Reporte de estado del proyecto - Inter

FONDO MULTILATERAL DE INVERSIONES
REPORTE DE ESTADO DEL PROYECTO
JULIO 2012 - DICIEMBRE 2012
SECCIÓN 1: SÍNTESIS DEL PROYECTO
NOMBRE DEL PROYECTO: Impulsando herramienta psicométrica para expandir el financiamiento a PE
Nro. Proyecto: RG-M1203 - Nro. Operación: ATN/ME-12932-RG
Propósito: The specific objective is to roll out the psychometric credit-scoring tool with new applicants of four financial institutions in different countries of LAC,
test the viability of the scoring tool, develop scalable models for its deployment, and improve the technology by further automating the score process.
País Administrador
PERÚ
Agencia Ejecutora:
País Beneficiario
PERÚ
Grupo
SME - Desarrollo de la pequeña y
mediana empresa
Entrepreneurial Finance Lab SAC
Subgrupo
SEFI - Financiamiento de la pequeña
empresa
Líder equipo de diseño:
Rojo, Francisco
Líder equipo de supervisión: Giesecke, Jaime Arturo
CRONOLOGÍA DE EVENTOS
RECURSOS
PUNTAJE DE DESEMPEÑO
Puntaje actual: Satisfactorio: 3.271
Promedio FOMIN: 2.522
----- Promedio desempeño FOMIN
RIESGOS EXTERNOS
CAPACIDAD INSTITUCIONAL
Riesgo
Administración Financiera: Medio
Adquisiciones: Alto
Capacidad Técnica: Medio
DICIEMBRE 2012
Página 1
ATN/ME-12932-RG
FONDO MULTILATERAL DE INVERSIONES
---- Promedio de riesgo FOMIN: 0.639
SECCIÓN 2: DESEMPEÑO
Resumen del desempeño del proyecto desde el inicio
We have been successful in signing multiple banks to join the project, all with the intention of using EFL to help them penetrate previously inaccessible parts of the
SME market. More banks will sign soon (or have signed) and will start testing in quarters 1 and 2.
The major challenge has been the speed at which banks scale in the SME segment. This is something that we can influence but not control. For many reasons,
banks have risk analysis and service delivery structures that are resistant to change.
The major risk to the project (and to EFL) is that banks pay for the service, implement it, but grow very slowly with low volumes. We are mitigating this by
- Speaking about scale requirements from the first conversations
- Improving the description of bank responsiblities in the contract
- Including a "Letter of Commitment" step that makes banks put their commitment into print
- Creating and disseminating weekly reporting on volumes
- Organizing supervisory committees ahead of time to review progress towards scale
The project has a high chance of achieving its goals, it just may take more than 4 banks.
The major focus is on designing our processes and service level to include more banks. Not all banks will be successful (CEOs leave, strategies change, markets
change, internal politics evolve) so we need to a) increase the chances of success in all banks (using the bullet points above) and b) spread our bets.
Comentarios del líder de Equipo de Supervisión
De acuerdo con los comentarios de la Agencia Ejecutora
For the next PSR cycle, we are requesting the executing unit present the proposed changes in the tariffs and subsidies to serve a greater number of financial
institutions; to propose an action plan to work the sustainability strategy; and to improve the quality of beneficiaries reported in system information.
Resumen del desempeño del proyecto en los últimos seis meses
The major success of the semester have been in terms of business development and implementation. In terms of business development, we are finally gaining
significant traction in Brazil - a large but challenging market. In terms of implementation, we have been rolling out EFL at a larger scale in Peru and for the first
time in Costa Rica and preparing the groundwork for Guatemala (launch in the first week of Feb 2013). the result is that millions of dollars to hundreds of
previously inaccessible entrepreneurs are now being lent out against the EFL tool.
There are still very few "bad loans" in the portfolios, meaning that test adaptation will take more time. In essence, we have to use a regional base model until we
have more "bad loans" that will help us create customized models.
We plan to launch 2 more banks within 6 months - one in Guatemala and one in Brazil. We also plan to sign one more bank, hopefully in Brazil. Our efforts are
firmly focused on:
- Model Performance: As we start getting data back, we can start to customize the model. The goal is to have each bank strat to benefit from customization.
- Improved Implementation: Taking lessons learned to the next implementations. The goal is to average faster growth in the next banks to launch, than in the
previous banks.
- Targeting Big Banks: The participation of a large bank *could* put EFL's test and loan volume numbers on a fundamentally different growth curve.
Comentarios del líder de Equipo de Supervisión
De acuerdo con los comentarios de la Agencia Ejecutora
We help EFL to clarify the concept of the psychometric model to another NGO and potential partners.
SECCIÓN 3: INDICADORES E HITOS
Indicadores
Propósito: The specific objective is
to roll out the psychometric creditscoring tool with new applicants of
four financial institutions in
different countries of LAC, test the
viability of the scoring tool, develop
scalable models for its deployment,
DICIEMBRE 2012
Línea de base Intermedio 1 Intermedio 2 Intermedio 3
P.I1 Number of financial institutions (FI) implementing the
psychometric methodology on a pilot basis
0
P.I2 Number of SMEs that have access to finance thanks to the
psychometric analysis tool.
0
P.I3 Amount of US dollars that are channeled to SME by the
partnered FI thanks to the psychometric analysis tool.
0
P.I4 The models have been improved and have a special
customization depending the region/country and industry to
Página 2
Planeado
Logrado
4
Oct 2014
2000
Oct 2014
20000000
Oct 2014
3
Oct 2012
178
Oct 2012
3928506.71
Oct 2012
No
Estado
ATN/ME-12932-RG
FONDO MULTILATERAL DE INVERSIONES
and improve the technology by
further automating the score
process.
Componente 1: Promotion of the
psychometric tool to Financial
Institutions (FI) identification of
potential implementing FIs
which the entrepreneur belongs.
P.I5 The methodology is automated, so at least 5,000 tests could
be processed per day and scores can be turned around in
under 3 hours.
P.I6 The prediction capability of the methodology and its
potential to reach otherwise excluded SMEs is evaluated,
documented and disseminated.
C1.I1 Number of countries where a regulatory and legal analysis of
the methodology appropriateness was conducted
C1.I2 Number of FIs that are aware of the psychometric
methodology and its benefits
Oct 2014
Oct 2014
No
Oct 2014
0
Oct 2011
0
2
Oct 2012
100
Oct 2012
6
Oct 2012
1
Oct 2012
4
Oct 2013
200
Oct 2013
12
Oct 2014
6
Oct 2014
Peso: 20%
C1.I3 Number of FI that received a custom made presentation of
the methodology.
0
Clasificación: Muy Satisfactorio
C1.I4 Number of detailed project proposal for the implementation
of the methodology developed and presented to FIs
0
Componente 2: Adjustments of the
psychometric tool and scoring
automation
C2.I1 The psychometric model’s ability to predict credit
performance improves by at least .025 AUC
Oct 2014
C2.I2 Functioning extranet for score reporting with audited
security
Oct 2012
Peso: 20%
Clasificación: Satisfactorio
C3.I1 Number of FI implementing the methodology following the
implementation plan developed by EFL.
Peso: 40%
C3.I2 Number of SMEs that are tested with the psychometric
methodology
0
Oct 2011
0
C3.I3 Number of FIs that have a calibrated and tested model that
they could continue to implement for new SME lending. A
mainstream implementation proposal is presented to each
FI.
0
C4.I1 number of study cases documented and disseminated (one
Componente 4: Dissemination of the
of each partnered FI)
lessons learned for potential scale-up of
psychometric risk evaluation
C4.I2 Academic study to promote the innovation in the
0
Clasificación: Satisfactorio
Peso: 20%
10
Oct 2013
4
Oct 2013
C2.I3 Database integration with front-end scoring platforms and
EFL suppliers resulting response download and partner score
calculations into the EFL database without requiring any
manual intervention
C2.I4 End-to-end audit of EFL systems and processes by a
reputable external agency provide an approval in security
confidence to the system
C2.I5 Development of a standardized EFL Application
Programming Interface (API) for score reporting to partner
systems, that would allow them to automatically feed scores
into their internal systems.
Componente 3: Implementation of the
psychometric tool
psychometric field related to entrepreneurial finance is
developed and disseminated
C4.I3 Number of external media stories about EFL
1
Oct 2012
250
Oct 2012
3
Oct 2013
1500
Oct 2013
0
Hitos
Conditions Prior
Latin American Coordinator is hired
FI accepted to pilot the methodology with new clients
The psycometric tool is automated
FI accepted to pilot the methodology with new clients
SMEs have access to finance thanks to the psychometric analysis tool.
FIs accepted to pilot the methodology with new clients
SMEs have access to finance thanks to the psychometric analysis tool.
Oct 2013
Oct 2013
No
Dic 2012
Oct 2014
No
Dic 2012
4
Oct 2014
1
Oct 2014
0
Oct 2011
3
Oct 2012
264
Nov 2012
22
Dic 2012
14
Dic 2012
No
Dic 2012
Si
Jul 2012
No
Dic 2012
4
Oct 2014
8000
Oct 2014
4
Oct 2014
10
Oct 2014
Clasificación: Satisfactorio
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
H6
H7
H8
Si
Dic 2012
3
Dic 2012
309
Oct 2012
En curso
Finalizado
Finalizado
Finalizado
Finalizado
En curso
En curso
Dic 2012
Dic 2012
Dic 2012
4
Dic 2012
En curso
Planeado
Fecha de
cumplimiento
Logrado
Fecha alcanzada
Estado
3
1
1
1
3
500
4
1200
Abr 2012
Abr 2012
Oct 2012
Abr 2013
Oct 2013
Oct 2013
Abr 2014
Jul 2014
3
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
Dic 2011
Oct 2011
Abr 2012
Dic 2012
Dic 2012
Dic 2012
Dic 2012
Dic 2012
Logrado
Logrado
Logrado
FACTORES CRÍTICOS QUE HAN AFECTADO EL DESEMPEÑO
[No se reportaron factores para este período]
SECCIÓN 4: RIESGOS
RIESGOS MÁS RELEVANTES QUE PUEDEN AFECTAR EL DESEMPEÑO FUTURO
Nivel
Bajo
Acción de mitigación
The project will hire psychometricians to adjust the model to the local
culture and develope additional tools to be continually improving the
predictive power of the tool.
Responsable
Project Guest
2. It is not possible to increase predictive
power of the psychometric tool with
additional data and test components.
Bajo
Psychometricians will be contracted to make adjustments of the test
content and modelling procedures, taking into account the local
context, and continue to improve the quality and accuracy of the tool
as more information becomes available from the partner FIs.
Project Guest
3. Political and economic environment in the
country where partnered financial
institutions are located are not conducive to
SME financing
Bajo
The project will work with financial institutions in different countries
Project Guest
1. Predictive power of the tool is not
sufficient for profitable lending in Latin
America and the Caribbean as is in Africa.
NIVEL DE RIESGO DEL PROYECTO: Bajo
NÚMERO TOTAL DE RIESGOS: 3
RIESGOS VIGENTES: 3
RIESGOS NO VIGENTES: 0
RIESGOS MITIGADOS: 0
SECCIÓN 5: SOSTENIBILIDAD
DICIEMBRE 2012
Página 3
ATN/ME-12932-RG
FONDO MULTILATERAL DE INVERSIONES
Probabilidad de que exista sostenibilidad después de terminado el proyecto: P - Probable
FACTORES CRÍTICOS QUE PUEDEN AFECTAR LA SOSTENIBILIDAD DEL PROYECTO
[No se reportaron factores para este período]
Acciones realizadas o a ser implementadas relativas a la sostenibilidad:
We are starting to increase pricing for pilots based on conversations with the IDB to test the long-term willingness to pay on behalf of financial institutions to
confirm the viability of the business model.
SECCIÓN 6: LECCIONES PRÁCTICAS
1. EFL has to adjust to the implementation calendar to account for the slowest part of the approval
chain: the General Counsel. We can potentially charm a CEO into saying "yes", invigorate a head of
SME into thinking big, help a CRO understand how new information can help him or her do their
job better, and inspire a loan officer to reach more clients than he would have previously
considered. However, we have not found a way to get a General Counsel to move any faster. Their
incentives are not aligned with innovation and they are (understandably) very nervous about
external parties working with bank data. There are many things we can do in terms of security and
contracts to ameliorate their concerns, but thoughtful contracting is a necessary and important
part of a bank's processes and cannot be "sped up". To get a project signed by a bank, EFL as to
have high quality and prompt legal advice in addition to lots of patience as we wait for the bank's
reply.
2. To be successful, you have to work with multiple banks because any individual bank may run into
problems, including many problems that are external to EFL. At BBVA Bancomer, the EFL
Champion CEO left, the head of SME left and the project manager left. At Bancredito, the EFL
Champion CEO left and the project manager left. At BanBif, the entire team is still there. But it is
very difficult to know a) if/how/when bank strategy or organization design will be severely
disrupted and b) if the disruption will help or hurt the project. The result is that no bank has 100%
probability of success, even they express commitment, promise to invest, and deposit the copayment. Consequently, the project will need more than the original # of banks to reach the goals
in terms of loan value and # of clients.
DICIEMBRE 2012
Página 4
Relativa a
Design
Autor
Miller, Jared
Implementation
Miller, Jared
ATN/ME-12932-RG