Índice de Competitividad Global 2015-2016

Índice de Competitividad Global 2015-2016
Análisis de los Resultados de Chile
World Economic Forum – Escuela de Gobierno, UAI
Septiembre 2015
El 30 de septiembre de 2015, el Foro Económico Mundial y la Escuela de Gobierno de la
Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, institución socia del Foro en su programa de competitividad, lanzaron el
Informe de Competitividad Mundial 2015-2016 (ver http://www.weforum.org/issues/globalcompetitiveness).
En esta nueva entrega del informe, Chile retrocedió dos puestos en el Índice de Competitividad
Global (ICG) respecto al año 2014, ubicándose en el lugar 35 entre 140 países 1. Pese a mejoras
puntuales en 2007, 2010 y 2014, esto confirma una tendencia negativa en la posición de Chile desde
2004 a la fecha. (Gráfico N°1).
Gráfico N°1
Chile: ranking histórico Indice de Competitividad Global (ICG) WEF-UAI
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
22
23
27
26
28
30
30
31
48
57
64
67
33
34
33
35
48
55
57
65
68
52
58
65
66
74
60
64
69
72
56
60
69
53
58
58
66
68
67
68
53
61
61
69
69
73
74
Chile
57
61
65
66
57
61
69
75
78
86
55
56
83
Brazil
México
Perú
Colombia
Fuente: Elaboración en base a datos WEF-UAI
Este año fuimos sobrepasados por República Checa (37 en 2014, 31 en 2015), España (35 en 2014, 33 en 2015) y Kuwait (40 en
2014, 34 en 2015). En consecuencia, Chile descendió del puesto 33 en 2014 al puesto 35 en 2015 (Puerto Rico, que estaba en el
lugar 32 en 2014 no fue incluido en la medición 2015, por lo que sólo bajamos dos puestos y no tres).
1
Julio Guzmán C.
[email protected]
Fernando Medina G.
[email protected]
En términos comparativos, Chile continúa liderando la región. Este año se amplía la brecha en
términos del índice de competitividad entre Chile, Perú (69) y Brasil (75), pero se reduce entre Chile,
México (57) y Colombia (61). Estos movimientos se deben a la caída en el ranking de los dos
primeros países y a la subida en el ranking de los dos últimos.
Respecto a las fortalezas del país, al observar los 3 subíndices y los 12 pilares a partir de los cuales
se construye el ICG (Gráfico N°2), se observa que el desarrollo del mercado financiero (21), el
entorno macroeconómico (29) y la calidad de las instituciones (32) sobresalen. En tanto que las
principales debilidades del país, se encuentran en la salud y educación primaria (74), la eficiencia del
mercado laboral (63) y la sofisticación de los negocios (53).
Gráfico N°2
Índice de Competitividad Global WEF-UAI
Ranking según Subíndices y Pilares, Chile 2014 y 2015
Chile 2015
Chile 2014
REQUERIMIENTOS BÁSICOS (26.3%)
36
30
Instituciones
28
32
45
Infraestructura
Entorno Macroeconómico
22
49
29
Salud y educación primaria
70
POTENCIADORES DE EFICIENCIA (50%)
29
74
31
33
32
Educación superior y capacitación
Eficiencia mercado de bienes
40
34
Eficiencia Mercado Laboral
63
50
Desarrollo Mercado Financiero
19
21
39
Tecnología
Tamaño del Mercado
42
41
44
50
49
SOFISTICACIÓN E INNOVACIÓN (23.7%)
53
Sofisticación Negocios
Innovación
48
0
10
20
30
40
50
55
50
60
70
80
Posición en el ranking
Fuente: Elaboración en base a datos WEF-UAI
En comparación con el año 2014, se avanzó en tan sólo 3 de los 12 pilares del ICG (Infraestructura,
Tecnología y Sofisticación en los Negocios) y se retrocedió en los 9 pilares restantes. En cuanto a
los subíndices, el mayor retroceso corresponde al subíndice de Requerimientos Básicos (baja del
lugar 30 al 36), seguido por el subíndice Potenciadores de Eficiencia (baja del lugar 29 al 31) y el
subíndice Sofisticación e Innovación (baja del lugar 49 al 50). La Figura adjunta da cuenta de la
agrupación de pilares en subíndices.
Julio Guzmán C.
[email protected]
Fernando Medina G.
[email protected]
Agrupación de los pilares en subíndices
Requerimientos Básicos:
•
Instituciones
•
Infraestructura
•
Entorno Macroeconómico
•
Salud y educación primaria
Claves para economías impulsadas por:
FACTORES
Potenciadores de Eficiencia:
•
Educación superior y capacitación
•
Eficiencia del mercado de bienes
•
Eficiencia del mercado laboral
•
Desarrollo del mercado financiero
•
Disposición de tecnología
•
Tamaño del mercado
Clave para economías impulsadas por:
EFICIENCIA
Clave para economías impulsadas por:
Factores de Sofisticación e Innovación:
•
Sofisticación en los negocios
•
Innovación
INNOVACIÓN
Fuente: WEF
En términos comparativos con los países de la OCDE (Gráfico N°3), aún existen brechas relevantes
en cuanto a la competitividad de Chile versus este grupo de naciones. Los principales pilares
respecto a las cuales Chile se encuentra rezagado son salud y educación primaria, tecnología,
sofisticación de los negocios, innovación e infraestructura.
Gráfico N°3
Innovación
Sofisticación
Negocios
Tamaño del Mercado
Instituciones
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Infraestructura
Entorno
Macroeconómico
Salud y educación
primaria
LAC
OCDE
Chile
Educación superior y
capacitación
Tecnología
Eficiencia mercado de
bienes
Desarrollo Mercado
Financiero
Eficiencia Mercado
Laboral
Fuente: Elaboración en base a datos WEF-UAI
Julio Guzmán C.
[email protected]
Fernando Medina G.
[email protected]
¿Qué es y para qué sirve la competitividad de un país?
La competitividad de un país corresponde al conjunto de instituciones, políticas y factores que
determinan el nivel de productividad de un país. A su vez, el nivel de productividad de un país
determina la capacidad que tiene su economía para crecer y desarrollarse en el tiempo. Una
economía más competitiva es una economía más preparada para mantener un ritmo de crecimiento
potencial alto y sostenido.
¿Cómo se mide el Índice de Competitividad Global del WEF?
El Índice de Competitividad Global, ICG, se mide anualmente sobre la base de tres subíndices:
Requerimientos Básicos (26.3%), Potenciadores de Eficiencia (50%) y Factores de Sofisticación e
Innovación (23.7%). Estos subíndices están compuestos a su vez por doce pilares, tales como
Instituciones, Infraestructura, Eficiencia del Mercado Laboral, Desarrollo Financiero, entre otros.
Estos pilares se construyen a partir de 114 indicadores que se calculan a partir de datos “duros”,
tales como deuda pública, esperanza de vida, asistencia escolar, entre otros, y de datos cualitativos
recolectados por la Encuesta de Opinión Ejecutiva, que en el caso de Chile es aplicada anualmente
por la Escuela de Gobierno de la Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, en su carácter de institución socia del
WEF.
Julio Guzmán C.
[email protected]
Fernando Medina G.
[email protected]
The Global Competitiveness Index 2015–2016 Rankings
Economy
Score1
Prev.2
1
Switzerland
5.76
1
2
Singapore
5.68
2
3
United States
5.61
3
4
Germany
5.53
5
5
Netherlands
5.50
6
Japan
7
8
Trend3
Economy
Score1
Prev.2
Trend3
Economy
Score1
Prev.2
48
Malta
4.39
47
95
El Salvador
3.87
84
49
South Africa
4.39
56
96
Zambia
3.87
96
50
Panama
4.38
48
97
Seychelles
3.86
92
51
Turkey
4.37
45
98
Dominican Republic
3.86
101
8
52
Costa Rica
4.33
51
99
Kenya
3.85
90
5.47
6
53
Romania
4.32
59
100
Nepal
3.85
102
Hong Kong SAR
5.46
7
54
Bulgaria
4.32
54
101
Lebanon
3.84
113
Finland
5.45
4
55
India
4.31
71
102
Kyrgyz Republic
3.83
108
106
9
Sweden
5.43
10
56
Vietnam
4.30
68
103
Gabon
3.83
10
United Kingdom
5.43
9
57
Mexico
4.29
61
104
Mongolia
3.81
98
11
Norway
5.41
11
58
Rwanda
4.29
62
105
Bhutan
3.80
103
12
Denmark
5.33
13
59
Slovenia
4.28
70
106
Argentina
3.79
104
13
Canada
5.31
15
60
Macedonia, FYR
4.28
63
107
Bangladesh
3.76
109
14
Qatar
5.30
16
61
Colombia
4.28
66
108
Nicaragua
3.75
99
15
Taiwan, China
5.28
14
62
Oman
4.25
46
109
Ethiopia
3.75
118
16
New Zealand
5.25
17
63
Hungary
4.25
60
110
Senegal
3.73
112
17
United Arab Emirates
5.24
12
64
Jordan
4.23
64
111
Bosnia & Herzegovina
3.71
n/a
18
Malaysia
5.23
20
65
Cyprus
4.23
58
112
Cape Verde
3.70
114
3.70
107
19
Belgium
5.20
18
66
Georgia
4.22
69
113
Lesotho
20
Luxembourg
5.20
19
67
Slovak Republic
4.22
75
114
Cameroon
3.69
116
21
Australia
5.15
22
68
Sri Lanka
4.21
73
115
Uganda
3.66
122
22
France
5.13
23
69
Peru
4.21
65
116
Egypt
3.66
119
23
Austria
5.12
21
70
Montenegro
4.20
67
117
Bolivia
3.60
105
120
24
Ireland
5.11
25
71
Botswana
4.19
74
118
Paraguay
3.60
25
Saudi Arabia
5.07
24
72
Morocco
4.17
72
119
Ghana
3.58
111
26
Korea, Rep.
4.99
26
73
Uruguay
4.09
80
120
Tanzania
3.57
121
117
27
Israel
4.98
27
74
Iran, Islamic Rep.
4.09
83
121
Guyana
3.56
28
China
4.89
28
75
Brazil
4.08
57
122
Benin
3.55
n/a
29
Iceland
4.83
30
76
Ecuador
4.07
n/a
123
Gambia, The
3.48
125
30
Estonia
4.74
29
77
Croatia
4.07
77
124
Nigeria
3.46
127
31
Czech Republic
4.69
37
78
Guatemala
4.05
78
125
Zimbabwe
3.45
124
32
Thailand
4.64
31
79
Ukraine
4.03
76
126
Pakistan
3.45
129
33
Spain
4.59
35
80
Tajikistan
4.03
91
127
Mali
3.44
128
34
Kuwait
4.59
40
81
Greece
4.02
81
128
Swaziland
3.40
123
35
Chile
4.58
33
82
Armenia
4.01
85
129
Liberia
3.37
n/a
36
Lithuania
4.55
41
83
Lao PDR
4.00
93
130
Madagascar
3.32
130
37
Indonesia
4.52
34
84
Moldova
4.00
82
131
Myanmar
3.32
134
38
Portugal
4.52
36
85
Namibia
3.99
88
132
Venezuela
3.30
131
39
Bahrain
4.52
44
86
Jamaica
3.97
86
133
Mozambique
3.20
133
40
Azerbaijan
4.50
38
87
Algeria
3.97
79
134
Haiti
3.18
137
41
Poland
4.49
43
88
Honduras
3.95
100
135
Malawi
3.15
132
Trend3
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42
Kazakhstan
4.49
50
89
Trinidad and Tobago
3.94
89
136
Burundi
3.11
139
43
Italy
4.46
49
90
Cambodia
3.94
95
137
Sierra Leone
3.06
138
44
Latvia
4.45
42
91
Côte d’Ivoire
3.93
115
138
Mauritania
3.03
141
45
Russian Federation
4.44
53
92
Tunisia
3.93
87
139
Chad
2.96
143
46
Mauritius
4.43
39
93
Albania
3.93
97
140
Guinea
2.84
144
47
Philippines
4.39
52
94
Serbia
3.89
94
Advanced
Economies
Middle East,
North Africa, and Pakistan
Emerging and
Developing Asia
Latin America
and the Caribbean
Commonwealth of
Independent States
Emerging and
Developing Europe
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Note: The Global Competitiveness Index captures the fundamentals of an economy. Recent developments, including currency (e.g., Switzerland) and commodity price fluctuations (e.g., Azerbaijan,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia), geopolitical uncertainties (e.g., Ukraine), and security issues (e.g., Turkey) must be kept in mind when interpreting the results.
1 Scale ranges from 1 to 7.
2 This shows the rank out of the 144 economies in the GCI 2014–2015.
3 The trend line shows the evolution in percentile rank since 2007; breaks in the trend line reflect years when the economy was not included in the GCI.
© 2015 World Economic Forum
The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016 | xv
2: Country/Economy Profiles
Chile
Key indicators, 2014
GDP (PPP) per capita (int’l $), 1990–2014
Population (millions) ........................................ 17.8
GDP (US$ billions) ........................................ 258.0
GDP per capita (US$) ................................. 14,477
GDP (PPP) as share (%) of world total ............ 0.38
Chile
25,000
Latin America and the Caribbean
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Global Competitiveness Index
Rank
(out of 140)
Score
(1–7)
Institutions
7
Innovation
GCI 2015–2016 ...................................................... 35 ..... 4.6
GCI 2014–2015 (out of 144) ..................................... 33 ......4.6
GCI 2013–2014 (out of 148) ..................................... 34 ......4.6
GCI 2012–2013 (out of 144) ..................................... 33 ......4.6
Infrastructure
6
5
Business
sophistication
Macroeconomic
environment
4
3
2
Basic requirements (26.3%) .......................................36 ......5.1
Market size
1st pillar: Institutions ................................................. 32 ......4.6
2nd pillar: Infrastructure ............................................ 45 ......4.6
3rd pillar: Macroeconomic environment .................... 29 ......5.6
4th pillar: Health and primary education ................... 74 ......5.6
Health and
primary
education
1
Higher education
and training
Technological
readiness
Financial market
development
Efficiency enhancers (50.0%) .....................................31 ......4.7
Goods market
efficiency
Labor market efficiency
5th pillar: Higher education and training ................... 33 ......5.0
6th pillar: Goods market efficiency ............................ 40 ......4.6
7th pillar: Labor market efficiency ............................. 63 ......4.3
8th pillar: Financial market development ................... 21 ......4.6
9th pillar: Technological readiness ............................ 39 ......4.8
10th pillar: Market size.............................................. 44 ......4.6
Chile
Latin America and the Caribbean
Stage of development
Innovation and sophistication factors (23.7%) ...........50 ......3.8
11th pillar: Business sophistication .......................... 53 ......4.1
12th pillar: Innovation ............................................... 50 ......3.5
1
Transition
1–2
Factor
driven
2
Transition
2–3
3
Efficiency
driven
Innovation
driven
The most problematic factors for doing business
Score*
Restrictive labor regulations ...............................................18.0
Inadequately educated workforce ......................................15.8
Inefficient government bureaucracy ...................................14.6
Insufficient capacity to innovate ...........................................9.5
Complexity of tax regulations...............................................7.9
Inadequate supply of infrastructure ......................................6.8
Tax rates..............................................................................5.7
Access to financing .............................................................5.6
Policy instability ...................................................................4.9
Poor work ethic in labor force..............................................4.0
Crime and theft ...................................................................3.0
Poor public health ...............................................................2.1
Corruption ...........................................................................1.3
Government instability/coups ..............................................0.4
Inflation ................................................................................0.4
Foreign currency regulations ................................................0.1
0
*
5
10
15
20
25
From the list of factors, respondents were asked to select the five most problematic for doing business in their country and to rank them between 1 (most problematic) and 5. The score
corresponds to the responses weighted according to their rankings.
138 | The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016
© 2015 World Economic Forum
30
2: Country/Economy Profiles
Chile
The Global Competitiveness Index in detail
INDICATOR
VALUE RANK/140
INDICATOR
1st pillar: Institutions
VALUE RANK/140
6th pillar: Goods market efficiency (cont’d.)
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.08
1.09
1.10
1.11
1.12
1.13
1.14
1.15
1.16
1.17
1.18
1.19
1.20
1.21
Property rights ....................................................... 5.1 ............35
Intellectual property protection ............................... 4.2 ............49
Diversion of public funds ........................................ 4.6 ............31
Public trust in politicians ......................................... 3.3 ............53
Irregular payments and bribes ................................ 5.5 ............28
Judicial independence............................................ 5.0 ............31
Favoritism in decisions of government officials ....... 3.6 ............42
Wastefulness of government spending ................... 4.2 ............21
Burden of government regulation ........................... 3.7 ............45
Efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes .... 4.0 ............47
Efficiency of legal framework in challenging regs. ... 4.0 ............42
Transparency of government policymaking............. 4.9 ............26
Business costs of terrorism .................................... 5.6 ............52
Business costs of crime and violence..................... 4.6 ............71
Organized crime ..................................................... 5.6 ............42
Reliability of police services .................................... 6.3 ..............4
Ethical behavior of firms ......................................... 4.5 ............32
Strength of auditing and reporting standards ......... 5.2 ............36
Efficacy of corporate boards .................................. 5.2 ............40
Protection of minority shareholders’ interests ......... 4.4 ............42
Strength of investor protection, 0–10 (best)* .......... 5.8 ............55
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
Quality of overall infrastructure ............................... 4.6 ............48
Quality of roads ...................................................... 4.9 ............35
Quality of railroad infrastructure .............................. 2.4 ............79
Quality of port infrastructure ................................... 4.9 ............35
Quality of air transport infrastructure....................... 5.2 ............36
Available airline seat km/week, millions* ............. 619.0 ............38
Quality of electricity supply ..................................... 5.5 ............46
Mobile telephone subscriptions/100 pop.* ......... 133.3 ............40
Fixed-telephone lines/100 pop.* ........................... 19.2 ............57
3.01
3.02
3.03
3.04
3.05
Government budget balance, % GDP*................. –1.4 ............38
Gross national savings, % GDP* .......................... 20.3 ............70
Inflation, annual % change* .................................... 4.4 ............90
General government debt, % GDP* ..................... 13.9 ............10
Country credit rating, 0–100 (best)* ...................... 78.5 ............22
4.01
4.02
4.03
4.04
4.05
4.06
4.07
4.08
4.09
4.10
Malaria cases/100,000 pop.* ................................ S.L. ...........n/a
Business impact of malaria ............................. N/Appl. ...........n/a
Tuberculosis cases/100,000 pop.* ....................... 16.0 ............35
Business impact of tuberculosis ............................. 6.6 ............19
HIV prevalence, % adult pop.* ............................... 0.3 ............63
Business impact of HIV/AIDS ................................. 6.0 ............47
Infant mortality, deaths/1,000 live births* ................ 7.1 ............46
Life expectancy, years*......................................... 79.8 ............32
Quality of primary education ................................... 3.0 ..........108
Primary education enrollment, net %* .................. 92.0 ............84
5.01
5.02
5.03
5.04
5.05
5.06
5.07
5.08
Secondary education enrollment, gross %* .......... 89.0 ............72
Tertiary education enrollment, gross %*................ 74.4 ............19
Quality of the education system ............................. 3.4 ............86
Quality of math and science education .................. 3.3 ..........107
Quality of management schools ............................. 5.3 ............21
Internet access in schools ...................................... 4.8 ............49
Availability of specialized training services .............. 4.7 ............36
Extent of staff training ............................................ 4.1 ............52
2nd pillar: Infrastructure
6.06
6.07
6.08
6.09
6.10
6.11
6.12
6.13
6.14
6.15
6.16
No. procedures to start a business* .......................... 7 ............76
No. days to start a business* ................................. 5.5 ............24
Agricultural policy costs.......................................... 4.6 ............19
Prevalence of non-tariff barriers .............................. 4.9 ............14
Trade tariffs, % duty* .............................................. 4.6 ............65
Prevalence of foreign ownership............................. 5.4 ............16
Business impact of rules on FDI ............................. 5.2 ............24
Burden of customs procedures .............................. 4.9 ............29
Imports as a percentage of GDP* ........................ 33.6 ............97
Degree of customer orientation .............................. 4.4 ............82
Buyer sophistication ............................................... 4.0 ............28
7.01
7.02
7.03
7.04
7.05
7.06
7.07
7.08
7.09
7.10
Cooperation in labor-employer relations ................. 4.5 ............55
Flexibility of wage determination ............................. 5.8 ............12
Hiring and firing practices ....................................... 3.3 ..........110
Redundancy costs, weeks of salary* .................... 27.4 ..........117
Effect of taxation on incentives to work .................. 4.6 ............19
Pay and productivity............................................... 4.2 ............54
Reliance on professional management ................... 4.6 ............42
Country capacity to retain talent............................. 4.8 ............16
Country capacity to attract talent ........................... 4.2 ............22
Women in labor force, ratio to men* ..................... 0.69 ............98
8.01
8.02
8.03
8.04
8.05
8.06
8.07
8.08
Availability of financial services ............................... 5.5 ............21
Affordability of financial services ............................. 4.9 ............41
Financing through local equity market .................... 4.5 ............24
Ease of access to loans ......................................... 3.7 ............20
Venture capital availability ....................................... 3.3 ............32
Soundness of banks .............................................. 6.3 ..............9
Regulation of securities exchanges ........................ 5.4 ............19
Legal rights index, 0–12 (best)* ................................. 4 ............80
9.01
9.02
9.03
9.04
9.05
9.06
9.07
Availability of latest technologies ............................ 5.6 ............33
Firm-level technology absorption ............................ 5.2 ............38
FDI and technology transfer ................................... 5.2 ............14
Individuals using Internet, %* ............................... 72.4 ............36
Fixed-broadband Internet subscriptions/100 pop.* 14.1 ............56
Int’l Internet bandwidth, kb/s per user* ................ 73.1 ............39
Mobile-broadband subscriptions/100 pop.* ......... 50.5 ............55
10.01
10.02
10.03
10.04
Domestic market size index, 1–7 (best)*................. 4.4 ............41
Foreign market size index, 1–7 (best)* .................... 5.1 ............49
GDP (PPP$ billions)* .......................................... 409.3 ............42
Exports as a percentage of GDP* ........................ 33.7 ............85
11.01
11.02
11.03
11.04
11.05
11.06
11.07
11.08
11.09
Local supplier quantity ........................................... 4.4 ............80
Local supplier quality.............................................. 4.7 ............43
State of cluster development.................................. 3.7 ............72
Nature of competitive advantage ............................ 3.3 ............82
Value chain breadth................................................ 3.9 ............58
Control of international distribution ......................... 4.1 ............39
Production process sophistication.......................... 4.4 ............40
Extent of marketing ................................................ 4.8 ............30
Willingness to delegate authority ............................ 3.7 ............71
12.01
12.02
12.03
12.04
12.05
12.06
12.07
Capacity for innovation........................................... 3.8 ............85
Quality of scientific research institutions ................. 4.1 ............48
Company spending on R&D................................... 3.0 ............92
University-industry collaboration in R&D ................. 4.2 ............39
Gov’t procurement of advanced tech products ...... 3.1 ............89
Availability of scientists and engineers .................... 4.6 ............32
PCT patents, applications/million pop.* .................. 7.1 ............43
7th pillar: Labor market efficiency
8th pillar: Financial market development
3rd pillar: Macroeconomic environment
4th pillar: Health and primary education
5th pillar: Higher education and training
6th pillar: Goods market efficiency
6.01
6.02
6.03
6.04
6.05
Intensity of local competition .................................. 5.6 ............22
Extent of market dominance .................................. 2.9 ..........129
Effectiveness of anti-monopoly policy ..................... 4.4 ............29
Effect of taxation on incentives to invest................. 3.7 ............64
Total tax rate, % profits* ....................................... 27.9 ............30
9th pillar: Technological readiness
10th pillar: Market size
11th pillar: Business sophistication
12th pillar: Innovation
Notes: Values are on a 1-to-7 scale unless otherwise annotated with an asterisk (*). For further details and explanation, please refer to the section “How to Read
the Country/Economy Profiles” on page 89.
© 2015 World Economic Forum
The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016 | 139