Surviving A Volatile Environment with the Help of Peer Groups
Anuncio
2/22/2016 Surviving A Volatile Environment with the Help of Peer Groups David Hughes CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA CREA NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL Group Members ‐ SLO Own acreage Leased acreage Crop Cattle TOTAL ACREAGE Crop Has Leased Crop Has Total Agric Has. Intensidad Sec. 4 6 9 10 2353 2.252 905 2.598 1.817 122 1.626 1.217 691 2353 2.252 52 25 957 2.720 3.443 1.217 1674 1155 1155 696 52 748 2142 122 2264 916 1626 2542 1,33 1,34 1,37 1,43 682 30% 192 21% 200 8% 940 52% 1674 1,33 Cattle land % of owned acreage Services 3 550 23% Planter Spayer Combine Silos Trucks Planter Sprayer 14 16 17 5.133 2.935 has 5.824 2.935 has has has 2671 691 3362 1435 1.217 1217 1,68 1,26 1,61 2784 54% 793 27% 1435 has has has has Planter Sprayer Combine Silos Trucks 1 2/22/2016 CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA CREA NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL Crea Seguí – la Oriental 2014-15 • Owned acreage • Leased acreage • Total acreage • Owned cropland • Leased cropland • Owned cattle acreage 17.994 has 4.405 has 21,870 has 10.862 has 4.405 has 6.106 has CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA CREA NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL 2 2/22/2016 Crea Seguí – La Oriental Group´s Mision statement 2002 y 2012 Seek the growth of its members, both as business men and as persons Sharing, exchanging and debating ideas, experiences and knowledge In a motivating environment, with respect, trust, humility and sincerity CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA CREA NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL Crea Seguí – La Oriental The result of each meeting is a reflection of each members responsability in providing information, and discussion CREA Method • • • • Writen valuations at end of each meeting, and analisis at year end Moderator rotates, each meeting a different one Secretary rotates, each meeting a different one Extended and relaxed exchange of new issues (weather, crops, purchases, etc), witha previous exchange on hard numbers • What we cannot do as individuals, we try to do as a group. • What we cannot do as a group we try to do as a Region • What we cannot do as a Region we try to do as an organization CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA CREA NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL 3 2/22/2016 CREA Groups in North Buenos Aires Region 9 CREA Groups (+ 1 Group in Formation) 75 CREA Members 115.000 has. in Total 90.000 has. in agriculture 25.000 has. in beef production Production – Crop Average yields Trigo 4833 Cebada 4750 Averages 09/10 to 13/14 Colza 1336 Arveja 2478 In Kgs/ha (= lbs/acre) Soja 2 s/Trigo 2460 Soja 2 s/Cebada 2650 Soja 2 s/Colza 2883 Soja 2 s/Arveja 3007 Maíz temprano 8870 Maíz tardío 9451 Soja 1ra 3745 CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA CREA NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL 4 2/22/2016 Some examples of information generated and how we use it CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA CREA NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL SOYBEAN Historical yields (blue line) in kgs/ha acreage (columns) in hectares 500 0 10, 000 4401 Superficie total 450 0 9,0 00 3893 RENDIMIENTO MEDIO 3559 3478 400 0 3174 3226 3160 350 0 300 0 3802 3922 4010 3648 3575 3548 3470 3775 8,0 00 7,0 00 2858 2851 2836 2673 6,0 00 2198 250 0 5,0 00 200 0 4,0 00 1388 6,197 150 0 3,689 3,425 100 0 2,404 500 0 577 539 445 791 796 1,243 4,206 4,526 5,305 5,094 4,725 2,960 2,396 3,400 4,392 3,0 00 5,163 1,990 2,0 00 1,0 00 0 94/5 95/6 96/7 97/8 98/9 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 5 2/22/2016 Climate for Junín 2014‐15 – For Soybean 26 Radiación (Mj/m2) 28 24 T e m p M e d ia °C 26 22 20 18 16 T x historica T x campaña 14 PC Soja 2° PC Soja1° Rad Histórica 24 22 20 18 16 12 Rad Capaña PC Soja 1° PC Soja 2° 2 0 /3 1 0 /3 2 9 /2 2 0 /2 1 0 /2 3 1 /1 2 0 /1 1 0 /1 3 1 /1 2 2 0 /1 2 1 0 /1 2 3 0 /1 1 2 0 /1 1 1 0 /1 1 14 31/12 10/1 20/1 31/1 10/2 20/2 29/2 10/3 20/3 31/3 Fecha Fecha 1 Ind Estres 0.9 Ind Estrés CL 0.8 Ind Estrés CC 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Ind X en PC CL=0.89 Ind X en PC CC=0.98 0.3 Junín 0.2 0.1 Field tests ZNBA Disease control in Full season Soybean 10 year average 27-2 24-2 21-2 18-2 15-2 9-2 12-2 6-2 3-2 31-1 28-1 25-1 22-1 19-1 16-1 13-1 10-1 7-1 4-1 1-1 0 with Symptoms in R3 w/o Symptoms in R3 Average response 296 kg/ha 120 kg/ha Economic Response 97% de los casos 62% de los casos 1 COSTO 0.9 Probabilidad % 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Escenario S/ Enferm R3-R4 0.3 Escenario C/ Enferm R3-R4 Rta Gral 0.2 0.1 0 -50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 Respuesta Rinde (kg/ha) 6 2/22/2016 Field Tests of planting dates Crea S‐LO 2002‐03 Niño year DM 4800 20 Sept vs 20 Oct vs 10 Nov EQ 35 cm Los Toldos 52 cm Sept 3720 3501 Oct 4001 4390 4000 3501 3000 3720 Nov 52 cm 4760 0 35 cm 52 cm Oct Nov 6157 5134 6000 LE Junín 35 cm 1000 8000 Oct 5134 5050 4001 2000 Sept Sept 6157 5188 4760 4390 5000 Nov 5188 4000 5305 5050 5305 35 cm 52 cm 2000 0 Sept 8000 LM Segui 35 cm 52 cm Sept 6320 5768 Oct 5469 5415 6320 6000 Nov 4000 4974 5768 Oct Nov 5469 5415 4974 35 cm 2000 52 cm 0 Sept Oct Nov Field tests of planting dates Crea S‐LO 2004‐05 Niño year DM 4800 20 Sept vs 20 Oct vs 10 Nov 4600 4482 4200 LL Rojas‐Junín 35 cm 52 cm Sept 4482 4304 Oct 4345 4201 Nov 4065 4201 4000 4065 3800 5000 4000 35 cm 52 cm Sept 3600 3723 Oct 4266 4564 Nov 4604 52 cm 4304 Sept SJ Rawson 35 cm 4345 4400 3000 3723 Oct Nov 4564 4604 4266 3600 2000 35 cm 1000 52 cm 0 Sept Oct 4500 LE Junín 35 cm 52 cm Sept 3707 3836 Oct 3460 3883 Nov 4107 4000 3500 3836 3707 3000 Sept 3883 Nov 4107 35 cm 3460 Oct 52 cm Nov 7 2/22/2016 Budgeted Direct Costs Corn & Soybean IMPLANTAC Labores Semilla Curasemilla Insecticidas Herbicidas Fungicidas c/aplic P N Seguros Monitoreo Soybean 80 23 8 18 80 20 30 Late Corn 86 158 6 67 38 54 88 22 91 38 48 56 22 303 549 498 80 383 90 639 90 588 22 8 Cosecha TOTAl 800 Early Corn 80 158 ISO Gross Margins Maíz – Soja 1 2015‐16 SOJA 250 SOJA 240 700 MZ TEMP 160 SOJA 230 SOJA 220, 5.5 600 MZ TEMP 150 SOJA 210 SOJA 200 500 MZ TEMP 140 SOJA 190 400 MZ TEMP 130 300 MZ TEMP 120 200 MZ TEMP 110 100 MZ TEMP 100 0 3 ‐100 3.5 GM USD/Ha 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 Yields ton/ha ‐200 ‐300 8 2/22/2016 SLO ‐ Niño year and Early Corn yields 12.0 Tempr RINDE 9.6 10.0 7.9 8.0 6.7 7.2 6.9 5.7 6.0 8.4 7.4 8.2 7.2 6.3 10.6 10.0 9.1 9.2 9.1 10.1 9.0 8.3 8.8 6.1 6.2 8.5 6.4 4.0 3.7 2.0 0.0 SLO – Late Corn and Soybean indexed yields ÍNDICE ‐ Años Niño y Niña 140 120 100 80 60 40 Mz TARD Soja 1 20 0 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/8 08/9 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 9 2/22/2016 Late Corn yields and Soybean yields Corn yields kgs/ha Soybean yields Kgs/ha Rendimiento ‐ Años Niño y Niña 12000 5000 4500 10000 4000 3500 8000 3000 6000 2500 2000 4000 1500 Mz Tard 1000 Soja 1 2000 500 0 0 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/8 08/9 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 SLO – Early Corn yields and soybean yields Corn yields kgs/ha Soybean yields Kgs/ha 5000 Años Niño y Niña 12000 4500 10000 4000 3500 8000 3000 6000 2500 2000 4000 1500 Mz Tempr 1000 Soja 1 2000 500 0 0 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/8 08/9 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 10 2/22/2016 Genotipo ‐ Ambiente Field Tests Early Corn Crea – North Buenos Ares Region ZNBA 2014‐15 14000 13000 12000 DK 7210 VT3Pro DK7310 VT3Pro 11000 DM 2738 MGRR Syn 969 TdTg Dow M505 PW 10000 Dow M507 PW Lt626 VT3Pro Ax 7761 Tdmax 9000 DK 7250 VT3Pro Syn 840 TdTg Arv 2489 MGRR 8000 P 1778 YR Lt 719 VT3Pro SRM 566 MGRR 7000 KM 4500 TdTg Ax 7822 Tdmax 6000 7500 8500 9500 10500 Field Tests Late Corn Crea – North Buenos Aires Region ‐ ZNBA 2014‐15 11500 12500 13500 Genotipo ‐ Ambiente 12500 12000 11500 11000 10500 DK 7210 VT3Pro 10000 Dow M505 PW Ax 7822 Tdmax 9500 Lt626 VT3Pro Lt 719 VT3Pro 9000 Syn 900 Vip3 DK 7210 VT3Pro DK7310 VT3Pro Dow M505 PW Ax 7822 Tdmax Lt626 VT3Pro Lt 719 VT3Pro DK 7250 VT3Pro DM 2771 VT3Pro Syn 900 Vip3 Dow M507 PW Arv 2155 HxRR Ax 887 HCLMG P 1778 YR Syn 840 TdTg P 1780 HR SRM 553 MGRR r2 95 61 98 97 89 99 85 63 98 99 82 30 84 91 83 96 Dow M507 PW 8500 Syn 840 TdTg SRM 553 MGRR 8000 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 11 2/22/2016 14000 Early Corn 12000 Field Tests North Buenos Aires 10000 Region ‐ ZNBA Last 3 years Linear (AX 7822 TDMax) 8000 Linear (DK 7210 VT3Pro) Linear (LT 626 VT3Pro) Linear (DM 2738 MG) 6000 Linear (SRM 566 MG) 4000 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 10500 11500 12500 14500 105 10425 10018 101 10010 101 97 9639 96 9527 DK 7210 VT3Pro 13500 DM 2738 MG LT 626 VT3Pro SRM 566 MG AX 7822 TDMax DK 7210 VT3Pro DM 2738 MG LT 626 VT3Pro SRM 566 MG AX 7822 TDMax 13500 12500 Late Corn Crea – Field Tests data of 3 years North Buenos Aires Region ‐ ZNBA 11500 10500 9500 8500 7500 8500 12 9000 11.3 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 109 105 10.4 100 100 10.1 10 10000 110 11 11 9500 9.8 10 97 94 95 90 9 DK 7210 VT3ProDM 2771 VT3ProNK 900 Viptera3 Arv 2155 Hx 85 DK 7210 VT3Pro DM 2771 VT3Pro NK 900 Viptera3 Arv 2155 Hx 12 2/22/2016 11429 11526 11034 11314 10869 11183 10686 RENDIMIENTO Maicero ‐ NBA North Buenos Aires Region with University of Buenos Aires 9235 8934 8415 8159 Economic response to Nitrogen fertilizer 15 8652 10270 9696 9807 9899 9974 10030 10068 9255 9567 9072 9420 8871 9787 9519 10487 10037 7005 7205 7252 7290 7318 7336 7345 6823 7148 6718 7081 6603 6919 6479 5363 5554 5599 5636 5663 5682 5692 5191 5499 5091 5435 4983 5281 4865 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 CC Mod Húm Seco Napa 160 170 180 190 200 80% 13 73% 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 60% MARGEN BRUTO ESPERADO 500 13 60% 400 48% 10 9 40% 300 36% 8 24% 6 346 336 324 311 354 361 367 372 375 376 376 375 372 368 277 275 272 268 261 254 244 65 56 47 37 26 14 246 255 262 268 273 276 277 104 102 99 95 91 86 79 200 20% 5 4 12% 3 100 ‐1% 73 0% 1 0 0 0 80 ‐13% 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 70 ‐33 ‐20% ‐2 ‐100 ‐25% 80 ‐35 ‐3 ‐37% Benef Marg ‐5 ‐40% ‐5 Costo Marg ‐200 ‐50% ‐6 Tasa Marg ‐60% ‐62% 90 ‐39 100 ‐43 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 ‐48 ‐53 ‐60 ‐67 ‐75 ‐83 ‐93 ‐103 ‐114 ‐125 CC Mod Húm Seco Napa ‐8 ‐10 ‐80% Corn Crea S‐ LO 12,000 Yield in kgs/ha Acreage in hectares Early Corn Acreage Temp SUP Late Corn Acreage Tardío SUP 10,000 9,600 Tardío RINDE Late Corn Yield 8,811 8,576 8,754 7,399 8,454 7,159 6,257 6,091 5,723 6,000 10,148 9,795 9,753 9,433 8,988 8,265 8,159 7,885 7,196 6,914 6,675 9,702 9,111 9,158 9,121 8,425 8,000 10,618 10,364 9,989 Tempr RINDE Early Corn Yield 6,437 6,220 6,376 4,000 2,953 2,767 2,692 2,487 2,154 1,996 1,757 1,585 857 1,338 06/07 05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01 99/00 98/9 97/8 96/7 95/6 94/5 93/4 92/3 91/2 90/1 0 07/8 357 768 927 2,054 1,956 1,927 14/15 1,175 13/14 964 1,393 11/12 758 1,972 1,284 10/11 702 1,609 1,810 1,286 08/9 447 2,078 1,760 09/10 298 1,203 1,876 12/13 2,000 3,746 2,985 13 2/22/2016 Corn Planting ‐ Early and Late planting 100% 16% 90% 30% 80% 34% 45% 40% 70% 44% 49% 56% 51% 13/14 14/15 62% 60% 50% 84% 40% 70% 30% 66% 55% 60% 20% 38% 10% 0% 07/8 08/9 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 LATE Planting EARLY Planting Wheat & Double Crop Soybean Yields – Kgs/ha 6500 5,702 6000 5500 4,924 5000 5,116 4,594 4,480 4500 5,509 5,331 4,967 4,084 4000 3500 3,198 3,126 Wheat 3,032 3000 2500 2000 / 3500 / / / / 3050 / / / / / / / 2969 3000 2517 2670 2736 2516 2485 2500 2326 2285 2317 09/10 10/11 11/12 2000 1500 Double crop soybean 1000 818 500 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 14 2/22/2016 Nitrogen in wheat MODELOS DE SIMULACIÓN SERIE ROJAS Rendimiento esperado en Trigo 80% PROBABILIDAD 7000 6500 Rendimiento 6000 Capac de campo 5985 5874 5945 4615 4645 4655 4564 3894 3914 3918 3856 5775 5647 5500 5489 5302 5085 5000 4840 70% agua útil 4565 4500 4261 4493 4401 4289 4156 4000 4002 Seco 3801 3828 3633 3729 3639 3532 3500 3408 3266 3108 3000 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Kg N Disponible Capac de Campo 70% agua útil 600 500 401 400 300 456 431 477 494 Suelo seco a la siembra 507 515 518 518 513 503 306 320 331 338 342 344 342 337 329 318 304 228 236 241 244 245 243 238 231 221 208 193 80 90 140 150 160 170 180 200 u$s/ton 200 100 0 EXPECTED Gross Margin 600 with 500 different 400 prices of 300 wheat and 200 different N 100 rates 0 100 110 284 207 143 80 306 216 147 90 120 130 agua útil Kg N70% Disponible Capac de campo Suelo seco a la siembra 324 339 350 357 361 361 357 350 340 221 148 225 225 223 219 212 203 148 146 191 141 134 176 125 114 101 86 140 150 160 170 180 100 110 120 130 agua útil Kg N70% Disponible Capac de campo 170 u$s/ton Suelo seco a la siembra 600 500 140 u$s/ton 400 300 200 100 168 108 58 181 111 57 80 90 192 200 205 207 206 203 197 188 176 112 55 111 52 108 46 103 39 96 30 88 20 77 8 64 49 100 110 120 130 Kg N Disponible 70% agua útil 140 150 160 170 180 0 Capac de campo Suelo seco 15 2/22/2016 PHOSPHORUS IN WHEAT RtoRelativo(%) 100 Umbral de P de suficiencia Field Tests – ZNBA 7 years data 90 80 Y=54.1+3.5*X Si X≤13) R²=0.59 70 60 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 P total ppm Para Suelo Aplicar Dosis de P de suficiencia 4 116 6 101 8 87 10 72 12 58 14 43 ppm kg MAP 5500 MAP 120 P offered affects N applied Ensayos ZNBA – 4 years of data Rinde (kg/h 5000 MAP 80 4500 MAP 40 4000 3500 60 80 100 120 NTotal (kg/ha) 0-60 140 160 180 History of Niño‐Niña in SLO Yields in Kgs/ha Information For budgeting (Crea S‐LO Evaluaciones) 2002‐3 2003‐4 2004‐5 2005‐6 2006‐7 2007‐8 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 Wheat 3274 4242 4440 4966 3027 3950 3983 Niño Soy 2nd crop 3068 2624 2711 Wheat Niña Soy 2nd Crop 5094 4440 5510 2718 2711 2813 5716 5188 2304 2262 5190 2562 3010 2128 ? 2708 16 2/22/2016 Soja 2nd Crop Variables 10/11 11/12 105 95 88 115 110 99 109 95 1ra Nov 2da Nov 3ra Nov 1ra Dic 2da Dic 3ra Dic 1ra Ene Planting Dates Per Índex Difference in Kg/ha for every 10 days Difference in Kg/ha for each day late planted 12/13 124 115 120 112 102 89 86 3ra Nov 1ra Dic 2da Dic 3ra Dic 1ra Ene 12/13 ‐94 ‐212 ‐287 ‐359 ‐84 3ra Nov 1ra Dic 2da Dic 3ra Dic 1ra Ene 12/13 ‐9 ‐21 ‐29 ‐36 ‐8 13/14 14/15 119 111 98 95 96 114 108 96 13/14 ‐250 ‐401 ‐58 13/14 ‐25 ‐40 ‐6 Prom 124 117 115 107 99 97 90 14/15 Prom ‐172 ‐304 ‐226 ‐359 ‐84 ‐300 ‐334 14/15 Prom ‐17 ‐30 ‐23 ‐36 ‐8 ‐30 ‐33 400 0 SLO 10, 000 3585 Superficie total Rend Medio 350 0 9,0 00 3050 2723 300 0 Soy as 2nd Crop 2969 2411 2158 2226 250 0 2517 2670 2516 8,0 00 2795 2485 2613 7,0 00 2326 2285 2317 6,0 00 2009 200 0 5,0 00 1502 1454 4,0 00 150 0 862 818 3,0 00 100 0 3,112 500 1,065 1,212 887 1,389 1,208 1,050 1,782 2,230 2,880 2,941 3,574 4,195 3,416 3,088 2,039 2,0 00 3,484 2,127 1,795 2,822 3,153 1,0 00 0 0 94/5 95/6 4,000 3,500 96/7 97/8 98/9 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 3,621 RENDIMIENTOS S/PROPIO RENDIMIENTO CAMPO DE TERCEROS 3,068 3,000 2,990 2,985 2,624 2,711 2,718 3,010 2,823 2,953 2,944 2,500 3,022 2,304 2,330 2,358 2,262 2,573 2,351 2,000 2,225 2,168 1,500 3,471 2,624 2,447 2,128 945 1,000 500 688 0 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/7 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 13/14 17 2/22/2016 Avge Returns on whole farm business Resultado Final (u$s/ha) Y Rentabilidad 900 10.0% 8.0% 7.7% 8.0% 700 6.5% 5.9% 4.1% 5.3% 500 4.5% 3.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 1.4% 3.1% 6.0% 4.0% 2.2% 300 1.2% 1.3% 2.0% 100 56 94/5 181 97 117 89 95/6 96/7 97/8 98/9 34 99/00 00/01 01/02 293 270 156 260 345 491 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/7 07/8 08/9 -176 287 348 261 165 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 0.0% -100 -2.0% -2.8% -300 -4.0% RESULTADO FINAL 38 RENTABILIDAD FINAL 18
