Preliminares

9 de julio de 2015
www.monex.com.mx
Preliminares
@monexanalisis
Reportes al 1T15
Elaborado por: Dirección de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil



60%
50%
Crecimiento en Ebitda
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
ALSEA
IENOVA
ICH
MFRISCO
OHLMEX
SIMEC
ALPEK
ALFA
BIMBO
GAP
ASUR
GRUMA
OMA
GCARSO
LIVEPOL
PE&OLES
ELEKTRA
CEMEX
PINFRA
ICA
MEGA
BOLSA
AUTLAN
GMEXICO
SORIANA
LALA
WALMEX
CHDRAUI
MEXCHEM
KIMBER
AMX
COMERCI
FEMSA
AC
TLEVISA
KOF
LAB
AZTECA
-30%
Crecimiento Ebitda
Mediana ( 14.1% )
1
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
Mercado Accionario
La mediana de cremiento en Ventas
se espera del 10.1%, mientras
que el crecimiento del total de
la muestra se ubica en 10.9%.
50%
Crecimiento en Ventas
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
ALSEA
MEXCHEM
MFRISCO
PINFRA
GAP
BOLSA
ALFA
ASUR
OMA
IENOVA
BIMBO
CEMEX
OHLMEX
MEGA
GMEXICO
LIVEPOL
GCARSO
ICA
AMX
WALMEX
GRUMA
PE&OLES
FEMSA
LALA
ICH
KIMBER
CHDRAUI
ELEKTRA
ALPEK
SORIANA
AC
TLEVISA
COMERCI
SIMEC
LAB
AUTLAN
AZTECA
KOF
-20%
Crecimiento en Ventas
60%
Mediana ( 10.1% )
Crecimiento en Ebitda
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
ALSEA
IENOVA
ICH
MFRISCO
OHLMEX
SIMEC
ALPEK
ALFA
BIMBO
GAP
ASUR
GRUMA
OMA
GCARSO
LIVEPOL
PE&OLES
ELEKTRA
CEMEX
PINFRA
ICA
MEGA
BOLSA
AUTLAN
GMEXICO
SORIANA
LALA
WALMEX
CHDRAUI
MEXCHEM
KIMBER
AMX
COMERCI
FEMSA
AC
TLEVISA
KOF
LAB
AZTECA
La mediana de cremiento en Ebitda
se espera del 14.1%, mientras que el
total de la muestra se ubica en 7.4%
Crecimiento Ebitda
Mediana ( 14.1% )
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
2
Mercado Accionario
Reportes Preliminares al 1T15
Ventas
Emisora
AC
Tipo Fecha
Est. Reporte
C
15-jul
Ebitda
15,958
16,197
2t15e vs.
2t14
1.5%
2t14
2t15e
3,773
3,575
2t14
2t15e
Margen Operativo
Utilidad Neta
2t15e vs.
2t14
-5.3%
1,935
1,782
2t15e vs.
2t14
-7.9%
2t14
2t15e
2t14
2t15e
Margen EBITDA
2t14
2t15e
19.5%
19.5%
23.6%
22.1%
12.6%
ALFA
M
21-jul
52,408
65,229
24.5%
6,626
8,234
24.3%
1,920
1,185
-38.3%
8.3%
8.2%
12.6%
ALPEK
M
21-jul
20,981
21,370
1.9%
1,637
2,044
24.9%
520
421
-19.0%
5.6%
6.9%
7.8%
9.6%
ALSEA
M
22-jul
5,203
7,729
48.5%
618
958
55.0%
88
237
169.0%
5.9%
6.9%
11.9%
12.4%
AMX
M
16-jul
202,635
223,257
10.2%
66,631
68,672
3.1%
18,833
9,838
-47.8%
19.4%
16.3%
32.9%
30.8%
ASUR
C
1,341
1,651
23.2%
874
1,076
23.1%
555
668
20.4%
56.8%
56.8%
65.2%
65.1%
AUTLAN
M
1,144
1,068
-6.7%
163
180
10.3%
32
-11
NS
7.3%
9.4%
14.2%
16.8%
AZTECA
C
BIMBO
C
BOLSA
3,253
2,977
-8.5%
801
611
-23.8%
276
65
-76.4%
19.2%
19.2%
24.6%
20.5%
44,941
52,394
16.6%
4,651
5,742
23.5%
1,612
1,644
2.0%
7.3%
6.7%
10.3%
11.0%
C
506
630
24.6%
255
282
10.4%
184
184
0.2%
47.7%
47.7%
50.4%
44.7%
CEMEX
M
53,969
61,890
14.7%
10,385
11,959
15.2%
987
630
-36.2%
12.5%
12.3%
19.2%
19.3%
CHDRAUI
C
28-jul
17,200
17,855
3.8%
1,165
1,242
6.6%
441
488
10.7%
5.0%
5.0%
6.8%
7.0%
COMERCI
T
22-jul
12,455
12,513
0.5%
1,075
1,104
2.7%
565
559
-1.0%
6.4%
6.4%
8.6%
8.8%
ELEKTRA
T
18,265
18,825
3.1%
1,839
2,190
19.1%
-1,114
1,920
NS
6.3%
6.3%
10.1%
11.6%
FEMSA
M
70,956
75,545
6.5%
11,285
11,331
0.4%
3,018
2,915
-3.4%
11.2%
11.0%
15.9%
15.0%
GAP
C
1,411
1,762
24.9%
911
1,123
23.3%
431
631
46.3%
48.9%
48.9%
64.5%
63.7%
GCARSO
T
19,340
21,764
12.5%
2,347
2,861
21.9%
1,275
1,502
17.8%
9.9%
9.9%
12.1%
13.1%
GMEXICO
M
30,668
34,740
13.3%
13,231
14,546
9.9%
7,257
6,353
-12.5%
34.6%
34.3%
43.1%
41.9%
12,339
13,534
9.7%
1,729
2,126
23.0%
1,135
987
-13.0%
11.0%
11.0%
14.0%
15.7%
9,063
10,073
11.1%
1,547
1,761
13.9%
-331
-753
NS
12.8%
12.9%
17.1%
17.5%
7,390
7,850
6.2%
712
1,038
45.9%
365
377
3.2%
5.7%
5.8%
9.6%
13.2%
21-jul
23-jul
GRUMA
C
ICA
M
ICH
M
IENOVA
C
28-jul
2,416
2,873
18.9%
732
1,085
48.1%
488
588
20.5%
22.4%
22.4%
30.3%
37.7%
KIMBER
C
23-jul
7,282
7,622
4.7%
1,879
1,960
4.3%
925
897
-3.1%
20.2%
20.2%
25.8%
25.7%
KOF
M
22-jul
41,433
36,865
-11.0%
8,242
7,522
-8.7%
2,679
2,556
-4.6%
13.9%
15.0%
19.9%
20.4%
LAB
C
23-jul
2,900
2,784
-4.0%
613
558
-9.1%
308
317
2.8%
20.3%
20.3%
21.2%
20.0%
LALA
C
10,973
11,681
6.5%
1,339
1,461
9.1%
832
835
0.3%
9.9%
9.9%
12.2%
12.5%
LIVEPOL
T
19,626
22,146
12.8%
2,922
3,560
21.8%
1,741
2,122
21.9%
12.5%
12.5%
14.9%
16.1%
MEGA
C
2,791
3,183
14.1%
1,241
1,371
10.5%
579
687
18.6%
29.1%
29.1%
44.5%
43.1%
18,916
25,968
37.3%
3,337
3,509
5.1%
680
438
-35.6%
10.8%
6.2%
17.6%
13.5%
28-jul
27-jul
MEXCHEM M
MFRISCO
M
2,897
3,778
30.4%
1,107
1,445
30.6%
188
-130
NS
11.0%
18.8%
38.2%
38.3%
OHLMEX
M
22-jul
918
1,053
14.7%
562
725
29.0%
0
0
NS
0.0%
0.0%
61.2%
68.9%
OMA
M
22-jul
896
1,078
20.3%
457
561
22.7%
214
271
26.5%
40.4%
41.6%
51.0%
52.0%
PE&OLES
M
28-jul
15,477
16,570
7.1%
3,346
4,018
20.1%
388
1,153
197.1%
11.7%
13.0%
21.6%
24.2%
PINFRA
T
1,451
1,851
27.6%
967
1,106
14.3%
603
599
-0.7%
61.4%
61.4%
66.7%
59.7%
SIMEC
M
28-jul
6,622
6,396
-3.4%
582
737
26.6%
396
384
-2.8%
5.0%
7.8%
8.8%
11.5%
SORIANA
C
24-jul
24,895
25,333
1.8%
1,717
1,880
9.5%
794
941
18.6%
4.8%
4.8%
6.9%
7.4%
TLEVISA
C
06-jul
19,344
19,609
1.4%
7,573
7,004
-7.5%
2,212
1,412
-36.1%
25.2%
25.2%
39.1%
35.7%
WALMEX
M
21-jul
Mediana
IPC
Total de la muestra
104,123
114,467
9,646
10,505
7,093
910,441
972,109
171,284
178,518
183,634
191,659
8.9%
14.1%
7.2%
7.4%
10,418
824,688
884,385
9.9%
10.1%
10.4%
9.9%
60,508
63,429
49,088
51,784
-31.9%
-0.7%
-18.9%
-18.4%
7.0%
11.4%
13.8%
13.4%
7.0%
12.4%
12.9%
12.7%
9.3%
18.4%
20.8%
20.2%
9.2%
18.4%
20.2%
19.7%
Grupos Financieros
Tipo Fecha
Emisora
Est. Reporte
GENTERA
C
GFINBUR
C
GFNORTE
C
GFREGIO
C
SANMEX
C
23-jul
Ingresos por Intereses
2t15e vs.
2t14
2t15e
2t14
3,515
3,897
10.9%
6,440
7,192
14,669
992
14,345
39,961
Fibras
Emisora
FIBRAMQ
M
FUNO
M
TERRA
M
27-jul
23-jul
4,627
3,952
2t15e
2t14
2t15e
9.2%
10.1%
26.1%
25.0%
-14.6%
5.1%
3.9%
20.3%
15.6%
7.2%
11,248
11,950
6.2%
3,795
4,273
12.6%
1.4%
1.5%
21.8%
13.6%
18.8%
927
1,036
11.8%
344
426
23.7%
1.5%
1.6%
19.1%
19.4%
15,306
6.7%
9,262
10,589
14.3%
3,688
3,668
-0.5%
2.1%
1.4%
13.8%
13.4%
11.1%
2.1%
1.6%
20.3%
15.6%
43,304
8.4%
11.8%
29,449
32,188
498
572
661
15.6%
486
547
1,982
2,468
24.5%
1,717
458
558
21.8%
404
1t15e
22.5%
13,109
13,047
Utilidad Neta
Margen NOI
304
358
12.6%
288
333
2,122
23.6%
933
479
18.4%
234
1t14
1t15e
3,522
Cifras Nominales en Millones de MXN$
C: Estimados de Consenso; T: Estimados por tendencia; M: Estimados Monex; P: Resultados Preliminares; R: Reportó.
Fuente: Monex con base en Thomson Reuters, Economática y Bloomberg
20.7%
1,759
1t14
1t15e
Margen FFO
1t14
1t15e
76.8%
74.9%
74.9%
71.9%
15.5%
85.0%
82.8%
50.4%
50.4%
1,294
38.7%
86.6%
86.0%
47.1%
52.4%
328
40.2%
88.2%
85.8%
51.1%
58.9%
28.3%
85.8%
84.3%
50.8%
55.6%
31.5%
85.4%
84.1%
51.5%
55.3%
19.1%
2,919
-0.5%
1t15e vs.
1t14
17.9%
22.4%
4,186
9.3%
Ingreso Neto Operativo (NOI)
1t15e vs.
1t14
1t15e
1t14
311
373
19.8%
405
3,417
1.2%
2t14
1,178
Mediana
Total Fibras
727
15,731
1t15e vs.
1t14
22.9%
1t14
2t15e
655
ROE
4,760
Ingresos Totales
Tipo Fecha
Est. Reporte
M
27-jul
2t14
ROA
2t15e vs.
2t14
11.1%
4,704
10.9%
Total Grupos Financieros
Utilidad Neta
11.7%
Mediana
DANHOS
Margen Financiero
2t15e vs.
2t14
2t15e
2t14
3,309
3,853
16.4%
2,314
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
3
Mercado Accionario
Directorio
Dirección de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil
Carlos A. González Tabares
Director de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil
T. 5231-4521
[email protected]
Daniela Ruíz Zárate
Analista Económico
T. 5231-0200 Ext. 0019
[email protected]
Fernando E. Bolaños S.
Analista Bursátil / Industrial, Minero y Petroquímico
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 0720
[email protected]
J. Roberto Solano Pérez
Analista Bursátil / Construcción, Vivienda y Fibras
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4451
[email protected]
Verónica Uribe Boyzo
Analista Bursátil / Alimentos y Bebidas
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4782
[email protected]
Giselle N. Mojica Plascencia
Analista Bursátil
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4451
[email protected]
Laura Villanueva Ramírez
Analista Bursátil
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4768
[email protected]
Stephany Ramírez Rojas
Analista Deuda Corporativa
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4262
[email protected]
J. Francisco Caudillo Lira
Analista Técnico Sr.
T. 5231-0016
[email protected]
Astianax Cuanalo Dorantes
Analista Sr. de Sistemas de Información
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4790
[email protected]
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
4
Mercado Accionario
Disclaimer
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Nota de Empresa
5