Validaciyn de una regla de predicciyn cltnica para diferenciar

$UWtFXORRULJLQDO
$UFK$UJHQW3HGLDWU
9DOLGDFLyQGHXQDUHJODGHSUHGLFFLyQ
FOtQLFDSDUDGLIHUHQFLDUPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQD
GHPHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFD
9DOLGDWLRQRIDFOLQLFDOSUHGLFWLRQUXOHWRGLVWLQJXLVK
EDFWHULDOIURPDVHSWLFPHQLQJLWLV
'U*RQ]DOR$JHURD'UD0DUtD&'DYHQSRUWD'UD0DUtDGHOD3'HO9DOOHD
'UD3DXOLQD*DOOHJRVD'UD$QD/.DQQHPDQQD'UD9LYLDQ%RNVHUE\
'U)HUQDQGR)HUUHURD
D 'RFHQFLDH
,QYHVWLJDFLyQ
E 'LYLVLyQGH
3URPRFLyQ\
3URWHFFLyQGHOD
6DOXG
+RVSLWDO*HQHUDO
GH1LxRV´3HGURGH
(OL]DOGHµ
&RQIOLFWRGHLQWHUHVHV
1DGDTXHGHFODUDU
&RUUHVSRQGHQFLD
'UD0DUtD&DUROLQD
'DYHQSRUW
FDUROLQDGDYHQSRUW#
\DKRRFRPDU
5HFLELGR
$FHSWDGR
5(680(1
,QWURGXFFLyQ/DPD\RUtDGHODVPHQLQJLWLVHQ
ODLQIDQFLDQRVRQEDFWHULDQDVSHURODGLÀFXOWDG
HQGHVFDUWDUWDOHWLRORJtDREOLJDFRQIUHFXHQFLD
D XWLOL]DU DQWLELyWLFRV LQLFLDOPHQWH (O REMHWLYR
GH HVWH WUDEDMR IXH YDOLGDU HQ QXHVWUR PHGLR
XQDUHJODGHSUHGLFFLyQFOtQLFDSDUDGLIHUHQFLDU
ODHWLRORJtDGHODVPHQLQJLWLVHQQLxRVDVXLQ
JUHVRDOKRVSLWDO
0pWRGR(VWXGLRSURVSHFWLYRTXHLQFOX\ySDFLHQ
WHVDxRVGHHGDGFRQGLDJQyVWLFRGHPHQLQ
JLWLV(QWRGRVVHREWXYROtTXLGRFHIDORUUDTXtGHR
/&5SDUDDQiOLVLVGLUHFWRFLWRTXtPLFR\FXOWL
YR \ KHPRJUDPD 6H FDOFXOy HO %06 %DFWHULDO
0HQLQJLWLV6FRUHSXQWDMHGHPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULD
QDGHVFULSWRSRU1LJURYLF3HGLDWULFV
WLQFLyQGH*UDPHQ/&5SRVLWLYD SXQWRV
SURWHLQRUUDTXLD•PJGOQHXWUyÀORVHQVDQ
JUHSHULIpULFD•PPQHXWUyÀORVHQ/&5
•PPFRQYXOVLRQHVSXQWRFDGDXQR6H
FDOFXOyVHQVLELOLGDG6HVSHFLÀFLGDG(YDOR
UHVSUHGLFWLYRVSRVLWLYR\QHJDWLYR933\931
\UD]RQHVGHYHURVLPLOLWXGSRVLWLYD\QHJDWLYD
593\591GHO%06SDUDSUHGHFLUPHQLQJL
WLVEDFWHULDQD
5HVXOWDGRV6HLQFOX\HURQSDFLHQWHVFRQPH
QLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDV9HLQWLFLQFRSDFLHQWHV
SUHVHQWDURQ%06 SXQWRV%06 SXQWR
\%06•SXQWRV8Q%06 HYLGHQFLy6
(933931593
591 SDUD SUHGHFLU PHQLQJLWLV EDFWHULDQD
8Q%06•PRVWUy6(933
931593591SDUDSUHGHFLUPH
QLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQD
&RQFOXVLyQ/DXWLOL]DFLyQGHO%06IXHVLPSOH\
SHUPLWLyLGHQWLÀFDUSDFLHQWHVFRQEDMRULHVJRGH
PHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQD6XHPSOHRSRGUtDFRQV
WLWXLUXQDKHUUDPLHQWD~WLOHQODWRPDGHGHFL
VLRQHVFOtQLFDV
3DODEUDVFODYHPHQLQJLWLVYDORUSUHGLFWLYRGHODV
SUXHEDVOtTXLGRFHIDORUUDTXtGHR
6800$5<
,QWURGXFWLRQ'HVSLWHPRVWPHQLQJLWLVDUHQRW
EDFWHULDODQWLELRWLFVDUHXVXDOO\DGPLQLVWHUHG
RQ DGPLVVLRQ EHFDXVH EDFWHULDO PHQLQJLWLV LV
GLIÀFXOW WR EH UXOHRXW 'LVWLQJXLVKLQJ EDF
WHULDO IURP DVHSWLF PHQLQJLWLV RQ DGPLVVLRQ
FRXOGDYRLGLQDSSURSULDWHDQWLELRWLFXVHDQG
KRVSLWDOL]DWLRQ:HDLPHGWRYDOLGDWHDFOLQL
FDOSUHGLFWLRQUXOHWRGLVWLQJXLVKEDFWHULDOIURP
DVHSWLFPHQLQJLWLVLQFKLOGUHQRQDUULYLQJWRWKH
HPHUJHQF\URRP
0HWKRGV7KLVSURVSHFWLYHVWXG\LQFOXGHGSD
WLHQWVDJHG\HDUVZLWKPHQLQJLWLV&HUHEURV
SLQDOÁXLG&6)DQGSHULSKHUDOEORRGQHXWURSKLO
FRXQWZHUHREWDLQHGIURPDOOSDWLHQWV7KH%06
%DFWHULDO0HQLQJLWLV6FRUHGHVFULEHGE\1LJUR
YLF 3HGLDWULFV ZDV FDOFXODWHG
SRVLWLYH &6) *UDP VWDLQ SRLQWV &6) DEVR
OXWH QHXWURSKLO FRXQW • FHOOVPP &6)
SURWHLQ•PJGOSHULSKHUDOEORRGDEVROXWH
QHXWURSKLOFRXQW•PPVHL]XUH SR
LQWHDFK6HQVLWLYLW\6VSHFLÀFLW\(SRVLWLYH
DQGQHJDWLYHSUHGLFWLYHYDOXHV339DQG139
SRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHOLNHOLKRRGUDWLRV3/5DQG
1/5RIWKH%06WRSUHGLFWEDFWHULDOPHQLQJLWLV
ZHUHFDOFXODWHG
5HVXOWV6HYHQW\SDWLHQWVZLWKPHQLQJLWLVZHUH
LQFOXGHGEDFWHULDOPHQLQJLWLV:KHQ%06
ZDV FDOFXODWHG SDWLHQWV VKRZHG D %06 SRLQWV %06 SRLQW DQG %06 • SR
LQWV$%06 VKRZHG6(933
931593591$%06•
SUHGLFWHGEDFWHULDOPHQLQJLWLVZLWK6(
9339313/51/5
&RQFOXVLRQV 8VLQJ %06 ZDV VLPSOH DQG
DOORZHGLGHQWLI\LQJFKLOGUHQZLWKYHU\ORZULVN
RIEDFWHULDOPHQLQJLWLV,WFRXOGEHDXVHIXOWRRO
WRDVVLVWFOLQLFDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ
.H\ ZRUGV PHQLQJLWLV SUHGLFWLYH YDOXH RI WHVWV
FHUHEURVSLQDOIOXLG
,1752'8&&,Ð1
/DPHQLQJLWLVHVXQDHQIHUPHGDG
GHGLVWULEXFLyQXQLYHUVDOTXHDIHFWD
HVSHFLDOPHQWHDQLxRV/DPHQLQJL
WLVGHHWLRORJtDYLUDODVpSWLFDHVPiV
IUHFXHQWHQRUHTXLHUHWUDWDPLHQWR
DQWLELyWLFR\KDELWXDOPHQWHWLHQHXQ
GHVDUUROOREHQLJQR3RUHOFRQWUDULR
ODPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDDSHVDUGHO
GLDJQyVWLFRSUHFR]\GHOWUDWDPLHQWR
DQWLELyWLFRDGHFXDGRSXHGHDVRFLDU
VHDXQDHOHYDGDWDVDGHFRPSOLFDFLR
QHVQHXUROyJLFDV\DXQFRQVLGHUDEOH
ULHVJRGHPRUELOLGDGDODUJRSOD]R
9DOLGDFLyQGHXQDUHJODGHSUHGLFFLyQFOtQLFDSDUDGLIHUHQFLDUPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDGHPHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFD
'LIHUHQFLDUODPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDGHODPH
QLQJLWLVDVpSWLFDHVGLItFLOLQLFLDOPHQWH(VSRUHV
WRTXHDSHVDUGHODPD\RULQFLGHQFLDREVHUYDGD
GHPHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFDTXLHQHVSUHVHQWDQSOHRFL
WRVLVHQHOOtTXLGRFHIDORUUDTXtGHR/&5VRQIUH
FXHQWHPHQWHLQWHUQDGRVSDUDUHFLELUWUDWDPLHQWR
FRQDQWLELyWLFRVGHDPSOLRHVSHFWURDODHVSHUDGHO
UHVXOWDGRGHORVFXOWLYRV
/DGLIHUHQFLDFLyQHQWUHGLFKRVWLSRVGHPHQLQ
JLWLVHQODVDODGHJXDUGLDSRGUtDVHU~WLOSDUDGLV
PLQXLUHOXVRLQQHFHVDULRGHDQWLELyWLFRVOLPLWDU
ODHVWDGtDKRVSLWDODULD\ORVULHVJRVTXHHVWRLP
SOLFDSDUDHOSDFLHQWH3HURFRPRHOUHWUDVRHQHO
GLDJQyVWLFR\FRQVHFXHQWHWUDWDPLHQWRGHODPH
QLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDVHDVRFLDDPD\RUPRUELPRU
WDOLGDGXQPpWRGRTXHSUHWHQGDGLIHUHQFLDUODGH
ODPHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFDGHEHUiFRQWDUFRQXQDVHQ
VLELOLGDGGHOSDUDGHWHFWDUOD
6HKDQHIHFWXDGRGLYHUVRVLQWHQWRVSDUDGLIH
UHQFLDUODPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDGHODDVpSWLFDDQWHV
GHFRQRFHUORVUHVXOWDGRVGHORVFXOWLYRVGH/&5\
VDQJUHXWLOL]DQGRSDUDHOORSDUiPHWURVFOtQLFRV\
GHODERUDWRULR$OJXQRVGHHVWRVPpWRGRVFRPR
HOYDOLGDGRSRU-DHJHU\FRORHOSURSXHVWRSRU
%RQVX\FROUHTXLHUHQFiOFXORVFRPSOHMRV\UHVXO
WDQGLItFLOHVGHUHDOL]DUFRQORVGDWRVGLVSRQLEOHV
FXDQGRHOSDFLHQWHFRQVXOWDHQODJXDUGLD
(QHODxR1LJURYLF\FROSURSXVLHURQ
XQDHVFDODGHSXQWDMHVLPSOHGHLPSOHPHQWDUSD
UDGLIHUHQFLDUODPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDGHODDVpS
WLFDPHGLDQWHYDULDEOHVGHSUHGLFFLyQREMHWLYDV
IiFLOPHQWHPHQVXUDEOHVGLVSRQLEOHVDOLQJUHVRGHO
SDFLHQWH\TXHKDEtDQPRVWUDGRVXDVRFLDFLyQFRQ
ODPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDHQWUDEDMRVSUHYLRV
1LJURYLFFRQVWUX\yVXHVFDODGHSXQWDMHPH
GLDQWHODPHWRGRORJtDPiVDGHFXDGDSDUDHOOR
(VWiFRQVWLWXLGDSRUODVVLJXLHQWHVYDULDEOHV
WLQFLyQGH*UDPHQ/&5SRVLWLYDSURWHLQRUUD
TXLD•PJGOQHXWUyILORVHQVDQJUHSHULIpULFD
•PPQHXWUyILORVHQ/&5•PP\
FRQYXOVLRQHV(QHOWUDEDMRRULJLQDOHVWDSUXHED
TXHIXHGHQRPLQDGD%06%DFWHULDO0HQLQJLWLV
6FRUH3XQWDMHGH0HQLQJLWLV%DFWHULDQDPRVWUy
XQDVHQVLELOLGDGGHSDUDLGHQWLILFDUPHQLQ
JLWLVEDFWHULDQD3RVWHULRUHVHVWXGLRVUHDILUPDURQ
ODFDSDFLGDGGLDJQyVWLFDGHHVWDUHJODGHSUHGLF
FLyQFOtQLFD
(VLQQHJDEOHODLPSRUWDQFLDTXHSRGUtDWHQHU
HQODSUiFWLFDGLDULDFRQWDUFRQXQDKHUUDPLHQ
WDTXHSHUPLWDGLIHUHQFLDUFRQFHUWH]DHQHOPR
PHQWRGHODDGPLVLyQODPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDGH
ODPHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFD6LQHPEDUJRORVHVWXGLRV
VREUHHO%06VHOOHYDURQDFDERHQHOKHPLVIHULR
QRUWHGRQGHODYDFXQDFLyQFRQWUDQHXPRFRFRHV
IUHFXHQWHSRUORTXHUHVXOWDLPSRUWDQWHYDOLGDUVX
GHVHPSHxRHQXQHVFHQDULRGRQGHGLFKDYDFXQD
FLyQHVSUiFWLFDPHQWHLQH[LVWHQWH
(OREMHWLYRGHOSUHVHQWHWUDEDMRIXHYDOLGDU
SURVSHFWLYDPHQWHXQDUHJODGHSUHGLFFLyQFOtQLFD
%06SDUDGLIHUHQFLDUODPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDGH
ODDVpSWLFDHQQLxRVFRQPHQLQJLWLVDVLVWLGRVHQXQ
KRVSLWDOSHGLiWULFRGHOD&LXGDGGH%XHQRV$LUHV
32%/$&,Ð10$7(5,$/<0e72'26
6HUHDOL]yXQHVWXGLRSURVSHFWLYRTXHLQFOX\y
WRGRVORVSDFLHQWHVGHPHVDDxRVGHHGDG
FRQGLDJQyVWLFRGHPHQLQJLWLVDGPLWLGRVHQHO
+RVSLWDO*HQHUDOGH1LxRV´3HGURGH(OL]DOGHµ
HQWUHHOGHVHSWLHPEUHGH\HOGHRFWXEUH
GH6HGHFLGLyLQFRUSRUDUORVSDFLHQWHVTXH
FRQVXOWDUDQSRUPHQLQJLWLVGXUDQWHDOPHQRVXQ
DxRSDUDHYLWDUSRVLEOHVVHVJRVSRUFLUFXODFLyQHV
WDFLRQDOGHDOJ~QPLFURRUJDQLVPR
(QWRGRVVHREWXYROtTXLGRFHIDORUUDTXtGHR
/&5SDUDDQiOLVLVGLUHFWRFLWRTXtPLFR\FXOWL
YR\KHPRJUDPD
6HGHILQLyFRPRPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDDOD
SUHVHQFLDGHDOPHQRVXQRGHORVVLJXLHQWHVFUL
WHULRVFXOWLYRGH/&5SRVLWLYRSDUDJHUPHQ
EDFWHULDQRRSOHRFLWRVLV!OHXFRFLWRVHQ/&5
FRQXQKHPRFXOWLYRSRVLWLYRRSUXHEDGHOOiWH[HQ
/&5SRVLWLYD
6HGHILQLyFRPRPHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFDDODSUH
VHQFLDGHSOHRFLWRVLVHQ/&5!OHXFRFLWRVFRQ
FXOWLYRVEDFWHULDQRVQHJDWLYRVRSUXHEDGHOOiWH[
HQ/&5QHJDWLYRVLVHORKXELHUDUHDOL]DGR
6HH[FOX\HURQSDFLHQWHVFRQDQWHFHGHQWHV
QHXURTXLU~UJLFRVUHFLHQWHVFRQVLJQRVFOtQLFRV
GHVHSVLVRS~USXUDIXOPLQDQWHFRPRIRUPDGH
SUHVHQWDFLyQFOtQLFDLQPXQRVXSULPLGRVSDFLHQ
WHVFRQDOJ~QRWURIRFRFOtQLFRGHLQIHFFLyQTXH
UHTXLULHVHWUDWDPLHQWRDQWLELyWLFRHQGRYHQRVRDO
PRPHQWRGHOLQJUHVRTXHKXELHUDQUHFLELGRDQ
WLELyWLFRVGHQWURGHODVKSUHYLDVDODUHDOL]D
FLyQGHODSXQFLyQOXPEDU\DTXHOORVFRQGDWRV
LQFRPSOHWRVWHQLHQGRHQFXHQWDTXHHVWRVIXHURQ
ORVFULWHULRVGHH[FOXVLyQXWLOL]DGRVSRU1LJURYLF
(QWRGRVORVSDFLHQWHVLQFOXLGRVVHFDOFXOyHO
%06VHJ~QODGHVFULSFLyQRULJLQDOWLQFLyQGH
*UDPHQ/&5SRVLWLYD SXQWRVSURWHLQRUUD
TXLD•PJGOQHXWUyILORVHQVDQJUHSHULIpULFD
•PPQHXWUyILORVHQ/&5•PP
FRQYXOVLRQHVSXQWRFDGDXQR7DEOD(OLQ
WHUYDORGHODHVFDODGHSXQWDMHSXHGHYDULDUGH
DSXQWRV,QGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWHGHOUHVXOWDGR
REWHQLGRDOFDOFXODUHO%06WRGRVORVSDFLHQWHV
IXHURQWUDWDGRVGHDFXHUGRDODFRQGXFWDKDEL
WXDOGHOVHUYLFLR
$UFK$UJHQW3HGLDWU$UWtFXORRULJLQDO
$QiOLVLVHVWDGtVWLFRXQDYH]FDOFXODGRHO%06
HQFDGDSDFLHQWHVHSURFHGLyDGHWHUPLQDUVXVHQ
VLELOLGDGHVSHFLILFLGDGYDORUHVSUHGLFWLYRV\UD
]RQHVGHYHURVLPLOLWXGSDUDSUHGHFLUPHQLQJLWLV
EDFWHULDQD'LFKRVYDORUHVVHFDOFXODURQDVXPLHQ
GRGRVSXQWRVGHFRUWHGHODUHJODGHSUHGLFFLyQ
\SXQWRV/DPXHVWUDUHFROHFWDGDSDFLHQ
WHVSHUPLWHHYLGHQFLDUXQYDORUGHVHQVLELOLGDG
GHLJXDODODOFDQ]DGRHQODGHVFULSFLyQRUL
JLQDO/RVGDWRVVHDQDOL]DURQPHGLDQWHHOSUR
JUDPDHVWDGtVWLFR63666366,QF&KLFDJR
((88
&RQVLGHUDFLRQHVpWLFDVVHREWXYRODDXWRUL]D
FLyQGHORV&RPLWpVGH%LRpWLFD\GH'RFHQFLDH
,QYHVWLJDFLyQGHO+RVSLWDO3UR\HFWR&,6
*&%$6HVROLFLWy\REWXYRHOFRQVHQWLPLHQWRLQ
IRUPDGRGHORVSDGUHVGHORVSDFLHQWHV
5(68/7$'26
(QHOSHUtRGRHVWXGLDGRVHLGHQWLILFDURQSD
FLHQWHVFRQGLDJQyVWLFRGHPHQLQJLWLV6HH[FOX\H
URQSDFLHQWHVSXQFLyQOXPEDUWUDXPiWLFD
7$%/$(VFDODGHSXQWDMHSDUDGLIHUHQFLDUPHQLQJLWLV
EDFWHULDQDGHPHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFD%DFWHULDO0HQLQJLWLV
6FRUH²%06
9DULDEOHV
3UHVHQWH
$XVHQWH
7LQFLyQGH*UDPSRVLWLYD
3URWHLQRUUDTXLD•PJGO
1HXWUyÀORVHQVDQJUHSHULIpULFD
•PP
&RQYXOVLRQHVDQWHVRGXUDQWHOD
SUHVHQWDFLyQFOtQLFD
1HXWUyÀORVHQ/&5!PP
5DQJRGHODHVFDODDSXQWRV
/&5/tTXLGRFHIDORUUDTXtGHR
VKRFNVpSWLFRDOLQJUHVRDVRFLDGRDLQIHFFLyQ
XULQDULDSRUIDOWDGHGDWRVSDUDFDOFXODUODHV
FDODGHSXQWDMH\SRUDQWLELRWLFRWHUDSLDSUHYLD
/DHGDGPHGLDGHORVSDFLHQWHVLQFOXLGRVIXH
GH“DxRV\HOIXHURQGHVH[RPDVFX
OLQR7DEOD6HUHDOL]yFXOWLYRGH/&5\UHDFFLyQ
HQFDGHQDGHODSROLPHUDVD3&5SRUVXVLJODHQ
LQJOpVSDUDHQWHURYLUXVHQODWRWDOLGDGGHORVSD
FLHQWHV'HORVSDFLHQWHVTXHFXPSOLHURQFRQ
ORVFULWHULRVGHLQFOXVLyQSUHVHQWDURQ
PHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFD\PHQLQJLWLVEDFWH
ULDQD(QWUHHVWRV~OWLPRVHQVHLGHQWLILFy1HLV
VHULDPHQLQJLWLGLVHQ6WUHSWRFRFFXVSQHXPRQLDH
HQ+DHPRSKLOXVLQIOXHQ]DHGHWLSRE\HQ/LVWH
ULDPRQRF\WRJHQHV(OSDWyJHQREDFWHULDQRVHDLVOy
VLPXOWiQHDPHQWHHQKHPRFXOWLYRV\/&5HQGH
ORVSDFLHQWHV\VRODPHQWHHQHOFXOWLYRGH/&5HQ
1LQJ~QSDFLHQWHFRQPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDSUH
VHQWyHQIRUPDDLVODGDLGHQWLILFDFLyQGHOJHUPHQ
HQKHPRFXOWLYRVRSUXHEDGHOOiWH['HORVSDFLHQ
WHVFRQPHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFDSUHVHQWDURQ3&5
SRVLWLYDSDUDHQWHURYLUXV
3UHVHQWDURQWLQFLyQGH*UDPSRVLWLYDHQHO
/&5SDFLHQWHVGHORVFXDOHVFRUUHVSRQ
GLHURQDPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQD\DPHQLQJLWLV
DVpSWLFDHVWRV~OWLPRVGHVDUUROODURQSRVWHULRU
PHQWHHQHOFXOWLYRXQJHUPHQTXHVHLQWHUSUHWy
FRPRFRQWDPLQDQWH7RGRVORVSDFLHQWHVFRQPH
QLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDSUHVHQWDURQWLQFLyQGH*UDP
HQ/&5SRVLWLYD
(OGHORVSDFLHQWHVLQFOXLGRVSUHVHQWD
URQFRQYXOVLRQHVDOPRPHQWRGHOLQJUHVRDODVD
ODGHXUJHQFLDV
6yORXQSDFLHQWHFRQPHQLQJLWLVIDOOHFLyHQHO
SHUtRGRHVWXGLDGR\6WUHSWRFRFFXVSQHXPRQLDHIXH
HODJHQWHHWLROyJLFRLQYROXFUDGR
$OFDOFXODUHO%06HQORVSDFLHQWHVHVWXGLDGRV
FRQPHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFDVHREVHUYyTXHWHQtDQ
7$%/$&DUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHORVSDFLHQWHV
7LSRGHPHQLQJLWLVQ
%DFWHULDQD
$VpSWLFD
7RWDO
)HPHQLQR
0DVFXOLQR
(GDGHQDxRVPHGLD“'(
6H[R
“
“
7LQFLyQGH*UDPSRVLWLYD
3URWHLQRUUDTLD•PJGO
1HXWUyÀORVHQVDQJUHSHULIpULFD•PP
1HXWUyÀORVHQ/&5!PP
&RQYXOVLRQHV
)XHURQFRQVLGHUDGRVFRQWDPLQDQWHVDSRVWHULRUL
“
9DOLGDFLyQGHXQDUHJODGHSUHGLFFLyQFOtQLFDSDUDGLIHUHQFLDUPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDGHPHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFD
XQSXQWDMH”\•7RGRVORVSDFLHQWHVFRQPH
QLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDVWHQtDQXQSXQWDMH•7DEOD
$OHIHFWXDUODYDOLGDFLyQGHODUHJODGHSUHGLF
FLyQVHREVHUYyTXHPRVWUDEDGHVHQVLELOL
GDGSDUDSUHGHFLUPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDHQDPERV
SXQWRVGHFRUWHHOHJLGRV7DEOD
',6&86,Ð1
(VWiDPSOLDPHQWHDFHSWDGRTXHXQUiSLGR
GLDJQyVWLFR\WUDWDPLHQWRGHODPHQLQJLWLVHV
HVHQFLDO&RQHVWHREMHWLYRKDQVLGRSURSXHVWDV
GLIHUHQWHVUHJODVGHSUHGLFFLyQXWLOL]DQGRSDUi
PHWURVFOtQLFRV\GHODERUDWRULRSHURSRFDVKDQ
VLGRYDOLGDGDVDGHFXDGDPHQWH8QRGHORVSDVRV
SUHYLRVQHFHVDULRVDQWHVGHODDSOLFDFLyQPDVLYD
GHXQDUHJODGHSUHGLFFLyQFOtQLFDHVVXYDOLGDFLyQ
HQSREODFLRQHVFRQFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGLIHUHQWHVDODV
GHDTXHOODHQODFXDOIXHGHVDUUROODGD
/DLPSRUWDQFLDGHYDOLGDUHVWDVKHUUDPLHQWDV
HQGLIHUHQWHVSREODFLRQHVTXHGDGHPRVWUDGDHQ
WUHRWURVSXQWRVHQODSUHYDOHQFLDREVHUYDGDGH
ORVGLIHUHQWHVDJHQWHVUHVSRQVDEOHVGHPHQLQJL
WLVHQGLIHUHQWHVHVFHQDULRV'HEHUHFRUGDUVHTXH
QXHVWURWUDEDMRIXHUHDOL]DGRGHPDQHUDSURVSHF
7$%/$'LVWULEXFLyQGHORVFDVRVVHJ~QHOSXQWDMHGH
1LJURYLF%06\HWLRORJtD
7LSRGHPHQLQJLWLV
%06
$VpSWLFD
%DFWHULDQD
Q
Q
7RWDO
7$%/$&DSDFLGDGGLDJQyVWLFDGHO%06HQODSREODFLyQ
HVWXGLDGD
3XQWRGHFRUWHGHO%06
6HQVLELOLGDG
(VSHFLÀFLGDG
•
9DORUSUHGLFWLYRSRVLWLYR
9DORUSUHGLFWLYRQHJDWLYR
5D]yQGHYHURVLPLOLWXGSRVLWLYD
5D]yQGHYHURVLPLOLWXGQHJDWLYD
/RVYDORUHVHQWUHSDUpQWHVLVFRUUHVSRQGHQDORV,&
WLYDHQXQDSREODFLyQHQODFXDOQRH[LVWHDSOLFD
FLyQPDVLYDGHODYDFXQDDQWLQHXPRFyFLFDSXHV
GLFKDYDFXQDQRHVWiLQFOXLGDHQHO&DOHQGDULR
1DFLRQDOGH9DFXQDFLyQGHOD5HS~EOLFD$UJHQ
WLQD6LELHQODSUHYDOHQFLDGHPHQLQJLWLVEDFWH
ULDQDHQQXHVWURHVWXGLRIXHGHXQUHFLHQWH
HVWXGLRUHDOL]DGRHQ((88VLHWHDxRVOXHJRGHOD
LQWURGXFFLyQGHODYDFXQDDQWLQHXPRFRFRPRVWUy
TXHD~QFRQXQDSUHYDOHQFLDGHPHQLQJLWLVEDFWH
ULDQDGHOHO%06VHJXtDPRVWUDQGRXQDH[
FHOHQWHFDSDFLGDGGLDJQyVWLFD
&RQUHVSHFWRDODLGHQWLILFDFLyQGHJpUPHQHV
SRUPHGLRGHODWLQFLyQGH*UDPGHO/&5GLFKD
SUXHEDPRVWUyHQHVWXGLRVSUHYLRVVHQVLELOLGD
GHVGHOSDUDSUHGHFLUPHQLQJLWLVEDFWH
ULDQD1LJURYLF\FROHQFRQWUDURQXQDWLQFLyQ
GH*UDPSRVLWLYDHQGHODVPHQLQJLWLVEDF
WHULDQDV\HQGHODVDVpSWLFDV(VWRVGDWRV
GLILHUHQGHORVGHQXHVWURHVWXGLRHQHOFXDOSUH
VHQWDURQWLQFLyQGHO/&5GH*UDPSRVLWLYDWRGDV
ODVPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDV\GHODVDVpSWLFDV
(VWH~OWLPRGDWRSRGUtDH[SOLFDUVHSRUTXHQXHV
WURWUDEDMRIXHUHDOL]DGRGHPDQHUDSURVSHFWLYD
QRSXGLpQGRVHH[FOXLUODVWLQFLRQHVGH/&5*UDP
SRVLWLYDVTXHFRUUHVSRQGLHURQDJpUPHQHVFRQWD
PLQDQWHV\QRDYHUGDGHURVDJHQWHVSDWyJHQRV
WLQFLyQGH*UDP´IDOVRSRVLWLYRµFRPRHIHFWXDUD
1LJURYLF7DOYH]HVWRH[SOLTXHODPHQRUHVSHFLIL
FLGDGGHODSUXHEDHQQXHVWURHVWXGLR
/DXWLOL]DFLyQGHO%06QRVSHUPLWLyXQDUiSL
GD\DGHFXDGDGLVFULPLQDFLyQHQWUHSDFLHQWHVFRQ
DOWR\FRQPX\EDMRULHVJRGHGHVDUUROODUPHQLQ
JLWLVEDFWHULDQD8QYDORUPD\RURLJXDODHQOD
HVFDODGHSXQWDMHVHDVRFLyVLJQLILFDWLYDPHQWHFRQ
PHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDGHIRUPDDQiORJDDORVUH
VXOWDGRVREWHQLGRVHQHVWXGLRVUHWURVSHFWLYRV
8QYDORUPHQRUDQRVHDVRFLyFRQPHQLQJLWLV
EDFWHULDQDSRUORTXHHQHVWHJUXSRSXGRKDEHU
VHHYLWDGRODXWLOL]DFLyQGHDQWLELyWLFRVGHDPSOLR
HVSHFWURHLQFOXVRSRGUtDKDEHUVHFRQVLGHUDGRHO
FRQWURODPEXODWRULRHQDTXHOORVFRQXQFRQWH[WR
FOtQLFRIDYRUDEOH$SHVDUGHTXHHQQXHVWURHVWX
GLRWRGRVORVSDFLHQWHVFRQ%06 SUHVHQWDEDQ
PHQLQJLWLVDVpSWLFDODGHVFULSFLyQRULJLQDOGHOD
UHJODGHSUHGLFFLyQDFRQVHMDLQWHUQDFLyQ\WUDWD
PLHQWRDQWLELyWLFRGHHVRVFDVRVSXHVHQGLFKR
WUDEDMRGHHVWRVSDFLHQWHVSUHVHQWDEDQPH
QLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQD0iVD~QHQQXHVWUDSREOD
FLyQQLQJ~QSDFLHQWHFRQPHQRVGHSXQWRVHQ
HO%06PRVWUyPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQD$XQTXHHQ
EDVHDHVWRSRGUtDVXJHULUVHTXHpVWHHVXQPHMRU
SXQWRGHFRUWHQRGHEHROYLGDUVHTXHHQXQDH[
WHQVDYDOLGDFLyQGHOPpWRGRVXUJHXQSXQWRGH
FRUWHPiVEDMR”DQWHHOULHVJRGHQRLGHQWLIL
$UFK$UJHQW3HGLDWU$UWtFXORRULJLQDO
FDUDGHFXDGDPHQWHSDFLHQWHVTXHGHEDQUHTXHULU
DQWLELyWLFRV/DVGLIHUHQFLDVHQFRQWUDGDVHQWUH
QXHVWURWUDEDMR\ORVGH1LJURYLFSRGUtDQGHEHU
VHDOPHQRUWDPDxRGHQXHVWUDPXHVWUD/RYHU
GDGHUDPHQWHLPSRUWDQWHHVTXHQLQJ~QSDFLHQWH
FRQSXQWRVHQHO%06WDQWRHQQXHVWURWUDEDMR
FRPRHQORVGH1LJURYLFSUHVHQWyPHQLQJLWLVEDF
WHULDQDORFXDOGHPRVWUyTXHHVWHHVXQQLYHODE
VROXWDPHQWHVHJXURSDUDFODVLILFDUDORVSDFLHQWHV
1RGHEHROYLGDUVHTXHQXHVWURHVWXGLRSUHWHQ
GtDYDORUDUHOGHVHPSHxRGHO%06HQQXHVWUDSR
EODFLyQ\TXHORVSDFLHQWHVLQGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWH
GHODLQYHVWLJDFLyQIXHURQWUDWDGRVVHJ~QORVFUL
WHULRVGHODLQVWLWXFLyQUHFLELHQGRDQWLELyWLFRVHQ
VXPD\RUSDUWH
(O%06SRVHHOLPLWDFLRQHVTXHGHEHQVHUWHQL
GDVHQFXHQWD3RUXQODGRHVWHSXQWDMHKDVLGR
GLVHxDGRSDUDVHUHPSOHDGRHQSDFLHQWHVVLQWUD
WDPLHQWRDQWLELyWLFRSUHYLRKHFKRTXHQRVLHPSUH
IUHFXHQWHHQODSUiFWLFDGLDULD6XHPSOHRWDPSR
FRUHVROYHUtDHOFDVRGHDTXHOODVPHQLQJLWLVDVpS
WLFDVTXHSRUVXJUDYHGDGPHQLQJRHQFHIDOLWLV
KHUSpWLFDUHTXLHUHQLQWHUQDFLyQ\WUDWDPLHQWR
)LQDOPHQWHSRGUtDFULWLFDUVHODQRLQFOXVLyQ
GHODJOXFRUUDTXLDFRPRXQRGHORVFRPSRQHQWHV
GHO%06SHURQRGHEHROYLGDUVHTXHVXFDSDFL
GDGGLDJQyVWLFDIXHFRQVLGHUDGD\GHVFDUWDGDHQ
ODHODERUDFLyQGHHVWDUHJODGHSUHGLFFLyQ
(OWDPDxRGHQXHVWUDPXHVWUDHVVXILFLHQWH
SDUDHYLGHQFLDUODVHQVLELOLGDGFRPXQLFDGDHQHO
WUDEDMRRULJLQDOSHURSRGUtDPRVWUDUOLPLWDFLyQ
DODKRUDGHGHPRVWUDUXQDHVSHFLILFLGDGGHLJXDO
PDJQLWXG6LQHPEDUJRQRGHEHROYLGDUVHTXH
SRUWUDWDUVHGHXQDSUXHEDGHWDPL]DMHSDUDGHFL
GLUTXLpQQRUHTXLHUHDQWLELyWLFRVORIXQGDPHQWDO
HVHOYDORUTXHDUURMDVXVHQVLELOLGDG
(QQXHVWURHVWXGLRHO%06HYLGHQFLyXQDVHQ
VLELOLGDGSDUDSUHGHFLUPHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDVL
PLODUDODGHODGHVFULSFLyQRULJLQDOD~QHQXQD
SREODFLyQGRQGHODFREHUWXUDGHYDFXQDFLyQDQWL
QHXPRFyFLFDHVVHJXUDPHQWHPX\EDMD
$SHVDUGHORVUHVXOWDGRVREWHQLGRVVHGHEH
UHFRUGDUTXHHO%06FRQVWLWX\HD~QXQDUHJOD
GHSUHGLFFLyQSRUORTXHVXHPSOHRHQODSUiFWL
FDGLDULDVyORSRGUiJHQHUDOL]DUVHFXDQGRVHHV
WDEOH]FDFRPR5HJOD&OtQLFDGH'HFLVLyQOXHJR
GHXQHVWXGLRFOtQLFRFRQWURODGRTXHGHPXHV
WUHVXHILFDFLD
&21&/86,Ð1
(O%06IXHIiFLOGHFDOFXODU\SHUPLWLyLGHQWLIL
FDUDGHFXDGDPHQWHDORVSDFLHQWHVFRQPHQLQJLWLV
TXHQRVHEHQHILFLDUtDQFRQHOXVRGHDQWLELyWLFRV
$JUDGHFLPLHQWRV
$ORV6HUYLFLRVGH/DERUDWRULR\3URPRFLyQ\
3URWHFFLyQGHOD6DOXGGHO+RVSLWDO*HQHUDOGH1L
xRV´3HGURGH(OL]DOGHµSRUVXFRODERUDFLyQHQOD
REWHQFLyQGHGDWRVGHORVSDFLHQWHV„
%,%/,2*5$)Ì$
$EDWH+$SUD(%DUURV)HWDO0RUELPRUWDOLGDGGHODV
PHQLQJLWLVEDFWHULDQDVLQIDQWLOHVQRQHRQDWDOHV$UFK$U
JHQW3HGLDWU
'DYHQSRUW0&'HO9DOOH03*DOOHJRV3HWDO0HQLQJLWLV
EDFWHULDQDIDFWRUHVGHULHVJRSDUDHOGHVDUUROORGHFRPSOL
FDFLRQHVDJXGDV$UFK$UJHQW3HGLDWU
*ULPZRRG.$QGHUVRQ3$QGHUVRQ9HWDO7ZHOYH\HDU
RXWFRPHVIROORZLQJEDFWHULDOPHQLQJLWLVIXUWKHUHYLGHQFH
IRUSHUVLVWLQJHIIHFWV$UFK'LV&KLOG
)UHHGPDQ6%0DUURFFR$3LULH-'LFN373UHGLFWRUVRI
EDFWHULDOPHQLQJLWLVLQWKHHUDDIWHU+,QIOXHQ]DH$UFK3H
GLDWU$GROHVF0HG
2RVWHQEULQN50RRQV.*7ZLMQVWUD0-HWDO&KLOGUHQZLWK
PHQLQJHDOVLJQVSUHGLFWLQJZKRQHHGVHPSLULFDQWLELRWLF
WUHDWPHQW$UFK3HGLDWU$GROHVF0HG
-DHJHU)/HUR\-'XFKHQQH)HWDO9DOLGDWLRQRIDGLDJ
QRVLVPRGHOIRUGLIIHUHQWLDWLQJEDFWHULDOIURPYLUDOPHQLQ
JLWLVLQLQIDQWVDQGFKLOGUHQXQGHU\HDUVRIDJH(XU-
&OLQ0LFURELRO,QIHFW'LV
%RQVX%.+DUSHU0%'LIIHUHQWLDWLQJDFXWHEDFWHULDOPH
QLQJLWLVIURPDFXWHYLUDOPHQLQJLWLVDPRQJFKLOGUHQZLWK
FHUHEURVSLQDOIOXLGSOHRF\WRVLVDPXOWLYDULDEOHUHJUHVVLRQ
PRGHO3HGLDWU,QIHFW'LV-
1LJURYLF/(.XSSHUPDQQ10DOOH\5'HYHORSPHQWDQG
YDOLGDWLRQRIDPXOWLYDULDEOHSUHGLFWLYHPRGHOWRGLVWLQ
JXLVKEDFWHULDOIURPDVHSWLFPHQLQJLWLVLQFKLOGUHQLQWKH
SRVW+LQIOXHQ]DH(UD3HGLDWULFV
+ULVWHYD/%RZOHU,%RR\5HWDO9DOXHRIFHUHEURVSL
QDOIOXLGH[DPLQDWLRQLQWKHGLDJQRVLVRIPHQLQJLWLVRIWKH
QHZERUQ$UFK'LV&KLOG
6DWR<2KWD<+RQGD<HWDO'LDJQRVWLFYDOXHRIDW\SL
FDOO\PSKRF\WHVLQFHUHEURVSLQDOIOXLGIURPDGXOWVZLWK
HQWHURYLUDOPHQLQJLWLV-1HXURO
'XQEDU6$(DVRQ5$0XVKHU'0HWDO0LFURVFRSLFH[D
PLQDWLRQDQGEURWKFXOWXUHRIFHUHEURVSLQDOIOXLGLQGLDJ
QRVLVRIPHQLQJLWLV-&OLQ0LFURELRO
1HJULQL%.HOOHKHU.-:DOG(5&HUHEURVSLQDOIOXLGILQ
GLQJV LQ DVHSWLF YHUVXV EDFWHULDO PHQLQJLWLV 3HGLDWULFV
/DXSDFLV$6HNDU16WLHOO,*&OLQLFDOSUHGLFWLRQUXOHV
DUHYLHZDQGVXJJHVWHGPRGLILFDWLRQVRIPHWKRGRORJLFDO
VWDQGDUGV-$0$
'XERV)/DPRWWH%%LEL7ULNL)HWDO&OLQLFDOGHFLVLRQ
UXOHVWRGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQEDFWHULDODQGDVHSWLFPHQLQ
JLWLV$UFK'LV&KLOG
1LJURYLF/.XSSHUPDQQ10DFLDV&HWDO&OLQLFDOSUH
GLFWLRQ UXOH IRU LGHQWLI\LQJ FKLOGUHQ ZLWK FHUHEURVSLQDO
IOXLGSOHRF\WRFLVDWYHU\ORZULVNRIEDFWHULDOPHQLQJLWLV
-$0$
:DVVRQ-+6R[+&1HII5.HWDO&OLQLFDOSUHGLFWLRQUX
OHVDSSOLFDWLRQVDQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOVWDQGDUGV1(QJO-
0HG
0LQLVWHULRGH6DOXG&DOHQGDULR1DFLRQDOGH9DFXQDFLyQ
GHOD5HS~EOLFD$UJHQWLQD>&RQVXOWDGHIHEUHURGH@
'LVSRQLEOHHQKWWSZZZPVDOJRYDUKWPVLWHYDFX
QDBFDODVS
5HLOO\%0(YDQV$77UDQVODWLQJFOLQLFDOUHVHDUFKLQWRFOL
QLFDOSUDFWLFHLPSDFWRIXVLQJSUHGLFWLRQVUXOHVWRPDNH
GHFLVLRQV$QQ,QWHUQ0HG