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Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
4 . Mercado de Divisas
© Juan Mascareñas
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Primera versión: enero 1991 - Última versión: agosto 2012
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Introducción al tipo de cambio, 1
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El tipo de cambio, 6
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Operaciones al contado y a plazo, 8
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El riesgo de cambio, 10
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¿De qué depende el tipo de cambio?, 12
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La teoría de la paridad del poder adquisitivo, 14
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La teoría de la paridad de los tipos de interés, 17
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Las hipótesis de Fisher, 22
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La teoría de las expectativas, 25
- Bibliografía, 26
- Enlaces de interés, 27
- Anexos, 28
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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4
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Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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Veraneo escandaloso en la City
elEconomista.es Eva M. Millán 11/08/2012
Standard Chartered y HSBC están acusados de aplicar prácticas ilegales de blanqueo
de dinero, mientras que Barclays habría manipulado el Libor, el índice interbancario.
Algo huele a podrido en la industria financiera británica. El gran centro neurálgico mundial, con permiso de Nueva York y Hong Kong, la City, trata de detener
sin libro de instrucciones una sangría de escándalos de la que no se salvan ni entidades que, hasta ahora, hacían de los "valores" el factor que definía su cultura. El último en sumarse al club de los bandidos es el hasta ahora inmaculado Standard
Chartered, un banco que hasta esta semana no era siquiera masivamente conocido
por el británico medio.
Pese a contar con su base en Londres, el foco de negocios se dirige a Asia en
la que, en el siglo XIX, se había plantado la semilla de un banco capaz de aglutinar
6.800 millones de dólares en beneficios anuales, mientras parte de sus rivales sufren
todavía el color rojo en sus cuentas. Todo cambió, sin embargo, cuando un regulador
norteamericano, relativamente nuevo, el Departamento de Servicios Financieros (DFS)
del Estado de Nueva York, mandó a la compañía que hablaba de principios como su
"primera y última línea de defensa" al mismo rincón de la vergüenza al que en poco
más de un mes han ido a parar gigantes como HSBC o Barclays y al que parece encaminarse inexorablemente RBS, un enfermo prácticamente tutelado por el Gobierno.
La acusación de "maquinaciones" con Irán para esquivar la normativa de sanciones norteamericana ha noqueado al hasta ahora indemne Standard Chartered y
amenaza con nuevas bajas, puesto que existirían pruebas de prácticas similares con
otros regímenes como Libia, Birmania o Sudán…
……
Standard Chartered asegura que el informe del DFS no recoge un "retrato
fiel", pero, por lo pronto, deberá comparecer ante el regulador neoyorquino a final
de agosto para defenderse y, sobre todo, para evitar que se le retire la licencia para operar en Wall Street que obtuvo en 1976. La gravedad de las acusaciones justifica la demanda de una explicación. Incluso, para demostrar el argumento de la
dirección del banco, que asegura que el 99,9 por ciento de las transacciones cumplían con la normativa norteamericana. Sin embargo, el superintendente del DFS,
Benjamín Lawsky, está convencido de que la entidad escondió 60.000 intercambios
monetarios para instituciones de Teherán que estaban sujetas a las sanciones económicas de EEUU. El tono, por tanto, es incluso superior al del caso contra HSBC, puesto que la acusación mantiene que, como consecuencia de acciones "intencionadas", el
sistema financiero norteamericano habría quedado "vulnerable a terroristas, trafiU
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5
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
cantes de armas, señores de la guerra y regímenes corruptos". El método se habría
desarrollado a partir de un sistema para ocultar la identidad del cliente iraní, manipulando el código SWIFT, necesario para los movimientos de dinero internacionales, y
de esta manera evitar la legislación. La batalla está servida y las investigaciones
continúan, pero lo que ha quedado claro en este verano de crisis es que los adjetivos
para proclamar "la semana más dramática de la banca británica" encuentran el
superlativo con cada movimiento del regulador.
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6
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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7
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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8
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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9
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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10
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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11
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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12
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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13
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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14
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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15
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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16
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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17
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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+820.000 !
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18
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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19
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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20
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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21
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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(%4$#($!)-3!0-&!+#J%3&-3%&!79?!@!0$!,$&$!%&)%3$($!(%!+#60$2+*#!7_?/!$!,3$JC&!(%!0$!(%#-4+#$($!
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17
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22
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
"#+(-&! &%3G#/! 3%&)%2,+J$4%#,%/! _N! @! _OD! V-#! %&,-&! ($,-&! )-(%4-&! 2$02'0$3! 0$! 3%#,$1+0+($(!
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)-3! 7.! r! 3?! -1,%#(3%4-&! 7.! r! +t?! )-(3%4-&! -1,%#%3! 0$! %H)3%&+*#! A'%! 4'%&,3$! %0! %6%2,-! b+N
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($(-!A'%/!&%FM#!%0!%6%2,-!b+&B%3/!3w!q!3t!q!3a!+F'$0$#(-!$41$&!%H)3%&+-#%&!)-(3%4-&!2-#20'+3!
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(-&!A'%!B$2%#!)-&+10%!%&$!+F'$0($(D!<&E/!&+!%0!(+6%3%#2+$0!(%!+#60$2+*#!(%!0-&!O&,$(-&!"#+(-&!
2-#!3%&)%2,-!$!0$!O'3-5-#$!%&!(%0!Wg/!%0!(+6%3%#2+$0!(%!0-&!J%#(+4+%#,-&!#-4+#$0%&!,$41+C#!
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+#2-3)-3$3&%! )$3$! ($3! 0'F$3! $0! *9*+&() ="$/*.) "1&*.1%+"(1%2! -! B+)*,%&+&! $1+%3,$/! A'%! +4)0+2$!
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,3%!0-&!(+6%3%#,%&!)$E&%&D!P$41+C#!$!0$3F-!)0$5-/!(%1%3G!-2'33+3!A'%!$A'%0!)$E&!A'%!-63%52$!
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23
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
)$E&!2-#!'#!4$@-3!,+)-!(%!+#,%3C&!#-4+#$0!J%3G!(+&4+#'+3!%0!J$0-3!(%!&'!4-#%($/!2-#!0-!A'%!
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,+)-&!(%!+#,%3C&!7+t!N!+w?!%#,3%!O&,$(-&!"#+(-&!@!0$!O'3-5-#$!%&!(%0!Wg/!%0!(*0$3!(%1%3E$!(%)3%N
2+$3&%!%#!'#!WgD!
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24
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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25
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
V-4-!&%!-1&%3J$/!$0!&%3!,-($&!+F'$0($(%&/!,+%#%!A'%!2'4)0+3&%!A'%!0$!J$3+$2+*#!%&)%3$($!(%!
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26
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
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27
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
Anexo I
Nomenclatura de las principales divisas
ARS – pesos argentinos
AUD – dólares australianos
BOB – bolívares bolivianos
BRL – reales brasileños
CAD – dólares canadienses
CHF – francos suizos
CLP – pesos chilenos
CNY – yuanes chinos
COP – pesos colombianos
CZK – coronas checas
DKK – coronas danesas
EUR – euros
GBP – libras esterlinas
GTQ – quetzales guatemaltecos
HKD – dólares de Hong Kong
HUF – florines húngaros
ILS – shéquels israelíes
INR – rupias indias
JPY – yenes japoneses
MXN – pesos mexicanos (nuevos pesos)
NOK – coronas noruegas
NZD – dólares neozelandeses
PEN – soles peruanos
PLN – zlotys polacos
PYG – guaraníes paraguayos
RUB – rublos rusos
SEK – coronas suecas
SGD – dólares de Singapur
TRY – liras turcas
USD – dólares de los Estados Unidos
UYP – pesos uruguayos
VEB – bolívares venezolanos
ZAR – rands sudafricanos
28
Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas
Anexo II
Amas de casa desesperadas (en el mercado de divisas)
El Mundo. Pablo Pardo. 12-Abril-2012
Watanabe es, según Wikipedia (dónde si no), el quinto apellido más común en Japón. También es el nombre coloquial de las amas de casa niponas que invierten en
mercados financieros fuera del país. Puede parecer exótico eso de que un ama de
casa invierta en divisa extranjera. Y lo es. Pero no en Japón. El mercado de divisas de particulares en Japón es mayor que el de todos los demás países del mundo juntos.
La señora Watanabe se endeuda en Japón a tipos cercanos al 0%, y compra deuda brasileña que da más del
10%. Otras veces compra derivados (activos cuyo precio depende de otros activos) en Brasil que utilizan como subyacente (es decir, los activos de los que dependen su precio e
interés) deuda de alto riesgo de Estados Unidos. Eso es lo
que se llama 'carry trade': endeudarse en una divisa barata y encima con intereses bajos (el yen) y comprar con
intereses altos (el real). No es algo nuevo. En los noventa,
mi amigo Manolo P. se compró su piso en Barcelona contratando una hipoteca en yenes.
Si encima el real se aprecia, como pasa a menudo, la ganancia es aún mayor para
Watanabe. Aunque si sucede lo contrario, como pasó hace tres años, el ama de
casa se estrella. No es de extrañar que ahora el ministro de Finanzas brasileño,
Guido Mantega, y la presidenta de ese país, Dilma Rousseff estén neuras perdidos con Watanabe, que les sube y les sube el precio del real. Porque esta actividad es además una profecía que se autocumple: al invertir fuera de Japón,
Watanabe y sus amigas devalúan el yen, y al comprar reales aprecian esa divisa.
Watanabe no sólo invierte en Brasil, obviamente. También lo hace en EEUU, en la
eurozona y, últimamente, en algunos otros mercados emergentes, como Turquía.
En esas operaciones, tiene alrededor de un cuarto de billón de euros en divisas.
Ahora, Dilma Rousseff ha venido a Estados Unidos a quejarse entre otras cosas de la política monetaria de EEUU y de la UE que es, en su opinión, demasiado laxa e inunda al mundo de dólares y euros y empuja al alza al real. Es cierto, pero no lo es menos que el 'carry trade' es sobre todo un invento japonés. Y
no lo es menos que Brasil, con sus tipos de alto exageradamente altos, con su
peculiarísimo banco de desarrollo (el BNDES), que es casi 'un Estado dentro
del Estado' para financiar a grandes empresas a tipos preferentes, o su sistema financiero que todavía sigue sin desarrollarse plenamente, tiene que resolver sus propios problemas antes de echarle la culpa de sus problemas a las
amas de casa de Japón, a Ben Bernanke o a Mario Draghi.
29
