Valor de las Transacciones en México

Retos y oportunidades en la
adquisición de negocios
11 de marzo de 2014
Número de Transacciones en México por
Sector en 2013
Número de Transacciones por Sector en 2013
70
60
60
50
40
36
35
30
20
17
15
9
10
2
4
7
3
6
0
Fuente: S&P Capital IQ (Incluye transacciones sin información sobre valor de la transacción)
Page 2
Transacciones llevadas a cabo en México en
2013
Valor de las Transacciones en México
(Cifras en millones de dólares)
$4,000
30
$3,733
$3,551
$3,500
25
24
$3,000
21
$2,500
17
$1,891
15
16
$2,000
$1,724
18
19
20
18
15
15
13
$1,500
10
$1,055
10
9
$970
$1,000
$500
$766
$404
$678
5
$470
$444
$291
0
$-
Valor de las transacciones
Número de transacciones
Valor de las Transacciones en 2013: USD $15,976 millones
Fuente: S&P Capital IQ (Incluye transacciones sin información sobre valor de la transacción)
Page 3
Inversión Extranjera Directa en México
Inversión Extranjera Directa Total
(Cifras en millones de dólares)
$30,000.0
$28,234
$27,868
80.7%
$25,000.0
100.00%
80.00%
$23,805
$22,632
60.00%
$20,000.0
$16,737
40.00%
35.2%
$15,621
20.00%
$15,000.0
5.2%
0.0%
0.00%
$10,000.0
-20.00%
$5,000.0
-34.4%
-40.00%
-39.9%
-60.00%
$0.0
2008
2009
2010
Inversión Extranjera Directa
2011
2012
Crecimiento Porcentual
*Contempla la inversión extranjera directa en México hasta el tercer trimestre del 2013
Fuente: Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía e Informática (“INEGI”)
Page 4
2013*
IED y Número de Transacciones en México
IED y número de Transacciones en México
200
195
180
80.7%
100.00%
80.00%
160
60.00%
140
120
35.2%
100
97
80
86
20.00%
5.2%
72
0.0%
60
40.00%
76
0.00%
59
-20.00%
40
-34.4%
-40.00%
-39.9%
20
-60.00%
0
2008
2009
2010
Número de transacciones
Fuente: S&P Capital IQ e INEGI
Page 5
2011
2012
Crecimiento Porcecntual IED
2013*
Economic outlook
Page 6
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
Confidence in the global economy is rising
What is your perspective on the state of the global economy today?
Global
Strongly
improving
Mexico
3%
4%
2%
Strongly
improving
62%
Modestly
improving
47%
20%
2%
6%
0%
63%
Modestly
improving
37%
34%
24%
Stable
14%
Stable
36%
33%
33%
47%
10%
11%
Modestly
declining
Strongly
declining
21%
18%
Modestly
declining
27%
1%
2%
4%
Strongly
declining
30%
0%
6%
3%
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
►
65% of Mexican executives think that the global economy is improving compared with 51% six months ago
►
Executives who see the economy declining falls from 24% in April to 21% in October
Page 7
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
A majority expects improvement in global
deal volumes over next 12 months
What is your expectation for M&A/deal volumes in the next 12 months? – At global Level
Global
Return to historic highs
2%
3%
Return to historic highs
9%
Strongly improve
58%
52%
26%
23%
Remain the same
Strongly decline
0%
0%
16%
18%
Strongly improve
17%
Modestly improve
Modestly decline
Mexico
4%
4%
25%
27%
Remain the same
Modestly decline
1%
1%
52%
46%
Modestly improve
Strongly decline
7%
6%
0%
3%
Oct-13
Apr-13
► 68% of Mexican companies expect deal volumes to improve, due to alignment of core fundamentals: positive
economic sentiment, credit availability, the imperative for growth and the expectation to create jobs
► 7% expect a decline
► Top 3 sectors expecting improvement Technology, Oil & Gas, Mining & Metals
► Top 3 countries expecting improvement China, Spain, France
Page 8
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
Expectation for deal volumes at the
local level
What is your expectation for M&A/deal volumes in the next 12 months? – At local Level
Mexico
Return to historic highs
0%
3%
5%
Strongly improve
21%
45%
Modestly improve
40%
39%
Remain the same
24%
11%
Modestly decline
Strongly decline
9%
0%
Oct-13
3%
Apr-13
►
Locally, 50% of Mexican executives expect deal volumes to increase in the next year compared to 64% in April
Page 9
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
Acquisition appetite rises – fueled by
improvement in asset quality
Do you expect your company to pursue
acquisitions in the next 12 months?
Level of confidence at the global level
Global
Mexico
Expectations to pursue an acquisition
Global
50%
Mexico
Likelihood of
closing
acquisitions
29%
29%
35%
30%
Quality of
acquisition
opportunities
20%
10%
oct-12
45%
51%
43%
53%
Quality of
acquisition
opportunities
39%
30%
25%
46%
Likelihood of
closing
acquisitions
32%
29%
39%
40%
42%
64%
43%
24%
abr-13
oct-13
Number of
acquisition
opportunities
61%
50%
37%
50%
Number of
acquisition
opportunities
Oct-13
48%
72%
Apr-13
Oct-12
► With core fundamentals in place to support M&A, 39% of Mexican companies expect to pursue an acquisition,
compared with 29% a year ago
► There has been a notable decrease over the last year in the number (50% at Oct13 vs. 72% at Oct12) and likelihood
of deals closing (46% vs. 51%),
Page 10
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
Level of confidence at the local level
Please indicate your level of confidence in the following at the local level
Mexico
38%
Likelihood of closing acquisitions
48%
38%
34%
Quality of acquisition opportunities
64%
65%
44%
Number of acquisition opportunities
67%
62%
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
► There is decreasing sentiment locally in the number, quality and likelihood of deals closing
Page 11
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
Globally, 35% of executives expect to pursue acquisitions
in the near-term, but appetite varies by sector
Global
Mexico
Life Sciences
Financial Services
45%
Oil & Gas
42%
Automotive
Consumer Products
40%
35%
Consumer Products
34%
43%
Mexico
Automotive
Global
44%
39%
29%
Technology
Financial Services
Power & Utilities
Mining & Metals
33%
29%
27%
-
23%
►
Export led recovery drives sector M&A appetite
►
Increased appetite appears to be driven by renewed confidence in economic and employment
growth in the key sectors, and a strong desire to invest in new markets, or to exploit existing
products and services more
Page 12
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
Top-line growth and share gains – rather than efficiencies
– are the predominant drivers for acquisitions
What are the main drivers of your company’s planned acquisition in your chosen market/country?
(Select two)
Global
Mexico
65%
61%
55%
Gain share in new markets (product or
geography)
61%
Gain share in existing markets
Reduce cost and improve
profitability/margin
Access to technology/intellectual
property
Leverage distribution networks
45%
46%
14%
21%
26%
14%
14%
13%
11%
17%
14%
53%
Gain share in existing markets
25%
67%
47%
50%
Gain share in new markets (product
or geography)
33%
24%
Leverage distribution networks
13%
11%
18%
Reduce cost and improve
profitability/margin
Access to technology/intellectual
property
50%
11%
0%
0%
0%
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
► Gaining share in new and existing markets are the top two drivers for planned acquisition activity
► Far fewer see acquisitions as a way to reduce cost/improve margins
Page 13
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
Trend toward larger deals as expectations for
growth accelerate
What is the expected deal size?
Global
oct-13
abr-13
oct-12
27%
Mexico
54%
35%
14%
53%
38%
46%
US$0 - US$50m
5%
oct-13
6% 6%
abr-13
9%
US$51m – US$500m
7%
oct-12
US$501m – US$1b
24%
76%
49%
22%
13%
56%
0%
25%
0%
13%
22%
Over US$1bn
►
Expectations for deals between US$51m–US$500m have greatly increased, from 13% six months ago to 76%;
while smaller deals (<US$51m) have fallen to just 24%
►
Diminishing growth/returns from organic growth, are expected to drive companies toward larger deals
►
Top sectors expected to do deals greater than US$501m are Financial Services, Mining & Metals, Life Sciences, Oil
& Gas, Power & Utilities
Page 14
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
Top investment destinations span emerging
and developed markets
Which are the top 5 countries (outside your local market) in which your company is most likely
to invest?
Oct-2013
1. US
Top destinations
Global
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
India
Brazil
China
Canada
US
Mexico
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
US
Colombia
Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
5. Costa Rica
2. Colombia
3. Brazil
4. Chile
Top 5 destination countries
►
A number of factors are influencing capital flow decisions, including geographic proximity, risk aversion, existing
ties, receptiveness of local governments and regulatory environment
Page 15
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
Business unit sales continue to be the
predominant structure for divestments
What form do you expect your divestments to take?
Global
Mexico
51%
Sale of business unit
Contribution of business unit to joint
venture
Sale of entire business
Spin/IPO of business unit
38%
18%
65%
Sale of business unit
20%
14%
Contribution of business unit to joint
venture
16%
17%
60%
14%
Sale of entire business
17%
14%
29%
Spin/IPO of business unit
20%
7%
0%
Oct-13
Apr-13
►
65% of Mexican companies that plan to divest expect to sell a business unit
►
7% expect to exit through a spin/IPO;14% expect a full business sale, compared with 20% six months ago
Page 16
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
Consideraciones fiscales
Page 17
Transacciones – Reformas relevantes
►
Ganancias de Capital en Bolsa PF y Extranjeros 10% cedular
►
Excención con tratados
►
Ajustes a mecánica de costo fiscal de acciones
►
Ganancias de capital para accionistas extranjeros puede ser de hasta
35%
►
Se elimina la exención en venta de inmuebles para fondos de
pensiones extranjeros
►
Se elimina la Deducción Inmediata
►
Se eliminan las SIBRAS
►
Régimen de maquiladoras menos atractivo
Page 18
Transacciones Inbound - Distribución de
dividendos
►
10% tasa de retención sobre dividendos distribuidos a
partir de 2014
►
Posible exención o reducción en tasa de retención
conforme tratados internacionales aplicables
►
Aplica 10% a ciertas reducciones de capital, entre otras
►
Page 19
Implicaciones en compras de negocios a personas físicas
mediante reducciones?
Presentation title
Transacciones Outbound
►
Cambios en acreditamiento de impuestos pagados en el
extranjero
►
►
Falta definición de “ingresos de fuente extranjera”
Directo:
►
►
►
Indirecto:
►
►
►
Page 20
limitante “por país”
¿atribución de deducciones por país?
Continúa limitante de dos niveles
Participación directa de 10% y 5% de participación indirecta en capital
por 6 meses
Acuerdo amplío de información con país participación indirecta
Transacciones Outbound
►
Indirecto (cont.):
►
Se aclara método de cálculo de límites
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
Page 21
“monto proporcional” por fórmulas (ej. evitar referencia circular)
“sin disminuir la retención”
Tipo de cambio del ejercicio que corresponda la utilidad con cargo a la cual
se pague el dividendo.
Cálculo de montos proporcionales “por cada ejercicio”
Suma de crédito directo e indirecto no exceda del ISR mexicano
Excedentes de crédito directo e indirecto acreditables contra ISR
pagado por distribución de utilidades
Impuesto no acreditable es no deducible
Criterios SAT “ISR pagado en el extranjero”
Auditoría | Asesoría de Negocios | Fiscal-Legal | Fusiones y Adquisiciones
Acerca de EY
EY es líder global en servicios de aseguramiento, asesoría, impuestos y transacciones. Las
perspectivas y servicios de calidad que entregamos ayudan a generar confianza y seguridad en
los mercados de capital y en las economías de todo el mundo. Desarrollamos líderes
extraordinarios que se unen para cumplir nuestras promesas a todas las partes interesadas. Al
hacerlo, jugamos un papel fundamental en construir un mejor entorno de negocios para nuestra
gente, clientes y comunidades.
Para obtener más información acerca de nuestra organización, visite el sitio www.ey.com/mx
© 2014 Mancera, S.C.
Integrante Ernst & Young Global
Derechos reservados
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NUESTRAS OFICINAS
CLAVE
TELÉFONO
NUESTRAS OFICINAS
CLAVE
TELÉFONO
AGUASCALIENTES
449
912-82-01
MEXICALI
686
568-45-53
5283-13-00
CANCÚN
998
884-98-75
MÉXICO, D.F.
55
CHIHUAHUA
614
425-35-70
MONTERREY
81
8152-18-00
CIUDAD JUÁREZ
656
648-16-10
NAVOJOA
642
422-70-77
CIUDAD OBREGÓN
644
413-32-30
PUEBLA
222
237-99-22
216-64-29
CULIACÁN
667
714-90-88
QUERÉTARO
442
GUADALAJARA
33
3884-61-00
REYNOSA
899
929-57-07
HERMOSILLO
662
260-83-60
SAN LUIS POTOSÍ
444
825-72-75
LEÓN
477
717-70-62
TIJUANA
664
681-78-44
LOS MOCHIS
668
818-40-33
TORREÓN
871
713-89-01
MÉRIDA
999
926-14-50
VERACRUZ
229
922-57-55
Transacciones llevadas a cabo en México
en 2013
Enero
Transacción de
mayor tamaño en
USD$ (millones)
$
Target
Grupo Yoli, S.A.
de C.V.
749
Febrero
$
2,900
Marzo
$
404
Compañía Cervecera
Banco Mercantil
de Coahuila, S.A. de
Del Norte, S.A.
C.V.
Julio
Agosto
Transacción de
mayor tamaño en
USD$ (millones)
$ 1,818
Target
A Portfolio of 49
Grupo Devlyn
Commercial Real
S.A.P.I. de C.V.
Estate Properties
$
371
Abril
$
Federal
Penitentiaries in
Morelos and
Chiapas
Septiembre
$
625
Wal-Mart de
Mexico SAB De
CV,
328
Mayo
$
275
29 Industrial
Properties and
Four Territorials
Reservations
Noviembre
$
105
858
Diciembre
$
346
2.4 Million Square
Grupo Casa Saba
Feet of Mexican
SAB de CV,
Property Portfolio
Fuente: S&P Capital IQ (Incluye transacciones sin información de valor de la transacción)
Page 23
$
Grupo Financiero
Philip Morris
Inbursa, S.A.B. de
Mexico, SA de CV
C.V.
Octubre
$
700
Junio
Survey demographics
Page 24
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
Survey demographics
What are your company’s annual global
revenues in US$?
Mexico
Global
$5bn or more
$5bn or more
27%
$1bn to $5bn
$1bn to $5bn
$250m to
$500m
Global
41%
Mexico
C-level executive
48%
C-level executive
14%
24%
9%
$250m to
$500m
Less than
$250m
19%
Head of BU/dept.
Head of BU/dept.
32%
9%
SVP/VP/Director
SVP/VP/Director
20%
Mexico
Global
Publicly listed
65%
Privately owned
20%
Publicly listed
7%
Family-owned
Government/Stateowned enterprise
5%
Government/Stateowned enterprise
3%
9th Capital Confidence Barometer
48%
Privately owned
Family-owned
Private equity portfolio
company
30%
27%
What best describes your company ownership?
Page 25
50%
30%
$500m to $1bn
$500m to
$1bn
What is your position in the
organization?
Private equity portfolio
company
27%
18%
5%
2%
20%
Proportion of top industries represented
Global
Mexico
Consumer Products
Financial Services
Financial Services
Automotive
Power & Utilities
Consumer Products
Technology
Life Sciences
Automotive
Public sector
Life Sciences
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas
Retail & wholesale
Mining & Metals
Diversified Industrial
Products
Diversified Industrial Products
Technology
Construction
Media & Entertainment
Page 26
9th Capital Confidence Barometer