Mercados Emergentes: una puesta a punto

Mercados Emergentes:
una puesta a punto
Prof. Robert Grosse
Thunderbird School of Global Management
Arizona, USA
presentacion para SLADE mayo 2016
Pregunta:
Cual es el rol de los mercados
emergentes (es decir, paises en vias de
desarrollo) en el siglo 21?
Respuesta: por ser determinado, pero es
cierto que son el motor de crecimiento
del siglo.
PNB Crecimiento Anual
% chg on previous year 1991 1995 2000 2001 2005 France 1.20% 2.33% 3.84% 1.83% 1.88% 0.30% -­‐8.20% 6.38% -­‐7.76% 3.18% 0.50% Germany United Kingdom 5.18% 1.87% 3.16% 1.23% 0.70% 1.19% -­‐9.68% 7.68% -­‐7.19% 4.51% 0.87% -­‐1.37% 2.81% 4.58% 1.49% 2.18% 0.70% -­‐18.48% 5.21% -­‐1.75% 0.93% -­‐0.37% United States -­‐0.19% 2.51% 3.63% 0.76% 3.05% 0.40% -­‐2.80% 1.85% 1.88% 1.39% Japan 3.30% Czechoslovakia (Czech Republic) -­‐13.39% 1.99% 2.82% 0.18% 1.88% -­‐0.70% 3.04% 5.40% -­‐1.18% -­‐18.68% -­‐0.20% 5.74% 2.69% 2.76% 6.17% 3.89% -­‐13.20% 6.75% -­‐10.64% -­‐0.49% -­‐0.97% Poland -­‐7.27% 6.72% 4.10% 1.21% 3.54% 4.78% -­‐19.23% 7.67% -­‐6.59% 4.00% -­‐0.11% Russia -­‐5.13% -­‐4.19% 9.53% 4.97% 6.20% 5.45% -­‐26.95% 22.51% 4.10% 2.38% 1.89% 4.72% 2.82% 4.62% 3.11% -­‐6.01% 0.29% 1.20% 2.47% World Total 1.32% 4.10% 2008 2009 2011 8.56% 2012 annual % change 2013 1990-­‐2013 2.78% PNB Crecimiento Anual
% chg on previous year 1991 1995 2001 2005 ArgenNna 9.53% -­‐3.15% -­‐0.80% -­‐4.51% 8.80% 6.58% -­‐7.49% 18.21% 6.29% -­‐0.09% 3.34% Brazil 1.00% 1.30% 3.15% 4.93% -­‐2.76% 13.34% -­‐10.76% -­‐1.63% 1.70% Mexico 4.14% -­‐6.37% 6.38% -­‐0.04% 3.25% 1.23% -­‐19.16% 4.69% 0.29% China 6.38% 14.08% 8.65% 10.15% 8.16% 7.00% 9.52% 21.08% 10.46% 10.61% 10.61% India 1.29% 7.09% 4.28% 5.63% 8.80% 7.05% 10.69% Indonesia 5.08% 7.79% 4.70% 3.76% 5.54% 5.92% Saudi Arabia 8.07% 0.47% 4.78% 0.50% 5.45% Turkey 0.92% 6.94% 7.10% -­‐7.80% Egypt -­‐3.25% 4.54% 5.26% Nigeria 5.83% 2.59% South Africa -­‐1.01% World Total 1.32% 4.11% 2000 4.31% 2008 2009 2011 2012 annual % change 2013 1990-­‐2013 9.12% -­‐0.34% 7.93% -­‐2.83% -­‐0.53% 1.86% -­‐2.43% 5.41% 4.31% -­‐18.08% 24.64% 7.74% 0.03% 3.79% 8.07% 0.90% -­‐16.50% 3.92% 0.07% 2.42% 0.60% 3.44% 4.40% 6.95% 15.18% 5.74% 9.46% 1.93% 5.37% 4.21% 3.05% 5.26% 5.83% -­‐19.17% 10.71% 9.23% 12.02% 3.96% 3.05% 3.34% 2.66% 4.73% 3.05% 8.46% -­‐6.96% -­‐9.66% 1.09% 4.10% 4.72% 2.82% 4.62% 3.11% -­‐6.01% 8.56% 2.47% source: Angus Madisson database and World Bank database 4.94% 16.98% 4.94% 3.25% 0.29% 1.20% Comparacion de Tamaño Economico en el Largo Plazo
(GDP in constant $US 1990 MM)
country/year
1
United States
272
1000
1250
1500
1600
1700
1820
1870
1913
1950
2003
517,383 1,455,916 8,430,762
520
800
600
527
12,548
98,374
Roman / Holy
Roman Empire*
Mongolian
Empire√
China
13,193 10,421
43,551
64,627
80,107
n.r.*
n.r.
n.r.
26,820 26,550
61,800
96,000
82,800 228,600
189,740
241,431
244,985 6,187,984
India
33,750 33,750
60,500
74,250
90,750 111,417
134,882
204,242
222,222 2,267,136
2,815
6,007
10,709
100,180
224,618
347,850 1,280,625
United Kingdom†
n.r.
n.r.
90,000
320
800
26,232
Shaded boxes show the largest economy for that year.
* The Roman Empire ended around 500 A.D. The Holy Roman Empire largely replaced it in about 800 A.D., with Charlemagne’s coronation, and then
ceased to exist, arguably, in 1806. The countries formerly in the Empire had combined GDP of about $130,000 in 1820, still ranking far behind China.
√ The Mongolian empire only lasted from about 1210-1294 A.D. During that time, nevertheless, the empire encompassed most of China, northern
India, Mongolia, Turkey, Persia, most of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. If we add up the GDPs of these various pieces, the Mongolian Empire
was by far the largest economy in the world during the 13th century.
† The UK is shown without its colonies. So if, for example, colonial India were included until independence in 1947, then the UK would have been the
largest economy during most of 1612-1913.
Source: Angus Maddison database, Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2008 AD http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm
Per Capita GDP, 1-2013
(1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars)
1
1000 1500
1600
1700
1820
1870
1913
1950
1973
2003 2008 2013
France
473
425
727
841
910 1,135 1,876 3,485 5,186 12,824 20,891 22,223 19,480
Germany
408
410
688
791
910 1,077 1,839 3,648 3,881 11,966 19,088 20,801 19,784
Italy
809
450 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,117 1,499 2,564 3,502 10,634 19,090 19,909
United Kingdom
400
400
714
974 1,250 1,706 3,190 4,921 6,939 12,025 21,461 23,742 20,001
United States
400
400
400
400
527 1,257 2,445 5,301 9,561 16,689 29,074 31,178 31,866
Japan
400
425
500
520
570
Czechoslovakia (Czech Republic for 2013)
669
737 1,387 1,921 11,434 21,092 22,816 21,532
849 1,164 2,096 3,501 7,041 9,664 12,925 10,455
Poland
946 1,739 2,447 5,340 7,804 10,160 9,149
Federacion Rusa
400
400
499
552
610
688
943 1,488 2,841 6,582 6,335 9,111 10,593
World Average
467
453
566
596
615
666
870 1,524 2,111 4,083 6,469 7,614 8,061
Per Capita GDP, 1-2013
(1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars)
1
1000
1500
1600
1700
Argentina
1820
712
Brazil
1870
1913
1950
1973
1,311 3,797 4,987 7,962
2003
2008
2013
7,744 10,995 14,765
400
428
459
646
713
811 1,672 3,880
5,536
6,429 7,780
Mexico
400
400
425
454
568
759
674 1,732 2,365 4,853
7,159
7,979 8,009
China
450
466
600
600
600
600
530
552
448
838
4,803
6,725 12,486
India
450
450
550
550
550
533
533
673
619
853
2,134
2,975 3,984
580
612
578
874
803 1,490
3,582
4,428 6,577
2,231 11,040
7,629
8,435 10,298
Indonesia
565
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
550
600
600
600
600
643
825 1,213 1,623 3,477
6,499
8,066 7,919
Egypt
600
500
475
475
475
475
649
910 1,294
3,052
3,725 5,329
Iran
500
650
600
600
588
719 1,000 1,720 5,462
3,995
6,944
753 1,262
1,258
1,524 3,104
415
858 1,602 2,535 4,175
4,130
4,793 5,358
666
870 1,524 2,111 4,083
6,469
7,614 8,061
Nigeria
South Africa
World Average
467
453
566
596
615
902
Como Pueden Competir en el
Siglo 21 los Paises Emergentes?
•  Con un mercado atractivo
•  Con empresas competitivas
•  Aceptando la idea de ponerse (empresa o
pais) parte de cadenas de valor global
•  Y aceptando la idea de ponerse como pais
aliado de otros paises en comercio, flujos de
capitales, flujos de fondos, etc.
Uso de Alianzas – Compras y Marca
Ferreteria “Ace Hardware”
•  Una red global de 5,000
tiendas independientes
•  Fundada en 1924 en
Chicago por una docena de
dueños de ferreterias
•  Metas: ahorros en compras
y reconocimiento de marca
Cadena de Valor Agregado
COMPRA de
INSUMOS
IyD
PRODUCCION
BASICA
ENSAMBLAJE
DISTRIBUCION
VENTAS
cada etapa en la cadena
tecnologia
recursos
financieros
manejo
de la etapa
recursos
humanos
manejo
de riesgos
SERVICIO
POST-VENTA
fuente: Grosse 1999
Cadena de Valor – Telef Celulares
COMPRA INSUMOS
Triad
USA, Korea,
Germany, Japan
emerg mkt
pais de laTriada | mercado emerg
PRODUCCION
BASICA
de componentes
ENSAMBLAJE
China
I&D
USA, Korea
China
DISTRIBUCION
Triada
cada etapa en la cadena
tecnologia
recursos
financieros
admin
de la etapa
recursos
humanos
EMs
VENTAS
Triada
EMs
SERVICIO
POST-VENTA
admin de
riesgos
Triada
marcas Apple y Samsung
EMs
Apple iPhone 3G S Componentes Principales y Bases de Costo
Manufacturer
Toshiba
Multi-Source
Probability
High
High
Medium
Samsung
Infineon
Low
Low
Medium
Samsung
(with Elpida
die)
Broadcom
Numonyx
Infineon
Infineon
High
Low
High
Low
Low
Infineon
Low
Murata
Low
Dialog
Cirrus Logic
Low
Low
(US Dollars)
Component Description
Flash Memory
NAND, 16GB, MLC
Display Module
3.5” Diagonal, 16M Color
TFT, 320 X 480 Pixels
Touch Screen Assembly
Capacitive, Glass
Application Processor
ARM Core, Package-onPackage
Baseband
HSDPA/WCDMA/EDGE
Dual ARM926 and
ARM7Core
Camera Module
3 Megapixel Auto-Focus
SDRAM—Mobile DDR
2GB Package-on-Package
(Mounted on Application
Processor)
Bluetooth/FM/WLAN
Single Chip, WLAN
IEEE802.11b/g, Bluetooth
V2.1+EDR, with FM and
RDS/RBDS Receiver
Memory MCP
128MB NOR Flash and
512MB Mobile DDR
RF Transceiver
Quad-Band GSM/EDGE,
Tri-Band WCDMA/HSDPA,
130nm RF CMOS
GPS Receiver
Single Chip, 0.13um, with
Integrated Front-End RF,
PLL, PM, Correlator Engine
and Host Control Interface
Power IC
RF Function
FEM
Quad-Band GSM, Tri-Band
UMTS Antenna Switch and
Quad-Band GSM RX RF
SAW Filters
POWER IC
Application Processor
Function
Audio Codec
Ultra Low Power, Stereo,
with Headphone
Rest of Bill-of-Materials*
Total Bill-of-Materials
Manufacturing Costs*
Grand Total
Cost Country
$24.00
$19.25
Japan
$16.00
Korea
$14.46
$13.00
Germany
$9.55
Korea
$8.50
$5.95
USA
$3.65
USA
$2.80
Germany
$2.25
Germany
$1.25
Germany
$1.35
Japan
$1.30
Germany
$1.15
USA
$48.00
$172.46
$6.50
$178.96
China
*Estimated Pending Complete Analysis
Source: based on Rassweiler (2009).
FEMSA KOF CADENA de VALOR
COMPRA de
cola, botellas,
cajas, etc
Triad
emerg mkt
pais de laTriada | mercado emerg
PRODUCCION
BASICA de la
FORMULA
(Coca-Cola)
I&D
PRODUCCION,
EMBOTELL. &
DISTRIBUCION
(FEMSA)
(Coca-Cola;
FEMSA)
VENTAS
a tiendas,
restaurantes
DISTRIBUCION
a clientes
Coca-Cola FEMSA & cadena valor agregado
SERVICIO
POST-VENTA
(FEMSA)
Estrategias de EMNEs
•  Lall, Wells (1980s) – producir a costo bajo
–  colaborar con terceros
–  adaptar tecnologia
–  seguir clientes etnicos
•  Ramamurti
-- conocimiento de clientes en EMs
-- excelencia operacional en
ambientes adversos
-- similar a EMNs; pero son mas
jovenes
Ramamurti perspectiva
Estrategias de EMNEs
•  Cuervo-Cazurra
-- invertir para aprender
•  Matthews
-- 3 “L” link; lev; learn
•  vincular, apalancar, aprender
•  Grosse
– encajarse en cadenas de valor
-- secuencia dual de competir
Entonces: Como Competir?
•  Identificar sus cadenas de valor
•  Encajarse bien con los miembros de la cadena
•  Buscar oportunidades de expansion en la
cadena
•  Buscar medidas de proteccion contra los
demas miembros de la cadena
•  Entrar en otras cadenas
ej: Itaúsa y sus Cadenas de Valor
PRODUCCION
BASICA
COMPRA de
INSUMOS
Duratex (paneles madera); Elekeiroz
(quimicos); Itautec (mfre ATMs)
(manufacturas)
DISTRIBUCION
PRODUCCION
BASICA
VENTAS a
CLIENTES
CORPORATIVOS
(financial services)
DISTRIBUCION
a SUCURSALES
I&D
Posibilidades
de extension:
VENTAS a
CLIENTES
RETAIL, CORP
*alianza con banco en USA o Europa
*extension a otros servicios financieros
*manejo de serv. fin. ‘in-house’ de clientes
*extension de lineas manufactureras
SERVICIO
POST-VENTA
Cadena de Valor Global -- Exxon
Exploracion del Petroleo Crudo
Indonesia
Canada
Estados Unidos
Kazakhstan
Irak
Produccion del Petroleo Crudo
Holanda
Canada
Estados Unidos
Rusia
Irak
(via oleoducto, barco, camion)
Transporte del Petroleo Crudo
Refinacion del Petroleo
Arabia Saudita
Canada
Estados Unidos
Belgica
Singapur
Transporte de Productos Refinados
1. Gasolina
2. Fuel Oil
3. Etileno
4. Otras bases petroquimicas
Mercadeo de Productos Refinados
Estados Unidos
Brasil
Alemania
Francia
Reino Unido
Japon
Oportunidades para Empresas Latinas
Exploracion del Petroleo Crudo
experto
en explor.
Indonesia
Canada
Estados Unidos
Kazakhstan
Irak
Produccion del Petroleo Crudo
Holanda
Canada
Cia de transportes ej. CSAV
Estados Unidos
Rusia
Irak
(via oleoducto, barco, camion)
Transporte del Petroleo Crudo
Refinacion del Petroleo
Arabia Saudita
Canada
Belgica
Transporte de Productos Refinados
1. Gasolina
2. Fuel Oil
3. Etileno
4. Otras bases petroquimicas
operador flota
de camiones
operador
estaciones
de petrol
Estados Unidos
Singapur
fabricante de
productos petroquim
Mercadeo de Productos Refinados
Estados Unidos
Brasil
Alemania
Francia
Reino Unido
Japon
Grupo Cisneros CADENA de VALOR - tv
COMPRA de
INSUMOS
PRODUCCION
BASICA de
PROGRAMAS
DISTRIBUCION
a otros clientes
DISTRIBUCION
a CANALES TV
I&D
OPERACION de
VENEVISION
dom+intl
Programacion
Comprada
extensiones: *adquerir canales en otros paises
*entrar en ‘streaming video’
*otras cadenas – transporte, bienes raices
VENTAS
SERVICIO
POST-VENTA
Cadena de Valor: flores de Colombia
agricultor
transporte
corredor
transporte al por mayor retail
Embraer’s VALUE ADDED CHAIN
BASIC
PRODUCTION
PURCHASE
of components
Triad
country
(suppliers)
BASIC
PRODUCTION
(Embraer)
airplane assembly
Emerging
market
Distribution to
Brazilian air force
(core business)
R&D
Embraer
DISTRIBUTION
to airlines
R&D
CTI university in
San Jose dos
Campos
SALES
to airlines
AFTER-SALE
SERVICE
Embraer and Value-Added Chain
CADENA de VALOR Bimbo
PURCHASE
of INPUTS
PRODUCTION of
wheat, sugar,
plastic wrap
(outsourced)
DISTRIBUTION
to other customers
BASIC BAKERY
PRODUCTION
DOMESTIC
DISTRIBUTION
to stores
R&D
mostly
purchased
Posibles extensiones: ???
INTL
DISTRIBUTION
to stores
SALES, domestic
and intl
CUSTOMER
RELATIONSHIP
MANAGAEMENT
Diversificacion de las 20 empresas mas grandes por pais
Country/
company*
Brazil
China
India
Russia
South Africa Mexico
Gazprom 5
SASOL 5
Lukoil 5
MTN GROUP 4 Femsa 3
Exxon Mobil 3 E.ON
Rosneft 4
THE BIDVEST
ALFA 5
GROUP 5
Chevron 4
Daimler 2
Nippon Telegraph & Tel 2
Indus & Commerc
HPCL 4
Bank of China 1
Agricultural Bank
SBI 1
of China 2
TNK-BP
Holding 4
ESKOM 9
Cemex 3
Phillips 66 4
Allianz 2
Hitachi 11
Sberbank 2
SHOPRITE
HOLDINGS 4
Grupo Bimbo 2 Apple 4
BASF 5
Nissan Motor 1
Bank of China 2 Essar Oil 3
Sistema 15
SANLAM 3
Grupo Mexico 3
1
Petrobras 3
2
Banco 2
Bradesco
China Petroleum
IOC 6
& Chemical 6
Reliance
Petro China 4
Industries 6
3
Vale 3
China Mobile 1
4
Odebrecht 11
5
JBS Friboi 6
6
Ultrapar 4
7
Gerdau 1
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
promedio
BPCL 3
USA
Germany
América Móvil/ Wal-Mart Stores Volkswagen
Grupo Carso 11 1
Group 3
Toyota Motor 1
JX Holdings 9
Berkshire
Siemens 6
Honda Motor 2
Hathaway 12
General Motors
BMW Group 2 Panasonic 4
1
General Electric
Munich Re 4 Sony 5
15
Surgutneftegas VODACOM 2
Soriana 2
3
GROUP
IMPERIAL
Eletrobras 1
Transneft 1
GFNorte 3
HOLDINGS 5
IDGC Holding PICK'N PAY
Industrias
Embraer 1
China Telecom 2 NTPC 5
Valero Energy 2 Metro Group 3 Toshiba 3
3
STORES 9
Peñoles (BAL)
Baoshan Iron &
STEINHOFF
Grupo Modelo
Deutsche
Itausa 9
Larsen 5
Inter Rao 1
Ford Motor 1
Toyota Tsusho 3
Steel 8
INTL HLDGS 6 (AB Inbev)
Telekom 4
China Communic
MASSMART
Grupo Carso (see
Ipiranga 3
Tata Group 5 VTB Bank 1
Fannie Mae 1 Deutsche Post 4Mitsubishi Corp 13
Construction 4
HOLDINGS 4 Amer Movil)
CPFL Energia
X5 Retail
Lenovo Group 3 BHEL 4
Edcon 4
Grupo Televisa4 AT&T 3
RWE Group 5 Tokyo Electric Power 1
1
Group 1
China United
Impala Platinum Grupo Elektra 4
Deutsche Bank
Telemar (Oi)1
GAIL 5
Magnit 1
McKesson 2
Aeon 1
Telecomm 1
2
(part of Salinas)
3
Banco do Brasil
El Puerto de
CNOOC 2
Bharti Airtel 1Severstal 5 SAPPI 3
CVS Caremark 3Bayer 3
Mitsui & Co 2
2
Liverpool 2
Ping An Insurance
Hewlett-Packard ThyssenKrupp
BRF Foods 2
SAIL 2
Tatneft 3
Barloworld 3
Mexichem 3
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial 1
2
3
Group 5
Foxconn Intl
Chennai Petro Norilsk Nickel DE BEERS
Arca Continental Verizon Comms
Braskem 1
Continental 2 Seven & I Holdings 4
Holdings 1
4
2
CONS MINES 5 3
3
Pao de Acucar Minmetals
Novolipetsk ANGLOGOLD Grupo Inbursa United Health
Deutsche
PNB 1
Dai-ichi Life Insurance 1
1
Development 3
Steel 3
ASHANTI 2
(part of Carso) Group 2
Lufthansa 5
PICC Property &
Grupo Comercial JPMorgan Chase
Votorantim 7
M&M 11
Mechel 6
TRANSNET 5
Talanx 3
Fujitsu 3
Casualty 1
Chedraui 2
2
China Resources
Cardinal Health
CSN 4
ICICI Bank 2 RusHydro 1 SPAR GROUP 6 Mabe 2
Celesio 3
Marubeni 1
3
2
China Shenhua
Cemig 1
Infosys 2
UC Rusal 3 AVENG 7
Grupo BAL 7 IBM 4
Commerzbank 2Idemitsu Kosan 8
Energy 3
3.20
China Constructin
ONGC 3
Bank 1
China Life
MRPL 3
Insurance 1
5
Japan
2.36
3.44
3.12
4.60
3.55
2.68
3.44
3.4
FEMSA’s geographic spread of affiliates
Que mas pueden hacer ellos?
•  Extenderse a otros paises
•  Comprarle mas de Heineken (ya tiene
las marcas Dos Equis, Sol, Tecate)
•  Extender las OXXO a otros paises
•  Entrar en otros productos
aprovechando canales de distribucion
•  Buscar mecanismos de proteccion
contra Coca-Cola y Heineken
mas Filipinas
Wipro’s FIT into a GLOBAL VALUE
ADDED CHAIN
CLIENT
PURCHASE
of components
CLIENT
BASIC
PRODUCTION
WIPRO
BACK-OFFICE
SERVICES
Triad
country
Emerging
market
CLIENT’S
ASSEMBLY
Wipro
R&D
CLIENT’S
DISTRIBUTION
domestic and intl
R&D
universities
Wipro and a Value-Added Chain
CLIENT’S
SALES to
CUSTOMERS
WIPRO
AFTER-SALE
SERVICE
(call center)
LATAM’s VALUE ADDED CHAIN
PURCHASE
of inputs
PRODUCTION &
DISTRIBUTION
PROVISION of
AIRLINE
PASSENGER
SERVICE
OPERATION
through
ONE-WORLD
ALLIANCE
R&D
(in logistics)
extensiones?
PROVISION of
AIRLINE CARGO
SERVICE
LATAM (LanChile+TAM) & value added chain
AFTER-SALE
SERVICE
Grupo Empresarial Antioqueño Affiliate Network
Oportunidades:
*Extender lineas de produccion
*Extenderse a otros paises
*Buscar alianzas para extenderse
*Enfocarse en mas actividades a
traves de la cadena de valor
Top 25 emerging market state-owned companies in the 2014 Fortune Global 500
Company name
1
2
Country of
origin
China
China
Industry
Sales 2013
% Govt.
Ownership
457.2
73.96%
432.0
86.7%
($US bill)
Sinopec
Oil
China Natl Petroleum
Oil
Co. (PetroChina)
3 State Grid
China
Electric power
333.4
100%
4 Gazprom
Russia
Oil
165.0
50%
5 ICBC
China
Bank
148.8
70.4%
6 Petrobras
Brazil
Oil
141.5
60.5%
7 Pemex
Mexico
Oil
125.9
100%
8 China Construction Bank China
Bank
125.4
59.9%
9 PDVSA
Venezuela
Oil
121.0
100%
10 Lukoil
Russia
Oil
119.1
92%
11 Rosneft Oil
Russia
Oil
117.1
69.5%
12 Agricultural Bank of
China
Bank
115.4
82.9%
China
13 China State Construction China
Construction
110.8
60.5% non
Engineering
free-float
14 China Mobile
China
Telephone service
107.6
73.7%
Communications
15 Bank of China
China
Bank
105.6
67.9%
16 Petronas
Malaysia
Oil
100.7
100%
17 China National Offshore China
Oil
96.0
64.4%
Oil
18 China Railway
China
Construction
95.7
63.3%
Construction
19 PTT
Thailand
Oil
92.6
66.0%
20 SAIC Motors
China
Autos
92.0
100%
21 China Railway Group
China
Railroad transport
91.2
56.1%
22 Indian Oil
India
Oil
81.3
87.3%
23 China Life Insurance
China
Insurance
80.9
68.4%
24 Sinochem Group
China
Chemicals
75.9
100%
25 China FAW Group
China
Autos
75.0
100%
Sources: companies from Fortune Global 500 list. July 21, 2014; company webpages for all other
information.
Top 50 emerging markets family-based business groups in 2013
Company name
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
Tata Group
Mittal
Reliance Industries
Grupo Carso
Ping An
Country of
origin
India
India
India
Mexico
China
Hutchison Whampoa
Odebrecht
JBS
Aditya Birla
Koç Group
Sistema
Interros
Saudi Binladin
Pao de Azucar
Zhejiang Geely Hold.
Antarchile
Femsa
Rembrandt Group
Cencosud
Gerdau
Alfa Group
Grupo Alfa
Cemex
Grupo Luksic
Grupo Bimbo
Charoen Pokphand Gr
Haci Ömer Sabanci
Falabella
Mahindra & Mahindra
Votarantim
San Miguel/Petron
Orascom
Shoprite Holdings Ltd
Organizacion Soriana
Camargo Correa Group
Wipro
Globo Group
Grupo Modelo
Sun Hung Kai
Swire Pacific
Pick N Pay
Grupo Ardila Lulle
China/HK
Brazil
Brazil
India
Turkey
Russia
Russia
Saudi Arab
Brazil
China
Chile
Mexico
South Afr
Chile
Brazil
Russia
Mexico
Mexico
Chile
Mexico
Thailand
Turkey
Chile
India
Brazil
Philippines
Egypt
South Afr
Mexico
Brazil
India
Brazil
Mexico
China/HK
China/HK
South Afr
Colombia
Industry
conglomerate
steel
chemicals
conglomerate
insurance, banking,
invest
conglomerate
conglomerate
meats
conglomerate
conglomerate
conglomerate
conglomerate
construct; congl
supermarkets
autos
conglomerate
beverages
conglomerate
retail stores
steel
conglomerate
conglomerate
cement
conglomerate
bread
conglomerate
conglomerate
retail stores
conglomerate
conglomerate
oil, beer,
telecom+congl
grocery stores
grocery stores
engineering & constr
BP outsourcing
media
beer
real estate
real estate
grocery stores
conglomerate
Annual sales 2013 ownership
($US bill)
138.0
Tata
132.0
Mittal
73.1
Ambani
64.5
Carlos Slim
64.5
CP Group
53.0
43.0
43.0
40.0
42.6
34.0
more than 30
more than 30
27.0
25.8
22.7
18.3
18.0
18.0
16.8
16.6
15.9
15.0
13.8
13.8
13.4
12.1
11.9
11.0
11.0
10.4
more than 10
10.1
8.0
8.0
7.3
7.2
7.1
6.9
6.6
6.3
6.3
Li
Odebrecht
Batista
Birla/Pilani
Koç
Yevtushenkov
Potanin
Binladen
Diniz
Li
Angelini
Garza Laguera
Rupert
Paulmann
Gerdau
Fridman
Garza Sada
Zambrano
Luksic
Servitje
Dhanin
Sabanci
Falabella
Mahindra
Moraes
Zobel
Sawiris
Weise
Martin
Camargo Corrêa
Premji
Mourinho
Diez Fernandez
Kwok
Swire
Ackerman
Ardila Lulle
Emerging Market MNEs
and their International Expansion
Company/trait
home
country
Key Competitive Advantages
Countries with operations
% intl
sales
Aramex
United Arab
Emirates
Knowledge of & relationships with
clients in Middle East
60 countries in Middle East,
Asia, and globally
>80%
Femsa
Mexico
Strategic alliance with Coca-Cola;
client relationships in Latin America;
diversification; flexibility
Argentina, Brazil, Colombia,
Costa Rica, Guatemala,
Nicaragua, Panama, Peru,
Venezuela, Philippines, US
<20%
GEA
Colombia
Client relationships in Central
America & Andean region;
diversification; flexibility
Chile, Dominican Republic,
Haití, Malaysia, Panamá, Peru,
US, Venezuela,
<20%
Geely
China
Low-cost production; Volvo
technology; flexibility
Australia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka,
Malaysia, Russia, Sweden, UK,
Ukraine, US,
20%
Itaúsa
Brazil
Client relationships in Latin America;
diversification; flexibility
Argentina, Cayman Islands,
Chile, China, Colombia, EU,
Japan, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru,
Switzerland, UAE, Uruguay, US
<20%
LAN/LATAM
Chile
Routes & client relations in Latin
America; high quality service
Argentina, Brazil, Colombia,
Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, US
>50%
MTN
South Africa
Knowledge of African markets; client
relationships in Africa
18 African countries;
Afghanistan, Cyprus, Iran,
60%
Wipro
India
Client relationships with global
clients; low-cost service; previous
diversification
mainly US, EU; Singapore
89%
Underground Economy
Source: Finance & Development, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/06/singh.htm
Emerging Market vs Triad Growth
Source: http://www.europeanbusinessreview.com/?p=3301#!prettyPhoto
Conclusiones
•  El crecimiento economico favorece a los
paises emergentes en el siglo 21
•  Es muy util organizer la perspectiva
estrategica en la estructura de cadenas
globales de valor
•  En casi todos paises la diversificacion
produce mejores resultados que enfoque
estrecho
Ingresos Per Capita en Varios Paises, 1990-2013
Per Capita GDP
(1990 International Geary-­‐Khamis dollars) http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm 1990
1995
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
2,013
France
17,647
18,349
20,422
21,536
22,223
20,297
19,539
19,480
Germany 15,929
17,299
18,944
19,417
20,801
18,836
18,674
19,784
United Kingdom 16,430
17,561
20,353
22,518
23,742
19,209
19,578
20,001
United States 23,201
24,603
28,467
30,481
31,178
30,040
30,539
31,866
Czechoslovakia 8,513
(Czech Republic 7,956 for 2009-­‐2013)
8,833
10,771
12,925
11,156
11,063
10,455
Poland 5,113
5,623
7,309
8,527
10,160
8,201
8,826
9,149
Russian Federation 7,779
4,813
5,277
7,303
9,111
6,658
8,177
10,593
Argentina 6,433
8,013
8,581
9,019
10,995
10,083
12,074
14,765
Brazil 4,920
5,296
5,532
5,878
6,429
6,196
8,026
7,780
Mexico 6,085
6,001
7,275
7,511
7,979
6,370
7,300
8,009
China 1,871
2,863
3,421
5,575
6,725
7,328
8,564
12,486
India 1,309
1,553
1,892
2,423
2,975
3,250
3,967
3,984
Indonesia
2,514
3,369
3,276
3,870
4,428
4,583
5,873
6,577
Japan 18,789
19,979
20,738
21,976
22,816
23,537
25,403
21,532
Iran
3,526
4,162
4,838
6,045
6,944
6,936
7,886
6,285
Saudi Arabia 8,993
8,091
7,650
8,079
8,435
6,799
8,108
10,298
Turkey 5,399
5,775
6,446
7,449
8,066
6,652
7,723
7,919
Algeria 2,947
2,658
2,863
3,374
3,520
2,752
3,136
3,670
Egypt 2,523
2,496
2,936
3,200
3,725
4,219
4,748
5,329
Nigeria
1,112
1,113
1,161
1,346
1,524
1,199
2,491
3,104
South Africa 3,834
3,646
3,890
4,316
4,793
4,883
6,119
5,358
World Average 5,150
5,446
6,038
6,960
7,614
7,073
7,572
8,061
Sources: data from Maddison database: http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm and World Bank database: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
GDP/capita and GDP growth rate, selected countries and years
Country/
year
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2020*
2030*
2040*
2050*
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
gdp/capita
growth rate
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Mexico
Russia
S Africa
USA
Germany
Japan
9.1
7,136
7.9
7,175
-4.3
7,714
4.4
7,906
4.3
11,095
-0.7
11,069
-1
10,440
-4.83
11,104
7.3
11,497
4.5
11,939
4.8
15,347
3.9
21,033
4
29,268
3.6
39,892
3.3
7.8
814
13.5
1,101
3.8
1,849
10.9
2,667
8.4
4,843
10.5
6,010
3.7
6,541
9.5
7,156
10.1
7,745
8.9
8,391
9
13,938
5.9
21,174
3.4
30,203
3.5
43,155
2.8
6.7
1,013
5.3
1,217
5.5
1,417
7.6
1,741
4
2,898
8.2
3,057
-2.5
3,153
4.5
3,374
8.4
3,611
8.5
3,855
8.2
5,813
6.1
9,290
6.2
14,844
5.5
21,899
4.6
8.7
1,615
3.5
2,073
9
2,785
8.4
2,679
4.9
5,101
-4.6
4,182
-8.5
4,072
-1.3
4,259
6
4,458
6.1
4,634
5.4
6,179
4.7
8,556
4.5
11,731
3.9
15,735
3.8
9.2
9,955
2.6
9,785
5.1
9,524
-6.2
11,406
6.6
14,643
4.3
14,778
0.1
13,229
-9.3
13,627
4.3
13,932
3.6
14,296
4
17,794
4.1
23,301
3.8
29,512
3.2
36,718
2.9
NA
NA
NA
12,626
-3
7,851
-4.1
8,613
10
18,589
-3.6
20,432
2.6
18,702
-8.5
19,647
5
20,566
4.5
21,565
4.6
29,249
2.9
40,390
2.5
53,479
1.8
67,112
1.3
6.6
8,255
-1.2
7,975
-0.3
7,490
3.1
7,641
4.2
11,328
3.0
10,892
-2.2
9,974
-7.3
10,181
3.2
10,440
3.6
10,620
2.7
12,720
3.4
17,425
4.3
23,970
4
31,493
3.6
-0.3
28,562
4.1
31,899
1.9
33,874
2.5
39,545
4.2
47,744
3.4
48,372
-0.3
46,064
-3.9
46,936
2.8
47,776
2.7
48,828
3.1
55,175
2.2
64,966
2.5
78,445
2.5
92,993
2.2
1.4
22,497
2.3
25,881
5.3
27,809
1.7
30,298
3.1
31,816
4.1
36,985
3.4
35,878
-3.2
36,848
2.5
37,501
1.6
38,193
1.7
44,264
1.5
51,763
1.1
64,454
1.8
81,578
1.6
2.8
21,265
6.3
26,523
5.6
28,026
1.9
28,889
2.3
29,478
4.9
33,522
1.8
32,496
-3
33,471
3
33,959
1.4
34,604
1.8
40,923
1.8
50,354
1.5
60,430
1.2
75,232
1.5
Sources: World Bank GDP data up to 2012; * = PwC forecasts of GDP for subsequent years. UN data for population