A quick guide to the Spanish general election

A quick guide to the
Spanish general election
with Jose Ignacio Torreblanca
Political Science Professor at UNED and Director of ECFR Madrid.
1. What are polls saying?
What polls are telling us is that a long cycle in Spanish
politics may end on Sunday. Since 1982, two parties,
Conservative (PP) and Socialist (PSOE), have been
able to form government and replace each other. Together, they’ve gathered 75-85% of the vote. But having
already seen the collapse of the socialists, going from
44% of the vote in 2008 to 28% in 2011, and now to a
further decrease likely to leave them 21%, we now see
the Conservatives likely going down on a similar path,
from having 44 in 2011 to showing just 27.5% according to the average of polls.
The shrinking of the two main parties, from 83% of the
vote in the last general election before the crisis, to just
under 50%, runs in parallel to the emergence of two
new parties: Ciudadanos, on the centre-right, headed
by Albert Rivera, with polls giving them 20% of the
vote, and Podemos, left of the Socialistas, headed by
Pablo Iglesias, getting as much as 16%.
2. If the economy is growing, why the
government is doing bad?
The economy is doing well on the aggregate, with
exports picking up and firms deleveraging, but the
effects of the economic recovery are not trickling down
to those who’ve have been hardest hit by the crisis.
Sentiment is very negative with 2/3 of the Spaniards
thinking that both the economic and political situation
is bad or very bad and it is not likely to improve in the
next year.
3. Who’s likely to govern?
Seats projections based on these numbers indicate
that, even if they will still be the most voted party, the
Conservatives will lose their current majority and will
be unable to form government on their own (absolute
majority is placed at 176 seats in a Parliament of 350
seats, with the PP currently having 186).
From there, the most likely alternative majority is one
adding PP and Ciudadanos, but Rivera has openly said
that he will not support a PP government headed by
Rajoy because of the party’s bad corruption and economic management record.
Another possible coalition is one including the Socialists, likely to finish second, with Ciudadanos. However, here too, Rivera has said he will not enter into
coalition with the Socialists, whom he sees as a party
of the past.
As for the other possible coalition, one including the
Socialists and Podemos, this is the least likely for two
reasons: first, the numbers may just not add up to that;
second, Pablo Iglesias says he will not support the So-
cialists if he gets lets votes than them, i.e. the would
only accept a coalition if Podemos was first.
4. Should we worry about political instability after the elections?
Albert Rivera and Ciudadanos are going to be the
King makers. They can support the Conservatives or
the Socialists and therefore open the way for a stable
government. However, Rivera has said he does not
want to end like the Liberals in the UK, being heavily penalized by voters after promising change but
supporting the statu quo. Rivera’s calculations will
be key: if he thinks that by not throwing a life line
to Rajoy he can provoke his resignation and a crisis
within the PP, he may be tempted to sit and wait for
a next elections annihilating the Conservatives and
turn his party into the new big party of the Spanish
centre-right. The same goes for Podemos, which may
also be tempted, much as it happened in Greece with
Syriza and the PASOK, to provoke tensions within the
Socialists and finish them off at a later stage.
So, stability much depends on how parties, especially the new ones, read the results, and whether they
think they can do better off by not cooperating with
the old ones.
5. Podemos was very strong in January,
why has Podemos decreased in support?
Podemos has been very effective in representing
discontent with the old parties, complains about
political corruption, the rise of inequalities, austerity
cuts in the health and education system and the steep
increase in unemployment, especially among the
young people. But they’ve happened to be better at
pointing what was wrong than at proposing solutions,
the latter aspect at which they are often considered
too radical or just unfeasible by many voters. Also,
because of the appearance of Ciudadanos, Podemos
has been losing support in the centre, where the bulk
of the unsatisfied voters was.
6. What makes Ciudadanos so popular?
Ciudadanos is a party that is quite effective on
different fronts and different people. It addresses the
concerns of the most anti-nationalist voters in Catalonia as well as those unhappy with corruption and
traditional politics. It’s also a party which appeals
to young voters and urban middle classes. And its
economic proposals are pragmatic and centred.
Contrary to Podemos, represents change but does
not scare voters who may worry about the radicalism of Podemos.