.3%
-3.9%
5.2%
-0.7
12/2014
n.m.
6.2
2.1
74.2%
4.7%
-6.8%
-96.6%
-5.6%
6.9%
-0.8
12/2015e
n.m.
7.1
2.2
74.0%
4.6%
-5.5%
25.9%
4.7%
5.7%
0.8
12/2016e
3.7
5.7
2.3
72.2%
4.4%
-3.4%
9.3%
5.6%
6.1%
0.9
12/2017e
3.3
5.0
2.3
70.6%
4.0%
-4.1%
7.9%
6.7%
6.5%
1.0
PER SHARE DATA (EUR)***
Average diluted number of shares
EPS (reported)
EPS (adj.)
BVPS
DPS
12/2012
399.1
-2.58
-0.55
3.16
0.00
12/2013
399.1
-3.77
-0.83
0.01
0.00
12/2014
399.1
-1.81
-0.33
0.68
0.00
12/2015e
399.1
0.00
0.18
0.68
0.00
12/2016e
399.1
0.16
0.16
2.75
0.00
12/2017e
399.1
0.23
0.23
2.97
0.00
VALUATION
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (adj.)*
EV/EBITA
EV/EBITA (adj.)*
EV/EBIT
EV/EBIT (adj.)*
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
Total Yield Ratio
EV/CE
OpFCF yield
OpFCF/EV
Payout ratio
Dividend yield (gross)
12/2012
0.6
9.4
9.4
60.9
60.9
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
2.1
0.0%
0.8
-17.1%
-2.1%
0.0%
0.0%
12/2013
1.0
9.6
9.6
23.4
23.4
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
0.3%
1.1
5.1%
1.1%
0.0%
0.0%
12/2014
1.2
9.4
9.4
18.8
18.8
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
16.8
0.0%
1.3
3.6%
1.4%
0.0%
0.0%
12/2015e
1.1
8.7
8.7
17.6
17.6
18.4
18.4
38.7
10.0
0.0%
1.2
2.7%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
12/2016e
0.9
7.1
7.1
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
39.7
2.3
0.0%
1.0
5.2%
1.4%
0.0%
0.0%
12/2017e
0.8
6.2
6.2
11.4
11.4
11.4
11.4
28.0
2.1
0.0%
1.0
19.5%
5.5%
0.0%
0.0%
EV AND MKT CAP (EURm)
Price** (EUR)
Outstanding number of shares for main stock
Total Market Cap
Net Debt
o/w Cash & Marketable Securities (-)
o/w Gross Debt (+)
Other EV components
Enterprise Value (EV adj.)
Source: Company, BEKA Finance estimates.
12/2012
6.68
127.3
851
7,088
-1,603
8691
-886
7,053
12/2013
11.54
127.3
1,469
5,976
-1380
7,355
-513
6,932
12/2014
11.44
260.6
2,982
5,016
-1918
6,934
-475
7,523
12/2015e
6.82
260.6
1,777
5,713
-1918
7,631
-487
7,003
12/2016e
6.31
260.6
1,644
4,879
-1918
6,796
-492
6,030
12/2017e
6.31
260.6
1,644
4,642
-1918
6,560
-489
5,797
Notes
* Where EBITDA (adj.) or EBITA (adj)= EBITDA (or EBITA) -/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income and where EBIT (adj)= EBIT-/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income - PPA amortisation
**Price (in local currency): Fiscal year end price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecasted years
Sector: Materials, Construction & Infrastructure/Construction
Company Description: FCC is the leader in waste management in Spain, ranks third in Europe and is one of the main players in UK. In
Spain, FCC is the second largest company in water management and is the fifth in Europe. It is also the leader in cement in Spain and
is also the 3rd largest contractor
Page 3
Fcc
ESN Recommendation System
The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a
total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement) over a
12 month time horizon.
The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy (B),
Accumulate (A), Neutral (N), Reduce (R) and Sell (S).
Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the
stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.
Meaning of each recommendation or rating:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 5% to 15% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to +5% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to -15% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a change of analyst covering the stock or a capital
operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of
the issuer is or could be involved
Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of
ESN) or a related party of the issuer
Certain flexibility on the limits of total return bands is permitted especially during higher phases of
volatility on the markets
BEKA Finance Ratings Breakdown
Reduce
4%
Neutral
18%
Sell
0%
Buy
48%
Accumulate
30%
Page 4
Fcc
Recommendation history for FCC
Date
12-Feb-16
18-Dec-15
17-Dec-15
18-Aug-15
09-Apr-15
28-Nov-14
30-Oct-13
26-Jul-13
11-Apr-13
Recommendation
Accumulate
Accumulate
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Accumulate
Buy
Buy
Target price
7.00
6.92
6.92
9.45
11.79
12.27
13.06
8.42
6.35
Price at change date
6.44
6.94
5.42
8.11
11.15
11.21
11.90
7.33
5.16
Source: Factset & ESN, price data adjusted for stock splits.
This chart shows BEKA Finance continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. Current analyst:
Rafael Fernández de Heredia (since 26/10/2006)
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
15
15 15
15
15
15
Price history
Buy
Accumulat
Jul
15
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
Target price history
Neut
Reduce
Sell
Not rated
Information regarding Market Abuse and Conflicts of Interests and recommendation history available in our web
page: www.bekafinance.com and our offices
The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled by BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., from
sources believed to be reliable. This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell
relevant securities. BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., will not take any responsibility whatsoever for losses which may
derive from use of the present document or its contents, BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., can occasionally have
positions in some of the securities mentioned in this report, through its trading portfolio or negotiation.
Additionally, there can exist a commercial relation between BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., and the mentioned
companies.
As of the date of this report, BEKA Finance S.V., S.A.,
• acts as agent or liquidity provider for the following companies: AB Biotics; Bioorganic Research
Services SA; Carbures Europa SA; Euroepes S.A., Facephi Biometría SA., Lleidanetworks Serveis
Telematics SA., NBI Bearings Europe S.A., Seafood Global Processor SA.; Trajano Iberia Socimi, SA:;
• has in the last 12 months, participated as lead or co-lead manager in corporate operations with the
following companies: Aena; Dogi International Fabrics SA; Lleidanetworks Serveis Telematics SA.NBI
Bearings Europe S.A.¸
• has, during the last year, performed a significant amount of business with: Bankia; Carbures Europa
SA; Ferrovial.
• has a contractual relationship to provide financial services, through which BEKA Finance S.V.,S.A.,
executes orders on the treasury stocks of the following companies: CaixaBank S.A., Grupo Ezentis S.A;
Sacyr SA.
• has a liquidity contract as outlined by the CNMV's Circular 3/2007 with: FCC; Hispania Activos
Inmobiliarios, S.A., Indra Sistemas; Sacyr.
Page 5
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www.bekafinance.com regulated by CNMV - Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores
www.caixabi.pt regulated by the CMVM - Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários
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Fcc
Spain
Materials, Construction & Infrastructure
Banca Akros S.p.A.
Viale Eginardo, 29
20149 MILANO
Italy
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equinet Bank AG
Gräfstraße 97
60487 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
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Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299
BEKA Finance
C/ Marques de Villamagna 3
28001 Madrid
Spain
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Investment Bank of Greece
32 Aigialeias Str & Paradissou,
151 25 Maroussi,
Greece
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Caixa-Banco de Investimento
Rua Barata Salgueiro, nº 33
1269-057 Lisboa
Portugal
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Fax: +351 21 389 68 98
Pohjola Bank plc
P.O.Box 308
FI- 00013 Pohjola
Finland
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Fax: +358 10 252 2703
CM - CIC Market Solutions
6, avenue de Provence
75441 Paris
Cedex 09
France
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Fax: +33 1 53 48 82 25
SNS Securities N.V.
Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162
P.O.Box 235
1000 AE Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Phone: +31 20 550 8500
Fax: +31 20 626 8064