What will Happen in the Future of Human Society

What will Happen
in the Future of Human Society ?
Hiroshi Tasaka
Professor at Tama University
President of Think Tank SophiaBank
First Question
Can We Predict
the Future ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
1
The Answer is
No
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
2
Because
“A small fluctuation
will change
drastically the future of
the evolution of a system.”
Ilya Prigogine
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
3
In Other Words
Butterfly Effect
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
4
Chaos Theory
A small butterfly
in Beijing
would cause
a huge hurricane
in New York.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
5
So
We
Cannot
Predict the Future.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
6
But
We
Can
Foresee the Future.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
7
In Other Words
We
Cannot
Predict Events.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
8
We
Can
Foresee Trends
and
Paradigm Changes.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
9
In What Way ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
10
By
Philosophy
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
11
Dialectic
Philosophy
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
12
by
Georg Hegel
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
13
by
Existentialism
of
Jean Paul Sartre
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
14
by
Zen Buddhism
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
15
by
Taoism
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
16
What is Dialectic ?
Five Laws
of
Dialectic
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
17
Law of Spiral Up Process
Law of Mutual Infiltration Process
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
18
Law of Double Denial Process
Law of Quantity to Quality Process
Law of Sublation of Contradiction
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
19
What is
the Most Important
Law
to Foresee the Future ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
20
Law of
Spiral Up Process
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
21
What is
the Law of Spiral Up Process ?
Development of the World
is like
Climbing Up
A Spiral Staircase.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
22
Another Expression
“Old Thing”
Once Disappeared
will Revive
with “New Value”
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
23
Where are Examples ?
Many Examples
in
The Internet Revolution
and
The Web2.0 Revolution
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
24
Example
Auction
and
Reverse Auction
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
25
What is “New Value” ?
In the Past
For Hundreds of People
At Present
For Millions of People
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
26
Another Example
E mail
Revival of “Letter”
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
27
Another Example
E Learning
Revival of “Tutorial System”
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
28
What is
the Second Important
Law
to Foresee the Future ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
29
Law of
Mutual Infiltration Process
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
30
What is the Law of
Mutual Infiltration Process ?
Two Opposite Principles
in Competition
will Fuse into
A New Principle.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
31
Where are Examples ?
Policy of
Labour
and
Conservative
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
32
Another Example
Principle of
Socialism
and
Capitalism
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
33
Example of the Internet
Role of
Producer
and
Consumer
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
34
Example of the Internet
“Pro-sumer Development”
on the Web
by
Alvin Toffler
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
35
Important Question
Why Dialectic
Now ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
36
Dialectic Law
has been
Happening
in the Past History.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
37
Because of
Dog Year (7times faster)
Mouse Year (18times faster)
Acceleration of
Change
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
38
In the Past
We could
Climb Up
A Spiral Staircase
Just for a Few Steps
in Our Lifetime.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
39
But Now
We are
Running Up
A Spiral Staircase.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
40
In the Past
Spiral Up Process
was An Interest
only for
Historian.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
41
But Now
Spiral Up Process
is An Interest
even for
Businessperson.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
42
Then
What Paradigm Changes
can be foreseen
by
Dialectic ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
43
Eight
Paradigm Changes
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
44
First
Paradigm Change
What will Happen to
Economy ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
45
Paradigm Change
Monetary Economy
to
Voluntary Economy
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
46
Spiral Up Process
of Economy
Old Voluntary Economy
will Revive
with “New Value”.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
47
What is
Voluntary Economy ?
An Economy
driven by
the Motivation of People
to “Satisfy Mind”
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
48
What is
Monetary Economy ?
An Economy
driven by
the Motivation of People
to “Acquire Money”
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
49
Example of the Internet Revolution
Linux Project
by
Linus Torvalds
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
50
Example of the Web2.0 Revolution
Customer Generate Contents
Knowledge of Q&A Community
Grassroots Critics of Amazon
Grassroots Movies of You Tube
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
51
What is “New Value” ?
Local Community
to
Global Community
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
52
What is “New Value” ?
Invisible Economy
to
Visible Economy
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
53
What will Happen
after
the Revival of
Voluntary Economy ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
54
Mutual Infiltration
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
55
In Other Words
Merger of
Monetary Economy
and
Voluntary Economy
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
56
Example
Google, Amazon, You Tube
Fusion of
Profitable Business Model
and
Consumer Generated Contents
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
57
What will Happen Next ?
Emergence of
New Economic Principle
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
58
Second
Paradigm Change
What will Happen to
Innovation ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
59
Paradigm Change
Beneficiary Innovation
to
Participatory Innovation
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
60
What is
Beneficiary Innovation ?
Innovation
Promoted by
Governments and Large Companies
for
Grassroots Consumers
as Beneficiary
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
61
What is
Participatory Innovation ?
Innovation
Promoted by
the Participation of
Grassroots Consumer
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
62
Example
Innovation of
Social Systems
by
Open Source Policy Making
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
63
Examples
Innovation of
Products and Services
by
Pro-sumer Development
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
64
Why does
the Paradigm Change Happen ?
Revival of
the Way of Innovation
in
Primitive Community
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
65
Third
Paradigm Change
What will Happen to
Democracy ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
66
Paradigm Change
Indirect Democracy
to
Neo Direct Democracy
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
67
What is
Neo Direct Democracy
“Direct Democracy”
in True Meaning
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
68
What is Democracy ?
Democracy
is not only
the Problem of
“Participation to Decision Making”
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
69
What is Democracy ?
Democracy
is but also
the Problem of
“Participation to Innovative Action”
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
70
What is Democracy ?
Democracy
is not only
the Problem of
“Politics”
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
71
What is Democracy ?
Democracy
is but also
the Problem of
“Economy” and “Culture”
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
72
Until Now
Economy and Culture
have been
Indirect Democracy.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
73
Until Now
Companies
have been
Representatives of Consumers
by using
Market Research.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
74
From Now
Consumers
will be able to
Design, Produce and Use
what they want.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
75
In Other Words
What you Desire
is
What you Get.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
76
Spiral Up Process
of
Democracy
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
77
Fourth
Paradigm Change
What will Happen to
Organization ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
78
Paradigm Change
Profit Organization v.s. NPO
to
Social Enterprise
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
79
What will Happen to
Organization ?
Mutual Infiltration
of
Profit Organization
and
Non-profit Organization
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
80
Example
Corporate Social Responsibility
(CSR)
Movement from
Profit Organization to
Non-profit Organization
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
81
Example
Social Entrepreneur
Movement from
Non -profit Organization to
Profit Organization
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
82
What will Happen
after Infiltration ?
Social Enterprise
To Contribute to Society
through Main Business
To Create a Cash Flow
for Sustainable Contribution
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
83
Fifth
Paradigm Change
What will Happen to
Talent ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
84
Paradigm Change
Single Talent Professional
to
Multi Talent Professional
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
85
What will Happen to
Talent ?
Web2.0 Revolution
will make
People
Rather Easy
to become
A Professional.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
86
What will Happen to
Society ?
“Da Vinci Society”
Multi Talents Flowers in People
like
Leonard Da Vinci
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
87
Example
Sales Manager in a Company
Member of Pro-sumer Community
Social Entrepreneur for Ecology
Music Composer on the Web
Series of Essay on the Blog
Short Movies to You Tube
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
88
Sixth
Paradigm Change
What will Happen to
Personality ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
89
Paradigm Change
Single Personality Life
to
Multi Personality Life
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
90
What will Happen to
Personality ?
Web2.0 Revolution
will Enable
People
to Express Themselves
in Many Ways.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
91
Why is
Expressing Oneself
so Important ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
92
Expressing Oneself
is
A Healing
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
93
Why is that a Healing ?
We
Always Choose
a “Persona”
to Adopt Oneself
to the Circumstances
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
94
There are
Many Personalities
Deep Inside
of Us
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
95
But
We Always
Repress Most of Them
to Avoid
Confusion in Daily Life.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
96
How Can We
Express
Hidden Oneself ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
97
Three Ways
Anonymous Message
Playing a Person in Drama
Non Language Expression
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
98
What is
the Meaning of
Web2.0 Revolution
in this Context ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
99
Seventh
Paradigm Change
What will Happen to
World View ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
100
Paradigm Change
Mechanical System Paradigm
to
Living System Paradigm
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
101
What is
Mechanical System
Paradigm ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
102
A tendency to think
that
the world is like
a huge mechanical system
and
we can design and manipulate it freely.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
103
Examples
Typical Wording
Re-engineering of Company
Re-structuring of System
Blue Print of Society
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
104
What is
Living System
Paradigm ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
105
The way of thinking
that
the world is like
a great living system
which
we cannot design and manipulate
intentionally.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
106
Why
does this
Paradigm Change
Happen ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
107
Because of
Internet Revolution
and
Web2.0 Revolution?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
108
The Revolutions
make
Corporations, Markets
and Society
more
“Inter-related”.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
109
Then
Systems of
Corporations, Markets
and Society
will evolve into
“Complex Systems”.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
110
What is
Complex System ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
111
A System
Characterized by
Coherence, Self Organization
Emergence, Co-evolution
Ecosystem
Butterfly Effect etc.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
112
What is
the Essence of
Complex System ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
113
Living System
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
114
The Insight of
Gregory Bateson
Complex System
Seems to behave
as a
“Living System”.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
115
Internet Revolution
and
Web2.0 Revolution
will naturally
Require Us
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
116
to Change
the Paradigm
from
Mechanical System Paradigm
to
Living System Paradigm
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
117
Because
Corporations, Markets
and
Society
will Become
Living Systems.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
118
And Because
There will be Created
A Huge
Ecosystem of Minds.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
119
Example
Key Words
In Web2.0 Revolution
Wisdom of Crowds
Collective Intelligence
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
120
What is Next ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
121
Collective Intelligence
to
Collective Consciousness
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
122
Collective Consciousness
to
Collective Sub-consciousness
(Carl Gustav Jung)
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
123
The Insight of
Gregory Bateson
Ecology of Mind
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
124
Why is
Living System Paradigm
So Important
Now ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
125
All of Global Problems
including Global Warming
are
the Problems
of Complex Systems.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
126
Eighth
Paradigm Change
What will Happen to
Civilization ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
127
Important Question
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
128
How to Cope with
the Complex Systems
as
“Living Systems”
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
129
Seven Problems of
Complex Systems
Impossibility of Analysis
Impossibility of Prediction
Impossibility of Division
Impossibility of Control
Sensitivity to Small Information
Sensitivity to Fluctuation
Frequent Change of Law
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
130
Seven Pillars of Wisdom for
Complex Systems
Not to Analyze, But to Use Intuition and Insight.
Not to Predict the Future, But to Create it.
Not to Divide, But to Treat as a Whole.
Not to Control, But to Promote Emergence.
Not only Share Information, But also Create Coherence.
Not to Use Large Power, But to Use Butterfly Effect.
Not to Learn Law, But to Change Law.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
131
Where is
the Wisdom
to Cope with
Complex systems
as
Living System ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
132
In Old Community
and
in Old Society
of Each Country
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
133
Spiral Up Process
of
Civilization
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
134
Revival of
Old Value System
and
Old Civilization
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
135
Then
What is the
Mutual Filtration Process
of
Civilization ?
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
136
Eastern Civilization
and
Western Civilization
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
137
The History of Humankind
is
Climbing Up
A Spiral Staircase.
Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka
138