US Agricultural Prices and Policies Adjusting to a Lower Price

US Agricultural Prices and Policies
Adjusting to a Lower Price Environment
Seth Meyer
WAOB Chairperson
Office of the Chief Economist-USDA
Real Commodity Prices
Long term trend down, flat for several decades?
2005=100
600
500
2005=100
600
Corn
500
Soybeans
400
300
Rice
Wheat
400
300
200
200
100
100
0
Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024 and OCE, February 2015
0
Grain and Oilseed Ending Stocks
in Days of Use
Days of Use
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: WAOB November 10 WASDE
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Rice
Corn, wheat, and soybean prices
20002003
average 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16F
Wheat
3.09
6.78
4.87
5.70
7.24
7.77
6.87
5.99
5.00
Corn
2.14
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
Soybeans 5.45
Upland
Cotton
46.48
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.90
47.80
62.90
81.50
88.30
72.50
77.90
61.30
59.00
All Rice
16.80
14.40
12.70
14.50
15.10
16.30
13.30
13.80
5.61
Wheat, corn and soybeans in dollars per bushel; rice in dollars per
hundredweight; upland cotton in cents per pound. Numbers in red
denote record levels.
Source: USDA-NASS, November 10, 2015, WASDE
World Output Growth
Percent change in GDP, constant prices
15
10
5
0
forecast
India
Advanced economies
Latin America and the Caribbean
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
China
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: IMF, WEO
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-5
Projected growth rates for China
10,0
9,0
8,0
7,0
6,0
5,0
2011
2012
2013
2014
Oct 2013
Source: IMF WEO
2015
2016
Oct 2014
2017
Oct-15
2018
2019
2020
Exchange Rates
Wheat Production, Consumption & Stocks
MMT
750
Production
Consumption
MMT
500
Ending stocks
450
700
400
650
350
300
600
250
550
200
150
500
100
450
400
1990/91
50
0
1994/95
1998/99
2002/03
2006/07
2010/11
2014/15
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
10/2010
12/2010
02/2011
04/2011
06/2011
08/2011
10/2011
12/2011
02/2012
04/2012
06/2012
08/2012
10/2012
12/2012
02/2013
04/2013
06/2013
08/2013
10/2013
12/2013
02/2014
04/2014
06/2014
08/2014
10/2014
12/2014
2/2015
4/2015
6/2015
8/2015
10/2015
Million Metric Tons
Monthly Chinese Corn/Barley/Sorghum/DDGS
imports by Origin
5,0
US-CORN
US-SORGHUM
US-DDG
Ukraine-CORN
Thailand/Burma/Laos-CORN
Other-CORN
BARLEY
Other-SORGHUM
Other-DDG
Source: Global Trade Information Services (GTIS)
China National Average Corn Price
U.S. Corn Used in Ethanol Production
Corn used
Bil. bushels
Percent
Percent of total use
6
45
40
5
35
4
30
25
3
20
2
15
10
1
5
0
0
1995/96
1999/00
2003/04
2007/08
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2011/12
2015/16F
The price of soybeans* in dollars and real
*Central Illinois
Dollars per bushel, 6-week moving average
Reals per bushel, 6-week moving average
40
18,0
17,0
37
Price in real
(right axis)
34
16,0
15,0
14,0
31
Price in US dollars
(left axis)
28
13,0
25
12,0
22
11,0
19
10,0
16
13
9,0
ene 10
jul 10
ene 11
jul 11
ene 12
jul 12
ene 13
jul 13
ene 14
jul 14
ene 15
jul 15
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
Operator and Land Returns
$633
$482
$256
$195
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Costs
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
Operator and Land Returns
$633
$482
$256
$195
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
Operator and Land Returns
$633
$482
$256
$195
Revenue
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
$633
$482
$256
$195
Breakeven
Operator and Land Returns
Rental Rate
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
Operator and Land Returns
$633
$482
$256
$195
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
Corn Objective Yield Region
Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight
Lbs/Ear
0.360
2004
0.350
2009
0.340
0.330
2005
2006
2007
Aug-15
2008
2010
0.320
0.310
2013
2014 Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
2011
0.300
0.290
0.280
0.270
0.260
25,000
2012
25,500
26,000
26,500
27,000
27,500
Ears Per Acre
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500
Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears
USDA-NASS
11-10-15
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
Operator and Land Returns
$633
$482
$256
$195
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
Jan-2009
Apr-2009
Jul-2009
Oct-2009
Jan-2010
Apr-2010
Jul-2010
Oct-2010
Jan-2011
Apr-2011
Jul-2011
Oct-2011
Jan-2012
Apr-2012
Jul-2012
Oct-2012
Jan-2013
Apr-2013
Jul-2013
Oct-2013
Jan-2014
Apr-2014
Jul-2014
Oct-2014
Jan-2015
Apr-2015
Jul-2015
Oct-2015
units sold
1400
US 4WD Tractor Sales
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
prior 5 year range
4WD Farm Tractors
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
Operator and Land Returns
$633
$482
$256
$195
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
Operator and Land Returns
$633
$482
$256
$195
Includes Interest
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
Tenth District Credit Conditions
Kansas City Federal Reserve
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
Operator and Land Returns
$633
$482
$256
$195
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
US Maize Yield
Weather Adjusted Trend vs October USDA Estimate
bu/acre
180
“Normal Weather” estimate: 166.8
2015 November WASDE: 169.3
Actual Yield
170
Weather-Adjusted Trend
160
November Estimate
150
140
130
120
110
100
Source: USDA October WASDE
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
80
1988
90
26
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
Operator and Land Returns
$633
$482
$256
$195
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
2014 Farm Bill
• New Choices for Farmers
– Direct payments, Countercyclical payments, ACRE,
MILC, and dairy support programs repealed
• New Program Options
– PLC
– ARC
– Dairy Margin
– Crop Insurance/
management
Risk
2014 Farm Bill Sign Up (acres)
PLC
Corn
Wheat
Soybeans
ARC-CO
ARC-IC
Total
6,388,000
90,057,000
323,000
96,768,000
27,046,000
35,395,000
1,259,000
63,700,000
1,688,000
52,636,000
191,000
54,515,000
8,000
17,583,000
Generic (cotton)
Grain Sorghum
5,966,000
2,998,000
16,000
8,980,000
Barley
3,877,000
1,127,000
182,000
5,186,000
Rice
4,363,167
211,000
23,000
4,764,000
Oats
671,000
1,410,000
14,000
2,095,000
2,013,000
7,000
921,000
711,000
20,000
1,652,000
1,437,000
32,000
8,000
1,477,000
Dry Peas
197,000
219,000
26,000
442,000
Lentils
151,000
117,000
19,000
287,000
Other
420,833
200,000
18,000
472,000
55,139,000
185,120,000
2,107,000
259,941,000
Peanuts
Sunflower Seed
Canola
Total
2,020,000
Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC)
• Two options: ARC County and ARC Individual Coverage
• ARC County option
– Paid on historical base (85%). No production required.
– Payments made when country crop revenue drops below 86% of the
country benchmark revenue
– 5-year Olympic average yield times 5-year Olympic average
price (national or reference)
• ARC Individual option
– Paid on historical base (65%). Requires production.
– Payments made when actual crop revenue on the farm for all covered
are less than the individual ARC guarantee.
Covered commodities:
Wheat, corn, grain sorghum, barley, dry peas, oats, rice, soybeans, peanuts, other oilseeds,
lentils, small chickpeas, honey, wool, mohair
Price Loss Coverage (PLC)
• Paid on historical base (85%) and historical payment yields.
• No production required to receive the payment.
• Payments made when market prices fall below the reference price.
Wheat: $202.09 /mt
Corn: $145.66 /mt
Soybeans: $308.65 /mt
Revenue insurance has become dominant
policy type
Millions of acres insured
300
250
200
150
100
50
Yield (APH)
Revenue
Group
Index
APH = Actual Production History (farm or sub-farm unit level)
Revenue = APH yield x national price (farm or sub-farm unit level)
Group = County yield (GRP) or county revenue (GRIP)
Index = Rainfall or Vegetation (Pasture, Rangeland and Forage)
Source: ERS compilation of Risk Management Agency data
Other
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
0
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
Operator and Land Returns
$633
$482
$256
$195
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
Cash rental rates
1998 = 100
$/acre
300
250%
250
200%
200
150%
150
100%
100
50%
50
0%
IL
IN
IA
KS
GA
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
0
GA
IL
IN
IA
KS
Corn and Soybeans Futures Prices
Wednesday Nov 25 Close
dollars per bushel
10
soybeans/corn ratio
Harvest time futures price ratio (right axis)
9
2,4
2,35
8
2,3
7
2,25
6
2,2
5
4
2,15
3
2,1
Corn
Soybeans
Post Harvest Rato
Conclusions for US producers
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Dollar strength reducing competitiveness
Stocks Rising / production margins narrowing
Lower Returns suggest fewer total crop acres
Land and Rent prices ‘softer’ but small adjustments so far
Futures Market bidding between corn and soybean acres
ARC payments will fade if prices stabilize
PLC support below current cost of production
First USDA estimates for United States 2016/17 crop year
in February at the Agricultural Outlook Forum
• First US-World WASDE balance for 2016/17
End
2013/14
2015 Wheat Outlook
• Lower acreage
• Production higher
on yield
• Reduced imports
• Increased feed use
• Exports lower on
strong dollar
• Stocks rise
• Average farm price
lower
2015/16
Million Acres
Area Planted
56.2
56.8
54.6
Area Harvested
45.3
46.4
47.1
Yield (bu./acre)
47.1
43.7
43.6
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Food, Seed
Feed & Residual
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Avg. Farm Price
$/bu.
Source: November 10 WASDE
2014/15
718
590
753
2,135
2,026
2,052
173
149
125
3,026
2,766
2,930
1,032
1,039
1,039
228
120
180
1,176
854
800
2,436
2,013
2,019
590
753
911
$6.87
$5.99
$5.00
2013/14
2015 Rice Outlook
• Reduced acreage
• Production lower
on yield
• Lower domestic use
• Exports higher
• Fall in stocks
• Average farm price
modestly higher
2015/16
Million Acres
Area Planted
2.49
2.94
2.61
Area Harvested
2.47
2.92
2.57
Yield (lbs./acre)
7,694
7,572
7,423
Million cwt. (rough-basis)
Beginning Stocks
36.4
31.8
48.5
190.0
221.0
190.8
23.1
24.7
25.5
249.5
277.5
264.8
124.4
128.7
127.0
93.3
100.3
98.0
Total Use
217.7
229.0
225.0
Ending Stocks
31.8
48.5
39.8
$16.30
$13.30
$13.80
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Domestic &
Residual
Exports
Avg. Farm Price
$/cwt.
Source: November 10 WASDE
2014/15
2013/14 2014/15
2015 Corn Outlook
• Reduced planted
area and production
• Total supply down
slightly despite large
carry-in
• Total use falls
• Ending stocks up
slightly
• Average farm price
marginally lower
Million Acres
Area Planted
95.4
90.6
88.4
Area Harvested
87.5
83.1
80.7
Yield (bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
169.3
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
13,829
14,216
13,654
36
32
30
14,686
15,479
15,415
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,315
5,300
Food, Seed, Indust.
6,493
6,568
6,555
Ethanol
5,124
5,209
5,175
Exports
1,920
1,864
1,800
13,454
13,748
13,655
Ending Stocks
1,232
1,731
1,760
Avg. Farm Price $/bu.
$4.46
$3.70
$3.65
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Total Use
Source: November 10 WASDE
2015/16
2013/14
2015 Soybean Outlook
• Planted area nearly
unchanged
• Production up on
strong yield
• Total supply up with
larger carry-in
• Crush up, exports lag
last year on weak
demand and strong
dollar
• Stock building
continues
• Average farm price
lower
Source: November 10 WASDE
2014/15
2015/16
Million Acres
Area Planted
76.8
83.3
83.2
Area Harvested
76.3
82.6
82.4
Yield (Bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.3
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks
141
92
191
3,358
3,927
3,981
72
33
30
3,570
4,052
4,203
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,890
Exports
1,638
1,843
1,715
97
97
92
3,478
3,861
3,738
92
191
465
$13.00
$10.10
$8.90
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Seed & Residual
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Avg. Farm Price
$/bu.
2013/14
2015 Cotton Outlook
10.41
11.04
8.56
Area Harvested
7.54
9.35
8.15
Yield (Bu./acre)
821
838
782
Million Bales
Beginning Stocks
3.80
2.35
3.70
12.91
16.32
13.28
0.01
0.01
0.01
16.72
18.68
16.99
Mill Use
3.55
3.58
3.70
Exports
10.53
10.70
10.20
14.08
14.82
13.90
2.35
3.70
3.10
$0.779
$0.613
$0.59
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Avg. Farm Price
$/lbs.
Source: November 10 WASDE
2015/16
Million Acres
Area Planted
• Reduced Acreage
• Production lower on
lower area and yield
• Decreased ending
stocks
• lower prices and
soft world demand
2014/15
US Soybean Export Sales
Million metric tons
50
40
30
20
10
0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Accumulated Exports 2014/15
Accumulated Exports 2015/16
Jul
Jul Aug
Outstanding sales 2014/15
Outstanding sales 2015/16
United States
Source: Global Trade Information Services (GTIS)
Argentina +Brazil
ROW
10/2015
7/2015
4/2015
1/2015
10/2014
07/2014
04/2014
01/2014
10/2013
07/2013
04/2013
01/2013
10/2012
07/2012
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
04/2012
01/2012
10/2011
07/2011
04/2011
01/2011
10/2010
07/2010
04/2010
01/2010
Million Metric Tons
Monthly Chinese Soybean Imports
by Origin
U.S. Wheat Production & Consumption
Production
MMT
Consumption
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2010/11
2015/16F
U.S. Wheat Production & Consumption
Production
Billion bushels
Consumption
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2010/11
2015/16F
Global Rice Production & Consumption
MMT- Milled
Basis
500
Production
Consumption
450
400
350
300
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2010/11
2015/16F
US Rice Production & Consumption
MMT- Milled
Basis
8
Production
Consumption
6
4
2
0
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2010/11
2015/16F
US Rice Production & Consumption
Million CWT –
Rough Basis
250
Production
Consumption
200
150
100
50
0
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2010/11
2015/16F
Global Corn Production & Consumption
Production
MMT
Consumption
1.100
1.000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2010/11
2015/16F
U.S. Corn Production & Consumption
Production
MMT
Consumption
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2010/11
2015/16F
U.S. Corn Production & Consumption
Production
Billion bushels
Consumption
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2010/11
2015/16F
Global Soybean Production & Consumption
Production
MMT
Consumption
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2010/11
2015/16F
U.S. Soybean Production & Consumption
Production
MMT
Consumption
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2010/11
2015/16F
U.S. Soybean Production & Consumption
Production
Billion bushels
Consumption
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
2005/06
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2015.
2010/11
2015/16F
Central Illinois Production Budget 2016
(high productive land)
Fertilzers
Seed
Crop Insurance
Other direct costs
Per Hectare
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$321
$86
$301
$188
$67
$44
$217
$111
Per Acre
Corn After Soybeans
Soybeans After Corn
$130
$35
$122
$76
$27
$18
$88
$45
Machinery hire/lease, repair and depreciation
Fuel and oil
Other power costs
$247
$42
$17
$225
$42
$12
$100
$17
$7
$91
$17
$5
Overhead costs
$166
$151
$67
$61
Total non-land costs
$1,379
$860
$558
$348
Yield (mt/ht) and (bu/ac)
Price (per mt) and (per bu)
Crop Revenue
12.62
$153.18
$1,937
3.90
$325.18
$1,268
201
$3.90
$784
58
$8.85
$513
ARC(PLC)
Insurance Proceeds
$74
$0
$74
$0
$30
$0
$30
$0
Operator and Land Returns
$633
$482
$256
$195
Source: Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
Fertilizer prices
59